Get ready for an absolute blockbuster of a summer, and then some. While mega-cap tech stocks have been busy hogging the headlines on the corporate event calendar, a quiet transformation has been taking place just off the exchange floors. The IPO market, which spent the better part of the last few years stuck in a defensive crouch, has officially smashed the accelerator to start 2026.
It’s May 2026 and once again civilization and financial markets have made it 5-ish months into a new year without self-combusting like a Spinal Tap drummer. It is important to note that dozens of people and stocks spontaneously combust every year, but despite the increasing universality of AI, it’s “just not really widely reported.”
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2026 close.
A seemingly endless appetite for buying US stock dips has propelled Vanguard Group’s S&P 500-tracking ETF past $1 trillion in assets, making it the first fund of its kind to reach a milestone once thought unimaginable for the ETF industry.
The IPO market may be entering one of its largest cycles in years, but the next wave may be defined less by breadth than by scale. Instead of hundreds of companies listing, a smaller group of AI and strategic infrastructure leaders could reset the market on their own.
Given its focus, the launch presents a milestone for the asset management community. ASD blends a sophisticated index design with structural corporate philanthropy to create an ETF that resonates with those invested financially and emotionally.
Rising office delinquencies within commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) reflect genuine pressures from shifting work patterns, higher interest rates, and greater refinancing risk.
While the mass affluent market may not be feeling the brunt of inflation woes or the rising cost of living, its financial planning is still being impacted by current economic headwinds.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is negotiating to pay razor-thin fees to Wall Street firms handling its IPO — but banks are still likely to rake in about $500 million from the record-setting market debut.
If you’re not familiar with the name Leopold Aschenbrenner, you should be. A 24-year-old wunderkind, Aschenbrenner was hired by OpenAI in 2023 to work on the company’s “superalignment” team, essentially trying to figure out how to keep AI systems safe once they become smarter than the people building them.
Closed-end funds may not be a hot topic right now, but they offer a highly compelling means to solve today's macroeconomic woes.
Equities extend gains as earnings and semiconductors lead markets higher. Consumer confidence remains subdued despite economic resilience. Inflation is easing gradually but remains above the Fed’s targey.
Artificial intelligence (AI) poses many ethical issues that may translate into risks for consumers, companies and investors. AI regulation, which is developing unevenly across jurisdictions, adds to the uncertainty. The key for investors, in our view, is to focus on transparency and explainability.
What is unusual about today, and I mean genuinely unusual, historically unusual, is that the people building the equivalent of Newcomen's engine today know exactly (or think they do) what they are building. They are not just pumping water. They “know” the vast potential.
The next IPO wave may create a different kind of portfolio challenge for institutions already holding private stakes in companies like SpaceX and OpenAI.
Growing excitement around the burgeoning space economy is increasingly favoring companies positioned to benefit not only from Elon Musk’s SpaceX filing for a public offering, but also from rising enthusiasm for space exploration and increased funding.
Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as 17th Federal Reserve chair on May 22. Warsh is likely to build consensus at the Fed rather than push for aggressive action to cut rates.
The U.S. government’s decision to invest $2 billion directly into nine quantum-computing companies through minority equity stakes—not just grants—signals a major shift toward treating quantum as a strategic commercial industry, with potential implications for investors seeking targeted exposure through funds like the WisdomTree Quantum Computing Fund (WQTM).
Equity investors are facing monumental questions about their allocation strategies in a new market regime. Market concentration has risen sharply, valuations have climbed to record highs in parts of the market and factor volatility has dominated returns.
California continues to demonstrate fiscal resilience, supported by strong liquidity balances and the absence of projected cash‑flow borrowing through FY 2026–27. However, Medicaid cost pressures, a progressive tax structure highly sensitive to equity market swings, and constitutional spending constraints remain key differentiators between California and other large states.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.05% in April and was up 2.68% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.44% month-over-month and down 1.04% year-over-year.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) made a big announcement this week, touting $100 billion in total ETF AUM. The milestone comes following the firm’s recent acquisition of Innovator ETFs adding several notable funds to the firm’s overall roster.
What are consumers thinking about the economy? Their collective mood offers crucial clues for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. In May, the two leading benchmarks, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), offered similar views with both retreating amid ongoing inflation concerns.
Global equity markets moved modestly higher this week as first-quarter earnings season continued to deliver strong results.
Despite the move lower late last week, U.S. Treasury yields are still holding well above recent lows and close to highs not seen in more than a year. By contrast, risk assets are firmly bid: U.S. equities have been routinely touching new historical highs, and credit spreads over Treasuries remain tight.
You don’t have to go very far to find lots of negative commentary in the popular press about the current state of the US economy. High gas prices (due to a “war of choice”) are squeezing consumers’ budgets, and so the economy is headed for a ditch.
Quantinuum Inc., a quantum computing company backed by Honeywell International Inc., is seeking to raise $1.05 billion in its US initial public offering, capitalizing on investor enthusiasm for the technology.
Home prices fell for the first time in eight months in March according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, as the housing slowdown intensifies. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index dropped 0.2% month-over-month and was up 0.7% year-over-year, the slowest pace since June 2023.
