Emerging Markets

The longest continuous yield curve inversion has finally come to an end. Or has it? The answer depends on how you measure it.

For a brief moment, when volatility picked up in early August and again in early September, we saw some appetite reappear for low volatility ETFs

In my cycles book I’m reviewing the forecasts of Neil Howe, Peter Turchin, George Friedman, and Ray Dalio. For different historical reasons and patterns, all see a crisis culminating at the end of this decade. Some readers have legitimately pushed back, saying no one knows the future.

As we move into the final stretch of 2024, many investors may be asking themselves: Is it time to give airline stocks another look? According to a new report from Bank of America (BofA), the answer might very well be yes

Due to balance sheet concerns, the higher-for-longer interest rate environment has been a significant headwind for the relative performance of U.S. small-cap equities.

How are bull and bear markets defined and how should you approach them as an investor?

While the pace of Federal Reserve cuts is in question, all roads lead to lower interest rates.

Balanced risks to inflation and employment indicate it’s time for the Fed to normalize interest rates, enhancing a positive backdrop for bonds.

Nvidia’s strong earnings exceeded expectations, but the stock fell as investors recalibrated their expectations given its high valuation.

Post-Jackson Hole and now post-jobs report, the markets can settle in for a rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting.

The next U.S. president will face immediate fiscal challenges.

We learned a long time ago that we wanted to know what smart professional investors were doing. It’s always better to know who is smart rather than being smart yourself. Therefore, we’ve constantly kept track of insider buying, what great investors like Warren Buffett and Carlos Slim were doing, and what the most successful hedge funds were up to. A recent chart stopped us in our tracks.

In a recent interview, Timothy Crawmer, global credit strategist at Payden & Rygel ($156.8 billion AUM), says it is the firm’s view that the Federal Reserve is going to start the rate cutting efforts in September with a 25 by 25 basis points, likely followed by another two 25 basis point cuts in November and December.

In emerging markets, technological advancements present a unique opportunity to empower underserved communities.

Given the backdrop of monetary policy stimulus, the global economy is poised for growth and international stocks for continued leadership.

The BRICS Pay initiative aims to better integrate currencies for trade and facilitate cross-border transactions among its members.

The U.S. economy may be heading into choppy waters, and investors might be wise to buckle up.

The main focus for investors should is no longer if the Fed will cut rates in 2024, but how much and how quickly the Fed will lower interest rates.

Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.

In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically.

Presidential elections tend to have limited impact on market performance, regardless of party win (although markets prefer Democratic switches). Investors should capitalize on the uptick in market volatility, which investors can use for strategic investing.

Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.

A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.

In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.

With his Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell all but promised rate cuts were coming. That’s cool. But it is why that matters.

A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

As more Chinese companies get comfortable paying dividends, investors may find new sources of equity return potential.

In our view, stagflation scenarios tend to be worse for balanced portfolios than recessions.

I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...

As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.

Copper has been trending lower since the middle of May, but supply disruptions in Latin America could help reverse that trend.

As tax season draws nearer, advisors and investors increasingly look to their portfolio to optimize exposures for taxation purposes.

China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.

The path for lower rates in the U.S. has finally arrived.

Is the Japanese yen carry trade back on? Tough question. We think it is, now that the Bank of Japan has toned down its hawkish rhetoric. More on that later. Still, even if we are wrong, the reality is that the market will be talking about the violent ructions of August 2024 for the rest of our careers.

In an election year, we are bound to hear a lot of commentary about the merits and drawbacks of both major candidates’ economic policies. History shows that while a president’s policies can make life easier or more difficult for various sectors of the economy, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy has much more impact on the economy overall.

The healthcare sector offers a compelling mix of defensive characteristics and growth potential driven by innovation. It also features ample dispersion that presents stock pickers with an opportunity to parse potential leaders and laggards in pursuit of above-market return.

High-yield bonds have been one of the best-performing bond investments so far this year, but there may be better entry points down the road.

The most glaring uncertainties today, which contributed to early August seeing some of the largest market moves in the last several years, are the risks associated with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.

Portfolio managers should always have good explanations for their underweight positions. These days, it matters more than ever.

With US payroll and unemployment data surprising to the downside two Fridays ago, Treasury markets quickly repriced the probability of impending recession, helping set off a volatility spike in stocks across the world. According to Bloomberg, economists’ consensus probability of a US recession in the next twelve months is now approximately 30%.

A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.

Elevated budget deficits imply growing US Treasury issuance. Receding demand from central banks could leave more price-sensitive buyers to pick up the slack. Who are the buyers of US government debt, and how is the market responding? In part two of our series, let’s examine Treasury market supply and demand.

The 19th Century American author Mark Twain once said: “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.”

Midstream’s second quarter earnings calls reinforced the positive outlook for US natural gas demand driven in part by expected power demand from data centers. This note discusses the advantages of natural gas for data centers, additional factors contributing to demand growth, and how midstream is uniquely positioned to benefit from these trends.

This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.

Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.

Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.

Since the release of ChatGPT, mega-cap technology companies poised to profit from AI-enhanced software tools or cloud AI-model training capabilities have seen a surge in their stock prices. Yet, many have yet to realize significant AI-driven revenue growth, let alone a substantial impact on their bottom lines.