Join the experts at CIBC & Precidian Investments for a product due diligence session exploring their ADRhedged ETF (ADRH).
Valid until the market close on September 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%. The economy remains resilient and the consumer is strong.
Anthropic PBC’s IPO is casting a long shadow over companies’ US listing plans, as they try to find room for their deals to grab attention after the Sept. 7 Labor Day holiday.
Advisors did not slow down on exchange-traded funds in the second quarter. They added more of them, and pointed the money somewhere new, according to AdvizorPro’s Q2 2026 RIA ETF Trends report.
Treasury’s pivot toward long-bond buybacks gives duration buyers their first clear green light in months — and the November midterms may add a second leg.
We often hear that consumption accounts for roughly 70% of the US economy and that, as long as consumers keep spending, the economy will continue to grow. There is certainly some truth to that.
The yield on the 10-year note finished August 28, 2026 at 4.73% while the 2-year note ended at 4.34%.
This week, our Portfolio Manager Olga Bezrokov sees tentative signs of improvement emerging in Europe, although she cautions that the recovery remains uneven across countries and sectors.
Convertible bond investors chasing exposure to the artificial intelligence boom are giving up some of the protection they would normally demand, pushing the market toward levels of risk-taking last seen during the pandemic.
A chorus of investors is urging Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to express a strong determination to deal with high inflation to boost the long end of the Treasury market.
For an asset often designated as a store of value, gold volatility has been especially apparent this year. After starting off the year with a high-paced record-setting run that lifted the metal to nearly $5,600 an ounce, including a 13% rally in January alone, momentum quickly faded as tensions with Iran ratcheted higher.
Investors are used to a swirling mass of scary headlines and geopolitical and monetary risk. Yen carry trade and yield concerns, however, may have some feeling of trepidation. Despite those risks, equities continue to appeal.
In markets that have faced multiple sources of uncertainty this year, small-cap stocks have quietly moved to the front of the pack. Unlike the S&P 500, where performance has been heavily influenced by changing AI narratives, smaller companies have seen earnings improve across a broader set of sectors that are more closely tied to the overall US economy.
Markets are largely reducing expectations for a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, and we agree. July’s weak jobs report, the underwhelming retail sales report, and continued softening of the monthly inflation figures give the Fed room to stay patient in the coming months.
High indebtedness has prompted a call for France to cancel part of its public liabilities. Ideas spread, so expect similarly unorthodox demands elsewhere as governments grapple with high debt, while political disruptors air increasingly unconventional policies. All those roads, however, lead to more inflation and the debauchment of financial assets.
A blockbuster outlook from chip darling Nvidia Corp. is providing a boost to tech stocks and lifting key equity indexes Thursday morning, adding to investor optimism about the AI cycle.
The bond market rarely dominates the financial headlines. But with a light economic data release schedule and earnings season largely in the rearview mirror, the bond market took center stage last week.
Trade talks between Canada and the U.S. fell apart on Saturday, resulting in the Section 338 tariffs on a subset of Canadian goods taking effect. In response, Canada has pledged to implement
Earnings have built a strong foundation. As we wrote earlier this month, earnings have provided a strong foundation for stocks this year. With second quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 on track to exceed 30% (excluding private investment mark-ups) and analysts continuing to raise estimates, it's safe to say this season strengthened the fundamental case for equities.
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) announced an acquisition of First Eagle Investments Wednesday, a deal that will create a combined asset manager with $571 billion in client assets, the companies said.
The most durable assumption in global investing is also the most outdated: that the United States is fundamentally a consumption story and China is fundamentally a capital-expenditure story.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® unexpectedly inched lower in August, falling 0.8 points to 89.4. The index was below the forecast of 90.3.
European equities have long been written off as the ultimate value trap — a sleepy, slow-growth market living in the shadow of Wall Street’s tech-fueled mega-rally. But a massive shift in market dynamics is unfolding across the Atlantic.
When a typical business finds its supply chain costs have risen, it will absorb the increase to keep its customers happy. Nvidia isn’t a typical business. It enjoys gross profit margins of 75% and commands between 70% and 90% of the global market for artificial-intelligence chips.
Equity markets stumbled this week despite an economic backdrop that continues to show signs of broadening. While concerns about consumer strain are mounting, those worries have so far been offset by ongoing strength in business investment, particularly spending tied to artificial intelligence (AI).
It’s been a busy year in the game of ETF landgrab. And a colorful one, too. From exciting M&A deals to some splashy building-from-scratch newcomers, we are seeing a little bit of everything as asset managers look to build scale and capture the impressive growth momentum of the ETF market.
