As gold heads toward its worst annual loss in more than a decade, investors are gauging the odds a political shift in the US will restore the precious metal’s haven allure.
Infrastructure has long been valued for its defensive characteristics, income potential and ability to protect against inflation. Essential assets such as electricity networks, pipelines, railways, airports and toll roads typically benefit from high barriers to entry and predictable revenues.
Chuck Carnevale analyzes seven stocks using FAST Graphs, showing how earnings, cash flow, and valuation charts reveal the business behind the stock price—and why a popular stock is not always an attractive investment.
The Fed held rates steady at its October meeting but kept the door open to further tightening, with two dissenting votes and hawkish rhetoric signaling that the pause is a skip, not a stop.
The economy appears to be settling into a new equilibrium. Economic growth has moderated to a sustainable pace. While inflation has picked up over the last few months, there does not seem to be a fundamental shift in the underlying trend.
Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon details why recent volatility looks like the typical pattern of a US small-cap leadership cycle.
After overshooting projections for years, AI capex is slowing down. The shift doesn’t spell the end of the AI trade but a move to a more mature, predictable cycle that favors higher-quality borrowers.
Wall Street’s recent risk aversion toward stocks may have created an opening for a sharp rebound, particularly in technology shares, if Anthropic PBC’s planned initial public offering reignites enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.
The credit market had become more discerning. Companies with greater leverage, more uncertain cash flows, or business models requiring enormous amounts of capital appeared to be more scrutinized.
Join industry experts from CoinShares for an educational webcast exploring the future landscape of bitcoin mining enterprises.
Economic data that continued to show a strong U.S. economy, housing aside, took a back seat this week as investors once again focused on potential risks to future growth: rising energy prices, sticky inflation, and most importantly, questions about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
US midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 3. Currently, the Republican party is in control of the House and the Senate. This vote will essentially be a referendum on the Republican party’s body of work. It’s likely the composition of either the House or the Senate will change.
Rick Polsinello, Christian Galipeau Discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The next two weeks bring an unusually crowded lineup of potential market-moving catalysts, including a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting, the busiest stretch of third-quarter 2026 earnings season, the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement and the midterm elections.
We have been arguing that the reset higher in yields has restored the dual role of bonds in multi-asset portfolios: providing attractive income while once again offering the potential for meaningful risk mitigation. This month’s tech market turbulence has provided a clear example: As equities came under pressure, U.S. Treasury yields fell amid a flight to safety, allowing duration to behave like a diversifier again.
The bond market is flashing levels not seen in nearly two decades. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5%, while real yields — measured by Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) — are at their highest since before the 2008 financial crisis.
Last year, U.S. charitable giving hit a record $617.20 billion, according to Giving USA. That’s the first time it’s ever topped $600 billion. Individuals gave $394.2 billion of that, foundations gave $117.15 billion, bequests added $62.19 billion and corporations contributed $43.67 billion.
Insurance-licensed RIAs grew fastest as fee-only firms’ asset share fell to 34%, though fiduciary clients report higher satisfaction.
At its core, a carry trade is simply borrowing where money is relatively cheap (Japan) and investing where the expected return is higher (U.S.). This strategy captures the difference in interest rates, but it also exposes investors to changes in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates.
With several provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) taking effect in 2026, year-end planning may present new opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. It’s important to assess personal finances before the end of the year to determine if action is needed.
There’s not a lot of bullishness in the silver market right now. After surging to just over $120 per ounce in January, silver corrected and has lost more than half its value.
VettaFi has been recognized as the Best U.S. Index Overall Provider at the ETF Express U.S. ETF Awards 2026, building on a standout year of index innovation, strategic acquisitions, and product milestone growth across the ETP landscape.
This marked the first major deal of its kind and became a blueprint for chip-backed debt that, three years on, is on track to become a trillion-dollar market, eclipsing even the borrowings used to build the data centers housing the chips.
Emerging markets continued to deliver strong year-to-date returns in 2026, although the third quarter served as a reminder that the path higher is rarely linear. After a powerful first-half rally led by artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors and other growth-oriented sectors, markets experienced a broad correction in July before stabilizing through the remainder of the quarter.
Stock prices reflect the decisions of buyers and sellers, whose expectations can shift quickly. Enthusiasm, fear, and uncertainty can push a stock above or below a reasonable valuation—and keep it there for an uncomfortable stretch of time.
A broad retreat in technology shares set the tone for the week. The S&P 500 fell 1.9 per cent and the NASDAQ dropped 4.5 per cent, while the Dow rose 0.7 per cent as investors rotated out of tech and into more defensive sectors.
