Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In April, the MCSI fell to 52.2, its lowest level since July 2022. Meanwhile, the CCI dropped to 86.0, is lowest level since May 2020.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in February as the benchmark national index rose for the 25th consecutive month to a 21st straight record high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.9% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.0% and YoY fell to -0.5%.
The Fed’s in a bind. Policy uncertainty is high. And tariffs are likely to hit the U.S. economy with a “stagflation-lite” impulse in coming quarters—weaker growth and higher prices.
Gold has been a high-performing investment over the prior year. It has rallied on the back of falling short-term interest rates and recently increased uncertainty about global trade and economic growth.
U.S. policy uncertainty and the ebbs and flows of AI advancement are likely to stoke continued volatility in the world’s stock markets.
Google parent Alphabet Inc. reported first-quarter revenue and profit that exceeded analysts’ expectations, buoyed by continued strength in its search advertising business.
Asia-Pacific will likely be the hardest hit region from a steep increase in U.S. tariffs.
Downgrades and defaults can detract from corporate bond portfolio performance. Let’s look at how applying fundamental credit research may help reduce these risks.
A raft of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US could bruise China’s export revenues in the short term. But its domestically focused economic engine and shrinking dependency on US trade should minimize fallout in the long run.
How our open platform of best-of-breed managers allows us to distill complexity in the face of market turbulence by tapping into their collective intelligence.
Even with tariff uncertainty, there’s no stopping the engine of ETF creation. More than 288 new ETFs have already launched this year.
The Big Tech stocks are beginning the year’s earnings season with mild optimism. After signs from the White House that President Donald Trump may be softening his scorched-earth tariff plan, the Magnificent Seven stocks have been up more than 6% this week.
President Trump has been a vocal admirer of China’s Great Wall, built by the country’s emperors to protect their territory from outside aggression. In his first term, he compared his plan to build a border wall with that historic structure.
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Margin debt is often seen as a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite. High levels of margin debt can signal confidence, but extreme spikes may also indicate excessive speculation, increasing the risk of market instability.
I’m not someone who believes you should let offensive things go by. Look for your opportunity and be ready!
In this video, I break down the No. 1 thing you should focus on for organic growth: ensuring your marketing efforts are strategic, effective, and aligned with your long-term goals.
Big US banks are navigating a choppy environment just two years after the last round of turmoil, this time with almost no one questioning the industry’s ability to ride out whatever is coming.
To say that it has been a tumultuous year in Canada would be an understatement. The country’s business model, which relies heavily on commerce with the United States, has been put under severe stress by the American administration.
Andrew Leigh is a very good storyteller, making “How Economics Explains the World” an easy and fun read. In the hands of someone unfamiliar with basic economic reasoning, it might lead them to pursue economics further. Even if you’re farther along in your economic education, we almost always benefit from relearning things we already know, but in a new light.
Eitelman began by assessing the health of the U.S. economy through hard and soft data. He explained that hard data refers to measures of actual spending and economic activity, while soft data refers to how companies and consumers respond to surveys.
U.S. defensives and international lead.a
Active management has not disappeared — it has simply evolved. Rather than focusing on outdated stock selection methodologies, today’s most effective active strategies center on active portfolio construction and dynamic asset allocation.
Investing in stocks so far in 2025 has not been for the faint of heart. Some market indices have undergone wild swings, flirting with bear-market territory
The first quarter of 2025 marked a significant departure from the preceding two years, which had been characterized by an improving global economy and correspondingly positive market returns. Market performance in Q1 was dominated by abrupt, short-term policy shifts rather than longer-term economic trends, and tariffs became the foremost concern for market participants.
Talk of a recession is everywhere. The case is simple: Liberation Day delivered the biggest increase in tariffs in a century. Consumer prices will rise. Purchasing power will decline. Recession…right?
KKR & Co. is eyeing one of the riskiest deals going right now — buying the owner of London’s creaking water and sewage system, Thames Water. Giving a private equity firm the chance to profit from fixing the mess Thames got into under past private ownership looks bad but makes sense.
With Congress out for the next two weeks for Easter recess and a short trading week in New York, it should be a quieter week – though tariff-related news continues to capture headlines.
As you position your practice for long-term success, keeping on top of the latest trends and ideas is critical.
