Commodities

Portfolio Manager Alex Zarechnak identifies six key themes from the COVID years—some new, some familiar—to help anchor investors in today’s emerging markets.

The US debt ceiling negotiations brought considerable volatility to market prices.

The industry group Airlines for America predicts that approximately 257 million people will travel on U.S. commercial airlines this summer, representing a 9.5% increase from last year. That would also set a new record, as volumes are projected to surpass the summer 2019 levels by around 2 million passengers.

“Crisis” is an overused word. Actual crises are those rare times when we are on the knife edge of disaster. It’s not a crisis when a bank fails, or Congress can’t agree on a budget. Those are annoyances (unless it's your bank). While not good, they don’t spell immediate catastrophe.

Structural changes in the world’s energy systems represent significant investment potential across an array of sectors. Analysts on our equity research team offer insights into the impact and opportunities.

Choppiness in the equity market continues as investors look to see a debt limit deal approved.

Because exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer a dynamic product that can serve as a buy-and-hold or buy-and-sell investment, they can offer investors the opportunity to reap long-term or short-term gains. Knowing the difference between the two is crucial, especially when it comes time for taxes.

Inflation is one way the U.K. is paying for leaving Europe.

Humanity is sitting on a time bomb.

The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates, the work from home trend, ESG distractions, increases in crime, etc., are having far reaching effects on our economy and investors.

Inflation has proven sticky, even as growth weakens. Markets are realizing that policy rates are set to stay higher for longer. We like quality in stocks and bonds.

Following OPEC’s surprise production cut in April that saw crude oil squeeze from $65 to $80 per barrel in a manner of days, hedge funds and the like have once again resumed selling on slowing growth and recession fears.

As the debt ceiling fight in Washington heads down to the wire with the risk of a technical default looming, investors are growing nervous.

For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Elle Caruso and Karrie Gordon discussed the pros and cons of investing in fossil fuels.

As other nations seek to become less dependent on the U.S. dollar, rumors of the greenback’s potential demise continue to swirl. Can the dollar remain king of the world’s reserve currency?

The financial markets are giving off mixed signals of late, and credit investors may wonder whether to be downbeat or optimistic.

Swiss money manager Felix Zulauf is a crowd favorite at SIC. His 2022 presentation was right on target, so I asked him back to tell us what he expects for the rest of 2023 and beyond. Unfortunately, he thinks a slowdown is coming that will hit markets hard.

If you were doubting whether the age of AI has arrived, NVIDIA’s stock performance this week may have given you second thoughts.

Last week the VettaFi Voices gathered to reflect on a year at VettaFi under the firm’s new name. The team celebrated wins, and time spent together, and shared their favorite insights and highlights from a busy twelve months.

The semiconductor cycle is dead, long live the super cycle!

Stocks are having a great year, but gold is doing even better. Year-to-date global equities are up roughly 9% in dollar terms; gold has advanced more than 10%.

Most of us spent moments of our childhood, crayon in hand, connecting numbered dots that gradually revealed a picture that we couldn’t deduce simply by looking at the separate dots. With experience, we got better at looking at those isolated dots and mentally connecting them into a coherent “gestalt.”

We prefer private to public credit long term on better return potential. It’s the mirror image in equity: We prefer public stocks as risks fade in the medium term.

One metric I look at fairly often for various countries is the relationship between the performance of stocks vs. bonds. The idea is straightforward enough: when stocks are outperforming bonds, it tends to be associated with a growing economy.

Diversification is a cornerstone of thoughtful, long-term focused investing. Incorporating assets and asset classes that don’t always move in tandem – that is, their returns aren’t strongly correlated – can help temper stock and bond market risk.

Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.

We often talk about technology’s influence on the economy. After the Strategic Investment Conference, though, I’ve decided that isn’t strong enough. It’s more correct to say technology is the economy.

Although attendance was down this year compared to last—mostly because Bitcoin’s price is still off its record high of approximately $69,000, set in November 2021—there was nevertheless an impressive turnout of investors of all ages, industry leaders, policymakers and more.

Here’s what we learned in earnings season about how companies are coping with a particularly tricky set of macroeconomic conditions.

An in-depth analysis of hedge fund performance demonstrates that, over the past 15 years, lower-beta hedge fund styles have generally achieved higher alpha, aligning with investors' objectives of maximizing returns and diversification.

The view by many is that sustainable investing is concessionary in that financial results are forgone in order to achieve sustainable outcomes. Our historical analysis shows that this assertion isn’t true and that unique ESG data can be predictors of company results.

The Federal Reserve’s latest 0.25% interest-rate hike has likely capped one of its most aggressive policy-tightening cycles in 40 years. And the cumulative 5% policy rate increase in just over a year is now starting to have an effect on rate-sensitive sectors and inflation.

The paradox that this marriage potential created at the college was that the odds are good, but the goods are odd. This is the statement that can be made for common stock investing today.

The future of money is uncertain, and speculation about what comes next is all over the place. The Federal Reserve note "dollar" is the world's reserve currency, but its seat on that throne is no longer secure.

If 2022 was the zenith of the post financial crisis bull market, the intervening year and a quarter is a relatively short period from which to conclude that a turn in the secular tide has taken place. That said, several indicators have already begun to signal a change in trend.

We think the U.S. debt limit showdown will spark renewed volatility in markets. That risk reinforces why we stay invested and cautious by going up in quality.

What follows a technical default? We hope we will not need to find out.

Political brinkmanship in Washington adds to concerns about the economy.

It would appear that the decline in European natural gas prices has contributed to an increase in Eurozone GDP estimates for the year. Once prices crossed below $50, GDP estimates began to rise, and now the consensus expects .6% GDP growth from the Eurozone this year.

A wage-price spiral isn't imminent in Europe, but inflation may take a while to descend.

China reported year-over-year inflation last night at just 0.1%, 0.2% lower than expectations. Clearly, China’s reopening is not creating price pressures, which brings the strength of the reopening into question.

We are presented with this decision in finance a lot. There is a small probability of something bad happening and a large probability that everything will be fine. What do you do to insure yourself against something bad happening? Because there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Markets will likely get increasingly unsettled as the X-date approaches without resolution. Congress has about four weeks to hatch a deal. Chief Economist Brian Horrigan looks at five possible scenarios and relates important considerations for each.

The financial media is rife with misinformation on the debt ceiling and the jump in interest rates. However, a history review shows that the “debt-ceiling” issue is not only a non-crisis, but the recent rise in rates is likely an opportunity to buy bonds.

Doug Drabik discusses fixed-income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.

Watching Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger Saturday in Omaha caused us to think about a very popular 1960s TV show called, “The Dating Game.” Hosted by Jim Lange, the game was played with the host on one side of a wall with a male or female contestant.

Financial cracks from rate hikes have led to jitters over commercial real estate. Yet granularity is key. We see opportunities in some U.S. industrial properties.

With regional bank volatility grabbing headlines, CIO Larry Adam looks at what this activity means for the economy and asset classes.