If you’ve read the book or seen the movie, Moneyball, you may be familiar with the story of Billy Beane and how he and the Oakland A’s revolutionized sports management. By focusing on data rather than the ‘gut feelings’ felt by his scouts, he re-defined what ‘success’ meant in MLB. Now imagine those techniques applied to portfolio management.
Rather than relying on the ‘gut feelings’ of portfolio managers and research analysts, New Age Alpha has re-engineered active stock selection in the same way. Using a systematic and repeatable investment process that aims to avoid the losers rather than pick the winners New Age Alpha aims to deliver better returns with less risk.
New Age Alpha’s goal is to form long-term partnerships by helping advisors build their practice. We recognize the importance of showing your clients something they’ve never seen before. Our methodology and hands-on tool enrich the experience for both client and advisor by easily communicating how a portfolio can benefit from avoiding the losers.
According to Preqin, the leading provider of alternative assets data, U.S. real estate funds raised a record $111 billion in equity in 2021, an increase of 35% from 2020 and 16% more than 2019. More investors are allocating to private real estate than ever before, likely because the asset class is poised to rally throughout 2022 while inflation rises, stocks experience continued volatility, and bond returns decrease.
Origin Investments has been laser-focused on private real estate investing for fifteen years. On this webinar, Origin Investments Co-CEO David Scherer will discuss the ways private real estate benefits an investor’s portfolio and why an increasing number of RIAs are allocating to private real estate. Plus, he’ll provide an overview of the diversified multifamily real estate funds that Origin offers to investors.
Concerns around high equity valuations and rising asset prices are finally manifesting. In this webinar, Richard Bernstein will examine the critical shift in the markets - focusing on the anti-tech trade, cyclicals, consumer staples and other areas where RBA is finding opportunities and isolating risks.
At Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA) we employ a disciplined, top-down approach – we generate alpha by uncovering global investment styles and themes where we believe there are disparities between fundamentals and sentiment. And in current markets, disparities are large.
We seek to beat the market through individual stock selection. We are focused on fundamentals – with particular emphasis on corporate profit cycles rather than economic cycles.
Mr. Bernstein, CEO/CIO of RBA will be addressing key areas that will be important for you and your clients:
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve did not make any formal changes to its policy, but did signal it would begin raising the fed funds rate soon.
The Nasdaq will go into bear market territory and the S&P 500 will suffer a correction, according to Jeremy Siegel.
The longstanding negative correlation between stock and bond prices is an artifact of the low-inflation environment of the past 30 years.
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales fell in December, denoting two straight months of declines."
Crypto prices are tumbling. By one account, crypto assets have lost about $1.35 trillion globally since November, with some falling in price by 80% or more. Many investors feel a real pinch.
Energy transition investment follows familiar patterns in global capital markets. Large, established financial institutions supply hundreds of billions of dollars a year to finance construction of long-lived assets using familiar zero-carbon technologies — i.e., deployment.
Strategists are mapping out their best trade ideas after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set the stage for raising interest rates to combat the highest inflation since 1982.
The term direct indexing is somewhat of a misnomer.
This is the 7th in a series of 11 videos where I will cover each of the 11 sectors looking for value.
Large hedge funds and private-equity firms may soon have to start reporting steep losses, major redemptions and other extraordinary events in near real-time to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission -- a change that the regulator says will help it protect the financial system during meltdowns and wild swings like the meme stock mania that roiled markets a year ago.
ICYMI: In this roundup, we’re highlighting the five most popular pieces of content from the previous week.
Energy sector leaders quickly shifted from the “green” economy in 2020 to the “brown” economy in 2021.
Spurred by rate hike concerns, geopolitical tensions and more, markets saw a 10% correction intra-day today – find out how that impacts our outlook.
Companies are buying raw and intermediate goods at a record pace, which we believe will influence economic growth in 2022.
Since May 2020, the Chinese Yuan has defied the path of other emerging market currencies, strengthening by almost 12%.
Disagreements about the outlook for inflation in the new year and beyond continue.
