Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend.
Last year was a good year for stocks, but not bonds. The post-2008 recovery has been spectacular, one of the best 13-year U.S. stock markets. I provide details for the entire 96 years as well as five-year and 10-year sub-periods
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.
In this article, I examine the history of 13-year returns on stocks and bonds to put the most recent 13-year period into perspective. It has indeed been extraordinary.
With both the pandemic and inflation proving longer lasting than many had anticipated, what does that mean for central bank policy in the months ahead?
Our economic experience could be driven by a con game – a hustle.
Here is how I nudge clients (sometimes not so gently) to where they should be on their portfolio.
New research confirms that investing with an environmental, social and governance (ESG) mandate does not lead to higher risk-adjusted returns. But investors will reduce exposure to climate-related risks and get the “psychic” benefit of making a positive impact for society.
A Pittsburgh insurance broker and a Richmond, Virginia forensic accountant have developed an alternative rating system for measuring the ability of life/annuity companies to keep their promises even in market crises. They call it the transparency, surplus and riskier assets ratio, or “TSR” for short.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Successful investors must answer three questions: Will we have serious inflation? Will interest rates increase? Will stock prices fall?
One of the interesting aspects of the brief selloff in stocks in late November was that breadth deteriorated markedly. The broad indexes were only down a few percentage points, but there were more than a thousand stocks making 52-week lows on a daily basis.
2021 has been a year of notable economic growth after unexpected change caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In our Economic and Market Outlook for 2022, we lay out some of the “known unknowns” we believe could significantly affect the investing landscape...
High inflation and strong economic data may make the Fed hurry to conclude asset purchases.
Wall Street likes to warn that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, but when it comes to the traditional 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds, it kind of has. Persistent inflation could bring that to an end.
This third quarter update of Global Investment Report’s 18th annual global hedge fund survey highlights some of the remarkable distortions revealed across markets, while reporting on the current sentiment of leading investors and tracking how the top 50 funds have performed through the first three quarters of 2021.
Portfolio manager Michael Fredericks reflects on markets and investing to generate income while managing risk over the last decade.
Expected returns are derived in two distinct ways: from Federal Reserve actions, since it is manipulating bond prices, and from momentum, which is driving stock prices. How long can both last?
Speculative psychology is the only thing standing between an hypervalued market that continues to advance and a hypervalued market that drops like a rock. Our best gauge of that psychology - the uniformity of market internals - remains divergent enough to keep market conditions in a trap-door situation.
It’s well-studied that factors like debt and financial uncertainty impact the way people feel about retirement and prepare for it. In this series, BlackRock explores insights from our 2021 DC Pulse research and additional work with the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) to recognize inequities and help find ways to build a better retirement for all.
The fate of the global economy and stock markets rests on the successes of just a few megafirms that reside in the U.S. But have the prices of the world’s largest companies been bid up beyond what is reasonable and fair?
The 60/40 is not dead, will never die, and you can’t kill it. That won’t stop the financial media and investment firms from staging mock funerals.
Is inflation truly transitory? Will central banks start to tighten the policy reins? Will earnings continue to boost equity valuations? Heading into year end, the K2 Advisors team ponders these and other questions in its fourth quarter (Q4) hedge-fund strategy outlook.
Reducing exposure to equities and bonds to accommodate non-correlated assets or alternative strategies may reduce risk, but at the expense of lower potential returns and painful tracking error. We introduce a novel investment concept, accessible to all investors, which is designed to seek higher returns with less risk and low tracking error by using new products which, in combination, can provide more than $1 of exposure for every dollar invested. The proposed solution harnesses the full potential of traditional portfolios plus the opportunity for higher returns and risk reduction from non-correlated investments. We show how to maximize “Return Stacking™” opportunities by choosing alternative fund managers already engaging in capital-efficient strategies.
Money supply has quintupled in the past year, and because of this money printing, inflation is here for the long run. Inflation will force increases in interest rates.
Investors and financial advisors alike want to understand the fascinating trends that are transforming the investment industry.
Last year, after the March market correction, I warned baby boomers against buying the dip. Since the market rebounded 100%, that was bad advice. But I double down on that advice today for the same reason.
Pooled employer plans (PEPs) are the latest 401(k) rage, but they can be an asset or a liability. The difference is in their qualified default investment alternative (QDIA).
