Small Cap

A portfolio’s return is driven by its investment strategy—a set of decisions that governs allocation and timing of capital among the portfolio’s positions.

Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.

A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.

Many analysts project China will soon be larger by GDP than the US—which shouldn’t be so hard with a population four times larger—but it’s not clear to me that China’s seemingly unlimited linear growth will continue three or four more decades. I can remember when the same was said about Japan.

In his renomination hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the key to maximum sustainable employment and financial stability was keeping inflation low.

When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise.

The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.

For China, the year ahead holds special political and economic significance.

All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend.

There are three pillars of investing for us at Smead Capital Management.

Howard Marks’s latest memo considers one of investing’s most fundamental questions: when to sell. Howard explains that it’s foolish to sell because prices are up and because they’re down – and why, most of the time, staying invested is ultimately “the most important thing.”

Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks.

Few inventions have touched so many lives as the container.

Today I’ll continue the annual forecast I began last week. New COVID developments are unfolding rapidly. If we’re lucky, they may carve out a nice bookend for us. But my worry is that rather than bookends it could be economicus interruptus. 2019 was not portending the most robust of economies. What if, in Groundhog Day fashion, we end up back where we were?

In an economy where the Fed has lost every systematic tether to common sense, empirical evidence, and concern for financial stability, it’s worth beginning this first market comment of 2022 by recalling the ways we’ve adapted in order to navigate that environment.

As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.

The year ended on a highly upbeat tone for investors as equities rose to new heights against a backdrop of inflation and a prolonged pandemic

In our Q3 market commentary, we described the primary economic fears behind a lackluster and trendless market.

2021 is now in the rear-view mirror and I believe that future financial historians may regard it as the year of peak speculation.

The Federal Reserve dealt the bond market a sharp body blow on January 5th with the release of the minutes of its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in December 2021.

Impact investing is gaining interest as a growing share of investors seeks tangible progress on environmental and social goals alongside financial returns.

Inflation is rising rapidly, not an unexpected outcome given governments’ pandemic policy response of ballooning deficits and soaring government debt.

The global macro environment is ripe for EM assets outperformance as a combination of stronger growth in China, the end of exceptionalism in the US and less uncertainty on US interest rates, lead to a strong backdrop for EM assets.

Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.

“Speculative” is a word that aptly sums up the year 2021.

“Jobs day” last Friday was a bit of a dud.

Long before supply chain issues and soaring consumer prices made the headlines, I warned readers that massive monetary expansion made persistent inflation inevitable.

January market trends historically set the direction for the full year per his title “As January Goes”. Well, so far, not so good!

Rates have seemed lower than they should be for a long time. With inflation surging higher now, it is critical investors solve this puzzle so they can construct portfolios accordingly

Most global equity managers today are underweight Japan.

Many analysts were disappointed by last Friday’s job report for December, but we think the headline masks an overall report that shows continued improvement in the labor market and a possible surge in small-business start-ups and entrepreneurship.

What has been a tumultuous last few months for crypto markets has only accelerated through the turn of the New Year.

One of WisdomTree’s flagship value Funds made some notable changes at the start of the new year.

Twenty-two years of tradition dictate I begin the new year by forecasting what lies ahead.

Every year around this time, we update our always-popular Periodic Table of Commodities Returns.

Excess cash has accumulated in every corner of the economy.

Talent is quitting. And new talent is hard to hire.

Every year has plenty of lessons when looking backward in December.

India reported spending a record $55.7 billion on gold imports last year.

If you have read the Absolute Return Letter for years, you will be aware that the January letter always stands out from the others.

Not much has changed in regards to my economic growth outlook going forward since my most recent growth cycle update.

As soon as an asset owner allocates capital to more than one manager, an interaction effect exists which will have an impact on the investor’s overall portfolio outcome.

In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman explains why China’s 2022 investment environment will be defined by two competing weather patterns.