Zehrid Osmani, Head of Global Long-Term Unconstrained at Martin Currie, discusses the recent positive earnings reports from large U.S. banks and explains why their firm has no plans to invest in the banking sector.
Investors have had a lot to contend with thus far in 2023. Moderating economic growth, persistent inflation, volatile interest rates, falling profits, stress in the banking sector, war in Ukraine, and the debt ceiling debate all combined to weigh on sentiment.
Let’s change the language for how we help employees make behavioral shifts.
We see the market’s focus returning to higher-for-longer rates and sticky inflation after a U.S. debt ceiling deal. We prefer an up-in-quality portfolio.
Lately, we discussed macro-related market issues such as the” A.I., chase,” but a technical review can help manage shorter-term risks. Currently, the debate is about the market rally from the October lows. Is it a resumption of the 2009 bull market trend or an extended bear market rally?
Portfolio Manager Alex Zarechnak identifies six key themes from the COVID years—some new, some familiar—to help anchor investors in today’s emerging markets.
The industry group Airlines for America predicts that approximately 257 million people will travel on U.S. commercial airlines this summer, representing a 9.5% increase from last year. That would also set a new record, as volumes are projected to surpass the summer 2019 levels by around 2 million passengers.
“Crisis” is an overused word. Actual crises are those rare times when we are on the knife edge of disaster. It’s not a crisis when a bank fails, or Congress can’t agree on a budget. Those are annoyances (unless it's your bank). While not good, they don’t spell immediate catastrophe.
The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates, the work from home trend, ESG distractions, increases in crime, etc., are having far reaching effects on our economy and investors.
Investors have been loading up on T-bills and money market funds this year, but according to our Total Return team, that is not a sustainable strategy as it exposes investors to both reinvestment risk and inflation while creating an asset/liability mismatch.
Inflation has proven sticky, even as growth weakens. Markets are realizing that policy rates are set to stay higher for longer. We like quality in stocks and bonds.
A debt ceiling deal is within sight.
Following OPEC’s surprise production cut in April that saw crude oil squeeze from $65 to $80 per barrel in a manner of days, hedge funds and the like have once again resumed selling on slowing growth and recession fears.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Some of the most common questions clients ask advisors revolve around retirement:
New research from Dimensional addresses these questions. The study found that investors who tilt towards size, value, and profitability in their equity allocation are likely to enter retirement with significantly more assets, sustain their retirement spending longer, and to leave behind larger bequests than with a standard, broad-market-index portfolio. Given the popularity of broad market indexing, the findings have implications for advisors. Joining us to talk about the research is Mathieu Pellerin.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
As other nations seek to become less dependent on the U.S. dollar, rumors of the greenback’s potential demise continue to swirl. Can the dollar remain king of the world’s reserve currency?
According to the company’s investor relations page on this REIT, Simon Property Trust (SPG) is a real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company.
Last week the VettaFi Voices gathered to reflect on a year at VettaFi under the firm’s new name. The team celebrated wins, and time spent together, and shared their favorite insights and highlights from a busy twelve months.
Although few nations have a debt ceiling similar to the U.S.', rising government debt levels are a widespread global risk that may lead to lower economic output and weaker growth.
The semiconductor cycle is dead, long live the super cycle!
War, inflation, rising rates, banking chaos, and recession are among the challenges facing markets. Investors must balance these shorter-term risks with the long-term return prospects of equities.
Host Nate Geraci is back from Inside ETFs. VettaFi’s Todd Rosenbluth offers his thoughts on Nate’s key takeaways, which cover some of the industry's hottest trends.
We prefer private to public credit long term on better return potential. It’s the mirror image in equity: We prefer public stocks as risks fade in the medium term.
Both domestic and external forces may limit China's growth prospects.
Here’s a quick guide to avoiding the trap of micromanagement and promoting productivity, innovation, and employee satisfaction.
A better retirement stress test would focus on the standard of living in retirement and how spending would need to change in times of market turmoil or heightened inflation.
Although attendance was down this year compared to last—mostly because Bitcoin’s price is still off its record high of approximately $69,000, set in November 2021—there was nevertheless an impressive turnout of investors of all ages, industry leaders, policymakers and more.
