The Federal Reserve hiked rates, and we expect there are more to come. With a hawkish Fed and a resilient economy, long-term yields may stay elevated.
AI can do the prep. It writes the file notes, assembles the meeting brief, and produces a credible first version of the plan. The time saved is real, and no one should hand it back. The bill arrives later. A skill you stop practicing gets weaker, and professional judgment is a skill.
The US deficit has reached $1.97 trillion and is on track to pass 6% of gross domestic product this fiscal year, the latest milestone in a remarkable deterioration of the federal budget.
The two largest municipal bond exchange-traded funds just recorded their largest weekly inflows ever, shortly after a bond rout fueled outflows in other muni funds.
In late January, the week before Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced a $1.6 billion government commitment to fund a US magnet maker, bankers at his former financial services company, now run by his sons, were busy earning fees raising $1.5 billion more for the company from private investors.
Creating an estate plan is an important step, but it is only one piece of your financial life. If your estate documents, investment strategy, retirement plan, tax strategy, and beneficiary designations are not working together, even a well-crafted estate plan may not achieve the outcome you intended. Coordinating these elements may help support your wealth is transferred efficiently, your wishes are honored, and unnecessary complications are reduced.
Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Kevin Warsh has established his hawkish credentials. Franklin Templeton CIO, Sonal Desai sees scope for further yield curve steepening and a range of selective opportunities, based on capturing income and focusing on quality rather than counting on lower rates or tighter spreads.
It wasn’t that long ago that Kevin Warsh’s leading critics were saying his biggest problem was that he wasn’t “independent” from President Trump, that if Trump told him to “jump” he’d ask “how high?” Or, in this particular situation, “how low should interest rates go?”
Every runner has a natural pace: the speed that we maintain under optimal conditions like flat terrain, cool temperatures and a good night of sleep. Runners can train to speed up to meet a target time, or slow down for endurance.
Dividend growth is back, and it’s fair to say that outperformance among dividend growth stocks may simply be overdue amid a shift in U.S. equity market leadership beyond a small group of mega-cap technology companies.
Longevity optimists believe advances in geroscience, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and other fields could significantly extend both health span and lifespan. Living healthy into our late 90s, and perhaps beyond 100 for many, should be taken seriously when thinking about our personal and financial futures.
Cryptocurrency can complicate divorce even when no one is hiding it. Early identification and collaboration can prevent a misunderstood transaction or unilateral decision from becoming a costly dispute. This preparation also gives both spouses a reliable basis for evaluating settlement terms and trade-offs.
Advisors equipped with outcome-based allocation frameworks and cash-flow-focused strategies like dividend-growth investing can help business owners translate a singular liquidity event into a wealth plan aligned with their lifestyle, generational, and aspirational goals.
This has been an incredible year in that Wall Street has spent all of it raising its earnings estimates, and the second-quarter season only accelerated the trend. Analysts began the year expecting S&P 500 earnings to grow about 15%.
Early this week, I was in Los Angeles at the All-In Summit along with about 4,000 others, including tech investors, money managers and entrepreneurs. The ticket wasn’t cheap, but it was well worth it.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
As summer officially gives way to fall on September 22, it's not just the weather that's changing. The global monetary policy landscape is shifting as well. After spending much of the past two years focused on supporting growth, central banks have increasingly turned their attention back to inflation, especially with oil prices climbing back above $100 per barrel.
I typically avoid business books when I am on vacation. But I made an exception during our sojourn last month for Andrew Ross Sorkin’s 1929. Nearly a century after the Great Crash, that era is still being studied for lessons that might be relevant in the current day. The potential for financial instability is ever-present.
Confused by the Singularity and the impending AI apocalypse? Theoretical physicist turned science writer Adam Becker is here to help with “More Everything Forever: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley’s Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity,” a jaundiced tour d’horizon of the peculiar end-times stories that IT visionaries — particularly the richest and most powerful ones — tell themselves.
The Federal Reserve increased rates by 25 basis points this week, a remarkable turnaround with major implications for portfolios of all kinds; one underexamined impacted area may be annuities.
The combination of prior Fed inaction followed by relatively significant market tightening raises a question: If long-maturity yields were already weighing on economic activity, did the bond market already do the Fed’s job?
The K-shaped economy is real, and it is old. What changed isn’t the shape of the economy; it’s just that the media found a narrative that gets lots of clicks and views, and we let headlines do our thinking for us.
Throughout this Indexing Redefined series, we explored how traditional market-capitalization indexing ties portfolio weights directly to stock prices, creating hidden concentration risks. Furthermore, we discussed how fundamental indexing offers a disciplined alternative by weighting companies according to their real-world economic footprint. In this final installment, we address the dilemma investors face in highly concentrated equity markets.
This month, our experts discuss how Federal Reserve tightening has historically affected the markets; whether European stocks might be worth a second look; and the news from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. We provide the supporting documentation for all claims summarized below in the linked articles.
Pacing isn't pausing. Calls to "pace the frontier" mean slowing the release of powerful artificial intelligence (AI) models to test and control them better, not halting development or spending.
Advisors outsourcing at least 20% of assets reported saving 9.1 hours per week, or approximately 473 hours annually. WisdomTree research found 90% of investors welcomed third-party model portfolios, suggesting clients may be more comfortable with outside expertise than advisors expect.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) made something clear this week that markets had been reluctant to accept. Apparently, the easing cycle isn't paused, it's over for now.
