General Electric Co., known now as GE Aerospace, has reclaimed its position as the largest industrial company by market value as jet engine production and after-market service both ramp up.
For the third time in four years, the stock picker beating everyone is Fidelity Investments Inc.’s decoder of computer chips, crushing every measure of performance as the more popular passively managed index funds tracking market benchmarks proved little more than also-rans in 2024.
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
We explore how advancements in indexing solutions have allowed investors to tailor their portfolios according to their specific objectives or risk profiles.
When investors have been looking to allocate funds within the U.S. fixed income markets, credit has seemingly been viewed as being perhaps too “rich,” or expensive, in relative terms.
US equity markets rallied just enough to round out 2024 with all four quarters posting positive returns. The S&P 500® Index finished the fourth quarter up 2.41%, bringing the year’s total return to 25.02%.
Senior Investment Strategist Tracey Manzi notes that the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle should benefit short to intermediate maturities.
A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
Free trade is in trouble. That’s hardly startling news when the US has an avowed protectionist in the White House, but the problem runs deeper than it may at first appear.
The gap between US federal spending and tax revenue is currently bigger, as a share of gross domestic product, than it’s ever been outside of major war or other crisis.
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
From the start of December to their recent peaks, 10-year yields have gained 68 basis points in the U.K., 60 basis points in the U.S., 55 basis points in Germany and 48 basis points in Canada.
Some soft data metrics have started to rebound sharply and catch back up to relatively resilient hard data, but it's too soon to say whether the gap is definitively closing.
State and federal agencies are providing immediate assistance and financial aid for essentials for wildfire victims in California. Our Bill Cass shares some financial strategies to secure emergency funds and plan finances.
Big US banks marked the beginning of the Q4 earnings season when they released results last week, and overall they were positive. Because of their position opening up the earnings season they tend to set the tone for things to come.
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
As economists and financial market forecasters, we are constantly amazed at how so many people analyze, forecast, research, and discuss important topics without ever addressing the elephant(s) in the room.
Value stocks hit some investors’ radar screens with a performance uptick in the second half of 2024. Yet many portfolios may be unwittingly underweighted in this popular equity style.
Rebuilding is the first of many challenges from natural disasters.
This past week brought promising news for the markets and the broader economy. Inflation data came in at or below expectations, while economic indicators, including housing starts and retail sales, demonstrated surprising resilience.
Since the start of the new year, the bond market has been urging Congress to come to terms with America’s spiraling budget problems. Soon it might be demanding immediate action.
US government bond yields approached their lowest levels of the year after President Donald Trump refrained from immediately implementing tariffs and oil prices declined, easing inflation concerns.
Donald Trump opened his second term as US president with a market-jolting recalibration of his tariff policies, in a sign of turbulence ahead for investors and corporate executives.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
We understand that the monetary policy playbook since the Bernanke Fed and the Great Financial Crisis has changed considerably.
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
In 2025, two titans of technology stand at the forefront of innovation: quantum computing and robotics. Each offers a vision of a future transformed, where the impossible becomes achievable and industries are redefined.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that President Donald Trump signed into law in December 2017 imposed a $10,000 limit on the amount of state and local taxes that can be deducted on a federal income tax return.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely protect US stocks from a big selloff, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals for lower corporate taxes.
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
There are a few things it makes sense to get a start on when a new year begins. One is tax-loss harvesting.
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
At CES 2025, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, offered a compelling vision of AI’s future—one that combines bold technological advances with practical applications.
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
Surging long-term interest rates and stubborn inflation are inflaming divisions among congressional Republicans over paying for the sweeping tax cuts Donald Trump promised, complicating the path to passage with the party’s already tenuous majority.
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
Reflecting ongoing uncertainty around inflation and the trajectory of monetary policy, yield volatility posed challenges in 2024. Yet it also highlighted the importance of tax-efficient strategies like loss harvesting in fixed income portfolios.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares an outlook for U.S. growth, inflation, employment and interest rates.
The Social Security Fairness Act is expected to enhance benefits for many starting in 2024. Our Bill Cass explains the significance of the new law.
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Natural disasters test—but don’t break—municipalities’ resilience.
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.
In December, nominal home values increased for a 21st straight months to a new all-time high. However, once we adjust for inflation, "real" home values declined for an 8th consecutive month to their lowest level since June 2021.
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
The latest updates on the labor market and consumer prices show President-elect Donald Trump inherits an economy where inflation is poised to return to the Federal Reserve’s target later this year.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
The calendar page has turned, and that means we have the opportunity to get 2025 off to a good start.
