CEFs stand out due to their fixed capital structure, allowing portfolio managers to focus on long-term investment strategies without the need to manage daily inflows and outflows.
Like all appetites, the consumer typically reaches some point of appeasement. That could be the case for central bank gold purchases, which have started to show signs of receding. But market experts do not see it faltering anytime soon.
Here are some brilliantly simple lessons for us all that I learned from Warren Buffett.
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
Underlying US inflation rose in May by less than forecast for the fourth month in a row, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to consumers.
Analysts at firms including Barclays Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see further upside for US stocks, in part because they expect institutional investors to abandon their cautious stance and ramp up exposure to equities.
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
The push to put private assets in the hands of individual investors is breathing new life into a relatively quiet corner of the asset management industry: interval funds.
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Closed-end funds can offer stable income streams, but also have some benefits over ETFs when it comes to fund structure.
Markets rallied after a surprise tariff rollback, but with valuations stretched and policy signals still mixed, investors appear to be leaning toward flexibility, fundamentals, and selective exposure.
After a brief reprieve from all the recession talk while the Fed was raising rates to decades-old high watermarks, the ‘R’ word has come back into vogue once again post-Liberation day.
Our overarching theme for U.S. fixed income has been, and will continue to be, based on the premise that interest rates will stay at more historically “normal” levels, but that, within this backdrop, investors will face heightened volatility.
Blackstone Inc., Vanguard Group and Wellington Management Co are launching a fund that will invest in public equities, bonds and private markets, as part of their effort to expand private-market offerings to retail clients.
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and how investors can protect their portfolios against the potential for an environment of prolonged and heighted volatility.
During periods of market volatility and declines, investors get concerned. They question their long-term objectives and whether they have more risk in their portfolios than they can tolerate. These are reasonable thoughts to have at times like these.
Compare corporate and municipal bonds, including risks, returns, and tax benefits. Learn which bond type fits your investment goals.
Inflation risk has been a significant topic of discussion in the mainstream media for the last few years.
The first quarter of 2025 marked a significant departure from the preceding two years, which had been characterized by an improving global economy and correspondingly positive market returns. Market performance in Q1 was dominated by abrupt, short-term policy shifts rather than longer-term economic trends, and tariffs became the foremost concern for market participants.
Less favorable seasonal technicals, increased focus on municipal-specific policy risks, and severe volatility spurred by higher-than-anticipated tariff increases weighed heavilyon sentiment and resulted in deeply negative total returns and significant underperformance versus Treasuries in March and early April.
Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.
Market valuation indicators are used by investors and analysts to gauge whether markets are overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued relative to historical norms. Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update monthly.
This article provides information on the history and more recent developments of trust law and the corporate trustee industry. This information will help advisors to make informed decisions on clients’ generational planning choices, and to attract and retain assets.
On this week’s episode of “ETF of the Week,” Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life” discussed the Invesco CEF Income Composite ETF (PCEF) with Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at VettaFi. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
How recent market volatility has contributed to a sharp reversal in global equities.
In this week’s edition, we shift our focus to another critical segment of the ABS market: those tied to consumer loans, such as credit cards and auto loans.
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
Blackstone Inc. has won approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch its newest private credit fund, one of the latest efforts to give individuals access to assets that are mostly backed by institutions.
Investor’s bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with previous market corrections and crashes.
Treasury yields have been falling for weeks. Yet inflation expectations remain high and recent growth data have been fairly strong—not a traditional backdrop for declining yields. What's happening?
High fiscal deficits from tax cuts and tariffs raised concerns about inflation. However, markets have since shifted their focus.
Unlike most of the rest of the world, I will attempt to minimize all there is to say about the beginning of the next 4 years, as the persistent yack and what to make of it reverberates in all corners of the financial globe.
In this primer we define small cap growth funds, provide practical suggestions on how to invest in them, and explain why we believe they are a strategically important asset class.
President Trump’s nomination of Paul Atkins as the next SEC Chair signals a potential sea change in regulatory approach, one that could dramatically reshape the landscape of alternative investments.
Russ Koesterich discusses the risk of higher interest rates and the potential impact (both positive and negative) such a move could have on markets.
