U.S. stocks have handily outperformed their global peers over the past few decades, as well as in the post-World War II period. We document the scale of the outperformance and ask whether it can continue.
Nvidia Corp.’s shares are roaring back after the company successfully calmed investor concerns about product delays and its long-term growth prospects.
It’s almost always bad news when a statement from a prominent company hits late on Friday. For those who missed Boeing Co.’s release at 4:30 p.m. New York Time ahead of a three-day weekend for the bond market, Boeing laid out the ugly truth of blowout operating losses at its commercial aircraft and defense businesses during the third quarter, which combined for about $6.4 billion.
Chinese stocks overcame a bout of early volatility to post their biggest gain in a week on Monday, suggesting that investors are hopeful the government will deliver on its promise of more fiscal support.
Everything I’ve learned and experienced in 50+ years of watching the economy tells me not to expect a soft landing. But maybe that’s because I’ve never actually seen one.
With over 36,000 metric tons in reserves—about one-fifth of all the gold ever mined—central banks know something we should too: Gold is the ultimate safety net.
In the past few years it certainly has been. No wonder.
China’s leaders appear to be back on a pragmatic macro policy path, but more course corrections will be required to change the direction of the world’s second-largest economy. Beijing must continue to be less stubborn, and we will need to be patient.
The latest Employment Situation Report released on October 4, 2024, showed nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 in September, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.
Credit indices rallied during the third quarter, despite a variety of economic headwinds, and it appears FOMO (fear of missing out) is fueling the bullish sentiment more than fundamentals.
The latest S&P 500 rebalance introduced Dell and Palantir to the index, and Apple’s weight grew with annual float changes, signaling technology’s ongoing influence.
The US debt is near its highest level in history and on track to grow. Neither political party currently seems intent on making it more sustainable.
The bond market is growing less convinced by the day that the Federal Reserve will embark on two further interest-rate cuts this year.
The market continues to trend higher on Goldilocks pixie dust.
September was a solid month for investors, capping off a strong quarter for markets. Falling interest rates helped support stock returns, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average setting new record highs during the month. Even bonds were up, marking five straight months with positive fixed income performance.
Quarterly recap: Fed rate cut and Chinese stimulus take the spotlight.
Foreign investors have been buying more US corporate bonds, a trend that will likely continue as Federal Reserve monetary easing lowers the cost of hedging and investors hunt for yield.
Investors in Hong Kong have bet a record amount on exchange-traded funds that profit when stocks decline, showing how quickly sentiment is shifting following a breakneck rally.
Two senior Wall Street executives complained this week that over-regulation is discouraging initial public offerings. JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon partly blamed the zeal of securities regulators for the drop in IPOs that began in March 2022, a sentiment echoed by Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao.
Elon Musk unveiled Tesla Inc.’s highly anticipated self-driving taxi at a flashy event that was light on specifics, leaving investors questioning how the carmaker expects to achieve its ambitious goals.
In the wake of pandemic shocks, economies appear more “normal” than at any time since 2019. Yet policy rates remain elevated.
In the last year, we’ve written about the poor performance of clean energy, while highlighting the strong long-term outlook for the sector and the attractive valuations. These are typically the sorts of things we focus on…valuations and the long-term fundamental prospects for companies. We tend to shy away from overanalyzing short-term market dynamics.
Supply chain disruptions related to the port workers’ strike loom, the impacts of which we know can be incredibly destructive.
Should China deliver sufficient stimulus to break the cycle of tightening fiscal policy, we may find China, and emerging markets, investable again.
The puck has certainly moved since our last market commentary. This month, we argue that the needle on portfolio construction should move with it. Equities have been the driver of returns for much of the last few years.
With many having characterized China as “uninvestible” just a few months ago, investors’ enthusiastic response in recent weeks to a perceived shift in the authorities’ policy reaction function is also likely to be an overreaction. It grossly oversimplifies the competing priorities of a country with internal imbalances, inefficient resource allocation channels, and exposure to further geopolitical tensions.
