With the growth in 401(k) plans and the contraction of private pensions over the last 30 years, risks in retirement have slowly and almost imperceptibly transferred from institutions to individuals. Institutions staffed with actuaries and analysts are well suited to manage those risks. Individual investors may need some help.
This session introduces a relatively new kind of portfolio income insurance: a Contingent Deferred Annuity. It unbundles the insurance from underlying investments so that advisors may “wrap” the risk in client portfolios by covering investments in retail ETFs and mutual funds with lifetime income protections.
The Fed’s move towards more restrictive policy has rattled bonds and put equities on the brink of a bear market. But what is priced in and where do we go from here? In this month’s webinar, we discuss equity and fixed income valuations and examine how Innovator ETFs can help advisors hedge market risk and capitalize on opportunities.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 28, 2022, at 3.20%, the 2-year note ended at 3.10%, and the 30-year at 3.30%.
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
It came as a surprise when I found the annual report of the New Zealand SuperFund. While no one could fault it for sticking with passive investments, it chose a different path, with stunning results.
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Many of my clients or their kids will face repaying student loans. And given the inflationary environment and related rising interest rates, some of them will need to make careful choices about prioritizing their payback plans.
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through June 27, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD loss of 1.71%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a loss of 4.99% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a loss of 6.67%. Coming in last is Germany's DAXK with a loss of 19.6% YTD.
Real GDP declined at a 1.5% annual rate in the first quarter and, as of Friday, the Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model projects zero growth in Q2.
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. The latest debt level is down 2.6% month-over-month.
My CFP peers must be tired of hearing me sing the praises of living in South Dakota. But one of them recently emailed some disturbing news. A recent national survey that ranked financial literacy placed South Dakota in 49th place.
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
Contrary to economic theory, in recent years funds with an ESG mandate have outperformed the broader market. New research shows that outperformance was caused by increased asset flows to so-called green stocks, raising the prospects for lower returns going forward.
It’s easy to be carried away: Top banking regulators are hungry for the efficiency, profitability and better service that pan-European banks could deliver.
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
Gasoline consumption in the US probably peaked in the years before the pandemic.
Surging mortgage rates have finally cooled off the housing market. The cooldown, though, is coming unevenly, accentuating differences between the existing home market and new construction.
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
The varied responses of individual countries to global inflationary pressures have contributed to elevated real-rate differentials between developed and emerging markets.
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes Initial Jobless Claims through 6/18.
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
When Putin started the war, he tried to shift the blame to NATO, calling it the instigator. He argued that Russia had no choice but to defensively launch the war to prevent NATO from surrounding Russia from all sides. A few days ago, Putin finally lifted his veil of pretense: this is a war of conquest.
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
The June Final Report came in at 50.0, down 8.4 (14.4%) from the May Final. Investing.com had forecast 50.2. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 41.7 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 41.0 percent below the geometric mean.
Ken Griffin just set a new standard for Wall Street firms looking to make the move south.
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
In this video I cover 20 stocks requested by subscribers.
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
President Joe Biden and his allies in Congress are rightly concerned about surging prices.
What was once a virtuous circle of locked-up tokens yielding interest that would be reinvested ad infinitum is now a vicious one, as margin calls and liquidations take place at algorithmic speed.
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Bonds have been whispering in the ears of stock investors all year. Now they’re starting to shout.
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
Register today to join the Delaware Funds by Macquarie® Fixed Income team, as they discuss credit market valuations, the current market environment, their outlook for the remainder of 2022, and how to find value, specifically in high yield securities including bank loans. The discussion will include an analysis of credit fundamentals and technicals, how the US Federal Reserve is impacting credit markets, and how to look for attractive valuations.
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
While everyone’s financial journey is different, there are actionable steps advisors can take to empower their female clients’ financial futures and health.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
The yield of the U.S. high yield (HY) market, currently at 8.4%, has risen by over 420 basis points since the start of the year.
Lifetime income solutions are high on the wish lists of defined contribution (DC) plan participants, with the certainty of a guaranteed lifetime income stream ranking as the top feature in our surveys over the past decade.
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:
Reg BI turns two on June 30th. It was supposed to help investors better understand how advisors and brokers differ and have BDs meet a “best interest” standard based on fiduciary principles. It turns out that Reg BI is doing the opposite.
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
Here’s how to position yourself for a lifetime of relationships by creating better touchpoints with a client’s family.
Because the consequences of leaving longevity unmanaged are likely to be the most devastating, advisors must act now to address it.
