The latest index came in at 24, up from 22 last month, indicating steady continued expansion in January. The future outlook rose to 37. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales fell in December, denoting two straight months of declines."
U.S. economic growth accelerated by more than forecast in the final three months of last year, fueled by the rebuilding of inventories and a pickup in consumer spending.
The Fed stayed the course today, with no change in the Fed Funds rate, no adjustment to the pace of tapering, no shift in the timeline for raising rates, and no indication that they intend to lift rates in larger steps.
Large hedge funds and private-equity firms may soon have to start reporting steep losses, major redemptions and other extraordinary events in near real-time to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission -- a change that the regulator says will help it protect the financial system during meltdowns and wild swings like the meme stock mania that roiled markets a year ago.
This morning's release of the December New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 811K, up 11.9% month-over-month from a downwardly revised 725K in November. The Investing.com forecast was for 760K. The median home price is now at $377.7K.
Companies are buying raw and intermediate goods at a record pace, which we believe will influence economic growth in 2022.
Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
The headline number of 113.8 was a decrease of 1.4 from the final reading of 115.2 for December.
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.18% increase month over month which is cut to 0.74% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 18.8% YoY increase.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for November. U.S. house prices were up 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 17.6% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.2% in November and up 8.4% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
We've updated this series to include the December release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $45,503, down 6.7% from 45-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +12.3% (+29.2 billion vehicle miles) for November 2021 as compared with November 2020. Travel for the month is estimated to be 267.5 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.92% month-over-month and up 9.5% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.88% month-over-month and up 9.1% year-over-year.
The COVID-19 pandemic looked set to batter the world’s banks—and yet banks’ balance sheets are now the strongest they’ve been since the global financial crisis (GFC).
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.15 in December from +0.44 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, and all four categories deteriorated from November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.33 in December from +0.40 in November.
“Supply chain” used to be a piece of business jargon that rarely made its way into normal conversations.
The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise.
The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.
Headquartered in Japan, Sysmex is the No. 1 provider of blood diagnostics equipment in the world.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was up 0.8% from the November final figure of 119.9. Annual revisions were made.
For China, the year ahead holds special political and economic significance.
All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend.
With January being a month for prognostications, David Mann, our Head of Global Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) Capital Markets, shares his annual outlook for the ETF industry and key trends he sees taking shape in 2022.
This morning's release of the December Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million units from the previous month's 6.49 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 6.44 million. The latest number represents a 6% decrease from the previous month and an 8.3% decrease YoY.
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 23.2, up 7.8 from last month's 15.4. The 3-month moving average came in at 25.9, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 28.7, up 9.7 from the previous month's 19.
New U.S. home construction unexpectedly strengthened in December to the fastest pace in nine months, led by apartment projects and suggesting builders found some success navigating shortages of materials and labor.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 260K new claims, down 30K from the previous week's figure, was at the Investing.com forecast.
Rougher seas lie ahead for non-profit fiduciaries as the COVID-19 pandemic stretches into 2022 and refuses to retreat quietly into the night.
Just three out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 18, 2022. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a YTD gain of 4.29%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a gain of 3.06%, and London's FTSE 100 is in third with a gain of 2.42%. Coming in last is our own S&P with a loss of 3.97%.
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 31, 2021 close.
Members of Loomis Sayles' Global Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -0.7 was a decrease of 32.6 from the previous month's 31.9. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 25.7.
The flow of excess cash has returned to normal, but the stock is still quite elevated.
Few inventions have touched so many lives as the container.
Today I’ll continue the annual forecast I began last week. New COVID developments are unfolding rapidly. If we’re lucky, they may carve out a nice bookend for us. But my worry is that rather than bookends it could be economicus interruptus. 2019 was not portending the most robust of economies. What if, in Groundhog Day fashion, we end up back where we were?
Month-over-month nominal sales in December were down 1.91% and up 16.95% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 2.37% and were up 9.17% YoY.
The strong inflation report combined with employment data will likely prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin hiking its policy rate in March.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.91% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.1%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -2.29% MoM.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the Federal Reserve and the U.S. economy.
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for December. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 199K.
In our Q3 market commentary, we described the primary economic fears behind a lackluster and trendless market.
Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald discusses market risks and opportunities awaiting investors as 2022 begins. Tom will cover an array of topics, including U.S. and international stocks, the economy, interest rates, Fed policy, credit markets, and international strategies. He will dive deep into the impacts of COVID-19 trends and its variants, as well as inflation. He'll explore the prospects for economic growth in the year ahead, plus the possible ramifications of a break in strong pent-up consumer demand.
We are now seeing the highest Headline inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
This morning's release of the December Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was down 0.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 1.1% increase last month. It is at 12.4% year-over-year, down from 13.6% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Finished Goods (less food and energy) came in at 0.6% MoM, unchanged from the previous month and is up 6.5% YoY NSA. The December PPI for Final Demand was at 0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 1.0% increase last month. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts for Final Demand were for 0.4% headline and 0.5% core.
Investors expect the Fed’s bond-buying program to be promptly wound down and have calmly penciled in four increases in interest rates this year, starting in March.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker joined the widespread calls by his policy-making colleagues for higher interest rates this year, saying he favors a March liftoff and three or four hikes for the 2022.
The surge in U.S. retirements during the Covid-19 pandemic was led by older White women without a college education, according to research by the St. Louis Federal Reserve.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The Federal Reserve dealt the bond market a sharp body blow on January 5th with the release of the minutes of its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in December 2021.
The global macro environment is ripe for EM assets outperformance as a combination of stronger growth in China, the end of exceptionalism in the US and less uncertainty on US interest rates, lead to a strong backdrop for EM assets.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 7.04%, up from 6.81% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 5.45%, up from 4.93% the previous month and is above the Fed's 2% PCE target.
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.
Things are about to get worse -- but after that, they should steadily get better. That’s roughly how economists envisage the path of U.S. inflation in the year ahead.
Covid-19 flare-ups, diminished policy support, and lingering supply-chain bottlenecks will see the global economic recovery cool more than previously estimated in 2022, after last year’s expansion clocked the fastest post-recession pace in eight decades, the World Bank said.
That the Covid-19 pandemic would bring a big decline in poverty in the U.S. is not something a lot of people were predicting back in March 2020.
Some of the most exciting growth areas pertain to strong secular trends, many of which are agnostic to the growth potential of any geographic region.
The headline number for December came in at 98.9, up 0.5 from the previous month. The index is at the 44th percentile in this series.
Most global equity managers today are underweight Japan.
Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
Bitcoin dipped below $40,000 for the first time since September, putting it on pace for its worst start to a year since the earliest days of the digital alternative to money.
A direct financial handout to “Gen C” (the covid generation) for their pandemic woes would set age above other societal inequities that Covid amplified.
The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 199K nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 145K service-providing jobs and a gain of 54K goods-producing jobs.
Every year around this time, we update our always-popular Periodic Table of Commodities Returns.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December's 199K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 141K more jobs than previously reported. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%. The Investing.com consensus was for 400K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%.
Rising inflation is troubling bond investors worldwide, but European bond markets will likely experience comparatively weaker inflation pressures and stronger central bank support.
The mixed picture of the U.S. labor market that emerged in 2021 isn’t going anywhere this year.
For emerging-market debt (EMD), 2022 is shaping up to be a contest of conflicting forces.
With both the pandemic and inflation proving longer lasting than many had anticipated, what does that mean for central bank policy in the months ahead?
Loomis Sayles' high yield sector team share their views on rising rates, CCC-rated bonds and where they're seeing potential opportunity in 2022.
Every year has plenty of lessons when looking backward in December.
If you have read the Absolute Return Letter for years, you will be aware that the January letter always stands out from the others.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the December Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at 62.0 percent, down 7.1 from 69.1 last month. Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 66.9 percent.
The December US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.6 percent, down from the final November estimate of 58.0.
Looking at oil and gas stocks this year? Think small and Canadian, at least according to the world’s leading energy fund manager.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -80.17B was worse than the -77.1B Investing.com forecast.
As soon as an asset owner allocates capital to more than one manager, an interaction effect exists which will have an impact on the investor’s overall portfolio outcome.
In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman explains why China’s 2022 investment environment will be defined by two competing weather patterns.
