The yield on the 10-year note ended February 3, 2023 at 3.53%, the two-year note ended at 4.30%, and the 30-year at 3.63%.
The April Live Cattle futures, LCJ23, rallied as traders digested the United States Department of Agricultures (USDA) Cattle inventory report.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of non-farm employment. January saw a 517K increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.4%. The Investing.com forecast was for 185K jobs gained.
Europe’s looming ban on almost all Russian fuel is sparking a scramble for alternatives, not least from Middle Eastern petrostates.
As expected and discussed in the January Macro Tides the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped below 7.0% falling to 6.5% from 7.1% in November.
On Monday, Germany’s GDP print for the final quarter of 2022 came out below expectations of 0.0% by -2%.
As of January 31, 2023, the 10-year note was 300 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020.
The January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 46.9, up 0.7 from the final December figure, and marginally better than the Investing.com forecast of 46.8. However, this marks the third consecutive month in contraction territory. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
It is hard to reconcile the jubilant mood of many business leaders with the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
As of January 30, the price of regular and premium gas were up 7 and 8 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.89 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.09. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.90 and is down 4.6% from last week.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said persistently weak inflation is likely to return as a long-term challenge for the economy and policymakers once pandemic-era distortions behind the recent surge subside and prices cool.
U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
Investors have little confidence in US stocks even after this month’s surge, fearing weak corporate earnings could drag them back down.
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Here are six steps to implement multiple niches, bring in new clients, and accelerate their growth goals.
For the first time, the world invested as much money into replacing fossil fuels as it spent on producing oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF.
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
Six Wall Street banks are being pressed by a group of shareholders to move faster on reducing their financing of fossil fuels to meet global climate goals.
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
We got consumer price reports for many European countries this week.
Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud unit will spend $35 billion on new data centers in Virginia by 2040, underscoring its determination to stay ahead of rivals Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
We call them narratives, memes, or mind viruses.
Month-over-month nominal sales in November was down 1.15% and up 6.02% YoY. Real retail sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted CPI, decreased by 1.07% and was down 0.38% YoY.
Oil prices continue to struggle as recession fears have curtailed the market is recent months.
It is a challenge to design a website that addresses the needs and questions of multiple client types.
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
As we start the year 2023, we are reminded of the profound poetry from the band, Echosmith, in the song, “Cool Kids.” It can teach us about what it takes to succeed in long-duration common stock investing currently.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Each year presents its own challenges, and 2023 is no exception, with economic uncertainty riding high, geopolitical tensions rising and the policy landscape shifting.
In 2022, inflation and interest rates both rose substantially, creating the near-term potential for a recession.
U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.
U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.
US inflation continued to slow in December, adding to evidence price pressures have peaked and putting the Federal Reserve on track to again slow the pace of interest-rate hikes.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 6.45%, down from 7.11% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 5.71%, down from 5.96% the previous month.
2023 may be another difficult year for investors who hope to relive the speculative markets of 2020 and 2021.
With winter not fully upon us, European industrial production has benefitted from lower energy prices.
The question that obsessed financial markets last year was when and where US inflation would peak. The 2023 version will likely be how far, and how fast, it comes down.
Investors are bracing for a miserable stretch of earnings reports that will likely extend the dominance of value shares as Corporate America grapples with high inflation and rising borrowing costs, the latest MLIV Pulse survey shows.
When the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, triggering the largest-ever oil spill in the US, all eyes turned to BP Plc, the British company behind the drilling. But BP wasn’t alone in the project.
Commodities may seem like just another one of the bunch, but these products offer a unique way to invest your money in the market.
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
An era of low inflation and low interest rates has ended.
Welcome to 2023. It’s Forecast Season on Wall Street, the time when everyone tells us what to expect for the new year. Do they really know? Of course not. Forecasters don’t know, investors know they don’t know, yet we all go through this exercise anyway.
Investors who use a 60/40 portfolio had a rough year. In the past, putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds has often helped investors hedge against losses in either asset class. But 2022 had other ideas.
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 30, 2022 close.
The March contract for the Bloomberg Commodity Index (ERH23) was down for the third consecutive day on Thursday. Since ending 2022 at 112.80, the contract is down 5.03 at 107.77.
Optimists were still to be found in the world of US exchange-traded funds, where more than 400 new ETFs were launched despite a harsh bear market. Funds took in more than half a trillion dollars as more investors learned to embrace their easier-to-trade and tax-friendly structure.
Just recently, James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, suggested the central bank might need to employ the “7% solution” to ensure the complete destruction of inflation.
The U.S. economy continually showed its resiliency through a challenging year.
The US stock market will bottom by the middle of 2023 as the Federal Reserve tamps down inflation without causing anything worse than a “mild” economic recession, according to Byron Wien’s annual list of surprises.
