The Fed’s move towards more restrictive policy has rattled bonds and put equities on the brink of a bear market. But what is priced in and where do we go from here? In this month’s webinar, we discuss equity and fixed income valuations and examine how Innovator ETFs can help advisors hedge market risk and capitalize on opportunities.
New research shows that the significant outperformance of ESG-driven investing over the last decade was due to a sharp increase in concern among investors for climate-related issues. Whether that outperformance continues will depend on even more heightened concerns over the environment.
Incorporating a wide variety of portfolio risk mitigation techniques is essential to address unforeseeable macroeconomic challenges.
An allegation has been floated recently that inflation has been exacerbated by corporate greed. A neologism has even been coined for it, “greedflation.” The claim has been backed up by anecdotal and empirical data and it has been rebutted by anecdotal and empirical data. I will not try to answer the question of whether this allegation is true, but how its truth should be determined.
If I had a time machine, 1972 isn’t the destination I would choose for Britain — not with so much inflation, strike action and strife just around the corner.
All told, the world’s 500 richest people lost $1.4 trillion in the first half of 2022, a dizzying decline that marks the steepest six-month drop ever for the global billionaire class.
Treasuries began the second half of the year on the front foot Friday as concerns continued to mount that Federal Reserve rate hikes will lead to a recession.
The first half of 2022 brought a brutal selloff to emerging markets, but also fueled hope for the second half: stocks, bonds and currencies have begun to outperform their peers in the US.
Things can only get better for the $4 trillion muni market in the second half of the year, according to Wall Street strategists.
No doubt about it, this has been a very challenging market environment to navigate, and we look to be in for more of the same. The Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy, and the longer the conflict in Ukraine persists, the longer we’ll likely feel the pressure from elevated gas prices.
Let’s start with a basic question. If you have unused property—cash or anything else—why would you lend it to another party?
Inflation, China, Russia, Central Banks, Labor, Recession: It's been quite a year thus far.
It took me a long, long time to write The End of Indexing.
Global risk assets were at the epicenter of a selling spree Friday as investors kicked off the second half of the year with recession concern front and center.
In an inflation-lashed world where bonds are posting record losses, Wall Street issuers are betting investors hungry for income will instead lavish their millions on ETFs that ride stocks in order to deliver payouts.
How quickly the narrative has shifted back and forth in the money and bond markets.
Valid until the market close on July 29, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed June with a monthly loss of 8.39% after a micro-fractional gain of 0.01% in May. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
With consumer behavior under a magnifying glass, Portfolio Manager Jennifer Thomas, shares her assessment of the US consumer.
Last Thursday, Elizabeth Warren expressed skepticism about the Fed tightening monetary policy, saying it would make people poor.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Bitcoin is on track for its worst quarter in more than a decade, as hawkish central banks and a string of high-profile crypto blowups hammer sentiment.
It’s official: Chinese equities are once again in vogue, after months of regulatory crackdowns, deleveraging and stringent virus curbs wiped trillions of dollars off benchmark gauges.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for May was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.59% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 6.35% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 4.69%, well above the Fed's 2% target rate.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 29, 2022, at 3.10%, the 2-year note ended at 3.06%, and the 30-year at 3.22%.
Now is the time to engage in risk management to retain your competitive advantage once the economy emerges from the slowdown.
A pair of exchange-traded funds that seek to capitalize on the tendency for US stocks to log the bulk of their gains when the cash market is shut are set to launch Tuesday.
Home-price growth in the US started to slow in April.
The Federal Reserve was in denial about inflation and moved too slowly in trying to quell rising prices. That’s now put it on a trajectory to create a recession, if it hasn’t already done so.
The good news is that yields in US Treasury securities may be near their peak. The bad news is that makes the recession I’ve been forecasting since February more likely.
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility.
We examine key themes from our review of advisor fixed income portfolios over the past year.
After the steep drop in prices during the first half of this year, yields on many corporate bond investments are at or near 12-year highs.
We've told people to watch the M2 measure of money in order to understand whether inflation will cool down or heat up.