Global central banks are set to spend 2022 diverging, as some take on the menace of inflation and others stay focused on boosting economic growth.
Bond traders are turning into armchair virologists again.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
Small cap growth stocks lagged for most of 2021 as the market simultaneously dealt with the pandemic, inflation, and tightening Fed policy. Given these challenges, we have been focusing on high quality companies trading at attractive valuations, and we have also been looking at non-technology businesses that are embracing digitization.
To kick off our annual sector outlook series, Loomis Sayles Senior Macro Strategies Analyst Craig Burelle shares his views on the macro backdrop in 2022, covering inflation, the Fed and the global expansion.
Global equities surged in 2021 during a year full of surprises.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for December. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 58.7, a decrease of 2.4 from 61.1 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 60.0.
The December US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.7, down 0.6 from the final November figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Here’s how advisors can maximize their event marketing ecosystem to drive more appointments from their in-person and digital events.
News that the U.S. population barely grew this year, together with ever-falling birthrates and the decline in immigration, raises the possibility that the nation will be shrinking in the not-so-distant future. So fewer people should make housing more affordable for those looking for it, right? Well, don't get your hopes up.
Wall Street seers expect the benchmark S&P 500 Index to generate earnings per share that are up 46% this year from 2020’s depressed level, with growth decelerating to 8% in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Even that lower number for the coming year may be too rosy.
To all the record highs, the months without a correction and every other death-defying feat the stock market has pulled off, add another superlative. The S&P 500 Index has now doubled since New Year’s 2018, capping a stretch of sustained strength with few precedents.
COVID-19: Coronavirus Coverage
Kansas City Fed Survey: Activity Expanded in January
The latest index came in at 24, up from 22 last month, indicating steady continued expansion in January. The future outlook rose to 37. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Pending Home Sales Fell in December
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales fell in December, denoting two straight months of declines."
U.S. Economic Growth Quickened Last Quarter With Inventory Boost
U.S. economic growth accelerated by more than forecast in the final three months of last year, fueled by the rebuilding of inventories and a pickup in consumer spending.
Liftoff in March
The Fed stayed the course today, with no change in the Fed Funds rate, no adjustment to the pace of tapering, no shift in the timeline for raising rates, and no indication that they intend to lift rates in larger steps.
Hedge Funds Face New SEC Disclosures as Gensler Cracks Down
Large hedge funds and private-equity firms may soon have to start reporting steep losses, major redemptions and other extraordinary events in near real-time to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission -- a change that the regulator says will help it protect the financial system during meltdowns and wild swings like the meme stock mania that roiled markets a year ago.
New Home Sales Up 11.9% in December
This morning's release of the December New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 811K, up 11.9% month-over-month from a downwardly revised 725K in November. The Investing.com forecast was for 760K. The median home price is now at $377.7K.
Precautionary Stockpiling and Its Impact on Growth
Companies are buying raw and intermediate goods at a record pace, which we believe will influence economic growth in 2022.
1Q 2022 Outlooks from the Calamos Investment Team
Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
Consumer Confidence Fell in January
The headline number of 113.8 was a decrease of 1.4 from the final reading of 115.2 for December.
November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Index up 18.8% YoY
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.18% increase month over month which is cut to 0.74% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 18.8% YoY increase.
FHFA House Price Index: Up Another 1.1% in November
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for November. U.S. house prices were up 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 17.6% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.2% in November and up 8.4% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Middle-Class Hourly Wages as of December 2021
We've updated this series to include the December release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $45,503, down 6.7% from 45-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
America's Driving Habits as of November 2021
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +12.3% (+29.2 billion vehicle miles) for November 2021 as compared with November 2020. Travel for the month is estimated to be 267.5 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.92% month-over-month and up 9.5% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.88% month-over-month and up 9.1% year-over-year.
Why Banks' Balance Sheets Are in Better Shape
The COVID-19 pandemic looked set to batter the world’s banks—and yet banks’ balance sheets are now the strongest they’ve been since the global financial crisis (GFC).
Chicago Fed: "Index suggests economic growth declined in December"
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.15 in December from +0.44 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, and all four categories deteriorated from November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.33 in December from +0.40 in November.
