Commentary

Down on the Biden Economy

Whatever stories Americans are told about the strength of the economy under President Joe Biden, they are not going to be persuaded to look past the issue of their own living standards. For most Americans, these have declined somewhat as price increases have outpaced wage growth.

Commentary

The Debt Supercycle Comes to China

While some economists may argue that secular stagnation is to blame for China’s economic slowdown, concerns about sustained slower growth are overblown. If the country falls into a recession, it would constitute the next turn of the debt supercycle that began in the US in 2008 and moved to Europe in 2010.

Commentary

Simplifying a Complicated Global Economy

With so many moving pieces, and under such unconventional conditions, navigating today’s global economic landscape would be challenging for anyone. But even if we cannot anticipate every contingency, we can understand quite a lot by assessing the US Federal Reserve’s prospects for engineering a soft economic landing in the near term.

Commentary

Europe Must Lead Ukraine’s Reconstruction

After 17 months of intense fighting, the costs of rebuilding Ukraine will most likely be far higher than previously expected. European countries, which have repeatedly pledged to support Ukraine but have contributed relatively little to its defense thus far, must coordinate and facilitate this effort.

Commentary

Investment Theory in Practice

Although past performance is never a guarantee of future results, it remains the case that stock-market valuations tend to outstrip bonds most of the time. Still, arriving at the best investment strategy is about more than simply doing the math; it also requires an appreciation of history and tail risks.

Commentary

The Multilateral Development Banks the World Needs

Multilateral development banks are the only institutions that provide the combination of expertise, staying power, low-cost financing, leverage, and knowledge-sharing capabilities needed to assist developing countries. But to help transform these countries' future, the MDBs must first transform themselves.

Commentary

Finding Growth in a Fractured World

The Chinese economy’s current travails illustrate the growth challenges facing many other countries around the world. By re-engineering ineffective growth models and improving domestic economic management, developed and developing countries can avoid falling into the growth trap China now finds itself in.

Commentary

Rethinking Climate Finance for the Developing World

For decades, rich countries have urged developing countries to shift away from fossil fuels while failing to heed their own advice or offer meaningful funding. Kenyan President William Ruto’s recent call to establish a new “global green bank” is the sort of thoughtful proposal that developed countries must seriously consider.

Commentary

A Mild Global Contraction Is Coming

While a severe hurricane for the global economy looks less likely than a few months ago, we are still likely to encounter a tropical storm that could cause significant damage. Much will depend on how major central banks confront the trilemma of simultaneously maintaining price, growth, and financial stability.

Commentary

The US Debt Ceiling Debacle Is Not Over

The latest last-minute deal to raise the US debt limit does not solve the underlying political problem. On the contrary, with the country on track for a Biden-Trump rematch next year – a contest that Trump just might win – the truce is likely to be short-lived.

Commentary

America and China Are on a Collision Course

The G7 countries may have set out to deter China without escalating the new cold war, but the perception in Beijing suggests that they failed to thread the needle at their recent summit in Hiroshima.

Commentary

Why the Fed Is Hard to Predict

The US Federal Reserve is adrift, and it has only itself to blame. Regardless of whether its policy-setting committee announces another interest-rate hike in June, its top priority now should be to address the structural weaknesses that led it astray in the first place.

Commentary

No Respite from the Slow-Motion US-China Collision

Despite US efforts to de-escalate tensions with China and Chinese officials’ wariness of economic decoupling, attempting to restore trust between the two powers seems futile. In this increasingly fraught climate, fragmentation trumps cooperation, and the danger of a military conflict over Taiwan looms large.

Commentary

Biden’s South American Blind Spot

Despite its commitment to curbing China’s geopolitical ambitions, the Biden administration has done little to counter the country’s expanding economic footprint in South America. Given the region’s crucial role in the fight against climate change, the US can no longer afford to take its southern neighbors for granted.

Commentary

The Fed’s Credibility Problem

The US Federal Reserve's growing list of policymaking, supervisory, and communications failures is becoming increasingly consequential not just for Americans but also for the rest of the world.