The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believes that sustainable investing will be a dominant investment trend in the coming years, with structural tailwinds that could help improve financial returns.
Funds will begin paying out their 2023 distributions this month which could lead to a tax bill for your clients. While capital gains distributions will likely be lower this year than in recent years, interest income is expected to be higher.
It’s possible that a 2024 recession could be avoided, but we see recessions risks as remaining elevated in most developed markets. We believe there is limited upside for equities amid expensive valuations and recession concerns. Government bond valuations, however, look attractive in the U.S., UK, Canada, Germany and Australia.
History shows that returns are greatest when capital is scarce. But investors need to also realize that risks escalate when there is a glut of capital.
Although some volatility may continue, we believe interest rates have peaked. We expect lower Treasury yields and positive returns for investors in 2024.
Our portfolio managers field some tough questions on Matthews Asia Dividend’s performance, its positioning and what they believe are its unique strengths for investors.
Insurance is making national headlines in 2023 as major providers retreat from writing new policies in large parts of the country and renewal premium prices skyrocket.
The US Supreme Court heard arguments on Tuesday over a dispute over a $14,279 tax bill — and the slightly more consequential question of what counts as income under the federal tax code, a definition the Biden administration would like to expand.
There are plenty of high-performing private investment vehicles in India, but it’s the few that are being set up for dubious purposes that may bring harsher regulatory scrutiny to the country’s most rapidly expanding asset class.
Apollo Global Management Inc.’s Marc Rowan said it’s getting harder for active managers to beat indexes in public markets and that it is easier for investors to find alpha in private markets.
Taiwan’s economic and financial decoupling from China has deepened with the near-collapse of what was once the world’s largest Chinese bond exchange-traded fund market.
The global economy is still overwhelmingly powered by fossil fuels, with more than 80% of primary energy sourced from coal, oil, and gas, as of 2021.
Among Asia’s major economies, China has long been the benchmark against which other countries’ growth is measured. India, currently the continent’s third-largest economy behind China and Japan, appears poised to take the baton of economic growth leadership.
In mid-September, Rockefeller Asset Management, the asset management arm of Rockefeller Capital Management, and KraneShares, a leading global ETF provider specializing in China, climate, and uncorrelated assets, launched the KraneShares Rockefeller Ocean Engagement ETF (ticker: KSEA). The fund invests in public companies with significant impact on oceans and ocean resources, reflecting the meaningful investment opportunities within the blue economy.
KSEA aims to generate competitive returns and improve ocean health through shareholder engagement activity focused on pollution prevention, carbon transition, and ocean conservation. Holdings include companies from diverse sectors such as aquaculture, commercial fishing, waste management, renewable energy, and logistics, among others.
My guest, Casey Clark, will discuss this new ETF.
Our outlook for 2024 is for a gradual U-shaped recovery composed of seemingly chaotic movements in economic data with turning points in policy rates and earnings growth.
India is once again leading flows into US exchange-traded funds tracking emerging markets, boosting one of the most popular trades in 2023 as declining US yields and a weakening dollar turn investors toward assets in the developing world.
Our portfolio managers field some tough questions on Pacific Tiger’s performance, its positioning and what they believe are its unique strengths for investors.
For much of 2023, the market has tried to anticipate a Fed pivot – only to be wrongfooted several times. However, sharply higher interest rates, cooling inflation pressures and moderating wages have the market convinced that the Fed’s current tightening cycle is over.
Five of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through December 4, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 27.35%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 19.50% while India's BSE SENSEX moved into third with a YTD gain of 12.35%.
The AQR Style Premia Alternative Fund (QSPIX) was introduced a decade ago to provide pure exposure to four market factors that had historically delivered excess returns. Let’s look at how it performed over that period.
In November, Treasury rates dropped, and risk assets rallied. The market expects continuing drops in inflation and slower, but not disastrous, growth. The data support the market's sanguine assessment.
Across Wall Street, analysts and investors had cheered 2023 as the year of emerging markets, only to be burned by a relentless climb in US Treasury yields. Now, as the Federal Reserve looks set to end its most aggressive monetary tightening campaign in a generation, they’re at it again.
Inflation is a touchy subject, and given there are many ways to analyze it, investors should take note of the nuances that exist within the data.