Open any market commentary today and the conversation is dominated by giants. Mega-cap technology companies command outsized shares of major indexes, and the private markets tell a similar story, as we watch companies increasingly staying private well past the point where they once would have gone public.
After years of trying to convince developers and investors that it’s a viable alternative to Miami and Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale’s pitch is starting to resonate.
Artificial intelligence is advancing at a stunning, and perhaps uncontrolled speed. Last week, Evan Hubinger, the Alignment Science Lead at the AI company Anthropic estimated a greater than 10% chance that AI could eliminate humanity within a decade. Jakub Pachocki, Chief Scientist at OpenAI, recently observed 'The core problem in AI research is that of alignment - getting the AI to ‘try to do the right thing’ by human standards…
A spinout from the family office for the billionaire owners of US construction giant Michels Corp. is expanding its public equities strategy with a fund focused on US infrastructure.
For decades, equity investors have relied on a foundational promise from Corporate America: the continuous return of surplus cash. Dividends and share repurchases represent the two primary ways by which companies deliver tangible value back to shareholders. Yet as we navigate the final stretch of the third quarter of 2026, both channels are signaling a distinct shift toward restraint.
The new investment case for global power, security and affordability. The phrase “energy transition” has served as a useful political and cultural shorthand, but it has become a misleading framework for capital allocation. Franklin Templeton Institute explodes new opportunities for investors—and where shifts in thinking may be needed.
One of my favorite movies was the Coen Brothers movie, No Country for Old Men. It is the story of a guy who makes off with $2 million stolen by someone else. The ‘someone else’ is a super mean guy with a powerful blow gun. They are both being chased by a policeman. It was the best picture of 2007 and won four Oscars.
A rising S&P 500® might suggest few opportunities for tax-loss harvesting. But unusually wide dispersion among individual stocks is telling a different story—and potentially creating new opportunities for direct indexing.
Municipal bonds might still offer attractive tax-advantaged income and relatively stable credit quality for investors who understand the risks.
The recent global bond sell-off may be more than a temporary repricing. Rising government debt, persistent inflation risks and shifting economic expectations could keep longer-term yields elevated relative to the post-financial-crisis era.
The 2026 U.S. midterms are rapidly approaching, with major implications. Muni bonds, in particular, may be impacted.
Advancements in technology, combined with significant stock market gains in recent years, have created a new set of opportunities—and challenges—for investors. For example, investors holding a concentrated position in a highly appreciated stock may face a difficult trade-off between the risk of a market downturn and the potentially significant tax cost of diversifying the position.
When it comes to personal finance, conventional wisdom says the best way to live is debt-free. There are many important reasons why this is tried and true, but for high-net-worth individuals, lending can be an optimal way to access cash in the near term without sacrificing long-term gains on your assets.
Fed policymakers unanimously voted to raise rates 25 basis points, the first hike since 2023, and vowed to fight inflation. Another hike is seen this year, but 2027 is in question.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise rates by a quarter-point, bringing the new fed funds trading range to 3.75%–4.00%. The money and bond markets had been pricing in a potential rate hike at this gathering, and Warsh & Co. ultimately determined that such a move was warranted. That said, the ‘rate hike’ story does not end here.
Clients value advisors who are knowledgeable about philanthropy as well as those who collaborate with philanthropic specialists when deeper expertise is needed. Advisors who coordinate deliberately with specialists, rather than working around them, are best positioned to meet those expectations.
In my years working with advisors, teams, and firms, I’ve had to confront the topic of compensation many times. It’s hard to grow when you don’t have the right incentives in place to encourage people to focus on actually doing it and hard to team effectively when people may think they are being treated unfairly.
US retail sales rose by the most in five months in a broad advance, showing consumers continued to spend despite rising gasoline prices.
Last December we published Riding the Wave: The Anatomy of Booms & Bubbles. In it, we argued that the AI spending boom would continue through 2026 without tipping into ‘bubble’ mania, and that the right posture was to stay overweight stocks while favoring US assets. Nine months on, we think that call has aged well.
With so much attention focused on what the Fed might do at its policy meeting this week, it’s a good time to look back at history to get a sense of how stocks might respond should policymakers hike rates as the market now expects. LPL Research had been characterizing the rate decision as a coin flip until Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole meeting and the strong August jobs report.
From the 2020 pandemic to today’s oil shocks, we’re often reminded in recent years that inflation can flare up unexpectedly. We’ve also likely entered an era in which higher inflation may linger for some time. As a result, bond-heavy and income-oriented investors may need to shore up their inflation defense, which we think should combine strategic positioning with tactical maneuvering.
AI-driven healthcare innovation is creating strong investment opportunities by improving efficiency, expanding access, and delivering better patient outcomes.
A week of rising oil prices and higher interest rates sent stocks lower across the board as investors increasingly priced in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin a rate-hiking cycle at its September 16 meeting. Following the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, futures markets implied an 88 percent probability that the Fed will, or at least should, raise rates at next week's meeting.
In what is a good sign, many discussions around automation generally and AI specifically are increasingly moving to questions about compliance and liability. Basically, people are asking whether the agentic coworker they just hired is smart enough to trust.
An essay from Anthropic PBC’s Dario Amodei saying artificial intelligence companies must “pace the frontier” has got the world talking about a slowdown in their most cutting-edge research. OpenAI’s Sam Altman and SpaceX’s Elon Musk publicly agreed with the post.
