Join Delaware Funds by Macquarie’s Co-Head of US Multisector Fixed Income, Daniela Mardarovici, for an interactive discussion that will help answer some of the biggest questions on investors’ minds.
A group of conservative Republicans representatives known as the House Freedom Caucus came out last week against any proposal that would lift the cap on deposit insurance, currently set at $250,000. Members of US Congress on both sides of the aisle are understandably cautious about taking such a dramatic step in the middle of an unfolding crisis.
The dollar has lost some of its luster over the winter. The twin supports of its status as the preferred haven during the pandemic and being backed by the world’s strongest economy are fading.
Congress is asking the Federal Reserve and other financial regulators what went wrong at Silicon Valley Bank and why they didn’t see it coming. In due course, they’ll admit some mistakes, draw some lessons and tweak some rules.
I’ve received more emails and calls from clients on the failure of SVB Bank than I did on the stock market crash in April of 2020. That tells me there is wide concern today about the stability of the economy and financial markets.
The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to investigate the collapse of Signature Bank (SBNY) and Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB/SIVBQ) that brought to discussion possible changes for the entire banking system.
From the perspective of the U.S. stock market, 2022 was a miserable year (with the S&P 500 declining 19.4%), but until recently, 2023 was shaping up to be a stronger year.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. According to the NAR, "Pending home sales grew in February for the third consecutive month."
The failures of Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and the current struggles of First Republic and Pacific West Bank have seen bank deposits flee to the perceived safety of large banks.
With this morning's release of the January S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month (MoM), higher than the Investing.com forecast of -0.5%, and a 2.6% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -1.1% and the YoY was reduced to -4.8%.
In hindsight, it was obvious it wouldn’t last. Low interest rates — the result of shifts in the global economy, economic stability, low inflation and monetary policy — couldn’t stay at zero forever.
A year into its fight against inflation, the Federal Reserve could — just maybe — be done raising its policy rate. History shows that monetary policy pauses mark great buying opportunities for US stocks, but there are several key caveats to bear in mind this time.
For millions of borrowers, student loan forgiveness will mean the difference between significant relief and ongoing payments. If you’re among them, the question is… what next?
The sudden loss of confidence by depositors in some US banks is causing many to focus on the scope for financial contagion and the needed policy responses. What should not be overlooked is the other, and slower, contagion channel in play — that involving enablers of economic growth...
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
Predicting spot exchanges is tricky, but there are still ways of adding value in currency markets, including through a disciplined approach we call currency factor investing.
The demise of a major bank illustrates the global tensions in the financial sector.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Beyond the near-term turmoil, there may need to be a re-evaluation of the regional banking model in the United States, according to a recent panel hosted by Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
The Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Index ® this morning, with the headline number coming in at 104.2, an increase of 0.8 from the upwardly revised final reading of 103.4 in February. This month's reading is better than the Investing.com forecast of 101.0.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for January. U.S. house prices increased by 0.2% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 5.3% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the real index is down 0.2% in January and down 0.3% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
A simple annuity can effectively replace bond holdings in a retirement plan that are earmarked to meet the lifetime spending goal. The question is why should a retiree hold any bonds in the portion of their asset base designed to cover ongoing retirement spending goals?
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday.
Many have questioned the importance of the recent bank failures.
The economic signals and a host of geopolitical risks confronting investors suggest that 2023 could be as challenging as 20022 for both stocks and bonds.
Should investors build their own portfolios of bonds, or buy shares of bond funds? Is there an economic difference or just one of appearance? Are directly held bonds safer because they mature, and you get your money back? How should one decide?
Annie Duke, once one of the best female poker players in the world, helped me understand why people work longer than they need to. This got me thinking about the decumulation problem more broadly and planning to live to age 100.
For all of you following the banking crises in the US and Europe, and asking why this is all happening again, I have bad news: Regardless of what laws are passed, or which regulations are issued, banking crises will recur — and not infrequently.
The pitch for an actively managed bond exchange-traded fund can be compelling, especially when there’s market turmoil and uncertainty
The fallout from SVB will make the Fed's job more difficult.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Stock and bond markets were shaken by the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe.
“QE” or “Quantitative Easing” has been the bull’s “siren song” of the last decade, but will “Not QE” be the same?
Realty Income, A.K.A. the Monthly Dividend Company, has rarely been attractively valued since the spring of 2010. However, rising interest rates have brought the price down to fair value.
Slower credit growth may curtail broader U.S. economic growth, taking pressure off the Federal Reserve.
Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
As interest rates show signs of peaking, gold prices are nearing new all-time highs.
