Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
President Donald Trump is attempting the most sweeping transformation of government and policy in decades. The White House is moving furiously to slash spending, expand tariffs, repeal regulations and rewrite tax rules.
Europe’s plan to rearm in the face of Russian aggression and US detachment has already delivered a bonanza to equity investors. Credit funds are scrambling to get a share of the windfall, too.
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas spotlights the firm’s innovative ADRhedged ETFs and explains the rationale for removing currency exposure. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang discusses several recent ETF launches, including offerings from State Street, VistaShares, Quantify Funds, and Roundhill.
US Treasuries surged and investors boosted their bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts Monday as fear of a economic slowdown took hold across US markets.
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
Emerging-market stocks declined for a second day and currencies halted a four-day rally as concerns grew that China’s deflation is spreading to its consumer economy and Donald Trump’s tariffs threaten US growth.
Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that.
The value today of quality bond exposure in your high yield portfolio.
One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE.
As daily headlines drive volatility, the market has avoided overreacting thus far.
We manage risk tactically over the short-term by investing across a broad array of themes and asset classes including cash.
Unlike most of the rest of the world, I will attempt to minimize all there is to say about the beginning of the next 4 years, as the persistent yack and what to make of it reverberates in all corners of the financial globe.
A holistic approach may help insurance investors navigate an expansive opportunity set.
February’s market turbulence saw investors pivot toward defensive strategies as policy uncertainty intensified, driving a broad market rotation from mega-cap tech stocks to bonds, gold, and international equities.
After a record year for fixed income ETFs in 2024, investors are turning to ultra-short bond ETFs, the safest fixed income ETFs available.
Should you avoid lower-rated, riskier investments like high-yield corporate bonds or bank loans? Not necessarily, but you should understand the risks.
In the report, John Kerschner, Head of US Securitized Products & Portfolio Manager, and John Lloyd, Lead for the Multi-Sector Credit Strategies & Portfolio Manager, review the best-performing U.S. fixed income sectors of 2024 – what worked, what didn’t, and what it means for investors going forward.
We recently sat down with Justin Owens, our senior director and co-head of strategic asset allocation, to discuss the next phase of liability-driven investing (LDI) and the key trends driving this evolution. Below is a recap of our conversation.
Investors should not be overly distracted by the recent spate of political headlines and social media updates.
When constructing a target-date fund (TDF) glide path, providers have many decisions to make, such as what asset classes to include, when to include them, and how much to allocate to each.
In a market as broad, opaque and inefficient as the municipal bond market, in which compliance oversight and efficiency are paramount, these initial efficiency gains are just the tip of what may prove to be a transformative technology iceberg.
With our most reliable valuation measures more extreme than both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks, we continue to believe that the stock market is tracing out the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history.
Attractive yields and a broad opportunity set bolster active bond investments amid today’s uncertain macroeconomic and market outlook.
Taxable municipal bonds may be an attractive option for investors in lower tax brackets, but there are things investors should know before making a decision.
Chief Investment Officer of Global Asset Allocation, Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., outlines the investment themes and return expectations from our new 10-year outlook.
Long maturity treasuries can provide downside protection to offset equity risk, in our view.
Rising inflation, the potential added pressure from tariffs, and ongoing volatility create a strong backdrop for gold appreciation this year.
“Know what you own” is one of the many phrases we use to help describe and define fixed income, the components of bonds, and the characteristics that affect an investor.
Private credit has been one of the most talked-about segments in fixed income markets over the last few years.
There's plenty of uncertainty due to the threat of tariffs, but to counter volatility, market experts are recommending bonds.
Building a bond portfolio these days isn’t easy. Interest rates have been volatile. Credit spreads are tight. And sweeping change in US fiscal, trade, and regulatory policy is underway. We think securitized assets deserve a closer look.
At the same time, the Fed has mostly ignored the impact of easy financial conditions—the combination of stock, bond, and credit conditions—offsetting increases in interest rates by bolstering wealth and confidence.
Microsoft Corp. is bigger than most countries’ whole stock markets and its bond rating would be the envy of many nations.
Jeremy Grantham’s Boston-based investment firm is tapping into popular demand on Wall Street for emerging-market strategies that avoid China altogether, as investors prep for fresh disruptions across global supply chains on the back of Donald Trump’s combative trade posture.
