The global surge in the cost of fuel is starting to weigh on demand, according to the world’s biggest independent oil trader.
All told, the world’s 500 richest people lost $1.4 trillion in the first half of 2022, a dizzying decline that marks the steepest six-month drop ever for the global billionaire class.
After attracting crypto firms, property investors and Russian billionaires, Dubai is drawing a new crowd: hedge fund managers.
Inflation, China, Russia, Central Banks, Labor, Recession: It's been quite a year thus far.
Investors cut holdings in exchange-traded funds for silver, platinum and palladium in the second quarter on fears that a potential recession will reduce industrial demand, but gold assets held up because of its role as a haven, and that may persist.
How quickly the narrative has shifted back and forth in the money and bond markets.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for June. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 53.0, a decrease of 3.1 from 56.1 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 54.9.
The June US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 52.7, down 4.3 from the final May figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
With the release of this morning's report on May's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal .051% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.08% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.45% nominal and a decrease from the 0.21% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.5% nominal and -3.61% real.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in May rose 0.69% and is up 8.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.10%. The real number is up 1.8% year-over-year.
It’s official: Chinese equities are once again in vogue, after months of regulatory crackdowns, deleveraging and stringent virus curbs wiped trillions of dollars off benchmark gauges.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 231K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 2278K.
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility.
As I have indicated in recent weeks, I don’t really understand why the media has turned so bearish on the US economy lately, and why so many forecasters are predicting we’re either just about to enter a potentially nasty recession or we’re already in one.
Someone once said, “Better than being smart is knowing who is!”
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through June 27, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD loss of 1.71%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a loss of 4.99% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a loss of 6.67%. Coming in last is Germany's DAXK with a loss of 19.6% YTD.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for June. The latest general business activity index came in at -17.7, down 10.4 from last month. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
Gasoline consumption in the US probably peaked in the years before the pandemic.
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Pipe down for a second Elon, the hottest things in the auto industry — the most electric electrics — now come from Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp.
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
This morning's release of the May New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 5696K, up 10.7% month-over-month from a revised 629K in April. The Investing.com forecast was for 588K. The median home price is now at $449K.
The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
Tesla Inc. is taking steps to ramp up output at its factory in Shanghai, partly suspending manufacturing capabilities at various points through early August to upgrade production lines, according to people familiar with the matter.
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
The yield of the U.S. high yield (HY) market, currently at 8.4%, has risen by over 420 basis points since the start of the year.
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
China’s chip industry is growing faster than anywhere else in the world, after US sanctions on local champions from Huawei Technologies Co. to Hikvision spurred appetite for home-grown components.
Elon Musk confirmed the salaried workforce at Tesla Inc. would be cut by about 10% over the next three months.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to +0.01 in May from +0.40 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in May, and two categories deteriorated from April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.20 in May from +0.40 in April
The world needs a stronger World Trade Organization.
Japan has been stuck in a low growth, low inflation (and at times, deflationary) environment.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina opens with one of the most famous lines in world literature: “All happy families are alike, but every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at -3.3, down 5.9 from last month's 2.6. The 3-month moving average came in at 5.6, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at -6.8, down from the previous month's 2.5.
Month-over-month nominal sales in April were up 0.90% and up 8.19% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.57% and were down 0.04% YoY.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -0.27% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of 0.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.52% MoM.
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -1.2 was an increase of 10.4 from the previous month's -11.6. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 3.0.
In our new piece from the Franklin Templeton Institute, we examine the challenge of feeding a growing global population in the midst of climate change, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty.
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
This morning's release of the May Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was up 1.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from a 0.8% change last month. It is at 16.4% year-over-year, up from a 15.5% increase last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Social Security has a problem.
We are now seeing the highest Headline inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
What will be the Fed's next steps after a rapid course correction?
Investors are a fickle bunch. They love owning stocks when the market goes up. It feels great! So great, in fact, that pesky details like nosebleed valuations or a lack of profitability are easily overlooked. But the romance never lasts.
Luxury-home sales in the US are sinking as inflation, economic uncertainty and the stock-market slump push wealthy buyers to the sidelines.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.58%, up from 8.26% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.02%, down from 6.16% the previous month.
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 390K.
Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.
Let's take a closer look at last week's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
A cooler housing market isn't a bad outcome.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -87.08B was better than the -89.5B Investing.com forecast.
This commentary has been updated to include Friday morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. May saw 390K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. The Investing.com consensus was for 325K jobs gained.