The life story of Charlie Munger, who passed away on Tuesday at age 99, serves as a shining example of the enduring American Dream, especially now at a time when many people doubt whether the promise of a better life is still intact.
Our 2023 Manager ESG Survey shows that transparency around DEI data is increasing among investment managers. The results reveal that equity product managers in particular are more inclined to share DEI data compared to managers in other asset classes.
In a year in which little has gone right in the US bond market, November turned out to be a month for the record books.
Economic conditions now are quite different from the 1970’s and still disinflationary.
The main point under contention this year will be the phase-out of fossil fuels and the limited progress achieved so far. As more businesses make net-zero commitments, there is mounting pressure for greater government support through policies and incentives.
Real estate headlines seem to only focus on bad news right now, from remote work’s impact on offices to struggles for city center retail.
There is broad agreement that economic damages will increase with warming, but there is substantial disagreement on the magnitude of these damages.
Despite an increasingly challenging economic and geopolitical environment, the global economy performed better than expected over the past year. But although analysts’ projections for 2023 were too pessimistic, it appears that consensus forecasts for the coming year may have have swung too far in the opposite direction.
Commodities entered 2023 behind a strong performance in 2022. For investors revisiting their portfolios ahead of 2024, it may be worth assessing the commodities outlook. From energy to precious metals, commodities can add meaningful diversification to a portfolio.
Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.
What were the big ETF trends of 2023? David Mann, Global Head of ETF Product & Capital Markets, reviews some of his predictions for this year—and how they panned out.
VettaFi’s Tom Lydon offers perspective on using alternative ETFs in a portfolio. Madison’s Patrick Ryan discusses the firm’s recent ETF entrance and explains the rise of active ETFs. Cerulli’s Daniil Shapiro highlights several of the industry’s biggest trends.
BMW AG Chief Executive Officer Oliver Zipse was incredulous when asked this month whether the German premium carmaker would respond to a brutal price war in electric vehicles by cutting production.
At the time of the first major climate change conference, in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, China was one of the least developed nations. Its per capita income was below Haiti, Niger and Pakistan.
When the crypto bubble was on the rise, it prompted governments to step up development of their own form of electronic cash, known as central bank digital currencies. Now that enthusiasm for crypto has waned, will CBDCs fade away, too?
Researchers working inside a unit of BlackRock Inc. estimate that a reform of public financial institutions could free up as much as $4 trillion in additional investment to help emerging markets tackle the fallout of climate change.
A robust growth backdrop, a key input for cross-asset positioning, benefited from pent-up demand and an accommodative fiscal policy stance.
When Argentina entered the 20th Century, its prospects looked bright. On a per person basis, its economy was on par with Canada and Sweden and about two-thirds of the United States.
The growth of the federal deficit in the post-COVID era, coupled with the political unwillingness to increase taxes, foretells higher-than-historical inflation rates, according to new research.
It’s finally time to move on from a $2.2 trillion problem by burying Bankhaus Herstatt — a half-century after its collapse.
Is a hedge fund anything without its founder? Another batch of well-known hedge fund managers have sold out or moved to liquidate portfolios this month. Their legacies as entrepreneurs underscore the challenges of building a firm that outgrows the key risk-taker.
Food prices illustrate several challenges of containing inflation.
Thanksgiving brings to mind not only turkeys, family, and friends, but also should help us recall the remarkable ideas and philosophies that helped shape, and indeed were, the foundation for the United States of America as a Republic.
This is an exciting time for artificial intelligence and robotics stocks, with many companies reporting and some major news announcements. This week, for the Disruptive Theme of the Week, I reached out to VettaFi’s Senior Research Analyst, Zeno Mercer, for an update on the latest developments in AI and robotics.
Artificial intelligence is likely to transform our world in many ways, but one that hasn’t received much attention is the technology’s looming impact on real estate. As AI becomes an essential component of both business and daily life, the value of places where those who work on AI want to live will rise, provided these locales have reasonable infrastructure.
Growth prospects for renewable energy will be a central plank of discussions when world leaders start gathering next week in Dubai for COP28.
CIO designate Sean Taylor gives his take on what Asia has to offer global and emerging markets investors, from growth, to diversification, to innovation.
Nvidia Corp. investors gave a cool reaction to its latest quarterly report, which blew past average analysts’ estimates but failed to satisfy the loftier expectations of shareholders who have bet heavily on an artificial intelligence boom.