As I have indicated in recent weeks, I don’t really understand why the media has turned so bearish on the US economy lately, and why so many forecasters are predicting we’re either just about to enter a potentially nasty recession or we’re already in one.
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
It came as a surprise when I found the annual report of the New Zealand SuperFund. While no one could fault it for sticking with passive investments, it chose a different path, with stunning results.
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Many of my clients or their kids will face repaying student loans. And given the inflationary environment and related rising interest rates, some of them will need to make careful choices about prioritizing their payback plans.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
Orders placed with US factories for durable goods rose more than expected in May, suggesting business investment so far remains firm even in the face of rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the economy.
It’s easy to be carried away: Top banking regulators are hungry for the efficiency, profitability and better service that pan-European banks could deliver.
Surging mortgage rates have finally cooled off the housing market. The cooldown, though, is coming unevenly, accentuating differences between the existing home market and new construction.
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees two possible paths for the economy and monetary policy over the next year: With some luck, inflation will cool with the help of more supply. And if that fails, the Fed won’t hesitate to impose a more painful solution.
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Another Federal Reserve official has lined up with those who favor following last week’s 75 basis-point interest-rate increase with the same again next month to curb rampant inflation.
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
The varied responses of individual countries to global inflationary pressures have contributed to elevated real-rate differentials between developed and emerging markets.
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports raising interest rates by 75 basis points again in July and following that with a few more half-point hikes.
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Bonds have been whispering in the ears of stock investors all year. Now they’re starting to shout.
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
Register today to join the Delaware Funds by Macquarie® Fixed Income team, as they discuss credit market valuations, the current market environment, their outlook for the remainder of 2022, and how to find value, specifically in high yield securities including bank loans. The discussion will include an analysis of credit fundamentals and technicals, how the US Federal Reserve is impacting credit markets, and how to look for attractive valuations.
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a fourth month in May, receding to the lowest level in nearly two years and underscoring how high prices and a surge in mortgage rates have stifled demand.
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
If you’re still holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing in the US economy, abandon it.
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
The yield of the U.S. high yield (HY) market, currently at 8.4%, has risen by over 420 basis points since the start of the year.
Lifetime income solutions are high on the wish lists of defined contribution (DC) plan participants, with the certainty of a guaranteed lifetime income stream ranking as the top feature in our surveys over the past decade.
Reg BI turns two on June 30th. It was supposed to help investors better understand how advisors and brokers differ and have BDs meet a “best interest” standard based on fiduciary principles. It turns out that Reg BI is doing the opposite.
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
Here’s how to position yourself for a lifetime of relationships by creating better touchpoints with a client’s family.
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
US builders completed more apartments in large multi-unit buildings than ever before.
Fixed Income
Tackling restrictive Fed policy, inflation and a recessionary sentiment with Defined Outcome ETFs
The Fed’s move towards more restrictive policy has rattled bonds and put equities on the brink of a bear market. But what is priced in and where do we go from here? In this month’s webinar, we discuss equity and fixed income valuations and examine how Innovator ETFs can help advisors hedge market risk and capitalize on opportunities.
Don’t Count on ESG Outperformance
New research shows that the significant outperformance of ESG-driven investing over the last decade was due to a sharp increase in concern among investors for climate-related issues. Whether that outperformance continues will depend on even more heightened concerns over the environment.
Prepared For Anything
Incorporating a wide variety of portfolio risk mitigation techniques is essential to address unforeseeable macroeconomic challenges.
Is “Greedflation” Real – and How Should that Question be Answered?
An allegation has been floated recently that inflation has been exacerbated by corporate greed. A neologism has even been coined for it, “greedflation.” The claim has been backed up by anecdotal and empirical data and it has been rebutted by anecdotal and empirical data. I will not try to answer the question of whether this allegation is true, but how its truth should be determined.
Brexit Has the UK Traveling the Wrong Way in Time
If I had a time machine, 1972 isn’t the destination I would choose for Britain — not with so much inflation, strike action and strife just around the corner.
Richest Billionaires Lose $1.4 Trillion in Worst Half-Year Ever
All told, the world’s 500 richest people lost $1.4 trillion in the first half of 2022, a dizzying decline that marks the steepest six-month drop ever for the global billionaire class.
