Portfolio Building

Recent warnings from corporate executives and rapidly declining regional manufacturing surveys make me wonder if a recession has already started.

The terms "value" and "growth" have been blurred. What appears to be a value stock may be in its reputation only.

The U.S. debt cannot be paid, even in inflated dollars. Serious inflation is inevitable that will crash stock and bond markets, in addition to devaluing the dollar.

Liquidity is fading due to the Fed, and therefore volatility is on the rise. Illiquid and volatile markets are not conducive to long-term wealth generation.

The BOJ is trapped. It is conducting unlimited QE to keep rates low and weaken the yen, which promotes inflation.

Forward-thinking advisors have been searching for and employing analytics very carefully. This series will explore some of these metrics, along with their benefits and pitfalls. Today’s topic is capital markets assumptions.

In propping up Japan's economy and financial markets, its central bank indirectly provided liquidity to the world's financial markets. But the BOJ could unleash a liquidity vacuum felt around the world.

Does a risk-free bond with 7% yield interest you? If so, read about the red-headed stepchild of the bond world that is finally attracting investors.

Does the scenario below sound likely? If so, you are among the thousands of RIAs who are likely to lose significant assets over the next decade.

The more the Fed decides to dance with inflation and ignore the bond market and economy, the more we should expect stock prices to fall.

Antti Ilmanen’s Investing Amid Low Expected Returns updates his 2011 Expected Returns, a volume considered by many the definitive work on the subject.

This article explores the problem vexing Russia and its trade partners. I explore how the threat and use of sanctions may force some countries to contemplate weaning off the world's reserve currency.

The poor performance of factor-driven value strategies over the past decade has raised the question of whether intangible assets, such as patents and proprietary software, are properly treated. New research confirms that intangibles indeed distort valuation metrices, but there is no consensus on how to address the problem.

With QE finished and QT on the horizon, I answer a few questions to help you better appreciate what QT is, how it will operate, and discuss how draining liquidity will affect markets.

I’ll take an order of flat fees (otherwise known as retainers) with a side of financial planning. Customers are lining up out the door for this.

Filling out your March Madness bracket provides insight into how investors select assets, structure portfolios, and react during volatile market periods.

The Windfall Profits Tax Bill doesn’t penalize energy companies. It punishes consumers with more inflation. Further, it uses a faulty assumption to help gain support from the public.

While higher gas prices may be welcome news to the oil industry, the rest of us should be concerned. It is a glaring recession warning. Over the last 40 years, higher gas prices have been linked to economic stagnation and recessions.

In this interview, Peter Essele, vice president, investment management and research, at Commonwealth Financial Network, explains why investors should view the volatility created by the pandemic and geopolitical events as an opportunity to add risk to their portfolios.

Fiscal spending is normalizing quickly, and the Fed is warning investors it is ready to remove the stimulus. Such a reversal of monetary and fiscal liquidity does not guarantee a reversal of asset prices, but the odds of a bear market are increasing.

Interest-only variable annuity policies have zero commissions, no surrender charges and low annual M&E and admin fees plus various subaccounts that span traditional and alternative investment strategies.

I propose a strategy that can produce larger price gains or losses than bonds and higher yields than traditional bond funds or ETFs. If yields decline soon, investors can expect double-digit returns in a relatively short period.

The term “value” is being grossly misapplied.

The strike price on the Fed put has moved significantly. The Fed may sit idly by if markets voice displeasure with abrupt changes in monetary policy.

I examine two biases that often handcuff investors and push them to make the wrong decisions at the wrong time.

Large asset managers provide model portfolios for many purposes — as options in 401(k) plans, as blueprints for institutional clients and affiliated financial advisors, and as suggestions for unaffiliated investment advisors. These have the “lather, rinse, repeat” conflict of interest.

The Fed is walking a tightrope between instability and inflation. Can it successfully tame inflation without causing severe market dislocations?

A booming $4.9 trillion branch of the U.S. asset management industry is funneling investor cash into funds that are pricier and worse-performing than alternatives, new research claims.

What insights can we glean beyond last year’s impressive 28% return? How did it compare it to global equities? I will show you some of the winners and losers, and finish with a few observations on the VIX.

Stocks are priced for perfection. Bonds trade at historically low yields despite 7% inflation. What could go wrong?

While no one knows what 2022 holds in store for investors, my concern is that it should not foster the same optimism as 2021.

Here is how I nudge clients (sometimes not so gently) to where they should be on their portfolio.

MMT offers a new "logic" that allows the government to spend without facing the traditional constraints of debts and deficits. Is MMT too good to be true?

To obtain the best long-term risk-adjusted performance, investors should combine multiple trend-following factor strategies into a single portfolio.

In this interview, Spencer Logan discusses Harbor Capital’s recent launch of an active transparent ETF that uses a scientific approach to fixed income investing.

The dollar is on the rise, and with it comes underappreciated consequences.

The extreme volatility from November 26 to December 3 caused many clients to panic. By using deep analytics, advisors can illustrate that this episode – and others like it – were not that unusual.

Investors have no idea the most considerable risk to their portfolio is if the Fed cannot continue to be a market magician.

While I’m a huge proponent of passive and factor investing, the argument that direct indexing is akin to active management is imprecise.

This article contrasts the valuations and environments now and in 2000 to ask if it's time to leave the party or stay and rock on. I provide a statistical analysis showing the downside risk facing the S&P 500.

The financial services field is one of the most regulated in the U.S. Our regulations are as complex as those in the medical field. This makes sense; our health and our money are two important pillars of wellbeing. Preventing harm to either can be a matter of life and death.

It was another tough week in a brutal year for bears. Despite being right about many aspects of inflation, monetary policy and the persistence of the coronavirus, equity bears who were expecting anything to put a meaningful brake on the stock market were again denied.

Regardless of which side of the aisle you are on, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act affects everyone financially and mentally, and advisors should prepare client money and minds for this historic (albeit non-transformational) event.

The economy is at maximum employment. Inflation is running red hot and increasingly showing signs it is persistent. Having neglected one mandate and largely fulfilled the other, why is the Fed so slow to reduce asset purchases and unwilling to contemplate hiking interest rates?

If easy money is the bedrock of valuations and the Fed is getting ready to shift the bedrock, investors best pay attention to market forecasts and how the Fed ultimately acts.