October news on CPI inflation was all the doctor recommended and has markets spinning and repricing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential path forward.
Reasons prompting concern around investing in China may be improving, but volatility is likely to remain characteristic of Chinese stocks in 2024.
VettaFi’s Stacey Morris recaps the year in energy ETFs and offers an outlook for 2024. Honeytree’s Liz Simmie spotlights their recently launched U.S. Equity ETF (BEEZ) which focuses on “responsible growth”. Brown Brothers Harriman’s John Hooson discusses the potential pros and cons of ETFs moving to T+1 settlement next year.
The Age of AI (And Our Human Future), by Henry Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, and Daniel Huttenlocher, is keenly relevant.
The primary holder of U.S. Federal debt is, surprising to many, the U.S. federal government itself, accounting for approximately 40% of the total outstanding debt.
David Dali, Head of Portfolio Strategy, provides his 12-month outlook for global equity markets.
WeLab Ltd., backed by investors including billionaire Li Ka-shing and Astra International, a unit of Jardine Matheson, is launching a digital bank in Indonesia to tap the young and fast-growing economy.
The shocking decision by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. to cancel the spinoff of its cloud division is offering a fresh reason for investors to sell China tech stocks in an earnings season yielding mixed results.
Dina Ting, Franklin Templeton’s Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, sheds light on the benefits of single-country ETF allocations against what has been a rocky macro backdrop and discusses ways to re-evaluate potential opportunities in terms of tax-loss decision-making.
Picking the “right” stock is akin to betting on a game; not only must one pick the right team (beta), but also by how much (alpha).
When it comes to artificial intelligence, one of the most commonly debated issues in the technology community is safety — so much so that it has helped lead to the ouster of OpenAI's co-founder Sam Altman, according to Bloomberg News.
U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, and bond markets rallied, but the Fed is likely to remain in a long pause.
Using LOGICLY data, we look at two of Direxion’s leveraged gold miners ETFs and their key features.
The bill will keep the federal government running into early 2024 but likely increases the risk of a shutdown in February.
The savage sell-off that hit Treasuries in prior months was driven by concerns a buyers’ strike had hit the $26 trillion bond market. It’s now confirmed: at least one set of investors headed for the exits back in September.
I find for many the same is true with ETFs and capital gains. However, the ETF pie continues to expand with newer investors each year. The persistent lack of a capital tax gain burden simply for holding onto an investment is worthy of celebration.
Fossil fuels, particularly oil, are difficult to replace due to their availability, affordability and energy density. Low-carbon alternatives, like solar energy, need large amounts of space to produce comparable amounts of energy to oil.
The Treasury Department’s top domestic finance official said the US government debt market has functioned well during a year of outsized interest-rate volatility, a regional banking crisis and the recent hack of the world’s largest bank.
Investors should offload risky assets after recent gains as technical and macroeconomic headwinds are building, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
The run-off election looks tight in Argentina, where I’m attending a Young Presidents’ Organization (YPO) event in Buenos Aires.
Investors were given plenty of opportunities to fret about the outlook for technology giants this earnings season. Instead, they doubled down on a strategy that has worked all year: piling into the biggest stocks
We believe that an OCIO provider should have the capability to handle any type of investment assignment. However, most OCIO providers do not have the ability to do this.
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index declined again in November and the future outlook inched down. The composite index came in at -2, up from -8 in October, while the future outlook dropped to -1.
Just a week after Brazil’s Nu Holdings Ltd announced a yield of 15% on its high-yield savings accounts in Mexico, Argentina’s Ualá is raising its own by three percentage points to 15%.
The recent pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could finally signal an end to monetary policy tightening. But fixed income investors can keep on reaching for high yield opportunities with a pair of active ETFs from American Century.
In our 2024 outlook, bonds emerge as a standout asset class, offering strong prospects, resilience, diversification, and attractive valuations compared with equities.
For Meta Platforms Inc. bulls, the biggest one-day stock wipeout in history is a fading sight in the rear-view mirror.
Third-quarter earnings announcements have almost come and gone, with yesterday being the last big burst of companies. Some key firms have yet to announce, like Nvidia and Walmart, but everything I’m seeing says it surpassed expectations.
Like some advances earlier this year, the market's current surge hasn't been defined by strong breadth underneath the surface—which will be key for a sustained, durable advance.
