According to Preqin, the leading provider of alternative assets data, U.S. real estate funds raised a record $111 billion in equity in 2021, an increase of 35% from 2020 and 16% more than 2019. More investors are allocating to private real estate than ever before, likely because the asset class is poised to rally throughout 2022 while inflation rises, stocks experience continued volatility, and bond returns decrease.
Origin Investments has been laser-focused on private real estate investing for fifteen years. On this webinar, Origin Investments Co-CEO David Scherer will discuss the ways private real estate benefits an investor’s portfolio and why an increasing number of RIAs are allocating to private real estate. Plus, he’ll provide an overview of the diversified multifamily real estate funds that Origin offers to investors.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve did not make any formal changes to its policy, but did signal it would begin raising the fed funds rate soon.
At the January 2022 meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled an accelerated timetable to normalize policy, but it will be a long process amid an uncertain environment.
The Nasdaq will go into bear market territory and the S&P 500 will suffer a correction, according to Jeremy Siegel.
The longstanding negative correlation between stock and bond prices is an artifact of the low-inflation environment of the past 30 years.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Crypto prices are tumbling. By one account, crypto assets have lost about $1.35 trillion globally since November, with some falling in price by 80% or more. Many investors feel a real pinch.
Bonds tumbled across the world on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s latest hawkish pivot, with yields from Wellington to London breaching multi-year highs.
Strategists are mapping out their best trade ideas after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set the stage for raising interest rates to combat the highest inflation since 1982.
U.S. economic growth accelerated by more than forecast in the final three months of last year, fueled by the rebuilding of inventories and a pickup in consumer spending.
Large hedge funds and private-equity firms may soon have to start reporting steep losses, major redemptions and other extraordinary events in near real-time to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission -- a change that the regulator says will help it protect the financial system during meltdowns and wild swings like the meme stock mania that roiled markets a year ago.
In our latest issue, Andy Rothman discusses how last year’s experiences can help us plan for China’s 2022 economic prospects.
Spurred by rate hike concerns, geopolitical tensions and more, markets saw a 10% correction intra-day today – find out how that impacts our outlook.
Since May 2020, the Chinese Yuan has defied the path of other emerging market currencies, strengthening by almost 12%.
Disagreements about the outlook for inflation in the new year and beyond continue.
Members of Loomis Sayles' IG Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
In our latest outlook we examine the long-term implications of the pandemic, particularly changes to the labor market and the supply chain, and we discuss why we will be focusing on companies with pricing power in 2022.
Meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, the broader stock market: All have tumbled with astonishing speed this year, and few strategists think the pain will end here.
Investors have been taking refuge from the Chinese real estate debt crisis in pockets of the broader Asian credit market, and cite India among opportunities that are relatively insulated from the historic turmoil.
Large asset managers provide model portfolios for many purposes — as options in 401(k) plans, as blueprints for institutional clients and affiliated financial advisors, and as suggestions for unaffiliated investment advisors. These have the “lather, rinse, repeat” conflict of interest.
I offer my top 10 roster of realizable and important financial resolutions to start your year off on the right foot!
On April 12, 2019, Chevron (CVX) and its CEO, Mike Wirth, offered $33 billion dollars to buy the common shares of Anadarko Petroleum.
Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for November. U.S. house prices were up 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 17.6% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.2% in November and up 8.4% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
The COVID-19 pandemic looked set to batter the world’s banks—and yet banks’ balance sheets are now the strongest they’ve been since the global financial crisis (GFC).
Surging markets spurred a buying frenzy for everything from stocks and cryptocurrencies to new homes over the last two years. Now, with inflation at a nearly 40-year high and at least three priced-in rate hikes, the hunt for investing safe havens is on.
With the S&P 500 extending its selloff from a recent record to more than 10%, trading is spiking across exchange-traded funds from leveraged strategies tracking technology shares to those betting on market volatility.
“Supply chain” used to be a piece of business jargon that rarely made its way into normal conversations.