Tougher stances on trade are a point of bipartisan agreement.
Market participation broadened beyond technology stocks during the third quarter.
The US Justice Department is considering asking a federal judge to force Google to sell off parts of its business in what would be a historic breakup of one of the world’s biggest tech companies.
Britain’s stock-investing culture has been withering for years, with the only real growth coming from consultants, policymakers and commentators generating ideas on how to revive it. So why is Robinhood Markets Inc. so keen to expand in the UK? The draw may be more the country’s enthusiasm for online betting than allocating savings to equities.
Many emerging markets have delivered a robust performance this quarter amid a number of headwinds and we expect key geographies to build on that in the coming months.
The jobs report closed last week with robust read outs of an official number that beat economist expectations. Below the surface, however, hours worked fell to levels often associated with recessions. This juxtaposition of more workers clocking fewer hours suggests that while employment figures are up, the quantity of work didn’t expand much.
A crystal ball enlightening a trader about the rate cut headlines would have been costly. However, a trader with the crystal ball and proper context may have been more successful.
Foreign Agents provides a powerful and depressing master class in the famous warning of Hamilton’s Federalist No. 21. To quote another founding father, Benjamin Franklin, “a republic, if you can keep it” indeed.
China’s recent stimulus announcements sparked a massive rally in its stocks, and a growing chorus of analysts see more gains ahead. Is this a reawakening of the country’s long slumbering stock market or just another false start? Bloomberg Opinion’s Nir Kaissar and Shuli Ren, based in the US and Hong Kong respectively, met online to discuss the risks and opportunities.
Judging from the public commentary, last Friday’s US jobs report confused economists in terms of their understanding of economic developments in the world’s largest economy and the policy approach of the Federal Reserve.
All of our eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through October 4th, 2024. The Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished in the top spot with a year-to-date gain of 35.43%. The U.S. S&P 500 finished in second with a year-to-date gain of 21.26% while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in third with a year-to-date gain of 15.45%.
Monetary policy began to transition from restrictive to neutral last quarter, and we’re optimistic that continued easing can prevent a hard landing.
We bring together historical and real-time analysis for insight into the economy, markets, and potential alpha opportunities and risks we’re watching.
Just like road trips can bring unexpected detours, the economy and financial markets are at their own crossroads: recession or soft landing?
Policymakers have recognized China's slower economy.
Global monetary easing and modest growth are creating a fairy tale story for investors. Their very high conviction in the outcome of that story, however, belies a number of serious risks.
The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates. Whether the economy falls into recession, hard or soft, is anyone’s guess.
Oil futures posted their largest gain in more than a year last week. And the frenzy was even bigger in the options market.
The outlook for corporate debt is improving now that the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.
The “no landing” scenario – a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates – had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months.
t.
How will the U.S. dollar respond to Federal Reserve rate cuts? The factors that have supported a strong dollar for years remain largely intact.
It’s my birthday week and I have guests and family gathering in the next room, so this will hopefully be a quick letter as well as ending with what will likely be controversial food for thought.
As we approach the final stretch of 2024, much of the nation’s focus is on the upcoming U.S. presidential election. But while the political landscape remains uncertain, the markets are painting a different picture. September, traditionally a sluggish month for global equities, delivered an unexpected surge.
Market conditions are shifting fast. But making impulsive changes to equity portfolios and allocations can be counterproductive.
Traders slashed their bets on the pace of future Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts after September US employment data blew past estimates and signaled a robust hiring trend.
Flashing green light – crowd will determine path forward.
If the risk of stepping too far out into the yield curve is too much to bear, consider using intermediate bond options.
As we look at today’s economy and financial markets, we are at a crossroads: Will it be a long straight highway to a soft landing, or will it be a bumpy road to recession?
The dollar is about to notch its best week in two years. Geopolitical unrest, the odds of lower borrowing costs overseas and a resilient US economy are all spurring the world’s reserve currency higher.
Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced his “Make in India” policies shortly after being elected prime minister in 2014, New Delhi has chased the dream of a prosperous manufacturing sector. There have been some successes — when it comes to making mobile phones, for example.
The various bestselling books on income inequality cite a variety of driving factors. Robert Kuttner blames global capitalism. Paul Krugman pins it on bad domestic economic policies. Thomas Piketty writes of capitalists as if they are rentiers, extracting royalties from the system.
September is typically the weakest month of the year for stocks, but thanks to the much-anticipated federal funds rate cut, the S&P 500 turned in its first positive performance in a September since 2019
We expect bond yields to trend gradually lower—but it may be a bumpy ride. These seven strategies may help investors take advantage.
The major market event in September was the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut following the September 18th Federal Open Market Committee meeting. There was broad consensus the Fed would cut rates, though the 50 basis points (as opposed to 25) and perhaps the tone of Jay Powell's press conference surprised to the upside...
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Head of AIS Portfolio & Business Consulting, Sophie Antal-Gilbert, discussed the rally in Chinese equities.
Direxion Funds has launched two exchange-traded products that focus on a single emerging-market stock — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. — allowing investors to make outsized bullish bets on it or take positions against the direction of the market.
Guys, you were so close. If it wasn’t for that last little bounce of Wall Street optimism on the last day of September, Tesla Inc.’s latest sales figure would have beaten estimates — just.
We think it would be a mistake for investors to let tighter spreads and upcoming maturities deter them from the euro high-yield market.
In the report, Head of Greater China & Portfolio Manager Victoria Mio, explains why China’s decisive pivot from debt control to growth support could be the catalyst needed to restore confidence and unlock value in China’s markets.
Ray Dalio’s family office and Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s artificial intelligence firm G42 have abandoned plans to set up an asset management venture together in Abu Dhabi, according to people familiar with the matter.
The M2 money supply growth rate in the U.S. accelerated, marking the first time the monthly change exceeded a 5% annualized rate after several months of more moderate increases. A 5% money supply growth is a desirable target, as it reflects 2-3% growth in the economy with 2% inflation. Thus, the uptick in money growth is reassuring and supports the possibility that we will avert a hard landing for the economy.
Emerging-market stocks are showing signs of life amid hints of earnings improvements. Where should investors look?
Our experts explore the implications of wider S&P 500 earnings growth, potential Fed rate cuts, and the outlook for global equities and bonds amidst ongoing economic shifts.
The economy reached an inflection point, with labor market conditions squarely in focus.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
Companies and governments around the globe spent the past month streaming into debt markets, seizing on declining interest rates ahead of an uncertain US presidential election that many fear will spur volatility in markets.
Asian assets swung violently over the past three months, rocked by a succession of epochal events that culminated in a giant stimulus boost for China and propelled the region’s equities to world beaters.
The current approach to investment management has no sound basis and doesn’t work. There is a better way.
Sand. Salt. Iron. Copper. Oil. Lithium. These, not petabytes or algorithms or innovative ideas, are the building blocks of human life as we know it. At least that’s what Ed Conway, author of Material World, tells us.
A stronger-than-expected pivot to stimulus in the world’s two biggest economies has brightened the market outlook. For economists, the jury is still out.
US stocks will outperform the nation’s government and corporate bonds for the rest of this year as the Federal Reserve keeps cutting interest rates, the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey shows.
Gold is what you buy when everything isn’t goldilocks. Inflation, deflation, war, pestilence — gold is a certain anxious state of mind made tangible in a seductive but mostly useless metal. In a weird spin, gold has been enjoying a goldilocks period itself, hitting a new record last week. More that that, it seems almost immune to things that would usually drag it down.
Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points. This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting the economy amid a backdrop of softening economic data. For investors, understanding how similar rate cuts have historically impacted markets and which sectors tend to benefit is key to navigating the months ahead.
I attended and spoke at the European Blockchain Convention this week in Barcelona, where the energy around digital assets, Bitcoin and Web3 was palpable. Among the 6,000 attendees, there was a sense that we’re on the brink of a new era in finance and digital infrastructure.
