Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%. The economy remains resilient and the consumer is strong.
A weaker U.S. dollar cycle is boosting the appeal of emerging market debt, creating a compelling case for investors seeking income and diversification at an opportune time for the asset class.
Treasury’s pivot toward long-bond buybacks gives duration buyers their first clear green light in months — and the November midterms may add a second leg.
We think it’s time for investors to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core (plus) bond portfolios. Valuations have become more attractive across fixed income, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels. We share our views on when and why.
Convertible bond investors chasing exposure to the artificial intelligence boom are giving up some of the protection they would normally demand, pushing the market toward levels of risk-taking last seen during the pandemic.
For an asset often designated as a store of value, gold volatility has been especially apparent this year. After starting off the year with a high-paced record-setting run that lifted the metal to nearly $5,600 an ounce, including a 13% rally in January alone, momentum quickly faded as tensions with Iran ratcheted higher.
Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department surprised the bond market by announcing that it would at least double selected long-end bond buybacks.
Earnings have built a strong foundation. As we wrote earlier this month, earnings have provided a strong foundation for stocks this year. With second quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 on track to exceed 30% (excluding private investment mark-ups) and analysts continuing to raise estimates, it's safe to say this season strengthened the fundamental case for equities.
Equity markets stumbled this week despite an economic backdrop that continues to show signs of broadening. While concerns about consumer strain are mounting, those worries have so far been offset by ongoing strength in business investment, particularly spending tied to artificial intelligence (AI).
Yields on 30-year US bonds broke 5% last week, a level not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis. The Treasury Department bought bonds in an attempt to lower yields. It worked — for a day, then bond yields went back up. Meanwhile, in a not-exactly-unrelated development, the US national debt just passed $40 trillion.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
For the past five weeks, markets have been focused on a steady stream of corporate earnings, supported by upbeat management commentary and another quarter of strong results. But with second quarter 2026 earnings season nearing its end, investors' attention is shifting back to the macro backdrop.
Something strange has been happening in America lately. The Wall Street Journal says this is the summer when the U.S. became “a nation of Luddites.” The Economist calls it “the Summer of Ludd.”
While it is useful to analyze holdings by asset class, a portfolio-wide view can provide additional insights. Typically, the bond sleeve and the equity sleeve are seen as entirely separate. However, they usually hold unnoticed concentrations in different companies.
For years, Russell index reconstitutions have been treated as a routine maintenance event. Thousands of stocks are ranked, memberships are adjusted, and markets move on
High-yield municipal bonds are one of the best performing asset classes this year but that doesn't mean we think all investors should consider adding them to their portfolio.
Hedged equity as a liquid alternative uses an options-based equity strategy — specifically Swan Global Investments’ Defined Risk Strategy (DRS), in continuous operation since 1997 — as a permanent alternatives allocation that stays invested in the equity market while actively managing downside risk through LEAPS put options
U.S. equities were mostly higher last week, though gains were modest and trading was quiet. The S&P 500, an index of the largest U.S. companies, rose 0.4 per cent and closed on Thursday at a new record high.
Investor appetite for fixed income continues to expand, as evidenced by the latest weekly ETF inflows report from TD Securities. For the week ending August 14, 2026, U.S.-listed ETFs gathered $41.0 billion in total weekly net inflows, which included $13.2 billion into fixed income funds.
The nation’s affordable-housing shortage is fueling a fast-growing corner of the municipal bond market, as lenders securitize portfolios of multifamily mortgages to free up capital for new loans.
Global business activity is showing signs of stabilization, but beneath the surface, the world economy remains divided. Growth momentum has improved in several major developed economies, led by a stronger U.S. expansion and a tentative recovery in parts of Europe.
As private credit further cements its role as a primary source of corporate financing, it will be essential to balance opportunity with prudent risk management for long-term stability and sustainability.
Wealth managers are beating a retreat from private credit and ramping up a search for alternatives, as they continue to reel from sudden exit restrictions at several major direct lending funds earlier this year.
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to choosing between individual bonds and bond funds. The choice depends on an investor’s goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, need for predictable income, and available assets.
Global equity markets continued their strong summer run this week, supported by what has been an exceptionally strong second-quarter earnings season.
The first step in recovery is recognizing a problem. For decades, some U.S. states have had problems with indebtedness. But as we take stock of state finances today, we see many examples of recovery.
Today’s market does not represent today’s economy. The ratio of market value dependent on future economic activity versus present activity has never been higher. These companies have earnings now, but those earnings stem from investments in the future, not present consumption.
