Annie Duke’s latest and best of her books, Quit, is on making decisions under uncertainty.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
The US economy grew faster than forecast into the end of 2022, but there were signs of slowing underlying demand as the steepest interest-rate hikes in decades threaten growth this year.
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 186K new claims, down 6k from the previous week's revised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 205K.
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
COVID-19 has been a catalyst for change in many aspects of our lives, not least the migration to flexible working, which would have taken many more years without the pandemic’s brutal intervention.
Two major issues clients should consider in creating their own long-term care plan are where they will live and how they will pay for the care they are likely to need.
Do you fear looking back at your career one day and asking yourself “what if” you had made a move to independence?
First, the good news: we estimate that real GDP grew at a solid 2.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter.
Paying down student debt or saving for retirement can seem like mutually exclusive goals. A little-known workplace benefit could soon allow more workers to do both.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
It’s big news that Envestnet is moving into the RIA custodial space and will soon be competing head-to-head with its biggest integration partners: an expanded Schwab platform, Fidelity and Pershing. I suspect that this is just the first of many so-called software “platforms” that will jump into the custody competition.
Market watchers on Wall Street attribute this week’s stock selloff to the insidious threat of recession.
The greatest financial risk for depleting retirement resources is an unexpected and lengthy stay in a long-term healthcare facility.
We call them narratives, memes, or mind viruses.
Last year an infamous cryptocurrency ad featured the slogan “fortune favors the brave.” And while historically fortune does favor the brave, there is a difference between courage and blind faith.
For the past few years, regardless of price, there's been a buyer for every RIA seller. But that won’t continue.
Southwest Airlines cancelled 16,000 holiday flights. It will cost the airline dearly in reputational rage and lawsuits. Will massive Reg BI compliance failures cost BDs?
Let me share a story of an RIA who will be forced to mount a legal defense because of a lawsuit that is likely to be filed by two of his retired clients.
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
The omnibus spending bill puts our retirement system on an even less sustainable basis.
One of the most lucrative money-making machines in the world of finance is all clogged up, threatening a year of pain for Wall Street banks and private-equity barons as a decade-long deal boom goes bust.
During the holiday season, everyone is looking for a good deal. While searching by the highest percentage discounts seems like it may lead to a steal, the results tend to be underwhelming. Investors often make the same mistake during bear markets.
Big global banks are eying some of the world’s most fragile countries for a new experiment in financial engineering: debt relief in exchange for environmental protections.
US inflation continued to slow in December, adding to evidence price pressures have peaked and putting the Federal Reserve on track to again slow the pace of interest-rate hikes.
The six biggest Wall Street banks are expected to slash their corporate bond issuance in 2023 for a second year in a row, offering a bright spot for investors nursing record losses from the debt last year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 6.45%, down from 7.11% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 5.71%, down from 5.96% the previous month.
The market volatility and interest-rate hikes that gave US banks their biggest windfall last year may prove to be their biggest headache in 2023.
My firm’s leader had a major unexpected undiagnosed medical issue. He walked out of the office one day and I haven’t seen him for four weeks.
Can you believe these grifters hawking indexed universal life (IUL) insurance on TikTok? Here’s the actions I’m taking to put an end to this predatory nonsense.
Probability-based retirement income strategies are highly sensitive to the capital market assumptions used in Monte Carlo analysis. Seemingly small changes in those assumptions can mean the difference between projecting a comfortable lifestyle and financial ruin.
Tight monetary policy and rising government debt will drive a regime of high interest rates, depressing stock prices and destroying the wealth of clients, most severely those at or near retirement.
Build your ladder with multiple target-maturity ETFs representing different segments of the bond market, with different target years.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Federal Reserve officials Friday stressed further interest-rate hikes are needed to tame inflation even though there are emerging signs that price pressures are cooling.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December saw a 223K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%. The Investing.com consensus was for 200K jobs gained.
Municipal Bond Strategist Jim Grabovac shares his views on outflows, trends and opportunities in the municipal sector.
Here are my five golden rules of marketing for advisors from Warren Buffett.
