Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.13% in June and was up 3.81% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.24% month-over-month and up 0.14% year-over-year.
In the week ending July 25th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 197,000. This represents an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 201,000.
As families prepare for college move-in season, the packing list usually starts with the obvious essentials: bedding, a laptop, chargers, school supplies and plenty of snacks.
The arithmetic of doom on America’s debt and budget shortfalls has been a favorite parlor game for fiscal conservatives since 1971, when Richard Nixon removed the last constraint on federal borrowing by ending the dollar’s convertibility to gold.
Private equity has become easier than ever for individual investors to buy. Founders, executives, physicians, and business owners now regularly see private funds offered through banks, wealth platforms, feeders, evergreen vehicles, or registered interval funds. However, just because these funds are more readily available, and at lower minimums, does not mean they should immediately be invested in.
A continued escalation in the Middle East, where the Iranian-backed Houthis joined the conflict in an attempt to disrupt Saudi Arabian crude shipments that pass through the Red Sea via the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, drove oil prices higher, while new tariff announcements and Alphabet's earnings release created headwinds for equities.
Clients do not need us to predict whether the next 10% move is up or down. They need help staying invested in a way that matches their goals, their time horizon, and their actual tolerance for risk. Staying invested is easier when clients understand what each part of the portfolio is designed to do.
At the party, hosted on a hot day last July at HPS business development head John Christmas’ New Jersey beach house, bandana-clad colleagues across his teams mingled poolside with the wind at their backs. With the addition of HPS, one of the biggest names in private credit, it seemed BlackRock was set to break through in the market in a way that had eluded the asset manager for years.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® unexpectedly inched lower in July, falling 1.4 points to 90.8. The index was below the forecast of 92.4.
If you own treasuries, you need to make two separate decisions rather than one blended bet. The liquidity sleeve holds the bill exposure and does the work people mistakenly ask the long end to do. The duration sleeve stays deliberately small, sized as recession insurance rather than as a conviction call on falling inflation.
The narrative presented in this article is uniquely suited only to the retirement scenario. (And it neglects such complications as tax-deferred accounts, etc.) Other investing narratives will be different — for example, those of pension funds or endowment funds.
Pensions are as healthy as they’ve been for a long while. Maintaining tried and true investment strategies has led the way to current funding levels and may support pension stability for years to come.
In this midyear global outlook summary, the authors revisit Vanguard’s economic and market outlooks and assess how our views have evolved since the start of the year.
Today we’ll consider the interaction between long-term interest rates, the Fed’s limited ability to influence them, inflation and the housing market. And because home prices are the biggest concern for many households, we’ll start with a look at the latest changes there. And then look at the Federal Reserve’s likely reaction.
Google searches for "can I afford a home" are at their highest level in nearly two decades. While a Google search on its own isn't proof of anything, millions of queries might be a proxy for the national vibe.
Russ Koesterich explains gold’s recent fall and lays out his argument for why investors should continue to hold a modest position in their portfolios.
From severe wildfires in northern Ontario to record heat across Europe, extreme weather is back in the headlines. Such events are becoming more frequent and intense, and the risks associated with them are testing the limits of insurability. With our research partners at Columbia Climate School, we examine how strains on the insurance system can transmit climate-related risks through the capital markets.
Making his first appearance on Capitol Hill since becoming Fed Chair in May, Kevin Warsh delivered the chair's semi-annual testimony on monetary policy and the state of the economy to the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services on July 14 and the Senate Banking Committee on July 15.
In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.
The prime culprit was renewed questioning of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout given the increasing amount of capital investment needed to bring it to life and the corresponding costs for those who use the technology weighed against its potential productivity benefits.
When you measure home affordability today against the metric that actually governs the check you write each month, the picture flips. By that measure, buying a home may be easier now than it was for the Boomers and Gen Xers who get blamed for everything.
The second-quarter earnings season kicked off last week with a resounding statement from Wall Street, led by stellar results across the nation's six largest banking institutions.
AI is changing the investment landscape, but fundamentals still matter, and we remain focused on quality companies with growing free cash flow.
Today, the mission of the CFP Board of Standards, a 501(c )(6) nonprofit organization, is to credential competent and ethical financial planners, uphold CFP® certification as the recognized standard, and advance the financial planning profession. The mission is no longer to benefit the public. Selling out the public dooms financial planning as a profession. That’s horrible for the vast majority of certificants that want to be held to a higher standard.