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
There is no Hall of Fame for single parents. There should be. The challenges of being a single parent are monumental.
Agricultural commodities fell, offering some reprieve to rampant food inflation, as traders weigh incoming data on harvests and looming recessions in some major economies.
US builders completed more apartments in large multi-unit buildings than ever before.
US banking giants are poised to return $80 billion to shareholders after this year’s Federal Reserve stress tests, less than last year’s elevated level that followed a pandemic-driven buyback pause.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
Given year-to-date fixed income returns, one would be forgiven if they never wanted to own the asset class again. Such a view, however, could prove costly as, for the first time in a year, areas of the market are starting to look attractive.
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth.
Stocks struggled again this past week with the S&P 500 falling -5.79% for the week and the S&P 500 has now lost ground in 10 of the last 11 weeks, falling -19.16%, which is very unusual.
Who would want to be tasked with investing their own and other people’s money in companies run by weirdos and jerks? But that turns out to be one of the most important skill sets shared by successful venture capitalists.
How high do interest rates have to go to control inflation?
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Japan has been stuck in a low growth, low inflation (and at times, deflationary) environment.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
In 2003, at age 19, Elizabeth Holmes founded Theranos, and it became a $10 billion company by 2014. But it was a fraud. Aspects of target date funds mirror the Holmes story.
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
For all the talk of bear markets and a possible recession, investors continue to pile into American equities.
Since the start of 2019, investors have plowed more than $300 billion into environmental, social and governance (ESG)-themed exchange traded funds.
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.
The equity-linked debt of some of the pandemic’s darlings has plunged to record lows and is now considered distressed.
Investors are terrified.
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
It’s too soon to call an end to America’s worst bond-market collapse in at least half a century.
A key source of US economic growth this year -- consumer spending -- is showing signs of losing steam, even before Wednesday’s round of Federal Reserve rate hikes kick in.
Late last year, investors who were clinging to the hope that inflation might be temporary took solace in the fact that real Treasury yields remained negative, a sign that bond investors might not be that worried about inflation.
Income
Insuring Client Spending in Retirement with Portfolio Income Insurance
With the growth in 401(k) plans and the contraction of private pensions over the last 30 years, risks in retirement have slowly and almost imperceptibly transferred from institutions to individuals. Institutions staffed with actuaries and analysts are well suited to manage those risks. Individual investors may need some help.
This session introduces a relatively new kind of portfolio income insurance: a Contingent Deferred Annuity. It unbundles the insurance from underlying investments so that advisors may “wrap” the risk in client portfolios by covering investments in retail ETFs and mutual funds with lifetime income protections.
Tackling restrictive Fed policy, inflation and a recessionary sentiment with Defined Outcome ETFs
The Fed’s move towards more restrictive policy has rattled bonds and put equities on the brink of a bear market. But what is priced in and where do we go from here? In this month’s webinar, we discuss equity and fixed income valuations and examine how Innovator ETFs can help advisors hedge market risk and capitalize on opportunities.
Treasury Snapshot: 2-10 Spread at 0.1%
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 28, 2022, at 3.20%, the 2-year note ended at 3.10%, and the 30-year at 3.30%.
Don't Fight the Trend
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
High-Yielding High-Quality Dividend Growth Stock Benefiting from Rising Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
More “Stagflation-Lite”, Moderately Positive On Equities Ex Europe, Still Negative On Global Bonds
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
How a New Zealand Superfund “Beat the Market”
It came as a surprise when I found the annual report of the New Zealand SuperFund. While no one could fault it for sticking with passive investments, it chose a different path, with stunning results.
Consumer Confidence Down Again in June
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Some Unsolicited Recession Survival Advice to Gen Z
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
Mortgage Lenders Turn ‘Desperate’ as Soaring Rates Roil Industry
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Up 20% YoY
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Dealing with Student Loans, Rising Interest Rates, and Inflation
Many of my clients or their kids will face repaying student loans. And given the inflationary environment and related rising interest rates, some of them will need to make careful choices about prioritizing their payback plans.
World Markets Update: June 27, 2022
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through June 27, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD loss of 1.71%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a loss of 4.99% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a loss of 6.67%. Coming in last is Germany's DAXK with a loss of 19.6% YTD.
We're Not Already in a Recession
Real GDP declined at a 1.5% annual rate in the first quarter and, as of Friday, the Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model projects zero growth in Q2.
Re-discovering the Market’s Sweet Spot
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
Margin Debt: Down 2.6% in May
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. The latest debt level is down 2.6% month-over-month.
