The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely protect US stocks from a big selloff, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals for lower corporate taxes.
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
Surging long-term interest rates and stubborn inflation are inflaming divisions among congressional Republicans over paying for the sweeping tax cuts Donald Trump promised, complicating the path to passage with the party’s already tenuous majority.
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
First came the raid on a Mexico City shopping center known for selling Chinese-made clothing, toys and electronics
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
No country wants external developments to drive up its borrowing costs and weaken its currency, which is what the UK is facing today, together with serious cyclical and structural challenges. But if the British government responds appropriately, recent market volatility might turn out to have a silver lining.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.
I wrote this from Las Vegas, where my son Jonah and I were at CES (the Consumer Electronics Show). In investing and life, it’s very easy to get tunnel vision – doing what works and staying in your comfort zone. I wanted to attend CES to shake myself out of this pattern.
Economic data and policies out of China are typically delayed until mid-March. Stock volatility may be prevalent until initiatives are clarified after the Lunar New Year.
US government bonds surged as benign inflation data prompted traders to resume their bets on additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by July.
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Wall Street was set for a higher open on Tuesday, though a renewed rise in Treasury yields damped the sentiment boost offered earlier by the prospect of gradually imposed US trade tariffs.
Chinese officials are evaluating a potential option that involves Elon Musk acquiring the US operations of TikTok if the company fails to fend off a controversial ban on the short-video app, according to people familiar with the matter.
“Risk,” according to London Business School’s Elroy Dimson, “means that more things can happen than will happen.” Serhii Plokhy’s Chernobyl Roulette provides the reader with a compelling demonstration of that dictum.
We need to face the reality that we’ve chosen a system that prioritizes lower taxes over centralized health care.
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
Two of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through January 13, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 0.54% while France's CAC 40 is the only other index in positive territory with a year to date gain of 0.20%.
We are pro-risk, with the biggest overweight in U.S. stocks, yet eye three areas that could spur a view change.
For decades, one of Saudi Arabia’s most strategic overseas outposts was a little-known office in New York City that coordinated its oil sales to American clients.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has upgraded its dollar forecasts, citing a robust US economy and likely higher tariffs that may slow monetary easing.
Treasuries extended their drop after Friday’s blowout employment report strengthened speculation that the Federal Reserve is poised to pause its interest-rate cuts for virtually all of this year.
OpenAI’s top executives are planning to host events in Washington DC and two key swing states to bolster support for investment in artificial intelligence as the company adapts to the biggest change in the US political landscape since ChatGPT launched.
As we enter 2025, the financial markets are optimistic. That optimism is fueled by strong market performance over the last two years and analyst’s projections for continued growth. However, as “Curb Your Enthusiasm” often demonstrates, even the best-laid plans can unravel when overlooked details come to light. Here are five reasons why a more cautious approach to investing might be warranted in 2025.
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
Rough times are coming, yes, but I think we have at least 12 good months before the worst gets here. Let’s look at some of the reasons why things should be okay and then look at some of the potential problems.
Gold certainly had a great 2024, but 2025 is already shaping up to be an opportune year to build up more exposure through ETFs.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s quarterly sales topped estimates, reinforcing investor hopes that the torrid pace of AI hardware spending will extend into 2025.
Chinese investors’ fierce appetite for overseas shares has triggered rare, full-day suspensions on a pair of exchange-traded funds tracking global equities.
When Mark Zuckerberg earnestly looked at a camera and told the world (or President-elect Donald Trump) that he was shutting down all fact-checking on Facebook and Instagram, he left out some important context.
US Treasuries plunged as evidence of a resilient labor market pushed traders to shift their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate cut to the second half of the year.
Indonesia isn’t taking a step back from its hardball approach to Apple Inc. The showdown has turned into quite a spectacle, but it’s unlikely the wins will be sustainable.
After cementing its position as the dominant player in the US for a niche but highly lucrative investment vehicle, Janus Henderson is looking to try its luck in Europe.
A messy, ongoing tech breakup between the US and China is forcing a rethink about what the industry might look like for consumers in a decoupled world.
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
Most people assume that the S&P 500 Index will go up over long holding periods.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said officials are on track to lower interest rates this year, but the exact timing will depend on what happens with the economy.
The selloffs that keep flaring in the world’s bond markets are pushing yields toward key thresholds amid escalating worries about elevated inflation, tempestuous politics and swelling government debts.
