With wage growth still strong and unemployment low, the labour market is still historically tight. For now.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures eased in December to the slowest annual paces in over a year while consumer spending fell, helping pave the way for policymakers to further scale back the pace of interest-rate hikes.
The US Treasury’s quarterly financing estimates due next week will be closely watched to gauge the department’s view on how the debt-ceiling drama will unfold.
It is believed that during stagflation, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe haven asset as the economic and financial conditions are uncertain. Additionally, gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, as its value is not tied to any currency or government.
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
Here are six steps to implement multiple niches, bring in new clients, and accelerate their growth goals.
US dollar cycles are long.
The looming fight to raise the federal debt limit is drawing parallels to 2011 and 2008, neither of which is especially encouraging.
For the first time, the world invested as much money into replacing fossil fuels as it spent on producing oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF.
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
Six Wall Street banks are being pressed by a group of shareholders to move faster on reducing their financing of fossil fuels to meet global climate goals.
Older advisors need to step aside and make room for the up and comers.
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
As of January 23, the price of regular and premium gas were up 11 and 9 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.94 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.05. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $81.62 and is up 1.8% from last week.
Joe Biden entered the Oval Office with relatively low approval ratings.
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and eclipsing one of history’s most successful financial plays.
Word is out among hedge fund managers on how to get tax breaks for giving to charity - without actually handing over their money just yet. They can even keep it in their funds.
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 20, 2023. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Sent with a YTD gain of 11.44%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 8.07%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 7.97%. Coming in last for the third straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 0.36% YTD.
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 20, 2023 at 3.48%, the two-year note ended at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 3.66%.
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
We call them narratives, memes, or mind viruses.
Month-over-month nominal sales in November was down 1.15% and up 6.02% YoY. Real retail sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted CPI, decreased by 1.07% and was down 0.38% YoY.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
Portfolio Manager Michael Oh, CFA, reviews what he seeks out in innovative companies and why he thinks Asia may be in the early innings of innovation in more than technology.
Oil prices continue to struggle as recession fears have curtailed the market is recent months.
It is a challenge to design a website that addresses the needs and questions of multiple client types.
We wrote last week about the soft landing that markets now seem to expect.
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
The process by which advisors select a TAMP is the latest illustration of fiduciary failure, and the SEC has responded with ominous rulemaking that will have questionable value to our profession.
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that the US economy is still facing a recession this year, despite encouraging news in recent weeks.
As we start the year 2023, we are reminded of the profound poetry from the band, Echosmith, in the song, “Cool Kids.” It can teach us about what it takes to succeed in long-duration common stock investing currently.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Welcome to tax season, TikTok edition.
Each year presents its own challenges, and 2023 is no exception, with economic uncertainty riding high, geopolitical tensions rising and the policy landscape shifting.
In 2022, inflation and interest rates both rose substantially, creating the near-term potential for a recession.
Workers and managers are in a tug-of-war over return to office policies.
U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.
U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
US inflation continued to slow in December, adding to evidence price pressures have peaked and putting the Federal Reserve on track to again slow the pace of interest-rate hikes.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 6.45%, down from 7.11% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 5.71%, down from 5.96% the previous month.
The market volatility and interest-rate hikes that gave US banks their biggest windfall last year may prove to be their biggest headache in 2023.
With winter not fully upon us, European industrial production has benefitted from lower energy prices.
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
Although inflation appears to have peaked, historical data suggests that prices are unlikely to reverse themselves, which could lead to an extended period of wage inflation.
Gold prices have increased to start 2023 as the dollar index extends last Friday's losses.
The question that obsessed financial markets last year was when and where US inflation would peak. The 2023 version will likely be how far, and how fast, it comes down.
When the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, triggering the largest-ever oil spill in the US, all eyes turned to BP Plc, the British company behind the drilling. But BP wasn’t alone in the project.
Commodities may seem like just another one of the bunch, but these products offer a unique way to invest your money in the market.
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
An era of low inflation and low interest rates has ended.
Welcome to 2023. It’s Forecast Season on Wall Street, the time when everyone tells us what to expect for the new year. Do they really know? Of course not. Forecasters don’t know, investors know they don’t know, yet we all go through this exercise anyway.
Investors who use a 60/40 portfolio had a rough year. In the past, putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds has often helped investors hedge against losses in either asset class. But 2022 had other ideas.
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 30, 2022 close.
Engage in activities that position you as a trusted authority.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December saw a 223K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%. The Investing.com consensus was for 200K jobs gained.
The March contract for the Bloomberg Commodity Index (ERH23) was down for the third consecutive day on Thursday. Since ending 2022 at 112.80, the contract is down 5.03 at 107.77.