My State Flunked Financial Literacy. How About Yours?
My CFP peers must be tired of hearing me sing the praises of living in South Dakota. But one of them recently emailed some disturbing news. A recent national survey that ranked financial literacy placed South Dakota in 49th place.
Russia Slips Into Historic Default as Sanctions Muddy Next Steps
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
A Deep Analytic Perspective of the 2022 Market Correction
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
An Ominous Sign for ESG Investors
Contrary to economic theory, in recent years funds with an ESG mandate have outperformed the broader market. New research shows that outperformance was caused by increased asset flows to so-called green stocks, raising the prospects for lower returns going forward.
Should European Banking Really Be More Like US Banking?
It’s easy to be carried away: Top banking regulators are hungry for the efficiency, profitability and better service that pan-European banks could deliver.
Pending Home Sales Edged Up in May
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
The Decline of Fossil Fuels Is Going to Be Expensive
Gasoline consumption in the US probably peaked in the years before the pandemic.
Homebuilders Still Find Plenty of Demand in a Cooling Market
Surging mortgage rates have finally cooled off the housing market. The cooldown, though, is coming unevenly, accentuating differences between the existing home market and new construction.
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Market Is Shredding All the Time-Tested Ways to Chart Its Course
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 16: Fed Watch: A Deep Dive into 75
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
Bond Traders Are Reading the Federal Reserve Wrong Again
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Banks Ace Fed Stress Tests, Pave Way for Shareholder Payouts
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Taking Stock: Q3 2022 Equity Market Outlook
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
Assessing Inflation’s Effects Across Emerging Markets
The varied responses of individual countries to global inflationary pressures have contributed to elevated real-rate differentials between developed and emerging markets.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions Index Update
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes Initial Jobless Claims through 6/18.
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies?
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
Putin’s Mask is Off. Europe is Next
When Putin started the war, he tried to shift the blame to NATO, calling it the instigator. He argued that Russia had no choice but to defensively launch the war to prevent NATO from surrounding Russia from all sides. A few days ago, Putin finally lifted his veil of pretense: this is a war of conquest.
A Realistic Framing of the Progress in Artificial Intelligence
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Lowest Reading on Record
The June Final Report came in at 50.0, down 8.4 (14.4%) from the May Final. Investing.com had forecast 50.2. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 41.7 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 41.0 percent below the geometric mean.
Wall Street South Gets Biggest Win in Griffin’s Grand Miami Plan
Ken Griffin just set a new standard for Wall Street firms looking to make the move south.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Stocks Adding to Weekly Gains
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
20 Stocks Subscribers Asked To Have Analyzed
In this video I cover 20 stocks requested by subscribers.
Stocks Sniffing A Bear Market Rally
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
What Biden Should (and Shouldn’t) Do About Inflation
President Joe Biden and his allies in Congress are rightly concerned about surging prices.
Crypto Is Not Too Big To Fail, Even With Help From FTX
What was once a virtuous circle of locked-up tokens yielding interest that would be reinvested ad infinitum is now a vicious one, as margin calls and liquidations take place at algorithmic speed.
Wall Street Faces Billion-Dollar Losses on Sinking Buyout Debt
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
Oil Is in Another Bear Market - and for Good Reason
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Stocks Are Losing the Race With Bonds in Era of Tightening Fed
Bonds have been whispering in the ears of stock investors all year. Now they’re starting to shout.
NFIB Signals A Recession Is Coming…Again
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
Reaching for Resilience
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
Credit in Focus: Finding Value in High Yield and Bank Loans
Register today to join the Delaware Funds by Macquarie® Fixed Income team, as they discuss credit market valuations, the current market environment, their outlook for the remainder of 2022, and how to find value, specifically in high yield securities including bank loans. The discussion will include an analysis of credit fundamentals and technicals, how the US Federal Reserve is impacting credit markets, and how to look for attractive valuations.
Don’t Cry for the Most Wealthy
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
The Future of Female Financial Empowerment is Today
While everyone’s financial journey is different, there are actionable steps advisors can take to empower their female clients’ financial futures and health.
Recession Calls Grow; Mnuchin on Inflation Threat: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
Inflation Ate Your Free Lunch, But You’re Still Better Off
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
What Does 8% Yield Pay For?
The yield of the U.S. high yield (HY) market, currently at 8.4%, has risen by over 420 basis points since the start of the year.