The U.S. stock market is thriving, while China’s deteriorates. China could intervene to limit stock market losses, but it is not. Is China purposely losing a battle to win a war?
After several strong quarters for value stocks, the last few months have seen a sharp reversal in favor of growth.
For the third year in a row, the top 50 hedge fund managers, relying on a variety of strategies, generated net returns comparable to the S&P 500 with significantly less risk and performance that was largely independent of the market. Hedged equity, multistrategy, and global macro funds led the way with more than half the funds in the top 50 managing less than $1 billion.
With this video I am presenting 20 A rated or better attractively valued dividend growth stocks with low debt and above-market yields.
Clorox reported what many are describing as disastrous earnings for the 4th fiscal quarter 2021.
The stock market and economy are hanging by a thread over an economic abyss. That thread is zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).
I provide guidance on the “equity-like” risk of buffer and floor strategies when included in a diversified portfolio, assuming an S&P 500 underlying index.
The impacts of passive investing are not as well understood as they should be.
Heading into the second half of the year, pandemic concerns are not completely in the rear-view mirror.
“It’s different this time” is usually not true, but this time it is. Will we get amplifying extremes, or returns toward average? The feasible and likely scenario spells disaster.
We’ve had serious inflation, but don’t know it because the barometer we use to measure it ignores security price inflation.
Two Congressional chairs have authorized a review of target-date funds (TDFs). The last such review was in 2009, and all that changed was that risk increased. It would be a shame if this initiative failed to produce results.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is 1.62%, and that is up approximately 130 basis points from its low of 32 basis points in March of last year. Moreover, the central debate among economists is whether the U.S. faces a new regime of inflation and higher rates, or whether inflation will be only transitory, as the Fed expects. This context of volatility and uncertainty about interest rates makes the job for advisors who want to generate steady income for their clients exceedingly difficult. Here to discuss one solution to that problem is Scott Kefer of Victory Capital.
Sir John Templeton famously said that “this time is different” are the four most dangerous words for investors.
The GMO Asset Allocation Team has released its latest 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts through May 2021 (click to view online or see chart below).
Managed futures strategies have historically delivered attractive returns over the long run with low equity correlations.
A proposal by the Biden administration would remove the preferential tax considerations for long-term holders of stocks. In so doing, it will cause investors to favor active ETFs over traditional actively managed mutual funds.
International banking regulators’ proposal to classify Bitcoin as the riskiest of assets dragged cryptocurrencies further into the mainstream financial world.
With only a few brief downturns in an otherwise upward trend in the U.S. equity market since the Global Financial Crisis, declining interest rates have pulled forward the net present value of distant earnings and propelled growth stocks (and the market as a whole) higher.
Generally, when inflations expectations are rising, we see value stocks favored more than growth stocks.
Who isn’t baffled by the continuing run-up in stock prices? Behavioral scientists. They explain that we have a host of biases that make us irrational. Here are the reasons that we have a stock market bubble, presented in two tables.
The pandemic forced us all to communicate via Zoom.
The switch on the U.S. economy is readying to come fully “on,” more than a year after the global pandemic forced abrupt closures around the world and across industries.
Retirement planning has evolved from a singular focus on savings to ensuring that account values provide income for life. Multiple generations of DC plan participants are concerned that they’ll outlive their retirement savings, and they’re turning to plan sponsors for solutions.
It is a particularly good time to invest in the commodities markets.
Today marks 100 days since President Biden was sworn into office, a time often referred to as the ‘honeymoon period’ for a new president’s tenure.
For those who elect to take passive strategies, like TDFs, assess your risk profile and that of the markets and invest accordingly.
As the end of the pandemic came into view in the U.S. and the new administration’s stimulus plan became more probable, expectations for economic growth and inflation have increased.
In part 1 of this two-part series on dividend stocks I covered 2 utility stocks, 4 REITs, 1 information technology company, and 2 financials.
Last week I posted the video “10 Dividend Growth Stocks To Beat The Market” In that video I was primarily focused on investing in faster growing attractively valued dividend growth stocks for high total return and potential market beating returns.
With a broad-based economic reopening coming closer into focus, investors are planning for the next stage in the cycle.
We forecast a strong global recovery in 2021 amid significant fiscal support, accommodative monetary policy, diminishing lockdowns, and accelerating vaccinations.
