In this presentation, we provide an overview of key IRA rules, regulations and what you need to know regarding recent changes. Even more important, we show you how to leverage IRA knowledge to attract individuals with eligible rollover assets, demonstrate benefits of working with a financial professional, and influence the value of personal guidance to beat the competition.
Join us for an interactive webinar with abrdn as we discuss the impact world events are having on the commodities markets, and how investors can leverage this uncorrelated asset class to help minimize volatility within their portfolios. We’ll discuss the merits of commodities in today’s environment and as a long-term strategic allocation.
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. The latest debt level is down 2.6% month-over-month.
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
Contrary to economic theory, in recent years funds with an ESG mandate have outperformed the broader market. New research shows that outperformance was caused by increased asset flows to so-called green stocks, raising the prospects for lower returns going forward.
Crypto curious stock investors are taking little comfort in the rebound in the shares of companies linked to the digital-asset world in the past week, with the sector underperforming just about every other risky corner of the financial markets this year by a wide margin.
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
Private equity bosses are finding history to be a lousy guide as they hunt for clues on how to work through the turmoil in global markets.
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
I often say that it is a market of stocks and not a stock market.
Late last year, investors who were clinging to the hope that inflation might be temporary took solace in the fact that real Treasury yields remained negative, a sign that bond investors might not be that worried about inflation.
Despite a lot of confident predictions, nobody knows what will happen at the Federal Reserve Wednesday, never mind what the impact will be on markets.
What are growth-oriented firms doing and how are they thinking differently about technology?
Recent experience shows that a third mandate – preventing financial instability – trumps the Fed’s two congressional mandates of full employment and low inflation.
A vague tweet by a founder of Three Arrows Capital, an influential hedge fund that has been liquidating crypto holdings as prices plummeted, is stirring fresh apprehension in an already shaken industry.
Here’s how financial marketers can repurpose virtual meetings and video content.
MicroStrategy Inc., ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund, Tesla Inc. and Twitter Inc. are what I’m watching to identify the ultimate capitulation point of this cycle.
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
With National 529 Day last month and graduation season underway, the cost of education is at the top of many people’s minds.
It started with bonds. Now even collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) come in green.
Not all value strategies have benefited equally during value stocks’ recent outperformance versus growth stocks.
Even as the US real estate market shows signs of cooling, inflation and higher interest rates are making it difficult for young house hunters to buy properties — at least on their own.
A wild year on Wall Street has traders fretting one of two extreme scenarios will engulf the $23 trillion Treasury market ahead: Either a fresh bond selloff thanks to red-hot inflation -- or a sustained rally on mounting recession risk that sends yields back toward historic lows.
Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.
Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.
Investors are shifting their focus from runaway inflation to slowing global growth as central banks hike rates to tame price pressures.
Homeowners should take a total-balance-sheet view when evaluating options for their mortgage.
The chance that all the necessary pieces will line up that way? Somewhere between slim and none, and as my dad used to say, “Slim left town.” And while my memory isn’t perfect, I don’t believe any speaker at the conference believed in the possibility of a soft landing. And even if we get one, we have serious problems that predate this inflation. They haven’t gone anywhere.
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
This morning's employment report for May showed a 390K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was above the Investing.com forecast of 325K jobs added. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%.
We strongly believe that the traditional benchmark-led approach to investing in emerging market debt can be far from optimal.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission is concerned that retail investors are being duped by “greenwashing.”
They are creations of easy credit, beneficiaries of central bank largesse. And now that the era of unconventional monetary policy is over, they’re facing a challenge like never before.
How can you put the “know, like, trust” element of relationship marketing to work for your business at scale?
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The outlook for credit amid rising inflation, monetary tightening, and war in Europe.
What do Netflix, Peloton Interactive, Coinbase, and Palantir Technologies have in common?
Liquidity is the lifeblood of the capital markets. It is the ease at which an asset can be turned into cash without disrupting the price of that asset. This was never really a concern in the US, whose markets are prized for being the deepest, most liquid in the world. It’s one reason why the dollar is the world’s dominant reserve currency.
Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports is a “declaration of war” that threatens to trigger mass migration and a global food crisis, a United Nations official said, adding to the dire warnings on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
With economies scrambling for alternatives to Russian fossil fuels, Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers perspective on single-country portfolio exposure to other world oil producers.
Investing during a recession can be a very difficult, and often dangerous, prospect.
Policymakers and forecasters were slow to change their mindset about inflation.
There’s no escaping the Federal Reserve (Fed) when it comes to investing these days.
While conventional wisdom says that rising interest rates are bad for stocks, it’s more accurate to say that rising rates tend to be bad for certain types of stocks.
The U.S. was experiencing some of the highest inflation in its history.
This week has seen a series of rapid contractions across the digital asset ecosystem. In a space that is well-known for volatility, even this week has stood out to observers.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
“What does a yellow light mean? Slow down!
Our weekly commentaries provide Euro Pacific Capital's latest thinking on developments in the global marketplace.
Credit market volatility this year has been extreme.
Plan for long-term Inflation that will be fought aggressively by the Fed, higher policy rates, and slower economic growth, according to Raghuram Rajan.
U.S. stocks are trading lower as another week begins on the heels of six-straight weekly losses for the S&P 500.
Hundreds of billions of dollars in ephemeral wealth evaporated as the price of Bitcoin plunged to its lowest point since 2020, down more than 50% in about six months. The exchange Coinbase dropped to about a fifth of last year’s initial public offering price.
In March of last year, we wrote an article entitled “Timing the End of the Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles”. Our conclusion for Bitcoin was that it was indeed in a bubble but that there was insufficient technical evidence at the time indicating its bursting.
Heightened market volatility has led to misconceptions about credit, in our view. We dispel four of them here.
With the world facing inflationary and geopolitical hurdles, economic growth is poised to slow. In this environment, investors in growth stocks must identify companies with the right features to overcome headwinds to earnings.
Liquidity is fading due to the Fed, and therefore volatility is on the rise. Illiquid and volatile markets are not conducive to long-term wealth generation.
Until recently, inflation and interest rates had been on a secular downtrend after peaking in the early 1980s.
When stocks are plunging, checking your investment accounts is risky business. The market turbulence is jarring for younger investors, who had gotten used to the idea that stocks always go up. And for those with a bit more experience, watching hard-earned money suddenly disappear is a terrible experience.
Investor interest and participation in private markets continues to grow.
The Milken Institute Global Conference continues in Beverly Hills, California, bringing together investors, dealmakers, power brokers and celebrities to discuss markets and megatrends. Academics, sports stars, entrepreneurs and politicians among the thousands coming to the Beverly Hilton for the event, which runs through Wednesday.
The BOJ is trapped. It is conducting unlimited QE to keep rates low and weaken the yen, which promotes inflation.
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have fallen for four consecutive weeks, and the S&P’s 8.8% drop last month marked its worst April performance since 1970. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slumped 13% for its worst month since the financial crisis in 2008.
In an ambitious new book, the economist Andrew Smithers rejects core “Newtonian” principles of economics, replacing them with radical departures from conventional wisdom. But as I will explain, some of Smithers’ theories fail meet the standard of empirical verification.
Investors seeking higher yields and relatively low risk, and are willing to sacrifice liquidity, will find attractive opportunities in interval funds that invest in senior secured, middle-market loans, such as those offered by Cliffwater.
The U.S. stock market is very likely in a bear market that anticipates a recession will start later this year. This means the time is now to shift portfolios from risk-on mode to risk-off before the losses get even worse. But what worked in the past when hedging against a bear market may not work now, given the ever-changing economic dynamics. It’s also important not to fall for some old myths.
Markets have already priced in a 50-basis-point hike on Wednesday, expecting the Fed will take a quicker approach in order to squash stubborn inflation. Accelerating U.S. labor costs and a resilient consumer are effectively giving the central bank the green light to raise interest rates by a half-point next week to tamp down price pressures.