President Joe Biden’s administration plans one additional round of restrictions on the export of artificial intelligence chips from the likes of Nvidia Corp. just days before leaving office, a final push in his effort to keep advanced technologies out of the hands of China and Russia.
While the market has largely moved past that year’s recession debate, it’s worth noting that the traditional definition that persisted for all our careers—two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—did occur in the first half of 2022.
In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.
The question for investors will be to what degree US outperformance will extend to the financial markets.
On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.
As we turn the page on 2024 and look ahead into 2025, the key question on investors' minds is: can 2024’s positive momentum in the economy and financial markets continue into 2025?
For 2025 and beyond, a few particular global and industry trends can offer attractive long-term returns for advisors and investors alike.
Every central banker has a make-or-break moment. As the euro crisis raged in 2012, then-European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi took to describing the common currency as a “bumblebee”:
President-elect Donald Trump is said to be interested in the privatization of the US Postal Service, a prospect that also appeals to his DOGE project and its allies in Congress.
Three interconnected lessons from 2024 help shape our 2025 outlook.
The most important issue regarding what lies ahead from an economic perspective is that the economy’s fundamentals remain solid with very few misalignments that could derail it, at least for now.
2024 was about as good as it gets in the equity markets – with the BGEP up 31% and the broader market as a whole posting double digit gains. Underneath the surface, we believe that there are three main drivers of the year’s solid returns. We discuss them below in our market review and outlook.
The most telling moment in the Biden Administration’s decision to block Nippon Steel Corp.’s attempted takeover of United States Steel Corp. was unintentional.
The College Football playoffs included 12 teams this year and all five automatic berth teams (because they won their conference championships) are now out, including the top two ranked teams, Oregon and Georgia. It wasn’t supposed to turn out this way, and the debate about why has only just started.
Stocks rallied in 2024, delivering a second consecutive year of gains exceeding 20%, as investors embraced cooling inflation, falling interest rates and the prospect of lower corporate taxes under a second Trump administration.
Most people don’t pay much attention to the political process, either local or federal. This year I think it is something we should all be paying attention to as it might affect our various lives.
Money managers are seeing plenty of reasons to remain bullish on gold, following a stellar 2024 that saw the precious metal post its biggest annual gain since 2010.
What happens in the US economy doesn’t always stay there, particularly when it comes to the UK.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the central bank’s communication will be part of its 2025 monetary policy review.
European bond markets are climbing a mountain of worry. Despite the risks, history suggests a positive outcome.
The incoming Trump administration has set a goal of growing the economy by 3% per year, similar to promises made during Donald Trump’s first term in office.
To clear our notebooks entering 2025, here are quick perspectives on a range of topics.
Political uncertainty and volatility create fertile ground for active investors to find companies that can successfully navigate a new era.
Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.
The year ahead may present challenges as markets and the economy look to maintain momentum.
The AI market has evolved significantly in the past two years, shifting from a heavy reliance on mega-cap and semiconductor dominance to a more diverse set of beneficiaries.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. The latest reading was above the forecasted reading of 48.3.
Quant funds that make money surfing the momentum of markets saw a promising year slip away in 2024 when big bouts of volatility lashed everything from Japanese stocks to cocoa futures and Treasuries.
President Joe Biden has blocked the $14.1 billion sale of United States Steel Corp. to Nippon Steel Corp., killing a high-profile deal that sparked a political firestorm and tensions between the US and Japan.
Continued volatility, falling yields, and other expectations for the year ahead, plus seven strategies to take advantage.
December's market activity highlights the need for caution in the near term.
When Jaguar’s “copy nothing” brand reboot hit late last year, one self-styled car enthusiast replied on X: “What the actual hell is this.” Jaguar’s response: “The future.”
The clouds that hung over the financial-technology industry in 2024 appear to be clearing as interest-rate cuts, recoveries in fintech stocks and promises of a looser regulatory environment in the second Trump administration paint a more promising outlook for startups.
It’s that time of year when Wall Street soothsayers look ahead 12 months and try to divine the path of US stocks.
This year is shaping up to be a dramatic one for climate tech investors.
Asian/European Markets
The Definitive Guide to Where the US Has Squeezed Russia’s Oil Flows the Hardest
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
BofA’s Hartnett Says Trump Trade to Shield US Stocks From Plunge
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely protect US stocks from a big selloff, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals for lower corporate taxes.
Tariffs, Tempests, Turnarounds: What’s Next for Renewable Energy?
