F.A.S.T. Graphs

Global Payments Inc. (GPN) has produced incredibly consistent growth since it was spun off in 2001.

In February of this year, I posted a subscriber request video titled: “5 Premier Dividend Growth Stocks With A Margin Of Safety.”

S&P 500 Introduction 2022 has been a bad year price-wise for the stock market as measured by the S&P 500. However, I contend that is not enough to simply know that the market is down, it is even more important to know why.

Medical Properties Trust (MPW) claims to be the second largest nongovernmental owner of hospitals in the world.

Cannabis stock Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. (IIPR) claims to be “the leading provider of real estate capital for the regulated cannabis industry.”

After enjoying a long-running bull stock market, the recent drop in stock prices is causing investor angst.

When it comes to investing in stocks, I believe that intelligent investing implies investing for specific objectives or needs.

FedEx (FDX) preannounced an earnings shortfall and the stock price is down more than 20%.

The S&P 500 is a popular proxy to represent the state of the stock market.

Value investing is all about finding bargains that meet your investment goals and provide a margin of safety long-term. HP Inc (HPQ) and Hewlett-Packard Enterprises (HPE) represent two dividend growth stocks with uncanny similarities regarding valuation and yield.

We get a lot of questions about what we call Normal P/E Ratio on a FAST Graph.

3M (MMM) is currently facing many challenges; however, I believe management is up to the challenges.

Investing is a numbers game, and at the beginning it can be very daunting.

In this analyze out loud video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs offers a by-the-numbers review of Magna International Inc. (MGA).

Comcast (CMCSA) is a Dividend Contender with 15 consecutive years of raising its dividend.

Growth stocks can be very powerful long-term investments.

If you are looking for safety when buying stocks, consider stocks with strong balance sheets, and GOOGL has one.

This video reviews 5 investment grade dividend paying growth stocks that appear attractively valued in the industrial sector.

Warren Buffett once famously suggested that investors should be “greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.”

In this video I will cover 4 dividend growth stocks: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), Intel Corp (INTC), International Business Machines (IBM) and AT&T Inc (T).

As I said so many times, although you can learn a great deal from the past, you can only invest for the future.

Throughout the duration of the recent bull market (one of the longest on record) common stocks in the general sense became significantly overvalued.

This bear market we currently find us in is bringing tremendous opportunity.

Bear Market As a card-carrying self-appointed value investor, I relish a bear market and quite frankly recessions. To the astute and disciplined value investor, bear markets bring opportunity, and more to the point, safety. In this video, I will illustrate why I feel this way and why I believe you should as well.

As an old saying states that statistics do not lie, but statisticians are darn liars.

The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.

In this video I cover 20 stocks requested by subscribers.

I often say that it is a market of stocks and not a stock market.

Since the recession of 2008 in 2009, financial stocks in general have been trading at significantly lower valuations than normal.

Most investors take their cue from stock price volatility.

Welcome to another subscriber request where I will cover 42 stocks.

I believe one of the most dangerous behaviors is the willingness to invest in highly overvalued stocks.

Value investors love recessions because they intelligently recognize that recessions bring opportunity.

It would be an understatement to say that the stock market has been volatile recently.

Although you can learn a great deal from studying the past, you can only invest in the future.

Stocks that do not pay a dividend are often thought of as growth stocks.

Dividend Growth Stocks Dividend growth stocks are one of the more favored classes of stocks that investors want to hear about.

For one of the few times in history investors can invest in Starbucks stock (SBUX) on sale.

Stocks come in all sizes, shapes, and flavors. Nothing could illustrate that better than the 31 stocks you asked to see last week.

In this video you will see dividend growth stocks, some that remain overvalued, some that have become undervalued and everything in between.

Stanley Black & Decker has increased their dividend for 54 consecutive years making it a Dividend Aristocrat, Dividend Champion and a Dividend King.

Even though Netflix (NFLX) stock is down approximately 35% today, I contend the company is still too expensive to invest in.

As a result of the recent bear market action in stocks, many have fallen to 52-week lows.

The bull market has created a lot of risk for prudent value investors.

For several years now it has been almost impossible to find dividend growth stocks with impeccable quality at reasonable prices.

On August 24, 2021, I presented two attractively valued dividend growth stock portfolios. One portfolio emphasized growth over income, and the other emphasized income over growth.

There are several sources of return that can be achieved by investing in common stocks.

Dividend Contenders are mostly fast-growing dividend growth stocks that increase their dividends for 10 to 25 consecutive years.

For this Subscriber Request Tuesday, I was asked to provide examples of dividend growth stocks that were getting cheaper because of the current market drops.

Most investors experience stress during a bear market. In contrast, value investors like yours truly become excited almost to the point of being giddy. We see bear markets as the gift that keeps on giving. This is especially true after a long-running bull market like we have experienced for the last several years.

Cybersecurity Stocks Now that Russia has invaded Ukraine, the threat of cyber-attacks from Russian hackers has intensified. Many are concerned regarding Russian retaliation for sanctions. Nevertheless, Russian hackers were already notorious for attacking companies’ networks demanding ransomware.

Finding attractively valued and high-yielding investments is difficult in the current market and economic environment.

This is the 11th in a series of 11 videos where I will cover each of the 11 sectors looking for value.

This is the 10th in a series of 11 videos where I will cover each of the 11 sectors looking for value.

After recording the largest one-day drop in market value in history for a US company, what does the future now hold?

This is the 9th in a series of 11 videos where I will cover each of the 11 sectors looking for value.

The Balance Sheet continued.

This is the 7th in a series of 11 videos where I will cover each of the 11 sectors looking for value.

This is the 6th in a series of 11 videos where I will cover each of the 11 sectors looking for value.

First, I am going to cover Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) that I inadvertently left out of my last video.

This is the 3rd in a series of 11 videos where I will cover each of the 11 sectors looking for value. There are somewhere between 18,000 to 20,000 stocks comprising the US and Canadian stock markets. With

In this video I will go over 9 stocks to buy in the Consumer Discretionary Sector.

Topic 4: Basic Accounting Concepts (Part 1)

As 2022 begins we find the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 extremely overvalued and vulnerable to rising interest rates.

