Bond traders seeking support for bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month will closely watch Friday’s US employment report for November.
US Treasuries fell on Monday as traders awaited a hefty week of economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials that will likely determine expectations for the central bank’s policy decision later this month.
The bond-market selloff unleashed by Donald Trump’s presidential victory last week ended almost as quickly as it began.
Investors who’ve been hedging against a deeper selloff in US Treasuries are preparing for volatility as Friday’s hurricane- and strike-tinged US employment report offers final clues ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision.
Bond investors are going on defense as the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cutting path turns more uncertain.
The “no landing” scenario – a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates – had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months.
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Traders slashed their bets on the pace of future Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts after September US employment data blew past estimates and signaled a robust hiring trend.
Jerome Powell delivered exactly what traders up and down Wall Street had long hoped for: A big interest-rate cut that would justify this year’s steep rally in stocks and bonds as the era of tight monetary policy finally began to reverse.
Bond traders who struggled to predict how high the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates are finding the way down just as vexing.
US Treasury yields edged higher after resilient economic reports prompted traders to slightly trim their expectations for the scope of Federal Reserve easing this year.
It’s been the ultimate no-brainer for more than a year: Park your money in super-safe Treasury bills, earn yields of more than 5%, rinse and repeat. Or as billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach put it last October, “T-bill and chill.”
Treasuries rallied after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole cemented expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates next month.
Chair Jerome Powell will usher in the next chapter in the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle on Friday, when he’s expected to set the table for an interest-rate cut while reassuring investors that policymakers can stave off a sharp economic slowdown.
Bond investors pared back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts slightly as data showed US inflation ebbed further in July, reinforcing the case for a quarter-point reduction next month.
A major rally in the $27 trillion Treasury market is laying bare anxiety that the US economy is sliding into recession and the Federal Reserve will need to start aggressively cutting interest rates.
Investors flocked to the US Treasury’s monthly sale of two-year notes in a powerful demonstration of faith in Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts beginning this year.
Financial giants from Goldman Sachs & Co. to Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. are taking a fresh look at how a Donald Trump victory in November could play out in the bond market.
Softening in the measure of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve highlights a slowing economy that’s upping the risk of a policy error by the central bank, Mohamed El-Erian said.
It took much of the first half of the year for Treasury bond investors to fall in line with a Federal Reserve signaling higher-for-longer interest rates. Now, as they weigh the timing of a second-half pivot, they must also contend with potential wild-card risks from a hotly contested presidential race.
Bond traders loaded back up on interest-rate-cut bets — and even the pushback coming out of the Federal Reserve did little to shake their conviction.
Bond traders who have come to terms with the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates through 2024 are looking toward this week’s Federal Reserve meeting for clues on how to game out 2025 and beyond.
Stronger-than-expected US May jobs data closes the door on a July Federal Reserve rate cut, Mohamed El-Erian said.
US government bonds rallied Friday, adding to their monthly gain, after benign inflation data kept alive predictions that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once this year.
For the first time in nearly a generation, fixed income is living up to its name.
Demand for Treasuries is holding up as the US government floods the market with more than $180 billion of new debt this week, a testament to the appeal of high yields for shorter-term notes.
Bond traders priced in less monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve this year — and briefly set the odds of a first move in June to less than 50% — after a gauge of US manufacturing activity showed expansion for the first time since 2022.
Bond traders are cautiously reloading wagers that burned them just weeks ago as the Federal Reserve and key global peers finally appear set to begin reducing interest rates as soon as June.
Bond traders have plenty on their plates the next couple days, even after they absorb a crucial US inflation reading that stands to shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy for months to come.
This week, the US bond market faces its own Super Tuesday of sorts: the release of fresh inflation data investors will use to predict when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates.
Treasuries held modest gains ahead of remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and key labor-market data, which are set to test bond investors’ conviction about interest-rate cuts in the US.
Traders surprised by this year’s painful rise in bond yields are still looking to snap up US debt given their ongoing assumption the US economy will eventually slow in 2024.
Pacific Investment Management Co. is warning that US fiscal profligacy threatens to drag the Treasury market back to 1980s, a time when bond vigilantes demanded far higher compensation to own longer-dated bonds.
Bond traders are finally heeding one of the market’s oldest lessons: Don’t fight the Fed.
The US government sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds at a lower-than-anticipated yield, soothing investor nerves about demand for longer-dated debt.
The US government sold a record $42 billion of 10-year notes Wednesday at a lower-than-anticipated yield, soothing investor nerves after a recent rout and indicating confidence that the Federal Reserve will eventually cut interest rates.
Bond investors, still reeling from Treasuries’ worst two days in more than a year, are preparing for a new test on Wednesday when the government holds its biggest-ever sale of 10-year debt.
The US economy is testing bond traders’ faith that the Federal Reserve will deliver a series of interest-rate cuts this year.
Jerome Powell delivered a clear message to traders eager for the central bank to start slashing interest rates: Not so fast.
Trading in bonds these days means having to put up with more frequent market gyrations — and that’s just fine with big investors like Pimco and BlackRock Inc.
Bond traders looking for something to jolt the $27 trillion Treasury market out of its recent rut will probably still be left waiting for answers, even after a busy week packed with a Federal Reserve meeting, the government’s quarterly debt-sale plans and a slew of economic data.
Bond traders are growing convinced that US Treasury yields are on the brink of returning to the way they’ve traded for most of their existence — it’s the how, why and when of the normalization that keeps financial markets bouncing around.
Bond traders are growing more convinced that US yields are heading lower as they bet on a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, yet the path to cheaper borrowing costs is set to be extremely bumpy.
Bond traders shrugged off higher-than-anticipated inflation readings for December, pricing in a larger total amount of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year beginning in May.
Traders betting on a 2024 bond rally are unfazed by the recent pullback, seeing it as a chance to seize on elevated yields before the Federal Reserve starts driving down interest rates.
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder said that market expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in March are likely too early.
US stock and bond prices will see modest gains as the Federal Reserve pivots to cutting interest rates next year, though the easing may not be as aggressive as markets are now expecting.
The bond market’s bold bet on US interest-rate cuts is set for its biggest test yet.
Bond traders who powered a ferocious rally in the $26 trillion US Treasury market are about to find out if they’ve gotten ahead of themselves.
A torrid bond market rally shows traders are convinced the Federal Reserve’s rate-rising cycle is over. The debate now turns to when central bankers start cutting, and by how much.
In a year in which little has gone right in the US bond market, November turned out to be a month for the record books.
