The yield on the 10-year note ended February 14, 2025 at 4.47%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.26% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
DeepSeek may be that catalyst, forcing investors and technologists alike to question long-held assumptions and reevaluate the competitive landscape in real time.
Nominal retail sales in January were down 0.88% month-over-month (MoM) and up 4.20% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 1.34% MoM and up 1.16% YoY.
’ll first summarize their projections and note what I think are some shockers. Then I’ll take a look at how accurate their past forecasts have been. Finally, I’ll conclude with what I’m changing in my own portfolio...
Markets always look their very best at the top - that's increasingly the case with gold as it nears $3,000 a troy ounce. It's behaving like a Veblen good, an item for which, contrary to the laws of economics, demand increases with price.
President Donald Trump ordered his administration to consider imposing reciprocal tariffs on numerous trading partners, raising the prospect of a wider campaign against a global system he complains is tilted against the US.
The January Employment Situation Report reaffirmed the resilience of the U.S. labor market, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 143,000 and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.0%.
2025 is beginning in much the same manner as 2024, with investors focused on whether the Chinese government is going to implement new stimulus measures.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the latest consumer price data show that while the central bank has made substantial progress toward taming inflation, there is still more work to do.
Elon Musk praised his upcoming Grok 3 chatbot as an AI model outperforming everything else that’s been released thus far, and said the world would get to see it in a matter of weeks.
US wholesale prices rose in January by more than forecast on higher food and energy costs, highlighting only limited progress on inflation ahead of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
The article introduces CC CAPE, a modified version of Shiller CAPE, which corrects index biases for improved forecasting. While both measure market valuations for long-term return forecasting, the CAPE Spread helps gauge sentiment for medium-term predictions.
Managers are cognizant of potential risks to portfolios, identifying dominant Chinese component manufacturers, North American automotive supply chains, and smaller cap industrial cyclicals as market segments worth monitoring.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance. The pie chart below breaks down the components of the CPI for Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates, seeking to raise pressure on the Federal Reserve as he moves to implement a second-term economic agenda high on tariffs and expanding tax breaks.
Inflation heated up for a fourth straight month in January. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 3.0% year-over-year, higher than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in higher than expected, rising to 3.3% year-over-year.
It’s not easy when someone doesn’t want to look at their own culpability in relationships. But you can only control what’s controllable, and we don’t control others, much as we endeavor to do so.
The employment report was uniformly strong except for one component: the average hours worked per week fell to the lowest level since the pandemic, which may be weather related.
As the sequel unfolds, particular industry sectors in affected countries are likely to be more impacted. Global Head of Credit Research Mike Talaga, Head of EMEA Credit Research James Maxwell, and Client Portfolio Manager Celia Soares discuss the implications for credit investors.
Tariff policies have been announced and then subsequently rescinded or delayed–but not yet resolved. They may still hold the potential for market volatility.
Gas prices jumped to their highest level in 3.5 months this week. As of February 10th, the price of regular and premium gas were up 5 and 6 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $72.32, down 1.1% from last week.
Gold endured a volatile few hours’ trading — rallying to a record, then paring gains — after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on US steel and aluminum imports, adding to uncertainty in global markets.
Oil smuggling isn’t easy, but it’s so enormously profitable that obstacles only slow it down. Sure, the authorities can make dealing illicit barrels a bit less financially rewarding; ultimately, however, the oil will flow.
President Donald Trump ordered a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, escalating his efforts to protect politically important US industries with levies hitting some of the country’s closest allies.
Tariff threats offer a glimpse of what is in store.
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
While Merton is one of the most brilliant financial economists who ever lived, high-level quantitative chops do not guarantee financial success.
Looking for an investment idea that’s paid off handsomely in commodities markets over the past six months? Try betting on the tropics.
Some allocators may focus their search efforts on corporate credit segments or simply a portfolio that can opportunistically trade across fixed income sectors.
Today we’ll talk about Trump, tariffs, cycles, and DOGE. Jumping right in…
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Tariffs seem to have become a staple of Americans’ dictionaries lately as the new administration uses this policy instrument to achieve objectives that are not directly tied to the reasons tariffs have been used in the past.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
The US Treasury on Wednesday maintained its guidance on keeping sales of longer-term debt unchanged well into 2025, despite newly installed Secretary Scott Bessent having criticized the issuance strategy of his predecessor before he was picked for the job.
