Someone once said, “Better than being smart is knowing who is!”
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
The one speed bump advisors keep tripping over is that, well, people are funny about their money.
Here’s how financial marketers can repurpose virtual meetings and video content.
Several avenues for diversifying cryptocurrency portfolios exist. Investors should weigh the costs and benefits of each of the following three methods.
Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
It looks like the economy will grow for a while, just not very fast. And we simply don’t know what will happen when the Federal Reserve tightens in the face of a slowing economy.
Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports is a “declaration of war” that threatens to trigger mass migration and a global food crisis, a United Nations official said, adding to the dire warnings on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Dividend Growth Stocks Dividend growth stocks are one of the more favored classes of stocks that investors want to hear about.
The major market indices finished mixed this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.63%. The S&P 500 Stock Index rose 0.40%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.02%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index lost 0.28% this week.
The push-and-pull between centralization and decentralization is the great contest of our times. And decentralization is winning out.
Recession warnings are clearly on the rise. Much of the initial media fervor focuses on the inversion of the yield curve.
I require clients to send me their most recent tax returns. Here are the insights I learn and how it provides a ton of value to clients.
The war in Ukraine has contributed to inflation in the short term, but there’s much more to the story, which began way before Russia invaded its neighbor.
I hope the discomfort and pain you experience reading this piece are but a small fraction of what I experienced writing it. I keep reminding myself that most of our problems today are first-world problems that are generally trivial and insignificant compared to what people in Ukraine are going through.
Europeans enduring an unseasonal April cold snap may be forgiven for thinking winter is back. But for the natural gas market, summer has arrived. April 1 marked the start of a new year in the energy calendar, moving the focus to injecting enough gas into storage during the coming low-demand months in preparation for next winter. It’s a race Europe cannot afford to lose, but one it will struggle to win following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a shock to the existing world order. From an economic perspective, the initial impact of the war is rising inflation given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in the supply of commodities to the world.
Geopolitical upheaval and rapid inflation have driven volatility and, with that, questions from clients about whether to reposition portfolios defensively. In my wide-ranging conversation with Harold Evensky, he explained how he responds to fears that this time is different.
Oil fluctuated as investors weighed threats to supplies from the month-old war in Ukraine, with President Joe Biden set to address the crisis on a key trip to Europe that may see more sanctions imposed on Russia.
In answer to this question, yes, it appears we are very much amidst a bear market rally. In fact, as I will endeavor to articulate below, it appears said rally could extend further over the coming weeks.
Call them brazen, call them naïve, but stock investors are giving no sign of being daunted by the hottest inflation in decades or the accompanying surge in bond yields. Their boldness has sent analysts in search of ways to explain how the S&P 500 Index has managed to rally in five of the last six sessions, even as the Federal Reserve promises higher rates while war rages in Europe and Treasury rates see the biggest two-day jump in two years.
Andy Rothman, Matthews Asia Investment Strategist, and Dr. Bobo Lo, independent analyst and non-resident Fellow with the Lowy Institute, discuss how the Russian invasion of Ukraine may affect China’s relationship with the U.S. and Europe.
In economics, “Guns or Butter” compares the impact of government spending on defense and non-defense categories. The Russia invasion of Ukraine has implications for investors and categories associated with defense, energy and industrials. Sectors deemed in the national interest should benefit from better appropriation, less regulation and bipartisan support.
Javelin and Stinger missiles, Molotov cocktails and now…crypto war bonds. To support its life-or-death struggle against Russia, Ukraine is seeking to tap the rapidly expanding potential of cryptocurrencies. If it succeeds, other nations facing dire circumstances may follow.
Jasmin and Ryan recently exchanged ideas about trading apps and new software that can help educate investors about key investment principles.
Unlike fiat currency, Bitcoin is decentralized and cannot be controlled by any central bank or politician, making it a powerful peer-to-peer payment network. Why else are some lawmakers and bureaucrats so eager to regulate or outright ban it?