Just recently, James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, suggested the central bank might need to employ the “7% solution” to ensure the complete destruction of inflation.
The U.S. economy continually showed its resiliency through a challenging year.
Over the long-term, the fundamentals of the dollar suggest a downward bias is likely.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The headline number of -$61.5B was better than the -73.0B Investing.com forecast.
The US stock market will bottom by the middle of 2023 as the Federal Reserve tamps down inflation without causing anything worse than a “mild” economic recession, according to Byron Wien’s annual list of surprises.
Perhaps the most famous trading experiment ever conducted was when commodities investor Richard Dennis bet his partner William Eckhardt in 1983 that he could train a group of amateurs – dubbed “the Turtles” -- to be successful futures traders.
U.S. equities are solidly higher in afternoon action, paring some of the losses that have plagued the start of 2023.
2022 wasn’t the easiest of years to handle for investors.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for December. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 48.4, down 0.6 from the previous month and in contraction territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 48.5.
The December S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 46.2, down 1.5 from the final November figure and in contraction territory for the second consecutive month. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Here are my five golden rules of marketing for advisors from Warren Buffett.
As of December 30, 2022, the 10-year note was 336 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Commodities
The Labor Market Is Still Historically Tight
With wage growth still strong and unemployment low, the labour market is still historically tight. For now.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
Bitcoin Barrels Toward Historic January as Crypto Market Jumps by $280 Billion
Bitcoin is set for its best January since 2013 on bets that monetary tightening and the crypto-sector crisis are both ebbing.
Growth Pains
In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.
I Asked ChatGPT to Write About Airline Deregulation in the U.S. Here’s How It Went
Since its launch in November, ChatGPT has been a smash hit. To explore the benefits of airline deregulation in the U.S., we sought the help of the AI content generator.
Key Inflation Gauge Cools Further, Paving Way for Smaller Fed Rate Hike
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures eased in December to the slowest annual paces in over a year while consumer spending fell, helping pave the way for policymakers to further scale back the pace of interest-rate hikes.
Debt-Ceiling Saga Puts the Treasury’s Financing Estimates Under Scrutiny
The US Treasury’s quarterly financing estimates due next week will be closely watched to gauge the department’s view on how the debt-ceiling drama will unfold.
Stagflation! Is Now the time to buy Precious Metals
It is believed that during stagflation, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe haven asset as the economic and financial conditions are uncertain. Additionally, gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, as its value is not tied to any currency or government.
Elephant in the Room
The current debt ceiling debate in Congress is a great reminder that investors should always prepare for the unexpected and invest in companies that are durable enough to withstand a range of economic scenarios.
An Uncommon Approach to Implementing Multiple Niches
Here are six steps to implement multiple niches, bring in new clients, and accelerate their growth goals.
The Buck Stops Here
US dollar cycles are long.
Five Things to Watch For in the Debt-Ceiling Talks
The looming fight to raise the federal debt limit is drawing parallels to 2011 and 2008, neither of which is especially encouraging.
$1 Trillion Green Investment Matches Fossil Fuels for First Time
For the first time, the world invested as much money into replacing fossil fuels as it spent on producing oil, gas and coal, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF.
Big Oil Faces Headwinds After Record $199 Billion Profit Haul
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year but fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over China’s re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.
Big Banks Told to Phase Out Financing of New Fossil-Fuel Projects
Six Wall Street banks are being pressed by a group of shareholders to move faster on reducing their financing of fossil fuels to meet global climate goals.
In Defense of Millennials
Older advisors need to step aside and make room for the up and comers.
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: Regular and Premium Increase for 4th Consecutive Week
As of January 23, the price of regular and premium gas were up 11 and 9 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for regular at $4.94 and Texas has the cheapest at $3.05. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $81.62 and is up 1.8% from last week.
What Would an Early Biden Departure Mean for Markets?
Joe Biden entered the Oval Office with relatively low approval ratings.
Recession Fear Investing
A recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!
The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.
Citadel's $16 Billion Win Tops Paulson's Greatest Trade Ever
Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and eclipsing one of history’s most successful financial plays.
Hedge Fund Managers Score Tax Break While Keeping Investment Control
Word is out among hedge fund managers on how to get tax breaks for giving to charity - without actually handing over their money just yet. They can even keep it in their funds.
World Markets Update: January 20, 2023
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 20, 2023. The top performer is Hong Kong's Hang Sent with a YTD gain of 11.44%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a YTD gain of 8.07%, and Germany's DAXK remains in third with a YTD gain of 7.97%. Coming in last for the third straight week is India's BSE SENEX with a loss of 0.36% YTD.
