Vietnam is a frontier market star.
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
Accelerated interest rate expectations, hotter than expected inflation, a protracted war in Ukraine and continued Chinese COVID uncertainty form a challenging backdrop for markets. As the earnings outlook deteriorates and global economic growth slows, the big R word is on everyone’s mind. Can the U.S. escape a recession should Europe and other key countries experience deteriorating real growth? Jon and Michelle will discuss the macroeconomic landscape and positioning portfolios for the current environment.
If hydrogen is to become a clean fuel of the future, urgent technological solutions are needed to keep it in place and move it at will.
Some Uber and Lyft drivers are finding that renting or buying a Tesla, the luxury electric car, is a more profitable option now amid soaring gas prices that have upended the economics of gig work.
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through June 27, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD loss of 1.71%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a loss of 4.99% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a loss of 6.67%. Coming in last is Germany's DAXK with a loss of 19.6% YTD.
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy answers some key questions about the European Central Bank's latest moves.
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
Sustainable investing needs to adapt to new realities without compromising its core principles.
It’s easy to be carried away: Top banking regulators are hungry for the efficiency, profitability and better service that pan-European banks could deliver.
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
A major “capitulation event” in which Bitcoin miners funnel thousands of tokens to exchanges could signal an approaching bottom for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, if history is any guide.
Pipe down for a second Elon, the hottest things in the auto industry — the most electric electrics — now come from Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp.
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
When Putin started the war, he tried to shift the blame to NATO, calling it the instigator. He argued that Russia had no choice but to defensively launch the war to prevent NATO from surrounding Russia from all sides. A few days ago, Putin finally lifted his veil of pretense: this is a war of conquest.
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
In a new piece, GMO’s Asset Allocation Team notes that even with the battering of growth stocks in 2022 there is still ample opportunity to benefit from betting on cheap value stocks versus expensive growth names.
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
President Joe Biden and his allies in Congress are rightly concerned about surging prices.
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
Tesla Inc. is taking steps to ramp up output at its factory in Shanghai, partly suspending manufacturing capabilities at various points through early August to upgrade production lines, according to people familiar with the matter.
While much of the rest of the world is increasingly entrenched into bear market mode, Chinese equities are looking more and more interesting as China continues zigging while the rest of the world is zagging.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, Incitec Pivot is a global leader in the materials sector with an unrelenting focus on Zero Harm, the expectation that its operations should never expose staff to harm or cause environmental incidents.
The terminology ‘Frontier Markets’ inspires images of exotic geographies, colourful politics and investor adventurism.
Agricultural commodities fell, offering some reprieve to rampant food inflation, as traders weigh incoming data on harvests and looming recessions in some major economies.
China’s chip industry is growing faster than anywhere else in the world, after US sanctions on local champions from Huawei Technologies Co. to Hikvision spurred appetite for home-grown components.
Elon Musk confirmed the salaried workforce at Tesla Inc. would be cut by about 10% over the next three months.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
The world needs a stronger World Trade Organization.
Private equity bosses are finding history to be a lousy guide as they hunt for clues on how to work through the turmoil in global markets.
Oil is heading for the first weekly decline since April after a period of choppy trading as investors weigh the prospect of further monetary tightening from central banks to curb rampant inflation.
How high do interest rates have to go to control inflation?
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Japan has been stuck in a low growth, low inflation (and at times, deflationary) environment.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
US dollar cycles last an average of six to nine years, and we are approaching the tenth year of this dollar bull market.
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.
It’s too soon to call an end to America’s worst bond-market collapse in at least half a century.
Mexico was the best-performing Latin American market in 2021 and our recent trip reinforced the reasons to remain bullish.
A historic shift in central bank policy is currently underway. The implications of this change are likely to be varied and in some instances substantial.
While the market chatter in the run-up to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision has understandably focused on whether the increase will be 50 or 75 basis points, the critical issue in play is a broader one.
Here are the major takeaways from my two decades research into how advisors can more effectively work with prospects and clients.
In our new piece from the Franklin Templeton Institute, we examine the challenge of feeding a growing global population in the midst of climate change, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty.
