A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
While no one knows what 2022 holds in store for investors, my concern is that it should not foster the same optimism as 2021.
Bob Huebscher’s mother passed away on December 23, 2021.
You might think that the IPO of electric-truck wunderkind Rivian Automotive Inc. — with its valuation soaring past $100 billion on zero revenue — perfectly captured the madness in autos in 2021.
For Americans under 50, inflation is little more than a theoretical concept. But for those of us born in the late 1950s and 1960s, the inflation of the 1970s was a formative experience we’d rather not repeat. Inflation was as much a part of our childhood as Covid is for today’s kids.
Cryptocurrencies had a blockbuster year in 2021 by almost any measure. Bitcoin, Ether and other coins jumped, reaching new highs far beyond their previous peaks.
As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read market and economic commentaries over the past 12 months.
It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year. I have also included some novels and books of general interest. Here is my list of winners and losers.
As investors and companies increasingly seek to address the risks of climate change, there is growing debate about the use of carbon offsets in achieving net-zero emissions. We think there’s room for a measure of offsets to achieve carbon neutrality, provided best practices are followed.
Oil edged higher after OPEC and its partners left themselves room to quickly adjust output plans if the pandemic drastically changes the market.
Although electric cars will become predominant, the industry will remain highly competitive and capital intensive. Over the next decade, it will be difficult for investors in auto manufacturers to earn meaningfully positive stock returns with the outlook for investment in electric vehicle specialists being particularly bleak.
The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported last week it has arrested around 1.7 million people for illegal crossings at the southern border with Mexico between October 2020 and September 2021. This is an all-time high with migrants from Mexico making up the largest group of nationals arrested.
As predicted by financial theory, stocks of companies with positive ESG records underperformed the market. But the problems for ESG investors don’t stop there.
In addition to the robo-advisors discussed in Part I and Part II of our series, traditional investment companies, including Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, Schwab, and Merrill have developed their own robo-advisory services.
Given record profit margins and valuations, there is little upside, especially if inflation remains problematic. Throw stagflation into the formula, and the outlook is bleak.
The media and the economics profession are treating inflation like it is a friendly puppy dog. They think you can take it out of its pen and play with it for a while. The popular theory is that you bring it out in a severe dip in economic activity and when the economy gets back on its feet, you kindly ask inflation to crawl back into its pen like any good puppy dog would do.
In part two of this series, I review three additional robos: Albert, Ellevest, and Stash.
With so many robo-advisor choices, individuals are struggling with which one to use.
In August, the Israeli brokerage eToro hired Lule Demmissie, a longtime wealth-management director at TD Ameritrade and, more recently, president at Ally Invest, to head its growing presence in the U.S. Demmissie, who moved to the U.S. from Ethiopia when she was a teenager, has a lot on her plate.
Investors and financial advisors alike want to understand the fascinating trends that are transforming the investment industry.
For years climate scientists have warned about the ferocious wildfires and hurricanes that are now overwhelming many communities.
We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the system (much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.
There’s a fallacy among advisors that selecting a platform partner is an either/or proposition: a TAMP or an open-architecture solution. There is a middle ground. Some describe it as a “full-service portfolio management platform.” The team at SEI calls it a TechstodianSM.
A client engaged us about three months ago. But based on the time we’ve worked together, I do not enjoy or like him.
The expectations our clients and prospects have for technology are continually evolving and we must evolve with them.
Grim as things seem, most of us are in better shape than we’d be in a higher rate environment. Before inquiring about the strength of the product purchased from my local cannabis outlet, let me explain.
Jeffrey Gundlach’s highest conviction investment idea is that the dollar will head lower over the long term. That will lead to a strong rally in emerging equities, and they will outperform U.S. stocks.
Vivek Ramaswamy’s new book, Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America’s Social Justice Scam, is addressed to what he believes are the evils of corporate America adopting a ”woke” posture and taking it upon itself to enforce woke-ness.
We have argued for years that the biggest mistake being made by Berkshire Hathaway was not giving shareholders access to the thoughts and investment discipline of their two talented stock pickers, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs. After all, Buffett calls the shareholders “partners” and has not allowed his partners to understand anything about the strategies and results of upwards of $30 billion of shareholder capital.