In our latest outlook we examine the long-term implications of the pandemic, particularly changes to the labor market and the supply chain, and we discuss why we will be focusing on companies with pricing power in 2022.
Meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, the broader stock market: All have tumbled with astonishing speed this year, and few strategists think the pain will end here.
During retirement, deciding how much to withdraw each year from investments can be complicated when both the length of retirement and returns on assets are not known. Unknown longevity presents a tradeoff in which a retiree can either spend generously and risk outliving savings — or spend conservatively and live a less enjoyable retirement. But it is possible to know an outcome before investing. Consider Buffer ETFs™ and other Defined outcome ETFs™ that use options strategies to shape a return
Oil prices rose on Tuesday following the biggest one-day tumble this year, with traders refocusing on the outlook for energy demand and shaking off broader weakness in financial markets.
I offer my top 10 roster of realizable and important financial resolutions to start your year off on the right foot!
On April 12, 2019, Chevron (CVX) and its CEO, Mike Wirth, offered $33 billion dollars to buy the common shares of Anadarko Petroleum.
A portfolio’s return is driven by its investment strategy—a set of decisions that governs allocation and timing of capital among the portfolio’s positions.
In our 2022 Volume Analysis Outlook, the S&P 500 was fresh off new highs exceeding 4800.
Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
The headline number of 113.8 was a decrease of 1.4 from the final reading of 115.2 for December.
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.18% increase month over month which is cut to 0.74% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 18.8% YoY increase.
Last month, Amplify ETFs expanded its suite of BlackSwan ETFs with the launch of the Amplify BlackSwan Tech & Treasury ETF (NYSE Arca: QSWN). QSWN is an index-based ETF that seeks to hedge against significant losses while still participating in technology & growth equities, without an artificial cap.
QSWN is Amplify’s third BlackSwan ETF. The other BlackSwan ETFs, SWAN and ISWN, have together amassed close to $1 billion in assets. Launched in 2018, SWAN has shown to be an attractive risk-managed investment in the marketplace. ISWN is approaching its one-year anniversary and provides access to international equities.
The COVID-19 pandemic looked set to batter the world’s banks—and yet banks’ balance sheets are now the strongest they’ve been since the global financial crisis (GFC).
Surging markets spurred a buying frenzy for everything from stocks and cryptocurrencies to new homes over the last two years. Now, with inflation at a nearly 40-year high and at least three priced-in rate hikes, the hunt for investing safe havens is on.
U.S. wages are rising after decades of stagnation. And yet, by all indications, income inequality in the U.S. is the highest ever and growing, and tens of millions of full-time workers still fail to earn a living wage.
With the S&P 500 extending its selloff from a recent record to more than 10%, trading is spiking across exchange-traded funds from leveraged strategies tracking technology shares to those betting on market volatility.
U.S. bank stocks are headed for their worst losing streak in a year, burning investors who bought shares on expectations that the Federal Reserve raising rates for the first time since 2018 would boost the sector.
Rate hikes will be far fewer than the markets currently expect.
The Fed is walking a tightrope between instability and inflation. Can it successfully tame inflation without causing severe market dislocations?
To reap the potential tax benefits of MLP investing and to make sure the allocation is meeting an investor’s needs, it’s important to understand the nuances of MLP investing.
Is the failure of the value factor over the last decade due to the inability of book value to incorporate so-called “intangible assets,” such as the intellectual property that has propelled companies like Amazon, Alphabet and Apple? New research provides the answer.
Laurence Kotlikoff is a world-class economist who can convince you to pay off your mortgage and make you snort out your nose laughing at the same time; Money Magic is his compendium of life hacks aimed at leaving the reader wealthier and happier.
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
The S&P 500 spent the short holiday week declining, ending down 5.68% from last Friday. The index is 8.3% below its record close and down 7.73% YTD.
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 21, 2022, at 1.75%, the 2-year note ended at 1.01%, and the 30-year at 2.07%.
In his renomination hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the key to maximum sustainable employment and financial stability was keeping inflation low.