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
Following recent efforts by central banks and regulators to alleviate the banking crisis, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Lukasz Kalwak discuss their thoughts on the implications and outlook for the banking industries in the United States and Europe.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Gold prices surged to test the $2,000/oz level early this week before retreating ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Yesterday, the Fed completed its regular meeting and announced that it would increase interest rates by 25 bps, or a quarter percentage point.
Lower interest rates and more liquidity are the keys to boosting confidence in the financial sector, but they impede the Fed's ability to fight inflation.
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at 0, unchanged from last month's figure. The future outlook came in at 3, up 2 from last month.
Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.
In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting.
Read our latest insight where Dan Suzuki explains what investors need to know about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled it’s not finished hiking, despite the risk of exacerbating a bank crisis that’s roiled global markets.
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
All eyes in the financial and economic world will be laser-focused Wednesday on the Federal Reserve as Chair Jerome Powell tries to balance his fight against inflation against a sudden banking crisis.
Easing financial conditions globally have made Morgan Stanley “outright bullish” on growth stocks in Asia and emerging markets versus their value peers.
A Singapore-based fintech investment firm is close to raising $100 million to back finance and blockchain startups in China and Southeast Asia.
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally.
We have been reminding everyone that we believe we are unwinding a financial euphoria episode that Charlie Munger called the biggest of his career, “because of the totality of it.”
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis.
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
This morning's release of the February existing home sales showed that sales surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million units from the previous month's 4.00 million, ending the 12-month streak of monthly declines. The latest number represents a 14.5% month-over-month increase, its largest since July 2020 and well above the Investing.com forecast of 5%. With that being said, existing home sales are down 22.6% compared to one year ago.
The simplest thing that can be said about current financial market and banking conditions is this: the unwinding of this Fed-induced, yield-seeking speculative bubble is proceeding as one would expect, and it’s not over by a longshot.
Help end investors understand that bailing out of bonds could mean locking in losses and missing a potential recovery.
Steve Chiavarone doesn’t want to scare anyone, but what he remembers most from the last banking crisis was how sure most people were that it wouldn’t happen.
Markets have been trading as if the end of the world is at hand – but what most participants see, behind the recent financial turmoil and contagion fears, is a still-strong US economy, the MLIV Pulse survey shows.
Portfolio Manager Andy Acker explains why the healthcare sector could offer an attractive combination of defense and growth in today’s market.
UBS Group AG agreed to buy Credit Suisse Group AG in a historic, government-brokered deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that had started to spread across global financial markets.
The late great Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was often in dissent in key legal cases during his long career.
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
A TIPS is risky in the short term and riskless in the long run, which is precisely the opposite of, and complementary to, a T-bill, which is riskless in the short term but, because of reinvestment rate volatility, risky in the long run.
With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, questions of potential “bank runs” spread among regional banks.
Could the consensus view of a “no recession” scenario be wrong? As portfolio managers, this is the question we ask ourselves daily.
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
Fears of bank runs precipitating a broader financial crisis helped spark a surge in bullion buying this week.
The full story of SVB is still unfolding, but we offer some initial reactions.
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 17, 2023 at 3.39%, the two-year note ended at 3.81%, and the 30-year at 3.60%.
Just over a year before Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse threatened a generation of technology startups and their backers, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco appointed a more senior team of examiners to assess the firm. They started calling out problem after problem.
Jamie Dimon and Janet Yellen were on a call Tuesday, when she floated an idea: What if the nation’s largest lenders deposited billions of dollars into First Republic Bank, the latest firm getting nudged toward the brink by a depositor panic
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.
Fixed Income
Bonds are bonds again: Will it last?
Join Delaware Funds by Macquarie’s Co-Head of US Multisector Fixed Income, Daniela Mardarovici, for an interactive discussion that will help answer some of the biggest questions on investors’ minds.
Insurance for All Bank Deposits Is a Manageable Cost
A group of conservative Republicans representatives known as the House Freedom Caucus came out last week against any proposal that would lift the cap on deposit insurance, currently set at $250,000. Members of US Congress on both sides of the aisle are understandably cautious about taking such a dramatic step in the middle of an unfolding crisis.
The Dollar's Coming Slide Will Be Welcomed by the World
The dollar has lost some of its luster over the winter. The twin supports of its status as the preferred haven during the pandemic and being backed by the world’s strongest economy are fading.
Want Safer Banks? Then Prepare for Slower Growth
Congress is asking the Federal Reserve and other financial regulators what went wrong at Silicon Valley Bank and why they didn’t see it coming. In due course, they’ll admit some mistakes, draw some lessons and tweak some rules.
