The Fed’s move towards more restrictive policy has rattled bonds and put equities on the brink of a bear market. But what is priced in and where do we go from here? In this month’s webinar, we discuss equity and fixed income valuations and examine how Innovator ETFs can help advisors hedge market risk and capitalize on opportunities.
In this session, we look back on the recent volatility the municipal market has experienced and discuss actionable items advisors can take as a result of the volatility.
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
It’s easy to be carried away: Top banking regulators are hungry for the efficiency, profitability and better service that pan-European banks could deliver.
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
The varied responses of individual countries to global inflationary pressures have contributed to elevated real-rate differentials between developed and emerging markets.
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
Bonds have been whispering in the ears of stock investors all year. Now they’re starting to shout.
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
Reg BI turns two on June 30th. It was supposed to help investors better understand how advisors and brokers differ and have BDs meet a “best interest” standard based on fiduciary principles. It turns out that Reg BI is doing the opposite.
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
Here’s how to position yourself for a lifetime of relationships by creating better touchpoints with a client’s family.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
Given year-to-date fixed income returns, one would be forgiven if they never wanted to own the asset class again. Such a view, however, could prove costly as, for the first time in a year, areas of the market are starting to look attractive.
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth.
Stocks struggled again this past week with the S&P 500 falling -5.79% for the week and the S&P 500 has now lost ground in 10 of the last 11 weeks, falling -19.16%, which is very unusual.
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
In 2003, at age 19, Elizabeth Holmes founded Theranos, and it became a $10 billion company by 2014. But it was a fraud. Aspects of target date funds mirror the Holmes story.
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
For all the talk of bear markets and a possible recession, investors continue to pile into American equities.
Since the start of 2019, investors have plowed more than $300 billion into environmental, social and governance (ESG)-themed exchange traded funds.
The equity-linked debt of some of the pandemic’s darlings has plunged to record lows and is now considered distressed.
Investors are terrified.
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
It’s too soon to call an end to America’s worst bond-market collapse in at least half a century.
A key source of US economic growth this year -- consumer spending -- is showing signs of losing steam, even before Wednesday’s round of Federal Reserve rate hikes kick in.
Despite a lot of confident predictions, nobody knows what will happen at the Federal Reserve Wednesday, never mind what the impact will be on markets.
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
The hottest US inflation in four decades will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively this year, and a recession may not be far behind.
Hedge funds eager to prove that short-selling is a legitimate ESG strategy just got some fresh material to back their case.
We are treating this column like a running conversation with the reader.
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
Those who are familiar with my articles know that I see market crashes in stocks and bonds occurring in this decade, combined with serious inflation. Readers ask how I recommend protecting. This is it.
Stanley Druckenmiller has a warning for Wall Street: The sharp decline in the stock market isn’t over just yet.
I bought an apartment last year and if I were buying today, I wouldn't be able to afford it.
It started with bonds. Now even collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) come in green.
Mohamed El-Erian, who almost a year ago accurately forecast that elevated US inflation would be persistent, says it hasn’t peaked.
A wild year on Wall Street has traders fretting one of two extreme scenarios will engulf the $23 trillion Treasury market ahead: Either a fresh bond selloff thanks to red-hot inflation -- or a sustained rally on mounting recession risk that sends yields back toward historic lows.
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
The ECB and the Fed both need to quickly normalize policy from the emergency settings adopted when the pandemic first hit.
Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.
Gold may be heading for another rally, with warnings over a global economic slowdown paving the way for a fresh push toward $2,000 an ounce.
U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.
Thoughts on recent market volatility and implications for investors from Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover.
Investors are shifting their focus from runaway inflation to slowing global growth as central banks hike rates to tame price pressures.
I’m going to review the research on safe-spending rates and then critique common methods of risk mitigation. I’ll offer the practical methods to reduce sequence-of-return risk that I suggest to my clients.
Will the Fed pause its rate hikes as markets correct?
Homeowners should take a total-balance-sheet view when evaluating options for their mortgage.
Is a “lost decade” ahead for markets?