I publish an updated version of my New Year “investor” resolutions yearly. The purpose of the process is to take an annual inventory of what I did and did not do over the last year to improve my portfolio management practices.
US equities had a stellar 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, but the year ended on a softer note. The sharp rise in bond yields has caught the market's eye
Direct indexing has been around for more than 30 years, yet many people still don’t know what it is or how it continues to grow and evolve.
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
Active fixed income could stand out in 2025, with active offering a way to refresh bond portfolios and allocations.
We need to face the reality that we’ve chosen a system that prioritizes lower taxes over centralized health care.
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Over the past few months, I’ve had occasion to speak at a number of conferences concerned with the impact of artificial intelligence on financial jobs.
Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
The December PMI report, released on January 5, 2025, indicates that the U.S. services sector continued to grow, albeit at a measured pace, suggesting resilience in certain areas of the economy.
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
On this episode of “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth joined Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about the Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF (FBCG).
When and how will new policies take shape?
We are pro-risk, with the biggest overweight in U.S. stocks, yet eye three areas that could spur a view change.
The US labor market has remained relatively strong, but the trend over the last year or so has been one of normalization back to the pre-pandemic levels.
The recent surge in bond yields is directing renewed attention to America’s grim fiscal outlook.
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
Rough times are coming, yes, but I think we have at least 12 good months before the worst gets here. Let’s look at some of the reasons why things should be okay and then look at some of the potential problems.
Gold certainly had a great 2024, but 2025 is already shaping up to be an opportune year to build up more exposure through ETFs.
US Treasuries plunged as evidence of a resilient labor market pushed traders to shift their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate cut to the second half of the year.
As we enter 2025, there has been a lot of conjecture about a return to the 5% threshold.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes break down the factors likely to impact economic growth, inflation and interest rates.
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.
Tax Planning
GE Needs a Greater Balance Between Dividends and Buybacks
General Electric Co., known now as GE Aerospace, has reclaimed its position as the largest industrial company by market value as jet engine production and after-market service both ramp up.
America’s Best Stock Picker Keeps Beating Passive Funds
For the third time in four years, the stock picker beating everyone is Fidelity Investments Inc.’s decoder of computer chips, crushing every measure of performance as the more popular passively managed index funds tracking market benchmarks proved little more than also-rans in 2024.
Top 5 Issues Institutional Investors Should Be Thinking About in 2025
While every new year arrives with its own unique set of opportunities and challenges for institutional investors, we believe 2025 could offer more than the typical share.
Index Investing as an Active Decision: An Exploration of Evolution and Customization
We explore how advancements in indexing solutions have allowed investors to tailor their portfolios according to their specific objectives or risk profiles.
Just How 'Rich' Is U.S. Credit?
When investors have been looking to allocate funds within the U.S. fixed income markets, credit has seemingly been viewed as being perhaps too “rich,” or expensive, in relative terms.
Harvesting Tax Losses When Markets Keep Posting Positive Returns
US equity markets rallied just enough to round out 2024 with all four quarters posting positive returns. The S&P 500® Index finished the fourth quarter up 2.41%, bringing the year’s total return to 25.02%.
2025 Fixed Income Outlook
Senior Investment Strategist Tracey Manzi notes that the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle should benefit short to intermediate maturities.
U.S. Household Incomes: A 50+ Year Perspective
A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
How Trump’s Protectionism Could Increase Free Trade
Free trade is in trouble. That’s hardly startling news when the US has an avowed protectionist in the White House, but the problem runs deeper than it may at first appear.
Are US Taxes Too High or Too Low? Choose Your Chart
The gap between US federal spending and tax revenue is currently bigger, as a share of gross domestic product, than it’s ever been outside of major war or other crisis.
2025 Market Outlook: Rational Exuberance?
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
Yields Flashing Yellow
From the start of December to their recent peaks, 10-year yields have gained 68 basis points in the U.K., 60 basis points in the U.S., 55 basis points in Germany and 48 basis points in Canada.
Hard to Handle: A Look at Hard vs. Soft Data
Some soft data metrics have started to rebound sharply and catch back up to relatively resilient hard data, but it's too soon to say whether the gap is definitively closing.
Rebuilding Hope: Immediate Assistance and Financial Guidance for Wildfire Victims
State and federal agencies are providing immediate assistance and financial aid for essentials for wildfire victims in California. Our Bill Cass shares some financial strategies to secure emergency funds and plan finances.
Banks Kick Q4 Earnings Season Off with a Bang As CEO Sentiment Improves
Big US banks marked the beginning of the Q4 earnings season when they released results last week, and overall they were positive. Because of their position opening up the earnings season they tend to set the tone for things to come.