The Magnificent Seven have dominated the technology trade, but investor attention is now shifting toward the MANGOS — a group of companies that place greater emphasis on artificial intelligence (AI) rather than traditional megacap technology.
For many bond investors, 2026 has stirred up uncomfortable memories of 2022. Yields have climbed sharply as bond prices have come under pressure and the Federal Reserve has raised its policy interest rate target.
Markets look calm on the surface, but AI-driven shifts in capital allocation, earnings quality, and funding needs are reshaping risks and opportunities beneath the index level.
Higher bond yields may offer retirees more income potential, but a diversified approach that balances income, risk, and spending needs remains important.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policy-setting group within the U.S. Federal Reserve, meets on 27–28 October to discuss the economic outlook and appropriate monetary policy. We expect the FOMC to hold the policy rate at 3.75%–4.0% while keeping a clear tightening bias.
Lockheed Martin Corp. lifted its full-year outlook as the company’s missile systems portfolio was buoyed by rising global defense spending.
It’s become one of the most reliable trades in the stock market as sentiment toward artificial intelligence swings wildly: Whatever AI stocks do, Apple Inc. does the opposite.
Investors are beginning to turn cautious on biotechnology stocks as a rapid rise in Treasury yields dents the appeal for shares of companies that are often viewed as risky all-or-nothing bets on breakthrough medical treatments.
Meta Platforms Inc. leads the tech pack this week, reporting its third-quarter earnings a week ahead of most of its peers. Take that as a sign of confidence, perhaps.
After years when yield was scarce and investors were pushed further out on the risk spectrum, income is investable again. High-quality bonds can once more provide meaningful cash flow, portfolio stability and a credible path to total return without requiring an aggressive call on interest rates or credit.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year asset class forecast for 3Q 2026.
Last week saw a further deterioration in the inflation outlook, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears increasingly reluctant to tighten again immediately. The September headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% month/month (m/m) and 3.7% year/year (y/y), while core inflation increased 0.3% m/m and accelerated to 2.6% y/y from 2.4%.
The new policy regime the Fed has lost touch with the economy. It has eradicated a lot of market feedback by eliminating banks from trading federal funds. It has separated interest rates from money supply growth.
The ETF industry has officially shattered last year’s record for annual product launches. A total of 1,159 new exchange-traded products have debuted year-to-date, eclipsing the full-year record of 1,143 funds set in 2025. With more than two months remaining in the year, the rapid pace highlights issuers’ relentless push to bring innovative strategies to market.
Being able to recognize one’s blind spots and knowing when to bring in another financial professional can be just as impactful. Identifying where those boundaries exist can help advisors continue to excel in their area of expertise while helping clients build financial plans that strengthen their future.
JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market assumptions for the first time, forecasting returns that could beat stocks, bonds and gold in a milestone for its Wall Street acceptance.
Last week’s surprisingly bad inflation figures pose a dilemma for the Federal Reserve. In recent speeches and interviews, Fed officials suggested they were in no hurry to raise interest rates again and that a pause might be appropriate. But holding the rate now looks harder to justify.
A week filled with hotter inflation readings brought growing concerns about the sustainability of the pace of AI spending. Despite rising inflation, bond yields ended the week lower. While the S&P 500 Index of large-cap stocks fell 1.95 percent for the week, the decline was largely driven by its heavy weighting to technology stocks, which faltered by 6.37 percent.
Predicting the direction of interest rates is challenging enough when economic conditions are relatively stable. Add persistent inflation, a resilient economy, a cooling labor market, geopolitical uncertainty, and an expanding supply of Treasury debt, and the challenge becomes considerably greater.
Earnings now have become the central market focus this week. Bank results have been somewhat mixed, and the market will need confirmation that profits outside the largest technology companies are strengthening. I still do not believe the overall equity market is excessively valued, but investors should expect continued volatility between growth and value as expectations for AI spending shift.
Fed rate hikes could climb further than markets expect, according to T. Rowe Price Capital Markets Strategist Tim Murray.
The US Treasury market is entering a new era. Financing government debt is becoming less about capital availability and more about the yield required to attract it.
A full pantry feels safe. A full balance sheet can too. But abundance and preparedness aren't the same thing. Instead of adding something new, financial advisors should consider digging into a portfolio and pulling everything off the shelf for examination, with the intent of fully understanding what’s already in there.
The S&P 500 Index rose, erasing its early-session losses, as big banks and healthcare companies climbed. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index rebounded to a slight gain after South Korean neocloud company Elice Inc. tanked in its trading debut, spurring concern about the sustainability of the global AI boom that continued to weigh on the sector.
