Social Security does face challenges. The trust fund reserves, built up during years when payroll taxes exceeded payouts, are projected to run dry around 2033. If Congress does nothing, benefits will need to be cut by about 20%. That’s serious, but it’s a solvency issue, not a scam.
The sole pursuit of shareholder value — i.e. of maximizing stock price — leads not to a focus on creating the greatest possible value for the firm’s customers, but to a focus on financial metrics and financial engineering.
In this article, I will discuss another advantage of using the actuarial approach for retirement planning — helping your clients determine when they can afford to make big-ticket item purchases.
Tax planning for high-income earners isn’t about loopholes; it’s about leveraging the strategies available to you.
Many retirees hold substantial assets in traditional IRAs and taxable brokerage accounts. When planning for retirement income and considering your legacy, Roth IRA conversions can be a strategic way to reduce your tax burden and maximize the wealth you pass on to your heirs.
Risk-assets struggled amidst extremely volatile price action as investors weighed the probabilities of tariffs hitting profits and valuations.
A tax-advantaged account offers certain tax benefits to encourage individuals to save or invest for specific purposes, such as retirement, education or healthcare. These accounts can help you lower your taxable income, defer taxes or avoid taxes altogether if used for qualified expenses.
Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam notes with volatility on the rise, maintaining a long-term view is key.
Tax filing season may be over for many, but tax planning is an important focus year-round. Consider post-tax season strategies including optimizing deductions or adjusting retirement contributions. Our Bill Cass shares some tax planning ideas to consider.
Practically every financial meltdown or crisis can be traced back to a misunderstanding of which assets are “risk-free.” Investors think they have a risk-free asset — it could be a mortgage-backed security, shares in a Bernie Madoff fund, Greek debt — and are surprised when it turns out not to be.
No matter what form of compensation you take, it is impossible to eliminate “conflicts” to the extent assumed by the proponents of a new fiduciary standard.
If the US slides into recession, banks will be ready – at least according to commentary on their earnings calls last week.
These are scary times. No surprise, the typical advice is to stay the course — that it will all work out fine — but those near retirement should take heed.
As we have learned repeatedly, the Fed will take extensive emergency measures if it perceives liquidity problems. Even above their congressional mandated objective of managing employment and prices, the Fed's top priority is preserving the banks.
The first quarter of 2025 marked a significant departure from the preceding two years, which had been characterized by an improving global economy and correspondingly positive market returns. Market performance in Q1 was dominated by abrupt, short-term policy shifts rather than longer-term economic trends, and tariffs became the foremost concern for market participants.
Less favorable seasonal technicals, increased focus on municipal-specific policy risks, and severe volatility spurred by higher-than-anticipated tariff increases weighed heavilyon sentiment and resulted in deeply negative total returns and significant underperformance versus Treasuries in March and early April.
LPL Financial LLC announced today that financial advisor Steve Jones of Tenacity Investment Group has joined LPL Financial’s broker-dealer, Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) and custodial platforms.
While we remain open to changes in market conditions, as well as periodic “fast, furious, prone-to-failure” advances that can relieve the oversold “compression” produced by market losses, we are presently on high alert for a possibly abrupt and cascading market and economic dislocation in the weeks ahead.
One of the most volatile market weeks in years was sparked by tariff announcements earlier this month. President Donald Trump's 10% universal tariff went into effect on April 5th, followed by his controversial reciprocal tariffs on April 9th.
As homeowner insurance rates rise, advisors share ways individuals can create a financial safety net should catastrophe impact their homes.
Now that the stock market has momentarily stabilized from the shock of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, investors have an opportunity to reflect on how their portfolio held up during the past two turbulent weeks.
Navigating market volatility can be challenging for investors. Our Bill Cass shares several tax planning strategies to consider.
While we continue to feel the U.S. has structural investment advantages, we are mindful that the scope of the current administration's policy shifts may present challenges to our sustained economic momentum.
The current market unrest over the potential for tariff increases and their impact is unpredictable. The volatility can be unnerving.
The "Connelly case "is more than just a legal precedent; it is a call to action for business owners to reevaluate their succession plans and take the necessary steps to protect their interests.
