Join us for an interactive webinar with abrdn as we discuss the impact world events are having on the commodities markets, and how investors can leverage this uncorrelated asset class to help minimize volatility within their portfolios. We’ll discuss the merits of commodities in today’s environment and as a long-term strategic allocation.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 28, 2022, at 3.20%, the 2-year note ended at 3.10%, and the 30-year at 3.30%.
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
Someone once said, “Better than being smart is knowing who is!”
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
If hydrogen is to become a clean fuel of the future, urgent technological solutions are needed to keep it in place and move it at will.
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
Gasoline consumption in the US probably peaked in the years before the pandemic.
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Tesla Inc. is taking steps to ramp up output at its factory in Shanghai, partly suspending manufacturing capabilities at various points through early August to upgrade production lines, according to people familiar with the matter.
The President today asked Congress for a gasoline tax holiday to alleviate the cost of gasoline and diesel in the country.
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Agricultural commodities fell, offering some reprieve to rampant food inflation, as traders weigh incoming data on harvests and looming recessions in some major economies.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to +0.01 in May from +0.40 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in May, and two categories deteriorated from April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.20 in May from +0.40 in April
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
Crypto meltdowns. Tech implosions. The biggest rate hike in decades.
Stocks struggled again this past week with the S&P 500 falling -5.79% for the week and the S&P 500 has now lost ground in 10 of the last 11 weeks, falling -19.16%, which is very unusual.
Oil is heading for the first weekly decline since April after a period of choppy trading as investors weigh the prospect of further monetary tightening from central banks to curb rampant inflation.
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
The US has become the world's oil barrel of last resort, single handedly keeping prices in the energy market from exploding even higher by selling a large chunk of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Since the start of 2019, investors have plowed more than $300 billion into environmental, social and governance (ESG)-themed exchange traded funds.
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.
Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina opens with one of the most famous lines in world literature: “All happy families are alike, but every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
Mexico was the best-performing Latin American market in 2021 and our recent trip reinforced the reasons to remain bullish.
The S&P 500 officially fell into bear market territory during the month of May, although a late month bounce allowed it to finish the month only slightly down from April. It is down about 2.5% thus far in June. The tone of the market has changed, and it doesn’t appear to be calming down anytime soon.
According to my guest today, Greg Taylor, when looking at the performance of the large-cap tech stocks, it was inevitable that the broader market would touch bear market levels. He is here to discuss the market environment, not just in equities, but across asset classes including gold and cryptocurrencies.
Month-over-month nominal sales in April were up 0.90% and up 8.19% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.57% and were down 0.04% YoY.
Gold fell after high producer prices exceeded market expectations, reinforcing concerns of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive policy stance to combat stubbornly high inflation.
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
As of June 13, the price of Regular and Premium were up 13 cents each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.43 and Georgia has the cheapest at $4.47. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 120.93 and is up 2.1% from last week.
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
There’s a fight brewing in the lithium market, after a controversial forecast from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts set off a backlash among some of the industry’s most prominent experts.
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
Oil extended losses for a third session as the prospect of further monetary tightening to combat surging US inflation sent global markets spiraling lower.
According to a recent survey, a majority of Republicans and a plurality of Democrats believe the US is in a recession. The question is how seriously to take their complaints.
Madonna was right. That iPhone on which you may be reading this article is far less important to society than the materials – like steel and plastic – that were used to build it.
Energy has been on quite a run.
The global trade in the cheapest foods is grinding to a halt.
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
Those who are familiar with my articles know that I see market crashes in stocks and bonds occurring in this decade, combined with serious inflation. Readers ask how I recommend protecting. This is it.
Stanley Druckenmiller has a warning for Wall Street: The sharp decline in the stock market isn’t over just yet.
Stocks modestly lower ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report.
Crude oil and energy equities have been on a tear for the last two years.
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
The ECB and the Fed both need to quickly normalize policy from the emergency settings adopted when the pandemic first hit.
The most recent change on the supply side of the global oil market has involved Saudi Arabia suddenly and dramatically regaining its swing-producer role.
Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.
Gold may be heading for another rally, with warnings over a global economic slowdown paving the way for a fresh push toward $2,000 an ounce.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies, Shailesh Kshatriya, and Director of Institutional Investment Solutions, Greg Coffey, discussed the recent PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings from China and the U.S.
U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -87.08B was better than the -89.5B Investing.com forecast.
This commentary has been updated to include Friday morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. May saw 390K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. The Investing.com consensus was for 325K jobs gained.
Welcome to the endless cycle of debate over whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of choice will be the much-needed push to jumpstart climate policy around the world. It splits neatly between so-called activists focused on the “should” or “ought” versus the often self-styled realists espousing “careful,” “balanced” views.
