US stocks continued their slog through the end of summer, but the S&P 500 Index just notched a resiliency milestone not seen in five years.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through August. The latest debt level fell for the first time since April to $689.19 billion. Margin debt is down 2.9% month-over-month (MoM) and up 0.2% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is down 3.3% MoM and down 3.3% YoY.
The S&P 500 fell sharply on Friday by 1.2%, leading to the index's second consecutive weekly loss. The index is currently up 16.37% year to date and is 7.22% below its record close from January 3, 2022.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 31, 2023 close.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $14,122 for an annualized real return of 6.92%.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of August 31st, it was 4.09%.
With the Q2 GDP second estimate and the August close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 168.5%, up from 162.5% the previous quarter.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 24.0 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 30.4.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.54, down from 1.56 in July.
Quick take: At the end of August, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 131% above its long-term trend, down from July.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
Stocks are up 18.7% year-to-date, which is good news for portfolios and 401(k)s, but did you know that most of the heavy lifting has been done by a very small number of S&P 500 stocks?
Valid until the market close on September 30, 2023
The S&P 500 closed August with a monthly loss of 1.71%, after a gain of 3.22% in July. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)— is signaling "cash", up from last month's single "cash" signal.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® pulled back in August after two months of improvement. The index dropped to 106.1 from July's downwardly revised reading of 114.0. This month's reading was worse than expected, falling far below the 116.0 forecast.
Surprised that the S&P 500 swung into the green Friday? Don’t worry. Just wait. It’ll fall again after the next opening bell.
Look closely at the contours of Tuesday’s tumble in the S&P 500 and fingerprints of a new market force come into focus.
Is unlimited paid time off good for a company's stock price? Most investors think so, according to the latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
It could take just a 1% move in the S&P 500 — up or down — every day for a week for the rally in US stocks to come under significant pressure.
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for July is 3.0%, down 0.2% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.3%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.2% and Core CPI is 4.7%.
Investors often conclude that they would have performed better by simply investing in the S&P 500 index rather than a well-diversified portfolio.
Bitcoin trading volume tumbled last month amid waning volatility and little notable price swings in a market that speculators traditionally gravitate to for its turbulence.
While US stocks may pull back in coming weeks amid concern over Federal Reserve policy, the S&P 500 will reassert itself around September before climbing to an all-time high, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk.
There’s a shift in tone happening across Wall Street.
With the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its most disruptive monetary-tightening campaign in a generation, a softening US dollar is poised to boost profit growth for nearly half of the companies in the S&P 500 Index over the next year.
With the S&P 500 up 25% in nine months and sitting at its best level since April 2022, people want to know: is an all-time high next? John Flood, a partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., thinks so.
There's more pain on the way for the S&P 500 as profit warnings and fears of higher interest rates combine to threaten the key US stock indicator, according to the latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
VettaFi’s vice chairman Tom Lydon discussed the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
With over 20 years of live performance, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index’s history enables long-term comparisons to other indices and actively managed funds. The relative performance of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index offers insightful perspectives on the drivers of performance in—and the value added or subtracted by—actively managed U.S. equity funds. Despite sharing a similar pattern of excess returns, very few active funds were able to match the index’s returns over the past two decades.
The artificial intelligence boom is handing a big win to hedge funds angling for an edge.
Some previously steadfast bears are showing signs of giving in after a seven-month advance put the S&P 500 on the edge of a key chart line.
A new exchange-traded fund is making the case that having women at the top of corporations translates into better returns.
Surging bond yields have been rattling investors for a year. Why they’re a problem for people hooked on an asset as volatile as equities can be seen by juxtaposing stocks with some of the safest securities in the world.
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
Emerging-market stocks extended their lead over US shares in the early days of the new year, with the equity benchmark rising to a six-month high against the S&P 500 Index.
Broad-market exposure meets sustainability. The S&P 500 ESG Index is a market-cap-weighted index that is designed to measure the performance of securities meeting sustainability criteria, while maintaining similar overall industry group weights as the S&P 500. Intentionally broad—including over 300 of the original S&P 500 companies—the index seeks to reflect many of the attributes of the S&P 500 itself, while providing an improved sustainability profile.
