For the second meeting in a row, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%–4.50%.
The S&P 500 snapped its four-week losing streak, posting a 0.51% gain from the previous Friday.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 21, 2025 at 4.25%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.94% and the 30-year note ended at 4.59%.
The US stock market is on edge. The S&P 500’s recent 10% correction has investors worried, though a highly uncertain policy environment and an unusually top-heavy market obscure just what is spooking stocks.
Congress managed to avoid a government shutdown, but Democrats are divided on strategy.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, but downgraded the outlook for economic growth in the year ahead. Policy changes in Washington, looming tariffs, and a cautious consumer have made “uncertainty” the new favorite word in the Fed’s vocabulary.
Tariffs among developed countries could mean emerging market (EM) assets like bonds could garner interest.
It's been full steam ahead for active ETFs, with total assets now rapidly approaching the $1 trillion milestone.
In February, home values rose for the 23rd consecutive month, reaching a new all-time high, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for the 10th straight month, hitting their lowest level since May 2021.
EQT AB will return $5.4 billion to investors this week after completing the sale of a stake in Nord Anglia Education Ltd., marking one of the most profitable recent private equity exits in Asia, people familiar with the matter said.
Existing home sales rebounded in February with their largest monthly increase in a year. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 4.2% from January, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million units in February.
After years of poor decision-making, the federal government’s $1.64 trillion student loan program is in critical condition. Congress needs to stanch the bleeding — and give serious thought to overhauling this flawed system for the longer term.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed continued expansion though activity declined. In March, the index fell to 12.5 from 18.1 in February, the second consecutive monthly drop. The latest reading was higher than the forecast of 8.8.
Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.”
In the understatement of 2025 thus far, the headlines emanating from Washington, D.C., have been fast and furious. Whether they be tariff-related, involving federal government cuts or geopolitical in nature, there has been a headline for many facets that investors could think of.
Recession fears have risen sharply of late as economic soft data have rolled over, upping the risk that hard data start to catch down.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year asset class forecast as of February 28, 2025.
Receiving an unexpected gift or inheritance is something that people may dream about. Our Bill Cass discusses some key considerations if that dream becomes reality and you do receive a financial windfall.
A creative look at the parallels between March Madness and the bond market.
On March 11, Russell Investments hosted a webinar examining the challenges and opportunities presented by alternative diversifiers, including strategies for incorporating these solutions into portfolios.
In this week’s edition, we shift our focus to another critical segment of the ABS market: those tied to consumer loans, such as credit cards and auto loans.
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on February 4, equity markets have been under pressure as the S&P 500 has retraced more than 23% of the rally that started October 2023.
Most growth-focused advisors crave the next big marketing tactic, content platform, event idea, or growth “hack.” But after a decade of consulting RIAs on organic growth, I’ve seen firsthand that the biggest barriers to success aren’t what most people expect.
Microsoft Corp., the biggest backer of Sam Altman’s OpenAI, and BlackRock Inc., which has an executive on the artificial intelligence startup’s board, are joining forces with one of its chief rivals.
Private equity firms are called that because they own stakes in the companies they buy. Today, this assumption is looking ever more outdated.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management LLC is cutting its stake in Meta Platforms Inc. for the first time in around a year, the latest sign of a downturn in fortunes for big US tech stocks.
Bond investors will look for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to hit just the right notes in his Wednesday remarks to keep up the momentum behind a rally in the $29 trillion Treasury market.
The Trump administration isn’t satisfied with the mayhem it has already inflicted on global trade and investment.
The Defined Outcome investment landscape is rapidly evolving, offering new opportunities for managing risk and return with greater precision.
A time-honored belief holds that inflation is bad for stocks, but recent developments may be challenging this view.
The U.S. housing market has been a critical factor in the broader economic landscape, and its trends have profound implications.
Gas prices were down for a fourth straight week, hitting their lowest level in two months. As of March 17th, the price of regular and premium gas were down 1 and 2 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.373, up 2.0% from last week.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through February. The latest debt level is at $918.144 billion, just below its record high from January. Margin debt was down 2.0% month-over-month (MoM) and up 23.6% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, the debt level was down 2.5% MoM and up 20.2% YoY.
Banks needed the right version of Donald Trump to justify their high-flying stock prices. They got the wrong one. The US president’s chaotic and aggressive performance during his first few weeks in the White House has shocked companies, put investment plans and deals on hold and threatens to drag the economy into recession.
