Strategists are mapping out their best trade ideas after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set the stage for raising interest rates to combat the highest inflation since 1982.
Last year, shareholder activists teamed up with environmental and socially-minded investors in record numbers. The most successful campaign was arguably hedge fund Engine No. 1’s push to add three climate-conscious directors to the board of fossil-fuel behemoth Exxon Mobil Corp. Other notable initiatives included investor Dan Loeb’s attempt to break up Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Bluebell Capital Partners’s push for a management shakeup at GlaxoSmithKline Plc.
Energy sector leaders quickly shifted from the “green” economy in 2020 to the “brown” economy in 2021.
Spurred by rate hike concerns, geopolitical tensions and more, markets saw a 10% correction intra-day today – find out how that impacts our outlook.
Meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, the broader stock market: All have tumbled with astonishing speed this year, and few strategists think the pain will end here.
Bitcoin miners are facing a crucial test in the wake of the token’s 50% plunge from an all-time high. While many mining operations made a handsome profit during Bitcoin’s runup last year, the recent decline could punish those with less efficient operations.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday following the biggest one-day tumble this year, with traders refocusing on the outlook for energy demand and shaking off broader weakness in financial markets.
On April 12, 2019, Chevron (CVX) and its CEO, Mike Wirth, offered $33 billion dollars to buy the common shares of Anadarko Petroleum.
A portfolio’s return is driven by its investment strategy—a set of decisions that governs allocation and timing of capital among the portfolio’s positions.
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.18% increase month over month which is cut to 0.74% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 18.8% YoY increase.
As of January 24, the price of Regular and Premium were up two and one cent(s) each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.63 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.95. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 83.31 and is down 1.8% from last week.
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.15 in December from +0.44 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, and all four categories deteriorated from November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.33 in December from +0.40 in November.
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 21, 2022, at 1.75%, the 2-year note ended at 1.01%, and the 30-year at 2.07%.
In his renomination hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the key to maximum sustainable employment and financial stability was keeping inflation low.
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise.
The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.
All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend.
New U.S. home construction unexpectedly strengthened in December to the fastest pace in nine months, led by apartment projects and suggesting builders found some success navigating shortages of materials and labor.
There are three pillars of investing for us at Smead Capital Management.
The industry has been slammed by a combination of concerns about higher U.S. interest rates, a probable reduction in solar-system subsidies for California homeowners, the broader stock market rotation out of high-growth technology companies and the obstruction of President Joe Biden’s stalled “Build Back Better” agenda by 50 Republicans and two Democrats, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 31, 2021 close.
This Monday would’ve been Muhammed Ali’s 80th birthday!
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
What insights can we glean beyond last year’s impressive 28% return? How did it compare it to global equities? I will show you some of the winners and losers, and finish with a few observations on the VIX.
Last year was a good year for stocks, but not bonds. The post-2008 recovery has been spectacular, one of the best 13-year U.S. stock markets. I provide details for the entire 96 years as well as five-year and 10-year sub-periods
In 1837, as in 2022, there was general certainty that prices were determined by the money supply – the quantity of legal tender circulating in the economy.
Few inventions have touched so many lives as the container.
Month-over-month nominal sales in December were down 1.91% and up 16.95% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 2.37% and were up 9.17% YoY.
As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.
Loomis Sayles' Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
The year ended on a highly upbeat tone for investors as equities rose to new heights against a backdrop of inflation and a prolonged pandemic
Oil climbed after two major agencies indicated that markets may be tighter than previously forecast and a U.S. government report showed crude inventories plummeted.
Inflation is rising rapidly, not an unexpected outcome given governments’ pandemic policy response of ballooning deficits and soaring government debt.
Monetary policy has driven U.S. stock prices to excessive valuations, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. But they remain cheap relative to bonds.
The global macro environment is ripe for EM assets outperformance as a combination of stronger growth in China, the end of exceptionalism in the US and less uncertainty on US interest rates, lead to a strong backdrop for EM assets.
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.
Things are about to get worse -- but after that, they should steadily get better. That’s roughly how economists envisage the path of U.S. inflation in the year ahead.
Covid-19 flare-ups, diminished policy support, and lingering supply-chain bottlenecks will see the global economic recovery cool more than previously estimated in 2022, after last year’s expansion clocked the fastest post-recession pace in eight decades, the World Bank said.
