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Quarterly Commentary
by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research, 7/10/17

This article explores the value of understanding and assessing the environment over your investment horizon. Market weather may be hard to predict, but market climate can be credibly determined.

Quarterly Commentary
by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research, 4/6/17

Many people don't realize that recessions are relatively common and frequent. Before 1930, recessions occurred equally 1 to 4 times per decade. After 1930, recessions occur once per decade about a third of the time and twice per decade about two-thirds of the time. If history is a guide, we should expect 1 to 2 recessions each decade.

Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research, 10/7/16

The word secular originates from a series of Latin words that mean an extended period of time or an era. It is actually closer to you than you might realize.

Exit from Wonderland: Change Is Now on the Horizon
by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research, 8/13/15
Many investors and advisors are unsure about the current financial market environment. They have been wrestling with how to weight equities and whether to include alternative investments. Although equities have performed well in recent years, many alternatives have lagged expectations. This should not be surprising: the financial world is operating just as the Fed has intended.

Nightmare on Wall Street: This Secular Bear Has Only Just Begun
by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research, 7/2/12
Secular bull markets are great parties. Investors arrive from secular bears really wanting to take the edge off. As the bull proceeds, above-average returns become intoxicating. By the time it is over, the past decade or two has delivered bountiful returns. In contrast, secular bears seem like hangovers. They are awakenings that strip away the intoxication, leaving a sobering need for an understanding of what has happened.

Converging On The Horizon
by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 8/3/11
By the end of this year, the earnings cycle is likely to be well above its typical thresholds of duration and magnitude. Although earnings could again rise in 2012, the magnitude of excess margins portends a fairly significant decline when the earnings cycle reverts. In addition, the profile of cyclical cycles in the stock market may have also run its course. The market may sustain or extend its gains for 2011 by year-end, but another up-year in 2012 would make history. Not only is duration stretched, but also the magnitude of cumulative gains has now matched the historical average.

Beyond The Horizon: REDUX 2011
by Ed Easterling of Doug Short, 5/18/11
Rather than rehash old ground, this article will provide a speed-round of charts and limited commentary to explain the current conditions and the expectation for an earnings decline within the next few years. Once again, since the fundamental principles of the business cycle cause history to repeat itself, a decline in EPS should not be beyond your horizon!

What 'Secular Cycle' Means
by Ed Easterling of Doug Short, 5/17/11
There is a skeptical gremlin perched on the left shoulder for many investors. He often sneers at notions of "cycles" and other presumably predictable periods. When the word "secular" accompanies the word "cycle," that gremlin becomes even more scornful. Why do we use the term "secular cycle" with the stock market and what does it mean? Figure 1 presents a view of the stock market over the past century. You will note periods of above-average returns (i.e., the green bar periods) and periods of below-average returns (i.e., the red bar periods).

P/E: Future on the Horizon
by Ed Easterling, 5/3/11

Most people expect P/E to measure current valuation and to show historical patterns. But more features are available from some versions of P/E. The methodology behind the Crestmont P/E enables investors to anticipate the future. It may not precisely predict the market ten years away, but it frames within a relatively tight range the likely outcome. One component from determining the Crestmont P/E is a means to assess the future trend line for EPS using estimates of future economic growth (GDP).

P/E: So Many Choices: Part 2
by Ed Easterling, 4/27/11

This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

P/E: So Many Choices: Part 1
by Ed Easterling, 4/26/11

We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

Consensus: Groundhog Decade for Stocks
by Ed Easterling, 3/22/11
Just as Bill Murray woke up to the same thing day after day in the movie 'Groundhog Day,' it's likely that your outlook foretells a groundhog decade for the stock market that will repeat its near-breakeven returns from the past decade.
12 results found.