The S&P 500 opened Friday higher than its Thursday close and stayed steady throughout the day. The index is up 3% from Thursday, is 18.5% below its record close, and is down 17.9% YTD.

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We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes Initial Jobless Claims through 6/18.

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This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 151.3, down 5.9 from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -5.9, down from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.29%, also down from last week.

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The June Final Report came in at 50.0, down 8.4 (14.4%) from the May Final. Investing.com had forecast 50.2. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 41.7 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 41.0 percent below the geometric mean.

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This morning's release of the May New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 5696K, up 10.7% month-over-month from a revised 629K in April. The Investing.com forecast was for 588K. The median home price is now at $449K.

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As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020

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The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

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This morning's seasonally adjusted 229K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 227K.

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Here's the latest on the largest cryptocurrencies by market share.

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The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and Income
• Employment, Unemployment, and Hours
• Personal Consumption and Housing
• Sales, Orders, and Inventories

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This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to +0.01 in May from +0.40 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in May, and two categories deteriorated from April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.20 in May from +0.40 in April

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The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.

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This morning's report on Industrial Production for May shows a 0.25% increase month-over-month, which was worse than the Investing.com consensus of 0.4%. The year-over-year change is at 5.8%, down from last month's YoY increase. 

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May's ZHVI came in at $349,816, up 1.5% from the previous month and up 20.7% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.85% MoM and 14.8% YoY.

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.549M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.701M and a 14.4% decrease from the previous month's 1.810M. 

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.695M was down 7% from the April reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.785M. 

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The latest Manufacturing Index came in at -3.3, down 5.9 from last month's 2.6. The 3-month moving average came in at 5.6, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at -6.8, down from the previous month's 2.5.

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Month-over-month nominal sales in April were up 0.90% and up 8.19% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.57% and were down 0.04% YoY.

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The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -0.27% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of 0.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.52% MoM.

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This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -1.2 was an increase of 10.4 from the previous month's -11.6. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 3.0.

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As of June 13, the price of Regular and Premium were up 13 cents each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.43 and Georgia has the cheapest at $4.47. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 120.93 and is up 2.1% from last week.

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The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.

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This morning's release of the May Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was up 1.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from a 0.8% change last month. It is at 16.4% year-over-year, up from a 15.5% increase last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

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Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

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With the Q1 GDP Second Estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down from 216.4% the previous quarter.

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We are now seeing the highest Headline inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.58%, up from 8.26% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.02%, down from 6.16% the previous month.

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We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 390K.

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Let's take a closer look at last week's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.

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Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns.

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The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -87.08B was better than the -89.5B Investing.com forecast.

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The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 2005. Over fifteen years later, it is now down 23% from that peak.

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Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $15,778 for an annualized real return of 9.2%.

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The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for April puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 8.26%. It is well above the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 2.01%.

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This commentary has been updated to include Friday morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. May saw 390K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. The Investing.com consensus was for 325K jobs gained.

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Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

• The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline

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Quick take: Based on the May S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 134% above its arithmetic mean and at the 99th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.

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The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 390K nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 331K service-providing jobs and a gain of 59K goods-producing jobs.

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Note: This update includes May close data.

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The May US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 53.4 percent, down slightly from the final April estimate of 55.6.

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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at 55.9 percent, down 1.2 from 57.1 last month. Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 56.4 percent.

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This morning's employment report for May showed a 390K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was above the Investing.com forecast of 325K jobs added. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%.

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Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.

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The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for April, released Friday, shows that core inflation is above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 6.27%. The April Core Consumer Price Index release is currently higher, at 8.26%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

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Quick take: At the end of May the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 131% above its long-term trend, down from 151% above the previous month.

About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.

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Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull?

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This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for May. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 56.1, an increase of 0.7 from 55.4 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 54.5.

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The May US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.0, down 2.2 from the final April figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.

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The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through April, is now available.

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Valid until the market close on June 30, 2022.

The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 0.01% after a loss of 8.8% in April. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.

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Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for May is 0.46, down from the previous month.

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The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 60.3 in May from 56.4 in April, which is still in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.

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Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.

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The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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With the release of this morning's report on April's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.25% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 0% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.42% nominal and an increase from the -0.48% real change. The year-over-year metrics are -0.54% nominal and -6.41% real.

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The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for April was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.25% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 6.27% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 4.91%, well above the Fed's 2% target rate.

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Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in April rose 0.52% and is up 8.4% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.27%. The real number is up 2.0% year-over-year. October through March revisions were made.

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The Second Estimate for Q1 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -1.5% (-1.51% to two decimal places), a decrease from 6.9% (6.89% to two decimal places) for the Q4 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 1.3%.

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We've updated this series to include the April release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $46,240, down 8.0% from 45-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.