Portfolio Manager Andrew Mattock, CFA, assesses the key components of the growth measures announced by the central bank and financial regulators in terms of their potential impact on the economy and the Chinese equity market.
The latest data suggests the U.S. economy is headed toward a soft landing rather than a recession. With Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts underway, markets are backing this view.
Gold has forged multiple new record highs so far this year, and is now up some 30% year to date, 3.5% in the past week alone.
Chief executive officers are no longer trying to be all things to all people.
Rupert Murdoch has so far made it easy for Rightmove Plc to resist his takeover bid.
On Tuesday, congressional leaders spent two hours taking to task Novo Nordisk Chief Executive Officer Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen over the high price of the company’s diabetes and obesity drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy. Now the question is whether those prices will change.
Since the beginning of the year, the OPEC+ countries that are subject to output caps have pumped together more than 600,000 barrels a day above their self-imposed limits.
At a finance conference in London this summer, four senior investment bankers set about persuading the room that the $1.7-trillion private credit market isn’t a threat to Wall Street. Barely three months later, two of them have jumped ship to seek their fortunes in the upstart asset class.
A new wave of opportunity seems set to flow into private credit markets, which could enhance risk-adjusted returns and diversify portfolios. What's driving this potential?
Tax cuts are popular but not affordable for most nations.
Asian/European Markets
U.S. Versus International Stock Performance
U.S. stocks have handily outperformed their global peers over the past few decades, as well as in the post-World War II period. We document the scale of the outperformance and ask whether it can continue.
Nvidia Rides Fierce Blackwell Demand Toward Stock Record Again
Nvidia Corp.’s shares are roaring back after the company successfully calmed investor concerns about product delays and its long-term growth prospects.
Boeing Needs Some Help to Stem Its Cash Burn and Losses
It’s almost always bad news when a statement from a prominent company hits late on Friday. For those who missed Boeing Co.’s release at 4:30 p.m. New York Time ahead of a three-day weekend for the bond market, Boeing laid out the ugly truth of blowout operating losses at its commercial aircraft and defense businesses during the third quarter, which combined for about $6.4 billion.
Chinese Stocks Climb as Traders See Hope in Beijing’s Promises
Chinese stocks overcame a bout of early volatility to post their biggest gain in a week on Monday, suggesting that investors are hopeful the government will deliver on its promise of more fiscal support.
Hard or Soft?
Everything I’ve learned and experienced in 50+ years of watching the economy tells me not to expect a soft landing. But maybe that’s because I’ve never actually seen one.
Top 10 Countries That Have Bought the Most Gold Over the Past Decade
With over 36,000 metric tons in reserves—about one-fifth of all the gold ever mined—central banks know something we should too: Gold is the ultimate safety net.
It’s a Bull Market You Know?
In the past few years it certainly has been. No wonder.
Less Stubborn
China’s leaders appear to be back on a pragmatic macro policy path, but more course corrections will be required to change the direction of the world’s second-largest economy. Beijing must continue to be less stubborn, and we will need to be patient.
Jobs Report Supports Inflationary Pressures Despite Fed’s Dovish Moves
The latest Employment Situation Report released on October 4, 2024, showed nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 in September, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.
Fourth Quarter Strategic Income Outlook
Credit indices rallied during the third quarter, despite a variety of economic headwinds, and it appears FOMO (fear of missing out) is fueling the bullish sentiment more than fundamentals.
S&P 500 Index Rebalance: Steady Preference for Technology
The latest S&P 500 rebalance introduced Dell and Palantir to the index, and Apple’s weight grew with annual float changes, signaling technology’s ongoing influence.
The US National Debt: Debt or Alive?
The US debt is near its highest level in history and on track to grow. Neither political party currently seems intent on making it more sustainable.
Bond Traders’ Big Week Ends With Fed Rate Cuts Even Less Certain
The bond market is growing less convinced by the day that the Federal Reserve will embark on two further interest-rate cuts this year.