We speak with ClearBridge Investments’ Jeff Schulze about a topic on many investors’ minds: the 10-year US Treasury yield and the path of monetary policy. He also shares his views on the latest US retail sales data and whether consumer resilience will last into 2024.
Senior Investment Analyst Ashley Fritz addresses three major misconceptions around ESG investing in the EM corporate space.
The price of gold just had its best October in nearly half a century, defying tough resistance from surging Treasury yields and a strong U.S. dollar. The yellow metal rallied an incredible 7.3% last month to close at $1,983 an ounce, its strongest October since 1978, when it jumped 11.7%.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she disagrees with Moody’s Investors Service’s shift to a negative outlook on the country’s Aaa credit rating, expressing confidence in the economy and in Treasuries as a safe asset.
A China ‘Recovery’: How important is the loss of confidence within China itself?
Higher interest rates and inflation are likely to usher in a decade of policy restraint, limited liquidity and macro volatility, pressuring equities and motivating investors to reconsider tactical asset allocation and embrace real assets.
Morgan Stanley’s strategists see US stocks and bonds outperforming their emerging markets peers next year, according to a note to clients.
Emerging-market borrowers are piling back into global bond markets, selling about $20 billion in dollar notes in just a few days, all too aware that the window of opportunity may snap shut as suddenly as it opened.
Wall Street’s so-called Magnificent Seven has been living up to its name again, but none more so than Microsoft Corp.
The third quarter was a more favorable environment for active managers in U.S. Large and Small Caps, Japan, Australia, and Canada equities, while being more challenging for Global, Global ex-U.S., Emerging Markets, Europe, UK and Long/Short managers.
Emerging Markets
Growing Green: Cultivating a Sustainable Future Through an Ecosystem Service Valuation
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believes that sustainable investing will be a dominant investment trend in the coming years, with structural tailwinds that could help improve financial returns.
Capital Gain Distributions Are Still Not Your Friend. But Now, Interest Is Also Your Frenemy!
Funds will begin paying out their 2023 distributions this month which could lead to a tax bill for your clients. While capital gains distributions will likely be lower this year than in recent years, interest income is expected to be higher.
2024 Global Market Outlook: The Twilight Zone
It’s possible that a 2024 recession could be avoided, but we see recessions risks as remaining elevated in most developed markets. We believe there is limited upside for equities amid expensive valuations and recession concerns. Government bond valuations, however, look attractive in the U.S., UK, Canada, Germany and Australia.
Global Valuations: A Rubber Band Poised to Snap
History shows that returns are greatest when capital is scarce. But investors need to also realize that risks escalate when there is a glut of capital.
Fixed Income Outlook: The Rocky Road Bond Market
Although some volatility may continue, we believe interest rates have peaked. We expect lower Treasury yields and positive returns for investors in 2024.
Staying the Course: Matthews Asia Dividend
Our portfolio managers field some tough questions on Matthews Asia Dividend’s performance, its positioning and what they believe are its unique strengths for investors.
Insurance → Inflation + Issuance
Insurance is making national headlines in 2023 as major providers retreat from writing new policies in large parts of the country and renewal premium prices skyrocket.
Constitutional or Not, Wealth Taxes Are Bad Economics
The US Supreme Court heard arguments on Tuesday over a dispute over a $14,279 tax bill — and the slightly more consequential question of what counts as income under the federal tax code, a definition the Biden administration would like to expand.
The Murky Uses of India’s Private Credit Funds
There are plenty of high-performing private investment vehicles in India, but it’s the few that are being set up for dubious purposes that may bring harsher regulatory scrutiny to the country’s most rapidly expanding asset class.
Apollo CEO Says It’s Getting Harder to Beat Public Markets
Apollo Global Management Inc.’s Marc Rowan said it’s getting harder for active managers to beat indexes in public markets and that it is easier for investors to find alpha in private markets.
Taiwan’s Big China ETF Bust Shows Extent of Financial Decoupling
Taiwan’s economic and financial decoupling from China has deepened with the near-collapse of what was once the world’s largest Chinese bond exchange-traded fund market.
The Energy Transition and What It Means for Institutional Investors
The global economy is still overwhelmingly powered by fossil fuels, with more than 80% of primary energy sourced from coal, oil, and gas, as of 2021.
