The Fed’s move towards more restrictive policy has rattled bonds and put equities on the brink of a bear market. But what is priced in and where do we go from here? In this month’s webinar, we discuss equity and fixed income valuations and examine how Innovator ETFs can help advisors hedge market risk and capitalize on opportunities.
Vitaliy Katsenelson will share his outlook for the economy and his approach to active stock management.
After nearly a decade of outperformance by US stocks, the tide may be turning as the world faces new challenges in this post-pandemic environment. Get insights into non-US markets in an insightful discussion featuring Grady Burkett, CFA, and Krishna Mohanraj, CFA, international equity portfolio managers from Diamond Hill. This informative session will explore Grady and Krishna’s perspectives on why investing in non-US markets today may be beneficial for long-term results and how investors can position themselves for success in this environment. Thoughts on the war in Ukraine and an update on global supply chain headwinds will also be given
New research shows that the significant outperformance of ESG-driven investing over the last decade was due to a sharp increase in concern among investors for climate-related issues. Whether that outperformance continues will depend on even more heightened concerns over the environment.
Incorporating a wide variety of portfolio risk mitigation techniques is essential to address unforeseeable macroeconomic challenges.
An allegation has been floated recently that inflation has been exacerbated by corporate greed. A neologism has even been coined for it, “greedflation.” The claim has been backed up by anecdotal and empirical data and it has been rebutted by anecdotal and empirical data. I will not try to answer the question of whether this allegation is true, but how its truth should be determined.
All told, the world’s 500 richest people lost $1.4 trillion in the first half of 2022, a dizzying decline that marks the steepest six-month drop ever for the global billionaire class.
The turn in the US housing market has been sharp and swift.
Treasuries began the second half of the year on the front foot Friday as concerns continued to mount that Federal Reserve rate hikes will lead to a recession.
To state the obvious, it has been a good time to be short the market. But the success of bearish traders in 2022 goes beyond luck.
The first half of 2022 brought a brutal selloff to emerging markets, but also fueled hope for the second half: stocks, bonds and currencies have begun to outperform their peers in the US.
After attracting crypto firms, property investors and Russian billionaires, Dubai is drawing a new crowd: hedge fund managers.
No doubt about it, this has been a very challenging market environment to navigate, and we look to be in for more of the same. The Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy, and the longer the conflict in Ukraine persists, the longer we’ll likely feel the pressure from elevated gas prices.
Let’s start with a basic question. If you have unused property—cash or anything else—why would you lend it to another party?
The S&P 500 declined four out of five days this week, ending Friday higher than all but Monday's close. The index is down 19.7% YTD and is 20.25% below its record close - that makes four consecutive "bear" days and twelve of the last 19.
Quick take: Based on the June S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 124% above its arithmetic mean and at the 98th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.
It took me a long, long time to write The End of Indexing.
Global risk assets were at the epicenter of a selling spree Friday as investors kicked off the second half of the year with recession concern front and center.
In an inflation-lashed world where bonds are posting record losses, Wall Street issuers are betting investors hungry for income will instead lavish their millions on ETFs that ride stocks in order to deliver payouts.
Airbus SE won one of its biggest-ever orders for 292 airliners worth more than $37 billion from four Chinese airlines, a coup for the European manufacturer as it tussles with Boeing Co. for dominance in Asia’s largest economy.
There may be signs the overheated housing market is cooling, but many buyers still feel like it’s near-impossible to get a house without an all-cash offer, or something close to it.
“HODL,” an original misspelling taken on as a badge of courage by cryptocurrency investors, spread to “Meme stocks” during the runup in 2020 and 2021.
How quickly the narrative has shifted back and forth in the money and bond markets.
The June US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 52.7, down 4.3 from the final May figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Valid until the market close on July 29, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed June with a monthly loss of 8.39% after a micro-fractional gain of 0.01% in May. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
In the light of multiple discussions raised in AP community about strategies that help investors through market downturns, we would like to share a perspective on advantages of an active asset management approach or so-called actively traded hedge-fund strategy based on the example of a classic long-short US equity strategy.
The crypto investing front has taken another barrage of body blows, pushing Bitcoin to test the $19,000 per coin level once again.
With consumer behavior under a magnifying glass, Portfolio Manager Jennifer Thomas, shares her assessment of the US consumer.
There is ample reason to worry that major economies like the United States are heading for a recession, accompanied by cascading financial turmoil.
It’s official: Chinese equities are once again in vogue, after months of regulatory crackdowns, deleveraging and stringent virus curbs wiped trillions of dollars off benchmark gauges.
