Bloomberg News
Traders See Half-Point Fed Rate Cut Likelier Than Quarter-Point
Bond traders once again see Federal Reserve policymakers as more likely to cut interest rates by a half point than a quarter point at their meeting this week.
Pimco CEO Roman Says Investors Are Piling into Fixed Income
Investors are adding to their fixed income exposure as imminent interest rate cuts create opportunities, according to Emmanuel Roman, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.
BlackRock Warns on Bonds, Saying Fed Rate Bets Are Overdone
BlackRock Inc. strategists turned underweight short-dated US Treasuries from overweight, saying the extent of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts the market is betting on is unlikely to pan out.
The US Is Locked in a State of Debt Denial
Perhaps it’s unsurprising that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are saying nothing about the country’s biggest economic-policy challenge – namely, how to rein in public borrowing. With an election to win, they’d rather emphasize lower taxes and/or higher public spending.
The Fed Should Go Big Now. I Think It Will.
The US Federal Reserve faces a crucial decision at its policy-making meeting this week: Ease off slightly on monetary restraint with a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut, or go for a rare 50-basis-point cut to fend off a recession.
Walmart Has Seized the Baton From Nvidia. What?
Consumer staples are one of the sleepiest sectors of the US stock market. Investors buy them for their low volatility and generous dividends, not exhilarating upside potential. But lately, toothpaste, bleach and certain big-box food retailers seem to be acting like the new semiconductors.
China Bond Yields Sink to Record Low With Intervention in Focus
China’s bond traders defied signs of intervention to push sovereign yields to a record low, setting the stage for a showdown with authorities seeking to tame the blistering debt rally.
The Spirit of Fracking Comes to US Lithium Mining
“Fracking” is an expletive in environmental circles. Yet the spirit of shale is creeping into a business with transformational potential for the energy transition. Schlumberger NV, the industrial giant best known for sucking oil and gas from shale, the seabed (and other places besides), this week announced a breakthrough in direct lithium extraction, or DLE.
Epic Yen Rally Is a Lesson in the Lost Art of FX Intervention
Japan's currency is enjoying an epic rally, heading for the biggest quarterly advance in years. That's quite a shift from a few months ago, when yen bulls were few and far between. Who can claim credit for this turnaround?
OpenAI, Nvidia Executives Discuss AI Infrastructure Needs With Biden Officials
OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman and Nvidia Corp. CEO Jensen Huang met with senior Biden administration officials and other industry leaders at the White House, where they discussed steps to address massive infrastructure needs for artificial intelligence projects.
Single-Stock ETF Boom Intensifies With 18 Bets on Overseas Firms
The single-stock ETF frenzy is going global, with a new bid to launch products that give US traders a way to bet directly on overseas companies — without fretting about currency risk.
The Fed Has No Choice But to Assume the Worst
Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve seemed to have time on its side. Payrolls were growing at a healthy clip and the unemployment rate hovered near a five-decade low. Even though there were signs that inflation was licked, there didn’t appear to be much harm in keeping interest rates elevated for a while longer — just in case.
Hedge Fund Arb Trade Surfs $140 Billion Wave of Debt Coming Due
In a niche corner of the bond market, an almost $140 billion wave of maturing debt is poised to lend momentum to what is already one of Wall Street’s hottest hedge fund trades.
Private Debt Looks for Growth as Traditional Capital Flatlines
Institutional investors, which have traditionally made up private debt’s largest pool of money, are no longer a source of growth for the $1.7 trillion industry.
Gold Climbs to a Record as US Data Bolster Fed Rate Cut Case
Gold climbed to a record after another faster-than-forecast US inflation print and an uptick in applications for unemployment benefits substantiated bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.
Where Money Managers See Dollar Going as Fed Cuts, US Votes
All signs point to a tough few months ahead for investors charting the dollar’s path, after the US presidential debate and a key inflation reading left markets anticipating heightened volatility through year-end.
Powell’s Inertia Leaves the Fed in a Bind After CPI Surprise
In some ways, central banking requires a trader’s instincts. Policymakers need to marry academic rigor with quick reflexes. There is a time for rumination and a time for action.
Big Tech’s Easy Ride Is Coming to an End
Tech companies of a certain size have long expected an easy ride from authorities, and for good reason. They always got it. Apple Inc. for years abused loopholes to pay virtually zero tax in the European Union while generating record profits there, thanks to special treatment from Ireland, where it bases its European headquarters.
Draghi’s Love Letter to Industrial Strategy Risks Heartbreak
Mario Draghi wants Europe to follow the United States and China down the road marked “industrial strategy.” As Europe’s most influential economist — a former head of the European Central Bank, prime minister of Italy and technocrat supreme — Draghi had enormous leeway in preparing his report on European competitiveness.
Wall Street’s Hottest Business Is About to Cool
Banks and shadow banks are meant to exist in separate worlds, but the financial links between them are increasingly seen as a source of potential instability. That’s a problem for banks because the business of forging those ties has lately been among the hottest activities on Wall Street.
US CPI to Show Another Muted Rise as Fed Debates Rate-Cut Size
Forecasters expect a monthly report on US consumer prices to show another month of muted increases, possibly playing into a Federal Reserve debate over how much to cut interest rates.
Goldman’s Kostin Urges Putting Brake on Stock-Index Reshufflings
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has a message for benchmark managers who are weighing big reshufflings of their indexes to account for a handful of stocks growing to interstellar size: slow down.
US Two-Year Yield Falls to Lowest Since 2022 Ahead of CPI Report
US Treasuries rallied ahead of a closely watched inflation reading that could cement bets on the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut this month.
US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Slides to Lowest Since February 2023
US mortgage rates slid last week to the lowest level since February 2023, emboldening homebuyers and spurring a pickup in refinancing applications in welcome news for the real estate market.
State Street, Galaxy Launch Crypto-Linked ETFs Even as Outflows Build
State Street Global Advisors and Galaxy Asset Management are launching a trio of cryptocurrency-focused exchange-traded funds even as investors pull back from spot Bitcoin funds.
The Stocks, Bonds and Currencies Investors Are Watching During the Trump-Harris Debate
Investors weighing election risks ahead of the first US presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are already a lot more jittery than they were before Trump and his onetime opponent, President Joe Biden, met onstage in June.
Apple, Google Lose Multibillion Dollar Court Fights With EU
Apple Inc. lost its court fight over a €13 billion ($14.4 billion) Irish tax bill and Google lost its challenge over a €2.4 billion fine for abusing its market power, in a double boost to the European Union’s crackdown on Big Tech.
Nvidia’s Blackwell Chip Delay Is Center Stage Amid Stock Slump
The next-generation processor was unveiled six months ago, but has faced engineering snags that delayed its release. While Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang tried to reassure the market last month that revenue from the chip is coming soon, some investors were left wanting for details.
Musk’s AI Side Gig Should Keep Its Distance From Tesla
The all-in view of Tesla Inc. was summed up in a line from a report this summer by one of the more all-in analysts covering the company: “The car is to Tesla what the video game chip is to Nvidia.
Big Oil Faces a ‘Good Sweating.’ Some Aren’t Fit
When John D. Rockefeller wanted to punish a rival, he cut prices to force them to operate at a loss. The father of the modern oil industry had a name for it: a “good sweating.” A century later, OPEC+ is giving Big Oil the modern equivalent of Rockefeller’s time-tested tactics. Not everyone will be fit enough for it.
US Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $1.2 Billion in Longest Run of Net Outflows
US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have posted their longest run of daily net outflows since listing at the start of the year, part of a wider retreat from riskier assets in a challenging period for global markets.
The Bond Market Rally Rides on How Fast the Fed Cuts Rates
Bond traders who struggled to predict how high the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates are finding the way down just as vexing.
Oracle Cloud Growth Could Cement Wall Street’s Next AI Favorite
Cloud computing has been one of the first industries to get a demonstrable boost from artificial intelligence. Oracle Corp.’s quarterly results on Monday are likely to extend that trend.
Stock-Selloff Fears for September Are Overblown
The US stock market has given us plenty of real and perceived calendar anomalies to think about. There’s the observed tendency for stocks to experience a “Santa Claus rally” (during the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the next) and the weekend effect (where stocks have a habit of slumping on Mondays).
Americans Have a New Piggy Bank to Raid — Their Houses
American consumers have surprised many economists this year by continuing to spend even as their savings shrink and the labor market cools. They’ve been aided in part by pockets of deflation that have boosted their purchasing power on things such as gasoline, automobiles and airfares.
Summers Says Jobs Weakness Makes It Closer Call on Fed Going 50
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that while the August employment report wasn’t particularly poor, it did make predicting the size of the Federal Reserve’s likely interest-rate cut this month a tougher call.
Amundi Tie-Up Offers US Private Credit to Wealthy Individuals
Amundi SA and First Eagle Investment Management are looking to raise as much as $5 billion for a new private credit strategy that will offer wealthy individuals in Europe, the Middle East and Asia access to private loans made to mid-size US companies.
Nvidia’s $400 Billion Tumble This Week Makes Bitcoin Look Calm
Nvidia Corp. has wiped out more than $400 billion in value this week, weighing on key equity benchmarks as jitters spread over the health of the US economy and an AI trade that may have gotten ahead of itself.
Blue-Chip Company Debt Deluge Hits Record Two-Day Streak
After two days of record sales in the US blue-chip corporate debt market, another 11 companies are looking to sell bonds on Thursday, and demand for the securities is holding strong by key measures.
Voters Love No Tax on Tips, But Split Over $25,000 Housing Help
Former President Donald Trump’s proposals for targeted tax breaks are resonating with battleground-state voters, who overwhelmingly approve of his ideas to eliminate taxes on tipped income and retirement benefits.
Big Fed Rate Cuts Are Needed for the Young and the Jobless
Despite what you may have heard from the doomers, the US labor market is hardly falling apart at the seams. Layoffs are still extraordinarily low and a report Friday showed that the overall unemployment rate slipped to just 4.2%.
OPEC+ Kicks the Can Down a Very Uphill Road
OPEC+ is like a teabag – it only works in hot water. The late Robert Mabro, one of the savviest oil-market observers, liked to say the cartel only got the job done when it was under prolonged financial pain. To judge by its latest actions, OPEC+ has yet to realize it’s inside a warming kettle.
US Job Growth Comes Up Short in Possible Warning Sign for Fed
US hiring fell short of forecasts in August after downward revisions to the prior two months, a development likely to fuel ongoing debate over how much the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates.
Traders Add to Bets on Jumbo Fed Cuts as Data Fuels Bond Rally
US Treasuries gained and traders ramped up their bets that the Federal Reserve will opt for a supersized interest-rate cut this month after a mixed report on the US labor market.
BlackRock Dials Back Risk Across $131 Billion Model Portfolios
The world’s biggest asset manager is taking some chips off the table as markets enter a “new phase” of turbulence ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate cutting cycle and the US presidential election.
S&P 500 Earnings Hinge on Trump, Harris Tax Plans, Goldman Says
Tax policies touted in the US presidential election could have a big impact on S&P 500 earnings, according to Goldman Sachs Inc. strategists.
Wall Street’s Big Bet on Jumbo Fed Cuts Hangs on US Jobs Report
The bold bet from the likes of Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by a half-percentage-point this month faces its biggest test yet from Friday’s US jobs report.
American Drivers Signal a Top in Gasoline Demand
Labor Day weekend, marking the end of the US summer driving season, is typically the year’s last hurrah for gasoline producers. This year, the high-fives were reserved for drivers (and White House occupants): The average pre-long weekend pump price was down 13% from last year after gasoline refining margins collapsed in August. Pump prices have eased further this week.
Jane Street and Citadel Won’t Devour All of Wall Street’s Revenue
Jane Street Group LLC and Citadel Securities are on a tear. First-half revenue at the two predominantly electronic market makers grew about 80% compared with the first six months of 2023, according to Bloomberg News. That’s enough to make traditional Wall Street executives green with envy — but these upstarts aren’t going to completely devour the old guards’ lunch.
US Yield Curve Disinverts as Soft Labor Data Fuels Fed Cut Bets
A key segment of the US Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive as weaker-than-anticipated labor-market data bolstered bets on steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Would-Be Corporate Dip Buyers Armed With Fresh $107 Billion
Equity bulls looking for signs of relief after Tuesday’s stock rout may get a hand from a familiar friend: corporate America.
Bond Volatility in US Eclipses Europe as Recession Angst Rises
Bond traders are bracing for wilder market swings in the US than in Europe, as signs the world’s largest economy is faltering fuel bets on a jumbo interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Nvidia Rout Has Traders Watching $100-Share Level Amid ‘Vacuum’
The sharp selloff that wiped a record $279 billion off Nvidia Corp.’s market value on Tuesday has traders scouring charts for clues as to where the pain might end.
The Fed Is Containing Yuan Bears. That’s Ironic
After a bruising few years, Asian currencies have suddenly become fashionable again. But this enthusiasm is dependent on words and deeds far away. The direction of global markets is driven overwhelmingly by the US. For now, that means interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
AI Culture Will Be Weirder Than You Can Imagine
There are two radically different visions of our AI future, and they depend on the cost of energy.
Cliff Asness Is ‘Old Man Whinging’ as Markets Get Less Efficient
Cliff Asness says he sounds like an “old man whinging,” but that’s not stopping him from writing 23 pages on his latest thesis: Financial markets these days aren’t what they were.
Shorts Are Circling Some of the AI Boom’s Biggest Question Marks
It’s the story of so many stock market manias: A transformative technology juices a few companies, a bunch of more questionable outfits follow in their wake, and Wall Street buys it all. Then time sorts out what’s real from fake.
Apple Rally Fueled by AI Promises Approaches a Crucial Test
Apple Inc.’s upcoming iPhone release has sent its stock price soaring because of promised artificial-intelligence features. Those gains appear vulnerable, at least in the short term, if history is any guide.
Wall Street Strategists Face Their Own Short Squeeze
Since the pandemic, Wall Street strategists have repeatedly underestimated the performance of the US stock market in their annual projections, leading to a mad dash to boost their outlooks in the back end of the year.
Yes, Let’s Reverse Brexit (a Bit) for Gen Z
What’s the point of Keir Starmer’s massive electoral majority if he remains hesitant to do something for young people on Brexit that’s not just compassionate and sensible, but also very popular?
BLS Data Slipups Are Becoming a Pattern
This can’t keep happening. With trust in government already ebbing, there’s yet one more reason to question the integrity of the office that distributes key data about jobs and prices. The problems at the Bureau of Labor Statistics need to be addressed quickly for the good of financial markets, the economy and public confidence in the state.
King Dollar's Softening Is Good News for Nearly Everyone
Has the tide turned decisively against King Dollar? A fall of around 5% in the greenback versus major currencies in the past two months, pushing the dollar index to a 13-month low, suggests its post-pandemic surge has meaningfully faltered.
Swap Bonds for Commodities in 60/40 Funds, BofA Strategists Say
Investors pursuing widely followed 60/40 strategies should consider swapping out bonds for commodities, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp.
Fed Favored Inflation Gauge’s Mild Gain Sets Stage for Rate Cut
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation rose at a mild pace and household spending picked up in July, reinforcing policymakers’ plan to start cutting interest rates next month.
What Jack Nicholson Knew About Forecasting Errors
Forecasting anything, let alone something as complicated as the economy, is fraught. Stretches of decent growth and low inflation that look, in retrospect, like happy days, can be upended by unforeseen events. Covid, the descent into recession and the sharp rebound are just a few examples. Errors, unfortunately, are an unavoidable part of trying to map the future.
Nvidia Investors Must Remember — Hardware Is Hard
There’s an adage in Silicon Valley: Hardware is hard. And expensive. And time-consuming. That’s the case even when you’re a company that’s really good at it — like Nvidia Corp., whose market value has grown to $3 trillion thanks to its extraordinary prowess in the trickiest hardware challenge today: building cutting-edge chips for artificial intelligence.
Nvidia Discusses Joining OpenAI’s Latest Funding Round
Nvidia Corp., the world’s biggest chipmaker, has discussed joining a funding round for OpenAI that would value the artificial intelligence startup at more than $100 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
One-Day-Only Funds Are Jack Bogle’s Nightmare Brought to Life
The late Jack Bogle — father of the first index fund — famously loathed their exchange-traded offspring, warning that it only incentivize speculative trading among “fruitcakes, nut cases and lunatic fringe.” Fast forward to 2024, and critics warn a new generation of ETFs are designed to do exactly that.
The Fed Is No Longer the Only Game in Town
Last week’s meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole was a kind of victory lap for the Fed. It may have also marked the peak of its power.
Fed Rate Cuts Are No Magic Fix for Anemic Hiring
Chair Jerome Powell cemented a shift in focus from inflation to employment last week when he said that the Federal Reserve does not seek a further cooling in the labor market. It was a welcome message for those concerned about an economic slowdown. But there are reasons to expect today’s sluggish hiring environment to persist at least into early next year, frustrating job seekers and policymakers alike.
Treasury Yields Rise After Resilient Data Suggests Measured Fed
US Treasury yields edged higher after resilient economic reports prompted traders to slightly trim their expectations for the scope of Federal Reserve easing this year.
Nvidia Pays Price of Lofty Expectations, Stoking Fear for Rivals
Nvidia Corp.’s earnings report needed to be perfect for a stock that’s added nearly $2 trillion in market value in the past year. In the end, a broad beat still sparked a selloff.
With AI Story Intact and Rate Cuts Imminent, Markets Turn Higher
Nvidia Corp.’s earnings report was impressive by virtually any metric — except its own recent history.
Nvidia Tumbles After Disappointing Forecast, Blackwell Chip Snags
Nvidia Corp. failed to live up to investor hopes with its latest results on Wednesday, delivering an underwhelming forecast and news of production snags with its much-awaited Blackwell chips.
Big Tech Dominance Is Forcing Index Superpowers to Rethink Rules
The Big Tech boom is causing headaches for all-powerful index providers on Wall Street, who can send billions of benchmark-tracking dollars on the move with just a stroke of the pen.
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Tops $1 Trillion in Market Value
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. became the first US company outside of the tech sector to surpass $1 trillion in market value.
Why the Fed Shouldn’t Stop Worrying About Inflation
At the recent central-bank symposium at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a widely expected message on interest rates: “The time has come for policy to adjust.” He all but confirmed that the Fed would cut rates by at least a quarter-point when its policymakers next meet in September.
Nvidia’s Earnings Will Test the S&P 500’s $4 Trillion Recovery
The almost $3 trillion rally in Nvidia Corp. shares over the roughly two years since ChatGPT’s unveiling has virtually rewired the US stock market, giving the artificial intelligence chipmaking giant an outsized influence on a bevy of equity indexes.
Fed Embraces Gradualism, a Familiar Policy for Uncertain Times
With a September interest-rate cut all but certain and attention turning to the pace of future reductions, Federal Reserve officials are coalescing around a gradual approach to the last mile of their inflation fight.
NFL Owners Set to Vote on Letting Private Equity Invest in Teams
NFL owners are set to vote on selling stakes in their franchises to private equity, potentially joining a shift by professional sports leagues to attract institutional investors.
California’s EV Dreams Face an Awkward Reality
California wants some insurance against pump prices. But in proposing that oil companies there hold a minimum stockpile of fuels, the state is also, and less obviously, seeking insurance against the complications of its own energy policies. In seeking to kill off gasoline demand but ensure suppliers stay engaged for years to come, the state is confronting one of the central challenges of the energy transition.
When Did the Great Stagnation Actually Begin?
“What happened in 1971?” It is one of the most important and debated questions in US economic history, and new research suggests that the answer may be lurking a few decades earlier — in 1948, to be precise.
Global Money Piles Into Indonesia as Fed Easing Cycle Approaches
Global money has flooded into Indonesia’s financial markets this month, signaling the country’s assets have quickly become a preferred investment destination as the US Federal Reserve’s easing cycle nears.
‘T-Bill and Chill’ Is a Hard Habit for Investors to Break
It’s been the ultimate no-brainer for more than a year: Park your money in super-safe Treasury bills, earn yields of more than 5%, rinse and repeat. Or as billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach put it last October, “T-bill and chill.”