This month’s roller-coaster ride through the markets has been more frightening than exhilarating for many Americans, who have more than $44 trillion invested in retirement accounts.
Portfolio rebalancing helps advisors uncover a new investment plan of action that aligns with a client's long-term financial milestones. It also considers how the current market will impact asset diversification.
Some of the reasons, but not the only ones, why our trade deficits are so large is because government expenditures are too high and/or we are not collecting enough taxes.
On the evening before his presentation at the Exchange Conference last week, I sat down with Rob Arnott to discuss whether now is the time for smart beta to shine. Arnott is the founder and chair of Research Affiliates and is known as the “godfather of smart beta.”
This may be the beginning of the long-awaited U.S. stock market crash, but even if it isn’t those near retirement need to protect themselves from sequence-of-return risk that can ruin the rest of their lives.
As with all decisions involving uncertainty, we want to find the answer which maximizes your expected risk-adjusted return, not your base-case or expected return. This means that we have to go beyond the industry standard and explicitly account for risk in our analysis.
After starting the year on a high note with the S&P 500 index of U.S. Large Cap stocks posting an all-time high on February 19th, equities retreated during the second half of the quarter, officially falling into correction territory (down 10 percent) on March 13.
Taxpayers plan to use their tax refunds for essentials and debt repayment, as well as savings strategies. Bill Cass shares ideas and strategies to consider this year.
Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.
This series has been updated to include the March release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,322, down 5.9% from over 50 years ago.
Social Security is at the center of the fiscal emergency that threatens the US. Yet Washington is always reluctant to grapple with it honestly, partly because the issue is misunderstood.
The month of March featured a varied mix of articles among Advisor Perspectives’ top 10 most-read list, including book reviews, analysis of current events and primers on different subjects among its ranks.
The fifth edition of our annual “Voice of the American Workplace” survey, conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Franklin Templeton, includes the perspectives of both employers and workers. The 2025 survey found US workers are prioritizing work-life balance and their mental health. Employers are listening and strengthening their focus on improving benefits and communication. In this piece, our Jacque Reardon shares findings from the survey and potential implications for employers.
The April 2 “reciprocal” tariff announcement has introduced a considerable amount of uncertainty and confusion about the path ahead and the end game for President Trump.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down a selloff in US Treasuries, saying that there was nothing systemic at play, and also served warning against China not to attempt to devalue its exchange rate in retaliation for American tariff hikes.
Private equity firms are trying to regain some control after investors took advantage of one of the toughest fundraising environments in years.
When it’s finally completed seven years from now, Citadel LLC’s New York tower will be the second tallest building in the city, after the World Trade Center. It will also loom over the headquarters of JPMorgan Chase & Co. just a few hundred yards south along Park Avenue.
We’re adjusting our stance in response to rising risk while maintaining a disciplined view on long-term strategy.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for March. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 228,000.
Even the best financial plans sometimes hit an unexpected sour note: an investment seemingly doesn’t work out, an emergency expense appears to throw off a budget, or an impulsive splurge leaves us with a case of buyer’s remorse. When this happens, we need to improvise as we respond to the financial twists and turns.
We reexamine our macroeconomic outlook in light of newly announced tariffs, which have exceeded market expectations and prompted us to update our assumptions and analysis.
March's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
President Donald Trump has said his reciprocal tariff policy was meant to stand up for the American worker, whom he portrayed as the victim of a decades-long shift toward unfettered globalization.
Good news: Tariffs will not make the world end. American businesses will do what they do best, which is adapt. While the probability of a recession has increased, we always get through it and the best businesses thrive. Unless directly affected by tariffs, don’t change your personal plans that much.
Global markets are in freefall in response to President Donald Trump’s universal 10% tariff on all goods being imported into the U.S., with as many as 60 countries facing “reciprocal” tariffs on top of that.
The trajectory of small businesses often goes something this: a first-generation entrepreneur starts and grows a company. It could be a software company, but also a plumbing, electrical, or HVAC business.
