Join the experts at Sterling Capital for an educational webcast covering a unique corner of the fixed income market.
Valid until the market close on September 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Over seven years ago, I wrote a piece using the 1960s TV sitcom Gilligan's Island to provide a simple example of why productivity is the most important driver of economic growth. In this article, I present the next episode of Gilligan’s Island, describing what happens after the benefits of innovation stop driving economic growth.
Most of us keep a chunk of cash on hand — for rent, groceries, the occasional emergency, or simply because we haven’t gotten around to investing it yet. In the finance industry, this is called your “float.” We think the single best thing most people can do with it is own a Treasury Bill ETF — and yet almost nobody does.
The TDF industry is an oligopoly where four firms dominate more than 75% of the $5 trillion market. Competitors that are desperate for market share have turned to “managed” QDIA accounts — a gimmick masquerading as personalization.
The appeal of democratic socialism is real because the pain it speaks to is real. I won’t pretend otherwise. But intentions are not outcomes, and history has handed us the outcomes in ink, from Caracas to the old Soviet bloc to the Nordic countries that quietly kept their capitalism. The promise is a beautiful cake. The aftertaste is shortages, capital flight, inflation, and a new elite standing where the old one used to be.
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%. The economy remains resilient and the consumer is strong.
For the first time in his three months on the job, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said the right things. In his keynote speech Friday at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual central banking event in Jackson Hole, Warsh acknowledged that inflation was elevated and widespread, and had been been so for “far too long.”
Bond investors at firms including ABN AMRO Investment Solutions and Brandywine Global Investment Management are voicing skepticism about mounting speculation that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is poised to raise interest rates.
Advisors did not slow down on exchange-traded funds in the second quarter. They added more of them, and pointed the money somewhere new, according to AdvizorPro’s Q2 2026 RIA ETF Trends report.
Treasury’s pivot toward long-bond buybacks gives duration buyers their first clear green light in months — and the November midterms may add a second leg.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and widely known as “Mr. Valuation,” examines 15 dividend-paying companies selected for their potential to generate rapidly growing income. These are not simply the fastest dividend growers in the market. Each company was also chosen for its financial strength, operating history, and current valuation.
The term “backfire” originally referred to the intentional burning of underbrush when there is a wildfire on the horizon, to keep a bad situation from turning worse. Over time, however, backfire has come to mean an action that makes a bad situation worse.
We think it’s time for investors to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core (plus) bond portfolios. Valuations have become more attractive across fixed income, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels. We share our views on when and why.
The yield on the 10-year note finished August 28, 2026 at 4.73% while the 2-year note ended at 4.34%.
This week, our Portfolio Manager Olga Bezrokov sees tentative signs of improvement emerging in Europe, although she cautions that the recovery remains uneven across countries and sectors.
Convertible bond investors chasing exposure to the artificial intelligence boom are giving up some of the protection they would normally demand, pushing the market toward levels of risk-taking last seen during the pandemic.
A chorus of investors is urging Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to express a strong determination to deal with high inflation to boost the long end of the Treasury market.
For an asset often designated as a store of value, gold volatility has been especially apparent this year. After starting off the year with a high-paced record-setting run that lifted the metal to nearly $5,600 an ounce, including a 13% rally in January alone, momentum quickly faded as tensions with Iran ratcheted higher.
Investors are used to a swirling mass of scary headlines and geopolitical and monetary risk. Yen carry trade and yield concerns, however, may have some feeling of trepidation. Despite those risks, equities continue to appeal.
Funding a college education can be one of the biggest financial goals for a family, and it often requires a comprehensive approach.
Markets are largely reducing expectations for a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, and we agree. July’s weak jobs report, the underwhelming retail sales report, and continued softening of the monthly inflation figures give the Fed room to stay patient in the coming months.
Investors who focus only on tomorrow’s gold price may miss the larger purpose of owning precious metals. Gold and silver are not merely vehicles for chasing a rally. They are tools for preserving purchasing power during periods of fiscal and monetary instability.
Kevin Warsh’s inauspicious start as chairman of the Federal Reserve has guaranteed that his speech on Friday at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole conference will command rapt attention. He might wish it were otherwise: Investors demanding clear answers to their many questions are almost certain to come away disappointed.
High indebtedness has prompted a call for France to cancel part of its public liabilities. Ideas spread, so expect similarly unorthodox demands elsewhere as governments grapple with high debt, while political disruptors air increasingly unconventional policies. All those roads, however, lead to more inflation and the debauchment of financial assets.
On Wednesday, August 26, 2026, Northern Trust Asset Management expanded its suite of distributing ladder ETFs with the launch of eight new funds. The newly launched ETFs offer additional target maturity options for Northern Trust’s existing strategies.
