We have seen a lack of conviction from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in previous opportunities. Last year, during the first quarter, Fed members were spooked, as inflation numbers moved higher, changing their view on the path forward regarding interest rates.
Gas prices jumped to their highest level in eleven weeks. As of June 23rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each up 7 cents from the previous week.
Whether you’re breaking away from a wirehouse and going independent for the first time or looking for a greater degree of balance, there are opportunities for advisors to truly manage their practice the way they choose.
CEFs stand out due to their fixed capital structure, allowing portfolio managers to focus on long-term investment strategies without the need to manage daily inflows and outflows.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® retreated in June, paring back nearly half of May's gains. The index fell 5.4 points to 93.0 this month, marking its sixth monthly decline in the past seven months.
Fifth district manufacturing activity remained soft in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose two points this month to -7, remaining in negative territory for a fourth straight month. This month's reading was higher than the forecast of -10.
As tensions in the Middle East mounted to start the week, Wall Street strategists had a message for US equities investors: Stay calm and buy into market declines. The call looked prescient on Tuesday after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Home prices declined in April as the benchmark national index fell for a second straight month. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month and a 2.7% increase year-over-year. This marks the third straight month of year-over-year declines and is the smallest annual gain since August 2023. After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change fell to -0.8% and annual change fell to -1.5%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 434.9 in April, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.4% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 3.0% from one year ago.
When navigating the unknown, an experienced guide can ensure you don’t veer off the path to your chosen destination, can prevent you from stumbling over hazards, and ensure you have the tools you need to finish the journey safely and soundly.
The U.S. Dollar Index, when measured against a basket of other major currencies, has declined by approximately 10% this year through mid-June and is currently trading at its lowest level in three years.
Like all appetites, the consumer typically reaches some point of appeasement. That could be the case for central bank gold purchases, which have started to show signs of receding. But market experts do not see it faltering anytime soon.
Looking back on it, the first quarter of the year was a complete anomaly. Real GDP declined at a 0.2% annual rate, and the left side of the political spectrum said this proved current policies were a disaster.
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 23, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 20.72%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 13.32% while Canada's TSX is in third with a year to date gain of 6.87%.
When investors approach the financial markets, there’s a tendency to imagine that conditions can be judged as favorable or unfavorable based on one single measure or another. The fact is that market conditions at any moment in time are a composite of interdependent forces.
Here are some brilliantly simple lessons for us all that I learned from Warren Buffett.
Wall Street has a new favorite investor. They’re young, they’re affluent and they’re skeptical that traditional markets can deliver wealth over the long haul. Shaped by financial crises and fueled by tech optimism, this well-heeled class of Millennials and Gen Z are moving their money into the buzzy world of alternative assets.
Existing home sales unexpectedly inched up in May. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 0.8% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million units.
Mid-2025 is approaching, and exchange traded fund demand continues its robust growth. Last year was a landmark year for the ETF industry, with industry net inflows for the first time surpassing $1 trillion and one ETF exceeding $100 billion in net inflows.
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of inflation and potentially higher unemployment remained high.
Market concentration rewarded passive investors who held market weights in the surging mega-caps. Since late 2014, passive index returns ranked in the 10th percentile of all portfolios in eVestment’s US Large Cap Growth Equity universe. In other words, only 10% of active managers outperformed.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 20, 2025 at 4.38%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at 4.89%.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
How big data, AI and the human element can combine to better pursue consistent alpha.
The overall U.S. equity market has fully recovered from its April lows, landing in an essentially flat position as of 5/31/2025. However, it’s been a wild ride for many investors.
Equities have been on quite the roller coaster in 2025. Although the tariff situation has driven much of this volatility, we find ourselves in a similar spot to where we began the year.
Home values fell for a third straight month in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 13th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in over four years.
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
For more than two years, conversations about the biggest, most important technology companies have revolved around the same seven stocks. Now, some on Wall Street are making the case that Broadcom Inc. should be part of that discussion.
Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million in May, its lowest level in over five years.
In this article, we’ll explore how crypto index ETFs are structured, how they differ from single-asset products, and how financial professionals can incorporate them into diversified portfolios with clear goals around sizing, suitability, and risk management.
We remain bullish about many of the corporate changes taking place in Japan. Toyota Group recently announced it was taking Toyota Industries private (its auto parts and forklift business) to simplify the group’s structure.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the recent performance of gold and its ongoing role as a store of value in investors’ portfolios.
If there is something the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not want to see today, as it approaches next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it is a shock to oil prices.
The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room.
Smart beta strategies have endured a prolonged stretch of disappointing results, falling short of investor expectations. This article explores the underlying causes of that performance and outlines why the conditions ahead could be more favorable.