Gold climbed to a fresh record high, as trade-war worries bolstered haven demand and there were continued signs of short-term tightness in the market.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
After this week’s FOMC decision to hold the fed funds rate unchanged, markets and analysts concluded that Federal Reserve members had changed their views on inflation.
The DeepSeek blip notwithstanding (our initial take on the news is here), January 2025 was a good month for financial markets. The S&P 500 was up a robust 2.7%, though Nasdaq lagged (largely due to DeepSeek, in our opinion) with “only” a 1.7% monthly return.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
This is not about China. I applaud the creativity of the DeepSeek developers and especially their ability to drive down costs. I am amazed they made it truly open-source and revealed everything.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Commerce Department, offered a detailed defense of tariffs in his confirmation hearing, the clearest signal yet from a cabinet pick that the new administration is prepared to impose the levies on allies and adversaries alike.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Next week we will have the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting decision on interest rates of the year, where Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.
I recently read three very different books which were published in the last three years, all of them speaking to the problems created by the neoliberal order that has been in the ascendancy since the late ’70s but has faltered of late. The solutions that these books offer are, respectively: tweaking; evolution; and revolution.
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
As we kick off 2025, the landscape is rich with competing narratives and evolving dynamics.
The world’s biggest stock market is heading for its best start for a new US president since Ronald Reagan was sworn in to power in 1985.
Raw data needs sophisticated infrastructure to drive AI innovation. Snowflake provides critical infrastructure provider for the AI age.
US equity markets rallied just enough to round out 2024 with all four quarters posting positive returns. The S&P 500® Index finished the fourth quarter up 2.41%, bringing the year’s total return to 25.02%.
Please join Dan Magnusson and Bob Minter from abrdn, as they discuss how the commodity asset class performed in 2024, current investment opportunities in the commodity space, and where broad commodities may fit within a diversified portfolio.
Commodities
Treasury Yields Snapshot: February 14, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 14, 2025 at 4.47%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.26% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
DeepSeek Breaks the AI Paradigm
DeepSeek may be that catalyst, forcing investors and technologists alike to question long-held assumptions and reevaluate the competitive landscape in real time.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Down 1.3% in January
Nominal retail sales in January were down 0.88% month-over-month (MoM) and up 4.20% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 1.34% MoM and up 1.16% YoY.
Examining Vanguard’s Forecasted Returns for the Decade Ahead
’ll first summarize their projections and note what I think are some shockers. Then I’ll take a look at how accurate their past forecasts have been. Finally, I’ll conclude with what I’m changing in my own portfolio...
Goldbug FOMO Is Setting Up the Market for a Fall
Markets always look their very best at the top - that's increasingly the case with gold as it nears $3,000 a troy ounce. It's behaving like a Veblen good, an item for which, contrary to the laws of economics, demand increases with price.
Trump Moves to Impose Reciprocal Tariffs as Soon as April
President Donald Trump ordered his administration to consider imposing reciprocal tariffs on numerous trading partners, raising the prospect of a wider campaign against a global system he complains is tilted against the US.
January Jobs Report: A Solid Labor Market, But Signs of Moderation
The January Employment Situation Report reaffirmed the resilience of the U.S. labor market, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 143,000 and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.0%.
AI Innovations and Trade Tariffs: The Outlook for China in 2025
2025 is beginning in much the same manner as 2024, with investors focused on whether the Chinese government is going to implement new stimulus measures.
Powell Says New Inflation Data Show Fed Has More Work to Do
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the latest consumer price data show that while the central bank has made substantial progress toward taming inflation, there is still more work to do.
Musk Says xAI’s ‘Scary Smart’ Next Model Chatbot Coming in Weeks
Elon Musk praised his upcoming Grok 3 chatbot as an AI model outperforming everything else that’s been released thus far, and said the world would get to see it in a matter of weeks.
US Wholesale Inflation Tops Estimates on Food, Energy Prices
US wholesale prices rose in January by more than forecast on higher food and energy costs, highlighting only limited progress on inflation ahead of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
Current Constituents CAPE
The article introduces CC CAPE, a modified version of Shiller CAPE, which corrects index biases for improved forecasting. While both measure market valuations for long-term return forecasting, the CAPE Spread helps gauge sentiment for medium-term predictions.