High-grade investors, including T. Rowe Price Associates Inc. and Invesco, are looking at dipping into the least risky corner of junk debt after a broader selloff pushed valuations lower.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Fear of missing out has driven data-center developers to build as much computing capacity as possible, as swiftly as they can. But investors funding the projects are getting nervous. They’re suddenly worrying that spending on artificial-intelligence services won’t be enough to justify the trillions of dollars backing the buildout.
On July 24, China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration announced that putting assets into an offshore trust, and earning income through one, are taxable events. The rate is 20%, and it applies not just when assets go in but also when they earn income and when the trust is wound down.
Fall is officially underway, heralding a season of change — and what a difference three months makes. The past quarter brought a dramatic Federal Reserve policy pivot and notable shifts in market sentiment and ETF trends. But within equities, the most striking reversal occurred inside the AI trade itself.
S&P 500 investors have doubled their bets on the top 10 stocks, so their performance is twice as dependent on those 10 stocks. Is that a good bet? Who knows, but it is a large bet. Time will tell.
Chips stocks and troubled artificial-intelligence bellwether CoreWeave Inc. are rising, helping stocks rebound after the worst week for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index since the tariff turmoil of April 2025.
As we enter the final quarter of 2026, the investment backdrop remains constructive but increasingly differentiated. Economic growth and corporate earnings have remained resilient, while continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and other productivity-enhancing technologies has supported capital spending and market sentiment.
Today, we are going to look at some of the cracks which are becoming visible in the AI space. It will change the nature of index investing, the economy and portfolio management for the next decade. And generally, not in a good way as far as current AI investors are concerned.
Big bank earnings offered little to alter the dimming views on the sector mired in the longest losing streak since the financial crisis. The bright spot: equities trading.
With Brent crude above $100 a barrel for most of the past month and diesel prices more than twice as high, you might imagine that the world’s poorest fossil fuel importers would be hitting crisis conditions right now.
In the AI-led markets of recent years, companies with distant profit potential have been favored. But higher interest rates could change the equation and create a new advantage for value stocks, whose businesses tend to have more visible cash flows in the shorter term.
An income projection can provide an important starting point for year-end tax planning. Explore key 2026 tax brackets and income thresholds that may help inform planning decisions before year-end.
US Treasuries led a global bond rally as a selloff in artificial-intelligence shares deepened, spurring demand for haven assets.
Leaders at advisor firms generally see two paths for using artificial intelligence tools: broaden capacity downmarket through efficiency, or swim upstream through excellence. It’s fair to say our industry has done a better job with the efficiency part of the equation.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. has updated its approach to financing the energy transition, in a move the biggest US bank says will help it meet a historic surge in demand while also supporting affordability and security.
Global income strategies offer a compelling value proposition for investors: a steady stream of income generated from dividend-paying equities, government bonds and structured instruments like equity-linked notes (ELNs) from around the world.
Small-capitalization stocks may now provide greater diversification and less valuation risk than many of the market’s largest blue-chip companies. Moreover, it appears to us that this is just the beginning stages of a change in leadership, and it is possible small-capitalization stocks could outperform large stocks for the next few years.
Our Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Sustainable Investing, Kris Nelson, sees markets balancing several competing forces this week, from renewed oil-price volatility to softer labor data and increasingly demanding expectations around AI earnings.
Taylor Topousis and Christian Galipeau discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Earlier last week, a supertanker loading crude in the Gulf of Oman was fixed at $1.01 million a day for a voyage to Asia, with another deal reportedly agreed at $1.16 million.
While a gold ETF is a convenient way to play gold's price, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold, especially when it sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.
Western Asset’s Ion Dan explains why he thinks the fundamental case for agency mortgage-backed securities has strengthened.
US Treasury yields have moved sharply higher, with the 10-year yield rising roughly 45 basis points over the past month to about 5.25%. That has understandably revived concerns about what higher bond yields could mean for equities.
Emerging markets (EMs) have historically been associated with commodity exports and low-cost manufacturing. Those characteristics remain relevant in parts of the investable universe, but the sources of competitive advantage have broadened materially.
Wall Street’s biggest banks are expected to unveil a quarterly stock-trading haul of nearly $19 billion when the firms report earnings next week.
ClearBridge Investments: With the economy still resilient, a gradual Federal Reserve hiking cycle could help broaden market leadership beyond the Magnificent Seven.
Interest rates are on the rise, and, according to market expectations, the ascension may not be over quite yet.
Stocks chopped this summer as high hopes for AI product and infrastructure development were offset by rising inflation and an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve.