Recently, Bank of America discussed the “5-Lessons From The Nifty Fifty.”
At a time when virtually all of Wall Street is on guard against a recession, Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group said stocks are about to rally at least 25% in the next year.
“Web1” represents static websites, and “Web2” represents the shift in the delivery of the internet to user-centric, dynamic web offerings and platforms.
Equity investors are not being adequately compensated for the economic, geopolitical and financial risks they are bearing. The equity risk premium is too small.
A yield curve inversion, when rates for two-year US Treasury notes rise above those for 10-year notes, has preceded every recession since the 1960s. The first clear inversion in 15 years happened in July 2022, although there were brief and shallow inversions in August 2019 and April 2022.
Markets may continue to see volatility in 2023 as they navigate between global economic growth and inflation fears, with central banks' decreasing rate hikes and China's reopening.
James McHugh isn’t afraid of a little risk. The trouble this year has been knowing where to find it. Crypto burned him. Meme stocks are stuck in the pits. So McHugh, a 36-year-old who works in Houston’s oil and gas industry, has been getting his fix in a corner of the market retail investors typically overlook — junk debt.
I explore some of the factors driving the superiority of PLIBs, in particular lapsation, mortality experience differences, accessing the equity risk premium, and the marginal role of annuities as part of a retirement strategy.
New research reveals that stock prices revert to a predictable P/E multiple, which is a function of growth and profitability. It also shows why growth stocks, while more profitable than value stocks, earn lower returns.
Let’s look at the powerful feature set an advisory firm could put together from a collection of the higher-rated, low-market-share programs and solutions that I’ve collected from past surveys, many of which you may not even be aware of.
While the crypto horror show rages on, stocks have quietly rallied almost 10% in the last month amid cautious optimism that the worst of the inflation shock is over. But might it be a head-fake?
Mohamed El-Erian sees the rollercoaster ride in financial markets, with Friday’s surprisingly strong US jobs report producing the latest drop, as another lesson for Chairman Jerome Powell and his Federal Reserve colleagues.
We continue to believe that a value-conscious, risk-managed, full-cycle discipline, focused on the combination of valuations and market internals, will be essential in navigating market volatility in the years ahead.
Weaker economic trends will likely form heading into 2023 as the Fed battles inflation, but a (hopefully) mild recession may help set stocks up for a better second half of the year.
While economists have been lowering their employment forecast month over month over month, the U.S. labor market has continued to disappoint those forecasts and has remained relatively strong as well as relatively stable, with jobs growing at an average of 392,000 per month during 2022.
Change is constant, in the economy and everything else. We talk about it often. Yet when we talk about the economy changing, we usually mean the economy’s condition is changing—from expansion to recession, deflationary to inflationary, emerging to developing, etc. That’s different from changes in the economy’s actual structure.
One bad year in the stock market has turned Wall Street strategists into bears after two decades of bullishness.
US employers added more jobs than forecast and wages surged by the most in nearly a year, pointing to enduring inflation pressures that boost chances of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
U.S. equities are sliding as investors sift through the November labor report that showed stronger-than-expected job growth.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
To properly guide their clients, financial advisors must have a good understanding of the long-run behavior of stock and bonds returns.
Better than expected inflationary data and corporate earnings reports helped boost S&P 500 to back-to-back rallies for first time since mid-2021.
Value equities are still priced for significant outperformance, globally.
The ongoing public drama surrounding Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and FTX is still unfolding, and there's been excellent coverage of many aspects of the story. Here's a short note on one piece of the puzzle we think is quite important, but so far has remained somewhat under the radar.
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) has produced incredibly consistent growth since it was spun off in 2001.
Whether foreign nations want or need tightening or easing, they are stuck with the monetary policy that the Fed decides America needs.
The top bosses of US oil and gas companies are speaking less and less about climate and carbon emissions, a signal that the industry’s public focus on ESG over the past couple of years may be fading.