Despite economic uncertainty, we see compelling value in high-quality, liquid assets that we view as more resilient in the face of a potential recession.
The view by many is that sustainable investing is concessionary in that financial results are forgone in order to achieve sustainable outcomes. Our historical analysis shows that this assertion isn’t true and that unique ESG data can be predictors of company results.
Tencent Holdings Ltd. posted its fastest pace of revenue growth in more than a year but earnings missed estimates, reflecting an uneven internet sector recovery during China’s post-pandemic reopening.
Profit margins have remained elevated in the U.S. for a decade, and in a new white paper, GMO’s James Montier examines why that has been the case, ultimately finding the culprit in fiscal deficits.
What if I told you that future returns could approach zero? Such seems hard to believe, considering young investors piling back into the markets since the beginning of the year
Although affordability remains an obstacle, recent data offer reasons to be more constructive as broader conditions still appear supportive of home prices.
Economic moats, also called business moats, are competitive advantages that help a company maintain long-term profits and market share over competitors.
We think the U.S. debt limit showdown will spark renewed volatility in markets. That risk reinforces why we stay invested and cautious by going up in quality.
Technological progress in the last two centuries, and especially in the recent past, has been nothing short of amazing. So why are we so unhappy? Why aren’t we all rich?
The economy co-exists and interacts with broader society, including government. Public policies—and the political processes that determine them—can change the economy in deep and lasting ways. We may not like them, but we can’t ignore them.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs.
Corporate America, one of the few reliable purchasers of equities in this bear market, is retreating from its buying binge, fresh evidence that the Federal Reserve-induced slowdown is taking a toll on business sentiment.
As investor interest in ETFs that promote higher environmental, social, and governance standards fades, more issuers are shutting down these funds.
Economic reports and corporate data last week highlighted the cautious stance of corporations, contrasted against a resilient consumer, who continues to be propped up by strong demand in the labor market and increasing wages.
Financial cracks from rate hikes have led to jitters over commercial real estate. Yet granularity is key. We see opportunities in some U.S. industrial properties.
The biggest risk to a planner/client relationship lasting through the client’s lifetime can be the adult children the client has appointed to hold their power of attorney.
In the early 2020s, the stock market looked much like basketball used to: a big man’s game. As examples, money management firms like Vanguard and Blackrock lumbered to higher heights of assets while the passive firms swallowed more market share.
Economic fundamentals are lining up for a return of QE. Yes, inflation is still on the high side but falling so rapidly that at least some central banks will be willing to take action before inflation is back to 2%.
Over the last week, the market saw volatility pick up after approaching the upper end of what we believe is the near-term trading range.
Why Scope 3 emissions hide as much as they reveal, and what investors can do about it.
Direct indexing is an innovative investment strategy that can solve a variety of investor challenges. We discuss the five main benefits of incorporating direct indexing in a client’s portfolio.
The fiercest adversary of investing based on environmental, social and governance (ESG) is Aswath Damodaran. ESG is a failure, its advocates are to blame, and the concept should be retired, according to Damodaran.
How do you go from the theoretical to the practical? What AI tools can you use that will streamline and improve your processes?
Principal Financial Group® recently released the results of an extensive survey it conducted asking advisors and employers their expectations for the future of retirement. Among the key trends it identified were an aging workforce with evolving financial planning needs. At the other extreme, Gen Z workers are beginning their careers with investment and planning preferences that differ markedly from older generations. Other findings included the anticipated need for personalization, financial wellness monitoring and counseling, and better services for retirement planning.
China’s economy has turned the corner, and is on a path towards a gradual, domestic demand-driven recovery. Andy Rothman outlines the reasons why China’s recovery is likely to be sustainable.
Big Tech earnings next week will offer investors a dose of reality following this year’s impressive gains in the sector that were powered by hype over artificial intelligence.
The pace of failures has more than doubled in the $7 trillion exchange-traded fund industry so far this year, as volatile markets and fierce competition put pressure on issuers.
To kick off the beginning of 2023, there continues to be a bias we see in equity investor portfolios. These portfolios have many of the traits investors see at the endpoints of the economy like software, consumer products and computer chips.
