Tax Planning

The U.S. may not walk back all of the new tariffs.

The early-April announcement of a broad new round of tariffs against virtually all U.S. trading partners—followed by a pause for many of them—has triggered a tidal shift in the global economy. Uncertainty created by tariff negotiations, as well as burgeoning federal debt levels and other ongoing concerns, has far-reaching economic implications, leading us to reassess our 2025 outlook.

Tariff talk has been at a fever pitch for the past three months. Its dominance of the news cycle has crowded out discussion of other important economic issues, such as the sustainability of America’s national debt.

The roller coaster continues! A stronger than expected first quarter earnings season and encouraging signs on the trade front—highlighted by the US-UK trade deal—helped lift the S&P 500 from its April 8 near-bear market lows, reversing nearly all post-Liberation Day (April 2) losses.

It may seem risky to lend against recurring revenues, not earnings. With proper underwriting, it doesn’t have to be.

China and the U.S. conducted their first formal trade talks of 2025 over the weekend. And on Monday, May 12, they announced the outcome of their negotiations.

The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.

The Q1 2025 earnings season heads into its final peak week with mostly positive results from S&P 500 companies thus far. With 90% of companies from the index now reporting, 78% have beaten Wall Street’s expectations, slightly better than what we’ve seen historically.

For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.

Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income at WisdomTree, joined a VettaFi panel to break down the most attractive fixed income strategies.

Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.

I’ve been writing about tariffs for a couple of months now, focusing mostly on the macroeconomic harm and the costs they impose on small businesses. Today I want to consider something else: the new risks they are adding to the financial system alongside the old risks.

Warren Buffett opened his 60th—and final as CEO—Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting with the same understated clarity that has defined his career: "This is my 60th annual meeting... I think it'll be the best yet."

When navigating the unknown, an experienced guide can ensure you don’t veer off the path to your chosen destination, can prevent you from stumbling across hazards, and ensure you have the tools you need to finish the journey safely and soundly.

Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.

At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.

China drove the surge in retail investment demand, charting the second strongest quarter on record.

Preparing for retirement involves more than finances and should include a focus on health, wellbeing and goals. Our Mike Dullaghan explains why it’s important to start preparing 10 years ahead of retirement.

The federal government recently resumed student loan collections after a multi-year pause. This affects millions of borrowers who have been in forbearance since March 2020. Our Bill Cass outlines some options for borrowers in default.

The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of slowing economic growth and higher inflation have risen.

As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.

The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while emphasizing that elevated uncertainty has clouded the path forward. If, when, and how much tariff policy will change in the months to come will play a large part in dictating the next move for the Fed.

Elite golf is a mental game as much as physical—and so is investing. This year’s Masters tournament was one of the most compelling I have ever witnessed, and Rory McIlroy’s long-awaited playoff victory contains a number of life lessons that are relevant for investors.

Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping the level for overnight money 100 basis points (bps) below last year’s peak reading.

S&P 500^® earnings per share estimates have come down sharply. According to FactSet, calendar year 2025 is now expected to show $266 in operating EPS for the Index.

The current geopolitical climate has injected an extra dose of unpredictability into the economy.

“Compounding” is a word often used among investors to describe what they hope to achieve for their capital. Compounding is invoked so frequently that one would think it was the standard aim and practice among investors.

Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.

After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.

Market headlines may change daily, but the role of a financial advisor remains remarkably consistent: to be the calm in the storm, the strategist with a plan and—most importantly—the voice of reason when clients need it most.

Over years, the US cemented its position as an exceptional source of earnings growth that fueled outsize equity returns. Many investors are now questioning whether the US will retain its advantages as President Trump’s trade policies add uncertainty to the outlook across industries.

When I was much younger, I worked as a bond salesman for a small regional bank in the southwest. I sold some short-term T-bills to yield 17% and some ten-year T-bonds to yield 14%. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman at the time, had reduced inflation dramatically but the bond market had not yet accepted that new reality and kept interest rates very high for a while after Volker achieved his lower level of inflation.

In light of the announcement that Warren Buffett is stepping down, we thought it very useful to share some of the keynote talk I did at the University of Nebraska-Omaha Business School last Friday night (thanks to its wonderful director, Robert Miles).

May 8, VettaFi will host an Income Investment Strategy Symposium. Income is top of mind for many investors.

Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.

Roughly a month on from Liberation Day one thing is clear: While actual tariff numbers may not be set, markets have certainly been liberated from complacency. S

For investors looking to add bonds, muni bonds remain an attractive option for an ideal blend of yield and stability.

A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.

In recent times, central bank independence has been taken as gospel. Political pressure for easy money contributed to extremes of inflation in the 1970s.

The uncertainty around US tariff policy has significantly increased US equity volatility.

One of the advantages of individual bonds is the ability to custom-select bonds that fit individual needs and/or goals

Results from some of the Magnificent 7 names last week reignited the AI trade. Both Meta and Microsoft reported after-the-bell on Wednesday, blowing past analyst estimates

If you’ve been inside a Walmart, Target or Home Depot in the past week, you may not realize that a trade war is underway between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. Store shelves are well stocked, and prices have largely held steady.

This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.

The GDP report for the first quarter of the year showed a very engaged business sector as it rushed to try to minimize, as much as possible, the future impact of higher tariffs.

April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.

Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.

For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.

The markets today move at breakneck speed. In fact, if you’ve been watching your 401(k) the past month, you might have gotten whiplash.

Uncertainty reigned through April and likely will continue to do so, at least in the near term. Markets have reacted, both negatively and positively, to every headline coming out of Washington.

Businesses may face challenges but there are also a number of tax-smart strategies that can help mitigate tax liability and enhance efficiency. Our Bill Cass discusses several tax-smart strategies to consider.

In the early years of the artificial intelligence (AI) race, performance benchmarks told a clear story: a handful of frontier models, developed by a few dominant labs, consistently outperformed the rest. In 2024, that changed.

Sustainable adjustments to trade imbalances require supportive monetary and fiscal policies – not just currency intervention.

Vanguard is well-known for making investing more accessible, affordable, and efficient for investors over the past 50 years.