Investors are no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin as hedges against fiscal anxiety. They’re buying both.
Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department surprised the bond market by announcing that it would at least double selected long-end bond buybacks.
The bond market rarely dominates the financial headlines. But with a light economic data release schedule and earnings season largely in the rearview mirror, the bond market took center stage last week.
Trade talks between Canada and the U.S. fell apart on Saturday, resulting in the Section 338 tariffs on a subset of Canadian goods taking effect. In response, Canada has pledged to implement
U.S. labor force participation is declining due to an aging population, slowing immigration, and other factors. This could impact economic growth and earnings moving forward.
Earnings have built a strong foundation. As we wrote earlier this month, earnings have provided a strong foundation for stocks this year. With second quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 on track to exceed 30% (excluding private investment mark-ups) and analysts continuing to raise estimates, it's safe to say this season strengthened the fundamental case for equities.
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) announced an acquisition of First Eagle Investments Wednesday, a deal that will create a combined asset manager with $571 billion in client assets, the companies said.
The most durable assumption in global investing is also the most outdated: that the United States is fundamentally a consumption story and China is fundamentally a capital-expenditure story.
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.3% and core CPI at 2.5%.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.3% year-over-year in July. This marks no change from June's reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.2%.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.35% in July and was up 3.31% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.19% month-over-month and down -0.38% year-over-year.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® unexpectedly inched lower in August, falling 0.8 points to 89.4. The index was below the forecast of 90.3.
The irony is that the advisors who most need to delegate are the ones who find it hardest. You need to stop being the hero of every story. There are four reasons why, and every one of them is a story you tell yourself.
European equities have long been written off as the ultimate value trap — a sleepy, slow-growth market living in the shadow of Wall Street’s tech-fueled mega-rally. But a massive shift in market dynamics is unfolding across the Atlantic.
When a typical business finds its supply chain costs have risen, it will absorb the increase to keep its customers happy. Nvidia isn’t a typical business. It enjoys gross profit margins of 75% and commands between 70% and 90% of the global market for artificial-intelligence chips.
Recent Kitces’ research found no meaningful difference in wellness between advisors who worked in a traditional office versus at home or elsewhere. What did matter was alignment: Advisors thrived when they had the flexibility to work in an environment that matched their personal preferences.
Equity markets stumbled this week despite an economic backdrop that continues to show signs of broadening. While concerns about consumer strain are mounting, those worries have so far been offset by ongoing strength in business investment, particularly spending tied to artificial intelligence (AI).
Markets continue to hold up remarkably well as we move through the traditionally difficult second half of August, but the risks beneath the surface have shifted. Commodity prices are rising, money growth remains stronger than I would like, and long-term interest rates are again testing important levels.
It’s been a busy year in the game of ETF landgrab. And a colorful one, too. From exciting M&A deals to some splashy building-from-scratch newcomers, we are seeing a little bit of everything as asset managers look to build scale and capture the impressive growth momentum of the ETF market.
James Carville, Bill Clinton’s chief political advisor, once quipped that if he could be reincarnated he wanted to come back as the bond market because “You can intimidate everybody.”
Interest rates are moving higher, and the forces behind the move appear to be persistent inflation and an economy that continues to grow more strongly than many anticipated. Economic growth is generally advantageous, and moderate inflation is a normal feature of a healthy economy.
As the credit cycle ages, defaults are likely to remain front and center. But for investors evaluating private credit alongside public markets, measuring defaults is not as straightforward as it may seem.
Macro strategists and global portfolio managers have their hands full on this final week of August. As we said recently, this is no time to mail it in before Labor Day in the U.S. And for equity traders and bottom-up analysts, NVIDIA (NVDA) writes the storyline in the sessions ahead. The world's most valuable company reports Q2 results after the bell on Wednesday.
This may come as something of a surprise since the financial press has not written or said much about how well this important—and opportunity-rich—subset of small-cap has performed over the last several months.
The WealthTech market has a serious AI-washing problem. The term borrows directly from a parallel wealth management executives already understand. Just as greenwashing described investment managers who marketed ESG commitments they could not substantiate, AI washing describes technology vendors who relabel rules-based automation as artificial intelligence.
Kevin Warsh’s first major speech as chairman of the Federal Reserve has become an unexpected trial of his slimmed-down communications style.
US stocks advanced on Tuesday as technology names rallied and investors continued to prepare for Nvidia Corp. earnings and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Treasuries gained as a decline in crude oil eased inflation concerns and the pressure on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has been moving to halt a months-long selloff that pushed the longest-dated yields to the highest in almost two decades.