Rob Gough, who stars opposite Bruce Willis in “American Siege,” is launching the Strategy Shares Halt Climate Change ETF with David Miller, chief investment officer at Strategy Shares, who he knows through his past as a serial entrepreneur and investor.
Long before supply chain issues and soaring consumer prices made the headlines, I warned readers that massive monetary expansion made persistent inflation inevitable.
January market trends historically set the direction for the full year per his title “As January Goes”. Well, so far, not so good!
Ask yourself these questions when seeking a trust partner who not only is committed to a partnership service model, but can also deliver.
Twenty-two years of tradition dictate I begin the new year by forecasting what lies ahead.
Every year around this time, we update our always-popular Periodic Table of Commodities Returns.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December's 199K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 141K more jobs than previously reported. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%. The Investing.com consensus was for 400K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%.
Bitcoin’s getting a drubbing this week as the Federal Reserve readies a removal of stimulus, but bulls are feeling as emboldened as ever.
For emerging-market debt (EMD), 2022 is shaping up to be a contest of conflicting forces.
With both the pandemic and inflation proving longer lasting than many had anticipated, what does that mean for central bank policy in the months ahead?
Every year has plenty of lessons when looking backward in December.
India reported spending a record $55.7 billion on gold imports last year.
If you have read the Absolute Return Letter for years, you will be aware that the January letter always stands out from the others.
Not much has changed in regards to my economic growth outlook going forward since my most recent growth cycle update.
It’s official. For the first time since the unveiling of the Paris climate agreement in 2015, banks earned more fees arranging green-related bond sales and loans than they did helping fossil-fuel companies raise money in the debt markets.
Looking at oil and gas stocks this year? Think small and Canadian, at least according to the world’s leading energy fund manager.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -80.17B was worse than the -77.1B Investing.com forecast.
Global central banks are set to spend 2022 diverging, as some take on the menace of inflation and others stay focused on boosting economic growth.
Cotton prices climbed back near 10-year highs in New York on bets that strong demand will keep supplies constrained. Arabica coffee surged on sinking Brazilian exports.
Gold rebounded as the dollar pared gains and a U.S. manufacturing gauge fell short of economists’ expectations.
Most professionals who employ our strategy are wide-asset allocators
As of December 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 100 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
What can investors expect this year? Above-trend economic growth, at least two interest rate hikes and continued earnings strength among technology stocks, says Raymond James CIO Larry Adam.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for December. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 58.7, a decrease of 2.4 from 61.1 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 60.0.
The December US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.7, down 0.6 from the final November figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
A change in fundamentals could make international bonds more attractive.
In 2021, readers of the Investor Alert and Frank Talk were most interested in stories on gold mining, precious metals, natural resources and emerging markets (no surprise). But there was also interest in macroeconomic topics (inflation, mostly) as well as Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 63.1 in December from 61.8 in November, which is still in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
Although major economies and markets fared well in 2021 despite all of the uncertainties surrounding new variants of the coronavirus, 2022 will bring new challenges. In addition to central banks shifting toward policy normalization, geopolitical and systemic risks are multiplying.
The reason that few predicted Soviet collapse was that the Soviet Union outwardly appeared to be a mighty military power with an extensive security apparatus. Few observers understood just how little legitimacy the system possessed; that it was eaten away on the inside by the rot of corruption, by the loss of faith in ideology, by the dismal standards of living, and, lastly, by elite in-fighting.
We can phase out fossil fuels like coal and natural gas, but we can’t phase out the metals and minerals necessary to build additional renewable energy projects.
Despite a drop in clean-energy stocks and intensifying concerns about widespread greenwashing, the market for investment products sold as being ESG-related had another record year by most yardsticks.
The year 2021 will be remembered as one in which markets tumbled down a rabbit hole and entered financial wonderland: A once-elite undertaking became more populist, tribal, anarchic and often downright bizarre.
Despite the strong year for stocks in 2021, markets have confidently priced in some negative trends gathering more momentum in 2022 which may help markets, should trends reverse.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in November rose 0.36% and is up 7.2% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was down 0.25%. The real number is up 1.4% year-over-year.
The S&P 500 will probably end next year with a gain, while yields on 10-year Treasuries and the price of oil will climb as well. That’s according to nearly 900 Bloomberg Terminal clients who responded to a survey conducted by our Markets Live blog in the first two weeks of December.
