Commentary

Equity Investment Outlook: The Pandemic’s Long Tail

In our latest outlook we examine the long-term implications of the pandemic, particularly changes to the labor market and the supply chain, and we discuss why we will be focusing on companies with pricing power in 2022.

Commentary

Total Return Outlook: We Have Liftoff!

Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.

Commentary

Strategic Income Outlook: One Heck of a Year

As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.

Commentary

In Search of Upside: Finding Opportunities in Small Cap Growth

Small cap growth stocks lagged for most of 2021 as the market simultaneously dealt with the pandemic, inflation, and tightening Fed policy. Given these challenges, we have been focusing on high quality companies trading at attractive valuations, and we have also been looking at non-technology businesses that are embracing digitization.

Commentary

Press Release: Osterweis Emerging Opportunity Fund Receives Five-Star Five-Year Morningstar Rating

The fund is rated 5 stars in the Small Cap Growth category for the 5-Year, 3-Year, & Overall Periods. As of November 30, 2021, the fund was rated against 507 small cap growth funds in the 5-year category and 574 funds in the 3-year and overall categories, based on total returns.

Commentary

Total Return Perspectives: November 2021

Interest rates were mixed in November, as shorter maturity yields continued to rise while longer maturity yields fell further. The continued flattening of the yield curve reflects the market’s expectation that the Fed will be more aggressive in their tapering of official purchases and potentially raise the fed funds target rate more quickly and aggressively than previously thought.

Commentary

Total Return Perspectives: October 2021

Interest rates were mixed in October, as shorter maturity yields rose while longer maturity yields fell. The dramatic flattening in the yield curve reflects the market expectation that the Fed will begin tapering its bond purchase program imminently and has pulled forward expectations for rate hikes once the taper is completed.

Commentary

Reasons for Optimism: Equity Investment Outlook Fourth Quarter

Concerns about inflation and a looming Fed taper weighed on markets during the third quarter, but in our view the post-pandemic economy is well-positioned for extended cycle of capital investment, providing the impetus for broadening economic growth and job creation.

Commentary

Still Waters Run Deep: Total Return Outlook Fourth Quarter 2021

The investment grade market was relatively calm in the third quarter, but we are concerned about undercurrents lying beneath the surface. In particular, we feel the dual threats of persistent inflation and a less accommodative Fed have the potential to impact pricing over the near to medium term.

Commentary

Everybody Is Looking for Something: Strategic Income Outlook Fourth Quarter

Despite multiple headwinds, including increasing inflation, rising rates, and tight labor markets, our view is that the U.S. economy is in good shape. Markets may experience higher volatility as the Fed begins to taper its bond buying program, but we expect that to be a short-term issue.

Commentary

“Is the Fed Ignoring Its Own Inflation Data?”

The Fed continues to assert that elevated inflation is largely due to “transitory factors,” but the Underlying Inflation Gauge, which is published by their own New York branch, tells a different story. To understand where inflation is heading, we advise investors to pay close attention to UIG data, even it if the Fed doesn’t.

Commentary

Total Return Perspectives: August 2021

U.S. Treasuries ended their 4-month streak of positive returns and falling yields in August. Intermediate maturity yields rose more than shorter and longer maturities, as the market began to see through the impact of the Delta variant and focus more on the Federal Reserve’s plan to scale back their bond buying program.

Commentary

Total Return Perspectives: July 2021

Longer term Treasury yields fell for a fourth consecutive month in July, as concerns around the resurgence of coronavirus weighed on forecasts for continued economic growth. Agency MBS underperformed investment grade corporates and Treasuries. While some inflation metrics set generational highs, and other economic data indicated a continued recovery, investors were focused on the potential impact of viral spread.

Commentary

A Market in Flux Equity Investment Outlook Third Quarter

Equities continued to rally in the second quarter, but the market remains undecided about whether the recent uptick in inflation is more likely to be transitory or persistent.

Commentary

Transitory, or Not Transitory? That is the Question. Total Return Outlook Third Quarter

Despite a strengthening economy in the second quarter, investors were highly focused on the Federal Reserve’s response to the recent spike in inflation data.