Yields on 30-year US bonds broke 5% last week, a level not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis. The Treasury Department bought bonds in an attempt to lower yields. It worked — for a day, then bond yields went back up. Meanwhile, in a not-exactly-unrelated development, the US national debt just passed $40 trillion.
In the first part of this series, I promised that the next enemy we would face is the one you cannot fire, mute, or unfollow, because it is “You.” You can learn every valuation metric ever invented, memorize the two questions that decide everything, and still hand most of your returns back to the market for one simple reason.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Without a doubt, the number-one story in the financial markets of late has been the run-up in longer-dated Treasury (UST) yields. Indeed, headlines in both traditional and social media have centered on the fact that bond yields are now at levels not seen in nearly 20 years, or the time period right before the Financial Crisis hit in 2007.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has touched roughly 5.3% in the past week, a level not seen in nearly two decades. Global counterparts in Europe, the U.K., and Japan have climbed to similar heights.
For the past five weeks, markets have been focused on a steady stream of corporate earnings, supported by upbeat management commentary and another quarter of strong results. But with second quarter 2026 earnings season nearing its end, investors' attention is shifting back to the macro backdrop.
Something strange has been happening in America lately. The Wall Street Journal says this is the summer when the U.S. became “a nation of Luddites.” The Economist calls it “the Summer of Ludd.”
U.S.-listed ETFs pulled in a record $193.42 billion in July, pushing year-to-date net inflows to $1.23 trillion. That total is the strongest seven-month haul on record, according to ETFGI’s July 2026 U.S. ETF industry report.
Join the experts at SoFi for a product due diligence session covering the evolving income landscape and how options strategies can help investors pursue monthly income in different ways.
When portfolios become standardized, investor experience becomes standardized right along with them, even though almost nothing else about those investors is standard. Their goals, tax exposure, risk tolerances, and individual spending needs are too individualized to be captured by many models that purport to be customized.
While it is useful to analyze holdings by asset class, a portfolio-wide view can provide additional insights. Typically, the bond sleeve and the equity sleeve are seen as entirely separate. However, they usually hold unnoticed concentrations in different companies.
US stocks traded lower before the bell on Monday as investors prepared for a busy week of economic data and important earnings from Nvidia Corp.
The question facing advisors is no longer whether clients can hold digital assets, because many already do. It is whether the firm can explain, in writing, how each position was sized, why a particular product was chosen, and where that decision is recorded. Most firms cannot, and that gap is the exposure.
The Treasury Department could opt to draw down some of its cash pile to fund expanded buybacks of higher-yielding, older securities, CNBC reported Monday, citing two senior Treasury officials.
The debt problem is real. It just isn’t a bomb. As we’ve written before, the debt and deficit problem isn’t what you think. It’s a tax on future growth, collected slowly, and normal interest rates are simply the price of money doing its job, not the crisis the headlines keep selling.
Most of us try to be mindful not to put all our eggs in one basket. But the now-familiar concern that most portfolios are quite concentrated in a relatively small group of large US tech companies means that investors may still be doing just that.
Today, the backdrop for real assets has reset. Growth is returning, but in different parts of the market than many investors remember. While in the post-pandemic period performance was defined by scale, now it is the result of adaptability and having access to a broad array of organization sizes and business plans.
The minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, released this week, revealed a committee that remained broadly hawkish. Policymakers continued to characterize inflation as elevated and emphasized that upside inflation risks persist.
No doubt, AI can be an unnerving tool. But it isn’t magic, malevolent, or secretly sentient. With some reasonable rules in place, policymakers should be able to keep the bots in line, and unleash the benefits for everyone else.
To some, the debate over inflation targeting is largely an academic exercise. But its outcome will have direct consequences for the paths of global interest rates and global markets. Some background on how we arrived at this juncture, and where we might go from here, follows.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale examines 20 fast-growing businesses that appear reasonably or attractively valued, focusing on the GARP principle—Growth at a Reasonable Price. The central message is that investors shouldn’t simply look for great companies; they should look for great businesses at sensible valuations.
In the early weeks of Kevin Warsh’s start as chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, there has been renewed focus on how “underlying” inflation should be measured to guide decisions on interest rates.
On the back of the White House’s cryptocurrency confab, which brought together policymakers and leaders of the digital asset community, Bitcoin notched a double-digit gain over August 19-20 — a rally that pumped new life into the largest digital currency.
For 11 of the 12 years following the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. stocks beat international markets. But that trend has flipped: Over the past four years, international equities have taken the lead.
The truth about the runaway costs of healthcare turns out to be a little more complex than any single source we've named. Hospitals, insurers, private equity, administrators, pharmaceutical companies… pull the thread on any one and we land in the same overextended, bloated, extractive system.