Oil climbed with equities as traders resumed buying risk assets following a two-day rout.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Rick Rieder and team identify 11 themes that could drive returns in 2022, as the greatest monetary experiment since the advent of flat currency enters its next phase.
The semiconductor shortage and its impact on everything from autos to smartphone production has been much in the news. The shortage has been a boon for semiconductor stock prices. But it likely will resolve itself in the coming months—or years, depending on whom you talk to—raising the specter of a bust.
For most Americans under the age of 50, inflation has never been much of an issue. Yes, prices rose a little every year but that was considered normal. Price increases of 1-2% a year for most goods and services were to be expected.
Capitalism’s death warrant was signed on March 19, 1968. That is when President Lyndon Johnson eliminated the requirement that the Federal Reserve back the U.S. dollar with gold reserves.
COVID-19 variants may come and go, but Senior Commodities Analyst Saurabh Lele thinks investors should plan for a longer-term scenario: a prolonged transition from pandemic to endemic conditions.
CIO Robert Horrocks, PhD, sees fascinating and surprising investment opportunities arising in the emerging markets and China next year. Fed actions to manage inflation and the ongoing challenges of the pandemic will be important factors but the performance of markets may ultimately depend on the success of well-managed companies in key sectors.
Successful investors must answer three questions: Will we have serious inflation? Will interest rates increase? Will stock prices fall?
From 30,000 feet, the COVID lockdown and re-opening played out pretty much like we thought.
New research shows that companies that engender high employee satisfaction are rewarded with higher stock prices and investor returns.
It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year. I have also included some novels and books of general interest. Here is my list of winners and losers.
The dollar is on the rise, and with it comes underappreciated consequences.
The metaverse is part of the next iteration of the internet some are calling Web 3.0—and it promises to upend everything as we know it.
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee accelerated the reduction (“tapering”) of its monthly asset purchases (now expected to end in March rather than June). The policy statement indicated that “job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined substantially.”
Commodities
Value Stocks, U.S. Dollar Among Top Trades After Hawkish Fed
Strategists are mapping out their best trade ideas after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set the stage for raising interest rates to combat the highest inflation since 1982.
Climate Activists Poised to See Big Gains in 2022
Last year, shareholder activists teamed up with environmental and socially-minded investors in record numbers. The most successful campaign was arguably hedge fund Engine No. 1’s push to add three climate-conscious directors to the board of fossil-fuel behemoth Exxon Mobil Corp. Other notable initiatives included investor Dan Loeb’s attempt to break up Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Bluebell Capital Partners’s push for a management shakeup at GlaxoSmithKline Plc.
Investing In Energy Transition: Gray Area Between Green And Brown Economies
Energy sector leaders quickly shifted from the “green” economy in 2020 to the “brown” economy in 2021.
Investment Strategy Commentary: Market Pullback
Spurred by rate hike concerns, geopolitical tensions and more, markets saw a 10% correction intra-day today – find out how that impacts our outlook.
Market Crash Hands Defeat to Traders Who Warred With Wall Street
Meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, the broader stock market: All have tumbled with astonishing speed this year, and few strategists think the pain will end here.
Bitcoin’s Price Tumble Tests Resilience of Crypto Miners
Bitcoin miners are facing a crucial test in the wake of the token’s 50% plunge from an all-time high. While many mining operations made a handsome profit during Bitcoin’s runup last year, the recent decline could punish those with less efficient operations.
Oil Shakes Off Broader Market Weakness to Rise on Robust Demand
Oil prices rose on Tuesday following the biggest one-day tumble this year, with traders refocusing on the outlook for energy demand and shaking off broader weakness in financial markets.
Occidental Petroleum’s Wirth
On April 12, 2019, Chevron (CVX) and its CEO, Mike Wirth, offered $33 billion dollars to buy the common shares of Anadarko Petroleum.
ESG Is a Preference, Not a Strategy
A portfolio’s return is driven by its investment strategy—a set of decisions that governs allocation and timing of capital among the portfolio’s positions.
November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Index up 18.8% YoY
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.18% increase month over month which is cut to 0.74% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 18.8% YoY increase.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: WTIC Down 1.8%
As of January 24, the price of Regular and Premium were up two and one cent(s) each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.63 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.95. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 83.31 and is down 1.8% from last week.
Chicago Fed: "Index suggests economic growth declined in December"
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.15 in December from +0.44 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, and all four categories deteriorated from November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.33 in December from +0.40 in November.