Supply Side Problems Persist
“Supply chain” used to be a piece of business jargon that rarely made its way into normal conversations.
Gasoline Volume Sales Down 8.9% YoY
The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.
The WisdomTree Q1 2022 Economic and Market Outlook in 10 Charts or Less
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise.
Bolstering Asset Allocation Defenses Against COVID-19
The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.
Spotlight Sysmex: On the Bleeding Edge of Health Care Diagnostics
Headquartered in Japan, Sysmex is the No. 1 provider of blood diagnostics equipment in the world.
CB LEI: Rising Trajectory Continues in December
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was up 0.8% from the November final figure of 119.9. Annual revisions were made.
China’s Economy in the Year of the Tiger
For China, the year ahead holds special political and economic significance.
Let The Wild Rumpus Begin
All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend.
ETF Trends to Watch in 2022: Conversions, International Interest and Sustainable Funds
With January being a month for prognostications, David Mann, our Head of Global Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) Capital Markets, shares his annual outlook for the ETF industry and key trends he sees taking shape in 2022.
Existing-Home Sales: Down 6% from November and 8.3% YoY
This morning's release of the December Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million units from the previous month's 6.49 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 6.44 million. The latest number represents a 6% decrease from the previous month and an 8.3% decrease YoY.
Philly Fed Mfg Index: Growth Continues
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 23.2, up 7.8 from last month's 15.4. The 3-month moving average came in at 25.9, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 28.7, up 9.7 from the previous month's 19.
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Unexpectedly on Multifamily Building
New U.S. home construction unexpectedly strengthened in December to the fastest pace in nine months, led by apartment projects and suggesting builders found some success navigating shortages of materials and labor.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 30K
This morning's seasonally adjusted 260K new claims, down 30K from the previous week's figure, was at the Investing.com forecast.
The 2022 List Issue, Part 5: 4 Steps for Non-Profit Fiduciaries to Consider This Year
Rougher seas lie ahead for non-profit fiduciaries as the COVID-19 pandemic stretches into 2022 and refuses to retreat quietly into the night.
World Markets Update: January 18, 2022
Just three out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 18, 2022. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a YTD gain of 4.29%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a gain of 3.06%, and London's FTSE 100 is in third with a gain of 2.42%. Coming in last is our own S&P with a loss of 3.97%.
The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 31, 2021 close.
2022 Global Credit Outlook: Views on Growth, the ECB and ESG Investing
Members of Loomis Sayles' Global Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
Empire State Mfg Survey: Activity Leveled Off
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -0.7 was a decrease of 32.6 from the previous month's 31.9. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 25.7.
Last Year's Saving Is This Year’s Spending
The flow of excess cash has returned to normal, but the stock is still quite elevated.
Consider the Humble Shipping Container
Few inventions have touched so many lives as the container.
Year of the Bookends
Today I’ll continue the annual forecast I began last week. New COVID developments are unfolding rapidly. If we’re lucky, they may carve out a nice bookend for us. But my worry is that rather than bookends it could be economicus interruptus. 2019 was not portending the most robust of economies. What if, in Groundhog Day fashion, we end up back where we were?
The Big Four: December Real Retail Sales Down 2.4%
Month-over-month nominal sales in December were down 1.91% and up 16.95% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 2.37% and were up 9.17% YoY.
December CPI Data Suggests U.S. Inflation May Be Stabilizing, But Hasn’t Peaked Yet
The strong inflation report combined with employment data will likely prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin hiking its policy rate in March.
Retail Sales Down 1.9% in December, Up 16.9% YoY
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.91% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.1%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -2.29% MoM.
In Like A Lion
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the Federal Reserve and the U.S. economy.
U.S. Workforce: December 2021 Update
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for December. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 199K.
The Long and Winding Road That Leads to ‘Normal’
In our Q3 market commentary, we described the primary economic fears behind a lackluster and trendless market.
Where We Stand: Transamerica 2022 Market Outlook
Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald discusses market risks and opportunities awaiting investors as 2022 begins. Tom will cover an array of topics, including U.S. and international stocks, the economy, interest rates, Fed policy, credit markets, and international strategies. He will dive deep into the impacts of COVID-19 trends and its variants, as well as inflation. He'll explore the prospects for economic growth in the year ahead, plus the possible ramifications of a break in strong pent-up consumer demand.