Nominal retail sales in March were up 1.43% month-over-month (MoM) and up 4.60% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 1.48% MoM and up 2.15% YoY.
If the goal is to use technological platforms to customize and maximize the experience for your clients, it seems many of us still have a way to go.
Manufacturing activity contracted for a second consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing April survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 11.9 points but remained below zero at -8.1. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -12.8.
After several weeks of steep selloffs, the major averages roared back on Wednesday as the Trump administration announced a 90-day pause on its reciprocal tariffs.
Global equities faced fresh challenges in the first quarter of 2025 amid growing trade-war concerns and developments in artificial intelligence (AI).
Members of Congress from both parties were among the many caught off guard by last week's Rose Garden tariff announcement.
The fifth edition of our annual “Voice of the American Workplace” survey, conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Franklin Templeton, includes the perspectives of both employers and workers. The 2025 survey found US workers are prioritizing work-life balance and their mental health. Employers are listening and strengthening their focus on improving benefits and communication. In this piece, our Jacque Reardon shares findings from the survey and potential implications for employers.
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth.
As investors are uncomfortably aware of, global equity markets have been in freefall since U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2.
VettaFi head of sector and industry research Roxana Islam talked to T. Rowe Price PM Dom Rizzo on active tech ETF investing.
Global markets are in freefall in response to President Donald Trump’s universal 10% tariff on all goods being imported into the U.S., with as many as 60 countries facing “reciprocal” tariffs on top of that.
As volatility rises, staying invested is a strategic priority for capturing long-term return potential in a broadening market.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the March 2025 close.
Meta Platforms Inc.’s head of artificial intelligence research plans to leave the company, creating a high-level vacancy just as Meta seeks to invest and compete aggressively in AI.
The underrepresentation of women in financial services leadership is not a reflection of their ability – it’s a symptom of an industry that hasn’t evolved quickly enough to meet the challenges of the modern world. Addressing this gap requires more than a commitment to diversity...
Even in the best-case scenarios, implicit trust tends to erode when a marriage unravels. On occasion, the divorce process uncovers secrets, hidden rifts, and breaches of trust that can expose both parties to scrutiny and trouble.
Stocks are mixed around midday after seeing some mid-morning buying as investors position ahead of tomorrow's "Liberation Day".
The world has entered a period of geopolitical uncertainty, with the U.S. now at the center of the storm.
They took the concept of a mutual fund, rewrapped it in a low-cost, easily traded package, and offered it to investors on a silver platter. Today, ETFs account for $15 trillion AUM globally, making them one of the most dominant forces in modern markets. And behind the scenes, they’re working even harder than you think.
A duo of emerging-market bond veterans at Jeffrey Gundlach’s DoubleLine Capital is taking no chances as Donald Trump rolls out his trade agenda.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in February and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.1% year-over-year.
On March 18, 2025, Jensen Huang stepped onto the stage at Nvidia's GPU Technology Conference (GTC) in San Jose with the presence of a man who knows he's about to redefine the trajectory of an industry—again. His message was clear: AI has hit an inflection point, and if you're not paying attention, you're already behind.
Longtime Investor Alert readers have often seen me say that government policy is a precursor to change. What this means is that, when policymakers act—whether through subsidies, sanctions, tariffs or regulations—markets can sometimes respond swiftly and dramatically. We’re seeing that play out right now in real time, especially in the copper market.
From New York to London and Hong Kong, investors are cutting back risk ahead of next week’s tariff announcements, while keeping cash ready to pounce the moment opportunities arise.
If you log onto Chinese social media these days, you may encounter many young people expressing the “involution” or neijuan mentality. It’s become a buzzword for a generation of college students and recent graduates beaten down by society’s relentless competition, and roughly translates to rolling inwards.
When UBS Group AG acquired Credit Suisse in March 2023, its board of directors thought they were doing their duty.
Portfolio Managers John Kerschner, Nick Childs, and Jessica Shill discuss the AAA CLO ETF landscape and highlight the most important considerations for investors.
The global economy is undergoing an unprecedented wave of industrial and infrastructure expansion, driving relentless demand for commodities across energy, metals and agriculture.
The parallels between the AI narrative driving the current market and the dot-com bubble of a quarter century ago raise important concerns for investors.
