Alternative ETFs, which package exposures like commodities and digital assets, have experienced record-breaking adoption in the past year.
Nominal retail sales in April were up 0.06% month-over-month (MoM) and up 5.16% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.16% MoM and up 2.76% YoY.
Saudi Arabia is ramping up efforts to lure high frequency trading firms — a campaign that’s already brought in major players from Citadel Securities to Hudson River Trading — as it looks to bolster activity on the Middle East’s largest stock market.
Gold steadied as investors pulled away from risky assets and waited for more clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
By the end of April, the S&P 500 rallied its way back, recovering nearly all the declines notched in the opening days of the month when President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff plans tipped markets towards bear territory.
Emerging market equities and bonds could benefit if the US dollar weakens—a possible scenario amid tariff turmoil.
Warren Buffett has finally answered a question that has long intrigued investors: What sparked his interest in five Japanese trading houses in 2020, a bet that is now worth more than $25 billion?
Flows of gold into Asian ETFs exploded in April, driving global ETF gold holdings higher for the fifth straight month.
The chain-smoking protagonist of Landman, the American television drama series about the Texas oil industry, puts it better than anyone else: “You want oil to live above 60, but below 90,” says the fictional Tommy Norris. “Seventy-eight dollars a barrel, that’s about perfect.”
The U.S. may not walk back all of the new tariffs.
Gas prices dropped to their lowest level in seven weeks. As of May 12th, the price of regular gas down 3 cents while premium gas was unchanged from the previous week.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Global AI, a US tech firm, plans to collaborate with a Saudi Arabian artificial intelligence venture, Humain, in an agreement expected to be worth billions of dollars, according to a person familiar with the mattter.
Inflation cooled for a third straight month in April, hitting its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.4% in March and lower than the expected 2.4% growth.
China and the U.S. conducted their first formal trade talks of 2025 over the weekend. And on Monday, May 12, they announced the outcome of their negotiations.
The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through May 12, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 20.01%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.71% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.24%.
Are you prepared to adjust your portfolio in the coming months for the possibility that calm, tranquil markets and a resumption of the bullish trend emerge?
The US and China will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products in a dramatic ratcheting down of trade tensions that buys the world’s two largest economies three months to work toward a broader agreement.
With Wall Street kicking off another rally, American stocks are now trading like Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” shock never happened.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
I’ve been writing about tariffs for a couple of months now, focusing mostly on the macroeconomic harm and the costs they impose on small businesses. Today I want to consider something else: the new risks they are adding to the financial system alongside the old risks.
As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight.
In a rare moment of honesty, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted he and his fellow central bankers don’t know what they’re doing as they wrapped up the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.
China drove the surge in retail investment demand, charting the second strongest quarter on record.
The yield on the 10-year note ended May 9, 2025 at 4.37%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year note ended at 4.83%.
US equity investors will be watching closely as trade talks kick off between the Trump administration and China, with trillions of dollars hanging in the balance for American companies.
The culture clash between Bitcoin enthusiasts and gold bugs is about to be played out in the world of exchange-traded funds.
Central banks continued to stockpile gold in the first quarter.
As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.
After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.
When I was much younger, I worked as a bond salesman for a small regional bank in the southwest. I sold some short-term T-bills to yield 17% and some ten-year T-bonds to yield 14%. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman at the time, had reduced inflation dramatically but the bond market had not yet accepted that new reality and kept interest rates very high for a while after Volker achieved his lower level of inflation.
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
Valid until the market close on May 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Trend-following strategies can offer attractive, positively skewed returns, with large positive outperformance often coinciding with large equity selloffs, thereby offering tail protection.
Over the past two weeks, the market has had a furious nine-day rally, the longest winning streak in 21 years.
Despite negative GDP growth in Q1 and global trade tensions, markets are showing surprising resilience. Investors are betting tariffs will not bite as hard as feared earlier in April and that deals will emerge to soften the blow.
Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.
Roughly a month on from Liberation Day one thing is clear: While actual tariff numbers may not be set, markets have certainly been liberated from complacency. S
Record gold prices drove first-quarter demand in 2025 to the highest level since 2016.
