Join Sal Gilbertie, and Jake Hanley from Teucrium to learn how to put the Golden Grain Cycle to work for you.
Discussion about more political oversight or political control of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) occasionally heats up. We are seeing more of this type of discourse today as the election approaches. In our view, limited Fed independence could prove disastrous.
Oil futures posted their largest gain in more than a year last week. And the frenzy was even bigger in the options market.
The “no landing” scenario – a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates – had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months.
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How will the U.S. dollar respond to Federal Reserve rate cuts? The factors that have supported a strong dollar for years remain largely intact.
We are currently in the “everything market.” It doesn’t matter what you have probably invested in; it is currently increasing in value. However, it isn’t likely for the reasons you think. A recent Marketwatch interview with the always bullish Jim Paulson got his reasoning for the rally.
As we approach the final stretch of 2024, much of the nation’s focus is on the upcoming U.S. presidential election. But while the political landscape remains uncertain, the markets are painting a different picture. September, traditionally a sluggish month for global equities, delivered an unexpected surge.
Traders slashed their bets on the pace of future Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts after September US employment data blew past estimates and signaled a robust hiring trend.
When looking at the increasingly complex structure of corporate lending in the present day, it can be easy to lose sight of the purpose of private credit and its lasting value to investors.
As we look at today’s economy and financial markets, we are at a crossroads: Will it be a long straight highway to a soft landing, or will it be a bumpy road to recession?
The dollar is about to notch its best week in two years. Geopolitical unrest, the odds of lower borrowing costs overseas and a resilient US economy are all spurring the world’s reserve currency higher.
The yield on the 10-year note ended October 4, 2024 at 3.98%, the 2-year note ended at 3.93%, and the 30-year at 4.26%.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. September saw a 254,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 4.1%.
Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller is concerned that the Federal Reserve has boxed itself into a corner when it comes to future interest-rate cuts.
Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced his “Make in India” policies shortly after being elected prime minister in 2014, New Delhi has chased the dream of a prosperous manufacturing sector. There have been some successes — when it comes to making mobile phones, for example.
September is typically the weakest month of the year for stocks, but thanks to the much-anticipated federal funds rate cut, the S&P 500 turned in its first positive performance in a September since 2019
The major market event in September was the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut following the September 18th Federal Open Market Committee meeting. There was broad consensus the Fed would cut rates, though the 50 basis points (as opposed to 25) and perhaps the tone of Jay Powell's press conference surprised to the upside...
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its September services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 54.9, slightly better than the forecast. The latest reading moves the index back into expansion territory for 49th time in the past 50 months.
As of September 30, 2024, the 10-year note was 329 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.7%. The August core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) stays at 47.2 in September but remains in contraction territory for a sixth straight month. The index has now contracted for 22 of the past 23 months. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 47.6.
Earned media acts as a third-party stamp of approval for your firm, generating more referrals while boosting existing referrals.
Ray Dalio’s family office and Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s artificial intelligence firm G42 have abandoned plans to set up an asset management venture together in Abu Dhabi, according to people familiar with the matter.
Explore the significant opportunities for wealth advisors in managing 401(k) plans. Our Mike Dullaghan explains how these plans can help both advisors and clients with financial growth and retirement planning.
The economy reached an inflection point, with labor market conditions squarely in focus.
Historically, staying invested has been, in our view, an effective strategy and one to consider when it comes to election years and beyond.
After the first rate cut in two years went according to market expectations as the Fed reduced the federal funds rate by 50 bps, markets have continued to run with the Fed’s ball and seem to have a ‘sugar rush.'
Asian assets swung violently over the past three months, rocked by a succession of epochal events that culminated in a giant stimulus boost for China and propelled the region’s equities to world beaters.
Valid until the market close on October 31, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up to 46.6 in September from 46.1 in July. The latest reading is better than the 46.1 forecast but keeps the index in contraction territory for a tenth straight month.
Despite double-digit dividend yields in many cases and the cushion such high dividends provide, buying agency REITs is not a guaranteed home run in a bull steepener.
