Join the experts at Kraneshares and VettaFi for a webcast digging into how advisors can more strategically deploy allocations to China and benefit from broad emerging markets exposure.
With negligible incremental risk, a RAFI Global Index hypothetically outperformed a Cap-Weighted Global Index by 40 bps per annum and a Cap-Weighted Global Value Index by 2.2% from 2007 to 2022—a 16-year period covering the long value rout and its aftermath.
Five of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through October 2, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 21.71%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 12.14% while India's BSE SENSEX finished in third with a YTD gain of 7.40%.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is up 70 basis points this year, leading many to question the future direction of interest rates. Let’s look at the underlying causes of this and whether those conditions are likely to persist.
We can and are building much taller skyscrapers. But they are impractical money losers because so much floor space is taken up by elevators. A new book explains the interplay between size and scale, and what it means for our economy and investments.
Common aphorisms and assumed truths about stock returns often imply the disappearance of risk over long horizons. Is that accurate?
Offices in many of the world’s major cities are struggling to find workers to occupy them. The trend of remote working, triggered by the pandemic, is costing Manhattan “$12 billion a year,” “devastating America’s cities” and “killing London.”
The September S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 49.8 from 47.9 in August, signaling only a fractional decline in operating conditions. The September reading was higher than the expected 48.9 reading.
Hedge funds are in regulators’ sights again. Their risk-taking with borrowed money must be better monitored and will sometimes have to be limited, the head of a global group of supervisors told the Financial Times last week.
Office prices in the US are due for a crash, and the commercial real estate market faces at least another nine months of declines, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
The third quarter was a story of dashed hopes in emerging markets, with the unraveling of some of the most profitable trades in the asset class.
Last week was all about financial factors, primarily interest rates. But this week was all about the real economy, notably the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike and the pending government shutdown. Indeed, worries about a recession rose on those two risks.
Resurgent energy prices could contribute to higher for longer monetary policy.
The Chinese yuan has lost nearly 6% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, while Shanghai-listed stocks are off about 8% from their 2023 high, set back in May.
The prevailing narrative about the U.S. economy is that it’s ‘resilient’: despite rapid rate hikes, economic growth has held up and may even be accelerating.
We believe a mild U.S. recession is more likely than not in 2024, although a soft-landing scenario cannot be ruled out. A recession is also likely in the UK and eurozone, but appears less likely in Australia.
It was the week that bond markets finally seemed to grasp what central bankers have been warning all year: higher interest rates are here to stay.
Rising real interest rates invariably trigger recessions. The residual impact of pandemic related behaviors delayed the impact in this cycle.
The Fed-induced selloff in technology stocks has traders dusting off their turmoil playbooks. Trouble is, one of the most popular strategies isn’t working: hiding out in Apple Inc.
Lawmakers in the US House omitted further aid to Ukraine from a proposal that would keep the government open, signaling that support for funding its fight against the Russian invasion is getting harder.
The Bank of Japan met last night to cap off a week of central bank activity.
Gilt prices have been struggling this past year due to surging inflation and interest-rate increases. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Head of European Fixed Income, shares his outlook for the UK economy and why he thinks now is a good time to consider investing in gilts.
Intermission is over. Today we resume my series on the global cycle theories that, probably not by coincidence, all point to major change unfolding in the next few years. Finishing it may take some time since I keep finding new material.
China’s growth has slowed, but the context is important—an intentional transition to a more balanced economy that relies less on investment and exports.
For all the importance of China’s subpar recovery, the country's woes are notably absent from the plethora of projections and commentary that flow from the Federal Reserve these days. Judging from recent remarks, there's either no problem or nothing sufficiently grave to prod Chair Jay Powell to hint at switching gears. Give it time.
Share debuts among technology companies haven’t inspired confidence this year, with two of the largest offerings sliding below their listing prices within the first week. The next big deal may reignite interest in IPOs because of a unique set of traits.
Russia plans to reduce diesel exports from its key western ports to almost nothing next month after the government banned overseas sales to tame surging prices at home.
Monetary tightening still continues in the form of quantitative tightening, bringing potential volatility, earnings pressures, and lackluster performance to stock markets.
I’ve been writing financial newsletters for 15 years. I have seen a few cycles. There have been good times and bad times, thrills and spills.