Soon-to-be retirees are reevaluating things like when to stop working, whether they should move and how to strategize their spending.
Zoom Video Communications Inc. is navigating life after the pandemic by acting like the past two years never happened.
Skeptics have long made a sport of predicting that the decade-long rally in technology stocks was destined to reverse. At the halfway point of 2022, it seems like this is the year when they will be proven right.
In April of this year, the FlexShares team at Northern Trust conducted a survey of more than 500 high-net worth investors who work with financial advisors. The survey asked investors a range of questions about ESG investing including, but not limited to: how much they understand it, why they are or aren’t interested, whether their advisors are recommending it, and how and where they’re learning about ESG investing. My guest today will explain how she and her team used the data to identify trends across different generations, genders, and wealth brackets when it comes to ESG investing.
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 29, 2022, at 3.10%, the 2-year note ended at 3.06%, and the 30-year at 3.22%.
Now is the time to engage in risk management to retain your competitive advantage once the economy emerges from the slowdown.
A pair of exchange-traded funds that seek to capitalize on the tendency for US stocks to log the bulk of their gains when the cash market is shut are set to launch Tuesday.
The Federal Reserve was in denial about inflation and moved too slowly in trying to quell rising prices. That’s now put it on a trajectory to create a recession, if it hasn’t already done so.
Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud-storage business is on a clear path toward a $3 trillion value...
The good news is that yields in US Treasury securities may be near their peak. The bad news is that makes the recession I’ve been forecasting since February more likely.
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility.
We examine key themes from our review of advisor fixed income portfolios over the past year.
After the steep drop in prices during the first half of this year, yields on many corporate bond investments are at or near 12-year highs.
As I have indicated in recent weeks, I don’t really understand why the media has turned so bearish on the US economy lately, and why so many forecasters are predicting we’re either just about to enter a potentially nasty recession or we’re already in one.
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
US energy stocks are outperforming consumer discretionary stocks by the widest margin in more than 30 years. Does this mean surging energy prices will trigger a deep freeze in consumer spending?
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
Someone once said, “Better than being smart is knowing who is!”
It came as a surprise when I found the annual report of the New Zealand SuperFund. While no one could fault it for sticking with passive investments, it chose a different path, with stunning results.
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Wall Street analysts are sticking with their bullish earnings forecasts for this quarter, and Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett says they need a reality check.
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Here are three lessons about the cognitive biases advisors need to be aware of as the trusted protectors of their clients’ financial futures.
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through June 27, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD loss of 1.71%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a loss of 4.99% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a loss of 6.67%. Coming in last is Germany's DAXK with a loss of 19.6% YTD.
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy answers some key questions about the European Central Bank's latest moves.
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. The latest debt level is down 2.6% month-over-month.
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund has posted its longest streak of inflows in over a year as it fights back from an interest rate hike-fueled decline.
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
Contrary to economic theory, in recent years funds with an ESG mandate have outperformed the broader market. New research shows that outperformance was caused by increased asset flows to so-called green stocks, raising the prospects for lower returns going forward.
Sustainable investing needs to adapt to new realities without compromising its core principles.
This bear market is punishing everyone and everything.
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
For years, investors valued Facebook’s parent company as if its growth would never falter. Now that it has, fund managers who buy cheap, out-of-favor stocks are finally getting a chance to own shares of Meta Platforms Inc.
Surging mortgage rates have finally cooled off the housing market. The cooldown, though, is coming unevenly, accentuating differences between the existing home market and new construction.
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Crypto curious stock investors are taking little comfort in the rebound in the shares of companies linked to the digital-asset world in the past week, with the sector underperforming just about every other risky corner of the financial markets this year by a wide margin.
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Pipe down for a second Elon, the hottest things in the auto industry — the most electric electrics — now come from Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp.
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
In a new piece, GMO’s Asset Allocation Team notes that even with the battering of growth stocks in 2022 there is still ample opportunity to benefit from betting on cheap value stocks versus expensive growth names.
Ken Griffin just set a new standard for Wall Street firms looking to make the move south.
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
In this video I cover 20 stocks requested by subscribers.
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
Capital Growth
Tackling restrictive Fed policy, inflation and a recessionary sentiment with Defined Outcome ETFs
The Fed’s move towards more restrictive policy has rattled bonds and put equities on the brink of a bear market. But what is priced in and where do we go from here? In this month’s webinar, we discuss equity and fixed income valuations and examine how Innovator ETFs can help advisors hedge market risk and capitalize on opportunities.