Spotting trend changes is the key to economic forecasting. They don’t happen often. Most of the time, this year will be similar to last year. The pace varies but the overall trend continues… until it doesn’t.
It’s believed that to meet this goal, two out of every three passenger vehicles manufactured in the U.S. would need to be electric models.
What does a potential change in Federal Reserve policy mean for markets and the economy?
Despite recent headwinds, structural drivers underpinning China’s growth remain intact. Sectors that will benefit from the structural trends include healthcare, industrial automation, and domestic brands targeting increased spending by Chinese consumers.
Given market uncertainty and the risk of a US recession, is now the time for defensive stocks? Making a case for low-volatility, high-dividend equities with Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions’ Vaneet Chadha and Michael LaBella.
There are four critical reasons why the dollar will not lose its global reserve status anytime soon.
One thinks Tesla’s stock is a buy and headed back to $300; the other believes it’s a sell and will fall to $150.
Born of the Global Financial Crisis, additional tier-1 securities were designed to absorb bank losses in times of turbulence and maintain financial safety at no cost to taxpayers. Despite good intentions, we’ve found AT1s to be flawed instruments that are contingently junior to common equity in practice.
Sustainable investing continues to gain in popularity, with investors worldwide frequently attracted not only by ethical concerns but also by the lure of superior returns. Unfortunately, new research focused on global stocks showed that they did not get what they were sold.
Inflation regimes often coincide with changing political regimes and agendas, much of which stems from the rise of populism and fiscal dominance. As a result of decades of globalisation and rising wealth inequality, we may well be entering a new regime - one of higher inflation and higher inflation volatility.
Emerging Markets (EM) have faced a challenging environment over the past five years, due to a series of global shocks that have triggered elevated market volatility and led the MSCI EM equity benchmark to experience its most protracted drawdown in history.
Jarred by daily double-digit moves in Treasury yields, bond investors are bracing for at least another year of rocky trading, abandoning hopes that in 2023 the market would return to normality.
The risk of Japanese inflation getting out of control is not high.
The Silicon Valley Bank collapse may be an extreme event, but it gives us a preview at a 100x magnification of what other banks are facing.
This essay focuses discusses a February visit by Secretary of State Blinken to Astana, and the EU-Central Asian Economic Forum in May.
When Microsoft Corp. launched its $1 billion Climate Innovation Fund three years ago, it was the lone tech giant pledging serious money to tackle rising temperatures. The dangers facing the planet have since become more acute, and the fund has about $400 million left.
Recession indicators are ringing loudly.
Up until recently, crude oil inventories saw continued build after build, suggesting the real time supply and demand dynamics in the market have been tilted toward the bearish side of the ledger.
The investment landscape is pockmarked by intractable statistics that continue to impose strategic and psychological barriers to the short term potential of portfolio alpha.
What are the implications of the ongoing volatility in the banking sector, and what does it mean for markets in Europe and globally?
Congress is asking the Federal Reserve and other financial regulators what went wrong at Silicon Valley Bank and why they didn’t see it coming. In due course, they’ll admit some mistakes, draw some lessons and tweak some rules.
In this webinar, you will learn how to enlist ideal clients to share their experiences with you and your business, and how to translate that feedback into consistent, sustainable business opportunities.
A simple annuity can effectively replace bond holdings in a retirement plan that are earmarked to meet the lifetime spending goal. The question is why should a retiree hold any bonds in the portion of their asset base designed to cover ongoing retirement spending goals?
Should investors build their own portfolios of bonds, or buy shares of bond funds? Is there an economic difference or just one of appearance? Are directly held bonds safer because they mature, and you get your money back? How should one decide?
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
The importance of Biden’s veto to save the DOL rule was not about assessing ESG factors. It was about affirming the role of the fiduciary in investment advice.
The late great Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was often in dissent in key legal cases during his long career.
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
Fears of bank runs precipitating a broader financial crisis helped spark a surge in bullion buying this week.
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.
Sustainable Investing
Big U.S. Banks Had A Good Quarter. We Still Have No Plans to Invest in Them.
Zehrid Osmani, Head of Global Long-Term Unconstrained at Martin Currie, discusses the recent positive earnings reports from large U.S. banks and explains why their firm has no plans to invest in the banking sector.