Nvidia to Keep Surfing Tech Spending Wave: Earnings Week Ahead
Expectations heading into Nvidia Corp.’s Wednesday report are high, with analysts anticipating another strong consensus beat that could prompt the chipmaker to raise its profit guidance.
Powell Ignored the Elephant in the Fed’s Jackson Hole Lodge Jonathan Levin
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday removed all doubt that interest rate cuts are just around the corner. “The time has come for policy to adjust,” he said at his much-hyped annual speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, setting off a knee-jerk rally in stocks and bonds.
AI Giants Can Learn a Thing or Two From Mark Zuckerberg
Mark Zuckerberg may have a history of copying of others’ ideas, but when it comes to navigating the generative AI hype cycle, he’s the one forging a smarter path.
Fed Criticism Is Cheap, and It’s Mostly Mistaken
I have listened to people bellyache about the Federal Reserve my entire adult life: Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates too much after the dot-com crash in 2000. Ben Bernanke printed too much money to bail out banks during the 2008 financial crisis.
Trump’s ‘Made in USA’ Bitcoin Threatens China Juggernaut Bitmain’s Reign
For years, a Chinese company has dominated one of the most lucrative corners of the cryptocurrency universe. Rising political tensions, and the prospect of Donald Trump retaking the White House, pose an unprecedented threat to that reign.
Dollar Slumps After Powell Touts Case for Interest-Rate Cuts
The dollar plunged after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirmed expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates next month, sparking a rally in the currencies of major global peers.
‘It’s Just Atrocious’: Jobs Snafu Stokes Fury on Wall Street
There’s no shortage of market-moving events on the docket to keep Wall Street busy right now.
Tesla’s Steep Price Cuts Help Get the Used EV Market Humming
Since early last year, the cars rolling off Tesla Inc.’s California assembly lines have been selling for steadily lower prices. This has had a happy knock-on effect on a car lot just across the freeway from the company’s San Francisco Bay area factory.
Countries Risk Overestimating Debt Capacity, Jackson Hole Paper Shows
Governments in the US and other developed countries, thanks to their central banks, may be deluded over how much debt they can pile up without significantly raising their costs to borrow.
Oaktree Plans to Seek Partner for 3,800 Home Project in Dublin
An Oaktree Capital Management LP venture plans to seek an equity partner to help develop a Dublin project that’s expected to be valued at billions of euro when it’s completed, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Treasuries Rally as Powell Locks in Bets on a September Rate Cut
Treasuries rallied after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole cemented expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates next month.
Powell Says ‘Time Has Come’ for Fed to Cut Interest Rates
Chair Jerome Powell said the time has come for the Federal Reserve to cut its key policy rate, affirming expectations that officials will begin lowering borrowing costs next month and making clear his intention to prevent further cooling in the labor market.
Private Credit Loses Ground in Fight for Family Office Money
It’s the hottest trade on Wall Street. Everywhere you turn, money managers have upped their investments in private credit, helping the asset class balloon into a $1.7 trillion industry. But there’s one group where interest appears to already be waning — the family office.
Economists See Faster Labor Cooling, Steeper Fed Cuts in Survey
A labor market softening more so than previously thought should spur faster and steeper interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists.
Is Elon Musk the Bankers’ Moby Dick? Not Yet
Call me Ishmael. The biggest question about an investment banking client like Elon Musk is whether he turns out to be a Moby Dick.
Apple and Alphabet’s Freakish Earnings Broke This Market Barometer
One of the most widely followed gauges of the stock market, for decades a reliable indicator of future returns, has led investors astray in recent years. Its misdirection comes down to the freakish earnings growth of big technology companies such as Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc.
Meta Shares Are Flying High as Zuckerberg Sells His AI Vision
Technology giants that want to spend big on artificial intelligence and stay in the good graces of investors should take a page out of Meta Platforms Inc.’s playbook.
EM Stocks Getting Cheaper as Investors Cool to Analyst Optimism
Emerging-market stocks are trading at the steepest discount to US equities since the Covid-19 panic in March 2020 as skittish investors look elsewhere for growth opportunities.
Euro Rally Risks Being Abruptly Cut Short by Jerome Powell
The euro’s August gains have been relentless, taking it to a one year high against the dollar on Wednesday, but a cautious tone from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday could turn that momentum around.
Powell Confronts Policy Crossroads With All Eyes on Jackson Hole
Chair Jerome Powell will usher in the next chapter in the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle on Friday, when he’s expected to set the table for an interest-rate cut while reassuring investors that policymakers can stave off a sharp economic slowdown.
Homes Will Be Affordable Again – Just Not Anytime Soon
The worst of the housing affordability crisis is behind us. But the past two years have shown that housing isn’t a bubble that is likely to pop overnight, nor can prices be forced lower in the short term with government intervention. Rising incomes, falling mortgage rates, more construction and thoughtful policy will slowly chip away at the affordability problem.
Bond Traders Amassing Historic Level of Risk on Rate-Cut Bets
Bond traders are taking on a record amount of risk as they bet big on a Treasury market rally fueled by expectations the Federal Reserve will embark on its first interest-rate cut in more than four years.
Nvidia Eyes Return to Record as AI Spending Bonanza Continues
With questions swirling around Federal Reserve policy, the state of the economy and the US presidential race, at least one thing seems clear on Wall Street: spending on artificial intelligence remains a central priority.
Asset Managers Must Invest in Private Markets Now, Bain Says
A wide variety of asset managers need to look at investing in private markets if they want to avoid wipe-out, while revamping their entire strategies to ride the wave, according to Bain & Co.
Fed Confronts Up to a Million US Jobs Vanishing in Revision
US job growth in the year through March was likely far less robust than initially estimated, which risks fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve is falling further behind the curve to lower interest rates.
Citi Says Hedge Funds Are Using Dollars for New Carry Trades
Citigroup Inc. says the carry trade is back, but with a key difference: hedge funds are borrowing US dollars rather than the yen for their wagers on emerging markets.
Amazon’s AI Spending Plans Keep Stock From Joining Tech Rebound
More than any of the megacap technology stocks, Amazon.com Inc.’s big spending ways are coming at the expense of profits, and its shares are being punished as a result.
Welcome to the End of the Biggest Commodity Boom
Oil, copper, soybeans and a handful of others monopolized the attention — but of all commodities, the humble lump of iron ore benefited the most from the Chinese economic boom of the last 25 years.
JPMorgan, Aviva Shrug Off EM Rout on Bet for Soft US Landing
Investors including JPMorgan Asset Management, M&G Investments and Aviva Investors say they seized on the retreat in riskier assets at the start of the month to bolster their holdings of emerging-market bonds.
As Tech Stocks Rebound, High Hedging Costs Indicate Skepticism
The recent rebound in US tech stocks isn’t convincing options traders just yet.
The Stakes Are High for Powell and the Fed at Jackson Hole
This year’s presentation by Chair Jerome Powell is eagerly awaited due to the economic fluidity and financial volatility that the US has been experiencing, and its spillovers to the rest of the world.
How the Treasury Is More Powerful Than the Fed
Decisions made by the Treasury get much less attention than those made by the Federal Reserve, but they can be even more consequential for interest rates — and the entire US economy.
Global Bond Traders Are Seeking Protection From Inflation Threat
Just as bond traders grow more assured that inflation is finally under control, a camp of investors is quietly building up protection against the risk of a future spike in prices.
Texas Instruments Wins $4.6 Billion in Chips Act Grants, Loans
Texas Instruments Inc. is set to receive $1.6 billion in Chips Act grants and $3 billion in loans, the Biden administration announced Friday, marking the latest major award from a program designed to boost American semiconductor manufacturing.
Tech Rally Propels Emerging Stocks to Best Week in Four Months
Emerging-market stocks rallied on Friday, driven by tech companies in Asia, following US data which boosted investor optimism that the world’s biggest economy will avoid a recession.
Oil’s AI Hedge Works, Just Don’t Mention a Recession
Earlier this year, around the time Nvidia Corp.’s market cap eclipsed that of the entire S&P 500 energy sector, I wrote about whether oil and gas stocks might offer a decent hedge when AI-fever breaks. The past several weeks have offered a test.
New US Home Construction Falls to Slowest Pace Since May 2020
New-home construction in the US fell in July to the lowest level since the aftermath of the pandemic as builders respond to weak demand that’s keeping inventory levels high.
We Need to Talk About Taxes
At the end of next year, most of the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 are set to expire. If nothing is done, taxes will go up. Both presidential contenders say they won’t let this happen and have promised to extend many or most of the law’s changes.
BlackRock Says Blended Finance at ‘Turning Point’ as Deals Grow
BlackRock Inc. says the market for blended finance has now reached a “turning point,” as it targets growth in deals that combine private and public funding.
Wall Street Just Got Its Most Volatile ETF as Risky Bets Boom
In a part of the US market for exchange-traded funds that has become known for increasingly risky products, a new offering has debuted that stands out in the crowd.
Carry Trade That Blew Up Markets Is Attracting Hedge Funds Again
A popular yen-centered carry trade that blew up spectacularly two weeks ago is staging a comeback.
Five Big Questions for the Fed at Jackson Hole
When US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at next week’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, people will be listening intently for any hint about what the central bank will do with interest rates at its September policy making meeting.
Walmart Shoppers Explain State of the US Economy
If rising layoffs and weakening consumption are going to snowball into a US recession at some point, my interpretation is that the mass of macroeconomic ice crystals is still only about the size of a marble.
Alphabet Shares Face Months of Uncertainty on New Breakup Risk
Alphabet Inc. investors are facing a long period of uncertainty as they grapple with a scenario they previously saw as unlikely: a possible breakup of Google.
Soros, Druckenmiller Pared Megacap Holdings Ahead of Summer Rout
George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller’s investment firms trimmed their holdings in “Magnificent Seven” stocks before this year’s ebullient run-up in technology companies gave way to a major downturn in mid-July.
Is Private Equity a Threat? We Need a Better Answer
Is private equity a problem? To what extent could this class of investment funds, which manages almost $9 trillion worldwide on behalf of everyone from wealthy individuals to California teachers, cause or propagate the next financial crisis?
The Market May Be Too Aggressive on Fed Rate Cuts
The inflation numbers this week — both for producer and consumer prices — have served to reassure markets in two distinct ways: confirming continued progress in the battle against high price increases and supporting the ongoing shift in the Federal Reserve’s focus from its inflation mandate to its employment mandate.
Buffett’s Apple Sale Brings Value Back to Quality Investing
Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner Charlie Munger brought quality to value investing. Now Buffett is bringing value to quality investing.
Bond Traders Trim Bets on Fed Rate Cuts After Inflation Data
Bond investors pared back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts slightly as data showed US inflation ebbed further in July, reinforcing the case for a quarter-point reduction next month.
Receding AI Stock Euphoria Has Bulls Seeing Some Opportunities
Skeptics had long warned that artificial intelligence-related stocks were in a bubble. Now that some of the froth has come off, bulls see an opportunity.
US Considers a Rare Antitrust Move: Breaking Up Google
A bid to break up Alphabet Inc.’s Google is one of the options being considered by the Justice Department after a landmark court ruling found that the company monopolized the online search market, according to people with knowledge of the deliberations.
UBS’ Yard Sale Is the Star of Its Earnings Show
A year after UBS Group AG completed its emergency takeover of failing rival Credit Suisse, the project is faring better than the Swiss bank dared hope. It’s cut unwanted assets, people and costs faster than it promised — enabling it to deliver forecast-beating profits so far in 2024.
A Break in the Weather: Good News From the World’s Farms
The headlines suggest catastrophe for the global food supply: Biblical heatwaves, floods, storms and wildfires. And yet, in the world’s breadbaskets, the weather has been fair this growing season — so good that we’re facing an oversupply of key agricultural commodities and thus much lower prices than in 2022 and 2023.
There’s Something Fishy About Insiders’ ‘Other’ Trades
Regulators and investors have always had a keen interest in the trades that corporates executives and board members make in their companies’ own shares. The government has to look out for the integrity of financial markets, of course, while investors are eager to ride insiders’ coattails. Unfortunately, it’s never been easy to read the insider tea leaves.
Dimon Says He’s Skeptical Inflation Will Return to Fed’s 2% Target
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said he’s skeptical that inflation will return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, citing risks including deficit spending and “remilitarization of the world.”
US Producer Prices Rise Less Than Forecast, Dragged by Services
US producer prices rose in July by less than forecast, reflecting the first decline in services costs this year amid an ongoing moderation in inflationary pressures.
How Big Is the Yen Carry Trade, Really?
When two popular trades, such as buying US big tech stocks and selling the Japanese yen, are unraveling at the same time, investors naturally think they are somehow related.
Interest-Rate Cuts Rely on Inconvenient Truths About Inflation
The tricky last yards of closing in on — and then maintaining — the hallowed 2% inflation target that all the major central banks adhere to requires a change of tactics. Over the past two years, a mantra of economic data-dependency has been drummed into us, keeping interest rates higher for longer.
Emerging Stocks, Currencies Diverge as Markets Price Fed Easing
The benchmark indexes for emerging-market equities and currencies, respectively, moved in opposite directions Monday, deepening a trend that emerged last week, when their short-term correlation was interrupted for the first time in 21 years.
Apple and Alphabet’s Freakish Earnings Broke This Market Barometer
One of the most widely followed gauges of the stock market, for decades a reliable indicator of future returns, has led investors astray in recent years. Its misdirection comes down to the freakish earnings growth of big technology companies such as Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc. But there’s a way to revamp this market barometer as worries about elevated expectations and prices grow.
The Fed Is Too Late to Save the Housing Market This Year
The recent decline in mortgage rates on stronger evidence that the Federal Reserve is poised to ease policy has fueled hopes of better times ahead for companies tied to the housing market. That’s likely true, but the evidence of the past few weeks suggests it’s already too late for a revival this year.
Private Credit Enters Risky Terrain With Huge Bets on Consumers
First the private credit firms came for the banking industry’s lucrative corporate loan business. Now they’re grabbing a chunk of their consumer-lending work. The pressing question for this thriving multi-trillion dollar industry is whether it has timed its latest incursion badly.
Big Tech, Health-Care and High-Yield Stocks Are Dip-Buying Targets
A dizzying start to August, which saw US stocks whiplashed by economic jitters, lackluster earnings and the unwinding of the global yen carry trade, has left Wall Street searching for corners of the market that may have been unfairly punished.
Emerging-Market Currencies Gain, Set for Best Week of 2024
Emerging-market currencies are set to clock their biggest weekly gains of 2024, led by a rise in Brazil’s real on expectations its central bank could raise interest rates later this year.
With US Chips Act Money Mostly Divvied Up, the Real Test Begins
The Biden administration is nearly finished divvying up $39 billion in grants under the Chips and Science Act, the landmark bipartisan legislation aimed at revitalizing the domestic semiconductor industry. The bigger test still lies ahead.
Buffett’s Apple Share Dump Is Set to Reshape Major Stock Gauges
Warren Buffett’s sudden sale of a huge pile of Apple Inc. shares has come with a surprise silver lining for investors in the iPhone maker: Its influence in major stock indexes is set to be fully unleashed.
The S&P Always Looks Good Next to European Stocks
When markets gyrated at the turn of the month, US and Japanese stocks had the cushion of an earlier surge to fall back on. In Europe, the rout hit share prices that had been weakening since May. An earnings season dominated by pessimism from many of the region’s bosses has vindicated investors’ caution.
Fed Seen Rejecting Calls for Jumbo Rate Cut in Economist Survey
A large majority of economists surveyed see only a quarter-point decrease in interest rates coming in September — a finding that’s at odds with calls from some large Wall Street banks for a jumbo cut at the next meeting.
Investor Behind Record $2.7 Billion Bond Bet Says Recession Near
Back in June, a mystery investor made a record wager on long-dated Treasuries, creating waves in the ETF market where trading pros seek clues about sentiment on Wall Street. Now the firm behind that bet has revealed itself, and says its recession call is finally coming to fruition.
Nvidia Value Takes $900 Billion Hit Even as AI Spending Ramps Up
On the surface, Nvidia Corp.’s $900 billion selloff since its June record would suggest the artificial intelligence spending boom that propelled it there is cooling. But the undercurrents tell a far less dire story.
Steven Mnuchin Says It’s Time to Kill the New Treasury Bond He Created
It only takes a quick glance at the US bond curve to realize something is off. One Treasury security — the 20-year — is detached from the rest of the market. It hovers at yields that are far higher than those on the bonds surrounding it — the 10-year and the 30-year.
Gig Economy Emerges as a Bright Spot Amid Gloomy Tech Earnings
It has been a tough earnings season for the technology industry, and markets more broadly.
How Much Should Stocks Correct? Less Than You May Think
The stock selloff of the past month is forcing investors to think about whether the market remains too high, and if so, how far it might fall.
The Fed’s Wild Ride Has Just Begun
Has the US Federal Reserve gone too far in its fight against inflation, tipping the world’s largest economy into a damaging recession?
Beware the Bombs Baked Into Modern Stock Markets
Investor complacency is often blamed when rising stock markets ignore potentially unsettling data for weeks and then viciously sell off. But this very human-sounding characteristic mostly isn’t in the minds of traders: It’s baked into the structure of modern investment strategies.
Corporate America Stampedes Into Debt as Sales Pass $1 Trillion
Corporate borrowers are selling investment-grade bonds at the fastest clip since 2020 as companies take advantage of lower yields to issue debt before the November election.
The Fed Should Resist Placating Markets
Family Feud, a popular game show when I was growing up, would ask contestants to guess how a group of people had answered a specific question. It served as a regular and early reminder for me of the importance of supplementing one’s thinking with external perspectives.
A Recession Wouldn’t Be So Bad This Time
Turmoil in the markets has renewed fears that the US did not escape history after all, that a hard landing — a recession — is coming. Whether this is all a blip from a rising yen or a justified reaction to an actual weakening of the US economy is still unknowable.
America’s Debt Crisis Is Getting Too Big to Solve
Fiscal conservatism has more or less vanished from America’s political landscape. Government borrowing, despite the strong economy, continues to push public debt to record levels – and the presidential contenders and their parties say scarcely a word about it.
Big Tech Traders Struggle to Find Reasons to Buy This Dip
For months investors have faced a dilemma — pay through the nose for technology giants trading at eye-watering multiples, or wait for a cheaper entry point and risk missing out on the year’s biggest bull run.
Goldman Says Buying S&P After 5% Drop Is Usually Profitable
Buying US stocks after a slump of the scale witnessed over the past month has usually been profitable, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysis of four decades of data.
Treasury Rally Ignites Debate on How Fast Fed Needs to Cut
A major rally in the $27 trillion Treasury market is laying bare anxiety that the US economy is sliding into recession and the Federal Reserve will need to start aggressively cutting interest rates.
The Fed Should Cut Rates Swiftly — Recession or Not
Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report has sparked a robust debate about whether the economy is sliding into recession or whether the rise in the unemployment rate in July was due to a continuing post-pandemic normalization of the labor market.
Buffett's $277 Billion Cash Hoard After Selling Apple Is a Warning
Warren Buffett has been selling a lot of stock, and that revelation is inducing his many admirers to follow suit. His Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., reported Saturday that it reduced several positions and slashed its stake in top-holding Apple Inc., a sign to some in markets that the “Oracle of Omaha” was bracing for deep stock-market declines.
Nasdaq 100 Futures Indicate Gauge’s Worst Open in Four Years
The Nasdaq 100 is set for its biggest opening drop in more than four years, with investors bracing for days of volatility amid rising concerns over a slowing US economy and overheated gains in the tech sector.
Global Bond Rally Accelerates as Market Bets on Big Rate Cuts
Global bonds rallied as traders bet the Federal Reserve and fellow central banks will turn more aggressive in cutting interest rates amid mounting concern that economic growth is faltering at a faster pace than expected just weeks ago.
Wall Street’s Bears Warn on Risks to Stocks From Slowing Economy
The US stock plunge is vindicating some of Wall Street’s most prominent bears, who are doubling down with warnings about risks from an economic slowdown.
An Emergency Fed Rate Cut Would Be A Mistake
With stock markets plunging around the world, traders are talking up the prospect of an emergency interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve after the US central bank passed up the opportunity to ease policy last week. Not only is this highly unlikely, it would be counterproductive.