The Outlook for the Economy and Active Management – Vitaliy Katsenelson
Vitaliy Katsenelson will share his outlook for the economy and his approach to active stock management.
The Case for Non-US Investing
After nearly a decade of outperformance by US stocks, the tide may be turning as the world faces new challenges in this post-pandemic environment. Get insights into non-US markets in an insightful discussion featuring Grady Burkett, CFA, and Krishna Mohanraj, CFA, international equity portfolio managers from Diamond Hill. This informative session will explore Grady and Krishna’s perspectives on why investing in non-US markets today may be beneficial for long-term results and how investors can position themselves for success in this environment. Thoughts on the war in Ukraine and an update on global supply chain headwinds will also be given
Don’t Count on ESG Outperformance
New research shows that the significant outperformance of ESG-driven investing over the last decade was due to a sharp increase in concern among investors for climate-related issues. Whether that outperformance continues will depend on even more heightened concerns over the environment.
Prepared For Anything
Incorporating a wide variety of portfolio risk mitigation techniques is essential to address unforeseeable macroeconomic challenges.
Is “Greedflation” Real – and How Should that Question be Answered?
An allegation has been floated recently that inflation has been exacerbated by corporate greed. A neologism has even been coined for it, “greedflation.” The claim has been backed up by anecdotal and empirical data and it has been rebutted by anecdotal and empirical data. I will not try to answer the question of whether this allegation is true, but how its truth should be determined.
Richest Billionaires Lose $1.4 Trillion in Worst Half-Year Ever
All told, the world’s 500 richest people lost $1.4 trillion in the first half of 2022, a dizzying decline that marks the steepest six-month drop ever for the global billionaire class.
Home Sellers Are Slashing Prices in Sudden Halt to Pandemic Boom
The turn in the US housing market has been sharp and swift.
Recession Fears Bolster Treasuries, Short-End Yields Plunge
Treasuries began the second half of the year on the front foot Friday as concerns continued to mount that Federal Reserve rate hikes will lead to a recession.
Bears Picked Right Stocks to Short With Declines Twice the S&P’s
To state the obvious, it has been a good time to be short the market. But the success of bearish traders in 2022 goes beyond luck.
Historic Rout in Emerging Markets Sows Seeds of Outperformance
The first half of 2022 brought a brutal selloff to emerging markets, but also fueled hope for the second half: stocks, bonds and currencies have begun to outperform their peers in the US.
Dubai Is the Newest Hedge Fund Hotspot
After attracting crypto firms, property investors and Russian billionaires, Dubai is drawing a new crowd: hedge fund managers.
Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide
No doubt about it, this has been a very challenging market environment to navigate, and we look to be in for more of the same. The Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy, and the longer the conflict in Ukraine persists, the longer we’ll likely feel the pressure from elevated gas prices.
Time Has a Price
Let’s start with a basic question. If you have unused property—cash or anything else—why would you lend it to another party?
S&P 500 Snapshot: Down Again
The S&P 500 declined four out of five days this week, ending Friday higher than all but Monday's close. The index is down 19.7% YTD and is 20.25% below its record close - that makes four consecutive "bear" days and twelve of the last 19.
Crestmont Market Valuation Update: June 2022
Quick take: Based on the June S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 124% above its arithmetic mean and at the 98th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.
The End of Indexing
It took me a long, long time to write The End of Indexing.
Ditch Risk Is the Second Half Mantra as Recession Spooks Traders
Global risk assets were at the epicenter of a selling spree Friday as investors kicked off the second half of the year with recession concern front and center.
Existential Crisis in Bonds Fuels Wall Street’s Income ETF Boom
In an inflation-lashed world where bonds are posting record losses, Wall Street issuers are betting investors hungry for income will instead lavish their millions on ETFs that ride stocks in order to deliver payouts.
Airbus Wins $37 Billion China Jet Deals in Blow to Boeing
Airbus SE won one of its biggest-ever orders for 292 airliners worth more than $37 billion from four Chinese airlines, a coup for the European manufacturer as it tussles with Boeing Co. for dominance in Asia’s largest economy.
A 3% Mortgage? Leveraging Your Stocks to Buy a Home
There may be signs the overheated housing market is cooling, but many buyers still feel like it’s near-impossible to get a house without an all-cash offer, or something close to it.
“HODL” Finds Its Inevitable Flaw
“HODL,” an original misspelling taken on as a badge of courage by cryptocurrency investors, spread to “Meme stocks” during the runup in 2020 and 2021.