US investment firms are rushing to grab a greater chunk of Europe’s market for active exchange-traded funds, an industry projected to grow to $1 trillion in assets over the coming years.
I often encounter individuals struggling with financial stress – whether it's saving for retirement, building an emergency fund, or paying down debt. To better understand these concerns, Barnum conducted a comprehensive study on the financial wellness of working Americans.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits fell for a third straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.456 million in February. This marks a 1.2% decrease from January and a 6.9% decline compared to one year ago.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.501 million in February. This marks an 11.2% increase from January but a 2.9% decline compared to one year ago.
Last week’s economic data was plagued by uncertainty. A brief respite in inflation pressures was overshadowed by sentiment concerns.
With market uncertainty abound in today's macro and geopolitical climate, Berkshire Hathaway hasn't been immune to the volatility.
Policies to support mainstream crypto adoption are underway.
The recent sell-off has certainly sparked concerns with investors but the NYSE advance-decline line is an important technical measure to watch. However, what is it, and why does it matter?
The economy stands upon the edge of a knife as gold hits new highs. Plus, we review our predictions for gold and silver last year and provide our price predictions for 2025.
Five of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through March 17, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.05%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.29% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 9.20%.
Nominal retail sales in February were up 0.20% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.11% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.02% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month as economic uncertainty, tariff threats, and elevated construction costs continue to weigh on sentiment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, down 3 points from February and the lowest level since August. The latest reading was below the 42 forecast.
Manufacturing activity dropped significantly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing March survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 25.7 points to -20.0, the lowest level since January 2024. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.9.
Gen Z is right to have negative feelings about the economy. Not only were its oldest members entering the workforce as the pandemic struck, but those in their early to mid-20s are also now bearing the brunt of a labor market that’s largely been frozen in place for the past two years.
The tendency of stocks to produce all their gains at night, when markets are closed, and systematically lose money during the daylight hours, has baffled researchers for four decades and potentially put retail investors at a disadvantage.
When breakthroughs occur, researchers get the lion’s share of the credit. But they owe a big debt of gratitude to those who collect and organize the data with which insight is manufactured.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for February showed a moderate rebound last month, with headline sales rising 0.2%. Meanwhile, January's figure was revised downward to a 1.2% loss. The latest data came in weaker than the anticipated 0.6% growth in consumer spending.
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
One thing we have seen underscored in 2025 is that the bond market can change its mind very quickly, particularly as it relates to policy emanating from Washington, D.C. Following President Trump’s election win, the dominant theme in the U.S. Treasury (UST) arena was that his Administration’s policies would lead to higher budget deficits, increasing UST supply and, ultimately, higher rates for maturities like the 10-Year yield.
During the onset of the COVID crisis, I made a note to myself to write an update in five years to discuss what happened to the markets since that trying period of time. This week, I received a task alert in Salesforce reminding me to write that update.
News headlines this week have been dominated by recession fears in the U.S., with the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 shedding value. Yet, amid this rising uncertainty, a positive story is emerging—the performance of European markets.
Cinthia Murphy, TMX VettaFi Investment Strategist interviews retirement expert and author of "Your Best Financial Life," Anne Lester. Anne will be hosting "Retirement: Communicating with (B)oomers to Gen(Z)," an engaging and exciting workshop at the Exchange conference in Las Vegas.
It was only three years ago that a dispute between an infamous crypto billionaire and a titan of the financial establishment became the center of attention at an annual event known as the Davos of the derivatives market.
An “insurance renaissance” is quietly reshaping a traditionally sleepy industry as a surge in annuities sales fuels demand for investment products with shorter duration and less liquidity, according to AllianceBernstein, an $806 billion asset manager owned by insurer Equitable.
Ben Inker and John Pease look at the economics of trade and tariffs at a theoretical level and explain why broadly applied tariffs are a needlessly economically way to achieve U.S. goals.
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
In today’s rapidly evolving financial landscape, advisors are expected to be more than just portfolio managers. Clients don’t just want investment recommendations—they seek a trusted partner who understands their financial needs, offers strategic guidance and provides peace of mind during turbulent times.
It was inevitable. Certain pieces of the market roared to insane valuations last year. Investors poured money into the markets and speculated stocks would keep rising forever. But, sentiment has shifted.