Interest rates are moving higher, and the forces behind the move appear to be persistent inflation and an economy that continues to grow more strongly than many anticipated. Economic growth is generally advantageous, and moderate inflation is a normal feature of a healthy economy.
When the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer, or Eniac, was first built by the University of Pennsylvania for the US Army in 1946, it weighed about 30 tons and had 18,000 vacuum tubes that filled an expansive room.
As the credit cycle ages, defaults are likely to remain front and center. But for investors evaluating private credit alongside public markets, measuring defaults is not as straightforward as it may seem.
Macro strategists and global portfolio managers have their hands full on this final week of August. As we said recently, this is no time to mail it in before Labor Day in the U.S. And for equity traders and bottom-up analysts, NVIDIA (NVDA) writes the storyline in the sessions ahead. The world's most valuable company reports Q2 results after the bell on Wednesday.
This may come as something of a surprise since the financial press has not written or said much about how well this important—and opportunity-rich—subset of small-cap has performed over the last several months.
I wrote several years ago that the only thing you can count on the stock market to do is fluctuate, and that the wisest response is usually to do nothing. Looking less often will not change your return. It will make you far less likely to damage the return you already have.
Kevin Warsh’s first major speech as chairman of the Federal Reserve has become an unexpected trial of his slimmed-down communications style.
US stocks advanced on Tuesday as technology names rallied and investors continued to prepare for Nvidia Corp. earnings and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Yields on 30-year US bonds broke 5% last week, a level not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis. The Treasury Department bought bonds in an attempt to lower yields. It worked — for a day, then bond yields went back up. Meanwhile, in a not-exactly-unrelated development, the US national debt just passed $40 trillion.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has touched roughly 5.3% in the past week, a level not seen in nearly two decades. Global counterparts in Europe, the U.K., and Japan have climbed to similar heights.
Something strange has been happening in America lately. The Wall Street Journal says this is the summer when the U.S. became “a nation of Luddites.” The Economist calls it “the Summer of Ludd.”
U.S.-listed ETFs pulled in a record $193.42 billion in July, pushing year-to-date net inflows to $1.23 trillion. That total is the strongest seven-month haul on record, according to ETFGI’s July 2026 U.S. ETF industry report.
When it comes to equities exposure, investors typically gravitate toward a passive, market-cap-weighted index as the default strategy. These strategies are often billed as an efficient, low-cost method to capture broad market returns. As such, cap-weighted funds that track the S&P 500 or MSCI World have taken in trillions of dollars in global capital. However, within these market-cap-weighted indexes, a structural flaw exists.
Six of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through August 24, 2026.
When portfolios become standardized, investor experience becomes standardized right along with them, even though almost nothing else about those investors is standard. Their goals, tax exposure, risk tolerances, and individual spending needs are too individualized to be captured by many models that purport to be customized.
While it is useful to analyze holdings by asset class, a portfolio-wide view can provide additional insights. Typically, the bond sleeve and the equity sleeve are seen as entirely separate. However, they usually hold unnoticed concentrations in different companies.
Most of us try to be mindful not to put all our eggs in one basket. But the now-familiar concern that most portfolios are quite concentrated in a relatively small group of large US tech companies means that investors may still be doing just that.
No doubt, AI can be an unnerving tool. But it isn’t magic, malevolent, or secretly sentient. With some reasonable rules in place, policymakers should be able to keep the bots in line, and unleash the benefits for everyone else.
To some, the debate over inflation targeting is largely an academic exercise. But its outcome will have direct consequences for the paths of global interest rates and global markets. Some background on how we arrived at this juncture, and where we might go from here, follows.
On the first few trading days of every month, America’s paychecks hit the stock market. Most 401(k) contributions now default into index-tracking funds, which buy the same stocks in the same proportions whatever the price.
In the early weeks of Kevin Warsh’s start as chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, there has been renewed focus on how “underlying” inflation should be measured to guide decisions on interest rates.
For 11 of the 12 years following the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. stocks beat international markets. But that trend has flipped: Over the past four years, international equities have taken the lead.
The truth about the runaway costs of healthcare turns out to be a little more complex than any single source we've named. Hospitals, insurers, private equity, administrators, pharmaceutical companies… pull the thread on any one and we land in the same overextended, bloated, extractive system.
U.S. debt may not be at an immediate breaking point, but persistent deficits, higher rates, and rising interest costs are narrowing fiscal space and market tolerance.
GMO’s liquid alternatives are hedge fund strategies (e.g., equity long-short, global macro, event-driven) managed with an emphasis on risk control and liquidity. The GMO Alternative Allocation Strategy (“ALTA”) is a liquid alternative solution combining several underlying strategies; ALTA is available in a mutual fund with daily liquidity.