The future of retirement planning is not a new model replacing an old one, but a more holistic approach that blends rigorous analytics with important client input. Advisors who adopt this integrated model will find that it deepens client conversations, clarifies tradeoffs, improves long-term decision-making.
Periods like this can feel especially tense, with higher stakes and more urgent headlines. Yet over time, markets have shown they are forward-looking and resilient, absorbing uncertainty rather than freezing in it. While today’s geopolitical backdrop may feel unsettling, it fits a long history of disruptions that markets have ultimately navigated.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Most coverage of Trump Accounts treats them as a parenting question, or a discussion comparing them to 529s. For founders and business owners the analysis of them is slightly more nuanced.
Demand for fixed income ETFs hit a historic high-water mark in September. Investors and advisors turned to fixed income ETFs at a record-breaking pace, driving 2026 net inflows of $446 billion past all-time levels with months to spare. The massive tide of capital arrives at a critical juncture.
Last week, the refining margin on European gasoil, the benchmark that sets the price of diesel and heating oil across much of the world, closed at roughly $94 a barrel over Brent crude, according to Bloomberg data. That figure is normally somewhere between $12 and $18.
As policymakers adapt to new leadership, navigate a challenging geopolitical backdrop and contend with meaningful internal debate over the path of interest rates, the stakes remain high. Below, we discuss what to expect from next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and provide perspective on the recent rise of Treasury yields to multi-year highs.
According to new data from J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s 2026 Defined Contribution Plan Participant Survey, 73% of savers said they wish they could hit an “easy button” and fully delegate their wealth management.
As I go through the strengths and weaknesses of each model, my goals are to point out where the models are strong and to point out potential weaknesses such as conflicts of interest, which are important to be aware of in working with clients. Although we are all fiduciaries, financial incentives matter because we are all human. I know great advisors across all fee models.
Heading into the September 16 FOMC meeting, the debate over whether the Fed should raise rates or hold is heated. To help you appreciate the range of views, I present this article as a courtroom exercise. I will let the prosecution make its case for a rate hike, and the defense for a hold.
ETF share classes represent a structural innovation that combines the benefits of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) within a single pooled portfolio. This evolution expands investor choice, offering both ETF and mutual fund shares under a unified investment strategy.
For many investors, a 401(k) is simply a retirement savings account. For high-net-worth families, however, it can become a sophisticated planning tool that supports tax efficiency, wealth accumulation, and long-term legacy objectives.
Equity markets generally moved lower as rising yields and energy prices created a more challenging backdrop. Higher yields can be particularly difficult for long-duration equities, where a greater share of expected cash flows sits further into the future.
Some investors are questioning how much further this year’s rally can run with the S&P 500 Index up 12.3% through the first eight months of the year. Encouragingly, history suggests that strong starts tend to persist; when the S&P 500 has gained more than 10% through August it has advanced from September through December in 25 of 28 instances, an 89% positive hit rate.
Occasionally, we are confronted with decisions where there are no easy options. The prevailing circumstances bound our choices, and we may face criticism no matter what we do. Collectively, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) finds itself in just such a situation as it prepares for its upcoming meeting.
Investors can’t get enough of ultrashort bonds. Driven by concerns over high equity valuations and rate volatility as the U.S. Federal Reserve mulls over the direction of interest rates, capital preservation strategies appear to be the elixir to help ease uncertainty. As such, ultrashort bonds have been seeing greater demand as traditional safe havens fall short on yield or carry unwanted duration risk.
One or a few high-performing stocks can provide a big boost to portfolio values. But they’re hard to come by and often struggle to maintain their momentum over time. Because these stocks increase portfolio concentration, investors must balance the risk of overexposure against the tax cost of diversifying. A thoughtful, tax-aware plan may help bring portfolios back in line.
Don't let September's macro headline noise fool you. Today’s economic backdrop won’t likely trigger a broad market freeze like 2022, but there will be winners and losers. Cash-rich mega-caps, AI infrastructure plays, and scaled market leaders (the SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI tier) command their own gravity.
Inflation rose 3.4% year-over-year in August, as it did for the 12 months ending July. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with economist estimates.
History suggests slower Fed tightening tends to support stronger market returns and firmer economic growth, while faster hikes typically deepen drawdowns.
2026 began with 10-year Treasuries right around 4%, which many viewed as a comfortable place. The comfort came from some simple math—2 plus 2 equals 4. The long-term real yield on the 10-year Treasury was around 2% and the Fed’s inflation target is 2%.
Market volatility persisted in August as investors were again forced to reassess escalating tensions and an exchange of military strikes in the Middle East, while softer labor-market data was countered by mixed inflation readings.
With so much attention focused on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) might do at its policy meeting next week, it’s a good time to look back at history to get a sense of how stocks might respond should the Fed hike rates as the market (barely) expects.
Benchmark-Free has been a flagship strategy for half of GMO's history. As we approach our 50th anniversary in 2027, Ben Inker reflects on our first 25 years of Benchmark-Free investing.
Elevated interest rates have investors scrambling for yield, and munis have been ready to answer the call with tax-exempt income.