Recent developments may just offer advisors and investors fresh pathways with which to attain higher yield in 2025.
As the sequel unfolds, particular industry sectors in affected countries are likely to be more impacted. Global Head of Credit Research Mike Talaga, Head of EMEA Credit Research James Maxwell, and Client Portfolio Manager Celia Soares discuss the implications for credit investors.
Municipal bonds were a hot topic at last week’s VettaFi Fixed Income Symposium — more than I expected them to be.
As these two strategies evolve, financial advisors must understand their nuances to align client portfolios with current market conditions and future financial goals.
Alex Mackey of MFS delved into the active bond strategies underpinning MFSB and MFSM in the recent Q1 2025 Fixed Income Symposium.
Adding cash-flow-matched bond strategies to a total return strategy appears to improve total return relative to risk by reducing the likelihood of poor outcomes.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the MFS Active Core Plus Bond ETF (MFSB) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Some allocators may focus their search efforts on corporate credit segments or simply a portfolio that can opportunistically trade across fixed income sectors.
In today’s era of automation, some situations demand a more active approach. Municipal bond investing is one.
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
When constructing a portfolio, investors who are seeking income have a range of options to choose from.
The evolving high-yield markets make the case for a global, multi-sector approach to generating income.
Apollo Global Management Inc.’s plan to tap wallets of rich clients is paying off, with its wealth business raking in record capital last year and boosting assets from the sector 50%.
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
A small band of Wall Street skeptics are moving to protect their credit portfolios against a market priced like nothing in the economy could possibly go wrong.
You’ve likely heard the saying “when the going gets tough, the tough get going.” A similar principle can apply to investing: “when the going gets tough, stay in the market.”
Buried in a rote US Treasury survey released on the eve of the latest holiday weekend was a question that all of Wall Street wants the answer to: What’s the Federal Reserve’s plan once it’s done drawing down its crisis-era bond holdings?
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Four strategies for navigating crosswinds in the municipal bond market.
Bonds look attractive again after the most recent rise in interest rates. Markets are likely to continue to overreact to every new employment report and inflation reading, keeping interest rate volatility elevated as yields dance up and down with each data point.
US bond funds actively managed by industry heavyweights like Pacific Investment Management Co. attracted the most new investment last year as money returned after a two-year dry spell.
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
As growth extends to more regions, we see expanding opportunities across countries and assets.
When investors have been looking to allocate funds within the U.S. fixed income markets, credit has seemingly been viewed as being perhaps too “rich,” or expensive, in relative terms.
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
Friday’s rip-roaring jobs report has pushed the betting markets to price in a single rate cut for the entire year of 2025.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Uncertainty with regard to interest rate policy warrants an active management strategy inherent in the Vanguard Short Duration Bond ETF.
Active fixed income could stand out in 2025, with active offering a way to refresh bond portfolios and allocations.
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
I’m not ready to concede that active bests the benchmarks by adding what I consider alpha. For example, “positioning the fund to have more credit risk than its benchmark” is a risk premium much in the same way that the equity risk premium produced returns over the risk-free rate. The credit risk premium may be worth it, but that’s beta, not alpha.
We are pro-risk, with the biggest overweight in U.S. stocks, yet eye three areas that could spur a view change.
US Treasuries plunged as evidence of a resilient labor market pushed traders to shift their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate cut to the second half of the year.
After cementing its position as the dominant player in the US for a niche but highly lucrative investment vehicle, Janus Henderson is looking to try its luck in Europe.
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
The selloffs that keep flaring in the world’s bond markets are pushing yields toward key thresholds amid escalating worries about elevated inflation, tempestuous politics and swelling government debts.
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
US mortgage rates edged up to just shy of 7% at the turn of year and a gauge of home-purchase applications tumbled to the lowest level since February, adding to evidence of a struggling housing market.
Corporate Credit
Schwab Market Perspective: Recession Risk Rising?
Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
How To Survive Falling Markets
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
Quality Is On Sale
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
Rebuilding Resilience in 60/40 Portfolios
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets
President Donald Trump is attempting the most sweeping transformation of government and policy in decades. The White House is moving furiously to slash spending, expand tariffs, repeal regulations and rewrite tax rules.