Reasons to worry about a recession are piling up: the Federal Reserve's inflation fight, a slowing housing market, warnings from retailers and venture capitalists and a smattering of layoff announcements.
Strong employment and spending will help the economy grow through current shocks.
New research quantifies the implicit cost that investors incur when index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500, are rebalanced. Those costs may be avoidable by adopting trading strategies that introduce the possibility of tracking error.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Due to stratospheric oil and gas prices, energy stocks have been the one bright spot in an otherwise dour market this year. Through the end of May, the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index gained an incredible 60%, compared to the S&P 500, which fell about 13%.
The chance that all the necessary pieces will line up that way? Somewhere between slim and none, and as my dad used to say, “Slim left town.” And while my memory isn’t perfect, I don’t believe any speaker at the conference believed in the possibility of a soft landing. And even if we get one, we have serious problems that predate this inflation. They haven’t gone anywhere.
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
Is long-term strategic investing out the window? To earn returns in today’s market, you need a team that will rethink your investment philosophy and strategy.
Some supply strains in the US are easing, two years after a jump in demand started emptying shelves, snarling shipping and sowing the seeds of soaring inflation.
One of the most difficult challenges in finance is how to price crypto assets. Bonds pay interest. Stocks pay dividends. What exactly do crypto assets pay?
It will cost more than the gross domestic product of the entire world to rewire the global economy to run on clean energy.
This commentary provides a look at what we covered in the latest Weekly Insights report. The Weekly Insights Report is part of our entry-level service: presenting some of the key findings from our institutional research service.
Virtual reality is not reality!
I’ve done what many people dream of doing in their lives, but I’m ill at ease.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for May. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 56.1, an increase of 0.7 from 55.4 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 54.5.
The May US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.0, down 2.2 from the final April figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Markets flailed in May, seeking certainty amid conflicting signals.
Through rising real yields, a slowing economy and poor seasonality, short-term headwinds remain for gold and precious metals.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 60.3 in May from 56.4 in April, which is still in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
They are creations of easy credit, beneficiaries of central bank largesse. And now that the era of unconventional monetary policy is over, they’re facing a challenge like never before.
Treasuries extended their slump in New York, driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up by the most in more than three weeks, as renewed inflation concerns and economic data supported expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes in coming months.
Commodities
Today’s Volatility and Where Commodities Fit in a Portfolio
Join us for an interactive webinar with abrdn as we discuss the impact world events are having on the commodities markets, and how investors can leverage this uncorrelated asset class to help minimize volatility within their portfolios. We’ll discuss the merits of commodities in today’s environment and as a long-term strategic allocation.
Treasury Snapshot: 2-10 Spread at 0.1%
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 28, 2022, at 3.20%, the 2-year note ended at 3.10%, and the 30-year at 3.30%.
More “Stagflation-Lite”, Moderately Positive On Equities Ex Europe, Still Negative On Global Bonds
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
3 Charts Showing Optimism For The Global Shipping Industry
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
Buffett, Jones and Hamm: An Oil Wisdom Trifecta
Someone once said, “Better than being smart is knowing who is!”
April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Up 20% YoY
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Bill Gates-Led Fund Backs Startup With Cheaper Way to Move Hydrogen
If hydrogen is to become a clean fuel of the future, urgent technological solutions are needed to keep it in place and move it at will.
Oil Price Reversions – The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
A Deep Analytic Perspective of the 2022 Market Correction
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
The Decline of Fossil Fuels Is Going to Be Expensive
Gasoline consumption in the US probably peaked in the years before the pandemic.
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Oil Rallies After a Reading on Inflation Expectations Eased
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
Global Commodity Shock Enters Next Phase With Recession Test
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Stocks Adding to Weekly Gains
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
Stocks Sniffing A Bear Market Rally
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
Oil Is in Another Bear Market - and for Good Reason
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Tesla Said Readying Its China Factory for Even Greater Volumes
Tesla Inc. is taking steps to ramp up output at its factory in Shanghai, partly suspending manufacturing capabilities at various points through early August to upgrade production lines, according to people familiar with the matter.
Cracking and Pivoting
The President today asked Congress for a gasoline tax holiday to alleviate the cost of gasoline and diesel in the country.
Reaching for Resilience
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
Recession Calls Grow; Mnuchin on Inflation Threat: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
Crude Oil Buckles as Recession Angst Rattles Commodity Investors
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Global Food Inflation Gets Reprieve as Wheat and Oilseeds Tumble
Agricultural commodities fell, offering some reprieve to rampant food inflation, as traders weigh incoming data on harvests and looming recessions in some major economies.