MicroStrategy Inc., ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund, Tesla Inc. and Twitter Inc. are what I’m watching to identify the ultimate capitulation point of this cycle.
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
There’s a fight brewing in the lithium market, after a controversial forecast from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts set off a backlash among some of the industry’s most prominent experts.
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
The proliferation of semiconductors throughout our economy may drive more durable, less cyclical demand and earnings.
New research shows that positive returns to ESG portfolios from 2018-2020 were attributed to increased demand for “green“ stocks, raising the question of whether that outperformance will be sustained.
Oil extended losses for a third session as the prospect of further monetary tightening to combat surging US inflation sent global markets spiraling lower.
Bitcoin plunged to the lowest in about 18 months after the freezing of withdrawals by the Celsius lending platform added to concern that systemic risk in the crypto ecosystem will accelerate the digital-asset market meltdown.
Hedge funds eager to prove that short-selling is a legitimate ESG strategy just got some fresh material to back their case.
Madonna was right. That iPhone on which you may be reading this article is far less important to society than the materials – like steel and plastic – that were used to build it.
The global trade in the cheapest foods is grinding to a halt.
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
I have been doing this long enough to know that the economy is a complex, self-adjusting mechanism, and thus the grim picture I have painted in this and previous articles may not play out.
US inflation accelerated to a fresh 40-year high in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy.
Sedans are a rarity and electrics even more so. That’s even as pump prices are surging.
It started with bonds. Now even collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) come in green.
Stocks modestly lower ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report.
Shanghai, the Chinese commercial hub with 26 million residents, ended its two-month citywide pandemic lockdown last week, a sign that the world’s second largest economy may be ready to return to business-as-usual.
Even as the US real estate market shows signs of cooling, inflation and higher interest rates are making it difficult for young house hunters to buy properties — at least on their own.
As corporate leaders increase their grim pronouncements about the future, there are still market economists who see stocks heading higher in the second half of this year and who say the US could sidestep a recession.
Consumer confidence has tanked, with the University of Michigan’s widely followed sentiment index at its lowest since 2011. This is incongruous with the fact that the labor market is very hot.
A wild year on Wall Street has traders fretting one of two extreme scenarios will engulf the $23 trillion Treasury market ahead: Either a fresh bond selloff thanks to red-hot inflation -- or a sustained rally on mounting recession risk that sends yields back toward historic lows.
Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
The ECB and the Fed both need to quickly normalize policy from the emergency settings adopted when the pandemic first hit.
Japan zero-inflation mindset is no match for today's price pressures.
The most recent change on the supply side of the global oil market has involved Saudi Arabia suddenly and dramatically regaining its swing-producer role.
Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.
If you’re itching for a dream vacation this summer after two years of travel restrictions, then you might end up paying more to rent a car than you spend on a plane ticket.
Gold may be heading for another rally, with warnings over a global economic slowdown paving the way for a fresh push toward $2,000 an ounce.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies, Shailesh Kshatriya, and Director of Institutional Investment Solutions, Greg Coffey, discussed the recent PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings from China and the U.S.
U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.
Asian/European Markets
Good Morning, Vietnam
Vietnam is a frontier market star.
More “Stagflation-Lite”, Moderately Positive On Equities Ex Europe, Still Negative On Global Bonds
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
3 Charts Showing Optimism For The Global Shipping Industry
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
Time to Jump Aboard the Value Train
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
Portfolio Perspectives – Recession or Not, That’s the Question
Accelerated interest rate expectations, hotter than expected inflation, a protracted war in Ukraine and continued Chinese COVID uncertainty form a challenging backdrop for markets. As the earnings outlook deteriorates and global economic growth slows, the big R word is on everyone’s mind. Can the U.S. escape a recession should Europe and other key countries experience deteriorating real growth? Jon and Michelle will discuss the macroeconomic landscape and positioning portfolios for the current environment.
Bill Gates-Led Fund Backs Startup With Cheaper Way to Move Hydrogen
If hydrogen is to become a clean fuel of the future, urgent technological solutions are needed to keep it in place and move it at will.