Morningstar's study, Mind the Gap 2026 reveals a 1.2% return gap. Learn how financial advisors can use automation to protect client wealth.
Outdoor sports and exercise are more difficult at the height of summer. Runners slow their paces, and teams start their practices early to beat the heat. Competitors must marshal their energy carefully to perform at their best.
Gold climbed to the highest in three months as the US Treasury’s bold intervention to try to stem a damaging increase in borrowing costs revived investor fears about its fiscal burden.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists are among the most optimistic about European stocks on the back of a robust corporate earnings outlook, a Bloomberg survey shows.
For years, Russell index reconstitutions have been treated as a routine maintenance event. Thousands of stocks are ranked, memberships are adjusted, and markets move on
High-yield municipal bonds are one of the best performing asset classes this year but that doesn't mean we think all investors should consider adding them to their portfolio.
After recovering from the “tariff tantrum” that saw stocks of all sizes and styles bottoming out in early April of 2025, equities finished 2025 in admirable shape, carrying the positive momentum into 2026.
For many of the past several years, investor enthusiasm has been concentrated in a narrow group of AI-related and technology stocks. As liquidity conditions tighten and speculation begins to recede, broader market fundamentals are gaining importance.
It’s easy to make the case that the US equity market is in bubble territory. After all, the major metrics point in the same direction.
Shares of Meta Platforms Inc. have been under pressure all year due to questions about its spending on artificial intelligence. But a trial accusing its social media platforms of targeting children goes beyond that, raising existential questions about the future of its core business.
It has been a stellar Q2 earnings season, but we aren’t done yet. After the big retailers this week, Jensen Huang and NVIDIA grab the spotlight on Wednesday, August 26. Then Kevin Warsh takes the podium on the 28th. Through it all, daily market swings hinge on the latest AI developments, along with consumer trends and what’s happening geopolitically.
Market leadership has broadened beyond mega-cap tech, but the next phase is likely to reward disciplined, diversified investors, write Chris Galipeau and Lukasz Kalwak of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Hedged equity as a liquid alternative uses an options-based equity strategy — specifically Swan Global Investments’ Defined Risk Strategy (DRS), in continuous operation since 1997 — as a permanent alternatives allocation that stays invested in the equity market while actively managing downside risk through LEAPS put options
U.S. equities were mostly higher last week, though gains were modest and trading was quiet. The S&P 500, an index of the largest U.S. companies, rose 0.4 per cent and closed on Thursday at a new record high.
Investor appetite for fixed income continues to expand, as evidenced by the latest weekly ETF inflows report from TD Securities. For the week ending August 14, 2026, U.S.-listed ETFs gathered $41.0 billion in total weekly net inflows, which included $13.2 billion into fixed income funds.
Global business activity is showing signs of stabilization, but beneath the surface, the world economy remains divided. Growth momentum has improved in several major developed economies, led by a stronger U.S. expansion and a tentative recovery in parts of Europe.
Margin of safety has nearly vanished from today’s market, as heavy AI debt, off-balance-sheet financing, and a stressed bond market leave stocks little room for error.
Anthropic’s preliminary second-quarter results reignited enthusiasm across the artificial intelligence sector, lifting semiconductor stocks 1% on Monday despite broader tech sector declines. Q2 revenue topped $11.5 billion — a 14x surge year-over-year and more than 2x last quarter’s figures.
FactSet finds core clients still favor cheap funds, while active ETF buyers pay a premium for performance, a trade-off advisors should watch.
Would you consider investing in a bond that earns more than 3% after accounting for inflation? What if that security has zero chance of default? Such an opportunity exists today in U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).
The deal follows similar moves elsewhere in the Gulf, including oil and gas pipeline transactions by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and Saudi Aramco, as governments seek to bring in external capital without losing control of key assets. In these cases, investors obtained bridge financing from banks that were later refinanced by bonds.
BDC bonds have recovered most of their underperformance while equities continue to lag, suggesting investors are demanding a higher risk premium to compensate for uncertainty around portfolio valuations.
Gold’s outlook has brightened considerably following its first-half correction. Spot prices have rebounded to flirt with $4,400 per ounce, supported by renewed central-bank buying, softer economic data, and diminished expectations for further Fed tightening.
Equity markets continued to push higher this week, with nearly all major indices in the U.S. and abroad closing near or at record highs. While longer-term interest rates continued to drift higher, shorter-term interest rates moved lower as investors pushed out both the timing and magnitude of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes.
As private credit further cements its role as a primary source of corporate financing, it will be essential to balance opportunity with prudent risk management for long-term stability and sustainability.