Just recently, S&P Global released its 2026 earnings estimates, which, for lack of a better word, have gone parabolic. Such should not be surprising given the ongoing exuberance on Wall Street. Unsurprisingly, rationalizations justify illogic when too much money is chasing too few assets.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF (PCMM) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
US liquefied natural gas exports have extended a record-breaking run as new projects increased production, a trend that could help to ease high prices in Europe and Asia.
Private credit has been one of the most talked-about segments in fixed income markets over the last few years.
At the same time, the Fed has mostly ignored the impact of easy financial conditions—the combination of stock, bond, and credit conditions—offsetting increases in interest rates by bolstering wealth and confidence.
2025 is beginning in much the same manner as 2024, with investors focused on whether the Chinese government is going to implement new stimulus measures.
Market valuation indicators are used by investors and analysts to gauge whether markets are overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued relative to historical norms. Tune in for a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update monthly.
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
Why would a bank suddenly shut down a customer’s adequately funded account? Some leading Republicans, echoing tech titans like Marc Andreessen, have warned of a conspiracy among regulators to “debank” conservatives and crypto enthusiasts.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Karen Carpenter was one the greatest singers of my lifetime. One of her biggest hits was called, “Top of the World.” The key line of the song says, “I’m on top of the world looking down on creation and the only explanation I can find, is the love that I’ve found ever since you’ve been around, you most put me at the top of the world!”
The first month of 2025 will soon be behind us. We’ve seen new inflation data and earnings season start to ramp up.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup, has developed a model that can apparently answer questions as well as any chatbot in the US. It might even help answer a long-running question on Wall Street without being asked.
Let's discuss the recent strong correlation between the appreciating dollar and rising yields, and the reasons for the relationship.
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek’s latest AI model sparked a $1 trillion rout in US and European technology stocks, as investors questioned bloated valuations for some of America’s biggest companies.
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
The strong performance of large-cap stocks over the past decade has left the market exceptionally top-heavy. By some measures, stock market capitalization has never been more concentrated among a handful of large stocks as today.
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
Over the last decade, U.S. large cap growth stocks have been far and away the best performing major financial asset in the world.
The crypto market’s center of gravity is back in the US as 2025 approaches, courtesy of Donald Trump’s reelection to the presidency and widening demand for the nation’s digital-asset funds and derivatives contracts.
To Michael Saylor’s online fanbase, it’s the next step in the great normalization of crypto: Bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy Inc. enters the S&P 500 next year, forcing the likes of index-tracking funds to buy his controversial company en masse. Whether they like it or not.
Almost exactly one year after sparking a furious rally in financial markets, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell did the exact opposite on Wednesday, staking out a cautious view on interest-rate cuts in 2025 that stunned investors.
Why cyclical leadership in equities could continue into 2025.
From Wall Street funds to small-time day traders, those who dared to bet big on Elon Musk’s business empire are closing out the year with hefty payoffs, as Donald Trump’s US election win turbocharges the fortunes of the world’s richest man.
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
We compare investor risk-taking behaviors at the start of the bull market with those nearly 16 years later. We also analyze key market areas that can offer essential diversification to help manage overall portfolio risk.
The question on “everyone’s” mind, whether the back or the front, is where will the stock market be in two, three, six years?
The world’s biggest private credit managers are turning to an obscure investment product to help raise billions from deep-pocketed insurance companies, testing the limits of industry safeguards meant to curb risk.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, well known for his bearish views on US equities in recent years, has an outright bullish outlook for 2025.
With President-elect Donald Trump set to assume office in January, the U.S. military and cybersecurity sectors could experience sweeping changes, creating opportunities for investors who recognize the long-term growth potential in defense and technology.
Municipal bonds broke their winning streak in October, posting negative total returns alongside broader fixed income assets.
When Covid-19 brought the US economy to a standstill in the spring of 2020, America’s top executives called for a “national conversation” about the need for workers to return to work, warning of an “economic catastrophe” if they didn’t.
As we think about investing around a historic election, establishing what we know, what we need to know, and what we can count on is a useful foundation for navigating the uncertainty.
Legendary investors Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller are short bonds. You might want to carefully consider the data before you follow their lead.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why he believes U.S. exceptionalism is a trend that is likely to continue.
Investment grade bonds have long been synonymous with a “core” fixed income allocation, but we believe a flexible strategy also belongs in most bond portfolios, as managers can adjust their exposure based on market conditions.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses gold may continue to serve as a store of value in the current environment.
