To improve potential returns and mitigate risks, investors should choose from the widest range of opportunities.
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth. This achievement served as a powerful metaphor for the year: the improbable not only became possible but redefined expectations.
China’s economic ascent over the past four decades has been a remarkable story of growth, driven by several factors.
There are not many attractive opportunities in the US large-cap space. History suggests the market is overdue for a correction.
We examine how a potentially complex bond market in 2025 could still offer opportunities in high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and inflation-protected securities.
Strong 2024 performance may be tough to replicate given tight credit spreads, but we still have a favorable view on corporate bond investments given the strong economy.
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
Just a few short years (months?) ago, few would have believed it possible. But it happened: Bitcoin has traded above $100,000 for the first time ever.
Five of Franklin Templeton’s specialist investment managers provide their annual outlooks for the global economy and key asset classes, including global equities; global fixed income; global infrastructure; the macro fixed income environment; municipal bond market; high yield bond market; small cap equities; U.S. dollar; U.S. economy; and U.S. equities.
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride.
The bond market is caught between the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates and the risk of higher inflation and federal debt levels.
Assets in money market funds reached an all-time high of $7 trillion this past month. Now that rates are moving lower, money market yields may not be as attractive to many investors and assets may gradually leave money funds.
While politics garner headlines, fundamentals drive the market over the long term.
BlackRock Inc. agreed to buy HPS Investment Partners in an all-stock deal valued at roughly $12 billion, a purchase that will propel the world’s largest asset manager into the highest ranks of private credit.
The 2024 wild ride has proven to be a continuation of last year’s.
Astoria rounds up its 10 ETFs for 2025, providing unique thought leadership and actionable investment ideas.
Big banks have been warning their investors about the competition they face from private credit, electronic market makers and others for some time.
Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns.
The boom in portfolio trading, where investors can buy or sell scores of corporate bonds with just a few clicks of a mouse, is fueling mega trades that were rare in credit markets just a few years ago.
You're interested in investing in municipal bonds, but which type—general obligation or revenue—is best for you? We break it down.
Credit investors squeezed by the tightest spreads in almost 20 years are opting for bare-bones strategies, creating a boom for Europe’s fixed-maturity funds.
On whole, EM growth has been resilient, while inflation has fallen closer to normal levels.
For most of the last fifty years, fixed income investing has been characterized by owning some combination of Municipals, Corporates, Treasuries and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin reviewed the latest inflation numbers from Canada.
For investors looking to get ahead of the greater bond market, Eaton Vance's Total Return Bond ETF can do the trick.
This week, at the North American Blockchain Summit in Dallas, Texas, I had the distinct privilege of moderating a fireside chat with former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Rick Raczkowski, PM, Relative Return Team, Loomis, Sayles & Company, discussed how the team views fixed income investing looking ahead.
The world’s biggest private credit managers are turning to an obscure investment product to help raise billions from deep-pocketed insurance companies, testing the limits of industry safeguards meant to curb risk.
Uncertainty ahead of the election may have resulted in lower corporate capex and M&A trends, but hope abounds that 2025 could bring about renewed animal spirits.
Blackstone Inc.’s main private credit fund stormed the investment-grade bond market to raise a combined $1.5 billion in a single day, adding to the rush of direct lenders trying to lock in cheaper financing costs.
The post-election stock market is already giving investors a wild ride. Big individual stock selloffs, massive rallies, and a dizzying array of market narratives built on Wall Street’s best attempts to read President-elect Donald Trump’s mind.
Many of the myths and controversies surrounding the equity risk premium (ERP) are rooted in semantics: The same term is used for multiple purposes.
Why the equity market rally following the U.S. presidential election could continue into year-end.
Vanguard has a pair of bond options if fixed income investors are looking to get active with their portfolio.
The inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned, broadening potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.
For most of the last fifty years, fixed income investing has been characterized by owning some combination of Municipals, Corporates, Treasuries and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities which has worked well with periods of secular disinflation.
We seek to capitalize on today’s attractive yields while staying mindful of economic and market uncertainties.