AI's labor-market impact remains limited but uneven, as productivity and profits outpace hiring and import-heavy investment dampens U.S. job growth.
Rising interest rates can affect more than investment portfolios. Explore how changing IRS interest rates may influence several estate, charitable and tax-planning strategies.
As globalization recedes, governments and businesses have stronger incentives to invest in building more resilient societies and supply chains. That imperative has coincided with the emergence of artificial intelligence, creating a powerful interaction between technological innovation and economic security.
Market participants have been conditioned to expect clear Forward Guidance from Fed Chairs and Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jay Powell provided it continuously, especially after the Financial Crisis. Chairman Warsh has made it clear that Forward Guidance will be less under his leadership, but he has offered a very important qualifier that many have yet to grasp.
In this month’s issue, AI, energy and robotics are creating new opportunities in emerging markets, but selectivity remains key as policy, cost and execution risks evolve.
We understand that you can’t forecast the sequence of returns, but we CAN build a plan that survives a bad one. As Howard Marks puts it, you can’t predict, but you can prepare. These are the rules of engagement once you’ve crossed from saving into spending.
If you only looked at the price of gold in September, you’d be forgiven for believing the bull market had run out of steam. The yellow metal fell 6.3% during the month, and some in the financial press were quick to say it had failed as a safe haven.
Nvidia Corp. is on the verge of becoming the first company with a $6 trillion market capitalization as investors rotate back into the artificial-intelligence chipmaker after a disappointing start to the year.
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%.
Executives enter the earnings season with a bit of a swagger. They won't say it out loud, of course, but consider all the headwinds CEOs of companies big and small have faced in the last few years. First, it was imminent recession fears; then it was looming tariffs (followed by the shock of April 2025).
The Fed’s latest 25 basis point hike might represent a recalibration rather than tightening. Instead of focusing on the next hike, investors should watch broader financial conditions and the long-term trajectory for interest rates.
Sustainable Investing
Gold Investors Rocked by Wipeout, Seek Firmer Footing After Vote
As gold heads toward its worst annual loss in more than a decade, investors are gauging the odds a political shift in the US will restore the precious metal’s haven allure.
Infrastructure’s Essential Assets Have Expanding Ambitions
Infrastructure has long been valued for its defensive characteristics, income potential and ability to protect against inflation. Essential assets such as electricity networks, pipelines, railways, airports and toll roads typically benefit from high barriers to entry and predictable revenues.
7 Hot Stocks: The Picture Worth a Thousand Spreadsheets
Chuck Carnevale analyzes seven stocks using FAST Graphs, showing how earnings, cash flow, and valuation charts reveal the business behind the stock price—and why a popular stock is not always an attractive investment.
October FOMC Recap—No Hike But Hawk Talk Persists
The Fed held rates steady at its October meeting but kept the door open to further tightening, with two dissenting votes and hawkish rhetoric signaling that the pause is a skip, not a stop.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly
The economy appears to be settling into a new equilibrium. Economic growth has moderated to a sustainable pace. While inflation has picked up over the last few months, there does not seem to be a fundamental shift in the underlying trend.
The US Small-Cap Bull Market: A Correction, Not a Conclusion
Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon details why recent volatility looks like the typical pattern of a US small-cap leadership cycle.
The AI Soft Landing Scenario
After overshooting projections for years, AI capex is slowing down. The shift doesn’t spell the end of the AI trade but a move to a more mature, predictable cycle that favors higher-quality borrowers.
Anthropic IPO May Spark AI Rally as Short Bets on Tech Pile Up
Wall Street’s recent risk aversion toward stocks may have created an opening for a sharp rebound, particularly in technology shares, if Anthropic PBC’s planned initial public offering reignites enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.
Bonds, AI, and a Bull Market That Has Kept Going
The credit market had become more discerning. Companies with greater leverage, more uncertain cash flows, or business models requiring enormous amounts of capital appeared to be more scrutinized.
Mining’s new math: Power, compute, and sustainability
Join industry experts from CoinShares for an educational webcast exploring the future landscape of bitcoin mining enterprises.
Strong Economic Data Meets Rising AI Concerns
Economic data that continued to show a strong U.S. economy, housing aside, took a back seat this week as investors once again focused on potential risks to future growth: rising energy prices, sticky inflation, and most importantly, questions about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
The Midterm Market Effect
US midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 3. Currently, the Republican party is in control of the House and the Senate. This vote will essentially be a referendum on the Republican party’s body of work. It’s likely the composition of either the House or the Senate will change.
AI Wobbles. Treasuries Step Up.