The Shipping Industry Has Never Been So Profitable as It Is Now
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
Treasury Snapshot: 10-Year Note at 1.75%
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 21, 2022, at 1.75%, the 2-year note ended at 1.01%, and the 30-year at 2.07%.
Weekly Market Snapshot
In his renomination hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the key to maximum sustainable employment and financial stability was keeping inflation low.
The WisdomTree Q1 2022 Economic and Market Outlook in 10 Charts or Less
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise.
Bolstering Asset Allocation Defenses Against COVID-19
The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.
Let The Wild Rumpus Begin
All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend.
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Unexpectedly on Multifamily Building
New U.S. home construction unexpectedly strengthened in December to the fastest pace in nine months, led by apartment projects and suggesting builders found some success navigating shortages of materials and labor.
Outlook 2022: Polar Opposites
There are three pillars of investing for us at Smead Capital Management.
Battered Clean Energy Stocks May Soon Recover
The industry has been slammed by a combination of concerns about higher U.S. interest rates, a probable reduction in solar-system subsidies for California homeowners, the broader stock market rotation out of high-growth technology companies and the obstruction of President Joe Biden’s stalled “Build Back Better” agenda by 50 Republicans and two Democrats, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 31, 2021 close.
Weekly Investment Strategy
This Monday would’ve been Muhammed Ali’s 80th birthday!
Total Return Outlook: We Have Liftoff!
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
Deep Analytic Market Insights for 2021
What insights can we glean beyond last year’s impressive 28% return? How did it compare it to global equities? I will show you some of the winners and losers, and finish with a few observations on the VIX.
Nine Charts Summarizing the 96-Year Capital Markets History
Last year was a good year for stocks, but not bonds. The post-2008 recovery has been spectacular, one of the best 13-year U.S. stock markets. I provide details for the entire 96 years as well as five-year and 10-year sub-periods
Andrew Jackson Shortens the Credit Chain
In 1837, as in 2022, there was general certainty that prices were determined by the money supply – the quantity of legal tender circulating in the economy.
Consider the Humble Shipping Container
Few inventions have touched so many lives as the container.
The Big Four: December Real Retail Sales Down 2.4%
Month-over-month nominal sales in December were down 1.91% and up 16.95% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 2.37% and were up 9.17% YoY.
Strategic Income Outlook: One Heck of a Year
As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.
2022 Emerging Markets Debt Outlook: Views on Fundamentals, EM Asia and Opportunities
Loomis Sayles' Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
Q4 2021: “Tracking the Recovery: Inflationary Pressure a Symptom Not the Cause”
The year ended on a highly upbeat tone for investors as equities rose to new heights against a backdrop of inflation and a prolonged pandemic
Oil Gains as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Drop to Lowest Since 2018
Oil climbed after two major agencies indicated that markets may be tighter than previously forecast and a U.S. government report showed crude inventories plummeted.
Inflation Is Here! What Now?
Inflation is rising rapidly, not an unexpected outcome given governments’ pandemic policy response of ballooning deficits and soaring government debt.
Gundlach’s 2022 Forecast: Equities are Expensive but Cheap Relative to Bonds
Monetary policy has driven U.S. stock prices to excessive valuations, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. But they remain cheap relative to bonds.
Four Mega-Trends Shaping the 2022 Outlook and Beyond
The global macro environment is ripe for EM assets outperformance as a combination of stronger growth in China, the end of exceptionalism in the US and less uncertainty on US interest rates, lead to a strong backdrop for EM assets.
Investing in a Fast‑Moving Cycle
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.
The Clashing Forces That Will Drive U.S. Inflation in 2022
Things are about to get worse -- but after that, they should steadily get better. That’s roughly how economists envisage the path of U.S. inflation in the year ahead.
World Bank Cuts Global Growth Forecast on Virus Flare-Ups
Covid-19 flare-ups, diminished policy support, and lingering supply-chain bottlenecks will see the global economic recovery cool more than previously estimated in 2022, after last year’s expansion clocked the fastest post-recession pace in eight decades, the World Bank said.
A Bad Guy in a Bruce Willis Movie Is the Latest to Launch an ESG ETF
Rob Gough, who stars opposite Bruce Willis in “American Siege,” is launching the Strategy Shares Halt Climate Change ETF with David Miller, chief investment officer at Strategy Shares, who he knows through his past as a serial entrepreneur and investor.