Nouriel Roubini is seizing on Donald Trump’s inflation-threatening policy agenda to make a case for an alternative haven trade to Treasuries in a world of elevated volatility.
Balancing credit risk with interest-rate risk in a dynamically managed portfolio can be an all-weather approach.
Change is the sum of fundamental trends, the gradual elimination of accumulated extremes, and the random arrival of new shocks.
Municipal bonds broke their winning streak in October, posting negative total returns alongside broader fixed income assets.
U.S. rate cuts of up to 200bps are anticipated by the end of 2025 but with significant further downside if recession risks materialize.
Emerging-market (EM) corporates have a track record of resilience across market cycles.
With a "Red Sweep" in Washington likely, markets are now pricing in a more aggressive policy agenda.
Investors are piling into US leveraged loan ETFs, betting that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will potentially boost inflation and push the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer.
Today is Veterans Day. My father served in the army during the Vietnam War. He lives in Long Island, New York, and I am proud of his service.
In the report, Global Head of Fixed Income Jim Cielinski and Head of Global Short Duration Daniel Siluk believe navigating the change in rate regimes has grown more complicated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) as they must now consider the ramifications of Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies.
If we had to choose one indicator to watch over the next few months, it would be weekly initial jobless claims.
Investors have been married to their money market funds for the better part of the last two years.
Better than expected economic data drove interest rates higher, changing the market narrative and contributing to an equity market pullback early in the month. This unraveled expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and resulted in real rates moving higher. The 10-year Treasury has moved up 48 basis points, ending the month at 4.27%.
Credit risk fell in reaction to Donald Trump’s US presidential win, even though his presidency may be marred by tariffs and possible trade wars.
U.S. equity-market leadership reversed course during the third quarter of 2024, with small cap stocks outperforming their large cap counterparts and the value factor beating the growth factor.
Treasuries fell as a strong report on services ahead of Thursday’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision added to volatility around the US election.
Here we are, another calendar quarter down with one more to go in 2024, and investors have yet to see a “hard landing” emerge.
The most common questions we’ve been asked as the election approaches are generally about the Federal debt and deficits. Many investors worry about a looming “day of reckoning” for US debt. They fear the US’s fiscal imprudence will eventually force a sudden and dramatic repricing of US debt. In this insight, we explore the modern history of US debt to GDP across several Presidential administrations and outline why investors should not be worried about a financial apocalyptic abyss.
Although investing in in-state municipal bonds may have tax advantages, there can be good reasons to buy out-of-state munis.
Equities continued to climb in Q3, with fixed income remaining steady despite international conflicts, inflationary pressure, and election-related uncertainty in the United States.
To understand the wave of bank partnerships with private-credit fund managers during the past year or so, think back to the boom in mortgage lending through securitization in the early 2000s. The same forces are at work: a huge demand for finance, limited and costly bank capital and investment bankers’ ingenuity and desire to generate business.
Yields have risen from the dead since their recent lows in mid-September presenting investors with an opportunity that many were scared had disappeared following the FOMC’s 50 basis point rate cut at their last meeting.
Investment grade bonds have long been synonymous with a “core” fixed income allocation, but we believe a flexible strategy also belongs in most bond portfolios, as managers can adjust their exposure based on market conditions.
Despite recent headwinds from a strong U.S. dollar, EM local currency bonds present a compelling investment opportunity.
The US presidential election Nov. 5 is shaping up to be the mother of event risks so you’d think the safest of all havens would be holding up. But it’s not — and that’s only one of the notable anomalies springing up in financial markets. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries have risen nearly 70 basis points since the Federal Reserve's punchy half-point initial rate cut on Sept. 17.
Normalization seems to be in its final stage, with the Fed expected to continue cutting rates.
An independent central bank supports better economic and market outcomes.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Fidelity Corporate Bond ETF (FCOR) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
We don’t talk about China enough. I suspect this is for several reasons. First, because the country is so incomprehensibly big and populous. Second, it has been an economic miracle. Many Chinese enthusiasts just see a straight line projection of their growth. To the moon, Alice!
The Internal Revenue Service has announced new tax brackets for 2025, making now an ideal time to revisit the benefits of muni bond ETFs.