Sand. Salt. Iron. Copper. Oil. Lithium. These, not petabytes or algorithms or innovative ideas, are the building blocks of human life as we know it. At least that’s what Ed Conway, author of Material World, tells us.
A stronger-than-expected pivot to stimulus in the world’s two biggest economies has brightened the market outlook. For economists, the jury is still out.
US stocks will outperform the nation’s government and corporate bonds for the rest of this year as the Federal Reserve keeps cutting interest rates, the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey shows.
Gold is what you buy when everything isn’t goldilocks. Inflation, deflation, war, pestilence — gold is a certain anxious state of mind made tangible in a seductive but mostly useless metal. In a weird spin, gold has been enjoying a goldilocks period itself, hitting a new record last week. More that that, it seems almost immune to things that would usually drag it down.
Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points. This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting the economy amid a backdrop of softening economic data. For investors, understanding how similar rate cuts have historically impacted markets and which sectors tend to benefit is key to navigating the months ahead.
Two weeks ago, I began reviewing Martin Gurri’s important book, The Revolt of the Public. Rather than try to do a general review, I am going to liberally quote from Gurri’s book and interviews, trying to let him explain himself in his own words.
I attended and spoke at the European Blockchain Convention this week in Barcelona, where the energy around digital assets, Bitcoin and Web3 was palpable. Among the 6,000 attendees, there was a sense that we’re on the brink of a new era in finance and digital infrastructure.
The latest data suggests the U.S. economy is headed toward a soft landing rather than a recession. With Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts underway, markets are backing this view.
Gold has forged multiple new record highs so far this year, and is now up some 30% year to date, 3.5% in the past week alone.
Costco Wholesale Corp. posted higher-than-expected profit as moderating prices fueled consumer spending and store traffic climbed.
Since the beginning of the year, the OPEC+ countries that are subject to output caps have pumped together more than 600,000 barrels a day above their self-imposed limits.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.23% in August and is up 5.4% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.14% month-over-month and up 3.1% year-over-year.
At a finance conference in London this summer, four senior investment bankers set about persuading the room that the $1.7-trillion private credit market isn’t a threat to Wall Street. Barely three months later, two of them have jumped ship to seek their fortunes in the upstart asset class.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ recent proposal to ban price gouging in the grocery industry has raised tricky questions about the recent history of grocery prices, inflation and market power. Markups in grocery stores appear to be persistently higher than before the pandemic. But don’t rush to the conclusion that market power is the only explanation here.
Taxes can have a major impact on the long-term growth of a portfolio. Find out how continuous, thoughtful tax management can help investors maximize their wealth.
Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor provides his insights on how the Fed’s 50 basis point-rate cut may affect emerging economies, particularly in Asia and Latin America, how it impacts portfolio allocations and the sectors he believes are poised for growth amid this shift.
Barry Bannister, Managing Director and Chief Equity Strategist at Stifel, put out an excellent research piece on future returns based on what industry folks call the “equity risk premium.”
Home prices continued to trend upwards in July as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a eighteenth consecutive month to a new all-time high. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.3% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 5.9% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -0.1% and the YoY was reduced to 0.5%.
Schwab Sector Views is our six- to 12-month outlook for stock sectors, which represent broad sectors of the economy. The Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR) combines a factor-based approach with a market and economic assessment to determine the ratings. For the basics on sectors, please see Stock Sectors: What Are They? How Are They Used?
ETF Action’s Mike Akins offers perspective on many of the biggest stories in ETFs and looks ahead to the industry’s future. VettaFi’s Stacey Morris highlights a bright spot within the energy sector and discusses the potential impact of the upcoming election on energy prices.
The truth is, relationship-building and trust-building are mutually exclusive, like two parallel planes that don’t intersect.
On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the Federal funds rate, as expected, announcing at the same time that the Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet. In my view, both of these decisions were appropriate. The Fed reduced short-term rates by 50 basis points, which was consistent with economic conditions that remain near the threshold of recession.
Six of our eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through September 20th, 2024. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in the top spot with a year-to-date gain of 20.24%. India's BSE SENSEX finished in second with a year-to-date gain of 17.60% while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in third with a year-to-date gain of 12.73%.