Recession Warnings Multiply; Exxon Signs Gas Deal: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
Chicago Fed: "Index suggests economic growth declined in May"
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to +0.01 in May from +0.40 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in May, and two categories deteriorated from April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.20 in May from +0.40 in April
“Economic Hurricane” – Hyperbole Or Real Possibility?
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
Why Insiders Are Bullish When Nobody Else Is
Crypto meltdowns. Tech implosions. The biggest rate hike in decades.
DMA Table Still Negative. But Erlanger Options Rank Showing Extreme Short Selling Indicating A Bounce In The Offing
Stocks struggled again this past week with the S&P 500 falling -5.79% for the week and the S&P 500 has now lost ground in 10 of the last 11 weeks, falling -19.16%, which is very unusual.
Oil Set for Weekly Loss as Traders Weigh Monetary Tightening
Oil is heading for the first weekly decline since April after a period of choppy trading as investors weigh the prospect of further monetary tightening from central banks to curb rampant inflation.
Gold Has Been One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022 (So Far)
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
The US Is Depleting Its Strategic Petroleum Reserve Faster Than It Looks
The US has become the world's oil barrel of last resort, single handedly keeping prices in the energy market from exploding even higher by selling a large chunk of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
ESG Investment Cools as the Sector’s Notoriety Grows
Since the start of 2019, investors have plowed more than $300 billion into environmental, social and governance (ESG)-themed exchange traded funds.
The Bear Is Here
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.
Everything You Wanted To Know About Bear Markets
Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina opens with one of the most famous lines in world literature: “All happy families are alike, but every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”
Crypto Market Outlook: Risk-Off
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
Closer Look: Postcard from Mexico
Mexico was the best-performing Latin American market in 2021 and our recent trip reinforced the reasons to remain bullish.
The Summer of Bear Markets
The S&P 500 officially fell into bear market territory during the month of May, although a late month bounce allowed it to finish the month only slightly down from April. It is down about 2.5% thus far in June. The tone of the market has changed, and it doesn’t appear to be calming down anytime soon.
According to my guest today, Greg Taylor, when looking at the performance of the large-cap tech stocks, it was inevitable that the broader market would touch bear market levels. He is here to discuss the market environment, not just in equities, but across asset classes including gold and cryptocurrencies.
The Big Four: May Real Retail Sales Down 1.2%
Month-over-month nominal sales in April were up 0.90% and up 8.19% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.57% and were down 0.04% YoY.
Gold Drops as Traders Brace for Fed Hike Amid High US Inflation
Gold fell after high producer prices exceeded market expectations, reinforcing concerns of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive policy stance to combat stubbornly high inflation.
Signs Point to Rising Recession Risk
Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: WTIC at $120
As of June 13, the price of Regular and Premium were up 13 cents each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.43 and Georgia has the cheapest at $4.47. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 120.93 and is up 2.1% from last week.
Inflation Risk: Persistent or Transitory is the Wrong Question
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
The Fed Has No Choice But to Let This Tantrum Rip
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
Red-Hot Lithium Boom Pits Wall Street Against the Wonks
There’s a fight brewing in the lithium market, after a controversial forecast from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts set off a backlash among some of the industry’s most prominent experts.
Global Stock Rout Prompts Call for Back-to-Basics Investing
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
Oil Extends Losses Near $118 as Global Market Selloff Deepens
Oil extended losses for a third session as the prospect of further monetary tightening to combat surging US inflation sent global markets spiraling lower.
Politics Have Distorted Americans’ Views of the Economy
According to a recent survey, a majority of Republicans and a plurality of Democrats believe the US is in a recession. The question is how seriously to take their complaints.
We’re Living in a Material World
Madonna was right. That iPhone on which you may be reading this article is far less important to society than the materials – like steel and plastic – that were used to build it.
I’m Buying Another Dirt-Cheap Energy Stock
Energy has been on quite a run.
It’s Time to Get Biofuels Out of Your Gas Tank
The global trade in the cheapest foods is grinding to a halt.
Are We Headed for Recession? Gold and Bitcoin Could Offer Some Cover
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
A Trillion Here, a Trillion There…
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
How I Protect Against the Coming Market Crash
Those who are familiar with my articles know that I see market crashes in stocks and bonds occurring in this decade, combined with serious inflation. Readers ask how I recommend protecting. This is it.
Druckenmiller Warns ‘Bear Market Has a Ways to Run’ as Fed Hikes Rates
Stanley Druckenmiller has a warning for Wall Street: The sharp decline in the stock market isn’t over just yet.
Today's Options Market Update
Stocks modestly lower ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report.
Divergences in the Energy Patch
Crude oil and energy equities have been on a tear for the last two years.
Gundlach: Oil Could Hit $150 This Summer
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
Markets Primed To Be Hawkish On Rates
The ECB and the Fed both need to quickly normalize policy from the emergency settings adopted when the pandemic first hit.
