The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, dropped to 44.3 in January from 44.9 in December, marking the fifth straight month in contraction territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity. This reading comes in below the Investing.com forecast of 45.0.
COVID-19: Coronavirus Coverage
The Big Four Economic Indicators: January Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of non-farm employment. January saw a 517K increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.4%. The Investing.com forecast was for 185K jobs gained.
S&P Global Services PMI: Solid Contraction in January
The January US services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 46.8 percent, up from the final December estimate of 44.7 and remains in contraction territory.
ISM Services Bounces Back in January
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released its January services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 55.2 percent and is up 5.6 from 49.6 last month. Today's number came in almost 5 percentage points above the Investing.com forecast of 50.4 percent.
February Fed Meeting: Tough Talk for a Smaller Hike
At the conclusion of its inaugural policy meeting of 2023 today, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a smaller, quarter-point rate hike, as widely expected by markets.
A Walk Down Memory Lane
In 1965 I was studying for a degree in Engineering.
P/E10: January 2022 Update
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
Don’t Call This a Flash Crash!
US market structure was back in the news recently with several stocks experiencing irregular price movements on the morning of January 24.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 3K, Better Than Forecast
This morning's seasonally adjusted 183K new claims, down 3k from the previous week's unrevised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 200K.
Where is the Recession?
Inflation appears to have peaked, led by improvements in core goods prices and rate-sensitive sectors like housing.
ISM Manufacturing Index Continues Contraction in January
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for January. The latest headline purchasing managers index (PMI) was 47.4, down 1.0 from the previous month and in contraction territory. This marks the third consecutive month in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 48.0.
January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Declining Further
The January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 46.9, up 0.7 from the final December figure, and marginally better than the Investing.com forecast of 46.8. However, this marks the third consecutive month in contraction territory. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Wall Street's Feel-Good Start to 2023 Sets Up Perilous Fed Day
Once-hated world stocks, bonds laced with interest-rate risk and even deadbeat crypto coins have just closed out a big new-year rally.
December Job Openings & Labor Turnover
The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report, with data through December, is now available.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.9% in Q4 2022
Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q4 2022.
Consumer Confidence Declines in January
The headline number of 107.1 was a decrease of 1.9 from the upwardly revised final reading of 109.0 for December.
Chicago PMI Down in January, Worse Than Forecast
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, dropped to 44.3 in January from 44.9 in December, marking the fifth straight month in contraction territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity. This reading comes in below the Investing.com forecast of 45.0.
November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continues Decline
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% decrease month over month. The MoM is reduced to -1.2% after adjusting for inflation. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 7.7% YoY increase.
FHFA House Price Index Down 0.1% in November
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for November. U.S. house prices decreased by 0.1% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 8.2% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is was unchanged in November and up 1% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Yellen Sees Low Inflation as More Likely Long-Term Challenge
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said persistently weak inflation is likely to return as a long-term challenge for the economy and policymakers once pandemic-era distortions behind the recent surge subside and prices cool.
World Markets Update: January 30, 2023
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 30, 2023. The top performer continues to be Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a YTD gain of 11.57%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 9.40%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 8.64%. Coming in last for the fourth straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 2.20% YTD.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Growth Slows in January
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for January. The latest general business activity index came in at -8.4, up 11.6 from last month. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Continued to Inch Up in December
With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's .28% nominal and 0.18% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.71% nominal and -2.20% real.
Pending Home Sales Increased 2.5% in December, Ending Six-Month Slide
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines."
Elephant in the Room
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
An Inside Look at the GDP Q4 Advance Estimate
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Q4 Real GDP Per Capita: 2.5% Versus the 2.9% Headline Real GDP
The advance estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.9% (2.89% to two decimal places), a decrease from 3.2% (3.24% to two decimal places) for the Q3 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.52% to two decimal points.
GDP and Jobs Show the Stock Market Bears Are Still Early
There’s a price to be paid for being early in investing even if you get the broader story right, as US stock market bears are learning the hard way.
White House Under Pressure to Develop a 'Plan B' on Student Debt
The Biden administration is under pressure from Capitol Hill lawmakers and student debt advocates to develop contingency plans to cancel billions of dollars in student debt and to move forward quickly if the Supreme Court strikes down the administration’s initial executive action.