Cliff Asness, co-founder of AQR Capital Management, made the news recently with the provocative claim that financial markets are getting less efficient. I worked at AQR for 10 years, but long before that I spent nearly two decades as the only mentee the renowned economist Fischer Black ever had. Fischer had a very different view of market efficiency and would, I think, have reached a different conclusion from Cliff’s data.
At this year's Future Proof, Jeffrey Gundlach took to the main stage and sat down for a candid conversation with CNBC’s Scott Wapner.
In 2021, the stock/bond correlation flipped to positive after remaining negative for a majority of the preceding 20 years.
What is your personal financial code of conduct? Whether you’re consciously aware of it or not, chances are you have an internal set of standards and taboos that guide the way you handle money.
Gold is seeing record prices, and while exposure to gold can be useful to a portfolio, it could behoove some investors to look at gold miners instead. Gold miners are well positioned to capitalize on the recent surge in interest in gold.
Join the experts at REX Shares for a free educational webcast and learn all about gold and gold miners.
I’m moving up a letter I was planning to share with you on my birthday weekend in two weeks. The story about sandpiles and the financial system may be the most popular letter I’ve written in the last 25 years. It is one we should all re-read every few years to remind us how change happens slowly, then suddenly.
For years, the U.S. has been the dominant player in military spending, with American companies like Lockheed Martin and RTX (formerly Raytheon) commanding the global arms market. But now, Europe—specifically its arms manufacturers—may be the next big opportunity for savvy investors.
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said inflation will probably prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates as much as expected in coming years.
Jay Powell: Federal Reserve Chair, soft-landing pilot … car dealer extraordinaire?
Sometimes that means lower priority tasks fall through the cracks. Here are four tips for managing procrastination tendencies.
What history can tell us about seasonal returns.
The owner of the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania will invest $1.6 billion to revive it, agreeing to sell all the output to Microsoft Corp. as the tech titan seeks carbon-free electricity for data centers to power the artificial intelligence boom.
The Fed enacted a 0.50% interest rate cut, the first in the Fed’s historic fight against inflation that’s lasted over two years.
VettaFi provides an overview of the Marcellus and Utica shale.
The last five years have bombarded investors with a seemingly never-ending array of challenges. Yet despite all these obstacles the S&P 500 is up almost 90% as of this writing.
History suggests Presidential elections are not nearly as important to the financial markets as the media plays them up to be, and a focus on fundamentals rather than political slogans has generally been beneficial. Historical asset class and sector performance shows virtually no consistent performance pattern under Democratic or Republican Presidents.
Panic is never a good investment strategy—nor is greed. Here's how disciplined investing helps navigate through volatile environments.
Nominal retail sales in August were up 0.05% month-over-month (MoM) and up 2.13% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.14% MoM and down 0.45% YoY.
The new thing in electricity is datacenters. The new new thing is … coal?
The money manager who hasn’t cracked open the Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Portfolio Management, or Financial Analysts Journal for the past few years probably hasn’t lost any steps.
The time has come! After the most aggressive tightening cycle in modern history, the Fed is ready to turn the page and begin dialing back its policy restraint after the second longest ‘on hold’ period (14 months) in history. Barring any surprises, the Fed should lower interest rates at its meeting next week—the first rate cut in over four years—in the hopes of preserving a soft landing for the economy.
As we move into the final stretch of 2024, many investors may be asking themselves: Is it time to give airline stocks another look? According to a new report from Bank of America (BofA), the answer might very well be yes
States enter fiscal 2025 maintaining stable reserves and moderating fixed costs, yet we expect many will need to make modest spending cuts due to exhaustion of federal pandemic aid.
“Fracking” is an expletive in environmental circles. Yet the spirit of shale is creeping into a business with transformational potential for the energy transition. Schlumberger NV, the industrial giant best known for sucking oil and gas from shale, the seabed (and other places besides), this week announced a breakthrough in direct lithium extraction, or DLE.
As we approach the end of 2024, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has provided us with critical insights into the health of the U.S. economy, particularly concerning inflation.