Rick Polsinello, Christian Galipeau Discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Key Catalysts for Markets in the Weeks Ahead
The next two weeks bring an unusually crowded lineup of potential market-moving catalysts, including a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting, the busiest stretch of third-quarter 2026 earnings season, the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement and the midterm elections.
The Other Side of Higher Yields
We have been arguing that the reset higher in yields has restored the dual role of bonds in multi-asset portfolios: providing attractive income while once again offering the potential for meaningful risk mitigation. This month’s tech market turbulence has provided a clear example: As equities came under pressure, U.S. Treasury yields fell amid a flight to safety, allowing duration to behave like a diversifier again.
Time to Extend Bond ETF Duration?
The bond market is flashing levels not seen in nearly two decades. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5%, while real yields — measured by Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) — are at their highest since before the 2008 financial crisis.
AI Is Proving Yet Again That Americans Are the Most Generous People on Earth
Last year, U.S. charitable giving hit a record $617.20 billion, according to Giving USA. That’s the first time it’s ever topped $600 billion. Individuals gave $394.2 billion of that, foundations gave $117.15 billion, bequests added $62.19 billion and corporations contributed $43.67 billion.
Hybrid RIAs Outpace Fee-Only Fiduciary Firms, Cerulli Finds
Insurance-licensed RIAs grew fastest as fee-only firms’ asset share fell to 34%, though fiduciary clients report higher satisfaction.
A Crowded Exit? A Discussion on the Yen Carry Trade
At its core, a carry trade is simply borrowing where money is relatively cheap (Japan) and investing where the expected return is higher (U.S.). This strategy captures the difference in interest rates, but it also exposes investors to changes in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates.
A Checklist May Help Taxpayers Navigate Year-End Planning
With several provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) taking effect in 2026, year-end planning may present new opportunities and considerations for taxpayers. It’s important to assess personal finances before the end of the year to determine if action is needed.
The Bull Market Isn't Over: Silver Setting Up for Next Leg Higher
There’s not a lot of bullishness in the silver market right now. After surging to just over $120 per ounce in January, silver corrected and has lost more than half its value.
VettaFi Named Best U.S. Index Overall Provider at 2026 ETF Express Awards
VettaFi has been recognized as the Best U.S. Index Overall Provider at the ETF Express U.S. ETF Awards 2026, building on a standout year of index innovation, strategic acquisitions, and product milestone growth across the ETP landscape.
Blackstone Bet on Chips Drove a Debt Boom That’s Upending Credit
This marked the first major deal of its kind and became a blueprint for chip-backed debt that, three years on, is on track to become a trillion-dollar market, eclipsing even the borrowings used to build the data centers housing the chips.
Q3 2026 CIO Review and Outlook
Emerging markets continued to deliver strong year-to-date returns in 2026, although the third quarter served as a reminder that the path higher is rarely linear. After a powerful first-half rally led by artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors and other growth-oriented sectors, markets experienced a broad correction in July before stabilizing through the remainder of the quarter.
Why Stock Prices Eventually Follow Earnings—Not the Crowd
Stock prices reflect the decisions of buyers and sellers, whose expectations can shift quickly. Enthusiasm, fear, and uncertainty can push a stock above or below a reasonable valuation—and keep it there for an uncomfortable stretch of time.
Renewed AI Capex Concerns Spark Rotation Out of Tech
A broad retreat in technology shares set the tone for the week. The S&P 500 fell 1.9 per cent and the NASDAQ dropped 4.5 per cent, while the Dow rose 0.7 per cent as investors rotated out of tech and into more defensive sectors.
MANGOS ETFs: The Fruits of AI Innovation
The Magnificent Seven have dominated the technology trade, but investor attention is now shifting toward the MANGOS — a group of companies that place greater emphasis on artificial intelligence (AI) rather than traditional megacap technology.
How 2026 May Set the Table for Stronger Bond Returns
For many bond investors, 2026 has stirred up uncomfortable memories of 2022. Yields have climbed sharply as bond prices have come under pressure and the Federal Reserve has raised its policy interest rate target.
Calm on the Surface, Steady as She Goes?
Markets look calm on the surface, but AI-driven shifts in capital allocation, earnings quality, and funding needs are reshaping risks and opportunities beneath the index level.
What Do Higher Yields Mean for Retirement Income?
Higher bond yields may offer retirees more income potential, but a diversified approach that balances income, risk, and spending needs remains important.
October Fed Meeting Preview: A Pause Is Still a Recalibration
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policy-setting group within the U.S. Federal Reserve, meets on 27–28 October to discuss the economic outlook and appropriate monetary policy. We expect the FOMC to hold the policy rate at 3.75%–4.0% while keeping a clear tightening bias.