U.S. bank stocks are headed for their worst losing streak in a year, burning investors who bought shares on expectations that the Federal Reserve raising rates for the first time since 2018 would boost the sector.
Rate hikes will be far fewer than the markets currently expect.
After a tumultuous data deluge over the last two years, 2022 may begin to see the economic silt settling a bit, even as the waves of reaction to uncertainties continue. Check out our 2022 Investment Outlook covering the Housing Market, Interest Rates, Fiscal Stimulus, Inflation, & Market Returns.
The Fed is walking a tightrope between instability and inflation. Can it successfully tame inflation without causing severe market dislocations?
Laurence Kotlikoff is a world-class economist who can convince you to pay off your mortgage and make you snort out your nose laughing at the same time; Money Magic is his compendium of life hacks aimed at leaving the reader wealthier and happier.
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
Many analysts project China will soon be larger by GDP than the US—which shouldn’t be so hard with a population four times larger—but it’s not clear to me that China’s seemingly unlimited linear growth will continue three or four more decades. I can remember when the same was said about Japan.
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 21, 2022, at 1.75%, the 2-year note ended at 1.01%, and the 30-year at 2.07%.
In his renomination hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the key to maximum sustainable employment and financial stability was keeping inflation low.
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise.
The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.
The panic of the day is the news about interest rates.
The municipal bond market has historically outperformed relative to Treasurys during periods of rising interest rates.
For China, the year ahead holds special political and economic significance.
All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend.
With January being a month for prognostications, David Mann, our Head of Global Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) Capital Markets, shares his annual outlook for the ETF industry and key trends he sees taking shape in 2022.
This morning's release of the December Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million units from the previous month's 6.49 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 6.44 million. The latest number represents a 6% decrease from the previous month and an 8.3% decrease YoY.
A rapid one-two punch of interest-rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction from the Federal Reserve risks unsettling bond and stock markets that have already taken a beating.
Exiting bankruptcy alone won’t bring Puerto Rico prosperity and vitality. But it’s a crucial first step.
The webcast will explore the impact of inflation on fixed income investments and potential inflation hedges from non-traditional sources.
“Don’t Fight The Fed.” But, unfortunately, that mantra has remained a “call to arms” of the financial markets and media “bullish tribes” over the last decade.
Most investors need little persuading that emerging markets offer exciting opportunities.
The industry has been slammed by a combination of concerns about higher U.S. interest rates, a probable reduction in solar-system subsidies for California homeowners, the broader stock market rotation out of high-growth technology companies and the obstruction of President Joe Biden’s stalled “Build Back Better” agenda by 50 Republicans and two Democrats, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
A booming $4.9 trillion branch of the U.S. asset management industry is funneling investor cash into funds that are pricier and worse-performing than alternatives, new research claims.
Rougher seas lie ahead for non-profit fiduciaries as the COVID-19 pandemic stretches into 2022 and refuses to retreat quietly into the night.
Last week, U.S. Treasury bond yields, climbed back to their pre-pandemic levels.
Consumer prices rose 7.0% in 2021, the largest increase for any calendar year since 1981.
Members of Loomis Sayles' Global Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
Treasuries slid and yield-curve premiums shrank to the lowest in almost two years amid increased speculation the Federal Reserve will deliver more than a quarter-percentage point rate hike in March.
Markets are weird right now. The value of risk-free assets has gone all out of whack, and if that doesn't seem scary, keep reading.
What insights can we glean beyond last year’s impressive 28% return? How did it compare it to global equities? I will show you some of the winners and losers, and finish with a few observations on the VIX.
The flow of excess cash has returned to normal, but the stock is still quite elevated.
Last year was a good year for stocks, but not bonds. The post-2008 recovery has been spectacular, one of the best 13-year U.S. stock markets. I provide details for the entire 96 years as well as five-year and 10-year sub-periods
Stocks are priced for perfection. Bonds trade at historically low yields despite 7% inflation. What could go wrong?
If we will experience a lower equity risk premium, how much lower of a premium will make stock investing unattractive relative to bonds?
In 1837, as in 2022, there was general certainty that prices were determined by the money supply – the quantity of legal tender circulating in the economy.