U.S. debt may not be at an immediate breaking point, but persistent deficits, higher rates, and rising interest costs are narrowing fiscal space and market tolerance.
GMO’s liquid alternatives are hedge fund strategies (e.g., equity long-short, global macro, event-driven) managed with an emphasis on risk control and liquidity. The GMO Alternative Allocation Strategy (“ALTA”) is a liquid alternative solution combining several underlying strategies; ALTA is available in a mutual fund with daily liquidity.
On August 19, the US Treasury announced that it will at least double the size of its long-term bond buybacks, from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, between September 9 and the November Quarterly Refunding. The announcement followed a rise in the 30-year Treasury yield to roughly 5.3% and is drawing attention to how the Treasury may respond if pressure at the long end persists.
Outdoor sports and exercise are more difficult at the height of summer. Runners slow their paces, and teams start their practices early to beat the heat. Competitors must marshal their energy carefully to perform at their best.
Gold climbed to the highest in three months as the US Treasury’s bold intervention to try to stem a damaging increase in borrowing costs revived investor fears about its fiscal burden.
Market exuberance returned to cryptocurrencies when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Wednesday the department would at least double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, triggering an upswing that forced traders to liquidate billions in short positions.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists are among the most optimistic about European stocks on the back of a robust corporate earnings outlook, a Bloomberg survey shows.
A brisk rally in industrial stocks this year has defied higher oil prices, rising bond yields and restrictive trade policies, as investors bet on big gains from the artificial intelligence boom. Now signs are emerging the optimism may have gone too far.
US stocks rose in early trading Friday, putting the Nasdaq 100 on track to end a five-day losing streak as bond yields stabilize and Bitcoin soars.
Leading asset managers T. Rowe Price announced the acquisition of $19 billion F/m Investments in a press release Thursday afternoon. The deal brings F/m’s suite of leading fixed income strategies and ETFs into T. Rowe Price’s fund stable, reinforcing those areas in the latter’s list.
For years, Russell index reconstitutions have been treated as a routine maintenance event. Thousands of stocks are ranked, memberships are adjusted, and markets move on
Fixed Income
Finding Income: A Multi-Strategy Approach
Join the experts at Sterling Capital for an educational webcast covering a unique corner of the fixed income market.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: August 2026
Valid until the market close on September 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Gilligan’s Island and the Limit of Economic Innovation
Over seven years ago, I wrote a piece using the 1960s TV sitcom Gilligan's Island to provide a simple example of why productivity is the most important driver of economic growth. In this article, I present the next episode of Gilligan’s Island, describing what happens after the benefits of innovation stop driving economic growth.
Keeping Your Float Afloat: A Guide to Earning What You Deserve on Your Cash
Most of us keep a chunk of cash on hand — for rent, groceries, the occasional emergency, or simply because we haven’t gotten around to investing it yet. In the finance industry, this is called your “float.” We think the single best thing most people can do with it is own a Treasury Bill ETF — and yet almost nobody does.
The QDIA Illusion: Why Your "Managed" Account Isn't Managed
The TDF industry is an oligopoly where four firms dominate more than 75% of the $5 trillion market. Competitors that are desperate for market share have turned to “managed” QDIA accounts — a gimmick masquerading as personalization.
Democratic Socialism: A Beautiful Cake With A Bitter Aftertaste
The appeal of democratic socialism is real because the pain it speaks to is real. I won’t pretend otherwise. But intentions are not outcomes, and history has handed us the outcomes in ink, from Caracas to the old Soviet bloc to the Nordic countries that quietly kept their capitalism. The promise is a beautiful cake. The aftertaste is shortages, capital flight, inflation, and a new elite standing where the old one used to be.
From the US Market Desk: Now…We Wait…
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%. The economy remains resilient and the consumer is strong.
Kevin Warsh Said the Right Things. Now What?
For the first time in his three months on the job, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said the right things. In his keynote speech Friday at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual central banking event in Jackson Hole, Warsh acknowledged that inflation was elevated and widespread, and had been been so for “far too long.”
Bond Investors Wary After Warsh Speech Fuels Rate-Hike Bets
Bond investors at firms including ABN AMRO Investment Solutions and Brandywine Global Investment Management are voicing skepticism about mounting speculation that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is poised to raise interest rates.
How Advisors Rebuilt Their ETF Lineups in Q2 2026
Advisors did not slow down on exchange-traded funds in the second quarter. They added more of them, and pointed the money somewhere new, according to AdvizorPro’s Q2 2026 RIA ETF Trends report.
Getting Paid to Extend: The Case for Muni Duration
Treasury’s pivot toward long-bond buybacks gives duration buyers their first clear green light in months — and the November midterms may add a second leg.
