A recent Gallup poll shows gold just passed stocks as Americans’ favorite long-term investment. We explore why it might deserve the top spot.
Technology and trends have made individual investors an important part of the private market.
Emirates Global Aluminium plans to start building a $4 billion plant in Oklahoma next year as Donald Trump pushes for massive investments from oil-rich Gulf states to avoid his tariffs.
529 plans provide tax benefits, estate planning advantages, and flexible education savings. Our Bill Cass explains how 529 plans can be part of an estate planning strategy.
We maintain a focus on resiliency as elevated yields within high quality fixed income continue to offer attractive opportunities.
After a brief reprieve from all the recession talk while the Fed was raising rates to decades-old high watermarks, the ‘R’ word has come back into vogue once again post-Liberation day.
On Monday, the U.S. and China announced they will temporarily suspend the high import tariffs they imposed on each other earlier this year.
Builder confidence fell sharply in May as uncertainty stemming from elevated rates, tariffs, building costs, and the cloudy economic outlook dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 18 months.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief of global markets strategy said the US could dodge a recession as the probability of that scenario has decreased following better clarity over global trade.
Keeping your financial plan aligned with your goals, risk tolerance and time horizon.
Our overarching theme for U.S. fixed income has been, and will continue to be, based on the premise that interest rates will stay at more historically “normal” levels, but that, within this backdrop, investors will face heightened volatility.
China has been a focal point of American trade policy for many years, but tensions were escalated early in the second Trump term.
When volatility ripped through markets last month, many investors scrambled to respond. Some wanted to quickly adjust specific security exposures. Others wanted to flee to cash or build in protection against additional downside moves. And some rushed to buy the dip.
Certificates of deposit (CDs) and Treasuries both can offer steady, predictable investment income—but how to decide between them? Here are five factors to help you choose.
Are you trying to grow a stable team of advisors and retain top talent? Young advisors are looking for RIA firms that offer remote work flexibility, a clear path toward advancement and role transparency.
To help exemplify the importance of UX, I’m breaking down a few of the most common UX myths, along with the top recommendations to avoid the pitfalls associated with them.
The U.S. may not walk back all of the new tariffs.
While the U.S. and U.K. have different economic and regulatory landscapes, there are clear opportunities for the U.S. to improve retirement readiness by adopting some best practices from across the pond.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a fourth straight month, falling to 95.8 in April. Notably, the percent of small business owners who reported difficulty filling job openings fell to its lowest level since January 2021.
Inflation cooled for a third straight month in April, hitting its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.4% in March and lower than the expected 2.4% growth.
The early-April announcement of a broad new round of tariffs against virtually all U.S. trading partners—followed by a pause for many of them—has triggered a tidal shift in the global economy. Uncertainty created by tariff negotiations, as well as burgeoning federal debt levels and other ongoing concerns, has far-reaching economic implications, leading us to reassess our 2025 outlook.
Tariff talk has been at a fever pitch for the past three months. Its dominance of the news cycle has crowded out discussion of other important economic issues, such as the sustainability of America’s national debt.
The roller coaster continues! A stronger than expected first quarter earnings season and encouraging signs on the trade front—highlighted by the US-UK trade deal—helped lift the S&P 500 from its April 8 near-bear market lows, reversing nearly all post-Liberation Day (April 2) losses.
It may seem risky to lend against recurring revenues, not earnings. With proper underwriting, it doesn’t have to be.
China and the U.S. conducted their first formal trade talks of 2025 over the weekend. And on Monday, May 12, they announced the outcome of their negotiations.
The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
The Q1 2025 earnings season heads into its final peak week with mostly positive results from S&P 500 companies thus far. With 90% of companies from the index now reporting, 78% have beaten Wall Street’s expectations, slightly better than what we’ve seen historically.
For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.
Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income at WisdomTree, joined a VettaFi panel to break down the most attractive fixed income strategies.
Are you prepared to adjust your portfolio in the coming months for the possibility that calm, tranquil markets and a resumption of the bullish trend emerge?
The US and China will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products in a dramatic ratcheting down of trade tensions that buys the world’s two largest economies three months to work toward a broader agreement.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
I’ve been writing about tariffs for a couple of months now, focusing mostly on the macroeconomic harm and the costs they impose on small businesses. Today I want to consider something else: the new risks they are adding to the financial system alongside the old risks.
Warren Buffett opened his 60th—and final as CEO—Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting with the same understated clarity that has defined his career: "This is my 60th annual meeting... I think it'll be the best yet."