In the first few days of 2023, at least 500 US workers will likely have already paid their Social Security taxes for the year.
In some ways, the 2023 economic outlook for the US is locked in. The Federal Reserve’s goal is to push the rate of inflation back down to 2% over the next few years.
Relative to the accumulation phase, strategies that mitigate the unique risks faced by retirees in decumulation are less understood and researched. By identifying and illustrating those risks, planners can better prepare clients for retirement.
Billionaire philanthropist Chuck Feeney is credited with saying, “I want the last check I write to bounce.” While that is ideal, it’s unrealistic. Or is it?
Contrary to what financial theory predicts, new research from Europe shows that the elderly accumulate assets later in life than expected, likely because they want to leave bequests, are receiving pensions, or are reluctant to part with assets such as their homes.
Wealthy retirees seem to have scored big in Congress’ sweeping year-end spending package.
The market dislocations and skyrocketing inflation of the last year put longstanding retirement maxims to the test and that test isn’t over yet.
As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read investment and planning articles over the past 12 months. Tomorrow, we will highlight the 10 most-read practice management articles.
Private credit can be an attractive asset that has provided high yield and protection against the risks of rising inflation. In addition, the asset class has a strong credit history – specifically senior, secured, sponsored debt.
The Federal Reserve’s policy makers are going to become incrementally more dovish in 2023, as a new roster of senior officials brings a greater focus on maximum employment to its policy-setting committee.
The remains of Sam Bankman-Fried’s former empire FTX Group are drawing interest from some of the largest names in distressed investing, in a daredevil bet that heavily discounted creditor claims on the bankrupt cryptocurrency conglomerate will ultimately pay off.
Here are nine tips that will help your family members stay healthy and financially secure as they age.
The economics teams looks back at the most significant stories we covered during 2022.
Considering that a new year almost always brings surprises of one form or another, we've highlighted our top five that may define the global markets in 2023.
The Fed has massively inverted the yield curve. We explain why investors might be frontrunning themselves and why the long-term rate won’t budge.
Here’s a breakdown of the pros and cons of trading in your traditional bank for a virtual banking experience.
I will use an example and an actuarial model to compare the efficiency of three strategies for strengthening a retired or near-retired client’s balance sheet under both a lower and a higher assumed future inflation scenario.
Rising interest rates was the dominant story in 2022. Did fixed income losses cripple insurance companies? Or has the insurance industry shifted the risk to your clients who purchased their products?
This important milestone is the culmination of decades’ worth of research and lots of trial and error, and it makes good on the hope that humanity will one day enjoy 100% clean and plentiful energy.
If you think high-yield savings accounts offer juicy rates to park some cash, wait until you see what money-market funds are paying.
Democratization has become a buzz word within the fintech industry as technology and innovation have emerged to battle the headwinds that previously blocked accessibility to a subset of investment vehicles such as structured products.
Global Investment Report's 3Q Update of the 2022 hedge fund survey.
There are two types of tax-advantaged accounts for saving for college expenses: A Uniform Transfers to Minors Act (UTMA) account and a 529 Plan. While both plans have their differences and advantages, consider both as viable options.
Falling prices for cars and holiday discounting contributed to softer U.S. inflation, creating more room for the Fed to potentially dial back its hawkish stance.
One thing to consider when opening a 529 plan is whether it should be a custodial or individual account. While both allow you to save for college costs and enjoy some tax breaks, they differ in terms of who has control of the account and the assets in it.
As the US economy veered toward the biggest inflation shock in four decades, investors flocked to the one corner of Wall Street that seemed a sure-fire refuge: Treasuries that provide extra compensation to keep up with rising consumer prices.
The path of US inflation in 2023 may have more surprises in store after a year in which consumers suffered the biggest cost-of-living hit in 40 years, spurring steep interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and spooking investors.
“Verb sales” in retirement income, or in liability minimization, needs regulatory support immediately. By “verbs,” I mean selling services – such as financial planning – rather than “nouns” – such as investment products like annuities.