Leggett & Platt (LEG) has come into fair value after being overvalued for most of 2021. As a result, the company offers a dividend yield approaching 5% and their last dividend increase announced was the 50th consecutive year of increasing their dividend. This puts the company into the elite category of a Dividend King.

Tech powerhouse Oracle (ORCL) announced the purchase of the health records company Cerner (CERN) through an all-cash tender offer of $95 per share. With this video I will illustrate whether (or not) Oracle purchased Cerner at an attractive valuation.

Even though the overall market as measured by the S&P 500 is extremely overvalued, there are stocks in the market that are not.

In this video Mr. Valuation will illustrate that that despite temporary issues, Omega Healthcare represents a long-term opportunity for significant income and capital appreciation.

The 40% plus drop of DocuSign, Inc.’s (DOCU) stock price last Friday represents a quintessential example. There were no fundamentals that could possibly support the lofty valuation of DocuSign, Inc. Nevertheless, the stock price quickly collapsed...

In this video on lessons on valuation, I am going to cover several stocks that subscribers have requested. However, I will simultaneously provide what I consider to be very important lessons in valuation. Not all price drops are the same.

Although you can learn a great deal from the past you can only invest in the future. Today many believe the future of the Internet and technology is the Metaverse. Therefore, I have begun putting together a portfolio of stocks that are poised to participate in the next stage of technology growth – the Metaverse.

According to Barron’s magazine, IBM is finally growing again. Consequently, it may be a perfect time to begin building a position in this blue-chip Dividend Champion.

In this video I present 8 undervalued dividend growth stocks with dividend yields ranging from 2.51% to 5.11%. All these companies are undervalued in what is a very overheated stock market today.

In this video, I will be comparing the investment merit of Bank of America Corp. versus Citigroup Inc. I will be comparing these two money center banks and evaluating them based on income, growth, and total return potential.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported fiscal Q1 earnings and offered what many consider to be downbeat quarterly revenue guidance. As a result, Cisco stock was down as much as 9.2% at one point and is currently down about 8%.

Investing is not a one size fits all process. Furthermore, risk should also be a major investor consideration. Importantly, risk is a multifaceted concept which I will attempt to convey throughout this video.

Information technology is one of the fastest growing sectors in the stock market. Consequently, technology stocks offer the potential for the highest long-term total returns. But unfortunately, there is a fly in the ointment.

Today in this video I want to talk about some investing principles that kind of relate to me, and actually represent kind of a pet peeve of mine, if you will.

Alphabet $GOOGL, a.k.a. Google is not your ordinary company or stock. This is a powerful growth stock that despite its near $2 trillion market cap continues to grow at a high rate.

Introduction Meta Platforms, Inc. (FB) a.k.a. Facebook has experienced a double-digit slump in stock price since August. With this video we will conduct a FAST fundamental analysis of the company by the numbers. Importantly, this is a true growth stock, and as such, needs to be looked at differently than you would a traditional company...

According to Zacks Investment Research CVS Health is the world’s 7th largest company by revenue and ranked 7th on the Fortune Global 500 list.

Snap-on Inc. (SNA) is a high-quality mid-cap Dividend Contender with 11 consecutive years of dividend increases that has recently come into fair value.

Both analysts and Intel’s management expect to see earnings and cash flows, especially free cash flow, fall precipitously over the next few years. However, the primary reason is because management has decided to take aggressive action to catapult long-term future growth.

If you like investing in consistent predictable double-digit growth as I do, then you will love Fortune Brands...

Dividend Contenders are high-quality dividend growth stocks that have increased their dividends for 10 up to 24 years. Therefore, they offer investors the opportunity to receive a growing dividend income stream to help keep up with inflation.

I am constantly being asked to provide a list of high-quality consistent dividend growth stocks. Consequently, I conducted a search and came up with 40 dividend growth stocks that I feel are worthy of further research and due diligence. These companies have consistent long-term operating history and solid prospects for future growth.

Dividend Aristocrats that look very attractively valued today. I often get asked if I could give a list of my best stocks to invest in. Unfortunately, that is a very loaded question simply because the best stocks (businesses) are not always the best investments.

Are These 2 Stocks Better Than Bonds? Can a case really be made to use blue-chip dividend paying stocks as bond substitutes? This is a very controversial question that has existed in the investment community since I have been involved over the past 50 years.

As a long time value investor there are ideal characteristics that I look for in a stock. For starters, I prefer consistent above-average growth – the more consistent the better.

In this video I will share the absolute best investment advice that can be given to young investors.

This is another one of my Subscriber Request Tuesday videos.

With this video, which is the 3rd and final part of a 3-part series, I present 3 dividend growth portfolios that can be built in today’s generally overvalued market.

In building a dividend income portfolio, or any portfolio for that matter, you need to approach portfolio construction with common sense and realistic appraisal of your own emotional abilities and tendencies.

It is hard but not impossible to find attractively valued dividend growth stocks in today’s frothy stock market.

Growth stocks are different than ordinary everyday average stocks.

Hedging your portfolio from the pending market crash.

With this video I am presenting 20 A rated or better attractively valued dividend growth stocks with low debt and above-market yields.

When stocks you own spins off a segment or division of its business, the company you own changes.

With this week’s Subscriber Request Video I will be covering Artesian Partners Asset Management, Inc. (APAM) – a dividend paying high yielding small-cap that appears attractively valued.

On August 5, 2021, Cigna (CI) shares fell approximately 11%, which caused a lot of concern for investors.

Amgen stock price fell approximately 6 and half percent yesterday.

Clorox reported what many are describing as disastrous earnings for the 4th fiscal quarter 2021.

This week’s subscriber request video will look at the 6 leading Canadian banks.

Although the recent crash or meltdown of prominent China stocks was for the most part political in nature, valuation also played a role.

This is part 3 of my three-part series dissecting the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

In part 1 I looked at the most reasonably valued 10 stocks out of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average Constituents.

Only 10 of 30 stocks are attractively valued blue-chip stocks making up the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) today.

Even though we are in a long-running and very inflated bull market, there are value stocks to be found.

In this video I cover 7 REITs for income and growth that subscribers to the channel asked me to cover.