When navigating the unknown, an experienced guide can ensure you don’t veer off the path to your chosen destination, can prevent you from stumbling across hazards, and ensure you have the tools you need to finish the journey safely and soundly.
Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.
At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.
China drove the surge in retail investment demand, charting the second strongest quarter on record.
Major tech companies lobbying to salvage a tax deduction for research and development are warning they may pull back from high-profile pledges of new US investments if Congress doesn’t fully reinstate the break.
Preparing for retirement involves more than finances and should include a focus on health, wellbeing and goals. Our Mike Dullaghan explains why it’s important to start preparing 10 years ahead of retirement.
The federal government recently resumed student loan collections after a multi-year pause. This affects millions of borrowers who have been in forbearance since March 2020. Our Bill Cass outlines some options for borrowers in default.
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of slowing economic growth and higher inflation have risen.
As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while emphasizing that elevated uncertainty has clouded the path forward. If, when, and how much tariff policy will change in the months to come will play a large part in dictating the next move for the Fed.
Elite golf is a mental game as much as physical—and so is investing. This year’s Masters tournament was one of the most compelling I have ever witnessed, and Rory McIlroy’s long-awaited playoff victory contains a number of life lessons that are relevant for investors.
Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping the level for overnight money 100 basis points (bps) below last year’s peak reading.
S&P 500® earnings per share estimates have come down sharply. According to FactSet, calendar year 2025 is now expected to show $266 in operating EPS for the Index.
The current geopolitical climate has injected an extra dose of unpredictability into the economy.
“Compounding” is a word often used among investors to describe what they hope to achieve for their capital. Compounding is invoked so frequently that one would think it was the standard aim and practice among investors.
A potential regulatory shift in favor of the ETF industry is expected to shake up the business models of Wall Street brokers, with billions of dollars in revenue at stake.
Markets are desperate for good news about tariffs — or no news at all. It only took a pause on the reciprocal tariffs and vague promises of future trade deals for the bond market to stabilize and stocks to recover.
Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.
After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.
Market headlines may change daily, but the role of a financial advisor remains remarkably consistent: to be the calm in the storm, the strategist with a plan and—most importantly—the voice of reason when clients need it most.
Over years, the US cemented its position as an exceptional source of earnings growth that fueled outsize equity returns. Many investors are now questioning whether the US will retain its advantages as President Trump’s trade policies add uncertainty to the outlook across industries.
When I was much younger, I worked as a bond salesman for a small regional bank in the southwest. I sold some short-term T-bills to yield 17% and some ten-year T-bonds to yield 14%. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman at the time, had reduced inflation dramatically but the bond market had not yet accepted that new reality and kept interest rates very high for a while after Volker achieved his lower level of inflation.
In light of the announcement that Warren Buffett is stepping down, we thought it very useful to share some of the keynote talk I did at the University of Nebraska-Omaha Business School last Friday night (thanks to its wonderful director, Robert Miles).
May 8, VettaFi will host an Income Investment Strategy Symposium. Income is top of mind for many investors.
Valid until the market close on May 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Most advisor websites are invisible because they’re built on a flawed assumption — that people will reach out just because you exist. That’s not how it works anymore.
Sam Altman’s reputation for spin was out in full force this week in a published “letter to employees” announcing that he was abandoning plans to turn OpenAI into a for-profit company. Instead, it will “continue to be overseen and controlled” by its nonprofit board.
Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.
So what has caused such a surge in international returns versus the U.S. so far this year? Is it just short-term noise, reversion to the mean, or something more systematic? If the last few months were purely short-term noise, we will soon know, as U.S. stocks will resume dominance.
Roughly a month on from Liberation Day one thing is clear: While actual tariff numbers may not be set, markets have certainly been liberated from complacency. S
With investors experiencing heightened anxiety about their financial futures, your approach can make the difference between client retention and attrition. This comprehensive guide from our senior consultants explores actionable strategies for effective client communication during market volatility.
This article focuses on asset-based fees that cover both advice and investment-related costs, which is a model that I believe is best-suited for most individuals, as advisors can add value across multiple dimensions.
For investors looking to add bonds, muni bonds remain an attractive option for an ideal blend of yield and stability.
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
In recent times, central bank independence has been taken as gospel. Political pressure for easy money contributed to extremes of inflation in the 1970s.
The uncertainty around US tariff policy has significantly increased US equity volatility.
