Risk Management

The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged in July, with three participants dissenting in favor of a hike. Prior to the meeting, markets had priced roughly a one-third probability of a rate hike, so the hold was dovish relative to market pricing.

Healthcare systems across the country are facing a difficult reality. Costs are rising faster than revenues, balance sheets are under pressure, the pacing of private market allocations are harder to manage, and liquidity has become an important topic for many organizations.

Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to remain ‘on hold’, keeping the fed funds trading range at 3.50%–3.75%. Although there had been earlier conjecture in the money and bond markets the Fed may raise rates at the July gathering, that sentiment ultimately faded, and the final result was largely expected.

U.S. equities finished lower last week as investors weighed an escalating conflict with Iran against renewed concern over the scale of AI-related spending. The technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite was the worst performer, falling 2.1 per cent, while the S&P 500, an index of the largest U.S. companies, declined 0.6 per cent.

Private equity has become easier than ever for individual investors to buy. Founders, executives, physicians, and business owners now regularly see private funds offered through banks, wealth platforms, feeders, evergreen vehicles, or registered interval funds. However, just because these funds are more readily available, and at lower minimums, does not mean they should immediately be invested in.

Artificial intelligence is a transformative new technology, but we believe that it’s likely to follow a familiar pattern. From spreadsheets to the internet, innovations have historically given early adopters an edge—for a time. In our view, the ability to maintain that advantage depends much more on how effectively an asset manager integrates it throughout the organization.

South Korea and Taiwan are grabbing the majority of financial news headlines when it comes to international exposure, but a peek inside Latin America reveals potential opportunities. Brazil, in particular, could be offering investors ample value in both equities and bonds beyond those aforementioned countries already benefiting from the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout.

A continued escalation in the Middle East, where the Iranian-backed Houthis joined the conflict in an attempt to disrupt Saudi Arabian crude shipments that pass through the Red Sea via the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, drove oil prices higher, while new tariff announcements and Alphabet's earnings release created headwinds for equities.

Leverage, ratings arbitrage, liquidity transformation, and a growing willingness to embrace complexity and illiquidity are becoming more visible across parts of the financial system.

With the US-Iran conflict nearing the five-month mark, equity markets have mostly shrugged off the latest escalation. On one hand, that’s understandable – a healthy economy and record corporate profits continue to support the market’s fundamentals. But a note of caution is warranted.

Without the support of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it’s been a lethargic year in terms of performance by municipal bonds and the related ETFs, but that doesn’t mean advisors and fixed income investors should ignore this bond segment.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

On a recent episode of the Money Metals Podcast, host Mike Maharrey welcomed veteran market strategist Gregory T. Weldon, publisher of the Global Macro Strategy Report, for a wide-ranging discussion on precious metals, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, artificial intelligence, and global macroeconomic trends.

For many years, globalization felt like a one-way street. Supply chains stretched effortlessly across continents. Companies built “just-in-time” systems that assumed goods, data, and capital would flow smoothly around the world. Investors could buy a global index fund and feel reasonably confident that they were capturing the benefits of ever-closer integration.

If you own treasuries, you need to make two separate decisions rather than one blended bet. The liquidity sleeve holds the bill exposure and does the work people mistakenly ask the long end to do. The duration sleeve stays deliberately small, sized as recession insurance rather than as a conviction call on falling inflation.

The structural backdrop for U.S. inflation increasingly suggests that the long run equilibrium range is migrating from roughly 1.5–3.5% toward 3.5–4.5%, with a significant risk of episodes of inflation above 5%. An important core reason is the steady erosion of the disinflationary architecture that dominated the 1990–2020 period, even as various cyclical pressures also play a role.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that tariff tensions between the United States and the rest of the world won’t be going away any time soon. Last Friday, the U.S. imposed a series of tariffs on 60 different trading partners, including China, Canada, and the European Union.

On July 28, Morgan Stanley launched two new spot crypto ETFs on NYSE Arca. The Morgan Stanley Ethereum Trust (MSSE) and the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust (MSOL) provide spot price exposure to underlying ethereum (ETH) and solana (SOL), alongside additional distributions from staking yields.

Brent crude crossed above $100 a barrel this week, all due to a 20-mile-wide stretch of water some 6,500 miles away from the U.S. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—the Persian Gulf bottleneck that carried roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil before the fighting started—has fallen to virtually zero.

As markets place a greater premium on shareholder-friendly capital allocation, companies that consistently combine buybacks with dividends may be better positioned to outperform.

June may have proven to be a difficult month for silver investors, but it’s likely far too soon to give up on the precious metal. To better understand this, it’s important to contextualize why silver’s price is struggling and why the metal’s long-term opportunities are still there.

Oil has staged an impressive rebound this month as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has re-escalated. The memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 created a 60-day window for negotiations, but the diplomatic opening lasted only a few weeks. Both sides subsequently accused the other of violating the peace agreement, and military operations have resumed.

Pensions are as healthy as they’ve been for a long while. Maintaining tried and true investment strategies has led the way to current funding levels and may support pension stability for years to come.

The equity bull market is expected to continue through the second half of 2026, supported by resilient U.S. growth, AI investment and solid earnings.

In this midyear global outlook summary, the authors revisit Vanguard’s economic and market outlooks and assess how our views have evolved since the start of the year.