Amazon Is a Value Stock in Topsy-Turvy New World of Investing
The death of the cheap-money era is redrawing Corporate America’s earnings map - upending a decade of Wall Street wisdom over which stocks are the bargain buys or the high fliers of tomorrow.
The Crypto Crackdown Is Just Getting Started
There was much mirth online when the US Justice Department announced the arrest of crypto exchange Bitzlato’s founder last week.
Wall Street Quants Shouldn't Confuse Luck With Skill
Making optimistic predictions either makes you look foolish if bad things happen or be forgotten if nothing bad happens.
Fed Up: Can the Fed Accommodate the Market?
2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation.
Stocks Adding to Friday's Rally, Flood of Earnings Data Looms
U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.
Episode 34: Revenge of the Old Economy
Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.
A Powerful New Tool Transforms How Billionaires Give Fortunes Away
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has one.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
Fund Managers Are Betting On China Stocks And Commodities As The Country Reopens
A January survey conducted by Bank of America shows that 91% of money managers believe China will “fully reopen” in 2023. That’s a significant increase from December 2022. Growth expectations for the country are also at a 17-year high.
Treasury Snapshot: January 20, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 20, 2023 at 3.48%, the two-year note ended at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 3.66%.
Stocks Higher Heading into the Weekend
U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.
Quarterly Letter – January 2023
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp review what happened in 2022 regarding inflation, interest rates, the housing market, supply disruptions, energy problems, and foreign currency turbulence.
Strategic Income Outlook: Was This a Crazy Year or What?
2022 was a difficult year for bond investors, but the combination of high inflation and tighter Fed policy should keep yields elevated, creating materially stronger fixed income returns in the new year.
Payden & Rygel 2023 Macro Outlook: Macro Memes & Mind Viruses
We call them narratives, memes, or mind viruses.
The Big Four: December Real Retail Sales Continue to Decline
Month-over-month nominal sales in November was down 1.15% and up 6.02% YoY. Real retail sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted CPI, decreased by 1.07% and was down 0.38% YoY.
Investors Risk Making a Classic Portfolio Mistake
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, suggests investors should abandon portfolios made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, a mix that has been a standard for six decades.
Asia: The Early Innings of Innovation?
Portfolio Manager Michael Oh, CFA, reviews what he seeks out in innovative companies and why he thinks Asia may be in the early innings of innovation in more than technology.
Time to Buy the Dip In Energy?
Oil prices continue to struggle as recession fears have curtailed the market is recent months.
Design Your Website to Appeal to Multiple Audiences
It is a challenge to design a website that addresses the needs and questions of multiple client types.
Soft Landing?
We wrote last week about the soft landing that markets now seem to expect.
October 2022 Market & Economic Outlook Report
The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.
Lessons from the Markets in 2022
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
The Punchbowl Is Gone
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.
Unfazed by Airline Grounding, Investors Look Ahead to Earnings
Investors don’t appear to have been fazed by the FAA mishap. Shares of U.S. domestic airlines finished Wednesday up more than 1% before advancing a further 4% on Thursday in response to positive earnings estimates.
From All-Weather to All-Terrain Investing for the Stormy Decade Ahead
This article explores how the addition of specific liquid alternative strategies produces an “All-Terrain” portfolio with the potential for improved long-term performance across a wider range of market environments.
The SEC Outsourcing Rule and Our Failure as Fiduciaries
The process by which advisors select a TAMP is the latest illustration of fiduciary failure, and the SEC has responded with ominous rulemaking that will have questionable value to our profession.
Summers Says Recession Still Looms, Fed Getting Closer to Done
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that the US economy is still facing a recession this year, despite encouraging news in recent weeks.
Not the Cool Kids
As we start the year 2023, we are reminded of the profound poetry from the band, Echosmith, in the song, “Cool Kids.” It can teach us about what it takes to succeed in long-duration common stock investing currently.
Components of the CPI: December
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Tax Season Gets a Gen Z Revamp on TikTok
Welcome to tax season, TikTok edition.
Electric Vehicles Look Poised for Slower Sales Growth This Year
Each year presents its own challenges, and 2023 is no exception, with economic uncertainty riding high, geopolitical tensions rising and the policy landscape shifting.
Equity Outlook: The Times They Are A-Changin’
In 2022, inflation and interest rates both rose substantially, creating the near-term potential for a recession.
Breaking the RTO Plateau
Workers and managers are in a tug-of-war over return to office policies.
Stocks Falling in Wake of Mixed Banking Results
U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.
Stocks Grappling With December Inflation Report
U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.