My question, as always, is whether we’re measuring inflation accurately. What if we’re doing it all wrong? As investors, we want to make decisions based on the best available data, so what should we do if the data is incomplete or flawed?
The firm behind a growing set of exchange-traded funds that cushion losses is offering a new suite of tools for bulls to bet on another stock surge.
The government’s COVID relief programs have cost $5.2 trillion, more than World War II, which cost $4.7 trillion. Those mountains of money will cause inflation, raise interest rates and reduce in stock prices.
Fed Chair Jay Powell is giving conflicting guidance to bond investors.
Interest rates have never been lower, but that’s beginning to change and it’s causing a fuss. You’d think investors would be relieved by a return to a more normal situation. But be careful.
New research shows that higher employee satisfaction leads to higher equity returns. That reinforces previous research showing that ESG principles should be an important aspect of advisors’ due diligence in fund selection.
Read the latest model portfolio market insights to see where BlackRock’s Multi-Asset Income team see potential risks and opportunities across the landscape.
It would appear that nothing can pop the stock market bubble, but there is one straightforward “pin” that will do the job – rising interest rates.
As more plan participants worry about retirement income security, demand for guaranteed income solutions is growing—and plan sponsors are pondering the options.
Target date funds should be designed to reduce the risk of rash selling.
The GMO Asset Allocation Team has released its latest 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts through January 2021.
Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.
I offer 15 explanations for the bubble in stock prices and a single explanation for the one in bond prices. Those bubbles could deflate for any of 10 reasons I also identify, severely diminishing the retirement savings of baby boomers.
Factor-based models are often criticized for data mining. One way to address that charge is with “out-of-sample” testing over longer time frames. But that takes time. New research provides an alternative out-of-sample test – using emerging-market bonds.
Recent volatility and high valuations underscore the need to be selective, but risk premiums still justify a moderately pro-risk stance, in our view.
Having strongly underperformed the wider stock market in 2020, high-dividend stocks have shown early signs of a rebound in recent weeks.
I don’t say this often, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is wrong. Regular readers of our investor letters and other publications will recall that we regularly cite Chairman Powell as doing the best he can with the levers he has while arguing correctly for others to do their part.
Inflation will likely heat up in the coming months, but not to worrying levels.
Heading into 2021, advisors face numerous headwinds: a potential return of inflation, sky high equity prices, possible negative returns on bonds. Yet advisors with retail clients have few good options to protect against these risks, and many that embraced alternative mutual funds and ETFs have been disappointed with low returns, high fees and large drawdowns.
The questions advisors are asking today is:
How can retail investors gain exposure to leading hedge funds yet with the client-friendly features of an ETF? Given the difficulties for many hedge funds in the 2010s, will hedge funds will return to the Golden Age of the 2000s, when they generated alpha through two bear markets?
There are two incorrect assumptions in most stock return forecasts.
There is no easy answer for income investors whose expectations and behaviors need to be adjusted accordingly.
The 2020s are going to be about rifle shots, not the shotgun approach of index funds.
The new year brings a new set of opportunities for savvy investors who are willing to dig beneath the headlines to uncover lesser-known companies taking advantage of early-stage megatrends. I am here today with the founder of Changebridge Capital, a new company that offers two actively managed ETFs built to capitalize on those early-stage megatrends.
Rescues by the Federal Reserve and aggressive monetary policies have helped stock and bond investors, but the degree of money printing will be paid for by future generations.
Our K2 Advisors team is optimistic about the opportunity set in the year ahead, and thinks that active management alpha will be key to success in 2021. Brooks Ritchey and Robert Christian provide the team’s first-quarter hedge-fund strategy outlook.
PIMCO’s “Income to Outcome” framework offers strategies to navigate retirement’s stumbling blocks.
Venezuela’s hyperinflation, Japan’s experiment in MMT and China’s rise to global leadership carry ominous lessons for the U.S. and investors in its markets.
Despite extensive economic and human costs, 2020 may be a turning point in multiple ways.
Below is the 95-year history of stock and bond returns shown in four illustrations.
Specialty Investments
1Q 2022 Outlooks from the Calamos Investment Team
Given the many forces shaping the economy and markets, 2022 will be a stock picker’s—and a bond picker’s—market. Prices are indeed stretched in pockets of the market, but many areas offer attractive potential supported by compelling fundamentals and exposure to growth themes.
Let The Wild Rumpus Begin
All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend.