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
Reviewing Market and Economic Performance During the Biden Administration
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
Schwab Market Perspective: Markets vs. Economy
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
2025 Credit Outlook: On Firm Ground, Despite Shifting Political Sands
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
Surging Long-Term Rates Stoke GOP Tensions on Paying for Tax Cut
Surging long-term interest rates and stubborn inflation are inflaming divisions among congressional Republicans over paying for the sweeping tax cuts Donald Trump promised, complicating the path to passage with the party’s already tenuous majority.
Trump Team Readies Oil Sanctions Plan for Russia Deal, Iran Squeeze
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
Mexico Cozies Up to Trump With Crackdown on China Trade
First came the raid on a Mexico City shopping center known for selling Chinese-made clothing, toys and electronics
Elon Musk’s Robotopia Will Bloom in Aging Europe
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
Investment Considerations for the Second Trump Presidency
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
A Deep Dive on the Recent Spike in U.S. Treasury Yields
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
Will Higher Rates Doom Stocks? Not Necessarily
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
2024 and 2025 Investment Insights: The Magnificent 7 Stocks, Sector Growth, and Emerging Themes
Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.
US Bond ‘Death Spiral’ Risk Brushed Aside by Foreign Funds
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
Wall Street Has Best CPI Day Since at Least 2023: Markets Wrap
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
New Congress Faces Massive Policy Agenda
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
Shock-Proofing the UK Economy
No country wants external developments to drive up its borrowing costs and weaken its currency, which is what the UK is facing today, together with serious cyclical and structural challenges. But if the British government responds appropriately, recent market volatility might turn out to have a silver lining.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Why More Asset Managers Are Outsourcing or Co-sourcing Trading
Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.
Thoughts from the Consumer Electronics Show
I wrote this from Las Vegas, where my son Jonah and I were at CES (the Consumer Electronics Show). In investing and life, it’s very easy to get tunnel vision – doing what works and staying in your comfort zone. I wanted to attend CES to shake myself out of this pattern.
What's Ahead for China in 2025?
Economic data and policies out of China are typically delayed until mid-March. Stock volatility may be prevalent until initiatives are clarified after the Lunar New Year.
Treasuries Surge as Easing Inflation Boosts Fed Rate-Cut Bets
US government bonds surged as benign inflation data prompted traders to resume their bets on additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by July.
2025 Outlook: Run It Back
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Europe Moves Further Away From Russian Gas
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Expect Innovation Led American Exceptionalism to Continue
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Wall Street Set for Higher Open on Tariff Report
Wall Street was set for a higher open on Tuesday, though a renewed rise in Treasury yields damped the sentiment boost offered earlier by the prospect of gradually imposed US trade tariffs.
China Weighs Sale of TikTok US to Musk as a Possible Option
Chinese officials are evaluating a potential option that involves Elon Musk acquiring the US operations of TikTok if the company fails to fend off a controversial ban on the short-video app, according to people familiar with the matter.
Catastrophe’s Thin Red Line
“Risk,” according to London Business School’s Elroy Dimson, “means that more things can happen than will happen.” Serhii Plokhy’s Chernobyl Roulette provides the reader with a compelling demonstration of that dictum.
The Missing Piece in America’s Healthcare Debate
We need to face the reality that we’ve chosen a system that prioritizes lower taxes over centralized health care.
Private Credit Outlook: Expanding the Universe
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
Health Check: How Is the Global Economy Holding Up?
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
What We're Worrying About
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
World Markets Watchlist: January 13, 2025
Two of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through January 13, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 0.54% while France's CAC 40 is the only other index in positive territory with a year to date gain of 0.20%.
Triggers to Change Our Pro-Risk View
We are pro-risk, with the biggest overweight in U.S. stocks, yet eye three areas that could spur a view change.
US Reliance on Saudi Oil Is Nearing Its Endgame
For decades, one of Saudi Arabia’s most strategic overseas outposts was a little-known office in New York City that coordinated its oil sales to American clients.
Goldman Sees Dollar Rallying 5% or More as US Growth Dominates
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has upgraded its dollar forecasts, citing a robust US economy and likely higher tariffs that may slow monetary easing.
Treasuries Selloff Ripples Through World Markets After Jobs Data
Treasuries extended their drop after Friday’s blowout employment report strengthened speculation that the Federal Reserve is poised to pause its interest-rate cuts for virtually all of this year.
OpenAI Emphasizes China Competition in Pitch to a New Washington
OpenAI’s top executives are planning to host events in Washington DC and two key swing states to bolster support for investment in artificial intelligence as the company adapts to the biggest change in the US political landscape since ChatGPT launched.