Alibaba – The Chinese Amazon is one of the stocks I get asked about all the time.

Have energy stocks run out of gas?

Dividends are paid out of cash flow and/or earnings, not stock price volatility.

I have an interesting video for you today on stock research and due diligence on finding great stocks to invest in.

Even in today’s richly valued stock market, drug retail stocks are incredibly cheap.

Every Tuesday I do a subscriber request video. With this video I will be looking at the publicly traded homebuilders in the USA based homebuilding industry.

Although the overall market looks extremely overvalued, there is a lot of value in mid-cap stocks.

In this video I will go over 13 Top Brands – How Much Are They Worth?

For this week’s Subscriber Request Tuesday, I will be comparing Home Depot to Lowe’s.

Investing in growth stocks are very different than investing in ordinary stocks.

This week’s subscriber request series Tuesday covers 10 popular equity REITs.

Although interest rates have risen since the pandemic started, they continue at levels that would be considered historically low.

One of the most asked questions I receive is; how do I evaluate ETFs?

Semiconductor and semiconductor equipment companies tend to be very cyclical and very volatile.

I love blue-chip dividend growth stocks that consistently grow their businesses and their dividends year after year.

Investing in fast-growing companies has long been one of the best ways to build incredible wealth.

Is AT&T a value trap or dividend income turbo charger?

I love talking about valuation and teaching its importance to investors, especially young investors.

A market crash is pending and could possibly be imminent. I am quite certain about this for reasons I will provide shortly.

The NASDAQ is falling as tech stocks begin to show cracks in their armor. Of course, according to Mr. Valuation the reason is simple – most tech stocks are overvalued.

Regarding automobile stocks, virtually every automotive manufacturer is entering the electric vehicle and autonomous driving market in some form or another.

With this video I put together 10 attractively valued dividend growth stocks offering the potential for both growing dividend income and strong capital appreciation.

Everybody is looking for IPOs and emerging growth stocks and the opportunity to invest in the next Facebook, Amazon or Netflix. Consequently, young new emerging companies have a strong market available to launch their businesses publicly.

The sell decision appears to be the most difficult decision that common stock investors must make.

After working with investors for more than 50 years, I have learned many things about human nature.

With this video I will cover the 14 regional banks that are part of the S&P 500.

With this video I am covering the 5 diversified major bank stocks in the S&P 500.

This is a continuing subscriber request video.

The S&P 500 is trading at an excessive valuation.

When investing in the stock market, it is not uncommon that certain sectors will become either red-hot or stone cold.

This is one of my continuing subscriber request Tuesday video series where I cover stocks that were requested by you my valued subscribers.

The words growth stocks have different meanings to different people.

Subscriber Request Series: 5 Biotechnology and 2 Pharmaceutical Companies on sale.

Last week I posted the video “10 Dividend Growth Stocks To Beat The Market” In that video I was primarily focused on investing in faster growing attractively valued dividend growth stocks for high total return and potential market beating returns.

There are many detractors that believe that dividend growth stock investing is stodgy, old and boring.

Make Money with Auto Makers, like Tesla, Ford, Stellantis, Honda, General Motors, Nissan, Volkswagen, etc. have a legacy of finding it difficult to grow profits consistently.

One of the most asked questions I receive from investors is: how many stocks should I own/hold in my portfolio?

The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 is at an all-time high.

Growth stocks are a different breed, and they cannot be valued in the same way you value average businesses.

For the last year or two big tech has been hot, so has new tech. For prudence sake, it might be time to take a little money off the table. No one can time the market, and the bubble has risen far further and for a lot longer than any rational person could have predicted.

One of the most common complaints I hear from investors is that their advisors or brokers like to tell them when to buy, but never tell them when to sell. Whether those criticisms are fair or not, the sell decision is certainly the most vexing decision that investors face.

It goes without saying that COVID-19 and the pandemic has been and is a terrible thing. People have gotten terribly sick and many have even succumbed to this horrible virus. Clearly, there is nothing good or positive that can be said about this scourge from a purely human or humanity perspective.

AT&T reported earnings today and although they beat expectations, the stock is trading down over 2% so far. The company was light on revenues compared to 2019 but did report free cash flow for the year of $27.5 billion, slightly below the $29 billion reported in 2019.

Although the company faces stiff competition from well-capitalized behemoths such as Microsoft and Google, the company has carved out a niche for itself.

Please accept this special edition offering on Walt Disney Company (DIS) as a lesson on valuation. Over the many years I have been a value investor, I have learned that even the best companies can become dangerously overvalued by the market.

Tesla (TSLA) makes great automobiles, and although that is not all that they do, the Tesla automobile generates most of their revenues. That may not always be the case, but it is today.

The better informed the investor is, the better the investment decisions they can make. But being an informed investor can be a very arduous task, and some would even say that conducting research on common stocks is a real snoozer.

As Mr. Valuation, I find myself constantly reminding investors that value investing requires patience. However, value investing also requires the willingness to get your money in front of attractive valuation when it is discovered. Trying to time your purchases perfectly can just as easily cause you to miss out on significant gains as it is to participate in them.

I recently did a search of the life and health insurance subsector and came up with 25 names that I considered the highest quality in the overall subsector. All of them carried investment grade credit ratings of BBB+ or better – except for one.

Many investors are attempting to justify higher stock “valuations” because interest rates are at historical lows. I would agree that lower interest rates could affect “market valuations” based on the simple law of supply and demand. The concept is simple, when fixed income offers lower returns it logically stimulates more demand for equities where higher returns can be found.

There are technical distinctions between investing versus speculating. Nevertheless, both concepts are often thought about or utilized interchangeably. Moreover, there are nuanced distinctions between a rational or well-thought-out speculation versus outright gambling.

Value often comes when good companies go out of favor, this is especially true in bull markets like we have been in the last several years. Almost by definition, when stocks are out of favor it further implies that their near-term performance may not be all that attractive.

This week I did a complete re-read of Joel Greenblatt’s classic “The Little Book That Beats The Market.” For any of you that are not familiar with the book, Joel Greenblatt presents his magic formula for picking stocks that his research indicated will beat the market most of the time.