Lockheed Martin Raises Outlook on Robust Demand for Missiles
Lockheed Martin Corp. lifted its full-year outlook as the company’s missile systems portfolio was buoyed by rising global defense spending.
Apple Is Wall Street’s Favorite AI Haven as Spending Fears Hit
It’s become one of the most reliable trades in the stock market as sentiment toward artificial intelligence swings wildly: Whatever AI stocks do, Apple Inc. does the opposite.
All-or-Nothing Biotech Bets Dented by Rising Treasury Yields
Investors are beginning to turn cautious on biotechnology stocks as a rapid rise in Treasury yields dents the appeal for shares of companies that are often viewed as risky all-or-nothing bets on breakthrough medical treatments.
Meta Investors Are Looking to Zuckerberg for the Muse Payoff
Meta Platforms Inc. leads the tech pack this week, reporting its third-quarter earnings a week ahead of most of its peers. Take that as a sign of confidence, perhaps.
The Return of Income: Bonds Reclaim Their Role
After years when yield was scarce and investors were pushed further out on the risk spectrum, income is investable again. High-quality bonds can once more provide meaningful cash flow, portfolio stability and a credible path to total return without requiring an aggressive call on interest rates or credit.
GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecast: 3Q 2026
GMO has posted a new 7-Year asset class forecast for 3Q 2026.
Resilient Growth, Sticky Inflation
Last week saw a further deterioration in the inflation outlook, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears increasingly reluctant to tighten again immediately. The September headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% month/month (m/m) and 3.7% year/year (y/y), while core inflation increased 0.3% m/m and accelerated to 2.6% y/y from 2.4%.
Friedman vs Woodford
The new policy regime the Fed has lost touch with the economy. It has eradicated a lot of market feedback by eliminating banks from trading federal funds. It has separated interest rates from money supply growth.
ETF Launches Surpass Last Year’s Record With Months to Spare
The ETF industry has officially shattered last year’s record for annual product launches. A total of 1,159 new exchange-traded products have debuted year-to-date, eclipsing the full-year record of 1,143 funds set in 2025. With more than two months remaining in the year, the rapid pace highlights issuers’ relentless push to bring innovative strategies to market.
Understanding Your Limits Can Make You a Better Financial Advisor
Being able to recognize one’s blind spots and knowing when to bring in another financial professional can be just as impactful. Identifying where those boundaries exist can help advisors continue to excel in their area of expertise while helping clients build financial plans that strengthen their future.
JPMorgan Asset Sees Bitcoin Beating Stocks, But With a Catch
JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market assumptions for the first time, forecasting returns that could beat stocks, bonds and gold in a milestone for its Wall Street acceptance.
Sticky Inflation Is Testing the Fed’s Resolve
Last week’s surprisingly bad inflation figures pose a dilemma for the Federal Reserve. In recent speeches and interviews, Fed officials suggested they were in no hurry to raise interest rates again and that a pause might be appropriate. But holding the rate now looks harder to justify.
Higher Rates Put the AI Buildout to the Test
A week filled with hotter inflation readings brought growing concerns about the sustainability of the pace of AI spending. Despite rising inflation, bond yields ended the week lower. While the S&P 500 Index of large-cap stocks fell 1.95 percent for the week, the decline was largely driven by its heavy weighting to technology stocks, which faltered by 6.37 percent.
Forecasting Interest Rates - Investment Objectives
Predicting the direction of interest rates is challenging enough when economic conditions are relatively stable. Add persistent inflation, a resilient economy, a cooling labor market, geopolitical uncertainty, and an expanding supply of Treasury debt, and the challenge becomes considerably greater.
AI Buildout Drives Yields and Market Rotation
Earnings now have become the central market focus this week. Bank results have been somewhat mixed, and the market will need confirmation that profits outside the largest technology companies are strengthening. I still do not believe the overall equity market is excessively valued, but investors should expect continued volatility between growth and value as expectations for AI spending shift.
Fed Hiking Cycle May Run Longer Than Markets Expect
Fed rate hikes could climb further than markets expect, according to T. Rowe Price Capital Markets Strategist Tim Murray.
US Treasuries: A Market in Transition
The US Treasury market is entering a new era. Financing government debt is becoming less about capital availability and more about the yield required to attract it.
What’s Expired in Your Client’s Financial Pantry?
A full pantry feels safe. A full balance sheet can too. But abundance and preparedness aren't the same thing. Instead of adding something new, financial advisors should consider digging into a portfolio and pulling everything off the shelf for examination, with the intent of fully understanding what’s already in there.