Whether fixed income investors are focused on locking in yield, managing duration risk, or building resilient core portfolios, bond ETFs have been seeing elevated demand this year.
In 3Q26, global fixed-income markets continue to navigate a complex backdrop as resilient growth, elevated inflation, hawkish central-bank pricing and the AI infrastructure buildout intersect. Growth remains supported by the US consumer, fiscal spending in Europe and AI-related capital investment, while inflation is expected to moderate through 2026 and into 2027.
Franklin Templeton Institute finds valuations across fixed income sectors becoming more attractive, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels—a signal to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core bond portfolios.
For most high-net-worth investors, the bond sleeve of a portfolio isn't there to generate eye-popping returns or provide cocktail party fodder. Its job is much more mainstream: support a targeted lifestyle, cover tax bills, dampen equity market volatility, and provide "dry powder" when the world turns sideways.
The S&P 500 towed an anchor for much of the summer as a historic momentum and leverage unwind under the surface dragged on the equity benchmark before breaking out to fresh records last week.
The fixed income landscape continues to offer real opportunity this year as well as persistent, events-driven uncertainty. Still, cutting through the headlines, investors can find major opportunities inside the portfolios and in adding new funds.
The risks of a rate hike have increased lately, but we don't believe we're there just yet. If the data changes—specifically if inflation comes in hotter-than-expected over the next few months—we'll likely change our view.
Among the key benefits of the ETF wrapper is the wide range of tools it gives advisors and investors to build tailored fixed income portfolios. And given today’s complex rate and inflation environment, it certainly helps to have a wide range of options available.
There’s been no summer vacation for the bond market this year. It seems there’s a new headline every day that needs to be processed and responded to. In terms of Treasuries (UST), yields at the back-end of the curve have risen in notable fashion and have resulted in rates being at levels not seen in almost twenty years in some cases.
Municipals posted their weakest July return in more than two decades. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index returned -1.85%, underperforming most investment-grade fixed-income sectors and marking just the fifth negative July return over the past 30 years.
Demand continues to outpace record supply. Municipal bonds remain an attractive income opportunity in a market where the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to remain on hold and carry is driving returns. Despite record issuance of roughly $50 billion per month, demand has remained strong.
Fifty-eight billion dollars. That’s what the Department of War just awarded Lockheed Martin for PAC-3 interceptors, the missiles that have been knocking Iranian ballistic missiles out of the sky for the past five months. It’s one of the largest munitions awards in U.S. history.
For three years, clients have asked the same question: “How do I get into SpaceX or OpenAI before the IPO?” That question just changed tense.
Our thesis remains largely unchanged. Today's “exploding” CDS spreads and bond yields are pricing an Oracle problem. The question investors should be asking isn't whether Oracle is an outlier. It clearly is. The question is whether Oracle is a preview of what happens to credit markets more broadly if AI capital spending keeps outrunning AI revenue.
San Juan, the economic hub of Puerto Rico, triggered a rush for its $121 million muni-bond sale this week, as investors seized a rare opportunity to get exposure to island.
“Sound money,” in its purest form, is money whose supply a government cannot expand at will. Under a gold standard, every dollar is a claim on a fixed weight of gold. You can’t print gold. So the government can’t monetize its deficits, and the money supply grows only as fast as miners pull metal out of the ground, historically around 1.5% a year.
The AI capital expenditure cycle remains solidly on track to eclipse the telecom boom of the late 1990s and become the largest investment cycle since the railway buildout of the 19th century in inflation-adjusted terms. T
Fixed income markets continue to adjust to an evolving policy backdrop following last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
While long-term interest rates have been trending higher driven by a combination of persistent inflation, Fed uncertainty and geopolitical conflict, earnings growth this year has been very strong. If the trend continues, earnings could continue to help equity markets outpace rising interest rate and inflation risks.
The S&P 500 was flat in July 2026 as semiconductors fell 29%, energy gained nearly 13% on higher oil, and long-term Treasury yields reached their highest levels since 2007.
Discover why higher Treasury yields, strong ETF demand, and active management are creating new opportunities in muni bonds for advisors.
Alphabet Inc. is looking to raise as much as $25 billion from its latest US investment-grade bond offering, a deal that will test investor appetite for AI-related debt following a July selloff.
High-net-worth investors and institutional managers continue to allocate heavily to muni bond ETFs to lock in attractive yields.
July 2026 was a flattish month for markets. The S&P 500 index was down slightly. Value did well, while momentum did poorly. Smallcaps, midcaps, and emerging markets, all of which have been the year’s best performers, had a bad month. Commodities, driven largely by oil prices, led the pack, as the fragile ceasefire in Iran failed to hold.