U.S. equities are solidly higher in afternoon action, paring some of the losses that have plagued the start of 2023.
2022 wasn’t the easiest of years to handle for investors.
US Treasuries headed for the strongest start to a year in more than two decades as investors scooped up government debt on wagers the Federal Reserve will further slow its pace of rate hikes as inflation cools.
In some ways, the 2023 economic outlook for the US is locked in. The Federal Reserve’s goal is to push the rate of inflation back down to 2% over the next few years.
Nikko Asset Management’s Global Investment Committee recently got together to discus their views heading into 2023.
U.S. equities closed out 2022 in the red, and all three major indexes registered solid losses on a yearly basis. The stock market posted its worst yearly decline since 2008.
Russia’s Finance Ministry doubled the amount of Chinese yuan and gold it can hold in the national wealth fund with much of its savings frozen by international sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.
George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors provides his outlook for gold in 2023, as well as the specific headwinds and tailwinds he expect to drive price activity moving forward.
The February crude oil contract CLG23 was down over 2% in trading early Thursday.
The Aiguille du Midi, neighboring popular Mont Blanc in the French Alps, is famous for having the highest vertical ascent cable car in the world, a vertigo-inducing ride that is equal parts scary and awe-inspiring.
The era of easy returns came to a screeching halt in 2022.
The damage caused by climate change over this past year was at times so immense it was hard to comprehend.
It’s hard to believe that the post-Covid world at one point was supposed to usher in a new consumer-led boom worthy of the “Roaring Twenties.”
U.S. stocks are rising in pre-market trading, looking to rebound from yesterday's drop.
Bear markets end with widespread capitulation while a chorus of the stock trader’s prayer (God, if you get me out of this mess, I swear I will never buy another stock) spreads through out the land.
Enjoy the latest Newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Rather quietly, a new age of atomic energy may be approaching. Splitting atoms may not be as exciting as fusing them, or as modish as wind and solar projects.
U.S. stocks continue to oscillate around the unchanged mark.
Congress is on the verge of passing a bill called SECURE 2.0 to help American workers save for retirement.
U.S. stocks are rising in pre-market action in the first trading session of the week following the long holiday weekend.
In a year when soaring inflation and sinking growth rocked corporate boardrooms and Wall Street trading floors, some nooks of the stock market gave investors shelter to hide out.
U.S. equities are modestly higher but near the unchanged mark in pre-market action.
Buying a plot of land in rural America has never been so expensive. And that’s even with soaring interest rates.
U.S. stocks are falling sharply, giving up yesterday's rally.
Energy
Treasury Snapshot: February 3, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 3, 2023 at 3.53%, the two-year note ended at 4.30%, and the 30-year at 3.63%.
Live Cattle Rallies on Inventory Report
The April Live Cattle futures, LCJ23, rallied as traders digested the United States Department of Agricultures (USDA) Cattle inventory report.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: January Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of non-farm employment. January saw a 517K increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.4%. The Investing.com forecast was for 185K jobs gained.
Gulf Oil Refiners Struggle to Be Ready as EU Bans Russian Fuels
Europe’s looming ban on almost all Russian fuel is sparking a scramble for alternatives, not least from Middle Eastern petrostates.
The FOMC Won’t Blink
As expected and discussed in the January Macro Tides the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped below 7.0% falling to 6.5% from 7.1% in November.
Regional Differences in European GDP Trends
On Monday, Germany’s GDP print for the final quarter of 2022 came out below expectations of 0.0% by -2%.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of January 31, 2023, the 10-year note was 300 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020.
January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Declining Further
The January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 46.9, up 0.7 from the final December figure, and marginally better than the Investing.com forecast of 46.8. However, this marks the third consecutive month in contraction territory. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Too Soon for Global Optimism
It is hard to reconcile the jubilant mood of many business leaders with the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: Regular and Premium Continue to Climb for 5th Week In A Row
As of January 30, the price of regular and premium gas were up 7 and 8 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.89 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.09. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.90 and is down 4.6% from last week.
Earnings Season Takes Center Stage
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Yellen Sees Low Inflation as More Likely Long-Term Challenge
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said persistently weak inflation is likely to return as a long-term challenge for the economy and policymakers once pandemic-era distortions behind the recent surge subside and prices cool.
Stocks Decreasing to Start the Busy Week
U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
Bitcoin Barrels Toward Historic January as Crypto Market Jumps by $280 Billion
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
Stocks Are Poised to Hit New Lows This Year, Survey of Investors Shows
Investors have little confidence in US stocks even after this month’s surge, fearing weak corporate earnings could drag them back down.
Growth Pains
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
I Asked ChatGPT to Write About Airline Deregulation in the U.S. Here’s How It Went
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
An Uncommon Approach to Implementing Multiple Niches
Here are six steps to implement multiple niches, bring in new clients, and accelerate their growth goals.