Recession Fears Bolster Treasuries, Short-End Yields Plunge
Treasuries began the second half of the year on the front foot Friday as concerns continued to mount that Federal Reserve rate hikes will lead to a recession.
Historic Rout in Emerging Markets Sows Seeds of Outperformance
The first half of 2022 brought a brutal selloff to emerging markets, but also fueled hope for the second half: stocks, bonds and currencies have begun to outperform their peers in the US.
Wall Street Says the Worst Is Over for Municipal Bonds in 2022
Things can only get better for the $4 trillion muni market in the second half of the year, according to Wall Street strategists.
Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide
No doubt about it, this has been a very challenging market environment to navigate, and we look to be in for more of the same. The Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy, and the longer the conflict in Ukraine persists, the longer we’ll likely feel the pressure from elevated gas prices.
Time Has a Price
Let’s start with a basic question. If you have unused property—cash or anything else—why would you lend it to another party?
Mid-Year Themes
Inflation, China, Russia, Central Banks, Labor, Recession: It's been quite a year thus far.
The End of Indexing
It took me a long, long time to write The End of Indexing.
Ditch Risk Is the Second Half Mantra as Recession Spooks Traders
Global risk assets were at the epicenter of a selling spree Friday as investors kicked off the second half of the year with recession concern front and center.
Existential Crisis in Bonds Fuels Wall Street’s Income ETF Boom
In an inflation-lashed world where bonds are posting record losses, Wall Street issuers are betting investors hungry for income will instead lavish their millions on ETFs that ride stocks in order to deliver payouts.
Looking for Recession Clues in All the Wrong Places?
How quickly the narrative has shifted back and forth in the money and bond markets.
Moving Averages: S&P Down 8.4% in June
Valid until the market close on July 29, 2022.
The S&P 500 closed June with a monthly loss of 8.39% after a micro-fractional gain of 0.01% in May. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and Vanguard All-World Index ex-US ETF (VEU), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "cash" signal.
Taking the Consumer’s Temperature
With consumer behavior under a magnifying glass, Portfolio Manager Jennifer Thomas, shares her assessment of the US consumer.
The Fed Is Actually Fixing Inequality, Unfortunately
Last Thursday, Elizabeth Warren expressed skepticism about the Fed tightening monetary policy, saying it would make people poor.
Somber Summer
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Bitcoin Set for Biggest Quarterly Drop in More Than a Decade
Bitcoin is on track for its worst quarter in more than a decade, as hawkish central banks and a string of high-profile crypto blowups hammer sentiment.
China’s World-Beating Stock Rally Is Forecast to Strengthen More
It’s official: Chinese equities are once again in vogue, after months of regulatory crackdowns, deleveraging and stringent virus curbs wiped trillions of dollars off benchmark gauges.
PCE Price Index: May Headline at 6.35% YoY
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for May was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.59% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 6.35% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 4.69%, well above the Fed's 2% target rate.
Treasury Snapshot: 2-10 Spread at 0.04%
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 29, 2022, at 3.10%, the 2-year note ended at 3.06%, and the 30-year at 3.22%.
No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession
Now is the time to engage in risk management to retain your competitive advantage once the economy emerges from the slowdown.
ETFs Offering Way to Bet on Overnight Equity Gains Set to Launch
A pair of exchange-traded funds that seek to capitalize on the tendency for US stocks to log the bulk of their gains when the cash market is shut are set to launch Tuesday.
US Home-Price Growth Decelerates for First Time Since 2021
Home-price growth in the US started to slow in April.
Time to Start Preparing for a Recession Is Now, Rob Arnott Says
The Federal Reserve was in denial about inflation and moved too slowly in trying to quell rising prices. That’s now put it on a trajectory to create a recession, if it hasn’t already done so.
Bond Market Rebound Is Bad News for the Economy
The good news is that yields in US Treasury securities may be near their peak. The bad news is that makes the recession I’ve been forecasting since February more likely.
2022 Global Market Outlook – Q3 update: Fear of the known
Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility.
Key Takeaways From Our 2021 Advisor Fixed Income Portfolio Review
We examine key themes from our review of advisor fixed income portfolios over the past year.