I find it very interesting that Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALXN) after going public in 2001, did not generate their first profit until December 2008. As we all know, this was in the throes of what is now known as the Great Recession of 2008.

After reporting better than 4^th quarter results on Tuesday, the stock price of FedEx Corp. (FDX) has been on a tear. With this article, I plan to demonstrate that the fundamentals support the current price rise.

I consider Oracle an attractively valued dividend growth stock with an emphasis on growth. Oracle has a long history of generating above-average growth of earnings and cash flows, and since paying its first dividend in 2009, its dividend growth has been nothing short of extraordinary.

In this part 2, I want to share an additional perspective that my research on the growing levels of corporate debt uncovered.

The accelerated use of debt to fund the capital needs of publicly traded companies is clearly attributed to today’s unprecedented low cost of debt. Although we have all been trained and perhaps even indoctrinated into the belief that debt is bad, these are clearly unusual circumstances.

From January 31, 2020 through March 31, 2020 the market as measured by the S&P 500 fell approximately 20%. As a result, I published an article on March 26, 2020 titled “It’s A Buyers’ Market – Choose Quality If You’re Scared: 20 A-Rated, Low-Debt Blue Chips To Consider” where I implied that the market as measured by the S&P 500 had gone from being overvalued to undervalued.

In today’s uncertain investing world, I believe it is extremely important to first and foremost focus on safety and quality. Since my primary investment focus is now on dividends and dividend growth, safety to me is primarily about valuation along with dividend coverage and predictability.

This is Part 3 of this 3-part series looking at the final 10 stocks that rose in the crisis.

In part 1 of this 3 part series I provided a quick cursory look at 10 of 30 stocks that MarketWatch pointed out have done very well in spite of the coronavirus market crash. In that first group of 10, there were several names that were reasonably valued.

I have long asserted that it is a market of stocks and not a stock market. Perhaps the veracity of that statement has never been clearer than it is today. We are all aware of the devastation to the stock market in general that the shutdown instigated by the coronavirus has cost

During this horrible crisis, I feel very fortunate that “social distancing” is very practical and easy for my family and me. We are blessed to live in the country on a 20-acre estate with a private lake and a backyard that is steaming with wildlife.

When markets get as volatile as they’ve been lately, it’s extremely difficult for investors to avoid our innate “fight or flight” response. In our states of heightened emotion (fear) our logical minds try to tell us that we are witnessing an incredible buying opportunity for long-term oriented investors.

It’s stating the obvious to say that the stock markets have been in a freefall as a result of the coronavirus. However, I think it’s also important to point out that what we have recently experienced in the stock markets more resembles a flash crash than it does a correction.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index of 30 stocks that is often utilized as a proxy for the whole market. Since it is such a small index, I thought you all might find it interesting to see what the market looks like considering the recent volatility.

For those investors interested in investing for an increasing dividend income stream, the Dividend Aristocrats represent the crème de la crème. Standard & Poor’s produces this premier list of blue-chip dividend growth stocks that have increased their dividends for 25 consecutive years.

For some time now I have been pointing out that the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 has become moderately overvalued. However, even more to the point, I still believe that to be true even after the price corrections we have experienced recently as a result of the coronavirus.

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE) is a company in transition that will soon be smaller but hopefully more profitable. Since many of their established drugs are coming off patent, the company is divesting its older drug platform under the Upjohn brand and selling it to Mylan a leading generic pharmaceutical company. Pfizer believes that this will position them for more profitable growth going forward.

The bottom line to me is that Tesla is certainly a very expensive stock today. On the other hand, there is very interesting future growth expectations that could make long-term shareholders a lot of money.

Legendary investor and mentor to many investing greats Benjamin Graham once aptly stated that: “investing is most intelligent when it is most businesslike.” Personally, I agree which is why I refer to what I personally adhere to and practice with my own investing as “business perspective investing.”

Ever since I first entered the investment industry circa 1970, I have been confronted with a constant and persistent admonition about the next pending market crash. In those early days I contributed much of the negativity toward stocks to a lingering overhang from the Great Depression...

The top 3 Medical DistributorsAmerisourceBergen (ABC), Cardinal Health (CAH) and McKesson Corp. (MCK) dominate the distribution of pharmaceuticals and are estimated to represent 90% to 95% of the market. Moreover, each are dividend growth stocks, and as a specific subsector group all appear significantly undervalued.

The idea that interest rates directly affect stock prices is a commonly held belief among many investors. There are some that even go as far as to say that the only reason the stock market is up is because interest rates have been artificially kept low by the Fed.

Almost by definition, value investing rarely performs well in the short run. This is especially true when you are in a strong bull market like we’ve been in since March 2009. Most companies as represented by the S&P 500 are currently trading at fundamental multiples that are significantly above historical norms.

With this article I am going to present several ways that investors, especially retired investors, can beat the market without fail. However, what I will be presenting may not be what you are expecting, particularly if you have a narrow notion of what beating the market means.

The Key to Avoiding Obvious Mistakes Understanding how to value a business is the key to avoiding making obvious mistakes when purchasing or selling common stocks. When you know what your investment is worth, the market cannot take advantage of your gullibility.

In part 2 of this series I focused on how to value slow and moderately growing businesses. In this article, Part 3, I will shift my focus on how to value faster growing companies (growth stocks).

The venerable investor Warren Buffett has a real knack of putting complex concepts and ideas into simple and easily understood terms. In my opinion, his quote, “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get” is one of the more profound and important statements he has ever uttered.

As a seasoned and grizzled veteran of the financial services industry for now going on 50 years, the most commonly asked questions I have received, and still do to this day, are: when to buy and when to sell a stock?

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) is one of the highest quality large-cap technology companies in the world. After being overvalued for most of 2019, this high-quality once pure growth stock, now dividend growth stock, has come into fair value.

Since the beginning of April 2009, the Standard & Poor’s 500 (the stock market) has enjoyed one of the longest bull markets on record. As a result, I am starting to hear from a lot of investors that they are becoming worried that this great bull market must soon come to an end.

This article is offered as part of our ongoing FAST Graphs YouTube request series. Although time does not allow me to cover every stock that is requested, I do try to provide analyze out loud videos on stocks that either are currently in the news, or that offer special lessons on valuation.