A holistic approach to retirement planning involves careful thinking and conversation around investment strategy, tax efficiency, income needs, and estate planning. The goal, of course, is to minimize the drag of taxation on lifetime earnings and wealth accumulation while maintaining both compliance and attention to the client’s priorities and values.
Andy Burnham pledged a “new economic model” for the UK as he sought to reassure Britons that his ascension as their seventh prime minister in little over a decade would bring an end to the country’s political instability.
I’ve been writing about inflation more in recent months and quarters because inflation has become the major driver of the US macroeconomic landscape. This week, we take a deep dive into inflation and interest rates, and at the end, I talk about why I am buying gold for my grandkids.
For physicians, major financial decisions may rarely affect just one area of their financial life. The real potential risk is failing to understand how those decisions impact everything else.
For many investors and families, tax planning may become a year-end exercise squeezed into November and December. But by the time the calendar turns to the fourth quarter, many of the most effective opportunities are already limited.
The good news is real. The easy trade is not. Growth has held up, artificial intelligence investment is showing up in earnings and capital spending, and fixed income is offering yields that create serious cushion for portfolios.
The bonds sold by hyperscalers to fuel their artificial intelligence ambitions have become a drag on investor portfolios from London to Tokyo.
Private debt is increasingly valued for its potential to help insurers operationally and strategically: support liability matching, improve portfolio design, diversify underlying exposures and, when underwritten well, add resilient excess return.
Builder confidence edged lower in July as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from June to 34 this month, marking the 27th consecutive negative reading.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index sank 5.4% in June to 72.5, the lowest level since January.
The Q2 earnings season is off to a rollercoaster start. The big banks collectively reported strong numbers, boosted by active capital markets and another impressive set of sales & trading revenue. And it was the usual chorus of bank CEO macro commentary:
Although economic conditions did not change much between the first and second quarters, investors were far more bullish in the second quarter.
After a difficult start to the year, investor sentiment reached a low point near the end of March as concerns around inflation, geopolitics, and rising interest rates weighed on risk assets.
What were the key takeaways from last month’s numbers? Our corporate bond specialists look back at the market’s performance and provide incisive commentary to help you make sense of what drove the market—and what may be on the horizon for fixed income investors.
incoln National Corp. is in advanced talks with Talcott Financial Group for a reinsurance deal that would shift billions of dollars of life insurance reserves off its balance sheet, according to people familiar with the deliberations.
LPL Research examines how sticky inflation, Fed leadership changes, and AI-driven borrowing are shaping the fixed income outlook for 2026.
The Fed's recent shift into a more hawkish mode creates concern about banking profits later this year, but second-quarter results are seen strong thanks to IPOs, mergers.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.1 points to 97.4, reaching its highest level since February. However, the index remains below its historical average for a fourth straight month.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Over the next 20 years, the industry’s great wealth transfer is expected to put more than $84 trillion in the hands of new family members and other beneficiaries as Baby Boomers increasingly enter their 80s. This large migration of assets could also signal a great client exodus for advisors, if they aren’t able to connect with the new stewards of this wealth.
Inflation cooled for the first time in five months, coming in at 3.5% year-over-year in June. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was lower than the 3.8% forecast.
Over the past few weeks, data has continued to point to a U.S. labor market that is healing after showing signs of weakness starting in late 2024 and persisting for nearly the entirety of 2025—a condition that spurred the Fed to cut rates even as inflation remained stuck above its 2 percent target.
If there's one thing you should take away from it, it's this: these six measures rarely move together. When they have, twice in 250 years, the country entered a period of real upheaval. Right now, they're moving together again.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% in June as the median home price surged to a record high of $440,600.
It used to be a considered something of a tawdry question, although it could be flattering as well: “What’s your number?” Nowadays, your inquisitor is probably asking about retirement — as in, how much you think you need to retire. And, as it often was before, it’s the wrong question.
Congress is in recess from June 30 through July 13 for the annual July 4 break, so it's relatively quiet in the nation's capital. But there is still plenty worth paying attention to.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the June 2026 close.
Widowhood does not happen on paper. It happens in the middle of grief, changing income, tax questions, family expectations, housing decisions, administrative demands, and a profound shift in identity. The math may still work, but the human operating system has changed. And that is why advisors need to stress test — not only for portfolio survival, but for survivor usability.
After years of working with advisors and studying client behavior, the reasons clients leave come down to three core patterns. They are predictable. They are preventable. And they almost always trace back to a conversation that never happened in the first meeting.
