Commentary

Growth Pains

In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.

Commentary

Slow Change Speeds Up

The world’s leading CEOs, politicians, and various do-gooders were in Davos, Switzerland, this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities for their own companies. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.

Commentary

The Punchbowl Is Gone

The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.

Commentary

Year of the Pause

Welcome to 2023. It’s Forecast Season on Wall Street, the time when everyone tells us what to expect for the new year. Do they really know? Of course not. Forecasters don’t know, investors know they don’t know, yet we all go through this exercise anyway.

Commentary

I Hate New Years

This is my least favorite time of the year.

Commentary

Higher for Longer

This will be my last letter of 2022. I want to use this letter as a set-up for my annual forecast issue the first week of January. That means we will touch on a variety of topics, kind of a snapshot into where my mind is today. Get ready to travel the world but let’s start at home with the Federal Reserve meeting this week.

Commentary

What History Tells Us About Buying in a Recession

There’s a lot of chatter out there about recession…

Commentary

Recession Scale

Economic news—and market reactions to it—increasingly resemble a tennis game. Spectators follow the ball back and forth, thinking something will happen but usually it doesn’t.

Commentary

The Economy Is a-Changin’

Change is constant, in the economy and everything else. We talk about it often. Yet when we talk about the economy changing, we usually mean the economy’s condition is changing—from expansion to recession, deflationary to inflationary, emerging to developing, etc. That’s different from changes in the economy’s actual structure.

Commentary

Using Silicon Valley's "Open Secret" to Buy a World-Class Tech Stock

There’s a big “open secret” in Silicon Valley that’s spreading, one that has already reached three-fourths of FANG. But the market has yet to recognize its impact on one remaining company.

Commentary

An Interview with Keith Fitz-Gerald

This week, around my trip to a far-too-cold Denver, then to Dallas, and ultimately Tulsa to spend the Thanksgiving holiday with family, Keith and I did a 45-minute "interview" via Zoom. Less an interview, perhaps, than the two old friends catching up. I was surprised how many topics Keith and I aligned on perfectly, though our few disagreements about what comes next made for a great debate.

Commentary

The Silver Lining to Investment Losses in 2022

Believe it or not, 2022 is almost over. That means it’s time to start thinking about end-of-year tax planning strategies…

Commentary

Digital Shiny Objects

Financial crises are really about trust. They tend to occur when people lose trust in assets, institutions, or people they had thought trustworthy. Whether the lost trust was a consequence of the crisis, or its cause is a different question. But they do seem to go together.

Commentary

Recession Thoughts

Early this week, with the severe inverted yield curve and other signals flashing recession, I planned to use this letter to delve into the data. Then Thursday’s CPI data convinced markets to blow the all-clear whistle.

Commentary

Gold Has Reached the Stage We All Dream About

Since starting The 10th Man in 2014, I’ve written about gold maybe a dozen times.