14 years ago the Redstone family spun out Viacom (VIA) from CBS Corp (CBS). However, the companies have decided to once again merge into what they hope will become a dominant entertainment company. Given that the entertainment market is extremely competitive and quite risky, future visibility is very muddy in my humble opinion.

The primary purpose of this article on the importance of forecasting the future results of a business is offered to illustrate the conceptual validity of forecasting earnings (and every other metric) as the key to long-term investor success.

As investors, we can learn a great deal from the past about the businesses we are contemplating investing in. However, as investors, we must also recognize that we can only truly invest in the future.

I would like to credit my good friend Jeff Miller for providing the inspiration for this article. In his recent article titled “Weighing The Week Ahead: Falling Confidence A Possible Threat To Markets” he suggested a must read article by Safal Niveshak titled “Why Value Investing Works.”

I am a value investor, and all my investments are made with a long-term objective in mind. Consequently, I am a believer that time in the market is often what matters most. However, I will qualify that remark by saying that you also make your money on the buy side.

My personal investing strategy is based on the simple logic and reality that great businesses are by definition, better than average. Therefore, to my way of thinking, it logically follows that the best investment returns would be achieved by investing in the best businesses that you could identify.

This FAST Graphs analyze out loud video will cover a mid-cap dividend growth stock that many may not be familiar with. However, I believe this particular dividend growth stock offers an intriguing opportunity of high current yield, above-average growth yield and enticing capital appreciation potential based on its low valuation.

To me, fair value, as it relates to common stock investments, is manifest when the current earnings yield provided by the company’s profits compensates me for the risk I am taking by providing both a realistic and acceptable return on my invested capital.

When it comes to writing about investing in common stocks, my favorite theme typically revolves around valuation. In fact, I once had a reader dub me “Mr. Valuation.” Which, I might add was very flattering to me.

An article on when to sell a stock would not be complete without some discussion about what I consider to be the worst reason to sell a stock. Ironically, this reason may be the one that is most commonly implemented by investors.

Before I get too deep into this article, I want to start out by stating that Microsoft (MSFT) has long been one of my favorite companies. Many years ago, I invested in Microsoft as a pure growth stock and sold it in 2000 when it became dangerous overvalued after making a very healthy long-term profit.

The most common complaint that I have heard from investors over my 49+ years in the financial services industry is as follows: “Everyone wants to tell me what to buy and when, but no one ever tells me when to sell.”

The key to success is to find and implement the strategy that best fits your own unique goals, objectives, needs, and most importantly – risk tolerances.

This article is a refresh and an update of an article I originally posted in 2015. However, the principles I am presenting are timeless and worthy of being revisited.

One of the great benefits for subscribing to The Dividend Kings service are the carefully-selected portfolios presented in our portfolio tracker. However, I want to caution the subscriber that these portfolios should not be looked at as simply cut-and-paste investment options.

This article is a refresh and an update of an article I originally posted in 2015. However, the principles I am presenting are timeless and worthy of being revisited. Moreover, I have updated the supporting examples to more precisely reflect our current market environment.

One of my greatest pet peeves as a long-time investment professional is the industries’ notion that stocks can be generally categorized into only two styles commonly referred to as growth investing or value investing.

I have held AbbVie (ABBV) since it was originally spun off from Abbott Labs. Moreover, I have been aggressively adding to my position for clients needing current income and dividend growth.

I am a firm believer and ardent supporter of conducting comprehensive research and due diligence on any company (stock) you might consider investing in. However, I have also experienced the reality that far too many investors make their decisions based on opinions, emotions or vague ideas about a company...

In his Berkshire Hathaway 1994 annual report Warren Buffett said ignore political and economic forecasts. I considered this one of the more profound pieces of investment advice and wisdom that I ever came across.

My personal anecdotal experience suggests that many investors operate under the fallacy: “my mind’s made up – don’t confuse me with the facts.” This behavior often results from only reading the headlines while skimming over the in-depth analysis that is truly needed to make a sound or prudent investing decision.

Avon’s Historical Operating Results and Price Action Since 2008 Avon’s earnings have continuously eroded and its stock price has followed. Moreover, after its dividend grew for many years, the company cut it by 18 ½% for 2012, slashed it an additional 68% in 2013 and then eliminated their dividend altogether in 2016.

This is a follow-up to my first article in a continuing series where I will be identifying and presenting dividend growth stocks for an above-average long-term total return objective.

This is the first in a continuing series where I identify and present dividend growth stocks for an above-average long-term total return objective. Throughout this series I will be illustrating that there are several prudent sources of long-term return and there is also luck or chance.

I find it serendipitous that after just completing a 19-part series on how highly valued the general market is, I get the pause that refreshes. Now please don’t read more into my words than are being offered. I still believe that the market at large is fully valued.

This is part 19 and the final part of my series covering all the various sectors reported by FactSet. However, the popular idea of saving the best for last does not apply in this instance.

As a rule, I have never been very fascinated by the Transportation Sector. This is especially true regarding airlines and air transport companies. Nevertheless, there are two airlines and two air freight carriers in the Transportation Sector that I felt comfortable featuring in this article.

Technology Services Sector covered in this article is a sector where overvaluation is rampant. In other words, this is currently a hot sector where sound valuation has been thrown out the window in favor of what I can only describe as hype and speculation.

Simply Google the phrase “what effect is Amazon having on retail” and you’ll discover a significant amount of information, articles and theories. Personally, I found the following article written by Susan Ward that articulated the sales of brick-and-mortar versus online to be quite illuminating.

Although I consider the overall stock market as represented by the S&P 500 to be overvalued, not all stocks are overvalued.

One of the main goals of this series of articles is to illustrate the significant differences between individual stocks, and the significant differences between different sectors. Therefore, from this perspective, I have been attempting to illustrate the “nature of the beast” for each of the sectors I have covered.

The Non-Energy Minerals Sector is mostly comprised of very cyclical and typically commodity-based companies. Consequently, very few companies in this sector offer the consistency and predictability that prudent and/or conservative investors might require.

A major goal of this series on sectors is to illustrate the reality that it is a market of stocks rather than a stock market. With this article I am technically covering the Industrial Services Sector.