Small-cap equities are winning out against their large-cap counterparts in a classic David versus Goliath ETF battle. After years of mega-cap technology dominance, small-cap equities have delivered investors a historic first half of 2026.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Blackstone Inc. and Apollo Global Management Inc. had been working tirelessly for months to draw up debt deals that would help developers of artificial intelligence systems pay for chips from Nvidia Corp.
Wealth managers are beating a retreat from private credit and ramping up a search for alternatives, as they continue to reel from sudden exit restrictions at several major direct lending funds earlier this year.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: it’s not the political party that matters, but the policies. Investors, I believe, are better served when they focus not on the partisan noise and headlines but the policies that bring about change.
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to choosing between individual bonds and bond funds. The choice depends on an investor’s goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, need for predictable income, and available assets.
Global equity markets continued their strong summer run this week, supported by what has been an exceptionally strong second-quarter earnings season.
For over two decades, US equities have been the global market leader, outperforming the Stoxx Europe 600 by an astonishing approximately 530%. While Europe’s recent comeback has narrowed the gap, the forces underpinning US leadership remain firmly intact. Below, we revisit the case for US versus European equities and reiterate why we maintain our preference for US equities.
Today’s market does not represent today’s economy. The ratio of market value dependent on future economic activity versus present activity has never been higher. These companies have earnings now, but those earnings stem from investments in the future, not present consumption.
Investors are remaining cautious about the markets, according to our U.S. stocks and economy report this month. Our report notes that while investors have continued to pile into the market via strong ETF flows and high margin debt balances, they've done so reluctantly with more subdued attitudes.
Many things in healthcare really have gotten dramatically better and cheaper. Sequencing a human genome, for instance, cost close to a billion dollars in 2003. Today, under $1,500, making CRISPR therapy available to treat a plethora of diseases that once had no cure.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s agreement to buy Neos Investments for as much as $2.25 billion marks a new front in Wall Street’s ETF battle: paying up for specialist firms that have found growth beyond the industry’s low-fee giants.
Mutual Funds
The importance of hedging foreign currency exposure in your equity portfolio
Join the experts at CIBC & Precidian Investments for a product due diligence session exploring their ADRhedged ETF (ADRH).
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: August 2026
Valid until the market close on September 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
From the US Market Desk: Now…We Wait…
Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%. The economy remains resilient and the consumer is strong.
Anthropic’s Mega-IPO Plan Looms Over Packed US Listing Calendar
Anthropic PBC’s IPO is casting a long shadow over companies’ US listing plans, as they try to find room for their deals to grab attention after the Sept. 7 Labor Day holiday.
How Advisors Rebuilt Their ETF Lineups in Q2 2026
Advisors did not slow down on exchange-traded funds in the second quarter. They added more of them, and pointed the money somewhere new, according to AdvizorPro’s Q2 2026 RIA ETF Trends report.
Getting Paid to Extend: The Case for Muni Duration
Treasury’s pivot toward long-bond buybacks gives duration buyers their first clear green light in months — and the November midterms may add a second leg.
Consumption is the Anchor, but Investment Drives the Cycle
We often hear that consumption accounts for roughly 70% of the US economy and that, as long as consumers keep spending, the economy will continue to grow. There is certainly some truth to that.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 28, 2026
The yield on the 10-year note finished August 28, 2026 at 4.73% while the 2-year note ended at 4.34%.
More Signs of Growth Across AI and Europe
This week, our Portfolio Manager Olga Bezrokov sees tentative signs of improvement emerging in Europe, although she cautions that the recovery remains uneven across countries and sectors.
Investor Frenzy for AI Strips Safeguards From Convertible Bonds
Convertible bond investors chasing exposure to the artificial intelligence boom are giving up some of the protection they would normally demand, pushing the market toward levels of risk-taking last seen during the pandemic.
JPMorgan and Apollo Urge Inflation Focus for Warsh’s Big Speech
A chorus of investors is urging Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to express a strong determination to deal with high inflation to boost the long end of the Treasury market.
Gold Regains Its Luster
For an asset often designated as a store of value, gold volatility has been especially apparent this year. After starting off the year with a high-paced record-setting run that lifted the metal to nearly $5,600 an ounce, including a 13% rally in January alone, momentum quickly faded as tensions with Iran ratcheted higher.
Why It’s Time to Add Equities Exposure in Active ETFs
Investors are used to a swirling mass of scary headlines and geopolitical and monetary risk. Yen carry trade and yield concerns, however, may have some feeling of trepidation. Despite those risks, equities continue to appeal.