India to Take Reins From China as Asia Growth Leader
Among Asia’s major economies, China has long been the benchmark against which other countries’ growth is measured. India, currently the continent’s third-largest economy behind China and Japan, appears poised to take the baton of economic growth leadership.
The New “Clean Ocean” ETF
In mid-September, Rockefeller Asset Management, the asset management arm of Rockefeller Capital Management, and KraneShares, a leading global ETF provider specializing in China, climate, and uncorrelated assets, launched the KraneShares Rockefeller Ocean Engagement ETF (ticker: KSEA). The fund invests in public companies with significant impact on oceans and ocean resources, reflecting the meaningful investment opportunities within the blue economy.
KSEA aims to generate competitive returns and improve ocean health through shareholder engagement activity focused on pollution prevention, carbon transition, and ocean conservation. Holdings include companies from diverse sectors such as aquaculture, commercial fishing, waste management, renewable energy, and logistics, among others.
My guest, Casey Clark, will discuss this new ETF.
2024 Global Outlook: The Big Picture
Our outlook for 2024 is for a gradual U-shaped recovery composed of seemingly chaotic movements in economic data with turning points in policy rates and earnings growth.
India Boosts Emerging Market ETFs as US Yields Dip, Dollar Falls
India is once again leading flows into US exchange-traded funds tracking emerging markets, boosting one of the most popular trades in 2023 as declining US yields and a weakening dollar turn investors toward assets in the developing world.
Staying the Course: Matthews Pacific Tiger
Our portfolio managers field some tough questions on Pacific Tiger’s performance, its positioning and what they believe are its unique strengths for investors.
Recapping November’s Key Market Events
For much of 2023, the market has tried to anticipate a Fed pivot – only to be wrongfooted several times. However, sharply higher interest rates, cooling inflation pressures and moderating wages have the market convinced that the Fed’s current tightening cycle is over.
World Markets Watchlist: December 4, 2023
Five of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through December 4, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 27.35%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 19.50% while India's BSE SENSEX moved into third with a YTD gain of 12.35%.
Examining the Performance of AQR’s Style Premia Alternative Fund
The AQR Style Premia Alternative Fund (QSPIX) was introduced a decade ago to provide pure exposure to four market factors that had historically delivered excess returns. Let’s look at how it performed over that period.
The Impending Economic Slowdown Should Be Good for Markets
In November, Treasury rates dropped, and risk assets rallied. The market expects continuing drops in inflation and slower, but not disastrous, growth. The data support the market's sanguine assessment.
Yield Hunt Is Finally Back On for Buyers in Emerging Markets
Across Wall Street, analysts and investors had cheered 2023 as the year of emerging markets, only to be burned by a relentless climb in US Treasury yields. Now, as the Federal Reserve looks set to end its most aggressive monetary tightening campaign in a generation, they’re at it again.
Lose Yourself in the Inflation Data
Inflation is a touchy subject, and given there are many ways to analyze it, investors should take note of the nuances that exist within the data.
A Tribute to Charlie Munger and the Promise of the American Dream
The life story of Charlie Munger, who passed away on Tuesday at age 99, serves as a shining example of the enduring American Dream, especially now at a time when many people doubt whether the promise of a better life is still intact.
Diversity in Investment Management: What Are the Latest Trends and Insights?
Our 2023 Manager ESG Survey shows that transparency around DEI data is increasing among investment managers. The results reveal that equity product managers in particular are more inclined to share DEI data compared to managers in other asset classes.
Biggest Blowout in Bonds Since the 1980s Sparks Everything Rally
In a year in which little has gone right in the US bond market, November turned out to be a month for the record books.
It Won’t Be a Repeat of the 1970’s
Economic conditions now are quite different from the 1970’s and still disinflationary.
COP28 – A Look Ahead
The main point under contention this year will be the phase-out of fossil fuels and the limited progress achieved so far. As more businesses make net-zero commitments, there is mounting pressure for greater government support through policies and incentives.
Real Estate: The Underrated Alts Segment
Real estate headlines seem to only focus on bad news right now, from remote work’s impact on offices to struggles for city center retail.
The Energy Transition, Part 3: Implications for Economies and Markets
There is broad agreement that economic damages will increase with warming, but there is substantial disagreement on the magnitude of these damages.