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Trading with a margin debt can magnify gains because an investor can benefit from the upside of any stock without having to invest 100%, resulting in greater profit. On the flip side, trading with margin debt can also exacerbate losses because if a stock's value were to depreciate, the investor may face a margin call and would need to come up with additional cash to reach the minimum requirement.
Without a robust regulatory framework that incentivizes stablecoin issuers to register in the United States, stablecoin activity will migrate to countries with weaker rules, increasing the likelihood of financial instability. Fortunately, the US can still head off these risks and reap the technology’s benefits.
The stock market sell-off appears to be signaling a recession. However, we believe the bond market disagrees.
Green bond issuers tend to excel at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, per a Bank for International Settlements study.
We have certainly seen an uptick in this sentiment accompanying the increase in market volatility since the start of the year.
Muni issuers are generally sound, so cuts in aid would be felt but dealt with.
Congress managed to avoid a government shutdown, but Democrats are divided on strategy.
Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.”
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on February 4, equity markets have been under pressure as the S&P 500 has retraced more than 23% of the rally that started October 2023.
Most growth-focused advisors crave the next big marketing tactic, content platform, event idea, or growth “hack.” But after a decade of consulting RIAs on organic growth, I’ve seen firsthand that the biggest barriers to success aren’t what most people expect.
Microsoft Corp., the biggest backer of Sam Altman’s OpenAI, and BlackRock Inc., which has an executive on the artificial intelligence startup’s board, are joining forces with one of its chief rivals.
Value investing and emerging markets are not often associated with one another. Conventional wisdom says that emerging markets, with their rapidly developing economies and rising consumer classes, are naturally the hunting ground of growth-oriented investors.
The U.S. housing market has been a critical factor in the broader economic landscape, and its trends have profound implications.
The wealth industry could be headed into an era of accelerated innovation, as advisory firms shift from zero to full speed ahead with artificial intelligence.
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
Industry luminary Tom Lydon provides his unique perspective on the current ETF landscape. VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy highlights five ETF categories that might benefit from the recent market turmoil.
Banks’ retreat is creating opportunity for investors.
A decade after being engulfed by a controversy that culminated in multiple enforcement actions and a regulator clampdown, these off-exchange trading platforms are touting a way to buy and sell stocks that’s even more opaque.
The tendency of stocks to produce all their gains at night, when markets are closed, and systematically lose money during the daylight hours, has baffled researchers for four decades and potentially put retail investors at a disadvantage.
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
The Liberal Party of Canada has wrapped up its leadership race, with Mark Carney winning by an overwhelming margin.
In a world of rich valuations and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, we believe Japanese equities are well positioned to deliver attractive returns.
Global investment themes are shifting toward infrastructure, cybersecurity and energy expansion as demand outpaces supply in key sectors.
The EV shakeout is underway. When the dust settles, only a few players will remain. Many more will be relegated to the scrapyard of failed ambitions.
As more advisors look to private equity as an effective means of diversifying their clients’ portfolios and providing a fertile source of uncorrelated alpha, the middle market merits a closer look.
The virtue economy, the only bubble I have ever called, has now completely burst.
It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone calls that change things. All of this clearly has an impact on the market. So, we are not surprised to see stock market volatility.
There’s a lesson for financial advisors in this story. If you demonstrate a genuine intention to engage and connect with your female clients, it will build relationships that could drive the growth of the business for years to come.
I will again join forces with Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research to explore this data more deeply. Currently we have several powerful trends that have combined to create a nirvana-like market.
The U.S. has poured more than $120 billion into Ukraine since its war with Russia began three years ago, but with a new administration in Washington, that support is grinding to a halt.
Opportunities have increased significantly in frontier markets debt as more countries have made a conscious effort to open their capital markets to international investors and currencies have become more fairly valued.
Though the new US policy focus is on oil and gas, wider opportunities still beckon.
We view quarterly earnings season as a critical checkup on how markets are handling current challenges.
Diversity & Inclusion
Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: April 2025
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In April, the MCSI fell to 52.2, its lowest level since July 2022. Meanwhile, the CCI dropped to 86.0, is lowest level since May 2020.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: 3.9% Annual Gain in February
Home prices continued to trend upwards in February as the benchmark national index rose for the 25th consecutive month to a 21st straight record high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.9% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.0% and YoY fell to -0.5%.