The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record high as imports rose more than exports. In March, the trade deficit rose 14.0% to -$140.5B, the fourth monthly increase in the past five months.
Morningstar Inc. has been rating stock and bond funds for everyday investors for years. Now it will award gold, silver and bronze medals to less-liquid private asset funds marketed to the masses.
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
The uncertainty around US tariff policy has significantly increased US equity volatility.
Markets clawed back early losses in April, but one thing has become clear – policy uncertainty and risk isn’t fading, it’s spreading.
If you’ve been inside a Walmart, Target or Home Depot in the past week, you may not realize that a trade war is underway between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. Store shelves are well stocked, and prices have largely held steady.
This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.
US markets struggled in the first half of April due to tariff-related worries. The second half saw rallies amid policy reversal.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 51.6—above the forecast of 50.2. This marks the tenth consecutive month of expansion for the index.
The April U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 50.8, below the 51.4 forecast. The reading marks the 27th consecutive month of expansion and the slowest growth since November 2023.
Warren Buffett picked the final minute of his 60th shareholder meeting to drop a long-awaited announcement that was still completely surprising for his fans, most of his board and even his successor.
The GDP report for the first quarter of the year showed a very engaged business sector as it rushed to try to minimize, as much as possible, the future impact of higher tariffs.
While the S&P 500 index was almost unchanged in April, the dollar remained extremely weak, ending the month down over 4%.
April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.
Inflation is caused by the growth of the money supply, and gold is a strong hedge because it rises alongside it.
Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.
For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In April, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
At the end of April, U.S.-listed ETFs gathered approximately $360 billion of new money.
US stock futures rose Friday, putting the S&P 500 Index on track to post the longest winning streak in more than 20 years after a government report showed buoyant hiring in April, providing evidence of resilience in an economy beset by trade pressures.
Conventional wisdom is that investors should hold gold as an inflation hedge. Over the long term, this is a wise strategy.ok,
Uncertainty reigned through April and likely will continue to do so, at least in the near term. Markets have reacted, both negatively and positively, to every headline coming out of Washington.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and how investors can protect their portfolios against the potential for an environment of prolonged and heighted volatility.
Like sailors lured by the Sirens' song, today’s investors risk being captivated by seductive narratives in the market. While diversification remains a time-tested strategy for building wealth, we examine the risks and returns investors are embracing today.
In the early years of the artificial intelligence (AI) race, performance benchmarks told a clear story: a handful of frontier models, developed by a few dominant labs, consistently outperformed the rest. In 2024, that changed.
Famous gold skeptic Warren Buffett is right about the dangers of inflation when it comes to non-producing assets, but he’s never been a fan of gold. Monetary Metals has transformed gold into a productive asset by generating a yield on gold, paid in gold, proving Buffett wrong about gold and giving investors new ways to own this timeless asset.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.7 in April, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a second straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.0.
U.S. manufacturing growth remained subdued in April as confidence in the outlook hit a ten-month low and prices continued to quickly rise. With that said, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fourth straight month in April at 50.2 signaling a marginal expansion. The latest reading was lower than the 50.7 forecast.
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of April 30, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.37%.
Many American consumers recently endured their first inflationary cycle, and recent trade headlines have elevated fears of a another bout with higher costs. While not impacted by tariffs, energy markets may play a critical role in driving the price level during the balance of this year.
With flexibility, humility and disciplined processes, equity investors can find a way forward.
First, let’s check the market action. Fortunately for stocks, the public has come around to a thesis that the sky is not falling, though there are a ton of market viewers who remain decidedly skeptical that the worst is behind us.
After the U.S. imposed substantial tariffs on China, Beijing responded with tariffs of its own and with restrictions on exports of seven rare earth minerals. The latter action will be a particular hindrance to American manufacturers.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.6% in March and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.7% month-over-month and up 1.4% year-over-year.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.6%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Operating as a one-person shop means you’ll wear many hats, but there are common pitfalls you can avoid — and marketing strategies that can help you make the most of your time and resources.
