Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
Corporate America is regaining its appetite for risk as expectations build around Donald Trump’s push for deregulation and tax cuts, according to ARK Investment Management founder Cathie Wood.
Vanguard Group Inc., the investment giant famous for low-cost index funds, is seeking regulatory approval to expand its signature tax-saving fund structure — as anticipation grows that the Securities and Exchange Commission under Paul Atkins will soon embrace the design en masse.
For US traders, developing-country stocks have been a surprising source of returns as Donald Trump’s trade war roiled the S&P 500 Index.
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
With tariff news providing constant equity market fluctuations, the case for bonds becomes more compelling. The added uncertainty also punctuates the need for an active management strategy, which one particular Vanguard ETF offers.
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Today, Vanguard released its newest bond fund, the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
Advisors looking to add or enhance existing gold exposures in their portfolio have a range of strategies to consider within the ETF vehicle.
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
Robotics was one of the earliest examples of a disruptive technology. It enjoyed some time in the investment community limelight. But it was rapidly usurped by other innovative technologies, including AI.
The US housing market remains in a state of inertia. Despite the arrival of the spring selling season, both new and existing home sales continue to underwhelm.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Gas prices dropped for a third straight week this week. As of June 9th, the price of regular gas was down 2 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Analysts at firms including Barclays Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see further upside for US stocks, in part because they expect institutional investors to abandon their cautious stance and ramp up exposure to equities.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
Here’s the blunt truth: Many great investment strategies fail because of poor implementation. Robust capabilities in trading, transition management, overlays and currencies are critical to executing a strategy.
Investors looking to move big blocks of corporate bonds have long relied on exchange-traded funds listed on stock exchanges to jump in and out of positions. But now, they’re increasingly trading directly in the debt market.
The push to put private assets in the hands of individual investors is breathing new life into a relatively quiet corner of the asset management industry: interval funds.
For the first time in five months, gold-backed ETFs globally reported modest outflows in May as investors took profits.
Markets may be fretting over Federal Reserve policy and economic soft landings, but a handful of momentum ETFs have quietly been stealing the show. Across the array of factor funds, momentum has performed best this year.
After falling 0.7% in April, the S&P 500 gained 6.3% last month, marking the index’s best May return since 1990 and its best monthly return since November 2023 (see the chart).
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 9, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.23%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 17.73% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.93%.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in May.
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Vanguard Group Inc. is launching a low-cost fund focused on emerging-market stocks while explicitly avoiding China, muscling into a trade long dominated by BlackRock Inc.
Increasing investor preference for actively managed strategies continues in this year’s tumultuous environment. With active ETFs taking increasing market share, advisors and investors have ever-expanding choices when looking to augment existing passive exposures.
Rebounding demand from ETF investors and resilient buying from central banks and Asia retail have propelled gold prices to fresh records north of US$3,000/oz. Find out why we believe there is more room to run.
Last week, the labor market took center stage, presenting a nuanced picture of continued resilience alongside subtle signs of softening.
The S&P 500 closed above 6000 for the first time since mid-February. The index posted its second consecutive weekly gain, finishing up 1.5% from the previous Friday.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 6, 2025 at 4.51%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.04% and the 30-year note ended at 4.97%.
The ETF market saw a noticeable slowdown of new products launched in May; however, innovation continued to be a driving force.
Abstract SMID-cap investing offers stronger performance and lower volatility than small-caps alone. By using the Russell 2500 index, investors can retain top performers longer, reduce turnover, and enhance portfolio resilience and flexibility.
For four decades, the USA has relied on debt-financed consumption and a service-heavy economy to mask an unsustainable model.
Given the large pool of options available to fixed income investors in the bond market, the ideal option given the current economic uncertainty is still Treasuries. With that, Vanguard has three options worthy of consideration for any portfolio.
A new line of yield-chasing crypto funds is forcing the Securities and Exchange Commission to confront unresolved gaps in its regulatory framework, just as the Trump administration eases oversight of digital assets.
Since 2019 and the establishment of the ETF Rule, traditional active managers, armed with decades of expertise, have flocked to ETFs.
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since September 2023 as exports increased and imports declined. In April, the trade deficit fell 55.5% to -$61.6B. This marks the largest monthly decline since 1992.
Early signs of diminishing economic activity and inflation could be a harbinger for bond prices to rise. If so, consider taking advantage of a potential bond rally with a pair of ETFs from Vanguard.
Stocks rallied in May 2025 as trade tensions eased, but investor confidence remains fragile.