Since the post-COVID recovery began, U.S. nonfinancial corporations have generally managed capital conservatively. They have kept credit metrics stable and, in many cases, actively improved them. That discipline was not entirely voluntary: The sharp adjustment in funding costs triggered by the Federal Reserve’s 2022–2023 rate hiking cycle raised the bar for incremental borrowing and pushed management teams toward balance sheet restraint.
Artificial intelligence (AI) might be the talk of the town these days, but quantum computing is the quiet thunder rumbling in the background. It just got much louder with the U.S. White House commiting to roll out a massive $2 billion funding package distributed across nine quantum computing companies.
Elon Musk has bucked the trend of industrial conglomerate breakups, including such illustrious companies as General Electric and Honeywell International Inc., and decided to form a somewhat unwieldy company that makes rockets, spacecraft, satellites, antennas, modems and now computer chips. With SpaceX’s purchase of Musk’s xAI in February, the world’s leading space company was married to an AI startup and the X social media platform.
For private equity firms, capital flexibility is prized today. Merger-and-acquisition (M&A) activity has cooled, while commodity prices and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven disruption have heated up, creating uncertainty for investors. This makes it more challenging to sell portfolio companies, so private equity firms are holding investments longer. As a result, many firms are turning to net asset value (NAV) loans for capital needs.
While US financial markets brace for what could be the three biggest initial public offerings ever, most entrepreneurship in the US is headed in the opposite direction: New businesses are shrinking.
Nvidia is now a textbook fit for quality-focused indexes in ETFs given its strong underlying business fundamentals. The company has become the smartest kid in the quality classroom, scoring exceptionally high on metrics like high return on equity (ROE), strong return on invested capital (ROIC), stable earnings growth, and low balance sheet leverage.
Put succinctly, the world today requires substantially more electricity than only a few years ago. AI, electrification, reshored manufacturing, and population growth in the developing world are converging into a demand curve that the existing global power system simply cannot meet.
At Google’s developer conference, which is being held near its Mountain View, California, headquarters this week, Chief Executive Officer Sundar Pichai started his keynote by emphasizing the remarkable reach of Google’s services. Thirteen have more than a billion users, he said, and five of them have more than 3 billion.
Wall Street is racing to turn computing power into a tradable commodity with the first ETFs being filed even before the futures contracts they would track have started to trade.
In the past year, new models from industry leaders have continued to boost AI’s capabilities. According to various capabilities tests, Anthropic’s Mythos model has leapfrogged other AI models – including in the ability to thwart or support cyberattacks.
Institutional investors have spent years hearing about the promise of artificial intelligence. That phase is giving way to a more practical question: not whether AI can create more scale, but whether that scale can be governed, validated, and translated into better fiduciary decisions. For OCIO providers, AI without discipline is not an advantage.
The exchange-traded fund marketplace continues to expand. Now with more than $20 trillion in assets under management ($14 trillion in the U.S., growing at an 18% five-year annualized clip), 2026’s volatility and emerging investment themes have taken the universe to new heights.
Space has evolved from a niche corner of the stock market into an area that offers the potential for diversity and growth. The euphoria around SpaceX’s market entry is driving fresh investor flows into the sector. Since the news of the offering first became public in early December, smaller space and related stocks have soared.
I’ve long been a student of game theory, the branch of mathematics that studies how rational actors make decisions when their outcomes depend on what everyone else does. It’s a helpful framework for understanding markets and geopolitics, and right now, there’s no better place to apply it than Taiwan.
Vanguard research suggests that one practical answer may lie in pairing traditional target-date funds with a modest allocation to deferred-income annuities (DIAs).
The sooner the mass of retail private credit managers realize they are zombies and give up the ghost, the sooner we can burn the whole thing to the ground and conjure a better model from the ashes. But there is no time like a crisis to have conversations about how to make the structure work better for everyone in the future!
I was in West Texas recently to witness firsthand the emerging practical applications of artificial intelligence. What I saw bolstered my conviction about the technology’s progress and the need to mold it rather than resist the change.
In the race to build the infrastructure that powers artificial intelligence, Alphabet Inc.’s Google has an enviable position: The company has a healthy cloud computing business, makes its own chips, and has struck deals to share them with companies like Anthropic PBC and Meta Platforms Inc.
Explore how Women in ETFs & CFAOC experts believe AI will supplement, not replace, financial professionals.
Manufacturing activity grew strongly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing May survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 8.6 points to 19.6, its highest level in over four years.
High-growth technology stocks still dominate the investment landscape, fueled by the promise of AI. But recent signs of a broadening market are revealing that more industries beyond just tech are positioned to benefit. We think large-cap value stocks are well-poised for this shift, especially since AI can be both a disruptive and driving force in today’s dynamic market.
Nominal retail sales were up 0.49% month-over-month and up 4.87% year-over-year in April. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.15% month-over-month and up 1.05% year-over-year.
The ETF landscape is ever changing, and has grown massively since the ETF rule arrived in 2019. It was the game-changer that streamlined the launch process for new funds, thus allowing asset managers to offer new and innovative strategies in the wrapper.
Access to private equity, private credit, private infrastructure, and private real estate assets can potentially improve long-term investment outcomes for participants.
