AP Charts & Analysis: Formerly dshort
Charting economic and market trends
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Cooler Than Expected in May

by Jennifer Nash, 6/12/25
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
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Unemployment Claims Unchanged from Previous Week, Higher Than Expected

by Jennifer Nash, 6/12/25
In the week ending June 7th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 248,000, remaining at their highest level in eight months. This is unchanged from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 242,000 forecast.
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Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI

by Jennifer Nash, 6/11/25
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
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Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/11/25
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
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Real Middle Class Wages as of May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/11/25
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
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Inside the Consumer Price Index: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/11/25
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
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Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Above $100K for 5 Weeks

by Jennifer Nash, 6/11/25
Bitcoin's closing price has remained above $100,000 for five weeks, the longest streak in history. BTC is up ~17% year to date and is ~1% below its record high from May 2025.
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Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises to 2.4% in May, Lower Than Expected

by Jennifer Nash, 6/11/25
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
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Baby Boomer Employment Through the Decades: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/10/25
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
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Gas Prices Drop for Third Straight Week

by Jennifer Nash, 6/10/25
Gas prices dropped for a third straight week this week. As of June 9th, the price of regular gas was down 2 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
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Long-Term Employment Trends by Age and Gender: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/10/25
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of May, the labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, down from 62.6% the previous month.
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Employment Trends for the 50+ Workforce: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/10/25
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
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NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Recovered Slightly in May

by Jennifer Nash, 6/10/25
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
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World Markets Watchlist: June 9, 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/9/25
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 9, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.23%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 17.73% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.93%.
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U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/9/25
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
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A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/9/25
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
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Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.2% of Workers in May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/9/25
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in May.
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S&P 500 Snapshot: Back Above 6000

by Jennifer Nash, 6/6/25
The S&P 500 closed above 6000 for the first time since mid-February. The index posted its second consecutive weekly gain, finishing up 1.5% from the previous Friday.
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Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 6, 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/6/25
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 6, 2025 at 4.51%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.04% and the 30-year note ended at 4.97%.
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The Big Four Recession Indicators

by Jennifer Nash, 6/6/25
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
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The Big Four Recession Indicators: May Employment

by Jennifer Nash, 6/6/25
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
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Employment Report: 139K Jobs Added in May, More Than Expected

by Jennifer Nash, 6/6/25
The latest employment report showed that 139,000 jobs were added in May, down from 147,000 in April but higher than the expected 126,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, as expected.
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Trade Deficit Shrinks to Smallest Level Since September 2023

by Jennifer Nash, 6/5/25
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since September 2023 as exports increased and imports declined. In April, the trade deficit fell 55.5% to -$61.6B. This marks the largest monthly decline since 1992.
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Vehicle Sales: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/4/25
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 36.0% from that peak.
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ISM Services PMI Contracts for First Time Since June 2024

by Jennifer Nash, 6/4/25
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 49.9—below the forecast of 52.0. This marks the first contraction for the index since June 2024.
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S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Strengthens in May

by Jennifer Nash, 6/4/25
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 53.7, above the 52.3 forecast. The reading marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion and was a noticeable pickup from April's 17-month low.
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ADP National Employment Report: 37K Private Jobs Added in May

by Jennifer Nash, 6/4/25
The ADP employment report revealed that 37,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in May, down from 60,000 in April. This is the lowest level since March 2023 when there was a reduction of 53,000 jobs. The latest reading was lower than the expected 111,000 addition.
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The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/3/25
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2025 close.
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Secular Bull and Bear Market Trends: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/3/25
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
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The Total Return Roller Coaster: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/3/25
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?
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Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise in April

by Jennifer Nash, 6/3/25
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed job openings unexpectedly rose in April, with vacancies increasing to 7.391 million. This marked the first monthly increase since January and was higher than the expected 7.110 million openings. Additionally, hires and layoffs increased, while quits declined.
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Buffett Valuation Indicator: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/3/25
With the Q1 GDP second estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 207.8%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
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Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/3/25
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
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Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?