Pick Your Poison: Higher Inflation or Slower Growth?
The Fed’s in a bind. Policy uncertainty is high. And tariffs are likely to hit the U.S. economy with a “stagflation-lite” impulse in coming quarters—weaker growth and higher prices.
The Gold Investment Thesis Revisited
Gold has been a high-performing investment over the prior year. It has rallied on the back of falling short-term interest rates and recently increased uncertainty about global trade and economic growth.
Equity Market Outlook
U.S. policy uncertainty and the ebbs and flows of AI advancement are likely to stoke continued volatility in the world’s stock markets.
Alphabet’s Sales Beat Estimates on Google Search Ad Business
Google parent Alphabet Inc. reported first-quarter revenue and profit that exceeded analysts’ expectations, buoyed by continued strength in its search advertising business.
It’s Complicated
Asia-Pacific will likely be the hardest hit region from a steep increase in U.S. tariffs.
Avoiding Fallen Angels: When Credit Research Matters Most
Downgrades and defaults can detract from corporate bond portfolio performance. Let’s look at how applying fundamental credit research may help reduce these risks.
Chinese Equities: Investing in Stocks That Transcend Tariff Turmoil
A raft of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US could bruise China’s export revenues in the short term. But its domestically focused economic engine and shrinking dependency on US trade should minimize fallout in the long run.
Tariff-Fueled Volatility Reveals Access to Best Ideas
How our open platform of best-of-breed managers allows us to distill complexity in the face of market turbulence by tapping into their collective intelligence.
ETF Market Booms: Record Launches & Sophisticated Strategies
Even with tariff uncertainty, there’s no stopping the engine of ETF creation. More than 288 new ETFs have already launched this year.
AI Was Already Clouding Tech Earnings. Then Tariffs Hit
The Big Tech stocks are beginning the year’s earnings season with mild optimism. After signs from the White House that President Donald Trump may be softening his scorched-earth tariff plan, the Magnificent Seven stocks have been up more than 6% this week.
The Great Wall
President Trump has been a vocal admirer of China’s Great Wall, built by the country’s emperors to protect their territory from outside aggression. In his first term, he compared his plan to build a border wall with that historic structure.
Margin Debt: March 2025
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Margin debt is often seen as a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite. High levels of margin debt can signal confidence, but extreme spikes may also indicate excessive speculation, increasing the risk of market instability.
Take Well-Timed Action for the Biggest Impact
I’m not someone who believes you should let offensive things go by. Look for your opportunity and be ready!
Want to Drive Organic Growth? Focus on This
In this video, I break down the No. 1 thing you should focus on for organic growth: ensuring your marketing efforts are strategic, effective, and aligned with your long-term goals.
US Banks Ride Out Market Turmoil Thanks to Capital Buildup They Opposed
Big US banks are navigating a choppy environment just two years after the last round of turmoil, this time with almost no one questioning the industry’s ability to ride out whatever is coming.
Oh, Canada
To say that it has been a tumultuous year in Canada would be an understatement. The country’s business model, which relies heavily on commerce with the United States, has been put under severe stress by the American administration.
Is Economics About Everything? A Review of ‘How Economics Explains the World'
Andrew Leigh is a very good storyteller, making “How Economics Explains the World” an easy and fun read. In the hands of someone unfamiliar with basic economic reasoning, it might lead them to pursue economics further. Even if you’re farther along in your economic education, we almost always benefit from relearning things we already know, but in a new light.
Hard Data Points to Soft Landing: But Confidence Wanes
Eitelman began by assessing the health of the U.S. economy through hard and soft data. He explained that hard data refers to measures of actual spending and economic activity, while soft data refers to how companies and consumers respond to surveys.
Quarterly Recap Q1 2025
U.S. defensives and international lead.a
The Evolution of Active Management: From Stock Picking to Active Asset Allocation
Active management has not disappeared — it has simply evolved. Rather than focusing on outdated stock selection methodologies, today’s most effective active strategies center on active portfolio construction and dynamic asset allocation.