Few inventions have touched so many lives as the container.
Today I’ll continue the annual forecast I began last week. New COVID developments are unfolding rapidly. If we’re lucky, they may carve out a nice bookend for us. But my worry is that rather than bookends it could be economicus interruptus. 2019 was not portending the most robust of economies. What if, in Groundhog Day fashion, we end up back where we were?
In an economy where the Fed has lost every systematic tether to common sense, empirical evidence, and concern for financial stability, it’s worth beginning this first market comment of 2022 by recalling the ways we’ve adapted in order to navigate that environment.
As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.
Loomis Sayles' Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the Federal Reserve and the U.S. economy.
The year ended on a highly upbeat tone for investors as equities rose to new heights against a backdrop of inflation and a prolonged pandemic
With the Q3 GDP Third Estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 206.6%, down from 212.7% the previous quarter.
In our Q3 market commentary, we described the primary economic fears behind a lackluster and trendless market.
Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald discusses market risks and opportunities awaiting investors as 2022 begins. Tom will cover an array of topics, including U.S. and international stocks, the economy, interest rates, Fed policy, credit markets, and international strategies. He will dive deep into the impacts of COVID-19 trends and its variants, as well as inflation. He'll explore the prospects for economic growth in the year ahead, plus the possible ramifications of a break in strong pent-up consumer demand.
2021 is now in the rear-view mirror and I believe that future financial historians may regard it as the year of peak speculation.
Investors expect the Fed’s bond-buying program to be promptly wound down and have calmly penciled in four increases in interest rates this year, starting in March.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker joined the widespread calls by his policy-making colleagues for higher interest rates this year, saying he favors a March liftoff and three or four hikes for the 2022.
Prices paid to U.S. producers decelerated in December as two key drivers of inflation in 2021 -- food and energy -- declined from a month earlier, representing a respite in the recent trend of sizable increases.
U.S. Treasuries shook off the steepest jump to consumer-price inflation in four decades and absorbed a 10-year note sale, with the figures reinforcing already widespread anticipation that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in March.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sought to reassure lawmakers and investors on Tuesday that the central bank can pull off the tricky task of bringing down four-decade high inflation without damaging the U.S. economy.
We highlight a few takeaways from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s confirmation hearing today before the Senate Banking Committee, broken down by topic.
The Federal Reserve dealt the bond market a sharp body blow on January 5th with the release of the minutes of its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in December 2021.
Impact investing is gaining interest as a growing share of investors seeks tangible progress on environmental and social goals alongside financial returns.
Inflation is rising rapidly, not an unexpected outcome given governments’ pandemic policy response of ballooning deficits and soaring government debt.
Monetary policy has driven U.S. stock prices to excessive valuations, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. But they remain cheap relative to bonds.
The global macro environment is ripe for EM assets outperformance as a combination of stronger growth in China, the end of exceptionalism in the US and less uncertainty on US interest rates, lead to a strong backdrop for EM assets.
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.
“Speculative” is a word that aptly sums up the year 2021.
Things are about to get worse -- but after that, they should steadily get better. That’s roughly how economists envisage the path of U.S. inflation in the year ahead.
Fixed Income
Grow Your Clients’ Wealth With Private Real Estate
According to Preqin, the leading provider of alternative assets data, U.S. real estate funds raised a record $111 billion in equity in 2021, an increase of 35% from 2020 and 16% more than 2019. More investors are allocating to private real estate than ever before, likely because the asset class is poised to rally throughout 2022 while inflation rises, stocks experience continued volatility, and bond returns decrease.
Origin Investments has been laser-focused on private real estate investing for fifteen years. On this webinar, Origin Investments Co-CEO David Scherer will discuss the ways private real estate benefits an investor’s portfolio and why an increasing number of RIAs are allocating to private real estate. Plus, he’ll provide an overview of the diversified multifamily real estate funds that Origin offers to investors.
Fed’s Message: Get Ready
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve did not make any formal changes to its policy, but did signal it would begin raising the fed funds rate soon.
