Markets are always changing — and sometimes the rules of finance do, too. I believe markets are efficient, which means my investment portfolio is pretty much all index funds. My enthusiasm for indexing is based on evidence from the Before Times, when the question of a corporation’s index-worthiness was straightforward.
Small Cap
Is AI Inflationary or Deflationary?
The AI boom goes from strength to strength. Big technology companies are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into chips, data centers and power-hungry infrastructure. One estimate puts annual AI infrastructure investment above $650 billion in 2025 and potentially over $800 billion in 2026..
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 26, 2026
The yield on the 10-year note finished June 26, 2026 at 4.38% while the 2-year note ended at 4.07%.
Private Credit, Explained
Private credit is having a moment in the headlines. Higher interest rates and a pullback in certain types of bank lending have pushed more financing activity into private markets. Investors may be left with a simple question: What exactly is private credit?
Market Broadening, AI, and the Case for Diversification
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
AI Is a Secular Growth Unicorn
AI is both a foundational technology and the ultimate replacement product, which we believe explains why it has attracted unprecedented levels of capital and why the investment opportunities are so compelling.
JPMorgan’s Lake Exits, Setting Up New Race to Succeed Dimon
JPMorgan Chase & Co. named Troy Rohrbaugh and Doug Petno co-presidents as the abrupt departure of consumer banking chief Marianne Lake marked another twist in the race to succeed Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon.
Core PCE Inflation at 3.4% in May, Highest Level Since 2023
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.4% year-over-year in May. This marks the highest level since October 2023 and marks a pickup from April's 3.3% reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.3%.
Two Measures of Inflation: May 2026
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.9%.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.2% in May
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.
Durable Goods Orders Sink 4.5% in May, Less Than Expected
New orders for manufactured durable goods sank 4.5% in May to $332.05B, slightly less than the projected 5.0% monthly decline.
GDP Per Capita: Q1 2026 Third Estimate
The third estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 2.09%, an acceleration from 0.48% for the Q4 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.91%, a pickup from 0.18% for the Q4 headline number.
An Inside Look at the Q1 2026 GDP Third Estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2026 GDP third estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
Will Greater Monetary Policy Uncertainty Lead to Tighter Financial Conditions?
Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting as chair mattered less for the rate decision than for what he revealed about how the Fed intends to operate. Warsh signaled a shift toward less guidance and more flexibility.
New Home Sales Drop 7% in May
New home sales fell more than expected in May while the median price rose for a second straight month.
3 AI Governance Failures in Financial Advisory: What the File Needs to Show
Advisors have largely made up their minds about AI. What they have not settled is governance. AI adoption ran ahead of policy, the way it usually does, and the gap between the two is where the trouble starts.
Tech Stocks Lead Bounce After $1.3 Trillion Rout on Nasdaq 100
US technology stocks rebounded, lifting key indexes, after the latest flareup of concerns about the scale of the artificial-intelligence-fueled rally wiped nearly $1.3 trillion from the market capitalization of Nasdaq 100 companies over the first two days of the week.
Thornburg Expands ETF Suite With New Premium Income Builder Fund
THOR builds upon the success of the firm’s Thornburg Investment Income Builder Strategy, bringing that same income generation expertise into a flexible, actively managed ETF.
SpaceX’s Quickfire Investment-Grade Rating Brings Out Skeptics
SpaceX is seeking to raise between $20 billion and $25 billion from a debut bond offering on Tuesday, after attracting about $30 billion of investor orders even before the sales process had formally begun, according to people with knowledge of the matter. At that size, the deal would rank among the biggest of the year, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.
Benchmarks Are Broken: Why Antiquated Methodologies Fail Fixed Income
While the market-cap methodology has been the guiding principle for equity index creators, it’s increasingly viewed as a structural error in the world of fixed income. Today, TMX VettaFi is helping to spearhead a growing movement of index innovators who are inclined to challenge the fixed income status quo.
Fed Signals Keep Rate Risks in Focus
U.S. equities posted a modest advance during the holiday-shortened trading week despite a Wednesday sell-off following a more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve meeting under its new chair, Kevin Warsh.