The stock market faces severe downside risk ahead, and the U.S. is constrained in the unsystematic monetary and fiscal expansion that both amplified that bubble and fueled record but wholly impermanent corporate profit margins. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy now faces an imminent recession, and if we fail to be vigilant, we, once united Americans, risk losing what is far greater and more valuable than money.
Ideally, nobody would have to worry about the burgeoning and multifaceted realm of nonbank finance: Let hedge funds, securities dealers and the like take whatever risks they want, as long as they bear the full consequences.
Social Security faces funding issues by 2035, but major changes to the program are unlikely in the near term.
U.S. manufacturing growth stalled in March amid economic and tariff uncertainty. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a third straight month in March at 50.2 signaling a marginal improvement in operating conditions. The latest reading was higher than the 49.8 forecast.
In the current installment of The Roundup, Oaktree experts explore various investment risks and opportunities, including the heightened demand for mezzanine financing, potential entry points for special situations investors, the limited competition for unrated asset-backed finance investments, and the growing need for specialized life sciences lenders.
With the release of February's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.83% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.50% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 3.63% nominal and 1.06% real.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in February and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.1% year-over-year.
BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink pledged to open up private markets to millions of everyday investors, not just the wealthy few, contending individuals should share more of the gains from economic growth.
How recent market volatility has contributed to a sharp reversal in global equities.
Since May 2020, inflation (CPI) has gone from a low of 0.1% to a high of 9.1% and back to 2.8%. It is no wonder why any investor might at least pause in this period of uncertainty.
The stock market sell-off appears to be signaling a recession. However, we believe the bond market disagrees.
Life’s challenges often force us to become more present, to experience each moment fully. In doing so, I discovered the importance of celebrating small victories – not just the major milestones, but the everyday wins that mark progress.
Recently I have realized that cryptocurrency might be something even bigger and stranger than currency. It is not just digital money; it’s a bet on the huge global demand for financial autonomy.
In today’s hyper-competitive environment, delivering an institutional-caliber portfolio isn’t just table stakes – it’s a fiduciary mandate that exceeds the scope of an individual advisor. Here is a checklist to help advisors evaluate whether their current approaches align with institutional best practices.
Though you may not agree with my view on all seven of these terms, it may be beneficial for you and your clients to at least consider them.
Quantitative easing has created serious inflation threats. The only way out is to increase tax receipts and reduce government spending, neither of which is in the Fed’s purview. Otherwise, serious inflation lies ahead, regardless of Fed actions.
US economic data are diverging wildly, fueling a debate over whether rising anxiety from President Donald Trump’s trade policies will push a moderating economy into a serious downturn.
The theme among so many writers seems to be “vibe shift.” And indeed, there is a concern the economy is slowing and may even be in a recession.
Muni issuers are generally sound, so cuts in aid would be felt but dealt with.
EQT AB will return $5.4 billion to investors this week after completing the sale of a stake in Nord Anglia Education Ltd., marking one of the most profitable recent private equity exits in Asia, people familiar with the matter said.
Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.”
Receiving an unexpected gift or inheritance is something that people may dream about. Our Bill Cass discusses some key considerations if that dream becomes reality and you do receive a financial windfall.
Two Sessions, or Lianghui, is the popular name for the annual meeting of China’s top legislative and consultative bodies. These gatherings are closely watched by overseas observers as they provide key insight into China’s political landscape, economic priorities and overall policy direction.
What does a "correction" mean, what's likely to happen next, and what can investors do now?
The U.S. housing market has been a critical factor in the broader economic landscape, and its trends have profound implications.
Although annuities can offer a guaranteed income stream in retirement, they come with significant risks and complexities. It's essential to thoroughly understand these products and consider whether they align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
I often encounter individuals struggling with financial stress – whether it's saving for retirement, building an emergency fund, or paying down debt. To better understand these concerns, Barnum conducted a comprehensive study on the financial wellness of working Americans.
Prices can continue to rise, until they don’t. Have we reached the point where they don’t?
Markets have been overwhelmed lately by the administration’s fast-paced and, many times, highly uncertain tariff measures.