The Fed’s Road to Full Normalization
At the January 2022 meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled an accelerated timetable to normalize policy, but it will be a long process amid an uncertain environment.
Jeremy Siegel: Bear Market for Nasdaq; Correction for S&P
The Nasdaq will go into bear market territory and the S&P 500 will suffer a correction, according to Jeremy Siegel.
Inflation Will Hurt Both Stocks and Bonds
The longstanding negative correlation between stock and bond prices is an artifact of the low-inflation environment of the past 30 years.
Global Economic Outlook: Touch And Go
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
The Crypto Crash Strengthens the Case for Crypto
Crypto prices are tumbling. By one account, crypto assets have lost about $1.35 trillion globally since November, with some falling in price by 80% or more. Many investors feel a real pinch.
Fed Fallout Triggers Global Yield Spike as Tighter Policy Looms
Bonds tumbled across the world on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s latest hawkish pivot, with yields from Wellington to London breaching multi-year highs.
Value Stocks, U.S. Dollar Among Top Trades After Hawkish Fed
Strategists are mapping out their best trade ideas after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set the stage for raising interest rates to combat the highest inflation since 1982.
U.S. Economic Growth Quickened Last Quarter With Inventory Boost
U.S. economic growth accelerated by more than forecast in the final three months of last year, fueled by the rebuilding of inventories and a pickup in consumer spending.
Hedge Funds Face New SEC Disclosures as Gensler Cracks Down
Large hedge funds and private-equity firms may soon have to start reporting steep losses, major redemptions and other extraordinary events in near real-time to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission -- a change that the regulator says will help it protect the financial system during meltdowns and wild swings like the meme stock mania that roiled markets a year ago.
Planning for ’22 with Lessons from ‘21
In our latest issue, Andy Rothman discusses how last year’s experiences can help us plan for China’s 2022 economic prospects.
Investment Strategy Commentary: Market Pullback
Spurred by rate hike concerns, geopolitical tensions and more, markets saw a 10% correction intra-day today – find out how that impacts our outlook.
Why Has the Chinese Yuan Been So Strong, Will it Last, and What Does it Mean for the US?
Since May 2020, the Chinese Yuan has defied the path of other emerging market currencies, strengthening by almost 12%.
Quick Thoughts: The Inflation Debate
Disagreements about the outlook for inflation in the new year and beyond continue.
2022 Investment Grade Credit Outlook: Views on Risk Appetite, Rising Stars and Trends
Members of Loomis Sayles' IG Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
Equity Investment Outlook: The Pandemic’s Long Tail
In our latest outlook we examine the long-term implications of the pandemic, particularly changes to the labor market and the supply chain, and we discuss why we will be focusing on companies with pricing power in 2022.
Market Crash Hands Defeat to Traders Who Warred With Wall Street
Meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, the broader stock market: All have tumbled with astonishing speed this year, and few strategists think the pain will end here.
Where Investors Fleeing Chinese Property Are Putting Their Money
Investors have been taking refuge from the Chinese real estate debt crisis in pockets of the broader Asian credit market, and cite India among opportunities that are relatively insulated from the historic turmoil.
Wall Street's Model Portfolios Are Misunderstood
Large asset managers provide model portfolios for many purposes — as options in 401(k) plans, as blueprints for institutional clients and affiliated financial advisors, and as suggestions for unaffiliated investment advisors. These have the “lather, rinse, repeat” conflict of interest.
Ten New Year’s Financial Resolutions Clients Can Keep
I offer my top 10 roster of realizable and important financial resolutions to start your year off on the right foot!
Occidental Petroleum’s Wirth
On April 12, 2019, Chevron (CVX) and its CEO, Mike Wirth, offered $33 billion dollars to buy the common shares of Anadarko Petroleum.
1Q 2022 Outlooks from the Calamos Investment Team
Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
FHFA House Price Index: Up Another 1.1% in November
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for November. U.S. house prices were up 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 17.6% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.2% in November and up 8.4% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Why Banks' Balance Sheets Are in Better Shape
The COVID-19 pandemic looked set to batter the world’s banks—and yet banks’ balance sheets are now the strongest they’ve been since the global financial crisis (GFC).