My good friend Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory has written what I think is one of his most powerful letters ever. He’s basically saying the Fed just isn’t going to make it. I wish I had written it. He is such a wordsmith. With that, let’s turn it over to Ben.
The most challenging financial event for investors in the coming decade will be the repricing of securities to valuations that imply adequate long-term returns, following more than a decade of reckless and intentional Fed-induced yield-seeking speculation.
Russia’s tragic invasion of Ukraine has layered on existing supply imbalances, causing geopolitical uncertainty and a global energy shock.
The Bank of Canada embarked on a swift tightening path, but secular forces still weigh on the longer-run interest rate outlook.
Our view is that the equity market is in a tug of war between a good earnings tailwind and a modest valuation headwind.
I will present several studies that explain the broad increase in online video usage, along with “how-to” instructions.
The world’s richest person proved the naysayers, including himself, wrong Monday when he clinched a deal to buy Twitter Inc. for about $44 billion, using one of the biggest leveraged buyout deals in history to take private a 16-year-old social networking platform that has become a hub of public discourse and a flashpoint in the debate over online free speech.
The successive financial bailouts of the past few decades, necessary as they were, have created a growing expectation: Whenever there’s distress in markets, central banks must step in. Once focused narrowly on traditional banks, they’ve provided emergency lending to prop up markets ranging from Treasuries to high-yield corporate debt.
“Banks are forever going to be trying to play catchup,” said Michael Moro, CEO of digital currency prime brokerage Genesis. “Crypto is going to move way faster than banks can. We have every bank in the world pretty much having some sort of crypto, blockchain working group.”
Your firm’s digital messaging and visual expression must all align with your ideal clients’ needs, goals and objectives. Here is how four top advisors achieved that goal.
On May 29, Colombia could elect its very first leftist president should Gustavo Petro receive a majority of the vote. The former congressman and mayor of the capital city of Bogotá, Petro is an unabashed admirer of and Hugo Chávez.
Hire before you need help. You’ll win no awards for all the extra work you’re doing.
Viral success stories of people who used the post-pandemic stock market to trade their way out of mountains of student loan debt keep inspiring do-it-yourself investors.
An often overlooked and underutilized fixed-income alternative, preferred securities offer investors compelling diversification and income opportunities in today's volatile, rising interest rate environment. With yields and returns comparable to high-yield fixed income, today's preferred securities have evolved into a distinct and attractive income-generating asset class.
As we have noted in this space in the past, there is a lot of the world that cannot be captured by the most elegant and detailed of spreadsheets.
Leveraged and Inverse Funds
IRAs: Goldmine or Minefield
In this presentation, we provide an overview of key IRA rules, regulations and what you need to know regarding recent changes. Even more important, we show you how to leverage IRA knowledge to attract individuals with eligible rollover assets, demonstrate benefits of working with a financial professional, and influence the value of personal guidance to beat the competition.
Today’s Volatility and Where Commodities Fit in a Portfolio
Join us for an interactive webinar with abrdn as we discuss the impact world events are having on the commodities markets, and how investors can leverage this uncorrelated asset class to help minimize volatility within their portfolios. We’ll discuss the merits of commodities in today’s environment and as a long-term strategic allocation.
Don't Fight the Trend
Given the Fed's hawkish monetary policy agenda and its effect on asset prices, I thought it might be helpful to share my thoughts on Fed-based trend analysis.
A $2 Trillion Free-Fall Rattles Crypto to the Core
For a generation of alienated techies, crypto's all-for-one ethos was its biggest draw. Now panic is spreading across this universe — and that same ethos is posing what may be the biggest threat yet to its survival.
Margin Debt: Down 2.6% in May
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. The latest debt level is down 2.6% month-over-month.
A Deep Analytic Perspective of the 2022 Market Correction
I will demonstrate how financial advisors can combine behavioral finance and deep analytics to have a robust conversation with clients during financial turmoil, showing compassion and understanding on the one hand, while telling a compelling long-term story on the other hand.
An Ominous Sign for ESG Investors
Contrary to economic theory, in recent years funds with an ESG mandate have outperformed the broader market. New research shows that outperformance was caused by increased asset flows to so-called green stocks, raising the prospects for lower returns going forward.