December Inflation: The Components
We are now seeing the highest Headline inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
December Producer Price Index: Final Demand Up 9.7% YoY
This morning's release of the December Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was down 0.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 1.1% increase last month. It is at 12.4% year-over-year, down from 13.6% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Finished Goods (less food and energy) came in at 0.6% MoM, unchanged from the previous month and is up 6.5% YoY NSA. The December PPI for Final Demand was at 0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 1.0% increase last month. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts for Final Demand were for 0.4% headline and 0.5% core.
As Inflation Soars, the Fed Needs to Keep Its Head
Investors expect the Fed’s bond-buying program to be promptly wound down and have calmly penciled in four increases in interest rates this year, starting in March.
Fed’s Harker Sees Liftoff in March, Three or Four Hikes in 2022
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker joined the widespread calls by his policy-making colleagues for higher interest rates this year, saying he favors a March liftoff and three or four hikes for the 2022.
‘Great Retirement’ in U.S. Is Driven by Older Female Baby Boomers
The surge in U.S. retirements during the Covid-19 pandemic was led by older White women without a college education, according to research by the St. Louis Federal Reserve.
Components of the CPI: December 2021
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The Fed’s Policy Tightening Plan: A One-Two Punch
The Federal Reserve dealt the bond market a sharp body blow on January 5th with the release of the minutes of its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in December 2021.
Four Mega-Trends Shaping the 2022 Outlook and Beyond
The global macro environment is ripe for EM assets outperformance as a combination of stronger growth in China, the end of exceptionalism in the US and less uncertainty on US interest rates, lead to a strong backdrop for EM assets.
Consumer Price Index: December Headline at 7.04%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 7.04%, up from 6.81% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 5.45%, up from 4.93% the previous month and is above the Fed's 2% PCE target.
Investing in a Fast‑Moving Cycle
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.
The Clashing Forces That Will Drive U.S. Inflation in 2022
Things are about to get worse -- but after that, they should steadily get better. That’s roughly how economists envisage the path of U.S. inflation in the year ahead.
World Bank Cuts Global Growth Forecast on Virus Flare-Ups
Covid-19 flare-ups, diminished policy support, and lingering supply-chain bottlenecks will see the global economic recovery cool more than previously estimated in 2022, after last year’s expansion clocked the fastest post-recession pace in eight decades, the World Bank said.
Bigger Child Tax Credits Can Pay Dividends for U.S.
That the Covid-19 pandemic would bring a big decline in poverty in the U.S. is not something a lot of people were predicting back in March 2020.
International and Global Markets Commentary & Investment Outlook
Some of the most exciting growth areas pertain to strong secular trends, many of which are agnostic to the growth potential of any geographic region.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Up Slightly in December
The headline number for December came in at 98.9, up 0.5 from the previous month. The index is at the 44th percentile in this series.
Japan Equities: Entrenched Perceptions Ignore Improving Reality
Most global equity managers today are underweight Japan.
Full-time and Part-time Employment: A Deeper Look
Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
Bitcoin Is Off to Its Worst Annual Start Since the Dawn of Crypto
Bitcoin dipped below $40,000 for the first time since September, putting it on pace for its worst start to a year since the earliest days of the digital alternative to money.
Trust Funds Shouldn’t Just Be For Rich Kids
A direct financial handout to “Gen C” (the covid generation) for their pandemic woes would set age above other societal inequities that Covid amplified.
December Employment: Services Vs. Goods Producing Jobs
The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 199K nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 145K service-providing jobs and a gain of 54K goods-producing jobs.
Commodities Notched Their Best Year Since 2009, Despite Precious Metals Weakness
Every year around this time, we update our always-popular Periodic Table of Commodities Returns.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: December Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December's 199K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 141K more jobs than previously reported. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%. The Investing.com consensus was for 400K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%.
European Fixed-Income Outlook: Euro Markets Will Stand Out in 2022
Rising inflation is troubling bond investors worldwide, but European bond markets will likely experience comparatively weaker inflation pressures and stronger central bank support.