Small-Cap Stocks Step Out of Big Tech’s Shadow
In markets that have faced multiple sources of uncertainty this year, small-cap stocks have quietly moved to the front of the pack. Unlike the S&P 500, where performance has been heavily influenced by changing AI narratives, smaller companies have seen earnings improve across a broader set of sectors that are more closely tied to the overall US economy.
Today’s Interest Rates: Not the New Normal, Just Normal
Markets are largely reducing expectations for a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, and we agree. July’s weak jobs report, the underwhelming retail sales report, and continued softening of the monthly inflation figures give the Fed room to stay patient in the coming months.
The ‘Burn the Bonds’ Stage of the Debt Cycle Is Here
High indebtedness has prompted a call for France to cancel part of its public liabilities. Ideas spread, so expect similarly unorthodox demands elsewhere as governments grapple with high debt, while political disruptors air increasingly unconventional policies. All those roads, however, lead to more inflation and the debauchment of financial assets.
US Stock Futures Climb as Nvidia’s Outlook Lifts Tech Sector
A blockbuster outlook from chip darling Nvidia Corp. is providing a boost to tech stocks and lifting key equity indexes Thursday morning, adding to investor optimism about the AI cycle.
Higher Oil Prices and Inflation Concerns Weigh on Both Bonds and Stocks
The bond market rarely dominates the financial headlines. But with a light economic data release schedule and earnings season largely in the rearview mirror, the bond market took center stage last week.
What the New Section 338 Tariffs Mean for the U.S. and Canada
Trade talks between Canada and the U.S. fell apart on Saturday, resulting in the Section 338 tariffs on a subset of Canadian goods taking effect. In response, Canada has pledged to implement
Stock Market Tug of War: Earnings vs. Rates
Earnings have built a strong foundation. As we wrote earlier this month, earnings have provided a strong foundation for stocks this year. With second quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 on track to exceed 30% (excluding private investment mark-ups) and analysts continuing to raise estimates, it's safe to say this season strengthened the fundamental case for equities.
Victory Capital’s $571 Billion Acquisition Creates Asset Giant
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) announced an acquisition of First Eagle Investments Wednesday, a deal that will create a combined asset manager with $571 billion in client assets, the companies said.
The Great Inversion: Investment Opportunities Amid a New Paradigm
The most durable assumption in global investing is also the most outdated: that the United States is fundamentally a consumption story and China is fundamentally a capital-expenditure story.
Consumer Confidence Falls Slightly in August
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® unexpectedly inched lower in August, falling 0.8 points to 89.4. The index was below the forecast of 90.3.
European ETFs: Back in the Game
European equities have long been written off as the ultimate value trap — a sleepy, slow-growth market living in the shadow of Wall Street’s tech-fueled mega-rally. But a massive shift in market dynamics is unfolding across the Atlantic.
Nvidia Is Jolting Silicon Valley to Think Like China
When a typical business finds its supply chain costs have risen, it will absorb the increase to keep its customers happy. Nvidia isn’t a typical business. It enjoys gross profit margins of 75% and commands between 70% and 90% of the global market for artificial-intelligence chips.
Markets Weigh Business Strength Against Consumer Weakness
Equity markets stumbled this week despite an economic backdrop that continues to show signs of broadening. While concerns about consumer strain are mounting, those worries have so far been offset by ongoing strength in business investment, particularly spending tied to artificial intelligence (AI).
The ETF Landgrab Is On: Buy or Build?
It’s been a busy year in the game of ETF landgrab. And a colorful one, too. From exciting M&A deals to some splashy building-from-scratch newcomers, we are seeing a little bit of everything as asset managers look to build scale and capture the impressive growth momentum of the ETF market.
Tug-of-War: Who is Setting Interest Rates?
Interest rates are moving higher, and the forces behind the move appear to be persistent inflation and an economy that continues to grow more strongly than many anticipated. Economic growth is generally advantageous, and moderate inflation is a normal feature of a healthy economy.
The Quantum Computer Revolution Is Tantalizingly Close
When the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer, or Eniac, was first built by the University of Pennsylvania for the US Army in 1946, it weighed about 30 tons and had 18,000 vacuum tubes that filled an expansive room.
Narrowing the Visibility Gap in Defaults
As the credit cycle ages, defaults are likely to remain front and center. But for investors evaluating private credit alongside public markets, measuring defaults is not as straightforward as it may seem.
NVIDIA Q2 Earnings & Outlook Matter More This Time. Here's Why
Macro strategists and global portfolio managers have their hands full on this final week of August. As we said recently, this is no time to mail it in before Labor Day in the U.S. And for equity traders and bottom-up analysts, NVIDIA (NVDA) writes the storyline in the sessions ahead. The world's most valuable company reports Q2 results after the bell on Wednesday.