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise.
The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.
This is the 6th in a series of 11 videos where I will cover each of the 11 sectors looking for value.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was up 0.8% from the November final figure of 119.9. Annual revisions were made.
The panic of the day is the news about interest rates.
December's ZHVI came in at $320,662, up 1.4% from the previous month and up 19.6% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.97% MoM and 15.2% YoY.
All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend.
With January being a month for prognostications, David Mann, our Head of Global Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) Capital Markets, shares his annual outlook for the ETF industry and key trends he sees taking shape in 2022.
This morning's release of the December Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million units from the previous month's 6.49 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 6.44 million. The latest number represents a 6% decrease from the previous month and an 8.3% decrease YoY.
A rapid one-two punch of interest-rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction from the Federal Reserve risks unsettling bond and stock markets that have already taken a beating.
Small cap equity (as measured by the Russell 2000® Index) had its best two quarters of performance on record in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. However, small caps have failed to break out in a sustained way since their February 2021 peak despite strong earnings results. Mixed signals from macroeconomic data and sentiment indicators appear to have investors on edge. Portfolio managers from Carillon’s diverse affiliates sort potential risks from areas of opportunity in the dynamic small cap space.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 0.93% month-over-month.
There are three pillars of investing for us at Smead Capital Management.
“Don’t Fight The Fed.” But, unfortunately, that mantra has remained a “call to arms” of the financial markets and media “bullish tribes” over the last decade.
There is no shortage of candidates for the title of the most dangerous business idea of the moment. Management-by-algorithm may remove what humanity there is left in the corporate world. The office-less future may dissolve workers into angst-ridden atoms. I want to suggest a less obvious contender for the title: “social purpose.”
The industry has been slammed by a combination of concerns about higher U.S. interest rates, a probable reduction in solar-system subsidies for California homeowners, the broader stock market rotation out of high-growth technology companies and the obstruction of President Joe Biden’s stalled “Build Back Better” agenda by 50 Republicans and two Democrats, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
Walk into a U.S. supermarket, and chances are you’ll see some empty shelves once more. It’s an unwelcome throwback to earlier stages of the pandemic.
Rougher seas lie ahead for non-profit fiduciaries as the COVID-19 pandemic stretches into 2022 and refuses to retreat quietly into the night.
Last week, U.S. Treasury bond yields, climbed back to their pre-pandemic levels.
Just three out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 18, 2022. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a YTD gain of 4.29%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a gain of 3.06%, and London's FTSE 100 is in third with a gain of 2.42%. Coming in last is our own S&P with a loss of 3.97%.
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 31, 2021 close.
This Monday would’ve been Muhammed Ali’s 80th birthday!
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
Since implementing new software, we’ve tripled our conversion rate with new prospects and dramatically shortened our sales cycle.
Many of us fantasize about quitting our jobs. In 2021, more people than ever turned that dream into reality. The latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that 4.53 million Americans voluntarily left their jobs last November. This was both a new monthly record and the eighth successive reading above the pre-pandemic high.
Markets are weird right now. The value of risk-free assets has gone all out of whack, and if that doesn't seem scary, keep reading.
Investors and creators of nonfungible tokens -- a market that has ballooned to $44 billion, Chainalysis data show, and attracted fans from Justin Bieber to Melania Trump -- face billions of dollars in taxes and rates as high as 37%, according to tax experts.
What insights can we glean beyond last year’s impressive 28% return? How did it compare it to global equities? I will show you some of the winners and losers, and finish with a few observations on the VIX.
Howard Marks’s latest memo considers one of investing’s most fundamental questions: when to sell. Howard explains that it’s foolish to sell because prices are up and because they’re down – and why, most of the time, staying invested is ultimately “the most important thing.”
Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks.
The flow of excess cash has returned to normal, but the stock is still quite elevated.
Last year was a good year for stocks, but not bonds. The post-2008 recovery has been spectacular, one of the best 13-year U.S. stock markets. I provide details for the entire 96 years as well as five-year and 10-year sub-periods
Stocks are priced for perfection. Bonds trade at historically low yields despite 7% inflation. What could go wrong?