One of the advantages of individual bonds is the ability to custom-select bonds that fit individual needs and/or goals
Results from some of the Magnificent 7 names last week reignited the AI trade. Both Meta and Microsoft reported after-the-bell on Wednesday, blowing past analyst estimates
If you’ve been inside a Walmart, Target or Home Depot in the past week, you may not realize that a trade war is underway between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. Store shelves are well stocked, and prices have largely held steady.
This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.
While tariff negotiations may well bear fruit eventually, investors today are trying to figure out the impact of changing trade pacts on GDP growth, interest rate levels, the value of the dollar, and the ability of the Treasury to refinance $9.2 trillion of our $36 trillion federal debt in 2025.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 51.6—above the forecast of 50.2. This marks the tenth consecutive month of expansion for the index.
The April U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 50.8, below the 51.4 forecast. The reading marks the 27th consecutive month of expansion and the slowest growth since November 2023.
Jim Tuchler, a Chicago-area retailer, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have a lot in common these days.
The GDP report for the first quarter of the year showed a very engaged business sector as it rushed to try to minimize, as much as possible, the future impact of higher tariffs.
April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.
Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.
For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.
The markets today move at breakneck speed. In fact, if you’ve been watching your 401(k) the past month, you might have gotten whiplash.
Uncertainty reigned through April and likely will continue to do so, at least in the near term. Markets have reacted, both negatively and positively, to every headline coming out of Washington.
Businesses may face challenges but there are also a number of tax-smart strategies that can help mitigate tax liability and enhance efficiency. Our Bill Cass discusses several tax-smart strategies to consider.
In the early years of the artificial intelligence (AI) race, performance benchmarks told a clear story: a handful of frontier models, developed by a few dominant labs, consistently outperformed the rest. In 2024, that changed.
Sustainable adjustments to trade imbalances require supportive monetary and fiscal policies – not just currency intervention.
Vanguard is well-known for making investing more accessible, affordable, and efficient for investors over the past 50 years.
Tax Planning
Gold Gains in Gallup’s Latest Poll
A recent Gallup poll shows gold just passed stocks as Americans’ favorite long-term investment. We explore why it might deserve the top spot.
A Universe of Potential Opportunity Lies Beyond the Public Markets
Technology and trends have made individual investors an important part of the private market.
EGA to Build US Aluminum Plant Touted by Trump Next Year
Emirates Global Aluminium plans to start building a $4 billion plant in Oklahoma next year as Donald Trump pushes for massive investments from oil-rich Gulf states to avoid his tariffs.
A 529 Plan Can be an Effective Component of an Estate Plan
529 plans provide tax benefits, estate planning advantages, and flexible education savings. Our Bill Cass explains how 529 plans can be part of an estate planning strategy.
Income Fund Update: Focus on Stability Amid Turbulence
We maintain a focus on resiliency as elevated yields within high quality fixed income continue to offer attractive opportunities.
Are We Half-Way to a Recession?
After a brief reprieve from all the recession talk while the Fed was raising rates to decades-old high watermarks, the ‘R’ word has come back into vogue once again post-Liberation day.
BIG NUMBER | 30%: A Tariff Turnaround
On Monday, the U.S. and China announced they will temporarily suspend the high import tariffs they imposed on each other earlier this year.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Growing Uncertainty Drags Down Builder Confidence
Builder confidence fell sharply in May as uncertainty stemming from elevated rates, tariffs, building costs, and the cloudy economic outlook dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 18 months.
JPMorgan, Apollo Executives Say US Could Dodge a Recession
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief of global markets strategy said the US could dodge a recession as the probability of that scenario has decreased following better clarity over global trade.
How Rebalancing Helps Keep Your Portfolio on Track
Keeping your financial plan aligned with your goals, risk tolerance and time horizon.
Income Without the Volatility…or Credit Exposure
Our overarching theme for U.S. fixed income has been, and will continue to be, based on the premise that interest rates will stay at more historically “normal” levels, but that, within this backdrop, investors will face heightened volatility.
Goods Trade: Delayed Aggravation
China has been a focal point of American trade policy for many years, but tensions were escalated early in the second Trump term.
5 Ways an Overlay Can Smooth Out a Rocky Market
When volatility ripped through markets last month, many investors scrambled to respond. Some wanted to quickly adjust specific security exposures. Others wanted to flee to cash or build in protection against additional downside moves. And some rushed to buy the dip.
CD or Treasury? Five Factors to Consider
Certificates of deposit (CDs) and Treasuries both can offer steady, predictable investment income—but how to decide between them? Here are five factors to help you choose.