U.S. Debt, Interest Rates, and the Opportunity in High-Quality Bonds
The rising debt burden of the U.S. government is becoming an increasingly serious economic concern. While it may not be an immediate crisis, it has the characteristics of a slow-moving domestic pandemic.
Beyond AI: Where Investors Can Still Find Dividend Growth in 2026
The corporate world is awash in capex. Leaders in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into tech projects, and uncertainty surrounds their profitability. For now, the market rewards this use of cash, but it’s not without pitfalls. Share buybacks, for instance, are seen as a net loser, while the S&P 500® dividend yield has sunk toward all-time lows near 1%.
When Flows Meet a Hawkish Fed
Here’s the setup most investors are underrating right now. Over the next two weeks, the tape will trade on plumbing rather than fundamentals. We just cleared the largest options expiration in history. Quarter-end pension selling comes next, and then July 1 reopens the passive-money firehose into a market that already routes forty cents of every S&P 500 dollar into ten stocks.
Crypto Critic Nouriel Roubini Finds a Use for the Blockchain
Nouriel Roubini, the economist known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis and later for his sharp criticism of crypto, is putting one of his investment products on the blockchain.
SpaceX Launches Starfall Mission for In-Space Manufacturing
SpaceX launched a demonstration mission Tuesday to send a reusable capsule into space and then recover it, part of a new program that may allow the Elon Musk-led company to tap into the emerging market of in-space manufacturing.
US to Award $17.5 Billion in Loans for Large Nuclear Reactors
The Trump administration is providing $17.5 billion to help finance equipment orders for large-nuclear reactors being built by Westinghouse Electric Co., according to people familiar with the matter.
Kevin Warsh Could Shake Up the Fed
Kevin Warsh, the new chairman of the FOMC, has long been critical of forward guidance, which is the Fed’s practice of explicitly signaling the future path of interest rates (e.g., “rates will stay low for an extended period” or publishing a projected path for policy rates). His concern is that the guidance could give the impression that policymakers might have a high degree of confidence about the future path of the economy and rates.
How a US-Iran Deal Could Influence the Economy and Financial Markets
The US-Iran conflict – and its impact on oil prices – has dominated headlines over the past three months. Higher oil prices have pushed inflation to a three‑year high, reshaping the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.
Physical AI & Global Reshoring Beyond the Humanoid Hype
Humanoid robots grab headlines, but they are just a fraction of the physical AI ecosystem. Autonomous robots, drones, cobots, and eVTOLs are rapidly scaling across industrial and defense sectors.
A Quarter Century of Data Says the Airline Opportunity Could Just Be Getting Started
On Monday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally flows.
Meet the New Boss. Different from the Old Boss.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Why the Bond King is Betting on Hikes, Hype & Global Rotation
Discover why DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach is urging a structural defensive rotation into emerging markets and international assets.
World Markets Watchlist: June 22, 2026
Seven of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 22, 2026.
Space ETFs: How SpaceX Is Reshaping the Theme
The emergence of leveraged ETFs tied to Space Exploration Technologies (more familiarly known as SpaceX) points to strong investor demand for concentrated exposure.
Rethinking the Default: Are Secondary Funds Still the Right Choice?
For much of the past decade, secondary funds served as the default entry point into private equity for a number of wealth managers, registered investment advisors, and institutional allocators. These investment vehicles allowed investors to acquire exposure to a private equity fund by purchasing the interest of one of its existing primary investors.
Are Backyard Data Centers an Answer to AI's Biggest Problem?
Data center developers are struggling to connect to the power grid and, not unrelatedly, connect with people. Perhaps half the data center projects due to start operating this year won’t arrive on time, according to Currence, an artificial intelligence analytics firm.
Federal Reserve Press Conference: Lots to Unpack, but Inflation Is Not a Choice
There is a great deal to unpack from this week’s press conference by the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh. Most striking is his markedly different approach to Fed communications. This was evident not only in the statement accompanying the federal funds rate decision, but also in the abandonment of forward guidance and his reluctance to provide insight into the committee’s internal deliberations.