Are US Micro-Caps the Market’s Best Kept Secret?
This may come as something of a surprise since the financial press has not written or said much about how well this important—and opportunity-rich—subset of small-cap has performed over the last several months.
The More Often You Check Your Portfolio, The More Volatile It Seems
I wrote several years ago that the only thing you can count on the stock market to do is fluctuate, and that the wisest response is usually to do nothing. Looking less often will not change your return. It will make you far less likely to damage the return you already have.
Jackson Hole Offers Warsh High Profile Slot to Rebut His Critics
Kevin Warsh’s first major speech as chairman of the Federal Reserve has become an unexpected trial of his slimmed-down communications style.
US Stocks Rally as AI-Linked Names Bounce Before Nvidia Earnings
US stocks advanced on Tuesday as technology names rallied and investors continued to prepare for Nvidia Corp. earnings and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
The Bond Market Is Returning to the Old Normal
Yields on 30-year US bonds broke 5% last week, a level not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis. The Treasury Department bought bonds in an attempt to lower yields. It worked — for a day, then bond yields went back up. Meanwhile, in a not-exactly-unrelated development, the US national debt just passed $40 trillion.
Operation Twist
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
What’s Pushing Long-Term Bond Yields Higher?
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has touched roughly 5.3% in the past week, a level not seen in nearly two decades. Global counterparts in Europe, the U.K., and Japan have climbed to similar heights.
Did America Just Become a Nation of Luddites?
Something strange has been happening in America lately. The Wall Street Journal says this is the summer when the U.S. became “a nation of Luddites.” The Economist calls it “the Summer of Ludd.”
U.S. ETF Inflows Hit Record $1.23 Trillion Through July
U.S.-listed ETFs pulled in a record $193.42 billion in July, pushing year-to-date net inflows to $1.23 trillion. That total is the strongest seven-month haul on record, according to ETFGI’s July 2026 U.S. ETF industry report.
Indexing Redefined, Part I: The RAFI Approach
When it comes to equities exposure, investors typically gravitate toward a passive, market-cap-weighted index as the default strategy. These strategies are often billed as an efficient, low-cost method to capture broad market returns. As such, cap-weighted funds that track the S&P 500 or MSCI World have taken in trillions of dollars in global capital. However, within these market-cap-weighted indexes, a structural flaw exists.
World Markets Watchlist: August 24, 2026
Six of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through August 24, 2026.
Why “Customized” Portfolios Still Look the Same
When portfolios become standardized, investor experience becomes standardized right along with them, even though almost nothing else about those investors is standard. Their goals, tax exposure, risk tolerances, and individual spending needs are too individualized to be captured by many models that purport to be customized.
The Hidden Concentration Between a Portfolio's Equity & Bond Sleeves
While it is useful to analyze holdings by asset class, a portfolio-wide view can provide additional insights. Typically, the bond sleeve and the equity sleeve are seen as entirely separate. However, they usually hold unnoticed concentrations in different companies.
A Bigger Basket Isn't Always a More Diversified One
Most of us try to be mindful not to put all our eggs in one basket. But the now-familiar concern that most portfolios are quite concentrated in a relatively small group of large US tech companies means that investors may still be doing just that.
Rogue AI Is a Scary But Fixable Problem
No doubt, AI can be an unnerving tool. But it isn’t magic, malevolent, or secretly sentient. With some reasonable rules in place, policymakers should be able to keep the bots in line, and unleash the benefits for everyone else.
A Testing Time For Inflation Targeting
To some, the debate over inflation targeting is largely an academic exercise. But its outcome will have direct consequences for the paths of global interest rates and global markets. Some background on how we arrived at this juncture, and where we might go from here, follows.
We Now Know Who Really Benefited from the Index Revolution
On the first few trading days of every month, America’s paychecks hit the stock market. Most 401(k) contributions now default into index-tracking funds, which buy the same stocks in the same proportions whatever the price.
The Key Inflation Signal for Investors
In the early weeks of Kevin Warsh’s start as chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, there has been renewed focus on how “underlying” inflation should be measured to guide decisions on interest rates.
Why International Stocks Are Outpacing the U.S. Again
For 11 of the 12 years following the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. stocks beat international markets. But that trend has flipped: Over the past four years, international equities have taken the lead.
Healthcare Pt. 2: Show Me The Incentive
The truth about the runaway costs of healthcare turns out to be a little more complex than any single source we've named. Hospitals, insurers, private equity, administrators, pharmaceutical companies… pull the thread on any one and we land in the same overextended, bloated, extractive system.
