Retirement Income

This year has marked another remarkable chapter for the global economy and financial markets. Investors have navigated no shortage of challenges, from geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions to elevated energy prices and shifting interest rate expectations. Yet despite these headwinds, the economy continues to expand, corporate earnings remain resilient and markets have steadily climbed the proverbial wall of worry.

The latest employment report was softer on the headline numbers, but I thought the underlying details were quite constructive. Payroll growth came in below expectations and the prior two months were revised downward, yet labor-force participation increased and the workweek stabilized rather than declining as expected.

In this month’s issue, AI, energy and robotics are creating new opportunities in emerging markets, but selectivity remains key as policy, cost and execution risks evolve.

We understand that you can’t forecast the sequence of returns, but we CAN build a plan that survives a bad one. As Howard Marks puts it, you can’t predict, but you can prepare. These are the rules of engagement once you’ve crossed from saving into spending.

Today’s employment report reinforced a trend that has been evident across several labor market indicators: conditions in the goods-producing sector continue to improve after several difficult years, while hiring across the much larger service sector continues to soften.

Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%.

Executives enter the earnings season with a bit of a swagger. They won't say it out loud, of course, but consider all the headwinds CEOs of companies big and small have faced in the last few years. First, it was imminent recession fears; then it was looming tariffs (followed by the shock of April 2025).

Global equities advanced in the third quarter as market returns broadened away from technology. But AI’s disruptive impact is spreading across sectors and industries—transforming the very nature of investment diversification.

Neither a borrower nor a lender be,” wrote William Shakespeare, who was one of history’s greatest authors but obviously ill-versed in economics. Without lending or borrowing, our modern economic society wouldn’t grow very much, AI or not.

For a quarter of a century, the hyperscalers have been some of the most profitable and technologically innovative businesses ever created. The reason was clear: their marginal cost per additional customer was almost zero. Costs were fixed and scale was effectively unlimited, which meant margins widened as volume grew.

Recent bond market repricing has pushed municipal yields to levels not seen in decades and improved the potential risk-reward profile for fixed income. Here, we examine why municipals stand out, how supportive credit fundamentals shape the opportunity and why investors may benefit from extending maturities to lock in attractive tax-exempt income.

The Fed’s latest 25 basis point hike might represent a recalibration rather than tightening. Instead of focusing on the next hike, investors should watch broader financial conditions and the long-term trajectory for interest rates.

Investors who have owned securities for many years can accumulate significant unrealized gains. Selling those investments to reposition a portfolio can trigger capital gains taxes.

Market participants have been conditioned to expect clear Forward Guidance from Fed Chairs. Chairman Warsh has made it clear that Forward Guidance will be less under his leadership, but he has offered a very important qualifier that many have yet to grasp.

Today, we’re going to look at a lot of various data points and analysis, that when taken together give us a much clearer picture of the total world.

Emerging markets have significantly evolved in recent years and offer a more compelling risk/reward setup than in the past. From deeper local markets to world-leading companies, Emerging markets presents a stronger opportunity than geopolitical volatility suggests.

An important decision in special needs planning isn’t necessarily one that can be found in textbooks, determined by a formula in a spreadsheet, or governed by laws or regulations. It’s the choice of the people who will surround your loved one when you can no longer.

Chuck Carnevale explains the Rule of 72 and shows how earnings growth can compound over time. Using FAST Graphs and real stock examples, he explores how growth and valuation affect long-term returns.

Midterm elections are increasingly taking over the headlines, and that includes coverage of markets. While inflation, rates, and geopolitics probably have more outright impact on portfolios, investors and market watchers still look to midterm elections as a major event.

Franklin Equity’s Grant Bowers discusses why a higher cost of capital does not change the capital expenditure outlook.

The sell-off in U.S. Treasury (UST) yields has continued pretty much in an unabated fashion In fact, multi-year high watermarks are being achieved throughout the fixed coupon maturity curve. The most widely followed development was the UST 10-year yield rising to its highest level since 2007.

Markets await a possible Fed rate hike as Congress weighs Trump's dividend proposal, a limited fall session, and a Senate vote on crypto regulation.

The takeaway from Q3 isn't that the IPO recovery is dead, it's that it has entered a far more tactical phase. The appetite to register is undeniably present, but the window to price comfortably has narrowed. For big names like OpenAI and Oura, taking extra time to clear safety, governance, or market noise is a luxury of strength, not desperation.

You can’t spot it on the field or in the stadium. You can’t correct it in training. Or cure it with a dose from the team doctor. But it’s a malady an overwhelming number of professional athletes will face.

Munis can fund local power, grid, water and wastewater infrastructure; most AI campus capital will be financed in non-municipal markets.​

Explore how muni bond ETFs and targeted state funds can provide tax-efficient yields and strategic flexibility heading into 2027.