Real Estate Is Emerging as a Hedge Against Roaring Inflation
Surging markets spurred a buying frenzy for everything from stocks and cryptocurrencies to new homes over the last two years. Now, with inflation at a nearly 40-year high and at least three priced-in rate hikes, the hunt for investing safe havens is on.
Worried Traders Make Dash for Stock Liquidity as Selloff Worsens
With the S&P 500 extending its selloff from a recent record to more than 10%, trading is spiking across exchange-traded funds from leveraged strategies tracking technology shares to those betting on market volatility.
Supply Side Problems Persist
“Supply chain” used to be a piece of business jargon that rarely made its way into normal conversations.
U.S. Bank Stocks Trapped in Longest Losing Streak in a Year
U.S. bank stocks are headed for their worst losing streak in a year, burning investors who bought shares on expectations that the Federal Reserve raising rates for the first time since 2018 would boost the sector.
Rate Hikes: The Fed Won’t Hike Nearly As Much As Expected
Rate hikes will be far fewer than the markets currently expect.
AAM Has Released Its 2022 Best Ideas and Investment Outlook
After a tumultuous data deluge over the last two years, 2022 may begin to see the economic silt settling a bit, even as the waves of reaction to uncertainties continue. Check out our 2022 Investment Outlook covering the Housing Market, Interest Rates, Fiscal Stimulus, Inflation, & Market Returns.
Will the Fed Choose Financial Instability or Inflation?
The Fed is walking a tightrope between instability and inflation. Can it successfully tame inflation without causing severe market dislocations?
An Economist Looks at School, Marriage, Divorce, and Moving in with Your Mom
Laurence Kotlikoff is a world-class economist who can convince you to pay off your mortgage and make you snort out your nose laughing at the same time; Money Magic is his compendium of life hacks aimed at leaving the reader wealthier and happier.
The Shipping Industry Has Never Been So Profitable as It Is Now
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
Beijing’s Dilemmas
Many analysts project China will soon be larger by GDP than the US—which shouldn’t be so hard with a population four times larger—but it’s not clear to me that China’s seemingly unlimited linear growth will continue three or four more decades. I can remember when the same was said about Japan.
Treasury Snapshot: 10-Year Note at 1.75%
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 21, 2022, at 1.75%, the 2-year note ended at 1.01%, and the 30-year at 2.07%.
Weekly Market Snapshot
In his renomination hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the key to maximum sustainable employment and financial stability was keeping inflation low.
The WisdomTree Q1 2022 Economic and Market Outlook in 10 Charts or Less
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise.
Bolstering Asset Allocation Defenses Against COVID-19
The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.
Don’t Panic About Interest Rates
The panic of the day is the news about interest rates.
2022 Municipal Bond Outlook: Views on Rates, Fundamentals and Infrastructure
The municipal bond market has historically outperformed relative to Treasurys during periods of rising interest rates.
China’s Economy in the Year of the Tiger
For China, the year ahead holds special political and economic significance.
Let The Wild Rumpus Begin
All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend.
ETF Trends to Watch in 2022: Conversions, International Interest and Sustainable Funds
With January being a month for prognostications, David Mann, our Head of Global Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) Capital Markets, shares his annual outlook for the ETF industry and key trends he sees taking shape in 2022.
Existing-Home Sales: Down 6% from November and 8.3% YoY
This morning's release of the December Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million units from the previous month's 6.49 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 6.44 million. The latest number represents a 6% decrease from the previous month and an 8.3% decrease YoY.
Markets Tremble at Fed’s Unprecedented Double-Edged Tightening
A rapid one-two punch of interest-rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction from the Federal Reserve risks unsettling bond and stock markets that have already taken a beating.
Puerto Rico’s Bankruptcy Exit Isn’t the Finish Line
Exiting bankruptcy alone won’t bring Puerto Rico prosperity and vitality. But it’s a crucial first step.
