New home prices are much lower than a year ago. The average price of a new home sold in October was 10.4% lower, while the median price was down 17.6%.
The federal deficit is already high at 6% of GDP. But if a recession hits – as Jeffrey Gundlach fears will happen next year – unemployment will rise, and the deficit and the interest the government pays on it will cripple the economy.
Student loan interest rates are different depending on whether you have federal student loans or private student loans. The short explanation is that federal student loans are a better deal.
There are plenty of high-performing private investment vehicles in India, but it’s the few that are being set up for dubious purposes that may bring harsher regulatory scrutiny to the country’s most rapidly expanding asset class.
MetLife Inc., the biggest US life insurer, downplayed concerns about the faltering commercial real estate market amid signs that occupancy is starting to recover.
If Mike Tyson were speaking to a group of investors, what he may have been saying is that everyone has a financial plan until life throws a “punch.”
Our forecast for the federal funds rate has the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting to cut rates in July 2024, with a second rate cut before the end of 2024.
Valuations for municipal bonds are very attractive right now. And as yields remain strong, so do their fundamentals.
Money markets paid nothing. The dividend yield for the S&P 500 Index was 2%, and the 10-Year Treasury yield was stuck between 2%-3%.
The Canadian economy is buckling under the weight of higher interest rates, household debt and immigration.
Big central banks are going to keep shrinking their balance sheets next year, pulling money out of the financial system, even if the fight against inflation looks to be won and interest rate cuts begin.
Our outlook for 2024 is for a gradual U-shaped recovery composed of seemingly chaotic movements in economic data with turning points in policy rates and earnings growth.
Market rents in the US are, depending on which measure you look at, either rising slowly or falling outright. Home purchase prices, after a slight dip last year, are climbing again.
Don’t look to US stocks for big gains next year — or for at least the next decade. That’s the bold take from Stifel Nicolaus & Co.’s Barry Bannister, one of a few Wall Street strategists who predicted the rally in the first half of 2023.
Our portfolio managers field some tough questions on Pacific Tiger’s performance, its positioning and what they believe are its unique strengths for investors.
For much of 2023, the market has tried to anticipate a Fed pivot – only to be wrongfooted several times. However, sharply higher interest rates, cooling inflation pressures and moderating wages have the market convinced that the Fed’s current tightening cycle is over.
The dearth of homes for sale has underpinned the housing market’s surprising resilience and may further lift home prices despite reduced affordability.
Trench warfare in the early 20th century has been described as long periods of boredom punctuated by moments of terror.
The AQR Style Premia Alternative Fund (QSPIX) was introduced a decade ago to provide pure exposure to four market factors that had historically delivered excess returns. Let’s look at how it performed over that period.
In November, Treasury rates dropped, and risk assets rallied. The market expects continuing drops in inflation and slower, but not disastrous, growth. The data support the market's sanguine assessment.
Inflation is a touchy subject, and given there are many ways to analyze it, investors should take note of the nuances that exist within the data.
The life story of Charlie Munger, who passed away on Tuesday at age 99, serves as a shining example of the enduring American Dream, especially now at a time when many people doubt whether the promise of a better life is still intact.
In a turnaround from last year, there is renewed interest in the fixed income asset class as yields have risen. Ed Perks, CIO of Franklin Income Investors, shares his analysis of recent macro developments and where he sees opportunities for income.
Many advisors and investors in 2023 have turned to fixed income ETFs with an average duration of less than one year. Taking on very little interest rate risk through duration has been rewarding as well.
After the underperformance of stocks and bonds last year, it’s no surprise that diversification strategies are a significant focus this year. Alternatives continue to garner advisor and investor interest as market dispersion grows, including managed futures and long/short strategies.
97% of corporate defined benefit (DB) plans can achieve full funding without a significant draw on corporate cash. This is an increase from the 86% noted in last year’s report.
Franklin Templeton recently hosted due diligence meetings with financial advisors where Tony Davidow, Senior Alternatives Investment Strategist, led discussions focused on alternative investments.