AI infrastructure costs just keep on rising. Big tech firms are likely to invest several trillion dollars over the next few years to satisfy your ChatGPT and Claude habit.
Early detection, I believe, is one of the smartest investments you can make, whether we’re talking about your portfolio or your health.
Rather than worrying about the narrow impact of faster IPO inclusion on index fund performance, we think investors would be better served by focusing on the long-term expected returns offered by the markets in which they’re investing – in particular the U.S. and non-U.S. equity markets.
Something unusual is happening with U.S. inflation data. While the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has looked relatively cool recently, core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation has risen sharply.
The Artemis II mission was a glorious moment for space exploration and a sign of a potential $1 trillion investment boom in the global space industry over the next decade.
For a bunch of unremarkable warehouses, they’re generating a lot of controversy. Data centers — low-slung facilities that house the server racks and energy systems that underpin the digital economy — have become a heated issue on the campaign trail. Politicians from both parties are pushing bills to restrict them. Some want a nationwide “moratorium.” That would be a historic mistake.
As equity markets transition into 2026, large cap equity portfolio managers share a surprisingly consistent framework — paired with sharp disagreements on where risk and opportunity sit. A survey of large growth, value, and blend managers reveals a market shifting away from simple narratives toward selectivity, fundamentals, and manager skill.
Global equity markets entered 2025 with a familiar narrative. U.S. leadership remained firm, supported by strong earnings, AI-driven optimism, and a market structure increasingly dominated by a narrow group of large-cap companies. For many investors, the path forward seemed clear: stay anchored to what worked.
ClearBridge Investments suggests investors could use volatility as an opportunity to deploy capital, while modestly favoring the stronger earnings revisions and more reasonable valuations available in non-US equities.
Microsoft Corp. may shelve one of the industry’s most ambitious clean-energy targets as it tries to remove hurdles that could hold it back in the race to power data centers, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Throughout Europe, companies are facing a quandary: How can they afford immense investments in decarbonization when a combination of now-surging energy prices, Chinese overproduction and US tariffs threatens to undermine their existing businesses?
April showers came in the form of more inflows raining down on the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market last month. Assets under management (AUM) have now grown to a staggering $14.7 trillion for the year. That’s punctuated by year-to-date (YTD) net inflows of over $636 billion.
What a week this was! On Tuesday, I participated on a panel at the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, where I discussed why Bitcoin miners have a head start in the race for AI compute.
The poor sentiment toward private credit funds has dragged down many high-quality BDCs, as well as weaker ones. The chaos and bad press surrounding private credit funds are not reasons to avoid BDCs. In fact, we think it’s a reason to consider them.
The U.S. economy ended April with mixed signals: steady interest rates and high Fed dissent met persistent, energy-driven inflation. Despite these hurdles, accelerated Q1 growth and rising consumer confidence provided a buffer against ongoing global instability.
Although sentiment remains sensitive to headlines around the Strait of Hormuz and energy markets, Franklin Templeton’s Emerging Markets Debt team sees an asset class that has shown it can absorb shocks, even as renewed geopolitical flare-ups or a broader risk-off episode could still test markets.
Core aggregate benchmarks remain the bedrock of many fixed income portfolios but advisors are increasingly looking to income alternatives.
The sharp rebound from the March lows has pushed most major equity indexes back to record highs. This upside momentum has been fueled in part by signs of de-escalation with Iran and growing expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon.
Eli Lilly & Co. surprised Wall Street by raising its annual sales and profit forecast, as demand for obesity medications soared and thousands of patients started taking its new weight-loss pill before advertising for the drug had even begun.
Geopolitics – beyond the Fed’s control – have added to economic uncertainty and cloud the outlook as Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh (who this morning won the backing of the Senate Banking Committee and will now head to the Senate for final confirmation) looks almost certain to take the reins in just over two weeks.
As widely expected amid rising oil, rates will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. However, four policymakers dissented. And Fed Chair Powell will stay as governor after his chairmanship ends.
For much of 2025, the U.S. dollar looked vulnerable: expensive, less supported by the exceptionalism narrative and heading toward a weaker regime. Then the war in the Middle East changed the picture. Energy prices rose, risk sentiment shifted and the dollar reclaimed its safe-haven role.
For years, Warren Buffett shaped the meeting into something closer to a macro forum layered atop a company update. His commentary, alongside the late Charlie Munger’s sharp mind and entertaining voice, kept Berkshire stockholders and the investing world glued to TV screens on the first Saturday in May.
The Federal Reserve concluded its third meeting of the year by holding the federal funds rate (FFR) steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.
A few weeks ago, I sat down at my laptop and built a trading platform. It connects to three financial exchanges. It ingests news from RSS feeds, web searches, Reddit and Twitter.
The defining feature of a Ponzi scheme is that it persuades investors to pay for future cash flows that, at least in part, don’t actually exist, while creating the impression that those cash flows imply an attractive return on the price investors pay. If we look carefully at the record valuation extremes in the equity market, and the wildly elevated profit margins that investors appear to view as permanent, we can already see the potential for difficult, even tragic outcomes for investors.