2022 Mid-Year Corporate Credit Outlook
After the steep drop in prices during the first half of this year, yields on many corporate bond investments are at or near 12-year highs.
The Monetary Surge Continues to Ebb
We've told people to watch the M2 measure of money in order to understand whether inflation will cool down or heat up.
Are We Talking Ourselves Into A Recession?
As I have indicated in recent weeks, I don’t really understand why the media has turned so bearish on the US economy lately, and why so many forecasters are predicting we’re either just about to enter a potentially nasty recession or we’re already in one.
Don't Fight the Trend
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
High-Yielding High-Quality Dividend Growth Stock Benefiting from Rising Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates.
More “Stagflation-Lite”, Moderately Positive On Equities Ex Europe, Still Negative On Global Bonds
Our mid-March meeting’s “unenthusiastic” stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme “Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recession.”
3 Charts Showing Optimism For The Global Shipping Industry
Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe.
How a New Zealand Superfund “Beat the Market”
It came as a surprise when I found the annual report of the New Zealand SuperFund. While no one could fault it for sticking with passive investments, it chose a different path, with stunning results.
Consumer Confidence Down Again in June
The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May.
Dealing with Student Loans, Rising Interest Rates, and Inflation
Many of my clients or their kids will face repaying student loans. And given the inflationary environment and related rising interest rates, some of them will need to make careful choices about prioritizing their payback plans.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.6% in April
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.3% in April and up 8.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
A $2 Trillion Free-Fall Rattles Crypto to the Core
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
Oil Price Reversions – The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting.
Re-discovering the Market’s Sweet Spot
There’s a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps.
Russia Slips Into Historic Default as Sanctions Muddy Next Steps
Russia defaulted on its external sovereign bonds for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors.
A Deep Analytic Perspective of the 2022 Market Correction
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
US Durable Goods Orders Exceed Forecast in Broad Advance
Orders placed with US factories for durable goods rose more than expected in May, suggesting business investment so far remains firm even in the face of rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the economy.
Should European Banking Really Be More Like US Banking?
It’s easy to be carried away: Top banking regulators are hungry for the efficiency, profitability and better service that pan-European banks could deliver.
Homebuilders Still Find Plenty of Demand in a Cooling Market
Surging mortgage rates have finally cooled off the housing market. The cooldown, though, is coming unevenly, accentuating differences between the existing home market and new construction.
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
Powell’s Path to 2% Inflation Needs Luck or, Failing That, Pain
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees two possible paths for the economy and monetary policy over the next year: With some luck, inflation will cool with the help of more supply. And if that fails, the Fed won’t hesitate to impose a more painful solution.
Market Is Shredding All the Time-Tested Ways to Chart Its Course
Options insurance. Hedging with Treasuries. Using sentiment to pick a bottom. The things that have lessened the pain of past equity selloffs are coming up short this time around.
Fed Dove Daly Joins Officials Open to 75 Basis-Point July Hike
Another Federal Reserve official has lined up with those who favor following last week’s 75 basis-point interest-rate increase with the same again next month to curb rampant inflation.
A New “Pink Tide” in Latin America?
Latin America tilted further left this week as Colombian voters elected Gustavo Petro as president. Come August, the former Bogotá mayor and member of the M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of leftist leaders in a political shift some are likening to the “pink tide” of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 16: Fed Watch: A Deep Dive into 75
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
Bond Traders Are Reading the Federal Reserve Wrong Again
It may be a cliché, but the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” worked well for investors during the long period when the US central bank was suppressing interest rates and seeking to boost asset prices. This year, not so much.
Oil Rallies After a Reading on Inflation Expectations Eased
Oil jumped after a reading on US consumer inflation expectations was revised lower, adding optimism to crude’s demand outlook.
Remote Work Could Save Firms $206 Billion and Ease Pressure on the Fed
The rise of remote work could make the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation a bit easier, while saving employers more than $200 billion, according to new research.
Taking Stock: Q3 2022 Equity Market Outlook
What to do in equity portfolios at the midyear point? Fundamental Equities CIO Tony DeSpirto assesses the backdrop and identifies three favored sectors.