The word fiduciary no longer answers the only question that matters: Whether the advice you are given is shaped by what the advisor earns from giving it. Many advisors will tell you, accurately, that they are fiduciaries, and many will say they have no conflicts without disclosing the ones they hold.
Close to 40 years ago, I moved from Canada to the U.S. after acquiring a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors. I’ve built my entire life and career here, and in all that time, I’ve never stopped marveling at my adopted country.
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global rose 0.5 points to 51.2, indicating a modest rise in service sector activity. The latest reading was just below the forecast of 51.3 and marked the strongest expansion in four months.
Six months is enough time for a lot to change. Your income, your expenses, your goals, and even the broader economy may look different than they did at the start of the year. And a plan that made sense in January might not fit the reality you're living in now.
Federal estate taxes may not affect most households, but state death taxes can still be significant. Learn key planning considerations and strategies to help preserve wealth.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In June, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%.
At first glance, allocating to emerging markets appears to add diversification to a portfolio. Look more closely, and the reality is more nuanced. In the late 1990s, the MSCI EM index was dominated by materials and telecoms, driven by the growth of mobile telephony and the internet bubble.
The business of overseeing individually tailored municipal-bond portfolios has continued to grow rapidly, turning those money managers into the biggest holders of state and local government debt, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
A private bond market dating back more than a century is opening a new front in the trillion-dollar AI funding boom, allowing tech borrowers to sell debt directly to deep-pocketed insurance firms.
Insurance investors face a broader opportunity set than ever across public and private credit—from corporate lending to asset-based finance. But those investments come in many forms. In our view, a all-encompassing approach can better assess relative value, pivot to new avenues and align investments with portfolio, liability and regulatory considerations.
The OBBBA created something the industry rarely gets: a defined planning window without a hard deadline attached. Exemptions are historically high, the law has no sunset, and there's a real body of existing work that needs revisiting. The advisors who treat this as an opportunity, rather than waiting for a client to ask, will drive much stronger outcomes compared to those who don’t.
Ten years ago this week, the world watched the United Kingdom vote to walk away from the European Union. While the political class was clutching its pearls and every talking head on television was promising Armageddon by Christmas, I told you something different.
A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.
As expectations have shifted toward slower growth, higher inflation, and higher rates, investors have rotated back to sectors like large-cap technology and semiconductors, capable of delivering durable earnings in a tougher macro environment.
I’m hopeful new chair Kevin Warsh will help change the Fed’s inflation-tolerating institutional culture. Early signs look positive. Today we’ll talk about how insidious inflation is and why those who think a little inflation is fine should have their heads examined. It is not fine… for anyone.
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
Alphabet Inc.’s addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average marks another step in the benchmark’s effort to catch up with a market increasingly defined by Big Tech.
On May 5, 2026, researchers from Cleveland Clinic, RIKEN, and IBM successfully simulated a 12,635-atom protein complex using quantum-centric supercomputing, a problem relevant to drug discovery that classical computing could not match at comparable speed and accuracy.
The advisory profession is entering a new era. AI will not replace advisors — but advisors who use AI will replace those who don’t. And the actuarial approach is uniquely well suited to this transition.
Gold is often misunderstood. It is not a growth asset, and it produces no cash flow. Its role is to maintain purchasing power — not outperform. It reflects the currency’s declining value.
Start with the disconnect itself. If you only looked at the Michigan headline, you’d assume the country was in a depression. However, when you look at what people are actually doing, the picture changes completely.
Roth conversions provide tax-free retirement income to hedge against future tax hikes, but they trigger an immediate tax bill. Fortunately, strategic planning can help minimize this upfront cost.
We all know that Congress is never going to allow Social Security not to be paid. This begs a number of questions. Will the shortfall be addressed by tax increases, benefit reductions, increasing the retirement age, changing the inflation measures, means testing or some combination of these and other solutions?
For long-time shareholders, the IPO is more than just a liquidity event. It represents the end of years of uncertainty and provides a rare opportunity to monetize investments that have generated extraordinary paper returns while remaining largely illiquid.
Reserve managers' decisions on EM debt go beyond investment potential—they must also weigh considerations such as governance, resources and liquidity.
In an effort to streamline retirement income planning, MassMutual Strategic Distributors has launched a behavioral framework.