Cinthia Murphy, TMX VettaFi Investment Strategist interviews retirement expert and author of "Your Best Financial Life," Anne Lester. Anne will be hosting "Retirement: Communicating with (B)oomers to Gen(Z)," an engaging and exciting workshop at the Exchange conference in Las Vegas.
An “insurance renaissance” is quietly reshaping a traditionally sleepy industry as a surge in annuities sales fuels demand for investment products with shorter duration and less liquidity, according to AllianceBernstein, an $806 billion asset manager owned by insurer Equitable.
Navigating tax season can be even more confusing when facing the range of rules around IRA withdrawals, 529 plan distributions, and charitable deductions. Our Bill Cass details some common questions around tax filing.
Europe’s plan to rearm in the face of Russian aggression and US detachment has already delivered a bonanza to equity investors. Credit funds are scrambling to get a share of the windfall, too.
Short-term deadlines will complicate long-run plans.
As Donald Trump’s tariffs send markets into a tailspin, pressure is mounting on the president to speed up his main proposal for juicing the economy: a sweeping tax bill.
There’s a lesson for financial advisors in this story. If you demonstrate a genuine intention to engage and connect with your female clients, it will build relationships that could drive the growth of the business for years to come.
The PPA has made a mistake in designating an MA as a QDIA. Perhaps the drafters of the PPA were thinking about accounts that are actually managed, but those participants do not default, so that flavor of MA is not a QDIA, and is typically reserved for executives of the sponsoring firm.
The U.S. has poured more than $120 billion into Ukraine since its war with Russia began three years ago, but with a new administration in Washington, that support is grinding to a halt.
During February, Advisor Perspectives featured a number of quality articles on topics near and dear to the advisory community.
Retirement Income
No, Social Security Is Not a Ponzi Scheme
Social Security does face challenges. The trust fund reserves, built up during years when payroll taxes exceeded payouts, are projected to run dry around 2033. If Congress does nothing, benefits will need to be cut by about 20%. That’s serious, but it’s a solvency issue, not a scam.
The Finance Curse
The sole pursuit of shareholder value — i.e. of maximizing stock price — leads not to a focus on creating the greatest possible value for the firm’s customers, but to a focus on financial metrics and financial engineering.
Advising a Retired Client Who Wants to Buy a Second Home (or Other Big-Ticket Item)
In this article, I will discuss another advantage of using the actuarial approach for retirement planning — helping your clients determine when they can afford to make big-ticket item purchases.
7 Smart Tax Planning Strategies for High-Earning W-2 Employees
Tax planning for high-income earners isn’t about loopholes; it’s about leveraging the strategies available to you.
Roth IRA Conversions in Retirement: How to Successfully Minimize Taxes & Maximize Wealth
Many retirees hold substantial assets in traditional IRAs and taxable brokerage accounts. When planning for retirement income and considering your legacy, Roth IRA conversions can be a strategic way to reduce your tax burden and maximize the wealth you pass on to your heirs.
Investing Alongside Change
Risk-assets struggled amidst extremely volatile price action as investors weighed the probabilities of tariffs hitting profits and valuations.
Tax-Advantaged Accounts: A Powerful Addition to Your Financial Plan
A tax-advantaged account offers certain tax benefits to encourage individuals to save or invest for specific purposes, such as retirement, education or healthcare. These accounts can help you lower your taxable income, defer taxes or avoid taxes altogether if used for qualified expenses.
Tariffs, Policy Uncertainty Weighs on Economic, Investing Outlooks
Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam notes with volatility on the rise, maintaining a long-term view is key.
Tax Planning Should be a Focus for All seasons
Tax filing season may be over for many, but tax planning is an important focus year-round. Consider post-tax season strategies including optimizing deductions or adjusting retirement contributions. Our Bill Cass shares some tax planning ideas to consider.
US Bonds Have Never Been Risk-Free, and Never Will Be
Practically every financial meltdown or crisis can be traced back to a misunderstanding of which assets are “risk-free.” Investors think they have a risk-free asset — it could be a mortgage-backed security, shares in a Bernie Madoff fund, Greek debt — and are surprised when it turns out not to be.
Separating ‘Fiduciary’ From ‘Compensation’
No matter what form of compensation you take, it is impossible to eliminate “conflicts” to the extent assumed by the proponents of a new fiduciary standard.