In our view, using quantitative methods in a transparent, repeatable way to extract alpha through diversified factor tilts offers a compelling alternative in this new IG environment.
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. appears to be one step closer to launching an exchange-traded fund tied to Bitcoin, joining the crowded field of crypto-investment offerings for the retail masses.
Passive capitalization-weighted index funds now surpass active management in aggregate investor allocations.
Value stocks and related ETFs have been decent performers of late. They’ve been generating buzz for a group of equities that long trailed growth stocks. Enthusiasm for value could earnestly be reborn. If so, investors should take that as a reminder to be judicious regarding evaluating value ETFs.
Closed-end funds can offer stable income streams, but also have some benefits over ETFs when it comes to fund structure.
On the trade front, investor uncertainty eased for a short time as President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs seemed to lose traction. Several key developments contributed, including a 90-day tariff pause with China, the signing of a US-UK trade agreement and progress on negotiations with other partners, including Europe.
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 36.0% from that peak.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 49.9—below the forecast of 52.0. This marks the first contraction for the index since June 2024.
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 53.7, above the 52.3 forecast. The reading marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion and was a noticeable pickup from April's 17-month low.
The U.S. Dollar Index is at a critical inflection point, and how it behaves from here will have a major impact on the direction of gold, silver, and commodities.
Market leadership is shifting and the once-dominant Magnificent 7 may no longer be so magnificent. Our latest report reveals why broader opportunities are emerging across sectors and regions, with quality, value, and growth converging in unexpected places.
Treasuries have been the default go-to safe haven bonds during times of heavy market volatility. But with Moody’s recent downgrade, an opportunity for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) exists.
Mortgage rates last week climbed to their highest levels since the beginning of the year on elevated economic risks. With markets still hopeful of at least one interest rate cut in the second half, the real estate sector stands poised to bounce back in a lower rate environment.
On this week’s episode of ETF Prime, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discusses the rise of active ETFs and anticipated ETF share class structure. Later, Fidelity’s Eric Granat and Christine Thorpe spotlight the Fidelity Hedged Equity ETF (FHEQ) and the Fidelity Total Bond ETF (FBND).
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2025 close.
Buying stocks is always hard. Particularly during corrections. Or, near market peaks. Or, when stocks are falling. And when they are rising. Oh, buying stocks is also tricky when valuations are high. And when they are low. You get the point.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?
Nvidia Corp. shares have staged a $1 trillion rebound in two months — and investors are betting the rally has further to go as fears about the chipmaker give way to optimism.
Our role isn’t just to manage assets; it’s to help clients stay grounded. We remind clients that investing is a long-term journey, and short-term volatility doesn’t have to knock them off course.
With the Q1 GDP second estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 207.8%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
f you are wondering why the S&P 500 Index has held up so well in the past two months, look no further than the technology and communications sectors, which collectively account for nearly half of the index by weighting.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
As investors grapple with nagging macro uncertainty, market volatility’s likely to continue. But we also see reasons for optimism — and new opportunities.
Last summer, if you recall, then-candidate Donald Trump made headlines as the first former U.S. president to speak at a Bitcoin conference. He pledged to lower the regulatory hurdles of the Biden administration, to kill Operation Choke Point 2.0, and to position the U.S. as the global leader in Bitcoin.
Treasury floating rate notes and ETFs like the WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR) are often seen as beneficial tools to fixed income investors when yields on U.S. government debt are rising.
This past week, news flow around policy came in hot and heavy, with President Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful’ tax cut bill passing the House of Representatives, and Trump threatening 50% tariffs on the European Union (EU).
VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Fidelity Enhanced International ETF (FENI) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Based on the May S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 38.7 is 155% above its arithmetic mean, 178% above its geometric mean, and is in the 99th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.89, up from 1.74 in April.
Last week's economic data presented a mixed but generally more positive outlook. Inflation continued its downward trend in April.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 26.4 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 35.0.
Similar to the equity market’s response to the recently announced tariffs, the bond market responded with a widening of credit spreads. These spreads represent the difference in yield between a U.S. Treasury bond and other bonds of the same maturity but different credit quality.
At the end of May, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 164% above its long-term trend, up from 145% in April. This is the largest variance in three months.
As discussions about reshoring continue to dominate economic policy debates, VettaFi hosted a timely webcast with Dr. Daniela Rus, director of MIT’s Computer Science and AI Lab (CSAIL).
ETF
The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
Cathie Wood Says Trump Era Is Reviving Corporate Risk Appetite
Corporate America is regaining its appetite for risk as expectations build around Donald Trump’s push for deregulation and tax cuts, according to ARK Investment Management founder Cathie Wood.