How much inflation is okay? People have different answers. I think it should be very low, but definitely positive to forestall deflation. Whatever your ideal may be, there’s a range of possibilities that would at least satisfy you. Political scientists call this range the “Overton Window,” a hypothetical box around the limits of acceptable policy. Anything outside the box is, by definition, unacceptable.
Cryptocurrency exchanges and other financial services companies were stars amid a Super Bowl ad blitz that featured the return of many longtime sponsors and an overall more celebratory mood than last year.
Europe’s stricter environmental, social and governance rules might be forcing companies in more controversial sectors to look across the Atlantic for funding.
UBS made a huge investment in acquiring the robo-advisor Wealthfront. But neither this investment nor any other robo pose a threat to traditional financial advice.
We’ll review what may be the most compelling bear case I’ve seen in a long time, along with some other unpleasant data. Then we’ll look at some equally compelling reasons those views may be wrong.
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
While no one knows what 2022 holds in store for investors, my concern is that it should not foster the same optimism as 2021.
Bob Huebscher’s mother passed away on December 23, 2021.
You might think that the IPO of electric-truck wunderkind Rivian Automotive Inc. — with its valuation soaring past $100 billion on zero revenue — perfectly captured the madness in autos in 2021.
For Americans under 50, inflation is little more than a theoretical concept. But for those of us born in the late 1950s and 1960s, the inflation of the 1970s was a formative experience we’d rather not repeat. Inflation was as much a part of our childhood as Covid is for today’s kids.
Cryptocurrencies had a blockbuster year in 2021 by almost any measure. Bitcoin, Ether and other coins jumped, reaching new highs far beyond their previous peaks.
As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read market and economic commentaries over the past 12 months.
It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year. I have also included some novels and books of general interest. Here is my list of winners and losers.
As investors and companies increasingly seek to address the risks of climate change, there is growing debate about the use of carbon offsets in achieving net-zero emissions. We think there’s room for a measure of offsets to achieve carbon neutrality, provided best practices are followed.
Oil edged higher after OPEC and its partners left themselves room to quickly adjust output plans if the pandemic drastically changes the market.
Although electric cars will become predominant, the industry will remain highly competitive and capital intensive. Over the next decade, it will be difficult for investors in auto manufacturers to earn meaningfully positive stock returns with the outlook for investment in electric vehicle specialists being particularly bleak.
The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported last week it has arrested around 1.7 million people for illegal crossings at the southern border with Mexico between October 2020 and September 2021. This is an all-time high with migrants from Mexico making up the largest group of nationals arrested.
As predicted by financial theory, stocks of companies with positive ESG records underperformed the market. But the problems for ESG investors don’t stop there.
In addition to the robo-advisors discussed in Part I and Part II of our series, traditional investment companies, including Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, Schwab, and Merrill have developed their own robo-advisory services.
Given record profit margins and valuations, there is little upside, especially if inflation remains problematic. Throw stagflation into the formula, and the outlook is bleak.
The media and the economics profession are treating inflation like it is a friendly puppy dog. They think you can take it out of its pen and play with it for a while. The popular theory is that you bring it out in a severe dip in economic activity and when the economy gets back on its feet, you kindly ask inflation to crawl back into its pen like any good puppy dog would do.
In part two of this series, I review three additional robos: Albert, Ellevest, and Stash.
With so many robo-advisor choices, individuals are struggling with which one to use.
In August, the Israeli brokerage eToro hired Lule Demmissie, a longtime wealth-management director at TD Ameritrade and, more recently, president at Ally Invest, to head its growing presence in the U.S. Demmissie, who moved to the U.S. from Ethiopia when she was a teenager, has a lot on her plate.
Investors and financial advisors alike want to understand the fascinating trends that are transforming the investment industry.
For years climate scientists have warned about the ferocious wildfires and hurricanes that are now overwhelming many communities.
We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the system (much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.