Right now, you don’t want to burn any bridges anywhere, as you don’t know how things will unfold. Be professional and be kind. But you also have every right to set boundaries and to protect yourself!
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for the first time this year. The index dropped to 44.6 this month from 47.6 in March, falling short of the 45.9 forecast. The latest reading marks the 17th consecutive month the index has contracted.
Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.
As we have written…The Era of Easy Everything is ending. Part of this involves bringing inflation back to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. We could debate that number, but the Fed is getting closer.
While most market watchers have focused on the wildly yo-yoing stock market over the last few weeks, the Treasury bond market has been flashing warnings.
Cryptocurrency investors waded back into the market last week, riding a surge in Bitcoin.
There are plenty of frustrated silver bugs. Gold is outperforming once again, and they wonder when silver will finally catch up.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in February as the benchmark national index rose for the 25th consecutive month to a 21st straight record high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.9% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.0% and YoY fell to -0.5%.
The sole pursuit of shareholder value — i.e. of maximizing stock price — leads not to a focus on creating the greatest possible value for the firm’s customers, but to a focus on financial metrics and financial engineering.
The panic over the years has inevitably influenced policy even if heeding cooler heads would offer reassurance. Which brings us to the current US administration.
American leaders are now engaged in an effort to reverse the loss of manufacturing. The hope is to restore a path to prosperity for struggling regions and their residents. Tariffs are being employed liberally as a means to this end.
President Donald Trump’s recent executive order revives many of the SDI’s ambitions, albeit with a modern twist. His January 27 directive launched what he first called an “Iron Dome for America,” later rebranded as the “Golden Dome.”
Commodities
ETFs Enhance Access to Alternative Investments
Alternative ETFs, which package exposures like commodities and digital assets, have experienced record-breaking adoption in the past year.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Fall 0.2% in April
Nominal retail sales in April were up 0.06% month-over-month (MoM) and up 5.16% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.16% MoM and up 2.76% YoY.
Wall Street’s High-Frequency Traders Are Rushing Into Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is ramping up efforts to lure high frequency trading firms — a campaign that’s already brought in major players from Citadel Securities to Hudson River Trading — as it looks to bolster activity on the Middle East’s largest stock market.
Gold Steadies as Risk Appetite Fades With Fed Rate Path in Focus
Gold steadied as investors pulled away from risky assets and waited for more clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
Is the Coast Clear Yet?
By the end of April, the S&P 500 rallied its way back, recovering nearly all the declines notched in the opening days of the month when President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff plans tipped markets towards bear territory.
Would a Weaker US Dollar Support Emerging Market Assets?
Emerging market equities and bonds could benefit if the US dollar weakens—a possible scenario amid tariff turmoil.
Buffett’s Little Japan Handbook and Other Lessons
Warren Buffett has finally answered a question that has long intrigued investors: What sparked his interest in five Japanese trading houses in 2020, a bet that is now worth more than $25 billion?
A Surge of Gold into Asian ETFs Drove Global Holdings Higher in April
Flows of gold into Asian ETFs exploded in April, driving global ETF gold holdings higher for the fifth straight month.
US Oil Output Has Peaked. But Don’t Expect a Rapid Decline.
The chain-smoking protagonist of Landman, the American television drama series about the Texas oil industry, puts it better than anyone else: “You want oil to live above 60, but below 90,” says the fictional Tommy Norris. “Seventy-eight dollars a barrel, that’s about perfect.”
U.S./Japan Trade Negotiations
The U.S. may not walk back all of the new tariffs.
Gas Prices Drop to 7-Week Low
Gas prices dropped to their lowest level in seven weeks. As of May 12th, the price of regular gas down 3 cents while premium gas was unchanged from the previous week.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: April 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
US Firm Global AI Secures Saudi Investment Worth Billions
Global AI, a US tech firm, plans to collaborate with a Saudi Arabian artificial intelligence venture, Humain, in an agreement expected to be worth billions of dollars, according to a person familiar with the mattter.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Cools to 2.3% in April, Lower Than Expected
Inflation cooled for a third straight month in April, hitting its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.4% in March and lower than the expected 2.4% growth.