Few companies have felt the shock from soaring interest rates as much as those owned by private equity. But thanks to surprisingly resilient earnings and their deep-pocketed owners’ talent for financial engineering most are avoiding disaster.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Sept. 20 remarks represented the first time the Fed leadership has sanctioned the idea that the equilibrium policy rate has risen this year; previously, Powell repeatedly avoided taking a view.
Evidence of China's slowdown is appearing in unexpected places.
Historically, government shutdowns have not caused a major reaction in the markets. But shutdowns can increase market volatility, and an extended shutdown could have an impact on the overall economy.
EnerSys is a leader in stored energy solutions. Based in Reading, Pennsylvania, this company makes batteries, chargers, and accessories for transportation, aerospace, and defense.
China’s goal of self-reliance will certainly rely on innovation. Right now, the second-largest economy sits firmly atop the list of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) when it comes to innovation on a global scale.
Private infrastructure offers unique investment characteristics and potential diversification benefits for portfolio construction.
Even the best scientists in the world cannot reliably forecast drug-test results, so why should investors gamble? Quality businesses are key for healthcare stocks.
Here are the 10 best books I read from September 2022 through August 2023.
Investors that missed out on this year’s dizzying rally in Nvidia Corp. have an attractive entry point this month.
Today, in a shock decision, the Bank of England (BoE) left its policy rate at 5.25% by the tightest possible majority vote of 5-4. All but one of 65 economists polled by Reuters had predicted that the BoE would raise the rate to 5.5%.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
Energy and Gold Produces Face Increasing Pressures, Crimping Supply.
The Big Myth is the remarkable, and largely untold, story of how America fell in love with market fundamentalism.
The hit TV series “That 70s Show” aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living in Wisconsin in the late 70s.
Some seven weeks ago, hedge fund investor Bill Ackman laid out his rationale for shorting long-term US bonds, and I took exception.
I, however, like all Kens, have always had a firm grip on the remote for 100% of the time but I decided to let her have her way just once.
When it comes to sheer equities performance over the last 30 years, there’s no denying the United States compared to the rest of the world. However, that could be changing according to one hedge fund manager.
Many of the speakers and attendees were bullish on the physical metal, pointing to gold’s resilience in the face of a very strong U.S. dollar and multiyear-high yields.
Honeywell International Inc. is a global leader in diversified technology and manufacturing. As sectors like aerospace and construction undergo rapid changes, there’s a demand for solutions that boost efficiency while prioritizing safety.
Fund managers have been avoiding emerging markets (EM), especially when it comes to China. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities that exist.
The Federal Reserve weighs the data while investors wonder: Is the rate-hike cycle over?
Last week we began exploring the details of my personal portfolio. This week we will finish and then move back to our discussion of various cycles.
With the rapid pace of urbanization, there’s an increasing demand for efficient and sustainable power solutions, and ABB’s advancements in smart grids and renewable energy integration are pivotal in meeting the demands of this transition.
Over the last 100 years, the US equity market has returned about 9% annually. What will it return over the next 100 years?
While some stocks may seem expensive, there are areas of opportunity that feature attractive valuations and growth catalysts, according to the Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team.
Treasury 10-year yields rose above 4.5% for the first time since 2007 as a more hawkish Federal Reserve adds to concern the bonds face a toxic mix of large US fiscal deficits and persistent inflation.
Given concentration risk, understanding what a strategy and portfolio owns is more important than ever in current markets.
Investment bankers were finally starting to believe in the green shoots of capital-markets activity this month, but the Federal Reserve might now have crushed them under hawkish boots.
During a five-day tour of India earlier this month, Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang visited four cities, dined with tech executives and researchers, took numerous selfies, and sat for a one-on-one conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi about the AI sector.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management has acquired a fellow exchange-traded fund issuer in its biggest push yet into Europe’s nascent market for trend-driven investing.
The biggest growth companies continue to increase their concentration in major equity indexes this year. It’s not surprising that investors are starting to rethink their exposure to large-caps, given concentration risk and ongoing market uncertainty.
Thematic ETFs have come a long way since they made their full debut in the ETF ecosystem.
The European Central Bank is likely at or very near its peak policy rate, but we don’t expect rate cuts in the near term.