While robos are beneficial as they often invest in low-cost funds and ETFs, ideally, they should also include quality SPIAs and DIAs to simplify investment planning and allow retirees to spend more.
Through the first six months of 2021, gunfire killed nearly 10,000 people in the United States, about 54 lives lost per day, according to data from the Gun Violence Archive, a nonprofit research organization.
If there is one experience common to us all during the global pandemic, it is that the spread of COVID-19 around the world caused everyone—young or old, rich or poor, male or female—to reassess our priorities.
For many, paying off debt and putting money away for retirement are the first financial goals to work toward.
Inflation has been on the rise recently, raising concerns about long-run inflation and its impact on the spending power of those who can least afford it—investors approaching or already in retirement.
Bill Gross and his wife pleaded not guilty Tuesday to charges they violated a court order to stop bothering their Southern California neighbor with excessively loud music.
Xi has been trying to balance economic freedom and authoritarian control and it’s not working like it used to. Today we’ll review some recent events that illustrate where Xi went wrong.
Is the retail investor rampage over?
For years, David Horowitz at Agilon Capital was a rare breed in the bond market: a quant in a notoriously old-school business where prices were a call rather than a click away.
I generally try to avoid political commentaries in Forecasts & Trends, although I never hesitate to make it clear I am a conservative on most issues.
In January, during the market frenzy which saw GameStop Corporation on stock go from approximately $20 to nearly $500 intraday within two weeks, some asked why the company did not capitalize on the demand by issuing shares.
Disappointing returns for healthcare stocks through the market’s recovery from the pandemic have raised concerns about the sector.
Far from signaling the return of significant inflation, temporary price increases are exactly what one would expect in a recovery following an economic shutdown.
If you could ask the world’s top central bankers what really terrifies them, I think the honest answer would usually be “deflation.” It is their greatest nightmare. They think a little inflation is good (thus the 2%+ target), and they’re confident they can subdue it if necessary. Deflation is a bigger problem.
Financial-technology firm Stash is exploring options for a market listing, such as merging with a special purpose acquisition company or a traditional initial public offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Archegos Capital Management’s implosion signals Wall Street has grown too complacent about potential threats building up in the economy, said Michael Hsu, the new acting chief of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Last week I teased you about the China panel, so that seems like a good place to start. We’ll review that conversation and then bring in some China comments from later sessions.
The world’s largest SPAC – Pershing Square’s “tontine” – is “deeply engaged” in a transaction that could close in the next few weeks, according to Bill Ackman.
This is where the evolution happens, and a firm innovates to thrive in the future.
Joe Biden took the riskiest step of his presidency with a call for higher taxes on the wealthy to fund a massive investment in the nation’s social safety net, betting he could sell the American public on sweeping change following a pandemic that exacerbated economic and social divides.
Along with learning the importance of saying "yes ma'am” and “no sir," my southern upbringing taught me the value of a handwritten note.
The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2o Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.
We’re more than ready to put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For the first time since this all started a year ago, more than one million people per day have been flying commercial in the U.S. for 30 straight days.
Floating-rate notes can help lower a portfolio’s sensitivity to interest rate changes, but they aren’t necessarily the secret weapon to combat a rising-rate environment.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday outlined her department’s plans on fighting climate change with remarks that are likely to ramp up a dispute with Republican lawmakers over the appropriate use of financial regulation on that front.
Educators have long struggled to help students like Tiaja Harley earn bachelor’s degrees, the surest route to the middle class. Raised by a single mother who earned minimum wage, Harley loved to read and was good at math and science in elementary school. Students like her do get into college, but the vast majority drop out.
Senate Democrats launched their effort to pass sweeping voting rights legislation Wednesday, which could become the centerpiece of an attempt to weaken the chamber’s filibuster rule.
There are many ways to go wrong in choosing a TAMP. Here are two no one is talking about.
If you’re fond of the term “mind candy” to describe novel, intriguing, and insightful concepts, then The WEIRDest People in the World is an eight-pound Costco box of it.
