The market has been highly tuned to news from the Fed or developments in artificial intelligence technology to set expectations.
After two years of fighting inflation amid fears of recession, markets and policy makers appear unified in their sanguine outlook. While interest rate increases designed to slow economies may well be nearing an end, markets are never without risk.
After three quarters of improving economic outlook amid increasing expectations for a painless decline in global inflation, markets and pundits alike have become less optimistic about a soft landing as they reacted to frustration from the Fed.
In a quarter filled with talk of potential Treasury default and the second largest bank failure in U.S. history, markets chose to look forward. This was a quarter of AI captivating markets.
After beginning the quarter on a relatively upbeat note, familiar themes returned as fears of inflation, ambiguity over the end of the pandemic, and uncertainty about the future of Chinese capitalism raised concerns for investors.
As the end of the pandemic came into view in the U.S. and the new administration’s stimulus plan became more probable, expectations for economic growth and inflation have increased.
The law of gravity states that what goes up must come down. But the laws of economics say that investors generally are rewarded for staying invested.
Markets began the year as they had been over much of 2017, but changed their tone over the quarter—volatility reemerged, interest rates rose, the dollar fell, and equity markets retreated.