America's New Debt Reality
U.S. debt may not be at an immediate breaking point, but persistent deficits, higher rates, and rising interest costs are narrowing fiscal space and market tolerance.
Returns, Diversification, and Liquidity
GMO’s liquid alternatives are hedge fund strategies (e.g., equity long-short, global macro, event-driven) managed with an emphasis on risk control and liquidity. The GMO Alternative Allocation Strategy (“ALTA”) is a liquid alternative solution combining several underlying strategies; ALTA is available in a mutual fund with daily liquidity.
What Advisors Can Learn From the Investor Return Gap
Morningstar's study, Mind the Gap 2026 reveals a 1.2% return gap. Learn how financial advisors can use automation to protect client wealth.
Keeping The Pace Up
Outdoor sports and exercise are more difficult at the height of summer. Runners slow their paces, and teams start their practices early to beat the heat. Competitors must marshal their energy carefully to perform at their best.
Gold Jumps as Treasury Buybacks Revive Debasement Concerns
Gold climbed to the highest in three months as the US Treasury’s bold intervention to try to stem a damaging increase in borrowing costs revived investor fears about its fiscal burden.
Goldman, JPMorgan Are Among Most Bullish on Europe
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists are among the most optimistic about European stocks on the back of a robust corporate earnings outlook, a Bloomberg survey shows.
The Russell Reset Nobody Saw Coming
For years, Russell index reconstitutions have been treated as a routine maintenance event. Thousands of stocks are ranked, memberships are adjusted, and markets move on
Should You Consider High-Yield Municipal Bonds?
High-yield municipal bonds are one of the best performing asset classes this year but that doesn't mean we think all investors should consider adding them to their portfolio.
How US Small-Caps Can Navigate Sustained Leadership
After recovering from the “tariff tantrum” that saw stocks of all sizes and styles bottoming out in early April of 2025, equities finished 2025 in admirable shape, carrying the positive momentum into 2026.
There’s More to Growth Than AI
For many of the past several years, investor enthusiasm has been concentrated in a narrow group of AI-related and technology stocks. As liquidity conditions tighten and speculation begins to recede, broader market fundamentals are gaining importance.
It Won’t Take Much to Burst the Stock Market Bubble
It’s easy to make the case that the US equity market is in bubble territory. After all, the major metrics point in the same direction.
Meta’s Trial Adds a Trillion-Dollar Risk to Its Struggling Stock
Shares of Meta Platforms Inc. have been under pressure all year due to questions about its spending on artificial intelligence. But a trial accusing its social media platforms of targeting children goes beyond that, raising existential questions about the future of its core business.
Don’t Mail It In Before Labor Day: These 3 Events Could Shake Stocks
It has been a stellar Q2 earnings season, but we aren’t done yet. After the big retailers this week, Jensen Huang and NVIDIA grab the spotlight on Wednesday, August 26. Then Kevin Warsh takes the podium on the 28th. Through it all, daily market swings hinge on the latest AI developments, along with consumer trends and what’s happening geopolitically.
Broadening Delivered. Now Prepare for Volatility.
Market leadership has broadened beyond mega-cap tech, but the next phase is likely to reward disciplined, diversified investors, write Chris Galipeau and Lukasz Kalwak of Franklin Templeton Institute.
Hedged Equity as a Liquid Alternative
Hedged equity as a liquid alternative uses an options-based equity strategy — specifically Swan Global Investments’ Defined Risk Strategy (DRS), in continuous operation since 1997 — as a permanent alternatives allocation that stays invested in the equity market while actively managing downside risk through LEAPS put options
Cooler Inflation Data Eases Pressure on the Fed
U.S. equities were mostly higher last week, though gains were modest and trading was quiet. The S&P 500, an index of the largest U.S. companies, rose 0.4 per cent and closed on Thursday at a new record high.
Fixed Income Demand Surges: Bond ETFs Gathered $13.2 Billion Last Week
Investor appetite for fixed income continues to expand, as evidenced by the latest weekly ETF inflows report from TD Securities. For the week ending August 14, 2026, U.S.-listed ETFs gathered $41.0 billion in total weekly net inflows, which included $13.2 billion into fixed income funds.
Shifting Leadership in Global Growth
Global business activity is showing signs of stabilization, but beneath the surface, the world economy remains divided. Growth momentum has improved in several major developed economies, led by a stronger U.S. expansion and a tentative recovery in parts of Europe.
Margin of Safety
Margin of safety has nearly vanished from today’s market, as heavy AI debt, off-balance-sheet financing, and a stressed bond market leave stocks little room for error.