There’s a fallacy among advisors that selecting a platform partner is an either/or proposition: a TAMP or an open-architecture solution. There is a middle ground. Some describe it as a “full-service portfolio management platform.” The team at SEI calls it a TechstodianSM.
A client engaged us about three months ago. But based on the time we’ve worked together, I do not enjoy or like him.
The expectations our clients and prospects have for technology are continually evolving and we must evolve with them.
Grim as things seem, most of us are in better shape than we’d be in a higher rate environment. Before inquiring about the strength of the product purchased from my local cannabis outlet, let me explain.
Jeffrey Gundlach’s highest conviction investment idea is that the dollar will head lower over the long term. That will lead to a strong rally in emerging equities, and they will outperform U.S. stocks.
Vivek Ramaswamy’s new book, Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America’s Social Justice Scam, is addressed to what he believes are the evils of corporate America adopting a ”woke” posture and taking it upon itself to enforce woke-ness.
We have argued for years that the biggest mistake being made by Berkshire Hathaway was not giving shareholders access to the thoughts and investment discipline of their two talented stock pickers, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs. After all, Buffett calls the shareholders “partners” and has not allowed his partners to understand anything about the strategies and results of upwards of $30 billion of shareholder capital.
While robos are beneficial as they often invest in low-cost funds and ETFs, ideally, they should also include quality SPIAs and DIAs to simplify investment planning and allow retirees to spend more.
Through the first six months of 2021, gunfire killed nearly 10,000 people in the United States, about 54 lives lost per day, according to data from the Gun Violence Archive, a nonprofit research organization.
If there is one experience common to us all during the global pandemic, it is that the spread of COVID-19 around the world caused everyone—young or old, rich or poor, male or female—to reassess our priorities.
For many, paying off debt and putting money away for retirement are the first financial goals to work toward.
Inflation has been on the rise recently, raising concerns about long-run inflation and its impact on the spending power of those who can least afford it—investors approaching or already in retirement.
Bill Gross and his wife pleaded not guilty Tuesday to charges they violated a court order to stop bothering their Southern California neighbor with excessively loud music.
Xi has been trying to balance economic freedom and authoritarian control and it’s not working like it used to. Today we’ll review some recent events that illustrate where Xi went wrong.
Is the retail investor rampage over?
For years, David Horowitz at Agilon Capital was a rare breed in the bond market: a quant in a notoriously old-school business where prices were a call rather than a click away.
I generally try to avoid political commentaries in Forecasts & Trends, although I never hesitate to make it clear I am a conservative on most issues.
In January, during the market frenzy which saw GameStop Corporation on stock go from approximately $20 to nearly $500 intraday within two weeks, some asked why the company did not capitalize on the demand by issuing shares.
Disappointing returns for healthcare stocks through the market’s recovery from the pandemic have raised concerns about the sector.
Far from signaling the return of significant inflation, temporary price increases are exactly what one would expect in a recovery following an economic shutdown.
If you could ask the world’s top central bankers what really terrifies them, I think the honest answer would usually be “deflation.” It is their greatest nightmare. They think a little inflation is good (thus the 2%+ target), and they’re confident they can subdue it if necessary. Deflation is a bigger problem.
Financial-technology firm Stash is exploring options for a market listing, such as merging with a special purpose acquisition company or a traditional initial public offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Archegos Capital Management’s implosion signals Wall Street has grown too complacent about potential threats building up in the economy, said Michael Hsu, the new acting chief of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Last week I teased you about the China panel, so that seems like a good place to start. We’ll review that conversation and then bring in some China comments from later sessions.
The world’s largest SPAC – Pershing Square’s “tontine” – is “deeply engaged” in a transaction that could close in the next few weeks, according to Bill Ackman.
This is where the evolution happens, and a firm innovates to thrive in the future.
Joe Biden took the riskiest step of his presidency with a call for higher taxes on the wealthy to fund a massive investment in the nation’s social safety net, betting he could sell the American public on sweeping change following a pandemic that exacerbated economic and social divides.