When inflation begins to upend financial markets, as it has over the past few years, it represents a tremendous disruption.
The stock and bond markets were not spooked in September. The S&P 500 had its best September in the last 11 years with a +2% performance.
It’s almost always bad news when a statement from a prominent company hits late on Friday. For those who missed Boeing Co.’s release at 4:30 p.m. New York Time ahead of a three-day weekend for the bond market, Boeing laid out the ugly truth of blowout operating losses at its commercial aircraft and defense businesses during the third quarter, which combined for about $6.4 billion.
In the past few years it certainly has been. No wonder.
Credit indices rallied during the third quarter, despite a variety of economic headwinds, and it appears FOMO (fear of missing out) is fueling the bullish sentiment more than fundamentals.
The puck has certainly moved since our last market commentary. This month, we argue that the needle on portfolio construction should move with it. Equities have been the driver of returns for much of the last few years.
A return to lower yields has been every bond fund manager's dream since the nightmare of 2022. But now, with expectations dashed that they’d get their wish this year, it appears they’ll have to hang their hopes on 2025.
Private capital – encompassing private equity and private credit – is in the midst of a bit of a renaissance at the moment. IPO activity hit a peak in 2021, the year after the pandemic and then promptly plunged to levels not seen in years.
In the 1989 blockbuster Back to the Future II, time travel enables Michael J. Fox’s nemesis, Biff, to become a gazillionaire by bringing an almanac with sports match outcomes back from the future. We thought it might be instructive, and certainly entertaining, to make a less fanciful version of this dream a reality – for a few lucky people.
Closed End Funds
Unlocking Investment Opportunities in Closed-End Funds
CEFs stand out due to their fixed capital structure, allowing portfolio managers to focus on long-term investment strategies without the need to manage daily inflows and outflows.
Central Bank Gold Buying Recedes, But Not Likely to Falter
Like all appetites, the consumer typically reaches some point of appeasement. That could be the case for central bank gold purchases, which have started to show signs of receding. But market experts do not see it faltering anytime soon.
Lessons on Money & Life I Learned From Warren Buffett
Here are some brilliantly simple lessons for us all that I learned from Warren Buffett.
What Closed-End Funds Could Offer Amid Uncertain Times
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
US Core Inflation Rises Less Than Forecast for Fourth Month
Underlying US inflation rose in May by less than forecast for the fourth month in a row, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to consumers.
Wary Wall Street Positioning Leaves Room for S&P 500 to Rally
Analysts at firms including Barclays Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see further upside for US stocks, in part because they expect institutional investors to abandon their cautious stance and ramp up exposure to equities.
Meet the “Hermès of Gold” the Chinese Can’t Get Enough Of
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
Wall Street Has a Hot Way to Sell Private Assets to the Masses
The push to put private assets in the hands of individual investors is breathing new life into a relatively quiet corner of the asset management industry: interval funds.
Wall Street Has a Hot Way to Sell Private Assets to the Masses
The push to put private assets in the hands of individual investors is breathing new life into a relatively quiet corner of the asset management industry: interval funds.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Why Some ETF Investors May Like Closed-End Funds
Closed-end funds can offer stable income streams, but also have some benefits over ETFs when it comes to fund structure.
Tariff U-Turn; Lingering Doubts
Markets rallied after a surprise tariff rollback, but with valuations stretched and policy signals still mixed, investors appear to be leaning toward flexibility, fundamentals, and selective exposure.
Are We Half-Way to a Recession?
After a brief reprieve from all the recession talk while the Fed was raising rates to decades-old high watermarks, the ‘R’ word has come back into vogue once again post-Liberation day.
Income Without the Volatility…or Credit Exposure
Our overarching theme for U.S. fixed income has been, and will continue to be, based on the premise that interest rates will stay at more historically “normal” levels, but that, within this backdrop, investors will face heightened volatility.
Blackstone, Vanguard, Wellington to Launch Private Markets Fund
Blackstone Inc., Vanguard Group and Wellington Management Co are launching a fund that will invest in public equities, bonds and private markets, as part of their effort to expand private-market offerings to retail clients.
Gridlock
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
Aim to Keep Risk Modest and Quality High
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and how investors can protect their portfolios against the potential for an environment of prolonged and heighted volatility.