Giant Step in U.S./China Tariff Talks Sends Stocks Soaring
China and the U.S. conducted their first formal trade talks of 2025 over the weekend. And on Monday, May 12, they announced the outcome of their negotiations.
Hate It or Love It: Sentiment's Message
The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
Basel III Makes It Official: Gold Is Money Again
For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.
World Markets Watchlist: May 12, 2025
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through May 12, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 20.01%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.71% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.24%.
The Storm Before the Calm
Are you prepared to adjust your portfolio in the coming months for the possibility that calm, tranquil markets and a resumption of the bullish trend emerge?
US, China to Slash Tariffs During 90-Day Reprieve for Talks
The US and China will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products in a dramatic ratcheting down of trade tensions that buys the world’s two largest economies three months to work toward a broader agreement.
‘Buy America’ Sweeps Across Global Markets After Trade Talks
With Wall Street kicking off another rally, American stocks are now trading like Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” shock never happened.
The Federal Reserve Reserves the Right to Change Its Mind
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Tension in the Sandpile
I’ve been writing about tariffs for a couple of months now, focusing mostly on the macroeconomic harm and the costs they impose on small businesses. Today I want to consider something else: the new risks they are adding to the financial system alongside the old risks.
Barometer: Equities Set for Further Falls as Tariffs Bite
As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight.
Fed Chair Powell Tells the Truth: "We Don't Know!"
In a rare moment of honesty, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted he and his fellow central bankers don’t know what they’re doing as they wrapped up the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
You Can Run, But You Can’t Hedge
Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.
Global Gold Bar and Coin Demand Rose in Q1 But Not in the U.S.
China drove the surge in retail investment demand, charting the second strongest quarter on record.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 9, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended May 9, 2025 at 4.37%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year note ended at 4.83%.
Traders’ Guide to US Stocks Most Affected in China Trade Talks
US equity investors will be watching closely as trade talks kick off between the Trump administration and China, with trillions of dollars hanging in the balance for American companies.
Wall Street Brings the Bitcoin-Versus-Gold Clash to ETF Masses
The culture clash between Bitcoin enthusiasts and gold bugs is about to be played out in the world of exchange-traded funds.
Central Banks Continued Stockpiling Gold in Q1
Central banks continued to stockpile gold in the first quarter.
Mixed Signals on the Path Ahead for U.S. Economy
As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.
Tariff Risks Reshape Manager Positioning
After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.
Bonzai Bonds: Could 14% Treasury Bonds Return?
When I was much younger, I worked as a bond salesman for a small regional bank in the southwest. I sold some short-term T-bills to yield 17% and some ten-year T-bonds to yield 14%. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman at the time, had reduced inflation dramatically but the bond market had not yet accepted that new reality and kept interest rates very high for a while after Volker achieved his lower level of inflation.
Gridlock
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: April 2025
Valid until the market close on May 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Walking the Tightrope: Trend Following’s Tricky Tradeoffs
Trend-following strategies can offer attractive, positively skewed returns, with large positive outperformance often coinciding with large equity selloffs, thereby offering tail protection.
“Resistance Is Futile” – For Both Bulls And Bears
Over the past two weeks, the market has had a furious nine-day rally, the longest winning streak in 21 years.
Markets Betting on Tariff Relief But Impact Still Lurks
Despite negative GDP growth in Q1 and global trade tensions, markets are showing surprising resilience. Investors are betting tariffs will not bite as hard as feared earlier in April and that deals will emerge to soften the blow.
Gold Has Many Buyers
Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.
A Tariff-Centric World Takes Shape
Roughly a month on from Liberation Day one thing is clear: While actual tariff numbers may not be set, markets have certainly been liberated from complacency. S
First Quarter Gold Demand at Highest Level Since 2016
Record gold prices drove first-quarter demand in 2025 to the highest level since 2016.