As Europe Rearms, Bond Funds Are Ripping Up the Rule Book
Europe’s plan to rearm in the face of Russian aggression and US detachment has already delivered a bonanza to equity investors. Credit funds are scrambling to get a share of the windfall, too.
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas Spotlights Currency Hedged Single Stock ETFs
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas spotlights the firm’s innovative ADRhedged ETFs and explains the rationale for removing currency exposure. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang discusses several recent ETF launches, including offerings from State Street, VistaShares, Quantify Funds, and Roundhill.
US Bonds Rose as Recession Angst Fuels Haven Demand
US Treasuries surged and investors boosted their bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts Monday as fear of a economic slowdown took hold across US markets.
Despite Recent Volatility, We Maintain Our Constructive Outlook
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
Emerging Markets Decline Amid China Deflation, US Growth Worries
Emerging-market stocks declined for a second day and currencies halted a four-day rally as concerns grew that China’s deflation is spreading to its consumer economy and Donald Trump’s tariffs threaten US growth.
Gimme Credit
Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that.
A High-Quality Moment in High Yield
The value today of quality bond exposure in your high yield portfolio.
CAPE-5: A Different Measure Of Valuation
One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE.
Strength of US Economy Continues to Offer Stability
As daily headlines drive volatility, the market has avoided overreacting thus far.
The March 2025 Dashboard: Our Three Layers of Risk Management
We manage risk tactically over the short-term by investing across a broad array of themes and asset classes including cash.
Anarchy in the USA
Unlike most of the rest of the world, I will attempt to minimize all there is to say about the beginning of the next 4 years, as the persistent yack and what to make of it reverberates in all corners of the financial globe.
Commercial Real Estate Debt: Time for Insurers to Take a Closer Look?
A holistic approach may help insurance investors navigate an expansive opportunity set.
Wall Street Goes Defensive as Policy Uncertainty Rattles Markets
February’s market turbulence saw investors pivot toward defensive strategies as policy uncertainty intensified, driving a broad market rotation from mega-cap tech stocks to bonds, gold, and international equities.
Being Short Has Its ETF Benefits
After a record year for fixed income ETFs in 2024, investors are turning to ultra-short bond ETFs, the safest fixed income ETFs available.
Fixed Income: Taking Risk in Moderation
Should you avoid lower-rated, riskier investments like high-yield corporate bonds or bank loans? Not necessarily, but you should understand the risks.
Top-Performing U.S. Fixed Income Sectors of 2024: Securitized Outpaces the Agg
In the report, John Kerschner, Head of US Securitized Products & Portfolio Manager, and John Lloyd, Lead for the Multi-Sector Credit Strategies & Portfolio Manager, review the best-performing U.S. fixed income sectors of 2024 – what worked, what didn’t, and what it means for investors going forward.
The Future of Liability-Driven Investing
We recently sat down with Justin Owens, our senior director and co-head of strategic asset allocation, to discuss the next phase of liability-driven investing (LDI) and the key trends driving this evolution. Below is a recap of our conversation.
Do Not Let the Headlines Distract: The Private Sector Drives the U.S. Economy & Markets
Investors should not be overly distracted by the recent spate of political headlines and social media updates.
TDF Glide-Path Essentials: Setting the Right Starting Point
When constructing a target-date fund (TDF) glide path, providers have many decisions to make, such as what asset classes to include, when to include them, and how much to allocate to each.
Bringing Order to Chaos: AI in the Municipal Bond Market
In a market as broad, opaque and inefficient as the municipal bond market, in which compliance oversight and efficiency are paramount, these initial efficiency gains are just the tip of what may prove to be a transformative technology iceberg.
The Government Deficits Land in the Deepest Pockets
With our most reliable valuation measures more extreme than both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks, we continue to believe that the stock market is tracing out the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history.
Income Fund Update: Navigating Uncertainty in 2025
Attractive yields and a broad opportunity set bolster active bond investments amid today’s uncertain macroeconomic and market outlook.
5 Things to Consider About Taxable Municipal Bonds
Taxable municipal bonds may be an attractive option for investors in lower tax brackets, but there are things investors should know before making a decision.
Capital Market Assumptions: 10-Year Outlook
Chief Investment Officer of Global Asset Allocation, Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., outlines the investment themes and return expectations from our new 10-year outlook.
Of Stocks and Bonds
Long maturity treasuries can provide downside protection to offset equity risk, in our view.
