Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
What are the most common scenarios that give rise to private foundations converting to DAFs (or making a thoughtful decision not to convert), while preserving the original donor’s intent and satisfying the administrative concerns of surviving family members?
Vietnam is a frontier market star.
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Here are three lessons about the cognitive biases advisors need to be aware of as the trusted protectors of their clients’ financial futures.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
Social Security applies a substantially higher penalty on people subject to GPO for claiming widow(er) and spousal benefits prior to normal retirement age.
This bear market is punishing everyone and everything.
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
For years, investors valued Facebook’s parent company as if its growth would never falter. Now that it has, fund managers who buy cheap, out-of-favor stocks are finally getting a chance to own shares of Meta Platforms Inc.
A major “capitulation event” in which Bitcoin miners funnel thousands of tokens to exchanges could signal an approaching bottom for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, if history is any guide.
Pipe down for a second Elon, the hottest things in the auto industry — the most electric electrics — now come from Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp.
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
In a new piece, GMO’s Asset Allocation Team notes that even with the battering of growth stocks in 2022 there is still ample opportunity to benefit from betting on cheap value stocks versus expensive growth names.
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
While everyone’s financial journey is different, there are actionable steps advisors can take to empower their female clients’ financial futures and health.
Why would I work to increase the profile of an active fund manager? My reasons reflect the increasing pressure on advisors to differentiate themselves and demonstrate value.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
The terminology ‘Frontier Markets’ inspires images of exotic geographies, colourful politics and investor adventurism.
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
Here’s how to position yourself for a lifetime of relationships by creating better touchpoints with a client’s family.
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
US builders completed more apartments in large multi-unit buildings than ever before.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
The world needs a stronger World Trade Organization.
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
Who would want to be tasked with investing their own and other people’s money in companies run by weirdos and jerks? But that turns out to be one of the most important skill sets shared by successful venture capitalists.
US credit-card rates have soared past 20%, mortgage costs have climbed to the highest since 2008 and companies are having a harder time borrowing money.
On the edges of US Sun Belt suburbia, the wait lists for new houses are gone. And homebuilders are doing something they haven’t done in years: slashing prices.
Electric-vehicle prices are going up at a dizzying pace these days.
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
The one speed bump advisors keep tripping over is that, well, people are funny about their money.
In 2003, at age 19, Elizabeth Holmes founded Theranos, and it became a $10 billion company by 2014. But it was a fraud. Aspects of target date funds mirror the Holmes story.
For all the talk of bear markets and a possible recession, investors continue to pile into American equities.
Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina opens with one of the most famous lines in world literature: “All happy families are alike, but every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
It’s too soon to call an end to America’s worst bond-market collapse in at least half a century.
The S&P 500 officially fell into bear market territory during the month of May, although a late month bounce allowed it to finish the month only slightly down from April. It is down about 2.5% thus far in June. The tone of the market has changed, and it doesn’t appear to be calming down anytime soon.
According to my guest today, Greg Taylor, when looking at the performance of the large-cap tech stocks, it was inevitable that the broader market would touch bear market levels. He is here to discuss the market environment, not just in equities, but across asset classes including gold and cryptocurrencies.
The better ARK performed, the more money flowed into its main ETF, ARKK. It used this money to buy more sci-fi ARKK stocks, pushing up the prices of its holdings. This created a vicious cycle that has now reversed.
Late last year, investors who were clinging to the hope that inflation might be temporary took solace in the fact that real Treasury yields remained negative, a sign that bond investors might not be that worried about inflation.
After months of hand-wringing, U.S. indexes are now in bear-market territory across the board, down 20% from their most recent highs.
What are growth-oriented firms doing and how are they thinking differently about technology?
A vague tweet by a founder of Three Arrows Capital, an influential hedge fund that has been liquidating crypto holdings as prices plummeted, is stirring fresh apprehension in an already shaken industry.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -0.27% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of 0.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.52% MoM.
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -1.2 was an increase of 10.4 from the previous month's -11.6. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 3.0.
In our new piece from the Franklin Templeton Institute, we examine the challenge of feeding a growing global population in the midst of climate change, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty.
For as long as the market allows, brokers, lenders, and investors are cashing in on the real estate boom in America’s prime vacation spots.
Applying volatility benchmarks correctly is the key to effective portfolio management.
Several avenues for diversifying cryptocurrency portfolios exist. Investors should weigh the costs and benefits of each of the following three methods.
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
There’s a fight brewing in the lithium market, after a controversial forecast from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts set off a backlash among some of the industry’s most prominent experts.