July was an eventful month for both domestic and international markets, with US-Iran tensions flaring up, increasing energy prices and changing investor expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates.
Just as important, the dollar and U.S. Treasuries have continued to behave like hedges in periods of broader market unrest (driven by geopolitics or other conditions). When risk assets come under pressure, Treasury yields have generally fallen, or the dollar has tended to find support.
Advisors and investors of all kinds are used to closely watching the outcome of each of the Federal Reserve’s meetings, given how critical interest rates are to equity and fixed income markets alike. However, the recent July Fed meeting was particularly crucial. Many were uncertain what direction the central bank would go with interest rates.
“Carnage” and “exploding” are very misleading descriptors of what is happening to hyperscaler credit spreads. Yes, the basket of CDS spreads is certainly moving upward, but it is not evenly distributed. Oracle's CDS spreads have moved by multiples, while the other four hyperscalers' CDS spreads have increased by a much more subdued amount, and from unusually tight initial levels.
It’s true enough that history rhymes, even if it doesn’t necessarily repeat. But that creates danger when we pick up resonances from the wrong episode of history, particularly in the fraught task of identifying and avoiding speculative bubbles.
U.S. equities finished lower last week as investors weighed an escalating conflict with Iran against renewed concern over the scale of AI-related spending. The technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite was the worst performer, falling 2.1 per cent, while the S&P 500, an index of the largest U.S. companies, declined 0.6 per cent.
In the current macroeconomic landscape marked by higher-for-longer interest rates, investors looking to optimize their short-term capital allocations may want to consider collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) as a higher-yielding potential alternative to traditional cash proxies like money market funds.
At the party, hosted on a hot day last July at HPS business development head John Christmas’ New Jersey beach house, bandana-clad colleagues across his teams mingled poolside with the wind at their backs. With the addition of HPS, one of the biggest names in private credit, it seemed BlackRock was set to break through in the market in a way that had eluded the asset manager for years.
Without the support of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it’s been a lethargic year in terms of performance by municipal bonds and the related ETFs, but that doesn’t mean advisors and fixed income investors should ignore this bond segment.
Discover Aberdeen’s closed-end funds (CEFs) for high yields, illiquid assets, long-term investments, and resilient income for 2026.
BlackRock Inc.’s $12.55 billion bond sale tied to a Meta Platforms Inc. data center rallied in early trading on Monday in a sign that relatively high yields on the debt ultimately attracted investors.
As markets place a greater premium on shareholder-friendly capital allocation, companies that consistently combine buybacks with dividends may be better positioned to outperform.
The narrative presented in this article is uniquely suited only to the retirement scenario. (And it neglects such complications as tax-deferred accounts, etc.) Other investing narratives will be different — for example, those of pension funds or endowment funds.
Your client needs income. Investment-grade corporate bonds are offering it in the form of yields above 5%. That's a compelling number, and you're thinking about how to position this client's portfolio. Here's the problem: That 5% shouldn't be possible right now. And that's what should worry you.
Oil has staged an impressive rebound this month as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has re-escalated. The memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 created a 60-day window for negotiations, but the diplomatic opening lasted only a few weeks. Both sides subsequently accused the other of violating the peace agreement, and military operations have resumed.
The ETF market saw a push in capital away from the concentrated U.S. tech sector to defensive broad market exposure, short duration bonds, and commodities. The shift in flows is amplified by the semiconductor market pullback, interest rate uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
In June, market news continued to be dominated by the Middle East conflict as frequent flare-ups in hostilities gave way to repeated ceasefire efforts and the signing of a high-level memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.
During periods of elevated market stress, including those that see pinched corporate bonds, collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) often outperform other corporate bond assets. Add to that, CLOs often emerge from those rough patches in strong form, delivering impressive returns a year after downturns.
From severe wildfires in northern Ontario to record heat across Europe, extreme weather is back in the headlines. Such events are becoming more frequent and intense, and the risks associated with them are testing the limits of insurability. With our research partners at Columbia Climate School, we examine how strains on the insurance system can transmit climate-related risks through the capital markets.
Kevin Warsh’s early overhaul of Federal Reserve communication and policymaking suggests investors should prepare for a higher-for-longer rate environment with greater uncertainty around policy signals.
In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.
The US 30-year bond yield is trading above 5% for the longest stretch since the dawn of the financial crisis, echoing investor concerns about a growing debt pile and sticky inflation.