Bitcoin Plunges, Ether Has Worst Drop Since 2021 as Crypto Sinks
Cryptocurrencies reeled from a bout of risk aversion in global markets on Monday, at one point sending Bitcoin down more than 16% and saddling second-ranked Ether with the steepest fall since 2021.
Bezos’ Wealth Drops by $21 Billion as Amazon Sinks on AI Fears
Jeff Bezos’ wealth slumped by more than $21 billion after Amazon.com Inc. said it planned to continue spending big on artificial intelligence even at the expense of short-term profits.
Munis Extend Rally as Jobs Miss Cements Path to Fed Rate Cut
Municipal bonds extended their rally on Friday after a lackluster jobs number cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates by the end of its next meeting in September.
JPMorgan, Citi See Fed Dealing Two Half-Point Rate Cuts in 2024
Wall Street banks are calling for aggressive interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve based on the latest evidence that the labor market is cooling.
Jobs Report Should Put a Jumbo Fed Rate Cut on the Table
In markets and economics, you sometimes have to hold two thoughts in your head simultaneously — an important lesson on a day in which the US unemployment rate unexpectedly surged to its highest in nearly three years.
Even Convertible Arbitrageurs Are Abandoning China
Global investors are gobbling up bonds that can be turned into stocks, feeling good about the prospects and return potentials of smaller companies.
A $1 Trillion Time Bomb Is Ticking in the Housing Market
Cassandras seldom get opportunities to be right about two disasters. Even the original Cassandra scored no notable victories after predicting the fall of Troy. But when a seer who successfully called one catastrophe warns of another coming, you might want to listen.
Big Tech Fails to Convince Wall Street That AI Is Paying Off
Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. had one job heading into this earnings season: show that the billions of dollars they’ve each sunk into the infrastructure propelling the artificial intelligence boom is translating into real sales.
Bonds Surge After Soft Jobs Data Raises Pressure on Fed to Cut
The bond-market rally escalated Friday after a report showed that job growth slowed sharply last month, further stoking speculation that the Federal Reserve will start aggressively cutting interest rates to keep the economy from stalling.
Nasdaq 100 Is in Correction Territory With AI Darlings Sinking
The violent rotation from Big Tech plunged the Nasdaq 100 Index into correction territory, wiping out more than $2 trillion in value in just over three weeks, as traders unwound bets that had been minting money for over a year.
Power Plants’ 833% Windfall May Unleash a Political Firestorm
A fifth of Americans are on the hook for an 833% jump in the cost to ensure the lights stay on. The folks being paid that premium, mostly electricity generators in this instance, face that most welcome of problems: What to do with a windfall.
Roubini Confuses Yellen’s Pragmatism for Treasury Activism
Economists Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini are making waves by suggesting in a paper published last week that the Treasury Department has actively engineered easier financial conditions by increasing the issuance of short-term bills and, consequently, reducing the share of longer-term notes and bonds, thereby keeping yields lower than they would otherwise be.
Fed on Course for September Rate Cut as Risks to Job Market Grow
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled central bank officials are on course to cut interest rates in September unless inflation progress stalls, citing risks of further labor-market weakening.
Nvidia Adds Record $329 Billion in Value as Volatility Soars
Nvidia Corp.’s wild ride this week is headed for the record books.
US Job Market’s Pandemic Unwind Puts Recession Signals to Test
Predicting a labor-market downturn was never an easy task. But unique post-pandemic dynamics are making it even harder for economists to determine whether a recent uptick in the unemployment rate is signaling trouble ahead.
US Hiring and Wage Growth Both Slowed in ADP July Data
US companies added the fewest number of workers since the start of the year and wage growth slowed, consistent with signs of a softer labor demand.
Pension Funds Are Hooked on Private Equity, No Matter the Risks
Private equity has been in the news frequently in the last few weeks, and not in a good way.
Trump Likes the Idea of a Federal Bitcoin Reserve. Don’t Laugh
Which financial assets a central bank should buy and sell is hardly a novel question. Historically, the US Federal Reserve has focused on shorter-term Treasury securities, but quantitative easing had the Fed buying mortgage securities and quality commercial paper in significant quantities. More generally, central banks often hold gold and foreign currencies.
US Plans to Hold Note, Bond Sales Steady for ‘Several Quarters’
The US Treasury left its quarterly issuance of longer-term debt unchanged for the second straight time, and maintained its guidance that it doesn’t expect to need increasing issuance of notes and bonds for “several quarters.”
History Favors Stock and Bond Bulls Alike When the FOMC Meets
History is on the side of stock and bond bulls as Federal Reserve officials kick off a two-day policy meeting.
Ackman-Backed Tech Founder Tries to Fulfill His ‘Berkshire 2.0’ Promise
Canadian entrepreneur Andrew Wilkinson’s early decision to ditch a career as a journalist and teach himself web design has proved lucrative, making him the majority owner of a technology investment firm worth more than $300 million.
Will Investors Get Good AI News This Week? Don’t Bet on It
Unfortunately, investors have little else to work with given the table scraps of useful data being offered by the tech giants. None of the top companies have yet adequately spelled out the financial performance of AI adoption on their income statements.
Even Boom Economies Can Use a Break. Ask South Korea
For South Korea’s economy, it’s not quite a case of first in, first out. But it could be close: Despite some bullish growth forecasts, interest-rate cuts are coming.
Fed’s First Cut Shouldn’t Tie It Down
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently testified that he’d like to see more good news on inflation before cutting interest rates. He got what he asked for.
Big Business Signals to Fed It’s Either Rate Cuts or Job Cuts
When the Federal Reserve signals the likely path of monetary policy to investors this week, including an anticipated start to interest rate cuts in September, it can no longer be complacent about the labor market.
Goldman Sachs Makes Bigger Bet on $129 Billion Muni ETF Market
Goldman Sachs Asset Management is launching four new municipal-bond exchange-traded funds, adding to the $129 billion corner of the state and local government debt market.
Google’s $23 Billion Snub From Wiz Will Sting Them Both
Money talks, but even $23 billion didn’t convince the founders of Wiz Inc. to sell to Alphabet Inc.
Subsidize Solar and Wind Power, Not EVs
Like it or not, the world is going to fall far short of meeting its current goals for reducing carbon emissions.
Want Good Value on a Home? Check Out San Francisco
San Francisco has been the subject of a lot of negative press over the past several years. It was hit hard by the pandemic exodus from cities, the shift to work from home that emptied offices, the crime and homelessness that marred its national reputation, and pledges by corporate leaders such as Elon Musk to relocate their company headquarters elsewhere.
Jamie Dimon’s Crack at Shadowy Proxy Firms Is Resonating
Pressure is again mounting on the proxy advisory firms that recommend how investors should vote on executive pay and other corporate matters. Regulators need to remember who should be prioritized here — investors, not company management.
Treasuries Lead Global Bond Rally as Traders Bet Cuts Are Near
US bonds rallied sharply as signs of a slowing economy and a recent stock-market rout fueled calls for quicker interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, further juicing bets on a steeper yield curve.
Markets Tear Up the Popular Trades That Reached ‘Stupid Levels’
The assumptions that have driven this year’s global financial markets are being rapidly rethought.
Bitcoin, Ether Slide as Risk Aversion Spreads to Crypto Market
Ether, the second-largest token, paced a drop in digital assets following a slump in equities that spread unease in global markets.
$1 Trillion Rout Hits Nasdaq 100 Over AI Jitters in Worst Day Since 2022
Investors soured on the promise of artificial intelligence Wednesday, sparking a $1 trillion rout in the Nasdaq 100 Index as questions swirled over just how long it will take for the substantial investments in the technology to pay off.
The Fed May Be Two Meetings Away From a Policy Mistake
The US inflation rate, which had surged to over 9% two years ago, is now around 3%. Based on current trends, it should settle at 2.5%-3%, a range that most economists would deem consistent with financial stability, including a firm anchoring of inflationary expectations.
Two-Year Treasuries See Record Investor Demand at Auction
Investors flocked to the US Treasury’s monthly sale of two-year notes in a powerful demonstration of faith in Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts beginning this year.
US Spot-Ether ETFs Exceed $100 Million Net Inflow in Debut
US exchange-traded funds investing directly in Ether achieved overall net inflows of $107 million on their first day of trading in launches that will provide a window onto mainstream crypto demand outside of Bitcoin.
I Changed My Mind. The Fed Needs to Cut Rates Now
I’ve long been in the “higher for longer” camp, insisting that the US Federal Reserve must hold short-term interest rates at the current level or higher to get inflation under control.
Will We Ever Learn to Avoid Bubbles?
When he took his first space walk, NASA astronaut Reid Wiseman had a revelation. “I used to think I was scared of heights,” he said. “Now I know I was just scared of gravity.”
SEC Seen Approving Spot-Ether ETFs in Latest Crypto Milestone
Regulators approved the first US exchange-traded funds investing directly in Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, according to filings and statements from asset managers.
Jamie Dimon’s Handpicked Wall Street Duo Hunts More Market Share
One was in the car with her family, the other had his phone off, when Jamie Dimon began dialing their numbers on a Saturday in January with a question: Could they run a Wall Street operation bigger than Goldman Sachs?
Alphabet Results to Set Tone for Big Tech on Advertising, Cloud
All eyes are on Alphabet Inc.’s earnings report to set the tone for how megacap technology companies fared in the second quarter.
Private Equity Is Illiquid by Design. Why Worry About It?
A recent Financial Times opinion piece laid out how illiquidity makes private equity hazardous for investors. The Bank of England’s Nathanaël Benjamin warns private equity illiquidity is a systemic risk to the financial system.
I Gave Up a 2.6% Mortgage to Upgrade. Will I Regret It?
The mortgage lock-in effect ended in the Levin household shortly before my in-laws arrived from Mexico to celebrate my daughter’s birthday at our home in the Miami area. As usual, my wife and I had no place to put them, and they had to get a room at a Courtyard Marriott.
Berkshire Hathaway Sells More of BYD, Bringing Stake Below 5%
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has sold off another block of BYD Co. shares, taking its stake in one of the world’s biggest carmakers to under 5% from more than 20% two years ago.
Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Sees US Small Cap Rally Losing Steam
The recent out-performance of US small-caps is facing technical resistance and lacks fundamental drivers to carry on for a longer period of time, according to Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson.
American Farmers’ Next Hot Commodity Is Canola for Biofuels
Canola oil — invented in Canada 50 years ago as a healthier, shelf-stable cooking fat — may soon venture beyond the world’s kitchen cupboards to a spot in the airways.
The Magnificent Seven Panic Is Over and We Survived
For the better part of 2024, market commentators have bemoaned the fact that a few mega-capitalization stocks, dubbed the Magnificent Seven, appeared to be carrying the entire US market.
Flailing Stock Market to Get a Lifeline From Earnings, Survey Shows
Despite the recent stock market slump that has some Wall Street pros bracing for a summer correction, respondents to Bloomberg’s Markets Live Pulse survey expect the latest round of corporate earnings to reinvigorate the S&P 500 Index.
Modi Put Up Tariff Walls. Now He Must Bring Them Down
Now that a jobs crisis is weakening his hold on power, how serious is Prime Minister Narendra Modi about reviving India’s factories? We will know in next week’s budget, a chance to remedy a disastrous lurch toward protectionism.
The Rice Price Scare is Over — Let’s Learn the Lessons
Wheat and corn are the most actively traded grains in financial markets. But they can’t damage the global economy like rice. The staple for half the world is largely ignored by Wall Street, but it’s the one commodity that really matters for global food security.
Netflix Adds 8 Million Customers, Extending Lead Over Rivals
Netflix Inc. extended its lead over the streaming competition, adding 8.05 million customers in the second quarter and raising estimates for annual sales and profit margins.
Amex Says It’s Going on Marketing Spree as Billings Growth Slows
American Express Co. warned it’s planning to increase spending on marketing in the coming months after billings growth on the payments giant’s credit cards slowed in the second quarter.
Economists Trim US Inflation Forecasts, Paving Way for Fed Cut
Economists trimmed their US inflation projections through the first half of 2025 and see a slightly higher unemployment rate, a combination they expect will encourage the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.
Hedge Funds Have an Election Plan: Sell the Calm, Buy the Chaos
How’s this for an election trade? Sell your winners now so you have cash on hand this fall to do some aggressive buying as the political jockeying heats up.
Britain Has a $5 Billion Bitcoin Stash. Reeves Can Unleash It
Rachel Reeves is going to need some money. The UK’s new Chancellor of the Exchequer has inherited, she says, one of the worst sets of circumstances since World War II.
Copper Set for Worst Week Since 2022 as China Plenum Disappoints
Copper headed for its worst weekly loss since 2022 and iron ore extended a slump toward $100 a ton as a policy meeting in China failed to lay out more stimulus to shore up metals demand.
Airfare War Is Ending Quickly as Carriers Retreat
There’s a new-found religion in the US airline industry, and investors should be thrilled. It’s called discipline.
Trading Desks Disrupted, Bankers Go Home as Outages Sweep Globe
Legions of bankers from Hong Kong and London to Dubai and South Africa were caught up in the global IT outage, leaving some unable to log on to computer systems and hobbling others from making trades.
Fed Prepares for September Cut as Powell Shifts Focus to Jobs
For more than two years, inflation has eclipsed everything else at the Federal Reserve. In a shift eagerly awaited by global markets, that’s poised to change.
Goldman’s Top Stock Analyst Is Waiting for AI Bubble to Burst
Over three decades on Wall Street, Jim Covello has learned how painful it can be to bet against an inflating tech stock bubble. The market has a way of minting riches, month after month, even after it’s clear the latest breakthroughs aren’t playing out quite as expected.
TSMC Hikes Revenue Outlook to Reflect Heated AI Demand
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. lifted projections for 2024 revenue growth after quarterly results beat estimates, reflecting its confidence in the longevity of the global AI spending boom.
Wall Street Senses the Barbarians Are Finally at the Gates
The barbarians are back at the gates. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are confident that their most important clients are about to get active after a long spell on the sidelines and help goose the long-awaited revival in investment banking fees.
Fed’s Critics on Inflation Should Now Champion July Cut
Back in 2021, legions of critics lambasted the Federal Reserve for failing to take proactive and forward-looking steps against the emerging inflation threat. Curiously, many of them have gone silent on the risk that the Fed might get caught flatfooted again, this time by failing to cut interest rates soon enough in the face of weaker inflation and a cooling labor market.
‘AI Laggards’ Find Favor as Magnificent Seven Stocks Lose Luster
Wall Street is looking beyond the obvious megacap stocks to find the next leg of the artificial intelligence trade.
Tesla Stock Will Surge 10-Fold on Robotaxis, Ark’s Wood Says
Tesla Inc. forming an autonomous taxi platform will be the catalyst for a roughly 10-fold increase in its share price, Ark Investment Management LLC’s Cathie Wood said, echoing years of bullish predictions about a business the carmaker has yet to stand up.
Wall Street Starts Calling Time on ESG Labels After Backlash
At Institutional Investor, keeper of Wall Street’s version of the Oscars for financial analysts, the winner in one category this year is — nobody.
Goldman Sells $5.5 Billion of Bonds in Post-Earnings Binge
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. joined rival JPMorgan Chase & Co. in the tapping the US investment-grade market after reporting second-quarter earnings.
Wall Street Economists See Compelling Case for Fed to Cut Now
A growing number of Wall Street economists are cautioning the Federal Reserve is waiting too long to reverse course after raising interest rates to a two-decade high.
Correlations Between Credit and Equities Are Breaking Down
Credit markets are breathing a sigh of relief after inflation data showed price pressures are cooling broadly, but a weakening economy poses fresh risks to corporate debt.
Goldman, Wells Fargo Join Big Banks’ Corporate Bond Sales Binge
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. are joining rival JPMorgan Chase & Co. in the tapping the US investment-grade bond market after reporting second-quarter earnings.
Insurers Tied to Apollo, KKR Buy Mortgages Outright in New Twist
Yield-hungry insurance firms are adopting an unconventional strategy: they’re skipping mortgage-backed bonds and buying the underlying whole loans outright.
The Housing Market Will Tell the Fed How Much to Cut Rates
It’s been clear since the fall of 2022 that the housing market needed lower interest rates to fix many of its problems including a lack of affordability for buyers, the mortgage rate lock-in dynamic for homeowners, and reduced activity for companies ranging from Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Cos. to suppliers of building materials.
The EU Should Be Careful How It Takes On Big Tech
Big tech companies have brought the 21st century some of its greatest innovations. Amazon.com Inc., Google search, Apple Inc.’s iPhone and other digital products have made people’s lives immensely more convenient and productive — a consumer benefit worth, by one estimate, more than $2.5 trillion a year. They deservedly dominate their respective markets.
Yes, You Can Save Too Much for Retirement
A young colleague came to me recently with a shameful admission: Despite the lecturing of her friends and family, as well as her own best intentions, she had not yet signed up for the company 401(k) plan. She lives in an expensive city and is nervous about tying up her money for the next 40 or 50 years.
Apple Hits Record High Again After Being Named Top Pick at Morgan Stanley
Apple Inc. surged to another record high on Monday after the tech giant was named a top pick at Morgan Stanley, with the broker seeing the launch of the company’s artificial intelligence platform triggering a record rush among users to upgrade their smartphones, tablets and computers.
Tax Hikes Seen No Matter Who’s President, Making Muni Bonds Attractive
No matter who wins November’s US presidential election, there’s a growing risk that Americans will be paying higher taxes next year, according to MacKay Shields LLC. That makes muni bonds an attractive shield.
Goldman Sachs Profit Surges as Traders Top Analysts’ Estimates
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading unit powered a surge in earnings in the second quarter.
Gen Z’s Alternative Investing Bug Will Cost Them Dearly
Younger investors are thinking about their investment portfolios all wrong, and it’s not entirely their fault. Ultimately, it’s up to them to recognize where the best long-term returns lie before too much precious time is wasted.
Earnings Expectations Are High for the Right Reasons
Human nature is such that there are always some folks who put a negative spin on obviously good news.
As Tide Goes Out on Private Credit, Smaller Firms Look Exposed
The clubby world of private credit seems to be running out of space for the little guy.
Treasuries Rally as Cool Inflation Boosts Bets on Three Fed Cuts
Treasury yields tumbled after benign inflation data renewed confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year.
Nuclear Energy Gets a Much-Needed Boost
President Joe Biden, as you’ve no doubt heard, has had a rough few weeks. Yet on Tuesday, he signed a bill into law that could well prove transformative for America’s energy future. Here’s hoping — whatever happens in November’s election — that more progress lies ahead.
The Fed Should Cut Rates Now. Sadly, It Won’t.
Thursday’s wildly encouraging consumer price index report shows that the Federal Reserve should be cutting policy rates at its meeting later this month. Unfortunately, they’ll probably keep us waiting until September.
Wall Street’s Portfolio-Trade Fad Hooks Slow-Moving Muni Market
The boom in portfolio trading is starting to creep into the market for state and local government debt.
Private Equity's Creative Wizardry Is Obscuring Danger Signs
As Pete Stavros addressed the private equity industry’s yearly shindig in Berlin last month, the KKR & Co. executive’s words were slightly less headline grabbing than those of Apollo Global Management’s co-president Scott Kleinman. But they were just as troubling.
Big Bet on Treasuries Needs Benign Inflation Data to Survive
Bond investors who’ve been positioning for a rally in the Treasury market are now looking for an endorsement from Thursday’s US inflation data.
Goldman Strategists Say Big Tech’s AI Splurge Worries Investors
Investors are growing increasingly concerned that US technology megacaps are spending too much on artificial intelligence, according Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
Bain, Reverence Near $3.5 Billion Deal for Envestnet
Bain Capital and Reverence Capital Partners have agreed a deal to take Envestnet Inc., a provider of wealth-management software, private.
Big Banks' Stress Tests Are Still Flawed
By some metrics, the US financial system is in great shape. All 31 banks that underwent the Federal Reserve’s stress tests this year maintained adequate capital even in a “severe” economic scenario.
YouTube Is a $455 Billion Media Giant Hiding in Plain Sight
Investors attach a $2.3 trillion valuation to Alphabet Inc. for its status as an internet search behemoth and AI innovator. Yet even that massive figure underplays YouTube’s true worth, according to analysts at Needham & Co.