In a Bright Year for Gold, NBCM Captures Gains
Rising inflation, the potential added pressure from tariffs, and ongoing volatility create a strong backdrop for gold appreciation this year.
Know What You Own
“Know what you own” is one of the many phrases we use to help describe and define fixed income, the components of bonds, and the characteristics that affect an investor.
Public vs. Private Credit: Finding Their Lanes in 2025
Private credit has been one of the most talked-about segments in fixed income markets over the last few years.
Uncertainty Surrounding Tariffs Opens Opportunity for Bonds
There's plenty of uncertainty due to the threat of tariffs, but to counter volatility, market experts are recommending bonds.
Why It May Be Time to Lean Into Securitized Assets
Building a bond portfolio these days isn’t easy. Interest rates have been volatile. Credit spreads are tight. And sweeping change in US fiscal, trade, and regulatory policy is underway. We think securitized assets deserve a closer look.
Navigating the (New) Conundrum
At the same time, the Fed has mostly ignored the impact of easy financial conditions—the combination of stock, bond, and credit conditions—offsetting increases in interest rates by bolstering wealth and confidence.
DoubleLine Asks Whether Microsoft Debt Is Safer Than Treasuries
Microsoft Corp. is bigger than most countries’ whole stock markets and its bond rating would be the envy of many nations.
Jeremy Grantham’s GMO Debuts China-Dodging ETF as Trade Tensions Fester
Jeremy Grantham’s Boston-based investment firm is tapping into popular demand on Wall Street for emerging-market strategies that avoid China altogether, as investors prep for fresh disruptions across global supply chains on the back of Donald Trump’s combative trade posture.
Money Market ETFs: New Ways to Reach for Yield in 2025
Recent developments may just offer advisors and investors fresh pathways with which to attain higher yield in 2025.
Tariff Wars II: The Sequel Impacting Trade and Industry Sectors in Credit
As the sequel unfolds, particular industry sectors in affected countries are likely to be more impacted. Global Head of Credit Research Mike Talaga, Head of EMEA Credit Research James Maxwell, and Client Portfolio Manager Celia Soares discuss the implications for credit investors.
Municipal Bonds Favored by Many Advisors
Municipal bonds were a hot topic at last week’s VettaFi Fixed Income Symposium — more than I expected them to be.
Direct Lending vs. Asset-Based Lending: An Analysis of Private Credit Markets
As these two strategies evolve, financial advisors must understand their nuances to align client portfolios with current market conditions and future financial goals.
MFS Brings Signature Bond Mutual Fund Strategies to ETFs
Alex Mackey of MFS delved into the active bond strategies underpinning MFSB and MFSM in the recent Q1 2025 Fixed Income Symposium.
Putting ‘Fixed Income’ Back Into Fixed Income: Cash-Flow-Matched Bond Strategies for Retirees
Adding cash-flow-matched bond strategies to a total return strategy appears to improve total return relative to risk by reducing the likelihood of poor outcomes.
MFS Active Core Plus Bond ETF (MFSB)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the MFS Active Core Plus Bond ETF (MFSB) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Three Reasons to Consider Dedicated Emerging Market Debt Exposure
Some allocators may focus their search efforts on corporate credit segments or simply a portfolio that can opportunistically trade across fixed income sectors.
Three Reasons Why It Pays to Be Active as a Muni Investor
In today’s era of automation, some situations demand a more active approach. Municipal bond investing is one.
Investors See High-Grade Debt, MBS as Top Bets of 2025
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
Potential Impact of Tariffs Weighing on Markets, Corporations
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Principal, Pimco Bet on Debt From Riskier High-Grade Companies
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
What the U.S. Tariffs Mean for Investors
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Stocks Rally in Early ’25, New Winners Emerge
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
Income-Producing Assets
When constructing a portfolio, investors who are seeking income have a range of options to choose from.
In the Hunt for Income, It’s Wise to Broaden Your Horizons
The evolving high-yield markets make the case for a global, multi-sector approach to generating income.
Apollo Raises Record From Private Wealth as Credit Grows
Apollo Global Management Inc.’s plan to tap wallets of rich clients is paying off, with its wealth business raking in record capital last year and boosting assets from the sector 50%.
Quarterly Trading Report – Q4 2024: Volatility returns
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
Are Preferred Securities Still Attractive?
