Commentary

When Would It Be Ok To Start Cutting Rates, and by How Much?

Our forecast for the federal funds rate has the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting to cut rates in July 2024, with a second rate cut before the end of 2024.

Commentary

Recapping November’s Key Market Events

For much of 2023, the market has tried to anticipate a Fed pivot – only to be wrongfooted several times. However, sharply higher interest rates, cooling inflation pressures and moderating wages have the market convinced that the Fed’s current tightening cycle is over.

Commentary

Bond Market Perspective

Drew O'Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.

Commentary

Recurring Fiscal Deficits and the Consequences

Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.

Commentary

October CPI Inflation: Just What the Dr. Recommended

October news on CPI inflation was all the doctor recommended and has markets spinning and repricing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential path forward.

Commentary

5 Financial-Related Dynamics We’re Grateful For

Following the surge in inflation, the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle since the 1980s and multi-decade lows in business and consumer confidence, calls for a U.S. recession have been prevalent all year.

Commentary

Inflation Is Decelerating... Its Effects on Consumers Are Not

We understand that many economists/analysts/market participants are already discounting inflation as a serious problem for the U.S. economy. Even if this seems correct on the surface, the problem is very different for those who suffer the most from higher prices – middle- and lower-income individuals.

Commentary

Key Takeaways as Earnings Season Winds Down

Good news – the earnings recession is over! After three consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth, 3Q S&P 500 earnings are on pace to climb 5% YoY. If sustained, this would be the best quarter of earnings growth since 2Q22.

Commentary

Keeping It Real

The 2- through 30-year Treasuries rallied hard to drop yields from 12 to 18 basis points. By example, the 10-year Treasury price bottomed out at $91.86 (4.93%) and peaked at $95.25 (4.48%). This is a 3.4-point price swing or 45 basis point drop in yield.

Commentary

Add “Persistently High” to “Higher for Longer”

After the October/November meeting, it seems that Fed officials have an added objective, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the press conference that they needed to see interest rates “persistently high.”

Commentary

Interest Rates Hold Steady Following Latest FOMC Meeting

The Federal Reserve (Fed) elected to not raise the federal funds rate at the October/November 2023 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Commentary

Has the Fed’s Tightening Cycle Reached the Finish Line?

While 3Q23 growth showed the economy expanded at a 4.9% annualized rate, it is important to remember that the GDP report is backward-looking.

Commentary

Unrealized

Yields are at some of their highest levels in over a decade. This means that if you own fixed income in your portfolio, there is a good chance that you are seeing unrealized losses on your monthly statements (fixed income math = yields higher, prices lower).

Commentary

Strong GDP Growth in Q3 Could Become a Threat to Monetary Policy

Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.

Commentary

Five Reasons We Remain Optimistic on Equities

Much like Halloween, it has been a scary time for investors.