Emerging Markets

After Friday’s close, Moody’s downgraded U.S. treasuries, as S&P had 14 years ago, in 2011. I criticized the downgrade then…and I do now. The government cannot technically default, as the Fed can always buy the bonds for any auction.

As markets rebound from a brief but sharp correction, Journey’s investment team reflects on the impact of tariffs, global diversification, and the evolving role of alternatives in investor portfolios. With caution as the theme, this month’s commentary urges investors to revisit risk tolerance and stay grounded in disciplined, long-term strategies amidst ongoing economic uncertainty.

This is the story of how we got to a moment in history defined by global and national crises. It is the story about how a radical geopolitical transition is taking place as old socio-economic and institutional cycles in the US end and new ones begin.

The recent rally began when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent struck a more conciliatory tone with China, saying he expected a de-escalation shortly.

Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.

Stocks have rebounded since the White House delayed steep tariffs that were announced in early April, but trade policy remains a potential driver of volatility.

While equities are on their way to recovering January 1 levels, enhanced volatility lends itself to active ETF strategies this year.

The 90-day reduction on tariffs between the US and China is a positive development, but some questions remain.

So far in 2025, markets have had plenty to absorb: the Trump administration’s tariffs, Germany’s latest investment commitments, the implications of the DeepSeek moment, and escalating military conflicts (now including one on the India-Pakistan border).

We maintain a focus on resiliency as elevated yields within high quality fixed income continue to offer attractive opportunities.

After a brief reprieve from all the recession talk while the Fed was raising rates to decades-old high watermarks, the ‘R’ word has come back into vogue once again post-Liberation day.

On Monday, the U.S. and China announced they will temporarily suspend the high import tariffs they imposed on each other earlier this year.

Despite the announcement of new tariffs, long-term inflation expectations—as measured by the 5y5y inflation rate—have remained stable

Our overarching theme for U.S. fixed income has been, and will continue to be, based on the premise that interest rates will stay at more historically “normal” levels, but that, within this backdrop, investors will face heightened volatility.

By the end of April, the S&P 500 rallied its way back, recovering nearly all the declines notched in the opening days of the month when President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff plans tipped markets towards bear territory.

China has been a focal point of American trade policy for many years, but tensions were escalated early in the second Trump term.

Flows of gold into Asian ETFs exploded in April, driving global ETF gold holdings higher for the fifth straight month.

Assessing a bear market rally proves challenging when you experience it firsthand. It is only in hindsight that the complete picture reveals itself to investors. Of course, after a bear market rally, investors tend to review their investments and speculate on what they should have done differently.

The surprisingly large reduction in mutual tariffs between China and the U.S. announced early Monday morning has sent the markets flying. Trump has softened his approach dramatically and markets are expecting future deals. The base case: everyone at 10%, China at say 20% is still a jump, but at least will likely prevent a recession. Trade and tariffs remain the main focus for markets.

China and the U.S. conducted their first formal trade talks of 2025 over the weekend. And on Monday, May 12, they announced the outcome of their negotiations.

The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.

For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.

I’ve been writing about tariffs for a couple of months now, focusing mostly on the macroeconomic harm and the costs they impose on small businesses. Today I want to consider something else: the new risks they are adding to the financial system alongside the old risks.

Warren Buffett opened his 60th—and final as CEO—Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting with the same understated clarity that has defined his career: "This is my 60th annual meeting... I think it'll be the best yet."

As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight.

China drove the surge in retail investment demand, charting the second strongest quarter on record.

Central banks continued to stockpile gold in the first quarter.

As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.

Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping the level for overnight money 100 basis points (bps) below last year’s peak reading.

Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.

After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.

Market headlines may change daily, but the role of a financial advisor remains remarkably consistent: to be the calm in the storm, the strategist with a plan and—most importantly—the voice of reason when clients need it most.

Over years, the US cemented its position as an exceptional source of earnings growth that fueled outsize equity returns. Many investors are now questioning whether the US will retain its advantages as President Trump’s trade policies add uncertainty to the outlook across industries.

When I was much younger, I worked as a bond salesman for a small regional bank in the southwest. I sold some short-term T-bills to yield 17% and some ten-year T-bonds to yield 14%. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman at the time, had reduced inflation dramatically but the bond market had not yet accepted that new reality and kept interest rates very high for a while after Volker achieved his lower level of inflation.

Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.

Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.

Record gold prices drove first-quarter demand in 2025 to the highest level since 2016.

A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.