All eyes are on the macro economy. A significant market correction in late July triggered the abrupt collapse of Situational Awareness, L.P., a $45 billion, highly leveraged, AI-focused hedge fund. The collapse forced selling of many technology hardware stocks that were winners in the first half of 2026.

Assessing the wall of worry. Here, we assess the market's growing wall of worry, explain why these worries warrant attention, and justify our continued constructive intermediate-to-long-term stock market outlook.

Economic data from last week continued to paint a picture of a robust U.S. economy with an accelerating pace of growth. After a strong durable goods report showed business fixed investment continuing to rise on the back of ongoing AI data center buildouts, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for third-quarter real economic growth remained at an elevated 5 percent.

Some employer retirement plans allow after-tax contributions that can be converted to Roth assets. Learn how a mega backdoor Roth strategy works and key considerations for retirement planning.

From social media and AI tools to financial professionals and workplace resources, defined contribution (DC) plan participants are drawing retirement insights from an expanding portfolio of sources, according to our latest survey. But more content doesn’t necessarily mean better outcomes. We think plan sponsors are well positioned to help participants cut through the noise.

Globalization is being reorganized around security and resilience, creating uneven risks and opportunities across markets.

Across the world, nations are dealing with rising costs from energy and debt service. These costs are compounding as time goes on.

The bond market has become the central story for investors. The remarkable development over the past several weeks is not rising inflation expectations but rising real interest rates. Real rates have increased roughly 40 basis points in just three weeks, one of the sharpest moves I can remember over such a short period. Meanwhile, longer-term inflation expectations have actually edged slightly lower.

Bond markets continue to adjust to a more hawkish policy environment following the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike.

There is more than one reason the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23% today. Most importantly, the Fed has stopped anchoring interest rates at artificially low levels. Fear of inflation is likely another. However, both of those are related to the massive government debt the US has created.

A recent VettaFi webcast explored advice on navigating retirees' behavioral tendencies in decumulating assets in retirement.

As bond yields have risen, mortgage rates are again facing upward pressure, extending the U.S. housing market's post-pandemic affordability challenges. Beyond mortgage rates, trends in wage growth, taxes, and insurance costs also continue to shape the affordability outlook.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Understanding why investor optimism wins over a full market cycle is one of the most underrated edges an investor can own, and it has almost nothing to do with waving pom-poms. 

The financial markets are navigating a storm. The Treasury yield sell-off intensified this week, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to an intraday high of 5.20%, its highest level since 2007.

A snowball effect of asset values can similarly empower wealth effects: the tendency for consumers to spend more as the value of their investments rises. Wealth effects are surprising at first glance: household investments may be illiquid and tend not to produce substantial cash flow. However, a rising net worth builds a consumer’s confidence in their ability to afford purchases.

Northern Trust Asset Management will move six mutual funds with $33 billion in assets into ETFs in early 2027, its first such conversions.

The U.S. economy remains resilient despite headwinds including sticky inflation, trade instability and rising geopolitical tensions. State and local government tax revenues have followed suit and have posted solid growth, aided by robust equity market returns.

Second-quarter earnings were strong, particularly in technology, but crowded ownership often determined whether good news was rewarded. The selloff in semiconductors arguably reflected crowded positioning and concerns surrounding the sustainability of the earnings boom. The net result: multiples compressed while earnings revisions held up.

The yield on the 30-year hit a multi-decade high this week, spiking amid continued fiscal and monetary concerns. The 30-year hitting 5.45%, its highest mark since 2004, comes amid an already busy year for bonds.

Asset owners want private-market exposure, but liquidity remains their biggest hurdle, an opening advisors can meet with public alternatives.

This week, there are a few things that we need to pay attention to: the large move in interest rates and what it means (and more importantly, what it doesn’t mean!); and the constant barrage of doom and gloom on energy and AI. Let’s jump in.

Last week we looked at the Federal Reserve’s inflation problem. This week, let’s look at the other half of its mandate: maximum employment.

Since ChatGPT was first released in 2022, the artificial intelligence (AI) trade has dominated US equity markets. Gains have been driven by three interrelated forces: enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, growing concentration in the largest technology companies and strong price momentum.

This year has presented no shortage of challenges for investors. Geopolitical conflict, trade tensions, rising energy prices, shifting interest rate expectations and an increasingly active political backdrop have each taken turns dominating the headlines. Yet despite these obstacles, the economy has continued to expand, corporate profits have marched higher and markets have climbed one wall of worry after another.

Trump Accounts are now available nationwide. Explore how the new tax-advantaged accounts work, who can contribute and key considerations for families evaluating their long-term savings options.