Real Estate

Seven months into the U.S.–Iran conflict, few historical analogues have held. The trajectory of oil prices has been consistent with previous geopolitical shocks, but the market response elsewhere has looked strikingly different. U.S. Treasury yields have moved notably higher, for example, while credit spreads have remained remarkably resilient.

This year has marked another remarkable chapter for the global economy and financial markets. Investors have navigated no shortage of challenges, from geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions to elevated energy prices and shifting interest rate expectations. Yet despite these headwinds, the economy continues to expand, corporate earnings remain resilient and markets have steadily climbed the proverbial wall of worry.

Industrials are supported by increased capital spending in electricity capacity, construction around the artificial intelligence-related (AI) infrastructure buildout, defense, and energy, although higher costs and possible delays in data center construction could temper growth.

If you only looked at the price of gold in September, you’d be forgiven for believing the bull market had run out of steam. The yellow metal fell 6.3% during the month, and some in the financial press were quick to say it had failed as a safe haven.

Societal angst about AI continues to grow. Whether it’s concern about misalignment or potentially misdirected investment, the AI-may-be-bad narrative is gaining traction. In stark contrast, the AI trade in financial markets was alive and well in September of 2026.

Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%.

Executives enter the earnings season with a bit of a swagger. They won't say it out loud, of course, but consider all the headwinds CEOs of companies big and small have faced in the last few years. First, it was imminent recession fears; then it was looming tariffs (followed by the shock of April 2025).

Recent bond market repricing has pushed municipal yields to levels not seen in decades and improved the potential risk-reward profile for fixed income. Here, we examine why municipals stand out, how supportive credit fundamentals shape the opportunity and why investors may benefit from extending maturities to lock in attractive tax-exempt income.

The Fed’s latest 25 basis point hike might represent a recalibration rather than tightening. Instead of focusing on the next hike, investors should watch broader financial conditions and the long-term trajectory for interest rates.

Today, we’re going to look at a lot of various data points and analysis, that when taken together give us a much clearer picture of the total world.

This week gave us another glimpse of our AI-powered future. AI personal agents are becoming a thing you need to understand, if not use.

The sell-off in U.S. Treasury (UST) yields has continued pretty much in an unabated fashion In fact, multi-year high watermarks are being achieved throughout the fixed coupon maturity curve. The most widely followed development was the UST 10-year yield rising to its highest level since 2007.

Markets await a possible Fed rate hike as Congress weighs Trump's dividend proposal, a limited fall session, and a Senate vote on crypto regulation.

Yesterday’s cooler-than-expected PCE print finally gave the bond market a breather, pulling Treasury yields down from their brief 5.3% peak. For financial advisors, this recent whiplash brings fixed income duration conversations back to center stage — specifically, balancing the hunt for long-term yield with the safety of ultra-short cash alternatives.

AI could be a transformative force for the Fed’s policy framework. Elevated investment demand – now coupled with positive wealth effects that are necessitating tighter financial conditions – could eventually give way to a positive supply impact from higher productivity growth that could allow for easier financial conditions without inflationary implications.

All eyes are on the macro economy. A significant market correction in late July triggered the abrupt collapse of Situational Awareness, L.P., a $45 billion, highly leveraged, AI-focused hedge fund. The collapse forced selling of many technology hardware stocks that were winners in the first half of 2026.

Assessing the wall of worry. Here, we assess the market's growing wall of worry, explain why these worries warrant attention, and justify our continued constructive intermediate-to-long-term stock market outlook.

Economic data from last week continued to paint a picture of a robust U.S. economy with an accelerating pace of growth. After a strong durable goods report showed business fixed investment continuing to rise on the back of ongoing AI data center buildouts, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for third-quarter real economic growth remained at an elevated 5 percent.

Globalization is being reorganized around security and resilience, creating uneven risks and opportunities across markets.