More balanced risk strategies in PLIBs are likely to be optimal (e.g., 40-50% equities), although the ability to personalize the risk level is important based on the household situation and preferences.
A near-total ban on imports of Russian crude into the European Union is finally hitting Russia’s oil revenue. Concerns that it would provide the Kremlin with a windfall to fund its war in Ukraine have been confounded — for now.
The Federal Reserve is set to disappoint Wall Street as it keeps rates at their peak throughout 2023, dashing hopes markets have priced in for rate cuts in the second half and making a recession very likely.
From homeowners renting out spare rooms to publicly traded real estate investment trusts, landlords in colder areas of the US are bracing for their heating costs to soar this winter.
Some of the world's biggest investors predict that stocks will see low double-digit gains next year, which would bring relief after global equities suffered their worst loss since 2008.
“95 years ago, your crystal ball reveals: Russian debt default, LTCM fail, DotCom implosion, 9/11 attacks, financial crisis and great recession, pandemic killing millions, 3 market crashes. Would you put your money into stocks? No? You missed a 10X return.”
In his latest memo, Howard Marks weaves together some of the themes he’s explored in 2022 to explain what he believes really matters in investing and what doesn’t. He discusses the disadvantages of short-term thinking, the difference between volatility and risk, and the one word he believes defines the essence of investment excellence.
All the talk lately about the size of the national debt is obscuring the real problem: The US government made the wrong bet on interest rates, and that will cost taxpayers for years to come.
As clients age and their financial lives evolve, most reach a point where they stop accumulating investment assets and begin taking distributions from their investment and retirement portfolios. This presentation introduces financial advisors to a comprehensive approach to creating longevity-oriented investment portfolios and managing retirement income.
There’s enormous scope for India and Greater China to increase GDP per capita relative to the U.S. and other developed nations
Oil fell the most in more than two weeks as broader equity markets collapsed and risk-averse investors pared crude positions ahead of the end of the year.
I explore some of the factors driving the superiority of PLIBs, in particular lapsation, mortality experience differences, accessing the equity risk premium, and the marginal role of annuities as part of a retirement strategy.
Let’s look at the powerful feature set an advisory firm could put together from a collection of the higher-rated, low-market-share programs and solutions that I’ve collected from past surveys, many of which you may not even be aware of.
Pain is deepening across the US real estate industry. Two of the biggest players — Blackstone Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. — took steps this week to contend with weaker demand as the industry faces a rapidly cooling property market, rising interest rates and waning investor appetite.
After months of planning and negotiations, the biggest tranche of sanctions on Russian oil to date are about to take effect -- how big their impact will remain uncertain.
Like stuck card players trying to win it all back in one hand, equity bulls are dialing up risk appetites at the tail-end of a brutal year.
Considering what General Motors is saying about its electric vehicles, the company seems to view the Inflation Reduction Act that President Joe Biden signed into law in August as a sort of put that protects the big investments it’s making in battery and EV production.
Remember, the Fed hikes short-term interest rates to slow long-term growth and inflation.
Insurance & Annuities
How the Greatest Female Poker Player Reduces Risk
Annie Duke’s latest and best of her books, Quit, is on making decisions under uncertainty.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.
US Economy Shows Slowdown Signs After Growing 2.9% Last Quarter
The US economy grew faster than forecast into the end of 2022, but there were signs of slowing underlying demand as the steepest interest-rate hikes in decades threaten growth this year.
Municipal Bonds: Is it Safe to Get Back in the Water?
Investors are still recovering from the municipal market beatdown of 2022, but the current higher absolute yield levels provide an attractive “re-entry” point for municipal market investors.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 6K, Better Than Forecast
This morning's seasonally adjusted 186K new claims, down 6k from the previous week's revised figure, came in below the Investing.com forecast of 205K.
Crypto Is Worth Fixing. Regulators Should Get Moving
The once-burgeoning realm of crypto and decentralized finance keeps imploding, presenting policy makers with a quandary: Should they just let it burn, or step in to address its now-obvious flaws?