It’s tempting to dismiss the mass layoffs and collapsing stock prices in the tech sector as just another blip in the tech boom-and-bust cycle.
November has given a glimpse of the outperformance that emerging markets can deliver in the post-stimulus world as the maturing phase of Federal Reserve tightening focuses investors’ minds on the opportunities beyond.
Apple Inc. has shelled out more than $550 billion buying back its own shares over the past decade, more than any other US company, and the technology juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down.
Global bonds joined US peers in signaling a recession, with a gauge measuring the worldwide yield curve inverting for the first time in at least two decades.
The question most asked by investors late last year, as Treasury bill yields hovered just above zero was “Where can I go for yield?” followed soon after by “What can I do to protect myself from inflation?”
U.S. stocks are choppy in pre-market trading on the heels of yesterday's drop ahead of tomorrow's comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
As Europe struggles with war, costly energy, record inflation and slowing growth, it’s no surprise that European corporate credit is out of favor.
There are many ways to decompose the bond market to identify the component pieces to infer what the market is pricing in.
A planner who fails to follow their own advice is hardly going to inspire confidence in prospective clients.
Doll’s Deliberations this week summarizes some short-term expectations and some longer-term issues.
The US housing market is in an uneasy state of equilibrium.
There’s a big “open secret” in Silicon Valley that’s spreading, one that has already reached three-fourths of FANG. But the market has yet to recognize its impact on one remaining company.
Following the weaker-than-expected October inflation report, stocks surged on hopes the Fed will “pivot” sooner than later. As we discussed recently, a “policy pivot” is not necessarily bullish but instead suggests more bearish market action will come first.
This article explores the efficacy of PLIBs against a retirement income strategy that does not include an annuity, as well as strategies which allocate to either a SPIA, a DIA, or a GLWB. I used a utility framework for this analysis.
Technology megatrends transform society, and there is a hugely significant fourth wave on the horizon.
Vivek Tanneeru, portfolio manager, sees structural and cyclical tailwinds converging for emerging markets equities.
In one of the most challenging years for markets, 2022 brought persistently high inflation, aggressive central bank tightening and heightened geopolitical risks, leaving investors with few places to hide.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s draft plans to overhaul rules for the stock market would also expand its oversight of bond and options trading.
After losing nearly $300 billion in market value in two months, a growing chorus of Tesla Inc. analysts are saying the share-price decline has gone far enough.
Historically, soaring oil prices have been bad for the US economy because they squeeze US consumers and producers, and often are happening when the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to rein in inflation.
U.S. equities are rising, although no notable directional drivers seem to be in play amid the holiday-shortened week, with the markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and trading in a half day on Friday.
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) sentiment about the future was 33% and at its lowest since 2012.
Tighter Federal Reserve policy is raising households’ interest-rate burden, leading to a rapid decline in excess savings and underscoring the likelihood hawkishness has peaked.
Wall Street’s waning conviction in Coinbase Global Inc. has done little to deter Cathie Wood. Instead, she’s been scooping up shares of the struggling cryptocurrency exchange in the wake of the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX.
Advisors and their clients need to manage pressures they have not seen for 20 years: market volatility, inflation, rising interest rates and potentially higher taxes. With fixed income not holding up as a low-risk part of the portfolio, it is time to look at other strategies to protect client portfolios.
Believe it or not, 2022 is almost over. That means it’s time to start thinking about end-of-year tax planning strategies…
S&P 500
S&P 500 Marks 100 Days Without 1.5% Drop, First Time Since 2018
US stocks continued their slog through the end of summer, but the S&P 500 Index just notched a resiliency milestone not seen in five years.
Margin Debt Down 2.9% in August; First Decline Since April
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through August. The latest debt level fell for the first time since April to $689.19 billion. Margin debt is down 2.9% month-over-month (MoM) and up 0.2% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is down 3.3% MoM and down 3.3% YoY.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Friday Slump Leads to Weekly Loss
The S&P 500 fell sharply on Friday by 1.2%, leading to the index's second consecutive weekly loss. The index is currently up 16.37% year to date and is 7.22% below its record close from January 3, 2022.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 31, 2023 close.
The Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $14,122 for an annualized real return of 6.92%.
Secular Market Trends: A Perspective on Bull and Bear Markets
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of August 31st, it was 4.09%.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: August 2023 Update
With the Q2 GDP second estimate and the August close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 168.5%, up from 162.5% the previous quarter.
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
P/E10 August Update: Is The Stock Market Cheap?
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 24.0 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 30.4.
Q-Ratio Dips Lower in August
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.54, down from 1.56 in July.
Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 131% Above Trend in August
Quick take: At the end of August, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 131% above its long-term trend, down from July.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
Is It Time For Investors To Consider Sector Rotation Amid A Tech-Heavy S&P 500?
Stocks are up 18.7% year-to-date, which is good news for portfolios and 401(k)s, but did you know that most of the heavy lifting has been done by a very small number of S&P 500 stocks?
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes August Down 1.7%
Valid until the market close on September 30, 2023
The S&P 500 closed August with a monthly loss of 1.71%, after a gain of 3.22% in July. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)— is signaling "cash", up from last month's single "cash" signal.
Consumer Confidence Pulls Back in August
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® pulled back in August after two months of improvement. The index dropped to 106.1 from July's downwardly revised reading of 114.0. This month's reading was worse than expected, falling far below the 116.0 forecast.
Traders Have S&P 500 Comebacks Fading at Historic Pace
Surprised that the S&P 500 swung into the green Friday? Don’t worry. Just wait. It’ll fall again after the next opening bell.
Goldman Sachs Blames Zero-Day Options for Fueling S&P 500 Selloff
Look closely at the contours of Tuesday’s tumble in the S&P 500 and fingerprints of a new market force come into focus.
Companies That Offer Unlimited Vacations Will Outperform S&P 500, Investors Say
Is unlimited paid time off good for a company's stock price? Most investors think so, according to the latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
A Week of 1% Moves on the S&P 500 Could Trigger Forced Selling
It could take just a 1% move in the S&P 500 — up or down — every day for a week for the rally in US stocks to come under significant pressure.
Underlying Inflation Gauge Falls for 13th Straight Month
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for July is 3.0%, down 0.2% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.3%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.2% and Core CPI is 4.7%.
The Ups And Downs Of The S&P 500
Investors often conclude that they would have performed better by simply investing in the S&P 500 index rather than a well-diversified portfolio.
Bitcoin Turns Less Volatile Than S&P 500, Tech Stocks and Gold
Bitcoin trading volume tumbled last month amid waning volatility and little notable price swings in a market that speculators traditionally gravitate to for its turbulence.
JPMorgan’s Trading Desk Says Record S&P 500 ‘Feels Inevitable’
While US stocks may pull back in coming weeks amid concern over Federal Reserve policy, the S&P 500 will reassert itself around September before climbing to an all-time high, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk.
Strategists Scramble to Catch Up as S&P 500 Rally Rumbles On
There’s a shift in tone happening across Wall Street.
S&P 500 Profits Get a Lift From the Crack in King Dollar’s Reign
With the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its most disruptive monetary-tightening campaign in a generation, a softening US dollar is poised to boost profit growth for nearly half of the companies in the S&P 500 Index over the next year.
S&P 500 on Track to Hit Record High Before Year-End, Goldman's Flood Says
With the S&P 500 up 25% in nine months and sitting at its best level since April 2022, people want to know: is an all-time high next? John Flood, a partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., thinks so.
There’s More Pain Ahead for S&P 500 as Profit Warnings Loom, Investors Say
There's more pain on the way for the S&P 500 as profit warnings and fears of higher interest rates combine to threaten the key US stock indicator, according to the latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
ETF of the Week: NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI)
VettaFi’s vice chairman Tom Lydon discussed the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
More Equal than Others: 20 Years of the S&P 500® Equal Weight Index
With over 20 years of live performance, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index’s history enables long-term comparisons to other indices and actively managed funds. The relative performance of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index offers insightful perspectives on the drivers of performance in—and the value added or subtracted by—actively managed U.S. equity funds. Despite sharing a similar pattern of excess returns, very few active funds were able to match the index’s returns over the past two decades.