What’s inside an ETF really matters. This is an argument I’ve been making for more than a decade. However, with the growth of alternatively weighted index ETFs and actively managed products, this has become even more notable.
Banks are never fans of tougher regulation, but they really don’t like the overhaul of US capital rules proposed at the end of July by the Federal Reserve and other finance authorities. Lenders and their lobbyists have come out fighting.
Investors have had a lot thrown at them this year: more Federal Reserve tightening, a regional banking crisis, and geopolitical turmoil. And yet US stock indexes are on track for a stellar year.
A return to the Great Moderation Era looks unlikely, which might lead to an increasingly volatile—and somewhat unfamiliar—inflationary, economic, and geopolitical landscape.
The term “Bond Vigilantes” is a nostalgic twist on an old-west theme. In the nineteenth century, the American West formed self-appointed groups, or committees, to seize the duties of law enforcement and judicial authority in situations when citizens found law enforcement lacking or inadequate.
Now seems like a good time to talk about wrappers and which ones are best for different situations. How do you decide whether to use an ETF, a mutual fund, or something else?
Despite substantial growth and huge advancements in public policy support, clean energy has had an abysmal stretch in the stock market the last two and a half years.
Join the experts at VettaFi and KraneShares for an exploration of China’s cleantech and how it could be positioned for tremendous growth in the coming years.
Credit Research Analysts Greg Schantz and Julian Wellesley dive into why they favor European banks vs US banks and why they see a potential opportunity in Yankee bank bonds.
In a significant turnaround for its aviation sector, Mexico’s air safety rating was upgraded from Category 2 back to Category 1 by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The upgrade could be a game-changer, offering opportunities for both Mexican airlines and their U.S. joint venture partners.
Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
Soft consumer confidence and property-market woes are playing a large role in the slowdown of China’s economy.
Now, is it an oversimplification to say that the upgrade to GDP growth is just down to Taylor Swift and Beyoncé? It is, to a degree, no matter how popular they are—and they are very popular indeed.
Bearish China traders have had the upper hand for most of the year. Still, easing deflation could give bulls a glimmer of hope.
Bridgewater Associates LP founder Ray Dalio said he doesn’t want to own bonds and prefers cash, highlighting difficulties investors face as global central banks try to manage inflation.
Although US bond yields are well above their lows of the past decade, it’s always a good idea to think globally.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues are likely to shy away from signaling that they’re done raising interest rates when they meet next week.
Last week the World Gold Council reported that central banks continued to add to their global gold reserves during the month of July. The World Gold Council also highlighted that China, Poland and Turkey were among the countries that were the largest buyers of gold during the month.
All week, stock traders have shrugged off everything from hot inflation data in the US to another recession-threatening hike in interest rates over in Europe.
Inflation averaged 1.8% in the ten years pre-COVID. Don’t expect inflation to average that low in the decade ahead. Not until the US finds a way to repeat the 1980s policy mix.
A recent paper analyzing the correlation between stock and bond returns going back to 1875 suggests the relationship of the past quarter century is shifting in an uncertain inflationary environment. The results might stimulate some investors to rethink their portfolio allocations.
Expectations of central-bank interventions are helping to steady emerging-market currencies, even as traders adjust to a higher-for-longer regime for developed market interest rates.
Recently, some clarity emerged on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) — two of the most important names in the semiconductor industry.
From the dense Amazon jungle to wide stretches of Malaysian palm oil plantations, agricultural practices have been stripping the world of vital forests for decades.
Many advisors aren’t familiar with financial phobias. They are common and can be debilitating.
When I first read about the discovery of a vast new deposit of lithium in a volcanic crater along the Nevada-Oregon border, I can’t say that I was surprised.
A flurry of hedge funds, direct lenders and others are expecting a revival of the $1.3 trillion collateralized loan obligation market — and they want to be ready to reap the benefits when it happens.
Asian/European Markets
Right-Sizing China Exposure In Emerging Markets
Join the experts at Kraneshares and VettaFi for a webcast digging into how advisors can more strategically deploy allocations to China and benefit from broad emerging markets exposure.
Rocking with RAFI: International Evidence
With negligible incremental risk, a RAFI Global Index hypothetically outperformed a Cap-Weighted Global Index by 40 bps per annum and a Cap-Weighted Global Value Index by 2.2% from 2007 to 2022—a 16-year period covering the long value rout and its aftermath.