While the danger of a downturn has risen as growth has slowed, most economists argue a contraction is unlikely in the immediate future, given the continued strength of the jobs market and the more than $2 trillion in excess cash on household balance sheets.
Something still feels off in this economy. It’s booming in many respects, with a strong labor market, healthy corporate and household balance sheets, and a lot of consumption. But some, like JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon, are worried we’re seeing the calm before the storm.
Investors are shifting their focus from runaway inflation to slowing global growth as central banks hike rates to tame price pressures.
Strong employment and spending will help the economy grow through current shocks.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Due to stratospheric oil and gas prices, energy stocks have been the one bright spot in an otherwise dour market this year. Through the end of May, the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index gained an incredible 60%, compared to the S&P 500, which fell about 13%.
The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 390K nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 331K service-providing jobs and a gain of 59K goods-producing jobs.
Markets stabilized in May after one of the worst months since the start of the pandemic.
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
The May US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 53.4 percent, down slightly from the final April estimate of 55.6.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at 55.9 percent, down 1.2 from 57.1 last month. Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 56.4 percent.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
The first half of the year has so far been challenging for investors in municipal bonds.
The Federal Reserve looks like it’s finally getting what it really needs in its fight to tame inflation: a cooling in the red-hot labor market.
Elon Musk’s demand that Tesla Inc. staff stop “phoning it in” and get back to the office has thrust the world’s richest person into the noisy debate over the future of work, and shows again that some CEOs remain tone-deaf to employees’ growing demands for flexibility.
US economic growth looks to have downshifted in recent weeks in the face of headwinds that include rising interest rates and inflation, the Federal Reserve said.
Markets flailed in May, seeking certainty amid conflicting signals.
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through April, is now available.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 60.3 in May from 56.4 in April, which is still in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
A majority of borrowers who together hold about $400 billion in federal student debt made no payment on their loans in the pandemic era.
Growth stocks are under acute pressure as rising interest rates change the dynamics that drive equity valuations.
Wedding costs reflect the myriad forces that have driven inflation upward.
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The war in Ukraine will pour more gasoline on the already raging inflationary fire, threatening to send the global economy into stagflation. Stagflation is a slowdown of economic activity caused by inflation.
COVID-19: Coronavirus Coverage
Surging Fuel Costs Are Causing Demand Destruction, Says Vitol
The global surge in the cost of fuel is starting to weigh on demand, according to the world’s biggest independent oil trader.
Richest Billionaires Lose $1.4 Trillion in Worst Half-Year Ever
All told, the world’s 500 richest people lost $1.4 trillion in the first half of 2022, a dizzying decline that marks the steepest six-month drop ever for the global billionaire class.
Dubai Is the Newest Hedge Fund Hotspot
After attracting crypto firms, property investors and Russian billionaires, Dubai is drawing a new crowd: hedge fund managers.
Mid-Year Themes
Inflation, China, Russia, Central Banks, Labor, Recession: It's been quite a year thus far.
Gold Keeps Its Shine for Investors as Other Precious Metals Fade
Investors cut holdings in exchange-traded funds for silver, platinum and palladium in the second quarter on fears that a potential recession will reduce industrial demand, but gold assets held up because of its role as a haven, and that may persist.
Looking for Recession Clues in All the Wrong Places?
How quickly the narrative has shifted back and forth in the money and bond markets.
June ISM Manufacturing Index: Lowest in 2 Years
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for June. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 53.0, a decrease of 3.1 from 56.1 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 54.9.
June Markit Manufacturing: Lowest Since Oct 2020
The June US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 52.7, down 4.3 from the final May figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down Again in May
With the release of this morning's report on May's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal .051% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.08% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.45% nominal and a decrease from the 0.21% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 2.5% nominal and -3.61% real.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in May
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in May rose 0.69% and is up 8.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.10%. The real number is up 1.8% year-over-year.
China’s World-Beating Stock Rally Is Forecast to Strengthen More
It’s official: Chinese equities are once again in vogue, after months of regulatory crackdowns, deleveraging and stringent virus curbs wiped trillions of dollars off benchmark gauges.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down Another 2K
This morning's seasonally adjusted 231K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 2278K.
2022 Global Market Outlook – Q3 update: Fear of the known
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility.
Are We Talking Ourselves Into A Recession?
As I have indicated in recent weeks, I don’t really understand why the media has turned so bearish on the US economy lately, and why so many forecasters are predicting we’re either just about to enter a potentially nasty recession or we’re already in one.
Buffett, Jones and Hamm: An Oil Wisdom Trifecta
Someone once said, “Better than being smart is knowing who is!”