Treasury yields declined Tuesday as US economic data left intact expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once more in 2025.
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
The ETF market has hit a symbolic turning point: active funds now outnumber passive ones for the first time, marking a sharp break from the industry’s index-tracking origins — even if actively managed assets still account for just a tenth of assets.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of June 6th, the index was at 8.404, down 1.218 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
The calm before the storm is here – and the Fed knows it won’t last. This week’s Fed meeting is expected to be relatively straightforward.
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard this week at Wealth Management’s EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession.
If the market view on the administration's economic policies shifts and a strong dollar policy remains, the dollar could rally, and U.S. assets might see a rebound from their recent underperformance.
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence.
Separating the signal from the noise may be the hardest challenge investors face. We’re all surrounded by constantly changing but mostly unimportant information. Of the small part that really is important, we must decide if it affects our investments.
Fears of an impending recession may be fading, but economists are still expecting tepid GDP growth for the year.
Investment banks and private equity firms are fighting over the kids again.
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, boosted its annual revenue target for 2030 and set its first-ever firmwide target for private-markets fundraising at $400 billion by then.
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Robotics was one of the earliest examples of a disruptive technology. It enjoyed some time in the investment community limelight. But it was rapidly usurped by other innovative technologies, including AI.
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of May, the labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, down from 62.6% the previous month.
A college degree may be a milestone that represents one possible career path. But it’s not your only route toward a future that is both financially sound and deeply fulfilling.
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Stablecoins are a special flavor of cryptocurrency. Unlike Bitcoin or countless wildly traded memecoins, whose values rise and fall based on market moods, the most popular versions of these digital tokens are supposed to always be worth $1 each.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Markets may be fretting over Federal Reserve policy and economic soft landings, but a handful of momentum ETFs have quietly been stealing the show. Across the array of factor funds, momentum has performed best this year.
As we head into the second half of the year, US markets seem to be turning around, with economic data that is still coming in mixed. The major US indices were up the first three days of last week, dipping on Thursday after weaker back-to-back readings of the US labor market.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Investors nearing or in retirement who are currently defaulted into TDFs need to stop defaulting and move to safety now.
As small business clients look toward ambitious growth, advisors have the chance to offer something foundational: a term life insurance strategy that turns ambitions into a legacy.
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in May.
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Small Cap
A Concerning Press Conference From the Fed Chairman
We have seen a lack of conviction from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in previous opportunities. Last year, during the first quarter, Fed members were spooked, as inflation numbers moved higher, changing their view on the path forward regarding interest rates.
Gas Prices Jump to 11-Week High
Gas prices jumped to their highest level in eleven weeks. As of June 23rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each up 7 cents from the previous week.
Getting the Flexibility to Serve Clients as You’d Like To
Whether you’re breaking away from a wirehouse and going independent for the first time or looking for a greater degree of balance, there are opportunities for advisors to truly manage their practice the way they choose.
Unlocking Investment Opportunities in Closed-End Funds
CEFs stand out due to their fixed capital structure, allowing portfolio managers to focus on long-term investment strategies without the need to manage daily inflows and outflows.
Consumer Confidence Retreats in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® retreated in June, paring back nearly half of May's gains. The index fell 5.4 points to 93.0 this month, marking its sixth monthly decline in the past seven months.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Remained Soft in June
Fifth district manufacturing activity remained soft in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose two points this month to -7, remaining in negative territory for a fourth straight month. This month's reading was higher than the forecast of -10.
Wall Street Says Buy Tech as Geopolitical Risks Often Contained
As tensions in the Middle East mounted to start the week, Wall Street strategists had a message for US equities investors: Stay calm and buy into market declines. The call looked prescient on Tuesday after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Annual Gains Continue to Slow
Home prices declined in April as the benchmark national index fell for a second straight month. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month and a 2.7% increase year-over-year. This marks the third straight month of year-over-year declines and is the smallest annual gain since August 2023. After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change fell to -0.8% and annual change fell to -1.5%.
FHFA House Price Index Down 0.4% in April
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 434.9 in April, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.4% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 3.0% from one year ago.
Value of an Advisor 10th Anniversary Edition: The Importance of an Experienced Guide June
When navigating the unknown, an experienced guide can ensure you don’t veer off the path to your chosen destination, can prevent you from stumbling over hazards, and ensure you have the tools you need to finish the journey safely and soundly.
Gold Surpasses Euro as the Second-Largest Reserve Currency in the World
The U.S. Dollar Index, when measured against a basket of other major currencies, has declined by approximately 10% this year through mid-June and is currently trading at its lowest level in three years.