Money managers including Invesco Ltd. and Loop Capital Asset Management are bullish on regional-bank bonds, wagering that the debt will perform better than the broader market as fears about funding costs settle down.
In a year in which little has gone right in the US bond market, November turned out to be a month for the record books.
In the wake of recent underperformance, healthcare is entering the new year with compressed valuations just as innovation picks up and a post-COVID reset winds down. That should make for a positive outlook, says Janus Henderson Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons.
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2023
The S&P 500 closed November with a monthly gain of 8.92%, after a loss of 2.20% in October. After close on the last day of the month, one of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) — is signaling "cash", down from last month's final quadruple "cash" signal.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index fell 1.5% in October to 71.4, the index's lowest reading since the NAR began tracking data in 2001, and is down 8.5% compared to one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to fall 2.0% last month.
With the release of October's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.26% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.21% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.44% nominal and 3.33% real.
Real estate headlines seem to only focus on bad news right now, from remote work’s impact on offices to struggles for city center retail.
Whether famous or infamous, the Magnificent 7 stocks have been 2023’s stock market story. However, the fundamentals of the Magnificent 7 aren't uniquely superior, and the breadth and depth of other growth opportunities seems historically large and attractive. In our latest insight, we complete an analysis of US companies with expected earnings growth greater than 25% and compare it against the Magnificent 7 stocks.
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
On November 28, 2023, VettaFi hosted an Alternatives Symposium with an excellent turnout of nearly 750 advisors and investors registered for the event.
The unhappiness of American consumers despite rapid job and economic growth in the past few years is a hotly debated topic. Is it inflation? High borrowing costs for homes and automobiles? Crowded airports and packed airplanes?
The problem is not a deficit or a debt-issuance problem. It's an interest rate problem.
It’s the latest critique of the passive-investing boom: Fresh academic research claims that the relentless flood of index-chasing cash on Wall Street is distorting stock prices and causing extreme market moves.
Commodities entered 2023 behind a strong performance in 2022. For investors revisiting their portfolios ahead of 2024, it may be worth assessing the commodities outlook. From energy to precious metals, commodities can add meaningful diversification to a portfolio.
Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.
What were the big ETF trends of 2023? David Mann, Global Head of ETF Product & Capital Markets, reviews some of his predictions for this year—and how they panned out.
At the time of the first major climate change conference, in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, China was one of the least developed nations. Its per capita income was below Haiti, Niger and Pakistan.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in September as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a eighth consecutive month. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.7% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 3.9% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.1% and the YoY was reduced to -2.9%.
If investors needed another sign the heyday for meme stocks has passed, an exchange-traded fund designed to ride the pandemic-era rise of retail traders is shuttering after just two years.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) continued to increase in September, coming in at 414.8. U.S. house prices increased by 0.6% from the previous month and by 6.1% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.4% month-over-month and up 4.0% year-over-year.
As banks pull back from many types of lending, demand for capital is outpacing supply, providing the best potential opportunities in private credit since the GFC.
Don’t look now, but markets are once again getting excited about the prospect of potential rate cuts. Following months defined by rising rates, investors are looking forward to inflation cooling sufficiently for the Fed to finally cut.
While Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) may seem complex and daunting, it’s important to dive into their intricacies. After all, their current yields present an enticing opportunity and a compelling alternative to conventional Treasury bonds.
VettaFi will be hosting an Alternatives Symposium tomorrow, November 28. We are covering a range of alternative topics.
The October release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units. New home sales were down 5.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 719,000 in September and up 17.7% from one year ago. The median home price is now at $409,300, down 3.0% from September after adjusting for inflation.
The 2023 holiday season is officially upon us. Happy Black Friday and Cyber Monday to those who observe!
Every time interest rates go up there is a flurry of demand for a product that has been around at least since the Roman Empire — annuities. The insurance industry has already seen rapid growth in annuity sales since 2021 and if rates remain at or move above current levels, demand seems poised to explode.
Artificial intelligence is likely to transform our world in many ways, but one that hasn’t received much attention is the technology’s looming impact on real estate. As AI becomes an essential component of both business and daily life, the value of places where those who work on AI want to live will rise, provided these locales have reasonable infrastructure.