$1 Trillion Green Investment Matches Fossil Fuels for First Time
For the first time, the world invested as much money into replacing fossil fuels as it spent on producing oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF.
Big Oil Faces Headwinds After Record $199 Billion Profit Haul
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
Big Banks Told to Phase Out Financing of New Fossil-Fuel Projects
Six Wall Street banks are being pressed by a group of shareholders to move faster on reducing their financing of fossil fuels to meet global climate goals.
Crypto Is Worth Fixing. Regulators Should Get Moving
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
Recession Fear Investing
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Amazon Is a Value Stock in Topsy-Turvy New World of Investing
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
Stocks Adding to Friday's Rally, Flood of Earnings Data Looms
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
Common and Unique Threads of European Inflation
We got consumer price reports for many European countries this week.
Episode 34: Revenge of the Old Economy
Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
Fund Managers Are Betting On China Stocks And Commodities As The Country Reopens
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
Amazon to Plow Extra $35 Billion Into Virginia Data Centers in Cloud Race
Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud unit will spend $35 billion on new data centers in Virginia by 2040, underscoring its determination to stay ahead of rivals Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.
Stocks Higher Heading into the Weekend
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
Quarterly Letter – January 2023
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
Payden & Rygel 2023 Macro Outlook: Macro Memes & Mind Viruses
We call them narratives, memes, or mind viruses.
The Big Four: December Real Retail Sales Continue to Decline
Month-over-month nominal sales in November was down 1.15% and up 6.02% YoY. Real retail sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted CPI, decreased by 1.07% and was down 0.38% YoY.
Time to Buy the Dip In Energy?
Oil prices continue to struggle as recession fears have curtailed the market is recent months.
Design Your Website to Appeal to Multiple Audiences
It is a challenge to design a website that addresses the needs and questions of multiple client types.
October 2022 Market & Economic Outlook Report
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
The Punchbowl Is Gone
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Unfazed by Airline Grounding, Investors Look Ahead to Earnings
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
Not the Cool Kids
As we start the year 2023, we are reminded of the profound poetry from the band, Echosmith, in the song, “Cool Kids.” It can teach us about what it takes to succeed in long-duration common stock investing currently.
Components of the CPI: December
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Electric Vehicles Look Poised for Slower Sales Growth This Year
Each year presents its own challenges, and 2023 is no exception, with economic uncertainty riding high, geopolitical tensions rising and the policy landscape shifting.
Equity Outlook: The Times They Are A-Changin’
In 2022, inflation and interest rates both rose substantially, creating the near-term potential for a recession.
Stocks Falling in Wake of Mixed Banking Results
U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.
Stocks Grappling With December Inflation Report
U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.
US Inflation Cools Again, Putting Fed on Track to Downshift
US inflation continued to slow in December, adding to evidence price pressures have peaked and putting the Federal Reserve on track to again slow the pace of interest-rate hikes.
Consumer Price Index: December Headline at 6.45%, Down from November
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 6.45%, down from 7.11% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 5.71%, down from 5.96% the previous month.
3 Investment Themes for 2023
2023 may be another difficult year for investors who hope to relive the speculative markets of 2020 and 2021.
Balmy European Winter Helps Industrial Production
With winter not fully upon us, European industrial production has benefitted from lower energy prices.
Inflation's Path From Peak Is Next Big Question for US Economy
The question that obsessed financial markets last year was when and where US inflation would peak. The 2023 version will likely be how far, and how fast, it comes down.
Value Stocks to Lure Investors During Grim Earnings Season
Investors are bracing for a miserable stretch of earnings reports that will likely extend the dominance of value shares as Corporate America grapples with high inflation and rising borrowing costs, the latest MLIV Pulse survey shows.
The Warren Buffett Way to Profit From the Energy Crisis
When the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, triggering the largest-ever oil spill in the US, all eyes turned to BP Plc, the British company behind the drilling. But BP wasn’t alone in the project.
A Primer for Clients to Invest in Commodities
Commodities may seem like just another one of the bunch, but these products offer a unique way to invest your money in the market.
European Fixed-Income Outlook: Stay High Quality in 2023
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
International and Global Markets Commentary & Investment Outlook
An era of low inflation and low interest rates has ended.
Year of the Pause
Welcome to 2023. It’s Forecast Season on Wall Street, the time when everyone tells us what to expect for the new year. Do they really know? Of course not. Forecasters don’t know, investors know they don’t know, yet we all go through this exercise anyway.
Is It Time To Rethink The 60/40 Portfolio?
Investors who use a 60/40 portfolio had a rough year. In the past, putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds has often helped investors hedge against losses in either asset class. But 2022 had other ideas.
The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 30, 2022 close.