Stocks Lack Direction in Choppy Trading
U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.
1099 Season – An Opportunity for Tax-Aware Advisors
2022 was a banner year, and not in a good way.
A Charitable Way to Beat Taxes in the Afterlife
COVID-19 has been a catalyst for change in many aspects of our lives, not least the migration to flexible working, which would have taken many more years without the pandemic’s brutal intervention.
Creating a Plan for Long-Term Care
Two major issues clients should consider in creating their own long-term care plan are where they will live and how they will pay for the care they are likely to need.
Ask Brad: Do You Rent or Own Your Advisory Practice?
Do you fear looking back at your career one day and asking yourself “what if” you had made a move to independence?
Rearview Mirror OK, Collision Ahead
First, the good news: we estimate that real GDP grew at a solid 2.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter.
How to Save for Retirement by Paying Down Your Student Loans
Paying down student debt or saving for retirement can seem like mutually exclusive goals. A little-known workplace benefit could soon allow more workers to do both.
CB LEI: 10th Consecutive Decline in December, Recession Signal Continues
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for December was down 1% from the November final figure of 111.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline.
Why I’m Waiting for the Fed to Pivot
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
How Custodial Competition Will Transform the Advisor Space
It’s big news that Envestnet is moving into the RIA custodial space and will soon be competing head-to-head with its biggest integration partners: an expanded Schwab platform, Fidelity and Pershing. I suspect that this is just the first of many so-called software “platforms” that will jump into the custody competition.
US Market Watchers Are Fretting Over the Biggest January Options Expiry in a Decade
Market watchers on Wall Street attribute this week’s stock selloff to the insidious threat of recession.
Will Your Clients' Retirement Resources Cover Long-Term Care?
The greatest financial risk for depleting retirement resources is an unexpected and lengthy stay in a long-term healthcare facility.
Payden & Rygel 2023 Macro Outlook: Macro Memes & Mind Viruses
We call them narratives, memes, or mind viruses.
Beware of the “Obvious” Trade
Last year an infamous cryptocurrency ad featured the slogan “fortune favors the brave.” And while historically fortune does favor the brave, there is a difference between courage and blind faith.
A Sale Can Enhance a High-Performing Growth Culture
For the past few years, regardless of price, there's been a buyer for every RIA seller. But that won’t continue.
Southwest Will Pay for Its Failures, but will Broker-Dealers?
Southwest Airlines cancelled 16,000 holiday flights. It will cost the airline dearly in reputational rage and lawsuits. Will massive Reg BI compliance failures cost BDs?
Will RIAs be Liable for Failed Retirement Income Planning?
Let me share a story of an RIA who will be forced to mount a legal defense because of a lawsuit that is likely to be filed by two of his retired clients.
Challenging Morningstar’s Safe Withdrawal Rates
Morningstar’s latest research showed higher safe spending rates across all asset allocations over all time horizons. I don’t agree with those results.
Lessons from the Markets in 2022
Markets provided investors with a dozen lessons in 2022 (and a bonus one in the postscript).
Unsecure
The omnibus spending bill puts our retirement system on an even less sustainable basis.
Wall Street's Lucrative Leveraged-Debt Machine Is Breaking Down
One of the most lucrative money-making machines in the world of finance is all clogged up, threatening a year of pain for Wall Street banks and private-equity barons as a decade-long deal boom goes bust.
Cheap Isn’t Always a Bargain
During the holiday season, everyone is looking for a good deal. While searching by the highest percentage discounts seems like it may lead to a steal, the results tend to be underwhelming. Investors often make the same mistake during bear markets.
Wall Street's New ESG Money-Maker Promises Nature Conservation - With a Catch
Big global banks are eying some of the world’s most fragile countries for a new experiment in financial engineering: debt relief in exchange for environmental protections.
US Inflation Cools Again, Putting Fed on Track to Downshift
US inflation continued to slow in December, adding to evidence price pressures have peaked and putting the Federal Reserve on track to again slow the pace of interest-rate hikes.