There are clear intersections between artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing. But for some reason, the latter has been an afterthought as the former has flourished in 2023.
While the fall in inflation is welcome, the impact of higher interest rates on mortgage borrowers still has some way to play out. The reduction in inflation will help DB members that are drawing on their pension. Pension trustees should consider their investment strategy and support members with their retirement planning.
CIO designate Sean Taylor gives his take on what Asia has to offer global and emerging markets investors, from growth, to diversification, to innovation.
October news on CPI inflation was all the doctor recommended and has markets spinning and repricing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential path forward.
Taxes can have a significant and ongoing impact on an investment portfolio. Advisors can help their clients minimize that impact with a tax-smart approach. Advisors can prepare for capital gains season now, and potentially maximize their clients’ after-tax returns.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation will delve into the world of office real estate investment trusts (REITs), and explore whether there are any good investment opportunities in this sector.
The potency of monetary policy will weigh more heavily on activity in 2024.
For investors stashing record sums in cash, US bond managers overseeing a combined $2.5 trillion have a bit of advice: It’s time to put that money to work.
Existing home sales fell further, remaining at their lowest level since 2010, as lack of inventory and high mortgage rates continued to impact sales. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 4.1% from September to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million units. This figure came in lower than the expected 3.90 million. Existing home sales are down 14.6% compared to one year ago.
David Dali, Head of Portfolio Strategy, provides his 12-month outlook for global equity markets.
Today's uncertain economic climate is putting particular pressure on four market segments. Here's what to watch out for in the months ahead.
The steepening yield curve has grabbed my attention. Historically, it's been a reliable investment signal. However, as I discuss in my article below, today's might not be occurring for the same reasons as in the past. It's not that it's different this time. It just might not be the same (so far).
In this issue of Fixed-Income Sector Views, our Sector Teams identify positive technical trends that have helped to support spreads, but remain vigilant for signs of credit deterioration as the slowing economy and the bite of higher rates start to be felt by issuers.
Welcome to the world of anchoring, where your serenity takes a back seat to anxiety.
For the better part of two years, investors have been primed with hope of a “Fed pivot” that will presumably restore easy monetary policy and supportive conditions for the financial markets.
Investors should embrace a genuine long-term perspective, extending their time horizons to at least 20 to 30 years. The traditional notion of long-term investing (five to 10 years) may fall short of realizing the full benefits of long-term strategies.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 19th consecutive month in October as the LEI resumed signaling a recession in the near term. The index dropped 0.8% from last month to 103.9, the index's lowest reading since May 2020.
Picking the “right” stock is akin to betting on a game; not only must one pick the right team (beta), but also by how much (alpha).
Though inflation continues to cool, there remains a potentially longer road ahead to get to the Fed’s desired 2%. In an environment of uncertainty and elevated inflation, the inclusion of managed futures in a portfolio made a significant difference in the last few years as modeled by DBi recently.
Exchange is thrilled to announce another incredible keynote speaker. DoubleLine Capital founder Jeffrey Gundlach will join an already impressive lineup of Exchange speakers.
For the past decade, South Florida’s politicians and development officials have fanned dreams — which long felt like delusions — of the region reinventing itself as some sort of “Wall Street South.”
The run-off election looks tight in Argentina, where I’m attending a Young Presidents’ Organization (YPO) event in Buenos Aires.
Now that there’s a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates — a shift I predicted last month — it’s time to ponder when policymakers will consider cutting rates and by how much.
A charismatic entrepreneur pulls in wealthy investors to amass a portfolio of some of the finest prime real estate. Banks and bondholders are persuaded to provide the leverage. What could possibly go wrong?
At first blush, a record $100 billion flood into actively managed exchange-traded funds this year raises a tantalizing prospect: A revival of stock picking even as only Big Tech names outperform the market. Yet, a look under the hood of popular ETFs shows the boom is almost entirely taking place in passive-looking trades.
New US home construction unexpectedly picked up in October, indicating builders continue to benefit from a limited supply in the resale market.