March came in like a lion, much to the bears’ delight. The S&P 500® plunged from its February 19 high on the heels of stern tariff talk and phrases like “a little bit of an adjustment period” from President Trump and the economy entering a “detox period,” as Treasury Secretary Bessent said last week.
The Liberal Party of Canada has wrapped up its leadership race, with Mark Carney winning by an overwhelming margin.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Warmer weather means that many animals come out of hibernation. Unfortunately for investors, market bears have also awakened from their slumber.
The average US 30-year mortgage rate declined for a sixth straight week to the lowest level since early December, sparking a pickup in purchase and refinancing activity.
US stocks gained after a volatile session as dip buyers emerged after a cooler-than-forecast February inflation report.
In a few short weeks, President Donald Trump has started silencing the buy-the-dip stock traders who set the tone on Wall Street for the better part of two decades.
After a search for a new chief executive officer that lasted more than three months, Intel Corp. has decided Lip-Bu Tan is the best choice to salvage the company’s future. He’ll take up the most difficult job in the chip business, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday evening.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for February. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 151,000.
Wholesale inflation eased significantly in February, slowing more than expected. The producer price index for final demand was flat month-over-month, down from 0.6% in January and lower than the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.2%, down from 3.7% in January and below the 3.3% forecast.
Learn why discounting can harm your reputation as an advisor and discover strategies to build trust and confidence with clients.
Navigating tax season can be even more confusing when facing the range of rules around IRA withdrawals, 529 plan distributions, and charitable deductions. Our Bill Cass details some common questions around tax filing.
Most of us associate 529 accounts with college savings. They’re flexible, allowing you to transfer assets to anyone, including yourself, for the express purpose of furthering the education of your beneficiary. But did you know that a 529 can be a powerful estate planning tool?
Investors who have come to us in the last three to four years are probably wondering if we’ve been here before. By here, we mean a stretch of significant underperformance relative to our benchmarks. The answer is, yes. Let’s review those prior circumstances to see if we can learn something about where we might be headed.
Three months into 2025, the U.S. IPO (initial public offering) market remains in a rut. Why? And, perhaps just as importantly, is a rebound still possible?
Stock/bond divergence allows investors to reap the benefits of portfolio diversification, giving bond exchange-traded funds credence.
On the latest Road to Exchange, VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam interviewed author and Bread founder Kyla Scanlon. Scanlon is most known for her work as an influencer and her widely praised book, “In This Economy?,” Scanlon, who dissects and comments on markets in a unique way, will be speaking at the Exchange conference.
Inflation cooled for the first time in five months in February. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.8% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, cooling to 3.1% year-over-year.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies didn’t do much of anything following last week’s crypto summit at the White House.
If you have ever filed a homeowners insurance claim, you know it can feel more like an endurance test than a straightforward process. While insurers are legally required to honor valid claims, they have strong financial incentives to delay, underpay, or deny them whenever possible.
As we wade into March, market volatility is at the forefront, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and mixed economic signals. Though the S&P 500 experienced a bounce towards February's end, it slipped 1% overall, revealing lingering challenges for iconic tech stocks and the broader equity landscape.
Global investment themes are shifting toward infrastructure, cybersecurity and energy expansion as demand outpaces supply in key sectors.
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas spotlights the firm’s innovative ADRhedged ETFs and explains the rationale for removing currency exposure. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang discusses several recent ETF launches, including offerings from State Street, VistaShares, Quantify Funds, and Roundhill.
Six of the nine indexes on our emerging markets watch list have posted gains through March 10, 2025. Russia's MOEX is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 11.1%. Chile's IPSA is in second with a year to date gain of 10.1% while South Korea's KOSPI is in third with a year to date gain of 8.84%.
Modern direct indexing tools, using sophisticated technology, can identify tax loss opportunities on a daily or even minute-by-minute basis. As time progresses, I believe more advisors will see the potential of direct indexing.
Costco's earnings may have disappointed in the near-term, but the company may be in a prime position to perform during a tariff showdown.
ETF
Fed Watch: Let’s Just Wait and See
For the second meeting in a row, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%–4.50%.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Four-Week Losing Streak Snapped
The S&P 500 snapped its four-week losing streak, posting a 0.51% gain from the previous Friday.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 21, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 21, 2025 at 4.25%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.94% and the 30-year note ended at 4.59%.