Along with learning the importance of saying "yes ma'am” and “no sir," my southern upbringing taught me the value of a handwritten note.
The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2o Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.
We’re more than ready to put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For the first time since this all started a year ago, more than one million people per day have been flying commercial in the U.S. for 30 straight days.
Floating-rate notes can help lower a portfolio’s sensitivity to interest rate changes, but they aren’t necessarily the secret weapon to combat a rising-rate environment.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday outlined her department’s plans on fighting climate change with remarks that are likely to ramp up a dispute with Republican lawmakers over the appropriate use of financial regulation on that front.
Educators have long struggled to help students like Tiaja Harley earn bachelor’s degrees, the surest route to the middle class. Raised by a single mother who earned minimum wage, Harley loved to read and was good at math and science in elementary school. Students like her do get into college, but the vast majority drop out.
Senate Democrats launched their effort to pass sweeping voting rights legislation Wednesday, which could become the centerpiece of an attempt to weaken the chamber’s filibuster rule.
There are many ways to go wrong in choosing a TAMP. Here are two no one is talking about.
If you’re fond of the term “mind candy” to describe novel, intriguing, and insightful concepts, then The WEIRDest People in the World is an eight-pound Costco box of it.
Robo Advisors
Buffett, Jones and Hamm: An Oil Wisdom Trifecta
Someone once said, “Better than being smart is knowing who is!”
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Dr. Cole Cash and the Next Generation
The one speed bump advisors keep tripping over is that, well, people are funny about their money.
The Next Generation of Video Marketing
Here’s how financial marketers can repurpose virtual meetings and video content.
How to Build a Diversified Crypto Allocation
Several avenues for diversifying cryptocurrency portfolios exist. Investors should weigh the costs and benefits of each of the following three methods.
Bull Market Rhymes
Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.
FOMC Inflation Test Coming
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
Rock and a Hard Place
It looks like the economy will grow for a while, just not very fast. And we simply don’t know what will happen when the Federal Reserve tightens in the face of a slowing economy.
Russian Port Sieges ‘Declaration of War,’ UN Says
Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports is a “declaration of war” that threatens to trigger mass migration and a global food crisis, a United Nations official said, adding to the dire warnings on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
41 Dividend Growth Stocks Requested
Dividend Growth Stocks Dividend growth stocks are one of the more favored classes of stocks that investors want to hear about.
OnlyFans Offers a Lesson for Protesting Historically High Home Appraisals
The major market indices finished mixed this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.63%. The S&P 500 Stock Index rose 0.40%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.02%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index lost 0.28% this week.
Decentralization Is Winning the War Against Centralization
The push-and-pull between centralization and decentralization is the great contest of our times. And decentralization is winning out.
Recession Warnings Rise, Limiting Fed’s Inflation Fight
Recession warnings are clearly on the rise. Much of the initial media fervor focuses on the inversion of the yield curve.
How to Add Value by Reviewing Clients’ Tax Returns
I require clients to send me their most recent tax returns. Here are the insights I learn and how it provides a ton of value to clients.
The “Putin Price Hike” Is Fake News
The war in Ukraine has contributed to inflation in the short term, but there’s much more to the story, which began way before Russia invaded its neighbor.
War in Ukraine: Part 4 – Are There Neo-Nazis in Ukraine?
I hope the discomfort and pain you experience reading this piece are but a small fraction of what I experienced writing it. I keep reminding myself that most of our problems today are first-world problems that are generally trivial and insignificant compared to what people in Ukraine are going through.
Europe’s Hypocritical Gas Policy Isn’t Sustainable
Europeans enduring an unseasonal April cold snap may be forgiven for thinking winter is back. But for the natural gas market, summer has arrived. April 1 marked the start of a new year in the energy calendar, moving the focus to injecting enough gas into storage during the coming low-demand months in preparation for next winter. It’s a race Europe cannot afford to lose, but one it will struggle to win following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Case For EM In A Multipolar World
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a shock to the existing world order. From an economic perspective, the initial impact of the war is rising inflation given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in the supply of commodities to the world.