How Are Active Equity Managers Positioning Portfolios for Increased U.S. Import Tariffs?
Managers are cognizant of potential risks to portfolios, identifying dominant Chinese component manufacturers, North American automotive supply chains, and smaller cap industrial cyclicals as market segments worth monitoring.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: January 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance. The pie chart below breaks down the components of the CPI for Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
Trump Calls for Lower Interest Rates as Powell Heads to Hill
President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates, seeking to raise pressure on the Federal Reserve as he moves to implement a second-term economic agenda high on tariffs and expanding tax breaks.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Heats Up to 3.0% in January
Inflation heated up for a fourth straight month in January. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 3.0% year-over-year, higher than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in higher than expected, rising to 3.3% year-over-year.
Solving a Problem When Management Won’t
It’s not easy when someone doesn’t want to look at their own culpability in relationships. But you can only control what’s controllable, and we don’t control others, much as we endeavor to do so.
Strong Jobs Report, But Tariffs Take Focus
The employment report was uniformly strong except for one component: the average hours worked per week fell to the lowest level since the pandemic, which may be weather related.
Tariff Wars II: The Sequel Impacting Trade and Industry Sectors in Credit
As the sequel unfolds, particular industry sectors in affected countries are likely to be more impacted. Global Head of Credit Research Mike Talaga, Head of EMEA Credit Research James Maxwell, and Client Portfolio Manager Celia Soares discuss the implications for credit investors.
Safe Haven From the Trade War?
Tariff policies have been announced and then subsequently rescinded or delayed–but not yet resolved. They may still hold the potential for market volatility.
Gasoline Prices Jump to 3.5-Month High
Gas prices jumped to their highest level in 3.5 months this week. As of February 10th, the price of regular and premium gas were up 5 and 6 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $72.32, down 1.1% from last week.
Gold Hits Record in Volatile Session as Trump Fans Haven Demand
Gold endured a volatile few hours’ trading — rallying to a record, then paring gains — after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on US steel and aluminum imports, adding to uncertainty in global markets.
The Black Market for Oil Will Continue to Thrive
Oil smuggling isn’t easy, but it’s so enormously profitable that obstacles only slow it down. Sure, the authorities can make dealing illicit barrels a bit less financially rewarding; ultimately, however, the oil will flow.
Trump Sets 25% Steel, Aluminum Tariffs, Widening Trade Warbloo
President Donald Trump ordered a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, escalating his efforts to protect politically important US industries with levies hitting some of the country’s closest allies.
Twists and Turns of Tariffs
Tariff threats offer a glimpse of what is in store.
World Markets Watchlist: February 10, 2025
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
Here We Go Again: Merton Share and Why I Don’t Use Retirement Calculators
While Merton is one of the most brilliant financial economists who ever lived, high-level quantitative chops do not guarantee financial success.
The Hot Money in Commodities Is Betting on the Tropics
Looking for an investment idea that’s paid off handsomely in commodities markets over the past six months? Try betting on the tropics.
Three Reasons to Consider Dedicated Emerging Market Debt Exposure
Some allocators may focus their search efforts on corporate credit segments or simply a portfolio that can opportunistically trade across fixed income sectors.
Serious Side Effects
Today we’ll talk about Trump, tariffs, cycles, and DOGE. Jumping right in…
Could Trump’s Tariff Revenues Fund a New U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
A Historical Look at Tariffs
Tariffs seem to have become a staple of Americans’ dictionaries lately as the new administration uses this policy instrument to achieve objectives that are not directly tied to the reasons tariffs have been used in the past.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: January Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
US Job Growth Slowed in January After 2024 Downward Revision
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
Newsletter January 2025
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Potential Impact of Tariffs Weighing on Markets, Corporations
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Transportation ETFs: Tariffs Take the Wheel
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
Bessent Says Trump Wants Lower 10-Year Yields, Not Fed Cuts
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
Steady M&A Deals to Begin 2025, Disappointing IPOs So Far
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
Why a Firming in the CPI May be Closer Than You Think
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
What the U.S. Tariffs Mean for Investors
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: January 2025
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
Bessent’s Treasury Sticks With Yellen-Era Long-Term Debt Plan
The US Treasury on Wednesday maintained its guidance on keeping sales of longer-term debt unchanged well into 2025, despite newly installed Secretary Scott Bessent having criticized the issuance strategy of his predecessor before he was picked for the job.
