Join the experts at Envestnet and VettaFi on April 18th for a discussion of how to make “the Intelligent Financial Life” a reality for your clients.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.
Read our latest insight where Dan Suzuki explains what investors need to know about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.
The latest price of home heating oil nationwide dropped to its lowest price of the year at $4.13. The current price is down 5 cents from last week and down 76 cents compared to one year ago.
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
There are five reasons why prospects decide to choose someone else.
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
You provide a lot of value to your clients. Save them from making even a single catastrophic financial mistake and your fees will forever be a moot point.
Help end investors understand that bailing out of bonds could mean locking in losses and missing a potential recovery.
UBS Group AG agreed to buy Credit Suisse Group AG in a historic, government-brokered deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that had started to spread across global financial markets.
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
New research confirms the valuable role that short sellers play in correcting the valuations of overpriced stocks.
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
The politics of the status quo creates the illusion of action, fostering the image that Social Security is a hot topic that has captured the attention of Washington.
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
I've updated this series to include the February release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $48,172, down 8.2% from 50 years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
Portfolio manager Peeyush Mittal and research analyst Swagato Ghosh say India has a fiscal playbook to chart a path of stability and growth.
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
February's ZHVI came in at $327,514, practically unchanged from January and up 6.76% from February 2022. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.71% month-over-month and -1.16% year-over-year.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
When markets react, consider a broader historical perspective before changing your financial course.
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces growing calls from key lawmakers and regulatory experts for an independent investigation into the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, not just an internal review by the Fed board.
Elevated job openings may not give an accurate view of labor market conditions.
The banking earthquake is sending shockwaves through the financial markets. The financial and economic aftershocks, soon to follow, are underappreciated and will prove worse than the earthquake.
If marked to market, assets purchased during quantitative easing are in the red.
Here is a series of helpful tips and strategies (backed by several studies) that will optimize your time and increase the number of prospects and clients attending your webinars.
101 Lesson of Structural growth versus recovery growth investing.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned Silicon Valley Bank’s failure shows cracks widening in global finance, joining other US billionaires raising the alarm on fallout from the lender’s collapse.
The extreme “tail” risk ahead may be disorienting.
We are currently seeing some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
The new SECURE Act 2.0 (Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act) seeks to make it easier for U.S. taxpayers to save for retirement and expands access to retirement plans.
The events that began with Thursday’s tumult in financial stocks and precipitated the FDIC takeover of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were swift.
The headline number for February came in at 90.9, up 0.6 from the previous month, but still below the series average of 98.2. The index is at the 9th percentile in this series.
Why did Silicon Valley Bank fail?
Why don’t sellers of services transparently list one price that includes all fees?
Your clients need a hero – one who can help them navigate the uncertain world and keep them on track to living their best lives no matter what circumstances they face. That hero should be their financial advisor.
Can we aggressively position assets today that have the potential for strong growth in the next 24 months when a tuition bill is due, without exposing those assets to market risk?
Here is some research on why our clients built a sizable portfolio while others had high income but little savings. I’ll address specifics on how to get savers to enjoy their money.
My research confirms what academic theory predicts: There has been no historical alpha among dividend-paying stocks, including those with a history of increasing dividends. Investors are better served by “tilting” allocations to factors that have historically outperformed (e.g., value).
Can India capitalize on supply chain realignment to build its manufacturing sector?
President Biden has proposed a $6.9 trillion budget that calls for reducing deficits and raising taxes on wealthy people and large corporations. There is a lot of spending in this budget that fuels inflation.
Here’s an update on the latest news involving Silicon Valley Bank and the implications for the Fed and markets, from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging.
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
Vanguard Group Inc.’s first new exchange-traded fund in two years is setting sail at a turbulent time for municipal debt.
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
We believe municipal bonds boast several key factors that position them as an attractive asset class in general, but especially so when markets are volatile.
Gen Zers, according to a recent Magnify Money survey, are overly optimistic about being wealthy.
Having raised rates by over 4% over a short period and in a very leveraged economy, the Fed no longer has the big stick it used to have. Therefore, speaking loudly with hawkish rhetoric and narrative must become a priority.
Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?
President Joe Biden is proposing a series of new tax increases on billionaires, rich investors and corporations in his latest proposal for how Congress should prioritize taxes and spending.
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
While 2023 has started on shaky ground for the municipal bond market, there are reasons to be optimistic for more stability ahead, according to Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Director of Municipal Bond Research. She explains why California’s issues don’t reflect all states, and offers reasons for optimism.
Given the topsy-turvy nature of the market thus far in 2023, it remains crucial for investors to know what they are buying—especially as it relates to growth, value, and quality.
Soft landing or hard landing? Recession or no recession? In my mind, there is no question more important.
High-yield investors beware. Junk bonds that were financed at low, fixed rates will eventually mature and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, weak issuers that cannot refinance at higher rates will default.
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
Yep, you read that right. I’m about to teach you how to get new clients for less than $10 a month.
A revised approach to Northern Ireland will lower trade tensions in Europe.
I took ChatGPT for a test drive by directing it to write an article summarizing important tax rule changes introduced by SECURE Act 2.0. The essay it produced was an epic failure.
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
Machine learning shows great promise for empirical asset pricing and has the potential to improve our understanding of expected asset returns.
Any of the variable spending strategies I analyzed will reduce sequence risk in retirement and allow for greater initial spending rates, potentially greater average spending amounts, and a generally more efficient spenddown of assets than the baseline constant inflation-adjusted spending rule.
While there are certainly many complaints that “capitalism” is broken, such is not the case.
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
Today’s inflationary market landscape is fraught with risks for investors. Despite these circumstances, Scott Welch and Kevin Flanagan outline how bond investors can generate yield.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
There’s one strategy that is not only a great wealth-building solution but is also triple tax-advantaged…
We just finished up our annual report on the $20 billion club, and we've concluded that 2022 was a weird year for pension plans.
The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for January, released last Friday, shows that core inflation continues to be well above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 4.71%. The January core CPI release was higher, at 5.38%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
As fourth-quarter earnings rolled in with mixed results, the stock market opened the year in rally mode.
Medical Properties Trust’s dividend at the 2022 rate of $1.16 is safe even if Prospect, its third-largest operator, does not pay a single cent in 2023.
Maybe UFOs are carrying wealthy aliens wanting to buy a lot of stuff and boost our economy. More likely, those forecasting a no landing have a false sense of optimism that the economy will continue to be resilient.
In recent years we have witnessed a surge in sovereign bond defaults in emerging markets.
As a young stockbroker in the 1980s, I was very enamored with T. Boone Pickens.
Making the case for international value investing—thoughts from Templeton Global Equity Group on why now’s the time to consider expanding one’s investment horizons.
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly loss of 2.61%, after a gain of 6.18% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — up from from last month's single "cash" signal.
The Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Index ® this morning, with the headline number coming in at 102.9, a decrease of 3.1 from the downwardly revised final reading of 106.0 in January. This month's reading is worse than the Investing.com forecast of 108.5.
The stock market’s resurgent enthusiasm for Tesla Inc. is poised for a test Wednesday when Elon Musk unveils his latest and much-hyped “master plan” for the electric-vehicle maker.
Tax Planning
Tax Season Should Be About Opportunity, Not Anxiety
Join the experts at Envestnet and VettaFi on April 18th for a discussion of how to make “the Intelligent Financial Life” a reality for your clients.
Growth in Real Money Supply is What is Important for Taming Inflation, and for the Fed
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Echoes Of '08? Don't Bank On It
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
What are JGBs Trying to Tell Us?
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
The Crucial Questions
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
What are JGBs Trying to Tell Us?
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
Don’t Bank On It
Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.
Some Thoughts on Banks
Read our latest insight where Dan Suzuki explains what investors need to know about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.
Weekly Heating Oil Prices: Down 5 Cents
The latest price of home heating oil nationwide dropped to its lowest price of the year at $4.13. The current price is down 5 cents from last week and down 76 cents compared to one year ago.