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Take a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite since 2000. We've updated this through the April 29, 2022 close.

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The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).

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The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

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Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from the latest Employment Report for April. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.

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At present, multiple jobholders account for 4.8 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the current relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.

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The latest full set UIG for April is 4.86% while the prices-only measure is 5.79%. Current Headline CPI is now 8.26% and Core CPI is 6.16%.

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This morning we have the ADP April estimate of 247K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, a decrease over the ADP revised March figure of 479K.

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The Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -1.4% (-1.40% to two decimals), down from 6.9% (6.89% to two decimals) in Q4 2021. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -1.61% to two decimal points.

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Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q1 2022.

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In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the March 31, 2022 close.

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"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +4.1% (+9.5 billion vehicle miles) for January 2022 as compared with January 2021. Travel for the month is estimated to be 240.6 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.30% month-over-month and up 12.7% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.1% month-over-month and up 11.7% year-over-year.

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The latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth that is 93% above the 2009 trough. The nominal Q4 net worth is up 2.1% from the previous quarter and up 7.3% year-over-year.

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What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

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The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.

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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 84 is up 1 from last month's 83.

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The Census Bureau has posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments.

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The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is:

"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"

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The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. In terms of income, this class has not gained much in recent decades. Let's take a closer look at a troubling aspect of the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data, issued in September. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting, which began in 1967, to the release of the annual data for 2020.

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The median US income in 2020 was $67,521, up from $22,415 in 1984 — a 201% rise over the 36-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2020 dollars, the 1984 median is $51,742, and the increase drops to 27%.

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What is the value of education for household income? The Census Bureau's annual survey data for 2019 published in September gives us some interesting insights into this question. The median income for all households with a householder age 25 and older was $67,521.

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We have updated our commentary on household income distribution to include the Census Bureau's release of the 2020 annual data. Our focus was on arithmetic mean (average) household incomes by quintile (and the top 5%) over the 50+ year history of this data series. The analysis offered some fascinating insights into U.S. household incomes. But the classification misses the implications of age for income. Households are by no means locked into the same quintile over time.

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This month, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2020. Last year the median (middle) average household income fell to $67,521. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

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Next week we are taking a hiatus from regularly scheduled updates and will be publishing a series of articles based on the Census Bureau's 2020 Income and Poverty Report. Stay Tuned!

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Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later.

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In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?

• A) U.S. Official Reserve Assets
• B) Total Mortgages
• C) Taxes Receivable
• D) Student Loans

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Household debt increased by $313B (2.1%) to $14.96 trillion in Q2 2021. There were increases in mortgage balances and auto loans, credit card balances began to tick up, and student loans decreased.

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Let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21, 2020. All but two sectors, hotels and airlines, have recovered since then. Retail has bounced back the fastest, while hotels and airlines are still lagging. Individuals are returning to travel rapidly as more vaccines are administered.

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The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

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As a result of the COVID-19 virus and its effects on the market, here's a short analysis of major ETF market sectors and the S&P 500 since February 21.

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The latest price of home heating oil nationwide is $2.82.

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We are having some software issues and as a result, all economic news is delayed slightly. We will back-publish all missed updates once this is resolved. Thank you!

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The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite.

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Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.

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In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.

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Cover retail mutual funds and ETFs in client IRAs, Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts to deliver reliable, sustainable income streams your clients can't outlive.

The big economic number tomorrow will be the Q2 Third Estimate for GDP. The last two quarters are behind us with their real annualized rates of 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% in Q1. What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q2 Third Estimate? Let's take a look at the latest GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.

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This is the second in a multi-part series where we examine pundits' opinions and predictions on the latest topics.

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The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.

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Many of our readers have been experiencing 404 errors on dshort pages. These pages have not disappeared, they are merely being edited and as a result of our current process, it shows as a broken page. Please be sure to check back within a few days to see the newest update.

We are working on a new system that will prevent these errors.

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With the Republican tax bill looming, we've updated this article to include the latest figures and estimates for federal debt and taxes.

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The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinuedThe LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.

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An ETF sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on the ETF marketplace. Click for more info.

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If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.

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Many reports on the cost of education and affordability over the last decade have focused on the rapid growth of educational debt. Here we examine student aid, costs of undergraduate education, and enrollment over time. We've used data from the College Board's annual Trends in Higher Education publications. We've updated this report with the latest data.

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College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we've thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison.

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We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Group’s wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median.

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According to the Census Bureau, 84% of U.S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data.

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Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.

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Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.

One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.

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With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.

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Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.

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With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance.

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According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84% and all three secondary indicators are positive.

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Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.

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The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.

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What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.

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Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. We are now tracking each of the four at the following individual links:

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This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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