Gold Hits Fresh Record on Haven Demand as Tightness Persists
Gold climbed to a fresh record high, as trade-war worries bolstered haven demand and there were continued signs of short-term tightness in the market.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.7% in Q4 2024
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Seventh Straight Month in January
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
S&P Global Services PMI: Weakest Expansion Since April
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
AI Mega Force Could Be Accelerating
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Fed Holds Steady: No News Is Good News
After this week’s FOMC decision to hold the fed funds rate unchanged, markets and analysts concluded that Federal Reserve members had changed their views on inflation.
QuantStreet February 2025 Letter: More of the Same
The DeepSeek blip notwithstanding (our initial take on the news is here), January 2025 was a good month for financial markets. The S&P 500 was up a robust 2.7%, though Nasdaq lagged (largely due to DeepSeek, in our opinion) with “only” a 1.7% monthly return.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
DeepSeek Is Just the Latest Hedge Fund Innovation
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
Northern Exposure
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
Two Measures of Inflation: December 2024
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Treasury Yields Long-Term Perspective: January 2025
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
US Oil Outpaces Global Price Gains as Tariffs Menace Supply
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
ISM Manufacturing Index Expands for First Time Since 2022
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Expansion to Start New Year
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
Why DeepSeek Is Bullish for the World
This is not about China. I applaud the creativity of the DeepSeek developers and especially their ability to drive down costs. I am amazed they made it truly open-source and revealed everything.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
China’s AI Breakthrough Sends NVIDIA Reeling and Sparks National Security Fears
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Quarterly Market Commentary – January 2025
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes January 2025 Up 2.70%
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Chicago PMI Contracts for 14th Straight Month
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Trading Q4 Earnings: Will Bulls Fly or Just Get Gored?
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Magnificent 7 to the Rescue!
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
Trump 2.0: The Deregulation Agenda – No New Rules?
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
Lutnick Says Trump’s Tariffs Will Restore US Economy and Respect
Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Commerce Department, offered a detailed defense of tariffs in his confirmation hearing, the clearest signal yet from a cabinet pick that the new administration is prepared to impose the levies on allies and adversaries alike.
The Opportunity Right in Front of Investors
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman Explains World’s First 100% Downside Protected Bitcoin ETF
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: ETF Plays on the Stargate Project
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Hits 18th Consecutive All-Time High in November
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
Durable Goods Orders: December 2024
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
Markets Resilient Amid Historic Week and Fed Meeting in Focus
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
The Price of Progress
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Pay Close Attention to the Fed Chairman's Press Conference
Next week we will have the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting decision on interest rates of the year, where Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.
The End of the Neoliberal Era
I recently read three very different books which were published in the last three years, all of them speaking to the problems created by the neoliberal order that has been in the ascendancy since the late ’70s but has faltered of late. The solutions that these books offer are, respectively: tweaking; evolution; and revolution.
Escaping Stock Market Double Hell
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
Arctic Resource Boom Pits U.S. Against Russia and China in the New “Red Cold War”
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
Navigating Earnings Season: Margins for Error
As we kick off 2025, the landscape is rich with competing narratives and evolving dynamics.
S&P 500 Sees Best Start for a President Since 1985
The world’s biggest stock market is heading for its best start for a new US president since Ronald Reagan was sworn in to power in 1985.
Data Is the New Oil: How Snowflake Is Building AI's Critical Infrastructure
Raw data needs sophisticated infrastructure to drive AI innovation. Snowflake provides critical infrastructure provider for the AI age.
Harvesting Tax Losses When Markets Keep Posting Positive Returns
US equity markets rallied just enough to round out 2024 with all four quarters posting positive returns. The S&P 500® Index finished the fourth quarter up 2.41%, bringing the year’s total return to 25.02%.
Commodities: The year that was, the year that could be
Please join Dan Magnusson and Bob Minter from abrdn, as they discuss how the commodity asset class performed in 2024, current investment opportunities in the commodity space, and where broad commodities may fit within a diversified portfolio.