Mid-Year Market Outlook
Investors have had a lot to contend with thus far in 2023. Moderating economic growth, persistent inflation, volatile interest rates, falling profits, stress in the banking sector, war in Ukraine, and the debt ceiling debate all combined to weigh on sentiment.
Train Dogs – Not Employees
Let’s change the language for how we help employees make behavioral shifts.
Macro Outlook Retakes Spotlight
We see the market’s focus returning to higher-for-longer rates and sticky inflation after a U.S. debt ceiling deal. We prefer an up-in-quality portfolio.
Technical Review Of The Market: Bulls In Control
Lately, we discussed macro-related market issues such as the” A.I., chase,” but a technical review can help manage shorter-term risks. Currently, the debate is about the market rally from the October lows. Is it a resumption of the 2009 bull market trend or an extended bear market rally?
What Changed with the Pandemic (And What Didn’t)
Portfolio Manager Alex Zarechnak identifies six key themes from the COVID years—some new, some familiar—to help anchor investors in today’s emerging markets.
Airlines Are Bracing For Record Summer Travel. A Golden Opportunity For Investors?
The industry group Airlines for America predicts that approximately 257 million people will travel on U.S. commercial airlines this summer, representing a 9.5% increase from last year. That would also set a new record, as volumes are projected to surpass the summer 2019 levels by around 2 million passengers.
A Much-Needed Crisis
“Crisis” is an overused word. Actual crises are those rare times when we are on the knife edge of disaster. It’s not a crisis when a bank fails, or Congress can’t agree on a budget. Those are annoyances (unless it's your bank). While not good, they don’t spell immediate catastrophe.
The Far-Reaching Effects of Commercial Real Estate’s Downward Spiral
The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates, the work from home trend, ESG distractions, increases in crime, etc., are having far reaching effects on our economy and investors.
The Risk of Playing It Safe
Investors have been loading up on T-bills and money market funds this year, but according to our Total Return team, that is not a sustainable strategy as it exposes investors to both reinvestment risk and inflation while creating an asset/liability mismatch.
Markets Now Accept Rate Cuts Unlikely
Inflation has proven sticky, even as growth weakens. Markets are realizing that policy rates are set to stay higher for longer. We like quality in stocks and bonds.
Debt Ceiling: Getting to Yes
A debt ceiling deal is within sight.
Is This The Turning Point For Energy Markets?
Following OPEC’s surprise production cut in April that saw crude oil squeeze from $65 to $80 per barrel in a manner of days, hedge funds and the like have once again resumed selling on slowing growth and recession fears.
The Resilience of the U.S. Economy: It’s All About Employment, and the Consumer
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Size, Value and Factor Exposures Improve Retirement Outcomes
Some of the most common questions clients ask advisors revolve around retirement:
New research from Dimensional addresses these questions. The study found that investors who tilt towards size, value, and profitability in their equity allocation are likely to enter retirement with significantly more assets, sustain their retirement spending longer, and to leave behind larger bequests than with a standard, broad-market-index portfolio. Given the popularity of broad market indexing, the findings have implications for advisors. Joining us to talk about the research is Mathieu Pellerin.
Risks to Growth Are Ample but May Prove Surmountable
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
Making Cent$ Of the Dollar: Understanding the Challenges to Its Global Reserve Currency Status
As other nations seek to become less dependent on the U.S. dollar, rumors of the greenback’s potential demise continue to swirl. Can the dollar remain king of the world’s reserve currency?
This A Rated REIT Just Increased Their Dividend Offering a 7% Current Yield
According to the company’s investor relations page on this REIT, Simon Property Trust (SPG) is a real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company.
VettaFi Voices On: One Year as VettaFi
Last week the VettaFi Voices gathered to reflect on a year at VettaFi under the firm’s new name. The team celebrated wins, and time spent together, and shared their favorite insights and highlights from a busy twelve months.
Debt Problem More Than Just a Ceiling
Although few nations have a debt ceiling similar to the U.S.', rising government debt levels are a widespread global risk that may lead to lower economic output and weaker growth.
Live at the Sub-ICs
The semiconductor cycle is dead, long live the super cycle!