In October, housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.372 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.345 million. This marks a 1.9% increase from September and a 4.2% decline compared to one year ago.
In October, building permits reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.450 million. This marks a 1.1% increase from September and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.
Confounding market and economic signals persist as the year’s end draws near. In a year punctuated by heightened uncertainty as investors attempted to navigate a confluence of risk factors, stock and bond correlations proved a significant challenge to traditional portfolios.
In this video, the best time in decades to invest in REITS, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, will discuss the concept of FAST Graphs and analyze several REITs that he finds attractive.
In October, nominal home values increased for a 7th straight months while "real" home values fell for a 2nd straight month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $346,653, up 0.26% from the previous month and up 1.75% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.14% month-over-month and -4.77% year-over-year.
High mortgage rates continue to impact builder confidence as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell for a fourth consecutive month. With that said, recent macroeconomic data suggest improved conditions in the coming months. The index dropped 6 points from last month to 34, the index's lowest level since December 2022.
Inflation is edging back toward pre-pandemic rates in the US, but rent inflation still has a long way to go. To put it into numbers, the all-items consumer price index was just 3.2% higher in October than a year earlier, but the rent of primary residence index was up 7.2%.
The market for US Treasury securities is arguably the world’s most important: a haven for investors in turbulent times, and a benchmark for virtually all other assets.
We understand that many economists/analysts/market participants are already discounting inflation as a serious problem for the U.S. economy. Even if this seems correct on the surface, the problem is very different for those who suffer the most from higher prices – middle- and lower-income individuals.
Real Estate
Disinflation, Not Deflation
New home prices are much lower than a year ago. The average price of a new home sold in October was 10.4% lower, while the median price was down 17.6%.
Gundlach: Deficits, Recessions, Unemployment and the Impending Crisis
The federal deficit is already high at 6% of GDP. But if a recession hits – as Jeffrey Gundlach fears will happen next year – unemployment will rise, and the deficit and the interest the government pays on it will cripple the economy.
Understanding Student Loan Interest Rates
Student loan interest rates are different depending on whether you have federal student loans or private student loans. The short explanation is that federal student loans are a better deal.
The Murky Uses of India’s Private Credit Funds
There are plenty of high-performing private investment vehicles in India, but it’s the few that are being set up for dubious purposes that may bring harsher regulatory scrutiny to the country’s most rapidly expanding asset class.
MetLife Downplays Concern Over Commercial Real Estate
MetLife Inc., the biggest US life insurer, downplayed concerns about the faltering commercial real estate market amid signs that occupancy is starting to recover.
Mike Tyson Would be a Financial Planning Genius
If Mike Tyson were speaking to a group of investors, what he may have been saying is that everyone has a financial plan until life throws a “punch.”
When Would It Be Ok To Start Cutting Rates, and by How Much?
Our forecast for the federal funds rate has the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting to cut rates in July 2024, with a second rate cut before the end of 2024.
Consider Muni ETFs as Fundamentals Remain Strong
Valuations for municipal bonds are very attractive right now. And as yields remain strong, so do their fundamentals.
Just Give Me 5%
Money markets paid nothing. The dividend yield for the S&P 500 Index was 2%, and the 10-Year Treasury yield was stuck between 2%-3%.
Weighty Matters for Canada
The Canadian economy is buckling under the weight of higher interest rates, household debt and immigration.
We’ll Soon See If New Fed Defenses Work Against Money Mayhem
Big central banks are going to keep shrinking their balance sheets next year, pulling money out of the financial system, even if the fight against inflation looks to be won and interest rate cuts begin.
2024 Global Outlook: The Big Picture
Our outlook for 2024 is for a gradual U-shaped recovery composed of seemingly chaotic movements in economic data with turning points in policy rates and earnings growth.
Home Prices Are Historically High Next to Rents. Don’t Panic.
Market rents in the US are, depending on which measure you look at, either rising slowly or falling outright. Home purchase prices, after a slight dip last year, are climbing again.