Senator Elizabeth Warren said IRS funding should be bolstered so the richest Americans get audited about once every three years as part of her proposed 2% annual tax on wealth in excess of $50 million.
Practicing good social media etiquette is critical in the digital economy.
We hope you enjoy Harold Evensky's latest NewsLetter.
Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.
I offer 15 explanations for the bubble in stock prices and a single explanation for the one in bond prices. Those bubbles could deflate for any of 10 reasons I also identify, severely diminishing the retirement savings of baby boomers.
Joe Biden’s administration has dedicated its first few weeks in office to spending more money on pandemic relief -- and shrugged off warnings that the economy may overheat as a result.
Fortunately, human behavior has a history of repeating itself at extremes. The worst buying decisions are made at the top. Just like bonds, the convexity is true when yields rise going forward. It’s a slippery slope and could be vexing.
2021 has certainly started off interesting. From Reddit readers chasing the most heavily shorted stocks, to the new Administration discussing more stimulus, investors have had plenty to deal with. A market review seems appropriate as the bulls seem to remain bulletproof even as the mania grows.
The Fed recognizes their ongoing monetary interventions have created financial risks in terms of asset bubbles. They are also aware that most policy tools are likely ineffective at mitigating financial risks in the future. Such leaves them being dependent on expanding their balance sheet as their primary weapon.
For all Millennial readers, if you visited a casino in your lifetime only to see your money quickly disappear, you have not seen anything compared to trading versus professionals. So to all you Robinhood traders I say, “Welcome to the Jungle.”
The 2020s are going to be about rifle shots, not the shotgun approach of index funds.
The forceful rise of the markets from March depths continued in the fourth quarter. After stalling out in early Fall, market participants floored the accelerator in November with vaccine approval in tow and the election overhang in the rearview.
Venezuela’s hyperinflation, Japan’s experiment in MMT and China’s rise to global leadership carry ominous lessons for the U.S. and investors in its markets.
“Maybe this time is different. Those words, supposedly the most dangerous to utter in the investing realm, came to mind amid the frenzied pops in the highly anticipated initial public offerings recently.” That quote was from Randall Forsyth discussing why the current market mania reminds him of the “Shades of 1999.”
The two Georgia Senate runoff races on January 5 will be among the most important elections in our lifetimes, whether you are a conservative or a liberal. As a result, enormous and unprecedented amounts of outside money are gushing into these runoffs.
Managed accounts are a solution to financial security, not a “threat.”
The growing use of managed accounts within 401(k) plans is threatening the financial security of plan participants and the integrity of those advisors who recommend them.
For those interested in investing in disruptive technologies, the path can be both rewarding and complex. Capturing the growth of robotics, AI, and healthcare tech requires in-depth research paired with a diversified approach. In this webinar, you’ll learn about the companies at the forefront of this technology revolution and how to gain exposure with three unique, global portfolios.
Join ROBO Global for a discussion on the best ways for investors to capitalize on the robotics, AI, and healthcare tech revolution.
Key takeaways include:
My wife brought me a box of ornaments that my mother has given to us over the years. I decided to check what I could sell them for on eBay (EBAY). What a great way to look at what is going on in equity capital markets!
A new normal is the norm. Changes are inevitable and therefore imaginable, even during this era of ever-growing technological breakthroughs such as cryptocurrencies, blockchain, robo-everything, 5G, EVs, AVs, AI, VR, AR, and IoT.1 We remember when ecosystem referred to a Costa Rican rain forest.
Restaurants already endured lengthy shutdowns that hobbled the industry. Now, a new wave of bans on indoor dining from Philadelphia to Seattle is threatening the weakened industry.
As investors look for signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis, they have a dizzying array of indicators to choose from. We’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way.
History does not repeat, but it rhymes, as Mark Twain observed. As such, we are struck by the eerie and dangerous parallels between today’s markets and the markets back in 1999. Back then, Value investing and Value managers were under the gun for having underperformed their Growth brethren for too long.