The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
As proxy season comes to a close, investors and advisors have grappled with company stewardship on a wide variety of issues. But what’s the best way to get a company to listen? Is divestment the way to go? Or must you engage with a company? And how do investors in ETFs and mutual funds make sure their voices are heard at the asset managers they invest with?
Engine No. 1 focuses on engaging with companies constructively to make sure they are taking the costs they impose on society and other stakeholders into account. It operates on the belief that climate and social concerns are economic issues and companies that fail to address them will underperform for the long term.
With the Q1 GDP Second Estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down from 216.4% the previous quarter.
In our third of three posts on small-cap valuations, let’s examine how focusing on dividend payers amid a volatile market backdrop has provided excess returns, with even lower valuations.
Madonna was right. That iPhone on which you may be reading this article is far less important to society than the materials – like steel and plastic – that were used to build it.
Energy has been on quite a run.
US consumer prices surged to a 40-year high, defying expectations that gains would start to moderate after the Federal Reserve began tightening.
May’s red-hot inflation hardened expectations the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates in half-point steps through September, with talk of an even larger move creeping into the conversation.
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
With National 529 Day last month and graduation season underway, the cost of education is at the top of many people’s minds.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.58%, up from 8.26% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.02%, down from 6.16% the previous month.
Shanghai, the Chinese commercial hub with 26 million residents, ended its two-month citywide pandemic lockdown last week, a sign that the world’s second largest economy may be ready to return to business-as-usual.
Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
This is one of my favorite charts, and one that helped get us onto the right side of the global policy pivot that has rippled across markets this year.
If you’re itching for a dream vacation this summer after two years of travel restrictions, then you might end up paying more to rent a car than you spend on a plane ticket.
Using this five-question framework will go a long way to help you be effective as you work with foreign-born families in the U.S.
Thoughts on recent market volatility and implications for investors from Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover.
We have a very precise methodology for dissecting the world’s equity markets.
New research quantifies the implicit cost that investors incur when index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500, are rebalanced. Those costs may be avoidable by adopting trading strategies that introduce the possibility of tracking error.
The Social Security benefit formula is short-changing a select group of retirees, and the losses are apt to exceed $25,000 over a lifetime. There is no effort to fix the flaw, so the concern is on-going.
Small Cap
Don't Fight the Trend
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
Common Scenarios for Transitioning a Private Foundation to a Donor Advised Fund
What are the most common scenarios that give rise to private foundations converting to DAFs (or making a thoughtful decision not to convert), while preserving the original donor’s intent and satisfying the administrative concerns of surviving family members?
Good Morning, Vietnam
Vietnam is a frontier market star.
3 Charts Showing Optimism For The Global Shipping Industry
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
Time to Jump Aboard the Value Train
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
Consumer Confidence Down Again in June
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Mortgage Lenders Turn ‘Desperate’ as Soaring Rates Roil Industry
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Up 20% YoY
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Three Lessons About Cognitive Biases
Here are three lessons about the cognitive biases advisors need to be aware of as the trusted protectors of their clients’ financial futures.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.6% in April
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
A $2 Trillion Free-Fall Rattles Crypto to the Core
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
Re-discovering the Market’s Sweet Spot
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
An Update on the Social Security Problem with GPO Benefits
Social Security applies a substantially higher penalty on people subject to GPO for claiming widow(er) and spousal benefits prior to normal retirement age.
I Haven't Seen Bargains This Good in 20 Years
This bear market is punishing everyone and everything.
Pending Home Sales Edged Up in May
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
Meta Plunge Lures Value Buyers as Growth Funds Flee
For years, investors valued Facebook’s parent company as if its growth would never falter. Now that it has, fund managers who buy cheap, out-of-favor stocks are finally getting a chance to own shares of Meta Platforms Inc.
Miner Capitulation Means Bitcoin Bottom Is Near
A major “capitulation event” in which Bitcoin miners funnel thousands of tokens to exchanges could signal an approaching bottom for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, if history is any guide.
Sorry Elon Musk. Hyundai Is Quietly Dominating the EV Race
Pipe down for a second Elon, the hottest things in the auto industry — the most electric electrics — now come from Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp.
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Taking Stock: Q3 2022 Equity Market Outlook
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies?
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
A Realistic Framing of the Progress in Artificial Intelligence
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
Time To Jump Aboard The Value Train
In a new piece, GMO’s Asset Allocation Team notes that even with the battering of growth stocks in 2022 there is still ample opportunity to benefit from betting on cheap value stocks versus expensive growth names.