In August 2025, the US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening the investments available in defined contribution plans (DC plans). On March 30, 2026, the US Department of Labor issued proposed guidance regarding a plan fiduciary’s selection of investments, including private market and other alternative investments, in 401(k) plans.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale explains why dividend growth investing may be one of the most predictable and dependable strategies for long-term investors, especially those seeking retirement income. While many investors view stocks as risky due to daily price volatility, Chuck argues that focusing solely on stock prices can be misleading. Instead, he emphasizes that the most reliable component of stock ownership is often the growing stream of dividends paid by high-quality companies.
Compliance risks happen when AI-enabled workflows expand faster than their governance model. It becomes a blind spot when AI solutions are built faster than the organization’s ability to map them against the right regulatory, operational, and data-governance controls.
SpaceX gained for a fourth straight day, cementing the company’s place among the world’s most valuable stocks after it surpassed Amazon.com Inc.
For insurers, fixed income remains the foundation of portfolio strategy. But while public markets have long provided unrivaled sourcing capacity and liquidity, the definition of “core” is widening.
One of the most debated topics in private credit is the size of the investment opportunity – or, in industry parlance, the total addressable market (TAM). But the way TAM is typically framed can be misleading.
Markets returned to positive territory for the week, with the turning point occurring Thursday after the announcement of a potential deal with Iran that would extend the ceasefire while reopening the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since February 27.
A massive advisor retirement wave is reshaping wealth management. Discover how $2.5 trillion in assets may fuel industry transformation.
Advisors, who have recently broken away to start their own shops, must learn to strike the right balance when getting personal with clients — and part of that requires data.
New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will preside over his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16-17, stepping in at a complex moment with inflation at a three-year high as oil prices remain elevated, labor market risks easing with job growth averaging ~140,000 year to date versus only 10,000 last year, and hawkish voices on the Fed gaining traction.
Insurance & Annuities
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.13% in June and was up 3.81% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.24% month-over-month and up 0.14% year-over-year.
Initial Jobless Claims Up 9K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending July 25th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 197,000. This represents an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 201,000.
An Adulting Checklist for College-Bound Students
As families prepare for college move-in season, the packing list usually starts with the obvious essentials: bedding, a laptop, chargers, school supplies and plenty of snacks.
America Is Undergoing a Massive Debt-for-Equity Swap
The arithmetic of doom on America’s debt and budget shortfalls has been a favorite parlor game for fiscal conservatives since 1971, when Richard Nixon removed the last constraint on federal borrowing by ending the dollar’s convertibility to gold.
Private Equity for Individual Investors: What the Minimums Really Mean
Private equity has become easier than ever for individual investors to buy. Founders, executives, physicians, and business owners now regularly see private funds offered through banks, wealth platforms, feeders, evergreen vehicles, or registered interval funds. However, just because these funds are more readily available, and at lower minimums, does not mean they should immediately be invested in.
Tariffs Complicate the Fed’s Inflation Fight
A continued escalation in the Middle East, where the Iranian-backed Houthis joined the conflict in an attempt to disrupt Saudi Arabian crude shipments that pass through the Red Sea via the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, drove oil prices higher, while new tariff announcements and Alphabet's earnings release created headwinds for equities.
On AI Bubbles & Keeping Clients Invested Without Ignoring Risk
Clients do not need us to predict whether the next 10% move is up or down. They need help staying invested in a way that matches their goals, their time horizon, and their actual tolerance for risk. Staying invested is easier when clients understand what each part of the portfolio is designed to do.
BlackRock Sets Out for Private Credit Glory After Year of Upheaval
At the party, hosted on a hot day last July at HPS business development head John Christmas’ New Jersey beach house, bandana-clad colleagues across his teams mingled poolside with the wind at their backs. With the addition of HPS, one of the biggest names in private credit, it seemed BlackRock was set to break through in the market in a way that had eluded the asset manager for years.
Consumer Confidence Moderated Slightly in July
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® unexpectedly inched lower in July, falling 1.4 points to 90.8. The index was below the forecast of 92.4.
Are US Treasuries Still A Safe Asset?
If you own treasuries, you need to make two separate decisions rather than one blended bet. The liquidity sleeve holds the bill exposure and does the work people mistakenly ask the long end to do. The duration sleeve stays deliberately small, sized as recession insurance rather than as a conviction call on falling inflation.
How to Properly Measure Risk
The narrative presented in this article is uniquely suited only to the retirement scenario. (And it neglects such complications as tax-deferred accounts, etc.) Other investing narratives will be different — for example, those of pension funds or endowment funds.