The relative cheapness of Treasuries versus interest rate swaps mechanically affects how corporate bond spreads are measured, but it appears to have limited influence on how corporate bond spreads actually behave.
LPL Research analyzes China’s declining crude imports, inflation risks, and the resilient U.S. economy driving above-trend growth.
Government bonds are back in focus, as investors reassess where value lies in global fixed income. With markets wavering over how quickly interest rates will fall, sovereign debt in several developed economies is starting to look attractive again to us.
The second-quarter earnings season kicked off last week with a resounding statement from Wall Street, led by stellar results across the nation's six largest banking institutions.
AI is changing the investment landscape, but fundamentals still matter, and we remain focused on quality companies with growing free cash flow.
The first half of 2026 reinforced the importance of balance, selectivity and income generation. Franklin Income Investors Chief Investment Officer Ed Perks discusses how markets have evolved, where opportunities are emerging, and why diversification remains critical heading into the second half of the year.
As the forces shaping bond markets become more local, the opportunities become more global. From energy stress to fiscal policy to advances in AI, today’s defining market forces are likely to play out differently across regions, sectors and issuers.
The good news is real. The easy trade is not. Growth has held up, artificial intelligence investment is showing up in earnings and capital spending, and fixed income is offering yields that create serious cushion for portfolios.
The bonds sold by hyperscalers to fuel their artificial intelligence ambitions have become a drag on investor portfolios from London to Tokyo.
This paper presents the case for emerging market (EM) allocations within the broader context of global investment strategy. In a period of heightened geopolitical complexity—spanning the 2026 US-Iran conflict, challenges to globalization, political transformation and ongoing great power competition—we believe the case for engaged emerging markets exposure has never been stronger.
Although economic conditions did not change much between the first and second quarters, investors were far more bullish in the second quarter.
Corporate Credit
From the US Market Desk: Now…We Wait…
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%. The economy remains resilient and the consumer is strong.
Why Emerging Markets Debt is Back in Focus
A weaker U.S. dollar cycle is boosting the appeal of emerging market debt, creating a compelling case for investors seeking income and diversification at an opportune time for the asset class.
Getting Paid to Extend: The Case for Muni Duration
Treasury’s pivot toward long-bond buybacks gives duration buyers their first clear green light in months — and the November midterms may add a second leg.
Core Bond (Plus): What’s Under the Hood and When to Consider It
We think it’s time for investors to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core (plus) bond portfolios. Valuations have become more attractive across fixed income, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels. We share our views on when and why.
Investor Frenzy for AI Strips Safeguards From Convertible Bonds
Convertible bond investors chasing exposure to the artificial intelligence boom are giving up some of the protection they would normally demand, pushing the market toward levels of risk-taking last seen during the pandemic.
Gold Regains Its Luster
For an asset often designated as a store of value, gold volatility has been especially apparent this year. After starting off the year with a high-paced record-setting run that lifted the metal to nearly $5,600 an ounce, including a 13% rally in January alone, momentum quickly faded as tensions with Iran ratcheted higher.
Buybacks, Market Functioning, and Treasury Predictability
Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department surprised the bond market by announcing that it would at least double selected long-end bond buybacks.
Stock Market Tug of War: Earnings vs. Rates
Earnings have built a strong foundation. As we wrote earlier this month, earnings have provided a strong foundation for stocks this year. With second quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 on track to exceed 30% (excluding private investment mark-ups) and analysts continuing to raise estimates, it's safe to say this season strengthened the fundamental case for equities.
Markets Weigh Business Strength Against Consumer Weakness
Equity markets stumbled this week despite an economic backdrop that continues to show signs of broadening. While concerns about consumer strain are mounting, those worries have so far been offset by ongoing strength in business investment, particularly spending tied to artificial intelligence (AI).
The Bond Market Is Returning to the Old Normal
Yields on 30-year US bonds broke 5% last week, a level not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis. The Treasury Department bought bonds in an attempt to lower yields. It worked — for a day, then bond yields went back up. Meanwhile, in a not-exactly-unrelated development, the US national debt just passed $40 trillion.
Operation Twist
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Rising Yields May Create Opportunity Rather Than Signal a Bond Market Crisis
For the past five weeks, markets have been focused on a steady stream of corporate earnings, supported by upbeat management commentary and another quarter of strong results. But with second quarter 2026 earnings season nearing its end, investors' attention is shifting back to the macro backdrop.
Did America Just Become a Nation of Luddites?
