The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.873M was up 9.09% from the November reading and is above the Investing.com forecast of 1.702M.

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Just three out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 18, 2022. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a YTD gain of 4.29%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a gain of 3.06%, and London's FTSE 100 is in third with a gain of 2.42%. Coming in last is our own S&P with a loss of 3.97%.

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In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 31, 2021 close.

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This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -0.7 was a decrease of 32.6 from the previous month's 31.9. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 25.7.

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The S&P 500 is down 2.17% in the first two weeks of 2022 and is 2.8% below its record close. Despite the slow start to 2022, the index seems to still be trending up. The yield on the 10-year treasury is 1.78% and the 2 year is 0.99% as of today.

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Month-over-month nominal sales in December were down 1.91% and up 16.95% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 2.37% and were up 9.17% YoY.

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The January Preliminary Report came in at 68.8, down 1.8 (2.5%) from the December Final. Investing.com had forecast 70.0. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 20 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 19.1 percent below the geometric mean.

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Today's report on Industrial Production for December shows a 0.1% decrease month-over-month, which was worse than the Investing.com consensus of 0.3%. The year-over-year change is at 3.67%, down from last month's YoY increase.

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The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.91% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.1%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -2.29% MoM.

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We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for December. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 199K.

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With the Q3 GDP Third Estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 206.6%, down from 212.7% the previous quarter.

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We are now seeing the highest Headline inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.

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This morning's release of the December Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was down 0.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 1.1% increase last month. It is at 12.4% year-over-year, down from 13.6% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Finished Goods (less food and energy) came in at 0.6% MoM, unchanged from the previous month and is up 6.5% YoY NSA. The December PPI for Final Demand was at 0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 1.0% increase last month. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts for Final Demand were for 0.4% headline and 0.5% core.

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The yield on the 10-year note ended January 12, 2022, at 1.74%, the 2-year note ended at 0.92%, and the 30-year at 2.08%.

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Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from the latest Employment Report for November. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.

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What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

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Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 7.04%, up from 6.81% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 5.45%, up from 4.93% the previous month and is above the Fed's 2% PCE target.

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The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

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The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).

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At present, multiple jobholders account for 4.8 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the current relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.

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The headline number for December came in at 98.9, up 0.5 from the previous month. The index is at the 44th percentile in this series.

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Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $20,551 for an annualized real return of 14.49%.

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Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.

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The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 199K nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 145K service-providing jobs and a gain of 54K goods-producing jobs.

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Take a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite since 2000. We've updated this through the December 31, 2021 close.

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This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December's 199K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 141K more jobs than previously reported. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%. The Investing.com consensus was for 400K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%.

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This morning's employment report for December showed a 199K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was below the Investing.com forecast of 400K jobs added. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%.

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Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

• The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline

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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the December Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at 62.0 percent, down 7.1 from 69.1 last month. Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 66.9 percent.

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The December US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.6 percent, down from the final November estimate of 58.0.

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The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -80.17B was worse than the -77.1B Investing.com forecast.

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Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns.

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Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.

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This morning we have the ADP December estimate of 807K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over the ADP revised November figure of 505K.

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As of December 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 100 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020

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Note: This update includes December close data.

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Quick take: At the end of December the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 185% above its long-term trend, down from 186% above the previous month.

About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.

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This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for December. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 58.7, a decrease of 2.4 from 61.1 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 60.0.

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The December US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.7, down 0.6 from the final November figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.

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Quick take: Based on the December S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 197% above its arithmetic mean and at the 100th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.

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Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull?

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Valid until the market close on January 31, 2021.

The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly gain of 4.36% after a loss of 0.83% in November. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, allf five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC), and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU) — up from last month's quadruple "invested" signal.

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Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.

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We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes Initial Jobless Claims through 12/25, November Employment, November Industrial Production, and Q3 GDP.

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The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 63.1 in December from 61.8 in November, which is still in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.

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With yesterday morning's release of the October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.92% increase month over month which is cut to 0.47% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 19.1% YoY increase.

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The National Association of Realtors released the October data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "ending home sales slipped in November, receding slightly after a previous month of gains."

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Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for December is 19, down from the previous month.

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Fifth District manufacturing activity grew in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from 12 in November to 16 in December and indicates expansion.

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The headline number of 115.8 was an increase of 3.9 from the final reading of 111.9 for November. 

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for October. U.S. house prices were up 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 17.5% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is down 0.1% in October and up 9% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).

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The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for December. The latest general business activity index came in at 8.1, down 3.7  from November. All figures are seasonally adjusted.

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This morning's release of the November New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 744K, up 12.4% month-over-month from a downwardly revised 662K in October. The Investing.com forecast was for 770K. The median home price is now at $407.6K.

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With the release of this morning's report on November's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.36% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.25% when we adjust for inflation. This is an increase from last month's 0.32% nominal and -0.35% real changes. The year-over-year metrics are 5.47% nominal and -0.25% real.

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Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in November rose 0.36% and is up 7.2% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was down 0.25%. The real number is up 1.4% year-over-year.

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The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for November was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.61% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 5.73% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 4.68%, well above the Fed's 2% target rate.

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The latest new orders number at 2.5% month-over-month (MoM) was better than the Investing.com 1.6% estimate. The series is up 143.7% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 0.8% MoM, which was above the Investing.com consensus of 0.6%. The core measure is up 13.4% YoY.