Uber, Lyft Drivers Switch to Teslas as High Gas Prices Squeeze Profit
Some Uber and Lyft drivers are finding that renting or buying a Tesla, the luxury electric car, is a more profitable option now amid soaring gas prices that have upended the economics of gig work.
A $2 Trillion Free-Fall Rattles Crypto to the Core
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
World Markets Update: June 27, 2022
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through June 27, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD loss of 1.71%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a loss of 4.99% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a loss of 6.67%. Coming in last is Germany's DAXK with a loss of 19.6% YTD.
Oil Price Reversions – The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
ECB in the News
Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy answers some key questions about the European Central Bank's latest moves.
Russia Slips Into Historic Default as Sanctions Muddy Next Steps
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
Of War And ESG
Sustainable investing needs to adapt to new realities without compromising its core principles.
Should European Banking Really Be More Like US Banking?
It’s easy to be carried away: Top banking regulators are hungry for the efficiency, profitability and better service that pan-European banks could deliver.
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Miner Capitulation Means Bitcoin Bottom Is Near
A major “capitulation event” in which Bitcoin miners funnel thousands of tokens to exchanges could signal an approaching bottom for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, if history is any guide.
Sorry Elon Musk. Hyundai Is Quietly Dominating the EV Race
Pipe down for a second Elon, the hottest things in the auto industry — the most electric electrics — now come from Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp.
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 16: Fed Watch: A Deep Dive into 75
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
Bond Traders Are Reading the Federal Reserve Wrong Again
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil Rallies After a Reading on Inflation Expectations Eased
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
Global Commodity Shock Enters Next Phase With Recession Test
Commodities will get intense scrutiny for the rest of 2022 after a first-half dominated by the supply turmoil and inflationary shocks unleashed by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Here, we look at what the rest of the year holds for raw materials from crude oil and natural gas to grains, gold, and iron ore.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies?
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
Putin’s Mask is Off. Europe is Next
When Putin started the war, he tried to shift the blame to NATO, calling it the instigator. He argued that Russia had no choice but to defensively launch the war to prevent NATO from surrounding Russia from all sides. A few days ago, Putin finally lifted his veil of pretense: this is a war of conquest.
A Realistic Framing of the Progress in Artificial Intelligence
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
Time To Jump Aboard The Value Train
In a new piece, GMO’s Asset Allocation Team notes that even with the battering of growth stocks in 2022 there is still ample opportunity to benefit from betting on cheap value stocks versus expensive growth names.
Stocks Adding to Weekly Gains
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
What Biden Should (and Shouldn’t) Do About Inflation
President Joe Biden and his allies in Congress are rightly concerned about surging prices.
Wall Street Faces Billion-Dollar Losses on Sinking Buyout Debt
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
Tesla Said Readying Its China Factory for Even Greater Volumes
Tesla Inc. is taking steps to ramp up output at its factory in Shanghai, partly suspending manufacturing capabilities at various points through early August to upgrade production lines, according to people familiar with the matter.
China Cheap Again
While much of the rest of the world is increasingly entrenched into bear market mode, Chinese equities are looking more and more interesting as China continues zigging while the rest of the world is zagging.
Recession Calls Grow; Mnuchin on Inflation Threat: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
Crude Oil Buckles as Recession Angst Rattles Commodity Investors
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
Zero Harm Farming and Mining
Headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, Incitec Pivot is a global leader in the materials sector with an unrelenting focus on Zero Harm, the expectation that its operations should never expose staff to harm or cause environmental incidents.
An Established Case and Emerging Trends for Frontier Markets Equity Investing
The terminology ‘Frontier Markets’ inspires images of exotic geographies, colourful politics and investor adventurism.
Global Food Inflation Gets Reprieve as Wheat and Oilseeds Tumble
Agricultural commodities fell, offering some reprieve to rampant food inflation, as traders weigh incoming data on harvests and looming recessions in some major economies.
US Sanctions Help China Supercharge Its Chipmaking Industry
China’s chip industry is growing faster than anywhere else in the world, after US sanctions on local champions from Huawei Technologies Co. to Hikvision spurred appetite for home-grown components.