Anthropic in ETFs: How Investors Can Gain Exposure
Anthropic’s preliminary second-quarter results reignited enthusiasm across the artificial intelligence sector, lifting semiconductor stocks 1% on Monday despite broader tech sector declines. Q2 revenue topped $11.5 billion — a 14x surge year-over-year and more than 2x last quarter’s figures.
What Advisors Should Weigh Before Buying Active ETFs
FactSet finds core clients still favor cheap funds, while active ETF buyers pay a premium for performance, a trade-off advisors should watch.
3% Real TIPS Yields: Boring but Valuable
Would you consider investing in a bond that earns more than 3% after accounting for inflation? What if that security has zero chance of default? Such an opportunity exists today in U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).
Wall Street Leans on Insurance Pools for $16 Billion Kuwait Deal
The deal follows similar moves elsewhere in the Gulf, including oil and gas pipeline transactions by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and Saudi Aramco, as governments seek to bring in external capital without losing control of key assets. In these cases, investors obtained bridge financing from banks that were later refinanced by bonds.
What BDC Markets Are Signaling About Private Credit Valuations
BDC bonds have recovered most of their underperformance while equities continue to lag, suggesting investors are demanding a higher risk premium to compensate for uncertainty around portfolio valuations.
Gold Mining ETFs: Poised to Outshine Gold
Gold’s outlook has brightened considerably following its first-half correction. Spot prices have rebounded to flirt with $4,400 per ounce, supported by renewed central-bank buying, softer economic data, and diminished expectations for further Fed tightening.
Markets Broaden as the Economy Remains Delicately Balanced
Equity markets continued to push higher this week, with nearly all major indices in the U.S. and abroad closing near or at record highs. While longer-term interest rates continued to drift higher, shorter-term interest rates moved lower as investors pushed out both the timing and magnitude of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Anatomy of the Private Credit Market
As private credit further cements its role as a primary source of corporate financing, it will be essential to balance opportunity with prudent risk management for long-term stability and sustainability.
Small-Caps, Big Opportunities: Consider Value Amid Rally
Small-cap equities are winning out against their large-cap counterparts in a classic David versus Goliath ETF battle. After years of mega-cap technology dominance, small-cap equities have delivered investors a historic first half of 2026.
Nvidia’s $500 Billion Plan Envelops Wall Street in Its AI Frenzy
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Blackstone Inc. and Apollo Global Management Inc. had been working tirelessly for months to draw up debt deals that would help developers of artificial intelligence systems pay for chips from Nvidia Corp.
Pimco’s Stracke Says Wealth Firms Running Shy of Private Credit
Wealth managers are beating a retreat from private credit and ramping up a search for alternatives, as they continue to reel from sudden exit restrictions at several major direct lending funds earlier this year.
Midterm Year Pullbacks Have Been Followed by Double-Digit Gains
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: it’s not the political party that matters, but the policies. Investors, I believe, are better served when they focus not on the partisan noise and headlines but the policies that bring about change.
Bonds vs. Bond Funds: Which is Right for You?
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to choosing between individual bonds and bond funds. The choice depends on an investor’s goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, need for predictable income, and available assets.
Strong Earnings, Softer Inflation, Happier Markets
Global equity markets continued their strong summer run this week, supported by what has been an exceptionally strong second-quarter earnings season.
US Equity Leadership Remains Intact
For over two decades, US equities have been the global market leader, outperforming the Stoxx Europe 600 by an astonishing approximately 530%. While Europe’s recent comeback has narrowed the gap, the forces underpinning US leadership remain firmly intact. Below, we revisit the case for US versus European equities and reiterate why we maintain our preference for US equities.
Micro Over Macro
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
A Market Ahead of Its Economy
Today’s market does not represent today’s economy. The ratio of market value dependent on future economic activity versus present activity has never been higher. These companies have earnings now, but those earnings stem from investments in the future, not present consumption.
Schwab Market Perspective
Investors are remaining cautious about the markets, according to our U.S. stocks and economy report this month. Our report notes that while investors have continued to pile into the market via strong ETF flows and high margin debt balances, they've done so reluctantly with more subdued attitudes.
Healthcare: What a Mess
Many things in healthcare really have gotten dramatically better and cheaper. Sequencing a human genome, for instance, cost close to a billion dollars in 2003. Today, under $1,500, making CRISPR therapy available to treat a plethora of diseases that once had no cure.
Goldman $2.25 Billion Neos Deal Raises Stakes in Active-ETF Race
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s agreement to buy Neos Investments for as much as $2.25 billion marks a new front in Wall Street’s ETF battle: paying up for specialist firms that have found growth beyond the industry’s low-fee giants.