With just two days remaining before the final votes are cast, President Donald Trump’s obstacles to re-election look insurmountable. The pandemic he wished would miraculously go away is entering its third wave.
Clients are surprised when I request copies of their tax returns. But when they see the process I use to save them money – tax “alpha” – they often wish April 15 came more often.
I meet few humble advisors. Most are supremely confident in their knowledge of all things financial. This confidence is rarely justified.
We would like to think that investing is a science, but, alas, it is not. Water freezes at 32 degrees. Light travels at 186,000 miles per second. We look for similar rules in investing. There are none.
We are earlier than usual this month because of the upcoming presidential election. See why a US constitutional crisis could unfold in the days and weeks to come if Trump delivers on his earlier ‘promise’ not to accept the outcome, should he lose on the 3rd November.
Jeremy Grantham has made a science of studying asset bubbles, correctly predicting the path of the Japanese, dot-com and housing overvaluations. Today’s bubble in U.S. equities is unlike any other, he says, but it will burst in months, if not weeks.
Gun sales in the US have gone through the roof in 2020, especially since the widespread protests turned violent last spring in many large cities across the US. Over three million more guns have been sold since March than occurred in the same period a year ago.
To some critics, Trump’s behavior and decision-making process may seem erratic, but I believe they make a sort of sense when viewed through the lens of game theory.
There are nine reasons Trump may still win, but none seem likely.
Robo Advisors
The Shipping Industry Has Never Been So Profitable as It Is Now
A “boatload” of news this week suggests that the shipping industry continues to look very attractive from an investing point of view. Global cargo carriers are estimated to have recorded $150 billion in profits in 2021, the first time they’ve collectively reached that figure in a single year.
The 2022 Outlook Part 1 - Tailwinds Shift to Headwinds
While no one knows what 2022 holds in store for investors, my concern is that it should not foster the same optimism as 2021.
Lucille Pion Huebscher (July 28, 1927 - December 23, 2021)
Bob Huebscher’s mother passed away on December 23, 2021.
Cars Are Suddenly Worth $3 Trillion, And It’s Not All Tesla
You might think that the IPO of electric-truck wunderkind Rivian Automotive Inc. — with its valuation soaring past $100 billion on zero revenue — perfectly captured the madness in autos in 2021.
Think Old Folks Are Too Scared of Inflation? Listen to This
For Americans under 50, inflation is little more than a theoretical concept. But for those of us born in the late 1950s and 1960s, the inflation of the 1970s was a formative experience we’d rather not repeat. Inflation was as much a part of our childhood as Covid is for today’s kids.
Crypto’s Wild 2021 Will Go Down as One for the Ages
Cryptocurrencies had a blockbuster year in 2021 by almost any measure. Bitcoin, Ether and other coins jumped, reaching new highs far beyond their previous peaks.
Our Top 10 Most Popular Market Commentaries of 2021
As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read market and economic commentaries over the past 12 months.
The Best and Worst Investment (and other) Books of 2021
It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year. I have also included some novels and books of general interest. Here is my list of winners and losers.
Six Best Practices for Carbon Offsets
As investors and companies increasingly seek to address the risks of climate change, there is growing debate about the use of carbon offsets in achieving net-zero emissions. We think there’s room for a measure of offsets to achieve carbon neutrality, provided best practices are followed.
Oil Rises as OPEC+ Leaves Door Open for Quick Change of Plans
Oil edged higher after OPEC and its partners left themselves room to quickly adjust output plans if the pandemic drastically changes the market.
Valuing The Automotive Industry
Although electric cars will become predominant, the industry will remain highly competitive and capital intensive. Over the next decade, it will be difficult for investors in auto manufacturers to earn meaningfully positive stock returns with the outlook for investment in electric vehicle specialists being particularly bleak.
Illegal Border Crossings To Hit Record 2 Million By Year-end
The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported last week it has arrested around 1.7 million people for illegal crossings at the southern border with Mexico between October 2020 and September 2021. This is an all-time high with migrants from Mexico making up the largest group of nationals arrested.
The Intrinsic Futility of ES(G) Investing
As predicted by financial theory, stocks of companies with positive ESG records underperformed the market. But the problems for ESG investors don’t stop there.