Consider Direct Indexing to Offset Pain From Market Volatility
Investing in stocks so far in 2025 has not been for the faint of heart. Some market indices have undergone wild swings, flirting with bear-market territory
Tariff Tremors, Market Rotations, and the Imperative of Optimization
The first quarter of 2025 marked a significant departure from the preceding two years, which had been characterized by an improving global economy and correspondingly positive market returns. Market performance in Q1 was dominated by abrupt, short-term policy shifts rather than longer-term economic trends, and tariffs became the foremost concern for market participants.
4 Reasons to Believe in This Economy
Talk of a recession is everywhere. The case is simple: Liberation Day delivered the biggest increase in tariffs in a century. Consumer prices will rise. Purchasing power will decline. Recession…right?
KKR Will Have to Fight for Private Equity’s Smelliest Deal
KKR & Co. is eyeing one of the riskiest deals going right now — buying the owner of London’s creaking water and sewage system, Thames Water. Giving a private equity firm the chance to profit from fixing the mess Thames got into under past private ownership looks bad but makes sense.
Overall U.S. Tariff Level Still High Despite Exemptions
With Congress out for the next two weeks for Easter recess and a short trading week in New York, it should be a quieter week – though tariff-related news continues to capture headlines.
The Importance of Staying Up to Date on Practice Management
As you position your practice for long-term success, keeping on top of the latest trends and ideas is critical.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Jump 1.5% in March
Nominal retail sales in March were up 1.43% month-over-month (MoM) and up 4.60% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 1.48% MoM and up 2.15% YoY.
Making It Personal: Improve Your Online Presence With Smart Data Usage
If the goal is to use technological platforms to customize and maximize the experience for your clients, it seems many of us still have a way to go.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Continued to Contract in April
Manufacturing activity contracted for a second consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing April survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 11.9 points but remained below zero at -8.1. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -12.8.
Tariff Pause Brings One-Day Relief Rally–Largest Since '08
After several weeks of steep selloffs, the major averages roared back on Wednesday as the Trump administration announced a 90-day pause on its reciprocal tariffs.
Finding Silver Linings in Very Cloudy Markets
Global equities faced fresh challenges in the first quarter of 2025 amid growing trade-war concerns and developments in artificial intelligence (AI).
Washington: What to Watch Now
Members of Congress from both parties were among the many caught off guard by last week's Rose Garden tariff announcement.
Aligning for Success: From Conflict to Consensus
The fifth edition of our annual “Voice of the American Workplace” survey, conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Franklin Templeton, includes the perspectives of both employers and workers. The 2025 survey found US workers are prioritizing work-life balance and their mental health. Employers are listening and strengthening their focus on improving benefits and communication. In this piece, our Jacque Reardon shares findings from the survey and potential implications for employers.
2025 Global Market Outlook: The Mechazilla Moment
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth.
What to Watch in The Face of Tariff Turbulence
As investors are uncomfortably aware of, global equity markets have been in freefall since U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2.
T. Rowe Price PM Rizzo on Active Tech ETF Investing at Exchange
VettaFi head of sector and industry research Roxana Islam talked to T. Rowe Price PM Dom Rizzo on active tech ETF investing.
America’s Tariff Rate Hits the Highest Level Since 1909—And That’s Before Retaliation
Global markets are in freefall in response to President Donald Trump’s universal 10% tariff on all goods being imported into the U.S., with as many as 60 countries facing “reciprocal” tariffs on top of that.
Finding Silver Linings in Very Cloudy Markets
As volatility rises, staying invested is a strategic priority for capturing long-term return potential in a broadening market.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of March 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the March 2025 close.
Meta’s Head of AI Research to Leave, Roiling Investment Push
Meta Platforms Inc.’s head of artificial intelligence research plans to leave the company, creating a high-level vacancy just as Meta seeks to invest and compete aggressively in AI.
Closing the Gender Gap in Financial Services: The Case for Intentional Succession Planning
The underrepresentation of women in financial services leadership is not a reflection of their ability – it’s a symptom of an industry that hasn’t evolved quickly enough to meet the challenges of the modern world. Addressing this gap requires more than a commitment to diversity...
Uncovering Tax Fraud in a Divorce: Lawyer and Advisor Collaboration Crucial
Even in the best-case scenarios, implicit trust tends to erode when a marriage unravels. On occasion, the divorce process uncovers secrets, hidden rifts, and breaches of trust that can expose both parties to scrutiny and trouble.