Crypto Stocks Show Why They’re Among the Riskiest of Risk Assets
Crypto curious stock investors are taking little comfort in the rebound in the shares of companies linked to the digital-asset world in the past week, with the sector underperforming just about every other risky corner of the financial markets this year by a wide margin.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
Interest rates aren’t simply the price of borrowing money. They are also information, providing signals telling economic players what to do. Interest rates are in fact the price of time. Low interest rates don’t value time very much. Bad signals produce bad outcomes… and that’s where we are now.
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies?
If finance could be distilled into one idea, it likely would be that there should be a tradeoff between risk and reward: an investment with low risk should have a low expected return, while one that could make you rich should also be one that could lose you a lot of money. The Overnight Effect flies in the face of this core tenet.
Wall Street Faces Billion-Dollar Losses on Sinking Buyout Debt
Investment bankers in the US and Europe are bracing for potentially billions of dollars in total losses on big-ticket leveraged buyouts as they struggle to offload risky corporate debt that’s plunging in value amid a sweeping market selloff.
Heating and Cooling
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
“Economic Hurricane” – Hyperbole Or Real Possibility?
An “economic hurricane” is coming.
Private Equity’s Crisis First-Timers See Their Playbook Shredded
Private equity bosses are finding history to be a lousy guide as they hunt for clues on how to work through the turmoil in global markets.
Gold Has Been One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022 (So Far)
The yellow metal has managed to stay positive since the start of the year, skirting pressure from surging yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, nearly every other asset class has fallen into either correction or bear market territory.
Gradually Worse
Today we’ll look at some evidence this period could even be worse than the 1970s. Then we’ll read the mea culpa regrets of someone who had a big part in that drama.
Crypto Market Outlook: Risk-Off
Though we are seeing the makings of some favourable readings in many on-chain, derivatives, technical and sentiment indicators, the macro and liquidity environment moving forward remain a significant headwind for crypto assets.
15 Stocks You Asked To See
I often say that it is a market of stocks and not a stock market.
How Inflation Fuels Bargain Hunting
Late last year, investors who were clinging to the hope that inflation might be temporary took solace in the fact that real Treasury yields remained negative, a sign that bond investors might not be that worried about inflation.
Big Money in Stock Market Is In Mad Dash to Get Out of Fed’s Way
Despite a lot of confident predictions, nobody knows what will happen at the Federal Reserve Wednesday, never mind what the impact will be on markets.
How Top Firms Use Technology to Leverage Growth
What are growth-oriented firms doing and how are they thinking differently about technology?
Will the Fed’s Third Mandate Derail Markets?
Recent experience shows that a third mandate – preventing financial instability – trumps the Fed’s two congressional mandates of full employment and low inflation.
Crypto Hedge Fund’s Ominous Tweet Is Latest Shock to Market
A vague tweet by a founder of Three Arrows Capital, an influential hedge fund that has been liquidating crypto holdings as prices plummeted, is stirring fresh apprehension in an already shaken industry.
The Next Generation of Video Marketing
Here’s how financial marketers can repurpose virtual meetings and video content.
Tesla, MicroStrategy, Ark ETF Need to Capitulate Before Stocks Bottom
MicroStrategy Inc., ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund, Tesla Inc. and Twitter Inc. are what I’m watching to identify the ultimate capitulation point of this cycle.
Inflation Risk: Persistent or Transitory is the Wrong Question
Persistent … or transitory? It’s the inflation question that has been weighing on financial markets over the last year. As each economic data point trickles out, it is analyzed and re-analyzed, with that focus in mind. But it may be the wrong question to ask.
Saving For College: Start Small, But Start Now
With National 529 Day last month and graduation season underway, the cost of education is at the top of many people’s minds.
Does This CDO Come in Green? With ESG Everywhere, Buyers Beware
It started with bonds. Now even collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) come in green.
Why Some Value Strategies Struggle When Value Stocks Surge
Not all value strategies have benefited equally during value stocks’ recent outperformance versus growth stocks.