Beware the New Consensus on the Global Economy
Despite an increasingly challenging economic and geopolitical environment, the global economy performed better than expected over the past year. But although analysts’ projections for 2023 were too pessimistic, it appears that consensus forecasts for the coming year may have have swung too far in the opposite direction.
The Commodities Outlook Entering 2024
Commodities entered 2023 behind a strong performance in 2022. For investors revisiting their portfolios ahead of 2024, it may be worth assessing the commodities outlook. From energy to precious metals, commodities can add meaningful diversification to a portfolio.
U.S. Outlook: One Thing Leads to Another
Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.
Year in Review: 2023 ETF Predictions Report Card
What were the big ETF trends of 2023? David Mann, Global Head of ETF Product & Capital Markets, reviews some of his predictions for this year—and how they panned out.
Alternative ETFs, Madison’s ETF Entrance, & the Industry’s Biggest Trends
VettaFi’s Tom Lydon offers perspective on using alternative ETFs in a portfolio. Madison’s Patrick Ryan discusses the firm’s recent ETF entrance and explains the rise of active ETFs. Cerulli’s Daniil Shapiro highlights several of the industry’s biggest trends.
Electric Vehicle Subsidy Junkies Can’t Get Higher
BMW AG Chief Executive Officer Oliver Zipse was incredulous when asked this month whether the German premium carmaker would respond to a brutal price war in electric vehicles by cutting production.
China Is a Rich Country. It Can No Longer Cry Poor on Climate
At the time of the first major climate change conference, in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, China was one of the least developed nations. Its per capita income was below Haiti, Niger and Pakistan.
Virtual Cash Will Survive the Crypto Winter
When the crypto bubble was on the rise, it prompted governments to step up development of their own form of electronic cash, known as central bank digital currencies. Now that enthusiasm for crypto has waned, will CBDCs fade away, too?
BlackRock Unveils Path to Unleashing $4 Trillion Investment Boom
Researchers working inside a unit of BlackRock Inc. estimate that a reform of public financial institutions could free up as much as $4 trillion in additional investment to help emerging markets tackle the fallout of climate change.
Multi-Asset Investing: Tracing the Growth Impact of US Fiscal Policies
A robust growth backdrop, a key input for cross-asset positioning, benefited from pent-up demand and an accommodative fiscal policy stance.
Argentina: Is the Pendulum Swinging, Again?
When Argentina entered the 20th Century, its prospects looked bright. On a per person basis, its economy was on par with Canada and Sweden and about two-thirds of the United States.
Fiscal Deficits Drive Higher Inflation
The growth of the federal deficit in the post-COVID era, coupled with the political unwillingness to increase taxes, foretells higher-than-historical inflation rates, according to new research.
How to Fix a $2.2 Trillion FX Risk After 50 Years of Trying
It’s finally time to move on from a $2.2 trillion problem by burying Bankhaus Herstatt — a half-century after its collapse.
Is a Hedge Fund More Than Its Founder?
Is a hedge fund anything without its founder? Another batch of well-known hedge fund managers have sold out or moved to liquidate portfolios this month. Their legacies as entrepreneurs underscore the challenges of building a firm that outgrows the key risk-taker.
Food, For Thought
Food prices illustrate several challenges of containing inflation.
The Survival of the Republic
Thanksgiving brings to mind not only turkeys, family, and friends, but also should help us recall the remarkable ideas and philosophies that helped shape, and indeed were, the foundation for the United States of America as a Republic.
Disruptive Tech Theme of the Week: Zeno Mercer Talks AI and Robotics
This is an exciting time for artificial intelligence and robotics stocks, with many companies reporting and some major news announcements. This week, for the Disruptive Theme of the Week, I reached out to VettaFi’s Senior Research Analyst, Zeno Mercer, for an update on the latest developments in AI and robotics.
Struggling Cities Face More Pain From AI Boom
Artificial intelligence is likely to transform our world in many ways, but one that hasn’t received much attention is the technology’s looming impact on real estate. As AI becomes an essential component of both business and daily life, the value of places where those who work on AI want to live will rise, provided these locales have reasonable infrastructure.
Climate Funds Look to Regain Footing After Three Down Years
Growth prospects for renewable energy will be a central plank of discussions when world leaders start gathering next week in Dubai for COP28.