Top US Banks Slash Bond Sales, a Bright Spot for Investors
The six biggest Wall Street banks are expected to slash their corporate bond issuance in 2023 for a second year in a row, offering a bright spot for investors nursing record losses from the debt last year.
Consumer Price Index: December Headline at 6.45%, Down from November
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 6.45%, down from 7.11% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 5.71%, down from 5.96% the previous month.
Banks' Revenue Bonanza Seen Under Threat From Looming US Recession
The market volatility and interest-rate hikes that gave US banks their biggest windfall last year may prove to be their biggest headache in 2023.
How to Manage a Leaderless Practice
My firm’s leader had a major unexpected undiagnosed medical issue. He walked out of the office one day and I haven’t seen him for four weeks.
Gimme a Break, Bro – Stop the TikTok Grifters
Can you believe these grifters hawking indexed universal life (IUL) insurance on TikTok? Here’s the actions I’m taking to put an end to this predatory nonsense.
A Sale Can Enhance a High-Performing Growth Culture
For the past few years, regardless of price, there's been a buyer for every RIA seller. But that won’t continue.
The Dangers of Monte Carlo Simulations
Probability-based retirement income strategies are highly sensitive to the capital market assumptions used in Monte Carlo analysis. Seemingly small changes in those assumptions can mean the difference between projecting a comfortable lifestyle and financial ruin.
Plan for More Wealth Destruction
Tight monetary policy and rising government debt will drive a regime of high interest rates, depressing stock prices and destroying the wealth of clients, most severely those at or near retirement.
How to Build a Bond Ladder Using ETFs
Build your ladder with multiple target-maturity ETFs representing different segments of the bond market, with different target years.
The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Fed Officials Call for More Rate Hikes Even as Price Pressures Cool
Federal Reserve officials Friday stressed further interest-rate hikes are needed to tame inflation even though there are emerging signs that price pressures are cooling.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: December Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December saw a 223K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%. The Investing.com consensus was for 200K jobs gained.
Municipal Outlook: Fresh Opportunities After the Pressures of 2022
Municipal Bond Strategist Jim Grabovac shares his views on outflows, trends and opportunities in the municipal sector.
Buffett’s Five Golden Rules for Advisor Marketing
Here are my five golden rules of marketing for advisors from Warren Buffett.
500 Reasons to Eliminate the Income Cap for Social Security Taxes
In the first few days of 2023, at least 500 US workers will likely have already paid their Social Security taxes for the year.
What Could Go Wrong for the Federal Reserve in 2023
In some ways, the 2023 economic outlook for the US is locked in. The Federal Reserve’s goal is to push the rate of inflation back down to 2% over the next few years.
The Four Unique Risks in Decumulation
Relative to the accumulation phase, strategies that mitigate the unique risks faced by retirees in decumulation are less understood and researched. By identifying and illustrating those risks, planners can better prepare clients for retirement.
Make that Last Check Bounce
Billionaire philanthropist Chuck Feeney is credited with saying, “I want the last check I write to bounce.” While that is ideal, it’s unrealistic. Or is it?
The Elderly Keep Accumulating Assets
Contrary to what financial theory predicts, new research from Europe shows that the elderly accumulate assets later in life than expected, likely because they want to leave bequests, are receiving pensions, or are reluctant to part with assets such as their homes.
New Retirement Rule Delaying Withdrawals Could Bite
Wealthy retirees seem to have scored big in Congress’ sweeping year-end spending package.
Reflecting Back on a Testing Year and Looking Ahead to 2023
The market dislocations and skyrocketing inflation of the last year put longstanding retirement maxims to the test and that test isn’t over yet.
Our Top 10 Most Popular Investing Articles of 2022
As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read investment and planning articles over the past 12 months. Tomorrow, we will highlight the 10 most-read practice management articles.
Private Debt Funds Offer Attractive Yield
Private credit can be an attractive asset that has provided high yield and protection against the risks of rising inflation. In addition, the asset class has a strong credit history – specifically senior, secured, sponsored debt.