If we will experience a lower equity risk premium, how much lower of a premium will make stock investing unattractive relative to bonds?
Impact investing seeks to achieve social good, but new research shows that it has had a negligible effect on the cost of capital for so-called “brown” companies.
Few inventions have touched so many lives as the container.
Today I’ll continue the annual forecast I began last week. New COVID developments are unfolding rapidly. If we’re lucky, they may carve out a nice bookend for us. But my worry is that rather than bookends it could be economicus interruptus. 2019 was not portending the most robust of economies. What if, in Groundhog Day fashion, we end up back where we were?
In an economy where the Fed has lost every systematic tether to common sense, empirical evidence, and concern for financial stability, it’s worth beginning this first market comment of 2022 by recalling the ways we’ve adapted in order to navigate that environment.
As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.91% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.1%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -2.29% MoM.
We are just starting earnings season, when companies will be reporting how much money they made in the fourth quarter of last year.
The year ended on a highly upbeat tone for investors as equities rose to new heights against a backdrop of inflation and a prolonged pandemic
With the Q3 GDP Third Estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 206.6%, down from 212.7% the previous quarter.
In our Q3 market commentary, we described the primary economic fears behind a lackluster and trendless market.
First, I am going to cover Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) that I inadvertently left out of my last video.
Capital Growth
Moneyball Investing: Avoiding the Losers in a Portfolio
If you’ve read the book or seen the movie, Moneyball, you may be familiar with the story of Billy Beane and how he and the Oakland A’s revolutionized sports management. By focusing on data rather than the ‘gut feelings’ felt by his scouts, he re-defined what ‘success’ meant in MLB. Now imagine those techniques applied to portfolio management.
Rather than relying on the ‘gut feelings’ of portfolio managers and research analysts, New Age Alpha has re-engineered active stock selection in the same way. Using a systematic and repeatable investment process that aims to avoid the losers rather than pick the winners New Age Alpha aims to deliver better returns with less risk.
New Age Alpha’s goal is to form long-term partnerships by helping advisors build their practice. We recognize the importance of showing your clients something they’ve never seen before. Our methodology and hands-on tool enrich the experience for both client and advisor by easily communicating how a portfolio can benefit from avoiding the losers.
Grow Your Clients’ Wealth With Private Real Estate
According to Preqin, the leading provider of alternative assets data, U.S. real estate funds raised a record $111 billion in equity in 2021, an increase of 35% from 2020 and 16% more than 2019. More investors are allocating to private real estate than ever before, likely because the asset class is poised to rally throughout 2022 while inflation rises, stocks experience continued volatility, and bond returns decrease.
Origin Investments has been laser-focused on private real estate investing for fifteen years. On this webinar, Origin Investments Co-CEO David Scherer will discuss the ways private real estate benefits an investor’s portfolio and why an increasing number of RIAs are allocating to private real estate. Plus, he’ll provide an overview of the diversified multifamily real estate funds that Origin offers to investors.
Richard Bernstein: Valuations Matter and How to Reposition Allocations
Concerns around high equity valuations and rising asset prices are finally manifesting. In this webinar, Richard Bernstein will examine the critical shift in the markets - focusing on the anti-tech trade, cyclicals, consumer staples and other areas where RBA is finding opportunities and isolating risks.
At Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA) we employ a disciplined, top-down approach – we generate alpha by uncovering global investment styles and themes where we believe there are disparities between fundamentals and sentiment. And in current markets, disparities are large.
We seek to beat the market through individual stock selection. We are focused on fundamentals – with particular emphasis on corporate profit cycles rather than economic cycles.
Mr. Bernstein, CEO/CIO of RBA will be addressing key areas that will be important for you and your clients:
Fed’s Message: Get Ready
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve did not make any formal changes to its policy, but did signal it would begin raising the fed funds rate soon.
