As 2023 comes to an end, let’s revisit the top 10 most-read charts of the year. From wage trends to market valuations and economic indicators, these charts provided insight into the economic landscape that shaped the past year.
-
Middle Class Hourly Wages
Utilizing the latest CPI and employment data, this chart calculates inflation-adjusted hourly, weekly, and annual earnings. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $49,517, down 7.67% from over 50 years ago.
-
Margin Debt
A depiction of the money investors borrowed from brokers via margin accounts. The latest debt level is at $660.89 billion.
-
Buffett Valuation Indicator
A long-term valuation metric comparing the total market value of publicly traded stocks to the country’s GDP. Using the Q3 GDP 2nd estimate and November S&P 500 close data, latest reading is 180.5%, signaling an overvalued market.
-
Market Valuation Overview
A comparative analysis of four valuation indicators (Regression to Trend, Crestmont P/E, Q-Ratio, and P/E 10). Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data from November, the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 71% to 129%, depending on the indicator.
-
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)
A composite index predicting business cycle turning points and anticipating economic trends. The latest data showed the LEI falling for a 20th consecutive month to 103.0, its lowest reading since May 2020.
-
S&P 500 Snapshot
A weekly update that highlights the S&P 500’s performance and broader index trends. At the time of writing, the index is up over 25% year to date and sits just below its all-time record high from January 2022.
-
P/E 10 Market Valuation Update
A long-term valuation indicator calculated by dividing the current S&P 500 price by the average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. As of November, the P/E 10 ratio is at 29.9, signaling an overvalued market.
-
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index
A composite index anticipating the likelihood of recession based on six broad categories. As of December 8th, the index recorded its 16th consecutive positive reading, with 5 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
-
U.S. Household Incomes: A 50+ Year Perspective
A quintile breakdown of household income trends over the last 50 years with nominal and inflation adjustments. In 2022 the median average household income fell by 2.3% to $74,580.
-
Two Measures of Inflation
A comparison between the two main measures of inflation: PCE and CPI. As of November, core PCE was at 3.2% while core CPI was higher, at 4.0%.
ETFs associated with the S&P 500 include: iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), and SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPLG).