Yields have pushed higher with some points on the curve reaching yield levels not seen since the mid-2000s. While it is nearly impossible to pinpoint a specific catalyst for any move in the financial markets, below are a few of the factors that have helped push interest rates higher.

Given that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates earlier in September, inflation data that was already crucial has taken on a new meaning. These reports could now serve as a barometer for what is to come from the central bank.

The bond market has become the central story for investors. The remarkable development over the past several weeks is not rising inflation expectations but rising real interest rates. Real rates have increased roughly 40 basis points in just three weeks, one of the sharpest moves I can remember over such a short period. Meanwhile, longer-term inflation expectations have actually edged slightly lower.

There is more than one reason the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23% today. Most importantly, the Fed has stopped anchoring interest rates at artificially low levels. Fear of inflation is likely another. However, both of those are related to the massive government debt the US has created.

AI-related borrowers have accounted for nearly a quarter of nonfinancial U.S. dollar (USD) supply year-to-date, yet spreads for non-AI issuers have not widened meaningfully. Instead, hyperscaler spreads have widened, suggesting the market is absorbing the AI supply shock at its source.

Retail investors buy corporate bond ETFs expecting steady coupons and ballast against stock market volatility. Traditionally, fixed-income portfolios were anchored by defensive issuers like banks, industrials and utilities.

A recent VettaFi webcast explored advice on navigating retirees' behavioral tendencies in decumulating assets in retirement.

As bond yields have risen, mortgage rates are again facing upward pressure, extending the U.S. housing market's post-pandemic affordability challenges. Beyond mortgage rates, trends in wage growth, taxes, and insurance costs also continue to shape the affordability outlook.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

The financial markets are navigating a storm. The Treasury yield sell-off intensified this week, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to an intraday high of 5.20%, its highest level since 2007.

I’m talking about the cash I have sitting here that I desperately want to get into the market. Earlier this year, I got a chunk of money from selling a house. I have no desire to own another home (that’s a story for another time.) Instead, I used some of the money to pay off some debt. The rest is just sitting in my savings account earning absolutely nothing.

The S&P 500 has remained remarkably resilient in the face of mounting macro headwinds. Despite oil prices topping $100 per barrel, 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 5%, and a renewed shift toward tighter monetary policy, the index continues to hover near record levels.

The Treasury Department will buy back another $6 billion in long-term Treasuries today (Thursday, Sept. 24) as it continues efforts to tamp down rising yields.

In September 2024 and June 2025, I wrote memos that were critical of governments’ attempts to override the laws of economics, based on my conviction that trying to do so is likely to prove ineffective and potentially harmful.

Asset owners want private-market exposure, but liquidity remains their biggest hurdle, an opening advisors can meet with public alternatives.

This week, there are a few things that we need to pay attention to: the large move in interest rates and what it means (and more importantly, what it doesn’t mean!); and the constant barrage of doom and gloom on energy and AI. Let’s jump in.

I do not know whether quantum computing is in that kind of window right now. Nobody does, and I am suspicious of anyone who claims certainty in either direction. What I can say is that the pattern-matching is uncomfortably familiar.

Creating significant wealth requires concentration of capital, attention, risk, and decision-making.

Since ChatGPT was first released in 2022, the artificial intelligence (AI) trade has dominated US equity markets. Gains have been driven by three interrelated forces: enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, growing concentration in the largest technology companies and strong price momentum.

This year has presented no shortage of challenges for investors. Geopolitical conflict, trade tensions, rising energy prices, shifting interest rate expectations and an increasingly active political backdrop have each taken turns dominating the headlines. Yet despite these obstacles, the economy has continued to expand, corporate profits have marched higher and markets have climbed one wall of worry after another.

The Federal Reserve hiked rates, and we expect there are more to come. With a hawkish Fed and a resilient economy, long-term yields may stay elevated.

The rise in Treasury yields has prompted a familiar set of explanations. Some investors have pointed to government borrowing and persistent inflation, while others have focused on the possibility that artificial intelligence will lift economic growth and interest rates.