Any Bank Can Fail; Don’t Panic
I’ve received more emails and calls from clients on the failure of SVB Bank than I did on the stock market crash in April of 2020. That tells me there is wide concern today about the stability of the economy and financial markets.
Proposed Bank Changes and Fed Comments
The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to investigate the collapse of Signature Bank (SBNY) and Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB/SIVBQ) that brought to discussion possible changes for the entire banking system.
From Crisis Comes Opportunity
From the perspective of the U.S. stock market, 2022 was a miserable year (with the S&P 500 declining 19.4%), but until recently, 2023 was shaping up to be a stronger year.
Pending Home Sales Grew for Third Consecutive Month, Up 0.8% in February
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. According to the NAR, "Pending home sales grew in February for the third consecutive month."
Will FedNow Enable Greater Deposit Flight from Troubled Banks?
The failures of Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and the current struggles of First Republic and Pacific West Bank have seen bank deposits flee to the perceived safety of large banks.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continued Decline in January
With this morning's release of the January S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month (MoM), higher than the Investing.com forecast of -0.5%, and a 2.6% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -1.1% and the YoY was reduced to -4.8%.
Biden Has to Learn the Same Lesson as SVB
In hindsight, it was obvious it wouldn’t last. Low interest rates — the result of shifts in the global economy, economic stability, low inflation and monetary policy — couldn’t stay at zero forever.
History Says to Buy the Fed Pause. Should You?
A year into its fight against inflation, the Federal Reserve could — just maybe — be done raising its policy rate. History shows that monetary policy pauses mark great buying opportunities for US stocks, but there are several key caveats to bear in mind this time.
The Supreme Court May Quash Biden's Student Loan Forgiveness: Here's What Borrowers Should Do
For millions of borrowers, student loan forgiveness will mean the difference between significant relief and ongoing payments. If you’re among them, the question is… what next?
What Happens in the Banking Sector Won’t Stay There
The sudden loss of confidence by depositors in some US banks is causing many to focus on the scope for financial contagion and the needed policy responses. What should not be overlooked is the other, and slower, contagion channel in play — that involving enablers of economic growth...
Banking Stresses the Outlook
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
Confessions of a Currency Manager
Predicting spot exchanges is tricky, but there are still ways of adding value in currency markets, including through a disciplined approach we call currency factor investing.
The Consequences of Credit Suisse
The demise of a major bank illustrates the global tensions in the financial sector.
Favorable Current Strategy - Yield and Duration
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
From A Deep Dive Into The Banking Sector
Beyond the near-term turmoil, there may need to be a re-evaluation of the regional banking model in the United States, according to a recent panel hosted by Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Consumer Confidence Increased Slightly in March
The Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Index ® this morning, with the headline number coming in at 104.2, an increase of 0.8 from the upwardly revised final reading of 103.4 in February. This month's reading is better than the Investing.com forecast of 101.0.
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.2% in January, Beats Forecast
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for January. U.S. house prices increased by 0.2% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 5.3% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the real index is down 0.2% in January and down 0.3% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
The Fundamental Logic of Annuities with Lifetime Income
A simple annuity can effectively replace bond holdings in a retirement plan that are earmarked to meet the lifetime spending goal. The question is why should a retiree hold any bonds in the portion of their asset base designed to cover ongoing retirement spending goals?
The Fed Waffles
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday.
Silicon Valley Bank’s Failure Highlights Systemically Combustible Conditions
Many have questioned the importance of the recent bank failures.
First Quarter 2023 Economic Review and Forecast
The economic signals and a host of geopolitical risks confronting investors suggest that 2023 could be as challenging as 20022 for both stocks and bonds.
The Dilemma That Isn’t: Bonds versus Bond Funds
Should investors build their own portfolios of bonds, or buy shares of bond funds? Is there an economic difference or just one of appearance? Are directly held bonds safer because they mature, and you get your money back? How should one decide?
On Quitting Early, the Decumulation Problem and Living to 100
Annie Duke, once one of the best female poker players in the world, helped me understand why people work longer than they need to. This got me thinking about the decumulation problem more broadly and planning to live to age 100.
Regulation Can’t Prevent the Next Financial Crisis
For all of you following the banking crises in the US and Europe, and asking why this is all happening again, I have bad news: Regardless of what laws are passed, or which regulations are issued, banking crises will recur — and not infrequently.