Central Bank Gold Buying Recedes, But Not Likely to Falter
Like all appetites, the consumer typically reaches some point of appeasement. That could be the case for central bank gold purchases, which have started to show signs of receding. But market experts do not see it faltering anytime soon.
Mirror-Image Quarters and Iran
Looking back on it, the first quarter of the year was a complete anomaly. Real GDP declined at a 0.2% annual rate, and the left side of the political spectrum said this proved current policies were a disaster.
World Markets Watchlist: June 23, 2025
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 23, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 20.72%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 13.32% while Canada's TSX is in third with a year to date gain of 6.87%.
The Bubble – Contains the Collapse – Contains the Resurgence
When investors approach the financial markets, there’s a tendency to imagine that conditions can be judged as favorable or unfavorable based on one single measure or another. The fact is that market conditions at any moment in time are a composite of interdependent forces.
Lessons on Money & Life I Learned From Warren Buffett
Here are some brilliantly simple lessons for us all that I learned from Warren Buffett.
Young Investor Demand for Alternative Assets Is Reshaping Wall Street's Playbook
Wall Street has a new favorite investor. They’re young, they’re affluent and they’re skeptical that traditional markets can deliver wealth over the long haul. Shaped by financial crises and fueled by tech optimism, this well-heeled class of Millennials and Gen Z are moving their money into the buzzy world of alternative assets.
Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Inch Up in May
Existing home sales unexpectedly inched up in May. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 0.8% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million units.
ETF Records Were Made to Be Broken
Mid-2025 is approaching, and exchange traded fund demand continues its robust growth. Last year was a landmark year for the ETF industry, with industry net inflows for the first time surpassing $1 trillion and one ETF exceeding $100 billion in net inflows.
Fed Keeps Rates Steady, Says Risks Still Elevated
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of inflation and potentially higher unemployment remained high.
How Market Concentration Shapes Passive and Active Equity Returns
Market concentration rewarded passive investors who held market weights in the surging mega-caps. Since late 2014, passive index returns ranked in the 10th percentile of all portfolios in eVestment’s US Large Cap Growth Equity universe. In other words, only 10% of active managers outperformed.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 20, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 20, 2025 at 4.38%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at 4.89%.
America's Driving Habits: April 2025
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Remained Weak in June
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
Alpha Reimagined
How big data, AI and the human element can combine to better pursue consistent alpha.
The Case for Going Global Now
The overall U.S. equity market has fully recovered from its April lows, landing in an essentially flat position as of 5/31/2025. However, it’s been a wild ride for many investors.
2025 Midyear Outlook: Big Expectations and Big Uncertainty for Equities
Equities have been on quite the roller coaster in 2025. Although the tariff situation has driven much of this volatility, we find ourselves in a similar spot to where we began the year.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Values Hit Lowest Level in Over Four Years
Home values fell for a third straight month in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 13th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in over four years.
The Fed's Financial Accounts: What Are Uncle Sam's Largest Assets?
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
Broadcom’s 340% Rally Has Wall Street Debating If It's Magnificent Seven Material
For more than two years, conversations about the biggest, most important technology companies have revolved around the same seven stocks. Now, some on Wall Street are making the case that Broadcom Inc. should be part of that discussion.
M&A Watch: A String of Hot IPOs Could Spark Second-Half Dealmaking
Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans.
Housing Starts Fall to 5-Year Low in May
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million in May, its lowest level in over five years.
Crypto Index ETFs, Explained for Financial Professionals
In this article, we’ll explore how crypto index ETFs are structured, how they differ from single-asset products, and how financial professionals can incorporate them into diversified portfolios with clear goals around sizing, suitability, and risk management.
As Japanese Companies Change, Investment Opportunities Bloom
We remain bullish about many of the corporate changes taking place in Japan. Toyota Group recently announced it was taking Toyota Industries private (its auto parts and forklift business) to simplify the group’s structure.
Hold Onto Your Gold
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the recent performance of gold and its ongoing role as a store of value in investors’ portfolios.
Higher Oil Prices Complicate Monetary Policy
If there is something the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not want to see today, as it approaches next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it is a shock to oil prices.
2025 Midyear Outlook: Where the Economy and Markets Go From Here
The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room.
How Can “Smart Beta” Go Horribly Right?
Smart beta strategies have endured a prolonged stretch of disappointing results, falling short of investor expectations. This article explores the underlying causes of that performance and outlines why the conditions ahead could be more favorable.
Treasuries Hold Gains as Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Remain Intact
Treasury yields declined Tuesday as US economic data left intact expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once more in 2025.