Nine Charts Summarizing the 96-Year Capital Markets History
Last year was a good year for stocks, but not bonds. The post-2008 recovery has been spectacular, one of the best 13-year U.S. stock markets. I provide details for the entire 96 years as well as five-year and 10-year sub-periods
Investing in a Fast‑Moving Cycle
Uncertainty has become an ongoing theme in markets, economies, and communities everywhere, and in this environment, PIMCO investment professionals gathered – virtually, once again – for our recent Cyclical Forum.
Lucky 13-Year Investment Returns
In this article, I examine the history of 13-year returns on stocks and bonds to put the most recent 13-year period into perspective. It has indeed been extraordinary.
K2 Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook: First Quarter 2022
With both the pandemic and inflation proving longer lasting than many had anticipated, what does that mean for central bank policy in the months ahead?
Are We Being Hustled? A Mental “What If”
Our economic experience could be driven by a con game – a hustle.
The 10 Toughest Client Objections to Overcome
Here is how I nudge clients (sometimes not so gently) to where they should be on their portfolio.
The Non-Performance Benefits of ESG Investing
New research confirms that investing with an environmental, social and governance (ESG) mandate does not lead to higher risk-adjusted returns. But investors will reduce exposure to climate-related risks and get the “psychic” benefit of making a positive impact for society.
A Revolt Against PE-Led Annuity Issuers
A Pittsburgh insurance broker and a Richmond, Virginia forensic accountant have developed an alternative rating system for measuring the ability of life/annuity companies to keep their promises even in market crises. They call it the transparency, surplus and riskier assets ratio, or “TSR” for short.
NewsLetter - December 2021
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
A Brief Quiz on the Economy
Successful investors must answer three questions: Will we have serious inflation? Will interest rates increase? Will stock prices fall?
The Stock Market Is Suffering From Bad Breadth
One of the interesting aspects of the brief selloff in stocks in late November was that breadth deteriorated markedly. The broad indexes were only down a few percentage points, but there were more than a thousand stocks making 52-week lows on a daily basis.
2022 Economic & Market Outlook
2021 has been a year of notable economic growth after unexpected change caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In our Economic and Market Outlook for 2022, we lay out some of the “known unknowns” we believe could significantly affect the investing landscape...
The Fed's Taper: Accelerando
High inflation and strong economic data may make the Fed hurry to conclude asset purchases.
Inflation Is the Biggest Threat to the Bedrock 60/40 Portfolio
Wall Street likes to warn that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, but when it comes to the traditional 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds, it kind of has. Persistent inflation could bring that to an end.
Mind the Gap – Q3 Hedge Fund Performance Review
This third quarter update of Global Investment Report’s 18th annual global hedge fund survey highlights some of the remarkable distortions revealed across markets, while reporting on the current sentiment of leading investors and tracking how the top 50 funds have performed through the first three quarters of 2021.
Three Things That Have Surprised Me – And One Thing I Wouldn’t Change
Portfolio manager Michael Fredericks reflects on markets and investing to generate income while managing risk over the last decade.
The Dubious Assumptions Underlying Stock and Bond Prices
Expected returns are derived in two distinct ways: from Federal Reserve actions, since it is manipulating bond prices, and from momentum, which is driving stock prices. How long can both last?
When Bubble Meets Trouble
Speculative psychology is the only thing standing between an hypervalued market that continues to advance and a hypervalued market that drops like a rock. Our best gauge of that psychology - the uniformity of market internals - remains divergent enough to keep market conditions in a trap-door situation.
Higher Interest: Debt Influences Demand for Secure Retirement Income
It’s well-studied that factors like debt and financial uncertainty impact the way people feel about retirement and prepare for it. In this series, BlackRock explores insights from our 2021 DC Pulse research and additional work with the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) to recognize inequities and help find ways to build a better retirement for all.
The Unprecedented Concentration Risk in U.S. Equities
The fate of the global economy and stock markets rests on the successes of just a few megafirms that reside in the U.S. But have the prices of the world’s largest companies been bid up beyond what is reasonable and fair?
Why the 60/40 is Not Dead, Will Never Die, and Why You Can't Kill It
The 60/40 is not dead, will never die, and you can’t kill it. That won’t stop the financial media and investment firms from staging mock funerals.