Combat the Potential Perils of High Inflation with ASYMmetric Returns
The webcast will explore the impact of inflation on fixed income investments and potential inflation hedges from non-traditional sources.
“Don’t Fight The Fed”
“Don’t Fight The Fed.” But, unfortunately, that mantra has remained a “call to arms” of the financial markets and media “bullish tribes” over the last decade.
Emerging-Market Investors Can't Afford to Ignore ESG Factors
Most investors need little persuading that emerging markets offer exciting opportunities.
Battered Clean Energy Stocks May Soon Recover
The industry has been slammed by a combination of concerns about higher U.S. interest rates, a probable reduction in solar-system subsidies for California homeowners, the broader stock market rotation out of high-growth technology companies and the obstruction of President Joe Biden’s stalled “Build Back Better” agenda by 50 Republicans and two Democrats, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
Wall Street’s ‘Model Portfolio’ Boom Gets Slammed in New Paper
A booming $4.9 trillion branch of the U.S. asset management industry is funneling investor cash into funds that are pricier and worse-performing than alternatives, new research claims.
The 2022 List Issue, Part 5: 4 Steps for Non-Profit Fiduciaries to Consider This Year
Rougher seas lie ahead for non-profit fiduciaries as the COVID-19 pandemic stretches into 2022 and refuses to retreat quietly into the night.
What Do Rising Rates Mean for Stock Investors?
Last week, U.S. Treasury bond yields, climbed back to their pre-pandemic levels.
Who Gets the Blame for Inflation
Consumer prices rose 7.0% in 2021, the largest increase for any calendar year since 1981.
2022 Global Credit Outlook: Views on Growth, the ECB and ESG Investing
Members of Loomis Sayles' Global Credit Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
Total Return Outlook: We Have Liftoff!
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
Traders Weigh Bigger Fed Rate Hike in March as U.S. Yields Soar
Treasuries slid and yield-curve premiums shrank to the lowest in almost two years amid increased speculation the Federal Reserve will deliver more than a quarter-percentage point rate hike in March.
How Safe Assets Became Investors' Biggest Risk
Markets are weird right now. The value of risk-free assets has gone all out of whack, and if that doesn't seem scary, keep reading.
Deep Analytic Market Insights for 2021
What insights can we glean beyond last year’s impressive 28% return? How did it compare it to global equities? I will show you some of the winners and losers, and finish with a few observations on the VIX.
Last Year's Saving Is This Year’s Spending
The flow of excess cash has returned to normal, but the stock is still quite elevated.
Nine Charts Summarizing the 96-Year Capital Markets History
Last year was a good year for stocks, but not bonds. The post-2008 recovery has been spectacular, one of the best 13-year U.S. stock markets. I provide details for the entire 96 years as well as five-year and 10-year sub-periods
2022 Investment Outlook (Part 2) – Stocks and Bonds
Stocks are priced for perfection. Bonds trade at historically low yields despite 7% inflation. What could go wrong?
Is It Still Worth Investing in Stocks?
If we will experience a lower equity risk premium, how much lower of a premium will make stock investing unattractive relative to bonds?
Andrew Jackson Shortens the Credit Chain
In 1837, as in 2022, there was general certainty that prices were determined by the money supply – the quantity of legal tender circulating in the economy.
Consider the Humble Shipping Container
Few inventions have touched so many lives as the container.
Year of the Bookends
Today I’ll continue the annual forecast I began last week. New COVID developments are unfolding rapidly. If we’re lucky, they may carve out a nice bookend for us. But my worry is that rather than bookends it could be economicus interruptus. 2019 was not portending the most robust of economies. What if, in Groundhog Day fashion, we end up back where we were?
Return-Free Risk
In an economy where the Fed has lost every systematic tether to common sense, empirical evidence, and concern for financial stability, it’s worth beginning this first market comment of 2022 by recalling the ways we’ve adapted in order to navigate that environment.