Assessing Inflation’s Effects Across Emerging Markets
The varied responses of individual countries to global inflationary pressures have contributed to elevated real-rate differentials between developed and emerging markets.
How to Invest in China Responsibly
Investors in China can positively influence the behavior of Chinese companies and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in the long run.
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies?
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
A Realistic Framing of the Progress in Artificial Intelligence
Let’s face it—we love exciting announcements. Why talk about the small technical improvements of a given artificial intelligence (AI) system when you can prognosticate about the coming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI)? However, focusing too much on AGI risks missing many incremental improvements in the space along the way.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of May 31, 2021, the 10-year note was 233 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey: Further Slowing in June
The latest index came in at 12, down from 23 last month, indicating slowed expansion in June. The future outlook fell to 10. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Stocks Adding to Weekly Gains
U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.
Fed’s Bowman Backs Raising Rates 75 Basis Points in July
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports raising interest rates by 75 basis points again in July and following that with a few more half-point hikes.
Stocks Sniffing A Bear Market Rally
A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets.
Wall Street Faces Billion-Dollar Losses on Sinking Buyout Debt
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
Oil Is in Another Bear Market - and for Good Reason
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Stocks Are Losing the Race With Bonds in Era of Tightening Fed
Bonds have been whispering in the ears of stock investors all year. Now they’re starting to shout.
NFIB Signals A Recession Is Coming…Again
NFIB signals a recession is coming…again.
Heating and Cooling
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
Reaching for Resilience
The war in Ukraine has widened global geopolitical fractures, and we see risks of deglobalization and more fragmented capital markets over the secular horizon.
Credit in Focus: Finding Value in High Yield and Bank Loans
Register today to join the Delaware Funds by Macquarie® Fixed Income team, as they discuss credit market valuations, the current market environment, their outlook for the remainder of 2022, and how to find value, specifically in high yield securities including bank loans. The discussion will include an analysis of credit fundamentals and technicals, how the US Federal Reserve is impacting credit markets, and how to look for attractive valuations.
Don’t Cry for the Most Wealthy
Over the last four years, we have argued that the glamour monopoly technology companies have a low multiplier effect in the U.S. economy
Sales of Previously Owned Homes Fall to an Almost Two-Year Low
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a fourth month in May, receding to the lowest level in nearly two years and underscoring how high prices and a surge in mortgage rates have stifled demand.
Recession Calls Grow; Mnuchin on Inflation Threat: Qatar Update
Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
The US Economy Is Headed for a Hard Landing
If you’re still holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing in the US economy, abandon it.
Inflation Ate Your Free Lunch, But You’re Still Better Off
Believe it or not, we live in the best of times. It’s been a crazy few decades, with a pandemic, rising inequality, slowing growth and productivity, and major changes in the economy.
Crude Oil Buckles as Recession Angst Rattles Commodity Investors
Oil plunged for the second time in a few days on concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.
What Does 8% Yield Pay For?
The yield of the U.S. high yield (HY) market, currently at 8.4%, has risen by over 420 basis points since the start of the year.
Lifetime Income Fees vs. Costs: Look Beneath the Tip of the Iceberg
Lifetime income solutions are high on the wish lists of defined contribution (DC) plan participants, with the certainty of a guaranteed lifetime income stream ranking as the top feature in our surveys over the past decade.
Reg BI’s Unhappy Second Birthday
Reg BI turns two on June 30th. It was supposed to help investors better understand how advisors and brokers differ and have BDs meet a “best interest” standard based on fiduciary principles. It turns out that Reg BI is doing the opposite.
Respect the Bear
We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009.
Five Touchpoints to Build Family Relationships
Here’s how to position yourself for a lifetime of relationships by creating better touchpoints with a client’s family.
Existing-Home Sales: Down 3.4% in May
This morning's release of the May Existing-Home Sales showed that sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units from the previous month's 5.6 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% decrease from the previous month and a 8.6% decrease YoY.
Big, Boxy Apartment Buildings Are Multiplying Faster Than Ever
US builders completed more apartments in large multi-unit buildings than ever before.