The Iran conflict has turned energy markets into a moving target, with oil prices adjusting as expectations around Strait of Hormuz supply risk shift.
As the Q1 2026 earnings season enters its most frantic stretch, the market stands at a critical crossroads between resilient corporate fundamentals and macro-driven anxiety. While the high percentage of early beats suggests that American business remains surprisingly nimble, the coming days will determine if that momentum can withstand the Mag 7’s massive spending requirements.
Like many of you, I am inundated with information. Most of it is not useful or repetitive. Today, were going to do something different. Rather than one theme, let’s look at various bits of data that I found interesting this week.
Leaders often have trouble focusing on the longer-term. In the corporate arena, pressure to produce quarterly earnings can truncate planning horizons. In public life, popular opinion and election cycles can impose myopia. It takes a unique set of ingredients to set, and stick to, a lasting vision.
Back-and-forth developments over the weekend around the Strait of Hormuz have added near-term volatility to energy markets. That uncertainty is feeding into oil prices and reinforcing questions about how persistent energy-driven inflation pressures could become, particularly if disruption risks continue to ebb and flow.
The primary contagion risk is sector concentration. Software and tech-enabled services represent roughly 15-20% of direct lending portfolios. A meaningful portion of these loans also resides in the Broadly Syndicated Loan (BSL) market – the bedrock of CLO ETFs – leading to a software weighting of 12–18% in typical CLO collateral pools.
With policy changes creating more access to retirement savings plans, more workers are saving for the future. According to the Investment Company Institute, nearly 75% of households own some form of tax-advantaged retirement account such as a 401(k) or IRA.
Investors often view commercial real estate (CRE) through the narrow lens of the office sector. We think this office-only focus understates how broad the asset class is and its potential. Offices may face well-documented headwinds, but many other CRE segments appear more resilient.
Amid rising college costs and mounting student debt, parents are looking for more ways to lessen the financial burden of higher education. Luckily, 529 college savings plans can help. These unique savings vehicles offer several tax breaks for parents as they save for their children’s future education.
LPL Research examines the fixed income space as global bonds broaden yields and reduce U.S. concentration, offering diversified income and resilience via non‑U.S. developed and emerging markets.
Despite compositional differences – public equities generally represent larger companies with more scale, liquidity, and financial flexibility than the typically smaller, private-equity-owned issuers that dominate the software loan market – the outcome is the same: Neither market has been able to fully retrace the year-to-date sell-off in a meaningful way.
The Q1 2026 earnings season has officially started, and the early results suggest a market that is largely defying the geopolitical fog we’ve discussed.
Diversity & Inclusion
The New-Issue Window Flies Open: Inside 2026's Red-Hot First-Half IPO Rush
Get ready for an absolute blockbuster of a summer, and then some. While mega-cap tech stocks have been busy hogging the headlines on the corporate event calendar, a quiet transformation has been taking place just off the exchange floors. The IPO market, which spent the better part of the last few years stuck in a defensive crouch, has officially smashed the accelerator to start 2026.
Venus and Mars are Alright Tonight?
It’s May 2026 and once again civilization and financial markets have made it 5-ish months into a new year without self-combusting like a Spinal Tap drummer. It is important to note that dozens of people and stocks spontaneously combust every year, but despite the increasing universality of AI, it’s “just not really widely reported.”
The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq: Real Returns Since 2000 Peak (May 2026)
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2026 close.
Vanguard’s VOO Hits $1 Trillion of Assets in ETF Industry First
A seemingly endless appetite for buying US stock dips has propelled Vanguard Group’s S&P 500-tracking ETF past $1 trillion in assets, making it the first fund of its kind to reach a milestone once thought unimaginable for the ETF industry.
Four Watchpoints for 2026’s Potential Mega IPO Class
The IPO market may be entering one of its largest cycles in years, but the next wave may be defined less by breadth than by scale. Instead of hundreds of companies listing, a smaller group of AI and strategic infrastructure leaders could reset the market on their own.
Investing With Purpose: Defiance Launches Autism Impact ETF
Given its focus, the launch presents a milestone for the asset management community. ASD blends a sophisticated index design with structural corporate philanthropy to create an ETF that resonates with those invested financially and emotionally.
CMBS: A Tale of Two (office) Markets?
Rising office delinquencies within commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) reflect genuine pressures from shifting work patterns, higher interest rates, and greater refinancing risk.
How Advisors Can Adapt as the Needs of the Mass Affluent Change
While the mass affluent market may not be feeling the brunt of inflation woes or the rising cost of living, its financial planning is still being impacted by current economic headwinds.
SpaceX Wants a Fee Cut From IPO Bankers Targeting $500 Million Windfall
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is negotiating to pay razor-thin fees to Wall Street firms handling its IPO — but banks are still likely to rake in about $500 million from the record-setting market debut.
The $13.7 Billion Hedge Fund That’s Betting Big on AGI Infrastructure
If you’re not familiar with the name Leopold Aschenbrenner, you should be. A 24-year-old wunderkind, Aschenbrenner was hired by OpenAI in 2023 to work on the company’s “superalignment” team, essentially trying to figure out how to keep AI systems safe once they become smarter than the people building them.