Elon Musk Says Tesla Job Cuts Will Reduce Workforce by 3.5%
Elon Musk confirmed the salaried workforce at Tesla Inc. would be cut by about 10% over the next three months.
Recession Warnings Multiply; Exxon Signs Gas Deal: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
Governance For Global Trade
The world needs a stronger World Trade Organization.
Private Equity’s Crisis First-Timers See Their Playbook Shredded
Private equity bosses are finding history to be a lousy guide as they hunt for clues on how to work through the turmoil in global markets.
Oil Set for Weekly Loss as Traders Weigh Monetary Tightening
Oil is heading for the first weekly decline since April after a period of choppy trading as investors weigh the prospect of further monetary tightening from central banks to curb rampant inflation.
An Active Week For Central Banks
How high do interest rates have to go to control inflation?
Gold Has Been One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022 (So Far)
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Inflation in Japan Should Be Cheered, Not Feared
Japan has been stuck in a low growth, low inflation (and at times, deflationary) environment.
CB LEI: Falls Again in May
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
World’s Central Banks Unleash Most Hawkish Campaign Since 1980s
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
Chart of the Week: Is the US Dollar Poised to Enter a Bear Market?
US dollar cycles last an average of six to nine years, and we are approaching the tenth year of this dollar bull market.
The Bear Is Here
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.
Bond Market Losses Just Beginning as Fed Sets Path to 4% Yields
It’s too soon to call an end to America’s worst bond-market collapse in at least half a century.
Closer Look: Postcard from Mexico
Mexico was the best-performing Latin American market in 2021 and our recent trip reinforced the reasons to remain bullish.
Nearly $16 Trillion in the Rear-View Mirror
A historic shift in central bank policy is currently underway. The implications of this change are likely to be varied and in some instances substantial.
Federal Reserve Must Do More Than Raise Rates by 75 Points
While the market chatter in the run-up to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision has understandably focused on whether the increase will be 50 or 75 basis points, the critical issue in play is a broader one.
Three Surprising Lessons from Decades of Research
Here are the major takeaways from my two decades research into how advisors can more effectively work with prospects and clients.
The Future of Food is Technology
In our new piece from the Franklin Templeton Institute, we examine the challenge of feeding a growing global population in the midst of climate change, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty.
Tesla, MicroStrategy, Ark ETF Need to Capitulate Before Stocks Bottom
MicroStrategy Inc., ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund, Tesla Inc. and Twitter Inc. are what I’m watching to identify the ultimate capitulation point of this cycle.
The Fed Has No Choice But to Let This Tantrum Rip
With the Federal Open Markets Committee due to meet Wednesday, there was no way policy makers could guide the market on how last week’s awful inflation data for May had changed their plans.
Red-Hot Lithium Boom Pits Wall Street Against the Wonks
There’s a fight brewing in the lithium market, after a controversial forecast from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts set off a backlash among some of the industry’s most prominent experts.
Global Stock Rout Prompts Call for Back-to-Basics Investing
Traders unnerved by a selloff that hit stocks and bonds alike are looking for refuge, increasing the appeal of investments offering reliable returns such as shares that pay steady dividends.
Semiconductors: A Less Cyclical Future
The proliferation of semiconductors throughout our economy may drive more durable, less cyclical demand and earnings.
Sobering News for ESG Investors
New research shows that positive returns to ESG portfolios from 2018-2020 were attributed to increased demand for “green“ stocks, raising the question of whether that outperformance will be sustained.
Oil Extends Losses Near $118 as Global Market Selloff Deepens
Oil extended losses for a third session as the prospect of further monetary tightening to combat surging US inflation sent global markets spiraling lower.
Bitcoin Tumbles to 18-Month Low After Latest DeFi Lender Blowup
Bitcoin plunged to the lowest in about 18 months after the freezing of withdrawals by the Celsius lending platform added to concern that systemic risk in the crypto ecosystem will accelerate the digital-asset market meltdown.
Hedge Funds Chasing ESG Billions Get Help From Researchers
Hedge funds eager to prove that short-selling is a legitimate ESG strategy just got some fresh material to back their case.