As US Recession Looms, Banks Brace for Worse
If the US slides into recession, banks will be ready – at least according to commentary on their earnings calls last week.
A Warning to Baby Boomers and Others Regarding the China-U.S. Trade War
These are scary times. No surprise, the typical advice is to stay the course — that it will all work out fine — but those near retirement should take heed.
Swaps & Basis Trades Signal Mounting Liquidity Problems
As we have learned repeatedly, the Fed will take extensive emergency measures if it perceives liquidity problems. Even above their congressional mandated objective of managing employment and prices, the Fed's top priority is preserving the banks.
Tariff Tremors, Market Rotations, and the Imperative of Optimization
The first quarter of 2025 marked a significant departure from the preceding two years, which had been characterized by an improving global economy and correspondingly positive market returns. Market performance in Q1 was dominated by abrupt, short-term policy shifts rather than longer-term economic trends, and tariffs became the foremost concern for market participants.
2025 Muni Outlook: Stay Invested and Remain Nimble
Less favorable seasonal technicals, increased focus on municipal-specific policy risks, and severe volatility spurred by higher-than-anticipated tariff increases weighed heavily
on sentiment and resulted in deeply negative total returns and significant underperformance versus Treasuries in March and early April.
LPL Financial Welcomes Tenacity Investment Group
LPL Financial LLC announced today that financial advisor Steve Jones of Tenacity Investment Group has joined LPL Financial’s broker-dealer, Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) and custodial platforms.
An Abrupt and Cascading Dislocation
While we remain open to changes in market conditions, as well as periodic “fast, furious, prone-to-failure” advances that can relieve the oversold “compression” produced by market losses, we are presently on high alert for a possibly abrupt and cascading market and economic dislocation in the weeks ahead.
Washington: What to Watch Now
One of the most volatile market weeks in years was sparked by tariff announcements earlier this month. President Donald Trump's 10% universal tariff went into effect on April 5th, followed by his controversial reciprocal tariffs on April 9th.
Advisors Share Solutions for Rising Homeowner Insurance Costs
As homeowner insurance rates rise, advisors share ways individuals can create a financial safety net should catastrophe impact their homes.
Now Is the Time to Ask: How Much Market Risk Can You Take?
Now that the stock market has momentarily stabilized from the shock of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, investors have an opportunity to reflect on how their portfolio held up during the past two turbulent weeks.
Six Tax Planning Ideas for Navigating Market Volatility
Navigating market volatility can be challenging for investors. Our Bill Cass shares several tax planning strategies to consider.
Equity Outlook: American Exceptionalism Reexamined
While we continue to feel the U.S. has structural investment advantages, we are mindful that the scope of the current administration's policy shifts may present challenges to our sustained economic momentum.
Risk Management Amid Economic Uncertainty
The current market unrest over the potential for tariff increases and their impact is unpredictable. The volatility can be unnerving.
The Connelly Case Is a Wake-Up Call for Business Owners
The "Connelly case "is more than just a legal precedent; it is a call to action for business owners to reevaluate their succession plans and take the necessary steps to protect their interests.
Social Security Is Protection From Volatility
This month’s roller-coaster ride through the markets has been more frightening than exhilarating for many Americans, who have more than $44 trillion invested in retirement accounts.
How Advisors Can Assist Clients in Rebalancing Their Portfolio Over Time
Portfolio rebalancing helps advisors uncover a new investment plan of action that aligns with a client's long-term financial milestones. It also considers how the current market will impact asset diversification.
Why Don't We Fix the Fiscal Deficit? That Will Start Fixing our Trade Deficit
Some of the reasons, but not the only ones, why our trade deficits are so large is because government expenditures are too high and/or we are not collecting enough taxes.
Is It Time for Smart Beta to Be Smart?
On the evening before his presentation at the Exchange Conference last week, I sat down with Rob Arnott to discuss whether now is the time for smart beta to shine. Arnott is the founder and chair of Research Affiliates and is known as the “godfather of smart beta.”