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
Is long-term strategic investing out the window? To earn returns in today’s market, you need a team that will rethink your investment philosophy and strategy.
One of the most difficult challenges in finance is how to price crypto assets. Bonds pay interest. Stocks pay dividends. What exactly do crypto assets pay?
We strongly believe that the traditional benchmark-led approach to investing in emerging market debt can be far from optimal.
Virtual reality is not reality!
The first half of the year has so far been challenging for investors in municipal bonds.
A fascinating aspect of the financial markets is that long-term returns are driven almost entirely by math, while short-term returns are driven almost entirely by psychology.
Municipal bonds acquired at too deep a discount could be subject to an additional tax, known as the de minimis tax, which would take a bite out of the after-tax return.
Markets flailed in May, seeking certainty amid conflicting signals.
There are eight global mountaintops scaling 26,000 feet or higher, including Mt. Everest, the most famous of them all.
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 0.01% after a loss of 8.8% in April. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
Despite the massive selloff in equities this year and persistently high inflation, Dawn Fitzpatrick isn’t worried about a recession in the immediate future.
Has the global investment environment which we have grown accustomed to over the past few decades fundamentally changed?
Treasuries extended their slump in New York, driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up by the most in more than three weeks, as renewed inflation concerns and economic data supported expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes in coming months.
The bear has ended a long hibernation.
Our fiscal deficit, as measured by the debt-to-GDP ratio, has grown to levels that could impede growth, as predicted by financial theory and confirmed by empirical evidence. Moreover, new research shows that our burgeoning deficit could increase risk premiums for both stocks and bonds.
Summer is right around the corner, and traditionally that’s when families pack their bags and get away for a well-deserved vacation. Since this is the first summer travel season in three years that feels like the before times, airlines and airports are bracing for what is expected to be a particularly busy three months.
High inflation and the consequences of attempts to curb it are a top concern for today’s investors.
For investors wondering where to store cash, comparing the maturity profiles on Treasuries with their “risk of loss” history can help reveal where value might lie within shorter maturities.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission is taking its biggest step yet to stop money managers from misleading investors when they claim their funds are focused on environmental, social or governance issues.
Cryptocurrencies are the exact opposite of a prudent investment: They’re volatile, have little practical use beyond speculation and crime, often get lost or stolen, and lack the real-world cash flows that underpin the values of stocks and bonds.
The Federal Reserve's resolve to fight inflation could be tested even before a recession hits by dislocations in certain corners of the market that are not well understood. This is about more than just a bear market in stocks or an implosion in cryptocurrencies. Rather, this is about the “plumbing” that keeps markets running smoothly and facilitates the flow of money in and out of the financial system.
Investors’ expectations that interest rates will not rise much may be very misguided.
The outlook for credit amid rising inflation, monetary tightening, and war in Europe.
With the Federal Reserve releasing minutes from its latest meeting on Wednesday, traders are looking for further details on the plans to let billions of dollars worth of bonds to mature each month without replacing them.
Recent warnings from corporate executives and rapidly declining regional manufacturing surveys make me wonder if a recession has already started.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, can help protect against inflation over the long run, but in the short term their performance may be dictated more by price declines in the secondary market.
In the face of bad news, what, if anything, should you do to adjust your long-term portfolio management strategy?
Municipal Bonds
Tackling restrictive Fed policy, inflation and a recessionary sentiment with Defined Outcome ETFs
The Fed’s move towards more restrictive policy has rattled bonds and put equities on the brink of a bear market. But what is priced in and where do we go from here? In this month’s webinar, we discuss equity and fixed income valuations and examine how Innovator ETFs can help advisors hedge market risk and capitalize on opportunities.
Volatility and Current Opportunities in Municipals
In this session, we look back on the recent volatility the municipal market has experienced and discuss actionable items advisors can take as a result of the volatility.