For much of the past decade and a half, investors saw little reason to favor bonds over equities. Yields were low and returns were muted, especially in passive strategies. Equities seemed to offer a much clearer path to long-term capital appreciation. For many investors, bonds were, at best, ballast: a dull but generally stable component of a broader portfolio. Then the experience of 2022 had investors questioning even that view, as areas of high quality fixed income generated equity-like losses that eroded much of the prior decade’s real return.
As students get closer to making a final college decision, the last two years of high school are particularly important. Parents will want to review their financial strategy to meet the costs of college, including a review of current savings, financial and merit aid, scholarships and loan options.
On Friday, the August U.S. employment report surprised to the upside, with 162,000 jobs added during the month. Year to date, the labor market has shown impressive resilience, with hiring also becoming more balanced across sectors than in previous years.
Before Friday’s jobs report, it was roughly a toss-up in the financial markets whether the Fed would raise rates at the next meeting in mid-September. Now, the odds favor a rate hike and it’s not hard to see why.
When markets become volatile, many investors gravitate toward assets they perceive as “safe.” Cash, certificates of deposit (CDs), money market funds, U.S. Treasury securities, and high-quality bonds can all play an important role in a diversified portfolio. But “safe” doesn’t necessarily mean “risk-free.”
LPL Research analyzes rising U.S. debt, Treasury yields, and fiscal trends, highlighting implications for markets and investors.
Join the experts from Stance Capital, SS&C ALPS Advisors, and VettaFi for an educational webcast to learn all about the mechanics of Section 351 and how to determine if an investor qualifies under IRS regulations.
As clients come to advisory shops more informed, due to the plethora of financial advice available online, firms will need to be able to “stress test the information or bias” they arrive with. A comprehensive team, with training across advisory areas, can offer clients more depth of service.
Chapter 3 of this series ended with a simple question. If the math so plainly says avoid big losses, respect valuations, and mind your timing, why does so much of the industry preach the opposite?
Labor Day signals more than summer’s end. It marks a return of focus to the economic and market forces that will shape the remainder of the year. From resilient earnings and record AI spending to rising bond yields and the midterm elections, there is no shortage of forces shaping the market outlook.
If you’re planning on driving anywhere this Labor Day weekend, be prepared to pay the highest gas prices ever for this time of year. The national average hit $4.14 per gallon on Thursday, an approximately 30% increase from last year, according to AAA.
To kick off our fourth season of the Alternative Allocations podcast series, I sat down with John Bowman, CEO of CAIA Association, to explore the massive changes underway across our industry. John and I discussed CAIA’s seminal paper “The World Rewired,” and the implications for private markets.
The Federal Reserve has spent the past four years trying to cool price increases through higher interest rates. The federal funds rate is still well above its pre-pandemic average, mortgage rates remain elevated, and borrowing costs for households and businesses are considerably higher than they were in the era of ultra-low interest rates.
Tax Planning
Fed Hikes: What's Next for Treasury Yields?
The Federal Reserve hiked rates, and we expect there are more to come. With a hawkish Fed and a resilient economy, long-term yields may stay elevated.
The Skill That Fades When AI Does the Prep
AI can do the prep. It writes the file notes, assembles the meeting brief, and produces a credible first version of the plan. The time saved is real, and no one should hand it back. The bill arrives later. A skill you stop practicing gets weaker, and professional judgment is a skill.
There’s a Secret Third Path to Escaping America’s Debt Trap
The US deficit has reached $1.97 trillion and is on track to pass 6% of gross domestic product this fiscal year, the latest milestone in a remarkable deterioration of the federal budget.
BlackRock, Vanguard Muni ETFs See Record Inflows After Bond Rout
The two largest municipal bond exchange-traded funds just recorded their largest weekly inflows ever, shortly after a bond rout fueled outflows in other muni funds.
The Tiny Magnet Maker That Attracted $1.6 Billion From Lutnick
In late January, the week before Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced a $1.6 billion government commitment to fund a US magnet maker, bankers at his former financial services company, now run by his sons, were busy earning fees raising $1.5 billion more for the company from private investors.
A Guide to Coordinating Your Estate Plan With Your Financial Plan
Creating an estate plan is an important step, but it is only one piece of your financial life. If your estate documents, investment strategy, retirement plan, tax strategy, and beneficiary designations are not working together, even a well-crafted estate plan may not achieve the outcome you intended. Coordinating these elements may help support your wealth is transferred efficiently, your wishes are honored, and unnecessary complications are reduced.
On My Mind: One Flew Over the Dove’s Nest
Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Kevin Warsh has established his hawkish credentials. Franklin Templeton CIO, Sonal Desai sees scope for further yield curve steepening and a range of selective opportunities, based on capturing income and focusing on quality rather than counting on lower rates or tighter spreads.
Want Fed Independence? Cut Government
It wasn’t that long ago that Kevin Warsh’s leading critics were saying his biggest problem was that he wasn’t “independent” from President Trump, that if Trump told him to “jump” he’d ask “how high?” Or, in this particular situation, “how low should interest rates go?”
Neutral Rates Nosing Up
Every runner has a natural pace: the speed that we maintain under optimal conditions like flat terrain, cool temperatures and a good night of sleep. Runners can train to speed up to meet a target time, or slow down for endurance.
Dividend Demand Revives as Market Leadership Shifts
Dividend growth is back, and it’s fair to say that outperformance among dividend growth stocks may simply be overdue amid a shift in U.S. equity market leadership beyond a small group of mega-cap technology companies.