3 Reasons To Invest In Closed-End Funds This Summer
Closed-end funds may not be a hot topic right now, but they offer a highly compelling means to solve today's macroeconomic woes.
Earnings and Semiconductors Power Markets
Equities extend gains as earnings and semiconductors lead markets higher. Consumer confidence remains subdued despite economic resilience. Inflation is easing gradually but remains above the Fed’s targey.
How Investors Can Navigate the Maze
Artificial intelligence (AI) poses many ethical issues that may translate into risks for consumers, companies and investors. AI regulation, which is developing unevenly across jurisdictions, adds to the uncertainty. The key for investors, in our view, is to focus on transparency and explainability.
The Future Arrives Unevenly
What is unusual about today, and I mean genuinely unusual, historically unusual, is that the people building the equivalent of Newcomen's engine today know exactly (or think they do) what they are building. They are not just pumping water. They “know” the vast potential.
Mega IPOs and Institutional Portfolio Risk
The next IPO wave may create a different kind of portfolio challenge for institutions already holding private stakes in companies like SpaceX and OpenAI.
Rocket, Satellite Stocks Surge as SpaceX IPO Fuels Euphoria
Growing excitement around the burgeoning space economy is increasingly favoring companies positioned to benefit not only from Elon Musk’s SpaceX filing for a public offering, but also from rising enthusiasm for space exploration and increased funding.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as 17th Federal Reserve chair on May 22. Warsh is likely to build consensus at the Fed rather than push for aggressive action to cut rates.
The U.S. Government Just Became a Quantum Investor
The U.S. government’s decision to invest $2 billion directly into nine quantum-computing companies through minority equity stakes—not just grants—signals a major shift toward treating quantum as a strategic commercial industry, with potential implications for investors seeking targeted exposure through funds like the WisdomTree Quantum Computing Fund (WQTM).
Allocate with Intent: Active Equity Strategies for Changing Markets
Equity investors are facing monumental questions about their allocation strategies in a new market regime. Market concentration has risen sharply, valuations have climbed to record highs in parts of the market and factor volatility has dominated returns.
California Municipals: What Matters Now
California continues to demonstrate fiscal resilience, supported by strong liquidity balances and the absence of projected cash‑flow borrowing through FY 2026–27. However, Medicaid cost pressures, a progressive tax structure highly sensitive to equity market swings, and constitutional spending constraints remain key differentiators between California and other large states.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.05% in April and was up 2.68% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.44% month-over-month and down 1.04% year-over-year.
Goldman Sachs ETFs Hit $100 Billion AUM
Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) made a big announcement this week, touting $100 billion in total ETF AUM. The milestone comes following the firm’s recent acquisition of Innovator ETFs adding several notable funds to the firm’s overall roster.
Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: May 2026
What are consumers thinking about the economy? Their collective mood offers crucial clues for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. In May, the two leading benchmarks, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), offered similar views with both retreating amid ongoing inflation concerns.
Markets Rally as IPO Momentum Builds
Global equity markets moved modestly higher this week as first-quarter earnings season continued to deliver strong results.
Measuring What Matters in Public and Private Fixed Income
Despite the move lower late last week, U.S. Treasury yields are still holding well above recent lows and close to highs not seen in more than a year. By contrast, risk assets are firmly bid: U.S. equities have been routinely touching new historical highs, and credit spreads over Treasuries remain tight.
Not So Bad
You don’t have to go very far to find lots of negative commentary in the popular press about the current state of the US economy. High gas prices (due to a “war of choice”) are squeezing consumers’ budgets, and so the economy is headed for a ditch.
Honeywell-Backed Quantinuum Seeks to Raise $1.05 Billion in IPO
Quantinuum Inc., a quantum computing company backed by Honeywell International Inc., is seeking to raise $1.05 billion in its US initial public offering, capitalizing on investor enthusiasm for the technology.
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index: Housing Slowdown Intensifies
Home prices fell for the first time in eight months in March according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, as the housing slowdown intensifies. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index dropped 0.2% month-over-month and was up 0.7% year-over-year, the slowest pace since June 2023.
AI Credit Expansion: Assessing the Micro and Macro Risks
Since the post-COVID recovery began, U.S. nonfinancial corporations have generally managed capital conservatively. They have kept credit metrics stable and, in many cases, actively improved them. That discipline was not entirely voluntary: The sharp adjustment in funding costs triggered by the Federal Reserve’s 2022–2023 rate hiking cycle raised the bar for incremental borrowing and pushed management teams toward balance sheet restraint.
Washington’s $2 Billion Quantum Bet Can Prop Up These ETFs
Artificial intelligence (AI) might be the talk of the town these days, but quantum computing is the quiet thunder rumbling in the background. It just got much louder with the U.S. White House commiting to roll out a massive $2 billion funding package distributed across nine quantum computing companies.
Musk Is Leading SpaceX Into the Conglomerate Trap
Elon Musk has bucked the trend of industrial conglomerate breakups, including such illustrious companies as General Electric and Honeywell International Inc., and decided to form a somewhat unwieldy company that makes rockets, spacecraft, satellites, antennas, modems and now computer chips. With SpaceX’s purchase of Musk’s xAI in February, the world’s leading space company was married to an AI startup and the X social media platform.