World Markets Watchlist: October 2, 2023
Five of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through October 2, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 21.71%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 12.14% while India's BSE SENSEX finished in third with a YTD gain of 7.40%.
Why Rates are Rising
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is up 70 basis points this year, leading many to question the future direction of interest rates. Let’s look at the underlying causes of this and whether those conditions are likely to persist.
Why Are Elephants So Smart and Buildings So Short?
We can and are building much taller skyscrapers. But they are impractical money losers because so much floor space is taken up by elevators. A new book explains the interplay between size and scale, and what it means for our economy and investments.
Long-Horizon Investing, Part 2: Stocks are Always Risky
Common aphorisms and assumed truths about stock returns often imply the disappearance of risk over long horizons. Is that accurate?
Manhattan’s Offices Are Empty. Tokyo Is Adding New Space.
Offices in many of the world’s major cities are struggling to find workers to occupy them. The trend of remote working, triggered by the pandemic, is costing Manhattan “$12 billion a year,” “devastating America’s cities” and “killing London.”
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Slower Contraction in September
The September S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 49.8 from 47.9 in August, signaling only a fractional decline in operating conditions. The September reading was higher than the expected 48.9 reading.
Why Central Banks Will Soon Lend to Hedge Funds
Hedge funds are in regulators’ sights again. Their risk-taking with borrowed money must be better monitored and will sometimes have to be limited, the head of a global group of supervisors told the Financial Times last week.
Severe Crash Is Coming for US Office Properties, Investors Say
Office prices in the US are due for a crash, and the commercial real estate market faces at least another nine months of declines, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
The Bull Case for Emerging Markets in 2023 Is Finally Shattering
The third quarter was a story of dashed hopes in emerging markets, with the unraveling of some of the most profitable trades in the asset class.
What Mattered This Week? The Real Economy
Last week was all about financial factors, primarily interest rates. But this week was all about the real economy, notably the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike and the pending government shutdown. Indeed, worries about a recession rose on those two risks.
Energy Prices Are Creating Discomfort
Resurgent energy prices could contribute to higher for longer monetary policy.
China’s Economic Woes Have Sparked A Gold Rush
The Chinese yuan has lost nearly 6% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, while Shanghai-listed stocks are off about 8% from their 2023 high, set back in May.
Stealth Stagnation: Why the U.S. Economy Is Not as Robust as You Think
The prevailing narrative about the U.S. economy is that it’s ‘resilient’: despite rapid rate hikes, economic growth has held up and may even be accelerating.
2023 Global Market Outlook – Q4 Update: Falling with Style
We believe a mild U.S. recession is more likely than not in 2024, although a soft-landing scenario cannot be ruled out. A recession is also likely in the UK and eurozone, but appears less likely in Australia.
Once Unthinkable Bond Yields Are Now the New Normal for Markets
It was the week that bond markets finally seemed to grasp what central bankers have been warning all year: higher interest rates are here to stay.
Visions of Sugar Plums and Soft Landings
Rising real interest rates invariably trigger recessions. The residual impact of pandemic related
behaviors delayed the impact in this cycle.
Megacap Slump Is Testing Apple’s Safe-Haven Status
The Fed-induced selloff in technology stocks has traders dusting off their turmoil playbooks. Trouble is, one of the most popular strategies isn’t working: hiding out in Apple Inc.
House Omits Ukraine Funding for Now in Measure to Avert Shutdown
Lawmakers in the US House omitted further aid to Ukraine from a proposal that would keep the government open, signaling that support for funding its fight against the Russian invasion is getting harder.
The Market Thinks the BoJ is In Play
The Bank of Japan met last night to cap off a week of central bank activity.
What’s Next for Gilts and the United Kingdom?
Gilt prices have been struggling this past year due to surging inflation and interest-rate increases. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Head of European Fixed Income, shares his outlook for the UK economy and why he thinks now is a good time to consider investing in gilts.
Cyclical Forces
Intermission is over. Today we resume my series on the global cycle theories that, probably not by coincidence, all point to major change unfolding in the next few years. Finishing it may take some time since I keep finding new material.
China’s Growth Is Slowing: What Does it Mean?