The Quality Spectrum: Stability in an Unstable World
War, inflation, rising rates, banking chaos, and recession are among the challenges facing markets. Investors must balance these shorter-term risks with the long-term return prospects of equities.
VettaFi's Todd Rosenbluth on Hottest Trends in ETFs
Host Nate Geraci is back from Inside ETFs. VettaFi’s Todd Rosenbluth offers his thoughts on Nate’s key takeaways, which cover some of the industry's hottest trends.
Public or Private? A Strategic Question
We prefer private to public credit long term on better return potential. It’s the mirror image in equity: We prefer public stocks as risks fade in the medium term.
The View From China
Both domestic and external forces may limit China's growth prospects.
Six Steps to Escape the Micromanagement Trap
Here’s a quick guide to avoiding the trap of micromanagement and promoting productivity, innovation, and employee satisfaction.
How Stress Testing Retirement Plans Builds Client Confidence
A better retirement stress test would focus on the standard of living in retirement and how spending would need to change in times of market turmoil or heightened inflation.
Bitcoin’s Rise To Prominence On Full Display At This Year’s Miami Conference
Although attendance was down this year compared to last—mostly because Bitcoin’s price is still off its record high of approximately $69,000, set in November 2021—there was nevertheless an impressive turnout of investors of all ages, industry leaders, policymakers and more.
Income Fund Update: Building Resilience and Harnessing Yield in High Quality Assets
Despite economic uncertainty, we see compelling value in high-quality, liquid assets that we view as more resilient in the face of a potential recession.
ESG X Big Data: Solving for the Double Bottom Line
The view by many is that sustainable investing is concessionary in that financial results are forgone in order to achieve sustainable outcomes. Our historical analysis shows that this assertion isn’t true and that unique ESG data can be predictors of company results.
Tencent’s Sales Rebound Though Concerns Persist on China Outlook
Tencent Holdings Ltd. posted its fastest pace of revenue growth in more than a year but earnings missed estimates, reflecting an uneven internet sector recovery during China’s post-pandemic reopening.
The Curious Incident of the Elevated Profit Margins
Profit margins have remained elevated in the U.S. for a decade, and in a new white paper, GMO’s James Montier examines why that has been the case, ultimately finding the culprit in fiscal deficits.
Why Future Returns Could Approach Zero
What if I told you that future returns could approach zero? Such seems hard to believe, considering young investors piling back into the markets since the beginning of the year
Spring Brings Cautious Optimism to U.S. Housing Market
Although affordability remains an obstacle, recent data offer reasons to be more constructive as broader conditions still appear supportive of home prices.
Economic Moats | Active Investors Seek Wider Moats
Economic moats, also called business moats, are competitive advantages that help a company maintain long-term profits and market share over competitors.
U.S. Debt Stand-off To Add to Volatility
We think the U.S. debt limit showdown will spark renewed volatility in markets. That risk reinforces why we stay invested and cautious by going up in quality.
The Folly of Trying to Control Technology
Technological progress in the last two centuries, and especially in the recent past, has been nothing short of amazing. So why are we so unhappy? Why aren’t we all rich?
Plan for Paralysis
The economy co-exists and interacts with broader society, including government. Public policies—and the political processes that determine them—can change the economy in deep and lasting ways. We may not like them, but we can’t ignore them.
Weekly Market Guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs.
Corporate America’s Taste for Buying Back Its Own Stock Is Waning
Corporate America, one of the few reliable purchasers of equities in this bear market, is retreating from its buying binge, fresh evidence that the Federal Reserve-induced slowdown is taking a toll on business sentiment.
ETF Issuers Are Losing Tolerance for ESG as Closures Surge
As investor interest in ETFs that promote higher environmental, social, and governance standards fades, more issuers are shutting down these funds.
Is a Recession Inevitable?
Economic reports and corporate data last week highlighted the cautious stance of corporations, contrasted against a resilient consumer, who continues to be propped up by strong demand in the labor market and increasing wages.
Commercial Real Estate: Going Granular
Financial cracks from rate hikes have led to jitters over commercial real estate. Yet granularity is key. We see opportunities in some U.S. industrial properties.
