AP Charts & Analysis: Formerly dshort
Charting economic and market trends
Retail Sales Tumble 0.9% in January, Worse Than Expected

by Jennifer Nash, 2/14/25
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for January showed a sharper-than-expected decline, with headline sales falling 0.9%. Meanwhile, December's figures were revised upward to a 0.7% gain. The latest data came in weaker than the anticipated 0.2% drop in consumer spending.
More…
Household Debt Rises to $18.04 Trillion in Q4

by Jennifer Nash, 2/13/25
Household debt increased by $93 billion (0.52%) in Q4 2024, reaching $18.04 trillion. While all debt categories saw quarterly gains, the overall rise was primarily driven by credit card debt.
More…
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Remained Hot in January

by Jennifer Nash, 2/13/25
Wholesale inflation remained hot in January, rising more than expected. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.4% month-over-month, higher than the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.5%, above the 3.2% forecast.
More…
Unemployment Claims Down 7K, Lower Than Expected

by Jennifer Nash, 2/13/25
In the week ending February 8th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 213,000. This represents a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 217,000 forecast.
More…
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI

by Jennifer Nash, 2/12/25
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for January puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 3.00%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 20th straight month. However, inflation now sits just above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.91%.
More…
Real Middle Class Wages as of January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/12/25
This series has been updated to include the January release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,657, down 7.0% from over 50 years ago.
More…
Inside the Consumer Price Index: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/12/25
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance. The pie chart below breaks down the components of the CPI for Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
More…
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Falls Further to 1-Month Low

by Jennifer Nash, 2/12/25
Bitcoin's closing price declined further, dipping just below $96,000, its lowest level in nearly a month. BTC is now up ~1% year to date. Here are the latest charts on three of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share through 2/11/25.
More…
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Heats Up to 3.0% in January

by Jennifer Nash, 2/12/25
Inflation heated up for a fourth straight month in January. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 3.0% year-over-year, higher than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in higher than expected, rising to 3.3% year-over-year.
More…
Baby Boomer Employment Through the Decades

by Jennifer Nash, 2/11/25
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
More…
Employment Trends for the 50+ Workforce: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/11/25
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and nearly one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
More…
Long-Term Employment Trends by Age and Gender: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/11/25
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of January, the labor force participation rate is at 62.6%, up from 62.5% the previous month.
More…
Gasoline Prices Jump to 3.5-Month High

by Jennifer Nash, 2/11/25
Gas prices jumped to their highest level in 3.5 months this week. As of February 10th, the price of regular and premium gas were up 5 and 6 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $72.32, down 1.1% from last week.
More…
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/11/25
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for January. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 143,000.
More…
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Remains but Uncertainty Grows

by Jennifer Nash, 2/11/25
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined for the first time in five months, falling to 102.8 in January. Despite the drop, this marks the third consecutive month the index has remained above its historical average of 97.9, reflecting continued optimism among small business owners.
More…
World Markets Watchlist: February 10, 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/10/25
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
More…
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.3% of Workers in January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/10/25
Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
More…
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/10/25
Let's take a close look at January's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.0% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.0% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
More…
Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/10/25
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
More…
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

by Jennifer Nash, 2/10/25
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of January 31st, the index was at 22.070, down 1.180 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
More…
S&P 500 Snapshot: Another Red Week Despite Midweek Gains

by Jennifer Nash, 2/7/25
The S&P 500 finished the week in the red despite midweek gains, posting a 0.2% loss from last Friday. The index now sits 1.52% below its record close on January 23, 2025 and is up 2.68% year to date.
More…
Treasury Yields Snapshot: February 7, 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/7/25
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
More…
The Big Four Recession Indicators

by Jennifer Nash, 2/7/25
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
More…
The Big Four Recession Indicators: January Employment

by Jennifer Nash, 2/7/25
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
More…
Consumer Sentiment Index Drops to 7-Month Low Amid Inflation Concerns

by Jennifer Nash, 2/7/25
Consumer sentiment declined for the second consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since July, according to the preliminary February report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index fell by 3.3 points (-4.6%), dropping to 67.8 from January's final reading of 71.1, and is down 11.8% from a year ago. The latest reading also came in below the forecasted 71.9.
More…
Employment Report: 143K Jobs Added in January, Fewer Than Expected