A Practical Take on Longevity for Advisors & Clients
Longevity optimists believe advances in geroscience, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and other fields could significantly extend both health span and lifespan. Living healthy into our late 90s, and perhaps beyond 100 for many, should be taken seriously when thinking about our personal and financial futures.
How Financial Advisors Add Value in Divorce Cases Involving Digital Assets
Cryptocurrency can complicate divorce even when no one is hiding it. Early identification and collaboration can prevent a misunderstood transaction or unilateral decision from becoming a costly dispute. This preparation also gives both spouses a reliable basis for evaluating settlement terms and trade-offs.
Navigating the $14-Trillion Transition: How Advisors Can Guide Business Owners Through Liquidity Events
Advisors equipped with outcome-based allocation frameworks and cash-flow-focused strategies like dividend-growth investing can help business owners translate a singular liquidity event into a wealth plan aligned with their lifestyle, generational, and aspirational goals.
Earnings Mean Reversion: When Estimates Snap Back
This has been an incredible year in that Wall Street has spent all of it raising its earnings estimates, and the second-quarter season only accelerated the trend. Analysts began the year expecting S&P 500 earnings to grow about 15%.
Why Big Tech’s AI Capex Is Now Outrunning Cash Flow
Early this week, I was in Los Angeles at the All-In Summit along with about 4,000 others, including tech investors, money managers and entrepreneurs. The ticket wasn’t cheap, but it was well worth it.
Here We Go Again—Another Hiking Cycle?
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
What the Federal Reserve’s Rate Hike Means for the Markets
As summer officially gives way to fall on September 22, it's not just the weather that's changing. The global monetary policy landscape is shifting as well. After spending much of the past two years focused on supporting growth, central banks have increasingly turned their attention back to inflation, especially with oil prices climbing back above $100 per barrel.
A Review of 1929
I typically avoid business books when I am on vacation. But I made an exception during our sojourn last month for Andrew Ross Sorkin’s 1929. Nearly a century after the Great Crash, that era is still being studied for lessons that might be relevant in the current day. The potential for financial instability is ever-present.
Future Schlock: A Guide to the Singularity
Confused by the Singularity and the impending AI apocalypse? Theoretical physicist turned science writer Adam Becker is here to help with “More Everything Forever: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley’s Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity,” a jaundiced tour d’horizon of the peculiar end-times stories that IT visionaries — particularly the richest and most powerful ones — tell themselves.
How Rising Rates Impact Your Annuities Portfolio
The Federal Reserve increased rates by 25 basis points this week, a remarkable turnaround with major implications for portfolios of all kinds; one underexamined impacted area may be annuities.
Has the Bond Market Already Done the Fed's Job?
The combination of prior Fed inaction followed by relatively significant market tightening raises a question: If long-maturity yields were already weighing on economic activity, did the bond market already do the Fed’s job?
K-Shaped Economy: Reality or Media-Driven Perception
The K-shaped economy is real, and it is old. What changed isn’t the shape of the economy; it’s just that the media found a narrative that gets lots of clicks and views, and we let headlines do our thinking for us.
Indexing Redefined, Part IV: Active Management vs. RAFI
Throughout this Indexing Redefined series, we explored how traditional market-capitalization indexing ties portfolio weights directly to stock prices, creating hidden concentration risks. Furthermore, we discussed how fundamental indexing offers a disciplined alternative by weighting companies according to their real-world economic footprint. In this final installment, we address the dilemma investors face in highly concentrated equity markets.
Schwab Market Perspective
This month, our experts discuss how Federal Reserve tightening has historically affected the markets; whether European stocks might be worth a second look; and the news from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. We provide the supporting documentation for all claims summarized below in the linked articles.
Pacing the Frontier
Pacing isn't pausing. Calls to "pace the frontier" mean slowing the release of powerful artificial intelligence (AI) models to test and control them better, not halting development or spending.
What Would You Do With 9 Extra Hours a Week?
Advisors outsourcing at least 20% of assets reported saving 9.1 hours per week, or approximately 473 hours annually. WisdomTree research found 90% of investors welcomed third-party model portfolios, suggesting clients may be more comfortable with outside expertise than advisors expect.
A Hawkish Fed, a Two-Speed China, and the Thread That Connects Them
The Federal Reserve (Fed) made something clear this week that markets had been reluctant to accept. Apparently, the easing cycle isn't paused, it's over for now.
The Case for Small-Cap Investing: A Cyclical Story, Not a Broken One
Open any market commentary today and the conversation is dominated by giants. Mega-cap technology companies command outsized shares of major indexes, and the private markets tell a similar story, as we watch companies increasingly staying private well past the point where they once would have gone public.
New York Developers Look North of Miami for Florida’s Next Boom
After years of trying to convince developers and investors that it’s a viable alternative to Miami and Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale’s pitch is starting to resonate.
Dear Humanity – Can We Teach AI Compassion?
Artificial intelligence is advancing at a stunning, and perhaps uncontrolled speed. Last week, Evan Hubinger, the Alignment Science Lead at the AI company Anthropic estimated a greater than 10% chance that AI could eliminate humanity within a decade. Jakub Pachocki, Chief Scientist at OpenAI, recently observed 'The core problem in AI research is that of alignment - getting the AI to ‘try to do the right thing’ by human standards…
Billionaire US Construction Family Backs ‘Rebuild America’ ETF
A spinout from the family office for the billionaire owners of US construction giant Michels Corp. is expanding its public equities strategy with a fund focused on US infrastructure.