Something strange has been happening in America lately. The Wall Street Journal says this is the summer when the U.S. became “a nation of Luddites.” The Economist calls it “the Summer of Ludd.”
The Hidden Concentration Between a Portfolio's Equity & Bond Sleeves
While it is useful to analyze holdings by asset class, a portfolio-wide view can provide additional insights. Typically, the bond sleeve and the equity sleeve are seen as entirely separate. However, they usually hold unnoticed concentrations in different companies.
The Russell Reset Nobody Saw Coming
For years, Russell index reconstitutions have been treated as a routine maintenance event. Thousands of stocks are ranked, memberships are adjusted, and markets move on
Should You Consider High-Yield Municipal Bonds?
High-yield municipal bonds are one of the best performing asset classes this year but that doesn't mean we think all investors should consider adding them to their portfolio.
Hedged Equity as a Liquid Alternative
Hedged equity as a liquid alternative uses an options-based equity strategy — specifically Swan Global Investments’ Defined Risk Strategy (DRS), in continuous operation since 1997 — as a permanent alternatives allocation that stays invested in the equity market while actively managing downside risk through LEAPS put options
Cooler Inflation Data Eases Pressure on the Fed
U.S. equities were mostly higher last week, though gains were modest and trading was quiet. The S&P 500, an index of the largest U.S. companies, rose 0.4 per cent and closed on Thursday at a new record high.
Fixed Income Demand Surges: Bond ETFs Gathered $13.2 Billion Last Week
Investor appetite for fixed income continues to expand, as evidenced by the latest weekly ETF inflows report from TD Securities. For the week ending August 14, 2026, U.S.-listed ETFs gathered $41.0 billion in total weekly net inflows, which included $13.2 billion into fixed income funds.
Housing Crisis Fuels Surge in Mortgage Muni Bond Securitizations
The nation’s affordable-housing shortage is fueling a fast-growing corner of the municipal bond market, as lenders securitize portfolios of multifamily mortgages to free up capital for new loans.
Shifting Leadership in Global Growth
Global business activity is showing signs of stabilization, but beneath the surface, the world economy remains divided. Growth momentum has improved in several major developed economies, led by a stronger U.S. expansion and a tentative recovery in parts of Europe.
Anatomy of the Private Credit Market
As private credit further cements its role as a primary source of corporate financing, it will be essential to balance opportunity with prudent risk management for long-term stability and sustainability.
Housing Crisis Fuels Surge in Mortgage Muni Bond Securitizations
The nation’s affordable-housing shortage is fueling a fast-growing corner of the municipal bond market, as lenders securitize portfolios of multifamily mortgages to free up capital for new loans.
Pimco’s Stracke Says Wealth Firms Running Shy of Private Credit
Wealth managers are beating a retreat from private credit and ramping up a search for alternatives, as they continue to reel from sudden exit restrictions at several major direct lending funds earlier this year.
Bonds vs. Bond Funds: Which is Right for You?
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to choosing between individual bonds and bond funds. The choice depends on an investor’s goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, need for predictable income, and available assets.
Strong Earnings, Softer Inflation, Happier Markets
Global equity markets continued their strong summer run this week, supported by what has been an exceptionally strong second-quarter earnings season.
U.S. State Budget Update
The first step in recovery is recognizing a problem. For decades, some U.S. states have had problems with indebtedness. But as we take stock of state finances today, we see many examples of recovery.
Micro Over Macro
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
A Market Ahead of Its Economy
Today’s market does not represent today’s economy. The ratio of market value dependent on future economic activity versus present activity has never been higher. These companies have earnings now, but those earnings stem from investments in the future, not present consumption.
Yield, Duration, & Taxes: Investors Pour Billions Into Schwab Bond ETFs
Whether fixed income investors are focused on locking in yield, managing duration risk, or building resilient core portfolios, bond ETFs have been seeing elevated demand this year.
Key Convictions: Third Quarter 2026
In 3Q26, global fixed-income markets continue to navigate a complex backdrop as resilient growth, elevated inflation, hawkish central-bank pricing and the AI infrastructure buildout intersect. Growth remains supported by the US consumer, fiscal spending in Europe and AI-related capital investment, while inflation is expected to moderate through 2026 and into 2027.
Time for Core (Plus) Bond Portfolios Again?
Franklin Templeton Institute finds valuations across fixed income sectors becoming more attractive, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels—a signal to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core bond portfolios.
Is Your Bond Strategy Built for Change?
For most high-net-worth investors, the bond sleeve of a portfolio isn't there to generate eye-popping returns or provide cocktail party fodder. Its job is much more mainstream: support a targeted lifestyle, cover tax bills, dampen equity market volatility, and provide "dry powder" when the world turns sideways.