Bloomberg Commodity Index Trends Downward to Start the Year
The March contract for the Bloomberg Commodity Index (ERH23) was down for the third consecutive day on Thursday. Since ending 2022 at 112.80, the contract is down 5.03 at 107.77.
ETF Market Expanded in 2022 Through Bear Market But Took Hits
Optimists were still to be found in the world of US exchange-traded funds, where more than 400 new ETFs were launched despite a harsh bear market. Funds took in more than half a trillion dollars as more investors learned to embrace their easier-to-trade and tax-friendly structure.
The Fed’s “7% Solution” Won’t Work This Time
Just recently, James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, suggested the central bank might need to employ the “7% solution” to ensure the complete destruction of inflation.
Markets Look to Rebound From a Volatile 2022
The U.S. economy continually showed its resiliency through a challenging year.
Byron Wien Sees Market Bottom by Mid-Year, Positive Real Rates
The US stock market will bottom by the middle of 2023 as the Federal Reserve tamps down inflation without causing anything worse than a “mild” economic recession, according to Byron Wien’s annual list of surprises.
Stocks Higher to Pare Early-Year Losses
U.S. equities are solidly higher in afternoon action, paring some of the losses that have plagued the start of 2023.
The R Year
2022 wasn’t the easiest of years to handle for investors.
US Treasuries Poised for Best New-Year Start in Two Decades
US Treasuries headed for the strongest start to a year in more than two decades as investors scooped up government debt on wagers the Federal Reserve will further slow its pace of rate hikes as inflation cools.
What Could Go Wrong for the Federal Reserve in 2023
In some ways, the 2023 economic outlook for the US is locked in. The Federal Reserve’s goal is to push the rate of inflation back down to 2% over the next few years.
Nikko Asset Management Global Investment Committee’s Outlook
Nikko Asset Management’s Global Investment Committee recently got together to discus their views heading into 2023.
Markets End Lower in the Final Trading Session of 2022
U.S. equities closed out 2022 in the red, and all three major indexes registered solid losses on a yearly basis. The stock market posted its worst yearly decline since 2008.
Russia Doubles Yuan, Gold Share in Wealth Fund Holdings
Russia’s Finance Ministry doubled the amount of Chinese yuan and gold it can hold in the national wealth fund with much of its savings frozen by international sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.
Gold 2023 Outlook: Recession and Rates to Remain in Focus
George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors provides his outlook for gold in 2023, as well as the specific headwinds and tailwinds he expect to drive price activity moving forward.
Crude Oil Slumps on Travel Concerns, Forecasted Production Increases
The February crude oil contract CLG23 was down over 2% in trading early Thursday.
Zooming in on Fixed Income as We Head into 2023
The Aiguille du Midi, neighboring popular Mont Blanc in the French Alps, is famous for having the highest vertical ascent cable car in the world, a vertigo-inducing ride that is equal parts scary and awe-inspiring.
Retail Investors Took a Beating in 2022. Will It Continue in 2023?
The era of easy returns came to a screeching halt in 2022.
Six Climate Breakthroughs That Made 2022 a Step Toward Net Zero
The damage caused by climate change over this past year was at times so immense it was hard to comprehend.
The Roaring Twenties Are Now Over. Time to Get Real.
It’s hard to believe that the post-Covid world at one point was supposed to usher in a new consumer-led boom worthy of the “Roaring Twenties.”
Stocks Set to Rebound to Begin the Day
U.S. stocks are rising in pre-market trading, looking to rebound from yesterday's drop.
The 70% Solution
Bear markets end with widespread capitulation while a chorus of the stock trader’s prayer (God, if you get me out of this mess, I swear I will never buy another stock) spreads through out the land.
NewsLetter - December 2022
Enjoy the latest Newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Net Zero Isn't Possible Without Nuclear
Rather quietly, a new age of atomic energy may be approaching. Splitting atoms may not be as exciting as fusing them, or as modish as wind and solar projects.
Lackluster Action in the Final Days of 2022
U.S. stocks continue to oscillate around the unchanged mark.
SECURE 2.0 Act Still Leaves Holes in US Retirement Plans
Congress is on the verge of passing a bill called SECURE 2.0 to help American workers save for retirement.
Stocks Higher Following Long Holiday Weekend
U.S. stocks are rising in pre-market action in the first trading session of the week following the long holiday weekend.
These Were the Best Trades in 2022
In a year when soaring inflation and sinking growth rocked corporate boardrooms and Wall Street trading floors, some nooks of the stock market gave investors shelter to hide out.
Stocks Flat Heading into Holiday Weekend
U.S. equities are modestly higher but near the unchanged mark in pre-market action.
US Farmland Escapes Real Estate Slump as Prices Soar to Record
Buying a plot of land in rural America has never been so expensive. And that’s even with soaring interest rates.
Stocks Dropping Amid a Host of Economic Reports
U.S. stocks are falling sharply, giving up yesterday's rally.