Liability-Driven Investing Midyear Outlook 2026: Well-Funded Corporate Plans
Pensions are as healthy as they’ve been for a long while. Maintaining tried and true investment strategies has led the way to current funding levels and may support pension stability for years to come.
AI, Oil, and a Changing Global Economy
In this midyear global outlook summary, the authors revisit Vanguard’s economic and market outlooks and assess how our views have evolved since the start of the year.
Long Term Rate Headache
Today we’ll consider the interaction between long-term interest rates, the Fed’s limited ability to influence them, inflation and the housing market. And because home prices are the biggest concern for many households, we’ll start with a look at the latest changes there. And then look at the Federal Reserve’s likely reaction.
Is Housing Still the American Dream?
Google searches for "can I afford a home" are at their highest level in nearly two decades. While a Google search on its own isn't proof of anything, millions of queries might be a proxy for the national vibe.
What is Going on With Gold?
Russ Koesterich explains gold’s recent fall and lays out his argument for why investors should continue to hold a modest position in their portfolios.
At the Edge of Insurability: When Wildfire Risk Becomes Investment Risk
From severe wildfires in northern Ontario to record heat across Europe, extreme weather is back in the headlines. Such events are becoming more frequent and intense, and the risks associated with them are testing the limits of insurability. With our research partners at Columbia Climate School, we examine how strains on the insurance system can transmit climate-related risks through the capital markets.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Making his first appearance on Capitol Hill since becoming Fed Chair in May, Kevin Warsh delivered the chair's semi-annual testimony on monetary policy and the state of the economy to the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services on July 14 and the Senate Banking Committee on July 15.
Old-Fashioned Bond Math for a New-Fashioned Fed
In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.
Market Broadening Gains Momentum as AI Uncertainty Grows
The prime culprit was renewed questioning of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout given the increasing amount of capital investment needed to bring it to life and the corresponding costs for those who use the technology weighed against its potential productivity benefits.
Home Affordability: Better Than Headlines Suggest
When you measure home affordability today against the metric that actually governs the check you write each month, the picture flips. By that measure, buying a home may be easier now than it was for the Boomers and Gen Xers who get blamed for everything.
A Stellar Start: Big Banks Defy Credit Fears to Kick Off Q2 Earnings
The second-quarter earnings season kicked off last week with a resounding statement from Wall Street, led by stellar results across the nation's six largest banking institutions.
Q3 Equity Outlook: AI: A Paradigm Shift
AI is changing the investment landscape, but fundamentals still matter, and we remain focused on quality companies with growing free cash flow.
How the CFP Board Sold Out the Public & the Profession
Today, the mission of the CFP Board of Standards, a 501(c )(6) nonprofit organization, is to credential competent and ethical financial planners, uphold CFP® certification as the recognized standard, and advance the financial planning profession. The mission is no longer to benefit the public. Selling out the public dooms financial planning as a profession. That’s horrible for the vast majority of certificants that want to be held to a higher standard.
Integrated Tax Retirement Planning: It’s Not What You Make; It’s What You Keep
A holistic approach to retirement planning involves careful thinking and conversation around investment strategy, tax efficiency, income needs, and estate planning. The goal, of course, is to minimize the drag of taxation on lifetime earnings and wealth accumulation while maintaining both compliance and attention to the client’s priorities and values.
Burnham Promises ‘New Economic Model’ to Bring Stability to UK
Andy Burnham pledged a “new economic model” for the UK as he sought to reassure Britons that his ascension as their seventh prime minister in little over a decade would bring an end to the country’s political instability.
Inflation Conundrums
I’ve been writing about inflation more in recent months and quarters because inflation has become the major driver of the US macroeconomic landscape. This week, we take a deep dive into inflation and interest rates, and at the end, I talk about why I am buying gold for my grandkids.
The Most Expensive Financial Decisions Physicians Make (And They Aren’t Investment Decisions)
For physicians, major financial decisions may rarely affect just one area of their financial life. The real potential risk is failing to understand how those decisions impact everything else.
Why July is the Perfect Time for Proactive Tax Planning
For many investors and families, tax planning may become a year-end exercise squeezed into November and December. But by the time the calendar turns to the fourth quarter, many of the most effective opportunities are already limited.
Getting Serious in Summer Markets
The good news is real. The easy trade is not. Growth has held up, artificial intelligence investment is showing up in earnings and capital spending, and fixed income is offering yields that create serious cushion for portfolios.