Get a Raise Every Year With These 15 Dividend Growth Stocks
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and widely known as “Mr. Valuation,” examines 15 dividend-paying companies selected for their potential to generate rapidly growing income. These are not simply the fastest dividend growers in the market. Each company was also chosen for its financial strength, operating history, and current valuation.
The Treasury Tries to Cap Interest Rates
The term “backfire” originally referred to the intentional burning of underbrush when there is a wildfire on the horizon, to keep a bad situation from turning worse. Over time, however, backfire has come to mean an action that makes a bad situation worse.
Core Bond (Plus): What’s Under the Hood and When to Consider It
We think it’s time for investors to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core (plus) bond portfolios. Valuations have become more attractive across fixed income, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels. We share our views on when and why.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 28, 2026
The yield on the 10-year note finished August 28, 2026 at 4.73% while the 2-year note ended at 4.34%.
More Signs of Growth Across AI and Europe
This week, our Portfolio Manager Olga Bezrokov sees tentative signs of improvement emerging in Europe, although she cautions that the recovery remains uneven across countries and sectors.
Investor Frenzy for AI Strips Safeguards From Convertible Bonds
Convertible bond investors chasing exposure to the artificial intelligence boom are giving up some of the protection they would normally demand, pushing the market toward levels of risk-taking last seen during the pandemic.
JPMorgan and Apollo Urge Inflation Focus for Warsh’s Big Speech
A chorus of investors is urging Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to express a strong determination to deal with high inflation to boost the long end of the Treasury market.
Gold Regains Its Luster
For an asset often designated as a store of value, gold volatility has been especially apparent this year. After starting off the year with a high-paced record-setting run that lifted the metal to nearly $5,600 an ounce, including a 13% rally in January alone, momentum quickly faded as tensions with Iran ratcheted higher.
Why It’s Time to Add Equities Exposure in Active ETFs
Investors are used to a swirling mass of scary headlines and geopolitical and monetary risk. Yen carry trade and yield concerns, however, may have some feeling of trepidation. Despite those risks, equities continue to appeal.
High School Action Plan Part 1: Freshman and Sophomore Years
Funding a college education can be one of the biggest financial goals for a family, and it often requires a comprehensive approach.
Today’s Interest Rates: Not the New Normal, Just Normal
Markets are largely reducing expectations for a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, and we agree. July’s weak jobs report, the underwhelming retail sales report, and continued softening of the monthly inflation figures give the Fed room to stay patient in the coming months.
Gold and Silver Surge as the Debasement Trade Returns
Investors who focus only on tomorrow’s gold price may miss the larger purpose of owning precious metals. Gold and silver are not merely vehicles for chasing a rally. They are tools for preserving purchasing power during periods of fiscal and monetary instability.
Warsh Owes Investors a Jackson Hole Reset
Kevin Warsh’s inauspicious start as chairman of the Federal Reserve has guaranteed that his speech on Friday at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole conference will command rapt attention. He might wish it were otherwise: Investors demanding clear answers to their many questions are almost certain to come away disappointed.
The ‘Burn the Bonds’ Stage of the Debt Cycle Is Here
High indebtedness has prompted a call for France to cancel part of its public liabilities. Ideas spread, so expect similarly unorthodox demands elsewhere as governments grapple with high debt, while political disruptors air increasingly unconventional policies. All those roads, however, lead to more inflation and the debauchment of financial assets.
Northern Trust Launches New Set of Distributing Ladder ETFs
On Wednesday, August 26, 2026, Northern Trust Asset Management expanded its suite of distributing ladder ETFs with the launch of eight new funds. The newly launched ETFs offer additional target maturity options for Northern Trust’s existing strategies.
Bitcoin and Gold Funds Draw $7 Billion Amid Scarcity Trade
Investors are no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin as hedges against fiscal anxiety. They’re buying both.
Buybacks, Market Functioning, and Treasury Predictability
Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department surprised the bond market by announcing that it would at least double selected long-end bond buybacks.
Higher Oil Prices and Inflation Concerns Weigh on Both Bonds and Stocks
The bond market rarely dominates the financial headlines. But with a light economic data release schedule and earnings season largely in the rearview mirror, the bond market took center stage last week.
What the New Section 338 Tariffs Mean for the U.S. and Canada
Trade talks between Canada and the U.S. fell apart on Saturday, resulting in the Section 338 tariffs on a subset of Canadian goods taking effect. In response, Canada has pledged to implement
America Has a Labor Force Participation Problem
U.S. labor force participation is declining due to an aging population, slowing immigration, and other factors. This could impact economic growth and earnings moving forward.