by Jennifer Nash, 6/2/25
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
- The Crestmont Research P/E ratio
- The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
- The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
- The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline
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Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/2/25
Based on the May S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 38.7 is 155% above its arithmetic mean, 178% above its geometric mean, and is in the 99th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
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Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/2/25
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.89, up from 1.74 in April.
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P/E10 and Market Valuation: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/2/25
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 26.4 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 35.0.
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Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 164% Above Trend in May

by Jennifer Nash, 6/2/25
At the end of May, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 164% above its long-term trend, up from 145% in April. This is the largest variance in three months.
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Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/2/25
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In May, the MCSI was unchanged at 52.2, ending its four-month streak of declines. Meanwhile, the CCI jumped to 98.0, its largest monthly increase in over four years.
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10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/2/25
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of May 31, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.44%.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slipped Further into Contraction in May

by Jennifer Nash, 6/2/25
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.5 in May, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a third straight month. The latest reading was below the forecast of 49.3.
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S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Growth Picked Up in May

by Jennifer Nash, 6/2/25
U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in May, but tariffs and trade policy continued to dominate the sector's landscape. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fifth straight month in May at 52.0. The latest reading was lower than the 52.3 forecast.
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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

by Jennifer Nash, 6/2/25
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of May 23rd, the index was at 7.708, down 1.292 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
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Two Measures of Inflation: April 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 6/2/25
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.5%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
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Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: May 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 5/30/25
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
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Consumer Sentiment Unchanged from April, Still Near Record Lows

by Jennifer Nash, 5/30/25
Consumer sentiment was unchanged from April, ending four straight months of declines. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remained at 52.2 in May, the fourth lowest reading on record.
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Chicago PMI Sinks to 4-Month Low

by Jennifer Nash, 5/30/25
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a second straight month to its lowest level in four months. The index sank to 40.5 this month from 44.6 in April, falling short of the 45.1 forecast. The latest reading marks the 18th consecutive month the index has contracted.
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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.3% in April

by Jennifer Nash, 5/30/25
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in April and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
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Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.7% in April

by Jennifer Nash, 5/30/25
With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.80% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.70% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 4.47% nominal and 2.27% real.
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Core PCE Inflation Rises 2.5% in April, Lowest Level Since 2021

by Jennifer Nash, 5/30/25
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.5% year-over-year in April, marking the lowest level for the index in over four years. This was consistent with the forecast and a slowdown from 2.7% in March. On a monthly basis, the core index was up 0.1%, as expected.
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GDP Per Capita: Q1 2025 Second Estimate

by Jennifer Nash, 5/29/25
The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.24%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -0.74%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.
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An Inside Look at the Q1 2025 GDP Second Estimate

by Jennifer Nash, 5/29/25
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2025 GDP second estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.
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Pending Home Sales Sink 6.3% in April

by Jennifer Nash, 5/29/25
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in April, experiencing its largest monthly decrease since June 2022. The index came in at 71.3, the third lowest reading in the series' history.
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Q1 GDP Second Estimate: Real GDP at -0.2%, Higher Than Expected

by Jennifer Nash, 5/29/25
The U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years to start off 2025. The BEA's second estimate of real gross domestic product showed economic growth decreased at an annual rate of 0.2% in Q1 2025. The latest estimate was higher than the -0.3% forecast and lower than the Q4 final estimate of 2.5%.
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Margin Debt Falls for Third Straight Month in April

by Jennifer Nash, 5/28/25
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through April. The latest debt level is at $854.967 billion, down 2.9% from March. This is the third straight month the debt level has declined and the lowest debt level since October.
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Slowed in May

by Jennifer Nash, 5/28/25
Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose four points this month to -9 after falling nine points in April. This month's reading was consistent with the forecast.
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Consumer Confidence Sees Largest Monthly Increase in Over Four Years

by Jennifer Nash, 5/27/25
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® experienced its largest monthly increase in over four years in May. The index rose 12.3 points to 98.0 this month, marking the first monthly rise since November.
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Business Conditions Continued to Worsen in May

by Jennifer Nash, 5/27/25
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for May. The general business activity index rose nearly 21 points, its largest monthly increase since 2020, but remained in negative territory at -15.3. This marks the fourth straight month of worsening business conditions.
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S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: 3.4% Annual Gain in March

by Jennifer Nash, 5/27/25
Home prices declined in March as the benchmark national index fell for the first time since January 2023. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% decrease month-over-month (MoM), and a 3.4% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.7% and YoY fell to -1.0%.
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FHFA House Price Index Down 0.1% in March