NAV Loans: Flexibility for Private Equity When Holding Periods Extend
For private equity firms, capital flexibility is prized today. Merger-and-acquisition (M&A) activity has cooled, while commodity prices and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven disruption have heated up, creating uncertainty for investors. This makes it more challenging to sell portfolio companies, so private equity firms are holding investments longer. As a result, many firms are turning to net asset value (NAV) loans for capital needs.
America’s Small-Business Boom Comes Without New Jobs
While US financial markets brace for what could be the three biggest initial public offerings ever, most entrepreneurship in the US is headed in the opposite direction: New businesses are shrinking.
Nvidia Cements Its Quality Characteristics After Q1 Earnings Beat
Nvidia is now a textbook fit for quality-focused indexes in ETFs given its strong underlying business fundamentals. The company has become the smartest kid in the quality classroom, scoring exceptionally high on metrics like high return on equity (ROE), strong return on invested capital (ROIC), stable earnings growth, and low balance sheet leverage.
The Energy Pivot: Establishing Supply in the Face of Historic Demand
Put succinctly, the world today requires substantially more electricity than only a few years ago. AI, electrification, reshored manufacturing, and population growth in the developing world are converging into a demand curve that the existing global power system simply cannot meet.
Google Is Trying to Integrate Too Much AI Too Quickly
At Google’s developer conference, which is being held near its Mountain View, California, headquarters this week, Chief Executive Officer Sundar Pichai started his keynote by emphasizing the remarkable reach of Google’s services. Thirteen have more than a billion users, he said, and five of them have more than 3 billion.
The Race to Offer Compute Futures to Masses Has Already Started
Wall Street is racing to turn computing power into a tradable commodity with the first ETFs being filed even before the futures contracts they would track have started to trade.
AI, Market Power, and Diminishing Labor Share
In the past year, new models from industry leaders have continued to boost AI’s capabilities. According to various capabilities tests, Anthropic’s Mythos model has leapfrogged other AI models – including in the ability to thwart or support cyberattacks.
AI Won’t Replace OCIO, It Will Separate Leaders From the Rest
Institutional investors have spent years hearing about the promise of artificial intelligence. That phase is giving way to a more practical question: not whether AI can create more scale, but whether that scale can be governed, validated, and translated into better fiduciary decisions. For OCIO providers, AI without discipline is not an advantage.
The ETF Universe Keeps Expanding. So Does the Complexity of Tracking It.
The exchange-traded fund marketplace continues to expand. Now with more than $20 trillion in assets under management ($14 trillion in the U.S., growing at an 18% five-year annualized clip), 2026’s volatility and emerging investment themes have taken the universe to new heights.
SpaceX Going Public Is Igniting Wall Street’s Own Race to Orbit
Space has evolved from a niche corner of the stock market into an area that offers the potential for diversity and growth. The euphoria around SpaceX’s market entry is driving fresh investor flows into the sector. Since the news of the offering first became public in early December, smaller space and related stocks have soared.
The Game Theory Behind Taiwan
I’ve long been a student of game theory, the branch of mathematics that studies how rational actors make decisions when their outcomes depend on what everyone else does. It’s a helpful framework for understanding markets and geopolitics, and right now, there’s no better place to apply it than Taiwan.
Retirement Income Security on Your Terms
Vanguard research suggests that one practical answer may lie in pairing traditional target-date funds with a modest allocation to deferred-income annuities (DIAs).
A Proposal to Save Private Credit (Sort Of)
The sooner the mass of retail private credit managers realize they are zombies and give up the ghost, the sooner we can burn the whole thing to the ground and conjure a better model from the ashes. But there is no time like a crisis to have conversations about how to make the structure work better for everyone in the future!
I Have Seen the Future of Physical AI in Dusty West Texas
I was in West Texas recently to witness firsthand the emerging practical applications of artificial intelligence. What I saw bolstered my conviction about the technology’s progress and the need to mold it rather than resist the change.
Google’s Own AI Researchers Jockey for Access to Its Computing
In the race to build the infrastructure that powers artificial intelligence, Alphabet Inc.’s Google has an enviable position: The company has a healthy cloud computing business, makes its own chips, and has struck deals to share them with companies like Anthropic PBC and Meta Platforms Inc.
Will I Be Replaced? Decoding the $1.5T AI Disruption in Finance
Explore how Women in ETFs & CFAOC experts believe AI will supplement, not replace, financial professionals.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Highest Level in Four Years
Manufacturing activity grew strongly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing May survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 8.6 points to 19.6, its highest level in over four years.
Can Value Stocks Offer Resilience to AI Disruption?
High-growth technology stocks still dominate the investment landscape, fueled by the promise of AI. But recent signs of a broadening market are revealing that more industries beyond just tech are positioned to benefit. We think large-cap value stocks are well-poised for this shift, especially since AI can be both a disruptive and driving force in today’s dynamic market.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales
Nominal retail sales were up 0.49% month-over-month and up 4.87% year-over-year in April. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.15% month-over-month and up 1.05% year-over-year.