China’s growth has slowed, but the context is important—an intentional transition to a more balanced economy that relies less on investment and exports.
Powell Can’t Ignore the Elephant in the Room Forever
For all the importance of China’s subpar recovery, the country's woes are notably absent from the plethora of projections and commentary that flow from the Federal Reserve these days. Judging from recent remarks, there's either no problem or nothing sufficiently grave to prod Chair Jay Powell to hint at switching gears. Give it time.
This Year’s Hottest Tech IPO May Be a Transportation Firm
Share debuts among technology companies haven’t inspired confidence this year, with two of the largest offerings sliding below their listing prices within the first week. The next big deal may reignite interest in IPOs because of a unique set of traits.
Russia Plans Near Zero Diesel Exports Next Month After Ban
Russia plans to reduce diesel exports from its key western ports to almost nothing next month after the government banned overseas sales to tame surging prices at home.
Risk: Hikes May Be Over, But QT Goes On
Monetary tightening still continues in the form of quantitative tightening, bringing potential volatility, earnings pressures, and lackluster performance to stock markets.
The Great Malaise
I’ve been writing financial newsletters for 15 years. I have seen a few cycles. There have been good times and bad times, thrills and spills.
Where Are All the Private Equity Bankruptcies?
Few companies have felt the shock from soaring interest rates as much as those owned by private equity. But thanks to surprisingly resilient earnings and their deep-pocketed owners’ talent for financial engineering most are avoiding disaster.
What Powell Said and What It Means for Markets
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Sept. 20 remarks represented the first time the Fed leadership has sanctioned the idea that the equilibrium policy rate has risen this year; previously, Powell repeatedly avoided taking a view.
Shifting Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt
Evidence of China's slowdown is appearing in unexpected places.
Congress Scrambling to Avoid Government Shutdown
Historically, government shutdowns have not caused a major reaction in the markets. But shutdowns can increase market volatility, and an extended shutdown could have an impact on the overall economy.
Powering the Future of Stored Energy
EnerSys is a leader in stored energy solutions. Based in Reading, Pennsylvania, this company makes batteries, chargers, and accessories for transportation, aerospace, and defense.
China Sits Firmly Atop Global Innovation Index
China’s goal of self-reliance will certainly rely on innovation. Right now, the second-largest economy sits firmly atop the list of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) when it comes to innovation on a global scale.
Unlisted Infrastructure – Highway to Diversification
Private infrastructure offers unique investment characteristics and potential diversification benefits for portfolio construction.
Healthcare Stocks Invest in Business, not Science
Even the best scientists in the world cannot reliably forecast drug-test results, so why should investors gamble? Quality businesses are key for healthcare stocks.
The 10 Best Non-Fiction Books of This Year
Here are the 10 best books I read from September 2022 through August 2023.
Nvidia’s Worst Month in a Year Is a Gift For Bulls
Investors that missed out on this year’s dizzying rally in Nvidia Corp. have an attractive entry point this month.
Bank of England: A surprise end to UK rate hikes?
Today, in a shock decision, the Bank of England (BoE) left its policy rate at 5.25% by the tightest possible majority vote of 5-4. All but one of 65 economists polled by Reuters had predicted that the BoE would raise the rate to 5.5%.
Global Economic Outlook: China Casts a Shadow in the East…and West
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
Biden Administration Expands War on Critical Natural Resources
Energy and Gold Produces Face Increasing Pressures, Crimping Supply.
How America Fell in Love with the Power of the Free Market
The Big Myth is the remarkable, and largely untold, story of how America fell in love with market fundamentalism.
“That 70s Show”
The hit TV series “That 70s Show” aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living in Wisconsin in the late 70s.
Ackman Doubles Down on Bond Short That’s Still Flawed
Some seven weeks ago, hedge fund investor Bill Ackman laid out his rationale for shorting long-term US bonds, and I took exception.
Call Me Ken
I, however, like all Kens, have always had a firm grip on the remote for 100% of the time but I decided to let her have her way just once.
Hedge Fund Manager Sees Opportunities in International Equities
When it comes to sheer equities performance over the last 30 years, there’s no denying the United States compared to the rest of the world. However, that could be changing according to one hedge fund manager.