Three Ways to Offset Income From a Roth Conversion
Roth conversions provide tax-free retirement income to hedge against future tax hikes, but they trigger an immediate tax bill. Fortunately, strategic planning can help minimize this upfront cost.
U.S.-Australia Agreement Underscores Importance of Rare Earths
Exposure to critical minerals, specifically rare earths, provides an opportunity for investors to capitalize on growth and diversify their portfolios simultaneously. However, there are also geopolitical implications that investors should know about as well. In particular, more nations are reducing their reliance on China.
Glass and Light: The Infrastructure Layer of the Quantum Market Is Missing
Co-packaged optics, the technology of integrating lasers and optical components directly into network switches rather than using pluggable modules, is becoming the standard architecture for large-scale GPU clusters, and Nvidia needed to lock in supply for the buildout it is planning.
EM Debt—What Reserve Managers Should Keep in Mind
Reserve managers' decisions on EM debt go beyond investment potential—they must also weigh considerations such as governance, resources and liquidity.
Are We All Active Investors Now?
Markets are always changing — and sometimes the rules of finance do, too. I believe markets are efficient, which means my investment portfolio is pretty much all index funds. My enthusiasm for indexing is based on evidence from the Before Times, when the question of a corporation’s index-worthiness was straightforward.
SpaceX-Tesla Inc. Is Inching Closer. Watch Out, Nvidia?
For Elon Musk, the public market debut of SpaceX could hardly have gone better. It priced at the dictated $135 per share and has since jumped by almost half, adding more than $870 billion in just three trading sessions to an already huge market capitalization.
SpaceX Stole the Show, but These Market-Moving Events Could Drive Stocks Next
It’s a busy finish to the first half on the corporate event calendar. The bulls have the lead, but the bears have had their moments of glory so far this year. A handful of key AGMs, conferences, and earnings events will keep investors on their toes amid a colorful macro backdrop.
Embracing Sustainability May Benefit Business
Green life, sustainable mutual funds, buying local, the “buy nothing” movement, plastic-free living, eco-fashion, electric vehicles. You’ve seen all the headlines about reducing your impact on the planet, but you may be wondering how you can best implement a greener workplace in a way that considers the needs of your business, employees and clients or customers.
Why We’re Staying at the Tech Party…and What Would Make Us Leave
The questions in our inbox have gotten louder lately. Are we reliving 1999? Has the tech rally reached the dangerous ‘Euphoria’ bubble stage we first discussed in our 2026 Outlook? And is the recent surge in initial public offerings (IPOs)— led by SpaceX on Friday— diluting existing holders just as valuations were already drawing scrutiny?
Private Markets in Retirement Plans: Unlocking Opportunities
In August 2025, the US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening the investments available in defined contribution plans (DC plans). On March 30, 2026, the US Department of Labor issued proposed guidance regarding a plan fiduciary’s selection of investments, including private market and other alternative investments, in 401(k) plans.
Zillow Home Value Index: First Decline in Nine Months
Home values fell for the first time in nine months in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. Additionally, after adjusting for inflation, real home values dropped even more sharply, remaining at their lowest level in over five years.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales
Nominal retail sales were up 0.88% month-over-month and up 6.88% year-over-year in May. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.41% month-over-month and up 2.60% year-over-year.
Retail Sales: Consumer Spending Up for Fourth Straight Month
According to the Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report, consumer spending climbed for the fourth straight month in May. Headline sales rose 0.9%, almost double the projected 0.5% growth and marking an acceleration from April's 0.4% rise.
Pending Home Sales Jump to 6-Month High
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index jumped 3.8% in May to 76.8, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and highest level in six months.
SpaceX Extends Gains Into Fourth Day as Post-IPO Rally Hits 58%
SpaceX gained for a fourth straight day, cementing the company’s place among the world’s most valuable stocks after it surpassed Amazon.com Inc.
The Sandbox Problem
The instinct when deploying any new technology is to start small. Run a pilot. Test with a subset of data, a single team, or a simplified version of the real workflow. That instinct is sensible — but with AI agents, it carries different risks than those that exist with traditional software.