Look for a Slightly More Dovish Tilt to the Fed's Policy Group in 2023
The Federal Reserve’s policy makers are going to become incrementally more dovish in 2023, as a new roster of senior officials brings a greater focus on maximum employment to its policy-setting committee.
FTX Claims Lure Some Big Players in Distressed Market
The remains of Sam Bankman-Fried’s former empire FTX Group are drawing interest from some of the largest names in distressed investing, in a daredevil bet that heavily discounted creditor claims on the bankrupt cryptocurrency conglomerate will ultimately pay off.
Talking with Aging Parents about Health and Wealth
Here are nine tips that will help your family members stay healthy and financially secure as they age.
Themes From A Busy Year
The economics teams looks back at the most significant stories we covered during 2022.
Top Global Risks of 2023
Considering that a new year almost always brings surprises of one form or another, we've highlighted our top five that may define the global markets in 2023.
The Current Yield Curve Inversion, Explained
The Fed has massively inverted the yield curve. We explain why investors might be frontrunning themselves and why the long-term rate won’t budge.
Online Banks versus Traditional Banks: Which Is Best for Your Clients?
Here’s a breakdown of the pros and cons of trading in your traditional bank for a virtual banking experience.
Three Strategies to Strengthen Household Balance Sheets
I will use an example and an actuarial model to compare the efficiency of three strategies for strengthening a retired or near-retired client’s balance sheet under both a lower and a higher assumed future inflation scenario.
Did Rising Rates Cripple the Insurance Industry?
Rising interest rates was the dominant story in 2022. Did fixed income losses cripple insurance companies? Or has the insurance industry shifted the risk to your clients who purchased their products?
Ignition! Fusion Energy Comes Closer To Being A Reality, With Exciting Investment Opportunities
This important milestone is the culmination of decades’ worth of research and lots of trial and error, and it makes good on the hope that humanity will one day enjoy 100% clean and plentiful energy.
Starving for Yield? Check Out Money-Market Funds
If you think high-yield savings accounts offer juicy rates to park some cash, wait until you see what money-market funds are paying.
Democratization: More Than Just a Buzz Word
Democratization has become a buzz word within the fintech industry as technology and innovation have emerged to battle the headwinds that previously blocked accessibility to a subset of investment vehicles such as structured products.
Top 50 Hedge Funds Outperform the Market by 28 percentage points through the first nine months of the year
Global Investment Report's 3Q Update of the 2022 hedge fund survey.
How an UTMA Compares to a 529 Plan
There are two types of tax-advantaged accounts for saving for college expenses: A Uniform Transfers to Minors Act (UTMA) account and a 529 Plan. While both plans have their differences and advantages, consider both as viable options.
U.S. Inflation Eased More Than Expected in November as Fed Eyes Pause in Rate‑Hike Cycle Next Year
Falling prices for cars and holiday discounting contributed to softer U.S. inflation, creating more room for the Fed to potentially dial back its hawkish stance.
529 Plans: Custodial versus Individual
One thing to consider when opening a 529 plan is whether it should be a custodial or individual account. While both allow you to save for college costs and enjoy some tax breaks, they differ in terms of who has control of the account and the assets in it.
Inflation Was So Bad That It Even Crushed Inflation-Linked Bonds
As the US economy veered toward the biggest inflation shock in four decades, investors flocked to the one corner of Wall Street that seemed a sure-fire refuge: Treasuries that provide extra compensation to keep up with rising consumer prices.
What to Expect in the Last Consumer Price Inflation Report of the Year, and What’s Ahead
The path of US inflation in 2023 may have more surprises in store after a year in which consumers suffered the biggest cost-of-living hit in 40 years, spurring steep interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and spooking investors.
The Time to Define Insurance Advising is Now
“Verb sales” in retirement income, or in liability minimization, needs regulatory support immediately. By “verbs,” I mean selling services – such as financial planning – rather than “nouns” – such as investment products like annuities.
Optimal Risk Levels for PLIB Strategies: Personalization is Key
More balanced risk strategies in PLIBs are likely to be optimal (e.g., 40-50% equities), although the ability to personalize the risk level is important based on the household situation and preferences.