What Spooked the S&P 500? It Wasn’t the Trade War
The US stock market is on edge. The S&P 500’s recent 10% correction has investors worried, though a highly uncertain policy environment and an unusually top-heavy market obscure just what is spooking stocks.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Congress managed to avoid a government shutdown, but Democrats are divided on strategy.
Uncertain
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, but downgraded the outlook for economic growth in the year ahead. Policy changes in Washington, looming tariffs, and a cautious consumer have made “uncertainty” the new favorite word in the Fed’s vocabulary.
Emerging Market Bonds Could Garner Interest Amid Tariffs
Tariffs among developed countries could mean emerging market (EM) assets like bonds could garner interest.
Nearing $1 Trillion: Active ETF Engine Roars On
It's been full steam ahead for active ETFs, with total assets now rapidly approaching the $1 trillion milestone.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Values Hit Lowest Level Since May 2021
In February, home values rose for the 23rd consecutive month, reaching a new all-time high, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for the 10th straight month, hitting their lowest level since May 2021.
EQT Returns $5.4 Billion to Investors After Education Bet Soars
EQT AB will return $5.4 billion to investors this week after completing the sale of a stake in Nord Anglia Education Ltd., marking one of the most profitable recent private equity exits in Asia, people familiar with the matter said.
Existing Home Sales Rebound 4.2% in February
Existing home sales rebounded in February with their largest monthly increase in a year. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 4.2% from January, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million units in February.
The Student Lending Mess Needs to Be Fixed
After years of poor decision-making, the federal government’s $1.64 trillion student loan program is in critical condition. Congress needs to stanch the bleeding — and give serious thought to overhauling this flawed system for the longer term.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Continued to Expand in March
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed continued expansion though activity declined. In March, the index fell to 12.5 from 18.1 in February, the second consecutive monthly drop. The latest reading was higher than the forecast of 8.8.
Stupidity And The 5-Laws Not To Follow
Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.”
From the Beltway to Main St.: Certain Uncertainty
In the understatement of 2025 thus far, the headlines emanating from Washington, D.C., have been fast and furious. Whether they be tariff-related, involving federal government cuts or geopolitical in nature, there has been a headline for many facets that investors could think of.
A Future Uncertain: Recession Coming?
Recession fears have risen sharply of late as economic soft data have rolled over, upping the risk that hard data start to catch down.
GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecast: February 2025
GMO has posted a new 7-Year asset class forecast as of February 28, 2025.
Your Ship Finally Came In. Now What?
Receiving an unexpected gift or inheritance is something that people may dream about. Our Bill Cass discusses some key considerations if that dream becomes reality and you do receive a financial windfall.
March Madness in the Bond Market
A creative look at the parallels between March Madness and the bond market.
Rethinking Diversification – Alternative Downside Risk Management
On March 11, Russell Investments hosted a webinar examining the challenges and opportunities presented by alternative diversifiers, including strategies for incorporating these solutions into portfolios.
Peering Under the Hood of Auto and Credit Card ABS: Insights into US Consumer Resilience
In this week’s edition, we shift our focus to another critical segment of the ABS market: those tied to consumer loans, such as credit cards and auto loans.
Tactical Rules Turn More Bullish
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on February 4, equity markets have been under pressure as the S&P 500 has retraced more than 23% of the rally that started October 2023.
The No. 1 Growth Mistake Advisors Keep Making
Most growth-focused advisors crave the next big marketing tactic, content platform, event idea, or growth “hack.” But after a decade of consulting RIAs on organic growth, I’ve seen firsthand that the biggest barriers to success aren’t what most people expect.
Musk’s xAI Startup Joins Microsoft-BlackRock $30 Billion AI Fund
Microsoft Corp., the biggest backer of Sam Altman’s OpenAI, and BlackRock Inc., which has an executive on the artificial intelligence startup’s board, are joining forces with one of its chief rivals.
Private Equity Firms Are Getting Rid of Their Equity
Private equity firms are called that because they own stakes in the companies they buy. Today, this assumption is looking ever more outdated.
Cathie Wood Sells Meta Shares for First Time in Nearly a Year
Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management LLC is cutting its stake in Meta Platforms Inc. for the first time in around a year, the latest sign of a downturn in fortunes for big US tech stocks.
Investors Look for Fed’s Take on Growth After US Bond Rally
Bond investors will look for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to hit just the right notes in his Wednesday remarks to keep up the momentum behind a rally in the $29 trillion Treasury market.