The Q1 Stock Setback & Target Date Fund Investors — More of the Same to Come
This may be the beginning of the long-awaited U.S. stock market crash, but even if it isn’t those near retirement need to protect themselves from sequence-of-return risk that can ruin the rest of their lives.
Where Did I Put My Investments?
As with all decisions involving uncertainty, we want to find the answer which maximizes your expected risk-adjusted return, not your base-case or expected return. This means that we have to go beyond the industry standard and explicitly account for risk in our analysis.
Tariffs Add Another Challenge for Investors to Consider
After starting the year on a high note with the S&P 500 index of U.S. Large Cap stocks posting an all-time high on February 19th, equities retreated during the second half of the quarter, officially falling into correction territory (down 10 percent) on March 13.
Putting Your Tax Refund to Work
Taxpayers plan to use their tax refunds for essentials and debt repayment, as well as savings strategies. Bill Cass shares ideas and strategies to consider this year.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Ask Again Later"
Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.
Real Middle Class Wages as of March 2025
This series has been updated to include the March release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,322, down 5.9% from over 50 years ago.
Repairing Social Security’s Finances Can’t Wait
Social Security is at the center of the fiscal emergency that threatens the US. Yet Washington is always reluctant to grapple with it honestly, partly because the issue is misunderstood.
March 2025’s Most-Read Articles Offer Something for Everyone
The month of March featured a varied mix of articles among Advisor Perspectives’ top 10 most-read list, including book reviews, analysis of current events and primers on different subjects among its ranks.
Aligning for Success: From Conflict to Consensus
The fifth edition of our annual “Voice of the American Workplace” survey, conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Franklin Templeton, includes the perspectives of both employers and workers. The 2025 survey found US workers are prioritizing work-life balance and their mental health. Employers are listening and strengthening their focus on improving benefits and communication. In this piece, our Jacque Reardon shares findings from the survey and potential implications for employers.
What’s the Tariff Endgame?
The April 2 “reciprocal” tariff announcement has introduced a considerable amount of uncertainty and confusion about the path ahead and the end game for President Trump.
Bessent Sees ‘Normal Deleveraging’ in Bonds, Warns China on Yuan
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down a selloff in US Treasuries, saying that there was nothing systemic at play, and also served warning against China not to attempt to devalue its exchange rate in retaliation for American tariff hikes.
Private Equity Firms Ask for Cash to Let Stakes Change Hands
Private equity firms are trying to regain some control after investors took advantage of one of the toughest fundraising environments in years.
Shadow Banks Are Too Big to Stay in the Shadows
When it’s finally completed seven years from now, Citadel LLC’s New York tower will be the second tallest building in the city, after the World Trade Center. It will also loom over the headquarters of JPMorgan Chase & Co. just a few hundred yards south along Park Avenue.
Recalibrating for Higher Risk Without Overcorrecting
We’re adjusting our stance in response to rising risk while maintaining a disciplined view on long-term strategy.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: March 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for March. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 228,000.
The Jazz of Money: Improvising Past Financial Sour Notes
Even the best financial plans sometimes hit an unexpected sour note: an investment seemingly doesn’t work out, an emergency expense appears to throw off a budget, or an impulsive splurge leaves us with a case of buyer’s remorse. When this happens, we need to improvise as we respond to the financial twists and turns.
The Price of Protectionism - Tariffs Toll On Growth
We reexamine our macroeconomic outlook in light of newly announced tariffs, which have exceeded market expectations and prompted us to update our assumptions and analysis.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: March 2025
March's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
America’s Retirees Will Share Wall Street’s Pain
President Donald Trump has said his reciprocal tariff policy was meant to stand up for the American worker, whom he portrayed as the victim of a decades-long shift toward unfettered globalization.
The Tariff Recession?
Good news: Tariffs will not make the world end. American businesses will do what they do best, which is adapt. While the probability of a recession has increased, we always get through it and the best businesses thrive. Unless directly affected by tariffs, don’t change your personal plans that much.
America’s Tariff Rate Hits the Highest Level Since 1909—And That’s Before Retaliation
Global markets are in freefall in response to President Donald Trump’s universal 10% tariff on all goods being imported into the U.S., with as many as 60 countries facing “reciprocal” tariffs on top of that.