Big Tech Binged on Workers During Covid. Now, the Purge
The layoff announcements coming lately from the chief executive officers of big technology companies all contain variations on the theme of “we hired too many people during the pandemic,” expressed with varying degrees of contrition.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Activity Was Flat
The latest index came in at -1, up 3 from last month's revised figured, indicated a slower pace of decline compared to December. The future outlook declined to 3. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
New Home Sales Up 2.3% in December
This morning's release of the December new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 616K, up 2.3% month-over-month from a revised 602K in November. The Investing.com forecast was for 617K. The median home price is now at $442K.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
A Charitable Way to Beat Taxes in the Afterlife
COVID-19 has been a catalyst for change in many aspects of our lives, not least the migration to flexible working, which would have taken many more years without the pandemic’s brutal intervention.
Recession Fear Investing
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Jeremy Grantham Warns of a 17% Plunge in the S&P 500 This Year
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
The 2 Trillion Reasons Why Fed Tightening Isn't So Scary
Stubborn inflation means more interest-rate increases are coming from the Federal Reserve and that sounds like great news for banks.
IG Outlook: Positive Technicals, Deteriorating Fundamentals
The Loomis Sayles Investment Grade Sector Team shares their expectations for the IG corporate bond market in 2023.
Don't Get Disoriented by Recession-Talk Fatigue
Investors, economists and journalists have been talking incessantly about recession for the better part of the past year, and they’re all tired of it.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
Investors Start to Unwind the $540 Billion America First Trade
The America First trade that sent money gushing to the US over the past three years is finally starting to lose its shine as market optimism gravitates back to unloved markets outside of the world’s biggest economy.
Wall Street Spreads New Year Cheer With Upbeat Davos Outlook
After a year that brought a surprise surge in interest rates, the biggest stock drop since 2008 and a halt to major deals, plenty of finance executives lined up at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting to say they now see reasons to be upbeat.
Middle-Class Hourly Wages as of December 2022
I've updated this series to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $47,438, down 8.6% from 45-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
Existing-Home Sales: Retreat for 11th Consecutive Month
This morning's release of the December existing home sales showed that sales fell slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units from the previous month's 4.08 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 3.96 million. The latest number represents a 1.5% decrease from the previous month and its eleventh in a row. December saw a 34.0% decrease YoY.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Continues Decline in January
The latest manufacturing index came in at -8.9, up 4.8 from last month's -13.7, marking the index's fifth negative reading in a row and the seventh in the last eight months. The three-month moving average came in at -12.7, down from last month. The six-month outlook came in at 4.9, up from the previous month's -0.9. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion.
EM Debt Outlook: China Takes Center Stage
The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on growth, corporate defaults and inflation.
The Big Four: December Real Retail Sales Continue to Decline
Month-over-month nominal sales in November was down 1.15% and up 6.02% YoY. Real retail sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted CPI, decreased by 1.07% and was down 0.38% YoY.
Job Market's 2.6 Million Missing People Unnerves Star Harvard Economist
Behind the five-decade low US unemployment rate of 3.5% lies a 2.6 million-person mystery.
NAHB Housing Market Index: "Builder Confidence Uptick Signals Turning Point for Housing Lies Ahead"
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 35 is up 4 from last month's 31, ending 12 consecutive monthly declines.
Retail Sales Down 1.15% in December, Worse Than Forecast
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.15% month-over-month and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -1.13% MoM.
December Producer Price Index: Finished Goods at 8.8% YoY
This morning's release of the December Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was down 1.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 0.2% increase last month. It is at 8.8% year-over-year, down from a 10.6% increase last month, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Home Prices Will Likely Fall Further
Home prices have started to correct as interest rates rose sharply in 2022.
Content in Retirement
Many older workers who left the workforce during the pandemic may not return to the labor market.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Contracted Sharply in January
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -32.9 was a decrease of 21.7 from the previous month's -11.2. This was the index's lowest reading since May 2020 and the fifth worst reading in survey history. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of -8.7.
Unfazed by Airline Grounding, Investors Look Ahead to Earnings
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
Tax Season Begins Jan. 23 With the IRS Promising Improvements
The US tax filing season will begin Jan. 23 and run through through April 18 with, perhaps, less frustration for both taxpayers and the Internal Revenue Service than in recent years.
Components of the CPI: December
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
December Inflation: The Components
We are now seeing some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
2023 Municipal Bond Playbook: A Page from the 1990s
Current federal monetary policy, fixed income returns and economic landscape appear to closely parallel the bond bear markets in the 1990s.