Capital Return Retreat: Dividends and Buybacks Slump as Macro Risks Mount in Q3
For decades, equity investors have relied on a foundational promise from Corporate America: the continuous return of surplus cash. Dividends and share repurchases represent the two primary ways by which companies deliver tangible value back to shareholders. Yet as we navigate the final stretch of the third quarter of 2026, both channels are signaling a distinct shift toward restraint.
Energy Addition Within the Transition
The new investment case for global power, security and affordability. The phrase “energy transition” has served as a useful political and cultural shorthand, but it has become a misleading framework for capital allocation. Franklin Templeton Institute explodes new opportunities for investors—and where shifts in thinking may be needed.
No Country for Old (or Young) Men
One of my favorite movies was the Coen Brothers movie, No Country for Old Men. It is the story of a guy who makes off with $2 million stolen by someone else. The ‘someone else’ is a super mean guy with a powerful blow gun. They are both being chased by a policeman. It was the best picture of 2007 and won four Oscars.
The Hidden Tax-Loss Opportunity in Today's Stock Market
A rising S&P 500® might suggest few opportunities for tax-loss harvesting. But unusually wide dispersion among individual stocks is telling a different story—and potentially creating new opportunities for direct indexing.
Do Munis Still Deserve a Place in Your Portfolio?
Municipal bonds might still offer attractive tax-advantaged income and relatively stable credit quality for investors who understand the risks.
Higher Yields May Be More Structural Than Cyclical
The recent global bond sell-off may be more than a temporary repricing. Rising government debt, persistent inflation risks and shifting economic expectations could keep longer-term yields elevated relative to the post-financial-crisis era.
As Midterms Loom, Here Are the Opportunities in Muni Bonds
The 2026 U.S. midterms are rapidly approaching, with major implications. Muni bonds, in particular, may be impacted.
Planning Considerations for a Direct Indexing Program
Advancements in technology, combined with significant stock market gains in recent years, have created a new set of opportunities—and challenges—for investors. For example, investors holding a concentrated position in a highly appreciated stock may face a difficult trade-off between the risk of a market downturn and the potentially significant tax cost of diversifying the position.
When Borrowing Can Be a Smart Strategy
When it comes to personal finance, conventional wisdom says the best way to live is debt-free. There are many important reasons why this is tried and true, but for high-net-worth individuals, lending can be an optimal way to access cash in the near term without sacrificing long-term gains on your assets.
Fed Hikes in 12-0 Vote, Commits to Inflation Fight
Fed policymakers unanimously voted to raise rates 25 basis points, the first hike since 2023, and vowed to fight inflation. Another hike is seen this year, but 2027 is in question.
Fed Watch: Finally, ‘Walkin’ the Walk’
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise rates by a quarter-point, bringing the new fed funds trading range to 3.75%–4.00%. The money and bond markets had been pricing in a potential rate hike at this gathering, and Warsh & Co. ultimately determined that such a move was warranted. That said, the ‘rate hike’ story does not end here.
The Philanthropic Specialist Is Less a Competitor Than a Secret Weapon
Clients value advisors who are knowledgeable about philanthropy as well as those who collaborate with philanthropic specialists when deeper expertise is needed. Advisors who coordinate deliberately with specialists, rather than working around them, are best positioned to meet those expectations.
Compensation Is a Multi-Layered & Ongoing Conversation
In my years working with advisors, teams, and firms, I’ve had to confront the topic of compensation many times. It’s hard to grow when you don’t have the right incentives in place to encourage people to focus on actually doing it and hard to team effectively when people may think they are being treated unfairly.
Broad Rise in US Retail Sales Highlights Resilient Consumer
US retail sales rose by the most in five months in a broad advance, showing consumers continued to spend despite rising gasoline prices.
Riding the Wave…and Minding the Undertow
Last December we published Riding the Wave: The Anatomy of Booms & Bubbles. In it, we argued that the AI spending boom would continue through 2026 without tipping into ‘bubble’ mania, and that the right posture was to stay overweight stocks while favoring US assets. Nine months on, we think that call has aged well.
What History Says About Fed Hikes and Stocks
With so much attention focused on what the Fed might do at its policy meeting this week, it’s a good time to look back at history to get a sense of how stocks might respond should policymakers hike rates as the market now expects. LPL Research had been characterizing the rate decision as a coin flip until Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole meeting and the strong August jobs report.
Should Inflation Defense Be Strategic or Tactical? Both
From the 2020 pandemic to today’s oil shocks, we’re often reminded in recent years that inflation can flare up unexpectedly. We’ve also likely entered an era in which higher inflation may linger for some time. As a result, bond-heavy and income-oriented investors may need to shore up their inflation defense, which we think should combine strategic positioning with tactical maneuvering.
Charting the Structural Growth Opportunity in Health Care Technology
AI-driven healthcare innovation is creating strong investment opportunities by improving efficiency, expanding access, and delivering better patient outcomes.
Markets Tested by Higher Rates and Sticky Inflation
A week of rising oil prices and higher interest rates sent stocks lower across the board as investors increasingly priced in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin a rate-hiking cycle at its September 16 meeting. Following the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, futures markets implied an 88 percent probability that the Fed will, or at least should, raise rates at next week's meeting.