Although many Health Technology Sector companies have significantly outperformed the market on a long-term basis, they have significantly underperformed the market since the beginning of 2015.

The Health Services Sector is one of the smallest sectors as presented by FactSet as it only contains 137 companies out of more than 19,000 in the US and Canadian universe.

I found more value in the Finance Sector than I did in any other sector that I screened. All in all, I identified 131 attractively valued companies out of the 1,888 companies in the Finance Sector.

The Energy Minerals Sector is comprised of 619 companies. And, as it is with every sector, they come in all shapes, sizes and colors. However, a common attribute that is shared by most companies in this sector is a significant amount of cyclicality in their operating results, i.e., earnings and cash flows.

My primary objective is to illustrate how different individual companies are from each other, and even how different companies operating in the same sector can be. It is a market of stocks not a stock market.

As I stated in previous articles in this series, my primary objective is to provide the reader with a clear perspective of just how different individual stocks are and how different companies operating in different sectors are.

As I stated in the introduction in Part 4 of this series, my primary objective is to provide the reader with a clear perspective of just how different individual stocks are and how different companies operating in different sectors are.

My primary objective with this series of articles (identifying attractively valued stocks in different sectors) is to provide the reader with a clear perspective of just how different individual stocks are and how different companies operating in different sectors are.

This is part 3 of a series where I have conducted a simple screening looking for value over the overall market based on industry classifications and subindustry classifications reported by FactSet Research Systems, Inc.

This is part 2 of a series where I have conducted a simple screening looking for value over the overall market based on industry classifications and subindustry classifications reported by FactSet Research Systems, Inc.

Although most investors hate bearish stock market activity, value investors – like yours truly -relish them. Moreover, bearish market activity becomes especially welcome after extended periods of high valuation like we have been experiencing since calendar year 2014. High valuations make it very difficult for value investors to find attractive common stock investments.

Nothing clears the pallet of a diehard value investor better than a good old-fashioned bear market. In calendar year 2018 – and especially December 2018 – we were given what I would call a bear market. However, not all bear markets are the same.

The primary objective of this article is to help the reader put this recent bad market in perspective and simultaneously provide lessons in valuation and how to think about stock prices. There have been many sage pieces of wisdom that have been provided to investors by investing greats.

In part 2B of my current series on building and diversifying a dividend growth portfolio I presented 20 dividend growth stocks. However, in the FAST Graph analyze out loud video I only covered 11 of the 20 companies, one for each of the major sectors. As a result, I have had requests to provide a FAST Graph analyze out loud video on the remaining 9 companies.

Introduction This current series of articles could be summarized as a review of ways to construct and diversify a common stock portfolio. In part 1 found here I discussed various viewpoints on how many stocks a portfolio should hold. In Part 2A found here I presented and discussed Peter Lynch’s 6 general categories of stocks.

On October 23, 2015 I wrote an article titled “Retirees: I Did Not Buy IBM to Sell; It’s about the Dividend Income Stupid.” At the time I published the article, I was long International Business Machine (IBM) and remain long today. With the article I attempted to illustrate why I was including IBM in retirement portfolios.

In part 1 of this series titled “How Many Stocks Should I Own?” found here, I focused primarily on how many stocks an investor might need to hold in a stock portfolio for adequate diversification. In this part 2, my focus will shift to category selections.

One of the most commonly asked questions I receive from investors is: how many stocks should I put in my portfolio? This is a widely debated subject that is most commonly referred to as concentrated versus widely diversified portfolio construction.

All investing is not done with the same objectives or goals in mind. This applies to investing in common stocks just as it does to investing in real estate, commodities, fixed income vehicles, fine art or collectibles – and any other investment that comes to mind. There are times when investors are looking for maximum total return, which is often automatically associated with buying a stock.

We remain in one of the longest bull markets in history. Generally, with bull markets stocks tend to become highly valued. Additionally, we also continue to find ourselves in a low interest rate environment based on historical standards.

One of my favorite Warren Buffett quotes is “investing is most intelligent when it is most businesslike.” The reason this quote resonates so much with me is because I believe it represents the essence of value investing.

I believe that two of the most important investing principles that prudent investors should embrace are valuation and time in the market. Consequently, the title of this article is mildly misleading, because both concepts are extremely important towards achieving long-term investing success. In other words, I believe attempting to argue the importance of one over the other is a waste of time and energy.

In my most recent article a reader made a comment where a question was asked that I believe deserved a good answer. The following excerpt of the comment really reached out to me because this person claims to have been asking this question for 5 years without receiving a good answer.

It is quite easy to get caught up, and quite hard to avoid getting caught up in a great bull market like the one we are currently in. However, it’s important to remind ourselves that: “everybody is a genius in a bull market.”

China has rapidly become the second largest economy in the world – second only to the United States, and by some calculations the largest. As a result, China also has some of the fastest-growing publicly traded companies on the planet.

Autohome (NYSE:ATHM), Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Baidu (NasdaqGS:BIDU), JD.com (NasdaqGS:JD), Weibo Corp (NasdaqGS:WB), 58.com (NYSE:WUBA), Yirendai (NYSE:YRD).

Introduction The greater fool theory is an investing metaphor that suggests that if you pay more for a stock than it is worth (intrinsic value indicates) that you are only doing this on the basis that a fool greater than you will come along and willingly pay you more.

Value investing is a proven long-term investing strategy that produces above-average results at below-average risk – if engaged in properly. However, there are four primary advantages to investing in undervalued dividend growth stocks that facilitate strong long-term performance while simultaneously lowering risk.

Owens & Minor Inc. reported earnings yesterday and simultaneously revised their 2018 earnings outlook lower. As fate would have it, I produced an article and a video where I highlighted 12 undervalued dividend growth research candidates which included Owens & Minor.

Introduction Relative to historical norms the overall stock market as measured by the S&P 500 is overvalued with the current blended P/E ratio of 19.2. Historically, the S&P 500 would be considered fairly-valued when its P/E ratio was between 15 to 16.