Is It Time for Investors to Play the Long Game?
During periods of market volatility and declines, investors get concerned. They question their long-term objectives and whether they have more risk in their portfolios than they can tolerate. These are reasonable thoughts to have at times like these.
Corporate vs. Municipal Bonds: Key Differences Every Investor Should Know
Compare corporate and municipal bonds, including risks, returns, and tax benefits. Learn which bond type fits your investment goals.
Inflation Risk Is Subsiding Rapidly
Inflation risk has been a significant topic of discussion in the mainstream media for the last few years.
Tariff Tremors, Market Rotations, and the Imperative of Optimization
The first quarter of 2025 marked a significant departure from the preceding two years, which had been characterized by an improving global economy and correspondingly positive market returns. Market performance in Q1 was dominated by abrupt, short-term policy shifts rather than longer-term economic trends, and tariffs became the foremost concern for market participants.
2025 Muni Outlook: Stay Invested and Remain Nimble
Less favorable seasonal technicals, increased focus on municipal-specific policy risks, and severe volatility spurred by higher-than-anticipated tariff increases weighed heavily
on sentiment and resulted in deeply negative total returns and significant underperformance versus Treasuries in March and early April.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Ask Again Later"
Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.
Market Valuation: Is The Market Still Overvalued? (March 2025)
Market valuation indicators are used by investors and analysts to gauge whether markets are overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued relative to historical norms. Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update monthly.
An Advisor Road Map to the Corporate Trustee Industry
This article provides information on the history and more recent developments of trust law and the corporate trustee industry. This information will help advisors to make informed decisions on clients’ generational planning choices, and to attract and retain assets.
A Closed-End ETF to Watch
On this week’s episode of “ETF of the Week,” Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life” discussed the Invesco CEF Income Composite ETF (PCEF) with Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at VettaFi. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Volatility Brings Changes to Market Leadership
How recent market volatility has contributed to a sharp reversal in global equities.
Peering Under the Hood of Auto and Credit Card ABS: Insights into US Consumer Resilience
In this week’s edition, we shift our focus to another critical segment of the ABS market: those tied to consumer loans, such as credit cards and auto loans.
Gold Smashes Through $3,000 as Recession Fears Mount
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
SEC Approves Retail-Friendly Blackstone Private Credit Fund
Blackstone Inc. has won approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch its newest private credit fund, one of the latest efforts to give individuals access to assets that are mostly backed by institutions.
Bearish Sentiment Surges As If The Market Just Crashed
Investor’s bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with previous market corrections and crashes.
Treasury Bonds: Why Are Yields Dropping?
Treasury yields have been falling for weeks. Yet inflation expectations remain high and recent growth data have been fairly strong—not a traditional backdrop for declining yields. What's happening?
Growth Concerns Shift Stock and Bond Correlation
High fiscal deficits from tax cuts and tariffs raised concerns about inflation. However, markets have since shifted their focus.
Anarchy in the USA
Unlike most of the rest of the world, I will attempt to minimize all there is to say about the beginning of the next 4 years, as the persistent yack and what to make of it reverberates in all corners of the financial globe.
What is a Small Cap Growth Fund?
In this primer we define small cap growth funds, provide practical suggestions on how to invest in them, and explain why we believe they are a strategically important asset class.
Atkins' SEC and the New Dawn for Alternative Investments
President Trump’s nomination of Paul Atkins as the next SEC Chair signals a potential sea change in regulatory approach, one that could dramatically reshape the landscape of alternative investments.
Rates Still a Risk for Stocks
Russ Koesterich discusses the risk of higher interest rates and the potential impact (both positive and negative) such a move could have on markets.
Estimates By Analysts Have Gone Parabolic
Just recently, S&P Global released its 2026 earnings estimates, which, for lack of a better word, have gone parabolic. Such should not be surprising given the ongoing exuberance on Wall Street. Unsurprisingly, rationalizations justify illogic when too much money is chasing too few assets.
BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF (PCMM)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF (PCMM) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Record US LNG Exports May Give Relief to Buyers in Europe, Asia
US liquefied natural gas exports have extended a record-breaking run as new projects increased production, a trend that could help to ease high prices in Europe and Asia.
