Commentary

Recession Unlikely in 2022

The consensus among economists puts the odds of a recession starting sometime in the next year at 30%, according to Bloomberg's most recent survey.

Commentary

Reducing Our Stock Market Forecasts

At the end of 2021, we set out our projections for the stock market in 2022: 5,250 for the S&P 500 and 40,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Commentary

Research Reports

"Transitory" is out, "expeditious" is in.

Commentary

Whipping Inflation

Ultimately, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, as the late great economist Milton Friedman used to say.

Commentary

Focus on the Money, Not Rates

No one can say that the Federal Reserve can't do the impossible.

Commentary

Slower Growth in Q1

Real GDP, in the US, grew 5.5% in 2021, the fastest growth for any calendar year since the Reagan Boom in the mid-1980s.

Commentary

Housing: Heartburn, Not a Heart Attack

When interest rates go up, many analysts start to worry about recessions.

Commentary

We Are All Keynesians Now

Intellectuals and politicians often try to verbally summarize or justify conventional thinking in pithy ways.

Commentary

Inflation Games

Inflation is a political lightning rod.

Commentary

What the Fed "Should" Do

Normally when we write about public policy – monetary policy, taxes, spending, trade, and regulations – we mainly focus on what we think policymakers will do and the likely effects on the economy or the financial markets.

Commentary

Research Reports

As expected, the Federal Reserve raised short-term rates by one quarter of a percentage point (25 basis points) earlier today, the first rate hike since the end of 2018.

Commentary

It's the Money

With every passing month, politicians and economists try to blame inflation on anything but excess money growth.

Commentary

Will Russian Sanctions Lead China to Sell US Debt?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine led western nations to impose the most draconian economic sanctions in the modern era.

Commentary

Thoughts on Ukraine

They say the truth is the first casualty of war...so, here we are about one week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the fog of war is still very thick.

Commentary

Sticking to Our Targets, For Now

Late last year we unveiled our stock market forecast for 2022, projecting the S&P 500 would rise to 5,250 and the Dow Jones Industrials average would climb to 40,000.