The ETF market saw a push in capital away from the concentrated U.S. tech sector to defensive broad market exposure, short duration bonds, and commodities. The shift in flows is amplified by the semiconductor market pullback, interest rate uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Emerging markets are quietly having their best decade in a generation, and most global investors still don’t own enough. The case for investing in emerging markets today is not the tired characterisation of a high growth, low valuation opportunity.

Healthcare systems across the country are facing a difficult reality. Costs are rising faster than revenues, balance sheets are under pressure, the pacing of private market allocations are harder to manage, and liquidity has become an important topic for many organizations.

It may seem premature to focus on the November US midterm elections. Polls will shift, economic data will evolve and unexpected events will reshape the political landscape in the months ahead.

Today we’ll consider the interaction between long-term interest rates, the Fed’s limited ability to influence them, inflation and the housing market. And because home prices are the biggest concern for many households, we’ll start with a look at the latest changes there. And then look at the Federal Reserve’s likely reaction.

Election season often follows a familiar script. Investors debate congressional control, speculate on policy outcomes and search for clues about what markets might do next.

The U.S. energy sector has outperformed in 2026, driven primarily by geopolitical-related supply fears, elevated oil prices, and rising demand from the AI infrastructure buildout. While broad energy funds have also surged, investors can potentially enhance exposure by targeting specific segments of the energy market.

In June, market news continued to be dominated by the Middle East conflict as frequent flare-ups in hostilities gave way to repeated ceasefire efforts and the signing of a high-level memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.

Research Affiliates and PIMCO leadership analyze key 2026 midyear market shifts, warning of elevated U.S. and AI equity valuations.

During periods of elevated market stress, including those that see pinched corporate bonds, collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) often outperform other corporate bond assets. Add to that, CLOs often emerge from those rough patches in strong form, delivering impressive returns a year after downturns.

Equity markets have shown resilience amid persistent headwinds, supported by index evolution and earnings strength

Russ Koesterich explains gold’s recent fall and lays out his argument for why investors should continue to hold a modest position in their portfolios.

It's difficult to call any stretch a calm, quiet summer week, but this one would seemingly fit the bill. Earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), and IBM (IBM) are the standouts, along with a slew of cyclicals reporting Q2 results.​

Resilient earnings, improving industrial activity and the AI investment cycle should continue to support equities, according to Putnam Equity’s Shep Perkins. But the same forces driving the market higher are also making companies harder to value.

The summer has once again brought a miasma of wildfire smoke across wide stretches of the nation, leading to hazy views and slower activity. The clouds in our outlook are not merely atmospheric. A failed ceasefire and renewed conflict in the Middle East have created new reasons to worry about economic performance.

Inflation remains above target, especially the Federal Reserve’s preferred core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation measure, as choppy data have challenged the view that disinflation will proceed smoothly.

Kevin Warsh’s early overhaul of Federal Reserve communication and policymaking suggests investors should prepare for a higher-for-longer rate environment with greater uncertainty around policy signals.

The World Cup games that went into extra time were reminders of just how tough it can be for players to keep up their momentum over the long haul.

Investors continue to benefit from two powerful tailwinds: strong stock-market performance and bond yields that remain attractive compared with much of the post-financial-crisis period. Higher yields have improved the income generated by fixed income portfolios and given investors more flexibility to balance income, liquidity, and interest rate risk.

AI continues to evolve. Early offerings in the 2010s around machine learning, natural language processing, and predictive analytics helped ignite the Big Data era and allow for the ingestion and processing of both structured and unstructured data at previously unimaginable speeds and volumes.

In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.

Last week’s dominant story was the sharp unwinding of the momentum trade that has carried the market for months. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) declined 10 per cent over the week and is down 21 per cent from June’s peak. Bear markets are defined as drawdowns of 20 per cent or more.

The prime culprit was renewed questioning of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout given the increasing amount of capital investment needed to bring it to life and the corresponding costs for those who use the technology weighed against its potential productivity benefits.

The first half of 2026 was shaped by market-moving headlines. The conflict in the Middle East was the most significant story, triggering a short-term market sell-off.

The relative cheapness of Treasuries versus interest rate swaps mechanically affects how corporate bond spreads are measured, but it appears to have limited influence on how corporate bond spreads actually behave.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

The equity bull market is expected to continue through the second half of 2026, supported by resilient U.S. growth, AI investment and solid earnings.

LPL Research analyzes China’s declining crude imports, inflation risks, and the resilient U.S. economy driving above-trend growth.

A Roland Berger study finds family offices moving capital into infrastructure and private equity while retreating from riskier bets abroad.

VettaFi’s Midyear Market Outlook symposium Thursday saw industry leaders take on the big questions. Where is the market going? How should investors and advisors navigate uncertainty and potential volatility? Leaders from Fidelity Investments and Invesco both joined for one of the early segments, focused on innovative U.S. strategies.

As we move into the second half of 2026, U.S. large-cap stocks may be on pace to deliver their fourth straight year of double-digit gains, with the S&P 500 Index up 11.4% through July 10, 2026.

Financial markets were eventful this week, with key inflation reports, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Warsh’s first semiannual testimony to Congress, renewed Middle East tensions, and the start of earnings season all helping shape the narrative.