Why Asia Matters
CIO designate Sean Taylor gives his take on what Asia has to offer global and emerging markets investors, from growth, to diversification, to innovation.
Nvidia Fails to Satisfy Lofty Investor Expectations for AI Boom
Nvidia Corp. investors gave a cool reaction to its latest quarterly report, which blew past average analysts’ estimates but failed to satisfy the loftier expectations of shareholders who have bet heavily on an artificial intelligence boom.
October CPI Inflation: Just What the Dr. Recommended
October news on CPI inflation was all the doctor recommended and has markets spinning and repricing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential path forward.
Is China Investable?
Reasons prompting concern around investing in China may be improving, but volatility is likely to remain characteristic of Chinese stocks in 2024.
Energy Sector Outlook, BEEZ ETF, & T+1 Settlement
VettaFi’s Stacey Morris recaps the year in energy ETFs and offers an outlook for 2024. Honeytree’s Liz Simmie spotlights their recently launched U.S. Equity ETF (BEEZ) which focuses on “responsible growth”. Brown Brothers Harriman’s John Hooson discusses the potential pros and cons of ETFs moving to T+1 settlement next year.
Henry Kissinger on the Promise and Threats of AI
The Age of AI (And Our Human Future), by Henry Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, and Daniel Huttenlocher, is keenly relevant.
Who Owns the Federal Debt?
The primary holder of U.S. Federal debt is, surprising to many, the U.S. federal government itself, accounting for approximately 40% of the total outstanding debt.
Market Viewpoint
David Dali, Head of Portfolio Strategy, provides his 12-month outlook for global equity markets.
Li Ka-shing-Backed WeLab Launches Digital Bank in Indonesia
WeLab Ltd., backed by investors including billionaire Li Ka-shing and Astra International, a unit of Jardine Matheson, is launching a digital bank in Indonesia to tap the young and fast-growing economy.
Alibaba Shock Move Casts Fresh Pall Over China Tech
The shocking decision by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. to cancel the spinoff of its cloud division is offering a fresh reason for investors to sell China tech stocks in an earnings season yielding mixed results.
Using Single-Country ETFS as Part of a Tax-Loss Harvesting Strategy
Dina Ting, Franklin Templeton’s Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, sheds light on the benefits of single-country ETF allocations against what has been a rocky macro backdrop and discusses ways to re-evaluate potential opportunities in terms of tax-loss decision-making.
The New “New” Alpha
Picking the “right” stock is akin to betting on a game; not only must one pick the right team (beta), but also by how much (alpha).
A Guide to the AI Safety Debate After Sam Altman’s Ouster
When it comes to artificial intelligence, one of the most commonly debated issues in the technology community is safety — so much so that it has helped lead to the ouster of OpenAI's co-founder Sam Altman, according to Bloomberg News.
October CPI: Small Surprise, Large Market Reaction
U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, and bond markets rallied, but the Fed is likely to remain in a long pause.
Gaining Global Exposure to Gold Miners
Using LOGICLY data, we look at two of Direxion’s leveraged gold miners ETFs and their key features.
Congress Averts Government Shutdown … Again
The bill will keep the federal government running into early 2024 but likely increases the risk of a shutdown in February.
Treasuries Suffer First Outflows Since 2021 in September Rout
The savage sell-off that hit Treasuries in prior months was driven by concerns a buyers’ strike had hit the $26 trillion bond market. It’s now confirmed: at least one set of investors headed for the exits back in September.
Loyal ETF Investors Rewarded With No Tax Bills
I find for many the same is true with ETFs and capital gains. However, the ETF pie continues to expand with newer investors each year. The persistent lack of a capital tax gain burden simply for holding onto an investment is worthy of celebration.
The Energy Transition, Part 2: The Transition Challenge
Fossil fuels, particularly oil, are difficult to replace due to their availability, affordability and energy density. Low-carbon alternatives, like solar energy, need large amounts of space to produce comparable amounts of energy to oil.
US Treasury Market Is Resilient Despite ‘Shocks,’ Official Says
The Treasury Department’s top domestic finance official said the US government debt market has functioned well during a year of outsized interest-rate volatility, a regional banking crisis and the recent hack of the world’s largest bank.