Harold Evensky: Is This Time Different?
Geopolitical upheaval and rapid inflation have driven volatility and, with that, questions from clients about whether to reposition portfolios defensively. In my wide-ranging conversation with Harold Evensky, he explained how he responds to fears that this time is different.
Oil Swings as Biden, Allies Gather to Step Up Pressure on Moscow
Oil fluctuated as investors weighed threats to supplies from the month-old war in Ukraine, with President Joe Biden set to address the crisis on a key trip to Europe that may see more sanctions imposed on Russia.
Does This Rally Have Legs?
In answer to this question, yes, it appears we are very much amidst a bear market rally. In fact, as I will endeavor to articulate below, it appears said rally could extend further over the coming weeks.
Stocks as Inflation Hedge Is New Catch-All Narrative for Market Rally
Call them brazen, call them naïve, but stock investors are giving no sign of being daunted by the hottest inflation in decades or the accompanying surge in bond yields. Their boldness has sent analysts in search of ways to explain how the S&P 500 Index has managed to rally in five of the last six sessions, even as the Federal Reserve promises higher rates while war rages in Europe and Treasury rates see the biggest two-day jump in two years.
Russia, Ukraine and China’s Western Ties
Andy Rothman, Matthews Asia Investment Strategist, and Dr. Bobo Lo, independent analyst and non-resident Fellow with the Lowy Institute, discuss how the Russian invasion of Ukraine may affect China’s relationship with the U.S. and Europe.
The Debate Over Guns or Butter Returns
In economics, “Guns or Butter” compares the impact of government spending on defense and non-defense categories. The Russia invasion of Ukraine has implications for investors and categories associated with defense, energy and industrials. Sectors deemed in the national interest should benefit from better appropriation, less regulation and bipartisan support.
Ukraine Puts a Crypto Twist on War Bonds. It Can Do More.
Javelin and Stinger missiles, Molotov cocktails and now…crypto war bonds. To support its life-or-death struggle against Russia, Ukraine is seeking to tap the rapidly expanding potential of cryptocurrencies. If it succeeds, other nations facing dire circumstances may follow.
Can Your Digital Platform Withstand Regulator Scrutiny?
Jasmin and Ryan recently exchanged ideas about trading apps and new software that can help educate investors about key investment principles.
The Crackdown on Canadian Truckers Shines a Spotlight on Bitcoin and Gold
Unlike fiat currency, Bitcoin is decentralized and cannot be controlled by any central bank or politician, making it a powerful peer-to-peer payment network. Why else are some lawmakers and bureaucrats so eager to regulate or outright ban it?
Inflation Thoughts
How much inflation is okay? People have different answers. I think it should be very low, but definitely positive to forestall deflation. Whatever your ideal may be, there’s a range of possibilities that would at least satisfy you. Political scientists call this range the “Overton Window,” a hypothetical box around the limits of acceptable policy. Anything outside the box is, by definition, unacceptable.
Financial Spots Are Stars in First-Ever Crypto Super Bowl
Cryptocurrency exchanges and other financial services companies were stars amid a Super Bowl ad blitz that featured the return of many longtime sponsors and an overall more celebratory mood than last year.
Europe’s ESG Drive to Push Vice Firms to Raise Money in U.S.
Europe’s stricter environmental, social and governance rules might be forcing companies in more controversial sectors to look across the Atlantic for funding.
2022: Another Year We Needn't Worry About the Robos
UBS made a huge investment in acquiring the robo-advisor Wealthfront. But neither this investment nor any other robo pose a threat to traditional financial advice.
So Goes the Year?
We’ll review what may be the most compelling bear case I’ve seen in a long time, along with some other unpleasant data. Then we’ll look at some equally compelling reasons those views may be wrong.