It almost every article I have ever published, I talk about valuation in one manner or another. So much so, that readers have dubbed me Mr. Valuation. The primary reason I am so obsessed about valuation is because I believe it is one of the most important and yet mostly ignored and overlooked concepts in the investing world.

Microsoft (MSFT) reported strong 4^th quarter and fiscal year 2018 earnings. The company’s earnings per share beat the analyst estimates by $.05 and their revenue of $30.09 billion beat analyst estimates by $860 million. All in all, it was a great quarter and investors initially responded positively in after-hours trading.

At the request of one of our subscribers to our YouTube channel I offer the following analyze out loud video on the growth stock Electronic Arts, Inc (EA). In the long run, earnings determine market price and the rate of change of earnings growth will determine a company’s valuation past, present and future.

Coke is one of the most, if not the most, recognized brands in the world. As a stock, The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is a blue-chip Dividend Aristocrat that has increased its dividend for 56 consecutive years. The company is A+ rated by S&P Capital IQ, offers a current dividend yield of 3.6% and a market cap of more than $184 billion. Even though nothing that I’ve said so far is likely to be news to most people, there is a reason for me mentioning these things.

PepsiCo (PEP) is a Dividend Aristocrat, Champion and blue-chip stalwart that has increased its dividend for 46 consecutive years. Therefore, it should be no surprise that just as we saw with Procter & Gamble in part 5, this blue-chip stalwart has traditionally commanded a higher valuation (earnings multiple) than the average stock.

To put Procter & Gamble’s current valuation into perspective, this blue-chip can be purchased today with a 3.7% current dividend yield which is hovering around the highest it has been over the past two decades. Furthermore, Procter & Gamble appears attractively valued over virtually every rational valuation metric that prudent value investors might consider.

This is the fourth of what will be a long-running series highlighting dividend growth stocks that have technically entered bear market territory. Many investors define a bear market as when prices fall at least 20%. After coming out of the true bear market inspired by the Great Recession, stocks have generally been enjoying a very strong and long-lasting bull market.

Regular readers of my work will attest to the fact that I am an avid proponent of valuation. So much so, that I cannot recall writing an article where I didn’t discuss the importance of only investing in a stock when it was fairly-valued, or better yet – undervalued.

In part 1 found here of this multi-part series I discussed how several blue-chip dividend growth stocks have already entered a bear market. Therefore, I thought it would be helpful to provide FAST Graphs analyze out loud videos on several dividend growth stocks that have corrected from high valuation levels to more reasonable levels.

For quite some time I have been complaining that most best-of-breed dividend growth stocks were overvalued. Frankly, for the most part I continue to hold that opinion. On the other hand, I am also starting to see what I’ll call a stealth bear market for many dividend growth stocks.

Overview AAA rated Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has produced one of the most impeccable and consistent long-term records of fundamental results and growth. No matter whether you are measuring earnings, cash flows or dividends, you will be hard-pressed to find any company in any industry with a more consistent and complete record of operating excellence...

This is the fifth of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article, I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates with moderate to higher yields in addition to the initial 40 that I presented...

This is the fourth of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article, I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates with moderate to higher yields...

This is the third of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates with moderate to higher yields in addition to the initial 20 that I presented...

This is the second of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates.

The Great Recession of 2008 – which ended in the spring of 2009 – brought on one of the greatest and longest bull markets in modern history. For true value-oriented dividend growth investors, the recession created a virtual cornucopia of excellent dividend growth stock investment opportunities that existed until the end of August 2013.

Over the last couple of years lithium producers and miners have enjoyed a parabolic jump in their stock prices and market caps. As I will later illustrate, much of the gains for lithium related companies have come as a result of the “hype” surrounding electric automobile development.

Introduction Walmart’s stock price took a bath early last week, and there are a lot of opinions regarding where the stock price now sits. The catalyst was their 4th quarter and fiscal year-end 2018 annual report (note: Walmart has a January 31 fiscal year end).

There is the old adage: “you can’t teach an old dog new tricks.” Well, I have been a “card-carrying” and fully committed value investor for more than 45 years now. I think that qualifies me as an “old” value investing dog.

In his best-selling book “One up on Wall Street” Peter Lynch included this subtitle on his cover: “How to use what you already know to make money in the stock market.” And later in the book he talks about “the power of common knowledge.” Stating it over simplistically, Peter Lynch often talked about getting his best ideas from observing his family’s shopping habits.

Recently, I have had several requests to write an article about Owens & Minor Inc (OMI). I had not looked at this company in a while, and boy oh, boy, was I surprised at what I found.

For many years now, investing in healthcare related stocks has presented me with a conundrum of sorts. Demographic forces, primarily the graying of America (and the world for that matter), suggests powerful future growth potential and demand for healthcare related products and services. On the other hand, healthcare and its costs have long been a political hotbed.

Every year I take the holidays off in order to reflect on what I have accomplished for the year, but more importantly, to think deeply about and contemplate what I might do better in the upcoming New Year. This process has provided me with numerous inspirations over the years, and this particular year was no exception.

As a value investor, I am totally cognizant of the reality that attractively valued bargains are hard to find in a strong bull market. Moreover, as an experienced value investor I clearly understand that low valuations in a raging bull market are usually associated with issues and challenges sometimes real, sometimes imaginary. The key to success is to identify when current problems are temporary, thereby creating long-term opportunity.

Aflac (AFL) is a Dividend Aristocrat that has increased its dividend for 35 consecutive years. However, it is only one of seven Dividend Aristocrats that I consider attractively valued in light of the current bull market. Therefore, this will be the first in a series of seven articles where I will cover these seven attractively valued Dividend Aristocrats.

This article is an update to my original article on Celgene (CELG) published on June 22, 2017. Celgene reported their financial results yesterday October 26, 2017, and although the quarter was good, lowered guidance crushed the stock price. In my opinion, some of the sag in price was justified, but for the most part an overreaction.

This is the final installment of the five-part series where I examined the past operating histories and valuations of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks. With this 5 Part series I attempted to cover the 30 Dow stocks in order of highest valuations to lowest.

Thus far, with the first 3 parts of this five-part series, we’ve examined 60% (18 of 30) of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. What we found so far were that the majority of these constituents are currently overvalued or at least fully valued. Finally, with this Part 4, we will examine 6 additional Dow constituents that appear fairly valued with blended P/E ratios of 14-16.