The Pros Fail to Meet the Moment With Bond ETFs
The pitch for an actively managed bond exchange-traded fund can be compelling, especially when there’s market turmoil and uncertainty
The Fed Faces Its Trilemma
The fallout from SVB will make the Fed's job more difficult.
Market and Economic Dynamics to Keep an Eye On
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
From Anomaly to Opportunity: High Yields on Short Bonds
Stock and bond markets were shaken by the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe.
“Not QE” Puts Fed Between A “Rock And A Hard Place”
“QE” or “Quantitative Easing” has been the bull’s “siren song” of the last decade, but will “Not QE” be the same?
Rare Opportunity To Earn Monthly Dividend Income At A Reasonable Price
Realty Income, A.K.A. the Monthly Dividend Company, has rarely been attractively valued since the spring of 2010. However, rising interest rates have brought the price down to fair value.
Fed Weighs Stubborn Inflation Against Banking System Stress
Slower credit growth may curtail broader U.S. economic growth, taking pressure off the Federal Reserve.
Recession Odds Rising
Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?
Is This The End Of The Petrodollar?
The U.S. dollar remains the world’s top reserve currency for now, though its share of global central banks’ official holdings has slipped in the past 20 years. By contrast, the yuan’s share of official holdings has more than doubled since 2016.
Fed Hikes Rates as Bank Worries Spread Globally
As interest rates show signs of peaking, gold prices are nearing new all-time highs.
Sinology: Opportunity and Risk
China’s economy is in the early stages of a gradual, consumer-led recovery. In this issue of Sinology, Andy Rothman outlines why China’s opportunities outweigh risks.
How Is the SVB and Credit Suisse Crisis Affecting the US and European Banking Industry?
Following recent efforts by central banks and regulators to alleviate the banking crisis, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Lukasz Kalwak discuss their thoughts on the implications and outlook for the banking industries in the United States and Europe.
Growth in Real Money Supply is What is Important for Taming Inflation, and for the Fed
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Echoes Of '08? Don't Bank On It
The GMO Focused Equity team has evaluated banks in the context of our Quality Strategy for 20 years, using both quantitative and fundamental analysis to invest in high-quality banks with healthy financials and in our opinion responsible management practices.
What are JGBs Trying to Tell Us?
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
The Crucial Questions
To help understand the current market volatility arising from the collapse of banks in the United States and Europe, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover provides his answers to three crucial questions.
Markets Again Under Pressure
Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.
Gold Bulls Look to Push through $2,000
Gold prices surged to test the $2,000/oz level early this week before retreating ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Market Focus Moves from the Fed to Financial Crisis
Yesterday, the Fed completed its regular meeting and announced that it would increase interest rates by 25 bps, or a quarter percentage point.
Phase Two of the Fed Follies
Lower interest rates and more liquidity are the keys to boosting confidence in the financial sector, but they impede the Fed's ability to fight inflation.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: Activity Stayed Flat
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at 0, unchanged from last month's figure. The future outlook came in at 3, up 2 from last month.
What are JGBs Trying to Tell Us?
Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below.
Don’t Bank On It
Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.
March Fed Rate Hike: Sometimes the Moments That Challenge Us the Most Define Us
In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting.
Some Thoughts on Banks
Read our latest insight where Dan Suzuki explains what investors need to know about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.
Fed Hikes Quarter Point, Signals It Still Expects Higher Rates
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled it’s not finished hiking, despite the risk of exacerbating a bank crisis that’s roiled global markets.
Alternative Investments Outlook Post-SVB
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape.
The Growth Slowdown Is Not Over Yet
Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses.
Stocks Climb Ahead of Fed Meeting
U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.
Fed Caught Between Inflation and Bank Crisis
All eyes in the financial and economic world will be laser-focused Wednesday on the Federal Reserve as Chair Jerome Powell tries to balance his fight against inflation against a sudden banking crisis.
Morgan Stanley Turns ‘Outright Bullish’ on Asian Growth Stocks
Easing financial conditions globally have made Morgan Stanley “outright bullish” on growth stocks in Asia and emerging markets versus their value peers.
GLP-Backed Fund to Raise $100 Million for Asian Fintech Deals
A Singapore-based fintech investment firm is close to raising $100 million to back finance and blockchain startups in China and Southeast Asia.
Stocks Are Shrugging Off Bank Woes With Help From Hedge Funds
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm?
Biggest Fear for Trillion-Dollar Funds Is Missing Next Rally
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally.
Funding Unprofitable Growth
We have been reminding everyone that we believe we are unwinding a financial euphoria episode that Charlie Munger called the biggest of his career, “because of the totality of it.”
Banking, Inflation, and the Fed: Where Do We Go From Here?
