Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam notes with volatility on the rise, maintaining a long-term view is key.
After sparking the steepest plunge in financial markets since the global pandemic five years ago, President Donald Trump’s administration made another dramatic pivot in its trade war strategy on April 9: It paused for 90 days the “reciprocal” tariffs that had been in effect for less than 24 hours.
Tariff Turbulence. The President’s long-anticipated tariff announcement on April 2 has come and gone. Our hopes for some clarity, so the uncertainty weighing on confidence and the equity market could subside, were dashed after we heard the breadth and magnitude of the administration’s tariff plan.
Economic activity hit a soft patch in the first quarter—whether it was fueled by the big pullback in confidence or one-off factors such as cold weather, a harsh flu season and an acceleration of imports ahead of pre- announced tariffs, our economist expects the slowdown will prove short-lived.
Happy National Countdown Day! Yes, you read that right—today is a day to celebrate the excitement and sometimes anxious anticipation that comes with planning for an upcoming event.
Keep calm and carry on. Recent weeks have seen financial markets rattled by swirling news headlines, tariff whiplash, and rising economic uncertainty.
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
We highlight some underreported positive developments that could keep economic growth on track and support higher equity prices in the months ahead.
We detail some key factors driving the recent market volatility and provide our perspective on how we believe these events may unfold and impact the economy and financial markets.
Are European equities poised for a sustained recovery relative to U.S. equities? We outline five reasons why, as long-term investors, we continue to favor U.S. equities over European equities.
financial markets are becoming uneasy as President Trump follows through on his campaign promises to impose or threaten new tariffs to improve trade imbalances or achieve some of his policy priorities
We provide an update on the 4Q24 earnings season and explain why our positive outlook on tech- related companies remains unchanged.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
As we close the chapter on Biden’s presidency, we take a moment to reflect on his legacy.
US equities had a stellar 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, but the year ended on a softer note. The sharp rise in bond yields has caught the market's eye
As we turn the page on 2024 and look ahead into 2025, the key question on investors' minds is: can 2024’s positive momentum in the economy and financial markets continue into 2025?
The year ahead may present challenges as markets and the economy look to maintain momentum.
December's market activity highlights the need for caution in the near term.
Happy Holidays! As the page for the new calendar year will soon turn, three cheers for a happy, healthy, and prosperous new year! With 2024 rapidly drawing to a close, we reflect on the year and all that’s transpired—our readers are wonderful, the economy remains in good shape, and market returns have been stellar for those who participate.
The markets sure had a lot to process this year – from surprisingly resilient economic data, to the Fed kicking off its easing cycle to an unprecedented presidential election season.
As we look through our financial lens and reflect upon everything that has transpired in 2024, we have compiled a list of the top ten economic and market-oriented things that we are most grateful for this year.
Wait, what? The Fed cut interest rates and bond yields went up, not down. Yes, you read that right.
With the outcome of the election now known, we will continue to assess how policy changes impact our broader view.
Get ready to ‘roll back’ the clocks! That’s right, Daylight Savings Time (DST) ends this weekend. This twice-a-year ritual is followed by every US state (except Arizona and Hawaii) and nearly 70 countries across the globe, but not everyone supports it.
The long and winding road to one of the most unusual presidential elections in history is coming to an end – with Election Day now just 11 days away.
The S&P 500 is on track to deliver its second consecutive year of 20+% returns – a milestone it has not achieved since 1998. It is also on pace to deliver its strongest performance leading into an election year since 1932.
Since hitting the October 12, 2022, low, the S&P 500 has climbed 65.9%! By historical standards, there is still plenty of room for the current bull market to run
Just like road trips can bring unexpected detours, the economy and financial markets are at their own crossroads: recession or soft landing?
As we look at today’s economy and financial markets, we are at a crossroads: Will it be a long straight highway to a soft landing, or will it be a bumpy road to recession?
The economy reached an inflection point, with labor market conditions squarely in focus.
The seasons are changing. This weekend marks the autumn equinox—a time of year when the days get shorter, the weather gets cooler, and the leaves start to turn (at least for our friends in the north). While our calendars will show that fall has officially arrived, it may not feel like it as much of the nation will be enjoying unseasonably warm weather.
The time has come! After the most aggressive tightening cycle in modern history, the Fed is ready to turn the page and begin dialing back its policy restraint after the second longest ‘on hold’ period (14 months) in history. Barring any surprises, the Fed should lower interest rates at its meeting next week—the first rate cut in over four years—in the hopes of preserving a soft landing for the economy.
Fed officials must recalibrate their policy stance to ensure the economy stays on solid footing to achieve that elusive soft landing they have been aiming for after their quest to quash inflation.
Happy National Cheap Flight Day! Yes, you heard that right—there is a national celebration day to mark the start of a lull in travel demand. Who knew this would be a day to celebrate? Regardless, it’s good news for consumers as airfares should continue their recent downward trend!
This week marks the ‘unofficial’ end to 2Q24 earnings season – and aside from a few wobbles, it has been reasonably good. S&P 500 earnings growth came in at a solid 11.2% YoY pace – its best quarterly performance since 4Q21.
During volatile times, it is important to maintain perspective, stay focused on your long-term objectives, and avoid knee-jerk reactions based on the latest twists and turns in the market.
Take the market narrative with a grain of salt and look at the fundamentals in determining your outlook for the economy and financial markets. We ultimately believe this soft patch of data will prove to a be a ‘growth scare,’ not a ‘recession reality.’
Following the historic decision by President Biden to drop out of the 2024 race, Raymond James CIO Larry Adam provides insight into his team's economic and market outlook.
This week marks the official start to 2Q24 earnings season, with the big banks among the first to report. While much of the last six weeks has been dominated by the softening macro backdrop, the S&P 500 looked past the weakening data – notching 37 record closes already this year.
We’re borrowing from the upcoming Paris Summer Olympics for our quarterly theme – with a twist. Instead of using the most popular events (like gymnastics, swimming, and track & field) to express our views, we’ll go beyond the spotlight.
Key Takeaways
After the S&P 500’s incredible run—up 57% from its October 2022 lows and with an election on the horizon, its normal for investors to wonder whether to take some chips off the table or hold off on investing to see what happens.
The S&P 500 surpassed its 27th record high for the year this week—and still notching more (up to 29 already!)—driven by rising earnings, cooling inflation, and an economy that remains on solid ground.
We connect the dots between the micro data points (what we learned during 1Q earnings season) and what we expect the forthcoming macro data will reveal about the state of the economy.
As we set our sights on the summer, here are five dynamics that could drive the financial markets between Memorial Day and Labor Day:
As goes the consumer, so goes the U.S. economy. As Wall Street knows, the importance of the consumer cannot be overstated. That’s because consumer spending is the main engine of growth, representing ~70% of US economic activity – nearly 10% more of the economy than it did in the early 1980s.
Happy National Small Business Day! Every year on May 10, small businesses are officially recognized for their contributions to the US economy. And rightfully so. Small businesses are the backbone of the US economy.
A recap of the important drivers, along with our views on how things will play out over the rest of the year.
Our top five picks for events that have the potential to be market moving.
We put the recent market movements in perspective, which have been driven by time (it has been a while since we had a 5%+ pullback), overly optimistic, complacent market sentiment, and higher Treasury yields amid persistent inflationary pressures and signs of a more patient Fed.