Goldman’s Hedge Fund ETF Is Crushing the S&P 500 With AI Bets
The artificial intelligence boom is handing a big win to hedge funds angling for an edge.
Hedge Funds Rush to Buy Stocks on S&P 500’s Momentum
Some previously steadfast bears are showing signs of giving in after a seven-month advance put the S&P 500 on the edge of a key chart line.
Fund of Women-Run Firms Is Beating the S&P 500 Since Launching
A new exchange-traded fund is making the case that having women at the top of corporations translates into better returns.
S&P 500 Haters Now Make Enough in Treasuries to Bid Stocks Farewell
Surging bond yields have been rattling investors for a year. Why they’re a problem for people hooked on an asset as volatile as equities can be seen by juxtaposing stocks with some of the safest securities in the world.
Jeremy Grantham Warns of a 17% Plunge in the S&P 500 This Year
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
Emerging-Market Stocks Rise to Six-Month High Versus S&P 500
Emerging-market stocks extended their lead over US shares in the early days of the new year, with the equity benchmark rising to a six-month high against the S&P 500 Index.
S&P 500 ESG Index: Defining the Sustainable Core
Broad-market exposure meets sustainability. The S&P 500 ESG Index is a market-cap-weighted index that is designed to measure the performance of securities meeting sustainability criteria, while maintaining similar overall industry group weights as the S&P 500. Intentionally broad—including over 300 of the original S&P 500 companies—the index seeks to reflect many of the attributes of the S&P 500 itself, while providing an improved sustainability profile.
Lessons From The “Nifty Fifty”
Recently, Bank of America discussed the “5-Lessons From The Nifty Fifty.”
Leuthold’s Paulsen Sees S&P 500 at 5,000 in New Bull Cycle
At a time when virtually all of Wall Street is on guard against a recession, Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group said stocks are about to rally at least 25% in the next year.
Read, Write, Own—How Web3 Can Restore Trust in Markets and Society
“Web1” represents static websites, and “Web2” represents the shift in the delivery of the internet to user-centric, dynamic web offerings and platforms.
Equity Investors Aren’t Being Paid for the Risks They Take
Equity investors are not being adequately compensated for the economic, geopolitical and financial risks they are bearing. The equity risk premium is too small.
What the Inverted Yield Curve Says About the Next Recession
A yield curve inversion, when rates for two-year US Treasury notes rise above those for 10-year notes, has preceded every recession since the 1960s. The first clear inversion in 15 years happened in July 2022, although there were brief and shallow inversions in August 2019 and April 2022.
Recovery and Risk
Markets may continue to see volatility in 2023 as they navigate between global economic growth and inflation fears, with central banks' decreasing rate hikes and China's reopening.
Bonds Get a Meme Moment as Reddit Crowd Drifts Over From Stocks
James McHugh isn’t afraid of a little risk. The trouble this year has been knowing where to find it. Crypto burned him. Meme stocks are stuck in the pits. So McHugh, a 36-year-old who works in Houston’s oil and gas industry, has been getting his fix in a corner of the market retail investors typically overlook — junk debt.
The Drivers of the Efficiency of Protected Lifetime Income Benefit (PLIB) Strategies: Part 3
I explore some of the factors driving the superiority of PLIBs, in particular lapsation, mortality experience differences, accessing the equity risk premium, and the marginal role of annuities as part of a retirement strategy.
Estimating the Fair P/E Multiple
New research reveals that stock prices revert to a predictable P/E multiple, which is a function of growth and profitability. It also shows why growth stocks, while more profitable than value stocks, earn lower returns.
The Alternative Tech Stack
Let’s look at the powerful feature set an advisory firm could put together from a collection of the higher-rated, low-market-share programs and solutions that I’ve collected from past surveys, many of which you may not even be aware of.