Europe’s VAT Hurts the US? Retaliate With a VAT
The Trump administration isn’t satisfied with the mayhem it has already inflicted on global trade and investment.
A Deep Dive into Buffered ETFs
The Defined Outcome investment landscape is rapidly evolving, offering new opportunities for managing risk and return with greater precision.
Equities as an Inflation Hedge?
A time-honored belief holds that inflation is bad for stocks, but recent developments may be challenging this view.
The U.S. Housing Market: Risks, Realities, and the Road Ahead
The U.S. housing market has been a critical factor in the broader economic landscape, and its trends have profound implications.
Gasoline Prices Down for Fourth Straight Week
Gas prices were down for a fourth straight week, hitting their lowest level in two months. As of March 17th, the price of regular and premium gas were down 1 and 2 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.373, up 2.0% from last week.
Margin Debt Falls for First Time in Six Months in February
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through February. The latest debt level is at $918.144 billion, just below its record high from January. Margin debt was down 2.0% month-over-month (MoM) and up 23.6% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, the debt level was down 2.5% MoM and up 20.2% YoY.
Investment Bankers Finally Start to Take Trump Literally
Banks needed the right version of Donald Trump to justify their high-flying stock prices. They got the wrong one. The US president’s chaotic and aggressive performance during his first few weeks in the White House has shocked companies, put investment plans and deals on hold and threatens to drag the economy into recession.
Wall Street Firms Plunge Into Europe’s Booming Active ETF Market
US investment firms are rushing to grab a greater chunk of Europe’s market for active exchange-traded funds, an industry projected to grow to $1 trillion in assets over the coming years.
Empowering Clients Through Financial Guidance
I often encounter individuals struggling with financial stress – whether it's saving for retirement, building an emergency fund, or paying down debt. To better understand these concerns, Barnum conducted a comprehensive study on the financial wellness of working Americans.
Building Permits Fall 1.2% in February
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits fell for a third straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.456 million in February. This marks a 1.2% decrease from January and a 6.9% decline compared to one year ago.
Housing Starts Jump 11.2% in February
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.501 million in February. This marks an 11.2% increase from January but a 2.9% decline compared to one year ago.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Relief Tempered by Sentiment Concerns
Last week’s economic data was plagued by uncertainty. A brief respite in inflation pressures was overshadowed by sentiment concerns.
Bulls & Bears Weigh in On Berkshire Hathaway
With market uncertainty abound in today's macro and geopolitical climate, Berkshire Hathaway hasn't been immune to the volatility.
Spreading Stablecoins
Policies to support mainstream crypto adoption are underway.
NYSE A/D Line: A Topping Process In Progress?
The recent sell-off has certainly sparked concerns with investors but the NYSE advance-decline line is an important technical measure to watch. However, what is it, and why does it matter?
Gold Outlook 2025 Brief
The economy stands upon the edge of a knife as gold hits new highs. Plus, we review our predictions for gold and silver last year and provide our price predictions for 2025.
World Markets Watchlist: March 17, 2025
Five of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through March 17, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.05%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.29% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 9.20%.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Flat in February
Nominal retail sales in February were up 0.20% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.11% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.02% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Uncertainty Drags Builder Confidence to 7-Month Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month as economic uncertainty, tariff threats, and elevated construction costs continue to weigh on sentiment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, down 3 points from February and the lowest level since August. The latest reading was below the 42 forecast.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Dropped Significantly in March
Manufacturing activity dropped significantly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing March survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 25.7 points to -20.0, the lowest level since January 2024. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.9.
Gen Z’s Job Recession Needs Urgent Attention
Gen Z is right to have negative feelings about the economy. Not only were its oldest members entering the workforce as the pandemic struck, but those in their early to mid-20s are also now bearing the brunt of a labor market that’s largely been frozen in place for the past two years.
We Still Need to Find Out Why Stocks Gains Come at Night
The tendency of stocks to produce all their gains at night, when markets are closed, and systematically lose money during the daylight hours, has baffled researchers for four decades and potentially put retail investors at a disadvantage.
Sustaining Economic Statistics
When breakthroughs occur, researchers get the lion’s share of the credit. But they owe a big debt of gratitude to those who collect and organize the data with which insight is manufactured.