by Jennifer Nash, 5/27/25
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 436.6 in March, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 4.6% from one year ago.
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Durable Goods Orders: April 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 5/27/25
New orders for manufactured durable goods fell to $296.29B in April. This represents a 6.3% decrease from the previous month and a 3.2% rise from one year ago. The latest reading was higher than the projected 7.6% monthly decline.
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Existing Home Sales Inch Down 0.5% in April

by Jennifer Nash, 5/27/25
Existing home sales inched down in April, reaching their lowest level in seven months. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 0.5% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units in April.
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New Home Sales Jump to Three-Year High in April

by Jennifer Nash, 5/27/25
New home sales jumped to their highest level in over three years in April. Meanwhile the median price for a new home remained above $400,000 for a fifth straight month.
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Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Contracted Slightly in May

by Jennifer Nash, 5/27/25
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity contracted slightly in May, with the composite index at -3. This marks the 21st consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 6 in April to 5 in May.
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Economic Growth Decreased in April

by Jennifer Nash, 5/27/25
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.25 in April from +0.03 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from March, and three categories made negative contributions in April.
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Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Values Near 4-Year Low

by Jennifer Nash, 5/20/25
Home values fell for a second straight month in April, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 12th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in nearly four years.
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Building Permits Drop 4.7% in April

by Jennifer Nash, 5/16/25
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.412 million in April, the lowest level in almost a year. This marks a 4.7% decrease from March and a 3.2% decline compared to one year ago.
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Housing Starts Inch Up 1.6% in April

by Jennifer Nash, 5/16/25
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.361 million in April. This marks a 1.6% increase from March but a 1.7% decrease compared to one year ago.
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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Fall 0.2% in April

by Jennifer Nash, 5/15/25
Nominal retail sales in April were up 0.06% month-over-month (MoM) and up 5.16% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.16% MoM and up 2.76% YoY.
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NAHB Housing Market Index: Growing Uncertainty Drags Down Builder Confidence

by Jennifer Nash, 5/15/25
Builder confidence fell sharply in May as uncertainty stemming from elevated rates, tariffs, building costs, and the cloudy economic outlook dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 18 months.
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Retail Sales Inch Up 0.1% in April, Higher Than Expected

by Jennifer Nash, 5/15/25
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for April showed consumer spending inched up last month, with head sales rising 0.1%. This comes on the heels of March's 1.7% surge in spending and was higher than the 0.0% forecast.
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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Remained Weak in May

by Jennifer Nash, 5/15/25
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index rose nearly 22 points but remained negative for a second straight month at -4.0. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -11.3.
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Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Continued to Decline Modestly in May

by Jennifer Nash, 5/15/25
Manufacturing activity contracted for a third consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing May survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 1.1 points to -9.2. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -8.2.
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Household Debt Rises to $18.20 Trillion in Q1

by Jennifer Nash, 5/13/25
Household debt increased by 167 billion (0.93%) in Q1 2025, reaching $18.20 trillion. The overall rise was driven by increases to student loan and mortgage balances.
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Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: May 7, 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 5/7/25
The Federal Reserve concluded its third meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
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America's Driving Habits: March 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 5/6/25
Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up 0.10% month-over-month but was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.03% MoM and down 0.91% YoY.
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Home Ownership Rate Falls to Five-Year Low

by Jennifer Nash, 4/28/25
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.1%, the lowest level in over five years.
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Emerging Markets Watchlist: April 11, 2025

by Jennifer Nash, 4/14/25
Four of the nine indexes on our emerging markets watch list have posted gains through April 11, 2025. Chile's IPSA is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 11.2%. Brazil's IBOVESPA is in second with a year to date gain of 6.3% while Mexico's BMV IPC is in third with a year to date gain of 3.5%.
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The Fed's Financial Accounts: What Are Uncle Sam's Largest Assets?