Today's Options Market Update
Stocks are mixed around midday after seeing some mid-morning buying as investors position ahead of tomorrow's "Liberation Day".
Seeking Stability
The world has entered a period of geopolitical uncertainty, with the U.S. now at the center of the storm.
ETFs Changed Everything – Unlock Their Full Power for Your Clients
They took the concept of a mutual fund, rewrapped it in a low-cost, easily traded package, and offered it to investors on a silver platter. Today, ETFs account for $15 trillion AUM globally, making them one of the most dominant forces in modern markets. And behind the scenes, they’re working even harder than you think.
DoubleLine Finds Shelter From Trump Volatility in Latin America
A duo of emerging-market bond veterans at Jeffrey Gundlach’s DoubleLine Capital is taking no chances as Donald Trump rolls out his trade agenda.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.1% in February
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in February and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.1% year-over-year.
Not That Keynote—Jensen Style
On March 18, 2025, Jensen Huang stepped onto the stage at Nvidia's GPU Technology Conference (GTC) in San Jose with the presence of a man who knows he's about to redefine the trajectory of an industry—again. His message was clear: AI has hit an inflection point, and if you're not paying attention, you're already behind.
Copper and Gold Soar as Trump’s Trade War Reshapes Global Markets
Longtime Investor Alert readers have often seen me say that government policy is a precursor to change. What this means is that, when policymakers act—whether through subsidies, sanctions, tariffs or regulations—markets can sometimes respond swiftly and dramatically. We’re seeing that play out right now in real time, especially in the copper market.
Macro Traders From New York to Hong Kong Prep for Tariff Day
From New York to London and Hong Kong, investors are cutting back risk ahead of next week’s tariff announcements, while keeping cash ready to pounce the moment opportunities arise.
Tim Cook Is Back in China. Apple Intelligence Isn’t
If you log onto Chinese social media these days, you may encounter many young people expressing the “involution” or neijuan mentality. It’s become a buzzword for a generation of college students and recent graduates beaten down by society’s relentless competition, and roughly translates to rolling inwards.
Don’t Punish UBS for Doing the Right Thing
When UBS Group AG acquired Credit Suisse in March 2023, its board of directors thought they were doing their duty.
The Art and Science of Managing AAA CLO Portfolios
Portfolio Managers John Kerschner, Nick Childs, and Jessica Shill discuss the AAA CLO ETF landscape and highlight the most important considerations for investors.
A World Under Construction
The global economy is undergoing an unprecedented wave of industrial and infrastructure expansion, driving relentless demand for commodities across energy, metals and agriculture.
The AI Boom vs. the Dot-Com Bubble: Have We Seen This Movie Before?
The parallels between the AI narrative driving the current market and the dot-com bubble of a quarter century ago raise important concerns for investors.
Margin Debt: January 2025
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Trading with a margin debt can magnify gains because an investor can benefit from the upside of any stock without having to invest 100%, resulting in greater profit. On the flip side, trading with margin debt can also exacerbate losses because if a stock's value were to depreciate, the investor may face a margin call and would need to come up with additional cash to reach the minimum requirement.
The US Needs Stablecoin Legislation Now
Without a robust regulatory framework that incentivizes stablecoin issuers to register in the United States, stablecoin activity will migrate to countries with weaker rules, increasing the likelihood of financial instability. Fortunately, the US can still head off these risks and reap the technology’s benefits.
Bond Market Not Signaling Recession
The stock market sell-off appears to be signaling a recession. However, we believe the bond market disagrees.
Study Shows Green Bond Issuers Better at Reducing Emissions
Green bond issuers tend to excel at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, per a Bank for International Settlements study.
Thinking About Market Timing?
We have certainly seen an uptick in this sentiment accompanying the increase in market volatility since the start of the year.
Municipal Bonds: Built to Withstand Federal Funding Cuts
Muni issuers are generally sound, so cuts in aid would be felt but dealt with.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Congress managed to avoid a government shutdown, but Democrats are divided on strategy.
Stupidity And The 5-Laws Not To Follow
Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.”
Tactical Rules Turn More Bullish
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on February 4, equity markets have been under pressure as the S&P 500 has retraced more than 23% of the rally that started October 2023.