Retail Sales Rise 0.2% in February, Weaker Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for February showed a moderate rebound last month, with headline sales rising 0.2%. Meanwhile, January's figure was revised downward to a 1.2% loss. The latest data came in weaker than the anticipated 0.6% growth in consumer spending.
Gold Smashes Through $3,000 as Recession Fears Mount
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
Discounting the D.C. Effect in the Bond Market
One thing we have seen underscored in 2025 is that the bond market can change its mind very quickly, particularly as it relates to policy emanating from Washington, D.C. Following President Trump’s election win, the dominant theme in the U.S. Treasury (UST) arena was that his Administration’s policies would lead to higher budget deficits, increasing UST supply and, ultimately, higher rates for maturities like the 10-Year yield.
One of Those Times
During the onset of the COVID crisis, I made a note to myself to write an update in five years to discuss what happened to the markets since that trying period of time. This week, I received a task alert in Salesforce reminding me to write that update.
Europe – A Bright Spot Amid Market Uncertainty
News headlines this week have been dominated by recession fears in the U.S., with the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 shedding value. Yet, amid this rising uncertainty, a positive story is emerging—the performance of European markets.
The Road to Exchange: Featuring Anne Lester
Cinthia Murphy, TMX VettaFi Investment Strategist interviews retirement expert and author of "Your Best Financial Life," Anne Lester. Anne will be hosting "Retirement: Communicating with (B)oomers to Gen(Z)," an engaging and exciting workshop at the Exchange conference in Las Vegas.
Wall Street Goes All In on Great Crypto Comeback Fueled by Trump
It was only three years ago that a dispute between an infamous crypto billionaire and a titan of the financial establishment became the center of attention at an annual event known as the Davos of the derivatives market.
An ‘Insurance Renaissance’ Is Fueling Private Credit Surge, Says AllianceBernstein
An “insurance renaissance” is quietly reshaping a traditionally sleepy industry as a surge in annuities sales fuels demand for investment products with shorter duration and less liquidity, according to AllianceBernstein, an $806 billion asset manager owned by insurer Equitable.
Trade: The Most Beautiful Word in the Dictionary
Ben Inker and John Pease look at the economics of trade and tariffs at a theoretical level and explain why broadly applied tariffs are a needlessly economically way to achieve U.S. goals.
Quality Is On Sale
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
Becoming Your Client’s Financial MD: A New Advisory Mindset
In today’s rapidly evolving financial landscape, advisors are expected to be more than just portfolio managers. Clients don’t just want investment recommendations—they seek a trusted partner who understands their financial needs, offers strategic guidance and provides peace of mind during turbulent times.
Are You Ready for the Rotation?
It was inevitable. Certain pieces of the market roared to insane valuations last year. Investors poured money into the markets and speculated stocks would keep rising forever. But, sentiment has shifted.
Honeywell’s Planned Spinoff and What It Means Amid Macro Volatility
March came in like a lion, much to the bears’ delight. The S&P 500® plunged from its February 19 high on the heels of stern tariff talk and phrases like “a little bit of an adjustment period” from President Trump and the economy entering a “detox period,” as Treasury Secretary Bessent said last week.
Election Debrief: Why the Era of Uncertainty May Continue in Canada
The Liberal Party of Canada has wrapped up its leadership race, with Mark Carney winning by an overwhelming margin.
Baby Boomer Employment Through the Decades
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Bears Awaken, but Don’t Fear the Volatility
Warmer weather means that many animals come out of hibernation. Unfortunately for investors, market bears have also awakened from their slumber.
US Mortgage Rates Drop for a Sixth Week to Lowest Since December
The average US 30-year mortgage rate declined for a sixth straight week to the lowest level since early December, sparking a pickup in purchase and refinancing activity.
US Stocks Rebound After Volatile Session on Softer CPI Data
US stocks gained after a volatile session as dip buyers emerged after a cooler-than-forecast February inflation report.
‘Buy The Dip’ Calls Fade as Trump Selloffs Rattle Wall Street
In a few short weeks, President Donald Trump has started silencing the buy-the-dip stock traders who set the tone on Wall Street for the better part of two decades.