Trade Deficit Widens to Record High in March
The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record high as imports rose more than exports. In March, the trade deficit rose 14.0% to -$140.5B, the fourth monthly increase in the past five months.
Morningstar Will Now Call Out Lackluster Private Investments
Morningstar Inc. has been rating stock and bond funds for everyday investors for years. Now it will award gold, silver and bronze medals to less-liquid private asset funds marketed to the masses.
Tariffs: Q1 Impacts and Q2 Negotiations
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
Pyrrhic Victory: Sacrificing Pretax Returns at the Altar of Realized Losses
The uncertainty around US tariff policy has significantly increased US equity volatility.
Ongoing Policy Uncertainty Keeps Markets Uneasy
Markets clawed back early losses in April, but one thing has become clear – policy uncertainty and risk isn’t fading, it’s spreading.
U.S. Ports Face Massive Slowdowns as Trump Tariffs Bite Hard
If you’ve been inside a Walmart, Target or Home Depot in the past week, you may not realize that a trade war is underway between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. Store shelves are well stocked, and prices have largely held steady.
Looking Beyond President Trump’s First 100 Days in Office
This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.
Staying Resilient in Uncertain Markets
US markets struggled in the first half of April due to tariff-related worries. The second half saw rallies amid policy reversal.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Tenth Straight Month in April
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 51.6—above the forecast of 50.2. This marks the tenth consecutive month of expansion for the index.
S&P Global Services PMI: Slowest Growth in 17 Months
The April U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 50.8, below the 51.4 forecast. The reading marks the 27th consecutive month of expansion and the slowest growth since November 2023.
Buffett Hands Successor a Giant Cash Pile and Many Questions
Warren Buffett picked the final minute of his 60th shareholder meeting to drop a long-awaited announcement that was still completely surprising for his fans, most of his board and even his successor.
Firms Front-Load Increase in Tariffs During Q1 2025
The GDP report for the first quarter of the year showed a very engaged business sector as it rushed to try to minimize, as much as possible, the future impact of higher tariffs.
QuantStreet May 2025 Letter: Negotiations
While the S&P 500 index was almost unchanged in April, the dollar remained extremely weak, ending the month down over 4%.
Top Lessons from Professor Siegel This April
April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.
Gold Isn't Going Up - Your Money is Just Losing Value
Inflation is caused by the growth of the money supply, and gold is a strong hedge because it rises alongside it.
Soft Data Gets Softer
Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.
U.S. Treasuries Falling Out of Favor?
For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: April Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In April, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
ETFs on Pace (Again) to Break a Record
At the end of April, U.S.-listed ETFs gathered approximately $360 billion of new money.
US Stock Futures Extend Gains After Strong Jobs Report
US stock futures rose Friday, putting the S&P 500 Index on track to post the longest winning streak in more than 20 years after a government report showed buoyant hiring in April, providing evidence of resilience in an economy beset by trade pressures.
Buy Gold to Hedge Against Everything!
Conventional wisdom is that investors should hold gold as an inflation hedge. Over the long term, this is a wise strategy.ok,
April Showered with Tariff Talk, Market Volatility
Uncertainty reigned through April and likely will continue to do so, at least in the near term. Markets have reacted, both negatively and positively, to every headline coming out of Washington.
Aim to Keep Risk Modest and Quality High
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and how investors can protect their portfolios against the potential for an environment of prolonged and heighted volatility.
Diversification vs. the Siren's Song
Like sailors lured by the Sirens' song, today’s investors risk being captivated by seductive narratives in the market. While diversification remains a time-tested strategy for building wealth, we examine the risks and returns investors are embracing today.
AI’s Great Flattening: What Happens when Everyone Is State-of-the-Art?
In the early years of the artificial intelligence (AI) race, performance benchmarks told a clear story: a handful of frontier models, developed by a few dominant labs, consistently outperformed the rest. In 2024, that changed.