by Jennifer Nash, 2/7/25
The latest employment report showed that 143,000 jobs were added in January, falling short of the expected 169,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%.
More…
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/6/25
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the January 2025 close.
More…
Secular Bull and Bear Market Trends: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/6/25
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but fell slightly in January. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
More…
The Total Return Roller Coaster: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/6/25
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,444 for an annualized real return of 9.99%.
More…
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/6/25
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4th, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of January 31st, it was 4.54%.
More…
Buffett Valuation Indicator: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/6/25
With the Q4 GDP advance estimate and the January close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
More…
Home Ownership Rate: 65.7% in Q4 2024

by Jennifer Nash, 2/5/25
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
More…
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Seventh Straight Month in January

by Jennifer Nash, 2/5/25
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
More…
S&P Global Services PMI: Weakest Expansion Since April

by Jennifer Nash, 2/5/25
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
More…
ADP National Employment Report: 183K Private Jobs Added in January

by Jennifer Nash, 2/5/25
The ADP employment report revealed that 183,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in January, higher than the expected 148,000 addition.
More…
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?

by Jennifer Nash, 2/4/25
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
- The Crestmont Research P/E ratio
- The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
- The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
- The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline
More…
Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/4/25
Based on the January S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 41.3 is 173% above its arithmetic mean, 198% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
More…
Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/4/25
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.84, up from 1.76 in December.
More…
P/E10 and Market Valuation: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/4/25
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.1 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.3.
More…
Regression to Trend: S&P 500 179% Above Trend in January

by Jennifer Nash, 2/4/25
At the end of January, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index was 179% above its long-term trend, down from a record high of 186% in December.
More…
Job Openings Drop More Than Expected in December

by Jennifer Nash, 2/4/25
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that job openings fell more than expected in December, while hiring and quits edged higher. Vacancies declined to 7.600 million, down from November's upwardly revised 8.156 million. The December figure came in below the expected 8.010 million and marked the second-lowest level of job openings since January 2021.
More…
Vehicle Sales: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/4/25
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.9% from that peak.
More…
Two Measures of Inflation: December 2024

by Jennifer Nash, 2/3/25
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
More…
Treasury Yields Long-Term Perspective: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 2/3/25
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
More…
ISM Manufacturing Index Expands for First Time Since 2022

by Jennifer Nash, 2/3/25
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
More…
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Expansion to Start New Year

by Jennifer Nash, 2/3/25
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
More…
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes January 2025 Up 2.70%

by Jennifer Nash, 1/31/25
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
More…
Chicago PMI Contracts for 14th Straight Month

by Jennifer Nash, 1/31/25
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
More…
PCE Inflation Rises 2.6% in December as Expected

by Jennifer Nash, 1/31/25
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the end of 2024. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in December and 0.3% from November, aligning with expectations.
More…
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in December

by Jennifer Nash, 1/31/25
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
More…
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in December

by Jennifer Nash, 1/31/25
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
More…
Q4 Advance Estimate: GDP Per Capita versus GDP

by Jennifer Nash, 1/30/25
The advance estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.25%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.66%, a slowdown from 2.47% for the Q3 headline number.
More…
An Inside Look at the Q4 2024 GDP Advance Estimate

by Jennifer Nash, 1/30/25
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP advance estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
More…
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall for First Time in Five Months

by Jennifer Nash, 1/30/25
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
More…
Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.3%, Below Forecast

by Jennifer Nash, 1/30/25
The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the fourth quarter of 2024. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in Q4 2024, according to the advance estimate. The latest estimate is below the forecasted 2.7% growth and is slower than the Q3 final estimate of 3.1%.
More…
The Fed’s Latest Rate Decision: January 29, 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 1/29/25
The Federal Reserve concluded its first meeting of 2025 by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, marking the first time in four meetings that the Fed has not cut interest rates.
More…
Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: January 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 1/28/25
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In January, the MCSI fell for the first time in six months to 71.1. Meanwhile, the CCI dropped for a second straight month to 104.1.
More…
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Remained Soft in January

by Jennifer Nash, 1/28/25
Fifth district manufacturing activity remained soft in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose to -4 this month from -10 in December. This month's reading was better than the forecast of -13 and is the highest reading since May.
More…
Consumer Confidence Falls Further in January

by Jennifer Nash, 1/28/25
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
More…
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Hits 18th Consecutive All-Time High in November