Parents Are Buying Homes for Kids Priced Out of the Housing Market
Even as the US real estate market shows signs of cooling, inflation and higher interest rates are making it difficult for young house hunters to buy properties — at least on their own.
‘Train Wreck’ Economy or Red-Hot Inflation Is Big New Bond Call
A wild year on Wall Street has traders fretting one of two extreme scenarios will engulf the $23 trillion Treasury market ahead: Either a fresh bond selloff thanks to red-hot inflation -- or a sustained rally on mounting recession risk that sends yields back toward historic lows.
Bull Market Rhymes
Howard Marks’s latest memo explores recurring investment themes to contextualize the current market correction and the bull market that preceded it. He discusses the role played by financial innovations like SPACs and cryptocurrencies and why he believes psychology, not fundamentals, primarily drives investment cycles – and likely always will.
Is Gold the Answer?
Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.
Will Corporate Credits Crack as Growth Slows?
Investors are shifting their focus from runaway inflation to slowing global growth as central banks hike rates to tame price pressures.
Your Mortgage is Not a Hedge Against Inflation
Homeowners should take a total-balance-sheet view when evaluating options for their mortgage.
No Soft Landings
The chance that all the necessary pieces will line up that way? Somewhere between slim and none, and as my dad used to say, “Slim left town.” And while my memory isn’t perfect, I don’t believe any speaker at the conference believed in the possibility of a soft landing. And even if we get one, we have serious problems that predate this inflation. They haven’t gone anywhere.
FOMC Inflation Test Coming
In January Goldman Sachs projected that the FOMC would increase the federal funds rate at every other meeting (each meeting is 6 weeks apart) starting with the March meeting.
May Jobs Report: 390K New Jobs, Beats Forecast
This morning's employment report for May showed a 390K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was above the Investing.com forecast of 325K jobs added. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%.
No Stone Unturned
We strongly believe that the traditional benchmark-led approach to investing in emerging market debt can be far from optimal.
SEC Proposals for ESG Ignore 80 Years of Financial Science
The US Securities and Exchange Commission is concerned that retail investors are being duped by “greenwashing.”
Zombie Firms Face Slow Death in US as Era of Easy Credit Ends
They are creations of easy credit, beneficiaries of central bank largesse. And now that the era of unconventional monetary policy is over, they’re facing a challenge like never before.
Relationship Marketing: Scaling the “Know, Like, Trust” Factor
How can you put the “know, like, trust” element of relationship marketing to work for your business at scale?
An Inside Look at the GDP Q1 Second Estimate
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Despite the Gray Mood, Skies Are Only Partly Cloudy
The outlook for credit amid rising inflation, monetary tightening, and war in Europe.
Growth Traps Snap Shut
What do Netflix, Peloton Interactive, Coinbase, and Palantir Technologies have in common?
The Next Crisis to Hit Markets May Be About Liquidity
Liquidity is the lifeblood of the capital markets. It is the ease at which an asset can be turned into cash without disrupting the price of that asset. This was never really a concern in the US, whose markets are prized for being the deepest, most liquid in the world. It’s one reason why the dollar is the world’s dominant reserve currency.
Russian Port Sieges ‘Declaration of War,’ UN Says
Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports is a “declaration of war” that threatens to trigger mass migration and a global food crisis, a United Nations official said, adding to the dire warnings on the opening day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Drilling Down: Oil Production Scenarios Across Countries
With economies scrambling for alternatives to Russian fossil fuels, Dina Ting, our Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, offers perspective on single-country portfolio exposure to other world oil producers.
The Right Strategy Is Critical When Investing During A Recession!
Investing during a recession can be a very difficult, and often dangerous, prospect.
How Inflation Went From Dormant To Dominant
Policymakers and forecasters were slow to change their mindset about inflation.
Money’s Many And Problematic Definitions
There’s no escaping the Federal Reserve (Fed) when it comes to investing these days.
The Case for Quality Stocks Now
While conventional wisdom says that rising interest rates are bad for stocks, it’s more accurate to say that rising rates tend to be bad for certain types of stocks.