Public vs. Private Credit: Finding Their Lanes in 2025
Private credit has been one of the most talked-about segments in fixed income markets over the last few years.
Navigating the (New) Conundrum
At the same time, the Fed has mostly ignored the impact of easy financial conditions—the combination of stock, bond, and credit conditions—offsetting increases in interest rates by bolstering wealth and confidence.
AI Innovations and Trade Tariffs: The Outlook for China in 2025
2025 is beginning in much the same manner as 2024, with investors focused on whether the Chinese government is going to implement new stimulus measures.
Market Valuation: Is The Market Still Overvalued? (January 2025)
Market valuation indicators are used by investors and analysts to gauge whether markets are overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued relative to historical norms. Tune in for a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update monthly.
Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Fire: Selling a Highly Appreciated Stock Without Paying Taxes?
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
Investors See High-Grade Debt, MBS as Top Bets of 2025
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
Principal, Pimco Bet on Debt From Riskier High-Grade Companies
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
‘Debanking’ Dispute Highlights a Real Problem
Why would a bank suddenly shut down a customer’s adequately funded account? Some leading Republicans, echoing tech titans like Marc Andreessen, have warned of a conspiracy among regulators to “debank” conservatives and crypto enthusiasts.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Index Mania: On Top of the World
Karen Carpenter was one the greatest singers of my lifetime. One of her biggest hits was called, “Top of the World.” The key line of the song says, “I’m on top of the world looking down on creation and the only explanation I can find, is the love that I’ve found ever since you’ve been around, you most put me at the top of the world!”
The Trends Set to Make Us Money in 2025
The first month of 2025 will soon be behind us. We’ve seen new inflation data and earnings season start to ramp up.
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Nvidia’s Stock Crash Solves a Wall Street Puzzle
DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup, has developed a model that can apparently answer questions as well as any chatbot in the US. It might even help answer a long-running question on Wall Street without being asked.
It's the Dollar, Stupid
Let's discuss the recent strong correlation between the appreciating dollar and rising yields, and the reasons for the relationship.
DeepSeek Buzz Puts Tech Shares on Track for $1 Trillion Drop
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek’s latest AI model sparked a $1 trillion rout in US and European technology stocks, as investors questioned bloated valuations for some of America’s biggest companies.
A Deep Dive on the Recent Spike in U.S. Treasury Yields
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Slimming Down a Top-Heavy Market
The strong performance of large-cap stocks over the past decade has left the market exceptionally top-heavy. By some measures, stock market capitalization has never been more concentrated among a handful of large stocks as today.
Asset Allocation Interactive at 10 Years: The Good, the Not Too Bad, and the Ugly
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
With New Risks Surfacing, How Should Investors Position Portfolios in 2025?
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
Bargain, Value Trap or Something in Between?
Over the last decade, U.S. large cap growth stocks have been far and away the best performing major financial asset in the world.
US Regains Primacy in Crypto Market on Trump Agenda, ETF Demand
The crypto market’s center of gravity is back in the US as 2025 approaches, courtesy of Donald Trump’s reelection to the presidency and widening demand for the nation’s digital-asset funds and derivatives contracts.
MicroStrategy’s Long-Shot S&P 500 Bid Stokes Wall Street Agita
To Michael Saylor’s online fanbase, it’s the next step in the great normalization of crypto: Bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy Inc. enters the S&P 500 next year, forcing the likes of index-tracking funds to buy his controversial company en masse. Whether they like it or not.
Wall Street Traders Rush for Exit After Fed’s Rate-Cut Shift
Almost exactly one year after sparking a furious rally in financial markets, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell did the exact opposite on Wednesday, staking out a cautious view on interest-rate cuts in 2025 that stunned investors.
Economic Resilience Supports Cyclical Rally
Why cyclical leadership in equities could continue into 2025.
A 500% Rally Shows the Elon Musk Euphoria for Bold-Faced Fund
From Wall Street funds to small-time day traders, those who dared to bet big on Elon Musk’s business empire are closing out the year with hefty payoffs, as Donald Trump’s US election win turbocharges the fortunes of the world’s richest man.
A 500% Rally Shows the Elon Musk Euphoria for Bold-Faced Fund
From Wall Street funds to small-time day traders, those who dared to bet big on Elon Musk’s business empire are closing out the year with hefty payoffs, as Donald Trump’s US election win turbocharges the fortunes of the world’s richest man.