by Jennifer Nash, 1/28/25
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
More…
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3% in November

by Jennifer Nash, 1/28/25
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 433.4 in November, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.3 from the previous month and are up 4.2% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was flat month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
More…
Durable Goods Orders: December 2024

by Jennifer Nash, 1/28/25
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
More…
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Business Activity Reaches Highest Level Since October 2021

by Jennifer Nash, 1/27/25
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for January. The latest general business activity index came in at 14.1, the highest level for the index since October 2021. This marks the second consecutive month in expansion territory following 31 straight months of contraction.
More…
New Home Sales Up 3.6% in December; Beats Forecast

by Jennifer Nash, 1/27/25
The December release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000 units, beating the 669,000 forecast. New home sales are up 3.6% from a revised rate of 674,000 in November and are up 6.7% from one year ago.
More…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Economic Growth Increased in December

by Jennifer Nash, 1/27/25
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.15 in December from -0.01 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from November and two categories made positive contributions in December. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was increased to -0.13 in December form -0.26 in November.
More…
Existing Home Sales Up for 3rd Straight Month in December

by Jennifer Nash, 1/24/25
Existing home sales rose for the third month in a row to close out 2024. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 2.2% from November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units in December. This figure came in just above the expected 4.19 million. Existing home sales are up 9.3% compared to one year ago.
More…
Margin Debt Up 0.9% in December, Hits 3-Year High

by Jennifer Nash, 1/24/25
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is at $899.168 billion, the highest level since December 2021. Margin debt was up 0.9% month-over-month (MoM) and up 28.3% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, the debt level was up 0.9% MoM and up 24.7% YoY.
More…
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Fell at Steady Pace in January

by Jennifer Nash, 1/23/25
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey fell at a steady pace in January, with the composite index remaining at -5, unchanged from December. Despite this, future expectations stayed positive, though they dipped slightly from 17 in December to 15 in January.
More…
America's Driving Habits: November 2024

by Jennifer Nash, 1/21/25
Travel on all roads and streets increased in November. The 12-month moving average was up 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.04% MoM and up 0.43% YoY.
More…
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Industrial Production Jumps in December

by Jennifer Nash, 1/17/25
Industrial production jumped 0.9% in December to its highest level in six months, increasing much more than the expected 0.3% growth. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is up 0.6%.
More…
Building Permits Tick Down 0.7% in December

by Jennifer Nash, 1/17/25
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits ticked down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.483 million in December. This marks a 0.7% decrease from November and a 3.1% decline compared to one year ago.
More…
Housing Starts Jump 15.8% in December

by Jennifer Nash, 1/17/25
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.499 million in December, the highest level in ten months. This marks a 15.8% increase from November and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.
More…
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Value Falls to 3.5 Year Low

by Jennifer Nash, 1/16/25
In December, nominal home values increased for a 21st straight months to a new all-time high. However, once we adjust for inflation, "real" home values declined for an 8th consecutive month to their lowest level since June 2021.
More…
Median Household Purchasing Power for the 50 States and DC: 2023 Update

by Jennifer Nash, 1/16/25
Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC which includes annual data from 1984 to 2023. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.
More…
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.1% in December

by Jennifer Nash, 1/16/25
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
More…
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Inches to 9-Month High in January

by Jennifer Nash, 1/16/25
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
More…
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Jumps to Highest Level Since April 2021

by Jennifer Nash, 1/16/25
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0.
More…
Median Household Income by State: 2023 Update

by Jennifer Nash, 1/15/25
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
More…
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Declines in January

by Jennifer Nash, 1/15/25
Manufacturing activity declined in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing January survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was fell nearly 15 points to -12.6. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 2.7.
More…
Household Incomes 2023: The Value of Higher Education

by Jennifer Nash, 1/14/25
What is the relationship between education and household income? The Census Bureau’s 2023 annual survey data provides valuable insights into this question. The median household income for individuals aged 25 and older was $82,010, but how does this figure vary based on educational attainment?
More…
Household Incomes: The Decline of the "Middle Class" 2023 Update

by Jennifer Nash, 1/14/25
The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.
More…
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2023

by Jennifer Nash, 1/13/25
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
More…
U.S. Household Incomes: A 50+ Year Perspective

by Jennifer Nash, 1/9/25
A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
More…
Unemployment Claims Drop to 11-Month Low

by Jennifer Nash, 1/9/25
In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.
More…
The Four Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?

