S&P 500

Those who are familiar with my articles know that I see market crashes in stocks and bonds occurring in this decade, combined with serious inflation. Readers ask how I recommend protecting. This is it.

I have been doing this long enough to know that the economy is a complex, self-adjusting mechanism, and thus the grim picture I have painted in this and previous articles may not play out.

New research quantifies the implicit cost that investors incur when index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500, are rebalanced. Those costs may be avoidable by adopting trading strategies that introduce the possibility of tracking error.

Is long-term strategic investing out the window? To earn returns in today’s market, you need a team that will rethink your investment philosophy and strategy.

Last week’s rising stock prices suggested that many investors are still wishing the Federal Reserve will step in to counter downward pressures on the market. Hopes for this “Fed put,” however, may be confusing the Fed’s willingness to act with its ability to do so.

The tale of Bear Stearns’ rally and investors' myopic vision in the spring of 2008 is a valuable lesson for today.

Investors in Bitcoin and other digital assets have been pummeled recently by the longest losing streak since 2011.

There are costs to living a virtuous life; It requires going without.

They are creations of easy credit, beneficiaries of central bank largesse. And now that the era of unconventional monetary policy is over, they’re facing a challenge like never before.

Our fiscal deficit, as measured by the debt-to-GDP ratio, has grown to levels that could impede growth, as predicted by financial theory and confirmed by empirical evidence. Moreover, new research shows that our burgeoning deficit could increase risk premiums for both stocks and bonds.

The war in Ukraine will pour more gasoline on the already raging inflationary fire, threatening to send the global economy into stagflation. Stagflation is a slowdown of economic activity caused by inflation.

With the Federal Reserve releasing minutes from its latest meeting on Wednesday, traders are looking for further details on the plans to let billions of dollars worth of bonds to mature each month without replacing them.

Recent warnings from corporate executives and rapidly declining regional manufacturing surveys make me wonder if a recession has already started.

In the face of bad news, what, if anything, should you do to adjust your long-term portfolio management strategy?

Liquidity is the lifeblood of the capital markets. It is the ease at which an asset can be turned into cash without disrupting the price of that asset. This was never really a concern in the US, whose markets are prized for being the deepest, most liquid in the world. It’s one reason why the dollar is the world’s dominant reserve currency.

Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports is a “declaration of war” that threatens to trigger mass migration and a global food crisis, a United Nations official said, adding to the dire warnings on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"The bear is coming! The bear is coming!" Indeed, it is. Should you be worried?

Shiller’s CAPE ratio is the most-cited predictor of long-term equity returns. But new research shows that the “Buffett” indicator does a good job of forecasting, and both ratios predict subdued, long-term returns for stocks.

Volatility is the standard measure used by advisors to measure risk. It has been useful but has limitations. There are ways that volatility will not provide an accurate representation of the risk of an investment portfolio.

Wherever you get your news, there's no escaping the perception that rising prices are breaking the US economy. Recession is almost a foregone conclusion on the Bloomberg terminal, which aggregates 150,000 news sources with every bulletin categorized and counted. Headlines with the word “inflation,” increased 345% to 186,000 times a month since the beginning of 2020, while “strong economy” declined 48% to 1,766 times monthly.

The US economy is starting to show signs of strain under the weight of decades-high inflation and climbing interest rates -- raising the risk of a downturn.

A fatal shortcoming lies beneath the academic papers that have relied upon “back-testing” to promote the 4% rule. Use our Premium membership service to add your logo and send this to clients.

There are thousands of mutual funds that offer to select stocks and bonds for your portfolio. But which ones are right for you? Use our Premium membership service to add your logo and a note from you and forward it to your clients.

Tesla has grown into a $735 billion company on the back of its breakthrough electric-vehicle engineering. Its own carbon footprint is a small fraction of its peers, and its success in the market has pushed the industry overall away from gas-powered vehicles.

Historical data shows that stock markets have reacted poorly when the Fed has contracted its balance sheet and reduced liquidity – and the effect is more pronounced when Fed actions deviate from what the market expects.

In 1995, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin asserted that a strong dollar is in the US national interest, a mantra repeated by each of his successors. They’re partially correct since the effects of the robust buck, which has soared this year, help some while harming others.

Surging inflation showed little sign of abating last month, indicating that grocery bills will keep going up, markets will remain volatile and investors will continue to feel pain in their 401(k)s.

The latest US inflation report should be a reality check for Wall Street, but many investors are still wearing rose-colored glasses. Bond yields ticked slightly higher Wednesday after the Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose more than forecast last month, but they are still nowhere near reflecting the monetary policy path it may take to rein in inflation.

Liquidity is fading due to the Fed, and therefore volatility is on the rise. Illiquid and volatile markets are not conducive to long-term wealth generation.

Problems occur when a market shift reduces investment opportunities after a period when investor capital has been scaled up. The current climate portends such a shift.

To achieve its mission of reducing inflation, the Fed will keep raising rates, according to Albert Edwards, and won’t stop before the S&P 500 hits 3,000.

The historical data has shown that the value premium is smaller for large-cap securities than for small caps. But new research shows that large-cap investors can increase the premium by pursuing an equal-weighted strategy.

Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen and Cathie Wood have spent the past few days on Twitter exchanging ideas about how investing and financial markets work — all in the name of liberating small-fry investors from elite giants that manage and peddle index funds.

The Fed is on a single-minded mission to fight inflation, according to Jim Bianco. To do that, it will crush stock prices and home values.

The U.S. economy will be in recession in the second half of this year, according to David Rosenberg. Equity Investors should brace for a 30% bear market decline.

In an ambitious new book, the economist Andrew Smithers rejects core “Newtonian” principles of economics, replacing them with radical departures from conventional wisdom. But as I will explain, some of Smithers’ theories fail meet the standard of empirical verification.

Investors seeking higher yields and relatively low risk, and are willing to sacrifice liquidity, will find attractive opportunities in interval funds that invest in senior secured, middle-market loans, such as those offered by Cliffwater.

If you think it has been painful that the market has been down each of the past four weeks, your nest egg hasn’t seen anything yet.

Imagine that you have joined some friends for a day of fishing. About two miles offshore, you sense that something is wrong. The small, single engine boat’s handling has changed. There seems to be more. Use our premium service to add your company’s logo and send this to clients.

Markets don’t have feelings or morals. They do not care what an investor needs and there is no investment or strategy that has consistently provided returns well in excess of those earned in the broad markets. Use our premium service to add your company’s logo and send this to clients.

In propping up Japan's economy and financial markets, its central bank indirectly provided liquidity to the world's financial markets. But the BOJ could unleash a liquidity vacuum felt around the world.