The No. 1 Growth Mistake Advisors Keep Making
Most growth-focused advisors crave the next big marketing tactic, content platform, event idea, or growth “hack.” But after a decade of consulting RIAs on organic growth, I’ve seen firsthand that the biggest barriers to success aren’t what most people expect.
Musk’s xAI Startup Joins Microsoft-BlackRock $30 Billion AI Fund
Microsoft Corp., the biggest backer of Sam Altman’s OpenAI, and BlackRock Inc., which has an executive on the artificial intelligence startup’s board, are joining forces with one of its chief rivals.
Revisiting Seven Sources of Value in Emerging Markets
Value investing and emerging markets are not often associated with one another. Conventional wisdom says that emerging markets, with their rapidly developing economies and rising consumer classes, are naturally the hunting ground of growth-oriented investors.
The U.S. Housing Market: Risks, Realities, and the Road Ahead
The U.S. housing market has been a critical factor in the broader economic landscape, and its trends have profound implications.
The AI Race in Wealth Management is About to Speed Up
The wealth industry could be headed into an era of accelerated innovation, as advisory firms shift from zero to full speed ahead with artificial intelligence.
How To Survive Falling Markets
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
A Stroll Through ETFs with Industry Luminary Tom Lydon
Industry luminary Tom Lydon provides his unique perspective on the current ETF landscape. VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy highlights five ETF categories that might benefit from the recent market turmoil.
Europe: The Next Frontier in Asset-Based Finance
Banks’ retreat is creating opportunity for investors.
Darker Than a Dark Pool? Welcome to Wall Street’s ‘Private Rooms’
A decade after being engulfed by a controversy that culminated in multiple enforcement actions and a regulator clampdown, these off-exchange trading platforms are touting a way to buy and sell stocks that’s even more opaque.
We Still Need to Find Out Why Stocks Gains Come at Night
The tendency of stocks to produce all their gains at night, when markets are closed, and systematically lose money during the daylight hours, has baffled researchers for four decades and potentially put retail investors at a disadvantage.
Gold Smashes Through $3,000 as Recession Fears Mount
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
Election Debrief: Why the Era of Uncertainty May Continue in Canada
The Liberal Party of Canada has wrapped up its leadership race, with Mark Carney winning by an overwhelming margin.
Three Reasons We’re Overweight Japanese Equities
In a world of rich valuations and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, we believe Japanese equities are well positioned to deliver attractive returns.
From AI to Infrastructure: The 10 Investment Themes Defining the Next Five Years
Global investment themes are shifting toward infrastructure, cybersecurity and energy expansion as demand outpaces supply in key sectors.
The EV Shakeout
The EV shakeout is underway. When the dust settles, only a few players will remain. Many more will be relegated to the scrapyard of failed ambitions.
Unlock Alpha in Mid-Market Private Equity
As more advisors look to private equity as an effective means of diversifying their clients’ portfolios and providing a fertile source of uncorrelated alpha, the middle market merits a closer look.
Shareholder Capitalism Is Back
The virtue economy, the only bubble I have ever called, has now completely burst.
It's Not All About Tariffs
It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone calls that change things. All of this clearly has an impact on the market. So, we are not surprised to see stock market volatility.
Women Are Wired to Invest—Are You Making the Most of This Referral Goldmine?
There’s a lesson for financial advisors in this story. If you demonstrate a genuine intention to engage and connect with your female clients, it will build relationships that could drive the growth of the business for years to come.
When Valuations Collide
I will again join forces with Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research to explore this data more deeply. Currently we have several powerful trends that have combined to create a nirvana-like market.
European Defense Stocks Go Parabolic as War Spending Surges
The U.S. has poured more than $120 billion into Ukraine since its war with Russia began three years ago, but with a new administration in Washington, that support is grinding to a halt.
6 Reasons to Consider Frontier Markets Debt
Opportunities have increased significantly in frontier markets debt as more countries have made a conscious effort to open their capital markets to international investors and currencies have become more fairly valued.
Power Play: How to Invest Smarter in the Race for Electrification
Though the new US policy focus is on oil and gas, wider opportunities still beckon.
Q4 Earnings Recap: US Large-Cap Earnings Justify Their Current Valuation
We view quarterly earnings season as a critical checkup on how markets are handling current challenges.