M&A Is Back. Bonuses, Not So Much.
Life has been getting busier for investment bankers, but dealmakers aren’t cashing any checks yet. A stream of big-ticket merger and acquisition announcements this year bodes well for future revenue and bonuses, but no one gets paid until deals are completed. And that might not happen until late 2024 or even next year.
Market Strategists Thankfully Abandon S&P 500 Targets
Piper Sandler & Co. is eliminating its price target for the S&P 500 Index. Its Wall Street counterparts should follow suit.
Will AI Ever Pay Off? Those Footing the Bill Are Worrying Already
Tracking down those in the technology industry cautious about artificial intelligence is much like looking for Republicans in San Francisco: There’s plenty of them out there, if you’d care to ask. And lately, they seem to be growing in number.
Microsoft, Apple Drop OpenAI Board Plans as Scrutiny Grows
Microsoft Corp. and Apple Inc. dropped plans to take board roles at OpenAI in a surprise decision that underscores growing regulatory scrutiny of Big Tech’s influence over artificial intelligence.
Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says a 10% Stock Market Correction Is ‘Highly Likely’
Traders should brace for a significant pullback in the stock market as uncertainty swirls around the US presidential campaign, corporate earnings and Federal Reserve policy, according to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson.
Oaktree’s Howard Marks Sees Opening in Private Equity, Real Estate Pain
Struggling under the weight of interest rates, highly-levered assets within private equity and real estate are promising distressed investors some of the best opportunities in more than a decade, according to Howard Marks, co-chairman and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management.
Returns of $7.2 Trillion Green Sector Outpaced Only by Tech Stocks
If the companies that derive revenue from products and services that help reduce carbon emissions were taken as a single industry group, they would have had the second-best financial performance of any equity sector over the past decade.
Tech Giants Face Tough Task to Sustain Second Half Stock Rally
The world’s largest technology stocks drove a banner first half for the S&P 500. The question for the rest of the year is whether their strength continues.
The US Housing Crisis Is Really About Low-Wage Jobs
America’s housing crisis is often portrayed as a matter of supply. Depending on whom you ask, the shortfall is anywhere from 1.5 million to 7 million homes. Much of the policy debate focuses on how to close that gap.
The Private Equity Bubble Is About to Deflate
Markets today pose a new existential question: Can there be a bubble in something if it has no price?
Another Green Bubble Is Deflating in Biofuels
The oil company declared its traditional business was all but over. “The demand for fossil oil products will continue to decline,” it said in late 2020 as the pandemic slashed consumption. Even when Covid-19 is over, consumption wouldn’t “recover to previous levels.”
TSMC Shares Soar to Record on Expectations of Tight 2025 Supply
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. rose to a record intraday high in Taipei after Morgan Stanley joined a list of brokers boosting price targets on the chipmaker before its earnings.
Powell to Face Fed Critics in Congress on High Rates, Bank Rules
Jerome Powell will face pressure this week from lawmakers growing impatient for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and others who are unhappy with its latest plan to boost capital requirements for Wall Street lenders.
Hedge Funds That Piled Into Big Tesla Short Stung by Rally
Hedge funds piled into short bets against Tesla Inc. right before the electric vehicle maker unveiled a set of numbers that triggered a hefty share-price rally.
Labor Market Weakness Keeps Door Open For Canada Rate Cuts
The Canadian labor market unexpectedly lost jobs for the second time in four months, keeping the central bank on track to further cut rates this year.
Supreme Court Sensibly Made Markets Regulation Less Political
Last week, the Supreme Court overturned a decades-old legal doctrine that gave federal regulators the power to interpret unclear laws. This touched off a lot of wild rhetoric about the end of the administrative state.
Ancient Rome Survived High Inflation. We Can, Too
Worried that inflation is coming down too gradually? The Romans had a not-so-subtle solution: Anyone suspected of ratcheting up prices faced execution. If you’re currently anxious about declining fertility across today’s major economies, they had an answer for that, too: Celibacy was discouraged among women, Vestal Virgins excluded. Offenders might forfeit their inheritance.
The US Economic Slowdown Is Looking More Threatening
On the surface, the US employment report for June looked pretty good. Some 206,000 jobs were added, which exceeded the 190,000 median estimate of more than five dozen economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Also, wage growth continued to moderate, easing concern that fast-rising earnings would underpin inflation.
Starmer Vows Stability After Election Victory Exposes Discontent
New British Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised a government of “stability and moderation” after leading his Labour Party to a landslide election victory that ended 14 years of Conservative rule that became characterized by turmoil and infighting.
McDonald’s $5 Meal Tells You Where Prices Are Headed
Between McDonald’s $5 value meal, Taco Bell’s $7 cravings box and budget breakfasts from Starbucks and Wendy’s Co., fast food chains are fighting hard to win over hungry Americans this summer. Why now? It comes down to price-sensitive customers voting with their wallets and forcing companies to chase traffic to grow revenue and profits.
MegazoneCloud Picks JPMorgan, Banks for IPO as AI Interest Grows
MegazoneCloud Corp. has selected firms including a unit of JPMorgan Chase & Co. to help it kickstart an initial public offering that could value one of Asia’s biggest cloud and AI services companies at several billion dollars.
Tesla Shares on Track to Turn Positive for 2024 After $200 Billion Rally
Tesla Inc. shares are set to extend gains for an eighth consecutive session on Friday, putting the stock of the world’s most valuable automaker on track to turn positive for the year.
US Bond Yields Fall as Jobs Report Supports Case for Fed Cuts
US Treasuries gained, pushing yields lower, after a mixed report on the US labor market left traders holding tight to bets that Federal Reserve officials will lower interest rates this year.
Trying to Kill Chinese Tech Only Makes It Stronger
In trying to block China’s climb up the ladder of technological sophistication, the US may inadvertently be giving its rival a hand up.
US Payroll Growth Slows and Jobless Rate Ticks Up to 4.1%
US hiring and wage growth stepped down in June while the jobless rate rose to the highest since late 2021, bolstering prospects that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in coming months.
Labour’s Win Gives Britain a Chance to Redeem Itself
Ever since Rishi Sunak’s rain-sodden announcement to call a general election on July 4, one question has hung over British politics: Will Labour win by a landslide or just a regular majority?
Gold Set for Weekly Gain as US Jobs Data May Give Clue on Easing
Gold headed for a back-to-back weekly gain on expectations that the Federal Reserve will trim interest rates before year-end, with traders looking ahead to US payrolls data for the next batch of clues on the outlook.
Fed’s Williams Says Inflation Job Not Done Despite Progress
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said that while inflation has cooled recently toward the Fed’s 2% target, policymakers are still some distance from their goal.
Bezos to Sell $5 Billion of Amazon as Shares Hit Record High
Jeff Bezos disclosed a plan to unload 25 million additional shares of Amazon.com Inc. worth $5 billion on the day the stock hit a fresh record.
EU’s Hard Line on Tech Keeps Users Off the Cutting Edge
As promised, the European Commission is getting tough on big tech. Buoyed by what it sees as the successful implementation of the General Data Protection Regulation, or GDPR, regulators are now going full tilt with their feistier legislation on anti-competitive behavior and improper use of personal data.
Private Funds’ Hundreds of Billions of Opaque Debts Need Light
The dearth of private equity deal-making has been a nightmare for big investment banks used to getting 20% to 30% of their total advisory revenue from the industry.
Gen Z Is Taking Too Much Risk in the Markets
My financial education didn’t have the most auspicious start. I suppose I was lucky that in high school I had a class on basic investing and finance.
Ether ETF Hopefuls Gear Up for Approval as Soon as Mid-July
Asset managers are optimistic that the SEC will greenlight the first US ETFs that invest directly in Ether as soon as mid-July, saying the back and forth with the regulator remains constructive.
Only Musk’s Robotaxi Can Save Tesla Investors Now
Tesla Inc. is, according to its promoters — very much including Chief Executive Elon Musk — an artificial intelligence giant trapped in a carmaker’s body. That much was evident from quarterly sales and production numbers, and the market’s reaction to them, on Tuesday morning.
Wall Street Maps Out What a Trump Win Would Mean for Bonds
Financial giants from Goldman Sachs & Co. to Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. are taking a fresh look at how a Donald Trump victory in November could play out in the bond market.
Bridgewater Launches $2 Billion Fund Powered by Machine Learning
Bridgewater Associates is launching a fund that uses machine learning as the primary basis of its decision-making.
Powell Welcomes Recent Data But Fed Needs More Confidence to Cut
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the latest economic data suggest inflation is getting back on a downward path, but added officials would like to see more evidence before lowering interest rates.
US Labor Market Shows Signs of Losing Steam, Putting the Fed on Alert
Economists and some Federal Reserve officials are increasingly on alert that pain could be on the horizon for American workers amid signs the labor market is losing steam.
Hedge Funds Are Just Too Big to Beat the Market
Hedge funds were once the hottest investment around, but they’ve long ceded the spotlight to better performers, including private assets, real estate, technology startups and even cryptocurrencies.
BlackRock Goes From Alternative to Unconventional With PE Data Deal
How alternative can you get? Historically, conventional fund managers have dealt with the threat from private equity and hedge funds by creating or buying alternative investment funds of their own.
Big Names in S&P 500 Overshadow the Risk of a Volatility Jump
Shares of the largest US companies are moving wildly out of sync, creating a sense of calm in the S&P 500 Index not seen in years. But it’s a different story when it comes to the rest of the market.
Tesla Is Running Out of Excuses for Its Prolonged Sales Slump
Tesla Inc. is expected to report another quarter of weaker sales, and it’s running out of alibis.
Trump Ascendancy Has Morgan Stanley Team Touting Steeper Curve
The growing prospect of a Trump presidential victory is making yield curve steepeners an attractive bet as growth will likely slow and inflation quicken under such a scenario, according to Morgan Stanley.
Boeing Should Take a Plea Deal With One Condition
The fallout keeps coming from a door plug that blew off a Boeing Co. 737 Max plane in midair during an Alaska Airlines flight in January.
There’s a New Mr. Yen in Town
Jerome Powell is Mr. Yen. He has been for some time, but it has taken a while for the world to catch on.
Oil Retreats From Two-Month High as Traders Weigh Mixed Outlook
Oil retreated from a nearly two-month high as traders weighed a weakening physical market against escalating Mideast tensions.
A $400 Billion Frenzy as Nvidia, Crypto Boom: ETFs So Far in ‘24
Hype over artificial intelligence, the eagerly anticipated launch of Bitcoin funds, and billions of dollars flowing toward the seemingly unstoppable stock-market surge: ETFs have seen it all and been the beneficiary so far this year.
Bitcoin Eclipsed by Ether, Solana in Crypto Bets Tapping ETF Hype
Bitcoin’s performance is starting to be overshadowed by the Ether and Solana tokens as hype around US cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds shifts to the two smaller digital assets.
US Consumer Sentiment Falls by Less Than Initially Estimated
US consumer sentiment declined in June by less than initially estimated on expectations inflationary pressures will moderate.
Fed’s Daly Says Latest Data Show Monetary Policy Is Working
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said inflation data out Friday indicates monetary policy is working, but said it’s too early to tell when it will be appropriate to lower borrowing costs.
Buffett Gifts to Gates Foundation to End When He Dies, WSJ Says
Warren Buffett’s donations to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will stop when he dies, with his daughter and two sons overseeing a new charitable trust, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
Tesla Is About to Lose Its EV Market Majority in the US
Tesla Inc. is on the verge of losing a key bragging right it’s held for the past six years: outselling all EV competitors in the US combined.
Bonds Set for Biggest Monthly Gain in 2024 as Inflation Ebbs
US Treasuries are headed for their biggest monthly rally of the year after the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge decelerated, bolstering expectations for interest-rate cuts starting this year.
The Supreme Court Just Decided the SEC Has Too Much Power
Things just got a little harder for the Securities and Exchange Commission, which henceforth must seek certain civil damages for securities fraud by going to federal court, rather than through its own internal adjudicatory process.
A Trucking Rebound Is Near. For Real This Time.
The US trucking market, which has been in recession for more than a year now, is poised to recover … at some unknowable point in the future.
Zuckerberg’s VR Vision Validated by Apple’s Vision Pro Pullback
As Apple Inc. prepared to introduce its Vision Pro headset a year ago, the worry at Meta Platforms Inc. was that the hardware geniuses in Cupertino were about to unveil a breakthrough in mixed reality, some new take on a computing platform that Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg had been trying to crack for more than a decade.
The Real Reason to Worry About the Huge US Budget Deficit
The US government’s finances keep looking worse. The latest Congressional Budget Office projections suggest that it will need to borrow an added $400 billion this year to cover its budget deficit — and trillions more over the next decade.
Nvidia’s Wild Stock Swings Put AI Rally Stamina in Spotlight
Big swings in Nvidia Corp. shares have reignited debate about the staying power of the chipmaker’s rally. While the stock’s valuation and threat of competition are major concerns, one variable is key: durability of demand.
FedEx Stokes Investors With Hint of a Freight Deal
FedEx Corp. dropped a bomb on the market Tuesday afternoon with the announcement that it will do an “assessment” of its freight unit. Investors seemed to like the move, pushing up the shares as much as 15%, on the possibility of a windfall and a more pure-play package delivery and logistics company.
The Petrodollar Is Dead, Long Live the Petrodollar
The petrodollar died this month -- or so I learnt via the financial blogosphere. In the past fortnight, Google searches for “petrodollar” have spiked to a record, and viral posts about Saudi Arabia ditching the greenback have ricocheted throughout commodity and currency trading rooms. Apparently, a cataclysmic event has ended American economic hegemony.
Goldman Signals End of an Era in Private Equity With a Big Hire
A long era of easy profits in private equity is gone, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is digging in deeper for the harder work ahead.
Bond Market in Step With Fed Is About to Slam Into US Election
It took much of the first half of the year for Treasury bond investors to fall in line with a Federal Reserve signaling higher-for-longer interest rates. Now, as they weigh the timing of a second-half pivot, they must also contend with potential wild-card risks from a hotly contested presidential race.
Bond Traders Boldly Bet on 300 Basis Points of Fed Cuts by March
Traders in the US rates options market are embracing a nascent wager on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path: a whopping 3 percentage points worth of cuts in the next nine months.
Wall Street Banks Accelerate Buybacks Ahead of Fed Stress Tests
The biggest US banks haven’t waited for this week’s stress tests to signal optimism about their capital levels.
Economic Doomers Just Dived Into the Shallow End of the Pool
After being so consistently wrong in recent years about how the US economy and households would perform coming out of the pandemic, doomsayers should have learned their lesson. But there they were in full force after Pool Corp. said late Monday that it was lowering its earnings outlook because households aren’t installing backyard swimming pools as they once did.
The Fed Needs a Bit More Fight On Tougher Bank Rules
Big US banks look to be getting their way in the fight over tougher capital rules. The Federal Reserve is talking to other regulators about changes to the updated standards that were proposed last July, according to Bloomberg News, which could mean capital demands increasing by less than one-third of what was originally envisaged.
AI's Hunger for Power Can Be Tamed
The artificial intelligence hype that made Nvidia Corp. the world’s biggest company has come with a price for the world’s climate. Data centers housing its powerful chips are gorging power and belching carbon dioxide, and sobering figures now reveal the extent of the problem.
We’ve Already Picked Decoupling’s Low-Hanging Fruit
Declines in foreign direct investment in China bolster the thesis that global companies are turning away from the world’s most-important production hub, continuing the trend of decoupling that has policymakers and corporate leaders looking for alternative manufacturing bases. The truth of the nation’s deteriorating importance isn’t so simple.
Nvidia’s Murky AI Future Isn’t Reflected in Its Price
Every now and then, a company comes along that is so dominant and is growing so quickly that it feels like the only stock anyone cares about. I’m referring, of course, to Nvidia Corp., the chip giant powering artificial intelligence. Its stock has surged 4,000% over the past five years, making it one of the three most valuable businesses in the world alongside heavyweights Microsoft Corp. and Apple Inc.
Jain Global Raises $5.3 Billion, Secures Cash From Abu Dhabi
Bobby Jain has gathered $5.3 billion in commitments for his new multistrategy hedge fund, marking the biggest fundraising haul since ExodusPoint Capital Management’s record debut.
Nvidia Rout Takes Breather as Traders Scour Charts for Support
Nvidia Corp. shares showed signs of steadying after a $430 billion selloff sent traders searching for signals as to where the bottom may be.
How India Can Engineer a Future Beyond Software
In the early 2000s, Alok Nanda’s new colleagues called him the “bumper guy.”
Homebuilders Urgently Need Fed Rate Cuts
New home construction slumped to the weakest level in four years in May, confirming a trend that’s been evolving for the past few months — residential construction is once again acting as a drag on economic growth in the US.
Stocks Face Meager Upside After 2024 Gains, Survey Shows
The S&P 500 Index has likely logged most of the gains it will see this year as investors are growing increasingly nervous about the stock market’s rich valuations, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.
Nvidia Sales Grow So Fast That Wall Street Can’t Keep Up
Nvidia Corp. is the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 Index, with its shares trading for roughly 23 times the company’s projected sales over the next 12 months.
How Long Can High Rates Last? Bond Markets Say Maybe Forever
Just as optimism is growing among investors that a rally in US Treasuries is about to take off, one key indicator in the bond market is flashing a worrying sign for anyone thinking about piling in.
Anthropic Releases ‘Most Intelligent’ AI Model in Rivalry With OpenAI
Artificial intelligence startup Anthropic is releasing a new AI model that it calls its fastest and most capable yet in a rivalry with OpenAI.
US Existing-Home Sales Fall a Third Month as Prices Set a Record
Sales of existing homes in the US fell for a third straight month in May while prices set another record, underscoring persistent affordability challenges that hobbled the important spring selling season.
High-Grade Company Bonds Increasingly Trade Near Junk Levels
Some money managers that buy junk bonds have been pouring money into investment-grade notes instead, because the yields can be almost as high now.
Pro Athletes Want to Sell You a Stake In Their Earnings. Hard Pass.
Are you bored with the cash, stocks and bonds in your retirement portfolio? Then perhaps it’s time to spice things up with shares in an NFL outside linebacker.
Private Credit Investors in Europe Ditch Extra Leverage on Default Fears
Private credit investors in Europe are abandoning leveraged plays to try to get ahead of a potential wave of defaults.
Xi, Putin Score Wins as More Asia Leaders Aim to Join BRICS
As Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Li Qiang wrapped up separate meetings in Southeast Asia this week, the two partners in the BRICS economic bloc encountered a region keen to join a group seen as a hedge against Western-led institutions.
Wall Street Bankers Skip Hamptons Summer for Pro Lacrosse League
This summer, countless bankers and financiers will get away to the Hamptons or vacation in Europe. And a handful will be traveling nearly every weekend — to play lacrosse.
Dell, Super Micro Shares Jump on Reports of ‘AI Factory’ for Elon Musk’s xAI
Dell Technologies Inc. shares rose on Thursday after Chief Executive Officer Michael Dell said the company is building a “Dell AI factory” for Elon Musk’s startup xAI alongside Nvidia Corp.
Bitcoin Slumps to More Than One Month Low as Risk Appetite Ebbs
Bitcoin slumped to a more than one-month low with this year’s record-breaking rally showing signs of fatigue in the absence of fresh market catalysts.
Paying Walmart Managers Millions Is Just Good Business
After being on the frontline of the pandemic, then grappling with an edgy public and a spike in shoplifting, its been a tough few years to work retail. But for Walmart Inc. managers, at least, things are looking up.
At Blackstone's $339 Billion Property Arm, the Honeymoon Is Over
Nadeem Meghji was on honeymoon in late 2022 when the biggest storm to have rocked Blackstone Inc.’s property business hit its peak.
All Roads Lead to Nvidia as Tech Sees Record Inflows, Says BofA
The ongoing artificial intelligence frenzy that briefly made Nvidia Corp. the world’s most valuable company this week also drove record inflows into tech funds, said Bank of America Corp. strategists.
Global Bonds Jump as Weak European Data Boosts Rate-Cut Bets
Bonds surged after business activity across Europe encountered an unexpected setback, prompting traders to amp up wagers on monetary easing.