Want to Build a Strong Advisor Team? 3 Ways to Retain Top Talent
Are you trying to grow a stable team of advisors and retain top talent? Young advisors are looking for RIA firms that offer remote work flexibility, a clear path toward advancement and role transparency.
4 Common Myths of Website User Experience
To help exemplify the importance of UX, I’m breaking down a few of the most common UX myths, along with the top recommendations to avoid the pitfalls associated with them.
U.S./Japan Trade Negotiations
The U.S. may not walk back all of the new tariffs.
Why Tariffs Won’t Bring Back the “Good Old Days”
While the U.S. and U.K. have different economic and regulatory landscapes, there are clear opportunities for the U.S. to improve retirement readiness by adopting some best practices from across the pond.
Cross-Atlantic Retirement Readiness: What the U.S. Can Learn from the U.K.
While the U.S. and U.K. have different economic and regulatory landscapes, there are clear opportunities for the U.S. to improve retirement readiness by adopting some best practices from across the pond.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: April 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Uncertainty Continues to Drag Down Optimism
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a fourth straight month, falling to 95.8 in April. Notably, the percent of small business owners who reported difficulty filling job openings fell to its lowest level since January 2021.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Cools to 2.3% in April, Lower Than Expected
Inflation cooled for a third straight month in April, hitting its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.4% in March and lower than the expected 2.4% growth.
Active Fixed Income Perspectives Q2 2025: Risks to Realities
The early-April announcement of a broad new round of tariffs against virtually all U.S. trading partners—followed by a pause for many of them—has triggered a tidal shift in the global economy. Uncertainty created by tariff negotiations, as well as burgeoning federal debt levels and other ongoing concerns, has far-reaching economic implications, leading us to reassess our 2025 outlook.
The Link Between Tariffs and The U.S. Federal Budget
Tariff talk has been at a fever pitch for the past three months. Its dominance of the news cycle has crowded out discussion of other important economic issues, such as the sustainability of America’s national debt.
Three Takeaways From Earnings Season
The roller coaster continues! A stronger than expected first quarter earnings season and encouraging signs on the trade front—highlighted by the US-UK trade deal—helped lift the S&P 500 from its April 8 near-bear market lows, reversing nearly all post-Liberation Day (April 2) losses.
Software Recurring Revenue Lending: Flexibility and Skill Required
It may seem risky to lend against recurring revenues, not earnings. With proper underwriting, it doesn’t have to be.
Giant Step in U.S./China Tariff Talks Sends Stocks Soaring
China and the U.S. conducted their first formal trade talks of 2025 over the weekend. And on Monday, May 12, they announced the outcome of their negotiations.
Hate It or Love It: Sentiment's Message
The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
A Better-than-Expected Q1 Earnings Season Wraps up with the Retailers
The Q1 2025 earnings season heads into its final peak week with mostly positive results from S&P 500 companies thus far. With 90% of companies from the index now reporting, 78% have beaten Wall Street’s expectations, slightly better than what we’ve seen historically.
Basel III Makes It Official: Gold Is Money Again
For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.
WisdomTree’s Kevin Flanagan on How to Navigate Fixed Income
Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income at WisdomTree, joined a VettaFi panel to break down the most attractive fixed income strategies.
The Storm Before the Calm
Are you prepared to adjust your portfolio in the coming months for the possibility that calm, tranquil markets and a resumption of the bullish trend emerge?
US, China to Slash Tariffs During 90-Day Reprieve for Talks
The US and China will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products in a dramatic ratcheting down of trade tensions that buys the world’s two largest economies three months to work toward a broader agreement.
The Federal Reserve Reserves the Right to Change Its Mind
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Tension in the Sandpile
I’ve been writing about tariffs for a couple of months now, focusing mostly on the macroeconomic harm and the costs they impose on small businesses. Today I want to consider something else: the new risks they are adding to the financial system alongside the old risks.
Buffett Steps Back, His Insights Remain
Warren Buffett opened his 60th—and final as CEO—Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting with the same understated clarity that has defined his career: "This is my 60th annual meeting... I think it'll be the best yet."
Value of an Advisor: The Importance of an Experienced Guide
When navigating the unknown, an experienced guide can ensure you don’t veer off the path to your chosen destination, can prevent you from stumbling across hazards, and ensure you have the tools you need to finish the journey safely and soundly.
You Can Run, But You Can’t Hedge
Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.
Increased Risks to Both Sides of the Dual Mandate
At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.
Global Gold Bar and Coin Demand Rose in Q1 But Not in the U.S.