Bigger Than Tariffs
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Fall 1.0% in May
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
Active ETFs Now Outnumber Passive Funds in Industry Watershed Moment
The ETF market has hit a symbolic turning point: active funds now outnumber passive ones for the first time, marking a sharp break from the industry’s index-tracking origins — even if actively managed assets still account for just a tenth of assets.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Drops to 2.5-Year Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Stocks Rally in May as Tariff Fears Subside; Long Yields Move Higher
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
Retail Sales Sink 0.9% in May, Worse Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of June 6th, the index was at 8.404, down 1.218 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Early Signs of Economic Weakness are Starting to Emerge
The calm before the storm is here – and the Fed knows it won’t last. This week’s Fed meeting is expected to be relatively straightforward.
It’s Not About Trump
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
Trump’s Trade Deal with China Is a Tailwind for Global Shipping
President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard this week at Wealth Management’s EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession.
What's Happening With the Dollar?
If the market view on the administration's economic policies shifts and a strong dollar policy remains, the dollar could rally, and U.S. assets might see a rebound from their recent underperformance.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Continued to Decline in June
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
Household Net Worth Q1 2025: The "Real" Story
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
The Deficit Narrative May Find its Cure in Artificial Intelligence
Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence.
The Investment Signal in the Noise
Separating the signal from the noise may be the hardest challenge investors face. We’re all surrounded by constantly changing but mostly unimportant information. Of the small part that really is important, we must decide if it affects our investments.
Building Steady Streams: Dividend ETFs in Focus
Fears of an impending recession may be fading, but economists are still expecting tepid GDP growth for the year.
JPMorgan Can Retain Junior Bankers With Cash, Not Threats
Investment banks and private equity firms are fighting over the kids again.
Gold has Glittered Amidst Storming Markets
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
Equities Outlook: Era of Rapid Change Creates Opportunities
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
Should Investors Consider Options-Based Strategies to Help Manage Portfolio Risk?
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
Harvard and Yale Will Finally Lift the Veil on Private Assets
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Cooler Than Expected in May
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
BlackRock Targets $400 Billion Private-Market Haul by 2030
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, boosted its annual revenue target for 2030 and set its first-ever firmwide target for private-markets fundraising at $400 billion by then.
Deficit Pressures Treasuries… But No Crisis: US Treasury Market Is ‘Too Big to Fail’
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Gundlach: Illiquid Assets Don’t Belong in Liquid Vehicles
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
Real Middle Class Wages as of May 2025
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: May 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises to 2.4% in May, Lower Than Expected
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
US Stocks Waffle as Traders Weigh US-China Trade Progress
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
A Focus on Fundamentals
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
What's the 10-Year Outlook for Major Asset Classes?
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
The Infrastructure That Lets the Future Happen
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Intersection of Robotics & AI: Crucial Theme for Tech Sector
Robotics was one of the earliest examples of a disruptive technology. It enjoyed some time in the investment community limelight. But it was rapidly usurped by other innovative technologies, including AI.
Going Abroad for a Free Lunch
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
Long-Term Employment Trends by Age and Gender: May 2025
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of May, the labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, down from 62.6% the previous month.
To Graduates: Skilled Trades Can Be a Practical Path to Success
A college degree may be a milestone that represents one possible career path. But it’s not your only route toward a future that is both financially sound and deeply fulfilling.
What's Holding Back Small Caps?
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Stablecoins Bring Crypto to the Mainstream. What Could Go Wrong?
Stablecoins are a special flavor of cryptocurrency. Unlike Bitcoin or countless wildly traded memecoins, whose values rise and fall based on market moods, the most popular versions of these digital tokens are supposed to always be worth $1 each.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Recovered Slightly in May
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
Meet the “Hermès of Gold” the Chinese Can’t Get Enough Of
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
Mid-Year Outlook: International Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Momentum ETFs Regaining Mojo
Markets may be fretting over Federal Reserve policy and economic soft landings, but a handful of momentum ETFs have quietly been stealing the show. Across the array of factor funds, momentum has performed best this year.
Reverse Splits Start to Moderate After Hitting a Record High in Q1 2025
As we head into the second half of the year, US markets seem to be turning around, with economic data that is still coming in mixed. The major US indices were up the first three days of last week, dipping on Thursday after weaker back-to-back readings of the US labor market.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: May 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: May 2025
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
401(k) Podcast Warns Baby Boomers in Target Date Funds to Get Out
Investors nearing or in retirement who are currently defaulted into TDFs need to stop defaulting and move to safety now.
Employee of the Month: Term Life Insurance
As small business clients look toward ambitious growth, advisors have the chance to offer something foundational: a term life insurance strategy that turns ambitions into a legacy.
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.2% of Workers in May 2025
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in May.
US Stocks Fluctuate as US-China Trade Talks Kick Off in London
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.