Saudi Arabia Is Swinging Again – But for How Long?
The most recent change on the supply side of the global oil market has involved Saudi Arabia suddenly and dramatically regaining its swing-producer role.
Is Gold the Answer?
Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.
Gold’s Haven Appeal Burnished by Drumbeat of Growth Warnings
Gold may be heading for another rally, with warnings over a global economic slowdown paving the way for a fresh push toward $2,000 an ounce.
Bank Of Canada Lifts Rates By 50 Basis Points Again. Is an Even Steeper Increase in the Cards?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies, Shailesh Kshatriya, and Director of Institutional Investment Solutions, Greg Coffey, discussed the recent PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings from China and the U.S.
Schwab Market Update: Stocks Lower as Volatility Continues
U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.
April Trade Deficit at $87.07B, Better Than Forecast
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -87.08B was better than the -89.5B Investing.com forecast.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: May Employment
This commentary has been updated to include Friday morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. May saw 390K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. The Investing.com consensus was for 325K jobs gained.
What a Stock-Price Divergence Reveals About Climate Policy and Risk
Welcome to the endless cycle of debate over whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of choice will be the much-needed push to jumpstart climate policy around the world. It splits neatly between so-called activists focused on the “should” or “ought” versus the often self-styled realists espousing “careful,” “balanced” views.
Consumers Are Losers in a Booming Industrial Economy
Reasons to worry about a recession are piling up: the Federal Reserve's inflation fight, a slowing housing market, warnings from retailers and venture capitalists and a smattering of layoff announcements.
Recession Talk Is Exaggerated
Strong employment and spending will help the economy grow through current shocks.
The Problems with Market-Cap Weighted Index Funds
New research quantifies the implicit cost that investors incur when index funds, such as those tracking the S&P 500, are rebalanced. Those costs may be avoidable by adopting trading strategies that introduce the possibility of tracking error.
The Upside to Record High Gas Prices
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Due to stratospheric oil and gas prices, energy stocks have been the one bright spot in an otherwise dour market this year. Through the end of May, the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index gained an incredible 60%, compared to the S&P 500, which fell about 13%.
No Soft Landings
The chance that all the necessary pieces will line up that way? Somewhere between slim and none, and as my dad used to say, “Slim left town.” And while my memory isn’t perfect, I don’t believe any speaker at the conference believed in the possibility of a soft landing. And even if we get one, we have serious problems that predate this inflation. They haven’t gone anywhere.
FOMC Inflation Test Coming
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
Staying the Course No Longer Works?
Is long-term strategic investing out the window? To earn returns in today’s market, you need a team that will rethink your investment philosophy and strategy.
Supply-Chain Relief Sparks Feud Over Softer US Economy
Some supply strains in the US are easing, two years after a jump in demand started emptying shelves, snarling shipping and sowing the seeds of soaring inflation.
Crypto’s Value Comes From Crypto’s Volatility
One of the most difficult challenges in finance is how to price crypto assets. Bonds pay interest. Stocks pay dividends. What exactly do crypto assets pay?
How to Push Wall Street to Ditch Fossil Fuels for Clean Energy
It will cost more than the gross domestic product of the entire world to rewire the global economy to run on clean energy.
Chart of the Week - Green Boom & Bust
This commentary provides a look at what we covered in the latest Weekly Insights report. The Weekly Insights Report is part of our entry-level service: presenting some of the key findings from our institutional research service.
Stock Market Metaverse
Virtual reality is not reality!
How to Navigate the Crossroads of Success
I’ve done what many people dream of doing in their lives, but I’m ill at ease.
May ISM Manufacturing Index: Demand explanded, consumption mixed,
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for May. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 56.1, an increase of 0.7 from 55.4 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 54.5.
May Markit Manufacturing: Growth Slows
The May US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.0, down 2.2 from the final April figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Markets Seek Direction, Hope For Soft Landing
Markets flailed in May, seeking certainty amid conflicting signals.
Short-Term Headwinds Abound For Gold
Through rising real yields, a slowing economy and poor seasonality, short-term headwinds remain for gold and precious metals.
Chicago PMI Increases in May
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 60.3 in May from 56.4 in April, which is still in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
Zombie Firms Face Slow Death in US as Era of Easy Credit Ends
They are creations of easy credit, beneficiaries of central bank largesse. And now that the era of unconventional monetary policy is over, they’re facing a challenge like never before.
Treasuries Slide as Inflation Concerns Keep Rate-Hike Bets Alive
Treasuries extended their slump in New York, driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up by the most in more than three weeks, as renewed inflation concerns and economic data supported expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes in coming months.