The Year in Review: Wealthspire Advisors 2022 Q4 Review
Throughout this year, Wealthspire Advisors’ Investment Team has spent significant time discussing inflation and the Federal Reserve and felt it was important to pivot towards the story in financial markets for 2022, which begins and ends with fixed income.
US Inflation Cools Again, Putting Fed on Track to Downshift
US inflation continued to slow in December, adding to evidence price pressures have peaked and putting the Federal Reserve on track to again slow the pace of interest-rate hikes.
Consumer Price Index: December Headline at 6.45%, Down from November
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 6.45%, down from 7.11% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 5.71%, down from 5.96% the previous month.
Banks' Revenue Bonanza Seen Under Threat From Looming US Recession
The market volatility and interest-rate hikes that gave US banks their biggest windfall last year may prove to be their biggest headache in 2023.
Balmy European Winter Helps Industrial Production
With winter not fully upon us, European industrial production has benefitted from lower energy prices.
Gundlach: Bonds are Much Cheaper than Stocks
The bond market is much cheaper than the stock market, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should abandon the traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation in favor of a 40/60 split.
Things Are Getting Sticky. Prices Always Have Been.
Although inflation appears to have peaked, historical data suggests that prices are unlikely to reverse themselves, which could lead to an extended period of wage inflation.
Gold Rallies on a Weaker Dollar
Gold prices have increased to start 2023 as the dollar index extends last Friday's losses.
Inflation's Path From Peak Is Next Big Question for US Economy
The question that obsessed financial markets last year was when and where US inflation would peak. The 2023 version will likely be how far, and how fast, it comes down.
The Warren Buffett Way to Profit From the Energy Crisis
When the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, triggering the largest-ever oil spill in the US, all eyes turned to BP Plc, the British company behind the drilling. But BP wasn’t alone in the project.
A Primer for Clients to Invest in Commodities
Commodities may seem like just another one of the bunch, but these products offer a unique way to invest your money in the market.
European Fixed-Income Outlook: Stay High Quality in 2023
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
International and Global Markets Commentary & Investment Outlook
An era of low inflation and low interest rates has ended.
Year of the Pause
Welcome to 2023. It’s Forecast Season on Wall Street, the time when everyone tells us what to expect for the new year. Do they really know? Of course not. Forecasters don’t know, investors know they don’t know, yet we all go through this exercise anyway.
Is It Time To Rethink The 60/40 Portfolio?
Investors who use a 60/40 portfolio had a rough year. In the past, putting 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds has often helped investors hedge against losses in either asset class. But 2022 had other ideas.
The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 30, 2022 close.
How To Differentiate Your Business in 2023
Engage in activities that position you as a trusted authority.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: December Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December saw a 223K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%. The Investing.com consensus was for 200K jobs gained.
Bloomberg Commodity Index Trends Downward to Start the Year
The March contract for the Bloomberg Commodity Index (ERH23) was down for the third consecutive day on Thursday. Since ending 2022 at 112.80, the contract is down 5.03 at 107.77.
The Fed’s “7% Solution” Won’t Work This Time
Just recently, James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, suggested the central bank might need to employ the “7% solution” to ensure the complete destruction of inflation.
Markets Look to Rebound From a Volatile 2022
The U.S. economy continually showed its resiliency through a challenging year.
The Dollar Will Weaken, But Not Yet
Over the long-term, the fundamentals of the dollar suggest a downward bias is likely.
November Trade Deficit at $61.5B
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. The headline number of -$61.5B was better than the -73.0B Investing.com forecast.
Byron Wien Sees Market Bottom by Mid-Year, Positive Real Rates
The US stock market will bottom by the middle of 2023 as the Federal Reserve tamps down inflation without causing anything worse than a “mild” economic recession, according to Byron Wien’s annual list of surprises.
Want to Succeed on Wall Street? Learn Poker, Not Economics
Perhaps the most famous trading experiment ever conducted was when commodities investor Richard Dennis bet his partner William Eckhardt in 1983 that he could train a group of amateurs – dubbed “the Turtles” -- to be successful futures traders.
Stocks Higher to Pare Early-Year Losses
U.S. equities are solidly higher in afternoon action, paring some of the losses that have plagued the start of 2023.
The R Year
2022 wasn’t the easiest of years to handle for investors.
ISM Manufacturing Index Continues Contraction in December
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for December. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 48.4, down 0.6 from the previous month and in contraction territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 48.5.
December S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Deteriorating Faster
The December S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ came in at 46.2, down 1.5 from the final November figure and in contraction territory for the second consecutive month. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Buffett’s Five Golden Rules for Advisor Marketing
Here are my five golden rules of marketing for advisors from Warren Buffett.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of December 30, 2022, the 10-year note was 336 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020