K2 Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2021
Is inflation truly transitory? Will central banks start to tighten the policy reins? Will earnings continue to boost equity valuations? Heading into year end, the K2 Advisors team ponders these and other questions in its fourth quarter (Q4) hedge-fund strategy outlook.
Return Stacking: Strategies for Overcoming A Low Return Environment
Reducing exposure to equities and bonds to accommodate non-correlated assets or alternative strategies may reduce risk, but at the expense of lower potential returns and painful tracking error. We introduce a novel investment concept, accessible to all investors, which is designed to seek higher returns with less risk and low tracking error by using new products which, in combination, can provide more than $1 of exposure for every dollar invested. The proposed solution harnesses the full potential of traditional portfolios plus the opportunity for higher returns and risk reduction from non-correlated investments. We show how to maximize “Return Stacking™” opportunities by choosing alternative fund managers already engaging in capital-efficient strategies.
Going Up! Interest Rates Must Increase
Money supply has quintupled in the past year, and because of this money printing, inflation is here for the long run. Inflation will force increases in interest rates.
Digital Trends Impacting Investors and Advisors
Investors and financial advisors alike want to understand the fascinating trends that are transforming the investment industry.
Don’t Be a Dip and Buy the Dip
Last year, after the March market correction, I warned baby boomers against buying the dip. Since the market rebounded 100%, that was bad advice. But I double down on that advice today for the same reason.
Pooled Employer Plans (PEPs) Can Be Dangerous
Pooled employer plans (PEPs) are the latest 401(k) rage, but they can be an asset or a liability. The difference is in their qualified default investment alternative (QDIA).
What is China Doing to Its Stock Market and Why? A Hypothesis.
The U.S. stock market is thriving, while China’s deteriorates. China could intervene to limit stock market losses, but it is not. Is China purposely losing a battle to win a war?
2Q 2021 GMO Quarterly Letter
After several strong quarters for value stocks, the last few months have seen a sharp reversal in favor of growth.
2021 Survey of the Top 50 Hedge Funds
For the third year in a row, the top 50 hedge fund managers, relying on a variety of strategies, generated net returns comparable to the S&P 500 with significantly less risk and performance that was largely independent of the market. Hedged equity, multistrategy, and global macro funds led the way with more than half the funds in the top 50 managing less than $1 billion.
20 Dividend Growth Stocks A Rated Or Better Attractively Valued Blue-Chip
With this video I am presenting 20 A rated or better attractively valued dividend growth stocks with low debt and above-market yields.
Clorox Crashed: Buy, Sell or Hold?
Clorox reported what many are describing as disastrous earnings for the 4th fiscal quarter 2021.
Hanging by a ZIRP Thread
The stock market and economy are hanging by a thread over an economic abyss. That thread is zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).
The Risk of Buffer and Floor Strategies
I provide guidance on the “equity-like” risk of buffer and floor strategies when included in a diversified portfolio, assuming an S&P 500 underlying index.
The Consequences of Passive Investing
The impacts of passive investing are not as well understood as they should be.
K2 Advisors Third Quarter Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook
Heading into the second half of the year, pandemic concerns are not completely in the rear-view mirror.
Five Ways It’s Different This Time
“It’s different this time” is usually not true, but this time it is. Will we get amplifying extremes, or returns toward average? The feasible and likely scenario spells disaster.
Inflation is Looming and Hiding in Plain View
We’ve had serious inflation, but don’t know it because the barometer we use to measure it ignores security price inflation.
The GAO Takes on Target-Date Funds
Two Congressional chairs have authorized a review of target-date funds (TDFs). The last such review was in 2009, and all that changed was that risk increased. It would be a shame if this initiative failed to produce results.
Creative Solutions to Generate Income for Clients
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is 1.62%, and that is up approximately 130 basis points from its low of 32 basis points in March of last year. Moreover, the central debate among economists is whether the U.S. faces a new regime of inflation and higher rates, or whether inflation will be only transitory, as the Fed expects. This context of volatility and uncertainty about interest rates makes the job for advisors who want to generate steady income for their clients exceedingly difficult. Here to discuss one solution to that problem is Scott Kefer of Victory Capital.
Quick Thoughts: Sourcing Income in Bonds, Real Estate, and Multi-Asset Solutions
Sir John Templeton famously said that “this time is different” are the four most dangerous words for investors.
GMO 7-year Asset Class Forecast: May 2021
The GMO Asset Allocation Team has released its latest 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts through May 2021 (click to view online or see chart below).