China drove the surge in retail investment demand, charting the second strongest quarter on record.
Tech Industry Warns US Investment Pledges Hinge on Research Tax Break
Major tech companies lobbying to salvage a tax deduction for research and development are warning they may pull back from high-profile pledges of new US investments if Congress doesn’t fully reinstate the break.
The Home Stretch: Seven Essential Steps For Pre-retirees
Preparing for retirement involves more than finances and should include a focus on health, wellbeing and goals. Our Mike Dullaghan explains why it’s important to start preparing 10 years ahead of retirement.
For Students With College Debt in Default, it’s Time to Pay the Bill
The federal government recently resumed student loan collections after a multi-year pause. This affects millions of borrowers who have been in forbearance since March 2020. Our Bill Cass outlines some options for borrowers in default.
Fed Holds Rates Steady but Warns of Rising Risks
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of slowing economic growth and higher inflation have risen.
Mixed Signals on the Path Ahead for U.S. Economy
As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.
Awaiting Further Clarity
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while emphasizing that elevated uncertainty has clouded the path forward. If, when, and how much tariff policy will change in the months to come will play a large part in dictating the next move for the Fed.
Risk, Reward, and Rory at the Masters
Elite golf is a mental game as much as physical—and so is investing. This year’s Masters tournament was one of the most compelling I have ever witnessed, and Rory McIlroy’s long-awaited playoff victory contains a number of life lessons that are relevant for investors.
Fed Watch: Still Waiting
Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping the level for overnight money 100 basis points (bps) below last year’s peak reading.
Dividend Hikes Offer Optimism Amid Tariff Turmoil
S&P 500® earnings per share estimates have come down sharply. According to FactSet, calendar year 2025 is now expected to show $266 in operating EPS for the Index.
The 2-Faced Economy: Strong Data Amid Shaky Sentiment
The current geopolitical climate has injected an extra dose of unpredictability into the economy.
Abstraction: Good for Art, Bad for Compounding
“Compounding” is a word often used among investors to describe what they hope to achieve for their capital. Compounding is invoked so frequently that one would think it was the standard aim and practice among investors.
Wall Street Brokers Risk Losing Billions in Fees on SEC Shift
A potential regulatory shift in favor of the ETF industry is expected to shake up the business models of Wall Street brokers, with billions of dollars in revenue at stake.
Tariffs Will Be Bad, But They Won’t Cause a Recession
Markets are desperate for good news about tariffs — or no news at all. It only took a pause on the reciprocal tariffs and vague promises of future trade deals for the bond market to stabilize and stocks to recover.
Tactical Rules Move to Neutral
Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.
Tariff Risks Reshape Manager Positioning
After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.
When Markets Shake, Advisors Steady the Ship
Market headlines may change daily, but the role of a financial advisor remains remarkably consistent: to be the calm in the storm, the strategist with a plan and—most importantly—the voice of reason when clients need it most.
Is US Exceptionalism Over for Equity Investors?
Over years, the US cemented its position as an exceptional source of earnings growth that fueled outsize equity returns. Many investors are now questioning whether the US will retain its advantages as President Trump’s trade policies add uncertainty to the outlook across industries.
Bonzai Bonds: Could 14% Treasury Bonds Return?
When I was much younger, I worked as a bond salesman for a small regional bank in the southwest. I sold some short-term T-bills to yield 17% and some ten-year T-bonds to yield 14%. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman at the time, had reduced inflation dramatically but the bond market had not yet accepted that new reality and kept interest rates very high for a while after Volker achieved his lower level of inflation.
Thank You Warren Buffett
In light of the announcement that Warren Buffett is stepping down, we thought it very useful to share some of the keynote talk I did at the University of Nebraska-Omaha Business School last Friday night (thanks to its wonderful director, Robert Miles).
What to Expect at the Income Investment Strategy Symposium
May 8, VettaFi will host an Income Investment Strategy Symposium. Income is top of mind for many investors.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: April 2025
Valid until the market close on May 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The Fatal Flaw in Treating Your Website Like a Digital Brochure
Most advisor websites are invisible because they’re built on a flawed assumption — that people will reach out just because you exist. That’s not how it works anymore.
OpenAI Can't Have Its Money Both Ways
Sam Altman’s reputation for spin was out in full force this week in a published “letter to employees” announcing that he was abandoning plans to turn OpenAI into a for-profit company. Instead, it will “continue to be overseen and controlled” by its nonprofit board.
Gold Has Many Buyers
Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.