by Jennifer Nash, 1/9/25
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.
More…
Trade Balance Jumps 6.2% in November

by Jennifer Nash, 1/7/25
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In November, the trade deficit expanded 6.2% to -$78.19B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -$78.30B.
More…
CB Leading Economic Index: Small Rise in November

by Jennifer Nash, 12/19/24
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.
More…
The Fed's Financial Accounts: What Are Uncle Sam's Largest Assets?

by Jennifer Nash, 6/7/24
Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?
- A) U.S. Official Reserve Assets
- B) Total Mortgages
- C) Taxes Receivable
- D) Student Loans
More…
Household Net Worth Q1 2024: The "Real" Story

by Jennifer Nash, 6/7/24
As of Q1 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 171% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 86% since the 2009 trough.
More…
Holiday Greetings and Temporary Hiatus

by , 12/16/23
AP Charts and Analysis will be offline this week due to the holidays. We will resume publishing economic and market analysis and publish missed news on 12/26.
More…
Underlying Inflation Gauge Falls for 15th Straight Month

by Jennifer Nash, 10/12/23
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for September is 2.9%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.2%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.2%.
More…
Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview: September 2023

by Jennifer Nash, 9/28/23
Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The September average of the five districts is -6.5, down from the previous month.
More…
The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index

by Jennifer Nash, 9/28/23
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 third estimate) and initial jobless claims through 9/23.
More…
The "Real" Goods on the August Durable Goods Data

by Jennifer Nash, 9/27/23
The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for August. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.
More…
Breaking Down the Components of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index

by Jennifer Nash, 9/25/23
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August.
More…
A Long-Term Look: Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts

by Jennifer Nash, 9/19/23
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their August findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.
More…
Employment in Goods and Services Industries Since 1939

by Jennifer Nash, 9/7/23
The latest monthly employment report showed 187,000 nonfarm jobs were added in August. An industry breakdown of that number shows a gain of 151,000 service-providing jobs and a gain of 36,000 goods-producing jobs.
More…
Gasoline Volume Sales Down 8.9% YoY

by Jill Mislinski, 1/21/22
The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.
More…
2020 Update: Median Home Price and Salary Required in 25 Major Cities

by Jill Mislinski, 10/29/21
The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is:
"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"
More…
Not Your Regularly Scheduled Programming

by Jill Mislinski, 10/24/21
Next week we are taking a hiatus from regularly scheduled updates and will be publishing a series of articles based on the Census Bureau's 2020 Income and Poverty Report. Stay Tuned!
More…
A Closer Look at Yesterday's ADP Employment Report

by Jill Mislinski, 10/7/21
In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
More…
UPDATE: COVID-19, The Markets, and The Economy

by Jill Mislinski, 6/16/21
Let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21, 2020. All but two sectors, hotels and airlines, have recovered since then. Retail has bounced back the fastest, while hotels and airlines are still lagging. Individuals are returning to travel rapidly as more vaccines are administered.
More…
Join us tomorrow for the AP Thought Leader Summit - a FREE virtual event!
by Team, 10/5/20
Join us for a series of virtual sessions during the AP Thought Leader Summit 2020, October 6-7, 2020. This FREE event is for financial advisors to learn and earn CE credits for sessions from the industry's most influential thought leaders to help grow and manage their practice. Register here!
More…
S&P 500 ETFs: May Update

by Jill Mislinski, 6/4/20
The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).
More…
Updated: The Effect of Coronavirus on Key Market Sectors

by Jill Mislinski, 3/16/20
As a result of the COVID-19 virus and its effects on the market, here's a short analysis of major ETF market sectors and the S&P 500 since February 21.
More…
Millennials and the Labor Force: A Look at the Trends

by Jill Mislinski, 10/10/18
Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.
More…
Trends in the Teenage Workforce Update

by Jill Mislinski, 10/10/18
In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.
More…
Groundbreaking New Portfolio Retirement Income Guarantee
by Sponsored Content by RetireOne, 9/18/18
Cover retail mutual funds and ETFs in client IRAs, Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts to deliver reliable, sustainable income streams your clients can't outlive.
How is this even possible? Learn more
More…
Forecasting GDP: Gazing into the Crystal Ball

by Jill Mislinski, 6/27/18
The big economic number tomorrow will be the Q2 Third Estimate for GDP. The last two quarters are behind us with their real annualized rates of 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% in Q1. What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q2 Third Estimate? Let's take a look at the latest GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.
More…
Next Recession? Pundit Prognoses

by , 4/15/18
This is the second in a multi-part series where we examine pundits' opinions and predictions on the latest topics.
More…
Bitcoin Bets: Which Pundit Is Right?