Jeremy Siegel: Bear Market for Nasdaq; Correction for S&P
The Nasdaq will go into bear market territory and the S&P 500 will suffer a correction, according to Jeremy Siegel.
Inflation Will Hurt Both Stocks and Bonds
The longstanding negative correlation between stock and bond prices is an artifact of the low-inflation environment of the past 30 years.
Pending Home Sales Fell in December
The National Association of Realtors released the December data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales fell in December, denoting two straight months of declines."
The Crypto Crash Strengthens the Case for Crypto
Crypto prices are tumbling. By one account, crypto assets have lost about $1.35 trillion globally since November, with some falling in price by 80% or more. Many investors feel a real pinch.
Where the Billions Pouring Into the Energy Transition Are Going
Energy transition investment follows familiar patterns in global capital markets. Large, established financial institutions supply hundreds of billions of dollars a year to finance construction of long-lived assets using familiar zero-carbon technologies — i.e., deployment.
Value Stocks, U.S. Dollar Among Top Trades After Hawkish Fed
Strategists are mapping out their best trade ideas after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set the stage for raising interest rates to combat the highest inflation since 1982.
Direct Indexing: What Exactly Is It And Why Are So Many Talking About It?
The term direct indexing is somewhat of a misnomer.
12 Stocks in the Industrials Sector
This is the 7th in a series of 11 videos where I will cover each of the 11 sectors looking for value.
Hedge Funds Face New SEC Disclosures as Gensler Cracks Down
Large hedge funds and private-equity firms may soon have to start reporting steep losses, major redemptions and other extraordinary events in near real-time to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission -- a change that the regulator says will help it protect the financial system during meltdowns and wild swings like the meme stock mania that roiled markets a year ago.
Wednesday's Weekly Perspective: January 26, 2022
ICYMI: In this roundup, we’re highlighting the five most popular pieces of content from the previous week.
Investing In Energy Transition: Gray Area Between Green And Brown Economies
Energy sector leaders quickly shifted from the “green” economy in 2020 to the “brown” economy in 2021.
Investment Strategy Commentary: Market Pullback
Spurred by rate hike concerns, geopolitical tensions and more, markets saw a 10% correction intra-day today – find out how that impacts our outlook.
Precautionary Stockpiling and Its Impact on Growth
Companies are buying raw and intermediate goods at a record pace, which we believe will influence economic growth in 2022.
Why Has the Chinese Yuan Been So Strong, Will it Last, and What Does it Mean for the US?
Since May 2020, the Chinese Yuan has defied the path of other emerging market currencies, strengthening by almost 12%.
Quick Thoughts: The Inflation Debate
Disagreements about the outlook for inflation in the new year and beyond continue.
Equity Investment Outlook: The Pandemic’s Long Tail
In our latest outlook we examine the long-term implications of the pandemic, particularly changes to the labor market and the supply chain, and we discuss why we will be focusing on companies with pricing power in 2022.
Market Crash Hands Defeat to Traders Who Warred With Wall Street
Meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, the broader stock market: All have tumbled with astonishing speed this year, and few strategists think the pain will end here.
Buffered Equities and the Risks Facing Retirees
During retirement, deciding how much to withdraw each year from investments can be complicated when both the length of retirement and returns on assets are not known. Unknown longevity presents a tradeoff in which a retiree can either spend generously and risk outliving savings — or spend conservatively and live a less enjoyable retirement. But it is possible to know an outcome before investing. Consider Buffer ETFs™ and other Defined outcome ETFs™ that use options strategies to shape a return
Oil Shakes Off Broader Market Weakness to Rise on Robust Demand
Oil prices rose on Tuesday following the biggest one-day tumble this year, with traders refocusing on the outlook for energy demand and shaking off broader weakness in financial markets.
Ten New Year’s Financial Resolutions Clients Can Keep
I offer my top 10 roster of realizable and important financial resolutions to start your year off on the right foot!
Occidental Petroleum’s Wirth
On April 12, 2019, Chevron (CVX) and its CEO, Mike Wirth, offered $33 billion dollars to buy the common shares of Anadarko Petroleum.