Yields on the Rise: Do Stocks Notice?
The S&P 500 towed an anchor for much of the summer as a historic momentum and leverage unwind under the surface dragged on the equity benchmark before breaking out to fresh records last week.
American Century’s Gotelli Talks Key Muni Bonds Opportunity
The fixed income landscape continues to offer real opportunity this year as well as persistent, events-driven uncertainty. Still, cutting through the headlines, investors can find major opportunities inside the portfolios and in adding new funds.
Fed and Treasury Update: Higher-for-Longer Yields
The risks of a rate hike have increased lately, but we don't believe we're there just yet. If the data changes—specifically if inflation comes in hotter-than-expected over the next few months—we'll likely change our view.
Is it Time to Take a Closer Look at Target Maturity ETFs?
Among the key benefits of the ETF wrapper is the wide range of tools it gives advisors and investors to build tailored fixed income portfolios. And given today’s complex rate and inflation environment, it certainly helps to have a wide range of options available.
What’s Driving Treasury Yields Higher?
There’s been no summer vacation for the bond market this year. It seems there’s a new headline every day that needs to be processed and responded to. In terms of Treasuries (UST), yields at the back-end of the curve have risen in notable fashion and have resulted in rates being at levels not seen in almost twenty years in some cases.
Muni Monthly: July 2026
Municipals posted their weakest July return in more than two decades. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index returned -1.85%, underperforming most investment-grade fixed-income sectors and marking just the fifth negative July return over the past 30 years.
Why Carry Is the Strategy
Demand continues to outpace record supply. Municipal bonds remain an attractive income opportunity in a market where the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to remain on hold and carry is driving returns. Despite record issuance of roughly $50 billion per month, demand has remained strong.
The U.S. Needs Missiles Faster Than It Can Build Them
Fifty-eight billion dollars. That’s what the Department of War just awarded Lockheed Martin for PAC-3 interceptors, the missiles that have been knocking Iranian ballistic missiles out of the sky for the past five months. It’s one of the largest munitions awards in U.S. history.
The Trillion-Dollar Trio Goes Public: What Advisors Need to Know About SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI
For three years, clients have asked the same question: “How do I get into SpaceX or OpenAI before the IPO?” That question just changed tense.
Hidden Debt: Is Our Hyperscaler Thesis Wrong?
Our thesis remains largely unchanged. Today's “exploding” CDS spreads and bond yields are pricing an Oracle problem. The question investors should be asking isn't whether Oracle is an outlier. It clearly is. The question is whether Oracle is a preview of what happens to credit markets more broadly if AI capital spending keeps outrunning AI revenue.
Puerto Rico’s Capital Sees Blowout Demand for Rare Muni Sal
San Juan, the economic hub of Puerto Rico, triggered a rush for its $121 million muni-bond sale this week, as investors seized a rare opportunity to get exposure to island.
Sound Money: Be Careful What You Wish For
“Sound money,” in its purest form, is money whose supply a government cannot expand at will. Under a gold standard, every dollar is a claim on a fixed weight of gold. You can’t print gold. So the government can’t monetize its deficits, and the money supply grows only as fast as miners pull metal out of the ground, historically around 1.5% a year.
Earnings Drive the Tape
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The AI Split Between U.S. Dollar and Euro Investment Grade
The AI capital expenditure cycle remains solidly on track to eclipse the telecom boom of the late 1990s and become the largest investment cycle since the railway buildout of the 19th century in inflation-adjusted terms. T
AI Borrowing Reshapes the Bond Market
Fixed income markets continue to adjust to an evolving policy backdrop following last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Will Earnings Growth Outpace Rising Rates?
While long-term interest rates have been trending higher driven by a combination of persistent inflation, Fed uncertainty and geopolitical conflict, earnings growth this year has been very strong. If the trend continues, earnings could continue to help equity markets outpace rising interest rate and inflation risks.
July 2026 Market Update: The AI Selloff, Middle East Tensions and What it Means for Your Portfolio
The S&P 500 was flat in July 2026 as semiconductors fell 29%, energy gained nearly 13% on higher oil, and long-term Treasury yields reached their highest levels since 2007.
Higher Rates Create New Opportunities in Muni Bonds
Discover why higher Treasury yields, strong ETF demand, and active management are creating new opportunities in muni bonds for advisors.