Vanguard Seeks SEC Approval to Expand Tax-Busting Fund Design
Vanguard Group Inc., the investment giant famous for low-cost index funds, is seeking regulatory approval to expand its signature tax-saving fund structure — as anticipation grows that the Securities and Exchange Commission under Paul Atkins will soon embrace the design en masse.
Options Signal EM Firms’ Outperformance Could Fade: Taking Stock
For US traders, developing-country stocks have been a surprising source of returns as Donald Trump’s trade war roiled the S&P 500 Index.
Gold has Glittered Amidst Storming Markets
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
The Compute Capital Supercycle: AI’s Silent Infrastructure Revolution
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
An Active Option to Ponder as Bonds Look More Compelling
With tariff news providing constant equity market fluctuations, the case for bonds becomes more compelling. The added uncertainty also punctuates the need for an active management strategy, which one particular Vanguard ETF offers.
Should Investors Consider Options-Based Strategies to Help Manage Portfolio Risk?
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
Cautious Optimism: Shift Exposure, Stay Balanced
Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Cooler Than Expected in May
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
Deficit Pressures Treasuries… But No Crisis: US Treasury Market Is ‘Too Big to Fail’
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Vanguard Debuts New Active Multi-Sector Bond ETF
Today, Vanguard released its newest bond fund, the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).
Gundlach: Illiquid Assets Don’t Belong in Liquid Vehicles
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises to 2.4% in May, Lower Than Expected
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
US Stocks Waffle as Traders Weigh US-China Trade Progress
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
A Focus on Fundamentals
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
3 Different Gold ETF Strategies for the Second Half
Advisors looking to add or enhance existing gold exposures in their portfolio have a range of strategies to consider within the ETF vehicle.
What's the 10-Year Outlook for Major Asset Classes?
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
The Infrastructure That Lets the Future Happen
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
Intersection of Robotics & AI: Crucial Theme for Tech Sector
Robotics was one of the earliest examples of a disruptive technology. It enjoyed some time in the investment community limelight. But it was rapidly usurped by other innovative technologies, including AI.
Notes from the Desk: MBS Opportunities Amid Quiet Housing Market
The US housing market remains in a state of inertia. Despite the arrival of the spring selling season, both new and existing home sales continue to underwhelm.
Baby Boomer Employment Through the Decades: May 2025
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Gas Prices Drop for Third Straight Week
Gas prices dropped for a third straight week this week. As of June 9th, the price of regular gas was down 2 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
What's Holding Back Small Caps?
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Wary Wall Street Positioning Leaves Room for S&P 500 to Rally
Analysts at firms including Barclays Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see further upside for US stocks, in part because they expect institutional investors to abandon their cautious stance and ramp up exposure to equities.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Recovered Slightly in May
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
Meet the “Hermès of Gold” the Chinese Can’t Get Enough Of
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
Implementation Matters. Is Your OCIO Built to Execute?
Here’s the blunt truth: Many great investment strategies fail because of poor implementation. Robust capabilities in trading, transition management, overlays and currencies are critical to executing a strategy.
Credit Investors Embrace Portfolio Trades as ETF Grip Eases
Investors looking to move big blocks of corporate bonds have long relied on exchange-traded funds listed on stock exchanges to jump in and out of positions. But now, they’re increasingly trading directly in the debt market.
Wall Street Has a Hot Way to Sell Private Assets to the Masses
The push to put private assets in the hands of individual investors is breathing new life into a relatively quiet corner of the asset management industry: interval funds.
Gold ETF Momentum Eased in May With Modest Outflows
For the first time in five months, gold-backed ETFs globally reported modest outflows in May as investors took profits.
Momentum ETFs Regaining Mojo
Markets may be fretting over Federal Reserve policy and economic soft landings, but a handful of momentum ETFs have quietly been stealing the show. Across the array of factor funds, momentum has performed best this year.
Stocks Bloom In May
After falling 0.7% in April, the S&P 500 gained 6.3% last month, marking the index’s best May return since 1990 and its best monthly return since November 2023 (see the chart).
World Markets Watchlist: June 9, 2025
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 9, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.23%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 17.73% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.93%.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: May 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: May 2025
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.2% of Workers in May 2025
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in May.
US Stocks Fluctuate as US-China Trade Talks Kick Off in London
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Vanguard Set to Challenge BlackRock’s Grip on Ex-China ETF Trade
Vanguard Group Inc. is launching a low-cost fund focused on emerging-market stocks while explicitly avoiding China, muscling into a trade long dominated by BlackRock Inc.