Why Junior Gold Stocks Could Be Gearing Up For A Glittering Performance
Many of the speakers and attendees were bullish on the physical metal, pointing to gold’s resilience in the face of a very strong U.S. dollar and multiyear-high yields.
Mastery in Sustainable Energy Innovation
Honeywell International Inc. is a global leader in diversified technology and manufacturing. As sectors like aerospace and construction undergo rapid changes, there’s a demand for solutions that boost efficiency while prioritizing safety.
Despite Fund Managers Exiting Emerging Markets Assets, Opportunities Exist
Fund managers have been avoiding emerging markets (EM), especially when it comes to China. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities that exist.
Quarterly Market Outlook: A Delicate Balance
The Federal Reserve weighs the data while investors wonder: Is the rate-hike cycle over?
More Personal Portfolio: Biotech, Commodities, and Gold
Last week we began exploring the details of my personal portfolio. This week we will finish and then move back to our discussion of various cycles.
Wired for the Future
With the rapid pace of urbanization, there’s an increasing demand for efficient and sustainable power solutions, and ABB’s advancements in smart grids and renewable energy integration are pivotal in meeting the demands of this transition.
The Next 100 Years
Over the last 100 years, the US equity market has returned about 9% annually. What will it return over the next 100 years?
Where to Add Risk in Multi-Asset Portfolios Right Now
While some stocks may seem expensive, there are areas of opportunity that feature attractive valuations and growth catalysts, according to the Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team.
Another Yield High as US 10-Year Jumps Above Key 4.5% Level in Post-Fed Bond Rout
Treasury 10-year yields rose above 4.5% for the first time since 2007 as a more hawkish Federal Reserve adds to concern the bonds face a toxic mix of large US fiscal deficits and persistent inflation.
The Importance of Valuations in High Concentration Markets
Given concentration risk, understanding what a strategy and portfolio owns is more important than ever in current markets.
Did Powell Just Stamp Out Bankers’ Green Shoots?
Investment bankers were finally starting to believe in the green shoots of capital-markets activity this month, but the Federal Reserve might now have crushed them under hawkish boots.
Nvidia CEO Touts India as Major AI Market in Bid to Hedge China Risks
During a five-day tour of India earlier this month, Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang visited four cities, dined with tech executives and researchers, took numerous selfies, and sat for a one-on-one conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi about the AI sector.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Buys Rize ETF in Big Bet on European Growth
Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management has acquired a fellow exchange-traded fund issuer in its biggest push yet into Europe’s nascent market for trend-driven investing.
Looking to Large-Caps: Where Do We Grow From Here?
The biggest growth companies continue to increase their concentration in major equity indexes this year. It’s not surprising that investors are starting to rethink their exposure to large-caps, given concentration risk and ongoing market uncertainty.
Thematic ETF Trends to Watch Entering 2024
Thematic ETFs have come a long way since they made their full debut in the ETF ecosystem.
ECB Prioritizes Fighting Inflation Above Avoiding Recession
The European Central Bank is likely at or very near its peak policy rate, but we don’t expect rate cuts in the near term.
Being Different From Index ETFs Can Add Value
What’s inside an ETF really matters. This is an argument I’ve been making for more than a decade. However, with the growth of alternatively weighted index ETFs and actively managed products, this has become even more notable.
Barr’s Battle Over US Bank Capital Rules Looks Lonely
Banks are never fans of tougher regulation, but they really don’t like the overhaul of US capital rules proposed at the end of July by the Federal Reserve and other finance authorities. Lenders and their lobbyists have come out fighting.
Big Seven Face Test on How Far Rally Can Run
Investors have had a lot thrown at them this year: more Federal Reserve tightening, a regional banking crisis, and geopolitical turmoil. And yet US stock indexes are on track for a stellar year.
Say Goodbye…to Great Moderation?
A return to the Great Moderation Era looks unlikely, which might lead to an increasingly volatile—and somewhat unfamiliar—inflationary, economic, and geopolitical landscape.
Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot
The term “Bond Vigilantes” is a nostalgic twist on an old-west theme. In the nineteenth century, the American West formed self-appointed groups, or committees, to seize the duties of law enforcement and judicial authority in situations when citizens found law enforcement lacking or inadequate.