Comparing Robo-Advisors: Goldman, Vanguard, Schwab and Merrill
In addition to the robo-advisors discussed in Part I and Part II of our series, traditional investment companies, including Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, Schwab, and Merrill have developed their own robo-advisory services.
Persistent Inflation Poses a Genuine Threat to Stock Prices
Given record profit margins and valuations, there is little upside, especially if inflation remains problematic. Throw stagflation into the formula, and the outlook is bleak.
Inflation is a Wolverine
The media and the economics profession are treating inflation like it is a friendly puppy dog. They think you can take it out of its pen and play with it for a while. The popular theory is that you bring it out in a severe dip in economic activity and when the economy gets back on its feet, you kindly ask inflation to crawl back into its pen like any good puppy dog would do.
Comparing Robo-Advisors: Albert, Stash, Ellevest
In part two of this series, I review three additional robos: Albert, Ellevest, and Stash.
Comparing Robo-Advisors: Digit, Acorns, Betterment, Wealthfront
With so many robo-advisor choices, individuals are struggling with which one to use.
U.S. CEO of Crypto-Focused Broker Has Regulation on Her Mind
In August, the Israeli brokerage eToro hired Lule Demmissie, a longtime wealth-management director at TD Ameritrade and, more recently, president at Ally Invest, to head its growing presence in the U.S. Demmissie, who moved to the U.S. from Ethiopia when she was a teenager, has a lot on her plate.
Digital Trends Impacting Investors and Advisors
Investors and financial advisors alike want to understand the fascinating trends that are transforming the investment industry.
A Climate Reckoning Is Coming for the World’s Government Debt
For years climate scientists have warned about the ferocious wildfires and hurricanes that are now overwhelming many communities.
Part 2: What To Do In The Case Of Sustained Inflation
We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the system (much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.
Is Custody Free? The New Generation of Custodial Options for Advisors
There’s a fallacy among advisors that selecting a platform partner is an either/or proposition: a TAMP or an open-architecture solution. There is a middle ground. Some describe it as a “full-service portfolio management platform.” The team at SEI calls it a TechstodianSM.
I Don’t Like One of My Clients
A client engaged us about three months ago. But based on the time we’ve worked together, I do not enjoy or like him.
Technology Strengthens Client Relationships, Attracts New Investors
The expectations our clients and prospects have for technology are continually evolving and we must evolve with them.
Who Wins with Low Interest Rates?
Grim as things seem, most of us are in better shape than we’d be in a higher rate environment. Before inquiring about the strength of the product purchased from my local cannabis outlet, let me explain.
Gundlach – When the Dollar Heads Lower, Emerging Markets will Outperform
Jeffrey Gundlach’s highest conviction investment idea is that the dollar will head lower over the long term. That will lead to a strong rally in emerging equities, and they will outperform U.S. stocks.
How Bad is “Woke” Capitalism?
Vivek Ramaswamy’s new book, Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America’s Social Justice Scam, is addressed to what he believes are the evils of corporate America adopting a ”woke” posture and taking it upon itself to enforce woke-ness.
Berkshire: Pinch Hit Weschler
We have argued for years that the biggest mistake being made by Berkshire Hathaway was not giving shareholders access to the thoughts and investment discipline of their two talented stock pickers, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs. After all, Buffett calls the shareholders “partners” and has not allowed his partners to understand anything about the strategies and results of upwards of $30 billion of shareholder capital.
Should Your Robo Adviser Include Guaranteed Income Products?
While robos are beneficial as they often invest in low-cost funds and ETFs, ideally, they should also include quality SPIAs and DIAs to simplify investment planning and allow retirees to spend more.
Gun Violence Hit Record In 2020 & 2021 Is Even Worse
Through the first six months of 2021, gunfire killed nearly 10,000 people in the United States, about 54 lives lost per day, according to data from the Gun Violence Archive, a nonprofit research organization.
