This is my least favorite time of the year.
Since starting The 10th Man in 2014, I’ve written about gold maybe a dozen times.
What I want to talk about today is this moral panic we’re having about inflation.
We are in the middle of a giant short squeeze, and it is going to get even bigger.
One of the world’s largest derivatives exchanges is making a dangerous play for retail investors.
I had dinner with a local friend of mine last week.
A few weeks ago, I said the bear market was over. What if it isn’t? Don’t interpret this as cold feet—it’s good to understand the other side of the argument.
You can’t randomly scroll on Twitter these days without running into predictions of an impending housing collapse.
The world does not need another take on Jackson Hole. But here we go.
19% off the lows, and people are still bearish.
Does the quality of trade execution matter in the equities market?
Don’t get me wrong — this economy is proving hard to understand. It is very strong in some respects and very weak in others.
It is my belief that the bear market is over.
Twenty years ago, people on trading floors at investment banks worked in silos.
You would think the news that Coinbase Global Inc. had entered into a partnership with BlackRock Inc. to help institutional investors manage and trade Bitcoin would energize the slumping cryptocurrency market.
When it comes to the economy, so-called soft landings are as rare as sightings of Halley’s comet.
Neel Kashkari used to be the most reliably dovish member of the FOMC.
The U.S. dollar has appreciated against every Group of 10 currency this year.
The bond market is weird, but it’s full of clues. We have 8.6% inflation, but the highest interest rates have gone recently is about 3.4%, meaning real rates were still negative to the tune of 5%. This is confusing to me and a lot of other people.
In what has become one of the worst years on record for the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index down 20%, the Solactive Roundhill Meme Index is down much more, tumbling in excess of 50%.
Last Thursday, Elizabeth Warren expressed skepticism about the Fed tightening monetary policy, saying it would make people poor.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel Wednesday, which represents a 22% drop over the past two weeks and meeting the technical definition of a bear market.
Consumer confidence has tanked, with the University of Michigan’s widely followed sentiment index at its lowest since 2011. This is incongruous with the fact that the labor market is very hot.
Liquidity is the lifeblood of the capital markets. It is the ease at which an asset can be turned into cash without disrupting the price of that asset. This was never really a concern in the US, whose markets are prized for being the deepest, most liquid in the world. It’s one reason why the dollar is the world’s dominant reserve currency.
Jay Powell may think he is Paul Volcker, but he is not Paul Volcker.
If you’ve been paying attention to prices of gold and gold mining stocks the last few weeks, you probably noticed that they go up when the stock market goes up, and they go down when the stock market goes down, limiting the usefulness of gold as a hedge. This isn’t the first time this has happened.
We are panicking over interest rates. Estimates of how high the Federal Reserve will raise its main rate to get inflation under control seem to increase daily. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note has surged 1.25 percentage points this year, inflicting historic losses on bondholders.
Interest rates are structurally set up to go higher.
Today, we’re talking about why the war in Ukraine was such a dud for the bears.
There is a genre of investment research that continuously predicts economic disaster that I call “macro doom.” It has become very popular. It seems that everyone is an expert in macroeconomics today, and they’re all predicting a bust of some kind.
Financial assets such as stocks and bonds are things that we want. Hard assets, taken to mean things along the lines of fossil fuels oil, agricultural products and other commodities, are things that we need. When the price of the things that we need go up and the price of things that we want go down, it creates economic misery.
Commodity prices have soared the last two weeks as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, drawing novice investors looking to make a quick buck. Many are already getting burned by their lack of knowledge.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is worried about a lack of oversight in how large, private companies raise capital.
There was a lot of yelling when I was there from 1999 to 2008, but there was a lot of a bank’s own capital being committed and a lot of risk being transferred. I probably did more yelling than anyone, and I got yelled at plenty. But at the end of the day, nobody took anything personally.
One of the interesting aspects of the brief selloff in stocks in late November was that breadth deteriorated markedly. The broad indexes were only down a few percentage points, but there were more than a thousand stocks making 52-week lows on a daily basis.
Young Wall Street analysts are benefitting from the war for talent among investment banks.
Robinhood Markets Inc. has been at the forefront of the democratization of finance, which is the idea that an average Joe can play in the stock market alongside the professionals.
while big, sweeping forecasts are the ones that draw the headlines, the ones to pay attention to are those that only look one to two months ahead or 10 to 20 years ahead.
One of the big criticisms of ESG is that the criteria for determining which companies are trying to do the right thing are overly broad and subjective.
All of the increased tax burden falls on the top 2%, a problem for a couple of big reasons, the author maintains.