Don't Fight the Trend
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
High-Yielding High-Quality Dividend Growth Stock Benefiting from Rising Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
More “Stagflation-Lite”, Moderately Positive On Equities Ex Europe, Still Negative On Global Bonds
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
Re-discovering the Market’s Sweet Spot
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
Russia Slips Into Historic Default as Sanctions Muddy Next Steps
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
A Deep Analytic Perspective of the 2022 Market Correction
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
Should European Banking Really Be More Like US Banking?
It’s easy to be carried away: Top banking regulators are hungry for the efficiency, profitability and better service that pan-European banks could deliver.
Market Is Shredding All the Time-Tested Ways to Chart Its Course
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 16: Fed Watch: A Deep Dive into 75
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
Bond Traders Are Reading the Federal Reserve Wrong Again
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Taking Stock: Q3 2022 Equity Market Outlook
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
Assessing Inflation’s Effects Across Emerging Markets
The varied responses of individual countries to global inflationary pressures have contributed to elevated real-rate differentials between developed and emerging markets.
Stocks Sniffing A Bear Market Rally
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
Wall Street Faces Billion-Dollar Losses on Sinking Buyout Debt
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
Stocks Are Losing the Race With Bonds in Era of Tightening Fed
Bonds have been whispering in the ears of stock investors all year. Now they’re starting to shout.
Inflation Ate Your Free Lunch, But You’re Still Better Off
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
Reg BI’s Unhappy Second Birthday
Reg BI turns two on June 30th. It was supposed to help investors better understand how advisors and brokers differ and have BDs meet a “best interest” standard based on fiduciary principles. It turns out that Reg BI is doing the opposite.
Respect the Bear
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
Five Touchpoints to Build Family Relationships
Here’s how to position yourself for a lifetime of relationships by creating better touchpoints with a client’s family.
Recession Warnings Multiply; Exxon Signs Gas Deal: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
The Fixed Income Water is Getting Warmer
Given year-to-date fixed income returns, one would be forgiven if they never wanted to own the asset class again. Such a view, however, could prove costly as, for the first time in a year, areas of the market are starting to look attractive.
The Fed Capitulates
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth.
DMA Table Still Negative. But Erlanger Options Rank Showing Extreme Short Selling Indicating A Bounce In The Offing
Stocks struggled again this past week with the S&P 500 falling -5.79% for the week and the S&P 500 has now lost ground in 10 of the last 11 weeks, falling -19.16%, which is very unusual.
Gold Has Been One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022 (So Far)
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
CB LEI: Falls Again in May
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
Elizabeth Holmes’ Lesson for Target-Date Funds
In 2003, at age 19, Elizabeth Holmes founded Theranos, and it became a $10 billion company by 2014. But it was a fraud. Aspects of target date funds mirror the Holmes story.
World’s Central Banks Unleash Most Hawkish Campaign Since 1980s
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
For All Their Worries, Investors Are Piling Into US Stocks
For all the talk of bear markets and a possible recession, investors continue to pile into American equities.
ESG Investment Cools as the Sector’s Notoriety Grows
Since the start of 2019, investors have plowed more than $300 billion into environmental, social and governance (ESG)-themed exchange traded funds.
Tech Bear Market’s Latest Casualty Is Pandemic-Era Convertible Debt
The equity-linked debt of some of the pandemic’s darlings has plunged to record lows and is now considered distressed.
Investors Are Terrified, So Why Aren’t They Selling?
Investors are terrified.
Crypto Market Outlook: Risk-Off
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
Bond Market Losses Just Beginning as Fed Sets Path to 4% Yields
It’s too soon to call an end to America’s worst bond-market collapse in at least half a century.
Consumer Spending Is Running Out Of Steam and the Market Isn’t Ready For It
A key source of US economic growth this year -- consumer spending -- is showing signs of losing steam, even before Wednesday’s round of Federal Reserve rate hikes kick in.
Big Money in Stock Market Is In Mad Dash to Get Out of Fed’s Way
Despite a lot of confident predictions, nobody knows what will happen at the Federal Reserve Wednesday, never mind what the impact will be on markets.
