Bull Market Rhymes
Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.
Russian Port Sieges ‘Declaration of War,’ UN Says
Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports is a “declaration of war” that threatens to trigger mass migration and a global food crisis, a United Nations official said, adding to the dire warnings on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
OnlyFans Offers a Lesson for Protesting Historically High Home Appraisals
The major market indices finished mixed this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.63%. The S&P 500 Stock Index rose 0.40%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.02%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index lost 0.28% this week.
War in Ukraine: Part 4 – Are There Neo-Nazis in Ukraine?
I hope the discomfort and pain you experience reading this piece are but a small fraction of what I experienced writing it. I keep reminding myself that most of our problems today are first-world problems that are generally trivial and insignificant compared to what people in Ukraine are going through.
Europe’s Hypocritical Gas Policy Isn’t Sustainable
Europeans enduring an unseasonal April cold snap may be forgiven for thinking winter is back. But for the natural gas market, summer has arrived. April 1 marked the start of a new year in the energy calendar, moving the focus to injecting enough gas into storage during the coming low-demand months in preparation for next winter. It’s a race Europe cannot afford to lose, but one it will struggle to win following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Case For EM In A Multipolar World
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a shock to the existing world order. From an economic perspective, the initial impact of the war is rising inflation given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in the supply of commodities to the world.
Harold Evensky: Is This Time Different?
Geopolitical upheaval and rapid inflation have driven volatility and, with that, questions from clients about whether to reposition portfolios defensively. In my wide-ranging conversation with Harold Evensky, he explained how he responds to fears that this time is different.
Oil Swings as Biden, Allies Gather to Step Up Pressure on Moscow
Oil fluctuated as investors weighed threats to supplies from the month-old war in Ukraine, with President Joe Biden set to address the crisis on a key trip to Europe that may see more sanctions imposed on Russia.
Stocks as Inflation Hedge Is New Catch-All Narrative for Market Rally
Call them brazen, call them naïve, but stock investors are giving no sign of being daunted by the hottest inflation in decades or the accompanying surge in bond yields. Their boldness has sent analysts in search of ways to explain how the S&P 500 Index has managed to rally in five of the last six sessions, even as the Federal Reserve promises higher rates while war rages in Europe and Treasury rates see the biggest two-day jump in two years.
Russia, Ukraine and China’s Western Ties
Andy Rothman, Matthews Asia Investment Strategist, and Dr. Bobo Lo, independent analyst and non-resident Fellow with the Lowy Institute, discuss how the Russian invasion of Ukraine may affect China’s relationship with the U.S. and Europe.
The Debate Over Guns or Butter Returns
In economics, “Guns or Butter” compares the impact of government spending on defense and non-defense categories. The Russia invasion of Ukraine has implications for investors and categories associated with defense, energy and industrials. Sectors deemed in the national interest should benefit from better appropriation, less regulation and bipartisan support.
Ukraine Puts a Crypto Twist on War Bonds. It Can Do More.
Javelin and Stinger missiles, Molotov cocktails and now…crypto war bonds. To support its life-or-death struggle against Russia, Ukraine is seeking to tap the rapidly expanding potential of cryptocurrencies. If it succeeds, other nations facing dire circumstances may follow.
The Crackdown on Canadian Truckers Shines a Spotlight on Bitcoin and Gold
Unlike fiat currency, Bitcoin is decentralized and cannot be controlled by any central bank or politician, making it a powerful peer-to-peer payment network. Why else are some lawmakers and bureaucrats so eager to regulate or outright ban it?
How much inflation is okay? People have different answers. I think it should be very low, but definitely positive to forestall deflation. Whatever your ideal may be, there’s a range of possibilities that would at least satisfy you. Political scientists call this range the “Overton Window,” a hypothetical box around the limits of acceptable policy. Anything outside the box is, by definition, unacceptable.
Financial Spots Are Stars in First-Ever Crypto Super Bowl
Cryptocurrency exchanges and other financial services companies were stars amid a Super Bowl ad blitz that featured the return of many longtime sponsors and an overall more celebratory mood than last year.
The Shipping Industry Has Never Been So Profitable as It Is Now
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
Think Old Folks Are Too Scared of Inflation? Listen to This
For Americans under 50, inflation is little more than a theoretical concept. But for those of us born in the late 1950s and 1960s, the inflation of the 1970s was a formative experience we’d rather not repeat. Inflation was as much a part of our childhood as Covid is for today’s kids.
Six Best Practices for Carbon Offsets
As investors and companies increasingly seek to address the risks of climate change, there is growing debate about the use of carbon offsets in achieving net-zero emissions. We think there’s room for a measure of offsets to achieve carbon neutrality, provided best practices are followed.
Valuing The Automotive Industry
Although electric cars will become predominant, the industry will remain highly competitive and capital intensive. Over the next decade, it will be difficult for investors in auto manufacturers to earn meaningfully positive stock returns with the outlook for investment in electric vehicle specialists being particularly bleak.