Q4 2024 Commentary: Defying Expectations, Embracing Optimization
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
The 60/40 Model and The Elephant in the Room
As economists and financial market forecasters, we are constantly amazed at how so many people analyze, forecast, research, and discuss important topics without ever addressing the elephant(s) in the room.
Value Stocks: Why You Might Be Underweight and Unaware
Value stocks hit some investors’ radar screens with a performance uptick in the second half of 2024. Yet many portfolios may be unwittingly underweighted in this popular equity style.
Earth, Wind, and Fire
Rebuilding is the first of many challenges from natural disasters.
Inflation Tames, Economy Gains: A Resilient Start to 2025
This past week brought promising news for the markets and the broader economy. Inflation data came in at or below expectations, while economic indicators, including housing starts and retail sales, demonstrated surprising resilience.
Restoring Fiscal Control Can’t Wait Much Longer
Since the start of the new year, the bond market has been urging Congress to come to terms with America’s spiraling budget problems. Soon it might be demanding immediate action.
US Bonds Advance as Trump Delays on Tariffs, Oil Prices Fall
US government bond yields approached their lowest levels of the year after President Donald Trump refrained from immediately implementing tariffs and oil prices declined, easing inflation concerns.
Trump’s Tariff Shifts Are a Warning for Corporate America to Expect Whiplash
Donald Trump opened his second term as US president with a market-jolting recalibration of his tariff policies, in a sign of turbulence ahead for investors and corporate executives.
2025 Municipal Bond Sector Outlook: Stability and Resiliency
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
A Possible Storm
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
Is This What the Dr. Ordered?
We understand that the monetary policy playbook since the Bernanke Fed and the Great Financial Crisis has changed considerably.
Are California Fires a Risk to the Muni Market?
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
Titans of Tomorrow: Quantum Computing and Robotics on the Brink of Revolution
In 2025, two titans of technology stand at the forefront of innovation: quantum computing and robotics. Each offers a vision of a future transformed, where the impossible becomes achievable and industries are redefined.
Raising the SALT Cap Is Supposed to Benefit Whom, Exactly?
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that President Donald Trump signed into law in December 2017 imposed a $10,000 limit on the amount of state and local taxes that can be deducted on a federal income tax return.
BofA’s Hartnett Says Trump Trade to Shield US Stocks From Plunge
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely protect US stocks from a big selloff, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals for lower corporate taxes.
Tariffs, Tempests, Turnarounds: What’s Next for Renewable Energy?
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
Direct Indexing: An Easy Way to Tax-Loss Harvest All Year Round
There are a few things it makes sense to get a start on when a new year begins. One is tax-loss harvesting.
Schwab Market Perspective: Markets vs. Economy
Strong U.S. economic data has spurred a strong rise in Treasury yields but a tepid response in the stock market. Uncertainty likely will continue in coming months.
Reviewing Market and Economic Performance During the Biden Administration
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
The Future of AI: How NVIDIA’s Vision Is Shaping Our World
At CES 2025, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, offered a compelling vision of AI’s future—one that combines bold technological advances with practical applications.
2025 Credit Outlook: On Firm Ground, Despite Shifting Political Sands
New policies could disrupt markets, but high starting yields and strong demand for income should provide ballast.
Surging Long-Term Rates Stoke GOP Tensions on Paying for Tax Cut
Surging long-term interest rates and stubborn inflation are inflaming divisions among congressional Republicans over paying for the sweeping tax cuts Donald Trump promised, complicating the path to passage with the party’s already tenuous majority.
Elon Musk’s Robotopia Will Bloom in Aging Europe
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
Investment Considerations for the Second Trump Presidency
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
A Deep Dive on the Recent Spike in U.S. Treasury Yields
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
A US ETF Split Surge in Q4 2024: Digging Into the Data and What It Means for Investors
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
Is Your Fixed Income Manager Delivering Tax Alpha?
Reflecting ongoing uncertainty around inflation and the trajectory of monetary policy, yield volatility posed challenges in 2024. Yet it also highlighted the importance of tax-efficient strategies like loss harvesting in fixed income portfolios.
US Economic Outlook: Pre-Season Prospects
The Northern Trust Economics team shares an outlook for U.S. growth, inflation, employment and interest rates.
Social Security Changes Mean Higher Benefits for Certain Public Workers
The Social Security Fairness Act is expected to enhance benefits for many starting in 2024. Our Bill Cass explains the significance of the new law.
Will Higher Rates Doom Stocks? Not Necessarily
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Assessing the Potential Impact of California’s Wildfires on Municipal Bonds
Natural disasters test—but don’t break—municipalities’ resilience.