Stock Market Tug of War: Earnings vs. Rates
Earnings have built a strong foundation. As we wrote earlier this month, earnings have provided a strong foundation for stocks this year. With second quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 on track to exceed 30% (excluding private investment mark-ups) and analysts continuing to raise estimates, it's safe to say this season strengthened the fundamental case for equities.
Victory Capital’s $571 Billion Acquisition Creates Asset Giant
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) announced an acquisition of First Eagle Investments Wednesday, a deal that will create a combined asset manager with $571 billion in client assets, the companies said.
The Great Inversion: Investment Opportunities Amid a New Paradigm
The most durable assumption in global investing is also the most outdated: that the United States is fundamentally a consumption story and China is fundamentally a capital-expenditure story.
Two Measures of Inflation: July 2026
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.3% and core CPI at 2.5%.
Core PCE Inflation at 3.3% in July, Unchanged from June
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.3% year-over-year in July. This marks no change from June's reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.2%.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.35% in July and was up 3.31% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.19% month-over-month and down -0.38% year-over-year.
Consumer Confidence Falls Slightly in August
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® unexpectedly inched lower in August, falling 0.8 points to 89.4. The index was below the forecast of 90.3.
Delegate Outcomes, Not Tasks
The irony is that the advisors who most need to delegate are the ones who find it hardest. You need to stop being the hero of every story. There are four reasons why, and every one of them is a story you tell yourself.
European ETFs: Back in the Game
European equities have long been written off as the ultimate value trap — a sleepy, slow-growth market living in the shadow of Wall Street’s tech-fueled mega-rally. But a massive shift in market dynamics is unfolding across the Atlantic.
Nvidia Is Jolting Silicon Valley to Think Like China
When a typical business finds its supply chain costs have risen, it will absorb the increase to keep its customers happy. Nvidia isn’t a typical business. It enjoys gross profit margins of 75% and commands between 70% and 90% of the global market for artificial-intelligence chips.
Steps to Achieving Wellness as a Financial Advisor
Recent Kitces’ research found no meaningful difference in wellness between advisors who worked in a traditional office versus at home or elsewhere. What did matter was alignment: Advisors thrived when they had the flexibility to work in an environment that matched their personal preferences.
Markets Weigh Business Strength Against Consumer Weakness
Equity markets stumbled this week despite an economic backdrop that continues to show signs of broadening. While concerns about consumer strain are mounting, those worries have so far been offset by ongoing strength in business investment, particularly spending tied to artificial intelligence (AI).
Markets Hold Firm as Inflation Risks Build
Markets continue to hold up remarkably well as we move through the traditionally difficult second half of August, but the risks beneath the surface have shifted. Commodity prices are rising, money growth remains stronger than I would like, and long-term interest rates are again testing important levels.
The ETF Landgrab Is On: Buy or Build?
It’s been a busy year in the game of ETF landgrab. And a colorful one, too. From exciting M&A deals to some splashy building-from-scratch newcomers, we are seeing a little bit of everything as asset managers look to build scale and capture the impressive growth momentum of the ETF market.
The Blame Game About Rising Yields
James Carville, Bill Clinton’s chief political advisor, once quipped that if he could be reincarnated he wanted to come back as the bond market because “You can intimidate everybody.”
Tug-of-War: Who is Setting Interest Rates?
Interest rates are moving higher, and the forces behind the move appear to be persistent inflation and an economy that continues to grow more strongly than many anticipated. Economic growth is generally advantageous, and moderate inflation is a normal feature of a healthy economy.
Narrowing the Visibility Gap in Defaults
As the credit cycle ages, defaults are likely to remain front and center. But for investors evaluating private credit alongside public markets, measuring defaults is not as straightforward as it may seem.
NVIDIA Q2 Earnings & Outlook Matter More This Time. Here's Why
Macro strategists and global portfolio managers have their hands full on this final week of August. As we said recently, this is no time to mail it in before Labor Day in the U.S. And for equity traders and bottom-up analysts, NVIDIA (NVDA) writes the storyline in the sessions ahead. The world's most valuable company reports Q2 results after the bell on Wednesday.
Are US Micro-Caps the Market’s Best Kept Secret?
This may come as something of a surprise since the financial press has not written or said much about how well this important—and opportunity-rich—subset of small-cap has performed over the last several months.
AI Washing in WealthTech: How to Tell the Real from the Relabeled
The WealthTech market has a serious AI-washing problem. The term borrows directly from a parallel wealth management executives already understand. Just as greenwashing described investment managers who marketed ESG commitments they could not substantiate, AI washing describes technology vendors who relabel rules-based automation as artificial intelligence.
Jackson Hole Offers Warsh High Profile Slot to Rebut His Critics
Kevin Warsh’s first major speech as chairman of the Federal Reserve has become an unexpected trial of his slimmed-down communications style.