PIMCO Trends: Managed Futures: Seeking Diversification and Returns
Managed futures strategies have historically delivered attractive returns over the long run with low equity correlations.
Proposed Tax Law Changes Will Favor Active ETFs
A proposal by the Biden administration would remove the preferential tax considerations for long-term holders of stocks. In so doing, it will cause investors to favor active ETFs over traditional actively managed mutual funds.
Bitcoin Plan Roils Crypto World Seeking Regulatory Clarity
International banking regulators’ proposal to classify Bitcoin as the riskiest of assets dragged cryptocurrencies further into the mainstream financial world.
Real World Overlay Solutions in Challenging Times
With only a few brief downturns in an otherwise upward trend in the U.S. equity market since the Global Financial Crisis, declining interest rates have pulled forward the net present value of distant earnings and propelled growth stocks (and the market as a whole) higher.
Inflation Is A Boon For Value Equities
Generally, when inflations expectations are rising, we see value stocks favored more than growth stocks.
Behavioral Finance Explains the Stock Market Bubble
Who isn’t baffled by the continuing run-up in stock prices? Behavioral scientists. They explain that we have a host of biases that make us irrational. Here are the reasons that we have a stock market bubble, presented in two tables.
Zooming To Booming
The pandemic forced us all to communicate via Zoom.
One Hot Economy, Two Burning Questions on Value and Income
The switch on the U.S. economy is readying to come fully “on,” more than a year after the global pandemic forced abrupt closures around the world and across industries.
The Current State of Retirement Income
Retirement planning has evolved from a singular focus on savings to ensuring that account values provide income for life. Multiple generations of DC plan participants are concerned that they’ll outlive their retirement savings, and they’re turning to plan sponsors for solutions.
The Recovery will be Positive for Commodities
It is a particularly good time to invest in the commodities markets.
Weekly Investment Strategy
Today marks 100 days since President Biden was sworn into office, a time often referred to as the ‘honeymoon period’ for a new president’s tenure.
Are You Playing Roulette with Target Date Funds?
For those who elect to take passive strategies, like TDFs, assess your risk profile and that of the markets and invest accordingly.
Which Way is Up?
As the end of the pandemic came into view in the U.S. and the new administration’s stimulus plan became more probable, expectations for economic growth and inflation have increased.
17 Dividend Stocks for High Retirement Income: Part 2
In part 1 of this two-part series on dividend stocks I covered 2 utility stocks, 4 REITs, 1 information technology company, and 2 financials.
17 Dividend Stocks for High Retirement Income: Part 1
Last week I posted the video “10 Dividend Growth Stocks To Beat The Market” In that video I was primarily focused on investing in faster growing attractively valued dividend growth stocks for high total return and potential market beating returns.
K2 Advisors Second Quarter Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook
With a broad-based economic reopening coming closer into focus, investors are planning for the next stage in the cycle.
Dealing With an Inflation Head Fake
We forecast a strong global recovery in 2021 amid significant fiscal support, accommodative monetary policy, diminishing lockdowns, and accelerating vaccinations.
What If We're Measuring Inflation All Wrong?
My question, as always, is whether we’re measuring inflation accurately. What if we’re doing it all wrong? As investors, we want to make decisions based on the best available data, so what should we do if the data is incomplete or flawed?
'Accelerated’ ETFs Will Double Benchmark Gains, Cap Losses
The firm behind a growing set of exchange-traded funds that cushion losses is offering a new suite of tools for bulls to bet on another stock surge.
COVID has Cost More than World War II and We Haven’t Paid the True Price Yet
The government’s COVID relief programs have cost $5.2 trillion, more than World War II, which cost $4.7 trillion. Those mountains of money will cause inflation, raise interest rates and reduce in stock prices.
The Fed’s Mixed Messaging on the Yield Curve
Fed Chair Jay Powell is giving conflicting guidance to bond investors.
Why All the Fuss About a Return Toward Normalcy?
Interest rates have never been lower, but that’s beginning to change and it’s causing a fuss. You’d think investors would be relieved by a return to a more normal situation. But be careful.
ESG, Employee Satisfaction and Equity Returns
New research shows that higher employee satisfaction leads to higher equity returns. That reinforces previous research showing that ESG principles should be an important aspect of advisors’ due diligence in fund selection.