Hyperscalers Are Dragging Down Bond Gauges Across Global Markets
The bonds sold by hyperscalers to fuel their artificial intelligence ambitions have become a drag on investor portfolios from London to Tokyo.
The Rise and Rise of Private Debt for Insurance Investors
Private debt is increasingly valued for its potential to help insurers operationally and strategically: support liability matching, improve portfolio design, diversify underlying exposures and, when underwritten well, add resilient excess return.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Affordability Challenges Pull Down Builder Sentiment
Builder confidence edged lower in July as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from June to 34 this month, marking the 27th consecutive negative reading.
Pending Home Sales Sink 5% in June
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index sank 5.4% in June to 72.5, the lowest level since January.
SaaSpocalypse Part II? IBM’s Preliminary Earnings Report Rattles Software
The Q2 earnings season is off to a rollercoaster start. The big banks collectively reported strong numbers, boosted by active capital markets and another impressive set of sales & trading revenue. And it was the usual chorus of bank CEO macro commentary:
Q3 Strategic Income Outlook: Perception Is Reality
Although economic conditions did not change much between the first and second quarters, investors were far more bullish in the second quarter.
From First-Quarter Fear to Renewed Optimism
After a difficult start to the year, investor sentiment reached a low point near the end of March as concerns around inflation, geopolitics, and rising interest rates weighed on risk assets.
Corporate Bond Market Insight - Resilient Growth Meets Rising Inflation
What were the key takeaways from last month’s numbers? Our corporate bond specialists look back at the market’s performance and provide incisive commentary to help you make sense of what drove the market—and what may be on the horizon for fixed income investors.
Lincoln in Talks With Talcott for Multibillion-Dollar Risk Deal
incoln National Corp. is in advanced talks with Talcott Financial Group for a reinsurance deal that would shift billions of dollars of life insurance reserves off its balance sheet, according to people familiar with the deliberations.
Keep Calm and Clip Coupons
LPL Research examines how sticky inflation, Fed leadership changes, and AI-driven borrowing are shaping the fixed income outlook for 2026.
Q2 Bank Earnings Preview: Hawkish Fed Pivot Eyed
The Fed's recent shift into a more hawkish mode creates concern about banking profits later this year, but second-quarter results are seen strong thanks to IPOs, mergers.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Picks Up in June
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.1 points to 97.4, reaching its highest level since February. However, the index remains below its historical average for a fourth straight month.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: June 2026
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Making Sure the ‘Great Wealth Transfer’ Doesn’t Turn Into the ‘Great Client Exodus’
Over the next 20 years, the industry’s great wealth transfer is expected to put more than $84 trillion in the hands of new family members and other beneficiaries as Baby Boomers increasingly enter their 80s. This large migration of assets could also signal a great client exodus for advisors, if they aren’t able to connect with the new stewards of this wealth.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation at 3.5% in June
Inflation cooled for the first time in five months, coming in at 3.5% year-over-year in June. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was lower than the 3.8% forecast.
Labor Market Strength Shifts Focus Back to Inflation
Over the past few weeks, data has continued to point to a U.S. labor market that is healing after showing signs of weakness starting in late 2024 and persisting for nearly the entirety of 2025—a condition that spurred the Fed to cut rates even as inflation remained stuck above its 2 percent target.
America Turns 250. Yet The Data Isn't Celebrating
If there's one thing you should take away from it, it's this: these six measures rarely move together. When they have, twice in 250 years, the country entered a period of real upheaval. Right now, they're moving together again.
Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: June 2026
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Existing Home Sales Drop in June as Median Prices Hit All-Time High
Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% in June as the median home price surged to a record high of $440,600.
Stop Chasing a ‘Magic Number’ for Retirement
It used to be a considered something of a tawdry question, although it could be flattering as well: “What’s your number?” Nowadays, your inquisitor is probably asking about retirement — as in, how much you think you need to retire. And, as it often was before, it’s the wrong question.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Congress is in recess from June 30 through July 13 for the annual July 4 break, so it's relatively quiet in the nation's capital. But there is still plenty worth paying attention to.
The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq: Real Returns Since 2000 Peak (June 2026)
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the June 2026 close.
The Survivor Stress Test: When the Couple’s Retirement Plan Becomes a Widow’s Plan
Widowhood does not happen on paper. It happens in the middle of grief, changing income, tax questions, family expectations, housing decisions, administrative demands, and a profound shift in identity. The math may still work, but the human operating system has changed. And that is why advisors need to stress test — not only for portfolio survival, but for survivor usability.