New ProShares ETF Targets Firms Buying Back Shares
The ETF landscape is ever changing, and has grown massively since the ETF rule arrived in 2019. It was the game-changer that streamlined the launch process for new funds, thus allowing asset managers to offer new and innovative strategies in the wrapper.
Private Assets in Target-Date Funds: A Balanced Assessment
Access to private equity, private credit, private infrastructure, and private real estate assets can potentially improve long-term investment outcomes for participants.
AI’s Big Guns Have a Serious Inflation Problem
AI infrastructure costs just keep on rising. Big tech firms are likely to invest several trillion dollars over the next few years to satisfy your ChatGPT and Claude habit.
AI Could Save Trillions in U.S. Healthcare Costs. These Companies Are Leading the Way.
Early detection, I believe, is one of the smartest investments you can make, whether we’re talking about your portfolio or your health.
Mega-IPOs & Index Fund Mechanics: Much Ado About Nothing?
Rather than worrying about the narrow impact of faster IPO inclusion on index fund performance, we think investors would be better served by focusing on the long-term expected returns offered by the markets in which they’re investing – in particular the U.S. and non-U.S. equity markets.
U.S. Inflation Measures Tell Two Different Stories
Something unusual is happening with U.S. inflation data. While the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has looked relatively cool recently, core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation has risen sharply.
Where to Invest Now That Moon Race 2.0 Is Here
The Artemis II mission was a glorious moment for space exploration and a sign of a potential $1 trillion investment boom in the global space industry over the next decade.
Data Centers Aren’t the Enemy — They’re the Future
For a bunch of unremarkable warehouses, they’re generating a lot of controversy. Data centers — low-slung facilities that house the server racks and energy systems that underpin the digital economy — have become a heated issue on the campaign trail. Politicians from both parties are pushing bills to restrict them. Some want a nationwide “moratorium.” That would be a historic mistake.
AI, Healthcare, and Volatility: Positioning for 2026
As equity markets transition into 2026, large cap equity portfolio managers share a surprisingly consistent framework — paired with sharp disagreements on where risk and opportunity sit. A survey of large growth, value, and blend managers reveals a market shifting away from simple narratives toward selectivity, fundamentals, and manager skill.
Why Global, Why Active, Why Now
Global equity markets entered 2025 with a familiar narrative. U.S. leadership remained firm, supported by strong earnings, AI-driven optimism, and a market structure increasingly dominated by a narrow group of large-cap companies. For many investors, the path forward seemed clear: stay anchored to what worked.
AOR Update: Mailbag Edition
ClearBridge Investments suggests investors could use volatility as an opportunity to deploy capital, while modestly favoring the stronger earnings revisions and more reasonable valuations available in non-US equities.
Microsoft in Talks to Ax Energy Pledge Amid Data Center Boom
Microsoft Corp. may shelve one of the industry’s most ambitious clean-energy targets as it tries to remove hurdles that could hold it back in the race to power data centers, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
‘Made in Europe’ Won’t Make Europe Competitive
Throughout Europe, companies are facing a quandary: How can they afford immense investments in decarbonization when a combination of now-surging energy prices, Chinese overproduction and US tariffs threatens to undermine their existing businesses?
April Showers Bring a Deluge of ETF Inflows
April showers came in the form of more inflows raining down on the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market last month. Assets under management (AUM) have now grown to a staggering $14.7 trillion for the year. That’s punctuated by year-to-date (YTD) net inflows of over $636 billion.
Nations Are Scrambling for AI Sovereignty. Bitcoin Miners Hold the Keys.
What a week this was! On Tuesday, I participated on a panel at the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, where I discussed why Bitcoin miners have a head start in the race for AI compute.
BDCs: Not All Yield Is Created Equal
The poor sentiment toward private credit funds has dragged down many high-quality BDCs, as well as weaker ones. The chaos and bad press surrounding private credit funds are not reasons to avoid BDCs. In fact, we think it’s a reason to consider them.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Rising Inflation and Policy Dissent
The U.S. economy ended April with mixed signals: steady interest rates and high Fed dissent met persistent, energy-driven inflation. Despite these hurdles, accelerated Q1 growth and rising consumer confidence provided a buffer against ongoing global instability.
Resilience Through Volatility
Although sentiment remains sensitive to headlines around the Strait of Hormuz and energy markets, Franklin Templeton’s Emerging Markets Debt team sees an asset class that has shown it can absorb shocks, even as renewed geopolitical flare-ups or a broader risk-off episode could still test markets.
Modernize Fixed Income Portfolios With Income Alternatives
Core aggregate benchmarks remain the bedrock of many fixed income portfolios but advisors are increasingly looking to income alternatives.
Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not
The sharp rebound from the March lows has pushed most major equity indexes back to record highs. This upside momentum has been fueled in part by signs of de-escalation with Iran and growing expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon.
Lilly Boosts Sales View to $85 Billion on Obesity-Drug Surge
Eli Lilly & Co. surprised Wall Street by raising its annual sales and profit forecast, as demand for obesity medications soared and thousands of patients started taking its new weight-loss pill before advertising for the drug had even begun.
So Long, but Not Farewell...