The Shipping Industry Has Never Been So Profitable as It Is Now
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
The 2022 Outlook Part 1 - Tailwinds Shift to Headwinds
While no one knows what 2022 holds in store for investors, my concern is that it should not foster the same optimism as 2021.
Lucille Pion Huebscher (July 28, 1927 - December 23, 2021)
Bob Huebscher’s mother passed away on December 23, 2021.
Cars Are Suddenly Worth $3 Trillion, And It’s Not All Tesla
You might think that the IPO of electric-truck wunderkind Rivian Automotive Inc. — with its valuation soaring past $100 billion on zero revenue — perfectly captured the madness in autos in 2021.
Think Old Folks Are Too Scared of Inflation? Listen to This
For Americans under 50, inflation is little more than a theoretical concept. But for those of us born in the late 1950s and 1960s, the inflation of the 1970s was a formative experience we’d rather not repeat. Inflation was as much a part of our childhood as Covid is for today’s kids.
Crypto’s Wild 2021 Will Go Down as One for the Ages
Cryptocurrencies had a blockbuster year in 2021 by almost any measure. Bitcoin, Ether and other coins jumped, reaching new highs far beyond their previous peaks.
Our Top 10 Most Popular Market Commentaries of 2021
As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read market and economic commentaries over the past 12 months.
The Best and Worst Investment (and other) Books of 2021
It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year. I have also included some novels and books of general interest. Here is my list of winners and losers.
Six Best Practices for Carbon Offsets
As investors and companies increasingly seek to address the risks of climate change, there is growing debate about the use of carbon offsets in achieving net-zero emissions. We think there’s room for a measure of offsets to achieve carbon neutrality, provided best practices are followed.
Oil Rises as OPEC+ Leaves Door Open for Quick Change of Plans
Oil edged higher after OPEC and its partners left themselves room to quickly adjust output plans if the pandemic drastically changes the market.
Valuing The Automotive Industry
Although electric cars will become predominant, the industry will remain highly competitive and capital intensive. Over the next decade, it will be difficult for investors in auto manufacturers to earn meaningfully positive stock returns with the outlook for investment in electric vehicle specialists being particularly bleak.
Illegal Border Crossings To Hit Record 2 Million By Year-end
The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported last week it has arrested around 1.7 million people for illegal crossings at the southern border with Mexico between October 2020 and September 2021. This is an all-time high with migrants from Mexico making up the largest group of nationals arrested.
The Intrinsic Futility of ES(G) Investing
As predicted by financial theory, stocks of companies with positive ESG records underperformed the market. But the problems for ESG investors don’t stop there.
Comparing Robo-Advisors: Goldman, Vanguard, Schwab and Merrill
In addition to the robo-advisors discussed in Part I and Part II of our series, traditional investment companies, including Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, Schwab, and Merrill have developed their own robo-advisory services.
Persistent Inflation Poses a Genuine Threat to Stock Prices
Given record profit margins and valuations, there is little upside, especially if inflation remains problematic. Throw stagflation into the formula, and the outlook is bleak.
Inflation is a Wolverine
The media and the economics profession are treating inflation like it is a friendly puppy dog. They think you can take it out of its pen and play with it for a while. The popular theory is that you bring it out in a severe dip in economic activity and when the economy gets back on its feet, you kindly ask inflation to crawl back into its pen like any good puppy dog would do.
Comparing Robo-Advisors: Albert, Stash, Ellevest
In part two of this series, I review three additional robos: Albert, Ellevest, and Stash.
Comparing Robo-Advisors: Digit, Acorns, Betterment, Wealthfront
With so many robo-advisor choices, individuals are struggling with which one to use.
U.S. CEO of Crypto-Focused Broker Has Regulation on Her Mind
In August, the Israeli brokerage eToro hired Lule Demmissie, a longtime wealth-management director at TD Ameritrade and, more recently, president at Ally Invest, to head its growing presence in the U.S. Demmissie, who moved to the U.S. from Ethiopia when she was a teenager, has a lot on her plate.