US Growth Has Peaked Inflation Will Persist
Long before supply chain issues and soaring consumer prices made the headlines, I warned readers that massive monetary expansion made persistent inflation inevitable.
As January Goes
January market trends historically set the direction for the full year per his title “As January Goes”. Well, so far, not so good!
Selecting an “Advisor Friendly” Trust Company – What Matters Most
Ask yourself these questions when seeking a trust partner who not only is committed to a partnership service model, but can also deliver.
A Path-Dependent Year—WWJD?
Twenty-two years of tradition dictate I begin the new year by forecasting what lies ahead.
Commodities Notched Their Best Year Since 2009, Despite Precious Metals Weakness
Every year around this time, we update our always-popular Periodic Table of Commodities Returns.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: December Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December's 199K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 141K more jobs than previously reported. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%. The Investing.com consensus was for 400K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%.
Bitcoin-at-$100,000 Calls Become Uncomfortable After Pullback
Bitcoin’s getting a drubbing this week as the Federal Reserve readies a removal of stimulus, but bulls are feeling as emboldened as ever.
Emerging-Market Debt Outlook: Mixed Conditions in 2022
For emerging-market debt (EMD), 2022 is shaping up to be a contest of conflicting forces.
K2 Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook: First Quarter 2022
With both the pandemic and inflation proving longer lasting than many had anticipated, what does that mean for central bank policy in the months ahead?
To Infinity and Beyond – and the Usual New Year Review Stuff
Every year has plenty of lessons when looking backward in December.
The Great Gold Love Trade Is Alive And Well, As India Buys A Record Amount
India reported spending a record $55.7 billion on gold imports last year.
The Reincarnation of Fossil Fuels?
If you have read the Absolute Return Letter for years, you will be aware that the January letter always stands out from the others.
Growth Cycle Outlook: 2022 Will Not be 2021
Not much has changed in regards to my economic growth outlook going forward since my most recent growth cycle update.
Bank Fees for Green Debt Surpass Fossil-Fuel Financing
It’s official. For the first time since the unveiling of the Paris climate agreement in 2015, banks earned more fees arranging green-related bond sales and loans than they did helping fossil-fuel companies raise money in the debt markets.
Stick With Canada in 2022, Top-Performing Energy Investor Says
Looking at oil and gas stocks this year? Think small and Canadian, at least according to the world’s leading energy fund manager.
November Trade Deficit at $80.2B, Worse Than Forecast
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -80.17B was worse than the -77.1B Investing.com forecast.
Inflation Menace vs Pandemic Recovery: Central Bank Guide for 2022
Global central banks are set to spend 2022 diverging, as some take on the menace of inflation and others stay focused on boosting economic growth.
Hedge Funds Buy Up Cotton, Driving Futures Near Decade Highs
Cotton prices climbed back near 10-year highs in New York on bets that strong demand will keep supplies constrained. Arabica coffee surged on sinking Brazilian exports.
Spot Gold Rises as Dollar Erases Gains, U.S. Factory Gauge Slips
Gold rebounded as the dollar pared gains and a U.S. manufacturing gauge fell short of economists’ expectations.
True Religion in Value
Most professionals who employ our strategy are wide-asset allocators
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of December 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 100 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
10 Themes That Will Affect Your 2022 Investing
What can investors expect this year? Above-trend economic growth, at least two interest rate hikes and continued earnings strength among technology stocks, says Raymond James CIO Larry Adam.
December ISM Manufacturing Index: Slight Improvement in Labor Resources & Supplier Delivery
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for December. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 58.7, a decrease of 2.4 from 61.1 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 60.0.
December Markit Manufacturing: Production Growth Constrained
The December US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.7, down 0.6 from the final November figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
2022 International Bonds Outlook: Neutral, for Now
A change in fundamentals could make international bonds more attractive.
These Were the Biggest Investment Stories of 2021
In 2021, readers of the Investor Alert and Frank Talk were most interested in stories on gold mining, precious metals, natural resources and emerging markets (no surprise). But there was also interest in macroeconomic topics (inflation, mostly) as well as Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Chicago PMI Picks Up in December
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 63.1 in December from 61.8 in November, which is still in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
Clouds Over 2022
Although major economies and markets fared well in 2021 despite all of the uncertainties surrounding new variants of the coronavirus, 2022 will bring new challenges. In addition to central banks shifting toward policy normalization, geopolitical and systemic risks are multiplying.
