The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of May, the labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, down from 62.6% the previous month.

More…

Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.

More…

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.

More…

Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 9, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.23%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 17.73% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.93%.

More…

Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.

More…

May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5

More…

Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in May.

More…

The S&P 500 closed above 6000 for the first time since mid-February. The index posted its second consecutive weekly gain, finishing up 1.5% from the previous Friday.

More…

The yield on the 10-year note ended June 6, 2025 at 4.51%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.04% and the 30-year note ended at 4.97%.

More…

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

More…

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.

More…

The latest employment report showed that 139,000 jobs were added in May, down from 147,000 in April but higher than the expected 126,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, as expected.

More…

The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since September 2023 as exports increased and imports declined. In April, the trade deficit fell 55.5% to -$61.6B. This marks the largest monthly decline since 1992.

More…

The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 36.0% from that peak.

More…

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 49.9—below the forecast of 52.0. This marks the first contraction for the index since June 2024.

More…

The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 53.7, above the 52.3 forecast. The reading marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion and was a noticeable pickup from April's 17-month low.

More…

The ADP employment report revealed that 37,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in May, down from 60,000 in April. This is the lowest level since March 2023 when there was a reduction of 53,000 jobs. The latest reading was lower than the expected 111,000 addition.

More…

Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2025 close.

More…

The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.

More…

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?

More…

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed job openings unexpectedly rose in April, with vacancies increasing to 7.391 million. This marked the first monthly increase since January and was higher than the expected 7.110 million openings. Additionally, hires and layoffs increased, while quits declined.

More…

With the Q1 GDP second estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 207.8%, down slightly from the previous quarter.

More…

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.

More…

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

• The Crestmont Research P/E ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline

More…

Based on the May S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 38.7 is 155% above its arithmetic mean, 178% above its geometric mean, and is in the 99th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

More…

The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.89, up from 1.74 in April.

More…

Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 26.4 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 35.0.

More…

At the end of May, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 164% above its long-term trend, up from 145% in April. This is the largest variance in three months.

More…

Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In May, the MCSI was unchanged at 52.2, ending its four-month streak of declines. Meanwhile, the CCI jumped to 98.0, its largest monthly increase in over four years.

More…

The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of May 31, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.44%.

More…

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.5 in May, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a third straight month. The latest reading was below the forecast of 49.3.

More…

U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in May, but tariffs and trade policy continued to dominate the sector's landscape. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fifth straight month in May at 52.0. The latest reading was lower than the 52.3 forecast.

More…

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of May 23rd, the index was at 7.708, down 1.292 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

More…

The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.5%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

More…

Valid until the market close on June 30, 2025

Consumer sentiment was unchanged from April, ending four straight months of declines. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remained at 52.2 in May, the fourth lowest reading on record.

More…

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a second straight month to its lowest level in four months. The index sank to 40.5 this month from 44.6 in April, falling short of the 45.1 forecast. The latest reading marks the 18th consecutive month the index has contracted.

More…

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in April and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.

More…

With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.80% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.70% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 4.47% nominal and 2.27% real.

More…

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.5% year-over-year in April, marking the lowest level for the index in over four years. This was consistent with the forecast and a slowdown from 2.7% in March. On a monthly basis, the core index was up 0.1%, as expected.

More…

The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.24%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -0.74%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.

More…

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2025 GDP second estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.

More…

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in April, experiencing its largest monthly decrease since June 2022. The index came in at 71.3, the third lowest reading in the series' history.

More…

The U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years to start off 2025. The BEA's second estimate of real gross domestic product showed economic growth decreased at an annual rate of 0.2% in Q1 2025. The latest estimate was higher than the -0.3% forecast and lower than the Q4 final estimate of 2.5%.

More…

FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through April. The latest debt level is at $854.967 billion, down 2.9% from March. This is the third straight month the debt level has declined and the lowest debt level since October.

More…

Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose four points this month to -9 after falling nine points in April. This month's reading was consistent with the forecast.

More…

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® experienced its largest monthly increase in over four years in May. The index rose 12.3 points to 98.0 this month, marking the first monthly rise since November.

More…

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for May. The general business activity index rose nearly 21 points, its largest monthly increase since 2020, but remained in negative territory at -15.3. This marks the fourth straight month of worsening business conditions.

More…

Home prices declined in March as the benchmark national index fell for the first time since January 2023. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% decrease month-over-month (MoM), and a 3.4% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.7% and YoY fell to -1.0%.

More…

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 436.6 in March, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 4.6% from one year ago.

More…

New orders for manufactured durable goods fell to $296.29B in April. This represents a 6.3% decrease from the previous month and a 3.2% rise from one year ago. The latest reading was higher than the projected 7.6% monthly decline.

More…

Existing home sales inched down in April, reaching their lowest level in seven months. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 0.5% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units in April.

More…

New home sales jumped to their highest level in over three years in April. Meanwhile the median price for a new home remained above $400,000 for a fifth straight month.

More…

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity contracted slightly in May, with the composite index at -3. This marks the 21st consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 6 in April to 5 in May.

More…

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.25 in April from +0.03 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from March, and three categories made negative contributions in April.

More…

Home values fell for a second straight month in April, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 12th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in nearly four years.