Financial markets moved higher yet again in the third quarter of 2024, and this time everyone joined in!
Many investors today use EM debt for the wrong reasons, manage it imprudently, or overlook the best parts.
Vanguard Group Inc. sees more opportunities in the lowest rung of investment-grade bonds, even as spreads for triple-B notes reached their tightest since 1998 last week.
The FOMC lowered the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points at their September meeting. This was the first cut in over four years and the start of what is expected to be a multi-year easing cycle.
Agency bonds issued by government-sponsored enterprises can offer slightly higher yields than U.S. Treasury bonds, without requiring bondholders to take on too much additional risk.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the T. Rowe Price QM U.S. Bond ETF (TAGG) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Rather than go back and reminisce about the articles I’m most proud of, I think a better exercise is to look at those I got wrong and reflect on what might be learned.
Price action in some of the world’s most risk-sensitive assets is signaling concern that the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin lowering interest rates may have been premature — or unsustainable.
The tendency to blindly follow these rules has led investors towards prematurely de-risking and over-estimating the likelihood of recession.
Markets changed character to broad-based optimism relating to the economy. The economic picture began to come into focus with inflation continuing to moderate as the economy maintains steady growth and employment. The result was a stark turnaround for economically integrated or interest rate sensitive assets, which resulted in a great quarter for diversified multi-asset portfolios. New Frontier sets a major milestone in Q4, marking 20 years of investing at the end of October.
One of most dangerous habits of a speculative crowd is the tendency to use unconditional averages and unconditional probabilities regardless of how extreme market conditions have become. This is like stepping into a house with two rooms, one with the temperature at 0 degrees and one at 140 degrees, and expecting a temperature of 70 either way.
When BlackRock Inc. completed its initial public offering in 1999, it fell a bit flat. There was no first day pop; Founder and Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink didn’t even get to ring the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Valued at just under $900 million, the firm was one of 30 large investment-managers in the US, managing $165 billion of assets.
As Boeing Co. lurches from one crisis to the next, there’s been one constant for the embattled planemaker: Its predicament appears to be only getting worse.
Has the Federal Reserve achieved an economic "soft landing"? A resilient U.S. economy suggests it may have.
Global equity markets continued to rally throughout the third quarter, with strong positive stock performance from the U.S., international developed, and emerging markets. The two biggest narratives that have unfolded recently center on the U.S. and China.
Interest rates are falling but growth is holding up. Still, we see ways to proactively shore up private allocations.
Bond investors are going on defense as the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cutting path turns more uncertain.
Take a snapshot of markets right now, and it’s a picture of health. Stocks are at records, corporate bonds show no signs of worry and commodities remain buoyant on global economic optimism.
For decades, a key component of many investors’ portfolios was a fixed income ladder. It was intended to provide ballast to the more volatile equity allocation and help reduce interest-rate risk.
Credit indices rallied during the third quarter, despite a variety of economic headwinds, and it appears FOMO (fear of missing out) is fueling the bullish sentiment more than fundamentals.
Quarterly recap: Fed rate cut and Chinese stimulus take the spotlight.
Foreign investors have been buying more US corporate bonds, a trend that will likely continue as Federal Reserve monetary easing lowers the cost of hedging and investors hunt for yield.
We have openly promoted increasing duration over the last several months. An increase may seem like an odd “wish” as it implies taking on greater price risk.
Corporate Credit
Seeking Sterling Bond Exposure? Look Beyond the UK
To improve potential returns and mitigate risks, investors should choose from the widest range of opportunities.
2025 Annual Global Market Outlook: The Mechazilla Moment
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth. This achievement served as a powerful metaphor for the year: the improbable not only became possible but redefined expectations.
Watching China’s Economic Miracle (and Relevance) Fade Before Our Eyes
China’s economic ascent over the past four decades has been a remarkable story of growth, driven by several factors.
Valuations Have Richened, But Areas Outside of Large-Caps Remain Attractive
There are not many attractive opportunities in the US large-cap space. History suggests the market is overdue for a correction.