Macro Thoughts: Goldilocks Pixie Dust
The market continues to trend higher on Goldilocks pixie dust.
Looking Back at the Markets in September and Ahead to October 2024
September was a solid month for investors, capping off a strong quarter for markets. Falling interest rates helped support stock returns, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average setting new record highs during the month. Even bonds were up, marking five straight months with positive fixed income performance.
Q3 Recap: Value Begins to Take Leadership
Quarterly recap: Fed rate cut and Chinese stimulus take the spotlight.
US Credit Draws In Foreign Investors Eying Lower Costs to Hedge
Foreign investors have been buying more US corporate bonds, a trend that will likely continue as Federal Reserve monetary easing lowers the cost of hedging and investors hunt for yield.
Hong Kong ETF Investors Make Record Bet on Stock Market Decline
Investors in Hong Kong have bet a record amount on exchange-traded funds that profit when stocks decline, showing how quickly sentiment is shifting following a breakneck rally.
The IPO Slump Is Fine Unless You’re Jamie Dimon
Two senior Wall Street executives complained this week that over-regulation is discouraging initial public offerings. JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon partly blamed the zeal of securities regulators for the drop in IPOs that began in March 2022, a sentiment echoed by Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao.
Musk Shows Tesla Cybercab, Sees Sub-$30,000 Cost and 2026 Production
Elon Musk unveiled Tesla Inc.’s highly anticipated self-driving taxi at a flashy event that was light on specifics, leaving investors questioning how the carmaker expects to achieve its ambitious goals.
Securing the Soft Landing
In the wake of pandemic shocks, economies appear more “normal” than at any time since 2019. Yet policy rates remain elevated.
Misguided Mayhem
In the last year, we’ve written about the poor performance of clean energy, while highlighting the strong long-term outlook for the sector and the attractive valuations. These are typically the sorts of things we focus on…valuations and the long-term fundamental prospects for companies. We tend to shy away from overanalyzing short-term market dynamics.
It's a Volatile World
Supply chain disruptions related to the port workers’ strike loom, the impacts of which we know can be incredibly destructive.
Is China Investable Again?
Should China deliver sufficient stimulus to break the cycle of tightening fiscal policy, we may find China, and emerging markets, investable again.
Moving the Needle
The puck has certainly moved since our last market commentary. This month, we argue that the needle on portfolio construction should move with it. Equities have been the driver of returns for much of the last few years.
China Has Taken Out an Insurance Policy, Not a Bazooka
With many having characterized China as “uninvestible” just a few months ago, investors’ enthusiastic response in recent weeks to a perceived shift in the authorities’ policy reaction function is also likely to be an overreaction. It grossly oversimplifies the competing priorities of a country with internal imbalances, inefficient resource allocation channels, and exposure to further geopolitical tensions.
Trade Policy: More Sticks Than Carrots
Tougher stances on trade are a point of bipartisan agreement.
Market Broadens Amid China & Fed Policy Actions. Play the Rotation While Barbelling Your Portfolio
Market participation broadened beyond technology stocks during the third quarter.
US Weighs Google Breakup in Historic Big Tech Antitrust Case
The US Justice Department is considering asking a federal judge to force Google to sell off parts of its business in what would be a historic breakup of one of the world’s biggest tech companies.
Why Robinhood Is Seeking Merry Traders Overseas
Britain’s stock-investing culture has been withering for years, with the only real growth coming from consultants, policymakers and commentators generating ideas on how to revive it. So why is Robinhood Markets Inc. so keen to expand in the UK? The draw may be more the country’s enthusiasm for online betting than allocating savings to equities.
Q3 2024 CIO Review and Outlook
Many emerging markets have delivered a robust performance this quarter amid a number of headwinds and we expect key geographies to build on that in the coming months.
Rising Productivity Shows Economy Remains Resilient
The jobs report closed last week with robust read outs of an official number that beat economist expectations. Below the surface, however, hours worked fell to levels often associated with recessions. This juxtaposition of more workers clocking fewer hours suggests that while employment figures are up, the quantity of work didn’t expand much.