As AI's usage becomes increasingly widespread around the globe, energy consumption is soaring, along with a demand for additional power.
Recent Fed commentary and economic data have crystallized investor confidence in rate cuts coming in less than a week
Gold climbed to a record after another faster-than-forecast US inflation print and an uptick in applications for unemployment benefits substantiated bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.
If you entered this NFL season as a Kansas City Chiefs fan, you’re probably hoping for a Super Bowl win after clinching three of the past five Super Bowls and having Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback and Taylor Swift backing the team.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Inflation cooled for a fifth straight month in August, dropping to its lowest level since February 2021. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index fell to 2.5% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI cooled to 3.2% as expected.
Here’s a quote attributed to P. J. O’Rourke, an American author, journalist and political satirist: “There is a simple rule here, a rule of legislation, a rule of business, a rule of life: beyond a certain point, complexity is fraud.”
Banks and shadow banks are meant to exist in separate worlds, but the financial links between them are increasingly seen as a source of potential instability. That’s a problem for banks because the business of forging those ties has lately been among the hottest activities on Wall Street.
US Treasuries rallied ahead of a closely watched inflation reading that could cement bets on the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut this month.
Investors may find themselves prognosticating about future rates relative to current rates in an attempt to optimize their portfolio.
We learned a long time ago that we wanted to know what smart professional investors were doing. It’s always better to know who is smart rather than being smart yourself. Therefore, we’ve constantly kept track of insider buying, what great investors like Warren Buffett and Carlos Slim were doing, and what the most successful hedge funds were up to. A recent chart stopped us in our tracks.
Commodities
Opportunities in Grains: Putting The Golden Grain Cycle to Work for You
Join Sal Gilbertie, and Jake Hanley from Teucrium to learn how to put the Golden Grain Cycle to work for you.
Hands Off the Fed
Discussion about more political oversight or political control of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) occasionally heats up. We are seeing more of this type of discourse today as the election approaches. In our view, limited Fed independence could prove disastrous.
Oil Bets Most Bullish in Two Years as Mideast Tension Flares
Oil futures posted their largest gain in more than a year last week. And the frenzy was even bigger in the options market.
Bond Traders Buckle Up for ‘No Landing’ After Jobs Surprise
The “no landing” scenario – a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates – had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months.
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What Will Fed Rate Cuts Mean for the U.S. Dollar?
How will the U.S. dollar respond to Federal Reserve rate cuts? The factors that have supported a strong dollar for years remain largely intact.
The “Everything Market” Could Last A While Longer
We are currently in the “everything market.” It doesn’t matter what you have probably invested in; it is currently increasing in value. However, it isn’t likely for the reasons you think. A recent Marketwatch interview with the always bullish Jim Paulson got his reasoning for the rally.
Markets in 2024 Surge Despite Election Uncertainty and Global Risks
As we approach the final stretch of 2024, much of the nation’s focus is on the upcoming U.S. presidential election. But while the political landscape remains uncertain, the markets are painting a different picture. September, traditionally a sluggish month for global equities, delivered an unexpected surge.
Traders Rip Up Bets on Big Fed Cuts as Jobs Data Hits Bonds
Traders slashed their bets on the pace of future Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts after September US employment data blew past estimates and signaled a robust hiring trend.
The Enduring Value of Private Credit
When looking at the increasingly complex structure of corporate lending in the present day, it can be easy to lose sight of the purpose of private credit and its lasting value to investors.
The Great American Road Trip
As we look at today’s economy and financial markets, we are at a crossroads: Will it be a long straight highway to a soft landing, or will it be a bumpy road to recession?
Dollar Set for Best Week in Two Years as Big Fed Cut Bets Erased
The dollar is about to notch its best week in two years. Geopolitical unrest, the odds of lower borrowing costs overseas and a resilient US economy are all spurring the world’s reserve currency higher.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: October 4, 2024
The yield on the 10-year note ended October 4, 2024 at 3.98%, the 2-year note ended at 3.93%, and the 30-year at 4.26%.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: September Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. September saw a 254,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 4.1%.