Bond Market Opportunities for Investors in 2025
We examine how a potentially complex bond market in 2025 could still offer opportunities in high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and inflation-protected securities.
2025 Corporate Bond Outlook
Strong 2024 performance may be tough to replicate given tight credit spreads, but we still have a favorable view on corporate bond investments given the strong economy.
2025 Municipal Bond Outlook
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
Bitcoin’s Rise to $100,000 Signals Global Adoption Shift
Just a few short years (months?) ago, few would have believed it possible. But it happened: Bitcoin has traded above $100,000 for the first time ever.
Franklin Templeton’s 2025 Outlooks for Equities and Fixed Income Sectors
Five of Franklin Templeton’s specialist investment managers provide their annual outlooks for the global economy and key asset classes, including global equities; global fixed income; global infrastructure; the macro fixed income environment; municipal bond market; high yield bond market; small cap equities; U.S. dollar; U.S. economy; and U.S. equities.
The December 2024 Dashboard: Our Three Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride.
2025 Treasury Bonds and Fixed Income Outlook
The bond market is caught between the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates and the risk of higher inflation and federal debt levels.
Rethinking Cash
Assets in money market funds reached an all-time high of $7 trillion this past month. Now that rates are moving lower, money market yields may not be as attractive to many investors and assets may gradually leave money funds.
Equity Markets Carried in November by Post-election Rally
While politics garner headlines, fundamentals drive the market over the long term.
BlackRock Buys Credit Firm HPS in $12 Billion All-Stock Deal
BlackRock Inc. agreed to buy HPS Investment Partners in an all-stock deal valued at roughly $12 billion, a purchase that will propel the world’s largest asset manager into the highest ranks of private credit.
Don’t Be a Last Minute Rate Shopper
The 2024 wild ride has proven to be a continuation of last year’s.
Special Report: Astoria’s 10 ETFs for 2025
Astoria rounds up its 10 ETFs for 2025, providing unique thought leadership and actionable investment ideas.
Investment Banks Will Lose Billions of Dollars to Private Rivals
Big banks have been warning their investors about the competition they face from private credit, electronic market makers and others for some time.
Credit Spreads: The Markets Early Warning Indicators
Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns.
Corporate Bond ETFs Are Fueling a Rise in Monster Block Trades
The boom in portfolio trading, where investors can buy or sell scores of corporate bonds with just a few clicks of a mouse, is fueling mega trades that were rare in credit markets just a few years ago.
Choosing Municipal Bonds: GO or Revenue?
You're interested in investing in municipal bonds, but which type—general obligation or revenue—is best for you? We break it down.
In Hot Credit Market, Simple Fixed-Maturity Funds Are Booming
Credit investors squeezed by the tightest spreads in almost 20 years are opting for bare-bones strategies, creating a boom for Europe’s fixed-maturity funds.
Emerging Market Debt Outlook for 2025
On whole, EM growth has been resilient, while inflation has fallen closer to normal levels.
CLO Default Rates Are Significantly Lower Than Corporate Default Rates
For most of the last fifty years, fixed income investing has been characterized by owning some combination of Municipals, Corporates, Treasuries and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities.
Inflation Rises in Canada. How Could This Impact the Bank of Canada’s Upcoming Decision on Rates?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin reviewed the latest inflation numbers from Canada.
Outpace the Agg With EVTR’s Core Plus Bond Strategy
For investors looking to get ahead of the greater bond market, Eaton Vance's Total Return Bond ETF can do the trick.
Stephen Harper’s Blueprint for Economic Growth and Middle-Class Prosperity
This week, at the North American Blockchain Summit in Dallas, Texas, I had the distinct privilege of moderating a fireside chat with former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
2025 Fixed Income Investing: The Credit Cycle & Duration
Rick Raczkowski, PM, Relative Return Team, Loomis, Sayles & Company, discussed how the team views fixed income investing looking ahead.
Backdoor Private Credit Funds Are Luring Billions From Insurers
The world’s biggest private credit managers are turning to an obscure investment product to help raise billions from deep-pocketed insurance companies, testing the limits of industry safeguards meant to curb risk.