2025 U.S. Stocks and Economy Outlook
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
Emphasize Value as Investors Increasingly Throw Caution to the Wind
We compare investor risk-taking behaviors at the start of the bull market with those nearly 16 years later. We also analyze key market areas that can offer essential diversification to help manage overall portfolio risk.
The Changing Nature of the Stock Market
The question on “everyone’s” mind, whether the back or the front, is where will the stock market be in two, three, six years?
Backdoor Private Credit Funds Are Luring Billions From Insurers
The world’s biggest private credit managers are turning to an obscure investment product to help raise billions from deep-pocketed insurance companies, testing the limits of industry safeguards meant to curb risk.
Prominent Wall Street Bear Wilson Sets Bullish US Stocks Target
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, well known for his bearish views on US equities in recent years, has an outright bullish outlook for 2025.
How Trump’s Second Term Could Impact Defense and Cybersecurity Spending
With President-elect Donald Trump set to assume office in January, the U.S. military and cybersecurity sectors could experience sweeping changes, creating opportunities for investors who recognize the long-term growth potential in defense and technology.
Active Management Will Drive Muni Returns in 2024
Municipal bonds broke their winning streak in October, posting negative total returns alongside broader fixed income assets.
Boeing Shows Why Squeezing Workers Is Reckless
When Covid-19 brought the US economy to a standstill in the spring of 2020, America’s top executives called for a “national conversation” about the need for workers to return to work, warning of an “economic catastrophe” if they didn’t.
Investing Around the Election and the Government Debt Problem
As we think about investing around a historic election, establishing what we know, what we need to know, and what we can count on is a useful foundation for navigating the uncertainty.
Can Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller Be Wrong?
Legendary investors Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller are short bonds. You might want to carefully consider the data before you follow their lead.
Reasons to Remain Overweight U.S. Stocks
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why he believes U.S. exceptionalism is a trend that is likely to continue.
The Benefits of a Flexible Core
Investment grade bonds have long been synonymous with a “core” fixed income allocation, but we believe a flexible strategy also belongs in most bond portfolios, as managers can adjust their exposure based on market conditions.
Gold’s Stars Continue to Align
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses gold may continue to serve as a store of value in the current environment.
In Lieu of the Bountiful Triple Dip
When inflation begins to upend financial markets, as it has over the past few years, it represents a tremendous disruption.
Trick Or Treat?
The stock and bond markets were not spooked in September. The S&P 500 had its best September in the last 11 years with a +2% performance.
Boeing Needs Some Help to Stem Its Cash Burn and Losses
It’s almost always bad news when a statement from a prominent company hits late on Friday. For those who missed Boeing Co.’s release at 4:30 p.m. New York Time ahead of a three-day weekend for the bond market, Boeing laid out the ugly truth of blowout operating losses at its commercial aircraft and defense businesses during the third quarter, which combined for about $6.4 billion.
It’s a Bull Market You Know?
In the past few years it certainly has been. No wonder.
Fourth Quarter Strategic Income Outlook
Credit indices rallied during the third quarter, despite a variety of economic headwinds, and it appears FOMO (fear of missing out) is fueling the bullish sentiment more than fundamentals.
Moving the Needle
The puck has certainly moved since our last market commentary. This month, we argue that the needle on portfolio construction should move with it. Equities have been the driver of returns for much of the last few years.
For Bond Traders, It’s Wait Till Next Year (Again)
A return to lower yields has been every bond fund manager's dream since the nightmare of 2022. But now, with expectations dashed that they’d get their wish this year, it appears they’ll have to hang their hopes on 2025.
White Wolf Brings Private Capital Expertise to the Public Via LBO
Private capital – encompassing private equity and private credit – is in the midst of a bit of a renaissance at the moment. IPO activity hit a peak in 2021, the year after the pandemic and then promptly plunged to levels not seen in years.
When a Crystal Ball Isn’t Enough to Make You Rich
In the 1989 blockbuster Back to the Future II, time travel enables Michael J. Fox’s nemesis, Biff, to become a gazillionaire by bringing an almanac with sports match outcomes back from the future. We thought it might be instructive, and certainly entertaining, to make a less fanciful version of this dream a reality – for a few lucky people.