Looking for Recession Clues in All the Wrong Places?
How quickly the narrative has shifted back and forth in the money and bond markets.
June Markit Manufacturing: Lowest Since Oct 2020
The June US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 52.7, down 4.3 from the final May figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Moving Averages: S&P Down 8.4% in June
Valid until the market close on July 29, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed June with a monthly loss of 8.39% after a micro-fractional gain of 0.01% in May. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
Safer With an Active Asset Management Approach Than with None or a Passive One
In the light of multiple discussions raised in AP community about strategies that help investors through market downturns, we would like to share a perspective on advantages of an active asset management approach or so-called actively traded hedge-fund strategy based on the example of a classic long-short US equity strategy.
Bitcoin Tests $19,000
The crypto investing front has taken another barrage of body blows, pushing Bitcoin to test the $19,000 per coin level once again.
Taking the Consumer’s Temperature
With consumer behavior under a magnifying glass, Portfolio Manager Jennifer Thomas, shares her assessment of the US consumer.
A Stagflationary Debt Crisis Looms
There is ample reason to worry that major economies like the United States are heading for a recession, accompanied by cascading financial turmoil.
China’s World-Beating Stock Rally Is Forecast to Strengthen More
It’s official: Chinese equities are once again in vogue, after months of regulatory crackdowns, deleveraging and stringent virus curbs wiped trillions of dollars off benchmark gauges.
Now What? Advice for Retiring Into a Recession
Soon-to-be retirees are reevaluating things like when to stop working, whether they should move and how to strategize their spending.
Zoom Bets on Corporate Customers to Stem Post-Pandemic Crash
Zoom Video Communications Inc. is navigating life after the pandemic by acting like the past two years never happened.
Technology Stocks Head for Historic Wipeout as US Economy Cools
Skeptics have long made a sport of predicting that the decade-long rally in technology stocks was destined to reverse. At the halfway point of 2022, it seems like this is the year when they will be proven right.
What HNW Investors are Saying About ESG
In April of this year, the FlexShares team at Northern Trust conducted a survey of more than 500 high-net worth investors who work with financial advisors. The survey asked investors a range of questions about ESG investing including, but not limited to: how much they understand it, why they are or aren’t interested, whether their advisors are recommending it, and how and where they’re learning about ESG investing. My guest today will explain how she and her team used the data to identify trends across different generations, genders, and wealth brackets when it comes to ESG investing.
Moving Averages Month-End Preview: Down 7.6% in June
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
Treasury Snapshot: 2-10 Spread at 0.04%
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 29, 2022, at 3.10%, the 2-year note ended at 3.06%, and the 30-year at 3.22%.
No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession
Now is the time to engage in risk management to retain your competitive advantage once the economy emerges from the slowdown.
ETFs Offering Way to Bet on Overnight Equity Gains Set to Launch
A pair of exchange-traded funds that seek to capitalize on the tendency for US stocks to log the bulk of their gains when the cash market is shut are set to launch Tuesday.
Time to Start Preparing for a Recession Is Now, Rob Arnott Says
The Federal Reserve was in denial about inflation and moved too slowly in trying to quell rising prices. That’s now put it on a trajectory to create a recession, if it hasn’t already done so.
Amazon Cloud Unit on Course for $3 Trillion Value, Redburn Says
Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud-storage business is on a clear path toward a $3 trillion value...
Bond Market Rebound Is Bad News for the Economy
The good news is that yields in US Treasury securities may be near their peak. The bad news is that makes the recession I’ve been forecasting since February more likely.
2022 Global Market Outlook – Q3 update: Fear of the known
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility.
Key Takeaways From Our 2021 Advisor Fixed Income Portfolio Review
We examine key themes from our review of advisor fixed income portfolios over the past year.
2022 Mid-Year Corporate Credit Outlook
After the steep drop in prices during the first half of this year, yields on many corporate bond investments are at or near 12-year highs.
Are We Talking Ourselves Into A Recession?
As I have indicated in recent weeks, I don’t really understand why the media has turned so bearish on the US economy lately, and why so many forecasters are predicting we’re either just about to enter a potentially nasty recession or we’re already in one.
Don't Fight the Trend
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
High-Yielding High-Quality Dividend Growth Stock Benefiting from Rising Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
More “Stagflation-Lite”, Moderately Positive On Equities Ex Europe, Still Negative On Global Bonds
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
Energy Crunch vs. Consumer Freeze: What Are Stocks Signaling?