Another Soft Year for Secondaries: Changes on the Way in 2025?
Uncertainty ahead of the election may have resulted in lower corporate capex and M&A trends, but hope abounds that 2025 could bring about renewed animal spirits.
Blackstone Private Credit Fund Taps Debt Market for $1.5 Billion
Blackstone Inc.’s main private credit fund stormed the investment-grade bond market to raise a combined $1.5 billion in a single day, adding to the rush of direct lenders trying to lock in cheaper financing costs.
Trump Is Making the 60/40 Portfolio Great Again
The post-election stock market is already giving investors a wild ride. Big individual stock selloffs, massive rallies, and a dizzying array of market narratives built on Wall Street’s best attempts to read President-elect Donald Trump’s mind.
The Equity Risk Premium: Nine Myths (JPM Series)
Many of the myths and controversies surrounding the equity risk premium (ERP) are rooted in semantics: The same term is used for multiple purposes.
Why the Election Rally Could Continue
Why the equity market rally following the U.S. presidential election could continue into year-end.
As Active ETFs Grow Worldwide, Here's 2 Bond Options
Vanguard has a pair of bond options if fixed income investors are looking to get active with their portfolio.
Negative Correlations, Positive Allocations
The inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned, broadening potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.
Opportunities Beyond the Traditional Bond Indices
For most of the last fifty years, fixed income investing has been characterized by owning some combination of Municipals, Corporates, Treasuries and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities which has worked well with periods of secular disinflation.
Income Fund Update: Navigating Rate Cuts With Flexibility and a High Quality Focus
We seek to capitalize on today’s attractive yields while staying mindful of economic and market uncertainties.
Roubini Launches Treasury-Alternative ETF to Ride Trump-Era Risk
Nouriel Roubini is seizing on Donald Trump’s inflation-threatening policy agenda to make a case for an alternative haven trade to Treasuries in a world of elevated volatility.
Balancing Risks as the Credit Cycle Turns
Balancing credit risk with interest-rate risk in a dynamically managed portfolio can be an all-weather approach.
The Turtle and the Pendulum
Change is the sum of fundamental trends, the gradual elimination of accumulated extremes, and the random arrival of new shocks.
Active Management Will Drive Muni Returns in 2024
Municipal bonds broke their winning streak in October, posting negative total returns alongside broader fixed income assets.
Fixed Income Survey 2024-2025: Cautious Optimism
U.S. rate cuts of up to 200bps are anticipated by the end of 2025 but with significant further downside if recession risks materialize.
Emerging-Market Corporates’ Most Underappreciated Quality? Resilience
Emerging-market (EM) corporates have a track record of resilience across market cycles.
Notes From the Desk: Red-Wave Recalibration: Navigating the Post-Election Market Shift
With a "Red Sweep" in Washington likely, markets are now pricing in a more aggressive policy agenda.
Wall Street’s Higher-for-Longer Rate Brigade Plunges Into Loans
Investors are piling into US leveraged loan ETFs, betting that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will potentially boost inflation and push the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer.
Bond ETFs Trade on Veterans Day
Today is Veterans Day. My father served in the army during the Vietnam War. He lives in Long Island, New York, and I am proud of his service.
The Fed Acknowledges the Elephant in the Room
In the report, Global Head of Fixed Income Jim Cielinski and Head of Global Short Duration Daniel Siluk believe navigating the change in rate regimes has grown more complicated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) as they must now consider the ramifications of Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies.
Q4 Global Market Outlook 2024: U.S. Soft Landing: Is It Possible?
If we had to choose one indicator to watch over the next few months, it would be weekly initial jobless claims.
More Money Market Substitutes Taking Shape
Investors have been married to their money market funds for the better part of the last two years.
Late Tech Losses Sink October Equity Market Gains
Better than expected economic data drove interest rates higher, changing the market narrative and contributing to an equity market pullback early in the month. This unraveled expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and resulted in real rates moving higher. The 10-year Treasury has moved up 48 basis points, ending the month at 4.27%.