Druckenmiller Is Wary of Fed’s Next Move After Hot Jobs Data
Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller is concerned that the Federal Reserve has boxed itself into a corner when it comes to future interest-rate cuts.
India Won’t Grow Without Taking on the World
Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced his “Make in India” policies shortly after being elected prime minister in 2014, New Delhi has chased the dream of a prosperous manufacturing sector. There have been some successes — when it comes to making mobile phones, for example.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Helped Propel Markets Forward
September is typically the weakest month of the year for stocks, but thanks to the much-anticipated federal funds rate cut, the S&P 500 turned in its first positive performance in a September since 2019
QuantStreet October 2024 Investor Letter: The Fed Finally Starts Easing
The major market event in September was the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut following the September 18th Federal Open Market Committee meeting. There was broad consensus the Fed would cut rates, though the 50 basis points (as opposed to 25) and perhaps the tone of Jay Powell's press conference surprised to the upside...
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Third Straight Month in September
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its September services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 54.9, slightly better than the forecast. The latest reading moves the index back into expansion territory for 49th time in the past 50 months.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of September 30, 2024, the 10-year note was 329 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
Two Measures of Inflation: August 2024
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.7%. The August core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
ISM Manufacturing Index Stays Same as Last Month
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) stays at 47.2 in September but remains in contraction territory for a sixth straight month. The index has now contracted for 22 of the past 23 months. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 47.6.
How to Leverage Earned Media for More Referrals
Earned media acts as a third-party stamp of approval for your firm, generating more referrals while boosting existing referrals.
Dalio, Abu Dhabi Royal’s G42 Said to Shelve Investment Venture
Ray Dalio’s family office and Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s artificial intelligence firm G42 have abandoned plans to set up an asset management venture together in Abu Dhabi, according to people familiar with the matter.
Unlocking the Treasure Chest: The Growing Opportunity of 401(k) Plans for Wealth Advisors
Explore the significant opportunities for wealth advisors in managing 401(k) plans. Our Mike Dullaghan explains how these plans can help both advisors and clients with financial growth and retirement planning.
Another Solid Quarter for the Equity Market
The economy reached an inflection point, with labor market conditions squarely in focus.
Party in the USA: Election Facts
Historically, staying invested has been, in our view, an effective strategy and one to consider when it comes to election years and beyond.
Markets Are Having a Sugar Rush
After the first rate cut in two years went according to market expectations as the Fed reduced the federal funds rate by 50 bps, markets have continued to run with the Fed’s ball and seem to have a ‘sugar rush.'
Suddenly Asia Is Place to Be as Stocks, Currencies Outperform
Asian assets swung violently over the past three months, rocked by a succession of epochal events that culminated in a giant stimulus boost for China and propelled the region’s equities to world beaters.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes September 2024 Up 2.0%
Valid until the market close on October 31, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Chicago PMI Edged Higher in September
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up to 46.6 in September from 46.1 in July. The latest reading is better than the 46.1 forecast but keeps the index in contraction territory for a tenth straight month.
Buying the Bull Steepener With Agency REITs
Despite double-digit dividend yields in many cases and the cushion such high dividends provide, buying agency REITs is not a guaranteed home run in a bull steepener.
Living in a Material World: The Surprisingly Gripping Tale of Six Natural Resources
Sand. Salt. Iron. Copper. Oil. Lithium. These, not petabytes or algorithms or innovative ideas, are the building blocks of human life as we know it. At least that’s what Ed Conway, author of Material World, tells us.
Market-Boosting Moves in US, China Yet to Convince Economists
A stronger-than-expected pivot to stimulus in the world’s two biggest economies has brightened the market outlook. For economists, the jury is still out.
Stocks Are In and Bonds Are Out: Top Trades for the Rest of the Year
US stocks will outperform the nation’s government and corporate bonds for the rest of this year as the Federal Reserve keeps cutting interest rates, the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey shows.
Gold’s Record Run Can’t Continue Forever, Right?