Russia Is Feeling the Pain of Europe’s Oil Embargo
A near-total ban on imports of Russian crude into the European Union is finally hitting Russia’s oil revenue. Concerns that it would provide the Kremlin with a windfall to fund its war in Ukraine have been confounded — for now.
Fed Expected to Keep Peak Rates for Longer, Dashing Hopes for 2023 Cuts
The Federal Reserve is set to disappoint Wall Street as it keeps rates at their peak throughout 2023, dashing hopes markets have priced in for rate cuts in the second half and making a recession very likely.
Surging Heating Costs Squeeze Landlords and Threaten Higher Rents
From homeowners renting out spare rooms to publicly traded real estate investment trusts, landlords in colder areas of the US are bracing for their heating costs to soar this winter.
Top Money Managers See Global Stocks Gaining in 2023
Some of the world's biggest investors predict that stocks will see low double-digit gains next year, which would bring relief after global equities suffered their worst loss since 2008.
Newsletter Volume 15, No. 5
“95 years ago, your crystal ball reveals: Russian debt default, LTCM fail, DotCom implosion, 9/11 attacks, financial crisis and great recession, pandemic killing millions, 3 market crashes. Would you put your money into stocks? No? You missed a 10X return.”
What Really Matters?
In his latest memo, Howard Marks weaves together some of the themes he’s explored in 2022 to explain what he believes really matters in investing and what doesn’t. He discusses the disadvantages of short-term thinking, the difference between volatility and risk, and the one word he believes defines the essence of investment excellence.
We’ll All Pay for Uncle Sam’s Cheap Debt Fantasies
All the talk lately about the size of the national debt is obscuring the real problem: The US government made the wrong bet on interest rates, and that will cost taxpayers for years to come.
Road of Retirement: The Process of Managing Retirement Income
As clients age and their financial lives evolve, most reach a point where they stop accumulating investment assets and begin taking distributions from their investment and retirement portfolios. This presentation introduces financial advisors to a comprehensive approach to creating longevity-oriented investment portfolios and managing retirement income.
India and Greater China: Exploring the Investment Opportunities
There’s enormous scope for India and Greater China to increase GDP per capita relative to the U.S. and other developed nations
Oil Slumps Further Below $80 as Broad Selloff Dents Markets
Oil fell the most in more than two weeks as broader equity markets collapsed and risk-averse investors pared crude positions ahead of the end of the year.
The Drivers of the Efficiency of Protected Lifetime Income Benefit (PLIB) Strategies: Part 3
I explore some of the factors driving the superiority of PLIBs, in particular lapsation, mortality experience differences, accessing the equity risk premium, and the marginal role of annuities as part of a retirement strategy.
The Alternative Tech Stack
Let’s look at the powerful feature set an advisory firm could put together from a collection of the higher-rated, low-market-share programs and solutions that I’ve collected from past surveys, many of which you may not even be aware of.
Why Blackstone’s $69 Billion Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead for Real Estate Industry
Pain is deepening across the US real estate industry. Two of the biggest players — Blackstone Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. — took steps this week to contend with weaker demand as the industry faces a rapidly cooling property market, rising interest rates and waning investor appetite.
Europe Sets Russian Oil at $60 a Barrel: What Changes Now
After months of planning and negotiations, the biggest tranche of sanctions on Russian oil to date are about to take effect -- how big their impact will remain uncertain.
Stock Market Gamblers Let It Ride Again in Brutal Year
Like stuck card players trying to win it all back in one hand, equity bulls are dialing up risk appetites at the tail-end of a brutal year.
Biden's Climate Bill Is a Put Option on Automakers' Big EV Bets
Considering what General Motors is saying about its electric vehicles, the company seems to view the Inflation Reduction Act that President Joe Biden signed into law in August as a sort of put that protects the big investments it’s making in battery and EV production.
2023's Best Asset Class: Long-Term Treasuries?
Remember, the Fed hikes short-term interest rates to slow long-term growth and inflation.