Apple’s AI Rally Puts Valuation at Risk of Outpacing Reality
Apple Inc.’s record-breaking rally has invited skepticism as to whether its artificial intelligence strategy justifies the stock’s valuation.
What a Japanese AI Unicorn Can Teach Silicon Valley
Silicon Valley’s “move fast and break things” mantra propelled tech innovation for the internet age. In the era of artificial intelligence, it should take a leaf out of Japan’s playbook and slow down.
‘Sellers Are Entering the Market’ With S&P Faltering Beyond Tech
Take out the few big tech companies that keep pushing the S&P 500 Index to all time highs and it looks like the engine is running on fumes.
Morgan Stanley Looks to Latin America as Global Tensions Rise
Morgan Stanley is increasing its investments in Latin America as geopolitical conflicts elsewhere in the world give the region increasing prominence in the global economy.
Treasuries Are a Whisker Away From Erasing This Year’s Loss
US Treasuries are on the brink of breaking even during a roller-coaster first half of the year.
New US Home Construction Plunges to Slowest Pace Since June 2020
New home construction in the US slumped in May to the slowest pace in four years, as higher-for-longer interest rates sap the housing industry’s momentum from earlier this year.
China Will Struggle to Undo US Dominance
The hottest thing in global economics is an oldie but a goodie. This market darling is enjoying enviable growth and sucking in capital from around the world. It possesses a vibrant labor market and a currency that's not just a store of value, but increasingly seen as an ascendant strategic asset. And it’s not the China of yesteryear.
Nvidia’s Explosive Growth Masks AI Disillusionment
Does anyone in Silicon Valley know the saying, “The bigger they are, the harder they fall?” Perhaps it’s just a matter of time before they will.
Pimco Warns of More Regional Bank Failures on Property Pain
Pacific Investment Management Co. expects more regional bank failures in the US because of a “very high” concentration of troubled commercial real estate loans on their books.
US Retail Sales Barely Increase In Sign of Consumer Strain
US retail sales barely rose in May and prior months were revised lower, pointing to greater financial strain among consumers.
Strange Things Lurk Under the Hood of the Payroll Numbers
As the monthly nonfarm payroll employment numbers repeatedly blew past economists’ forecasts over the past couple of years, one small sector in particular stood out.
How the Fed Is Helping Make the Case for a Carbon Tax
The longer interest rates stay higher, the stronger the case grows for … a carbon tax.
Nvidia Insiders Cash In on Rally as Share Sales Top $700 Million
Nvidia Corp. insiders have sold shares worth more than $700 million this year as the stock continues to push deeper into record territory amid unrelenting demand for its chips.
Retail Funds Dive Into Quant-Factor ETFs After $48 Billion Haul
Traders are lavishing billions of dollars on quant-powered stock trades, boosting an investing style that’s struggled to gain traction in an era when simple bets on traditional large-cap indexes have paid off handsomely.
Hedge Funds Turn Cautious on Stocks Even as Wall Street Strategists Get Bullish
Wall Street strategists are rushing to raise their targets for the S&P 500 Index, but hedge funds are growing increasingly cautious about equities due to the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates, softer economic data and narrow stock market breadth.
Trading Indicator With 100% Win Rate Signals Sell Long Bonds Now
A technical trading strategy with a perfect trading record this year is signaling that it’s time to sell long-maturity Treasuries after a rally last week.
Lazy Fed Forecasts Are a Disgrace. Let’s Do Better
The Federal Reserve will begin a review of its monetary policy framework later this year, including a potential reconsideration of the ways it communicates with the public. Of great interest is the fate of the dot plot, an anonymous collection of policymakers’ interest rate projections that generates considerable attention each quarter on Wall Street.
Double-Digit US Stock Returns Are in the Past, Bubble or Not
There’s a lot of bubble talk around US stocks. The market has been on fire in recent years. The S&P 500 Index has more than doubled in value since bottoming in March 2020 on Covid fears. It’s also up 14% a year since 2010, including dividends, nearly 5 percentage points a year better than its long-term annual return.
Apple Eyes Best Week Since 2021 on Bet AI iPhones Are Must-Haves
Apple Inc. investors finally have a roadmap for how it will use artificial intelligence — and they’ve responded by pushing the stock toward its best week in more than two years.
Solar Power’s Giants Are Providing More Energy Than Big Oil
The manufacturers of solar equipment, similarly, aren’t in the final analysis providing us with panels of silicon and glass, but machines that can harvest power from the sun. The activities of each group of companies provide a fresh flow of useful energy to the world every year. And by many measures, the solar companies have already overtaken Big Oil.
G-7 Pledges to Step Up Action on Russia Fleet, Energy, Metals
Group of Seven leaders meeting in Italy this week will pledge to tighten enforcement of their price cap on Russian oil, choke the Kremlin’s future energy projects and reduce Moscow’s revenues from metals, according to a statement seen by Bloomberg.
Binance CEO Teng Sees ‘Landmark’ Year as Crypto Goes Mainstream
This is turning out to be a “landmark year” for the crypto industry, Binance Holdings Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Richard Teng said, thanks to growing regulatory clarity, more mainstream adoption and the launch of exchange-traded funds tied to Bitcoin.
AI Is Making Robots Smarter. They’ll Need Boundaries.
Artificial intelligence is sweeping across the economy. It’s showing up in the stock market with Nvidia’s meteoric rise, and the marketing blitz around AI is inescapable, whether from software providers peddling the promise of harnessed data to golf-club makers trumpeting an AI design. Narrow AI is now a real tool, and companies are figuring out how to deploy it.
JPMorgan Asset Management Sees Stocks Powering On In Second Half
A historically strong start to the year for the US stock market should continue into the second half of 2024, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset management division.
JPMorgan to Wager on Weight-Loss Boom With $500 Million Fund
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset-management arm raised more than $500 million for a biotech venture-capital fund that will bet on the hottest corner of health care: weight-loss drugs.
Bond Market Splits From Fed Again by Betting on 2024 Rate Cuts
Bond traders loaded back up on interest-rate-cut bets — and even the pushback coming out of the Federal Reserve did little to shake their conviction.
Don’t Legitimize Cornering the Copper Market
When the Hunt brothers cornered the silver market in 1980 by amassing a huge cache of the precious metal, jeweler Tiffany & Co. ran an advertisement in the New York Times denouncing the move: “We think it is unconscionable for anyone to hoard several billion, yes billion, dollars worth of silver and thus drive the price up.”
Apple to ‘Pay’ OpenAI for ChatGPT Through Distribution, Not Cash
When Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook and his top deputies this week unveiled a landmark arrangement with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT into the iPhone, iPad and Mac, they were mum on the financial terms.
Only Apple Would Try to Rebrand AI. Will It Succeed?
You have to hand it to Apple Inc. After an embarrassing, tone-deaf ad last month that made the company look oblivious to AI’s impact on the world, its marketing department has now rebranded AI as “Apple Intelligence.” It’s a feat of superiority only the company could pull off.
A Brief Guide to What Really Matters on CPI-Fed Day
Wednesday is shaping up to be a doozy in the US bond market. Following the release of the consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. in Washington, investors will turn to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate decision at 2 p.m., which includes an update to policymakers’ carefully scrutinized economic projections.
US Inflation Broadly Cools in Encouraging Sign for Fed Officials
A key measure of underlying US inflation stepped down for a second month in May, a pleasant surprise for Federal Reserve officials looking for signs that they can start to lower interest rates.
Oracle Shares Set for Record High on AI-Fueled Cloud Growth
Oracle Corp. reported better-than-expected bookings and announced partnership deals with tech rivals, giving a boost to Chairman Larry Ellison’s effort to redefine the software maker as a major competitor in the business of cloud computing.
JPMorgan Risk Swap Ends Up at a Familiar Place: Rival Banks
When JPMorgan Chase & Co. arranged a series of trades to shift the risk of losses from $20 billion of its loans, some of those dangers wound up at a familiar place: rival banks.
GM Approves $6 Billion Stock Buyback on Growth in EVs
General Motors Co. authorized a new $6 billion share buyback plan as improving profitability in its electric vehicle operations allows the automaker to return cash to investors.
Bond Traders Will Follow New Fed Dots All the Way Into 2025
Bond traders who have come to terms with the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates through 2024 are looking toward this week’s Federal Reserve meeting for clues on how to game out 2025 and beyond.
Fed’s Higher-for-Longer Stance Hits Firms That Expected Rate Cut
American businesses and consumers started the year thinking interest rates would finally come down, making big plans to buy equipment or a house. Now all of that is on hold, slowing large swaths of the economy for the foreseeable future.
Hedge Funds Pile Into Copycat Quant Trades They Once Derided
Wall Street’s half-trillion-dollar business cloning quant trades has some surprising new customers: the very firms whose strategies it mimics.
Watch What Consumers Do, Not How They Feel
Over the past few years, even as they have been gritting their teeth and complaining about higher prices, consumers have been fueling US economic growth. Now their pandemic savings are gone and the labor market is cooling off, raising the question: How much will the economy slow down?
Traders Are Bracing for Volatility on Fed-CPI Double Blow
Whether it’s another move up or a dive down, traders are bracing for added volatility wrought by Wednesday’s dual macroeconomic catalysts: a report on consumer prices in the morning and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision in the afternoon.
Broader Tech Rally Hangs on Fed Getting Closer to Cutting Rate
A broad equity rally isn’t spilling over into the technology sector, where gains are still concentrated in just a few artificial intelligence winners that have become defensive plays amid an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.
Apple’s $471 Billion Rally Hinges on Whether AI Event Delivers
It’s the moment of truth for Apple Inc.’s artificial intelligence plans — and for the $471 billion rally that has rescued the stock from the doldrums.
Two Companies Will Guide Global Supply Chains
A splintering of global supply chains, driven by both political and business considerations, has hundreds of manufacturers and logistics providers debating where to go next. They’d be well advised to take their cues from two Taiwanese companies who’ve led the charge.
Homes for Sale Are Piling Up, Just Not Where the Buyers Are
Lately the housing market has faced a different conundrum at every turn. This year’s puzzle is the disconnect between an aggressive rise in the number of existing homes for sale and still sluggish transactions.
Tesla Investor’s Suit Targets Vote on Texas Move, Musk Pay
A Tesla Inc. shareholder sued to challenge an upcoming proxy vote about whether the electric-car maker should move its corporate home to Texas and re-approve a $56 billion pay package for co-founder Elon Musk that was thrown out by a Delaware judge.
Here’s Everything Apple Plans to Show at Its AI-Focused WWDC Event
Apple Inc. isn’t typically the first to embrace new product categories — as it famously showed with its iPhone, smartwatch and Vision Pro. All those areas were established before the company showed up, but Apple found a way to make its mark.
US Moves Closer to Tariffs on Asia Solar Panels With Vote
The US government moved closer to imposing new tariffs on solar cells and panels from Southeast Asia after an agency’s initial determination that American manufacturers are being harmed by cheap imports from the region.
Stunning Job Numbers May End Up Being Just OK
The labor market data is full of conflicting signals, but the big picture is that the US economy is in pretty good shape. That’s worth celebrating, irrespective of what the “good news is bad news for interest rates” crowd tells you.
LNG Is Both a Savior and a Curse in Europe
In its moment of most need, back in 2022, the liquified natural gas market saved Europe. Now, that same LNG market is the continent’s new vulnerability. The good news is that the weakness should be short-lived; the bad news is that it won’t go away before the next winter.
Ackman’s Pershing Pitch Shows Why So Few Hedge Funds IPO
There’s a reason so few hedge fund firms seek a stock market listing: Investors don’t like them. The allure of an economic interest in these money machines is tempered by the risks. First, there’s key-person risk. Many such firms are dominated by a single executive.
El-Erian Says Strong Jobs Data Closes Door on July Fed Rate Cut
Stronger-than-expected US May jobs data closes the door on a July Federal Reserve rate cut, Mohamed El-Erian said.
Treasury Yields Surge as Hot Jobs Data Dims Fed Rate-Cut Bets
Treasury yields surged as surprise strength in the US labor market forced traders to pare back their wagers on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year.
Doubts About US Ether ETF Demand Herald Test for Second-Largest Token
Debut US exchange-traded funds for the Ether cryptocurrency may generate much less demand than spot-Bitcoin products, according to analysts, muddying the outlook for the second-largest token.
Cathie Wood Says Ark Is Well Placed in AI After Nvidia Trim
Cathie Wood said Ark Investment Management is well positioned in artificial intelligence assets, even after her company trimmed back on Nvidia Corp. shares before the rally last year.
First-Quarter US Labor Costs Marked Down on Weaker Output, Hours
US labor costs increased in the first quarter by less than previously reported, reflecting downward revisions to economic output and hours worked and consistent with other signs of moderating activity.
‘Everything Is Not Going to Be OK’ in Private Equity, Apollo’s Co-President Says
The private equity industry must face up to the reality of lower valuations, according to Apollo Global Management Inc.’s Scott Kleinman.
Elon Musk Isn’t a Victim No Matter What Tesla Says
It’s a tough gig portraying the world’s third-richest person as a victim, but Tesla Inc.’s board of directors are giving it a go.The question is whether the company’s institutional shareholders will be intimidated into buying that story at a pivotal vote on June 13.
Fragile Banks Won’t Make the US or Europe Stronger
Less than 15 months after the world’s most recent banking crisis, regulators in the US and Europe are already poised to roll back reforms aimed at reducing the risk of further financial disasters. It’s a serious mistake.
NXP, Vanguard to Build $7.8 Billion Singapore Chip Wafer Plant as Tech Firms Hedge Against China
NXP Semiconductors NV is teaming up with a company partly owned by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to build a $7.8 billion chip wafer plant in Singapore, marking a boost for the island nation’s tech ambitions.
Apple Made Once-Unlikely Deal With Sam Altman to Catch Up in AI
When a 23-year-old Sam Altman took the stage at Apple Inc.’s annual developer conference in 2008, he gushed about being able to use the company’s new App Store to promote his software, a friend-locating service called Loopt.
After $2 Trillion Gain, Nvidia Is Still Irresistible to Many
Its business is massive, its profits are booming and everyone already knows Nvidia Corp. is the hottest stock on Wall Street.
BlackRock, Citadel Back Texas Stock Exchange in Challenge to NYSE
BlackRock Inc., Citadel Securities and other investors are backing an upstart Texas stock market, laying down a challenge to the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc. and signaling a potential boost for a state trying to grab more of the financial services industry.
Intel CEO Takes Aim at Nvidia in Fight for AI Chip Dominance
Intel Corp. Chief Executive Officer Pat Gelsinger took the stage at the Computex show in Taiwan to talk about new products he expects will help turn back the tide of share losses to peers, including AI leader Nvidia Corp.
Fidelity Piles On Pressure in Looming Revenue Plan for ETF Firms
Fidelity Investments is flexing its muscles in efforts to extract payments from ETF firms in exchange for listing and maintaining their products on its massive platform, stoking industry ire.
Majority of Middle-Class Americans Say They Struggle Financially
Almost two-thirds of Americans considered middle class said they are facing economic hardship and don’t anticipate a change for the rest of their lives, according to a poll commissioned by the National True Cost of Living Coalition.
Do You Trust Bill Ackman to Build a $250 Billion Fund Manager?
Celebrity fund manager and activist investor Bill Ackman just sold 10% of his investment management company in a deal that valued Pershing Square at $10.5 billion. An initial public offering could come as soon as next year, the Wall Street Journal has reported.
A Hospital Bankruptcy Offers a Cautionary Tale on Private Equity
As private equity investment in health care has surged to almost $1 trillion over the past decade — funding new technologies, clinical trials and more — a lack of transparency has made it hard to assess whether the industry is also putting patients at risk.
JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley Split on Outlook for Equity Gains
Investors betting on further US equity gains over the coming months will be disappointed, according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Their peers at Morgan Stanley disagree.
Nvidia and AMD Square Off in Fight to Take Control of AI
Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s chiefs showcased new generations of the chips powering the global boom in AI development, deepening a rivalry that may decide the direction of artificial intelligence design and adoption.
GameStop Shares Surge as Gill’s Reddit Return Shows Huge Bet
GameStop Corp. shares surged after the Reddit account that drove the meme-stock mania of 2021 posted what appeared to be a $116 million position in the video-game retailer.
OPEC+ Says Goodbye to Its $100-a-Barrel Oil Quest
After relentlessly pursuing $100-a-barrel oil, the OPEC+ cartel has all but thrown in the towel. Whether the U-turn is a tactical retreat, or a strategic shift, is still unclear. But for now its impact would be the same: Oil prices would be somewhat lower and global inflation would ease.
Inflation Feels Bad No Matter How You Define It
The people who experience the US economy continue to disagree with the people who measure it, and the most likely reason is inflation: Most Americans still see it as a major problem, while most economists don’t. But this debate recently veered from economics to semantics.
Nvidia’s Founder Leads Parade of CEOs to Summit on Future of AI
Nvidia Corp.’s Jensen Huang will lead a gathering of tech business leaders in Taipei starting Sunday, an unusual opportunity for the industry’s most important executives to come together and figure out the future of computing and AI.
Goldman Sees Obesity-Drug Market Growing to $130 Billion by 2030
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees growing potential for the global market for weight-loss drugs by the end of the decade.
America’s Tax Cut Era Must End
For more than two decades, America has pursued a policy as costly as the New Deal of the 1930s or the Great Society of the 1960s, but with a much narrower aim: cut taxes.
Bonds Rally as Inflation Gauge Sustains Fed Rate-Cut Outlook
US government bonds rallied Friday, adding to their monthly gain, after benign inflation data kept alive predictions that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once this year.
Big Investors Demand Hedge Funds Beat Cash Before Charging Fees
Institutional investors have grown tired of paying fees to hedge funds for what they see as “skill-less returns.”
Inflation Takes Three Years to Fall to 2% in Cleveland Fed Model
Inflation may not return to the US central bank’s 2% target until mid-2027, according to research from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
UBS Completes Historic Takeover as Credit Suisse Ceases to Exist
UBS Group AG completed the historic acquisition of its former rival Credit Suisse, marking a new chapter for the Swiss financial sector as the defunct bank has formally ceased to exist.
Weakest Parts of the Economy Are Hindering Rate Cuts, Too
When people think about the Federal Reserve and interest rates in 2024, one common view is that economic growth and inflation remain too hot to justify rate cuts. Another is that the labor market and inflation continue to cool, and it will soon be time for rate cuts.
Higher for Longer Rates Mean No Escape From the Debt Squeeze
Companies going bust, mounting credit card debt, higher mortgage bills.
Global Bonds Slide Once Again as Inflation Curbs Rate-Cut Hopes
Global bond investors are coming to terms with the likelihood that interest rates are going to stay high for the foreseeable future.
Dell Escapes Nvidia’s Shadow as Its Own AI Tailwinds Accelerate
Dell Technologies Inc. shares have been acting like market-leader Nvidia Corp. of late, and investors are betting the company will see a similar boost from artificial intelligence.
Stablecoin Risks Grow as Congress Dithers
Congress keeps talking about regulating stablecoins but doing nothing. It’s a lapse that poses growing dangers to investors, the financial system and even (perhaps) national security.
The Fed Thinks It’s Fighting Inflation. Think Again.
To a large and under-appreciated extent, the job of the US Federal Reserve entails chasing an elusive number: r*, or the neutral short-term interest rate. When the Fed’s target rate is above r*, it should restrict growth. When it’s below, it should stimulate economic activity.
Dimon Says ‘Could Be Hell to Pay’ If Private Credit Sours
Jamie Dimon said he expects problems to emerge in private credit and warned that “there could be hell to pay,” particularly as retail clients gain access to the booming asset class.
Treasuries Steady After Selloff Ahead of GDP and Inflation Data
Treasuries pared this week’s sharp losses Thursday after inflation gauges in the US first-quarter economic growth data were unexpectedly revised lower.
Bullish Nvidia Trade Soars as Day Traders Bet on Leveraged ETFs
The latest Nvidia Corp. frenzy is fueling an unprecedented rally in the booming industry of leveraged-up ETFs as retail traders go all-in on the world’s “most important stock.”
Play Video Fed’s Beige Book Points to Modest Growth in US Economy, Prices
The US economy expanded at a “slight or modest” pace across most regions since early April and consumers pushed back against higher prices, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts.