Private Equity: Too Big to Fail?
The trajectory of small businesses often goes something this: a first-generation entrepreneur starts and grows a company. It could be a software company, but also a plumbing, electrical, or HVAC business.
Humpty Dumpty Was Pushed
The stock market faces severe downside risk ahead, and the U.S. is constrained in the unsystematic monetary and fiscal expansion that both amplified that bubble and fueled record but wholly impermanent corporate profit margins. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy now faces an imminent recession, and if we fail to be vigilant, we, once united Americans, risk losing what is far greater and more valuable than money.
Finance Needs to Be Prepared for the Unexpected
Ideally, nobody would have to worry about the burgeoning and multifaceted realm of nonbank finance: Let hedge funds, securities dealers and the like take whatever risks they want, as long as they bear the full consequences.
Will Social Security Change As Spending Cuts Are Considered?
Social Security faces funding issues by 2035, but major changes to the program are unlikely in the near term.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Growth Stalled in March
U.S. manufacturing growth stalled in March amid economic and tariff uncertainty. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a third straight month in March at 50.2 signaling a marginal improvement in operating conditions. The latest reading was higher than the 49.8 forecast.
Top Takeaways from Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters – March 2025 Edition
In the current installment of The Roundup, Oaktree experts explore various investment risks and opportunities, including the heightened demand for mezzanine financing, potential entry points for special situations investors, the limited competition for unrated asset-backed finance investments, and the growing need for specialized life sciences lenders.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.5% in February
With the release of February's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.83% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.50% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 3.63% nominal and 1.06% real.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.1% in February
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in February and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.1% year-over-year.
Larry Fink Vows to Unlock Private Investments for the Masses
BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink pledged to open up private markets to millions of everyday investors, not just the wealthy few, contending individuals should share more of the gains from economic growth.
Volatility Brings Changes to Market Leadership
How recent market volatility has contributed to a sharp reversal in global equities.
The Calm Within the Storm
Since May 2020, inflation (CPI) has gone from a low of 0.1% to a high of 9.1% and back to 2.8%. It is no wonder why any investor might at least pause in this period of uncertainty.
Bond Market Not Signaling Recession
The stock market sell-off appears to be signaling a recession. However, we believe the bond market disagrees.
Lessons on Rebuilding After Catastrophe
Life’s challenges often force us to become more present, to experience each moment fully. In doing so, I discovered the importance of celebrating small victories – not just the major milestones, but the everyday wins that mark progress.
Cryptocurrency Isn’t Money—It’s Something Much Bigger
Recently I have realized that cryptocurrency might be something even bigger and stranger than currency. It is not just digital money; it’s a bet on the huge global demand for financial autonomy.
Constructing a Contemporary Portfolio to Make Capital Markets Work Harder for You
In today’s hyper-competitive environment, delivering an institutional-caliber portfolio isn’t just table stakes – it’s a fiduciary mandate that exceeds the scope of an individual advisor. Here is a checklist to help advisors evaluate whether their current approaches align with institutional best practices.
7 Financial Terms Advisors Often Misunderstand
Though you may not agree with my view on all seven of these terms, it may be beneficial for you and your clients to at least consider them.
The Catch-22 in the Fed’s Interest Rate Decision
Quantitative easing has created serious inflation threats. The only way out is to increase tax receipts and reduce government spending, neither of which is in the Fed’s purview. Otherwise, serious inflation lies ahead, regardless of Fed actions.
Diverging US Economic Data Begs the Question: Is a Slowdown Coming?
US economic data are diverging wildly, fueling a debate over whether rising anxiety from President Donald Trump’s trade policies will push a moderating economy into a serious downturn.
The Inflationista Illuminati, Part 2
The theme among so many writers seems to be “vibe shift.” And indeed, there is a concern the economy is slowing and may even be in a recession.
Municipal Bonds: Built to Withstand Federal Funding Cuts
Muni issuers are generally sound, so cuts in aid would be felt but dealt with.
