All of the attention when it comes to future Fed monetary policy decisions has been laser-focused on rate cuts. We would have to concur, and rightfully so. However, that doesn’t mean investors should take their eyes off the ball and not consider the Fed’s balance sheet.

While the market has largely moved past that year’s recession debate, it’s worth noting that the traditional definition that persisted for all our careers—two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—did occur in the first half of 2022.

A couple of weeks ago, we wrote about how the deficit had come back into focus for the U.S. financial markets.

To judge by the action in some foreign markets, Donald Trump’s election is pricing in economic winter.

The macroeconomic overview presents ambiguity. In the face of U.S. elections, falling rates, and a host of trends that could shape the market, investors need to find a smart approach.

While the primary focus for the financial markets has been on the continued resilient U.S. economy and what the current Fed rate cut cycle will ultimately look like, there has been another topic that has been making the rounds in the bond arena: the budget deficit.

The U.S. election outcome is anyone’s guess, so let’s try to game out the winners and losers from the candidates’ major policy proposals.

The Fed’s “recalibration” of monetary policy is more than just about shifting to rate cuts. It also involves where the policy maker is now placing its greater emphasis on setting the course for easing in the future. Rather than inflation being the primary driver in the decision-making process, labor market activity has now taken center stage, and with that, one could argue, for the Fed, it’s now about the economy.

In the span of a few days in late July, the market got live to two contrasting theories at once: that U.S. inflation is collapsing while Japanese inflation will remain stubbornly high.

Post-Jackson Hole and now post-jobs report, the markets can settle in for a rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting.

Is the Japanese yen carry trade back on? Tough question. We think it is, now that the Bank of Japan has toned down its hawkish rhetoric. More on that later. Still, even if we are wrong, the reality is that the market will be talking about the violent ructions of August 2024 for the rest of our careers.

The financial markets appear to be rather confident the Fed will finally begin its rate cutting process at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, at a minimum. The debate has now shifted as to what this easing cycle will ultimately look like.

The big story making the rounds this summer is the spike in the small-cap Russell 2000 since the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which shocked the market by printing 0.0% month-over-month in June.

The outlook for the Federal Reserve (Fed) through the first six months of 2024 has been a bit of a roller-coaster ride to say the least. While one could argue the overarching premise has been for rate cuts, it has certainly not been a smooth ride.

Is the labor market okay? Depends on who you ask. The answer to that question should be a strong guidepost for whether you like Consumer Staples relative to the broad market.

Here we are through the first five months of 2024, and you could say the more things change, the more they stay the same. What exactly do we mean, you might ask?

The consensus has egg on its face with respect to Chinese stocks. It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Entering this year, one of the big concerns—and the primary reason for China’s ugly multi-year bear market—was the country’s destiny with a “4-handle” on gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

It seems that every few years, the term “stagflation” gets floated around to describe the current and/or prospective U.S. macro landscape.

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Something in the market changed about a half-year ago. A dandy old “truism” that had made the rounds for ages got scrapped.