Stifel Sees S&P 500 Delivering Little Returns Into Early 2030s
Don’t look to US stocks for big gains next year — or for at least the next decade. That’s the bold take from Stifel Nicolaus & Co.’s Barry Bannister, one of a few Wall Street strategists who predicted the rally in the first half of 2023.
Staying the Course: Matthews Pacific Tiger
Our portfolio managers field some tough questions on Pacific Tiger’s performance, its positioning and what they believe are its unique strengths for investors.
Recapping November’s Key Market Events
For much of 2023, the market has tried to anticipate a Fed pivot – only to be wrongfooted several times. However, sharply higher interest rates, cooling inflation pressures and moderating wages have the market convinced that the Fed’s current tightening cycle is over.
Mind the Supply: The Counterintuitive Impact of Higher Rates on U.S. Housing
The dearth of homes for sale has underpinned the housing market’s surprising resilience and may further lift home prices despite reduced affordability.
Long Periods of Boredom
Trench warfare in the early 20th century has been described as long periods of boredom punctuated by moments of terror.
Examining the Performance of AQR’s Style Premia Alternative Fund
The AQR Style Premia Alternative Fund (QSPIX) was introduced a decade ago to provide pure exposure to four market factors that had historically delivered excess returns. Let’s look at how it performed over that period.
The Impending Economic Slowdown Should Be Good for Markets
In November, Treasury rates dropped, and risk assets rallied. The market expects continuing drops in inflation and slower, but not disastrous, growth. The data support the market's sanguine assessment.
Lose Yourself in the Inflation Data
Inflation is a touchy subject, and given there are many ways to analyze it, investors should take note of the nuances that exist within the data.
A Tribute to Charlie Munger and the Promise of the American Dream
The life story of Charlie Munger, who passed away on Tuesday at age 99, serves as a shining example of the enduring American Dream, especially now at a time when many people doubt whether the promise of a better life is still intact.
Attractive Income Opportunities for Uncertain Markets
In a turnaround from last year, there is renewed interest in the fixed income asset class as yields have risen. Ed Perks, CIO of Franklin Income Investors, shares his analysis of recent macro developments and where he sees opportunities for income.
Chart of the Week: Advisors Willing to Take on Rate Risk
Many advisors and investors in 2023 have turned to fixed income ETFs with an average duration of less than one year. Taking on very little interest rate risk through duration has been rewarding as well.
2 Strategies to Capitalize on Increased Market Dispersion
After the underperformance of stocks and bonds last year, it’s no surprise that diversification strategies are a significant focus this year. Alternatives continue to garner advisor and investor interest as market dispersion grows, including managed futures and long/short strategies.
2023 Prudent Pension Funding Report: A Story of Positive Trends and Persistent Outliers
97% of corporate defined benefit (DB) plans can achieve full funding without a significant draw on corporate cash. This is an increase from the 86% noted in last year’s report.
Alternative Allocations: Alternatives by Franklin Templeton—Access Granted
Franklin Templeton recently hosted due diligence meetings with financial advisors where Tony Davidow, Senior Alternatives Investment Strategist, led discussions focused on alternative investments.
Regional-Bank Debt Is a Bargain to Buyers Betting Worst is Over
Money managers including Invesco Ltd. and Loop Capital Asset Management are bullish on regional-bank bonds, wagering that the debt will perform better than the broader market as fears about funding costs settle down.
Biggest Blowout in Bonds Since the 1980s Sparks Everything Rally
In a year in which little has gone right in the US bond market, November turned out to be a month for the record books.
Healthcare Stocks: Positioned for a Smoother Ride in 2024?
In the wake of recent underperformance, healthcare is entering the new year with compressed valuations just as innovation picks up and a post-COVID reset winds down. That should make for a positive outlook, says Janus Henderson Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes November Up 8.9%
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2023
The S&P 500 closed November with a monthly gain of 8.92%, after a loss of 2.20% in October. After close on the last day of the month, one of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) — is signaling "cash", down from last month's final quadruple "cash" signal.