EQT Returns $5.4 Billion to Investors After Education Bet Soars
EQT AB will return $5.4 billion to investors this week after completing the sale of a stake in Nord Anglia Education Ltd., marking one of the most profitable recent private equity exits in Asia, people familiar with the matter said.
Stupidity And The 5-Laws Not To Follow
Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.”
Your Ship Finally Came In. Now What?
Receiving an unexpected gift or inheritance is something that people may dream about. Our Bill Cass discusses some key considerations if that dream becomes reality and you do receive a financial windfall.
China Stimulus: Better Luck Next Year
Two Sessions, or Lianghui, is the popular name for the annual meeting of China’s top legislative and consultative bodies. These gatherings are closely watched by overseas observers as they provide key insight into China’s political landscape, economic priorities and overall policy direction.
Market Correction: What Does It Mean?
What does a "correction" mean, what's likely to happen next, and what can investors do now?
The U.S. Housing Market: Risks, Realities, and the Road Ahead
The U.S. housing market has been a critical factor in the broader economic landscape, and its trends have profound implications.
Are Annuities Right for Retirement?
Although annuities can offer a guaranteed income stream in retirement, they come with significant risks and complexities. It's essential to thoroughly understand these products and consider whether they align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
Empowering Clients Through Financial Guidance
I often encounter individuals struggling with financial stress – whether it's saving for retirement, building an emergency fund, or paying down debt. To better understand these concerns, Barnum conducted a comprehensive study on the financial wellness of working Americans.
The Math Behind Earnings Growth Does Not Support High Stock Prices
Prices can continue to rise, until they don’t. Have we reached the point where they don’t?
Tariffs Noise Hides Positive Inflation Developments
Markets have been overwhelmed lately by the administration’s fast-paced and, many times, highly uncertain tariff measures.
The Road to Exchange: Featuring Anne Lester
Cinthia Murphy, TMX VettaFi Investment Strategist interviews retirement expert and author of "Your Best Financial Life," Anne Lester. Anne will be hosting "Retirement: Communicating with (B)oomers to Gen(Z)," an engaging and exciting workshop at the Exchange conference in Las Vegas.
An ‘Insurance Renaissance’ Is Fueling Private Credit Surge, Says AllianceBernstein
An “insurance renaissance” is quietly reshaping a traditionally sleepy industry as a surge in annuities sales fuels demand for investment products with shorter duration and less liquidity, according to AllianceBernstein, an $806 billion asset manager owned by insurer Equitable.
Seeking Clarity at Tax Season: Tackling Common Confusions
Navigating tax season can be even more confusing when facing the range of rules around IRA withdrawals, 529 plan distributions, and charitable deductions. Our Bill Cass details some common questions around tax filing.
As Europe Rearms, Bond Funds Are Ripping Up the Rule Book
Europe’s plan to rearm in the face of Russian aggression and US detachment has already delivered a bonanza to equity investors. Credit funds are scrambling to get a share of the windfall, too.
The U.S. Fiscal State of Play
Short-term deadlines will complicate long-run plans.
Tariff Worry on Wall Street Pressures Trump to Speed Up Tax Cuts
As Donald Trump’s tariffs send markets into a tailspin, pressure is mounting on the president to speed up his main proposal for juicing the economy: a sweeping tax bill.
Women Are Wired to Invest—Are You Making the Most of This Referral Goldmine?
There’s a lesson for financial advisors in this story. If you demonstrate a genuine intention to engage and connect with your female clients, it will build relationships that could drive the growth of the business for years to come.
Managed Account Is a Misnomer When it Comes to QDIAs
The PPA has made a mistake in designating an MA as a QDIA. Perhaps the drafters of the PPA were thinking about accounts that are actually managed, but those participants do not default, so that flavor of MA is not a QDIA, and is typically reserved for executives of the sponsoring firm.
European Defense Stocks Go Parabolic as War Spending Surges
The U.S. has poured more than $120 billion into Ukraine since its war with Russia began three years ago, but with a new administration in Washington, that support is grinding to a halt.
February Featured Articles on Bitcoin, Tax-Loss Harvesting & More
During February, Advisor Perspectives featured a number of quality articles on topics near and dear to the advisory community.