Credit Risk Drops in a Knee-Jerk Reaction to Trump’s Win
Credit risk fell in reaction to Donald Trump’s US presidential win, even though his presidency may be marred by tariffs and possible trade wars.
Quarterly Trading Report – Q3 2024: The Big Rotation and the Big Cut
U.S. equity-market leadership reversed course during the third quarter of 2024, with small cap stocks outperforming their large cap counterparts and the value factor beating the growth factor.
Treasuries Slip on Election Day as Volatility Hits One-Year High
Treasuries fell as a strong report on services ahead of Thursday’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision added to volatility around the US election.
2024 Economic & Market Outlook: The Final Stretch
Here we are, another calendar quarter down with one more to go in 2024, and investors have yet to see a “hard landing” emerge.
Fade the Election – Part 2: Debt & Deficits
The most common questions we’ve been asked as the election approaches are generally about the Federal debt and deficits. Many investors worry about a looming “day of reckoning” for US debt. They fear the US’s fiscal imprudence will eventually force a sudden and dramatic repricing of US debt. In this insight, we explore the modern history of US debt to GDP across several Presidential administrations and outline why investors should not be worried about a financial apocalyptic abyss.
When to Consider Munis From Outside Your Home State
Although investing in in-state municipal bonds may have tax advantages, there can be good reasons to buy out-of-state munis.
Climbing the Wall of Worries
Equities continued to climb in Q3, with fixed income remaining steady despite international conflicts, inflationary pressure, and election-related uncertainty in the United States.
Private Credit’s Banking Romance May Turn Sour
To understand the wave of bank partnerships with private-credit fund managers during the past year or so, think back to the boom in mortgage lending through securitization in the early 2000s. The same forces are at work: a huge demand for finance, limited and costly bank capital and investment bankers’ ingenuity and desire to generate business.
Don't Get Spooked, It's Time to Go Trick-or-Treating
Yields have risen from the dead since their recent lows in mid-September presenting investors with an opportunity that many were scared had disappeared following the FOMC’s 50 basis point rate cut at their last meeting.
The Benefits of a Flexible Core
Investment grade bonds have long been synonymous with a “core” fixed income allocation, but we believe a flexible strategy also belongs in most bond portfolios, as managers can adjust their exposure based on market conditions.
Tide Shifting to Support EM Local Currency Bonds
Despite recent headwinds from a strong U.S. dollar, EM local currency bonds present a compelling investment opportunity.
Weird Things Are Happening in the Bond Market
The US presidential election Nov. 5 is shaping up to be the mother of event risks so you’d think the safest of all havens would be holding up. But it’s not — and that’s only one of the notable anomalies springing up in financial markets. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries have risen nearly 70 basis points since the Federal Reserve's punchy half-point initial rate cut on Sept. 17.
Capital Markets Outlook 4Q 2024—Normalization: Endgame
Normalization seems to be in its final stage, with the Fed expected to continue cutting rates.
The Election And The Fed
An independent central bank supports better economic and market outcomes.
Fidelity Corporate Bond ETF (FCOR)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Fidelity Corporate Bond ETF (FCOR) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Broken China
We don’t talk about China enough. I suspect this is for several reasons. First, because the country is so incomprehensibly big and populous. Second, it has been an economic miracle. Many Chinese enthusiasts just see a straight line projection of their growth. To the moon, Alice!
Why Muni Bond ETFs Make Sense in 2025
The Internal Revenue Service has announced new tax brackets for 2025, making now an ideal time to revisit the benefits of muni bond ETFs.
The Value of Diversification: Insights From Our Q3 Economic and Market Review
Financial markets moved higher yet again in the third quarter of 2024, and this time everyone joined in!
Emerging Markets: The Biggest, Fastest Growing, and Arguably Least Understood Pool of Credit in the World
Many investors today use EM debt for the wrong reasons, manage it imprudently, or overlook the best parts.
Vanguard Sticks to Higher-Quality Debt ‘Playbook’ as US Economy Expected to Slow
Vanguard Group Inc. sees more opportunities in the lowest rung of investment-grade bonds, even as spreads for triple-B notes reached their tightest since 1998 last week.