Consumer Confidence Down Again in June
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Some Unsolicited Recession Survival Advice to Gen Z
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Up 20% YoY
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.6% in April
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
World Markets Update: June 27, 2022
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through June 27, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD loss of 1.71%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a loss of 4.99% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a loss of 6.67%. Coming in last is Germany's DAXK with a loss of 19.6% YTD.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Growth Decelerates in June
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for June. The latest general business activity index came in at -17.7, down 10.4 from last month. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
Pending Home Sales Edged Up in May
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
The Decline of Fossil Fuels Is Going to Be Expensive
Gasoline consumption in the US probably peaked in the years before the pandemic.
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Sorry Elon Musk. Hyundai Is Quietly Dominating the EV Race
Pipe down for a second Elon, the hottest things in the auto industry — the most electric electrics — now come from Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp.
Banks Ace Fed Stress Tests, Pave Way for Shareholder Payouts
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Global Commodity Shock Enters Next Phase With Recession Test
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
A Realistic Framing of the Progress in Artificial Intelligence
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
New Home Sales Up 10.7% in May
This morning's release of the May New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 5696K, up 10.7% month-over-month from a revised 629K in April. The Investing.com forecast was for 588K. The median home price is now at $449K.
Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey: Further Slowing in June
The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Stocks Adding to Weekly Gains
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
Tesla Said Readying Its China Factory for Even Greater Volumes
Tesla Inc. is taking steps to ramp up output at its factory in Shanghai, partly suspending manufacturing capabilities at various points through early August to upgrade production lines, according to people familiar with the matter.
Don’t Cry for the Most Wealthy
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
Recession Calls Grow; Mnuchin on Inflation Threat: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
What Does 8% Yield Pay For?
The yield of the U.S. high yield (HY) market, currently at 8.4%, has risen by over 420 basis points since the start of the year.
Respect the Bear
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
Existing-Home Sales: Down 3.4% in May
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
US Sanctions Help China Supercharge Its Chipmaking Industry
China’s chip industry is growing faster than anywhere else in the world, after US sanctions on local champions from Huawei Technologies Co. to Hikvision spurred appetite for home-grown components.
Elon Musk Says Tesla Job Cuts Will Reduce Workforce by 3.5%
Elon Musk confirmed the salaried workforce at Tesla Inc. would be cut by about 10% over the next three months.
Recession Warnings Multiply; Exxon Signs Gas Deal: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
Chicago Fed: "Index suggests economic growth declined in May"
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to +0.01 in May from +0.40 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in May, and two categories deteriorated from April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.20 in May from +0.40 in April
Governance For Global Trade
The world needs a stronger World Trade Organization.
Inflation in Japan Should Be Cheered, Not Feared
Japan has been stuck in a low growth, low inflation (and at times, deflationary) environment.
CB LEI: Falls Again in May
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
Everything You Wanted To Know About Bear Markets
Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina opens with one of the most famous lines in world literature: “All happy families are alike, but every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”
Philly Fed Mfg Index: Activity Weakens in June
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at -3.3, down 5.9 from last month's 2.6. The 3-month moving average came in at 5.6, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at -6.8, down from the previous month's 2.5.
The Big Four: May Real Retail Sales Down 1.2%
Month-over-month nominal sales in April were up 0.90% and up 8.19% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.57% and were down 0.04% YoY.
Retail Sales Down 0.3% in May, Worse Than Forecast
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -0.27% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of 0.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.52% MoM.
Empire State Mfg Survey: Activity Levels Off
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -1.2 was an increase of 10.4 from the previous month's -11.6. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 3.0.
The Future of Food is Technology
In our new piece from the Franklin Templeton Institute, we examine the challenge of feeding a growing global population in the midst of climate change, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty.
Signs Point to Rising Recession Risk
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Global Stock Rout Prompts Call for Back-to-Basics Investing
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Mostly Unchanged in May, Inventory, Inflation, Problematic
The headline number for May came in at 93.1, down fractionally from the previous month. The index is at the 16th percentile in this series.
May Producer Price Index: Final Demand Up 10.8% YoY
This morning's release of the May Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was up 1.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from a 0.8% change last month. It is at 16.4% year-over-year, up from a 15.5% increase last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
Components of the CPI: May
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Social Security: Whistling Past The $96 Trillion Graveyard
Social Security has a problem.
May Inflation: The Components
We are now seeing the highest Headline inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
FOMC Preview
What will be the Fed's next steps after a rapid course correction?