Looking ahead, markets are priced for additional hikes. And our base case is that the FOMC will likely deliver one or two more 25-bp rate hikes through this year and into early next. However, looking further out, anticipating appropriate Fed policy through a financial-conditions-targeting framework has its own limitations. Hence, a neutral rate anchor is still useful.

The appeal of a portfolio of individual bonds for many investors are the known qualities that they can provide: a known stream of cash flow, a known redemption value, a known redemption date, and a known yield; all of which are locked in at the time of purchase.

LPL Research analyzes S&P 500 margin expansion, assessing how much is structural versus cyclical and what that means for future earnings forecasts.

Global growth remains resilient but uneven. In the United States, expansion is supported by private demand, a stable labor market and AI investment, while Europe and Japan continue to show surprising strength despite ongoing risks.

For many advisory firms, portfolio management creates a practical tension. Standardized models can simplify implementation and support scale, yet they may not reflect a firm's investment philosophy, tax realities, legacy holdings or preferred managers. Building every portfolio internally preserves control, but it also demands time, systems and ongoing investment oversight.

The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is more than a regional milestone — it is a shift in competition among U.S. capital markets. After months of anticipation, the TXSE reached a major landmark last week as Texas Capital’s TXS and OILT ETFs became its first primary listings, followed a day later by PWRX as the first new ETF to launch on the exchange.

Creating an estate plan is an important step, but it is only one piece of your financial life. If your estate documents, investment strategy, retirement plan, tax strategy, and beneficiary designations are not working together, even a well-crafted estate plan may not achieve the outcome you intended. Coordinating these elements may help support your wealth is transferred efficiently, your wishes are honored, and unnecessary complications are reduced.

Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Kevin Warsh has established his hawkish credentials. Franklin Templeton CIO, Sonal Desai sees scope for further yield curve steepening and a range of selective opportunities, based on capturing income and focusing on quality rather than counting on lower rates or tighter spreads.

It wasn’t that long ago that Kevin Warsh’s leading critics were saying his biggest problem was that he wasn’t “independent” from President Trump, that if Trump told him to “jump” he’d ask “how high?” Or, in this particular situation, “how low should interest rates go?”

The week began with calls for a potential slowdown in AI spending amid growing safety concerns and included a midweek Fed rate hike for the first time since 2023. The S&P 500 finished slightly lower for the second week in a row despite continuing signs that economic growth is strong. Shorter-term bond yields pushed higher as investors priced in the potential for additional rate hikes, both in the U.S. and abroad.

Early this week, I was in Los Angeles at the All-In Summit along with about 4,000 others, including tech investors, money managers and entrepreneurs. The ticket wasn’t cheap, but it was well worth it.

Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

A popular narrative for the rise in bond yields over the past few months is that the debt-funded AI capital expenditure cycle is crowding out the Treasury market. The crowding-out argument can appear compelling: AI companies are expected to continue to issue unprecedented amounts of debt at a time when Treasury supply remains elevated. Because both ultimately draw from the same pool of investor capital, yields must rise to clear the market.

GMO has posted a new 7-Year asset class forecast for August 31, 2026.

This week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision was largely in line with expectations. While many market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) members anticipated another rate increase later this year, we remained in the camp that viewed the move as likely the last increase before the Fed adopted a wait-and-see approach, allowing geopolitical developments to stabilize and recent inflationary base effects related to the US-Iran war to fade.

The Federal Reserve increased rates by 25 basis points this week, a remarkable turnaround with major implications for portfolios of all kinds; one underexamined impacted area may be annuities.

Advisors outsourcing at least 20% of assets reported saving 9.1 hours per week, or approximately 473 hours annually. WisdomTree research found 90% of investors welcomed third-party model portfolios, suggesting clients may be more comfortable with outside expertise than advisors expect.

We are never going to get rid of the FOMC for political and practical reasons. For those of us who would like to see the market set rates without an FOMC intervening, this is as good as it’s going to get.