Even Crystal Balls Need Some Context
A crystal ball enlightening a trader about the rate cut headlines would have been costly. However, a trader with the crystal ball and proper context may have been more successful.
The Birth of the Swamp
Foreign Agents provides a powerful and depressing master class in the famous warning of Hamilton’s Federalist No. 21. To quote another founding father, Benjamin Franklin, “a republic, if you can keep it” indeed.
Is China Breaking Out or Breaking Bad?
China’s recent stimulus announcements sparked a massive rally in its stocks, and a growing chorus of analysts see more gains ahead. Is this a reawakening of the country’s long slumbering stock market or just another false start? Bloomberg Opinion’s Nir Kaissar and Shuli Ren, based in the US and Hong Kong respectively, met online to discuss the risks and opportunities.
How to Think About the Surprising US Jobs Data
Judging from the public commentary, last Friday’s US jobs report confused economists in terms of their understanding of economic developments in the world’s largest economy and the policy approach of the Federal Reserve.
World Markets Watchlist: October 4, 2024
All of our eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through October 4th, 2024. The Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished in the top spot with a year-to-date gain of 35.43%. The U.S. S&P 500 finished in second with a year-to-date gain of 21.26% while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in third with a year-to-date gain of 15.45%.
Global Macro Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2024
Monetary policy began to transition from restrictive to neutral last quarter, and we’re optimistic that continued easing can prevent a hard landing.
Systematic Equity Outlook: Cutting Through Market Uncertainty
We bring together historical and real-time analysis for insight into the economy, markets, and potential alpha opportunities and risks we’re watching.
The U.S. Economy Is on Track for a Soft Landing
Just like road trips can bring unexpected detours, the economy and financial markets are at their own crossroads: recession or soft landing?
China Tries More Stimulus
Policymakers have recognized China's slower economy.
Arete Market Review Q3 24
Global monetary easing and modest growth are creating a fairy tale story for investors. Their very high conviction in the outcome of that story, however, belies a number of serious risks.
Is It Possible to See a Recession and a Great Bull Market?
The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates. Whether the economy falls into recession, hard or soft, is anyone’s guess.
Oil Bets Most Bullish in Two Years as Mideast Tension Flares
Oil futures posted their largest gain in more than a year last week. And the frenzy was even bigger in the options market.
Corporate Bonds Gain an Edge Over Stocks as Fed Cuts
The outlook for corporate debt is improving now that the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.
Bond Traders Buckle Up for ‘No Landing’ After Jobs Surprise
The “no landing” scenario – a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates – had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months.
t.
What Will Fed Rate Cuts Mean for the U.S. Dollar?
How will the U.S. dollar respond to Federal Reserve rate cuts? The factors that have supported a strong dollar for years remain largely intact.
The Crisis of Free Speech
It’s my birthday week and I have guests and family gathering in the next room, so this will hopefully be a quick letter as well as ending with what will likely be controversial food for thought.
Markets in 2024 Surge Despite Election Uncertainty and Global Risks
As we approach the final stretch of 2024, much of the nation’s focus is on the upcoming U.S. presidential election. But while the political landscape remains uncertain, the markets are painting a different picture. September, traditionally a sluggish month for global equities, delivered an unexpected surge.
Equity Outlook: As Volatility Rises, Resist the Tactical Temptation
Market conditions are shifting fast. But making impulsive changes to equity portfolios and allocations can be counterproductive.
Traders Rip Up Bets on Big Fed Cuts as Jobs Data Hits Bonds
Traders slashed their bets on the pace of future Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts after September US employment data blew past estimates and signaled a robust hiring trend.
Tactical Rules Remain Bullish
Flashing green light – crowd will determine path forward.
2 Intermediate Bond Options for Immediate Consideration
If the risk of stepping too far out into the yield curve is too much to bear, consider using intermediate bond options.