The Biggest Risk in a Planner-Client Relationship
The biggest risk to a planner/client relationship lasting through the client’s lifetime can be the adult children the client has appointed to hold their power of attorney.
The Game Has Changed
In the early 2020s, the stock market looked much like basketball used to: a big man’s game. As examples, money management firms like Vanguard and Blackrock lumbered to higher heights of assets while the passive firms swallowed more market share.
The Return of QE
Economic fundamentals are lining up for a return of QE. Yes, inflation is still on the high side but falling so rapidly that at least some central banks will be willing to take action before inflation is back to 2%.
Markets & Investing
Over the last week, the market saw volatility pick up after approaching the upper end of what we believe is the near-term trading range.
Scope 3: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once
Why Scope 3 emissions hide as much as they reveal, and what investors can do about it.
Top 5 Benefits of Direct Indexing: Our View
Direct indexing is an innovative investment strategy that can solve a variety of investor challenges. We discuss the five main benefits of incorporating direct indexing in a client’s portfolio.
Aswath Damodaran: It’s Time to Retire the ESG Concept
The fiercest adversary of investing based on environmental, social and governance (ESG) is Aswath Damodaran. ESG is a failure, its advocates are to blame, and the concept should be retired, according to Damodaran.
Ten AI Tools for Advisors
How do you go from the theoretical to the practical? What AI tools can you use that will streamline and improve your processes?
Retirement Trends Anticipated by 2030
Principal Financial Group® recently released the results of an extensive survey it conducted asking advisors and employers their expectations for the future of retirement. Among the key trends it identified were an aging workforce with evolving financial planning needs. At the other extreme, Gen Z workers are beginning their careers with investment and planning preferences that differ markedly from older generations. Other findings included the anticipated need for personalization, financial wellness monitoring and counseling, and better services for retirement planning.
China’s Consumers Get Their Mojo Back
China’s economy has turned the corner, and is on a path towards a gradual, domestic demand-driven recovery. Andy Rothman outlines the reasons why China’s recovery is likely to be sustainable.
Big Tech Earnings to Offer Reality Check Over AI Hype
Big Tech earnings next week will offer investors a dose of reality following this year’s impressive gains in the sector that were powered by hype over artificial intelligence.
ETFs Killed Off by Merciless Market at Double the Rate of Last Year
The pace of failures has more than doubled in the $7 trillion exchange-traded fund industry so far this year, as volatile markets and fierce competition put pressure on issuers.
Buying Unwanted Assets
To kick off the beginning of 2023, there continues to be a bias we see in equity investor portfolios. These portfolios have many of the traits investors see at the endpoints of the economy like software, consumer products and computer chips.
Inflationary Choices
Spotting trend changes is the key to economic forecasting. They don’t happen often. Most of the time, this year will be similar to last year. The pace varies but the overall trend continues… until it doesn’t.
The Transition To Electric Vehicles And Renewables Will Test Global Commodity Supply
It’s believed that to meet this goal, two out of every three passenger vehicles manufactured in the U.S. would need to be electric models.
Schwab Market Perspective: Top of the Rate Cycle
What does a potential change in Federal Reserve policy mean for markets and the economy?
Taking a Long-Term View on China Equities
Despite recent headwinds, structural drivers underpinning China’s growth remain intact. Sectors that will benefit from the structural trends include healthcare, industrial automation, and domestic brands targeting increased spending by Chinese consumers.
The Case for Low-Volatility, High-Dividend Equities
Given market uncertainty and the risk of a US recession, is now the time for defensive stocks? Making a case for low-volatility, high-dividend equities with Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions’ Vaneet Chadha and Michael LaBella.
The Dollars Death? Not So Fast - Part One
There are four critical reasons why the dollar will not lose its global reserve status anytime soon.
Tesla Gives Car Shoppers Reason to Wait as Prices Keep Falling
One thinks Tesla’s stock is a buy and headed back to $300; the other believes it’s a sell and will fall to $150.
AT1 Bonds
Born of the Global Financial Crisis, additional tier-1 securities were designed to absorb bank losses in times of turbulence and maintain financial safety at no cost to taxpayers. Despite good intentions, we’ve found AT1s to be flawed instruments that are contingently junior to common equity in practice.