US energy stocks are outperforming consumer discretionary stocks by the widest margin in more than 30 years. Does this mean surging energy prices will trigger a deep freeze in consumer spending?
3 Charts Showing Optimism For The Global Shipping Industry
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
Time to Jump Aboard the Value Train
The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this.
Buffett, Jones and Hamm: An Oil Wisdom Trifecta
Someone once said, “Better than being smart is knowing who is!”
How a New Zealand Superfund “Beat the Market”
It came as a surprise when I found the annual report of the New Zealand SuperFund. While no one could fault it for sticking with passive investments, it chose a different path, with stunning results.
Consumer Confidence Down Again in June
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Morgan Stanley’s Shalett Says Analysts Are ‘Deer in Headlights’
Wall Street analysts are sticking with their bullish earnings forecasts for this quarter, and Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett says they need a reality check.
Some Unsolicited Recession Survival Advice to Gen Z
Our economy is in a will-they-won’t-they relationship with the next big recession.
Mortgage Lenders Turn ‘Desperate’ as Soaring Rates Roil Industry
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Up 20% YoY
With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% YoY increase.
Three Lessons About Cognitive Biases
Here are three lessons about the cognitive biases advisors need to be aware of as the trusted protectors of their clients’ financial futures.
A $2 Trillion Free-Fall Rattles Crypto to the Core
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
World Markets Update: June 27, 2022
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through June 27, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD loss of 1.71%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a loss of 4.99% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a loss of 6.67%. Coming in last is Germany's DAXK with a loss of 19.6% YTD.
Oil Price Reversions – The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
ECB in the News
Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy answers some key questions about the European Central Bank's latest moves.
Re-discovering the Market’s Sweet Spot
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
Margin Debt: Down 2.6% in May
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. The latest debt level is down 2.6% month-over-month.
Cathie Wood’s ARKK Posts Longest Inflow Streak in Over a Year
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund has posted its longest streak of inflows in over a year as it fights back from an interest rate hike-fueled decline.
A Deep Analytic Perspective of the 2022 Market Correction
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
An Ominous Sign for ESG Investors
Contrary to economic theory, in recent years funds with an ESG mandate have outperformed the broader market. New research shows that outperformance was caused by increased asset flows to so-called green stocks, raising the prospects for lower returns going forward.
Of War And ESG
Sustainable investing needs to adapt to new realities without compromising its core principles.
I Haven't Seen Bargains This Good in 20 Years
This bear market is punishing everyone and everything.
Pending Home Sales Edged Up in May
The National Association of Realtors released the May data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines."
Meta Plunge Lures Value Buyers as Growth Funds Flee
For years, investors valued Facebook’s parent company as if its growth would never falter. Now that it has, fund managers who buy cheap, out-of-favor stocks are finally getting a chance to own shares of Meta Platforms Inc.
Homebuilders Still Find Plenty of Demand in a Cooling Market
Surging mortgage rates have finally cooled off the housing market. The cooldown, though, is coming unevenly, accentuating differences between the existing home market and new construction.
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Crypto Stocks Show Why They’re Among the Riskiest of Risk Assets
Crypto curious stock investors are taking little comfort in the rebound in the shares of companies linked to the digital-asset world in the past week, with the sector underperforming just about every other risky corner of the financial markets this year by a wide margin.
Market Is Shredding All the Time-Tested Ways to Chart Its Course
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Sorry Elon Musk. Hyundai Is Quietly Dominating the EV Race
Pipe down for a second Elon, the hottest things in the auto industry — the most electric electrics — now come from Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp.
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Banks Ace Fed Stress Tests, Pave Way for Shareholder Payouts
Wall Street’s biggest banks are set to return tens of billions of dollars to investors after all the lenders passed the Federal Reserve’s annual test of their ability to withstand market turmoil.
Taking Stock: Q3 2022 Equity Market Outlook
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies?
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
Time To Jump Aboard The Value Train
In a new piece, GMO’s Asset Allocation Team notes that even with the battering of growth stocks in 2022 there is still ample opportunity to benefit from betting on cheap value stocks versus expensive growth names.
Wall Street South Gets Biggest Win in Griffin’s Grand Miami Plan
Ken Griffin just set a new standard for Wall Street firms looking to make the move south.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Stocks Adding to Weekly Gains
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
20 Stocks Subscribers Asked To Have Analyzed
In this video I cover 20 stocks requested by subscribers.
Stocks Sniffing A Bear Market Rally
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
Wall Street Faces Billion-Dollar Losses on Sinking Buyout Debt
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.