S&P 500 Rebounds as Big Bank Stocks Climb, SpaceX Results Loom
The S&P 500 Index rose, erasing its early-session losses, as big banks and healthcare companies climbed. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index rebounded to a slight gain after South Korean neocloud company Elice Inc. tanked in its trading debut, spurring concern about the sustainability of the global AI boom that continued to weigh on the sector.
Top-Rated Junk Debt Becomes Sweet Spot as Investors Flee Risk
High-grade investors, including T. Rowe Price Associates Inc. and Invesco, are looking at dipping into the least risky corner of junk debt after a broader selloff pushed valuations lower.
Hot Inflation. Cold Chips. Stay Diversified.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The AI Buildout Is Nearing Its Existential Phase
Fear of missing out has driven data-center developers to build as much computing capacity as possible, as swiftly as they can. But investors funding the projects are getting nervous. They’re suddenly worrying that spending on artificial-intelligence services won’t be enough to justify the trillions of dollars backing the buildout.
Wealth Taxes Are Driving Money Out of China and California
On July 24, China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration announced that putting assets into an offshore trust, and earning income through one, are taxable events. The rate is 20%, and it applies not just when assets go in but also when they earn income and when the trust is wound down.
AI’s Great Rotation: When Users Beat Builders
Fall is officially underway, heralding a season of change — and what a difference three months makes. The past quarter brought a dramatic Federal Reserve policy pivot and notable shifts in market sentiment and ETF trends. But within equities, the most striking reversal occurred inside the AI trade itself.
The Room at the Top of the S&P 500 Has Become Twice as Crowded
S&P 500 investors have doubled their bets on the top 10 stocks, so their performance is twice as dependent on those 10 stocks. Is that a good bet? Who knows, but it is a large bet. Time will tell.
US Stocks Climb as Chips Rebound After Rout; CoreWeave Gains
Chips stocks and troubled artificial-intelligence bellwether CoreWeave Inc. are rising, helping stocks rebound after the worst week for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index since the tariff turmoil of April 2025.
Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2026
As we enter the final quarter of 2026, the investment backdrop remains constructive but increasingly differentiated. Economic growth and corporate earnings have remained resilient, while continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and other productivity-enhancing technologies has supported capital spending and market sentiment.
When Will AI Meet Cash Flow Reality?
Today, we are going to look at some of the cracks which are becoming visible in the AI space. It will change the nature of index investing, the economy and portfolio management for the next decade. And generally, not in a good way as far as current AI investors are concerned.
Equity Trading Gives Banks a Bright Spot This Earnings Season
Big bank earnings offered little to alter the dimming views on the sector mired in the longest losing streak since the financial crisis. The bright spot: equities trading.
Fossil Fuels Are Winning the Battle for Easy Money
With Brent crude above $100 a barrel for most of the past month and diesel prices more than twice as high, you might imagine that the world’s poorest fossil fuel importers would be hitting crisis conditions right now.
Have Rate Hikes Tipped the Scales Toward Value Equities?
In the AI-led markets of recent years, companies with distant profit potential have been favored. But higher interest rates could change the equation and create a new advantage for value stocks, whose businesses tend to have more visible cash flows in the shorter term.
Year-End Planning Begins With Projecting Income
An income projection can provide an important starting point for year-end tax planning. Explore key 2026 tax brackets and income thresholds that may help inform planning decisions before year-end.
Treasury Haven Trade Bounces Back as Technology Stocks Slump
US Treasuries led a global bond rally as a selloff in artificial-intelligence shares deepened, spurring demand for haven assets.
AI Made Your Service Faster, but How Do You Get to “Better”?
Leaders at advisor firms generally see two paths for using artificial intelligence tools: broaden capacity downmarket through efficiency, or swim upstream through excellence. It’s fair to say our industry has done a better job with the efficiency part of the equation.
JPMorgan Adjusts Sustainable-Finance Strategy to Meet Historic Energy Demand
JPMorgan Chase & Co. has updated its approach to financing the energy transition, in a move the biggest US bank says will help it meet a historic surge in demand while also supporting affordability and security.
The Case for Global Income
Global income strategies offer a compelling value proposition for investors: a steady stream of income generated from dividend-paying equities, government bonds and structured instruments like equity-linked notes (ELNs) from around the world.
Buy Small-Capitalization Stocks for Safety, Outperformance in the Coming Years
Small-capitalization stocks may now provide greater diversification and less valuation risk than many of the market’s largest blue-chip companies. Moreover, it appears to us that this is just the beginning stages of a change in leadership, and it is possible small-capitalization stocks could outperform large stocks for the next few years.