The Great American Road Trip
As we look at today’s economy and financial markets, we are at a crossroads: Will it be a long straight highway to a soft landing, or will it be a bumpy road to recession?
Dollar Set for Best Week in Two Years as Big Fed Cut Bets Erased
The dollar is about to notch its best week in two years. Geopolitical unrest, the odds of lower borrowing costs overseas and a resilient US economy are all spurring the world’s reserve currency higher.
India Won’t Grow Without Taking on the World
Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced his “Make in India” policies shortly after being elected prime minister in 2014, New Delhi has chased the dream of a prosperous manufacturing sector. There have been some successes — when it comes to making mobile phones, for example.
One Underappreciated Way to Reduce Inequality: Work More
The various bestselling books on income inequality cite a variety of driving factors. Robert Kuttner blames global capitalism. Paul Krugman pins it on bad domestic economic policies. Thomas Piketty writes of capitalists as if they are rentiers, extracting royalties from the system.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Helped Propel Markets Forward
September is typically the weakest month of the year for stocks, but thanks to the much-anticipated federal funds rate cut, the S&P 500 turned in its first positive performance in a September since 2019
Fixed-Income Outlook: Strategies for a Controlled Descent
We expect bond yields to trend gradually lower—but it may be a bumpy ride. These seven strategies may help investors take advantage.
QuantStreet October 2024 Investor Letter: The Fed Finally Starts Easing
The major market event in September was the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut following the September 18th Federal Open Market Committee meeting. There was broad consensus the Fed would cut rates, though the 50 basis points (as opposed to 25) and perhaps the tone of Jay Powell's press conference surprised to the upside...
What’s Fueling the Rally in Chinese Equities?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Head of AIS Portfolio & Business Consulting, Sophie Antal-Gilbert, discussed the rally in Chinese equities.
TSMC Gets Single-Stock ETF as Direxion Funds Allow Leverage Bets
Direxion Funds has launched two exchange-traded products that focus on a single emerging-market stock — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. — allowing investors to make outsized bullish bets on it or take positions against the direction of the market.
Tesla Really Needs Musk’s Robotaxis to Live Up to the Hype
Guys, you were so close. If it wasn’t for that last little bounce of Wall Street optimism on the last day of September, Tesla Inc.’s latest sales figure would have beaten estimates — just.
Why the Euro High-Yield Market May Be Worth the Risk
We think it would be a mistake for investors to let tighter spreads and upcoming maturities deter them from the euro high-yield market.
China’s Bazooka Stimulus: A Turning Point for Economic Growth and Investor Confidence?
In the report, Head of Greater China & Portfolio Manager Victoria Mio, explains why China’s decisive pivot from debt control to growth support could be the catalyst needed to restore confidence and unlock value in China’s markets.
Dalio, Abu Dhabi Royal’s G42 Said to Shelve Investment Venture
Ray Dalio’s family office and Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s artificial intelligence firm G42 have abandoned plans to set up an asset management venture together in Abu Dhabi, according to people familiar with the matter.
Money Supply Growth Eases Hard Landing Fears
The M2 money supply growth rate in the U.S. accelerated, marking the first time the monthly change exceeded a 5% annualized rate after several months of more moderate increases. A 5% money supply growth is a desirable target, as it reflects 2-3% growth in the economy with 2% inflation. Thus, the uptick in money growth is reassuring and supports the possibility that we will avert a hard landing for the economy.
Emerging Markets: Five Opportunities for Equity Investors
Emerging-market stocks are showing signs of life amid hints of earnings improvements. Where should investors look?
S&P 500 Earnings Breadth Broadens
Our experts explore the implications of wider S&P 500 earnings growth, potential Fed rate cuts, and the outlook for global equities and bonds amidst ongoing economic shifts.
Another Solid Quarter for the Equity Market
The economy reached an inflection point, with labor market conditions squarely in focus.