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025
As we enter 2025, the financial markets are optimistic. That optimism is fueled by strong market performance over the last two years and analyst’s projections for continued growth. However, as “Curb Your Enthusiasm” often demonstrates, even the best-laid plans can unravel when overlooked details come to light. Here are five reasons why a more cautious approach to investing might be warranted in 2025.
The Top 10 U.S. Aerospace and Defense Contractors
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
A Partly Cloudy Year
Rough times are coming, yes, but I think we have at least 12 good months before the worst gets here. Let’s look at some of the reasons why things should be okay and then look at some of the potential problems.
Gold Investments Still Shine This Year
Gold certainly had a great 2024, but 2025 is already shaping up to be an opportune year to build up more exposure through ETFs.
TSMC Sales Beat Estimates in Boost for AI’s Outlook in 2025
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s quarterly sales topped estimates, reinforcing investor hopes that the torrid pace of AI hardware spending will extend into 2025.
Chinese Traders’ Demand for Global Stocks Prompt Rare ETF Halts
Chinese investors’ fierce appetite for overseas shares has triggered rare, full-day suspensions on a pair of exchange-traded funds tracking global equities.
A New World for Facebook and Instagram: Zuckerberg’s Splinternet
When Mark Zuckerberg earnestly looked at a camera and told the world (or President-elect Donald Trump) that he was shutting down all fact-checking on Facebook and Instagram, he left out some important context.
US 30-Year Yield Hits 5% as Traders Push Back Next Fed Rate Cut
US Treasuries plunged as evidence of a resilient labor market pushed traders to shift their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate cut to the second half of the year.
Indonesia’s Showdown With Apple Is Far From Over
Indonesia isn’t taking a step back from its hardball approach to Apple Inc. The showdown has turned into quite a spectacle, but it’s unlikely the wins will be sustainable.
Janus Henderson Takes CLO-Tracking Fund to Europe After US Win
After cementing its position as the dominant player in the US for a niche but highly lucrative investment vehicle, Janus Henderson is looking to try its luck in Europe.
US-China Tech Breakup Is a Race to the Bottom
A messy, ongoing tech breakup between the US and China is forcing a rethink about what the industry might look like for consumers in a decoupled world.
Q4 Recap: US Growth Closes the Year on Top
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
Can Howard Marks Spot a Stock Bubble Twice?
Most people assume that the S&P 500 Index will go up over long holding periods.
Fed’s Harker Says More Rate Cuts Are Coming But Timing Uncertain
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said officials are on track to lower interest rates this year, but the exact timing will depend on what happens with the economy.
Global Bond Selloff Leaves US Treasury Yields Flirting With 5%
The selloffs that keep flaring in the world’s bond markets are pushing yields toward key thresholds amid escalating worries about elevated inflation, tempestuous politics and swelling government debts.
Biden to Further Limit Nvidia AI Chip Exports in Final Push
President Joe Biden’s administration plans one additional round of restrictions on the export of artificial intelligence chips from the likes of Nvidia Corp. just days before leaving office, a final push in his effort to keep advanced technologies out of the hands of China and Russia.
High Hopes or Hollow Hype? A 2025 Reality Check
While the market has largely moved past that year’s recession debate, it’s worth noting that the traditional definition that persisted for all our careers—two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth—did occur in the first half of 2022.
2025 Year Ahead: Certainties for an Uncertain World
In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.
Global Macro Outlook: First Quarter 2025
The question for investors will be to what degree US outperformance will extend to the financial markets.
Pressing for Yet More
On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.
Our 10 Investing Themes for 2025
As we turn the page on 2024 and look ahead into 2025, the key question on investors' minds is: can 2024’s positive momentum in the economy and financial markets continue into 2025?
Keep These Investment Themes In Mind For 2025
For 2025 and beyond, a few particular global and industry trends can offer attractive long-term returns for advisors and investors alike.
ECB's Lagarde Faces a Make-or-Break 2025
Every central banker has a make-or-break moment. As the euro crisis raged in 2012, then-European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi took to describing the common currency as a “bumblebee”:
Privatize the USPS? Not in an Era of Crony Capitalism
President-elect Donald Trump is said to be interested in the privatization of the US Postal Service, a prospect that also appeals to his DOGE project and its allies in Congress.
Three Investment Lessons From 2024
Three interconnected lessons from 2024 help shape our 2025 outlook.
