Small Cap

Last week’s economic data was plagued by uncertainty. A brief respite in inflation pressures was overshadowed by sentiment concerns.

One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.

Markets have been overwhelmed lately by the administration’s fast-paced and, many times, highly uncertain tariff measures.

Banks’ retreat is creating opportunity for investors.

Understanding actual inflation – instead of what the media’s narrative tells you it should be – is critical to your investment planning. It is one thing for a pundit to say this or that, but it is another to look at the actual data for yourself.

Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.

During the onset of the COVID crisis, I made a note to myself to write an update in five years to discuss what happened to the markets since that trying period of time. This week, I received a task alert in Salesforce reminding me to write that update.

News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.

The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.

In a world of rich valuations and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, we believe Japanese equities are well positioned to deliver attractive returns.

Three months into 2025, the U.S. IPO (initial public offering) market remains in a rut. Why? And, perhaps just as importantly, is a rebound still possible?

As we wade into March, market volatility is at the forefront, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and mixed economic signals. Though the S&P 500 experienced a bounce towards February's end, it slipped 1% overall, revealing lingering challenges for iconic tech stocks and the broader equity landscape.

As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP.

Economic growth, earnings performance, and rising fiscal spending coupled with "America First" policies are driving international stock markets.

For decades, the U.S. dollar’s dominance has rested on two pillars: America’s deep capital markets and its global security alliances. Today, both are under strain.

The EV shakeout is underway. When the dust settles, only a few players will remain. Many more will be relegated to the scrapyard of failed ambitions.

At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.

It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone calls that change things. All of this clearly has an impact on the market. So, we are not surprised to see stock market volatility.

I will again join forces with Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research to explore this data more deeply. Currently we have several powerful trends that have combined to create a nirvana-like market.

The U.S. has poured more than $120 billion into Ukraine since its war with Russia began three years ago, but with a new administration in Washington, that support is grinding to a halt.

On March 4, 2025, the Trump administration imposed tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico and increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 20% from the previous 10% imposed earlier in the year.

Volatility is back in town. Tariff jitters and concerns about growth and inflation have resulted in an S&P 500® dip and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumping above 20. Investors grapple with a very sanguine backdrop painted by the fourth-quarter earnings season and policy uncertainty.

As daily headlines drive volatility, the market has avoided overreacting thus far.

We view quarterly earnings season as a critical checkup on how markets are handling current challenges.

We manage risk tactically over the short-term by investing across a broad array of themes and asset classes including cash.

Unlike most of the rest of the world, I will attempt to minimize all there is to say about the beginning of the next 4 years, as the persistent yack and what to make of it reverberates in all corners of the financial globe.

In this primer we define small cap growth funds, provide practical suggestions on how to invest in them, and explain why we believe they are a strategically important asset class.

February’s market turbulence saw investors pivot toward defensive strategies as policy uncertainty intensified, driving a broad market rotation from mega-cap tech stocks to bonds, gold, and international equities.

Heightened economic uncertainty—propelled mainly by trade policy—has unearthed weakness in the equity market, with most pain felt under the market's surface.

We wrote in last month's letter that the U.S. stock market had to meet lofty earnings expectations to maintain its strong performance relative to global benchmarks, while the latter had a lower bar because of considerably cheaper valuation multiples and higher dividend yields.

It’s not U.S. tariffs we need to be fixated on to gauge China’s economic growth trajectory but the ability of its leadership to rebuild confidence among entrepreneurs and consumers.

Russ Koesterich discusses the risk of higher interest rates and the potential impact (both positive and negative) such a move could have on markets.

Just recently, S&P Global released its 2026 earnings estimates, which, for lack of a better word, have gone parabolic. Such should not be surprising given the ongoing exuberance on Wall Street. Unsurprisingly, rationalizations justify illogic when too much money is chasing too few assets.

We understand that in the business world the word ‘monetization’ of a service a company provides has become one of the most important words as, if successful, this monetization increases the valuation of that company’s stock price.

Today we are going to revisit that matrix updated through 2024. We will see what we got right and wrong, what further inferences we can now make and why I think it confirms my general shift in market strategy over the past few years.