Alternative Investments Outlook Post-SVB
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
Five Research-Based Reasons Why You Lose Prospects
There are five reasons why prospects decide to choose someone else.
Banking, Inflation, and the Fed: Where Do We Go From Here?
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
Ask Brad: The Toxic Lesson from Dry Cleaners
You provide a lot of value to your clients. Save them from making even a single catastrophic financial mistake and your fees will forever be a moot point.
Keeping Your Bond Perspective: Declines, Rallies and the Role of Bonds
Help end investors understand that bailing out of bonds could mean locking in losses and missing a potential recovery.
A Difficult Job Becomes Even More Difficult
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
UBS to Buy Credit Suisse in $3.3 Billion Deal to End Crisis
UBS Group AG agreed to buy Credit Suisse Group AG in a historic, government-brokered deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that had started to spread across global financial markets.
The Fed’s Got Inflation Backwards
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
A Multi-Asset Perspective on Recent Bank Turmoil: Don’t Lose Sight of the Macro Story
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
New Evidence that Short Sellers Correct Overpriced Stocks
New research confirms the valuable role that short sellers play in correcting the valuations of overpriced stocks.
Pension Reform Showdown: Will The U.S. Follow France’s Bold Retirement Age Changes?
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
The Futile Efforts to Reform Social Security
The politics of the status quo creates the illusion of action, fostering the image that Social Security is a hot topic that has captured the attention of Washington.
The Professor's Portfolio
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
Middle-Class Hourly Wages as of February 2023
I've updated this series to include the February release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $48,172, down 8.2% from 50 years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
India’s Balancing Act
Portfolio manager Peeyush Mittal and research analyst Swagato Ghosh say India has a fiscal playbook to chart a path of stability and growth.
European Banking Sector—Taking Stock After Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse
Implications of SVB and Credit Suisse on the European banking sector—check out highlights from our recent panel discussion with Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist with the Franklin Templeton Institute.
Zillow Home Value Index: February Update
February's ZHVI came in at $327,514, practically unchanged from January and up 6.76% from February 2022. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.71% month-over-month and -1.16% year-over-year.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: February 2023
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Over Time, Markets have Proved Positive and Resilient
When markets react, consider a broader historical perspective before changing your financial course.
Banks and the Butterfly Effect—the Global Ramifications
Financial market volatility has followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, shares his thoughts on possible implications outside the United States.
Powell Faces Bipartisan Chorus Calling for Independent SVB Probe
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces growing calls from key lawmakers and regulatory experts for an independent investigation into the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, not just an internal review by the Fed board.
Are Job Openings Overstated?
Elevated job openings may not give an accurate view of labor market conditions.
The Aftershock That Will Follow Silicon Valley Bank
The banking earthquake is sending shockwaves through the financial markets. The financial and economic aftershocks, soon to follow, are underappreciated and will prove worse than the earthquake.
Central Bank Portfolios Are Underwater
If marked to market, assets purchased during quantitative easing are in the red.
Bring More Attendees to Your Next Webinar
Here is a series of helpful tips and strategies (backed by several studies) that will optimize your time and increase the number of prospects and clients attending your webinars.
Chinese Internet – the Boom and Bust Story
101 Lesson of Structural growth versus recovery growth investing.
Ray Dalio Warns SVB’s Collapse Shows Cracks Widening in Global Finance
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned Silicon Valley Bank’s failure shows cracks widening in global finance, joining other US billionaires raising the alarm on fallout from the lender’s collapse.
Headed For The Tail
The extreme “tail” risk ahead may be disorienting.
February Inflation: The Components
We are currently seeing some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.
SECURE 2.0: Top 5 Items to Discuss with Your Clients
The new SECURE Act 2.0 (Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act) seeks to make it easier for U.S. taxpayers to save for retirement and expands access to retirement plans.
The 2022-2023 Regime Change
The events that began with Thursday’s tumult in financial stocks and precipitated the FDIC takeover of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were swift.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Expectations for Better Business Conditions Remain Low
The headline number for February came in at 90.9, up 0.6 from the previous month, but still below the series average of 98.2. The index is at the 9th percentile in this series.