by Jennifer Nash, 3/20/25
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
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Household Net Worth Q4 2024: The "Real" Story

by Jennifer Nash, 3/14/25
As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.
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Unemployment Claims Down 21K, Lower Than Expected

by Jennifer Nash, 3/6/25
In the week ending March 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 221,000. This represents a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 234,000 forecast.
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Median Household Purchasing Power for the 50 States and DC: 2023 Update

by Jennifer Nash, 1/16/25
Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC which includes annual data from 1984 to 2023. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.
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Median Household Income by State: 2023 Update

by Jennifer Nash, 1/15/25
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
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Household Incomes 2023: The Value of Higher Education

by Jennifer Nash, 1/14/25
What is the relationship between education and household income? The Census Bureau’s 2023 annual survey data provides valuable insights into this question. The median household income for individuals aged 25 and older was $82,010, but how does this figure vary based on educational attainment?
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Household Incomes: The Decline of the "Middle Class" 2023 Update

by Jennifer Nash, 1/14/25
The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.
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Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2023

by Jennifer Nash, 1/13/25
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
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U.S. Household Incomes: A 50+ Year Perspective

by Jennifer Nash, 1/9/25
A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
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Unemployment Claims Drop to 11-Month Low

by Jennifer Nash, 1/9/25
In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.
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CB Leading Economic Index: Small Rise in November

by Jennifer Nash, 12/19/24
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.
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Top 10 AP Charts of 2023

by Jennifer Nash, 12/29/23
As 2023 comes to an end, let’s revisit the top 10 most-read AP charts of the year.
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Holiday Greetings and Temporary Hiatus

by , 12/16/23
AP Charts and Analysis will be offline this week due to the holidays. We will resume publishing economic and market analysis and publish missed news on 12/26.
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Underlying Inflation Gauge Falls for 15th Straight Month

by Jennifer Nash, 10/12/23
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for September is 2.9%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.2%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.2%.
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Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview: September 2023

by Jennifer Nash, 9/28/23
Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The September average of the five districts is -6.5, down from the previous month.
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The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index

by Jennifer Nash, 9/28/23
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 third estimate) and initial jobless claims through 9/23.
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The "Real" Goods on the August Durable Goods Data

by Jennifer Nash, 9/27/23
The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for August. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.
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Breaking Down the Components of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index

by Jennifer Nash, 9/25/23
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August.
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A Long-Term Look: Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts

by Jennifer Nash, 9/19/23
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their August findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.
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Top 10 AP Charts of 2022

by Jill Mislinski, 12/23/22
Here's the top 10 most popular AP Charts of 2022.
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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

by Jill Mislinski, 9/30/22
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 145.6, up from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -10.3, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.92%, down slightly from last week.
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Gasoline Volume Sales Down 8.9% YoY

by Jill Mislinski, 1/21/22
The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.
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2020 Update: Median Home Price and Salary Required in 25 Major Cities

by Jill Mislinski, 10/29/21
The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is:
"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"
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Not Your Regularly Scheduled Programming

by Jill Mislinski, 10/24/21
Next week we are taking a hiatus from regularly scheduled updates and will be publishing a series of articles based on the Census Bureau's 2020 Income and Poverty Report. Stay Tuned!
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A Closer Look at Yesterday's ADP Employment Report

by Jill Mislinski, 10/7/21
In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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UPDATE: COVID-19, The Markets, and The Economy

by Jill Mislinski, 6/16/21
Let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21, 2020. All but two sectors, hotels and airlines, have recovered since then. Retail has bounced back the fastest, while hotels and airlines are still lagging. Individuals are returning to travel rapidly as more vaccines are administered.
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Join us tomorrow for the AP Thought Leader Summit - a FREE virtual event!
by Team, 10/5/20
Join us for a series of virtual sessions during the AP Thought Leader Summit 2020, October 6-7, 2020. This FREE event is for financial advisors to learn and earn CE credits for sessions from the industry's most influential thought leaders to help grow and manage their practice. Register here!
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Publishing Delay
by Jill Mislinski, 2/3/20
We are having some software issues and as a result, all economic news is delayed slightly. We will back-publish all missed updates once this is resolved. Thank you!
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Some Updates Delayed Indefinitely

by Jill Mislinski, 1/7/19
Due to the ongoing government shutdown, data held by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis will not be published.
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Millennials and the Labor Force: A Look at the Trends

by Jill Mislinski, 10/10/18
Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.
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Trends in the Teenage Workforce Update