Geopolitics – beyond the Fed’s control – have added to economic uncertainty and cloud the outlook as Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh (who this morning won the backing of the Senate Banking Committee and will now head to the Senate for final confirmation) looks almost certain to take the reins in just over two weeks.
Powell's Swan Song: Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged
As widely expected amid rising oil, rates will remain 3.5% to 3.75%. However, four policymakers dissented. And Fed Chair Powell will stay as governor after his chairmanship ends.
Is the U.S. Dollar Back? Three Perspectives
For much of 2025, the U.S. dollar looked vulnerable: expensive, less supported by the exceptionalism narrative and heading toward a weaker regime. Then the war in the Middle East changed the picture. Energy prices rose, risk sentiment shifted and the dollar reclaimed its safe-haven role.
Berkshire Hathaway at a Crossroads: No Buffett, Record Markets, Big Questions
For years, Warren Buffett shaped the meeting into something closer to a macro forum layered atop a company update. His commentary, alongside the late Charlie Munger’s sharp mind and entertaining voice, kept Berkshire stockholders and the investing world glued to TV screens on the first Saturday in May.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: April 29, 2026
The Federal Reserve concluded its third meeting of the year by holding the federal funds rate (FFR) steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.
I Built an AI Trading Platform in Six Days. That’s Terrifying
A few weeks ago, I sat down at my laptop and built a trading platform. It connects to three financial exchanges. It ingests news from RSS feeds, web searches, Reddit and Twitter.
Causes and Conditions
The defining feature of a Ponzi scheme is that it persuades investors to pay for future cash flows that, at least in part, don’t actually exist, while creating the impression that those cash flows imply an attractive return on the price investors pay. If we look carefully at the record valuation extremes in the equity market, and the wildly elevated profit margins that investors appear to view as permanent, we can already see the potential for difficult, even tragic outcomes for investors.
Iran Conflict and Energy Markets: The Initial Response from Active Managers
The Iran conflict has turned energy markets into a moving target, with oil prices adjusting as expectations around Strait of Hormuz supply risk shift.
Mag 7 Earnings on Deck: AI Monetization and Leadership Transitions Take Center Stage this Week
As the Q1 2026 earnings season enters its most frantic stretch, the market stands at a critical crossroads between resilient corporate fundamentals and macro-driven anxiety. While the high percentage of early beats suggests that American business remains surprisingly nimble, the coming days will determine if that momentum can withstand the Mag 7’s massive spending requirements.
Where Does a Random Walk Through The Data Lead Us?
Like many of you, I am inundated with information. Most of it is not useful or repetitive. Today, were going to do something different. Rather than one theme, let’s look at various bits of data that I found interesting this week.
The Gulf May Need New Vision
Leaders often have trouble focusing on the longer-term. In the corporate arena, pressure to produce quarterly earnings can truncate planning horizons. In public life, popular opinion and election cycles can impose myopia. It takes a unique set of ingredients to set, and stick to, a lasting vision.
Energy Volatility Complicates the Inflation Outlook But This isn't 2022
Back-and-forth developments over the weekend around the Strait of Hormuz have added near-term volatility to energy markets. That uncertainty is feeding into oil prices and reinforcing questions about how persistent energy-driven inflation pressures could become, particularly if disruption risks continue to ebb and flow.
Private Credit Jitters: Spillover into CLO ETFs?
The primary contagion risk is sector concentration. Software and tech-enabled services represent roughly 15-20% of direct lending portfolios. A meaningful portion of these loans also resides in the Broadly Syndicated Loan (BSL) market – the bedrock of CLO ETFs – leading to a software weighting of 12–18% in typical CLO collateral pools.
Don't Let State Taxes Derail Your Retirement: What You Need to Know
With policy changes creating more access to retirement savings plans, more workers are saving for the future. According to the Investment Company Institute, nearly 75% of households own some form of tax-advantaged retirement account such as a 401(k) or IRA.
Commercial Real Estate: It’s More Diverse Than You Think
Investors often view commercial real estate (CRE) through the narrow lens of the office sector. We think this office-only focus understates how broad the asset class is and its potential. Offices may face well-documented headwinds, but many other CRE segments appear more resilient.
What Are 529 College Savings Plans?
Amid rising college costs and mounting student debt, parents are looking for more ways to lessen the financial burden of higher education. Luckily, 529 college savings plans can help. These unique savings vehicles offer several tax breaks for parents as they save for their children’s future education.
Rethinking Fixed Income Allocation in a Multi‑Polar World
LPL Research examines the fixed income space as global bonds broaden yields and reduce U.S. concentration, offering diversified income and resilience via non‑U.S. developed and emerging markets.
Software Stuck in a Trough
Despite compositional differences – public equities generally represent larger companies with more scale, liquidity, and financial flexibility than the typically smaller, private-equity-owned issuers that dominate the software loan market – the outcome is the same: Neither market has been able to fully retrace the year-to-date sell-off in a meaningful way.
Q1 Earnings Kick Off: Strong Results and Record CEO Confidence Anchor the Market
The Q1 2026 earnings season has officially started, and the early results suggest a market that is largely defying the geopolitical fog we’ve discussed.