Making Sense of SVB, a Unique Bank with a Classic Problem
Why did Silicon Valley Bank fail?
How Clients Can Guard Against Junk Fees
Why don’t sellers of services transparently list one price that includes all fees?
Be the Superhero Your Clients Deserve
Your clients need a hero – one who can help them navigate the uncertain world and keep them on track to living their best lives no matter what circumstances they face. That hero should be their financial advisor.
An Annuity Can Fund Looming College Tuition
Can we aggressively position assets today that have the potential for strong growth in the next 24 months when a tuition bill is due, without exposing those assets to market risk?
How to Get Clients to Spend More Money
Here is some research on why our clients built a sizable portfolio while others had high income but little savings. I’ll address specifics on how to get savers to enjoy their money.
The Evidence Against Favoring Dividend-Paying Stocks
My research confirms what academic theory predicts: There has been no historical alpha among dividend-paying stocks, including those with a history of increasing dividends. Investors are better served by “tilting” allocations to factors that have historically outperformed (e.g., value).
India Seeks More Manufacturing
Can India capitalize on supply chain realignment to build its manufacturing sector?
Biden’s $6.9 Trillion Deficit Gamble
President Biden has proposed a $6.9 trillion budget that calls for reducing deficits and raising taxes on wealthy people and large corporations. There is a lot of spending in this budget that fuels inflation.
Silicon Valley Bank Failure Ripples Through the Market
Here’s an update on the latest news involving Silicon Valley Bank and the implications for the Fed and markets, from Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Monetary Cycle Versus Fiscal Cycle: What is the Difference?
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Thousand-Word Equivalents
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this will be the “longest” letter I’ve sent you in a while, as there are quite a few pictures. It may also be the most wide-ranging.
Bitcoin Is A Key Component Of The Great Digital Transformation
Like face recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), mRNA vaccines and other modern technology, Bitcoin is a key component of the ongoing, rapidly accelerating digital transformation.
Vanguard’s First New ETF in Two Years Targets Short-Term Munis
Vanguard Group Inc.’s first new exchange-traded fund in two years is setting sail at a turbulent time for municipal debt.
Stocks Trying to Battle Back From a Two-Day Rout
U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.
Municipal Bond Outlook 2023: Three Reasons for Optimism
We believe municipal bonds boast several key factors that position them as an attractive asset class in general, but especially so when markets are volatile.
Gen Zers Are Overly Optimistic About Being Wealthy
Gen Zers, according to a recent Magnify Money survey, are overly optimistic about being wealthy.
The Fed Must Speak Loudly Because It Carries a Small Stick
Having raised rates by over 4% over a short period and in a very leveraged economy, the Fed no longer has the big stick it used to have. Therefore, speaking loudly with hawkish rhetoric and narrative must become a priority.
The Fed's Financial Accounts: What Are Uncle Sam's Largest Assets?
Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?
Biden to Urge 25% Billionaire Tax, Levies on Rich Investors
President Joe Biden is proposing a series of new tax increases on billionaires, rich investors and corporations in his latest proposal for how Congress should prioritize taxes and spending.
Are Cheap Burgers in Emerging Markets a Good Sign for Investors?
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
Muni Bond Update: Credit Quality Still Looks Strong
While 2023 has started on shaky ground for the municipal bond market, there are reasons to be optimistic for more stability ahead, according to Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Director of Municipal Bond Research. She explains why California’s issues don’t reflect all states, and offers reasons for optimism.
Caveat Emptor: Important Market Shifts Underway
Given the topsy-turvy nature of the market thus far in 2023, it remains crucial for investors to know what they are buying—especially as it relates to growth, value, and quality.
Getting Ahead of Ourselves
Soft landing or hard landing? Recession or no recession? In my mind, there is no question more important.
Gundlach: We Could Have the Worst Default Cycle Ever
High-yield investors beware. Junk bonds that were financed at low, fixed rates will eventually mature and, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, weak issuers that cannot refinance at higher rates will default.
Newsletter Volume 16, No. 1 February 2023
The planet’s billionaires are nearly $2 trillion poorer this year!