This Stock Strategist Says We’ll See 5% Inflation for the Next Decade
While the crypto horror show rages on, stocks have quietly rallied almost 10% in the last month amid cautious optimism that the worst of the inflation shock is over. But might it be a head-fake?
Wall Street Veteran El-Erian Says Fed Comments Roil Markets
Mohamed El-Erian sees the rollercoaster ride in financial markets, with Friday’s surprisingly strong US jobs report producing the latest drop, as another lesson for Chairman Jerome Powell and his Federal Reserve colleagues.
December 2022 Portfolio Notes
We continue to believe that a value-conscious, risk-managed, full-cycle discipline, focused on the combination of valuations and market internals, will be essential in navigating market volatility in the years ahead.
U.S. Outlook: How Many More Times, Fed?
Weaker economic trends will likely form heading into 2023 as the Fed battles inflation, but a (hopefully) mild recession may help set stocks up for a better second half of the year.
The Labor Market Is Dead, Long Live the Labor Market
While economists have been lowering their employment forecast month over month over month, the U.S. labor market has continued to disappoint those forecasts and has remained relatively strong as well as relatively stable, with jobs growing at an average of 392,000 per month during 2022.
The Economy Is a-Changin’
Change is constant, in the economy and everything else. We talk about it often. Yet when we talk about the economy changing, we usually mean the economy’s condition is changing—from expansion to recession, deflationary to inflationary, emerging to developing, etc. That’s different from changes in the economy’s actual structure.
Wall Street Turns Bearish on Stocks After Bad Year
One bad year in the stock market has turned Wall Street strategists into bears after two decades of bullishness.
US Hiring and Wages Extend Strong Gains, Keeping Pressure on Fed
US employers added more jobs than forecast and wages surged by the most in nearly a year, pointing to enduring inflation pressures that boost chances of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
Stocks Tumble in Wake of Hot Labor Report
U.S. equities are sliding as investors sift through the November labor report that showed stronger-than-expected job growth.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
The Long-Run Behavior of Stocks, Government Bonds, and Inflation in the U.S.
To properly guide their clients, financial advisors must have a good understanding of the long-run behavior of stock and bonds returns.
S&P 500 Secures Second Consecutive Month Of Gains
Better than expected inflationary data and corporate earnings reports helped boost S&P 500 to back-to-back rallies for first time since mid-2021.
Quarterly Letter 3Q 2022
Value equities are still priced for significant outperformance, globally.
A Missing Piece of the SBF Puzzle
The ongoing public drama surrounding Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and FTX is still unfolding, and there's been excellent coverage of many aspects of the story. Here's a short note on one piece of the puzzle we think is quite important, but so far has remained somewhat under the radar.
Recession Resistant Consistent Growth Stock at Attractive Value
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) has produced incredibly consistent growth since it was spun off in 2001.
The Fed is Exporting Global Inflation - Part II
Whether foreign nations want or need tightening or easing, they are stuck with the monetary policy that the Fed decides America needs.
Energy CEOs Hit Mute Button on ESG, Hinting at Fading Interest
The top bosses of US oil and gas companies are speaking less and less about climate and carbon emissions, a signal that the industry’s public focus on ESG over the past couple of years may be fading.
Big Tech Has Failed to Live Up to Its Promise
It’s tempting to dismiss the mass layoffs and collapsing stock prices in the tech sector as just another blip in the tech boom-and-bust cycle.
November Brings Best Gains in Years to Emerging Markets
November has given a glimpse of the outperformance that emerging markets can deliver in the post-stimulus world as the maturing phase of Federal Reserve tightening focuses investors’ minds on the opportunities beyond.
Apple's Historic Buyback Keeps Investors Captivated
Apple Inc. has shelled out more than $550 billion buying back its own shares over the past decade, more than any other US company, and the technology juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down.
Global Yield Curve Inverts in Signal a Recession Is Brewing
Global bonds joined US peers in signaling a recession, with a gauge measuring the worldwide yield curve inverting for the first time in at least two decades.
Playing Inflation Russian Roulette in Retirement
The question most asked by investors late last year, as Treasury bill yields hovered just above zero was “Where can I go for yield?” followed soon after by “What can I do to protect myself from inflation?”