You Cannot Depose a Model
In what is a good sign, many discussions around automation generally and AI specifically are increasingly moving to questions about compliance and liability. Basically, people are asking whether the agentic coworker they just hired is smart enough to trust.
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Is Still On. And So Is the AI Race
An essay from Anthropic PBC’s Dario Amodei saying artificial intelligence companies must “pace the frontier” has got the world talking about a slowdown in their most cutting-edge research. OpenAI’s Sam Altman and SpaceX’s Elon Musk publicly agreed with the post.
A Collaborative Path Forward: Integrating Monte Carlo Modeling, the Actuarial Approach, and Copilot
The future of retirement planning is not a new model replacing an old one, but a more holistic approach that blends rigorous analytics with important client input. Advisors who adopt this integrated model will find that it deepens client conversations, clarifies tradeoffs, improves long-term decision-making.
Missiles, Markets, & Momentum: Why the Market Outlasts the Headlines
Periods like this can feel especially tense, with higher stakes and more urgent headlines. Yet over time, markets have shown they are forward-looking and resilient, absorbing uncertainty rather than freezing in it. While today’s geopolitical backdrop may feel unsettling, it fits a long history of disruptions that markets have ultimately navigated.
From the US Market Desk: From Missouri
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Trump Accounts for Business Owners: Two Decisions, Not One
Most coverage of Trump Accounts treats them as a parenting question, or a discussion comparing them to 529s. For founders and business owners the analysis of them is slightly more nuanced.
Fixed Income ETFs Surge to All-Time Highs Ahead of Pivotal Fed Decision
Demand for fixed income ETFs hit a historic high-water mark in September. Investors and advisors turned to fixed income ETFs at a record-breaking pace, driving 2026 net inflows of $446 billion past all-time levels with months to spare. The massive tide of capital arrives at a critical juncture.
Cheap Drones Are Repricing Global Energy Markets
Last week, the refining margin on European gasoil, the benchmark that sets the price of diesel and heating oil across much of the world, closed at roughly $94 a barrel over Brent crude, according to Bloomberg data. That figure is normally somewhere between $12 and $18.
Expectations for Monetary Policy as Treasury Yields Reach Multi-Year Highs
As policymakers adapt to new leadership, navigate a challenging geopolitical backdrop and contend with meaningful internal debate over the path of interest rates, the stakes remain high. Below, we discuss what to expect from next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and provide perspective on the recent rise of Treasury yields to multi-year highs.
Why 73% of Savers Want an "Easy Button": Inside J.P. Morgan’s Latest DC Plan Survey
According to new data from J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s 2026 Defined Contribution Plan Participant Survey, 73% of savers said they wish they could hit an “easy button” and fully delegate their wealth management.
Strengths & Weaknesses of Advisor Fee–Only Models from the Client Perspective
As I go through the strengths and weaknesses of each model, my goals are to point out where the models are strong and to point out potential weaknesses such as conflicts of interest, which are important to be aware of in working with clients. Although we are all fiduciaries, financial incentives matter because we are all human. I know great advisors across all fee models.
Hike or Hold? Debating the Coming Fed Decision
Heading into the September 16 FOMC meeting, the debate over whether the Fed should raise rates or hold is heated. To help you appreciate the range of views, I present this article as a courtroom exercise. I will let the prosecution make its case for a rate hike, and the defense for a hold.
An Evolution in Fund Structure: ETF Share Classes
ETF share classes represent a structural innovation that combines the benefits of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) within a single pooled portfolio. This evolution expands investor choice, offering both ETF and mutual fund shares under a unified investment strategy.
Advanced 401(k) Optimization Strategies for High-Net-Worth Families
For many investors, a 401(k) is simply a retirement savings account. For high-net-worth families, however, it can become a sophisticated planning tool that supports tax efficiency, wealth accumulation, and long-term legacy objectives.
There’s More Behind the Rise in Treasury Yields
Equity markets generally moved lower as rising yields and energy prices created a more challenging backdrop. Higher yields can be particularly difficult for long-duration equities, where a greater share of expected cash flows sits further into the future.
Are Higher Rates a “Real” Problem?
Some investors are questioning how much further this year’s rally can run with the S&P 500 Index up 12.3% through the first eight months of the year. Encouragingly, history suggests that strong starts tend to persist; when the S&P 500 has gained more than 10% through August it has advanced from September through December in 25 of 28 instances, an 89% positive hit rate.
Fed Preview: Boxed In
Occasionally, we are confronted with decisions where there are no easy options. The prevailing circumstances bound our choices, and we may face criticism no matter what we do. Collectively, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) finds itself in just such a situation as it prepares for its upcoming meeting.
Safety and Yield: Ultrashort Bond ETFs See Greater Demand
Investors can’t get enough of ultrashort bonds. Driven by concerns over high equity valuations and rate volatility as the U.S. Federal Reserve mulls over the direction of interest rates, capital preservation strategies appear to be the elixir to help ease uncertainty. As such, ultrashort bonds have been seeing greater demand as traditional safe havens fall short on yield or carry unwanted duration risk.
Does Your Financial Plan Depend Too Much on One Stock?
One or a few high-performing stocks can provide a big boost to portfolio values. But they’re hard to come by and often struggle to maintain their momentum over time. Because these stocks increase portfolio concentration, investors must balance the risk of overexposure against the tax cost of diversifying. A thoughtful, tax-aware plan may help bring portfolios back in line.