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
Credit Skeptics Place a $10 Billion Bet in High-Priced Market
A small band of Wall Street skeptics are moving to protect their credit portfolios against a market priced like nothing in the economy could possibly go wrong.
Insights From our Q4 2024 Economic and Market Review
You’ve likely heard the saying “when the going gets tough, the tough get going.” A similar principle can apply to investing: “when the going gets tough, stay in the market.”
Fed’s Balance-Sheet Plans Mystify Wall Street as Officials Meet
Buried in a rote US Treasury survey released on the eve of the latest holiday weekend was a question that all of Wall Street wants the answer to: What’s the Federal Reserve’s plan once it’s done drawing down its crisis-era bond holdings?
The Opportunity Right in Front of Investors
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Missing the Forest For the Tree: Lumen R4A Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Municipal Outlook 2025: Battling Headwinds, Harnessing Tailwinds
Four strategies for navigating crosswinds in the municipal bond market.
Bonds Beckon with Higher Yields
Bonds look attractive again after the most recent rise in interest rates. Markets are likely to continue to overreact to every new employment report and inflation reading, keeping interest rate volatility elevated as yields dance up and down with each data point.
Pimco, Dodge & Cox Lead Revival in Actively Managed Bond Funds
US bond funds actively managed by industry heavyweights like Pacific Investment Management Co. attracted the most new investment last year as money returned after a two-year dry spell.
Not Time Yet for Stocks to Worry About Rising Rates
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
Multi-Asset 2025 Outlook: Expanding Horizons
As growth extends to more regions, we see expanding opportunities across countries and assets.
Just How 'Rich' Is U.S. Credit?
When investors have been looking to allocate funds within the U.S. fixed income markets, credit has seemingly been viewed as being perhaps too “rich,” or expensive, in relative terms.
2025 Market Outlook: Rational Exuberance?
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
Are California Fires a Risk to the Muni Market?
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
2025 Credit Outlook: On Firm Ground, Despite Shifting Political Sands
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
Active Fixed Income in 2025: Another Golden Year Ahead
Friday’s rip-roaring jobs report has pushed the betting markets to price in a single rate cut for the entire year of 2025.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Bonds – The Dual Benefit
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Expect Innovation Led American Exceptionalism to Continue
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Amid Rate Uncertainty, Shorten Duration With This Active ETF
Uncertainty with regard to interest rate policy warrants an active management strategy inherent in the Vanguard Short Duration Bond ETF.
The Case for Active Fixed Income in 2025
Active fixed income could stand out in 2025, with active offering a way to refresh bond portfolios and allocations.
Private Credit Outlook: Expanding the Universe
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
Examining the Case for Active Bond Investing
I’m not ready to concede that active bests the benchmarks by adding what I consider alpha. For example, “positioning the fund to have more credit risk than its benchmark” is a risk premium much in the same way that the equity risk premium produced returns over the risk-free rate. The credit risk premium may be worth it, but that’s beta, not alpha.
Triggers to Change Our Pro-Risk View
We are pro-risk, with the biggest overweight in U.S. stocks, yet eye three areas that could spur a view change.
US 30-Year Yield Hits 5% as Traders Push Back Next Fed Rate Cut
US Treasuries plunged as evidence of a resilient labor market pushed traders to shift their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate cut to the second half of the year.
Janus Henderson Takes CLO-Tracking Fund to Europe After US Win
After cementing its position as the dominant player in the US for a niche but highly lucrative investment vehicle, Janus Henderson is looking to try its luck in Europe.
With New Risks Surfacing, How Should Investors Position Portfolios in 2025?
US equities were up notably in 2024, due to a strong economy, accelerating earnings growth, US election results, and AI/mega-cap strength.
Q4 Recap: US Growth Closes the Year on Top
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
Global Bond Selloff Leaves US Treasury Yields Flirting With 5%
The selloffs that keep flaring in the world’s bond markets are pushing yields toward key thresholds amid escalating worries about elevated inflation, tempestuous politics and swelling government debts.
The January 25 Dashboard: Our 3 Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Just Shy of 7% Bridles Home Purchases
US mortgage rates edged up to just shy of 7% at the turn of year and a gauge of home-purchase applications tumbled to the lowest level since February, adding to evidence of a struggling housing market.