ESG Is a Preference, Not a Strategy
A portfolio’s return is driven by its investment strategy—a set of decisions that governs allocation and timing of capital among the portfolio’s positions.
Volume Analysis Flash Update – Back to Support
In our 2022 Volume Analysis Outlook, the S&P 500 was fresh off new highs exceeding 4800.
1Q 2022 Outlooks from the Calamos Investment Team
Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
Consumer Confidence Fell in January
The headline number of 113.8 was a decrease of 1.4 from the final reading of 115.2 for December.
November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Index up 18.8% YoY
With this morning's release of the November S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.18% increase month over month which is cut to 0.74% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 18.8% YoY increase.
New Black Swan ETF
Last month, Amplify ETFs expanded its suite of BlackSwan ETFs with the launch of the Amplify BlackSwan Tech & Treasury ETF (NYSE Arca: QSWN). QSWN is an index-based ETF that seeks to hedge against significant losses while still participating in technology & growth equities, without an artificial cap.
QSWN is Amplify’s third BlackSwan ETF. The other BlackSwan ETFs, SWAN and ISWN, have together amassed close to $1 billion in assets. Launched in 2018, SWAN has shown to be an attractive risk-managed investment in the marketplace. ISWN is approaching its one-year anniversary and provides access to international equities.
Why Banks' Balance Sheets Are in Better Shape
The COVID-19 pandemic looked set to batter the world’s banks—and yet banks’ balance sheets are now the strongest they’ve been since the global financial crisis (GFC).
Real Estate Is Emerging as a Hedge Against Roaring Inflation
Surging markets spurred a buying frenzy for everything from stocks and cryptocurrencies to new homes over the last two years. Now, with inflation at a nearly 40-year high and at least three priced-in rate hikes, the hunt for investing safe havens is on.
Path to a Living Wage Starts With Companies’ Full Disclosure
U.S. wages are rising after decades of stagnation. And yet, by all indications, income inequality in the U.S. is the highest ever and growing, and tens of millions of full-time workers still fail to earn a living wage.
Worried Traders Make Dash for Stock Liquidity as Selloff Worsens
With the S&P 500 extending its selloff from a recent record to more than 10%, trading is spiking across exchange-traded funds from leveraged strategies tracking technology shares to those betting on market volatility.
U.S. Bank Stocks Trapped in Longest Losing Streak in a Year
U.S. bank stocks are headed for their worst losing streak in a year, burning investors who bought shares on expectations that the Federal Reserve raising rates for the first time since 2018 would boost the sector.
Rate Hikes: The Fed Won’t Hike Nearly As Much As Expected
Rate hikes will be far fewer than the markets currently expect.
Will the Fed Choose Financial Instability or Inflation?
The Fed is walking a tightrope between instability and inflation. Can it successfully tame inflation without causing severe market dislocations?
The ABCs of MLPs: Selecting the Best Product for Your Client
To reap the potential tax benefits of MLP investing and to make sure the allocation is meeting an investor’s needs, it’s important to understand the nuances of MLP investing.
Do Intangible Assets Explain the Failure of the Value Factor?
Is the failure of the value factor over the last decade due to the inability of book value to incorporate so-called “intangible assets,” such as the intellectual property that has propelled companies like Amazon, Alphabet and Apple? New research provides the answer.
An Economist Looks at School, Marriage, Divorce, and Moving in with Your Mom
Laurence Kotlikoff is a world-class economist who can convince you to pay off your mortgage and make you snort out your nose laughing at the same time; Money Magic is his compendium of life hacks aimed at leaving the reader wealthier and happier.
The Shipping Industry Has Never Been So Profitable as It Is Now
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
S&P 500 Snapshot: A Week of Losses
The S&P 500 spent the short holiday week declining, ending down 5.68% from last Friday. The index is 8.3% below its record close and down 7.73% YTD.
Treasury Snapshot: 10-Year Note at 1.75%
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 21, 2022, at 1.75%, the 2-year note ended at 1.01%, and the 30-year at 2.07%.