Underlying Inflation Gauge: December Update
The latest full set UIG for November is 5.37% while the prices-only measure is 4.53%. Current Headline CPI is now 6.45% and Core CPI is 5.71%.
A Soft Landing Won't Mean the Economy Is Safe
Since we gave up on the idea that high inflation would be transitory, the hope has been that we would manage a soft landing: Inflation would melt back to 2% without doing too much harm to the labor market or economic growth.
Consumer Price Index: December Headline at 6.45%, Down from November
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 6.45%, down from 7.11% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 5.71%, down from 5.96% the previous month.
Healthcare Stocks: An Innovative Antidote for Volatile Times
Healthcare stocks have remained in vogue through volatile markets, driven by increased interest in the sector during COVID-19.
U.S. Workforce: December 2022 Update
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for December. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 223K.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Declines in December
The headline number for December came in at 89.8, down 2.1 from the previous month. The index is at the 7th percentile in this series.
Full-time and Part-time Employment: A Deeper Look
Let's take a closer look at this week's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
Holiday Shopping Season: What Recession?
U.S. consumers did not slow their spending over the holidays.
December Employment: Services Vs. Goods Producing Jobs
The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 223K nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 183K service-providing jobs and a gain of 40K goods-producing jobs.
The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 30, 2022 close.
November Trade Deficit at $61.5B
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The headline number of -$61.5B was better than the -73.0B Investing.com forecast.
Chips; Failed Rally Leaves Them Historically Cheap
Chips shares took a beating last year.
The R Year
2022 wasn’t the easiest of years to handle for investors.
US Bond Performance Shows Fed Isn't Behind the Curve
Back in March, “the Fed is behind the curve” was the prevailing narrative of too little, too late when it came to containing inflation.
After $18 Trillion Rout, Global Stocks Face More Hurdles in 2023
More tech tantrums. China’s Covid surge. And above all, no central banks riding to the rescue if things go wrong.
Back to the Future of Work: Three Predictions for Productivity in 2023
What will the workplace look like a year from now? The snow globe of work has been undeniably shaken to its core since the arrival of Covid-19.
Stocks Set to Rebound to Begin the Day
U.S. stocks are rising in pre-market trading, looking to rebound from yesterday's drop.
The Junk Bond Reckoning is Coming in 2023
Ever so subtly, the high interest rates of the past year have started to separate the viable businesses from the ones sustained by cheap money.
One Small Step Forward —One Giant Leap Away From Deflation in Japan
Templeton Global Equity Group weighs in on inflation’s emergence in Japan, recent monetary policy shifts, and the implications for investors.
US Previously Owned Home Sales Weaken Further as High Rates Take Toll
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a 10th-straight month in November, extending a record decline as high mortgage rates continue to stifle affordability.
America's Driving Habits as of October 2022
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +0.1% (+0.3 billion vehicle miles) for October 2022 as compared with October 2021. Travel for the month is estimated to be 286.0 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was mostly unchanged month-over-month and up 3.0% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) inched down 0.1% month-over-month and was up 2% year-over-year.
We'll Return to the Office in 2023 But Not to Stores
Certain events change the course of history, or at least the trajectory of the global economy. To name a few: the Black Death, the invention of the steam engine and World War II, and now the scourge of Covid-19.
China’s Road to Reopening
As the second-largest economy in the world, China’s reopening has important economic and market implications. Here are some key considerations.
Themes From A Busy Year
The economics teams looks back at the most significant stories we covered during 2022.
Top Global Risks of 2023
Considering that a new year almost always brings surprises of one form or another, we've highlighted our top five that may define the global markets in 2023.
For the Fed, a Red Card From the Seventies
Monetary policy is more like the World Cup than it is like mathematics or great literature.
Fourth Quarter 2022 Economic Review and Outlook
The economic tea leaves suggest that 2023 could be another challenging year for both stocks and bonds. However, the outlook is more balanced given that equity valuations are much lower and bond yields much higher.
Ignition! Fusion Energy Comes Closer To Being A Reality, With Exciting Investment Opportunities
This important milestone is the culmination of decades’ worth of research and lots of trial and error, and it makes good on the hope that humanity will one day enjoy 100% clean and plentiful energy.
Global GDP Themes and Forecasts (Infographic)
What's next for global growth? Our Macro Strategies team shares a regional breakdown of their growth expectations across the globe.
Goldman Says Commodities Will Gain 43% in 2023 as Supply Shortages Bite
Commodities will be the best-performing asset class once again in 2023, handing investors returns of more than 40%, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.