Why Nvidia, Not Solar, Has a Place in the Sun
The semiconductor industry is a strange field. Play your cards right, and you can turn $60 billion or so of annual revenue into a $2.62 trillion business. Do things differently, and roughly the same volume of sales might translate into $44 billion of market capitalization.
The US Economy Won’t Be Immune to High Rates Forever
In spite of the highest Federal Reserve policy rates in two decades, the US economy grew about 2.5% last year, unemployment remains low and stocks are near all-time highs, leading many observers to conclude that the economy must have become less interest-rate sensitive — and probably needs permanently high benchmark rates to prevent overheating.
Goldman Racks Up $21 Billion for Its Largest Private Credit Pool
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has put together $21 billion for private credit wagers, its biggest war chest yet for Wall Street’s buzziest asset class.
BlackRock’s $20 Billion ETF Is Now the World’s Largest Bitcoin Fund
BlackRock Inc.’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has become the world’s largest fund for the original cryptocurrency, amassing almost $20 billion in total assets since listing in the US at the start of the year.
Slow-Moving Property Crisis Means Averting a Greater One
The big news in the $20 trillion US property market last week was that, for the first time since the financial crisis, investors suffered losses on top-rated bonds backed by the mortgage on an office building.
Weight-Loss Drugs Are Coming to Bite a Sugar Industry in Denial
In a room filled with more than 800 sugar traders, Sally Lyons Wyatt, an executive at consumer researcher Circana, had an important message to deliver: Ozempic is coming for your industry.
The ‘Everyone Wins’ Stock Market Is Dead — Ask Target
Target Corp.’s sales slump last quarter marked the latest example of supposed softening in US consumption, making some stock-market investors jittery that recession could still be in the cards.
A Little Regulation Is Just What Crypto Needs
Sometimes industries want to be regulated. It’s not that they favor all of the associated restrictions, but that regulation means legitimation. The mere act of passing laws circumscribes some activities as deserving of legal protection.
The Slowdown in US Electric Vehicle Sales Looks More Like a Blip
After an underwhelming start to the year for US electric-vehicle sales, it might seem easy to conclude that the boom times are over. Sales were flat in the first quarter, Ford dramatically scaled back expansion plans and Tesla laid off 10% of its global workforce.
Wall Street Moves to Fastest Settlement of Trades in a Century
The US stock market is finally as fast as it was about a hundred years ago.
Darpa-Backed Startup Seeks $70 Million to Join AI Chip Goldrush
A Silicon Valley startup backed by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is seeking at least $70 million more from investors in its quest to to develop an ultra-efficient chip for artificial intelligence technology, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg.
Options Traders Pile Into Big Short on India Volatility
In a market that’s captured the attention of global finance for allegedly making $1 billion for Jane Street Group, many trading firms are employing a relatively simple strategy: short volatility.
Coinbase’s Supreme Court Loss Is Its Own Fault
To hear the words “Coinbase” and “Supreme Court” in the same breath likely inspires thoughts of the justices jousting over cryptocurrency. But this week’s decision in Coinbase v. Suski is a reminder that even in our clever new era, old principles of contract law often hold sway.
Nvidia Clears the Way for AI Stocks to Keep Powering Higher
Nvidia Corp. just gave the green light to traders betting that the rally in artificial intelligence computing stocks — not to mention its own — has room to run.
Nvidia Stock Surges as Sales Forecast Delivers on AI Hopes
Nvidia Corp., the chipmaker at the center of an artificial intelligence boom, jumped in premarket trading after a bullish sales forecast showed that AI computing spending remains strong.
Fed’s Inflation Debate Shifts to How Much Goods Prices Can Drop
As Federal Reserve officials stare down the last mile in their campaign against inflation, one key question is becoming increasingly central to the debate: Will goods prices continue to fall?
JPMorgan Hunts for Private Credit Firm to Grow in Hot Sector
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is on the hunt to buy a private credit firm to augment its $3.6 trillion asset management arm, as the biggest US bank makes more inroads into Wall Street’s buzziest sector.
The Rise of the Disposable Car
Modern cars are equipped with heaps of electronic devices, many of which are designed to reduce the frequency and severity of accidents. But there’s a catch: The high cost of repairing these systems may mean the vehicle is written-off, or totaled, following a crash.
The New Dream Job Is Working for … the Government?
One of the best parts of being a young college graduate, and naïve to the grim realities of the working world, is being deluded about how great your career will be. Maybe you’ll found the next Nvidia, or win the Nobel Prize in your field, or start a charity that will make the world a better place.
Dollarization or Not, Argentina’s Future Will Be Expensive
The good news is that President Javier Milei seems to be backing away from plans to dollarize the Argentine economy. That is also the bad news.
Hey Target, Walmart Is Coming for You
What happens when the world’s biggest retailer decides it wants what’s yours? Target is about to find out.
Biden Doubles Down on His Student-Loans Mistake
With his signature student-loan-forgiveness plan struck down by the Supreme Court, President Joe Biden is pushing to cancel debts by other means. His latest proposal aims to relieve nearly 30 million borrowers, on top of those who’ve received forgiveness under previous initiatives.
Private Equity Is Bad for Your Health
The bankruptcy of Steward Health has become the latest cautionary tale about private equity’s involvement in health care. Cerberus Capital Management’s purchase in 2010 of several Massachusetts-based nonprofit hospitals was meant to be a life preserver for the struggling chain, but instead its woes deepened, compromising patient care.
Colleges Ramp Up Debt Sales in Frenzied Race for New Students
US university students are up to their ears in debt. And, increasingly, so are many US colleges.
The Fed’s Uniformity on Rates Comes With Risks
Whether traditionally thought of as “hawks” or “doves,” Federal Reserve officials have recently converged to notable uniformity in their policy signaling of high interest rates for longer. This has come at a time when more Wall Street analysts are embracing a wider band of uncertainty for their projections of economic growth and inflation.
Credit Bulls Say Bonds Hold Biggest Edge Over Stocks in Decades
Credit bulls are pointing at a set of metrics to show that high-grade bonds have rarely been this cheap, burnishing the appeal of corporate debt at a time when it’s offering little upside over government securities.
Nvidia Is the Final Hurdle for Mega Tech’s Earnings Victory Lap
A surprisingly strong earnings season for big tech reaches its grand finale Wednesday afternoon when Nvidia Corp., the artificial intelligence chipmaking giant, reports its results and gives a much anticipated outlook that could set the tone for the second half of the year.
Slowing EV Sales Are Upending Banker Climate Strategies
Electric vehicles have swiftly gone from a rare bright spot in the fight against climate change to a cause for concern.
Biden Widens Student Loan Relief to More Than 10% of Borrowers
More than one in 10 Americans with federal student loans have been approved for some measure of debt relief under President Joe Biden, the White House said, as it announced a new round of forgiveness.
What a World Growing Older Fast Means for Investing
Idanna Appio spent 15 years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysing the history of sovereign debt crises. Now, as a fund manager at the $138 billion First Eagle Investments, she’s reached a conclusion: US Treasury bonds are too risky to hold.
Holistic AI Is Now H, a New French Startup With $220 Million Out of the Gate
A French artificial intelligence startup, simply called H, has raised $220 million in initial financing from a slew of billionaires and venture capitalists on the promise of building the next generation of powerful AI tools.
Fed’s Waller Needs ‘Several More’ Months of Good Inflation to Cut Rates
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he needs to see “several more” months of good inflation figures to begin interest-rate cuts, though recent data suggest progress has likely resumed.
Where Do Shadow Banks Get Their Money? Your Deposits
Shadow banking is back. A constellation of less-regulated intermediaries — from insurers to private investment funds — is increasingly taking on the traditional business of banks, making trillions of dollars in risky loans and occupying a central role in the economy.
Bond Rally Built on Inflation Euphoria Faces UK Reality Check
A global bond rally ignited by signs that inflation in the world’s largest economy is finally slowing once again faces a reality check this week.
Speedier Wall Street Trades Are Putting Global Finance On Edge
When US markets reopen next Tuesday after the long weekend, everything will likely seem normal. It’s only after the close and in the following days that any cracks are expected to appear.
Copper’s Boom Story Has Some Truth — and Lots of Hogwash
When Thomas Edison wired his own house in Menlo Park, then a tiny village in New Jersey, he fabricated a primitive cable. As insulation he chose a mix of asphalt, linseed oil and beeswax; for the core, copper wire.
Private Equity Is No Place for Your Nest Egg
Retirement is expensive. If you’re lucky, yours will last a few decades, and you’ll be earning no or very little income. So if you want to have enough money when you retire, you basically have three options: Save more, take more risk with your investments, or work longer.
America Is Joining Its Frenemies Back in the Fossil Fuel Club
Geography, it’s often said, is destiny. The paths nations follow though history are written like a script on the patterns of their rocks, rivers, plains and coasts, in ways that often confound the views of the people who inhabit them. It’s rare for a country to escape that geological fate.
One of the Last Big Bears on Wall Street Turns Bullish on US Stocks
One of Wall Street’s most prominent bears has just turned positive on the outlook for US stocks.
Nevermind Those EVs — Oil Demand Keeps Growing
Like clockwork, the commodities market worries in May about the strength of oil demand heading into the northern hemisphere summer holiday. Nervousness about the seasonal pickup in oil consumption abounds.
JPMorgan Asset Revives Government-Focused Money Market Fund
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset management arm has created a new European money market fund focused on public debt, a kind of investment that largely disappeared when interest rates were negative.
To Save Venezuela, Give Maduro an Exit Strategy
Hopes for regime change in Venezuela have surged in recent weeks, the result of a coalescing political opposition and apparent divisions within President Nicolás Maduro’s ruling socialist party ahead of July 28 elections.
San Francisco's Startups Are on the Mend
The fortunes of Silicon Valley startups rose and fell together like never before in recent years. Partly that was due to the indiscriminate tidal wave of money that washed through venture capital, but it’s also because many business-to-business software startups are closely connected as each other’s customers.
Millennium, Point72 and Elliott Are Among Bitcoin ETF Buyers
When it comes to Bitcoin ETFs, it’s not just the retail trading crowd that’s taking the plunge. It’s now clear that hedge funds, pension funds and banks have also sprinkled capital into the exchange-traded funds after their blockbuster debut that was more than a decade in the making.
David Tepper Scoops Up Alibaba as Hedge Funds Hunt for Bargains in China
Billionaire investor David Tepper loaded up on beaten-down Chinese stocks last quarter while reducing stakes in high-flying US tech firms, leading hedge fund managers who are slowly warming up to China amid a record gap in valuations between the two markets.
Bitcoin’s Correlation With Tech Stocks Jumps to Highest Level Since August
Bitcoin was lumped in with other speculative investments during the run-up of the Federal Reserve’s last tightening cycle, slumping on expectations higher interest rates would damp the appetite for risk.
Treat Buy Now, Pay Later Loans Like Real Debt
It’s been close to two years since the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau indicated it was looking to tighten regulations on popular “buy now, pay later” services. Since then, the sector has grown to $300 billion.
The Future of Robots Is Coming on Two Legs
Most people have seen robots in human form. The Hollywood version has starred in movies for decades. Now there are videos on the internet of real bipedal robots, whether it’s Elon Musk’s Optimus or the incredibly flexible two-legged robot from Boston Dynamics. Agility Robotics has one with legs that bend back at the knees like a flamingo.
Google’s New Search Engine Is Bad News for the Web Economy
For more than two decades, a simple handshake has shaped how people find information online. It works like this: Websites allow Google’s web crawler to index their content so it can appear in search results.
Where’s the Bond Market’s Breaking Point? It’s Not $35 Trillion
Everyone is worried about the excessively high level of US government debt. Everyone, that is, except America’s creditors.
Wall Street’s E-Trading Boom Adds New Fuel to Private-Debt Mania
The rise of electronic trading and growing popularity of portfolio trading has had an unintended consequence for the US corporate bond market: making private credit even more attractive.
BlackRock’s Rieder Says Cut, Not Hike, Would Tame US Inflation
BlackRock Inc.’s Rick Rieder has some advice that bucks conventional wisdom: The best way for the Federal Reserve to temper inflation will be to lower rates, not hold them higher.
Revival of Meme-Stock Frenzy Points to a Frothy US Stock Market
This week’s meme-stock pop is a sign that US equity markets are frothy and potentially peaking, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.
Hot Commodity Silver Outpaces Gold as Buying Gains Momentum
Gold’s record-setting rally may have captured the headlines this year, but it’s silver that’s running harder and faster as the less glamorous metal benefits from robust financial and industrial demand.
The Dow Hit 40,000. It Doesn’t Matter
Huge news from the markets today: The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 40,000 points for the first time. The number is splashed across financial news sources the world over (including Bloomberg), even though the index closed back below the threshold by the end of trading.
Jamie Dimon Sees ‘Lot of Inflationary Forces in Front of Us’
The JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief executive officer said significant price pressures are still influencing the US economy and may mean interest rates will be higher for longer than many investors are expecting. Dimon cited costs linked to the green economy, re-militarization, infrastructure spending, trade disputes and large fiscal deficits.
US Housing Starts, Permits Fall Short as Mortgage Rates Rise
New US home construction rose by less than forecast in April and permits for new activity dropped, suggesting the recent rise in mortgage rates is giving builders pause.
The Inflation Battle Is Far From Over
There was white smoke over the Bureau of Labor Statistics, sort of, on Wednesday morning. The key measures of consumer price inflation for April confirmed expectations for a slight decline, and alleviated growing anxiety over a possible reacceleration. Risk assets across the world spent the rest of the day exhaling deeply.
The Long, Slow Decline in Fund Manager Fees May Be Ending
Active exchange-traded funds have seen record inflows in recent years, taking assets under management to $630 billion.
Walmart Beat Inflation. Now It Must Offer More Than Deals
Aside from the big box bloodbath of 2022, when an abrupt halt in buying left Walmart Inc. sitting on too many sweatpants and patio sets, the world’s biggest retailer has been one of the beneficiaries from inflation.
JPMorgan Trading Clients Are Buying Commodities on AI Build-Out
As artificial intelligence rolls out around the globe, will it drive inflation or deflation? The answer is both — one and then the other, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s new global co-heads of sales and research.
The Great ‘Vibecession’ Rages Through an $11 Trillion Stock Boom
Time and again, Jerome Powell has made it clear. Financial conditions, the Federal Reserve’s key lever for cooling the US economy, are tight.
Here Are the Key Takeaways From US CPI Report for April
Here are the key takeaways from the US CPI report for April released Wednesday.
The Dollar Is on a Rampage, But Not on the Attack
An unfortunate byproduct of the dollar’s unexpected surge has been the revival of a bogey that just won’t die: currency wars. The phrase gets thrown about during periods of dislocation in the foreign-exchange market and has the beauty of meaning whatever the person who utters it desires.
Higher for Longer? Rates Could Be Higher Forever
Our holiday from history has come to an end. I am referring not to world peace but to the zero-interest-rate environment so many people expected would last forever.
Alphabet AI Event Will Show Whether Blowout Results Were a Fluke
Alphabet Inc.’s recent results raised hopes that the Google parent can still be a big player in artificial intelligence. Now it has a chance to prove it.
Powell Reiterates Fed Likely to Keep Rates Higher for Longer
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank needs to be patient as it awaits more evidence that high interest rates are curbing inflation, doubling-down on the need to keep borrowing costs elevated.
Overdue Bills Are Rising With US Debt Delinquencies, Fed Survey Shows
US household debt has reached a record and more borrowers are struggling to keep up.
Bond Traders Await US Inflation Data Behind Half of 2024’s Rout
Nothing has been setting the US bond market’s direction this year more than the monthly inflation figures. This week will be no exception.
Goldman’s ‘No Return’ Market May Still Surprise
Wall Street strategists are worried that US stocks are on a trip to nowhere, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go along for the ride.
Nvidia Rivals Gold as Shield Against Inflation, Survey Shows
The biggest US tech stocks are not only a bet on innovation but also a possible hedge against inflation, according to some respondents in the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.
Ozempic Maker Novo Nordisk Plans Bond Sale to Fund Expansion
Novo Nordisk A/S plans to sell bonds for the first time in more than two years to help finance its large program to expand production of its blockbuster treatments.
Tariffs and Timidity Are Driving US Carmakers into a Ditch
Faced with the greatest challenge of the 21st century, America is giving up.
Where’s the Bond Market’s Breaking Point? It’s Not $35 Trillion
Everyone is worried about the excessively high level of US government debt. Everyone, that is, except America’s creditors.
This Round of Inflation Data Will Matter Greatly
Here we go again. Brace for the latest dose of critical data on US inflation over the next three days, as the New York Federal Reserve publishes its monthly survey of consumers’ inflation expectations Monday, followed by the Labor Department’s report on producer prices Tuesday and consumer prices Wednesday.
DeepMind CEO Targets $100 Billion-Plus AI Drug Discovery Business With AlphaFold
Google DeepMind has released a new version of AlphaFold, a landmark tool for predicting protein structures, that puts the artificial intelligence software on a path to make breakthroughs in biology research and bolster a business that Google’s AI chief says could be worth north of $100 billion.
Microsoft’s Hedge Against OpenAI Makes Perfect Sense
When Microsoft Corp. invested more than $10 billion for a chunk of OpenAI, scientists inside its storied research division were rankled about being shoved aside for a newer player from outside the company.
Druckenmiller Sold Some Nvidia Stock. Don’t Panic.
In the US stock market, investors have been conditioned to hold onto their winners. The Magnificent Seven were so-named because most of them — both individually and collectively — have delivered consistently extraordinary returns for a decade or so.
We Actually Need to Build More Luxury Homes. Here’s Why
There is broad agreement that the US housing market needs more homes . There is also broad agreement that affordability needs to improve. But it doesn't necessarily follow that we should build more affordable homes.
Oil Extends Two-Day Climb on Renewed Optimism for US Rate Cuts
Oil advanced for a third day to trade at a one-week high as US jobs data supported the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, buoying risk assets including crude.
Apple to Power AI Tools With In-House Server Chips This Year
Apple Inc. will deliver some of its upcoming artificial intelligence features this year via data centers equipped with its own in-house processors, part of a sweeping effort to infuse its devices with AI capabilities.
Zuckerberg’s Free AI Is a Clever Form of Bait
There’s a persistent mystery about Mark Zuckerberg, and it’s not the one about his new chain necklace. The chief executive officer of Meta Platforms Inc. has spent billions of dollars building powerful artificial intelligence models and is giving that technology away for free.
Top Bond Forecasters Diverge as Fed Keeps the Market in Limbo
Anshul Pradhan and Stephen Stanley both saw the current US bond market coming. They just don’t agree on where it’s going.
Private Equity’s $3 Trillion Burden Sparks Hunt for Exit Options
As the market for initial public offerings bounces back after two lifeless years, investors who’ve been impatiently waiting for their payoff are finally getting some returns.
How to Fix America’s Cruel and Unusual Tax Code
It probably escaped your attention, but the Internal Revenue Service recently piloted a program to help Americans cope with their notoriously complex tax system.
Bezos, Zuckerberg Lead Magnificent Seven Insider Stock Sales
Insiders at the Magnificent Seven tech companies are following Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg in realizing gains from the stocks that have largely powered the boom in US equity markets.
It’s Dangerous to Stay Out of Stocks
Points of Return often argues for caution on stocks. It never argues to get out of them altogether. That’s because history demonstrates that over long time spans it’s very dangerous to be out of the market altogether.
Amazon Commits $9 Billion to Double Singapore Cloud Push
Amazon.com Inc. plans to spend $9 billion expanding its cloud computing infrastructure in Singapore, the latest global tech company to boost investment in Southeast Asia.
US Revokes Intel, Qualcomm Licenses to Sell Chips to Huawei
The US has revoked licenses allowing Huawei Technologies Co. to buy semiconductors from Qualcomm Inc. and Intel Corp., according to people familiar with the matter, further tightening export restrictions against the Chinese telecom equipment maker.
US to Triple Chipmaking Capacity by 2032, Industry Group Says
US chip production is poised to explode in coming years, helping ease a risky dependency on East Asia, according to a projection by the Semiconductor Industry Association.