Weekly Market Snapshot
In his renomination hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the key to maximum sustainable employment and financial stability was keeping inflation low.
The WisdomTree Q1 2022 Economic and Market Outlook in 10 Charts or Less
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise.
Bolstering Asset Allocation Defenses Against COVID-19
The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.
14 Stocks in the Healthcare Sector
This is the 6th in a series of 11 videos where I will cover each of the 11 sectors looking for value.
CB LEI: Rising Trajectory Continues in December
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was up 0.8% from the November final figure of 119.9. Annual revisions were made.
Don’t Panic About Interest Rates
The panic of the day is the news about interest rates.
Zillow Home Value Index: Low Inventory in December, Growing Prices
December's ZHVI came in at $320,662, up 1.4% from the previous month and up 19.6% YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.97% MoM and 15.2% YoY.
Let The Wild Rumpus Begin
All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend.
ETF Trends to Watch in 2022: Conversions, International Interest and Sustainable Funds
With January being a month for prognostications, David Mann, our Head of Global Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) Capital Markets, shares his annual outlook for the ETF industry and key trends he sees taking shape in 2022.
Existing-Home Sales: Down 6% from November and 8.3% YoY
This morning's release of the December Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million units from the previous month's 6.49 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 6.44 million. The latest number represents a 6% decrease from the previous month and an 8.3% decrease YoY.
Markets Tremble at Fed’s Unprecedented Double-Edged Tightening
A rapid one-two punch of interest-rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction from the Federal Reserve risks unsettling bond and stock markets that have already taken a beating.
Beware the Crosscurrents in Small Caps
Small cap equity (as measured by the Russell 2000® Index) had its best two quarters of performance on record in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. However, small caps have failed to break out in a sustained way since their February 2021 peak despite strong earnings results. Mixed signals from macroeconomic data and sentiment indicators appear to have investors on edge. Portfolio managers from Carillon’s diverse affiliates sort potential risks from areas of opportunity in the dynamic small cap space.
Margin Debt: Down 0.93% in December
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through December. The latest debt level is down 0.93% month-over-month.
Outlook 2022: Polar Opposites
There are three pillars of investing for us at Smead Capital Management.
“Don’t Fight The Fed”
“Don’t Fight The Fed.” But, unfortunately, that mantra has remained a “call to arms” of the financial markets and media “bullish tribes” over the last decade.
Business Doesn’t Need a ‘Social Purpose’ Revolution
There is no shortage of candidates for the title of the most dangerous business idea of the moment. Management-by-algorithm may remove what humanity there is left in the corporate world. The office-less future may dissolve workers into angst-ridden atoms. I want to suggest a less obvious contender for the title: “social purpose.”
Battered Clean Energy Stocks May Soon Recover
The industry has been slammed by a combination of concerns about higher U.S. interest rates, a probable reduction in solar-system subsidies for California homeowners, the broader stock market rotation out of high-growth technology companies and the obstruction of President Joe Biden’s stalled “Build Back Better” agenda by 50 Republicans and two Democrats, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
Why Are U.S. Grocery Shelves Out of Everything Again?
Walk into a U.S. supermarket, and chances are you’ll see some empty shelves once more. It’s an unwelcome throwback to earlier stages of the pandemic.
The 2022 List Issue, Part 5: 4 Steps for Non-Profit Fiduciaries to Consider This Year
Rougher seas lie ahead for non-profit fiduciaries as the COVID-19 pandemic stretches into 2022 and refuses to retreat quietly into the night.
What Do Rising Rates Mean for Stock Investors?
Last week, U.S. Treasury bond yields, climbed back to their pre-pandemic levels.
World Markets Update: January 18, 2022
Just three out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through January 18, 2022. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a YTD gain of 4.29%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a gain of 3.06%, and London's FTSE 100 is in third with a gain of 2.42%. Coming in last is our own S&P with a loss of 3.97%.
The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the December 31, 2021 close.
Weekly Investment Strategy
This Monday would’ve been Muhammed Ali’s 80th birthday!
