Commentary

Fed Seeks to Balance Competing Risks

Investors face mixed signals between the Federal Reserve’s policy guidance and recent economic developments.

Commentary

Trying to Make Apple Juice from Oranges: The Problem with Comparing Market Pricing and Fed Projections

As investors seek to pinpoint market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, it’s critical to consider not just rate projections and derivatives pricing, but the degree of uncertainty and distribution of outcomes.

Commentary

European Outlook: Less Downside Now, But Caution Still Warranted

Focusing on high quality and liquidity when taking risk in portfolios will be key in 2023, as pressure on monetary policy remains intense.

Commentary

Cyclical Outlook Key Takeaways: Strained Markets, Strong Bonds

After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges.

Commentary

ECB Hikes, and Indicates Higher Rates Coming

The European Central Bank is likely to continue hiking rates next year, but the end point remains uncertain.

Commentary

U.S. Inflation Eased More Than Expected in November as Fed Eyes Pause in Rate‑Hike Cycle Next Year

Falling prices for cars and holiday discounting contributed to softer U.S. inflation, creating more room for the Fed to potentially dial back its hawkish stance.

Commentary

Plan Design in an Inflation‑Sensitive World

A multi-real-asset strategy may help plan participants preserve and grow purchasing power, enhance portfolio diversification, and mitigate inflation risks.

Commentary

Higher Bond Yields Can Be Fundamental to a Recession Investing Playbook

How we’re thinking about investing against a backdrop of inflation uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and likely recession.

Commentary

What to Expect From Divided Government

A split U.S. Congress in 2023 will likely limit fiscal policy, but could be positive for equity markets.

Commentary

Risk‑Off, Yield‑On

With interest rates higher amid a challenging macro environment, we see a compelling case for bond allocations and are cautious about higher-risk investments.

Commentary

What’s Behind the Slowdown in U.S. Inflation

Core inflation came in below expectations for October and should moderate in 2023, but likely with bumps in the road ahead.

Commentary

Peak Inflation May Hint at Peak Rates in Emerging Markets

Inflation is receding and real interest rates are climbing in EM after a year of tightening monetary policy.

Commentary

Fed Sets Up a Pause, Not a Pivot

The Federal Reserve’s November statement included dovish language, but Fed Chair Powell warned investors not to expect the Fed to stray from its full focus on fighting inflation.

Commentary

ECB Promises More Rate Hikes, But the Language Softens

The central bank noted that substantial progress has been made in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation, and expressed concerns around growth and policy transmission lags.

Commentary

Surging September CPI Bolsters Case for Further Outsize Fed Hikes

Core inflation in the U.S. outpaced expectations for September and may fortify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish resolve.