Alphabet Is Seeking Up to $25 Billion From Latest Bond Sale
Alphabet Inc. is looking to raise as much as $25 billion from its latest US investment-grade bond offering, a deal that will test investor appetite for AI-related debt following a July selloff.
Selectivity & Quality Take Center Stage in Muni Bond ETFs
High-net-worth investors and institutional managers continue to allocate heavily to muni bond ETFs to lock in attractive yields.
QuantStreet August 2026 Letter: Sector Rotation Continues
July 2026 was a flattish month for markets. The S&P 500 index was down slightly. Value did well, while momentum did poorly. Smallcaps, midcaps, and emerging markets, all of which have been the year’s best performers, had a bad month. Commodities, driven largely by oil prices, led the pack, as the fragile ceasefire in Iran failed to hold.
July Review: Markets Navigate US-Iran Tensions, Sector Rotation and Policy Uncertainty
July was an eventful month for both domestic and international markets, with US-Iran tensions flaring up, increasing energy prices and changing investor expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates.
Still Buying America
Just as important, the dollar and U.S. Treasuries have continued to behave like hedges in periods of broader market unrest (driven by geopolitics or other conditions). When risk assets come under pressure, Treasury yields have generally fallen, or the dollar has tended to find support.
July Fed Meeting Strengthens Case for Short Duration Bonds
Advisors and investors of all kinds are used to closely watching the outcome of each of the Federal Reserve’s meetings, given how critical interest rates are to equity and fixed income markets alike. However, the recent July Fed meeting was particularly crucial. Many were uncertain what direction the central bank would go with interest rates.
Is There Really Carnage in Hyperscaler Credit?
“Carnage” and “exploding” are very misleading descriptors of what is happening to hyperscaler credit spreads. Yes, the basket of CDS spreads is certainly moving upward, but it is not evenly distributed. Oracle's CDS spreads have moved by multiples, while the other four hyperscalers' CDS spreads have increased by a much more subdued amount, and from unusually tight initial levels.
WAIT. Wut?
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
A Tale of Two Bubbles Defining a Third
It’s true enough that history rhymes, even if it doesn’t necessarily repeat. But that creates danger when we pick up resonances from the wrong episode of history, particularly in the fraught task of identifying and avoiding speculative bubbles.
Equities Slide as Iran Escalation and AI Spending Fears Grip Markets
U.S. equities finished lower last week as investors weighed an escalating conflict with Iran against renewed concern over the scale of AI-related spending. The technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite was the worst performer, falling 2.1 per cent, while the S&P 500, an index of the largest U.S. companies, declined 0.6 per cent.
Beyond Money Markets: Unlock Premium Yields With CLO ETFs
In the current macroeconomic landscape marked by higher-for-longer interest rates, investors looking to optimize their short-term capital allocations may want to consider collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) as a higher-yielding potential alternative to traditional cash proxies like money market funds.
BlackRock Sets Out for Private Credit Glory After Year of Upheaval
At the party, hosted on a hot day last July at HPS business development head John Christmas’ New Jersey beach house, bandana-clad colleagues across his teams mingled poolside with the wind at their backs. With the addition of HPS, one of the biggest names in private credit, it seemed BlackRock was set to break through in the market in a way that had eluded the asset manager for years.
Municipal Bond Juice Still Worth the Squeeze
Without the support of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it’s been a lethargic year in terms of performance by municipal bonds and the related ETFs, but that doesn’t mean advisors and fixed income investors should ignore this bond segment.
Earnings Strong. Bond Yields a Risk.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
As Uncertainty Persists, Consider Closed-End Fund Exposure
Discover Aberdeen’s closed-end funds (CEFs) for high yields, illiquid assets, long-term investments, and resilient income for 2026.
BlackRock Dodges AI Bond-Trading Flop After Offering Junk Yields
BlackRock Inc.’s $12.55 billion bond sale tied to a Meta Platforms Inc. data center rallied in early trading on Monday in a sign that relatively high yields on the debt ultimately attracted investors.
The Big Shareholder Diluters Are Out of Vogue
As markets place a greater premium on shareholder-friendly capital allocation, companies that consistently combine buybacks with dividends may be better positioned to outperform.
How to Properly Measure Risk
The narrative presented in this article is uniquely suited only to the retirement scenario. (And it neglects such complications as tax-deferred accounts, etc.) Other investing narratives will be different — for example, those of pension funds or endowment funds.
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Are Offering Real Income. That's Not Why You Should Be Nervous.
Your client needs income. Investment-grade corporate bonds are offering it in the form of yields above 5%. That's a compelling number, and you're thinking about how to position this client's portfolio. Here's the problem: That 5% shouldn't be possible right now. And that's what should worry you.