Which Investments Worked 40 Years Ago When Inflation Was This High?
The U.S. was experiencing some of the highest inflation in its history.
Digital Asset Market Note: A “De-pegging” Soros Would Be Proud Of
This week has seen a series of rapid contractions across the digital asset ecosystem. In a space that is well-known for volatility, even this week has stood out to observers.
Global Economic Outlook: Tightening Up
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
What Does A Yellow Light Mean?
“What does a yellow light mean? Slow down!
The Fed Girds For Battle
Our weekly commentaries provide Euro Pacific Capital's latest thinking on developments in the global marketplace.
Credit: This Time Is Different?
Credit market volatility this year has been extreme.
Raghuram Rajan: Inflation, Higher Rates and Slower Growth to Come
Plan for long-term Inflation that will be fought aggressively by the Fed, higher policy rates, and slower economic growth, according to Raghuram Rajan.
Schwab Market Update: Stocks Remain Hamstrung as Conviction Continues to Cool
U.S. stocks are trading lower as another week begins on the heels of six-straight weekly losses for the S&P 500.
Crypto’s Wild Week Offers a Much-Needed Warning
Hundreds of billions of dollars in ephemeral wealth evaporated as the price of Bitcoin plunged to its lowest point since 2020, down more than 50% in about six months. The exchange Coinbase dropped to about a fifth of last year’s initial public offering price.
The Bursting of the Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles—Part II
In March of last year, we wrote an article entitled “Timing the End of the Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles”. Our conclusion for Bitcoin was that it was indeed in a bubble but that there was insufficient technical evidence at the time indicating its bursting.
Credit Where Credit Is Due: Four Common Misconceptions in Public and Private Credit Markets
Heightened market volatility has led to misconceptions about credit, in our view. We dispel four of them here.
Investing for Growth in a Decelerating World Economy
With the world facing inflationary and geopolitical hurdles, economic growth is poised to slow. In this environment, investors in growth stocks must identify companies with the right features to overcome headwinds to earnings.
Watch Out: The Fed is Removing Liquidity from the Markets
Liquidity is fading due to the Fed, and therefore volatility is on the rise. Illiquid and volatile markets are not conducive to long-term wealth generation.
Stocks and Inflation
Until recently, inflation and interest rates had been on a secular downtrend after peaking in the early 1980s.
How to Navigate Turbulent Stock Market Depends on When You Want to Retire
When stocks are plunging, checking your investment accounts is risky business. The market turbulence is jarring for younger investors, who had gotten used to the idea that stocks always go up. And for those with a bit more experience, watching hard-earned money suddenly disappear is a terrible experience.
Key Reasons Why Investor Interest in Private Markets Continues to Grow
Investor interest and participation in private markets continues to grow.
Fed ‘Not Out of Bullets’ Yet to Control Inflation: Milken Update
The Milken Institute Global Conference continues in Beverly Hills, California, bringing together investors, dealmakers, power brokers and celebrities to discuss markets and megatrends. Academics, sports stars, entrepreneurs and politicians among the thousands coming to the Beverly Hilton for the event, which runs through Wednesday.
Japanese Inflation – Liquidity Crisis in the Making (Part 2)
The BOJ is trapped. It is conducting unlimited QE to keep rates low and weaken the yen, which promotes inflation.
Retail Traders Respond to Selloff By Buying Oil, Options and Meme Stocks
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have fallen for four consecutive weeks, and the S&P’s 8.8% drop last month marked its worst April performance since 1970. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slumped 13% for its worst month since the financial crisis in 2008.
Is a Rejection of Classical Finance Justified?
In an ambitious new book, the economist Andrew Smithers rejects core “Newtonian” principles of economics, replacing them with radical departures from conventional wisdom. But as I will explain, some of Smithers’ theories fail meet the standard of empirical verification.
Private Direct Lending Offers Attractive Yields
Investors seeking higher yields and relatively low risk, and are willing to sacrifice liquidity, will find attractive opportunities in interval funds that invest in senior secured, middle-market loans, such as those offered by Cliffwater.