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The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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The Third Estimate for Q3 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.3% (2.30% to two decimal places), a decrease from 6.7% (6.73% to two decimal places) for the Q2 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 2.1%.

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Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.37 in November from +0.75 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in November, but all four categories deteriorated from October. The index’s three-month moving average,  CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.37 in November from +0.25 in October

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"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +7.1% (+18.4 billion vehicle miles) for October 2021 as compared with October 2020. Travel for the month is estimated to be 277.5 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.60% month-over-month and up 7.1% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.55% month-over-month and up 6.7% year-over-year.

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The latest full set UIG for November is 4.35% while the prices-only measure is 4.66%. Current Headline CPI is now 6.81% and Core CPI is 4.39%.

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The latest index came in at 24, unchanged from last, indicating steady continued expansion in December. The future outlook dropped to 25. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 84 is up 1 from last month's 83.

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The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this week puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 6.81%. It is above the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 1.85%.

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We've updated this series to include the November release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $45,012, down 7.3% from 45-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.

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The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through October, is now available.

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The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 2005. Sixteen years later, it is now down 20.7% from that peak.

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The Second Estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 2.1% (2.10% to two decimals), down from 6.7% (6.73% to two decimals) in Q2 2021. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.74% to two decimal points.

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The Census Bureau has posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments.

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The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for September, released Friday, shows that core inflation is above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 3.64%. The September Core Consumer Price Index release is currently higher, at 4.03%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

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Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q3 2021.

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The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is:

"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"

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The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. In terms of income, this class has not gained much in recent decades. Let's take a closer look at a troubling aspect of the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data, issued in September. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting, which began in 1967, to the release of the annual data for 2020.

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The median US income in 2020 was $67,521, up from $22,415 in 1984 — a 201% rise over the 36-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2020 dollars, the 1984 median is $51,742, and the increase drops to 27%.

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What is the value of education for household income? The Census Bureau's annual survey data for 2019 published in September gives us some interesting insights into this question. The median income for all households with a householder age 25 and older was $67,521.

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We have updated our commentary on household income distribution to include the Census Bureau's release of the 2020 annual data. Our focus was on arithmetic mean (average) household incomes by quintile (and the top 5%) over the 50+ year history of this data series. The analysis offered some fascinating insights into U.S. household incomes. But the classification misses the implications of age for income. Households are by no means locked into the same quintile over time.

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This month, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2020. Last year the median (middle) average household income fell to $67,521. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

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Next week we are taking a hiatus from regularly scheduled updates and will be publishing a series of articles based on the Census Bureau's 2020 Income and Poverty Report. Stay Tuned!

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Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later.

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In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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The latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth that is 138% above the 2009 trough. The nominal Q2 net worth is up 4.3% from the previous quarter and up 19.6% year-over-year.

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Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?

• A) U.S. Official Reserve Assets
• B) Total Mortgages
• C) Taxes Receivable
• D) Student Loans

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Household debt increased by $313B (2.1%) to $14.96 trillion in Q2 2021. There were increases in mortgage balances and auto loans, credit card balances began to tick up, and student loans decreased.

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The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and Income
• Employment, Unemployment, and Hours
• Personal Consumption and Housing
• Sales, Orders, and Inventories

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Let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21, 2020. All but two sectors, hotels and airlines, have recovered since then. Retail has bounced back the fastest, while hotels and airlines are still lagging. Individuals are returning to travel rapidly as more vaccines are administered.

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The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-March, are now available.

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The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

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As a result of the COVID-19 virus and its effects on the market, here's a short analysis of major ETF market sectors and the S&P 500 since February 21.

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The latest price of home heating oil nationwide is $2.82.

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We are having some software issues and as a result, all economic news is delayed slightly. We will back-publish all missed updates once this is resolved. Thank you!

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The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite.

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Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.

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In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.

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Cover retail mutual funds and ETFs in client IRAs, Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts to deliver reliable, sustainable income streams your clients can't outlive.

The big economic number tomorrow will be the Q2 Third Estimate for GDP. The last two quarters are behind us with their real annualized rates of 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% in Q1. What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q2 Third Estimate? Let's take a look at the latest GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.

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This is the second in a multi-part series where we examine pundits' opinions and predictions on the latest topics.

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The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.

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Many of our readers have been experiencing 404 errors on dshort pages. These pages have not disappeared, they are merely being edited and as a result of our current process, it shows as a broken page. Please be sure to check back within a few days to see the newest update.

We are working on a new system that will prevent these errors.

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With the Republican tax bill looming, we've updated this article to include the latest figures and estimates for federal debt and taxes.

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The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinuedThe LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.

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An ETF sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on the ETF marketplace. Click for more info.

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If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.

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Many reports on the cost of education and affordability over the last decade have focused on the rapid growth of educational debt. Here we examine student aid, costs of undergraduate education, and enrollment over time. We've used data from the College Board's annual Trends in Higher Education publications. We've updated this report with the latest data.

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College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we've thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison.

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We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Group’s wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median.

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According to the Census Bureau, 84% of U.S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data.

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Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.

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Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.

One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.

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With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.

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Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.

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With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance.

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According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84% and all three secondary indicators are positive.

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Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.

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The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.

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What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.

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Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. We are now tracking each of the four at the following individual links:

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This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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