Commentary

Q1 2022: Tug of War

An unusually strong tug of war between economic forces is playing out in global markets, with a booming economy and low unemployment offset by the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and expanded inflation. Expectations over the timing and magnitude of Fed interest rate increases rapidly evolved as clarity began to emerge around central bank responses to inflation.

Commentary

Q4 2021: “Tracking the Recovery: Inflationary Pressure a Symptom Not the Cause”

The year ended on a highly upbeat tone for investors as equities rose to new heights against a backdrop of inflation and a prolonged pandemic

Commentary

Q3 2021 Market Perspectives: "A Global Shift"

After beginning the quarter on a relatively upbeat note, familiar themes returned as fears of inflation, ambiguity over the end of the pandemic, and uncertainty about the future of Chinese capitalism raised concerns for investors.

Commentary

Returning to Normal?

As the global economy continued to reopen and the recovery gained speed, markets reached new highs.

Commentary

Which Way is Up?

As the end of the pandemic came into view in the U.S. and the new administration’s stimulus plan became more probable, expectations for economic growth and inflation have increased.

Commentary

The Turning Point?

Despite extensive economic and human costs, 2020 may be a turning point in multiple ways.

Commentary

A Fragile Recovery

The U.S. economy improved significantly this quarter, but investors continue to face several serious risks. In late September, confirmed COVID-19 cases were rising worldwide, and the pandemic may intensify as winter approaches. A combative U.S. presidential election looms.

Commentary

Market Perspectives Q2 2020: An Uncertain Rebound

A key lesson of 2020 is the importance of staying invested even during times of high volatility. We believe that an appropriately risk-targeted, globally diversified portfolio is as important as ever. Maintaining an optimally risk-controlled portfolio is most desirable.

Commentary

Instrument Flight Rules

On January 1st, China informed the American government that a new pathogen, soon to be called the coronavirus, had been discovered in Wuhan, China. Its toxicity and infection rates were still unknown but soon proved to be far more virulent than many prior viruses.

Commentary

Q4 2019: "New Highs"

It has been a great year for equity investors. The S&P 500 index posted a 31% annual return, the Dow 25%, and the NASDAQ a spectacular 39%. More than $6T of equity paper wealth was created for domestic investors this year alone.

Commentary

New Highs

It has been a great year for equity investors. The S&P 500 index posted a 31% annual return, the Dow 25%, and the NASDAQ a spectacular 39%. More than $6T of equity paper wealth was created for domestic investors this year alone.

Commentary

Economics in the Time of Twitter

It has been a good year for U.S. investors. The global economic slowdown and geopolitical turmoil created a nearly irreversible thirst for super safe assets...

Commentary

Global Monetary Policy: A Theory in Progress

At the moment, there are roughly 15T dollars of debt “earning” negative interest rates in the global economy, a state not anticipated in modern macroeconomic theory first proposed by Keynes and Samuelson during the 30s and 40s.

Commentary

Trump Economics

The quarter was a good one for investors, overcoming fears of an all-out U.S.-China trade war. The S&P 500 index rose roughly 4% for the quarter and was up ~17% for the year. It was the market’s best first half performance since 1997 and extended the more than decade long bull market.

Commentary

Turnabout

U.S. stocks experienced their biggest quarterly gains in nearly a decade. The S&P 500 completed its best quarter since 2009, gaining 14%, while the S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 gained 14% and 12%, respectively.