In Part 1 and Part 2 of this series I covered 12 of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks that I considered the most expensive of the index. With this part 3 I will be looking at 6 additional Dow stocks that for the most part I would consider fully valued to only moderately overvalued.

In part 1 of this five-part series, I covered what I considered the 6 most expensive stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index of 30 stocks. With this part 2, I’m going to cover 6 additional Dow stocks that I consider overvalued currently. So far, these two articles represent approximately 40% of the stocks in the Dow Jones that appear overvalued.

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average first hit 20,000 in January of this year it generated quite a buzz within the financial community. Since January the Dow Jones Index has continued to rise and currently is over 22,700. However, the Dow Jones is not the only market index that is currently sitting at or near all-time highs. The broader S&P 500 index is also at a historic peak.

Just as it always does, Apple’s (AAPL) Keynote event generated quite a buzz. In addition to announcing several new products and upgrades, this year’s event inaugurated the Steve Jobs Theater at Apple Park. And as usual, reactions to the presentation have been quite strong.

Over my lifetime I have invested in many different things. In the process of doing that, I have learned that there are really only two types of investors. As an investor, you are either active or passive. Being active implies directly managing or being in control of your investment.

The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) is a “Dividend Contender” that has increased its dividend for 20 consecutive years. After being overvalued for most of fiscal year 2017 (fiscal year ends in April) the company has since fallen into attractive valuation territory.

This is the fourth in a series of articles where I will cover popular and/or high profile stocks. The primary objective of this series will be to put a spotlight on the importance of forecasting future growth prior to making an investment decision.

This is the third in a series of articles where I will cover popular and/or high profile stocks. The primary objective of this series will be to put a spotlight on the importance of forecasting future growth prior to making an investment decision.

This is the second in a series of articles where I will cover popular and/or high profile stocks. The primary objective of this series will be to put a spotlight on the importance of forecasting future growth prior to making an investment decision. 

This will be the first in a series of articles where I will cover popular and/or high profile stocks. The primary objective of this series will be to put a spotlight on the importance of forecasting future growth prior to making an investment decision.

I believe, and there is plenty of evidence to back my belief, that current market conditions are at an extreme. Although rare, it’s not unusual for aberrant market action to occur. Warren Buffett once said: “The fact that people will be full of greed, fear or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable.”

Warren Buffett has long been considered the consummate value investor. His penchant for value investing is generally attributed to his relationship with the renowned father of value investing Ben Graham. However, what is often overlooked is the influence that partner Charlie Munger brought to Warren Buffett’s investing philosophy.

Much of my dividend growth investing is currently focused on looking for high quality dividend growth stocks that are yielding 3% or better. The reason is quite simple. I am managing dividend growth portfolios for clients that are retired and require at least a yield of 3% or better in order to live on.

I have had several readers request that I do an article on AT&T (T). Since the company has just reported earnings, which have thus far received a strong and positive reaction from Wall Street, I thought now would be a good time.

Most investors suffer from what I believe is an unhealthy (unprofitable) obsession with the stock market. Financial writers and professional investors never tire about offering up their opinion on what the market will do next – especially short term. Individual investors also are deeply concerned with how the markets are doing on a daily basis. To me this only makes sense if you actually own the “stock market” i.e., an index fund.

Amazon: the Valuation Dark Side It is no secret that Amazon (AMZN) has been a disruptive force, especially relating to the retail sector. On the other hand, the company is also an enigma to the value focused fundamental investor such as yours truly.

One of the most hotly contested debates in finance is the argument over which is better – active or passive investing. Moreover, this debate has spurred numerous academic studies that claim to identify whether passive outperforms active investing or vice versa.

My investing career officially started in 1970. However, for several years prior to that time I was an avid and interested student of common stock investing. My initial lessons were taught by studying the behavior and practices of the most renowned stock investors.

Introduction Finding attractive investments in the dividend growth space has become a real challenge in today’s overheated market. This is especially true if you limit yourself to looking in the obvious places. Simply stated, you won’t find any bargains today in the Procter & Gambles, Johnson & Johnsons and Coca-Colas.

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) currently offers a dividend yield in excess of 3%. Moreover, it is also available at a valuation that is slightly below historical norms. The company has provided a stable and growing dividend since it went public in 1999.

The threat of rising interest rates is all the rage in financial circles today. However, the seminal question is: How real is the threat, and how much impact will rising rates have on stock prices and investor performance?

Introduction According to an article in Quartz today, March 9, 2017, marks the 8th birthday of the US bull market which started on March 9, 2009. According to the article, this is the 2nd longest and 4th strongest bull market in history for the S&P 500.

j2 Global (JCOM) was founded in 1995 and went public in 1999. During their first few years as a public company, j2 Global generated operating losses; however, since 2002 the company has strung together an impressive record of rapid growth.

The 5 MLPs covered in this article offer yields ranging from 5.7% to 10.7%. Additionally, each of these MLPs appears reasonably valued given their high yields and prospects for growth. However, two of these MLPs are currently in the process of merging.

When investing for dividend growth there are several key attributes that I consider crucial for long-term success.

This article is presented as an update to an article I published on Flowers Foods (FLO) on September 22, 2016. Later in this article I will provide a direct link to the original.

Over the last several weeks stock price volatility has increased significantly above norms. All of a sudden it is not uncommon to see stock prices moving 5%, 10% or more in a single trading day.

Financial metrics such as P/E ratios, price to cash flow ratios, PEG ratios, price to sales ratios, price to book value, and many others, should be thought of as tools in the investor’s toolbox.

Recently, I have been engaged in rather intense discussions regarding the validity of P/E ratios versus PEG ratios as proper or appropriate valuation metrics. I generally find these types of debates befuddling for a couple of reasons.

Investing in great companies sits at the core of my investment philosophy. In this regard, I reject the idea that I invest in the stock market. To me, the stock market is simply the store I shop in to purchase interests in fine businesses.

I never invest in a common stock without a clear expectation of the future returns that it can generate for me. Consequently, I consider this one of the most important steps in my research and due diligence process.