Investor Behavior: A Tragic Love Story
Investors are a fickle bunch. They love owning stocks when the market goes up. It feels great! So great, in fact, that pesky details like nosebleed valuations or a lack of profitability are easily overlooked. But the romance never lasts.
Luxury-Home Sales in US Plunge Most Since Start of the Pandemic
Luxury-home sales in the US are sinking as inflation, economic uncertainty and the stock-market slump push wealthy buyers to the sidelines.
Consumer Price Index: May Headline at 8.58%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.58%, up from 8.26% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.02%, down from 6.16% the previous month.
U.S. Workforce: May 2022 Update
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 390K.
Bull Market Rhymes
Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.
Full-time and Part-time Employment: A Deeper Look
Let's take a closer look at last week's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
Housing Is Correcting, Not Crashing
A cooler housing market isn't a bad outcome.
April Trade Deficit at $87.07B, Better Than Forecast
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -87.08B was better than the -89.5B Investing.com forecast.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: May Employment
This commentary has been updated to include Friday morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. May saw 390K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. The Investing.com consensus was for 325K jobs gained.
US Recession Is Avoidable If Fed Can ‘Thread the Needle’
While the danger of a downturn has risen as growth has slowed, most economists argue a contraction is unlikely in the immediate future, given the continued strength of the jobs market and the more than $2 trillion in excess cash on household balance sheets.
The Biggest Threat to the US Economy Is Policy Makers
Something still feels off in this economy. It’s booming in many respects, with a strong labor market, healthy corporate and household balance sheets, and a lot of consumption. But some, like JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon, are worried we’re seeing the calm before the storm.
Will Corporate Credits Crack as Growth Slows?
Investors are shifting their focus from runaway inflation to slowing global growth as central banks hike rates to tame price pressures.
Recession Talk Is Exaggerated
Strong employment and spending will help the economy grow through current shocks.
The Upside to Record High Gas Prices
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Due to stratospheric oil and gas prices, energy stocks have been the one bright spot in an otherwise dour market this year. Through the end of May, the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index gained an incredible 60%, compared to the S&P 500, which fell about 13%.
May Employment: Services Vs. Goods Producing Jobs
The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 390K nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 331K service-providing jobs and a gain of 59K goods-producing jobs.
Looking Back at the Markets in May and Ahead to June 2022
Markets stabilized in May after one of the worst months since the start of the pandemic.
FOMC Inflation Test Coming
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
May Markit Services PMI: Growth Continues
The May US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 53.4 percent, down slightly from the final April estimate of 55.6.
ISM Services Report: 14 Industries Reported Growth in May
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at 55.9 percent, down 1.2 from 57.1 last month. Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 56.4 percent.
P/E10: May 2022 Update
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
Making The Case for Municipal Bonds Despite Recent Volatility
The first half of the year has so far been challenging for investors in municipal bonds.
The Red-Hot US Labor Market Is Suddenly Not
The Federal Reserve looks like it’s finally getting what it really needs in its fight to tame inflation: a cooling in the red-hot labor market.
Elon Musk's Demand Staffers Stop 'Phoning It in' May Cost Him Talent
Elon Musk’s demand that Tesla Inc. staff stop “phoning it in” and get back to the office has thrust the world’s richest person into the noisy debate over the future of work, and shows again that some CEOs remain tone-deaf to employees’ growing demands for flexibility.
US Economy Shows Signs of Downshifting as Rates, Inflation Bite
US economic growth looks to have downshifted in recent weeks in the face of headwinds that include rising interest rates and inflation, the Federal Reserve said.
Markets Seek Direction, Hope For Soft Landing
Markets flailed in May, seeking certainty amid conflicting signals.
April Job Openings & Labor Turnover: Openings, Layoffs Down
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through April, is now available.
Chicago PMI Increases in May
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 60.3 in May from 56.4 in April, which is still in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
Most Student-Loan Borrowers Made No Payment During US Freeze
A majority of borrowers who together hold about $400 billion in federal student debt made no payment on their loans in the pandemic era.
Capturing Persistent Growth in Volatile Equity Markets
Growth stocks are under acute pressure as rising interest rates change the dynamics that drive equity valuations.
Getting Hitched Is Getting More Expensive
Wedding costs reflect the myriad forces that have driven inflation upward.
An Inside Look at the GDP Q1 Second Estimate
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Six Reasons Inflation is So High
The war in Ukraine will pour more gasoline on the already raging inflationary fire, threatening to send the global economy into stagflation. Stagflation is a slowdown of economic activity caused by inflation.