by Jill Mislinski, 10/10/18
In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.
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Groundbreaking New Portfolio Retirement Income Guarantee
by Sponsored Content by RetireOne, 9/18/18
Cover retail mutual funds and ETFs in client IRAs, Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts to deliver reliable, sustainable income streams your clients can't outlive.
How is this even possible? Learn more
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Forecasting GDP: Gazing into the Crystal Ball

by Jill Mislinski, 6/27/18
The big economic number tomorrow will be the Q2 Third Estimate for GDP. The last two quarters are behind us with their real annualized rates of 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% in Q1. What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q2 Third Estimate? Let's take a look at the latest GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.
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Next Recession? Pundit Prognoses

by , 4/15/18
This is the second in a multi-part series where we examine pundits' opinions and predictions on the latest topics.
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Bitcoin Bets: Which Pundit Is Right?

by , 3/19/18
The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.
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A Note on 404 Errors
by Jill Mislinski, 3/13/18
Many of our readers have been experiencing 404 errors on dshort pages. These pages have not disappeared, they are merely being edited and as a result of our current process, it shows as a broken page. Please be sure to check back within a few days to see the newest update.
We are working on a new system that will prevent these errors.
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The Labor Market Conditions Index Discontinued

by Jill Mislinski, 8/8/17
The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinuedThe LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.
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Earn $100 by Participating in an APViewpoint Focus Group

by Jill Mislinski, 5/16/17
An ETF sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on the ETF marketplace. Click for more info.
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Visit Us At Morningstar

by Jill Mislinski, 4/26/17
If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.
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Update: A Closer Look at the Cost of Education

by Jill Mislinski, 3/21/17
Many reports on the cost of education and affordability over the last decade have focused on the rapid growth of educational debt. Here we examine student aid, costs of undergraduate education, and enrollment over time. We've used data from the College Board's annual Trends in Higher Education publications. We've updated this report with the latest data.
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The dshort Daily Digest is Back

by Jill Mislinski, 1/13/17
We are reintroducing the dshort Daily Digest! This daily email will include the most recent updates from dshort. Sign up now!
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Brace Yourself: Our Latest Look at Student Debt

by Jill Mislinski, 12/31/16
College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we've thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison.
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Housing Affordability in Today's Largest Cities

by Jill Mislinski, 12/21/16
We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Group’s wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median.
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Metropolitan Home Prices and the Zillow Home Value Index

by Jill Mislinski, 11/21/16
According to the Census Bureau, 84% of U.S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data.
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Snapshots of Market History: The Bear Bottoming Process

by Doug Short, 10/26/16
Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.
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Happiness Revisited: A Household Income of $75K?

by Doug Short, 10/21/16
Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.
One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.
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The Financial Plight of White Working Class Males

by Doug Short, 10/5/16
With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.
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Validating the S&P Composite Stock Price Index

by Doug Short, 9/1/16
Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.
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Medals, GDP, and the 2016 Rio Olympics

by Jill Mislinski, 8/15/16
With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance.
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Best Stock Market Indicator Update

by Jill Mislinski, 7/22/16
According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84% and all three secondary indicators are positive.
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49 Years of Income and Home Values

by Jill Mislinski, 5/25/16
Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.
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Equity Valuations, Recessions and Stock Market Declines

by Doug Short, 4/12/16
Note: In response to an email, I've updated the data in this article through the March month-end numbers and at the launch of the Q1 2016 earnings season.
Last year I had a fascinating conversation with Neile Wolfe, of Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC. Based on the underlying data in the adjacent chart, Neile made some cogent observations about the historical relationships between equity valuations, recessions and market prices:
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Industrial Production: Those Ugly Annual Benchmark Revisions and the Heightened Risk of Recession

by Doug Short, 4/4/16
The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.
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Median Household Income Growth: Deflating the American Dream

by Doug Short, 9/23/15
What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.
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Median Household Income Growth: Deflating the American Dream

by Doug Short, 9/16/14
What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: Income and Poverty in the United States: 2013. Last year the median (middle) household income was $51,939 -- a 1.8% year-over-year increase that shrinks to 0.3% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.
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P/E: So Many Choices: Part 2
by Ed Easterling, 4/27/11
This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.
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P/E: So Many Choices: Part 1
by Ed Easterling, 4/26/11
We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.
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