Stocks Subdued After Yesterday's Drop
U.S. stocks are choppy in pre-market trading on the heels of yesterday's drop ahead of tomorrow's comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Fixed Income Strategy if a Recession is Declared
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Can European Credit Ride Out the Storm?
As Europe struggles with war, costly energy, record inflation and slowing growth, it’s no surprise that European corporate credit is out of favor.
Does the Inflation Risk Premium Decline Signal Lower Commodity Prices?
There are many ways to decompose the bond market to identify the component pieces to infer what the market is pricing in.
Do Clients Need to Know Your Net Worth?
A planner who fails to follow their own advice is hardly going to inspire confidence in prospective clients.
Doll's Deliberations
Doll’s Deliberations this week summarizes some short-term expectations and some longer-term issues.
Rising Inventory Will Be the Housing Market’s Next Problem
The US housing market is in an uneasy state of equilibrium.
Using Silicon Valley's "Open Secret" to Buy a World-Class Tech Stock
There’s a big “open secret” in Silicon Valley that’s spreading, one that has already reached three-fourths of FANG. But the market has yet to recognize its impact on one remaining company.
More Bearish Market Action Before The Bull Can Run
Following the weaker-than-expected October inflation report, stocks surged on hopes the Fed will “pivot” sooner than later. As we discussed recently, a “policy pivot” is not necessarily bullish but instead suggests more bearish market action will come first.
Contrasting Protected Lifetime Income Benefits (PLIBs) Against Other Annuities (Part 2)
This article explores the efficacy of PLIBs against a retirement income strategy that does not include an annuity, as well as strategies which allocate to either a SPIA, a DIA, or a GLWB. I used a utility framework for this analysis.
Evolution & Revolution: Five Technology Megatrends Impacting Society
Technology megatrends transform society, and there is a hugely significant fourth wave on the horizon.
Looking Up
Vivek Tanneeru, portfolio manager, sees structural and cyclical tailwinds converging for emerging markets equities.
Three Income Themes for Multi-Asset Investors in 2023
In one of the most challenging years for markets, 2022 brought persistently high inflation, aggressive central bank tightening and heightened geopolitical risks, leaving investors with few places to hide.
SEC to Push Bond and Option Brokers for Better Prices on Trades
The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s draft plans to overhaul rules for the stock market would also expand its oversight of bond and options trading.
Tesla a Bargain as It Nears Morgan Stanley Bear Case
After losing nearly $300 billion in market value in two months, a growing chorus of Tesla Inc. analysts are saying the share-price decline has gone far enough.
Oil Prices Are Breaking an Old Recession Tradition
Historically, soaring oil prices have been bad for the US economy because they squeeze US consumers and producers, and often are happening when the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to rein in inflation.
Stocks Increasing Amid Well Received Earnings Reports
U.S. equities are rising, although no notable directional drivers seem to be in play amid the holiday-shortened week, with the markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and trading in a half day on Friday.
Home Builders’ Sentiment
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) sentiment about the future was 33% and at its lowest since 2012.
Fed Hawkishness Peaks as Rising Debt Payments Erode Savings
Tighter Federal Reserve policy is raising households’ interest-rate burden, leading to a rapid decline in excess savings and underscoring the likelihood hawkishness has peaked.
Cathie Wood Goes On Coinbase Buying Spree as Wall Street Sours
Wall Street’s waning conviction in Coinbase Global Inc. has done little to deter Cathie Wood. Instead, she’s been scooping up shares of the struggling cryptocurrency exchange in the wake of the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX.
The Case for Annuities in Today’s Market
Advisors and their clients need to manage pressures they have not seen for 20 years: market volatility, inflation, rising interest rates and potentially higher taxes. With fixed income not holding up as a low-risk part of the portfolio, it is time to look at other strategies to protect client portfolios.
The Silver Lining to Investment Losses in 2022
Believe it or not, 2022 is almost over. That means it’s time to start thinking about end-of-year tax planning strategies…