The Greatest Possible Stimulus

After receiving the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus from China, it took Moderna just two days (two days!!) to generate the sequence of the vaccine. In less than a month, they produced the first clinical batch of the mRNA-1273 vaccine that has now seen tens of millions of doses distributed. It moved through clinical trials at warp speed, going from idea, to FDA authorization, to shots in arms in less than a year. In short, it's a modern-day medical miracle.

The COVID-19 vaccines – Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, and Johnson & Johnson to name a few - are the key to unlocking sustainable growth in the economy. They are critical for ending restrictions that have devastated small and medium size businesses from coast to coast. And the effect of reopening is more impactful than the trillions of dollars the government has thrown at the economy (and the spending isn't over). Government spending is a Band-Aid, while reopening heals the root cause of our economic ailment. As the data shows, vaccine distribution is well under way. The rollout hasn't been perfect, nobody will argue that, but it is accelerating, and the economy is following suit.

As we wrote earlier this month, we believe it's possible – dare we say likely - that the US can hit herd immunity in mid-to-late April. The ramifications for the US economy of plummeting cases, declining hospitalizations, and fewer lives lost to the virus can hardly be understated. But the underlying details of the overall data are even more impressive.