Gold is what you buy when everything isn’t goldilocks. Inflation, deflation, war, pestilence — gold is a certain anxious state of mind made tangible in a seductive but mostly useless metal. In a weird spin, gold has been enjoying a goldilocks period itself, hitting a new record last week. More that that, it seems almost immune to things that would usually drag it down.
50 Basis Point Rate Cut – A Review And Outlook
Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points. This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting the economy amid a backdrop of softening economic data. For investors, understanding how similar rate cuts have historically impacted markets and which sectors tend to benefit is key to navigating the months ahead.
The Revolt of the Public, Part 2
Two weeks ago, I began reviewing Martin Gurri’s important book, The Revolt of the Public. Rather than try to do a general review, I am going to liberally quote from Gurri’s book and interviews, trying to let him explain himself in his own words.
How M-PESA Is Leading a Financial Revolution Across Africa
I attended and spoke at the European Blockchain Convention this week in Barcelona, where the energy around digital assets, Bitcoin and Web3 was palpable. Among the 6,000 attendees, there was a sense that we’re on the brink of a new era in finance and digital infrastructure.
2024 Global Market Outlook – Q4 update: Definitely Maybe
The latest data suggests the U.S. economy is headed toward a soft landing rather than a recession. With Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts underway, markets are backing this view.
Capturing More Than Price Gains With Unique Gold ETFs
Gold has forged multiple new record highs so far this year, and is now up some 30% year to date, 3.5% in the past week alone.
Costco Profit Beats Estimates Amid Moderating Inflation
Costco Wholesale Corp. posted higher-than-expected profit as moderating prices fueled consumer spending and store traffic climbed.
The Cheating Game Inside the OPEC+ Oil Cartel
Since the beginning of the year, the OPEC+ countries that are subject to output caps have pumped together more than 600,000 barrels a day above their self-imposed limits.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.1% in August
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.23% in August and is up 5.4% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.14% month-over-month and up 3.1% year-over-year.
Bonus-Starved Bankers Are Jumping Ship for Private Credit Riches
At a finance conference in London this summer, four senior investment bankers set about persuading the room that the $1.7-trillion private credit market isn’t a threat to Wall Street. Barely three months later, two of them have jumped ship to seek their fortunes in the upstart asset class.
Blaming Greedflation for High Food Prices Is Misguided
Vice President Kamala Harris’ recent proposal to ban price gouging in the grocery industry has raised tricky questions about the recent history of grocery prices, inflation and market power. Markups in grocery stores appear to be persistently higher than before the pandemic. But don’t rush to the conclusion that market power is the only explanation here.
What Is Tax Management?
Taxes can have a major impact on the long-term growth of a portfolio. Find out how continuous, thoughtful tax management can help investors maximize their wealth.
What the Fed’s Rate Cut Means for Emerging Markets
Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor provides his insights on how the Fed’s 50 basis point-rate cut may affect emerging economies, particularly in Asia and Latin America, how it impacts portfolio allocations and the sectors he believes are poised for growth amid this shift.
When Buffett Meets Bannister
Barry Bannister, Managing Director and Chief Equity Strategist at Stifel, put out an excellent research piece on future returns based on what industry folks call the “equity risk premium.”
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Hits New Record High in July
Home prices continued to trend upwards in July as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a eighteenth consecutive month to a new all-time high. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.3% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 5.9% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -0.1% and the YoY was reduced to 0.5%.
Sector Views: Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Schwab Sector Views is our six- to 12-month outlook for stock sectors, which represent broad sectors of the economy. The Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR) combines a factor-based approach with a market and economic assessment to determine the ratings. For the basics on sectors, please see Stock Sectors: What Are They? How Are They Used?
ETF Action’s Mike Akins on Flows, Active Management, Options Strategies, Crypto, & More
ETF Action’s Mike Akins offers perspective on many of the biggest stories in ETFs and looks ahead to the industry’s future. VettaFi’s Stacey Morris highlights a bright spot within the energy sector and discusses the potential impact of the upcoming election on energy prices.
Stop Building Relationships to Make the Sale
The truth is, relationship-building and trust-building are mutually exclusive, like two parallel planes that don’t intersect.