C Is For A Customized Client Experience: Looking At The Holistic Planning Services Advisors Now Provide
If there is one experience common to us all during the global pandemic, it is that the spread of COVID-19 around the world caused everyone—young or old, rich or poor, male or female—to reassess our priorities.
So, You've Maxed Out Your Retirement Contributions. Now What?: Erin Lowry
For many, paying off debt and putting money away for retirement are the first financial goals to work toward.
Is Your Target-Date Fund Providing Enough Inflation Protection?
Inflation has been on the rise recently, raising concerns about long-run inflation and its impact on the spending power of those who can least afford it—investors approaching or already in retirement.
Bill Gross to Contest Neighbor’s Latest Complaint About Loud Music
Bill Gross and his wife pleaded not guilty Tuesday to charges they violated a court order to stop bothering their Southern California neighbor with excessively loud music.
Xi’s Big Mistake
Xi has been trying to balance economic freedom and authoritarian control and it’s not working like it used to. Today we’ll review some recent events that illustrate where Xi went wrong.
Technically Speaking: Is The Retail Investor Rampage Over?
Is the retail investor rampage over?
Wall Street’s Math Whizzes Are Racing to Wire Up the Bond Market
For years, David Horowitz at Agilon Capital was a rare breed in the bond market: a quant in a notoriously old-school business where prices were a call rather than a click away.
Democrats Try To Hijack Voting Laws/Rights
I generally try to avoid political commentaries in Forecasts & Trends, although I never hesitate to make it clear I am a conservative on most issues.
ESG is Not Enough: Why Intention Matters
In January, during the market frenzy which saw GameStop Corporation on stock go from approximately $20 to nearly $500 intraday within two weeks, some asked why the company did not capitalize on the demand by issuing shares.
Healthcare Stocks: Four Questions for the Recovery
Disappointing returns for healthcare stocks through the market’s recovery from the pandemic have raised concerns about the sector.
The Inflation Red Herring
Far from signaling the return of significant inflation, temporary price increases are exactly what one would expect in a recovery following an economic shutdown.
Deflation Talk
If you could ask the world’s top central bankers what really terrifies them, I think the honest answer would usually be “deflation.” It is their greatest nightmare. They think a little inflation is good (thus the 2%+ target), and they’re confident they can subdue it if necessary. Deflation is a bigger problem.
Fintech Unicorn Stash Is Weighing Options for Going Public
Financial-technology firm Stash is exploring options for a market listing, such as merging with a special purpose acquisition company or a traditional initial public offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Archegos Blowup Signals Bank Complacency, Top Regulator Says
Archegos Capital Management’s implosion signals Wall Street has grown too complacent about potential threats building up in the economy, said Michael Hsu, the new acting chief of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
A Giant Consumptive Force
Last week I teased you about the China panel, so that seems like a good place to start. We’ll review that conversation and then bring in some China comments from later sessions.
Bill Ackman’s SPAC is “Deeply Engaged” in a Transaction
The world’s largest SPAC – Pershing Square’s “tontine” – is “deeply engaged” in a transaction that could close in the next few weeks, according to Bill Ackman.
How Firms Can Evolve for the Future Before It Arrives
This is where the evolution happens, and a firm innovates to thrive in the future.
Biden Dares Democrats to Shift Tax Burden to Wealthy Americans
Joe Biden took the riskiest step of his presidency with a call for higher taxes on the wealthy to fund a massive investment in the nation’s social safety net, betting he could sell the American public on sweeping change following a pandemic that exacerbated economic and social divides.
The Lost Art of the Handwritten Note
Along with learning the importance of saying "yes ma'am” and “no sir," my southern upbringing taught me the value of a handwritten note.
Seven Policy Proposals to Meet the Paris Agreement Objectives
The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2o Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.
Positive First-Quarter Data Point to a Global, Sustained Economic Boom
We’re more than ready to put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For the first time since this all started a year ago, more than one million people per day have been flying commercial in the U.S. for 30 straight days.
Rising Rates: When to Consider Floating-Rate Notes
Floating-rate notes can help lower a portfolio’s sensitivity to interest rate changes, but they aren’t necessarily the secret weapon to combat a rising-rate environment.