Total Return Outlook: We Have Liftoff!
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
How Proving Your Planning Value Upfront Boosts Prospect Conversion Rates
Since implementing new software, we’ve tripled our conversion rate with new prospects and dramatically shortened our sales cycle.
Can You Afford to Join the Great Resignation?
Many of us fantasize about quitting our jobs. In 2021, more people than ever turned that dream into reality. The latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that 4.53 million Americans voluntarily left their jobs last November. This was both a new monthly record and the eighth successive reading above the pre-pandemic high.
How Safe Assets Became Investors' Biggest Risk
Markets are weird right now. The value of risk-free assets has gone all out of whack, and if that doesn't seem scary, keep reading.
NFT Investors Owe Billions in Taxes and IRS Sets Sights on Evaders
Investors and creators of nonfungible tokens -- a market that has ballooned to $44 billion, Chainalysis data show, and attracted fans from Justin Bieber to Melania Trump -- face billions of dollars in taxes and rates as high as 37%, according to tax experts.
Deep Analytic Market Insights for 2021
What insights can we glean beyond last year’s impressive 28% return? How did it compare it to global equities? I will show you some of the winners and losers, and finish with a few observations on the VIX.
Selling Out
Howard Marks’s latest memo considers one of investing’s most fundamental questions: when to sell. Howard explains that it’s foolish to sell because prices are up and because they’re down – and why, most of the time, staying invested is ultimately “the most important thing.”
“Passive ETFs” Are Hiding The Bear Market
Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks.
Last Year's Saving Is This Year’s Spending
The flow of excess cash has returned to normal, but the stock is still quite elevated.
Nine Charts Summarizing the 96-Year Capital Markets History
Last year was a good year for stocks, but not bonds. The post-2008 recovery has been spectacular, one of the best 13-year U.S. stock markets. I provide details for the entire 96 years as well as five-year and 10-year sub-periods
2022 Investment Outlook (Part 2) – Stocks and Bonds
Stocks are priced for perfection. Bonds trade at historically low yields despite 7% inflation. What could go wrong?
Is It Still Worth Investing in Stocks?
If we will experience a lower equity risk premium, how much lower of a premium will make stock investing unattractive relative to bonds?
The Dubious Financial Impact of Impact Investing
Impact investing seeks to achieve social good, but new research shows that it has had a negligible effect on the cost of capital for so-called “brown” companies.
Consider the Humble Shipping Container
Few inventions have touched so many lives as the container.
Year of the Bookends
Today I’ll continue the annual forecast I began last week. New COVID developments are unfolding rapidly. If we’re lucky, they may carve out a nice bookend for us. But my worry is that rather than bookends it could be economicus interruptus. 2019 was not portending the most robust of economies. What if, in Groundhog Day fashion, we end up back where we were?
Return-Free Risk
In an economy where the Fed has lost every systematic tether to common sense, empirical evidence, and concern for financial stability, it’s worth beginning this first market comment of 2022 by recalling the ways we’ve adapted in order to navigate that environment.
Strategic Income Outlook: One Heck of a Year
As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.
Retail Sales Down 1.9% in December, Up 16.9% YoY
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -1.91% month-over-month to two decimals and was below the Investing.com forecast of -0.1%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -2.29% MoM.
A Preview of Q4 2021 Earnings
We are just starting earnings season, when companies will be reporting how much money they made in the fourth quarter of last year.
Q4 2021: “Tracking the Recovery: Inflationary Pressure a Symptom Not the Cause”
The year ended on a highly upbeat tone for investors as equities rose to new heights against a backdrop of inflation and a prolonged pandemic
Market Cap to GDP: December Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the Q3 GDP Third Estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 206.6%, down from 212.7% the previous quarter.
The Long and Winding Road That Leads to ‘Normal’
In our Q3 market commentary, we described the primary economic fears behind a lackluster and trendless market.
4 Stocks To Buy In The Energy Sector | FAST Graphs
First, I am going to cover Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) that I inadvertently left out of my last video.