BofA’s Hartnett Says Sell ‘Epic’ Stock Rally as Risks Linger
Investors should offload risky assets after recent gains as technical and macroeconomic headwinds are building, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
A Time of Gratitude and Opportunity
The run-off election looks tight in Argentina, where I’m attending a Young Presidents’ Organization (YPO) event in Buenos Aires.
Big Tech’s $2 Trillion Rally Saves Nasdaq From Correction
Investors were given plenty of opportunities to fret about the outlook for technology giants this earnings season. Instead, they doubled down on a strategy that has worked all year: piling into the biggest stocks
The Value of Working With an OCIO Provider That Can Do It All
We believe that an OCIO provider should have the capability to handle any type of investment assignment. However, most OCIO providers do not have the ability to do this.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Declined Again in November
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index declined again in November and the future outlook inched down. The composite index came in at -2, up from -8 in October, while the future outlook dropped to -1.
Fintechs Push Mexico Interest Rates to 15% in Battle for Savers
Just a week after Brazil’s Nu Holdings Ltd announced a yield of 15% on its high-yield savings accounts in Mexico, Argentina’s Ualá is raising its own by three percentage points to 15%.
Reach for High Yield With These 2 Active ETFs
The recent pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could finally signal an end to monetary policy tightening. But fixed income investors can keep on reaching for high yield opportunities with a pair of active ETFs from American Century.
Prime Time for Bonds
In our 2024 outlook, bonds emerge as a standout asset class, offering strong prospects, resilience, diversification, and attractive valuations compared with equities.
Meta Has More Wall Street Fans Than Ever as Rally Nears 300%
For Meta Platforms Inc. bulls, the biggest one-day stock wipeout in history is a fading sight in the rear-view mirror.
VettaFi Voices On: Third-Quarter Earnings Season
Third-quarter earnings announcements have almost come and gone, with yesterday being the last big burst of companies. Some key firms have yet to announce, like Nvidia and Walmart, but everything I’m seeing says it surpassed expectations.
Roller Coaster: Markets Take a Ride
Like some advances earlier this year, the market's current surge hasn't been defined by strong breadth underneath the surface—which will be key for a sustained, durable advance.
How Long Will Consumers Keep Spending?
We speak with ClearBridge Investments’ Jeff Schulze about a topic on many investors’ minds: the 10-year US Treasury yield and the path of monetary policy. He also shares his views on the latest US retail sales data and whether consumer resilience will last into 2024.
EM Corporates & ESG: A Surprisingly Strong Opportunity Set
Senior Investment Analyst Ashley Fritz addresses three major misconceptions around ESG investing in the EM corporate space.
Japan’s New Gold Era: The Yen’s Decline Sparks Unprecedented Demand For Safe Havens
The price of gold just had its best October in nearly half a century, defying tough resistance from surging Treasury yields and a strong U.S. dollar. The yellow metal rallied an incredible 7.3% last month to close at $1,983 an ounce, its strongest October since 1978, when it jumped 11.7%.
Yellen Says She Disagrees With Moody’s Negative Outlook on US
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she disagrees with Moody’s Investors Service’s shift to a negative outlook on the country’s Aaa credit rating, expressing confidence in the economy and in Treasuries as a safe asset.
Confidence
A China ‘Recovery’: How important is the loss of confidence within China itself?
From Abundance to Austerity: Why the Next Decade Won’t Be Like the Last
Higher interest rates and inflation are likely to usher in a decade of policy restraint, limited liquidity and macro volatility, pressuring equities and motivating investors to reconsider tactical asset allocation and embrace real assets.
Morgan Stanley Sees Bullish Opportunities for US Assets in 2024
Morgan Stanley’s strategists see US stocks and bonds outperforming their emerging markets peers next year, according to a note to clients.
A $20 Billion Week Marks Market Reopening for EM Bond Sales
Emerging-market borrowers are piling back into global bond markets, selling about $20 billion in dollar notes in just a few days, all too aware that the window of opportunity may snap shut as suddenly as it opened.
Microsoft Record Leads $1.5 Trillion Nasdaq Surge
Wall Street’s so-called Magnificent Seven has been living up to its name again, but none more so than Microsoft Corp.
Q3 Active Management Review: Value Dominates
The third quarter was a more favorable environment for active managers in U.S. Large and Small Caps, Japan, Australia, and Canada equities, while being more challenging for Global, Global ex-U.S., Emerging Markets, Europe, UK and Long/Short managers.