Active ETFs Gain Further Momentum in 2025
Increasing investor preference for actively managed strategies continues in this year’s tumultuous environment. With active ETFs taking increasing market share, advisors and investors have ever-expanding choices when looking to augment existing passive exposures.
Gold 2025 Midyear Outlook: A High(er) for Long(er) Gold Price Regime
Rebounding demand from ETF investors and resilient buying from central banks and Asia retail have propelled gold prices to fresh records north of US$3,000/oz. Find out why we believe there is more room to run.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Labor Market in Focus
Last week, the labor market took center stage, presenting a nuanced picture of continued resilience alongside subtle signs of softening.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Back Above 6000
The S&P 500 closed above 6000 for the first time since mid-February. The index posted its second consecutive weekly gain, finishing up 1.5% from the previous Friday.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 6, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 6, 2025 at 4.51%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.04% and the 30-year note ended at 4.97%.
A Roundup of the Most Innovative ETFs Launched in May
The ETF market saw a noticeable slowdown of new products launched in May; however, innovation continued to be a driving force.
Wall Street Has a Hot Way to Sell Private Assets to the Masses
The push to put private assets in the hands of individual investors is breathing new life into a relatively quiet corner of the asset management industry: interval funds.
Let Your Winners Run: Why SMID-Cap Investing May Be the All-Star Strategy Your Portfolio Needs
Abstract SMID-cap investing offers stronger performance and lower volatility than small-caps alone. By using the Russell 2500 index, investors can retain top performers longer, reduce turnover, and enhance portfolio resilience and flexibility.
$50 Trillion Opportunity: USA Robotics & AI ‘Manhattan Project’
For four decades, the USA has relied on debt-financed consumption and a service-heavy economy to mask an unsustainable model.
Treasuries Still an Option as Economic Uncertainty Persists
Given the large pool of options available to fixed income investors in the bond market, the ideal option given the current economic uncertainty is still Treasuries. With that, Vanguard has three options worthy of consideration for any portfolio.
SEC’s Crypto Confusion Deepens as Next-Gen ETFs Test Boundaries
A new line of yield-chasing crypto funds is forcing the Securities and Exchange Commission to confront unresolved gaps in its regulatory framework, just as the Trump administration eases oversight of digital assets.
Active EM ETF Offers Access to a Time-Tested Strategy
Since 2019 and the establishment of the ETF Rule, traditional active managers, armed with decades of expertise, have flocked to ETFs.
Trade Deficit Shrinks to Smallest Level Since September 2023
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since September 2023 as exports increased and imports declined. In April, the trade deficit fell 55.5% to -$61.6B. This marks the largest monthly decline since 1992.
2 Options to Take Advantage of a Bond Rally
Early signs of diminishing economic activity and inflation could be a harbinger for bond prices to rise. If so, consider taking advantage of a potential bond rally with a pair of ETFs from Vanguard.
Markets are Back Near All-Time Highs, but Confidence Isn’t
Stocks rallied in May 2025 as trade tensions eased, but investor confidence remains fragile.
Navigating a Sea of Investment-Grade Credit
In our view, using quantitative methods in a transparent, repeatable way to extract alpha through diversified factor tilts offers a compelling alternative in this new IG environment.
Trump-Tied ‘Truth Social Bitcoin ETF’ Edges Closer to Launch
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. appears to be one step closer to launching an exchange-traded fund tied to Bitcoin, joining the crowded field of crypto-investment offerings for the retail masses.
Passive Aggressive: The Increasing Risks of Passive Dominance
Passive capitalization-weighted index funds now surpass active management in aggregate investor allocations.
Regarding Value ETFs, Purity Matters
Value stocks and related ETFs have been decent performers of late. They’ve been generating buzz for a group of equities that long trailed growth stocks. Enthusiasm for value could earnestly be reborn. If so, investors should take that as a reminder to be judicious regarding evaluating value ETFs.
Why Some ETF Investors May Like Closed-End Funds
Closed-end funds can offer stable income streams, but also have some benefits over ETFs when it comes to fund structure.
Political Noise Continued to Dominate Headlines in May
On the trade front, investor uncertainty eased for a short time as President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs seemed to lose traction. Several key developments contributed, including a 90-day tariff pause with China, the signing of a US-UK trade agreement and progress on negotiations with other partners, including Europe.
Vehicle Sales: May 2025
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 36.0% from that peak.