Digital Trends Impacting Investors and Advisors
Investors and financial advisors alike want to understand the fascinating trends that are transforming the investment industry.
A Climate Reckoning Is Coming for the World’s Government Debt
For years climate scientists have warned about the ferocious wildfires and hurricanes that are now overwhelming many communities.
Part 2: What To Do In The Case Of Sustained Inflation
We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the system (much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.
Is Custody Free? The New Generation of Custodial Options for Advisors
There’s a fallacy among advisors that selecting a platform partner is an either/or proposition: a TAMP or an open-architecture solution. There is a middle ground. Some describe it as a “full-service portfolio management platform.” The team at SEI calls it a TechstodianSM.
I Don’t Like One of My Clients
A client engaged us about three months ago. But based on the time we’ve worked together, I do not enjoy or like him.
Technology Strengthens Client Relationships, Attracts New Investors
The expectations our clients and prospects have for technology are continually evolving and we must evolve with them.
Who Wins with Low Interest Rates?
Grim as things seem, most of us are in better shape than we’d be in a higher rate environment. Before inquiring about the strength of the product purchased from my local cannabis outlet, let me explain.
Gundlach – When the Dollar Heads Lower, Emerging Markets will Outperform
Jeffrey Gundlach’s highest conviction investment idea is that the dollar will head lower over the long term. That will lead to a strong rally in emerging equities, and they will outperform U.S. stocks.
How Bad is “Woke” Capitalism?
Vivek Ramaswamy’s new book, Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America’s Social Justice Scam, is addressed to what he believes are the evils of corporate America adopting a ”woke” posture and taking it upon itself to enforce woke-ness.
Berkshire: Pinch Hit Weschler
We have argued for years that the biggest mistake being made by Berkshire Hathaway was not giving shareholders access to the thoughts and investment discipline of their two talented stock pickers, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs. After all, Buffett calls the shareholders “partners” and has not allowed his partners to understand anything about the strategies and results of upwards of $30 billion of shareholder capital.
Should Your Robo Adviser Include Guaranteed Income Products?
While robos are beneficial as they often invest in low-cost funds and ETFs, ideally, they should also include quality SPIAs and DIAs to simplify investment planning and allow retirees to spend more.
Gun Violence Hit Record In 2020 & 2021 Is Even Worse
Through the first six months of 2021, gunfire killed nearly 10,000 people in the United States, about 54 lives lost per day, according to data from the Gun Violence Archive, a nonprofit research organization.
C Is For A Customized Client Experience: Looking At The Holistic Planning Services Advisors Now Provide
If there is one experience common to us all during the global pandemic, it is that the spread of COVID-19 around the world caused everyone—young or old, rich or poor, male or female—to reassess our priorities.
So, You've Maxed Out Your Retirement Contributions. Now What?: Erin Lowry
For many, paying off debt and putting money away for retirement are the first financial goals to work toward.
Is Your Target-Date Fund Providing Enough Inflation Protection?
Inflation has been on the rise recently, raising concerns about long-run inflation and its impact on the spending power of those who can least afford it—investors approaching or already in retirement.
Bill Gross to Contest Neighbor’s Latest Complaint About Loud Music
Bill Gross and his wife pleaded not guilty Tuesday to charges they violated a court order to stop bothering their Southern California neighbor with excessively loud music.
Xi’s Big Mistake
Xi has been trying to balance economic freedom and authoritarian control and it’s not working like it used to. Today we’ll review some recent events that illustrate where Xi went wrong.
Technically Speaking: Is The Retail Investor Rampage Over?
Is the retail investor rampage over?
Wall Street’s Math Whizzes Are Racing to Wire Up the Bond Market
For years, David Horowitz at Agilon Capital was a rare breed in the bond market: a quant in a notoriously old-school business where prices were a call rather than a click away.