How to Get Clients for Less Than $10 a Month
Yep, you read that right. I’m about to teach you how to get new clients for less than $10 a month.
The New Brexit Protocol
A revised approach to Northern Ireland will lower trade tensions in Europe.
A Financial Planner Takes ChatGPT for a Test Drive
I took ChatGPT for a test drive by directing it to write an article summarizing important tax rule changes introduced by SECURE Act 2.0. The essay it produced was an epic failure.
Four Key Questions to Ask Before Making a Hedge Fund Investment
Before making a hedge fund investment, investors and their advisors should consider four key questions.
The Promise of Machine Learning
Machine learning shows great promise for empirical asset pricing and has the potential to improve our understanding of expected asset returns.
A Comparison of Variable Spending Strategies
Any of the variable spending strategies I analyzed will reduce sequence risk in retirement and allow for greater initial spending rates, potentially greater average spending amounts, and a generally more efficient spenddown of assets than the baseline constant inflation-adjusted spending rule.
Capitalism Is Broken If Record Profit Margins Don’t Revert
While there are certainly many complaints that “capitalism” is broken, such is not the case.
Airline Stocks Are Soaring Over The Negative Headlines, Lifted By Positive Earnings
Lufthansa’s blockbuster report is just the latest signal that commercial aviation, one of the hardest-hit industries during the pandemic, may be ready to make a landing again in investors’ portfolios.
What’s Yield Got to Do, Got to Do with It?
Today’s inflationary market landscape is fraught with risks for investors. Despite these circumstances, Scott Welch and Kevin Flanagan outline how bond investors can generate yield.
Bonds Haven’t Been This Attractive Since 2008
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Navigating A Turbulent Environment: EM IG To The Rescue
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets.
The Triple-Tax Advantaged Strategy that Too Few Advisors Use
There’s one strategy that is not only a great wealth-building solution but is also triple tax-advantaged…
$20 Billion Club: It's Been a Minute Since We've Seen Numbers Like This…
We just finished up our annual report on the $20 billion club, and we've concluded that 2022 was a weird year for pension plans.
CPI and PCE: Two Measures of Inflation and Fed Policy
The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for January, released last Friday, shows that core inflation continues to be well above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 4.71%. The January core CPI release was higher, at 5.38%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Mixed Earnings Meet Market Rally: A Stock Investor’s Take
As fourth-quarter earnings rolled in with mixed results, the stock market opened the year in rally mode.
Medical Properties Trust: 11.26% Yield – The Risk is Priced In
Medical Properties Trust’s dividend at the 2022 rate of $1.16 is safe even if Prospect, its third-largest operator, does not pay a single cent in 2023.
The "No Landing" Scenario is as Likely as UFOs
Maybe UFOs are carrying wealthy aliens wanting to buy a lot of stuff and boost our economy. More likely, those forecasting a no landing have a false sense of optimism that the economy will continue to be resilient.
Central Bank Portfolios Are Underwater
If marked to market, assets purchased during quantitative easing are in the red.
The Many Faces of Sovereign Default
In recent years we have witnessed a surge in sovereign bond defaults in emerging markets.
Drilling for Oil on the NYSE
As a young stockbroker in the 1980s, I was very enamored with T. Boone Pickens.
International Equities: Poised for Recovery
Making the case for international value investing—thoughts from Templeton Global Equity Group on why now’s the time to consider expanding one’s investment horizons.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes a Volatile February Down 2.61%
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2023.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly loss of 2.61%, after a gain of 6.18% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, three of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — up from from last month's single "cash" signal.
Consumer Confidence Declines Again in February
The Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Index ® this morning, with the headline number coming in at 102.9, a decrease of 3.1 from the downwardly revised final reading of 106.0 in January. This month's reading is worse than the Investing.com forecast of 108.5.
Tesla’s 70% Rally Faces Key Test With Musk’s Latest Master Plan
The stock market’s resurgent enthusiasm for Tesla Inc. is poised for a test Wednesday when Elon Musk unveils his latest and much-hyped “master plan” for the electric-vehicle maker.