Pending Home Sales Fall to Record Low
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index fell 1.5% in October to 71.4, the index's lowest reading since the NAR began tracking data in 2001, and is down 8.5% compared to one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to fall 2.0% last month.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.2% in October
With the release of October's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.26% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.21% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.44% nominal and 3.33% real.
Real Estate: The Underrated Alts Segment
Real estate headlines seem to only focus on bad news right now, from remote work’s impact on offices to struggles for city center retail.
Magnificence Beyond the Magnificent 7
Whether famous or infamous, the Magnificent 7 stocks have been 2023’s stock market story. However, the fundamentals of the Magnificent 7 aren't uniquely superior, and the breadth and depth of other growth opportunities seems historically large and attractive. In our latest insight, we complete an analysis of US companies with expected earnings growth greater than 25% and compare it against the Magnificent 7 stocks.
Moving Averages Month-End Preview: November 2023
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
What You Might Have Missed at Tuesday’s Alternatives Symposium
On November 28, 2023, VettaFi hosted an Alternatives Symposium with an excellent turnout of nearly 750 advisors and investors registered for the event.
Unhappy American Consumers Will Welcome a Slower Economy
The unhappiness of American consumers despite rapid job and economic growth in the past few years is a hotly debated topic. Is it inflation? High borrowing costs for homes and automobiles? Crowded airports and packed airplanes?
Large Fiscal Deficits Are Not the Real Problem
The problem is not a deficit or a debt-issuance problem. It's an interest rate problem.
The $7 Trillion ETF Boom Gets Blamed Again for Dumb Stock Moves
It’s the latest critique of the passive-investing boom: Fresh academic research claims that the relentless flood of index-chasing cash on Wall Street is distorting stock prices and causing extreme market moves.
The Commodities Outlook Entering 2024
Commodities entered 2023 behind a strong performance in 2022. For investors revisiting their portfolios ahead of 2024, it may be worth assessing the commodities outlook. From energy to precious metals, commodities can add meaningful diversification to a portfolio.
U.S. Outlook: One Thing Leads to Another
Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.
Year in Review: 2023 ETF Predictions Report Card
What were the big ETF trends of 2023? David Mann, Global Head of ETF Product & Capital Markets, reviews some of his predictions for this year—and how they panned out.
China Is a Rich Country. It Can No Longer Cry Poor on Climate
At the time of the first major climate change conference, in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, China was one of the least developed nations. Its per capita income was below Haiti, Niger and Pakistan.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Continues to Trend Upward in September
Home prices continued to trend upwards in September as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a eighth consecutive month. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.7% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 3.9% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.1% and the YoY was reduced to -2.9%.
Meme-Stock ETF Shuts After Failing to Attract Day Traders
If investors needed another sign the heyday for meme stocks has passed, an exchange-traded fund designed to ride the pandemic-era rise of retail traders is shuttering after just two years.
FHFA House Price Index Increases 0.6% in September
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) continued to increase in September, coming in at 414.8. U.S. house prices increased by 0.6% from the previous month and by 6.1% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.4% month-over-month and up 4.0% year-over-year.
Opportunities in Private Credit: Stepping in as Banks Step Out
As banks pull back from many types of lending, demand for capital is outpacing supply, providing the best potential opportunities in private credit since the GFC.
Eye Active ETFs to Ride Potential Rate Cuts
Don’t look now, but markets are once again getting excited about the prospect of potential rate cuts. Following months defined by rising rates, investors are looking forward to inflation cooling sufficiently for the Fed to finally cut.
Diving Into the Intricacies of TIPS
While Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) may seem complex and daunting, it’s important to dive into their intricacies. After all, their current yields present an enticing opportunity and a compelling alternative to conventional Treasury bonds.
Commodities and Cryptocurrency Offer an Alternative
VettaFi will be hosting an Alternatives Symposium tomorrow, November 28. We are covering a range of alternative topics.
New Home Sales Fall More Than Expected in October
The October release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units. New home sales were down 5.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 719,000 in September and up 17.7% from one year ago. The median home price is now at $409,300, down 3.0% from September after adjusting for inflation.