Dividend Stock Disparity Creates Opportunity
Read the latest model portfolio market insights to see where BlackRock’s Multi-Asset Income team see potential risks and opportunities across the landscape.
COVID-19 Attacks the Stock Market
It would appear that nothing can pop the stock market bubble, but there is one straightforward “pin” that will do the job – rising interest rates.
As Retirement Income Needs Grow, DC Plan Sponsors Weigh Solutions
As more plan participants worry about retirement income security, demand for guaranteed income solutions is growing—and plan sponsors are pondering the options.
What the Pandemic Taught Us About Target Date Funds
Target date funds should be designed to reduce the risk of rash selling.
GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecast: January 2021
The GMO Asset Allocation Team has released its latest 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts through January 2021.
Spectate or Speculate
Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.
15 Explanations for the Bubble in Stock Prices
I offer 15 explanations for the bubble in stock prices and a single explanation for the one in bond prices. Those bubbles could deflate for any of 10 reasons I also identify, severely diminishing the retirement savings of baby boomers.
An Out-of-Sample Test for Factor-Based Strategies
Factor-based models are often criticized for data mining. One way to address that charge is with “out-of-sample” testing over longer time frames. But that takes time. New research provides an alternative out-of-sample test – using emerging-market bonds.
Risk Within Reason
Recent volatility and high valuations underscore the need to be selective, but risk premiums still justify a moderately pro-risk stance, in our view.
Will High-Dividend Payers Make a Comeback in 2021?
Having strongly underperformed the wider stock market in 2020, high-dividend stocks have shown early signs of a rebound in recent weeks.
The Fed’s Blindspot
I don’t say this often, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is wrong. Regular readers of our investor letters and other publications will recall that we regularly cite Chairman Powell as doing the best he can with the levers he has while arguing correctly for others to do their part.
Some Worries May Be Inflated
Inflation will likely heat up in the coming months, but not to worrying levels.
Hedge Funds Are Back – Can Allocators Get Hedge Fund Alpha in an ETF?
Heading into 2021, advisors face numerous headwinds: a potential return of inflation, sky high equity prices, possible negative returns on bonds. Yet advisors with retail clients have few good options to protect against these risks, and many that embraced alternative mutual funds and ETFs have been disappointed with low returns, high fees and large drawdowns.
The questions advisors are asking today is:
How can retail investors gain exposure to leading hedge funds yet with the client-friendly features of an ETF? Given the difficulties for many hedge funds in the 2010s, will hedge funds will return to the Golden Age of the 2000s, when they generated alpha through two bear markets?
Why 2021 Stock Market Forecasts Are Too Optimistic
There are two incorrect assumptions in most stock return forecasts.
What to Do About the High Cost of Investment Income
There is no easy answer for income investors whose expectations and behaviors need to be adjusted accordingly.
Forecast 2021: The Stock Market
The 2020s are going to be about rifle shots, not the shotgun approach of index funds.
Minisode: The Early-Stage Megatrends that Will Drive Outsized Returns
The new year brings a new set of opportunities for savvy investors who are willing to dig beneath the headlines to uncover lesser-known companies taking advantage of early-stage megatrends. I am here today with the founder of Changebridge Capital, a new company that offers two actively managed ETFs built to capitalize on those early-stage megatrends.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of Federal Reserve Rescues
Rescues by the Federal Reserve and aggressive monetary policies have helped stock and bond investors, but the degree of money printing will be paid for by future generations.
K2 Advisors First-Quarter Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook
Our K2 Advisors team is optimistic about the opportunity set in the year ahead, and thinks that active management alpha will be key to success in 2021. Brooks Ritchey and Robert Christian provide the team’s first-quarter hedge-fund strategy outlook.
Don’t Drop the Baton in Retirement: Managing the “Handoff” From Saving to Spending
PIMCO’s “Income to Outcome” framework offers strategies to navigate retirement’s stumbling blocks.
Ominous Lessons from Venezuela, Japan and China
Venezuela’s hyperinflation, Japan’s experiment in MMT and China’s rise to global leadership carry ominous lessons for the U.S. and investors in its markets.
The Turning Point?
Despite extensive economic and human costs, 2020 may be a turning point in multiple ways.
The 95-Year History Stock and Bond Returns in Four Pictures
Below is the 95-year history of stock and bond returns shown in four illustrations.