Oil Rebounds as Global Supply Risks Intensify
Oil has staged an impressive rebound this month as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has re-escalated. The memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 created a 60-day window for negotiations, but the diplomatic opening lasted only a few weeks. Both sides subsequently accused the other of violating the peace agreement, and military operations have resumed.
The Defensive Shift: This Week’s Top 10 ETF Inflows
The ETF market saw a push in capital away from the concentrated U.S. tech sector to defensive broad market exposure, short duration bonds, and commodities. The shift in flows is amplified by the semiconductor market pullback, interest rate uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Muni Monthly: June 2026
In June, market news continued to be dominated by the Middle East conflict as frequent flare-ups in hostilities gave way to repeated ceasefire efforts and the signing of a high-level memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.
For Downturn Protection, Consider CLO ETFs
During periods of elevated market stress, including those that see pinched corporate bonds, collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) often outperform other corporate bond assets. Add to that, CLOs often emerge from those rough patches in strong form, delivering impressive returns a year after downturns.
At the Edge of Insurability: When Wildfire Risk Becomes Investment Risk
From severe wildfires in northern Ontario to record heat across Europe, extreme weather is back in the headlines. Such events are becoming more frequent and intense, and the risks associated with them are testing the limits of insurability. With our research partners at Columbia Climate School, we examine how strains on the insurance system can transmit climate-related risks through the capital markets.
A New ‘Warsh’ Cycle
Kevin Warsh’s early overhaul of Federal Reserve communication and policymaking suggests investors should prepare for a higher-for-longer rate environment with greater uncertainty around policy signals.
Old-Fashioned Bond Math for a New-Fashioned Fed
In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.
US 30-Year Yield Raises Alarm in Longest Run Above 5% Since 2007
The US 30-year bond yield is trading above 5% for the longest stretch since the dawn of the financial crisis, echoing investor concerns about a growing debt pile and sticky inflation.
Rich Spreads, Cheap Treasuries, and an Incomplete Explanation
The relative cheapness of Treasuries versus interest rate swaps mechanically affects how corporate bond spreads are measured, but it appears to have limited influence on how corporate bond spreads actually behave.
Froth Coming Out. Tape Remains Resilient.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
China Holds Keys to Post-War Oil Prices
LPL Research analyzes China’s declining crude imports, inflation risks, and the resilient U.S. economy driving above-trend growth.
U.S. Investors Looking for Global Fixed Income Exposure: Try Government Bonds, Selective Credit Picks
Government bonds are back in focus, as investors reassess where value lies in global fixed income. With markets wavering over how quickly interest rates will fall, sovereign debt in several developed economies is starting to look attractive again to us.
A Stellar Start: Big Banks Defy Credit Fears to Kick Off Q2 Earnings
The second-quarter earnings season kicked off last week with a resounding statement from Wall Street, led by stellar results across the nation's six largest banking institutions.
Q3 Equity Outlook: AI: A Paradigm Shift
AI is changing the investment landscape, but fundamentals still matter, and we remain focused on quality companies with growing free cash flow.
Staying Nimble and Focused on Income as Uncertainty Persists
The first half of 2026 reinforced the importance of balance, selectivity and income generation. Franklin Income Investors Chief Investment Officer Ed Perks discusses how markets have evolved, where opportunities are emerging, and why diversification remains critical heading into the second half of the year.
Now More than Ever: The Case for Global Bonds
As the forces shaping bond markets become more local, the opportunities become more global. From energy stress to fiscal policy to advances in AI, today’s defining market forces are likely to play out differently across regions, sectors and issuers.
Getting Serious in Summer Markets
The good news is real. The easy trade is not. Growth has held up, artificial intelligence investment is showing up in earnings and capital spending, and fixed income is offering yields that create serious cushion for portfolios.
Hyperscalers Are Dragging Down Bond Gauges Across Global Markets
The bonds sold by hyperscalers to fuel their artificial intelligence ambitions have become a drag on investor portfolios from London to Tokyo.
Expanding Global Opportunities
This paper presents the case for emerging market (EM) allocations within the broader context of global investment strategy. In a period of heightened geopolitical complexity—spanning the 2026 US-Iran conflict, challenges to globalization, political transformation and ongoing great power competition—we believe the case for engaged emerging markets exposure has never been stronger.
Q3 Strategic Income Outlook: Perception Is Reality
Although economic conditions did not change much between the first and second quarters, investors were far more bullish in the second quarter.