Asking a Better Question
On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the Federal funds rate, as expected, announcing at the same time that the Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet. In my view, both of these decisions were appropriate. The Fed reduced short-term rates by 50 basis points, which was consistent with economic conditions that remain near the threshold of recession.
World Markets Watchlist: September 20, 2024
Six of our eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through September 20th, 2024. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in the top spot with a year-to-date gain of 20.24%. India's BSE SENSEX finished in second with a year-to-date gain of 17.60% while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in third with a year-to-date gain of 12.73%.
Fischer Black Would See Bubbles as Traps for Traders
Cliff Asness, co-founder of AQR Capital Management, made the news recently with the provocative claim that financial markets are getting less efficient. I worked at AQR for 10 years, but long before that I spent nearly two decades as the only mentee the renowned economist Fischer Black ever had. Fischer had a very different view of market efficiency and would, I think, have reached a different conclusion from Cliff’s data.
DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach on the Fed, Gold and Private Credit
At this year's Future Proof, Jeffrey Gundlach took to the main stage and sat down for a candid conversation with CNBC’s Scott Wapner.
Alternative Diversifiers: Rethinking Diversification in Investment Portfolios
In 2021, the stock/bond correlation flipped to positive after remaining negative for a majority of the preceding 20 years.
How Your Money Code of Conduct Shapes Your Financial Success
What is your personal financial code of conduct? Whether you’re consciously aware of it or not, chances are you have an internal set of standards and taboos that guide the way you handle money.
Unlocking Gold's Potential: Trading Strategies for Q4
Gold is seeing record prices, and while exposure to gold can be useful to a portfolio, it could behoove some investors to look at gold miners instead. Gold miners are well positioned to capitalize on the recent surge in interest in gold.
Join the experts at REX Shares for a free educational webcast and learn all about gold and gold miners.
Late Summer Sandpile
I’m moving up a letter I was planning to share with you on my birthday weekend in two weeks. The story about sandpiles and the financial system may be the most popular letter I’ve written in the last 25 years. It is one we should all re-read every few years to remind us how change happens slowly, then suddenly.
Surge in Defense Funding Puts European Stocks in the Spotlight
For years, the U.S. has been the dominant player in military spending, with American companies like Lockheed Martin and RTX (formerly Raytheon) commanding the global arms market. But now, Europe—specifically its arms manufacturers—may be the next big opportunity for savvy investors.
Summers Sees Fed Rate Projections Upended, Higher Mortgage Rates
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said inflation will probably prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates as much as expected in coming years.
Jay Powell Makes a Heckuva Car Salesman
Jay Powell: Federal Reserve Chair, soft-landing pilot … car dealer extraordinaire?
4 Tips for Advisors Struggling With Procrastination
Sometimes that means lower priority tasks fall through the cracks. Here are four tips for managing procrastination tendencies.
Autumn: The Witching Season
What history can tell us about seasonal returns.
Microsoft’s AI Power Needs Prompt Revival of Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant
The owner of the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania will invest $1.6 billion to revive it, agreeing to sell all the output to Microsoft Corp. as the tech titan seeks carbon-free electricity for data centers to power the artificial intelligence boom.
Fed Takes Aggressive Rate Cut Approach: Now What?
The Fed enacted a 0.50% interest rate cut, the first in the Fed’s historic fight against inflation that’s lasted over two years.
Basin Basics: Appalachia Offers More Than Gas
VettaFi provides an overview of the Marcellus and Utica shale.
Hedged Equity: For the Best of Times, For the Worst of Times
The last five years have bombarded investors with a seemingly never-ending array of challenges. Yet despite all these obstacles the S&P 500 is up almost 90% as of this writing.
Fade the Election
History suggests Presidential elections are not nearly as important to the financial markets as the media plays them up to be, and a focus on fundamentals rather than political slogans has generally been beneficial. Historical asset class and sector performance shows virtually no consistent performance pattern under Democratic or Republican Presidents.