Illegal Border Crossings To Hit Record 2 Million By Year-end
The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported last week it has arrested around 1.7 million people for illegal crossings at the southern border with Mexico between October 2020 and September 2021. This is an all-time high with migrants from Mexico making up the largest group of nationals arrested.
Comparing Robo-Advisors: Goldman, Vanguard, Schwab and Merrill
In addition to the robo-advisors discussed in Part I and Part II of our series, traditional investment companies, including Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, Schwab, and Merrill have developed their own robo-advisory services.
Inflation is a Wolverine
The media and the economics profession are treating inflation like it is a friendly puppy dog. They think you can take it out of its pen and play with it for a while. The popular theory is that you bring it out in a severe dip in economic activity and when the economy gets back on its feet, you kindly ask inflation to crawl back into its pen like any good puppy dog would do.
U.S. CEO of Crypto-Focused Broker Has Regulation on Her Mind
In August, the Israeli brokerage eToro hired Lule Demmissie, a longtime wealth-management director at TD Ameritrade and, more recently, president at Ally Invest, to head its growing presence in the U.S. Demmissie, who moved to the U.S. from Ethiopia when she was a teenager, has a lot on her plate.
Part 2: What To Do In The Case Of Sustained Inflation
We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the system (much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.
Is Custody Free? The New Generation of Custodial Options for Advisors
There’s a fallacy among advisors that selecting a platform partner is an either/or proposition: a TAMP or an open-architecture solution. There is a middle ground. Some describe it as a “full-service portfolio management platform.” The team at SEI calls it a TechstodianSM.
Gundlach – When the Dollar Heads Lower, Emerging Markets will Outperform
Jeffrey Gundlach’s highest conviction investment idea is that the dollar will head lower over the long term. That will lead to a strong rally in emerging equities, and they will outperform U.S. stocks.
Berkshire: Pinch Hit Weschler
We have argued for years that the biggest mistake being made by Berkshire Hathaway was not giving shareholders access to the thoughts and investment discipline of their two talented stock pickers, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs. After all, Buffett calls the shareholders “partners” and has not allowed his partners to understand anything about the strategies and results of upwards of $30 billion of shareholder capital.
Should Your Robo Adviser Include Guaranteed Income Products?
While robos are beneficial as they often invest in low-cost funds and ETFs, ideally, they should also include quality SPIAs and DIAs to simplify investment planning and allow retirees to spend more.
Gun Violence Hit Record In 2020 & 2021 Is Even Worse
Through the first six months of 2021, gunfire killed nearly 10,000 people in the United States, about 54 lives lost per day, according to data from the Gun Violence Archive, a nonprofit research organization.
C Is For A Customized Client Experience: Looking At The Holistic Planning Services Advisors Now Provide
If there is one experience common to us all during the global pandemic, it is that the spread of COVID-19 around the world caused everyone—young or old, rich or poor, male or female—to reassess our priorities.
Is Your Target-Date Fund Providing Enough Inflation Protection?
Inflation has been on the rise recently, raising concerns about long-run inflation and its impact on the spending power of those who can least afford it—investors approaching or already in retirement.
ESG is Not Enough: Why Intention Matters
In January, during the market frenzy which saw GameStop Corporation on stock go from approximately $20 to nearly $500 intraday within two weeks, some asked why the company did not capitalize on the demand by issuing shares.
If you could ask the world’s top central bankers what really terrifies them, I think the honest answer would usually be “deflation.” It is their greatest nightmare. They think a little inflation is good (thus the 2%+ target), and they’re confident they can subdue it if necessary. Deflation is a bigger problem.
Fintech Unicorn Stash Is Weighing Options for Going Public
Financial-technology firm Stash is exploring options for a market listing, such as merging with a special purpose acquisition company or a traditional initial public offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Archegos Blowup Signals Bank Complacency, Top Regulator Says
Archegos Capital Management’s implosion signals Wall Street has grown too complacent about potential threats building up in the economy, said Michael Hsu, the new acting chief of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Biden Dares Democrats to Shift Tax Burden to Wealthy Americans
Joe Biden took the riskiest step of his presidency with a call for higher taxes on the wealthy to fund a massive investment in the nation’s social safety net, betting he could sell the American public on sweeping change following a pandemic that exacerbated economic and social divides.
Seven Policy Proposals to Meet the Paris Agreement Objectives
The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2o Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.
Positive First-Quarter Data Point to a Global, Sustained Economic Boom
We’re more than ready to put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For the first time since this all started a year ago, more than one million people per day have been flying commercial in the U.S. for 30 straight days.
Yellen Backs Aligning U.S. Portfolios With Climate Goals
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday outlined her department’s plans on fighting climate change with remarks that are likely to ramp up a dispute with Republican lawmakers over the appropriate use of financial regulation on that front.
The Tools of the Rich Propel Poor Kids Through College
Educators have long struggled to help students like Tiaja Harley earn bachelor’s degrees, the surest route to the middle class. Raised by a single mother who earned minimum wage, Harley loved to read and was good at math and science in elementary school. Students like her do get into college, but the vast majority drop out.