Who Saw the Collapse of the USSR Coming?: Clara Ferreira Marques
The reason that few predicted Soviet collapse was that the Soviet Union outwardly appeared to be a mighty military power with an extensive security apparatus. Few observers understood just how little legitimacy the system possessed; that it was eaten away on the inside by the rot of corruption, by the loss of faith in ideology, by the dismal standards of living, and, lastly, by elite in-fighting.
There’s No Free Lunch On The Periodic Table
We can phase out fossil fuels like coal and natural gas, but we can’t phase out the metals and minerals necessary to build additional renewable energy projects.
Why Green Stocks Are Slumping During an ESG Boom
Despite a drop in clean-energy stocks and intensifying concerns about widespread greenwashing, the market for investment products sold as being ESG-related had another record year by most yardsticks.
The Paranoid Style in American Investing
The year 2021 will be remembered as one in which markets tumbled down a rabbit hole and entered financial wonderland: A once-elite undertaking became more populist, tribal, anarchic and often downright bizarre.
Top Global Risks of 2022
Despite the strong year for stocks in 2021, markets have confidently priced in some negative trends gathering more momentum in 2022 which may help markets, should trends reverse.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in November
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in November rose 0.36% and is up 7.2% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was down 0.25%. The real number is up 1.4% year-over-year.
Stocks Should Build on Gains in 2022, Markets Live Survey Says
The S&P 500 will probably end next year with a gain, while yields on 10-year Treasuries and the price of oil will climb as well. That’s according to nearly 900 Bloomberg Terminal clients who responded to a survey conducted by our Markets Live blog in the first two weeks of December.
Oil Futures Rise With Equities in Volatile Year-End Trading
Oil climbed with equities as traders resumed buying risk assets following a two-day rout.
NewsLetter - December 2021
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Making Money When They Stop Making Money
Rick Rieder and team identify 11 themes that could drive returns in 2022, as the greatest monetary experiment since the advent of flat currency enters its next phase.
Schwab Sector Views: Semiconductors—Boom or Bust?
The semiconductor shortage and its impact on everything from autos to smartphone production has been much in the news. The shortage has been a boon for semiconductor stock prices. But it likely will resolve itself in the coming months—or years, depending on whom you talk to—raising the specter of a bust.
Inflation Is Soaring – Americans Rightfully Concerned
For most Americans under the age of 50, inflation has never been much of an issue. Yes, prices rose a little every year but that was considered normal. Price increases of 1-2% a year for most goods and services were to be expected.
When Capitalism Died, And How Creditism Replaced It
Capitalism’s death warrant was signed on March 19, 1968. That is when President Lyndon Johnson eliminated the requirement that the Federal Reserve back the U.S. dollar with gold reserves.
COVID-19: Prepare for the Transition from Pandemic to Endemic
COVID-19 variants may come and go, but Senior Commodities Analyst Saurabh Lele thinks investors should plan for a longer-term scenario: a prolonged transition from pandemic to endemic conditions.
CIO Outlook—Buckling Up for 2022
CIO Robert Horrocks, PhD, sees fascinating and surprising investment opportunities arising in the emerging markets and China next year. Fed actions to manage inflation and the ongoing challenges of the pandemic will be important factors but the performance of markets may ultimately depend on the success of well-managed companies in key sectors.
A Brief Quiz on the Economy
Successful investors must answer three questions: Will we have serious inflation? Will interest rates increase? Will stock prices fall?
2022: Moderate GDP, Persistent Inflation
From 30,000 feet, the COVID lockdown and re-opening played out pretty much like we thought.
Employee Satisfaction Has Led to Higher Equity Prices
New research shows that companies that engender high employee satisfaction are rewarded with higher stock prices and investor returns.
The Best and Worst Investment (and other) Books of 2021
It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year. I have also included some novels and books of general interest. Here is my list of winners and losers.
A Strong Dollar is Threatening the Global Economy
The dollar is on the rise, and with it comes underappreciated consequences.
The Metaverse Is a $1 Trillion Revenue Opportunity. Here’s How to Invest
The metaverse is part of the next iteration of the internet some are calling Web 3.0—and it promises to upend everything as we know it.
Weekly Market Snapshot
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee accelerated the reduction (“tapering”) of its monthly asset purchases (now expected to end in March rather than June). The policy statement indicated that “job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined substantially.”