Investors Need Convincing Despite Cooling Jobs and Strong AI Earnings
Our Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Sustainable Investing, Kris Nelson, sees markets balancing several competing forces this week, from renewed oil-price volatility to softer labor data and increasingly demanding expectations around AI earnings.
The Bar Is High—Can Earnings Clear It Again?
Taylor Topousis and Christian Galipeau discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Oil Tanker Rates Top $1 Million a Day as Shipping Profits Soar
Earlier last week, a supertanker loading crude in the Gulf of Oman was fixed at $1.01 million a day for a voyage to Asia, with another deal reportedly agreed at $1.16 million.
Positive ETF Gold Flows Pushed Holdings to a New Record in September
While a gold ETF is a convenient way to play gold's price, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold, especially when it sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.
Agency MBS Offer a Compelling Current Opportunity for Reserve Managers
Western Asset’s Ion Dan explains why he thinks the fundamental case for agency mortgage-backed securities has strengthened.
Bond Market Blues—Real or Inflationary?
US Treasury yields have moved sharply higher, with the 10-year yield rising roughly 45 basis points over the past month to about 5.25%. That has understandably revived concerns about what higher bond yields could mean for equities.
From Scale to Innovation
Emerging markets (EMs) have historically been associated with commodity exports and low-cost manufacturing. Those characteristics remain relevant in parts of the investable universe, but the sources of competitive advantage have broadened materially.
Goldman Set to Lead Wall Street’s $19 Billion Stock-Trading Haul
Wall Street’s biggest banks are expected to unveil a quarterly stock-trading haul of nearly $19 billion when the firms report earnings next week.
Love at First Hike? It Could Be
ClearBridge Investments: With the economy still resilient, a gradual Federal Reserve hiking cycle could help broaden market leadership beyond the Magnificent Seven.
Beating Rising Rates With Equity ETFs Designed for the Task
Interest rates are on the rise, and, according to market expectations, the ascension may not be over quite yet.
Economic/Market Commentary: 6 Charts We’re Watching in Q4 2026
Stocks chopped this summer as high hopes for AI product and infrastructure development were offset by rising inflation and an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve.
Inside Job(s): AI's Labor Market Impact
AI's labor-market impact remains limited but uneven, as productivity and profits outpace hiring and import-heavy investment dampens U.S. job growth.
Rising Interest Rates: What They Mean for Wealth Planning
Rising interest rates can affect more than investment portfolios. Explore how changing IRS interest rates may influence several estate, charitable and tax-planning strategies.
Growth Holds, Risks Widen
As globalization recedes, governments and businesses have stronger incentives to invest in building more resilient societies and supply chains. That imperative has coincided with the emergence of artificial intelligence, creating a powerful interaction between technological innovation and economic security.
Behind the Shift Within the FOMC
Market participants have been conditioned to expect clear Forward Guidance from Fed Chairs and Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jay Powell provided it continuously, especially after the Financial Crisis. Chairman Warsh has made it clear that Forward Guidance will be less under his leadership, but he has offered a very important qualifier that many have yet to grasp.
AI, Energy and Robotics
In this month’s issue, AI, energy and robotics are creating new opportunities in emerging markets, but selectivity remains key as policy, cost and execution risks evolve.
Sequence Of Return Risk: The Math That Breaks Retirements
We understand that you can’t forecast the sequence of returns, but we CAN build a plan that survives a bad one. As Howard Marks puts it, you can’t predict, but you can prepare. These are the rules of engagement once you’ve crossed from saving into spending.
Gold Stumbled in September, but Gold Miners Beat Every Sector in the S&P 500
If you only looked at the price of gold in September, you’d be forgiven for believing the bull market had run out of steam. The yellow metal fell 6.3% during the month, and some in the financial press were quick to say it had failed as a safe haven.
Nvidia Soars Near $6 Trillion Market Cap With Stock Back at High
Nvidia Corp. is on the verge of becoming the first company with a $6 trillion market capitalization as investors rotate back into the artificial-intelligence chipmaker after a disappointing start to the year.
Will the Real Yield Please Stand Up?!
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%.
How AI, the Midterms, and Consumer Shifts Shape the Outlook
Executives enter the earnings season with a bit of a swagger. They won't say it out loud, of course, but consider all the headwinds CEOs of companies big and small have faced in the last few years. First, it was imminent recession fears; then it was looming tariffs (followed by the shock of April 2025).
Recalibrating Rates, Not Tightening Policy
The Fed’s latest 25 basis point hike might represent a recalibration rather than tightening. Instead of focusing on the next hike, investors should watch broader financial conditions and the long-term trajectory for interest rates.