Global Economic Outlook: Fall Has Arrived
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
Global Debt Binge Brings Record $600 Billion of Bond Sales
Companies and governments around the globe spent the past month streaming into debt markets, seizing on declining interest rates ahead of an uncertain US presidential election that many fear will spur volatility in markets.
Suddenly Asia Is Place to Be as Stocks, Currencies Outperform
Asian assets swung violently over the past three months, rocked by a succession of epochal events that culminated in a giant stimulus boost for China and propelled the region’s equities to world beaters.
The Right Way to Solve Asset Management
The current approach to investment management has no sound basis and doesn’t work. There is a better way.
Living in a Material World: The Surprisingly Gripping Tale of Six Natural Resources
Sand. Salt. Iron. Copper. Oil. Lithium. These, not petabytes or algorithms or innovative ideas, are the building blocks of human life as we know it. At least that’s what Ed Conway, author of Material World, tells us.
Market-Boosting Moves in US, China Yet to Convince Economists
A stronger-than-expected pivot to stimulus in the world’s two biggest economies has brightened the market outlook. For economists, the jury is still out.
Stocks Are In and Bonds Are Out: Top Trades for the Rest of the Year
US stocks will outperform the nation’s government and corporate bonds for the rest of this year as the Federal Reserve keeps cutting interest rates, the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey shows.
Gold’s Record Run Can’t Continue Forever, Right?
Gold is what you buy when everything isn’t goldilocks. Inflation, deflation, war, pestilence — gold is a certain anxious state of mind made tangible in a seductive but mostly useless metal. In a weird spin, gold has been enjoying a goldilocks period itself, hitting a new record last week. More that that, it seems almost immune to things that would usually drag it down.
50 Basis Point Rate Cut – A Review And Outlook
Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points. This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting the economy amid a backdrop of softening economic data. For investors, understanding how similar rate cuts have historically impacted markets and which sectors tend to benefit is key to navigating the months ahead.
How M-PESA Is Leading a Financial Revolution Across Africa
I attended and spoke at the European Blockchain Convention this week in Barcelona, where the energy around digital assets, Bitcoin and Web3 was palpable. Among the 6,000 attendees, there was a sense that we’re on the brink of a new era in finance and digital infrastructure.
The Stimulus Package
Portfolio Manager Andrew Mattock, CFA, assesses the key components of the growth measures announced by the central bank and financial regulators in terms of their potential impact on the economy and the Chinese equity market.
2024 Global Market Outlook – Q4 update: Definitely Maybe
The latest data suggests the U.S. economy is headed toward a soft landing rather than a recession. With Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts underway, markets are backing this view.
Capturing More Than Price Gains With Unique Gold ETFs
Gold has forged multiple new record highs so far this year, and is now up some 30% year to date, 3.5% in the past week alone.
Quarter-Trillion Dollars of Breakups Drive Dealmaking Recovery
Chief executive officers are no longer trying to be all things to all people.
Murdoch’s Bid Still on the Wrong Side of Rightmove
Rupert Murdoch has so far made it easy for Rightmove Plc to resist his takeover bid.
Who’s Really Keeping Ozempic and Wegovy Prices So High?
On Tuesday, congressional leaders spent two hours taking to task Novo Nordisk Chief Executive Officer Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen over the high price of the company’s diabetes and obesity drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy. Now the question is whether those prices will change.
The Cheating Game Inside the OPEC+ Oil Cartel
Since the beginning of the year, the OPEC+ countries that are subject to output caps have pumped together more than 600,000 barrels a day above their self-imposed limits.
Bonus-Starved Bankers Are Jumping Ship for Private Credit Riches
At a finance conference in London this summer, four senior investment bankers set about persuading the room that the $1.7-trillion private credit market isn’t a threat to Wall Street. Barely three months later, two of them have jumped ship to seek their fortunes in the upstart asset class.
Demystifying Private Credit
A new wave of opportunity seems set to flow into private credit markets, which could enhance risk-adjusted returns and diversify portfolios. What's driving this potential?
Tax Policy: A New Course Is Required
Tax cuts are popular but not affordable for most nations.