Strategic Income Outlook: One Heck of a Year
As we reflect on 2021, we can’t help but feel it was quite a year. Looking ahead, we think many of the same headwinds and tailwinds are likely to persist in 2022, so we are trying to find the right balance between offense and defense.
2022 Emerging Markets Debt Outlook: Views on Fundamentals, EM Asia and Opportunities
Loomis Sayles' Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team share their views on key themes in 2022.
In Like A Lion
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the Federal Reserve and the U.S. economy.
Q4 2021: “Tracking the Recovery: Inflationary Pressure a Symptom Not the Cause”
The year ended on a highly upbeat tone for investors as equities rose to new heights against a backdrop of inflation and a prolonged pandemic
Market Cap to GDP: December Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the Q3 GDP Third Estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 206.6%, down from 212.7% the previous quarter.
The Long and Winding Road That Leads to ‘Normal’
In our Q3 market commentary, we described the primary economic fears behind a lackluster and trendless market.
Where We Stand: Transamerica 2022 Market Outlook
Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald discusses market risks and opportunities awaiting investors as 2022 begins. Tom will cover an array of topics, including U.S. and international stocks, the economy, interest rates, Fed policy, credit markets, and international strategies. He will dive deep into the impacts of COVID-19 trends and its variants, as well as inflation. He'll explore the prospects for economic growth in the year ahead, plus the possible ramifications of a break in strong pent-up consumer demand.
The Year Of Living Dangerously
2021 is now in the rear-view mirror and I believe that future financial historians may regard it as the year of peak speculation.
As Inflation Soars, the Fed Needs to Keep Its Head
Investors expect the Fed’s bond-buying program to be promptly wound down and have calmly penciled in four increases in interest rates this year, starting in March.
Fed’s Harker Sees Liftoff in March, Three or Four Hikes in 2022
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker joined the widespread calls by his policy-making colleagues for higher interest rates this year, saying he favors a March liftoff and three or four hikes for the 2022.
Smaller Gain in U.S. Producer Prices Is Hint of Cooler Inflation
Prices paid to U.S. producers decelerated in December as two key drivers of inflation in 2021 -- food and energy -- declined from a month earlier, representing a respite in the recent trend of sizable increases.
U.S. Treasuries Gain After Inflation Surge In Line With Expectations
U.S. Treasuries shook off the steepest jump to consumer-price inflation in four decades and absorbed a 10-year note sale, with the figures reinforcing already widespread anticipation that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in March.
Powell Makes Case for Fed Curbing Inflation While Doing No Harm
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sought to reassure lawmakers and investors on Tuesday that the central bank can pull off the tricky task of bringing down four-decade high inflation without damaging the U.S. economy.
Powell Successfully Walks the Tightrope
We highlight a few takeaways from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s confirmation hearing today before the Senate Banking Committee, broken down by topic.
The Fed’s Policy Tightening Plan: A One-Two Punch
The Federal Reserve dealt the bond market a sharp body blow on January 5th with the release of the minutes of its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in December 2021.
The Case for Impact Investing in Public Equities
Impact investing is gaining interest as a growing share of investors seeks tangible progress on environmental and social goals alongside financial returns.
Inflation Is Here! What Now?
Inflation is rising rapidly, not an unexpected outcome given governments’ pandemic policy response of ballooning deficits and soaring government debt.
Gundlach’s 2022 Forecast: Equities are Expensive but Cheap Relative to Bonds
Monetary policy has driven U.S. stock prices to excessive valuations, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. But they remain cheap relative to bonds.
Four Mega-Trends Shaping the 2022 Outlook and Beyond
The global macro environment is ripe for EM assets outperformance as a combination of stronger growth in China, the end of exceptionalism in the US and less uncertainty on US interest rates, lead to a strong backdrop for EM assets.
Investing in a Fast‑Moving Cycle
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.
Speculative Mania – Was 2021 The Peak?
“Speculative” is a word that aptly sums up the year 2021.
The Clashing Forces That Will Drive U.S. Inflation in 2022
Things are about to get worse -- but after that, they should steadily get better. That’s roughly how economists envisage the path of U.S. inflation in the year ahead.