Yellen Backs Aligning U.S. Portfolios With Climate Goals
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday outlined her department’s plans on fighting climate change with remarks that are likely to ramp up a dispute with Republican lawmakers over the appropriate use of financial regulation on that front.
The Tools of the Rich Propel Poor Kids Through College
Educators have long struggled to help students like Tiaja Harley earn bachelor’s degrees, the surest route to the middle class. Raised by a single mother who earned minimum wage, Harley loved to read and was good at math and science in elementary school. Students like her do get into college, but the vast majority drop out.
Voting Rights Fight Emerges as Key to Filibuster Overhaul
Senate Democrats launched their effort to pass sweeping voting rights legislation Wednesday, which could become the centerpiece of an attempt to weaken the chamber’s filibuster rule.
The Two Worst Mistakes Advisors Make When Hiring a TAMP
There are many ways to go wrong in choosing a TAMP. Here are two no one is talking about.
Understanding the Source of Western Wealth
If you’re fond of the term “mind candy” to describe novel, intriguing, and insightful concepts, then The WEIRDest People in the World is an eight-pound Costco box of it.
Warren Backs More Audits for Rich as Part of Wealth Tax Plan
Senator Elizabeth Warren said IRS funding should be bolstered so the richest Americans get audited about once every three years as part of her proposed 2% annual tax on wealth in excess of $50 million.
A Requiem to Bad LinkedIn Solicitations
Practicing good social media etiquette is critical in the digital economy.
NewsLetter - February 2021
We hope you enjoy Harold Evensky's latest NewsLetter.
Spectate or Speculate
Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.
15 Explanations for the Bubble in Stock Prices
I offer 15 explanations for the bubble in stock prices and a single explanation for the one in bond prices. Those bubbles could deflate for any of 10 reasons I also identify, severely diminishing the retirement savings of baby boomers.
Biden Presidency Starts With a Giant Bet on Run-It-Hot Economics
Joe Biden’s administration has dedicated its first few weeks in office to spending more money on pandemic relief -- and shrugged off warnings that the economy may overheat as a result.
Vexing Today’s Convex Pricing Behavior
Fortunately, human behavior has a history of repeating itself at extremes. The worst buying decisions are made at the top. Just like bonds, the convexity is true when yields rise going forward. It’s a slippery slope and could be vexing.
Bull Mania & The Charge Of The Light Brigade
2021 has certainly started off interesting. From Reddit readers chasing the most heavily shorted stocks, to the new Administration discussing more stimulus, investors have had plenty to deal with. A market review seems appropriate as the bulls seem to remain bulletproof even as the mania grows.
The Fed, Zombies, & The Pathway To Japanification
The Fed recognizes their ongoing monetary interventions have created financial risks in terms of asset bubbles. They are also aware that most policy tools are likely ineffective at mitigating financial risks in the future. Such leaves them being dependent on expanding their balance sheet as their primary weapon.
Welcome to the Jungle
For all Millennial readers, if you visited a casino in your lifetime only to see your money quickly disappear, you have not seen anything compared to trading versus professionals. So to all you Robinhood traders I say, “Welcome to the Jungle.”
Forecast 2021: The Stock Market
The 2020s are going to be about rifle shots, not the shotgun approach of index funds.
Winter Quarterly Commentary
The forceful rise of the markets from March depths continued in the fourth quarter. After stalling out in early Fall, market participants floored the accelerator in November with vaccine approval in tow and the election overhang in the rearview.
Ominous Lessons from Venezuela, Japan and China
Venezuela’s hyperinflation, Japan’s experiment in MMT and China’s rise to global leadership carry ominous lessons for the U.S. and investors in its markets.
Shades Of 1999 As “Market Mania” Returns In 2020
“Maybe this time is different. Those words, supposedly the most dangerous to utter in the investing realm, came to mind amid the frenzied pops in the highly anticipated initial public offerings recently.” That quote was from Randall Forsyth discussing why the current market mania reminds him of the “Shades of 1999.”