Lifetime Income Fees vs. Costs: Look Beneath the Tip of the Iceberg
Lifetime income solutions are high on the wish lists of defined contribution (DC) plan participants, with the certainty of a guaranteed lifetime income stream ranking as the top feature in our surveys over the past decade.
CFNAI Components: Employment, Production, Consumption, Sales
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:
Reg BI’s Unhappy Second Birthday
Reg BI turns two on June 30th. It was supposed to help investors better understand how advisors and brokers differ and have BDs meet a “best interest” standard based on fiduciary principles. It turns out that Reg BI is doing the opposite.
Respect the Bear
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
Five Touchpoints to Build Family Relationships
Here’s how to position yourself for a lifetime of relationships by creating better touchpoints with a client’s family.
The Emperor of All Risks
Because the consequences of leaving longevity unmanaged are likely to be the most devastating, advisors must act now to address it.
Existing-Home Sales: Down 3.4% in May
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
Single Parents Deserve a Hall of Fame
There is no Hall of Fame for single parents. There should be. The challenges of being a single parent are monumental.
Global Food Inflation Gets Reprieve as Wheat and Oilseeds Tumble
Agricultural commodities fell, offering some reprieve to rampant food inflation, as traders weigh incoming data on harvests and looming recessions in some major economies.
Big, Boxy Apartment Buildings Are Multiplying Faster Than Ever
US builders completed more apartments in large multi-unit buildings than ever before.
Big Banks Led by JPMorgan Set to Return $80 Billion to Investors
US banking giants are poised to return $80 billion to shareholders after this year’s Federal Reserve stress tests, less than last year’s elevated level that followed a pandemic-driven buyback pause.
Recession Warnings Multiply; Exxon Signs Gas Deal: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the United States was heading toward a recession.
The Fixed Income Water is Getting Warmer
Given year-to-date fixed income returns, one would be forgiven if they never wanted to own the asset class again. Such a view, however, could prove costly as, for the first time in a year, areas of the market are starting to look attractive.
“Economic Hurricane” – Hyperbole Or Real Possibility?
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
The Fed Capitulates
The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth.
DMA Table Still Negative. But Erlanger Options Rank Showing Extreme Short Selling Indicating A Bounce In The Offing
Stocks struggled again this past week with the S&P 500 falling -5.79% for the week and the S&P 500 has now lost ground in 10 of the last 11 weeks, falling -19.16%, which is very unusual.
How Venture Capital Thrives by Betting on Weirdness
Who would want to be tasked with investing their own and other people’s money in companies run by weirdos and jerks? But that turns out to be one of the most important skill sets shared by successful venture capitalists.
An Active Week For Central Banks
How high do interest rates have to go to control inflation?
Gold Has Been One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022 (So Far)
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Inflation in Japan Should Be Cheered, Not Feared
Japan has been stuck in a low growth, low inflation (and at times, deflationary) environment.
CB LEI: Falls Again in May
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May was down 0.4% from the April final figure of 118.8.
Elizabeth Holmes’ Lesson for Target-Date Funds
In 2003, at age 19, Elizabeth Holmes founded Theranos, and it became a $10 billion company by 2014. But it was a fraud. Aspects of target date funds mirror the Holmes story.
World’s Central Banks Unleash Most Hawkish Campaign Since 1980s
The world’s central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s, risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn’t see coming.
For All Their Worries, Investors Are Piling Into US Stocks
For all the talk of bear markets and a possible recession, investors continue to pile into American equities.
ESG Investment Cools as the Sector’s Notoriety Grows
Since the start of 2019, investors have plowed more than $300 billion into environmental, social and governance (ESG)-themed exchange traded funds.
The Bear Is Here
We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit.
Tech Bear Market’s Latest Casualty Is Pandemic-Era Convertible Debt
The equity-linked debt of some of the pandemic’s darlings has plunged to record lows and is now considered distressed.
Investors Are Terrified, So Why Aren’t They Selling?
Investors are terrified.
Crypto Market Outlook: Risk-Off
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
Bond Market Losses Just Beginning as Fed Sets Path to 4% Yields
It’s too soon to call an end to America’s worst bond-market collapse in at least half a century.
Consumer Spending Is Running Out Of Steam and the Market Isn’t Ready For It
A key source of US economic growth this year -- consumer spending -- is showing signs of losing steam, even before Wednesday’s round of Federal Reserve rate hikes kick in.
How Inflation Fuels Bargain Hunting
Late last year, investors who were clinging to the hope that inflation might be temporary took solace in the fact that real Treasury yields remained negative, a sign that bond investors might not be that worried about inflation.