The way investors think about emerging markets has been evolving—along with the markets themselves. One thing we at Templeton Emerging Markets Group emphasize is that one can’t consider emerging markets as one asset class; the opportunities are very differentiated between regions, countries and markets, with different fundamentals shaping them.
After the run-up in the fourth quarter, both TIPS and comparable maturity Treasurys delivered positive returns during the first month of 2017. According to my estimates, TIPS posted a monthly return of 0.7%, modestly better than the 0.3% return on comparable maturity Treasurys.
The Trump administration's China-bashing strategy is based on the mistaken belief that a newly muscular US has all the leverage in dealing with its presumed adversary, and that any Chinese response is hardly worth considering. Nothing could be further from the truth.
As a result of the post-election sell-off in bonds, treasury inflation-protected securities recorded a loss of 3.0% in the 2016 fourth quarter, their worst performance since the 2013 second quarter.
Donald Trump's use of foreign trade as a lightning rod in his presidential campaign is not an uncommon tactic for candidates at either end of the political spectrum. What is unusual is that he has not moderated his anti-trade tone since winning, despite the potentially disastrous consequences for the US and the world.
What’s ahead for emerging markets in 2017? Stephen Dover, managing director and CIO of Templeton Emerging Markets Group and Franklin Local Asset Management, and Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, present their emerging-market equity outlook.
The US president-elect's economic strategy is severely flawed: its protectionist bias collides head-on with the imperative of increased US reliance on foreign saving and trade deficits in order to sustain economic growth. A saving-short, protectionist America is a country on a path to nowhere.
While the US election uncertainty may finally be behind us, whether and how pre-election rhetoric will ultimately be reflected in policy shifts remains unknown.
With its debt overhangs and property bubbles, its zombie state-owned enterprises and struggling banks, China is increasingly portrayed as the next disaster in a crisis-prone global economy. If the China bears are right, no country would be spared.