Welcome, Chair Warsh
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week in what will be Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair of the Federal Reserve. President Trump has been vocal about wanting to see lower yields and general consensus is that Warsh was his pick due to Warsh’s general lean towards lower rates.
The Rise of the American State-Owned Enterprise
The slippery slope never fails. Go back to the 1979 Chrysler bailout and we can find the roots of the US government’s current predilection for getting involved in stocks and bonds.
Alternative Allocations: The Convergence of Public and Private Equity
On June 12, SpaceX went public with a US$2 trillion valuation—the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, by far. It has been the most anticipated IPO in more than two decades and likely ushers in a series of high-profile IPOs in the coming months, including for OpenAI and Anthropic.
How Large Is Private Credit’s Total Addressable Market, Really?
One of the most debated topics in private credit is the size of the investment opportunity – or, in industry parlance, the total addressable market (TAM). But the way TAM is typically framed can be misleading.
Markets Rally as Investors Weigh Inflation, the Fed and SpaceX IPO
Markets returned to positive territory for the week, with the turning point occurring Thursday after the announcement of a potential deal with Iran that would extend the ceasefire while reopening the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since February 27.
Navigating the Impending Advisor Retirement Wave
A massive advisor retirement wave is reshaping wealth management. Discover how $2.5 trillion in assets may fuel industry transformation.
Housing Starts Sink to 6-Year Low
Housing starts sank 15.4% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million, the lowest level in six years. The latest reading was significantly lower than the projected 1.430 million.
Marvell Needs Lots of Growth to Achieve Huang’s $1 Trillion Call
Jensen Huang may see Marvell Technology Inc. as the stock market’s “next trillion-dollar company,” but it’s going to take a lot of growth for the chipmaker to even sniff that lofty level.
The Proposed Rules for Kalshi and Polymarket Are Backward
What prediction markets add is something equities never offered: a way for thousands of people to sell small bits of information — a logistics clerk’s observation, a local journalist’s hunch — that are individually worthless and collectively a forecast.
The Hormuz Peace Dividend Goes to Stocks, Not Bonds
Financial markets generally displayed exuberance Monday after the US and Iran agreed to an interim peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell to the lowest since early March and the S&P 500 Index surged, leaving it just a few points below its all-time high reached at the start of the month.
SpaceX Set to Overtake Amazon in Value as It Soars for Third Day
SpaceX shares jumped on Tuesday, putting the firm on track to overtake Amazon.com Inc. as the fifth largest publicly traded company in the world just days after its blockbuster debut.
Tariff Endgame Taking Shape
Tariff rates will vary, but their persistence is certain.
Warsh’s First FOMC Meeting Will Put Policy and Fed Independence in Focus
New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will preside over his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16-17, stepping in at a complex moment with inflation at a three-year high as oil prices remain elevated, labor market risks easing with job growth averaging ~140,000 year to date versus only 10,000 last year, and hawkish voices on the Fed gaining traction.
Falling Oil Prices Reinforce Bullish Outlook
As we go to press, fighting in the Mideast has escalated, sending crude higher, but stocks, in early Monday trade, have shown remarkable stability following Friday’s deep selloff.
Introducing the IPO Class of 2026
The U.S. initial public offering (IPO) market appears to be entering one of its most consequential periods in years. After a long drought following the 2021 issuance boom, a healthier macro backdrop, improved risk appetite, and a long queue of mature private companies have reopened the new-issue window.
A Midyear Retirement Readiness Check
For many investors, retirement planning becomes most tangible at the start and end of the year. Goals are set in January, then revisited during year-end tax and financial planning discussions. But the middle of the year offers an equally valuable opportunity: a chance to evaluate progress, reassess assumptions, and make adjustments before small issues become larger challenges.
Gold Looks Oversold. Is This the Contrarian Moment Investors Have Been Waiting For?
Gold has always had a way of testing investors’ expectations. Just when the headlines appear most supportive—inflation is rising, geopolitical risk is escalating and confidence in fiat currency is being questioned—gold can suddenly move in the opposite direction.