Buffett Shouldn't Worry About Self-Driving Teslas
At last weekend’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. annual meeting, one shareholder asked Warren Buffett how his auto insurer Geico might fare in the event that autonomous-driving technology succeeds in slashing the number of accidents, as Tesla Inc.’s Elon Musk suggested it would on an earnings call last month.
Zero-Day Options Boom Will Only Grow Even As Some Investors Fear Disaster
Two years after Wall Street’s love affair with fast-twitch stock options began, Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey suggests the unprecedented boom still has room to run — even as almost half of respondents fear an eventual blowup.
At $2 Million Per Minute, Treasuries Mint Cash Like Never Before
For the first time in nearly a generation, fixed income is living up to its name.
Emerging-Market Optimism Hit by Fed as Currencies, Debt Sink
An April rout in emerging-market bonds and currencies has some former bulls turning negative on the outlook for the asset class.
Want to Reduce the Cost of Housing? Build More of It
When it comes to the current debate over housing affordability, I feel like my position has been clear and consistent: Twelve years ago, I wrote a book called The Rent Is Too Damn High. At the same time, I also have to admit that most Americans do not share my preferred solutions.
Bill Gross Is the Bond King, But Diversification Is Emperor
Gross was famous for squeezing out extra yield using corporate bonds, mortgages, derivatives and other instruments.
Apple Rallies Most in 18 Months on Upbeat Forecast, Buyback
Apple Inc. shares jumped the most in almost a year-and-a-half after the company posted stronger-than-expected sales last quarter and predicted a return to growth in the current period, sparking optimism that a slowdown is easing.
Treasuries Soar as Traders Pull Forward Fed Cuts After Jobs Miss
Treasuries surged and traders ramped up bets on how soon the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates this year after a US labor-market report trailed estimates.
Lagging Real Estate Stocks Have Dropped Too Far, Analysts Say
Wall Street analysts see a double-digit upside potential for the S&P 500’s biggest losers this year: real estate stocks.
Google and Microsoft Don’t Care About Fed’s 2% Inflation Goal
As the Federal Reserve acknowledges a setback in its inflation fight, one question looms large: Why hasn’t the economy slowed the way policymakers expected?
How Crazy Would It Be If Warren Buffett Bought Boeing?
Here’s a conversation starter ahead of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s annual meeting on Saturday: Warren Buffett should buy Boeing Co.
Bitcoin Faces Worst Month Since FTX Crash With ETF Demand Cooling
The prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates is weighing on crypto, underlined by deepening Bitcoin losses after the token’s worst monthly drop since the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire in November 2022.
Powell Keeps Rate Cuts on Table But Leaves Timing Less Certain
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept hopes alive for an interest-rate cut this year while acknowledging that a burst of inflation has reduced policymakers’ confidence that price pressures are ebbing.
Buffett Devotees Head to Omaha for First Meeting Without Munger
When Berkshire Hathaway Inc. devotees gather in Omaha on Saturday for its annual meeting, there will be a noticeable void on stage.
Index Funds Need to Be Passive, Not Political
The rise of index funds has provided millions of Americans with a cheaper and more efficient way to invest. With more than $23 trillion in assets between them, BlackRock Inc., Vanguard Group Inc. and State Street Corp. have become the top shareholders in many US-listed companies.
Wall Street’s ‘Macro Agnostic’ Tech Trade Shatters ETF Records
Investors are plowing into technology-tracking ETFs at a record clip as conviction builds that the market’s biggest stocks can thrive in almost any economic cycle.
Self-Driving Teslas Can’t Duck the US-China Silicon Curtain
What’s the value of a good story? $82 billion, to judge by Tesla Inc.’s 15% share price gain Monday.
Microsoft to Invest $1.7 Billion in Indonesia for AI, Cloud
Microsoft Corp. will invest $1.7 billion to build out cloud computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure in Indonesia, betting on Southeast Asia’s biggest economy to spur growth.
AI Faces Its ‘Oppenheimer Moment’ During Killer Robot Arms Race
Regulators who want to get a grip on an emerging generation of artificially intelligent killing machines may not have much time left to do so, governments were warned on Monday.
Once Unthinkable Nuclear Plant Revival Is a Reality in US Shift
A month after the US offered $1.5 billion to restart one shuttered nuclear power plant, there’s a growing sense among officials in the industry and government that it may not be the last.
Oil Producers Flush With Cash Cut Reliance on Funding Markets
Last year, the demand for loans from fossil-fuel companies fell 6% year-on-year and that followed a decline of 1% in 2022.
Amazon Earnings to Bring More Scrutiny For AI-Tethered Stocks
Amazon.com Inc.’s “show-me” moment will arrive on Tuesday when its earnings become the latest litmus test on appetite for heavy artificial intelligence spending.
Hong Kong Vies With US in Bitcoin ETF Market After Crypto’s Revival
A batch of exchange-traded funds investing directly in crypto debuted in Hong Kong on Tuesday, heralding potential competition for US Bitcoin products whose popularity stoked a record rally in the digital asset.
Goldman Sees Momentum Traders Buying Stocks in Every Scenario
Momentum traders are modeled to buy equities over the next week regardless of market direction, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk.
The Fed’s Quantitative Easing Program Cost Too Much
America’s experiment with quantitative easing is almost over. This week, the Federal Reserve will likely announce plans to slow the shrinkage of its balance sheet, foreboding the end of a long period in which it sought to stimulate the economy by holding large quantities of Treasury and mortgage securities.
Stocks Trade for 390 Minutes a Day. Increasingly, Only 10 Matter
The regular market for US equities runs for 390 minutes on a standard trading day. But at the rate things are going, eventually the last 10 might be the only ones that matter.
Bankers Doing Bond Deals Jolted by New Era of Issuer Clauses
Message to bond underwriters: Some big customers are sizing up your ESG credentials.
Why UK Giants Should Think Twice Before Ditching London Listing
The sorry state of Britain's equity markets has been well-documented. Across all UK indexes there have been just three initial public offerings so far this year after over 100 de-listings in 2023. The noise that this is only the beginning is getting louder.
Your Retirement Anxiety Can’t Be Cured Online
The often-cited goal of having a $1 million retirement nest egg needs to be retired itself. Adjusted for inflation , it would take nearly $1.9 million to have the same purchasing power today as in 1999, when the oldest of millennials were just turning 18.
Wall Street Humbled as Fast-Reversing Markets Confound the Pros
With inflation up, economic growth down and two-year Treasury yields testing 5%, Bill Gross sensed the music in markets was fading, and said it was time to get over the likes of the Magnificent Seven.
Alphabet Joins $2 Trillion Club as Results Show AI Strength
Alphabet Inc. closed decisively above a $2 trillion market capitalization for the first time on Friday, as a powerhouse earnings report reassured investors that the Google parent would be a major player in artificial intelligence.
Apple Intensifies Talks With OpenAI for iPhone Generative AI Features
Apple Inc. has renewed discussions with OpenAI about using the startup’s technology to power some new features coming to the iPhone later this year, according to people familiar with the matter.
Investors Seek Billions From SVB’s Husk. Why Regulators Refuse to Pay
The dust had barely settled after Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse last year when savvy investors began lining up for a big payout, based on a hastily written government press release.
Inflation Is Overshadowing US Economic Resilience, Hurting Biden
The US economy is resilient, and it’s bad news for Joe Biden.
Focus on the Right Inflation Data — Not Nightmare Scenarios
Markets are supposed to be forward-looking, so it’s a bit of a mystery that bonds sold off as dramatically as they did on evidence that bad first-quarter inflation was worse than previously understood.
A Strong Economy Doesn’t Necessarily Make the Fed’s Job Harder
The US economy expanded at a strong 3% last year, though growth slowed to a 1.6% annual rate in the first quarter with a drag from imports.
Fed’s Preferred Core Inflation Gauge Rose at Brisk Pace in March
The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying US inflation rose at a brisk pace in March, reinforcing concerns of persistent price pressures that are likely to delay any interest-rate cuts.
Jamie Dimon Has a Rival in Tech: Silicon Valley Bank
Since Silicon Valley Bank became the second-biggest failure in US history a year ago, other lenders have been trying to take its place in banking the fast-moving, entrepreneurial world of startups and tech companies.
Housing Will Get More Expensive Because of the Fed
It may seem counterintuitive to suggest that today’s high interest rates will fuel shelter inflation down the road. After all, the Federal Reserve has tightened monetary policy to stamp out price pressures in the economy.
High Yields Lure Buyers as US Sells $180 Billion of Treasuries
Demand for Treasuries is holding up as the US government floods the market with more than $180 billion of new debt this week, a testament to the appeal of high yields for shorter-term notes.
Microsoft, Alphabet Face a ‘Show Me’ Moment After Meta Misfire
The stakes are high as two of the biggest artificial intelligence players prepare to unveil results, a day after Meta Platforms Inc. alarmed investors with its forecast.
World’s Biggest Energy Traders Are Returning to Metals Markets
Some of the world’s biggest energy trading companies are returning to metals, years after getting burnt in the notoriously difficult markets.
Ray Dalio’s Famous Trade Is Sputtering, Investors Bailing
It was an irresistible pitch. Give us your money, executives at Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates and other hedge funds said, and we’ll funnel it into a money-minting, sure-thing strategy for the long haul.
Want to Enjoy Your Retirement? Consider Delaying It
The bad news is that most of us will need to work longer. The good news is that, if we do it right, most of us will want to.
The ‘Finternet’ Will Be Here Soon — Are You Ready?
Finance in the 21st century is still too costly, and clubby. Besides, when compared with the instantaneous gratification in other aspects of our digital lives, money appears to move too slowly online.
AI Search Startup Perplexity Valued at $1 Billion in Funding Round
Perplexity AI, a startup using artificial intelligence to build a search engine to compete with Alphabet Inc.’s Google, has raised about $63 million in a new funding round that values the company at more than $1 billion.
Tesla Stock in ‘No Man’s Land’ After 43% Rout Ahead of Earnings
Elon Musk is known to challenge the status quo — and that’s exactly what Tesla Inc.’s investors are worried about right now.
New US Home Sales Jump to Highest Level Since September
Sales of new homes in the US bounced back broadly in March as an abundance of inventory helped drive prices lower.
Don’t Exit Stocks as If You’re a Pension Fund
Rising interest rates and the fear of giving back stock market gains are pushing pension fund managers to move capital from stocks to bonds.
Inflation’s Last Mile Will Test the Fed
The Federal Reserve’s difficult task suddenly looks even harder. The central bank’s goal has been to restrain demand enough to push inflation gently back to its 2% target without tipping the economy into a recession.
Alphabet’s Cash Boom Is Raising Dividend Hopes on Wall Street
Alphabet Inc. is bringing in so much cash that hopes are rising it will take a page out of the Meta Platforms Inc. playbook and start paying a dividend.
US Dollar’s Extended Reign Delivers Stark Wake-Up Call for Markets
The world’s financial markets are encountering a force they didn’t bet on for 2024: A strong dollar is back and looks set to stay.
Climate Change Is Stunting Our Economic Growth
Imagine you were running for king of the world on a platform of slashing economic growth by 20% forever. You’d be lucky to get your own family to vote for you. And yet humanity insists on running the global economy on fossil fuels that are doing exactly that sort of damage.
How JPMorgan’s Cash Call Beat Bank of America
When the Federal Reserve flooded the economy with cash during the Covid-19 pandemic it exacerbated a problem for America’s largest banks: What to do with all the extra deposits.
Copper Homes in on $10,000 a Ton as Supply Angst Continues
Copper traded near $10,000 a ton, hitting a new two-year high on its way, as investors continue to pile in on a bet that miners will struggle to service a surge in demand for the bellwether industrial metal.
Yellen Meets Japan, South Korea Counterparts in Bid to Boost Economic Ties
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged the concerns of Japan and South Korea over sharp declines in their currencies during a trilateral meeting of finance chiefs that may offer Tokyo and Seoul more scope to defend the yen and the won.
It’s Time for Earnings to Prove the Bulls Right
Ben Graham, the value investor and Warren Buffett mentor, famously said the market is like a voting machine in the short run, but “in the long run it becomes a weighing machine.”
Too Many Passive Investors? There’s No Such Thing
US markets are doing much better than markets everywhere else, but no one seems to know why. Yes, there are theories: Perhaps it’s the promise of AI, although it remains to be seen how AI will play out and who will profit.
Jamie Dimon Has a New Vision for Money in an AI World
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon makes no secret that his firm is all-in on artificial intelligence. Now, the head of the world’s biggest bank is laying out his vision for the future of money in an AI world.
King Dollar Risks Becoming Greenback the Bully
When does a strong dollar become too strong? “Right now” would be the cry of most emerging-market currencies, not to mention policymakers in Japan. Even the European Central Bank says it’s paying attention to the foreign exchange market.
Hedge Funds Sell Off Winning Energy Stocks to Buy Soaring Oil
With energy stocks trading near all-time highs and oil climbing as well, hedge funds think they’ve found a trade to capitalize: Sell the shares and pour the profits into buying more crude.
Wall Street Takes New Role as Matchmaker in Private Credit Boom
Banks have found another way to fight back after private lenders have grabbed ever larger pieces of the lucrative business of financing leveraged buyouts.
US Yields at 2024 Highs Lure Buyers Even as Shorts Dominate
The highest US yields since November are beginning to attract some opportunistic buyers, even as negative sentiment remains firmly entrenched throughout the Treasury bond market.
Powell’s US Rates Warning Means Headaches for Rest of the World
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is making life tougher for his peers around the world as the prospect of higher-for-longer US interest rates reduces room for easier policy elsewhere.
US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Rises to a Four-Month High of 7.13%
US mortgage rates climbed to a four-month high last week, potentially signaling a bumpier recovery for the residential real estate market.
TSMC Capex Outlook Key to Next Phase of $340 Billion Stock Rally
With Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. still trading at pedestrian valuations even after surging to a record high, there is potential for its upcoming results to drive the stock even higher.
Crypto Can Turn Pro With a Little Help From Congress
Last July, the House Financial Services Committee approved two major pieces of legislation aimed at creating a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry, the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act and the Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act.
The 2% Inflation Target Regime Should Now Be Retired: Marcus Ashworth
With the end of great inflation scare in sight, it's time the central bank hive mind contemplated what it might learn from the failure of its economic models.
El-Erian Says World ‘Frozen’ by Strong Dollar, High US Rates
Policymakers around the world are struggling to confront a surging greenback and lofty US interest rates, according to Mohamed El-Erian.
Biden Has Lost the Plot on Student Debt Relief
As he announced his latest round of student loan forgiveness last week — the previous one was just last month — President Joe Biden was greeted with an unpleasant reminder of why his policy is not only ill-considered but also ill-timed.
It’s Suddenly Lonely Being a Dove on Fed Policy. So Be It.
Fixed-income markets are back in a tizzy over inflation, thanks to the combination of rising risks for energy prices and strong retail sales data — both of which come on the heels of a higher-than-expected consumer price index last week.
Treasury Yields Jump to New 2024 Highs After Hot US Retail Sales
Most US Treasury yields climbed to new year-to-date highs, with the 2-year note’s approaching 5%, after hot retail sales data further eroded investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rate cuts this year.
US Regional Banks Dramatically Step Up Loans to Oil and Gas
A group of US regional banks is ratcheting up lending to oil, gas and coal clients, grabbing market share as bigger European rivals back away.
China Industrial Overcapacity Has Peaked, EIU Report Says
China’s overall manufacturing overcapacity has peaked as global demand picks up in consumer sectors, the Economist Intelligence Unit said, predicting trade tensions will persist due to Chinese companies’ rising competitiveness.
JPMorgan Strategists Say Earnings Unlikely to Boost Lofty Stocks
Don’t bank on an upbeat corporate earnings season to drive equities higher as much of the optimism is already priced in following the record-breaking rally this year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists.
Why Everyone in Finance Is Getting Ripped
Graham Ambrose has never felt stronger. He can barbell back squat 145kg (320 lbs) for four sets of six repetitions and bench-press more than 100kg for a single rep. His friends and colleagues notice that his clothes fit tighter and he’s fond of posting mirror selfies on Instagram.
Growth From Mergers? Here’s What You Want to Hear
Everyone says that mergers and acquisitions mostly fail. Now Bain & Co. brings a challenge to the received wisdom.
Cathie Wood Muscles Into ChatGPT Boom With New OpenAI Stake
Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management has announced that it holds a stake in Silicon Valley artificial intelligence darling OpenAI, a bet that the nascent AI industry will remake the tech landscape.
Enjoy Cheaper Rent While You Can. It Won’t Last.
he current state of the market for renters is akin to being in the eye of a multi-year hurricane. Rents surged in 2021 and 2022, driving a wave of apartment construction that helped to stabilize or even lower prices this year.
Your Plug-In Hybrid SUV Won’t Save the Planet
Back when the electric vehicles revolution appeared unshakable and Tesla Inc. was valued at more than $1 trillion, few of us gave much thought to hybrids. But amid consumer wariness about EVs’ driving range and insufficient public recharging infrastructure, vehicles that combine a combustion engine and electric motor are back in fashion, at least for now.
Apple Signal of AI Intent Unleashes $112 Billion Stock Surge
The stock market has punished Apple Inc. this year for failing to offer a vision of where its future growth will come from. The shares caught a bid Thursday after the tech giant took a step toward providing an answer.
U-Turn on Fed Rate Cut Bets Wipes Out Last Year’s Bond Gains
Investors wagering on an extension of last year’s global bond gains have been served a harsh reality check.
Nuclear Medicine Is Big Pharma’s New Target in Cancer Race
As pharma giants spend billions on acquisitions of startups developing new ways to harness radiation in the fight against cancer, the chief executive officer of Perspective Therapeutics Inc. found himself getting top billing at two different industry gatherings this week.
How China Beat the US in the Great EV Race
The US is somehow home to the most valuable electric vehicle producer in the world and, simultaneously, an also-ran in the race for EVs. How did that happen?
I Turned Down My Dream College. More Kids Should Do the Same.
Choosing a school that enables you to graduate with the least amount of debt, or, even better, with no debt at all, is a message more students need to hear.
Fed Faces a Big Risk, But It’s Not the One Many Think
I have been arguing for almost a year now, here and elsewhere, that US consumer price inflation would become sticky after a period of favorable disinflation going into the end of 2023. Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected data release, the third in a row, is evidence that this scenario is indeed unfolding.
Big Bank Earnings to Test Stocks’ Market-Trouncing Resurgence
The biggest US bank stocks have soared over the past six months, outpacing the S&P 500’s gains. But whether they can maintain that momentum is the big question entering earnings season.
If US Inflation Reflected Rising Home Insurance Costs, It’d Be Even Higher
If the rising price of homeowners insurance were factored into the US Consumer Price Index — a key metric of inflation — it could have added 80 basis points, or about 0.8%, to last year’s CPI increase of 3.4%, according to an analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence.
Biden’s Battle Against Inflation Gets Tougher With Latest Data
A third consecutive month of higher-than-expected inflation data dealt a double-barreled blow to Joe Biden’s political prospects ahead of November’s election, exacerbating concerns voters could punish him over high prices and delaying hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts the president has predicted.
Powell’s Soft-Landing Dream In Danger as Traders Hedge Inflation
Signs that inflation has yet to release its grip on markets have simmered for weeks. Now they’re boiling over after Wednesday’s hotter-than-forecast consumer price index sent stocks and bonds reeling.
Meta Trades at a Discount to Magnificent Seven After $1 Trillion AI Rally
Meta Platforms Inc.’s record-breaking, artificial intelligence-fueled rally has added $1 trillion in market value since its darkest days of 2022, and yet by some perspectives it’s still trading at a discount.
The Four-Day Work Week Is Decades Away
Some big technological innovations promise to make people more productive, but a four-day work week will not be the norm anytime soon. And legislation imposing it over the next four years would harm the economy.
Sorry, Home Sellers: The 6% Commission Isn’t Going Anywhere
Negotiation is an essential part of buying or selling a home. But for nearly a century, there’s been one part of the process where haggling doesn’t fly: the 5% to 6% standard commission charged by US realtors.
US Core CPI Tops Forecasts Again, Likely Delaying Fed Rate Cuts
A measure of underlying US inflation topped forecasts for a third straight month, heralding a fresh wave of price pressures that will likely delay any Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts until later in the year.