The Rise in Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Prices Captures the Mood of the 2023 Holiday Season
The 2023 holiday season is officially upon us. Happy Black Friday and Cyber Monday to those who observe!
Annuities Are Back in Fashion, But Are They Safe?
Every time interest rates go up there is a flurry of demand for a product that has been around at least since the Roman Empire — annuities. The insurance industry has already seen rapid growth in annuity sales since 2021 and if rates remain at or move above current levels, demand seems poised to explode.
Struggling Cities Face More Pain From AI Boom
Artificial intelligence is likely to transform our world in many ways, but one that hasn’t received much attention is the technology’s looming impact on real estate. As AI becomes an essential component of both business and daily life, the value of places where those who work on AI want to live will rise, provided these locales have reasonable infrastructure.
AI Could Be Catalyst for Cloud Computing Stocks, ETFs
There are clear intersections between artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing. But for some reason, the latter has been an afterthought as the former has flourished in 2023.
Falling UK Inflation: What Are the Implications for Pension Savings?
While the fall in inflation is welcome, the impact of higher interest rates on mortgage borrowers still has some way to play out. The reduction in inflation will help DB members that are drawing on their pension. Pension trustees should consider their investment strategy and support members with their retirement planning.
Why Asia Matters
CIO designate Sean Taylor gives his take on what Asia has to offer global and emerging markets investors, from growth, to diversification, to innovation.
October CPI Inflation: Just What the Dr. Recommended
October news on CPI inflation was all the doctor recommended and has markets spinning and repricing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential path forward.
The 4 A’s of Preparing for Capital Gains Season
Taxes can have a significant and ongoing impact on an investment portfolio. Advisors can help their clients minimize that impact with a tax-smart approach. Advisors can prepare for capital gains season now, and potentially maximize their clients’ after-tax returns.
Are Office REITs Good Investments Today?
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation will delve into the world of office real estate investment trusts (REITs), and explore whether there are any good investment opportunities in this sector.
The Weight Of High Interest Rates
The potency of monetary policy will weigh more heavily on activity in 2024.
If You're in Cash, You Risk Missing Out, Bond Managers of $2.5 Trillion Say
For investors stashing record sums in cash, US bond managers overseeing a combined $2.5 trillion have a bit of advice: It’s time to put that money to work.
Existing Home Sales Fall Further, Still at Lowest Level Since 2010
Existing home sales fell further, remaining at their lowest level since 2010, as lack of inventory and high mortgage rates continued to impact sales. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 4.1% from September to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million units. This figure came in lower than the expected 3.90 million. Existing home sales are down 14.6% compared to one year ago.
Market Viewpoint
David Dali, Head of Portfolio Strategy, provides his 12-month outlook for global equity markets.
4 Weak Spots in the Current Market
Today's uncertain economic climate is putting particular pressure on four market segments. Here's what to watch out for in the months ahead.
Today’s Yield Curve Steepening Is Not Different This Time, It’s Not The Same
The steepening yield curve has grabbed my attention. Historically, it's been a reliable investment signal. However, as I discuss in my article below, today's might not be occurring for the same reasons as in the past. It's not that it's different this time. It just might not be the same (so far).
Fourth Quarter 2023 Fixed-Income Sector Views
In this issue of Fixed-Income Sector Views, our Sector Teams identify positive technical trends that have helped to support spreads, but remain vigilant for signs of credit deterioration as the slowing economy and the bite of higher rates start to be felt by issuers.
The Risk of Anchoring Investment Expectations to a Market High
Welcome to the world of anchoring, where your serenity takes a back seat to anxiety.
Soft Selling a Hard Landing
For the better part of two years, investors have been primed with hope of a “Fed pivot” that will presumably restore easy monetary policy and supportive conditions for the financial markets.
Breaking the Chains of Time
Investors should embrace a genuine long-term perspective, extending their time horizons to at least 20 to 30 years. The traditional notion of long-term investing (five to 10 years) may fall short of realizing the full benefits of long-term strategies.
CB Leading Economic Index: Recession Signal Resumes as Index Declines Further
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 19th consecutive month in October as the LEI resumed signaling a recession in the near term. The index dropped 0.8% from last month to 103.9, the index's lowest reading since May 2020.