Economy Will Remain Supportive of Markets in 2025
The most important issue regarding what lies ahead from an economic perspective is that the economy’s fundamentals remain solid with very few misalignments that could derail it, at least for now.
Fourth Quarter 2024 Performance Commentary and Review
2024 was about as good as it gets in the equity markets – with the BGEP up 31% and the broader market as a whole posting double digit gains. Underneath the surface, we believe that there are three main drivers of the year’s solid returns. We discuss them below in our market review and outlook.
Biden’s Steel Move Is No Way to Treat an Ally
The most telling moment in the Biden Administration’s decision to block Nippon Steel Corp.’s attempted takeover of United States Steel Corp. was unintentional.
2025: A Year of Promise and Paybacks
The College Football playoffs included 12 teams this year and all five automatic berth teams (because they won their conference championships) are now out, including the top two ranked teams, Oregon and Georgia. It wasn’t supposed to turn out this way, and the debate about why has only just started.
AI Frenzy Drove the S&P 500’s Best Two-Year Gains Since the Dot-Com Era
Stocks rallied in 2024, delivering a second consecutive year of gains exceeding 20%, as investors embraced cooling inflation, falling interest rates and the prospect of lower corporate taxes under a second Trump administration.
A Controversial Start
Most people don’t pay much attention to the political process, either local or federal. This year I think it is something we should all be paying attention to as it might affect our various lives.
Gold Investors Stay Bullish for 2025 on Trump Volatility
Money managers are seeing plenty of reasons to remain bullish on gold, following a stellar 2024 that saw the precious metal post its biggest annual gain since 2010.
The UK Can Find Its Place in Trump’s America
What happens in the US economy doesn’t always stay there, particularly when it comes to the UK.
Three Ways the Fed's Message Falls Short — and How to Fix Them
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the central bank’s communication will be part of its 2025 monetary policy review.
European Fixed-Income Outlook 2025: Adversity, Uncertainty, Opportunity
European bond markets are climbing a mountain of worry. Despite the risks, history suggests a positive outcome.
How Trump Can Achieve Sustained 3% GDP Growth
The incoming Trump administration has set a goal of growing the economy by 3% per year, similar to promises made during Donald Trump’s first term in office.
Random Thoughts
To clear our notebooks entering 2025, here are quick perspectives on a range of topics.
Equity Outlook: Preparing for Profound Policy-Driven Change
Political uncertainty and volatility create fertile ground for active investors to find companies that can successfully navigate a new era.
Tech Investing in 2025: Emerging Trends and Market Opportunities
Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.
2025 Investing Outlook
The year ahead may present challenges as markets and the economy look to maintain momentum.
AI Market Leaders: How Equity Performance Is Evolving among AI Innovators
The AI market has evolved significantly in the past two years, shifting from a heavy reliance on mega-cap and semiconductor dominance to a more diverse set of beneficiaries.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Tough End to 2024
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. The latest reading was above the forecasted reading of 48.3.
Fast-Money Quants Saw Big Year Go Bust in Wild Cross-Asset Ride
Quant funds that make money surfing the momentum of markets saw a promising year slip away in 2024 when big bouts of volatility lashed everything from Japanese stocks to cocoa futures and Treasuries.
Biden Blocks Nippon Steel’s $14.1 Billion Takeover of US Steel
President Joe Biden has blocked the $14.1 billion sale of United States Steel Corp. to Nippon Steel Corp., killing a high-profile deal that sparked a political firestorm and tensions between the US and Japan.
Fixed-Income Outlook 2025: Fertile Ground
Continued volatility, falling yields, and other expectations for the year ahead, plus seven strategies to take advantage.
S&P 500 Records Its Second Straight Year of 20%-Plus Gains
December's market activity highlights the need for caution in the near term.
A ‘Made in China’ Crisis Awaits Big Auto
When Jaguar’s “copy nothing” brand reboot hit late last year, one self-styled car enthusiast replied on X: “What the actual hell is this.” Jaguar’s response: “The future.”
Regulation, Deals and Crypto: Fintech Themes to Watch in 2025
The clouds that hung over the financial-technology industry in 2024 appear to be clearing as interest-rate cuts, recoveries in fintech stocks and promises of a looser regulatory environment in the second Trump administration paint a more promising outlook for startups.
Stock Bears Are Going Extinct. Time to Worry?
It’s that time of year when Wall Street soothsayers look ahead 12 months and try to divine the path of US stocks.
Where the Smart Climate Tech Venture Money Is Going in 2025
This year is shaping up to be a dramatic one for climate tech investors.