ISM Services PMI Contracts for First Time Since June 2024
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 49.9—below the forecast of 52.0. This marks the first contraction for the index since June 2024.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Strengthens in May
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 53.7, above the 52.3 forecast. The reading marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion and was a noticeable pickup from April's 17-month low.
The U.S. Dollar is at a Critical Inflection Point
The U.S. Dollar Index is at a critical inflection point, and how it behaves from here will have a major impact on the direction of gold, silver, and commodities.
The Mag 7 Becomes the Mid 7
Market leadership is shifting and the once-dominant Magnificent 7 may no longer be so magnificent. Our latest report reveals why broader opportunities are emerging across sectors and regions, with quality, value, and growth converging in unexpected places.
Downgraded U.S. Credit Opens Opportunities in MBS
Treasuries have been the default go-to safe haven bonds during times of heavy market volatility. But with Moody’s recent downgrade, an opportunity for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) exists.
Real Estate a Top Sector to Watch in 2025
Mortgage rates last week climbed to their highest levels since the beginning of the year on elevated economic risks. With markets still hopeful of at least one interest rate cut in the second half, the real estate sector stands poised to bounce back in a lower rate environment.
Fidelity’s Edge and the Active ETF Boom
On this week’s episode of ETF Prime, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discusses the rise of active ETFs and anticipated ETF share class structure. Later, Fidelity’s Eric Granat and Christine Thorpe spotlight the Fidelity Hedged Equity ETF (FHEQ) and the Fidelity Total Bond ETF (FBND).
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of May 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2025 close.
Buying Stocks Is Always Hard
Buying stocks is always hard. Particularly during corrections. Or, near market peaks. Or, when stocks are falling. And when they are rising. Oh, buying stocks is also tricky when valuations are high. And when they are low. You get the point.
Secular Bull and Bear Market Trends: May 2025
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
The Total Return Roller Coaster: May 2025
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?
Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Rally Has Traders Primed to Ramp Back Up
Nvidia Corp. shares have staged a $1 trillion rebound in two months — and investors are betting the rally has further to go as fears about the chipmaker give way to optimism.
Turning Client Anxiety Into Opportunity During Volatile Markets
Our role isn’t just to manage assets; it’s to help clients stay grounded. We remind clients that investing is a long-term journey, and short-term volatility doesn’t have to knock them off course.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: May 2025
With the Q1 GDP second estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 207.8%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
Why the S&P 500 Is Cruising Through Policy Upheaval
f you are wondering why the S&P 500 Index has held up so well in the past two months, look no further than the technology and communications sectors, which collectively account for nearly half of the index by weighting.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - May 2025
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
The Unbearable Burden of Waiting and Seeing
As investors grapple with nagging macro uncertainty, market volatility’s likely to continue. But we also see reasons for optimism — and new opportunities.
The U.S. is the Undisputed Bitcoin Superpower of the World
Last summer, if you recall, then-candidate Donald Trump made headlines as the first former U.S. president to speak at a Bitcoin conference. He pledged to lower the regulatory hurdles of the Biden administration, to kill Operation Choke Point 2.0, and to position the U.S. as the global leader in Bitcoin.
Floating Rate Notes Are Appealing Fixed Income Ideas
Treasury floating rate notes and ETFs like the WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR) are often seen as beneficial tools to fixed income investors when yields on U.S. government debt are rising.
Why the Recession Call Matters for Stocks
This past week, news flow around policy came in hot and heavy, with President Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful’ tax cut bill passing the House of Representatives, and Trump threatening 50% tariffs on the European Union (EU).
Fidelity Enhanced International ETF (FENI)
VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Fidelity Enhanced International ETF (FENI) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: May 2025
Based on the May S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 38.7 is 155% above its arithmetic mean, 178% above its geometric mean, and is in the 99th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: May 2025
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.89, up from 1.74 in April.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Cools While Sentiment Cautiously Climbs
Last week's economic data presented a mixed but generally more positive outlook. Inflation continued its downward trend in April.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: May 2025
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 26.4 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 35.0.
Credit Markets React to Tariffs
Similar to the equity market’s response to the recently announced tariffs, the bond market responded with a widening of credit spreads. These spreads represent the difference in yield between a U.S. Treasury bond and other bonds of the same maturity but different credit quality.
Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 164% Above Trend in May
At the end of May, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 164% above its long-term trend, up from 145% in April. This is the largest variance in three months.
AI, Robotics & the Future of U.S. Manufacturing
As discussions about reshoring continue to dominate economic policy debates, VettaFi hosted a timely webcast with Dr. Daniela Rus, director of MIT’s Computer Science and AI Lab (CSAIL).