Stocks Sniffing A Bear Market Rally
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
NFIB Signals A Recession Is Coming…Again
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
Don’t Cry for the Most Wealthy
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
The Future of Female Financial Empowerment is Today
While everyone’s financial journey is different, there are actionable steps advisors can take to empower their female clients’ financial futures and health.
Why I Consulted with an Active Fund Manager
Why would I work to increase the profile of an active fund manager? My reasons reflect the increasing pressure on advisors to differentiate themselves and demonstrate value.
Recession Calls Grow; Mnuchin on Inflation Threat: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
Inflation Ate Your Free Lunch, But You’re Still Better Off
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
An Established Case and Emerging Trends for Frontier Markets Equity Investing
The terminology ‘Frontier Markets’ inspires images of exotic geographies, colourful politics and investor adventurism.
Respect the Bear
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
Five Touchpoints to Build Family Relationships
Here’s how to position yourself for a lifetime of relationships by creating better touchpoints with a client’s family.
Existing-Home Sales: Down 3.4% in May
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
Big, Boxy Apartment Buildings Are Multiplying Faster Than Ever
US builders completed more apartments in large multi-unit buildings than ever before.
Recession Warnings Multiply; Exxon Signs Gas Deal: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
Governance For Global Trade
The world needs a stronger World Trade Organization.
“Economic Hurricane” – Hyperbole Or Real Possibility?
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
How Venture Capital Thrives by Betting on Weirdness
Who would want to be tasked with investing their own and other people’s money in companies run by weirdos and jerks? But that turns out to be one of the most important skill sets shared by successful venture capitalists.
Credit Cards at 20%, Mortgages Near 6%: The Fed's Rate Hikes Are Already Having an Impact
US credit-card rates have soared past 20%, mortgage costs have climbed to the highest since 2008 and companies are having a harder time borrowing money.
Builders Are Slashing Prices to Sell Homes in Fast-Cooling US Markets
On the edges of US Sun Belt suburbia, the wait lists for new houses are gone. And homebuilders are doing something they haven’t done in years: slashing prices.
Inflation Turns EVs Into Luxury Items, Threatening Broader Electric Shift
Electric-vehicle prices are going up at a dizzying pace these days.
Gold Has Been One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022 (So Far)
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
CB LEI: Falls Again in May
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
Dr. Cole Cash and the Next Generation
The one speed bump advisors keep tripping over is that, well, people are funny about their money.
Elizabeth Holmes’ Lesson for Target-Date Funds
In 2003, at age 19, Elizabeth Holmes founded Theranos, and it became a $10 billion company by 2014. But it was a fraud. Aspects of target date funds mirror the Holmes story.
For All Their Worries, Investors Are Piling Into US Stocks
For all the talk of bear markets and a possible recession, investors continue to pile into American equities.
Everything You Wanted To Know About Bear Markets
Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina opens with one of the most famous lines in world literature: “All happy families are alike, but every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”
Crypto Market Outlook: Risk-Off
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
Bond Market Losses Just Beginning as Fed Sets Path to 4% Yields
It’s too soon to call an end to America’s worst bond-market collapse in at least half a century.
The Summer of Bear Markets
The S&P 500 officially fell into bear market territory during the month of May, although a late month bounce allowed it to finish the month only slightly down from April. It is down about 2.5% thus far in June. The tone of the market has changed, and it doesn’t appear to be calming down anytime soon.
According to my guest today, Greg Taylor, when looking at the performance of the large-cap tech stocks, it was inevitable that the broader market would touch bear market levels. He is here to discuss the market environment, not just in equities, but across asset classes including gold and cryptocurrencies.
ARKK Stocks Sunk
The better ARK performed, the more money flowed into its main ETF, ARKK. It used this money to buy more sci-fi ARKK stocks, pushing up the prices of its holdings. This created a vicious cycle that has now reversed.
How Inflation Fuels Bargain Hunting
Late last year, investors who were clinging to the hope that inflation might be temporary took solace in the fact that real Treasury yields remained negative, a sign that bond investors might not be that worried about inflation.
June Swoon: U.S. Stocks Slip Into Bear-market Territory As Inflation Concerns Rattle Investors
After months of hand-wringing, U.S. indexes are now in bear-market territory across the board, down 20% from their most recent highs.
How Top Firms Use Technology to Leverage Growth
What are growth-oriented firms doing and how are they thinking differently about technology?
Crypto Hedge Fund’s Ominous Tweet Is Latest Shock to Market
A vague tweet by a founder of Three Arrows Capital, an influential hedge fund that has been liquidating crypto holdings as prices plummeted, is stirring fresh apprehension in an already shaken industry.
Retail Sales Down 0.3% in May, Worse Than Forecast
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -0.27% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of 0.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.52% MoM.