Warren Buffett Is Wrong About Gold
Famous gold skeptic Warren Buffett is right about the dangers of inflation when it comes to non-producing assets, but he’s never been a fan of gold. Monetary Metals has transformed gold into a productive asset by generating a yield on gold, paid in gold, proving Buffett wrong about gold and giving investors new ways to own this timeless asset.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slipped Further into Contraction in April
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.7 in April, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a second straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.0.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Subdued Growth in April
U.S. manufacturing growth remained subdued in April as confidence in the outlook hit a ten-month low and prices continued to quickly rise. With that said, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fourth straight month in April at 50.2 signaling a marginal expansion. The latest reading was lower than the 50.7 forecast.
10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: April 2025
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of April 30, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.37%.
Energy Prices Are Not Well Grounded
Many American consumers recently endured their first inflationary cycle, and recent trade headlines have elevated fears of a another bout with higher costs. While not impacted by tariffs, energy markets may play a critical role in driving the price level during the balance of this year.
Three Ways to Avoid the Eye of the Equity Market Storm
With flexibility, humility and disciplined processes, equity investors can find a way forward.
The Supply Chain Has Seen This Before
First, let’s check the market action. Fortunately for stocks, the public has come around to a thesis that the sky is not falling, though there are a ton of market viewers who remain decidedly skeptical that the worst is behind us.
Rare Earth Restrictions
After the U.S. imposed substantial tariffs on China, Beijing responded with tariffs of its own and with restrictions on exports of seven rare earth minerals. The latter action will be a particular hindrance to American manufacturers.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.7% in March
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.6% in March and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.7% month-over-month and up 1.4% year-over-year.
Two Measures of Inflation: March 2025
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.6%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
3 Marketing Tips for Advisors Starting Their Own Firm
Operating as a one-person shop means you’ll wear many hats, but there are common pitfalls you can avoid — and marketing strategies that can help you make the most of your time and resources.
Communicating Through Layoff Woes and Onboarding Surprises
Right now, you don’t want to burn any bridges anywhere, as you don’t know how things will unfold. Be professional and be kind. But you also have every right to set boundaries and to protect yourself!
Chicago PMI Falls for First Time This Year
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for the first time this year. The index dropped to 44.6 this month from 47.6 in March, falling short of the 45.9 forecast. The latest reading marks the 17th consecutive month the index has contracted.
Dominoes: Recessions' History Guide
Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.
Don't Watch "Cash on the Sidelines"
As we have written…The Era of Easy Everything is ending. Part of this involves bringing inflation back to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. We could debate that number, but the Fed is getting closer.
Red Warning Light Blinking in U.S. Treasury Market
While most market watchers have focused on the wildly yo-yoing stock market over the last few weeks, the Treasury bond market has been flashing warnings.
Bitcoin Devotees Plowed $3 Billion Into ETFs Amid Crypto’s Surge
Cryptocurrency investors waded back into the market last week, riding a surge in Bitcoin.
Gold Outperforms... Will that Continue?
There are plenty of frustrated silver bugs. Gold is outperforming once again, and they wonder when silver will finally catch up.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: 3.9% Annual Gain in February
Home prices continued to trend upwards in February as the benchmark national index rose for the 25th consecutive month to a 21st straight record high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.9% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.0% and YoY fell to -0.5%.
The Finance Curse
The sole pursuit of shareholder value — i.e. of maximizing stock price — leads not to a focus on creating the greatest possible value for the firm’s customers, but to a focus on financial metrics and financial engineering.
Critical Minerals Are a US Headache, Not an Emergency
The panic over the years has inevitably influenced policy even if heeding cooler heads would offer reassurance. Which brings us to the current US administration.
The Trials and Tribulations of Trade
American leaders are now engaged in an effort to reverse the loss of manufacturing. The hope is to restore a path to prosperity for struggling regions and their residents. Tariffs are being employed liberally as a means to this end.
Trump’s Golden Dome Could Spark the Biggest Defense Boom in Decades
President Donald Trump’s recent executive order revives many of the SDI’s ambitions, albeit with a modern twist. His January 27 directive launched what he first called an “Iron Dome for America,” later rebranded as the “Golden Dome.”