Bond Trader Places Record Futures Bet on Eve of Inflation Data
A block trade in US short-term interest-rate futures Tuesday was the biggest on record and helped drive gains for the Treasury market.
Extreme Market Swings Dominate as Hot Economy, Oil Feed Anxiety
A steady march higher in markets was snapped by a stretch of jarring volatility as traders gave hints there’s a limit to their appetite for hot economic data.
Google Shows AI Model Is Enterprise-Ready After Gemini Mishaps
Google unveiled a host of updates to its artificial intelligence offerings for cloud computing customers, emphasizing that the technology is safe and ready for use in the corporate realm, despite recent stumbles in consumer-facing tools.
Biden Pursues Student-Debt Relief for About 26 Million Americans
President Joe Biden’s alternative student-debt relief plan could forgive loans for as many as 26 million Americans, a far-reaching initiative that will be tested by the same challenges that beset his original program struck down by the Supreme Court.
Blackstone $10 Billion Deal Is Latest Bet Property Near Lows
Blackstone Inc. struck a roughly $10 billion deal for an apartment landlord in the latest sign that the real estate investor sees a ripe moment to pour money into the property market.
The Odds of $100 Oil Are Rising as Supply Shocks Convulse the Market
When oil jumped above $90 a barrel just days ago, military tensions between Israel and Iran were the immediate trigger. But the rally’s foundations went deeper — to global supply shocks that are intensifying fears of a commodity-driven inflation resurgence.
Dimon Likens AI’s Transformational Potential to the Steam Engine
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said artificial intelligence may be the biggest issue his bank is grappling with, likened its potential impact to that of the steam engine and said the technology could “augment virtually every job.”
Wall Street Searches for AI Winners Across Emerging Markets
Some of the world’s biggest money managers are searching for the next wave of artificial intelligence winners beyond the US.
Yellen Implores China to Rethink Economic Growth Strategy
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen implored Beijing’s top leaders to fundamentally rethink their economic growth strategy, as she wrapped up a high-stakes trip to China that’s been a balancing act in strengthening bilateral ties while delivering stark criticisms.
How You Can Avoid Getting Lost in the Land of the Titans
The only way to outperform an index is to be different from that index in the right way. For the last few years, there has only been one way to do that. But if the Titans tank, if they flatline or even if they are just joined in their bull market by more sectors and companies, there will be many more.
Beaten-Down Bond Traders Are Betting Jobs Data Means More Losses
A rough start to the year for bond traders risks getting worse with the release of key US employment data on Friday. Treasury yields remain near their highest levels of 2024 ahead of the report, which is forecast to show that solid jobs growth moderated in March.
El-Erian Sees Two Fed Rate Cuts This Year Despite Strong Data
Mohamed El-Erian still expects Federal Reserve officials to cut interest rates twice this year, even as a blockbuster jobs report pushes traders to rethink the timing.
Summers Says Hot Jobs Data Show Neutral Fed Rate ‘Much Higher’
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that the surge in US payrolls in March illustrates that the Federal Reserve is well off in its estimate of where the neutral interest rate is, and cautioned against any move to lower rates in June.
American Exceptionalism Is on Display in the Bond Market
Many of us have our favorite economic and financial indicators. I’m referring to those indicators that don’t get a lot - if any - attention from the television channels geared toward finance and markets and yet can provide important insights. One of my favorites - the divergence between key US and German fixed-income benchmarks - is at a notable level.
The ‘Great Wealth Transfer’ Is a Delusion
The Great Wealth Transfer sounds like a heist film or a game show. It’s neither.
Wall Street Just Doesn’t Get Retirement
As a retirement economist — not to be confused with a retired economist, which are rare — I often find myself talking to Wall Street types who happen to be in charge of a lot of other people’s money.
Gold Retreats From Record as Traders Weigh Fedspeak, Await Data
Gold retreated after hitting a fresh record as investors weighed remarks from policymakers ahead of a key jobs report due Friday.
Think UK Stocks Are Cheap? Try Buying a Whole Company
Foreign acquirers — mainly from the US — are targeting UK companies again. This time they’re being forced to pay up. Forget the apparent cheap valuations of London stocks when a handful of shares are traded. Buying an entire UK company means burning a hole in your pocket.
Hey Google, Please Set YouTube Free
Shares in Google-parent Alphabet Inc. have lagged competitors so far this year. There is worry its faltering progress in artificial intelligence means the outlook’s not so hot for its core business of selling ads alongside search results. But one part of its empire, minimally detailed on the company’s filings like some side hustle, shows no sign of being knocked from its throne.
Winners of 2023 Bank Crisis Are Finding the New Spotlight Harsh
Two regional banks emerged as winners last year as deposit runs shook their industry. Their fortunes have diverged since: New York Community Bancorp Inc. required a frantic rescue last month. First Citizens BancShares Inc. has stretched its rally to more than double in value.
Fed Blocks Tough Global Climate-Risk Rules for Wall Street Banks
US regulators, led by the Federal Reserve, have thwarted a push to make climate risk a focus of global financial rules, according to people familiar with the matter.
Yellen Eyes Valuable Asset on China Trip: Insight on Economy
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and her team are hoping their second visit to China in nine months, building on a series of bilateral talks, will yield valuable clues to the true state of the world’s No. 2 economy — even if no significant policy agreements are anticipated.
The Fed Is Wrong About How Low Interest Rates Will Go
Financial markets and the US Federal Reserve remain in disagreement on a subject crucial to asset prices and economic growth: how low interest rates will eventually go.
Powell Says Fed Has Time to Assess Data Before Deciding to Cut
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled policymakers will wait for clearer signs of lower inflation before cutting interest rates, even though a recent bump in prices didn’t alter their broader trajectory.
An AI-Rally for Software Makers Will Demand Investor Patience
Investors need more patience for the euphoria about artificial intelligence to lift the stocks of software makers.
Bond Traders Load Up on Bearish Wagers as Rate-Cut Odds Dwindle
Bond traders are piling into bearish bets, fueling a selloff in benchmark Treasury securities, as fresh evidence of robust US growth triggers a recalibration of expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate policy.
Health Care Is Still Too Costly for Americans
America’s approach to health care is an outlier among the world’s rich countries, and not in a good way. Extraordinarily complex and hideously expensive, it still manages to leave some 26 million people without coverage.
Exxon’s $60 Billion Fight With Chevron Will Reshape Big Oil
The prize is called Stabroek — a series of oil fields off the coast of Guyana, the Latin American nation bordering Venezuela and Brazil. The potential riches are incredible — about 11 billion barrels of oil, worth nearly $1 trillion at current prices.
Wall Street Seizes Bitcoin Volatility With Leveraged, Short ETFs
The frenzy surrounding the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds has yet to lose steam as Wall Street’s latest entrant offers supercharged versions of such products.
Bond Market Sees Fewer Rate Cuts Than Fed, Deepening Losses
For a brief moment last week, the market and the Federal Reserve were on the same page about the pace of monetary easing. It didn’t last long, and Treasuries investors are paying the price.
AI Boom Needs Vertiv Almost as Much as It Needs Nvidia
The artificial intelligence craze has driven Nvidia Corp. to a $2.3 trillion market value from about $360 billion at the beginning of last year, which means the chipmaker is trading at a price that’s 75 times higher than earnings. It is also taking some industrial companies along for the ride with a lot of room to run.
Billions Flood Active ETFs in Hunt for Cheap EM Stocks
As investors scour the globe for under-valued stocks, one increasingly popular destination is actively managed exchange-traded funds that focus on emerging markets.
Lithium Trading Hits Record on CME as Funds Seize Budding Market
Trading of CME Group Inc.’s nearly three-year-old lithium hydroxide futures contract is soaring, with more funds crowding into the budding market as prices of the battery metal falter.
Crash or Soar? Traders Are Preparing for Stock Market Extremes
Investors who just booked profits from one of the strongest first quarters for the S&P 500 Index in decades are preparing for what comes next — whether that’s stocks climbing higher or crashing back to earth.
June Fed Rate-Cut Odds Dip Below 50% After Strong ISM Data
Bond traders priced in less monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve this year — and briefly set the odds of a first move in June to less than 50% — after a gauge of US manufacturing activity showed expansion for the first time since 2022.
The US Economy’s Resilience Is Now Undeniable
Reasonable people can disagree about whether US disinflation is actually stalling and what it might mean for Federal Reserve monetary policy. But it’s getting much harder to deny the underlying strength of the economy, suggesting central bankers can afford to wait before reducing benchmark interest rates.
Financial Markets Just Delivered a Powerful Reminder
What an impressive start to the year for US stocks! Not only did the S&P 500 Index achieve its largest first-quarter gain since 2019, it did so amidst significant challenges.
The Dollar Is More Armored Division Than Currency
There’s just no getting past the supremacy of the dollar, much as skeptics of American influence wish for it or lonely yen bulls cry for relief. The greenback has been frequently tipped to retreat, only for it to blow away everything in front of it.
What Are the Odds of Enjoying March Madness Now?
Now that gambling has taken a dark turn. Since the Supreme Court’s 2018 decision ending the prohibition on sports gambling in most states, March Madness betting has become easier and more accessible. As a result, more people are betting not against their coworkers, but through online gambling sites.
Dalio Says China Must Fix Debt Problems or Face ‘Lost Decade’
Ray Dalio warned that China should cut its debt and ease monetary policy or face “a lost decade.”
Powell Juices Bond Market Bet on Inflation With Tilt to Jobs
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s increasing focus on protecting the job market is encouraging a swath of bond traders putting bets on inflation rates to remain elevated.
Fed Hawks Put the Dollar on Track for Best Quarter Since 2022
The dollar is poised for its best quarter since late 2022 as Federal Reserve officials push back against the latest bout of rate-cut wagers.
US Pending Home Sales Bounce Back After Slumping in January
Pending sales of previously-owned homes in the US recovered last month after declining at the start of the year, adding to evidence that the housing market is gradually improving.
Amazon Bets $150 Billion on Data Centers Required for AI Boom
Amazon.com Inc. plans to spend almost $150 billion in the coming 15 years on data centers, giving the cloud-computing giant the firepower to handle an expected explosion in demand for artificial intelligence applications and other digital services.
Tesla’s $25,000 Car Means Tossing Out the 100-Year-Old Assembly Line
Tesla Inc. has a plan to fend off cheaper competition from China with a $25,000 electric car. But first it has to overhaul a 100-year-old manufacturing process pioneered by Henry Ford.
Housing-Bond Sales Hit 10-Year High as Mortgage Rates Stay Lofty
State and local governments borrowed nearly $9 billion for affordable housing so far this year — the most for the period in at least a decade — as buying a home in the US remains expensive.
Generative AI Is Coming for Your Bank. Maybe.
Big banks are scrambling to work out what to do with generative artificial intelligence: how to use it to make some of their people smarter or free up others to do only higher-value tasks, and how to ingest and process data more rapidly, speed up decision making and cut costs. Every bank fears their competitors getting good at AI before they do.
Pension Funds to Buy More Infrastructure on Energy Transition
Pension funds around the world are significantly underinvested in infrastructure and will help drive growth as they tip more capital into assets that will be part of the global energy transition, according to a report by IFM Investors.
The Fight Over Bank Capital Keeps Missing the Point
US financial regulators have been working on what’s optimistically known as Basel III Endgame – the long, slow effort to reform global banking rules following the crash of 2008. They’re apparently getting cold feet.
A Dream Run for Homebuilders Is Ending
Homebuilders were one of the big surprise winners in the US economy last year as record-low inventory of existing houses for sale and gently rising prices allowed companies such as KB Home and Lennar Corp. to ramp up construction and maintain high profit margins. Both have said they expect more of the same in 2024 — they may be in for another surprise.
AI Could Have a Surprising Effect on Interest Rates
As improvements in artificial intelligence continue apace, so do questions about how AI will influence economies, asset prices and — the question of the moment — interest rates: Is AI more likely to make them go up or down?
Burned Before, Bond Markets Resume Rate-Cutting Trades Worldwide
Bond traders are cautiously reloading wagers that burned them just weeks ago as the Federal Reserve and key global peers finally appear set to begin reducing interest rates as soon as June.
Morgan Stanley’s ETFs Break $1 Billion With Mutual Fund Flips
Morgan Stanley’s exchange-traded lineup now holds more than $1 billion thanks to the firm’s first-ever mutual-fund conversions.
Banks’ New Trick Won’t Make Their Risks Disappear
One big reason the global financial system nearly collapsed in 2008 was that banks had shifted risks into the shadows, relying on insurance-like instruments that proved incapable of absorbing losses.
Trump’s Social Media Company Is Set to Trade Tuesday on Nasdaq
Former president Donald Trump’s social media startup is set to begin trading Tuesday after completing a blank-check deal that may bring him a financial windfall.
Junk Market Flashes Warning as Fed Eyes Higher Rates for Longer
Junk-rated US companies have seen their interest costs rise after the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike campaign, but profits haven’t kept up, putting a squeeze on finances and underscoring a key risk for investors in high-yield debt as the trend persists.
Investors Can’t Always Trust the Data, and That’s OK
I was attracted to finance because it promised some order amid chaos. Here was this market, with billions of transactions a day — and yet it managed to set a price for each asset, a price that put a literal number on the value of future risks, or more precisely how much people value those risks in the present day.
Resistance Is Futile, But Maybe Not With AI
There is an important warning here for everyone giddy with the recent advances of generative AI. Breathtaking developments in the realm of technology do not render history obsolete. It lives on alongside the latest gadgetry, because the present is not where history ends and the future begins; it is where the past and the future fuse.
AI Sparks Life Into Left-for-Dead Energy Sector
Artificial intelligence is shining its aura on one of the most benighted corners of the stock-market. While two AI hardware firms top the S&P 500 leaderboard so far this year — Super Micro Computer Inc. and Nvidia Corp. — a close third is Constellation Energy Corp...
Fed’s Barr Says Changes to Capital Rules Likely to Be Significant
The Federal Reserve’s top banking regulator said there will likely be significant changes to a controversial plan to force big lenders to hold more capital — another signal that Wall Street’s efforts to scuttle the initial proposal are succeeding.
Reddit Soars 48% in Debut as AI Pitch Gets Warm Reception
Reddit Inc. shares soared 48% above their initial public offering price, as investors embraced the social media company’s vision of profiting from the growth of artificial intelligence.
Microsoft Deal, Apple-Google Talks Show Tech Giants Need AI Help
Earlier this week, Microsoft Corp. named artificial intelligence pioneer Mustafa Suleyman chief of its consumer AI business and hired most of the staff from his Inflection AI startup. A day before, Bloomberg reported that Alphabet Inc.’s Google was in talks to license its Gemini AI engine to Apple Inc.
Giving Intel $20 Billion Exposes American Weakness
Intel Inc. is receiving $20 billion in grants and loans to help finance the expansion of its production capacity in the US, becoming the largest beneficiary by far of the 2022 Chips and Science Act, the cornerstone of President Joe Biden’s plan to reverse a decades-long decline in the US’s share of global semiconductor output.
Tesla Trims Car Output in China as EV Sales Growth Slows
Tesla Inc. has reduced production at its plant in China, according to people familiar with the matter, amid sluggish growth in electric-vehicle sales and intense competition in the world’s biggest auto market.
The AI Assembly Line Ends With Microsoft, Google and Meta
It’s almost impossible for an artificial-intelligence startup to build anything as good as ChatGPT, but Inflection was getting there.
Gold Jumps Above $2,200 an Ounce for First Time on Dovish Fed
Gold surged above $2,200 an ounce for the first time as investors grew more confident about the Federal Reserve’s path for rate cuts, boosting the appeal of non-interest bearing bullion.
US Spot-Bitcoin ETFs Post Largest Three-Day Outflow Since Launch
A group of 10 spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted its biggest three-day outflow since the products debuted in January, a turnaround from the clamor for exposure that earlier drove to the token to a record high.
Fed Stays on Track for Rate Cuts With One Eye on Bumpy Inflation
Federal Reserve policymakers are largely sticking to their path of interest-rate cuts — for now — after hitting a bump on the road to low and steady inflation.
Asian Stocks Surge to 2022 High on Fed’s Outlook, Tech Rally
A key measure of Asian stocks rose to its highest level since April 2022, powered by technology companies and the Federal Reserve’s supportive comments on the outlook for US interest-rate cuts.
Goldman Plots Course to Become a Top Five Model-Portfolio Player
Goldman Sachs Asset Management is charting a path to break into the top ranks of what’s projected to grow into a more than $10 trillion industry by the end of the decade.
Evaporating US Bitcoin ETF Demand Sends Token to a Two-Week Low
Bitcoin sank to a two-week low before paring losses as demand for dedicated US exchange-traded funds dries up and investors question the Federal Reserve’s scope to lower interest rates quickly.
Real Estate Pain Is Showing Up in an Obscure Investment Product
An obscure investment product used to finance risky real estate projects is facing unprecedented stress as borrowers struggle to repay loans tied to commercial property ventures.
Who’s Waiting on the Fed? Not the Credit Market
The timing and pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will consume economists and market commentators for months to come. But an emerging story in 2024 is that lenders and borrowers are jumping the gun well in advance of any policy easing.
Nvidia Unveils Successor to Its All-Conquering AI Processor
Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang showed off new chips aimed at extending his company’s dominance of artificial intelligence computing, a position that’s already made it the world’s third-most-valuable business.
BofA Strategists at Odds Over Presence of ‘Euphoria’ in Stocks
Wall Street is so divided on whether the US stock market’s meteoric rise has gone too far, too fast that even Bank of America Corp.’s own strategists disagree.
Wall Street Banks Tap Europe’s Buoyant Bond Market
Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are piling into Europe’s bond market to raise money, the first Wall Street banks to do so this year as they take advantage of strong funding conditions.
Biden’s Budget Arithmetic Doesn’t Add Up
President Joe Biden’s new budget isn’t going anywhere. Policy for the current fiscal year is in disarray, to say nothing of the one that starts next October — and things will probably get worse as elections approach.
Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodities This Week
Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway.
US Homebuilder Sentiment Increases to an Eight-Month High
Sentiment among US homebuilders climbed to an eight-month high in March as a limited number of existing homes for sale and mortgage rates that are down from their peak spurred demand.
BlackRock, Man Group Reveal Big Japan Bets Before BOJ Decision
Snap up more Japanese stocks, ratchet up shorts on government debt and keep buying the yen: these are some of the most popular calls from big-name money managers ahead of a central bank meeting that may end the world’s last experiment with negative interest rates.
Markets Showing Signs of Bubble on Big Tech, Crypto Surge, BofA’s Hartnett Says
Markets are showing characteristics of a bubble in the record-setting surge by tech’s so-called Magnificent Seven stocks and the all-time highs in cryptocurrencies, according to Bank of America Corp. Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett.
S&P Would Need to Rise 20% to Look Like 90s Bubble, SocGen Says
If a bubble is forming in US stocks, it has plenty of room to expand before it bursts, according to strategists at Societe Generale SA.
Blackstone Says Time to Buy Real Estate as Prices at Bottom
Real estate prices have bottomed and there’s a great opportunity to move fast and buy assets at beaten-down prices, according to Blackstone Inc. President Jon Gray.
Japan Is Back, China Is Over. The Trouble With Narratives
Japan is back, China is over. Only a few years ago, such an assertion would have been dismissed out of hand. The latter was on the road to economic dominance and the former languished, characterized by endless stimulus that produced little tangible benefit, and doomed by a shrinking population.
American Debt Stings Like Never Before in New Era for Households
After years of managing household budgets through the stress of the worst inflation in a generation, US families are increasingly pressured by a different kind of financial squeeze: The cost of carrying debt.
Bitcoin Extends Retreat From Record as ‘Bubble’ Talk Escalates
Bitcoin extended a retreat from its latest record high amid an intensifying debate about whether the bull run in cryptocurrencies is evidence of speculative froth in global markets.
Gold’s Record-Setting Pace Is Exuberantly Rational
Gold has definitively broken out of the range it's been stuck in since the start of this decade, reaching a record $2,195 per troy ounce this month.
Private Credit Has Had Its 15 Minutes of Fame
Just as private credit is becoming an asset class of its own and private equity houses are finding a new revenue stream away from their bread-and-butter buyout businesses, this burgeoning part of leveraged finance is losing steam.