The New “New” Alpha
Picking the “right” stock is akin to betting on a game; not only must one pick the right team (beta), but also by how much (alpha).
Modeling the Benefits of Managed Futures Portfolio Inclusion
Though inflation continues to cool, there remains a potentially longer road ahead to get to the Fed’s desired 2%. In an environment of uncertainty and elevated inflation, the inclusion of managed futures in a portfolio made a significant difference in the last few years as modeled by DBi recently.
Exchange Announces Jeffrey Gundlach as Keynote Speaker
Exchange is thrilled to announce another incredible keynote speaker. DoubleLine Capital founder Jeffrey Gundlach will join an already impressive lineup of Exchange speakers.
Dear Miami, Taking Wall Street From NYC Won’t Be Easy
For the past decade, South Florida’s politicians and development officials have fanned dreams — which long felt like delusions — of the region reinventing itself as some sort of “Wall Street South.”
A Time of Gratitude and Opportunity
The run-off election looks tight in Argentina, where I’m attending a Young Presidents’ Organization (YPO) event in Buenos Aires.
The Case for Two Fed Rate Cuts in Early 2024 Is Building
Now that there’s a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates — a shift I predicted last month — it’s time to ponder when policymakers will consider cutting rates and by how much.
‘Prime Is Fine’ in Real Estate. Except When It’s Not
A charismatic entrepreneur pulls in wealthy investors to amass a portfolio of some of the finest prime real estate. Banks and bondholders are persuaded to provide the leverage. What could possibly go wrong?
A $100 Billion ETF Flood Offers Little Solace to Active Managers
At first blush, a record $100 billion flood into actively managed exchange-traded funds this year raises a tantalizing prospect: A revival of stock picking even as only Big Tech names outperform the market. Yet, a look under the hood of popular ETFs shows the boom is almost entirely taking place in passive-looking trades.
New US Home Construction Increased Unexpectedly in October
New US home construction unexpectedly picked up in October, indicating builders continue to benefit from a limited supply in the resale market.
Housing Starts Rise 1.9% in October
In October, housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.372 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.345 million. This marks a 1.9% increase from September and a 4.2% decline compared to one year ago.
Building Permits Increase 1.1% in October
In October, building permits reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.450 million. This marks a 1.1% increase from September and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.
The Problem of Mixed Market Signals and Correlations
Confounding market and economic signals persist as the year’s end draws near. In a year punctuated by heightened uncertainty as investors attempted to navigate a confluence of risk factors, stock and bond correlations proved a significant challenge to traditional portfolios.
This Is The Best Time In Decades To Invest In REITs
In this video, the best time in decades to invest in REITS, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, will discuss the concept of FAST Graphs and analyze several REITs that he finds attractive.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Value Falls in October
In October, nominal home values increased for a 7th straight months while "real" home values fell for a 2nd straight month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $346,653, up 0.26% from the previous month and up 1.75% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.14% month-over-month and -4.77% year-over-year.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Down Again
High mortgage rates continue to impact builder confidence as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell for a fourth consecutive month. With that said, recent macroeconomic data suggest improved conditions in the coming months. The index dropped 6 points from last month to 34, the index's lowest level since December 2022.
Rent Hikes of 2021 and 2022 to Boost CPI Into 2026
Inflation is edging back toward pre-pandemic rates in the US, but rent inflation still has a long way to go. To put it into numbers, the all-items consumer price index was just 3.2% higher in October than a year earlier, but the rent of primary residence index was up 7.2%.
Three Things to Prevent a Treasury Market Meltdown
The market for US Treasury securities is arguably the world’s most important: a haven for investors in turbulent times, and a benchmark for virtually all other assets.
Inflation Is Decelerating... Its Effects on Consumers Are Not
We understand that many economists/analysts/market participants are already discounting inflation as a serious problem for the U.S. economy. Even if this seems correct on the surface, the problem is very different for those who suffer the most from higher prices – middle- and lower-income individuals.