Lip-Bu Tan’s ‘New Intel’ Is the Last Throw of the Dice
After a search for a new chief executive officer that lasted more than three months, Intel Corp. has decided Lip-Bu Tan is the best choice to salvage the company’s future. He’ll take up the most difficult job in the chip business, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday evening.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: February 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for February. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 151,000.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Eased Significantly in February
Wholesale inflation eased significantly in February, slowing more than expected. The producer price index for final demand was flat month-over-month, down from 0.6% in January and lower than the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.2%, down from 3.7% in January and below the 3.3% forecast.
When Little Things Become Big Problems
Learn why discounting can harm your reputation as an advisor and discover strategies to build trust and confidence with clients.
Seeking Clarity at Tax Season: Tackling Common Confusions
Navigating tax season can be even more confusing when facing the range of rules around IRA withdrawals, 529 plan distributions, and charitable deductions. Our Bill Cass details some common questions around tax filing.
529s Are More Than a College Savings Tool
Most of us associate 529 accounts with college savings. They’re flexible, allowing you to transfer assets to anyone, including yourself, for the express purpose of furthering the education of your beneficiary. But did you know that a 529 can be a powerful estate planning tool?
Been Here Before
Investors who have come to us in the last three to four years are probably wondering if we’ve been here before. By here, we mean a stretch of significant underperformance relative to our benchmarks. The answer is, yes. Let’s review those prior circumstances to see if we can learn something about where we might be headed.
Why Is the IPO Market Struggling? Here’s What Active Managers Have to Say
Three months into 2025, the U.S. IPO (initial public offering) market remains in a rut. Why? And, perhaps just as importantly, is a rebound still possible?
Stocks/Bonds Divergence Benefits Portfolio Diversification
Stock/bond divergence allows investors to reap the benefits of portfolio diversification, giving bond exchange-traded funds credence.
Road to Exchange: Kyla Scanlon on Human Economics
On the latest Road to Exchange, VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam interviewed author and Bread founder Kyla Scanlon. Scanlon is most known for her work as an influencer and her widely praised book, “In This Economy?,” Scanlon, who dissects and comments on markets in a unique way, will be speaking at the Exchange conference.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Cools to 2.8% in February
Inflation cooled for the first time in five months in February. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.8% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, cooling to 3.1% year-over-year.
Bitcoin Slump Myopic, Could Bring Opportunity, Says Expert
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies didn’t do much of anything following last week’s crypto summit at the White House.
How to Get Results on Homeowner Insurance Claims
If you have ever filed a homeowners insurance claim, you know it can feel more like an endurance test than a straightforward process. While insurers are legally required to honor valid claims, they have strong financial incentives to delay, underpay, or deny them whenever possible.
Navigating Market Turbulence: Decoding the Impact of Tariffs and Economic Trends
As we wade into March, market volatility is at the forefront, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and mixed economic signals. Though the S&P 500 experienced a bounce towards February's end, it slipped 1% overall, revealing lingering challenges for iconic tech stocks and the broader equity landscape.
From AI to Infrastructure: The 10 Investment Themes Defining the Next Five Years
Global investment themes are shifting toward infrastructure, cybersecurity and energy expansion as demand outpaces supply in key sectors.
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas Spotlights Currency Hedged Single Stock ETFs
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas spotlights the firm’s innovative ADRhedged ETFs and explains the rationale for removing currency exposure. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang discusses several recent ETF launches, including offerings from State Street, VistaShares, Quantify Funds, and Roundhill.
Emerging Markets Watchlist: March 10, 2025
Six of the nine indexes on our emerging markets watch list have posted gains through March 10, 2025. Russia's MOEX is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 11.1%. Chile's IPSA is in second with a year to date gain of 10.1% while South Korea's KOSPI is in third with a year to date gain of 8.84%.
Still Working the Night Shift
Modern direct indexing tools, using sophisticated technology, can identify tax loss opportunities on a daily or even minute-by-minute basis. As time progresses, I believe more advisors will see the potential of direct indexing.
Revisiting Direct Indexing in 2025
Modern direct indexing tools, using sophisticated technology, can identify tax loss opportunities on a daily or even minute-by-minute basis. As time progresses, I believe more advisors will see the potential of direct indexing.
Costco Earnings Showcase Opportunities Amid Tariff Worries
Costco's earnings may have disappointed in the near-term, but the company may be in a prime position to perform during a tariff showdown.
Stocks/Bonds Divergence Benefits Portfolio Diversification
Stock/bond divergence allows investors to reap the benefits of portfolio diversification, giving bond exchange-traded funds credence.