by , 3/19/18
The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.
More…
A Note on 404 Errors
by Jill Mislinski, 3/13/18
Many of our readers have been experiencing 404 errors on dshort pages. These pages have not disappeared, they are merely being edited and as a result of our current process, it shows as a broken page. Please be sure to check back within a few days to see the newest update.
We are working on a new system that will prevent these errors.
More…
Debt, Taxes and Politics: An Updated Perspective on Federal Tax History

by Jill Mislinski, 11/13/17
With the Republican tax bill looming, we've updated this article to include the latest figures and estimates for federal debt and taxes.
More…
The Labor Market Conditions Index Discontinued

by Jill Mislinski, 8/8/17
The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinuedThe LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.
More…
Earn $100 by Participating in an APViewpoint Focus Group

by Jill Mislinski, 5/16/17
An ETF sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on the ETF marketplace. Click for more info.
More…
Visit Us At Morningstar

by Jill Mislinski, 4/26/17
If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.
More…
Update: A Closer Look at the Cost of Education

by Jill Mislinski, 3/21/17
Many reports on the cost of education and affordability over the last decade have focused on the rapid growth of educational debt. Here we examine student aid, costs of undergraduate education, and enrollment over time. We've used data from the College Board's annual Trends in Higher Education publications. We've updated this report with the latest data.
More…
The dshort Daily Digest is Back

by Jill Mislinski, 1/13/17
We are reintroducing the dshort Daily Digest! This daily email will include the most recent updates from dshort. Sign up now!
More…
Brace Yourself: Our Latest Look at Student Debt

by Jill Mislinski, 12/31/16
College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we've thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison.
More…
Housing Affordability in Today's Largest Cities

by Jill Mislinski, 12/21/16
We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Group’s wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median.
More…
Metropolitan Home Prices and the Zillow Home Value Index

by Jill Mislinski, 11/21/16
According to the Census Bureau, 84% of U.S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data.
More…
Snapshots of Market History: The Bear Bottoming Process

by Doug Short, 10/26/16
Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.
More…
Happiness Revisited: A Household Income of $75K?

by Doug Short, 10/21/16
Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.
One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.
More…
The Financial Plight of White Working Class Males

by Doug Short, 10/5/16
With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.
More…
Validating the S&P Composite Stock Price Index

by Doug Short, 9/1/16
Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.
More…
Medals, GDP, and the 2016 Rio Olympics

by Jill Mislinski, 8/15/16
With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance.
More…
Best Stock Market Indicator Update

by Jill Mislinski, 7/22/16
According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84% and all three secondary indicators are positive.
More…
49 Years of Income and Home Values

by Jill Mislinski, 5/25/16
Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.
More…
Equity Valuations, Recessions and Stock Market Declines

by Doug Short, 4/12/16
Note: In response to an email, I've updated the data in this article through the March month-end numbers and at the launch of the Q1 2016 earnings season.
Last year I had a fascinating conversation with Neile Wolfe, of Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC. Based on the underlying data in the adjacent chart, Neile made some cogent observations about the historical relationships between equity valuations, recessions and market prices:
More…
Industrial Production: Those Ugly Annual Benchmark Revisions and the Heightened Risk of Recession

by Doug Short, 4/4/16
The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.
More…
Median Household Income Growth: Deflating the American Dream

by Doug Short, 9/23/15
What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.
More…
Median Household Income Growth: Deflating the American Dream

by Doug Short, 9/16/14
What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: Income and Poverty in the United States: 2013. Last year the median (middle) household income was $51,939 -- a 1.8% year-over-year increase that shrinks to 0.3% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.
More…
P/E: So Many Choices: Part 2
by Ed Easterling, 4/27/11
This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.
More…
P/E: So Many Choices: Part 1
by Ed Easterling, 4/26/11
We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.
More…
Sponsored Content
Editorial Calendar
View Full Calendar Eastern Time Zone
+ Add the editorial calendar to your Google Calendar.
Upcoming Webinars View All








