Asian/European Markets

We believe a mild U.S. recession is more likely than not in 2024, although a soft-landing scenario cannot be ruled out. A recession is also likely in the UK and eurozone, but appears less likely in Australia.

Rising real interest rates invariably trigger recessions. The residual impact of pandemic related
behaviors delayed the impact in this cycle.

The Bank of Japan met last night to cap off a week of central bank activity.

Gilt prices have been struggling this past year due to surging inflation and interest-rate increases. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Head of European Fixed Income, shares his outlook for the UK economy and why he thinks now is a good time to consider investing in gilts.

Intermission is over. Today we resume my series on the global cycle theories that, probably not by coincidence, all point to major change unfolding in the next few years. Finishing it may take some time since I keep finding new material.

China’s growth has slowed, but the context is important—an intentional transition to a more balanced economy that relies less on investment and exports.

Monetary tightening still continues in the form of quantitative tightening, bringing potential volatility, earnings pressures, and lackluster performance to stock markets.

I’ve been writing financial newsletters for 15 years. I have seen a few cycles. There have been good times and bad times, thrills and spills.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Sept. 20 remarks represented the first time the Fed leadership has sanctioned the idea that the equilibrium policy rate has risen this year; previously, Powell repeatedly avoided taking a view.

Evidence of China's slowdown is appearing in unexpected places.

Historically, government shutdowns have not caused a major reaction in the markets. But shutdowns can increase market volatility, and an extended shutdown could have an impact on the overall economy.

EnerSys is a leader in stored energy solutions. Based in Reading, Pennsylvania, this company makes batteries, chargers, and accessories for transportation, aerospace, and defense.

China’s goal of self-reliance will certainly rely on innovation. Right now, the second-largest economy sits firmly atop the list of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) when it comes to innovation on a global scale.

Private infrastructure offers unique investment characteristics and potential diversification benefits for portfolio construction.

Even the best scientists in the world cannot reliably forecast drug-test results, so why should investors gamble? Quality businesses are key for healthcare stocks.

Today, in a shock decision, the Bank of England (BoE) left its policy rate at 5.25% by the tightest possible majority vote of 5-4. All but one of 65 economists polled by Reuters had predicted that the BoE would raise the rate to 5.5%.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.

Energy and Gold Produces Face Increasing Pressures, Crimping Supply.

The hit TV series “That 70s Show” aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living in Wisconsin in the late 70s.

I, however, like all Kens, have always had a firm grip on the remote for 100% of the time but I decided to let her have her way just once.

When it comes to sheer equities performance over the last 30 years, there’s no denying the United States compared to the rest of the world. However, that could be changing according to one hedge fund manager.

Many of the speakers and attendees were bullish on the physical metal, pointing to gold’s resilience in the face of a very strong U.S. dollar and multiyear-high yields.

Honeywell International Inc. is a global leader in diversified technology and manufacturing. As sectors like aerospace and construction undergo rapid changes, there’s a demand for solutions that boost efficiency while prioritizing safety.

Fund managers have been avoiding emerging markets (EM), especially when it comes to China. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities that exist.

The Federal Reserve weighs the data while investors wonder: Is the rate-hike cycle over?

Last week we began exploring the details of my personal portfolio. This week we will finish and then move back to our discussion of various cycles.

With the rapid pace of urbanization, there’s an increasing demand for efficient and sustainable power solutions, and ABB’s advancements in smart grids and renewable energy integration are pivotal in meeting the demands of this transition.

Over the last 100 years, the US equity market has returned about 9% annually. What will it return over the next 100 years?

While some stocks may seem expensive, there are areas of opportunity that feature attractive valuations and growth catalysts, according to the Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team.

Given concentration risk, understanding what a strategy and portfolio owns is more important than ever in current markets.

The biggest growth companies continue to increase their concentration in major equity indexes this year. It’s not surprising that investors are starting to rethink their exposure to large-caps, given concentration risk and ongoing market uncertainty.

Thematic ETFs have come a long way since they made their full debut in the ETF ecosystem.

The European Central Bank is likely at or very near its peak policy rate, but we don’t expect rate cuts in the near term.

What’s inside an ETF really matters. This is an argument I’ve been making for more than a decade. However, with the growth of alternatively weighted index ETFs and actively managed products, this has become even more notable.

A return to the Great Moderation Era looks unlikely, which might lead to an increasingly volatile—and somewhat unfamiliar—inflationary, economic, and geopolitical landscape.

The term “Bond Vigilantes” is a nostalgic twist on an old-west theme. In the nineteenth century, the American West formed self-appointed groups, or committees, to seize the duties of law enforcement and judicial authority in situations when citizens found law enforcement lacking or inadequate.

Now seems like a good time to talk about wrappers and which ones are best for different situations. How do you decide whether to use an ETF, a mutual fund, or something else?

Despite substantial growth and huge advancements in public policy support, clean energy has had an abysmal stretch in the stock market the last two and a half years.

Credit Research Analysts Greg Schantz and Julian Wellesley dive into why they favor European banks vs US banks and why they see a potential opportunity in Yankee bank bonds.

In a significant turnaround for its aviation sector, Mexico’s air safety rating was upgraded from Category 2 back to Category 1 by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The upgrade could be a game-changer, offering opportunities for both Mexican airlines and their U.S. joint venture partners.

Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.

Soft consumer confidence and property-market woes are playing a large role in the slowdown of China’s economy.

Now, is it an oversimplification to say that the upgrade to GDP growth is just down to Taylor Swift and Beyoncé? It is, to a degree, no matter how popular they are—and they are very popular indeed.

Bearish China traders have had the upper hand for most of the year. Still, easing deflation could give bulls a glimmer of hope.

Although US bond yields are well above their lows of the past decade, it’s always a good idea to think globally.

Last week the World Gold Council reported that central banks continued to add to their global gold reserves during the month of July. The World Gold Council also highlighted that China, Poland and Turkey were among the countries that were the largest buyers of gold during the month.

Inflation averaged 1.8% in the ten years pre-COVID. Don’t expect inflation to average that low in the decade ahead. Not until the US finds a way to repeat the 1980s policy mix.

Recently, some clarity emerged on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) — two of the most important names in the semiconductor industry.

From the dense Amazon jungle to wide stretches of Malaysian palm oil plantations, agricultural practices have been stripping the world of vital forests for decades.