Commentary

Disinflation, Not Deflation

New home prices are much lower than a year ago. The average price of a new home sold in October was 10.4% lower, while the median price was down 17.6%.

Commentary

Argentina: Is the Pendulum Swinging, Again?

When Argentina entered the 20th Century, its prospects looked bright. On a per person basis, its economy was on par with Canada and Sweden and about two-thirds of the United States.

Commentary

Consumer Spending Set for Slower Growth

Now that we’re about to enter the Christmas shopping season, expect even more focus than usual on the consumer over the next several weeks.

Commentary

Who Owns the Federal Debt?

The primary holder of U.S. Federal debt is, surprising to many, the U.S. federal government itself, accounting for approximately 40% of the total outstanding debt.

Commentary

M2 and Inflation

Starting in mid-2020, we began worrying about and forecasting higher inflation. The reason behind this was our belief in Milton Friedman and his view that inflation is “too much money chasing too few goods.”

Commentary

Government Is Too Darn Big

Two weeks ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was hovering around 5%, and the S&P 500 was in contraction territory, down over 10%.

Commentary

Pause...For Now

The Fed kept rates unchanged at today’s meeting, but whether they are done with rate hikes or simply at a pause is yet to be determined.

Commentary

It's the Same Bear Market

The S&P 500 closed at 4,117 on Friday, more than 10% below its recent peak in late July. Some are saying it’s a brand-new bear market for stocks.

Commentary

Growth Surge in Q3 Masks Weak Trend

We still think a recession is coming, but it definitely didn’t start in the third quarter. Instead, as we set out below, it looks like real GDP expanded at a 4.7% annual rate.

Commentary

Federal Government Finances

With annual deficits now in the trillions and interest payments on government debt at all-time highs, something needs to change.

Commentary

Big Government Weighing on Growth

At the end of October we will get our first look at real GDP growth for the third quarter and it looks like it was very strong.

Commentary

Crisis Management Government Leads to No Good

Back in 2008, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson, using fear of financial collapse, convinced President Bush and Congress to 1) pass a $700 billion bailout of banks (called TARP) and 2) allow the Federal Reserve to pay banks interest on reserves at the same time the Fed moved from a scarce reserve model of monetary policy to an abundant reserve policy.

Commentary

Tax Policy Outlook

The fiscal year ended last week, alarms went off both literally and figuratively, and a last-minute deal was reached to keep the government open for another forty-five days.

Commentary

Don’t Fall for the Q3 Head-Fake

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is tracking a Real GDP growth rate of 4.9% for Q3, which would be the fastest quarterly growth rate since the earlier part of the COVID recovery.

Commentary

You Know It When You See It

While the Fed kept rates unchanged at today’s meeting, between the press conference and forecast updates, Powell and Co. gave plenty of ammo to keep the financial press busy speculating about what may come at the next FOMC meeting this Fall.