US Stocks Rally as AI-Linked Names Bounce Before Nvidia Earnings
US stocks advanced on Tuesday as technology names rallied and investors continued to prepare for Nvidia Corp. earnings and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Treasuries Gain as Oil Drop Eases Pressure on Inflation, Bessent
Treasuries gained as a decline in crude oil eased inflation concerns and the pressure on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has been moving to halt a months-long selloff that pushed the longest-dated yields to the highest in almost two decades.
The Bond Market Is Returning to the Old Normal
Yields on 30-year US bonds broke 5% last week, a level not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis. The Treasury Department bought bonds in an attempt to lower yields. It worked — for a day, then bond yields went back up. Meanwhile, in a not-exactly-unrelated development, the US national debt just passed $40 trillion.
Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)
In the first part of this series, I promised that the next enemy we would face is the one you cannot fire, mute, or unfollow, because it is “You.” You can learn every valuation metric ever invented, memorize the two questions that decide everything, and still hand most of your returns back to the market for one simple reason.
Operation Twist
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Bessent & Warsh Go Down the Jackson Hole
Without a doubt, the number-one story in the financial markets of late has been the run-up in longer-dated Treasury (UST) yields. Indeed, headlines in both traditional and social media have centered on the fact that bond yields are now at levels not seen in nearly 20 years, or the time period right before the Financial Crisis hit in 2007.
What’s Pushing Long-Term Bond Yields Higher?
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has touched roughly 5.3% in the past week, a level not seen in nearly two decades. Global counterparts in Europe, the U.K., and Japan have climbed to similar heights.
Rising Yields May Create Opportunity Rather Than Signal a Bond Market Crisis
For the past five weeks, markets have been focused on a steady stream of corporate earnings, supported by upbeat management commentary and another quarter of strong results. But with second quarter 2026 earnings season nearing its end, investors' attention is shifting back to the macro backdrop.
Did America Just Become a Nation of Luddites?
Something strange has been happening in America lately. The Wall Street Journal says this is the summer when the U.S. became “a nation of Luddites.” The Economist calls it “the Summer of Ludd.”
U.S. ETF Inflows Hit Record $1.23 Trillion Through July
U.S.-listed ETFs pulled in a record $193.42 billion in July, pushing year-to-date net inflows to $1.23 trillion. That total is the strongest seven-month haul on record, according to ETFGI’s July 2026 U.S. ETF industry report.
In the search for yield, you have options
Join the experts at SoFi for a product due diligence session covering the evolving income landscape and how options strategies can help investors pursue monthly income in different ways.
Why “Customized” Portfolios Still Look the Same
When portfolios become standardized, investor experience becomes standardized right along with them, even though almost nothing else about those investors is standard. Their goals, tax exposure, risk tolerances, and individual spending needs are too individualized to be captured by many models that purport to be customized.
The Hidden Concentration Between a Portfolio's Equity & Bond Sleeves
While it is useful to analyze holdings by asset class, a portfolio-wide view can provide additional insights. Typically, the bond sleeve and the equity sleeve are seen as entirely separate. However, they usually hold unnoticed concentrations in different companies.
US Futures Drop as Investors Prep for Busy Week, Nvidia Earnings
US stocks traded lower before the bell on Monday as investors prepared for a busy week of economic data and important earnings from Nvidia Corp.
Your Clients Already Own Crypto. Does Your Firm Have a Policy?
The question facing advisors is no longer whether clients can hold digital assets, because many already do. It is whether the firm can explain, in writing, how each position was sized, why a particular product was chosen, and where that decision is recorded. Most firms cannot, and that gap is the exposure.
Bessent Eyes Treasury Cashpile for Debt Buybacks, CNBC Says
The Treasury Department could opt to draw down some of its cash pile to fund expanded buybacks of higher-yielding, older securities, CNBC reported Monday, citing two senior Treasury officials.
Normal Interest Rates: What The Debt Panic Gets Wrong
The debt problem is real. It just isn’t a bomb. As we’ve written before, the debt and deficit problem isn’t what you think. It’s a tax on future growth, collected slowly, and normal interest rates are simply the price of money doing its job, not the crisis the headlines keep selling.
A Bigger Basket Isn't Always a More Diversified One
Most of us try to be mindful not to put all our eggs in one basket. But the now-familiar concern that most portfolios are quite concentrated in a relatively small group of large US tech companies means that investors may still be doing just that.
Market Signals: Why Real Assets, Why Multi-Fund
Today, the backdrop for real assets has reset. Growth is returning, but in different parts of the market than many investors remember. While in the post-pandemic period performance was defined by scale, now it is the result of adaptability and having access to a broad array of organization sizes and business plans.