We’re Living in a Material World
Madonna was right. That iPhone on which you may be reading this article is far less important to society than the materials – like steel and plastic – that were used to build it.
It’s Time to Get Biofuels Out of Your Gas Tank
The global trade in the cheapest foods is grinding to a halt.
Are We Headed for Recession? Gold and Bitcoin Could Offer Some Cover
There’s no way of knowing for certain whether a recession is imminent, but for many Americans, it’s sure starting to feel that way. According to Google, more people in the U.S. searched for the term “recession” than at any other time in the past two years.
A Trillion Here, a Trillion There…
Complaining about federal debt is a time-honored American tradition. Remember Ross Perot and his hockey-stick charts? Then there was Harry Figgie’s 1992 best-selling book, Bankruptcy 1995. It was quite a sensation at the time.
Stagflation May Be Our Next Stop (but that is not what I am worried about)
I have been doing this long enough to know that the economy is a complex, self-adjusting mechanism, and thus the grim picture I have painted in this and previous articles may not play out.
US Inflation Quickens to 40-Year High, Pressuring Fed and Biden
US inflation accelerated to a fresh 40-year high in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy.
That Chevy Feels A Lot Better Than a Tesla Right Now
Sedans are a rarity and electrics even more so. That’s even as pump prices are surging.
Does This CDO Come in Green? With ESG Everywhere, Buyers Beware
It started with bonds. Now even collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) come in green.
Today's Options Market Update
Stocks modestly lower ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report.
Global Luxury Sales Expected To Recover As Shanghai Ends Lockdown
Shanghai, the Chinese commercial hub with 26 million residents, ended its two-month citywide pandemic lockdown last week, a sign that the world’s second largest economy may be ready to return to business-as-usual.
Parents Are Buying Homes for Kids Priced Out of the Housing Market
Even as the US real estate market shows signs of cooling, inflation and higher interest rates are making it difficult for young house hunters to buy properties — at least on their own.
Market Optimists Make the Case That 2022 Will End on High Note
As corporate leaders increase their grim pronouncements about the future, there are still market economists who see stocks heading higher in the second half of this year and who say the US could sidestep a recession.
Inflation's 'Fun' Period Was Way Too Brief
Consumer confidence has tanked, with the University of Michigan’s widely followed sentiment index at its lowest since 2011. This is incongruous with the fact that the labor market is very hot.
‘Train Wreck’ Economy or Red-Hot Inflation Is Big New Bond Call
A wild year on Wall Street has traders fretting one of two extreme scenarios will engulf the $23 trillion Treasury market ahead: Either a fresh bond selloff thanks to red-hot inflation -- or a sustained rally on mounting recession risk that sends yields back toward historic lows.
Bull Market Rhymes
Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.
Gundlach: Oil Could Hit $150 This Summer
The price of oil, as measured by the benchmark WTI index, could hit $150 this summer, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. That price may not be sustained, he said, “but the path of least resistance for oil prices is up.”
Markets Primed To Be Hawkish On Rates
The ECB and the Fed both need to quickly normalize policy from the emergency settings adopted when the pandemic first hit.
Japan Finally Gets Some Inflation
Japan zero-inflation mindset is no match for today's price pressures.
Saudi Arabia Is Swinging Again – But for How Long?
The most recent change on the supply side of the global oil market has involved Saudi Arabia suddenly and dramatically regaining its swing-producer role.
Is Gold the Answer?
Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.
The Rental Car Apocalypse Has a Terrible Sequel
If you’re itching for a dream vacation this summer after two years of travel restrictions, then you might end up paying more to rent a car than you spend on a plane ticket.
Gold’s Haven Appeal Burnished by Drumbeat of Growth Warnings
Gold may be heading for another rally, with warnings over a global economic slowdown paving the way for a fresh push toward $2,000 an ounce.
Bank Of Canada Lifts Rates By 50 Basis Points Again. Is an Even Steeper Increase in the Cards?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies, Shailesh Kshatriya, and Director of Institutional Investment Solutions, Greg Coffey, discussed the recent PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings from China and the U.S.
Schwab Market Update: Stocks Lower as Volatility Continues
U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.