The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.
A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.
That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.
Powell will hint at normalizing monetary policy, but at a measured pace.
The tea trade has lessons for today’s global commerce.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
I chaired an international economics conference in Canada earlier this month. Delegates from all over the world attended to discuss the issues of the day. Following is an abridged version of the meeting summary that I offered during the closing session.
Analysts periodically construct elegant algorithms that produce interesting conclusions, only to learn that the underlying information is flawed.
The Federal Reserve is in the pilot’s seat as the American economy approaches a soft landing. The runway is in sight, but some careful maneuvering will still be needed.
History suggests that it is better to embrace progress than hinder it.
Tariffs do more harm than good to nations that impose them.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets, with a spotlight on the eurozone.
Lower inflation does not mean lower prices.
Mining brings economic benefit and environmental costs.
I will never forget the first auction I witnessed. It took place during one of the many summers that I spent on a farm. The auctioneer talked exceedingly quickly, but those in the crowd seemed to understand everything he said.
This year's venture to Asia was informative and delicious.
New tariffs will renew trade tensions.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
Will the rapid growth of private credit impair financial stability?
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.
AI adoption will dent the fight against climate change.
The stronger U.S. dollar is benefiting America, but creating troubles in other geographies.
Government economic intervention has persisted since the pandemic.
Dr. Bernanke found significant shortcomings in the BoE's forecasting.
We’ve covered some of the issues related to America’s fiscal crisis in recent months.
Daniel Kahneman will be missed. But his work on behavioral economics will forever be with us.
We need a much more conservative approach to projecting budget outcomes.
Cautious investment is holding back the outlook for European nations.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets, with a spotlight on China.
Europe needs to boost defense spending while managing stretched fiscal positions.
Food prices are dragging down feelings about the economy.
European nations still have a long energy transition ahead.
Consumers are less willing to spend freely.
The challenges in banks' portfolios will work out over time.
Saving rates rose immensely across economies during the pandemic period. Government support programs, many designed to stimulate demand, elevated household incomes.
There are about 44 million American men between the ages of 25 and 44, a time of life which is traditionally associated with high rates of employment. Yet members of this cohort are much less likely to be working than they were 20 years ago.
The Fed’s balance sheet could stabilize this year, but details are unclear.
The promise of GLP-1 drugs goes far beyond individual weight loss.
The economics team shares a few things that have been on our minds.
The economics teams looks back at the most significant stories we covered during 2023.
American consumers are becoming more frugal this holiday season.
Food prices illustrate several challenges of containing inflation.
The potency of monetary policy will weigh more heavily on activity in 2024.
Companies are rethinking office space.
The banking system has stabilized, but latent threats remain.
Forecasting economic outcomes is a challenging exercise, even under steady conditions. Geopolitical events have only added to the complexity facing economies worldwide.
The longer the U.S. debt is left to grow, the harder it will be to correct.
The U.S. economy’s remarkable resilience is complicating the lives of investors and the Federal Reserve. Despite war-disrupted commodity markets and one of the most aggressive monetary tightening phases in modern history, economic activity has remained strong.