Inoculate Before They Leave: How a Proactive Strategy Stops Client Attrition
After years of working with advisors and studying client behavior, the reasons clients leave come down to three core patterns. They are predictable. They are preventable. And they almost always trace back to a conversation that never happened in the first meeting.
Why Asking The Fiduciary Question Is No Longer Enough
The word fiduciary no longer answers the only question that matters: Whether the advice you are given is shaped by what the advisor earns from giving it. Many advisors will tell you, accurately, that they are fiduciaries, and many will say they have no conflicts without disclosing the ones they hold.
250 Years In, and the Case for America Has Never Been Stronger
Close to 40 years ago, I moved from Canada to the U.S. after acquiring a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors. I’ve built my entire life and career here, and in all that time, I’ve never stopped marveling at my adopted country.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Reaches 4-Month High
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global rose 0.5 points to 51.2, indicating a modest rise in service sector activity. The latest reading was just below the forecast of 51.3 and marked the strongest expansion in four months.
Mid-Year Money Check-In: Is Your Plan Still Working?
Six months is enough time for a lot to change. Your income, your expenses, your goals, and even the broader economy may look different than they did at the start of the year. And a plan that made sense in January might not fit the reality you're living in now.
Planning Considerations for State Death Taxes
Federal estate taxes may not affect most households, but state death taxes can still be significant. Learn key planning considerations and strategies to help preserve wealth.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In June, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%.
Beneath the Surface: Uncovering True Diversification in Emerging Markets
At first glance, allocating to emerging markets appears to add diversification to a portfolio. Look more closely, and the reality is more nuanced. In the late 1990s, the MSCI EM index was dominated by materials and telecoms, driven by the growth of mobile telephony and the internet bubble.
JPMorgan Says Private Muni-Bond Accounts Swell to $1.6 Trillion
The business of overseeing individually tailored municipal-bond portfolios has continued to grow rapidly, turning those money managers into the biggest holders of state and local government debt, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
AI’s Trillion-Dollar Debt Binge Fuels Century-Old Private Market
A private bond market dating back more than a century is opening a new front in the trillion-dollar AI funding boom, allowing tech borrowers to sell debt directly to deep-pocketed insurance firms.
As the Playing Field Expands, Insurance Investors Must Stay Nimble
Insurance investors face a broader opportunity set than ever across public and private credit—from corporate lending to asset-based finance. But those investments come in many forms. In our view, a all-encompassing approach can better assess relative value, pivot to new avenues and align investments with portfolio, liability and regulatory considerations.
Estate Plans Designed Before OBBBA May Now Be Costing Your Clients Money
The OBBBA created something the industry rarely gets: a defined planning window without a hard deadline attached. Exemptions are historically high, the law has no sunset, and there's a real body of existing work that needs revisiting. The advisors who treat this as an opportunity, rather than waiting for a client to ask, will drive much stronger outcomes compared to those who don’t.
Four Lessons Brexit Taught Me About Gold and Protecting Your Wealth
Ten years ago this week, the world watched the United Kingdom vote to walk away from the European Union. While the political class was clutching its pearls and every talking head on television was promising Armageddon by Christmas, I told you something different.
The Credit Market Lens: What BDC Redemptions and NAV Pressures Mean for Investors
A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.
Tech Rally Grounded in Fundamentals
As expectations have shifted toward slower growth, higher inflation, and higher rates, investors have rotated back to sectors like large-cap technology and semiconductors, capable of delivering durable earnings in a tougher macro environment.
Inflation Sinks Deeper
I’m hopeful new chair Kevin Warsh will help change the Fed’s inflation-tolerating institutional culture. Early signs look positive. Today we’ll talk about how insidious inflation is and why those who think a little inflation is fine should have their heads examined. It is not fine… for anyone.
Market Broadening, AI, and the Case for Diversification
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
Alphabet’s Dow Debut Shows Index Headache in Tech-Driven Economy
Alphabet Inc.’s addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average marks another step in the benchmark’s effort to catch up with a market increasingly defined by Big Tech.
Why the Tech Giants Are Always in the Room
On May 5, 2026, researchers from Cleveland Clinic, RIKEN, and IBM successfully simulated a 12,635-atom protein complex using quantum-centric supercomputing, a problem relevant to drug discovery that classical computing could not match at comparable speed and accuracy.