Takeaways From the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes
The minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, released this week, revealed a committee that remained broadly hawkish. Policymakers continued to characterize inflation as elevated and emphasized that upside inflation risks persist.
Rogue AI Is a Scary But Fixable Problem
No doubt, AI can be an unnerving tool. But it isn’t magic, malevolent, or secretly sentient. With some reasonable rules in place, policymakers should be able to keep the bots in line, and unleash the benefits for everyone else.
A Testing Time For Inflation Targeting
To some, the debate over inflation targeting is largely an academic exercise. But its outcome will have direct consequences for the paths of global interest rates and global markets. Some background on how we arrived at this juncture, and where we might go from here, follows.
20 Fast-Growing Stocks at Fair Value to Build Wealth
In this video, Chuck Carnevale examines 20 fast-growing businesses that appear reasonably or attractively valued, focusing on the GARP principle—Growth at a Reasonable Price. The central message is that investors shouldn’t simply look for great companies; they should look for great businesses at sensible valuations.
The Key Inflation Signal for Investors
In the early weeks of Kevin Warsh’s start as chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, there has been renewed focus on how “underlying” inflation should be measured to guide decisions on interest rates.
White House Bitcoin Support Sparks This ETF
On the back of the White House’s cryptocurrency confab, which brought together policymakers and leaders of the digital asset community, Bitcoin notched a double-digit gain over August 19-20 — a rally that pumped new life into the largest digital currency.
Why International Stocks Are Outpacing the U.S. Again
For 11 of the 12 years following the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. stocks beat international markets. But that trend has flipped: Over the past four years, international equities have taken the lead.
Healthcare Pt. 2: Show Me The Incentive
The truth about the runaway costs of healthcare turns out to be a little more complex than any single source we've named. Hospitals, insurers, private equity, administrators, pharmaceutical companies… pull the thread on any one and we land in the same overextended, bloated, extractive system.
America's New Debt Reality
U.S. debt may not be at an immediate breaking point, but persistent deficits, higher rates, and rising interest costs are narrowing fiscal space and market tolerance.
Returns, Diversification, and Liquidity
GMO’s liquid alternatives are hedge fund strategies (e.g., equity long-short, global macro, event-driven) managed with an emphasis on risk control and liquidity. The GMO Alternative Allocation Strategy (“ALTA”) is a liquid alternative solution combining several underlying strategies; ALTA is available in a mutual fund with daily liquidity.
US Treasuries—Drawing a Line at the Long End
On August 19, the US Treasury announced that it will at least double the size of its long-term bond buybacks, from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, between September 9 and the November Quarterly Refunding. The announcement followed a rise in the 30-year Treasury yield to roughly 5.3% and is drawing attention to how the Treasury may respond if pressure at the long end persists.
Keeping The Pace Up
Outdoor sports and exercise are more difficult at the height of summer. Runners slow their paces, and teams start their practices early to beat the heat. Competitors must marshal their energy carefully to perform at their best.
Gold Jumps as Treasury Buybacks Revive Debasement Concerns
Gold climbed to the highest in three months as the US Treasury’s bold intervention to try to stem a damaging increase in borrowing costs revived investor fears about its fiscal burden.
Bitcoin on Track for Biggest Weekly Gain in Over Three Years
Market exuberance returned to cryptocurrencies when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Wednesday the department would at least double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, triggering an upswing that forced traders to liquidate billions in short positions.
Goldman, JPMorgan Are Among Most Bullish on Europe
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists are among the most optimistic about European stocks on the back of a robust corporate earnings outlook, a Bloomberg survey shows.
AI Bets Send Industrials Soaring, But a Slowdow May Be Coming
A brisk rally in industrial stocks this year has defied higher oil prices, rising bond yields and restrictive trade policies, as investors bet on big gains from the artificial intelligence boom. Now signs are emerging the optimism may have gone too far.
US Stocks Gain as Nasdaq 100 Looks to Snap Five-Day Slump
US stocks rose in early trading Friday, putting the Nasdaq 100 on track to end a five-day losing streak as bond yields stabilize and Bitcoin soars.
T. Rowe Price Acquires $19 Billion F/m Investments
Leading asset managers T. Rowe Price announced the acquisition of $19 billion F/m Investments in a press release Thursday afternoon. The deal brings F/m’s suite of leading fixed income strategies and ETFs into T. Rowe Price’s fund stable, reinforcing those areas in the latter’s list.
The Russell Reset Nobody Saw Coming
For years, Russell index reconstitutions have been treated as a routine maintenance event. Thousands of stocks are ranked, memberships are adjusted, and markets move on