Dodging the September Slump: Inside the 2026 IPO Rebound
Don't let September's macro headline noise fool you. Today’s economic backdrop won’t likely trigger a broad market freeze like 2022, but there will be winners and losers. Cash-rich mega-caps, AI infrastructure plays, and scaled market leaders (the SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI tier) command their own gravity.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation at 3.4% in August
Inflation rose 3.4% year-over-year in August, as it did for the 12 months ending July. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with economist estimates.
Rate Hikes and Market Impacts
History suggests slower Fed tightening tends to support stronger market returns and firmer economic growth, while faster hikes typically deepen drawdowns.
What’s Really Driving up Treasury Yields?
2026 began with 10-year Treasuries right around 4%, which many viewed as a comfortable place. The comfort came from some simple math—2 plus 2 equals 4. The long-term real yield on the 10-year Treasury was around 2% and the Fed’s inflation target is 2%.
Muni Monthly: August 2026
Market volatility persisted in August as investors were again forced to reassess escalating tensions and an exchange of military strikes in the Middle East, while softer labor-market data was countered by mixed inflation readings.
How Stocks Performed Historically After Initial Fed Rate Hikes?
With so much attention focused on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) might do at its policy meeting next week, it’s a good time to look back at history to get a sense of how stocks might respond should the Fed hike rates as the market (barely) expects.
25 Years of Benchmark-Free Investing
Benchmark-Free has been a flagship strategy for half of GMO's history. As we approach our 50th anniversary in 2027, Ben Inker reflects on our first 25 years of Benchmark-Free investing.
The Muni Renaissance: Tax-Free Yields in a High-Rate Era
Elevated interest rates have investors scrambling for yield, and munis have been ready to answer the call with tax-exempt income.
Welcome Back, Balanced Portfolio
For much of the past decade and a half, investors saw little reason to favor bonds over equities. Yields were low and returns were muted, especially in passive strategies. Equities seemed to offer a much clearer path to long-term capital appreciation. For many investors, bonds were, at best, ballast: a dull but generally stable component of a broader portfolio. Then the experience of 2022 had investors questioning even that view, as areas of high quality fixed income generated equity-like losses that eroded much of the prior decade’s real return.
High School Action Plan Part 2: Junior and Senior Years
As students get closer to making a final college decision, the last two years of high school are particularly important. Parents will want to review their financial strategy to meet the costs of college, including a review of current savings, financial and merit aid, scholarships and loan options.
What’s Driving the Rise in Global Bond Yields?
On Friday, the August U.S. employment report surprised to the upside, with 162,000 jobs added during the month. Year to date, the labor market has shown impressive resilience, with hiring also becoming more balanced across sectors than in previous years.
Strong Jobs Report Raise Odds of Rate Hike
Before Friday’s jobs report, it was roughly a toss-up in the financial markets whether the Fed would raise rates at the next meeting in mid-September. Now, the odds favor a rate hike and it’s not hard to see why.
The Hidden Risks in “Safe” Assets: What Investors Often Overlook
When markets become volatile, many investors gravitate toward assets they perceive as “safe.” Cash, certificates of deposit (CDs), money market funds, U.S. Treasury securities, and high-quality bonds can all play an important role in a diversified portfolio. But “safe” doesn’t necessarily mean “risk-free.”
Signs Point to a Normalization, Not a Crisis
LPL Research analyzes rising U.S. debt, Treasury yields, and fiscal trends, highlighting implications for markets and investors.
How Section 351 Can Create Tax Advantages
Join the experts from Stance Capital, SS&C ALPS Advisors, and VettaFi for an educational webcast to learn all about the mechanics of Section 351 and how to determine if an investor qualifies under IRS regulations.
How Firms Can Get Ahead of the Industry’s Talent Shortage Dilemma
As clients come to advisory shops more informed, due to the plethora of financial advice available online, firms will need to be able to “stress test the information or bias” they arrive with. A comprehensive team, with training across advisory areas, can offer clients more depth of service.
Investing Myths Dismantled (Chapter 4 of 5)
Chapter 3 of this series ended with a simple question. If the math so plainly says avoid big losses, respect valuations, and mind your timing, why does so much of the industry preach the opposite?
5 Key Forces Shaping the Market Outlook After Labor Day
Labor Day signals more than summer’s end. It marks a return of focus to the economic and market forces that will shape the remainder of the year. From resilient earnings and record AI spending to rising bond yields and the midterm elections, there is no shortage of forces shaping the market outlook.
The Real Winners of the Venezuela Oil Deal
If you’re planning on driving anywhere this Labor Day weekend, be prepared to pay the highest gas prices ever for this time of year. The national average hit $4.14 per gallon on Thursday, an approximately 30% increase from last year, according to AAA.
The World Rewired—AI, Private Markets & the Future of Investing
To kick off our fourth season of the Alternative Allocations podcast series, I sat down with John Bowman, CEO of CAIA Association, to explore the massive changes underway across our industry. John and I discussed CAIA’s seminal paper “The World Rewired,” and the implications for private markets.
Rates Are High, But Credit Is Easy
The Federal Reserve has spent the past four years trying to cool price increases through higher interest rates. The federal funds rate is still well above its pre-pandemic average, mortgage rates remain elevated, and borrowing costs for households and businesses are considerably higher than they were in the era of ultra-low interest rates.