Empire State Mfg Survey: Activity Levels Off
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -1.2 was an increase of 10.4 from the previous month's -11.6. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 3.0.
The Future of Food is Technology
In our new piece from the Franklin Templeton Institute, we examine the challenge of feeding a growing global population in the midst of climate change, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty.
Americans Are Building Vacation-Home Empires With Easy-Money Loans
For as long as the market allows, brokers, lenders, and investors are cashing in on the real estate boom in America’s prime vacation spots.
Utilizing Volatility Benchmarks In Building Long-short Stock Pairs
Applying volatility benchmarks correctly is the key to effective portfolio management.
How to Build a Diversified Crypto Allocation
Several avenues for diversifying cryptocurrency portfolios exist. Investors should weigh the costs and benefits of each of the following three methods.
Inflation Risk: Persistent or Transitory is the Wrong Question
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
The Fed Has No Choice But to Let This Tantrum Rip
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
Red-Hot Lithium Boom Pits Wall Street Against the Wonks
There’s a fight brewing in the lithium market, after a controversial forecast from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts set off a backlash among some of the industry’s most prominent experts.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Mostly Unchanged in May, Inventory, Inflation, Problematic
The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
Engine No. 1 and Its Compelling Approach to ESG Investing
As proxy season comes to a close, investors and advisors have grappled with company stewardship on a wide variety of issues. But what’s the best way to get a company to listen? Is divestment the way to go? Or must you engage with a company? And how do investors in ETFs and mutual funds make sure their voices are heard at the asset managers they invest with?
Engine No. 1 focuses on engaging with companies constructively to make sure they are taking the costs they impose on society and other stakeholders into account. It operates on the belief that climate and social concerns are economic issues and companies that fail to address them will underperform for the long term.
Market Cap to GDP: May Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the Q1 GDP Second Estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down from 216.4% the previous quarter.
Mid-Cap and Small-Cap Dividends Shine amid Volatility
In our third of three posts on small-cap valuations, let’s examine how focusing on dividend payers amid a volatile market backdrop has provided excess returns, with even lower valuations.
We’re Living in a Material World
Madonna was right. That iPhone on which you may be reading this article is far less important to society than the materials – like steel and plastic – that were used to build it.
I’m Buying Another Dirt-Cheap Energy Stock
Energy has been on quite a run.
‘Straightforward Bad’: Stock Investors React to Inflation Report
US consumer prices surged to a 40-year high, defying expectations that gains would start to moderate after the Federal Reserve began tightening.
Fed Seen Extending Steep Rate-Hike Path to Cool Heated Inflation
May’s red-hot inflation hardened expectations the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates in half-point steps through September, with talk of an even larger move creeping into the conversation.
Are We Headed for Recession? Gold and Bitcoin Could Offer Some Cover
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
A Trillion Here, a Trillion There…
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
Saving For College: Start Small, But Start Now
With National 529 Day last month and graduation season underway, the cost of education is at the top of many people’s minds.
Consumer Price Index: May Headline at 8.58%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.58%, up from 8.26% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.02%, down from 6.16% the previous month.
Global Luxury Sales Expected To Recover As Shanghai Ends Lockdown
Shanghai, the Chinese commercial hub with 26 million residents, ended its two-month citywide pandemic lockdown last week, a sign that the world’s second largest economy may be ready to return to business-as-usual.
Bull Market Rhymes
Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.
Gundlach: Oil Could Hit $150 This Summer
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
Clues From Small Central Banks
This is one of my favorite charts, and one that helped get us onto the right side of the global policy pivot that has rippled across markets this year.
The Rental Car Apocalypse Has a Terrible Sequel
If you’re itching for a dream vacation this summer after two years of travel restrictions, then you might end up paying more to rent a car than you spend on a plane ticket.
A Framework for Working with Foreign-Born Families in the U.S.
Using this five-question framework will go a long way to help you be effective as you work with foreign-born families in the U.S.
Quick Thoughts: Navigating Uncertainty In A Rapidly Changing World
Thoughts on recent market volatility and implications for investors from Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover.
Tour of the Global Equity Markets
We have a very precise methodology for dissecting the world’s equity markets.
The Problems with Market-Cap Weighted Index Funds
New research quantifies the implicit cost that investors incur when index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500, are rebalanced. Those costs may be avoidable by adopting trading strategies that introduce the possibility of tracking error.
Why Some Retirees are Losing Social Security Benefits
The Social Security benefit formula is short-changing a select group of retirees, and the losses are apt to exceed $25,000 over a lifetime. There is no effort to fix the flaw, so the concern is on-going.