Balancing Caution and Optimism: Navigating 2025’s Market Dynamics
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
2024 and 2025 Investment Insights: The Magnificent 7 Stocks, Sector Growth, and Emerging Themes
Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Value Falls to 3.5 Year Low
In December, nominal home values increased for a 21st straight months to a new all-time high. However, once we adjust for inflation, "real" home values declined for an 8th consecutive month to their lowest level since June 2021.
US Bond ‘Death Spiral’ Risk Brushed Aside by Foreign Funds
Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat.
Wall Street Has Best CPI Day Since at Least 2023: Markets Wrap
Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief after a surprise slowdown in inflation spurred a stock rally and a plunge in bond yields, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve is on track to keep cutting rates this year.
The Inflation Genie Is Moving to the White House
The latest updates on the labor market and consumer prices show President-elect Donald Trump inherits an economy where inflation is poised to return to the Federal Reserve’s target later this year.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
New Congress Faces Massive Policy Agenda
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
Transforming 2024 Insights Into 2025 Action
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Why More Asset Managers Are Outsourcing or Co-sourcing Trading
Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.
Tariff Threats Boost Silver & Copper Prices
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
Real Middle Class Wages as of December 2024
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: December 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Ticks Up to 2.9% in December
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
Tax Planning in 2025: Five Key Topics to Discuss With Your Clients Now
The calendar page has turned, and that means we have the opportunity to get 2025 off to a good start.
Investor Resolutions For 2025
I publish an updated version of my New Year “investor” resolutions yearly. The purpose of the process is to take an annual inventory of what I did and did not do over the last year to improve my portfolio management practices.
Bond Yields Surge’s Potential Impacts on the Equity Market
US equities had a stellar 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, but the year ended on a softer note. The sharp rise in bond yields has caught the market's eye
How Parametric Strives to Stay Ahead in Direct Indexing
Direct indexing has been around for more than 30 years, yet many people still don’t know what it is or how it continues to grow and evolve.
2025 Outlook: Run It Back
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Europe Moves Further Away From Russian Gas
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Asset Allocation Interactive at 10 Years: The Good, the Not Too Bad, and the Ugly
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
The Case for Active Fixed Income in 2025
Active fixed income could stand out in 2025, with active offering a way to refresh bond portfolios and allocations.
The Missing Piece in America’s Healthcare Debate
We need to face the reality that we’ve chosen a system that prioritizes lower taxes over centralized health care.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Surges to Six-Year High
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Don’t Bank on Your Banking Job Outlasting AI
Over the past few months, I’ve had occasion to speak at a number of conferences concerned with the impact of artificial intelligence on financial jobs.
2025 Political Outlook
Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.
What We're Worrying About
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
Health Check: How Is the Global Economy Holding Up?
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
Private Credit Outlook: Expanding the Universe
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
PMI Report Highlights: Inflation Pressures Persist Amid Services Sector Growth
The December PMI report, released on January 5, 2025, indicates that the U.S. services sector continued to grow, albeit at a measured pace, suggesting resilience in certain areas of the economy.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2023
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF (FBCG)
On this episode of “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth joined Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about the Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF (FBCG).
Washington's Time Line
When and how will new policies take shape?
Triggers to Change Our Pro-Risk View
We are pro-risk, with the biggest overweight in U.S. stocks, yet eye three areas that could spur a view change.
Labor Market Strong, But Normalization Continues
The US labor market has remained relatively strong, but the trend over the last year or so has been one of normalization back to the pre-pandemic levels.
Surging Bond Yields Make a Strong Case for Fiscal Sanity
The recent surge in bond yields is directing renewed attention to America’s grim fiscal outlook.
The Top 10 U.S. Aerospace and Defense Contractors
The aerospace and defense industry plays a pivotal role in both national security and the stock market. With U.S. defense spending leading the world, the largest contractors are well-positioned for growth amid rising global tensions.
A Partly Cloudy Year
Rough times are coming, yes, but I think we have at least 12 good months before the worst gets here. Let’s look at some of the reasons why things should be okay and then look at some of the potential problems.
Gold Investments Still Shine This Year
Gold certainly had a great 2024, but 2025 is already shaping up to be an opportune year to build up more exposure through ETFs.
US 30-Year Yield Hits 5% as Traders Push Back Next Fed Rate Cut
US Treasuries plunged as evidence of a resilient labor market pushed traders to shift their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate cut to the second half of the year.
Five Alive: Where Is the Treasury 10-Year Yield Headed?
As we enter 2025, there has been a lot of conjecture about a return to the 5% threshold.
2025 Economic Outlook
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes break down the factors likely to impact economic growth, inflation and interest rates.
Q4 Recap: US Growth Closes the Year on Top
U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.