Top 5 Reasons to Use Direct Indexing
The Global Underperformance Facing ESG Investors
Sustainable investing continues to gain in popularity, with investors worldwide frequently attracted not only by ethical concerns but also by the lure of superior returns. Unfortunately, new research focused on global stocks showed that they did not get what they were sold.
The Case For Secular Inflation
Inflation regimes often coincide with changing political regimes and agendas, much of which stems from the rise of populism and fiscal dominance. As a result of decades of globalisation and rising wealth inequality, we may well be entering a new regime - one of higher inflation and higher inflation volatility.
Five Reasons to Buy Emerging Markets Equities
Emerging Markets (EM) have faced a challenging environment over the past five years, due to a series of global shocks that have triggered elevated market volatility and led the MSCI EM equity benchmark to experience its most protracted drawdown in history.
Trading Volatility Is the New Reality for Bond Investors
Jarred by daily double-digit moves in Treasury yields, bond investors are bracing for at least another year of rocky trading, abandoning hopes that in 2023 the market would return to normality.
Japan Gets A Raise
The risk of Japanese inflation getting out of control is not high.
What to Expect After the Silicon Valley Bank Collapse
The Silicon Valley Bank collapse may be an extreme event, but it gives us a preview at a 100x magnification of what other banks are facing.
Kazakhstan tells Washington and Brussels: We are open for business
This essay focuses discusses a February visit by Secretary of State Blinken to Astana, and the EU-Central Asian Economic Forum in May.
Microsoft Pushes to Squeeze All it Can From the Last of its Climate Fund
When Microsoft Corp. launched its $1 billion Climate Innovation Fund three years ago, it was the lone tech giant pledging serious money to tackle rising temperatures. The dangers facing the planet have since become more acute, and the fund has about $400 million left.
Recession Indicators Say The Fed Broke Something
Recession indicators are ringing loudly.
A Contrarian Buying Opportunity For Energy Bulls
Up until recently, crude oil inventories saw continued build after build, suggesting the real time supply and demand dynamics in the market have been tilted toward the bearish side of the ledger.
T minus 10, 9, 8….
The investment landscape is pockmarked by intractable statistics that continue to impose strategic and psychological barriers to the short term potential of portfolio alpha.
Market Volatility and Developments in the Banking Sector
What are the implications of the ongoing volatility in the banking sector, and what does it mean for markets in Europe and globally?
Want Safer Banks? Then Prepare for Slower Growth
Congress is asking the Federal Reserve and other financial regulators what went wrong at Silicon Valley Bank and why they didn’t see it coming. In due course, they’ll admit some mistakes, draw some lessons and tweak some rules.
Client Testimonials: Unlocking the potential for rapid growth and referrals
In this webinar, you will learn how to enlist ideal clients to share their experiences with you and your business, and how to translate that feedback into consistent, sustainable business opportunities.
The Fundamental Logic of Annuities with Lifetime Income
A simple annuity can effectively replace bond holdings in a retirement plan that are earmarked to meet the lifetime spending goal. The question is why should a retiree hold any bonds in the portion of their asset base designed to cover ongoing retirement spending goals?
The Dilemma That Isn’t: Bonds versus Bond Funds
Should investors build their own portfolios of bonds, or buy shares of bond funds? Is there an economic difference or just one of appearance? Are directly held bonds safer because they mature, and you get your money back? How should one decide?
Sinology: Opportunity and Risk
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
The Fiduciary is the "Decider"
The importance of Biden’s veto to save the DOL rule was not about assessing ESG factors. It was about affirming the role of the fiduciary in investment advice.
Heading Toward a National Bank?
The late great Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was often in dissent in key legal cases during his long career.
Sustainable Investing: Opportunistically Managing Risk
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
Pension Reform Showdown: Will The U.S. Follow France’s Bold Retirement Age Changes?
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
Could Bank Runs Lead to a Run on Gold & Silver?
Fears of bank runs precipitating a broader financial crisis helped spark a surge in bullion buying this week.
The Professor's Portfolio
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
European Banking Sector—Taking Stock After Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
Banks and the Butterfly Effect—the Global Ramifications
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.