Banking turmoil continues to rattle the global markets and investor confidence.
US Studies Ways to Insure All Bank Deposits If Crisis Grows
US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis.
Incremental Progress Emerging in the Banking Sector Fallout
CIO Larry Adam outlines the positive events that are outweighing negative developments and looks at dynamics to focus on in the week ahead.
Existing-Home Sales Surge in February, Ending 12-Month Streak of Declines
This morning's release of the February existing home sales showed that sales surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million units from the previous month's 4.00 million, ending the 12-month streak of monthly declines. The latest number represents a 14.5% month-over-month increase, its largest since July 2020 and well above the Investing.com forecast of 5%. With that being said, existing home sales are down 22.6% compared to one year ago.
Edge of the Edge
The simplest thing that can be said about current financial market and banking conditions is this: the unwinding of this Fed-induced, yield-seeking speculative bubble is proceeding as one would expect, and it’s not over by a longshot.
Keeping Your Bond Perspective: Declines, Rallies and the Role of Bonds
Help end investors understand that bailing out of bonds could mean locking in losses and missing a potential recovery.
A Difficult Job Becomes Even More Difficult
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Bank Crisis Survivors Remember How Fast the Dominoes Can Fall
Steve Chiavarone doesn’t want to scare anyone, but what he remembers most from the last banking crisis was how sure most people were that it wouldn’t happen.
US Economy Has Investor Backing as Bank Risks Grow
Markets have been trading as if the end of the world is at hand – but what most participants see, behind the recent financial turmoil and contagion fears, is a still-strong US economy, the MLIV Pulse survey shows.
Two Sides of Healthcare, One Strong Investment Case
Portfolio Manager Andy Acker explains why the healthcare sector could offer an attractive combination of defense and growth in today’s market.
UBS to Buy Credit Suisse in $3.3 Billion Deal to End Crisis
UBS Group AG agreed to buy Credit Suisse Group AG in a historic, government-brokered deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that had started to spread across global financial markets.
Heading Toward a National Bank?
The late great Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was often in dissent in key legal cases during his long career.
Sustainable Investing: Opportunistically Managing Risk
Robust risk management is essential for fixed income investors. In his latest commentary, Marcus Moore explains why our sustainable investing team considers ESG factors as material business risks, similar to the traditional risks they also analyze.
The Fed’s Got Inflation Backwards
Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
A Multi-Asset Perspective on Recent Bank Turmoil: Don’t Lose Sight of the Macro Story
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
Riskless at Age 104
A TIPS is risky in the short term and riskless in the long run, which is precisely the opposite of, and complementary to, a T-bill, which is riskless in the short term but, because of reinvestment rate volatility, risky in the long run.
Bank Runs. The First Sign The Fed “Broke Something.”
With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, questions of potential “bank runs” spread among regional banks.
Consensus View Of “No Recession.” Could It Be Wrong?
Could the consensus view of a “no recession” scenario be wrong? As portfolio managers, this is the question we ask ourselves daily.
Another Unstable Finger
For years I’ve used a sandpile metaphor to describe complex systems like banking. Keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche.
Pension Reform Showdown: Will The U.S. Follow France’s Bold Retirement Age Changes?
Sixty-six million Americans currently receive monthly benefits from Social Security, which, if nothing changes, is expected to be insolvent by 2035 at the latest. It’s time for Americans to take a greater role in their own retirement planning.
Could Bank Runs Lead to a Run on Gold & Silver?
Fears of bank runs precipitating a broader financial crisis helped spark a surge in bullion buying this week.
Silicon Valley: The Consequences of a Bank's Failure
The full story of SVB is still unfolding, but we offer some initial reactions.
The Professor's Portfolio
My “five-step investment process” provides an ongoing systematic framework for making portfolio decisions, and further incorporating financial planning and tax considerations into overall portfolio construction.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 17, 2023
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 17, 2023 at 3.39%, the two-year note ended at 3.81%, and the 30-year at 3.60%.
The Fed Was Too Late on SVB Even Though It Saw Problem After Problem
Just over a year before Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse threatened a generation of technology startups and their backers, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco appointed a more senior team of examiners to assess the firm. They started calling out problem after problem.
How First Republic Bank Received a $30 Billion Lifeline
Jamie Dimon and Janet Yellen were on a call Tuesday, when she floated an idea: What if the nation’s largest lenders deposited billions of dollars into First Republic Bank, the latest firm getting nudged toward the brink by a depositor panic
Banking Sector Uncertainty Keeps Pressure on Stocks
U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.