Normalizing But Not Back to Normal: The U.S. Job Market in 2022
The mixed picture of the U.S. labor market that emerged in 2021 isn’t going anywhere this year.
Emerging-Market Debt Outlook: Mixed Conditions in 2022
For emerging-market debt (EMD), 2022 is shaping up to be a contest of conflicting forces.
K2 Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook: First Quarter 2022
With both the pandemic and inflation proving longer lasting than many had anticipated, what does that mean for central bank policy in the months ahead?
2022 High Yield Credit Outlook: Views on Policy, Ratings and Opportunity
Loomis Sayles' high yield sector team share their views on rising rates, CCC-rated bonds and where they're seeing potential opportunity in 2022.
To Infinity and Beyond – and the Usual New Year Review Stuff
Every year has plenty of lessons when looking backward in December.
The Reincarnation of Fossil Fuels?
If you have read the Absolute Return Letter for years, you will be aware that the January letter always stands out from the others.
ISM Services Report: Growth Continues in December
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the December Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at 62.0 percent, down 7.1 from 69.1 last month. Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 66.9 percent.
December Markit Services PMI: Demand Strengthens in December
The December US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.6 percent, down from the final November estimate of 58.0.
Stick With Canada in 2022, Top-Performing Energy Investor Says
Looking at oil and gas stocks this year? Think small and Canadian, at least according to the world’s leading energy fund manager.
November Trade Deficit at $80.2B, Worse Than Forecast
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -80.17B was worse than the -77.1B Investing.com forecast.
Repurposing a Passive Allocation With a Completion Portfolio
As soon as an asset owner allocates capital to more than one manager, an interaction effect exists which will have an impact on the investor’s overall portfolio outcome.
China 2022: Competing Weather Patterns
In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman explains why China’s 2022 investment environment will be defined by two competing weather patterns.
Inflation Menace vs Pandemic Recovery: Central Bank Guide for 2022
Global central banks are set to spend 2022 diverging, as some take on the menace of inflation and others stay focused on boosting economic growth.
The Bond Market Sends a Hopeful Message About Omicron
Bond traders are turning into armchair virologists again.
P/E10: December 2021 Update
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
In Search of Upside: Finding Opportunities in Small Cap Growth
Small cap growth stocks lagged for most of 2021 as the market simultaneously dealt with the pandemic, inflation, and tightening Fed policy. Given these challenges, we have been focusing on high quality companies trading at attractive valuations, and we have also been looking at non-technology businesses that are embracing digitization.
2022 Macro Outlook: Views on Inflation, the Fed and the Expansion
To kick off our annual sector outlook series, Loomis Sayles Senior Macro Strategies Analyst Craig Burelle shares his views on the macro backdrop in 2022, covering inflation, the Fed and the global expansion.
Equity Outlook: Get Ready for Another Year of Surprises
Global equities surged in 2021 during a year full of surprises.
December ISM Manufacturing Index: Slight Improvement in Labor Resources & Supplier Delivery
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for December. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 58.7, a decrease of 2.4 from 61.1 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 60.0.
December Markit Manufacturing: Production Growth Constrained
The December US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.7, down 0.6 from the final November figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
How Advisors can Optimize Event Marketing
Here’s how advisors can maximize their event marketing ecosystem to drive more appointments from their in-person and digital events.
U.S. Housing Crisis Only Gets Worse as Population Shrinks
News that the U.S. population barely grew this year, together with ever-falling birthrates and the decline in immigration, raises the possibility that the nation will be shrinking in the not-so-distant future. So fewer people should make housing more affordable for those looking for it, right? Well, don't get your hopes up.
It's All Uphill From Here for Corporate America
Wall Street seers expect the benchmark S&P 500 Index to generate earnings per share that are up 46% this year from 2020’s depressed level, with growth decelerating to 8% in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Even that lower number for the coming year may be too rosy.
Three Monster Years for the S&P 500 Set a Towering Bar for January
To all the record highs, the months without a correction and every other death-defying feat the stock market has pulled off, add another superlative. The S&P 500 Index has now doubled since New Year’s 2018, capping a stretch of sustained strength with few precedents.