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Treasury Yields Snapshot: July 31, 2026

The yield on the 10-year note finished July 31, 2026 at 4.75% while the 2-year note ended at 4.28%.

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Consumer Sentiment Hits Five Month High, Improving Over Prelim Estimates

Consumer sentiment reached its highest level since March, driven by easing gas prices. The final July reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 55.2. This marks an 11.5% (5.7 points) increase from June and beat the preliminary reading of 54.4.

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Two Measures of Inflation: June 2026

Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.3% and core CPI at 2.6%.

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Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: July 2026

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.13% in June and was up 3.81% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.24% month-over-month and up 0.14% year-over-year.

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Core PCE Inflation at 3.3% in June, Edging Down from May

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.3% year-over-year in June. This marks a slight decrease from May's 3.4% reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.1%.

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Initial Jobless Claims Up 9K, Lower Than Expected

In the week ending July 25th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 197,000. This represents an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 201,000.

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Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 1.5%, Lower Than Expected

U.S. economic growth rebounded at the beginning of 2026, according to the BEA’s latest estimate. Real GDP rose at a 1.5% annual rate in Q2, falling below the 2.1% forecast, but marking an acceleration from the 0.5% final estimate seen in Q4 of last year.

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Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: July 29, 2026

The Federal Reserve concluded its fifth meeting of the year by holding the federal funds rate (FFR) steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

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Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Inches Down 4% This Week

Bitcoin's closing price inched lower this week, dropping almost 4%. BTC is currently down approximately 27% year-to-date and sits about 49% below its October 2025 record high.

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Gasoline Prices Jump for Third Straight Week

Gasoline prices jumped for a third straight week, reaching their highest level in almost two months.

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Richmond Manufacturing Index: Mostly Flat Activity in July

Fifth district manufacturing activity was mostly flat in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index inched up one point to 5, marking the fourth consecutive positive reading.

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Consumer Confidence Moderated Slightly in July

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® unexpectedly inched lower in July, falling 1.4 points to 90.8. The index was below the forecast of 92.4.

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S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index: Home Prices Continue to Decline

Home prices fell for a third straight month in May according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, as the housing slowdown continues. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index was essentially flat month-over-month and was up 1.1% year-over-year.

Commentary

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