Panic Is Not a Strategy—Nor Is Greed
Panic is never a good investment strategy—nor is greed. Here's how disciplined investing helps navigate through volatile environments.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Down 0.1% in August
Nominal retail sales in August were up 0.05% month-over-month (MoM) and up 2.13% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.14% MoM and down 0.45% YoY.
AI Heralds a New Deal for Old Coal Plants
The new thing in electricity is datacenters. The new new thing is … coal?
Who Needs Academic Finance Literature?
The money manager who hasn’t cracked open the Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Portfolio Management, or Financial Analysts Journal for the past few years probably hasn’t lost any steps.
Shifts in the Fed’s Dot Plot Should Set the Market’s Tone
The time has come! After the most aggressive tightening cycle in modern history, the Fed is ready to turn the page and begin dialing back its policy restraint after the second longest ‘on hold’ period (14 months) in history. Barring any surprises, the Fed should lower interest rates at its meeting next week—the first rate cut in over four years—in the hopes of preserving a soft landing for the economy.
It’s Time to Reconsider Airline Stocks. Here Are Four Reasons Why.
As we move into the final stretch of 2024, many investors may be asking themselves: Is it time to give airline stocks another look? According to a new report from Bank of America (BofA), the answer might very well be yes
Municipal Bonds: Fiscal 2025 State Outlook
States enter fiscal 2025 maintaining stable reserves and moderating fixed costs, yet we expect many will need to make modest spending cuts due to exhaustion of federal pandemic aid.
The Spirit of Fracking Comes to US Lithium Mining
“Fracking” is an expletive in environmental circles. Yet the spirit of shale is creeping into a business with transformational potential for the energy transition. Schlumberger NV, the industrial giant best known for sucking oil and gas from shale, the seabed (and other places besides), this week announced a breakthrough in direct lithium extraction, or DLE.
Latest CPI Numbers Signal Potential Problems for 2025
As we approach the end of 2024, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has provided us with critical insights into the health of the U.S. economy, particularly concerning inflation.
Is AI Slowing Down the Energy Transition?
As AI's usage becomes increasingly widespread around the globe, energy consumption is soaring, along with a demand for additional power.
Positioning Ahead of the Fed: ETFs for a Lower Rate Era
Recent Fed commentary and economic data have crystallized investor confidence in rate cuts coming in less than a week
Gold Climbs to a Record as US Data Bolster Fed Rate Cut Case
Gold climbed to a record after another faster-than-forecast US inflation print and an uptick in applications for unemployment benefits substantiated bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.
Q2 2024 Earnings Season Review: Beating Expectations Isn’t Enough
If you entered this NFL season as a Kansas City Chiefs fan, you’re probably hoping for a Super Bowl win after clinching three of the past five Super Bowls and having Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback and Taylor Swift backing the team.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: August 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Cools to 2.5% in August
Inflation cooled for a fifth straight month in August, dropping to its lowest level since February 2021. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index fell to 2.5% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI cooled to 3.2% as expected.
It's Increasingly Difficult to Defend Your Complex Portfolios
Here’s a quote attributed to P. J. O’Rourke, an American author, journalist and political satirist: “There is a simple rule here, a rule of legislation, a rule of business, a rule of life: beyond a certain point, complexity is fraud.”
Wall Street’s Hottest Business Is About to Cool
Banks and shadow banks are meant to exist in separate worlds, but the financial links between them are increasingly seen as a source of potential instability. That’s a problem for banks because the business of forging those ties has lately been among the hottest activities on Wall Street.
US Two-Year Yield Falls to Lowest Since 2022 Ahead of CPI Report
US Treasuries rallied ahead of a closely watched inflation reading that could cement bets on the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut this month.
Unparalleled Rate Movement
Investors may find themselves prognosticating about future rates relative to current rates in an attempt to optimize their portfolio.
When Smart Money is Wrong
We learned a long time ago that we wanted to know what smart professional investors were doing. It’s always better to know who is smart rather than being smart yourself. Therefore, we’ve constantly kept track of insider buying, what great investors like Warren Buffett and Carlos Slim were doing, and what the most successful hedge funds were up to. A recent chart stopped us in our tracks.