The Ideal Portfolio to Survive a Bear Market
The U.S. stock market is very likely in a bear market that anticipates a recession will start later this year. This means the time is now to shift portfolios from risk-on mode to risk-off before the losses get even worse. But what worked in the past when hedging against a bear market may not work now, given the ever-changing economic dynamics. It’s also important not to fall for some old myths.
Credit Markets Eye Fed Decision With $25 Billion of Sales on Tap
Markets have already priced in a 50-basis-point hike on Wednesday, expecting the Fed will take a quicker approach in order to squash stubborn inflation. Accelerating U.S. labor costs and a resilient consumer are effectively giving the central bank the green light to raise interest rates by a half-point next week to tamp down price pressures.
The Fed Is NGMI
My good friend Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory has written what I think is one of his most powerful letters ever. He’s basically saying the Fed just isn’t going to make it. I wish I had written it. He is such a wordsmith. With that, let’s turn it over to Ben.
Repricing a Market Priced for Zero
The most challenging financial event for investors in the coming decade will be the repricing of securities to valuations that imply adequate long-term returns, following more than a decade of reckless and intentional Fed-induced yield-seeking speculation.
The Transition To a Low Carbon Economy
Russia’s tragic invasion of Ukraine has layered on existing supply imbalances, causing geopolitical uncertainty and a global energy shock.
Bank of Canada: Hike More Now, Less Later
The Bank of Canada embarked on a swift tightening path, but secular forces still weigh on the longer-run interest rate outlook.
10 Predictions for 2022
Our view is that the equity market is in a tug of war between a good earnings tailwind and a modest valuation headwind.
Why You Should Incorporate Video into Your Marketing Strategy
I will present several studies that explain the broad increase in online video usage, along with “how-to” instructions.
Musk Seals $44 Billion Deal Even He Wasn’t Sure Would Succeed
The world’s richest person proved the naysayers, including himself, wrong Monday when he clinched a deal to buy Twitter Inc. for about $44 billion, using one of the biggest leveraged buyout deals in history to take private a 16-year-old social networking platform that has become a hub of public discourse and a flashpoint in the debate over online free speech.
Commodities Traders Shouldn’t Need a Taxpayer Bailout
The successive financial bailouts of the past few decades, necessary as they were, have created a growing expectation: Whenever there’s distress in markets, central banks must step in. Once focused narrowly on traditional banks, they’ve provided emergency lending to prop up markets ranging from Treasuries to high-yield corporate debt.
Wall Street Firms Make Crypto Push to Catch Up With ‘Cool Kids’
“Banks are forever going to be trying to play catchup,” said Michael Moro, CEO of digital currency prime brokerage Genesis. “Crypto is going to move way faster than banks can. We have every bank in the world pretty much having some sort of crypto, blockchain working group.”
How Four Firms Built Powerful Digital Brands
Your firm’s digital messaging and visual expression must all align with your ideal clients’ needs, goals and objectives. Here is how four top advisors achieved that goal.
Colombia at Risk of Electing Its First Socialist President
On May 29, Colombia could elect its very first leftist president should Gustavo Petro receive a majority of the vote. The former congressman and mayor of the capital city of Bogotá, Petro is an unabashed admirer of and Hugo Chávez.
Stop Acting Like You Can Do Everything
Hire before you need help. You’ll win no awards for all the extra work you’re doing.
Wannabe Traders Chase Dream of Student-Loan Payoffs Via Market Wins
Viral success stories of people who used the post-pandemic stock market to trade their way out of mountains of student loan debt keep inspiring do-it-yourself investors.
The Case For Preferred Securities in a Rising Rate Environment
An often overlooked and underutilized fixed-income alternative, preferred securities offer investors compelling diversification and income opportunities in today's volatile, rising interest rate environment. With yields and returns comparable to high-yield fixed income, today's preferred securities have evolved into a distinct and attractive income-generating asset class.
Herding the Gray Rhinos
As we have noted in this space in the past, there is a lot of the world that cannot be captured by the most elegant and detailed of spreadsheets.