Commentary

Can China Get Out of Its Rut?

Nouriel Roubini, Stephen S. Roach, Nancy Qian, and more assess what it will take to improve the country’s economic prospects.

Commentary

The World Is Still on Fire

For the last several years, world leaders have made big promises and laid out bold plans to mitigate the climate crisis and help the neediest countries adapt. At this year's World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings, they must demonstrate that they can fulfill these promises, rather than simply touting new ones.

Commentary

Can Europe’s Economy Exceed Expectations in 2024?

Germany’s ongoing economic weakness suggests that the European Union’s long-term economic slump is not likely to end anytime soon. But with traditional laggards like Italy and France showing signs of recovery, and Central and East European members performing well, the bloc’s economic outlook could still take a turn for the better.

Commentary

The Struggle for Currency Supremacy

The question of whether the US dollar will be dethroned by a cryptocurrency, a stablecoin, or some other digital asset or payments system ultimately misses the point. What really matters is the mix of possible alternatives that today's evolving financial landscape will offer to governments pursuing a geopolitical advantage.

Commentary

China Confronts the Middle-Income Trap

While China obviously needs to boost private-sector confidence and revive growth with a more sustainable economic model, it is not clear that Chinese leaders fully appreciate the challenges they face. The shift back to state capitalism over the last decade is plainly incompatible with President Xi Jinping’s development goals.

Commentary

The Indian Giant Has Arrived

With India's development continuing to gain steam, one of the biggest challenges will be to avoid the mistake that others have made when they failed to recognize their newly acquired global systemic influence and adapt accordingly. Both China and Big Tech show that it is never too early to start managing one's own rise.

Commentary

A Big Defeat for Big Tech

Tech companies know that if there is an open, democratic debate about data security, consumers’ concerns about digital safeguards will win out. And while the industry's lobbyists tried to ensure that no such debate could ever occur, one of their more cynical moves has now been exposed and thwarted.

Commentary

What Soft Landing?

The economic outlook in the United States is unusually murky, with different sets of indicators telling different stories. But it is entirely possible that inflation will get stuck at a level inconsistent with the US Federal Reserve’s target, reducing – perhaps even to zero – the number of interest-rate cuts this year.

Commentary

Trump and the Global Economic Risk Picture

Although the world is beset by wars, rising great-power tensions, and other geopolitical risks, most of these factors have not radically affected the outlook for economies and markets in the near term. But that could change if the United States returns to an aggressive "America First" posture.

Commentary

What’s Behind the US Stock-Market Disconnect?

Buoyed by the artificial-intelligence boom, the US stock market is breaking records with no apparent end in sight. But given the significant challenges and uncertainties facing the American economy regardless of who occupies the White House in 2025, there is little reason to believe that the current rally can last.

Commentary

Will the US Economy Drive Global Growth this Year?

Despite rosy forecasts, the US economy faces powerful headwinds that call into question its ability to serve as the world’s main growth driver. These challenges are compounded by domestic and geopolitical uncertainties that have not been reflected in market valuations and economic assessments.

Commentary

The Middle Truth in the Inflation Muddle

Critics of the Federal Reserve argue that the acceleration of US inflation in early 2021, and the rapid disinflation of recent months, had nothing to do with monetary policy, because the sources of above-target price growth were all on the supply side. This view is both right and too simple.

Commentary

Artificial Intelligence vs. Human Stupidity

There is no shortage of hope – and hype – about what artificial intelligence could do for productivity and economic growth in the future. But we must bear in mind that our politics have proven too dysfunctional, and our policies too misguided, to manage even the most obvious threats to our future.

Commentary

Don’t Count on a Soft Landing for the Global Economy

Despite analysts’ increasingly optimistic forecasts for the coming year, the risks to global growth are still tilted to the downside. In fact, recent developments in China, Europe, and the United States suggest that the world economy’s biggest challenges may lie ahead.

Commentary

Reform Antitrust and Patent Laws Now

Despite its original stated goal, US antitrust policy has always been used merely to ensure the free entry of competitors into all markets, rather than to address the problem of market power. But in the age of Big Tech, this approach has become woefully inadequate.