VettaFi Voices On: Choosing Your Wrapper
Now seems like a good time to talk about wrappers and which ones are best for different situations. How do you decide whether to use an ETF, a mutual fund, or something else?
Turbulence on the Path to Transformation
Despite substantial growth and huge advancements in public policy support, clean energy has had an abysmal stretch in the stock market the last two and a half years.
Clean Tech Investing Opportunities from China: the World Leader in Renewable Energy
Join the experts at VettaFi and KraneShares for an exploration of China’s cleantech and how it could be positioned for tremendous growth in the coming years.
Shifting Trends Favor European Banks vs. US Banks for the First Time in Years
Credit Research Analysts Greg Schantz and Julian Wellesley dive into why they favor European banks vs US banks and why they see a potential opportunity in Yankee bank bonds.
Why Mexico’s Category 1 Air Safety Status Spells Good News For Investors
In a significant turnaround for its aviation sector, Mexico’s air safety rating was upgraded from Category 2 back to Category 1 by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The upgrade could be a game-changer, offering opportunities for both Mexican airlines and their U.S. joint venture partners.
Schwab Market Perspective: Tension
Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
China Hits a Speed Bump. Could the Road Ahead Feature More Stimulus?
Soft consumer confidence and property-market woes are playing a large role in the slowdown of China’s economy.
Barbie, Beyoncé, Taylor Swift and the Economic Outlook
Now, is it an oversimplification to say that the upgrade to GDP growth is just down to Taylor Swift and Beyoncé? It is, to a degree, no matter how popular they are—and they are very popular indeed.
Easing Deflation Could Give China Bulls Some Hope
Bearish China traders have had the upper hand for most of the year. Still, easing deflation could give bulls a glimmer of hope.
Ray Dalio Says He Doesn’t Want to Hold Bonds, Cash ‘Is Good’
Bridgewater Associates LP founder Ray Dalio said he doesn’t want to own bonds and prefers cash, highlighting difficulties investors face as global central banks try to manage inflation.
Why Global Bonds Make Sense for US Investors
Although US bond yields are well above their lows of the past decade, it’s always a good idea to think globally.
Fed Is Likely to Shy Away From Calling Interest-Rate Peak Next Week
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues are likely to shy away from signaling that they’re done raising interest rates when they meet next week.
Central Banks and Investors Are Interested in Gold
Last week the World Gold Council reported that central banks continued to add to their global gold reserves during the month of July. The World Gold Council also highlighted that China, Poland and Turkey were among the countries that were the largest buyers of gold during the month.
A $4 Trillion ‘Triple Witching’ Event Endangers Stock Market Calm
All week, stock traders have shrugged off everything from hot inflation data in the US to another recession-threatening hike in interest rates over in Europe.
Our Stagflationary Future
Inflation averaged 1.8% in the ten years pre-COVID. Don’t expect inflation to average that low in the decade ahead. Not until the US finds a way to repeat the 1980s policy mix.
What Shifting Stock-Bond Correlations Mean for Your Money
A recent paper analyzing the correlation between stock and bond returns going back to 1875 suggests the relationship of the past quarter century is shifting in an uncertain inflationary environment. The results might stimulate some investors to rethink their portfolio allocations.
Emerging Markets Boosted by Interventions as Rate Fears Grow
Expectations of central-bank interventions are helping to steady emerging-market currencies, even as traders adjust to a higher-for-longer regime for developed market interest rates.
Clarity Arrives for Pair of Big-Name Chip Stocks
Recently, some clarity emerged on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) — two of the most important names in the semiconductor industry.
Tree Spotting: Detecting Deforestation Risks One Company at a Time
From the dense Amazon jungle to wide stretches of Malaysian palm oil plantations, agricultural practices have been stripping the world of vital forests for decades.
Little Known Financial Phobias
Many advisors aren’t familiar with financial phobias. They are common and can be debilitating.
A Huge Lithium Discovery That Economists Were Expecting
When I first read about the discovery of a vast new deposit of lithium in a volcanic crater along the Nevada-Oregon border, I can’t say that I was surprised.
New CLO Managers Eye $1.3 Trillion Market, Betting on Return
A flurry of hedge funds, direct lenders and others are expecting a revival of the $1.3 trillion collateralized loan obligation market — and they want to be ready to reap the benefits when it happens.