International Investing: A New Paradigm?
So what has caused such a surge in international returns versus the U.S. so far this year? Is it just short-term noise, reversion to the mean, or something more systematic? If the last few months were purely short-term noise, we will soon know, as U.S. stocks will resume dominance.
A Tariff-Centric World Takes Shape
Roughly a month on from Liberation Day one thing is clear: While actual tariff numbers may not be set, markets have certainly been liberated from complacency. S
Client Communication Strategies During Market Volatility
With investors experiencing heightened anxiety about their financial futures, your approach can make the difference between client retention and attrition. This comprehensive guide from our senior consultants explores actionable strategies for effective client communication during market volatility.
The Hidden Cost in Investing: Negative Compounding & the Opportunity Cost of Fees
This article focuses on asset-based fees that cover both advice and investment-related costs, which is a model that I believe is best-suited for most individuals, as advisors can add value across multiple dimensions.
Muni Bonds Remain Attractive Amid Market Volatility
For investors looking to add bonds, muni bonds remain an attractive option for an ideal blend of yield and stability.
Tariffs: Q1 Impacts and Q2 Negotiations
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
Criticism of The Fed: Rule, Not Exception
In recent times, central bank independence has been taken as gospel. Political pressure for easy money contributed to extremes of inflation in the 1970s.
Pyrrhic Victory: Sacrificing Pretax Returns at the Altar of Realized Losses
The uncertainty around US tariff policy has significantly increased US equity volatility.
A Substantial Collection of Fixed Income Opportunities
One of the advantages of individual bonds is the ability to custom-select bonds that fit individual needs and/or goals
Big Tech Breathes Life into Q1 Earnings
Results from some of the Magnificent 7 names last week reignited the AI trade. Both Meta and Microsoft reported after-the-bell on Wednesday, blowing past analyst estimates
U.S. Ports Face Massive Slowdowns as Trump Tariffs Bite Hard
If you’ve been inside a Walmart, Target or Home Depot in the past week, you may not realize that a trade war is underway between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. Store shelves are well stocked, and prices have largely held steady.
Looking Beyond President Trump’s First 100 Days in Office
This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.
Fixed Income and Tariff Policy: Advising Clients in an Era of Uncertainty
While tariff negotiations may well bear fruit eventually, investors today are trying to figure out the impact of changing trade pacts on GDP growth, interest rate levels, the value of the dollar, and the ability of the Treasury to refinance $9.2 trillion of our $36 trillion federal debt in 2025.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Tenth Straight Month in April
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 51.6—above the forecast of 50.2. This marks the tenth consecutive month of expansion for the index.
S&P Global Services PMI: Slowest Growth in 17 Months
The April U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 50.8, below the 51.4 forecast. The reading marks the 27th consecutive month of expansion and the slowest growth since November 2023.
Trade Chaos is Part of the Plan for Trump, Nightmare for Powell
Jim Tuchler, a Chicago-area retailer, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have a lot in common these days.
Firms Front-Load Increase in Tariffs During Q1 2025
The GDP report for the first quarter of the year showed a very engaged business sector as it rushed to try to minimize, as much as possible, the future impact of higher tariffs.
Top Lessons from Professor Siegel This April
April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.
Soft Data Gets Softer
Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.
U.S. Treasuries Falling Out of Favor?
For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.
The Markets Are in the Fast Lane. Buckle Up.
The markets today move at breakneck speed. In fact, if you’ve been watching your 401(k) the past month, you might have gotten whiplash.
April Showered with Tariff Talk, Market Volatility
Uncertainty reigned through April and likely will continue to do so, at least in the near term. Markets have reacted, both negatively and positively, to every headline coming out of Washington.
Key Tax Planning Strategies for Business Owners
Businesses may face challenges but there are also a number of tax-smart strategies that can help mitigate tax liability and enhance efficiency. Our Bill Cass discusses several tax-smart strategies to consider.
AI’s Great Flattening: What Happens when Everyone Is State-of-the-Art?
In the early years of the artificial intelligence (AI) race, performance benchmarks told a clear story: a handful of frontier models, developed by a few dominant labs, consistently outperformed the rest. In 2024, that changed.
The Real Lessons From the Plaza and Louvre Accords
Sustainable adjustments to trade imbalances require supportive monetary and fiscal policies – not just currency intervention.
Vanguard Turns 50: How the Asset Management Giant Changed the Industry
Vanguard is well-known for making investing more accessible, affordable, and efficient for investors over the past 50 years.