Signs Point to Rising Recession Risk
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Inflation Risk: Persistent or Transitory is the Wrong Question
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
The Fed Has No Choice But to Let This Tantrum Rip
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
Global Stock Rout Prompts Call for Back-to-Basics Investing
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
Bond Yields, Dollar Surge With Fed Bets as Recession Risk Grows
The hottest US inflation in four decades will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively this year, and a recession may not be far behind.
Hedge Funds Chasing ESG Billions Get Help From Researchers
Hedge funds eager to prove that short-selling is a legitimate ESG strategy just got some fresh material to back their case.
Stocks and Bonds Remain Weak On DMA Table, New Buy Salesforce.com Inc (CRM)
We are treating this column like a running conversation with the reader.
A Trillion Here, a Trillion There…
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
How I Protect Against the Coming Market Crash
Those who are familiar with my articles know that I see market crashes in stocks and bonds occurring in this decade, combined with serious inflation. Readers ask how I recommend protecting. This is it.
Druckenmiller Warns ‘Bear Market Has a Ways to Run’ as Fed Hikes Rates
Stanley Druckenmiller has a warning for Wall Street: The sharp decline in the stock market isn’t over just yet.
Waiting for Mortgage Rates to Fall? Don't Hold Your Breath.
I bought an apartment last year and if I were buying today, I wouldn't be able to afford it.
Does This CDO Come in Green? With ESG Everywhere, Buyers Beware
It started with bonds. Now even collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) come in green.
El-Erian Warns Inflation Has Yet to Peak as Energy Prices Rise
Mohamed El-Erian, who almost a year ago accurately forecast that elevated US inflation would be persistent, says it hasn’t peaked.
‘Train Wreck’ Economy or Red-Hot Inflation Is Big New Bond Call
A wild year on Wall Street has traders fretting one of two extreme scenarios will engulf the $23 trillion Treasury market ahead: Either a fresh bond selloff thanks to red-hot inflation -- or a sustained rally on mounting recession risk that sends yields back toward historic lows.
Gundlach: Oil Could Hit $150 This Summer
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
Markets Primed To Be Hawkish On Rates
The ECB and the Fed both need to quickly normalize policy from the emergency settings adopted when the pandemic first hit.
Is Gold the Answer?
Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.
Gold’s Haven Appeal Burnished by Drumbeat of Growth Warnings
Gold may be heading for another rally, with warnings over a global economic slowdown paving the way for a fresh push toward $2,000 an ounce.
Schwab Market Update: Stocks Lower as Volatility Continues
U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.
Quick Thoughts: Navigating Uncertainty In A Rapidly Changing World
Thoughts on recent market volatility and implications for investors from Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover.
Will Corporate Credits Crack as Growth Slows?
Investors are shifting their focus from runaway inflation to slowing global growth as central banks hike rates to tame price pressures.
Real-Life Strategies to Mitigate Sequence-of-Return Risk
I’m going to review the research on safe-spending rates and then critique common methods of risk mitigation. I’ll offer the practical methods to reduce sequence-of-return risk that I suggest to my clients.
Fed Pause? Markets Hope So, But Likely Not Yet.
Will the Fed pause its rate hikes as markets correct?
Your Mortgage is Not a Hedge Against Inflation
Homeowners should take a total-balance-sheet view when evaluating options for their mortgage.
A “Lost Decade” Ahead For Markets?
Is a “lost decade” ahead for markets?
FOMC Inflation Test Coming
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
Staying the Course No Longer Works?
Is long-term strategic investing out the window? To earn returns in today’s market, you need a team that will rethink your investment philosophy and strategy.
Crypto’s Value Comes From Crypto’s Volatility
One of the most difficult challenges in finance is how to price crypto assets. Bonds pay interest. Stocks pay dividends. What exactly do crypto assets pay?
No Stone Unturned
We strongly believe that the traditional benchmark-led approach to investing in emerging market debt can be far from optimal.
Stock Market Metaverse
Virtual reality is not reality!
Making The Case for Municipal Bonds Despite Recent Volatility
The first half of the year has so far been challenging for investors in municipal bonds.
