Commentary

You Can Run, But You Can’t Hedge

Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.

Commentary

Aim to Keep Risk Modest and Quality High

In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and how investors can protect their portfolios against the potential for an environment of prolonged and heighted volatility.

Commentary

Equity Market Outlook

U.S. policy uncertainty and the ebbs and flows of AI advancement are likely to stoke continued volatility in the world’s stock markets.

Commentary

Investing Alongside Change

Risk-assets struggled amidst extremely volatile price action as investors weighed the probabilities of tariffs hitting profits and valuations.

Commentary

2025 Muni Outlook: Stay Invested and Remain Nimble

Less favorable seasonal technicals, increased focus on municipal-specific policy risks, and severe volatility spurred by higher-than-anticipated tariff increases weighed heavily
on sentiment and resulted in deeply negative total returns and significant underperformance versus Treasuries in March and early April.

Commentary

Volatility Brings Changes to Market Leadership

How recent market volatility has contributed to a sharp reversal in global equities.

Commentary

How To Invest with Clarity Through Market Volatility

One of the textbook drivers of alpha is an information edge. Having more information, advanced ways to use that information, and the ability to react to it before anyone else has been a massive advantage throughout the history of markets.

Commentary

Rebuilding Resilience in 60/40 Portfolios

The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.

Commentary

Q4 Company Earnings Reveal Key Areas of U.S. Equity Exceptionalism

Q4 company earnings offered a lot to cheer at the start of the year, even as U.S. stocks contended with bouts of volatility.

Commentary

Rates Still a Risk for Stocks

Russ Koesterich discusses the risk of higher interest rates and the potential impact (both positive and negative) such a move could have on markets.

Commentary

What Scares the S&P 500?

In the second half of 2024 the risk premia associated with inflation releases declined relative to labor market data as the Fed shifted focus toward labor market and away from inflation risk. With elevated S&P 500 Index concentration and the market leadership of the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, some single company earnings (NVIDIA) have been rising risk events for the entire index.

Commentary

Systematic Equity Outlook: Trading Policy Uncertainty

The second Trump presidency marks a new regime for government policy, with a range of potential macroeconomic and market implications.

Commentary

Navigating the (New) Conundrum

At the same time, the Fed has mostly ignored the impact of easy financial conditions—the combination of stock, bond, and credit conditions—offsetting increases in interest rates by bolstering wealth and confidence.

Commentary

AI Mega Force Could Be Accelerating

Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.

Commentary

Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge

In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.