Not All Diversification Strategies Are Equal
Advisors searching for diversification from a concentrated S&P 500 Index often reach for equal-weight strategies. However, a new report argues that all equal-weight approaches are not interchangeable.
BCSM: Where Small-Cap Upside Meets Large-Cap Stability in an Active ETF
Join Baron Capital for a product due diligence session covering Baron SMID Cap ETFTM (BCSM).
The IPO Boom: Where Will the Money Come From?
The IPO market is bubbling with excitement. The headlines surrounding the IPOs are hyperbolic, banker fees are enormous, and social media is teeming with bullish sentiment on how high the new shares may trade after going public. While that is all great for clickbait, nobody is asking the most important question. Where will the money come from?
SpaceX Shares Jump in Second Day of Trading After Record IPO
SpaceX shares jumped in their second day of trading, adding to gains following a blockbuster debut that instantly vaulted it into the ranks of the world’s most valuable public companies.
Raise Social Security Taxes — and Cut Benefits, Too
There are two processes that we cannot escape: aging and math. This applies not only to human beings but also to large government social-insurance programs.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Affordability Challenges Continue
Builder confidence edged lower in June as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from May to 35 this month, marking the 26th consecutive negative reading.
Buyable Pullbacks. Be Prepared.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Inflation Sends Mixed Signals: Manageable for the Federal Reserve, Painful for Consumers
This week’s inflation data highlights a growing disconnect between how markets interpret inflation and how consumers experience it. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report delivered a nuanced message: While headline inflation accelerated, core inflation remained relatively contained, an outcome that provides some comfort to policymakers.
The K-Shaped Economy: Why The Middle Class Moved Up.
The K-shaped economy has become shorthand for a tidy story. The rich pull away while everyone else falls behind. It fits the mood, and it makes for a sharp headline. The problem is that it’s mostly wrong.
Schwab Market Perspective: Mid-Year Outlook
During this time of year, we like to take stock of what happened in the first half of the year and compare it with the expectations we had at the beginning of the year when we published our full-year outlooks.
Navigating the New Era of Growth With An Active Mandate
Discover how Capital Group’s active CGGR ETF navigates this mega-cap divergence to uncover secular growth beyond tech.
The G-Shaped Economy
Despite everything we have seen in the economic data, which can be confusing, the US consumer has refused to crack. My friend Dr. Ed Yardeni, whom I have known since '98, has the most compelling explanation I have heard for why.
SpaceX Prepares for Debut After $75 Billion IPO Breaks Record
SpaceX made history with a $75 billion IPO that instantly turned it into one of the biggest public companies in the world. Now it has to win over the market.
S&P 500 Steady With All Eyes on SpaceX IPO, Iran Peace Hopes
US stocks opened with a small gain on Friday, supported by optimism about pending trading in SpaceX, which made history with the biggest-ever IPO, and the potential for an interim peace deal in the Iran conflict.
What the World Cup Can Tell Us About Finance: Matthew Brooker
There’s a memorial to Paul the octopus at the Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen after the cephalopod seer earned worldwide fame by correctly predicting the outcome of all Germany’s seven games at the 2010 World Cup
SpaceX-Anthropic-OpenAI Is a Cocktail With a Hangover
That’s SpaceX out of the way. Next, investors will have to absorb the artificial-intelligence titans behind the Claude and ChatGPT chatbots, Anthropic PBC and OpenAI.
Is Any Area of the Market “Affordable”?
The word seems to be spreading that small- and micro-cap stocks have so far been enjoying a stellar 2026. What seems less well known is that the current cycle of market leadership for the two asset classes stretches back to 2025 and has been in place for 14 months.
Split Decisions: What Stock Splits Reveal About Corporations in H1 2026
Dispersion continues to be the definitive story of 2026. As we progress through June and approach the conclusion of the first half of the year, the equity landscape remains distinctly bifurcated. Pockets of deep structural growth stand in contrast to areas grappling with macro headwinds.
AI’s Expansion Runs on Smaller Companies
In addition to a greater range of chips supporting AI development, several factors could cause the current cycle to last longer than expected.