Why It’s Time for Advisors to Add the Actuarial Approach — & Copilot — to Their Retirement Toolkit
The advisory profession is entering a new era. AI will not replace advisors — but advisors who use AI will replace those who don’t. And the actuarial approach is uniquely well suited to this transition.
The Price of Gold is Less About Gold & More About the Erosion of the Dollar
Gold is often misunderstood. It is not a growth asset, and it produces no cash flow. Its role is to maintain purchasing power — not outperform. It reflects the currency’s declining value.
The Consumer Sentiment Disconnect From Economic Reality
Start with the disconnect itself. If you only looked at the Michigan headline, you’d assume the country was in a depression. However, when you look at what people are actually doing, the picture changes completely.
Three Ways to Offset Income From a Roth Conversion
Roth conversions provide tax-free retirement income to hedge against future tax hikes, but they trigger an immediate tax bill. Fortunately, strategic planning can help minimize this upfront cost.
Social Insecurity, Surprise Edition
We all know that Congress is never going to allow Social Security not to be paid. This begs a number of questions. Will the shortfall be addressed by tax increases, benefit reductions, increasing the retirement age, changing the inflation measures, means testing or some combination of these and other solutions?
Morgan Stanley, Temasek Set for Big Pay Day From NSE’s India IPO
For long-time shareholders, the IPO is more than just a liquidity event. It represents the end of years of uncertainty and provides a rare opportunity to monetize investments that have generated extraordinary paper returns while remaining largely illiquid.
EM Debt—What Reserve Managers Should Keep in Mind
Reserve managers' decisions on EM debt go beyond investment potential—they must also weigh considerations such as governance, resources and liquidity.
MassMutual on Strategies for Maximizing Retirement Income
In an effort to streamline retirement income planning, MassMutual Strategic Distributors has launched a behavioral framework.
Private Markets in Retirement Plans: Unlocking Opportunities
In August 2025, the US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening the investments available in defined contribution plans (DC plans). On March 30, 2026, the US Department of Labor issued proposed guidance regarding a plan fiduciary’s selection of investments, including private market and other alternative investments, in 401(k) plans.
The Closest Thing to Guaranteed investing Success
In this video, Chuck Carnevale explains why dividend growth investing may be one of the most predictable and dependable strategies for long-term investors, especially those seeking retirement income. While many investors view stocks as risky due to daily price volatility, Chuck argues that focusing solely on stock prices can be misleading. Instead, he emphasizes that the most reliable component of stock ownership is often the growing stream of dividends paid by high-quality companies.
Compliance Without an AI Blind Spot
Compliance risks happen when AI-enabled workflows expand faster than their governance model. It becomes a blind spot when AI solutions are built faster than the organization’s ability to map them against the right regulatory, operational, and data-governance controls.
SpaceX Extends Gains Into Fourth Day as Post-IPO Rally Hits 58%
SpaceX gained for a fourth straight day, cementing the company’s place among the world’s most valuable stocks after it surpassed Amazon.com Inc.
How Fixed-Income Investing Is Evolving for European Insurers
For insurers, fixed income remains the foundation of portfolio strategy. But while public markets have long provided unrivaled sourcing capacity and liquidity, the definition of “core” is widening.
How Large Is Private Credit’s Total Addressable Market, Really?
One of the most debated topics in private credit is the size of the investment opportunity – or, in industry parlance, the total addressable market (TAM). But the way TAM is typically framed can be misleading.
Markets Rally as Investors Weigh Inflation, the Fed and SpaceX IPO
Markets returned to positive territory for the week, with the turning point occurring Thursday after the announcement of a potential deal with Iran that would extend the ceasefire while reopening the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since February 27.
Navigating the Impending Advisor Retirement Wave
A massive advisor retirement wave is reshaping wealth management. Discover how $2.5 trillion in assets may fuel industry transformation.
How to Inject Your Personal Story Into Client Service, Marketing
Advisors, who have recently broken away to start their own shops, must learn to strike the right balance when getting personal with clients — and part of that requires data.
Warsh’s First FOMC Meeting Will Put Policy and Fed Independence in Focus
New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will preside over his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16-17, stepping in at a complex moment with inflation at a three-year high as oil prices remain elevated, labor market risks easing with job growth averaging ~140,000 year to date versus only 10,000 last year, and hawkish voices on the Fed gaining traction.