Commentary

The Prices Don’t Feel Right: Unraveling the Inflation Perception

Inflation is not fun. And—for the past 30 years—it has largely been a non-issue for consumers. That dynamic has changed. The relevant question is whether this is something persistent and meaningful or simply a fleeting feeling.

Commentary

Fed Watch: At the Midway Point

Once again, the Fed kept rates unchanged at the June FOMC meeting. As a result, the Fed Funds trading range remains in the 5.25%–5.50% band that was introduced in July last year, and still resides at a more than 20-year high-water mark.

Commentary

Why India Remains Our Favorite Emerging Markets Growth Story Post-Election

India’s equity markets have experienced strong growth and momentum, with rising incomes and political stability contributing to the country’s potential for accelerated growth.

Commentary

Case for Currency Hedging: Weak Currency Benefits Europe and Japan

In today’s complex global economy, currency fluctuations play a crucial role in shaping investment outcomes. While we’ve previously emphasized the importance of currency hedging in a U.S. investor’s international portfolio, there’s a subtle aspect that often goes unnoticed: the positive impact of weak currencies for Japanese and European companies and U.S. tolerance of it as a check on Chinese exports.

Commentary

A Cushion Against Potential Economic Turbulence

There was a significant reaction in the bond market to the latest job growth figures, which exceeded expectations. The positive surprise led to a sharp 10 basis point rise in long bond yields. Interestingly, equity markets remained resilient in the face of this increase, suggesting a collective market relief that we are not heading toward a slowdown or recession.

Commentary

The Dollar Remains King

The most important precondition for the U.S. dollar to lose its dominance would be the existence of a viable alternative currency, which currently does not exist.

Commentary

Deflated Expectations

Here we are through the first five months of 2024, and you could say the more things change, the more they stay the same. What exactly do we mean, you might ask?

Commentary

Awaiting a Crucial Employment Report

The story that captured all media attention last week was Donald Trump’s guilty verdict. But the Trump conviction had no effect on the markets or predicted probabilities in betting markets for him becoming president.

Commentary

U.S. Credit: We’re Not in Uncharted Territory

While the money and bond markets continue their Fed-watch saga, there is one constant that we have been emphasizing for the fixed income landscape: a new rate regime.

Commentary

Navigating Inflation: The FOMC’s Single Mandate

The Federal Open Market Committee is always data-dependent. But the dependency is not always the same. There are times when inflation matters more than the labor market, and times when the situation is reversed. Every regime is unique. There is never a perfect corollary to a previous experience. This time is not different.

Commentary

The Bull Market is Still Intact

Economic reports from the past week provided reassurance following the previous week's disappointments. Stay up to date on the current conditions with the latest commentary from Professor Siegel.

Commentary

Data Dependency = Volatility

There is no question that Fed policy remains the primary force driving the money and bond markets for the third year in a row.

Commentary

Asian Stock Markets Have Become Anti-Correlated

The consensus has egg on its face with respect to Chinese stocks. It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Entering this year, one of the big concerns—and the primary reason for China’s ugly multi-year bear market—was the country’s destiny with a “4-handle” on gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Commentary

Navigating Economic Signals with Optimism

Despite the overall positive response from the markets last week, the data presented its share of ups and downs. Stay up to date on the varied indicators with the latest commentary from Professor Siegel.

Commentary

A Pivotal Week for the Markets

Last week was quiet on the economic and data front. The one high frequency data indicator we did receive was jobless claims, which ticked up after a dull stretch of near constancy. The jobless claims figure came in at 231,000, which is at the higher end of my preferred range of 200-240k.