More…

In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.412 million in April, the lowest level in almost a year. This marks a 4.7% decrease from March and a 3.2% decline compared to one year ago.

More…

In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.361 million in April. This marks a 1.6% increase from March but a 1.7% decrease compared to one year ago.

More…

Nominal retail sales in April were up 0.06% month-over-month (MoM) and up 5.16% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.16% MoM and up 2.76% YoY.

More…

Industrial production was unexpectedly flat in April, lower than the forecasted 0.2% growth. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is up 1.5%.

More…

Builder confidence fell sharply in May as uncertainty stemming from elevated rates, tariffs, building costs, and the cloudy economic outlook dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 18 months.

More…

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for April showed consumer spending inched up last month, with head sales rising 0.1%. This comes on the heels of March's 1.7% surge in spending and was higher than the 0.0% forecast.

More…

The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index rose nearly 22 points but remained negative for a second straight month at -4.0. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -11.3.

More…

Manufacturing activity contracted for a third consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing May survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 1.1 points to -9.2. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -8.2.

More…

Household debt increased by 167 billion (0.93%) in Q1 2025, reaching $18.20 trillion. The overall rise was driven by increases to student loan and mortgage balances.

More…

The Federal Reserve concluded its third meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.

More…

Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up 0.10% month-over-month but was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.03% MoM and down 0.91% YoY.

More…

The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.1%, the lowest level in over five years.

More…

Four of the nine indexes on our emerging markets watch list have posted gains through April 11, 2025. Chile's IPSA is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 11.2%. Brazil's IBOVESPA is in second with a year to date gain of 6.3% while Mexico's BMV IPC is in third with a year to date gain of 3.5%.

More…

This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 31, 2025 close.

More…

When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?

More…

As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.

More…

In the week ending March 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 221,000. This represents a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 234,000 forecast.

More…

Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC which includes annual data from 1984 to 2023. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.

More…

The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.

More…

What is the relationship between education and household income? The Census Bureau’s 2023 annual survey data provides valuable insights into this question. The median household income for individuals aged 25 and older was $82,010, but how does this figure vary based on educational attainment?

More…

The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.

More…

Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.

More…

A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

More…

In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.

More…

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.

More…

As 2023 comes to an end, let’s revisit the top 10 most-read AP charts of the year.

More…

AP Charts and Analysis will be offline this week due to the holidays. We will resume publishing economic and market analysis and publish missed news on 12/26.

More…

The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for September is 2.9%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.2%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.2%.

More…

Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The September average of the five districts is -6.5, down from the previous month.

More…

We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 third estimate) and initial jobless claims through 9/23.

More…

The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for August. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.

More…

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August.

More…

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their August findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.

More…

The latest monthly employment report showed 187,000 nonfarm jobs were added in August. An industry breakdown of that number shows a gain of 151,000 service-providing jobs and a gain of 36,000 goods-producing jobs.

More…

Here's the top 10 most popular AP Charts of 2022.

More…

Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 145.6, up from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -10.3, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.92%, down slightly from last week.

More…

The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.

More…

The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is:

"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"

More…

Next week we are taking a hiatus from regularly scheduled updates and will be publishing a series of articles based on the Census Bureau's 2020 Income and Poverty Report. Stay Tuned!

More…

In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

More…

Let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21, 2020. All but two sectors, hotels and airlines, have recovered since then. Retail has bounced back the fastest, while hotels and airlines are still lagging. Individuals are returning to travel rapidly as more vaccines are administered.

More…

The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

More…

As a result of the COVID-19 virus and its effects on the market, here's a short analysis of major ETF market sectors and the S&P 500 since February 21.

More…

We are having some software issues and as a result, all economic news is delayed slightly. We will back-publish all missed updates once this is resolved. Thank you!

More…

Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.

More…

In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.

More…

Cover retail mutual funds and ETFs in client IRAs, Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts to deliver reliable, sustainable income streams your clients can't outlive.

The big economic number tomorrow will be the Q2 Third Estimate for GDP. The last two quarters are behind us with their real annualized rates of 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% in Q1. What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q2 Third Estimate? Let's take a look at the latest GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.

More…

This is the second in a multi-part series where we examine pundits' opinions and predictions on the latest topics.

More…

The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.

More…

Many of our readers have been experiencing 404 errors on dshort pages. These pages have not disappeared, they are merely being edited and as a result of our current process, it shows as a broken page. Please be sure to check back within a few days to see the newest update.

We are working on a new system that will prevent these errors.

More…

With the Republican tax bill looming, we've updated this article to include the latest figures and estimates for federal debt and taxes.

More…

The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinuedThe LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.

More…

An ETF sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on the ETF marketplace. Click for more info.

More…

If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.

More…

Many reports on the cost of education and affordability over the last decade have focused on the rapid growth of educational debt. Here we examine student aid, costs of undergraduate education, and enrollment over time. We've used data from the College Board's annual Trends in Higher Education publications. We've updated this report with the latest data.

More…

College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we've thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison.

More…

We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Group’s wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median.

More…

According to the Census Bureau, 84% of U.S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data.

More…

Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.

More…

Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.

One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.

More…

With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.

More…

Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.

More…

With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance.

More…

According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84% and all three secondary indicators are positive.

More…

Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.

More…

The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.

More…

What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.

More…

This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

More…

We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

More…