Making Friends with Bears Through Math
A fascinating aspect of the financial markets is that long-term returns are driven almost entirely by math, while short-term returns are driven almost entirely by psychology.
Think Twice Before Buying a Muni Below Par
Municipal bonds acquired at too deep a discount could be subject to an additional tax, known as the de minimis tax, which would take a bite out of the after-tax return.
Markets Seek Direction, Hope For Soft Landing
Markets flailed in May, seeking certainty amid conflicting signals.
The Death Zone
There are eight global mountaintops scaling 26,000 feet or higher, including Mt. Everest, the most famous of them all.
Moving Averages: S&P Inched Up in May
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 0.01% after a loss of 8.8% in April. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
Soros’s Money Manager Warns Recession ‘Inevitable’ But Market Timing Is Off
Despite the massive selloff in equities this year and persistently high inflation, Dawn Fitzpatrick isn’t worried about a recession in the immediate future.
It’s the End of the World As We Know It…
Has the global investment environment which we have grown accustomed to over the past few decades fundamentally changed?
Treasuries Slide as Inflation Concerns Keep Rate-Hike Bets Alive
Treasuries extended their slump in New York, driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up by the most in more than three weeks, as renewed inflation concerns and economic data supported expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes in coming months.
The Mother Of All Bear Markets
The bear has ended a long hibernation.
The Growing Threat Posed by the Federal Deficit
Our fiscal deficit, as measured by the debt-to-GDP ratio, has grown to levels that could impede growth, as predicted by financial theory and confirmed by empirical evidence. Moreover, new research shows that our burgeoning deficit could increase risk premiums for both stocks and bonds.
3 Airline Stocks to Consider as We Head into the Busy Summer Travel Season
Summer is right around the corner, and traditionally that’s when families pack their bags and get away for a well-deserved vacation. Since this is the first summer travel season in three years that feels like the before times, airlines and airports are bracing for what is expected to be a particularly busy three months.
Inflation: Higher but Not Forever
High inflation and the consequences of attempts to curb it are a top concern for today’s investors.
Storing Cash
For investors wondering where to store cash, comparing the maturity profiles on Treasuries with their “risk of loss” history can help reveal where value might lie within shorter maturities.
SEC to Crack Down on Misleading ESG Claims With Fund Rules
The US Securities and Exchange Commission is taking its biggest step yet to stop money managers from misleading investors when they claim their funds are focused on environmental, social or governance issues.
Crypto in Retirement Accounts? Are You Kidding?
Cryptocurrencies are the exact opposite of a prudent investment: They’re volatile, have little practical use beyond speculation and crime, often get lost or stolen, and lack the real-world cash flows that underpin the values of stocks and bonds.
The Federal Reserve's Next Act Will Test Market Stability
The Federal Reserve's resolve to fight inflation could be tested even before a recession hits by dislocations in certain corners of the market that are not well understood. This is about more than just a bear market in stocks or an implosion in cryptocurrencies. Rather, this is about the “plumbing” that keeps markets running smoothly and facilitates the flow of money in and out of the financial system.
On My Mind: Overdue Reality Check for Fed and Markets Has Barely Begun
Investors’ expectations that interest rates will not rise much may be very misguided.
Despite the Gray Mood, Skies Are Only Partly Cloudy
The outlook for credit amid rising inflation, monetary tightening, and war in Europe.
Fed’s Balance-Sheet Unwind Puts Treasuries on ‘Uncertain’ Path
With the Federal Reserve releasing minutes from its latest meeting on Wednesday, traders are looking for further details on the plans to let billions of dollars worth of bonds to mature each month without replacing them.
Snap Goes the Economy
Recent warnings from corporate executives and rapidly declining regional manufacturing surveys make me wonder if a recession has already started.
Are TIPS Worth Considering Now?
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, can help protect against inflation over the long run, but in the short term their performance may be dictated more by price declines in the secondary market.
In Volatile Markets, Patience is Your Friend
In the face of bad news, what, if anything, should you do to adjust your long-term portfolio management strategy?