Fixed Income Market Update
The FOMC lowered the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points at their September meeting. This was the first cut in over four years and the start of what is expected to be a multi-year easing cycle.
U.S. Agency Bonds: What You Should Know
Agency bonds issued by government-sponsored enterprises can offer slightly higher yields than U.S. Treasury bonds, without requiring bondholders to take on too much additional risk.
T. Rowe Price QM US Bond ETF (TAGG)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the T. Rowe Price QM U.S. Bond ETF (TAGG) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
The Worst of Allan Roth
Rather than go back and reminisce about the articles I’m most proud of, I think a better exercise is to look at those I got wrong and reflect on what might be learned.
Fears of False Start for Fed Leave Emerging Markets in Limbo
Price action in some of the world’s most risk-sensitive assets is signaling concern that the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin lowering interest rates may have been premature — or unsustainable.
Investing in an Era of Flouted Rules
The tendency to blindly follow these rules has led investors towards prematurely de-risking and over-estimating the likelihood of recession.
Q3 2024: Shifting Tides: Broad-Based Optimism Fuels Market Momentum
Markets changed character to broad-based optimism relating to the economy. The economic picture began to come into focus with inflation continuing to moderate as the economy maintains steady growth and employment. The result was a stark turnaround for economically integrated or interest rate sensitive assets, which resulted in a great quarter for diversified multi-asset portfolios. New Frontier sets a major milestone in Q4, marking 20 years of investing at the end of October.
Subsets and Sensibility
One of most dangerous habits of a speculative crowd is the tendency to use unconditional averages and unconditional probabilities regardless of how extreme market conditions have become. This is like stepping into a house with two rooms, one with the temperature at 0 degrees and one at 140 degrees, and expecting a temperature of 70 either way.
BlackRock’s Third Pivot Is Its Most Adventurous Yet
When BlackRock Inc. completed its initial public offering in 1999, it fell a bit flat. There was no first day pop; Founder and Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink didn’t even get to ring the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Valued at just under $900 million, the firm was one of 30 large investment-managers in the US, managing $165 billion of assets.
Boeing’s Endless Doom Loop Gives No Respite to CEO Ortberg
As Boeing Co. lurches from one crisis to the next, there’s been one constant for the embattled planemaker: Its predicament appears to be only getting worse.
Schwab Market Perspective: After the Landing
Has the Federal Reserve achieved an economic "soft landing"? A resilient U.S. economy suggests it may have.
Q3 2024 Market Outlook
Global equity markets continued to rally throughout the third quarter, with strong positive stock performance from the U.S., international developed, and emerging markets. The two biggest narratives that have unfolded recently center on the U.S. and China.
Private Credit Outlook: Keep Calm and Diversify
Interest rates are falling but growth is holding up. Still, we see ways to proactively shore up private allocations.
Volatile Bond Market Puts Traders on Defense Amid Fed-Cut Doubts
Bond investors are going on defense as the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cutting path turns more uncertain.
Hedged-Up Wall Street Traders Still Haunted by August Meltdown
Take a snapshot of markets right now, and it’s a picture of health. Stocks are at records, corporate bonds show no signs of worry and commodities remain buoyant on global economic optimism.
Back in Fashion: Bond ladders
For decades, a key component of many investors’ portfolios was a fixed income ladder. It was intended to provide ballast to the more volatile equity allocation and help reduce interest-rate risk.
Fourth Quarter Strategic Income Outlook
Credit indices rallied during the third quarter, despite a variety of economic headwinds, and it appears FOMO (fear of missing out) is fueling the bullish sentiment more than fundamentals.
Q3 Recap: Value Begins to Take Leadership
Quarterly recap: Fed rate cut and Chinese stimulus take the spotlight.
US Credit Draws In Foreign Investors Eying Lower Costs to Hedge
Foreign investors have been buying more US corporate bonds, a trend that will likely continue as Federal Reserve monetary easing lowers the cost of hedging and investors hunt for yield.
Getting Specific – A Working Strategy
We have openly promoted increasing duration over the last several months. An increase may seem like an odd “wish” as it implies taking on greater price risk.