Georgia Runoffs To Decide Direction Of The Country
The two Georgia Senate runoff races on January 5 will be among the most important elections in our lifetimes, whether you are a conservative or a liberal. As a result, enormous and unprecedented amounts of outside money are gushing into these runoffs.
401(k) Managed Accounts Are a Solution to Financial Security, Not a “Threat”
Managed accounts are a solution to financial security, not a “threat.”
The Threat of Managed Accounts for Plan Advisors
The growing use of managed accounts within 401(k) plans is threatening the financial security of plan participants and the integrity of those advisors who recommend them.
Investing in Disruptive Tech: Capturing the Growth of Robotics, AI & Health Tech
For those interested in investing in disruptive technologies, the path can be both rewarding and complex. Capturing the growth of robotics, AI, and healthcare tech requires in-depth research paired with a diversified approach. In this webinar, you’ll learn about the companies at the forefront of this technology revolution and how to gain exposure with three unique, global portfolios.
Join ROBO Global for a discussion on the best ways for investors to capitalize on the robotics, AI, and healthcare tech revolution.
Key takeaways include:
Reminiscences of an eBay Operator
My wife brought me a box of ornaments that my mother has given to us over the years. I decided to check what I could sell them for on eBay (EBAY). What a great way to look at what is going on in equity capital markets!
The New Abnormal
A new normal is the norm. Changes are inevitable and therefore imaginable, even during this era of ever-growing technological breakthroughs such as cryptocurrencies, blockchain, robo-everything, 5G, EVs, AVs, AI, VR, AR, and IoT.1 We remember when ecosystem referred to a Costa Rican rain forest.
Indoor Dining Goes Dark Across U.S., Deepening Restaurants’ Pain
Restaurants already endured lengthy shutdowns that hobbled the industry. Now, a new wave of bans on indoor dining from Philadelphia to Seattle is threatening the weakened industry.
Crisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (November Update)
As investors look for signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis, they have a dizzying array of indicators to choose from. We’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way.
Tonight, We Leave the Party Like It’s 1999
History does not repeat, but it rhymes, as Mark Twain observed. As such, we are struck by the eerie and dangerous parallels between today’s markets and the markets back in 1999. Back then, Value investing and Value managers were under the gun for having underperformed their Growth brethren for too long.
Three Words That Haunt Joe Biden: ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’: Niall Ferguson
With just two days remaining before the final votes are cast, President Donald Trump’s obstacles to re-election look insurmountable. The pandemic he wished would miraculously go away is entering its third wave.
How to Generate Alpha from Clients’ Tax Returns
Clients are surprised when I request copies of their tax returns. But when they see the process I use to save them money – tax “alpha” – they often wish April 15 came more often.
Being Humble is Better than Being Right
I meet few humble advisors. Most are supremely confident in their knowledge of all things financial. This confidence is rarely justified.
Don’t Believe the Rules in Investing
We would like to think that investing is a science, but, alas, it is not. Water freezes at 32 degrees. Light travels at 186,000 miles per second. We look for similar rules in investing. There are none.
A Constitutional Crisis in the Making?
We are earlier than usual this month because of the upcoming presidential election. See why a US constitutional crisis could unfold in the days and weeks to come if Trump delivers on his earlier ‘promise’ not to accept the outcome, should he lose on the 3rd November.
Jeremy Grantham: The Market Bubble Will Burst in Weeks or Months
Jeremy Grantham has made a science of studying asset bubbles, correctly predicting the path of the Japanese, dot-com and housing overvaluations. Today’s bubble in U.S. equities is unlike any other, he says, but it will burst in months, if not weeks.
Gun Sales Break Records In 2020... But Why?
Gun sales in the US have gone through the roof in 2020, especially since the widespread protests turned violent last spring in many large cities across the US. Over three million more guns have been sold since March than occurred in the same period a year ago.
Some Are Betting on Red, Some on Blue. I'm Betting on Gold
To some critics, Trump’s behavior and decision-making process may seem erratic, but I believe they make a sort of sense when viewed through the lens of game theory.
Niall Ferguson: A Craving for Normalcy Spells the End of a Populist Presidency
There are nine reasons Trump may still win, but none seem likely.