The news coming out of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was a reference in the statement that the Federal Reserve expected to begin to implement its balance sheet normalization program “relatively soon,” which we (along with many market participants) took to mean at the upcoming September meeting.
It’s time again for RBA’s annual ‘Charts for the beach,’ where we highlight what consensus is currently missing.
The Federal Reserve is likely to begin normalizing its balance sheet in 2017. Why hasn’t this news rattled the bond market?
Investing based on headlines and political promises is rarely beneficial to one’s portfolio. It’s dispassionately investing for fundamentals that continue to drive the markets.
The second quarter of 2017 closely mirrored the first. Global markets continued positive returns for many strategic domestic and global equity investors.
The Federal Reserve hiked rates as expected at its meeting on 13–14 June 2017, and it made news by providing important details about its plans to normalize its balance sheet. However, one crucial detail the Fed did not provide: when it will commence that process of balance sheet normalization.
Many investors seem to be stuck in the middle of the false dichotomy between active and passive investing. At RBA, we argue it’s much more important for investors to ascertain which active or passive portfolio to buy and when to own it.
With the probability of recession sometime in the next five years around 70% in our view, now may be a critical time to prepare for when the cyclical tailwind that began last year begins to fade. Over the next five years, the global economy may undergo five significant pivots in the direction and scope of monetary, fiscal, trade, geopolitical and exchange rate policies. Are investors too optimistic about the future economy? We address this and other crucial questions in PIMCO’s 2017 Secular Outlook – our long-term view for the global economy and markets.
The minutes of the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, released Wednesday, provided (as expected) more information on the committee’s thinking about how and when to start the policy of normalizing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.
Volatility is remarkably low today, but it’s not likely to stay that way. Alternatives have the potential to provide diversification and reduce risk when markets get stormy again. But what’s the best way to design an alternatives allocation?