Democrats Try To Hijack Voting Laws/Rights
I generally try to avoid political commentaries in Forecasts & Trends, although I never hesitate to make it clear I am a conservative on most issues.
ESG is Not Enough: Why Intention Matters
In January, during the market frenzy which saw GameStop Corporation on stock go from approximately $20 to nearly $500 intraday within two weeks, some asked why the company did not capitalize on the demand by issuing shares.
Healthcare Stocks: Four Questions for the Recovery
Disappointing returns for healthcare stocks through the market’s recovery from the pandemic have raised concerns about the sector.
The Inflation Red Herring
Far from signaling the return of significant inflation, temporary price increases are exactly what one would expect in a recovery following an economic shutdown.
Deflation Talk
If you could ask the world’s top central bankers what really terrifies them, I think the honest answer would usually be “deflation.” It is their greatest nightmare. They think a little inflation is good (thus the 2%+ target), and they’re confident they can subdue it if necessary. Deflation is a bigger problem.
Fintech Unicorn Stash Is Weighing Options for Going Public
Financial-technology firm Stash is exploring options for a market listing, such as merging with a special purpose acquisition company or a traditional initial public offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Archegos Blowup Signals Bank Complacency, Top Regulator Says
Archegos Capital Management’s implosion signals Wall Street has grown too complacent about potential threats building up in the economy, said Michael Hsu, the new acting chief of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
A Giant Consumptive Force
Last week I teased you about the China panel, so that seems like a good place to start. We’ll review that conversation and then bring in some China comments from later sessions.
Bill Ackman’s SPAC is “Deeply Engaged” in a Transaction
The world’s largest SPAC – Pershing Square’s “tontine” – is “deeply engaged” in a transaction that could close in the next few weeks, according to Bill Ackman.
How Firms Can Evolve for the Future Before It Arrives
This is where the evolution happens, and a firm innovates to thrive in the future.
Biden Dares Democrats to Shift Tax Burden to Wealthy Americans
Joe Biden took the riskiest step of his presidency with a call for higher taxes on the wealthy to fund a massive investment in the nation’s social safety net, betting he could sell the American public on sweeping change following a pandemic that exacerbated economic and social divides.
The Lost Art of the Handwritten Note
Along with learning the importance of saying "yes ma'am” and “no sir," my southern upbringing taught me the value of a handwritten note.
Seven Policy Proposals to Meet the Paris Agreement Objectives
The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2o Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.
Positive First-Quarter Data Point to a Global, Sustained Economic Boom
We’re more than ready to put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For the first time since this all started a year ago, more than one million people per day have been flying commercial in the U.S. for 30 straight days.
Rising Rates: When to Consider Floating-Rate Notes
Floating-rate notes can help lower a portfolio’s sensitivity to interest rate changes, but they aren’t necessarily the secret weapon to combat a rising-rate environment.
Yellen Backs Aligning U.S. Portfolios With Climate Goals
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday outlined her department’s plans on fighting climate change with remarks that are likely to ramp up a dispute with Republican lawmakers over the appropriate use of financial regulation on that front.
The Tools of the Rich Propel Poor Kids Through College
Educators have long struggled to help students like Tiaja Harley earn bachelor’s degrees, the surest route to the middle class. Raised by a single mother who earned minimum wage, Harley loved to read and was good at math and science in elementary school. Students like her do get into college, but the vast majority drop out.
Voting Rights Fight Emerges as Key to Filibuster Overhaul
Senate Democrats launched their effort to pass sweeping voting rights legislation Wednesday, which could become the centerpiece of an attempt to weaken the chamber’s filibuster rule.
The Two Worst Mistakes Advisors Make When Hiring a TAMP
There are many ways to go wrong in choosing a TAMP. Here are two no one is talking about.
Understanding the Source of Western Wealth
If you’re fond of the term “mind candy” to describe novel, intriguing, and insightful concepts, then The WEIRDest People in the World is an eight-pound Costco box of it.